Latest / Crosstabs / Is the GOP primary for Governor over? with J.L. Wilson

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Is the GOP primary for Governor over? with J.L. Wilson · Crosstabs

0:00
SPEAKER_02: Either way, we're recording now, so I guess we might as well.
0:23
SPEAKER_02: Brian, I just need one help with prep on this.
0:25
SPEAKER_02: What's a poll?
0:27
SPEAKER_02: Can you explain that to me?
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Well,
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I think it was how,
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how we got our name,
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I believe came from polling.
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SPEAKER_00: I don't know,
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SPEAKER_00: Reagan,
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SPEAKER_00: at least last time I looked,
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SPEAKER_02: we,
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SPEAKER_02: we don't know anything about polling here.
0:40
SPEAKER_02: It's not our favorite thing to do ever all the time.
0:45
SPEAKER_01: Well, poll results are like Christmas presents.
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SPEAKER_01: I mean,
0:48
SPEAKER_01: it just,
0:48
SPEAKER_01: uh,
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SPEAKER_01: it is,
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SPEAKER_01: it's,
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SPEAKER_01: um,
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SPEAKER_01: isn't it part of the intrigue of the job and,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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SPEAKER_01: you can either be,
0:55
SPEAKER_01: you know,
0:56
SPEAKER_01: extremely excited based on what you see or,
0:58
SPEAKER_01: or you could,
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SPEAKER_01: uh,
1:00
SPEAKER_01: be confronted with the reality of the situation.
1:03
SPEAKER_01: And you get that, you know, feeling in the pit of your stomach.
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SPEAKER_00: Reagan said that on the last pod,
1:09
SPEAKER_00: he was like,
1:09
SPEAKER_00: getting that email from your pollster is like,
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SPEAKER_00: it's just,
1:14
SPEAKER_00: it's just so you're just like,
1:15
SPEAKER_00: Oh God,
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SPEAKER_00: I got to open up these.
1:17
SPEAKER_00: I got to open it up.
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SPEAKER_00: And then you're, you're half, you're half afraid and you're half excited.
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SPEAKER_00: Right.
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SPEAKER_00: And
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And then it,
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cause they can either hit you like a gut punch or it can really
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just be like,
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yes.
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SPEAKER_00: And then you,
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then you sit there and you start diving into it and try to
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figure out what it
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SPEAKER_00: means,
1:31
SPEAKER_00: you know?
1:32
So Jerry Seinfeld has a bit where he talks about the minute
1:36
between when you see
1:37
SPEAKER_02: the advertisement about the product and buy it.
1:40
And that time between when you bought it and when it arrives,
1:43
that's the best time in your life.
1:44
SPEAKER_02: Cause you know that whatever you're buying, isn't going to fix your life.
1:47
SPEAKER_02: It's just,
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junk that you're adding to your life but the idea of fixing
1:50
your life is great and
1:52
that's what polling is like you're not going to get a polling
1:54
result that doesn't
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tell you you don't have to campaign or you don't have more work
1:59
to do you still
2:00
have all that work to do but the time between when you order
2:02
the poll and when
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SPEAKER_02: you're going to get some great results like the idea of that is great
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SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it really is.
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SPEAKER_00: All right.
2:11
SPEAKER_00: So we're here with J.L.
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Wilson,
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the owner,
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the chief scientist,
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the nerd,
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right,
2:17
of Nelson Research.
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SPEAKER_00: And also a lobbyist on top of all those other things.
2:23
SPEAKER_00: But always and foremost, I think J.L.
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SPEAKER_00: has always been a big pollster.
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SPEAKER_00: He loves doing polling and stuff.
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SPEAKER_00: I think he likes numbers and research.
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SPEAKER_00: Am I correct, J.L.
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SPEAKER_00: ?
2:33
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I just like the insight.
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SPEAKER_01: I like helping people make decisions more than anything.
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SPEAKER_01: And actually, political polling is not our forte.
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SPEAKER_01: It's not necessarily our bread and butter.
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SPEAKER_01: It is what we do to a certain extent.
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SPEAKER_01: But largely,
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SPEAKER_01: we have been in the business of helping school districts,
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SPEAKER_01: local governments,
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SPEAKER_01: business entities make decisions based on the data that we have
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SPEAKER_01: that we reveal and uncover in our polling.
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SPEAKER_01: So that is the part of polling I enjoy.
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But I also know we're in the political season and that there's
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a certain amount of
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SPEAKER_01: intrigue with with,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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SPEAKER_01: what we see.
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And and particularly when there's sort of a vacuum of
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information like in this
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SPEAKER_01: primary,
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SPEAKER_01: I thought,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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we were we were kind of kicking around how to improve our
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internal processes and
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SPEAKER_01: things like that.
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SPEAKER_01: So I thought, you know, let's just go out with a poll.
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SPEAKER_01: and, you know, refine some of our own internal processes.
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SPEAKER_01: But, you know, we collect this data as a way to do that.
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SPEAKER_01: But,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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I thought we captured a pretty good look at the race as it
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stands basically today.
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SPEAKER_01: And I think,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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this is probably pretty accurate accounting for how the GOP
3:52
governor's race looks
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SPEAKER_01: right now.
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Does is pulling I've heard from pollsters and I've heard some
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different but pulling
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in primaries is statewide is probably a little bit easier
4:02
because at least you get
4:03
a statewide sample of people to grab but it is harder to do
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right it takes a little
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more work a little bit more to find enough likely voters within
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the Republican that
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SPEAKER_00: that's a cross section right of age geography and stuff a little bit more
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SPEAKER_00: difficult.
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SPEAKER_01: I have not found it that challenging to get a representative sample.
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SPEAKER_01: The challenging aspect,
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SPEAKER_01: and I always tell somebody who wants primary polling something like this,
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you're going to be extremely disappointed with the results that
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come back.
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SPEAKER_01: And I would even challenge you to even invest in the polling because
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What's going to happen if you run a poll and say an open house
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district race,
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SPEAKER_01: you're going to get candidate A at 11 percent,
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SPEAKER_01: candidate B at 8 percent with 81 percent undecided.
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And it is not like you're you're not going to have a problem
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getting your sample.
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SPEAKER_01: You will get your sample.
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SPEAKER_01: It's just the reality is most people aren't paying attention.
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SPEAKER_01: The name ID hasn't sunk in.
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And so you're going to get just what I feel is very little
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usefulness out of the
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SPEAKER_01: data,
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SPEAKER_01: particularly,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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SPEAKER_01: in a in a small May election,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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SPEAKER_01: House race,
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SPEAKER_01: Senate race where there's not an incumbent involved.
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SPEAKER_01: But with respect to the governor's race, different story.
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SPEAKER_01: Unlike four years ago,
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SPEAKER_01: where at this time you still had half your electorate undecided,
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SPEAKER_01: most people have
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SPEAKER_01: kind of pick their horse.
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And you see that in the initial first run where we asked the
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who's ahead question
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SPEAKER_01: and the undecided was only at 30%.
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SPEAKER_01: And that's because you probably had a higher level of name ID,
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SPEAKER_01: particularly for Christine Drazen,
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SPEAKER_01: Ed Deal,
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SPEAKER_01: Chris Dudley.
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SPEAKER_01: The three of those have over 50 percent name ID.
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SPEAKER_01: So,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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SPEAKER_01: people have started to form their opinions of those candidates and,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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SPEAKER_01: they picked who they like.
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SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
6:09
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
6:09
SPEAKER_00: All right.
6:10
SPEAKER_00: Well.
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SPEAKER_00: Reagan, any more background you want to put in there before he?
6:14
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I think people would be interested to know methodology wise.
6:20
Are we doing texting,
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live calls,
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IVR,
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online,
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some combination of all of the above?
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SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's a mixed mode.
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SPEAKER_01: I mean, we will go with a text to web.
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SPEAKER_01: So SMS based.
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SPEAKER_01: And then we will also complement that with live call.
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SPEAKER_01: And,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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most of the live call today also happens on cell phones with
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with some landline
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SPEAKER_01: mixed in the you know,
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SPEAKER_01: the upshot is we're trying to hit demographic quotas.
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You know,
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that's very important to get a representative sample of your
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electorate.
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SPEAKER_01: We also apply a likely voter screen.
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SPEAKER_01: One of those is just simply asking likelihood of voting.
7:02
SPEAKER_01: But you also, you know, kind of cross reference that with voter history.
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SPEAKER_01: But it's very important that you get the dispersion correct.
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SPEAKER_01: You get your male-female quotas correct.
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SPEAKER_01: You get your age as close as you can.
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SPEAKER_01: It's a little more challenging to get the younger demographic,
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SPEAKER_01: but I think we captured it pretty well.
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SPEAKER_00: Are younger Republicans even going to vote?
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SPEAKER_01: Well, they're probably not with the frequency.
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SPEAKER_01: And so the percentage won't be as high.
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SPEAKER_01: As you would find with a with a voter age 60 plus.
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SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I was pulling some data just for some legislative primary stuff.
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SPEAKER_00: And it's amazing.
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SPEAKER_00: Like if I if I say,
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SPEAKER_00: hey,
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SPEAKER_00: just show me only 60 plus Republican voters that are three fours,
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SPEAKER_00: four four voters.
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SPEAKER_00: And then you pull and then you take it off.
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SPEAKER_00: And like it's that's basically just 60 plus.
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SPEAKER_00: I mean, there's really not a lot of frequency amongst Republicans.
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you know,
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Republican voters,
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especially younger than 40,
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which is really rough.
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SPEAKER_00: But yeah, it's pretty amazing.
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So if you're not talking to seniors and the older Republican
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voters in a primary,
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SPEAKER_00: you're not going to win.
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I think that that is a feature of the Republican voting base at
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this time.
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SPEAKER_01: I would agree with that.
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Probably not good for us long term in Oregon to have our voter
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base be that old.
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SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
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Well,
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you know,
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another unique feature of the Republican voter base is it's
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majority male.
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SPEAKER_01: And so,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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most of the time when you're when you're when you're pulling a
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legislative
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SPEAKER_01: district,
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SPEAKER_01: it'll typically be 52 percent female,
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SPEAKER_01: 53 percent female.
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SPEAKER_01: The Republican electorate's actually slightly over 50 percent male.
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SPEAKER_00: Wow.
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SPEAKER_00: All right.
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SPEAKER_00: Well, now that we've done the drum roll, the results of your poll.
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SPEAKER_01: Sure.
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SPEAKER_01: And we fielded this last Wednesday and Thursday.
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And so we were actually wrapping up the sample around the time
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that the debate or
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SPEAKER_01: the forum was taking place on that Thursday evening.
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SPEAKER_01: A 515 sample.
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SPEAKER_01: So it's very robust.
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SPEAKER_01: I do have the benefit of having polled it in March,
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SPEAKER_01: which I can allude to for a different client.
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So I have a kind of an understanding of the trajectory of the
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race and can allude to that.
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SPEAKER_01: But a 515 sample is going to be a margin of error of about 4.3%.
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SPEAKER_01: It was a robust sample.
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SPEAKER_01: And you start to see trends take place right at the outset.
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SPEAKER_01: And what you're interested in,
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does that change over the course of the survey when you acquire
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more sample size?
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SPEAKER_01: And so it's funny for you on the receiving end.
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SPEAKER_01: It's like you get this Christmas present of what my data looks like.
9:52
I can have a pretty good idea what it's going to look like,
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just a fraction of the way through.
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SPEAKER_01: And what I'm interested in is whether the trends hold.
10:00
SPEAKER_01: But in terms of what I could say about the results,
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SPEAKER_01: given that we've established we hit the demographic quotas.
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SPEAKER_01: It was a very robust sample size.
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SPEAKER_01: About 74% have a favorable opinion of President Trump.
10:17
SPEAKER_01: With respect to the candidates,
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SPEAKER_01: Christine Drazen has the highest name ID at about 92%.
10:24
SPEAKER_01: Chris Dudley has a very high name ID also at about 76%.
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SPEAKER_01: Ed Deal's name ID is about 64%.
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SPEAKER_01: And then between David and Danielle,
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obviously they haven't had the ability to really set the bar
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for a robust name ID
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SPEAKER_01: for themselves.
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SPEAKER_01: But we have Danielle's name ID at about 40%.
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SPEAKER_01: And David's at about, actually we have his about 52%.
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SPEAKER_01: So I would say he is surprisingly well known.
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And one of the things that we observe in the data,
10:59
he certainly has constituency.
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SPEAKER_01: There are certain places where he really pops.
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SPEAKER_01: So,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
11:05
SPEAKER_01: the candidates,
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SPEAKER_01: I would say,
11:07
SPEAKER_01: are fairly well known,
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SPEAKER_01: especially compared to four years ago when everybody was largely unknown.
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And I think that's why you're seeing more certainty in
11:18
preferences this time around
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SPEAKER_01: as opposed to four years ago.
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SPEAKER_01: So we asked the top line question.
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SPEAKER_01: Just who's ahead?
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SPEAKER_01: Who are you voting for?
11:29
SPEAKER_01: And we ask it twice.
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SPEAKER_01: And I'll get into that in sort of the reason we do that.
11:37
But the first round,
11:38
which we call the hard ballot,
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you had Christine Drazen coming in at 31%.
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SPEAKER_01: That she'd actually gained a couple points since the March poll.
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SPEAKER_01: We had Ed Deal at basically 15 and a half percent.
11:55
SPEAKER_01: which was about static where he was.
11:58
SPEAKER_01: He was surprisingly strong 30 days ago, but he hadn't moved much.
12:03
SPEAKER_01: And then Chris Dudley, we had in the initial poll at 14.8.
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SPEAKER_01: He was the biggest mover because he was under 10 percent 30 days ago.
12:14
SPEAKER_01: Clearly,
12:14
his effort to be known among voters and his ad campaign and
12:19
whatever had elevated
12:21
SPEAKER_01: him from just under 10 now to just under 15.
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SPEAKER_01: So your top three vote getters, Drazen at 31.1%.
12:28
SPEAKER_01: Deal at 15.6.
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SPEAKER_01: Dudley at 14.8.
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SPEAKER_01: So those were your top three.
12:35
SPEAKER_02: Did you say that Drazen was up some?
12:38
SPEAKER_01: Come again?
12:39
Did you say that Drazen was up some as well from the past poll
12:43
that you had done?
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SPEAKER_01: Yes.
12:45
SPEAKER_01: So Drazen about a month ago was probably 27, 28.
12:50
SPEAKER_01: So she'd come up about four points.
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SPEAKER_01: What we had noticed is that Dudley came up about five points.
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SPEAKER_01: And then Ed had largely stayed around the same.
13:00
SPEAKER_01: We've always had Medina at around 6% or 7%.
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SPEAKER_01: He came in at 6.1%.
13:07
SPEAKER_01: And we'd always had Danielle at between 1% and 2%.
13:10
SPEAKER_01: And she came in at just under 1%.
13:12
But I think the important thing here is seven out of 10 voters
13:16
on the Republican
13:17
SPEAKER_01: side have already kind of made up their mind.
13:20
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
13:21
SPEAKER_01: And so you've got 30% undecided.
13:24
SPEAKER_01: So what we do is then we ask the question a second time.
13:29
SPEAKER_01: And so we kind of press in a little bit.
13:33
SPEAKER_01: And for those that are undecided,
13:37
SPEAKER_01: we basically ask them,
13:39
SPEAKER_01: if you absolutely had to choose today,
13:42
SPEAKER_01: which candidate would you lean toward?
13:44
SPEAKER_01: And then we randomize the name selection and ask people,
13:48
What I'm really looking for there is where your next marginal
13:52
vote's going to come from.
13:54
SPEAKER_01: And usually that's a reflection of who they've heard from last,
13:59
SPEAKER_01: name ID,
14:01
SPEAKER_01: somebody who's resonated with them some way.
14:03
But what I'm really looking to capture is where we think the
14:06
next marginal vote's
14:07
SPEAKER_01: going to come from.
14:09
SPEAKER_01: So on that, Drazen leads again with 5.8%.
14:15
Chris Dudley at 3.3,
14:17
Ed Deal at 2.0,
14:20
and then Bethel and Medina at under one.
14:23
So what that informs me is that about 50% of the next marginal
14:30
vote is going to go to Drazen.
14:34
SPEAKER_01: And a little less than 50%, say 30%, is going to come to Dudley and Deal.
14:40
SPEAKER_01: So given that scenario,
14:44
SPEAKER_01: Given that Christine is,
14:45
SPEAKER_01: you know,
14:47
SPEAKER_01: her hard ballots at 31 and,
14:49
SPEAKER_01: you know,
14:50
Deal and Dudley are there around 15 and that Christine is is
14:55
kind of winning the
14:55
SPEAKER_01: battle for the next marginal vote.
14:58
SPEAKER_01: It's hard for me to see how Chris or Ed catch up in that scenario,
15:03
SPEAKER_01: because if Christine is also capturing the plurality,
15:08
if not the majority of the next marginal vote and creating that
15:12
separation or
15:14
SPEAKER_01: maintains that separation,
15:16
SPEAKER_01: it's just hard for me to see
15:19
SPEAKER_01: how Ed or Chris are able to bridge that gap.
15:22
SPEAKER_01: I'm not saying it can't be done,
15:24
but if the data would have come back that the next marginal
15:27
vote belongs to Dudley
15:30
SPEAKER_01: because his ad spend has been very,
15:32
SPEAKER_01: very significant,
15:33
SPEAKER_01: then I would say,
15:34
SPEAKER_01: okay,
15:34
SPEAKER_01: well,
15:34
SPEAKER_01: it looks like we could be headed to a photo finish.
15:39
SPEAKER_01: Or maybe Ed catches fire and you have a similar situation,
15:42
but they're not getting the majority of what we consider the
15:46
next marginal vote.
15:48
SPEAKER_01: So it's hard for me to see how they're able to bridge that gap.
15:52
SPEAKER_01: I'm not saying it can't be done.
15:54
It's just saying at that snapshot in time,
15:57
it looks like they've got a lot of ground to cover.
16:01
SPEAKER_02: And if you're Dudley or Deal at this point,
16:03
SPEAKER_02: because I mean,
16:05
SPEAKER_02: what you're showing and then another candidate gets 1% of the vote.
16:08
SPEAKER_02: So there isn't anybody else in the field that is really that is relevant.
16:13
SPEAKER_02: You know, Bethel really isn't relevant.
16:15
SPEAKER_02: Medina, I think.
16:16
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
16:36
Dudley deal campaign but the biggest thing that deal doesn't
16:40
have is he doesn't
16:40
have a ton of cash in the bank unless he's making more
16:44
additional loans and even
16:46
with Dudley having money in the bank you basically have to hope
16:51
if you're either
16:52
their supporters or you're either their campaigns they already
16:54
have plans in motion
16:55
SPEAKER_02: to get aggressive on the messaging
16:57
Because right now I think if you run a positive only campaign
17:02
that doesn't have
17:03
SPEAKER_02: anything about it that is special or unique or anything like that,
17:06
SPEAKER_02: I mean this is what we look at on election day.
17:09
SPEAKER_02: You'll see basically this where D.O.
17:11
and Dudley's votes come from different segments of the
17:14
electorate and they're added
17:16
SPEAKER_02: up about the same maybe or a little less than Drazen.
17:19
But Drazen is going to run away with it basically with almost
17:22
20 points up.
17:25
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, like I said, I think that the picture is pretty clear.
17:29
SPEAKER_01: I think,
17:30
SPEAKER_01: you know,
17:30
SPEAKER_01: Dudley probably has the best ability to make up the gap,
17:34
SPEAKER_01: given that he has,
17:36
SPEAKER_01: you know,
17:37
SPEAKER_01: a lot of the ad spend left.
17:39
But you look in the cross tabs and you kind of look at where
17:42
his vote's coming from.
17:43
SPEAKER_01: It feels like there's a ceiling because he's really,
17:48
SPEAKER_01: you know,
17:49
SPEAKER_01: when you look at the cross tab between
17:53
SPEAKER_01: Those that consider themselves moderate in the party.
17:56
SPEAKER_01: And we actually identified,
17:58
SPEAKER_01: which felt a little high to me,
18:00
that three in 10 Republican voters identified themselves or
18:04
their preference as
18:05
SPEAKER_01: being a moderate candidate,
18:08
SPEAKER_01: which really felt high to me,
18:10
SPEAKER_01: but it is what it is.
18:13
SPEAKER_01: That's where Dudley's base was coming from.
18:16
SPEAKER_01: And for those that consider themselves a traditional conservative,
18:20
SPEAKER_01: and then we had another category,
18:22
SPEAKER_01: sort of the America first Trump Republican,
18:26
SPEAKER_01: that is four out of 10.
18:27
SPEAKER_01: He wasn't pulling much out of those two buckets.
18:31
SPEAKER_01: He was really pulling from the moderate bucket.
18:34
SPEAKER_01: And then he was,
18:35
SPEAKER_01: you'll find in the crosstabs too,
18:36
SPEAKER_01: those who had an unfavorable oppression of President Trump,
18:40
SPEAKER_01: he was the runaway.
18:42
SPEAKER_01: uh, uh, candidate for those who had real, uh, you know, dissatisfaction.
18:48
So it feels to me like the pool that he has to pull from is
18:53
fairly limited.
18:54
SPEAKER_01: You know,
18:55
SPEAKER_01: you look at Ed on the other hand,
18:57
SPEAKER_01: Ed is,
18:58
SPEAKER_01: I think,
18:58
SPEAKER_01: geographically constrained,
19:01
SPEAKER_01: obviously doing very well in the Mid-Valley,
19:03
SPEAKER_01: almost certainly on par with Christine,
19:08
SPEAKER_01: but he's just getting blown out in the population centers,
19:13
SPEAKER_01: particularly the metro,
19:15
SPEAKER_01: which,
19:16
SPEAKER_01: you know,
19:16
SPEAKER_01: Clackamas County is the biggest single concentration of Republicans
19:21
SPEAKER_01: And Christine is just miles in front there.
19:26
SPEAKER_01: The Southern Oregon,
19:28
when you talk about that I-5 between Roseburg and Medford is
19:33
another tranche,
19:34
SPEAKER_01: 18% of your Republican.
19:36
SPEAKER_01: He's not performing well there.
19:38
SPEAKER_01: So he feels kind of limited to the Willamette Valley.
19:42
So he's going to struggle in those areas unless he has a plan
19:49
to reach those voters in 30 days.
19:51
um you know i'll give medina props he clearly has a
19:55
constituency but you'll notice
19:57
in the crosstabs it's in the 18 to 39 and the the the problem
20:02
there of course is do
20:02
they show up or not and so um you know everybody's got their
20:07
little places where
20:08
they're very strong generally speaking christine is strong
20:13
across all domains
20:15
and i you know the way i personally interpret the data she is
20:18
she does appear to be
20:19
the candidate that is uh kind of coalesces you know both ends
20:23
of the party uh you
20:25
know better than i think ed speaks to one part of the party
20:28
very well um chris
20:31
speaks to one part of the party very well even david speaks to
20:35
a part of the party
20:35
SPEAKER_01: very well but but christina christine kind of crosses all domains yeah
20:41
It looks like I was looking at the cross and she does really
20:43
well with older voters.
20:44
SPEAKER_00: Christine does, too.
20:45
And that's older voters are also harder to switch,
20:49
change minds and stuff like that,
20:50
too.
20:50
Like if they've made up their mind,
20:52
like their their hard ballot is for Christine.
20:55
because I would look at this if I was ideal,
20:57
because you said catch fire.
20:59
I'm like,
20:59
if you haven't caught fire by now,
21:01
I mean,
21:01
you're not catching fire,
21:02
right?
21:02
You've caught all the fire you're catching without money
21:05
because money can buy you
21:06
SPEAKER_00: some fire because it's gasoline for campaigns.
21:10
SPEAKER_00: So, but if you don't have the gasoline to your point, like,
21:13
SPEAKER_00: If he had a $300,000 ad buy on Portland TV,
21:17
SPEAKER_00: maybe he could catch some fire with the message that resonates,
21:21
SPEAKER_00: right?
21:21
And pull some of those,
21:22
but there's not enough with 30% undecided,
21:26
really.
21:26
I don't know if there's not enough because those people are
21:30
leaning a certain way
21:32
SPEAKER_00: and Christine has money.
21:33
SPEAKER_00: If Christine didn't have money,
21:36
SPEAKER_00: Because I've gotten four mailers from Christine at this point.
21:38
SPEAKER_00: Not one from the other candidates, by the way.
21:41
SPEAKER_00: None.
21:42
SPEAKER_02: Exactly the same.
21:43
SPEAKER_02: Two guns, two pro-life abortion mailers.
21:46
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
21:47
SPEAKER_00: Well, I haven't gotten two pro-lifers.
21:49
SPEAKER_00: You're more pro-life than me, I guess, Reagan.
21:54
SPEAKER_00: But I think Dudley,
21:56
SPEAKER_00: I think the biggest problem,
21:58
SPEAKER_00: that biggest mistake he made is he waited too long.
22:03
SPEAKER_00: People have made up their mind based on looking at this polling,
22:06
SPEAKER_00: and there's not enough time,
22:08
SPEAKER_00: not enough runway left in the campaign to catch fire without...
22:15
SPEAKER_00: getting aggressive on your messaging and looking at his TV ads,
22:18
SPEAKER_00: they're fine and stuff for name ID and they're good.
22:20
SPEAKER_00: You know, Oregon needs a rebound.
22:22
SPEAKER_00: That's kind of catchy.
22:23
SPEAKER_00: That's who he is.
22:24
SPEAKER_00: Reminds people of what he, where he came from.
22:27
SPEAKER_00: But I,
22:27
SPEAKER_00: I don't see where,
22:30
SPEAKER_00: and I see,
22:31
SPEAKER_00: I think Ed just ends up at a right around where you got him jail.
22:34
SPEAKER_00: I see him at probably 16, 17%.
22:38
SPEAKER_00: I see Dudley at like 22 and I see Christine winning with about 30.
22:44
SPEAKER_00: And everybody else will sprinkle below that.
22:47
But based on where your trends are going,
22:50
somewhere within there,
22:51
give a couple of points.
22:53
SPEAKER_00: But it sure doesn't seem like there's an opportunity.
22:57
I don't see anything in your crosstabs that would strike as an
23:00
opportunity unless
23:01
SPEAKER_00: you strike at Christine.
23:04
And I don't know if any of those guys have the will to do that,
23:06
nor the money.
23:07
SPEAKER_00: I mean, Dudley's the only one that has the money.
23:10
SPEAKER_01: Well, I think you get at something.
23:12
SPEAKER_01: Why do candidates go negative?
23:14
SPEAKER_01: And candidates go negative to try to,
23:17
SPEAKER_01: first of all,
23:17
tear down the numbers of the front runner and to try to create
23:21
some product
23:21
SPEAKER_01: differentiation.
23:23
And you're going to you're inevitably going to see it if if
23:28
someone really,
23:29
SPEAKER_01: you know,
23:31
I know that there's this there's a desire for party unity
23:34
because I heard that
23:35
SPEAKER_01: expressed in the event on Thursday.
23:38
And so upsetting that apple cart is going to require somebody
23:42
to take a plunge and
23:43
SPEAKER_01: say,
23:43
SPEAKER_01: hey,
23:43
SPEAKER_01: I want to win this thing.
23:45
SPEAKER_01: And to do that, I've got to take real shots at the front runner.
23:49
You're going to have to see that fairly quickly in order for
23:53
that to happen.
23:53
SPEAKER_01: any chance of success.
23:55
And so somebody's going to have to reach a decision point
23:58
whether I actually want
23:59
SPEAKER_01: to pull the trigger on that or not.
24:01
SPEAKER_01: Because if all things being equal,
24:04
SPEAKER_01: the candidates are just kind of playing patty cake with each other,
24:06
SPEAKER_01: there's going to be no change in this outcome at all.
24:09
SPEAKER_01: No.
24:10
SPEAKER_00: Could Medina come out and endorse in a deal with that?
24:13
You think that using that platform to change – because he's
24:16
clearly not going to win.
24:17
SPEAKER_00: He's going to do fine.
24:19
SPEAKER_00: I guess if I was friends with Medina,
24:21
SPEAKER_00: I might say,
24:21
SPEAKER_00: hey,
24:21
SPEAKER_00: listen,
24:22
SPEAKER_00: you're young,
24:22
and this is a good opportunity for you to come in fourth place
24:25
in a very – I would
24:28
SPEAKER_00: say just a very well-respected and accomplished field.
24:33
SPEAKER_00: To come in fourth is pretty good for a young guy like that.
24:35
SPEAKER_00: But if he gave his –
24:37
SPEAKER_00: Wade behind a deal.
24:38
SPEAKER_00: Maybe there's some opportunity there,
24:40
SPEAKER_00: but I just don't,
24:41
SPEAKER_00: I don't know,
24:41
SPEAKER_00: just kind of curious your thoughts on that,
24:43
SPEAKER_00: but.
24:44
SPEAKER_01: I think it would potentially inject a little fuel.
24:48
I do,
24:48
I do consider those two as having sort of crossover appeal with
24:52
each other.
24:53
SPEAKER_01: So I do think it would probably inject a little fuel into Ed's campaign,
24:58
SPEAKER_01: but I don't,
24:59
SPEAKER_01: I don't think enough vis-a-vis Christine to,
25:03
SPEAKER_01: to bridge the gap.
25:06
SPEAKER_02: The other thing,
25:06
SPEAKER_02: too,
25:06
SPEAKER_02: that is fascinating,
25:07
SPEAKER_02: and you pointed this out,
25:09
SPEAKER_02: and I think this gets missed a ton,
25:12
SPEAKER_02: is the regionality of these primaries.
25:15
It's true in legislative races when you have two candidates
25:17
from different parts of
25:18
SPEAKER_02: the district.
25:18
SPEAKER_02: I think that matters a ton.
25:20
SPEAKER_02: But also here, like –
25:23
SPEAKER_02: There's a scenario where Bethel does better,
25:27
SPEAKER_02: but because her base is in the Valley,
25:30
SPEAKER_02: she just got absolutely crushed by Deal's entry into this race.
25:34
SPEAKER_02: She's been in it longer, but he has just way more voters.
25:38
And you could see a scenario where she builds a campaign out of
25:41
being the only
25:42
SPEAKER_02: candidate from the Valley.
25:43
But because she isn't,
25:44
she just got,
25:45
I mean,
25:46
completely rolled over on that front,
25:48
I think.
25:48
SPEAKER_02: And I think that regional problem and then like you mentioned before,
25:52
SPEAKER_02: Drazen is well known and has represented the largest Republican county.
25:59
SPEAKER_02: The county with the largest amount of Republican voters in Clackamas.
26:02
And I think that's been that's super important and has been
26:05
very helpful to her
26:06
SPEAKER_02: this whole time,
26:08
SPEAKER_02: allowing her and Dudley.
26:10
SPEAKER_02: I mean, Dudley lives in central Oregon, but I wouldn't necessarily say.
26:13
SPEAKER_02: He's super duper strong out there.
26:16
I think he has a little bit more of ability to get to those
26:19
voters in a way that
26:20
SPEAKER_02: some of these other candidates can't.
26:22
But I don't think he's got the strong power base you'd expect
26:26
if he had been more
26:28
SPEAKER_02: politically active there over the last 10 years or 15 years.
26:34
Yeah,
26:34
and keep in mind,
26:35
you know,
26:35
Central Oregon is probably only 7% to 8% of that electorate.
26:39
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
26:39
SPEAKER_01: the real juice is in the Mid-Willamette,
26:44
SPEAKER_01: Clackamas and Washington,
26:45
SPEAKER_01: and that I-5 between,
26:47
SPEAKER_01: you know,
26:48
SPEAKER_01: basically Roseburg and Medford.
26:50
SPEAKER_01: That is going to account for, what, 75% of your Republican electorate?
26:57
SPEAKER_01: I mean, don't get me wrong.
26:59
SPEAKER_01: I have the strongest...
27:01
SPEAKER_01: affinity for Eastern Oregon and the people who are there.
27:05
I always marvel at the time candidates spend in John Day or
27:10
Burns or those places.
27:12
I mean,
27:12
although it's God's country,
27:14
that is just not where the people are.
27:16
SPEAKER_01: And I know it feels kind of like comfort food if you're a Republican.
27:20
SPEAKER_01: You're kind of with your people.
27:21
SPEAKER_01: But your voters are actually in three sections of the state.
27:29
And and so I'm always surprised when people aren't just
27:34
absolutely pounding those those.
27:35
SPEAKER_02: It's my central organ raising and bias towards,
27:39
SPEAKER_02: you know,
27:39
SPEAKER_02: former Republican leadership from that area,
27:41
SPEAKER_02: I guess,
27:43
SPEAKER_02: some of which I am related to some.
27:44
SPEAKER_02: Some of which I am not.
27:45
SPEAKER_02: But you're right.
27:47
SPEAKER_02: No.
27:47
And I think that that also it's so interesting because there
27:51
is,
27:51
though,
27:51
and I am aware of this.
27:52
SPEAKER_02: I've talked to folks out there.
27:54
SPEAKER_02: The folks from Eastern Oregon, they do they they do make.
27:59
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
28:17
SPEAKER_02: And same thing,
28:18
SPEAKER_02: I think,
28:18
SPEAKER_02: for Eastern Oregon,
28:19
SPEAKER_02: where it's sort of like if you don't go there,
28:22
it actually starts to become a problem for you because that
28:24
gets around with the
28:25
SPEAKER_02: folks in Eastern Oregon and they can turn into a little bit of a problem.
28:29
SPEAKER_02: So I'm not telling candidates don't go there,
28:31
but know where the voter breakdown is and make sure you're
28:34
spending enough time
28:35
SPEAKER_02: where almost 80 percent of the voters is.
28:37
SPEAKER_02: I think it's a good a good recommendation.
28:41
I mean,
28:41
you've got just as many voters on the coast as you do in
28:44
Eastern Oregon,
28:44
which is crazy.
28:45
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
28:46
SPEAKER_02: Not including Central.
28:48
SPEAKER_02: I want to make that clear.
28:50
SPEAKER_02: I've looked at Central Oregon as separate from Eastern.
28:52
SPEAKER_02: It always has been.
28:52
SPEAKER_02: It always will be.
28:53
And anybody who calls Central Oregon Eastern Oregon always
28:56
takes a step down just
28:57
SPEAKER_02: slightly for me.
28:59
SPEAKER_02: And so I like, JL, that you've broken it out.
29:02
SPEAKER_00: No, no, no, no.
29:03
SPEAKER_00: You're hating on your boss right now?
29:04
SPEAKER_00: I feel like you are.
29:05
Because Crook County,
29:06
I mean,
29:06
we straddle the line between Eastern Oregon and Central Oregon.
29:09
SPEAKER_00: I mean, we really do.
29:10
SPEAKER_00: We characterize Crook as Central.
29:17
SPEAKER_01: So our Central Oregon demographic runs up 97 from Deschutes up Costco.
29:23
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
29:24
SPEAKER_02: No, that's the correct way to do it, Joe.
29:25
SPEAKER_02: Good job.
29:26
SPEAKER_02: Stop.
29:28
SPEAKER_00: I'm with you guys, though.
29:30
SPEAKER_00: I remember because I worked on the 06 and then Dudley's campaign in 10.
29:34
SPEAKER_00: I remember Saxon was getting on a plane, and he was flying down.
29:39
SPEAKER_00: At that point, Ben didn't really have that many people.
29:42
SPEAKER_00: They were like, oh, we're sending them here and then here.
29:44
SPEAKER_00: I'm like, why is he even here?
29:47
SPEAKER_00: We're good.
29:48
SPEAKER_00: I have all of our counties nailed down.
29:50
SPEAKER_00: You take all 16 counties east of the mountains over here,
29:53
SPEAKER_00: and it wouldn't even equate to Clackamas County.
29:55
SPEAKER_00: So it's like, why are you even here?
29:58
SPEAKER_00: Like, get out of here.
29:59
And I remember yelling at the campaigns,
30:00
like,
30:01
and this is in October,
30:02
like,
30:02
get out of here.
30:02
SPEAKER_00: We're fine.
30:03
SPEAKER_00: We're all voting Republican, like go over there where the people are.
30:07
And I think the same thing in these primaries,
30:09
I think Dudley's biggest appeal is in the Valley.
30:12
SPEAKER_00: And it is amazing how much time you spend in Wallowa or,
30:16
SPEAKER_00: you know,
30:16
SPEAKER_00: Burns or something when there's literally a handful of voters over there.
30:20
SPEAKER_00: And
30:20
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I don't see Christine.
30:22
I mean,
30:22
she's gone to those areas,
30:23
but which I think you have to do to Reagan's point.
30:27
SPEAKER_00: But I mean,
30:27
I would be holding all my events and plowing all my media and
30:32
everything into like,
30:33
SPEAKER_00: especially like Eugene and Southern Oregon,
30:36
SPEAKER_00: because those are cheap markets too,
30:38
SPEAKER_00: relative to Portland's market.
30:39
I'd spend a ton of TV down there because it's probably a sixth
30:44
of the price.
30:45
SPEAKER_00: So, and you're getting a lot of value out of it.
30:47
SPEAKER_00: So, yeah.
30:49
SPEAKER_00: You know,
30:49
SPEAKER_01: one of the things I'm looking at in the crosstabs,
30:52
SPEAKER_01: too,
30:52
SPEAKER_01: is what percentage of the people who like you are you capturing?
30:58
SPEAKER_01: And the, you know, Christine has a 64% favorable rating.
31:04
SPEAKER_01: I mean, first of all, 90% of the voters have heard of her.
31:09
SPEAKER_01: And of the 90%, two thirds really like her.
31:12
SPEAKER_01: And so she is capturing almost 50%
31:16
of the people who say that they like her she's she's capturing
31:20
50 of that vote
31:21
nobody else is even close like you look at uh like chris is
31:24
favorable uh chris's
31:26
next favorable is that at basically 44 he's splitting his
31:30
favorable almost 50 50
31:32
with christine which means people who like chris they might
31:35
like him like we like
31:36
like maybe like all the candidates but 50 of the people who say
31:40
they like him are
31:41
SPEAKER_01: voting for somebody else
31:42
SPEAKER_02: No one in this field is hated.
31:44
SPEAKER_02: And I think that's interesting,
31:45
SPEAKER_02: too,
31:45
SPEAKER_02: because if you spend any time online,
31:49
SPEAKER_02: you wouldn't necessarily think that.
31:51
And it tells you how not reflective of reality the social media
31:57
primary is compared
31:58
SPEAKER_02: to the actual primary.
32:01
SPEAKER_01: I say that.
32:01
SPEAKER_01: I mean, there's there's a lot happening on social media.
32:05
The reality is when you think about the Republican voter,
32:09
say it's a 60 year old female.
32:12
Do you think that they're plugged into anything that's being
32:14
said on X or any?
32:16
SPEAKER_01: It's just not.
32:18
And so there's a very limited universe for that back and forth
32:21
that's on social media.
32:23
SPEAKER_01: Most of the voters are completely disconnected from it.
32:26
SPEAKER_01: So I always think about what does grandma think?
32:29
SPEAKER_01: You know, how's grandma processing this race?
32:32
SPEAKER_01: And it's so when you when you kind of think about it that way,
32:35
SPEAKER_01: it's easy for me to see Christine's appeal.
32:38
SPEAKER_00: I agree.
32:39
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
32:39
SPEAKER_00: I think it's a, it should be either way.
32:41
SPEAKER_00: It's been a good primary, been a fun primary.
32:44
SPEAKER_00: Um,
32:44
SPEAKER_00: you know,
32:44
SPEAKER_00: I'm not,
32:45
SPEAKER_00: I'm not going to hang it up yet because I still think there's a,
32:48
SPEAKER_00: there's enough time to do something,
32:49
SPEAKER_00: but it clearly has to come out of Dudley's camp who has money.
32:53
SPEAKER_00: I would be, I would, I would never loan yourself money like a deal did.
32:57
SPEAKER_00: I think that's just wild, especially looking at polling.
32:59
SPEAKER_00: You'd assume he had polling and he thought,
33:01
SPEAKER_00: if I just had a hundred grand,
33:02
SPEAKER_00: I'm going to get myself over the top.
33:04
SPEAKER_00: I just, uh,
33:06
You know,
33:07
a good run,
33:07
I think,
33:08
there,
33:08
but I think we got to have money to play in a game.
33:11
SPEAKER_00: And what I saw,
33:12
SPEAKER_00: what you just said about Christine,
33:14
SPEAKER_00: is I don't think attacks will work on her because she's liked.
33:18
SPEAKER_00: So if you attack,
33:19
that could actually backfire against you and galvanize those
33:22
supporters for
33:23
SPEAKER_00: Christine.
33:24
SPEAKER_00: So attack ads and primaries are very tricky.
33:28
SPEAKER_01: And I would say that her unlikable, so she's at 16%.
33:34
SPEAKER_01: I kind of feel like that's tapped out.
33:36
SPEAKER_01: it's hard for me to see that number going much higher.
33:40
But the people that don't have a favorable view are split kind
33:44
of evenly between Ed and Chris.
33:47
And so there's not even a candidate that the people that don't
33:51
like her are galvanizing around.
33:55
SPEAKER_01: I will say that it's about Ed.
33:56
SPEAKER_01: I think Ed is really punching above his weight with respect to
34:00
SPEAKER_01: the people that like him relative to his name id i mean his positive his
34:05
favorability is almost on par with dudley's uh with almost none
34:10
of the money spent
34:11
and uh a name id that is significantly less so i i think that
34:15
he is speaking to a
34:18
broad swath of the party but i agree in the absence of
34:21
resources to build the name
34:22
SPEAKER_01: id it's just not it just has it has a ceiling
34:26
SPEAKER_02: He'll do great on the cost to vote calculation.
34:30
SPEAKER_02: He just doesn't look like he's going to win the primary,
34:33
SPEAKER_02: which usually you want to do if you're the candidate.
34:36
SPEAKER_02: But we'll see.
34:37
I think there's a window,
34:38
like Brian said,
34:40
but it's narrow and closing fast.
34:43
And if Drazen has a bunch more mail lined up hitting high
34:48
turnout Republican
34:49
SPEAKER_02: voters,
34:50
SPEAKER_02: of which Brian and I are one,
34:52
SPEAKER_02: and which is why we're getting a lot of this mail,
34:55
SPEAKER_00: then... No, we're not even in the age demo.
34:57
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
34:57
SPEAKER_00: you're like in the Medina age demo,
34:59
SPEAKER_00: Reagan,
34:59
SPEAKER_00: and I'm at least getting into the higher demo.
35:03
SPEAKER_02: I wasn't going to point this out, but I am going to point it out.
35:06
SPEAKER_02: I'm going to the crosstabs right now.
35:08
SPEAKER_02: I don't have any explanation for this, but Medina gets like 30%
35:12
of the 18 to 35 female vote and maybe that's why he's in the
35:16
primary he's i don't
35:18
know if he's married or not but he could be there i don't know
35:20
it's just something
35:21
i noticed it was abnormally high yeah so i'm pointing it out
35:25
well thanks jl um this
35:26
is fascinating stuff thanks for bringing us the crosstabs and
35:32
uh really appreciate
35:33
SPEAKER_02: you coming on to share this with us my pleasure thanks guys