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War Powers Resolution; Israel & UAE; Mifepristone; Spirit | Yaron Brook Show · Yaron Brook Show

• 0:07
  Speaker 1: This is a flash its sun interesting and an individual wise,
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: this is a your on a book show. All right, everybody,
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: welcome to here one book show on this Saturday, May second.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: I hope everybody's having had a good week, having a
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: good weekend here in Austin, Texas. The sun has finally
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: come out. It's a blue sky, sun is out. It's
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: still not hot, it's it's not warm, it's high sixties.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: But yeah, it's nice to see the sun. I've been
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: here a week and it's being cloud. I mean it's
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: been overcast, no sun, zero sun for the whole week.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: And yesterday it rained pretty much all day. So yeah,
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: happy to see, happy to see some sunshine. I hope
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: wherever you are you are getting some some good good
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: weather in all right, let's see. Uh yeah, that revving
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: was from a car in the street outside the hotel.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: It was so loud you could hear it up here
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: in my hotel room, the reving of the I didn't
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: even see if it was a motorcycle or if it
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: was a sports car, some kind of sports call. Anyway,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: great sound, I just you know, not not not in
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: a crowded not in a crowded area, all right, reminder
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: that you can support the show by doing a super
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: chat or stick up super chat. You get to shape
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: the shape of the show, so you could do that.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: I thought today we would do we would cover some
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: news items, given that I didn't do a show yesterday,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: so we've got a kind of a day to catch up.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: Probably do a show tomorrow on something more general, we'll say,
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: but today we'll just catch up. I want to dig
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: deeper into one particularly topic, which is the War Powers Act. So,
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: for those of you who don't know, and those of
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: you don't know the you know, the sixty days that
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: the president is supposed to get congressional approval for military
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: reaction expired yesterday and Trump did not see congressional approval,
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: and he has a number of theories to explain why.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: So first they thought, I show you a video of
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Trump just commenting on this, partially to see to show
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: you how much he understands the regards our constitution, and
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: then we'll get into a deeper DISCUSSI of the Constitution
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: and the Will Palace Act, vis A VI VISA VI
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: issues related to WHA. All right, so let's let's watch
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: this video. Now here's the thing I don't really have
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: a good sense of whether you're going to hear the
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: sound or not, and whether you're going to hear the
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: sound from the right place I'm using. I don't have
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: a mixer here, this is on my computer. I don't
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: know if you're going to hear it through the mic
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: or through the things. So what I need from you
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: is just a quick on the on the chat. I
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: need a quick kind of response on whether you are
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: whether you are hearing the hearing the sound from the
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: video or not. All right, so let's see. Let's play
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: you've got you can see see the video? I think right,
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: I think everybody can see the video. And here we go.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Let me know in the chat if you're hearing the
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: sound Christo, Presidents Phase sixty, are you going to seek
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: correctual operization? For no other country has ever done it? That,
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: no other country has ever done it? He says. It
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: is the US Constitution and it is the American Powers Resolution. No,
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: can you hear me? But can you hear him? You
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: can see it? I guess you can see it. I
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: understand you can hear me. Can you hear Trump in
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: that bed? Could you hear the video anyway? He says?
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: And no, other countries haven't done it. It's our constitution.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Other countries don't follow our constitution. Only we are required
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: to follow our constitution. That is part of what it
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: means that it is ours. And it's pretty pretty crazy,
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: pretty crazy that that he can he can get away
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: with saying that it's it's no other countries haven't done
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: done it. It's never been at as you know, most people.
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: Considering totally unconstitutional. Also, we had to cease fire, so.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: That gives you additional time, so most people consider it unconstitutional.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: I don't think that's true. He's just making that up.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: The War Powers Act, there is some conflict about whether
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: it is constitutional or not that has never really been resolved.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: We'll get to that in a little bit. But most people,
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: you know, well, he makes stuff up. And then the
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: other thing is he says the ceasefire was done before
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: the sixty days were up, so it doesn't apply right
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: there is no combat operations right now. He says, the
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: blockade is kind of combat operations. We've got a bunch
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: of soldiers there. Any day, supposedly this could be re engaged,
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: but the sixty days is over. I guess if we
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: bomb you on again, the sixty days will start up again.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: I have a theory about what's going to happen to prevent,
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: you know, getting im getting involved in this sixty day again.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you about it in a minute. But no
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: other country's done, and we're in the midst of a
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: big victory. This is a victory like we haven't had
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: since done as well out Okay, that was like two
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: months ago. There's a victory like we haven't had since Venezuela. Well,
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: hopefully this is a bigger victory than Vitzuell, and a
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: better victory than Vitzuell and actually resume change. But the
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: reality is nothing's really happened yet. I think that's fair
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: to say we haven't won yet. And it actually looks
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: like Ivan is winning right now because it's closed up
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: straight and foremost. But it's true that I do expect.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: I do expect that, you know, there's a good chance
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: that we will kind of win in a sense that
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Iwan will probably fold or Trump will cut a deal,
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: who knows, who knows where this is setting. But victory
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: at this point, okay.
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: To be honest with you, we haven't had. But you know,
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: we have a country that lost its way and really
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: lost its way.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: That's our country in terms of the military.
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: Now we have a great military. We're on our way
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: to another victory, a big victory. And I don't think
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: that it's constitution of what they're asked for. These are
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: not patriotic people that are asking, you know, when they
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: say even the losers, even the ones that say all
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: the wrong things, admit that has been amazing.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: What we've done. The string is totally shut down.
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: It's flawless, it's totally shut down.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Now, So straight is shut down. I'm sorry, it's just
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: too funny. The straight is shut down. Is that a
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: good thing or a bad thing? You know? Usually that
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: is considered a bad thing, that is shut down because
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: our allies and our friends and can't get can't get
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: oil and they can't ship anything out. So the idea
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: that this is a a good thing, that I mean,
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: I know know what he means. What he means is
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: the blockade. But it is just one piece of the
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Straits of Homos. That's a blockade on Urania ships. What
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: about the Ue ships and the and the Saudi ships,
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: and the Kuwaiti ships and the Iraqi ships and all
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: the other international ships. The LNG that's going in and out,
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: that is going for Kato and all of that is
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: shut down as well. That is not shut down because
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: America shut it down. That shut down because if you
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: want shut down, and that's not a good thing, that's
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: not an American interest, that's not what this is about.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: And he's taking pride in that we've shut down the
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: Straits of Homo's. This is the reason why this is
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: not a victory is because the Straits of Homos is
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: shut down and the Iranians are stronger, more powerful because
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: they're the ones doing it. So it's pretty pretty astounding
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: that And I've seen this on Twitter as well. Bessett
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: said the other day, Yeah, we're winning. Look we set
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: the state of Homos. No, that's a sign we're losing.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: We didn't want to shut the States of Hoemos. We
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: wanted to open the states of almost We've tried, you know,
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: we've been eager to see it opened. We're negotiating with
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: the Urunians to have them open the States of Hoemos. Yeah. Pretty,
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: we've been dealing with Iran they want to make a deal.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: They're not there, they're not with them, They're they're.
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: Sort of they get clubs and then a new group
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: of people come in. They don't know who their leaders are.
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: They have no idea who their leaders are. But they're
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: very confused. And that's because of the success we've had militarily.
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: They essentially have no military.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: All right, So you know, you on I think has leaders.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: They know who their leaders are. They're not the leaders
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Trump would like because they're not the ones that are
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: likely to negotiate and likely to compromise. But Euan has leaders.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: They're ruled right now by a committee of the the
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Revolutionary God. See, like everything else, he's making stuff up
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: and he's just he's just you know, I don't know
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: if he's making stuff up, because it could be that
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: he believes this stuff. It could very well be that
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: he believes it. But the reality is it's it's completely
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: divorced from reality. Is no connection to reality. The stuff
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: that he is saying, the stuff that he's arguing, and
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: he is he is, you know, President of the United States,
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: commander of chief. So I guess we have to take
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: to take it seriously no matter what he says. So yeah,
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's where you are. God, given that
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: he's arguing this is not constitutional and all that. Maybe
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: we do a little refresher on, you know, the constitutionality
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: of going to war, what the Constitution actually says about
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: going to war and what that implies, and then we'll
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: talk about and then I think we should talk about
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: the War Powers Resolution, which try to clarify some of
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: the issues around going to war. So, according to the
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: US Constitution, our constitution, not anybody else's, but ours, the
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: war powers are divided between Congress and the president. Congress
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: is the entity that declares war, and Congress has related powers.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: It raises and supports armies. It provides and maintains a navy.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: It make rules for the armed forces. It costs forth
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: the militia. It funds military operations. Army appropriations, for example,
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: cannot last longer than two years, so the Congress has
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: to provide the funding for the military. So constitutionally, the
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: power to formally declay war belongs to Congress, not to
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: the president. Now and the Swim Court, the Swim Court
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: has recognized thatote only Congress has the power to declay war.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Now here, you know, there's still some question because the
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: president is responsible for foreign policy, and the Constitution says
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: the president shall be Commander in Chief of the Army
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: and Navy of the United States. And of course the
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Air Force wasn't an air force back then. That means
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: that the president gets a direct military operation, strategy, command
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: and execution once on forces are in use, but armed
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: forces are in use. I think the Constitution believes only
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: when a war is declared, you know. And here's the problem.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: The problem is that in our modern times, really since
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: World War Two, it has been rare in America that
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: wars declared, actually hasn't happened. That war has been declared
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: in spite of forces armed forces of the United States
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: being involved in military operations. You know, the Constitution does
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: not have an answer for limited strikes, undeclared wars, emergency actions, peacekeeping,
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: counter terrorism operations, or kind of other uses of force
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: where a war was not declared. Now, remember the Constitution
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: was written in the eighteenth century, when you know, going
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: to war was a logistically complicated, lengthy operation. It didn't
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: just happen. You couldn't just send a you know, a
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: plane and to bomb your enemies. This requires fleets and
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: arms to move from place to place. And so everybody
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: knew the war was coming and you declared war. Hey,
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: I'm coming to fight a war. In modern times, that
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: is pretty rare. I mean, Putin didn't declare war on Ukraine.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: He just launched a war in Ukraine. So the Constitution
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: does not have provisions that cover all these, you know,
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: ways in which war can be engaged, in which what
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: do you call it, in which force can be utilized,
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: in which force can be utilized. That is not in
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: the Constitution. And as a response to this, after the
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: Vietnam War, Congress got together and decided to you know,
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: clarify some of these issues. And in the War Powers
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: Resolution of nineteen seventy three it tries to do that.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: So let's talk about the War Powers Act of nineteen
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: seventy three and what it's trying to do. So it
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: basically says, Congress is you know, you know, it's it's
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: in a ten by Congress. Put it that way, a
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: ten by Congress to prevent presidents from taking the US
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: into sustained wars without congressional approval. No, the Vietnam War
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: was a ward that was never declared, and it lasted
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: four years really almost a decade, and it kept accelerating,
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: growing and shrinking and tens of thousands of Americans died,
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: and in Congress never declared war. Now, it allocated funds
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: for the war, so it participated, it sanctioned it, but
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: it never actually declared a war. So here's what the
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: War Resolution Act requires. Has three main requirements. The President
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: is supposed to consult Congress in every possible instance, that's
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: the quote, in every possible instance before introducing US force
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: into hostilities or into situations where hostilities are clearly imminent. Afterwards,
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: he must keep consulting Congress until US forces are no
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: longer engaged. So if you put forces into a conflict
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: zone as peacekeepers or in anticipation of a war, or
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: to hand down terrorists or anything like that, you should
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: consult Congress. Then requirement number two, if US arm forces
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: introduced into hostilities, into armed conflict or imminent hostilities, or
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: into foreign territory while equipped for combat, or imaging U
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: combat deployment, the President must report to Congress within forty
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: eight hours. That must explain the circumstances, the legal authority,
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: and the estimated scope and duration. So within forty eight
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: hours President has to report this. Now we'll get to
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: where any of these are realistic. Or have happened at all,
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: and then the sixty day so sixty day clock. Once
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: the reporter is submitted or quiet to be submitted, the
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: president has sixty days to keep using US forces unless
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: Congress declares war, passes a specific authorization, extends the deadline
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: by law, or is physically unable to meet because of
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: an attack on the United States. The president can get
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: up to thirty more days only for unavoidable military necessity
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: while we're drawing forces, so he has to consult and
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: make up reporting forty eight hours and then sixty days
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: Congress has to prove it. Note that in the wording
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: Rock there was no consultation. There's no reported forty eight
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: hours as far as I know, and there's certainly not
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: being a congressional resolution at day sixty. And even though
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: the President denies it, the war is clearly ongoing, right
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: the zero reason to assume that it's not so. Again,
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: as a May Section twenty twenty six, the war powers issue,
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: you know, has not been resolved one way or the other,
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: and the administration is claiming that it's not there. You know,
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: there's a question did the February twenty eight strikes trigger
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: the war pause clock. Well, yes, I mean it's military operations,
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: combat operation. Clearly, Trump is claiming that the April seven
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: seas fire stopped the clock, but this is pretty doubtful.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: Were still in a blockade, And the sixty day provision
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: lists specific exceptions to the sixty day clock, Congression authorization,
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: Congressional extension, and so on. Nothing about it says cease fire.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: Does an evil blockade count as the continued hostilities? Now?
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: You know, again, legally, it's not clear, and it's certainly
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: not clarified by the resolution, given that we are on
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: stand by to resume operate military operations, and the blocade
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: is certainly seen by the United States as an extension
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: of military operations, it seems like it is. And then
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: what happens if fighting resumes, Does it go back to
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: zero start over again for a new sixty day. Nobody knows,
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: and there's no clarity around us. And it's important to
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: note that the War Polity Act has always been interpreted
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: in a variety of different means and being controversial, it's
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: pretty complicated. So now there's an Andrew Fox Human MATUW
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: foxs and my show a while ago. So I'm going
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: to read a little bit from his From his article
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: about the War Powers Act, he writes, under the resolution
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: of President who has introduces US forces into hostilities without
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: a declaration of war, specific statutory authorization to report. We've
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: talked about that after you know, after that, the use
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: of forces after sixty days, the use of for US
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: forces must terminate unless Congress declares war, grants specific authorizations,
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: et cetera. So you know, in iiron case, clearly this falls.
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: And you know, the administration either yesterday had to seek
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: presidential authorization, which it did not. It needs to weigh down,
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: which it is not, or invoke the thirty day safety Extension,
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: to which grow troops, which again it's not because it's
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: not with drawing any troops. Or they have to advance
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: the legal theory that whatever military activities remain no longer
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: triggers the War Powers Acts. And for that Trump appears
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: to have done that by claiming the cease fire doesn't qualify. Now, well,
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: we go back to the history. The architecture of the
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: law was shaped by Vietnam. This is again from Fox's article.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: Congress wanted the collective judgment of both branches to apply
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: before the United States entered or remained in hostilities. Nixon
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: vetoed the resolution, which is interesting, right, Nixon didn't want
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: to give up presidential power with regards to this. He
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: called it unconstitutional, and you'll hear Trump mentioning this and dangerous.
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: Congress overrode him. It's rare to overwrite a veto, but
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: Congress overrode him on seventh of November nineteen seventy three,
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: and from the outset the War Powers Resolution has lived
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: intention between statutory command and presidential resistance. The Lebanon precedent
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: illustrates how that tension operates. In nineteen eighty three, after
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: US Marines had been deployed as part of the multinational
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: force in Lebanon and were increasingly exposed to hostilities remember
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: the Marine barracks, Congress passed a specific authorization allowing the
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: mission to continue for up to eighteen months. Reagan signed it,
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: but in the signing statement, you know the assigning statements
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: you can make the president can make. Next to the signature,
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: he insisted that he was not conceding that Congress could
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: impermissibly limit his authority as commander in chief. Congress got
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: an authorization, the constitutional fight remained unresolved. Kossovo nineteen ninety nine.
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: A further example, Clinton began NATO aaron Kuz missile attacks
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: against Uroslavia without express congressional authorization. The House then rejected
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: the declaration of war, a resolution authorizing the strikes, and
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: a resolution directly directing the removal of U S forces.
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: The campaign continued for seventy nine days. Members of Congres sued,
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: but the DC Circuit dismissed the case for lack of standing.
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: It's not clear who could sit. The courts did not
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: convert the sixty day clock into an injunction and instead
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: left Congress to use its own tools. In twenty eleven,
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: Libya offered a different evasive route. After the sixty day
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: window became central to the debate, The Bomba administration argued
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: that US operations did not constitute hostilities for purposes of
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: the resolution. The stated reason were the absence of US
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: ground troops, limited exposure of use of Cinnel personnel, a
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: constrained mission design, and the lack of sustained exchanges of fire.
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: Whether persuasive or r this again Fox, the argument allowed
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: the administration to fight over the meaning of the trigger
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: rather than accept the hard stop, so basically, everybody's ignored
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: the War Powers Act to continue from Fox, the post
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: nine to eleven authorizations show a third vote, Congress can
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: authorize force, then leave the authorization broad, durable, and politically
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: difficult to revisit. The two thousand and one Authorization for
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: Use of Military Force was drafted as a specific statute, sorry,
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: a specific statutory authorization within the meaning of the War
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: Power Resolution, but over time it became a legal foundation
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: for operations far beyond the original Afghan battlefield. The weakness
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: he allies and authorization it became too elastic to serve
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: as a constraint. So that's kind of background for what's
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: going on right now. Efforts during in Trump's Iran War
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: Powers failed in Congress, including a House vote in mid
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: April that followed a similar Senate defeat. But it doesn't.
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: The failure doesn't erase the War Powers Resolution, but you know,
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: it shows kind of the impotence of Congress to do
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: anything about it. So you know it, you know he has.
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: So Trump has a legal inflection point. But the reality
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: is just like Clinton and just like Obama, and really
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: just like every president since ninety eleven with regard to
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: the authorization about nine to eleven, which has been expanded dramatically.
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: The facto, you know, Trump can just ignore it, and
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: that's what he was suggesting. I'm just going to ignore it.
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: The question is, ultimately, will Congress assert itself or will
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: it prefer ambiguity while the executive absorbed the political risk
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: and retain his operational freedom. I think it's pretty clear
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: what's going to happen. Right The War Power Resolution is irrelevant.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: Nobody's going to pay any attention to it. It's never
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: made it to Supreme Court to rule about its constitutionality.
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: President is before Trump have ignored it, and President Trump
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: is sure, without any question, to ignore it. And I
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: think that's where we are. I don't expect any anything,
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: anything new to happen. I don't expect any consequences for
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: the sixty day passing. I expect Trump to continue to
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: do what he's doing with no consequences other than political
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: consequences for a over a war that is not very
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: popular with American people and has not been. And Trump
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: is not argued for convincing me to then American people,
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: even though you know that I think it's I think
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: it's I think it's the word that makes sense, but
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: not the way he's doing it. So I'm not going
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: to repeat all my criticisms of the way this was
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: being handled. But the reality is it's going to continue.
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: Trump is in control, he is the commander in chief,
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: and Congress is impotent. Congress is completely impotent. They can't
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: get anything done. The only stuff they can get done
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: is rights violating and unhelpful. All right, let me remind
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: you this show is made possible to support of people
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: like you listeners, watchers, those of you who are alive.
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: You can support the show with a super chat or
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: a sticker and show value for value and ask questions
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: by asking questions on any topic you want, and I
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: answer all the questions. By asking questions, you get to
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: shape the show, You get to determine what I actually
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: talk about. So please consider asking questions. We have a
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: goal for these shows at two hundred and fifty dollars
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: an hour. Please help us get to the goal, and
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: you can do that. We only go one question. God,
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: that's the longest I've gone in history, I think, with
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: only one question. So please there's plenty plenty of Unless
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: you have no questions, that's fine, all right, Just a
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: quick one ITTs reports in the last few days have
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: come out. During the war and while Iran was attacking
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: Israel and attacking the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Baha and Katau
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: and Quits and all these other countries, the UEE actually
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: turned to Israel to seek help in dealing with the
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: drone and missile attacks coming you know, being fired at it.
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: And indeed, during the war, Israel rushed it's cutting edge
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: weapon systems to the UEE to help defend against Iran's
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: more than five hundred ballistic missiles and two thousand drones.
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: And this is pretty stunning. Israel has never exported it's
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: a defense system anyway, never mind to an Arab country.
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: This particular package included the Iron Beam laser defense system,
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: which is brand new and has just been deployed in
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: January in Israel, you know by the IDEF, and now
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: the UEE already got a unit deployed at the UEE.
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: It also included the Spectro drone detection surveillance system, the
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: Iron Dome byies these dingdome that Israel has been using
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: for over a decade now in the South to stop
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: the missiles that used to be used by Hamas and
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: in the North against Grisbela. The iron dome batteries, the guns,
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: the missiles that shoot down the projectiles, and several dozen
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: Israeli military personnel to operate them. See here's the first
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: in the history of Israel. Israeli weapons and Israeli troops
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: military personnel were used in an Arab country to defend
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: that Arab country against attacks from another Muslim country. I mean,
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: it's pretty stunning. This is a kind of a consequence
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: of the Abam Records, which you know, establish a peace
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: agreement between Israel and the U. But the idea that
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: ISO would supply it's most some of its most advanced
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: weapons systems and place is you know, Israeli troops and
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: you e territory is pretty stunning. Isoh reportedly pulled some
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: of the systems straight from the prototype stage. My guess
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: is that's the lasers right to get them to us
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: you fast enough. You know, they got they got the
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: newest and best, and they got troops that knew how
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: to operate these systems. Yue is taking on a very
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: independent track, an independent track, a track independent of side
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: of Arabia and independent of other Gulf states. It is,
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: as you know, because I mentioned this is a Thursday.
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: It is now left Uh. I keep wanting to say NATO,
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: but it's left opek right, it's left opic. And it
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: is now now getting military assistance, military assistance from Israel.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: I mean YUI is really going on on an independent
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: track and tightening its alliance with Israel. I think it
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: sees Israel as a as a real partner in terms
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: of defending UAE, particularly when I think the general sense
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: in the Gulf is that America cannot be trusted, which
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: reminds me. I wanted to tell you about my theory
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: about what Trump is going to do. So here's the
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: here's the thing. Trump is under a lot of pressure
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: not to engage in military operations, not to stop bombing
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: you on again, uh, and and and to just kind
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: of bleed the Iranians by having the blockade. But as
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: of now, at least the blockade has not led the
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: Iranians to come to the negotiating table with anything like
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: a proposal that Trump could agree to. So there was
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: some talk about maybe this weekend Trump would re start
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: the war at least for a few days, you know,
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: really bomb them, you know, severely, and then and then
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: you know, go back to the negotiating table, hopefully having
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: convinced the Iranians they should negotiate. And I guess that
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: is possible. And suddenly, if you look at troop movements
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: and airplane movements and everything in the Middleast, it looks
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: like maybe the United States is getting ready for that,
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: because it's got all the troops necessary for that in
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: the region. And yet he's coming under also pressure about
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: the what powers act in terms of or resolution in
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: terms of sixty days that have passed. He's getting a
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: lot of resistance I think for people like Jade Evans.
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: He's getting resistance from elements in Maga. He's getting resistance
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: from I think himself. He doesn't you know, he doesn't
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: want he doesn't like war. He thought this would be
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: quick and easy. See, here's one solution for him, right.
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: He could unleash these Raelis. He could basically tell these Raelis,
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: you do it. I'm allowing you to bomb you on,
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: Go bomb youran, go devastate them, go crush them. I
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: didn't do it. He could say to his American public,
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: I'm not involved in this war. This de lisses fire
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: as far as I'm concerned. And unless you know, US
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: bases get attacked or which the Ranians will probably do,
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: or US ships get attacked. He could still play you know,
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: this is Israel's war, this is not my war. So
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: I guess that's a possibility, and then have Israel stop
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: after a while and then try to negotiate with the Iranians.
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: You know, I don't know what they're thinking there. Straights
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: Foremos remains remain closed to shipping, right. I mean, the
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: United States is closing off the Iranian shipping, but the
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: rest of the world shipping is also closed for whatever reason.
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: And I don't understand it. This administration doesn't receive to care.
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: The Saudis, the UAE, the Bahrainis, the Kirakis, the Katais
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: must care. And it's surprising to me that they're not
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: putting a lot of pressure, although they might be in
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: the background putting pressure on the Trump administration to open
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: up the streets of homos. Trump clearly does not want
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: to put boots on the ground. He clearly does not
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: want to engage in activities that could generate casualties. I
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: think he was so petrified when those pilots went down
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: over Iran, the pilots who were rescued that he doesn't
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: want a scenario like that. Again, he's just a coward,
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: a coward who can't defend the war, who make the
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: case to the American people about the legitimacy and the
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: necessity of this war, and therefore doesn't want to be
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: in a position to have to explain to the American
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: people why this was cost casualties. So he's just avoiding
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: any action that might lead to casualties. He's avoiding any
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: action that might lead to victory, avoiding any action that
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: might lead to success. He's avoiding any action that might
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: lead to the opening of the Homo straits. He's just
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: playing it. He's playing it so that you know, none
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: of that is relevant. So he's going to blockade with
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: a hope player that basically the Ranians will fold. He's
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: basically declared military operations over as part of his attempt
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: not to have to, you know, do a thirty sixty
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: day resolution. There's some Texans and a pickup truck down there,
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: loud music and yelling. So yeah, regime change, which is
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: the only way to win this war, I think, is
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: off the table because it requires too much risk taking,
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: way too much risk taking. Then Trump is willing to
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: engage in anyway. I think the Israel Yuee is really cool.
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: I think that it is a definitely a turning points
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: in the history of the Middle East. It's a turning
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: point for the UEE. I think that plus Yui leaving Opek,
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: Yui is taking on an independent strand. Remember the OUE
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: is the after I think after. Saudi Arabia has the
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: largest bake capacity of all production in Opek. So they're
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: though they could actually increase production significantly now that they're
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: outside of Opek. Now they don't any way to get
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: it out because they can only They've got a pipeline
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: that bypasses the Straits of Homoes, but it doesn't have
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: the capacity just for them to increase capacity to increase
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: the amount of oil that the export. So they're doing
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: that in max. But once the Straits of Almost opens
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: one day, they will be they will be able to
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: increase their oil exports significantly. It gives them flexibility. They
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: get to decide how much oil to export. They're not
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: beholden to the Saudis and to the rest of Opek
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: for decision making. Let's see what else did I want
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: to say about the Ua. I mean, I wonder what
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: the UI is gonna think if Trump negotiates a deal
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: with Iranians that give them control of the Homo Straits
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: and let them charge a booth a toll on the
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: Homo Straits. I mean he if he does that, he
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: loses the saudiast and the Uyees, and he loses the
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: rest of the Golf States as US allies, I mean,
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: the Golf States are basically relied on the United States
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: to keep the Straits of Homoes open. That's part of
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: the deal, that's part of the relationship. Indeed, the United
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: States is supposed to keep all the key straits in
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: the world opens so that there's a free flow of trade.
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: That is part of why we have a large navy.
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: But this would be constituted a complete betrayal. So the
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: only one a war worth fighting, a war worth winning
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: winning requires minimal ground forces, probably just ground forces necessarily
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: open the Straits of Homos, and it needs to be done.
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: Otherwise the United States loses all credibility and uses the
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: need to losers any deterrent power it had over, for example,
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: the Chinese. All right, let's do a big switch of topics.
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: Major topic switch to talk about myth MIF for Pystone,
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: miff Priystone mid for Prystal, which is the abortion drug.
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: Now we covered this story, what was it a year
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: or two ago? We covered three years ago. Actually, we
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: covered this story three years ago when Judge Matthew Something
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: casts Mark Mo Chris Mark of the fifth Ciirlcuit basically
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: purported to block on a nationwide basis. This is uh
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: the FDA's two thousand approval of MILF the abortion drug
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: and its subsequent authorization for dispersing it remotely, that is,
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: without like a prescription, without a doctor seeing the patient
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: in advance in person. So he blocked it. That was
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: three years ago. The first Circuit Court refused to stay
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: his ruling pending an appeal, So they refused to They
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: kept the block on. In other words, they kept the
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: block on. Then the Supreme Court, in an emergency hearing,
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: actually did stay his ruling and then held a plenary
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: review and unanimously the Supreme Court ruled that the plaintiffs
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: in the case who were suing to get the abortion
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: drug blocked, actually lacked any standing. So they threw the
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: court through the whole thing. That was three years ago,
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: and ye had on Friday afternoon. This may first fighting
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: a three judge panel of the Fifth Circuit Court ruled
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: in Louisiana versus the FDA. They basically issued a state
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: under the Administrative Procedure Act of the twenty twenty one
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: and twenty twenty three FDA action that had between them
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: practically and then formally suspended the in person dispersion requirement.
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: So basically what's at stake here is can I get
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: the abortion drug by mail or do I have to
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: see my doctor in person before I get the abortion drug?
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: If it's in portion in person then basically states that
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: abanded abortion women there can no longer use their bortion
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: pill because no doctor will give it to them. And
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: right now they get it by male from out of
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: state doctors, that will go away because this will block
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: the ability to do that right at stay here is
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: the ability of women to get the abortion pill by
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: male without seeing a doctor. This was an FDA decision
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: that was made. It was first made in twenty twenty one,
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: but they formalize in twenty twenty three that that is possible.
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: A lot of women will be affected by this. Sixty
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: percent of all abortion is actually done through the abortion pill.
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: But the women that would suffer the most from this
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: a woman who have no ability to see a doctor
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: in order to get an abortion pill because their states
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: ban that. So those red states that are banned abortion,
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: their women will be particularly harmed by this. So the
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: federal courts is now basically made it impossible on a
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: nationwide basis, nationwide scale, to mail the abortion pill, which
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: is unbelievably horrific. Right again, you can argue some of
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: you do that you know abortion should be allowed in
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: the third you know, trimester, that you know it's after
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: viability or something like that. Okay, I kind of get
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: it right, But an abortion pill is usually taken within
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: the first few weeks, days, weeks. This is not even
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: a features. This is just cells, a clump of cells multiplying.
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: And to say you can't aboth then it's just anti life,
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: anti women. But it's anti life, it's anti any respect
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: for human life, for the actual human life, the elevation
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: of a potential above an actuality. Anyway, the Fifth Circuit
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: Court effectively reimposed of requirement that doctors prescribe mill for
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: pristone only after having examined patients in person, and it
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: did so overtly on a national, nationwide basis, And indeed
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: it seems that that ruling goes into effect immediately. So
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: long as it remains in effect, the drug, the abortion drug,
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: which comes from more than sixty percent of all abortions nationwide,
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: is going to be almost impossible to attain in places
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: like Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi. According to the ACLU, more than
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: one in four people in the United States who have
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: an abortion do so using telemedicine. Without this method of
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: care delivery, patients using mif perystone would be forced to travel,
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: sometimes hundreds of miles to hell Health center with a
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: doctor just to pick up a pill, a requirement that
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: leading medical authorities agree has no safety benefit, none whatsoever. Anyway,
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: now the question is what happens. Right again, this panel
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: is ruling in spite of the FDA having approved this.
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: That is, it doesn't care about the data. This is
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: a purely political ruling, right pristone is significantly safer than
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: both penicillin and viagra, you know, and both I think
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: viagua you can give my mail, and you know, it's
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: hard to tell how this will be ruled on the
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: Courts generally don't question, the FDA, the FDA, the experts.
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: So it's not clear what a Supreme Court would rule
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: on this. Again, it ruled nine to zero, but over technicality,
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: so what it would rule here is not clear. Does
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: Louisiana in this case has standing. Louisiana is suing because
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: in Louisiana, emotions are banned completely and women are getting
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: abortions by getting the pill mail to them. This is
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: an attempt by Louisiana to stop right, to stop this.
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: You know obviously the legality of of of mailing the pill.
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: So we will see where this goes. And uh and
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: whether you know this will be I'm sure to be
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: appealed to the court, but how quickly it'll be appealed,
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: whether it's expedited, whether it's not exper pedited, whether the
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: court will stay it this decision or accept it, whether
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: it will rule on the merits, and how quickly it
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: will do that. You know, it's it's going to be.
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: It's going to be. It's going to be interesting to
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: see what indeed happens in this case. But the the
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: attack on abortion pill just lays bare the real true
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: motivation of the anti abortion movement. This is not about
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: life This is about anti life. This is not about
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: out caring about a fetus. This is about hating the
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: woman and her life and her ability to make choices
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: about her life. And the abortion pill, I think lays
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: that bear more than any of the other abortion issues
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: and any of the other abortion laws, because it's so obvious,
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: it's so obviously you know that that you know what
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: is being destroyed. Here is just a clump of cells.
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: All right, let's see. Finally we talked about spent, and
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: we talked about the possible bailout. I've spent by Spirit,
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: not spent Spirit the airline by the Trump administration and
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: Trump administration put a proposal together to try to bail
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: out a Spirit. The proposals fire, as I can tell,
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: was turned down by the bondholders, and indeed, today May second,
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: as of three am Eastern time, Spirit canceled all flights
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: as if you have a flight on Spirit, you might
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: look into it. Credit and debit card customers will get
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: automatic refunds. Others can file claims at Spirit Restructuring dot com.
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: The shutdown leave seventeen thousand employees jobless. It obviously strands
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: many passengers. Rivals will step in with what they're calling
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: rescue fares. So you can probably get deals right now
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: to replace the fear you had on Spirit on some
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: of its competitors. And of course rivals will start digging
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: at the corpse of Spirit Airlines and trying to figure
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: out what they can, what they can, what they want
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: about eye, which routes they want to take, which gates
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: they would like to have. Gates are very valuable in
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: the airline business. See, you can expect now in bankruptcy
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: court an attempt to sell off the assets. It's unlikely
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: that the Trumpet administration will try to bail them out
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: now that they're formerly in bankruptcy and that they have
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: canceled the flights, laid off the people. It's a little late.
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: So whatever the Trumpet administration was offering, the bondholders didn't
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: like it. They thought they could get more by just
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: selling it off. And you know, it's it's I think
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: that it's also possible that Secretary Sean Duffy, who is
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: the Transportation Secretary, went out within the administration and convinced
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: the President not to bail out a Spirit. He was
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: very much against it. He didn't like it. Now, the
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: fault for this, for this bankruptcy is again obvious. It
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: goes back to the Biden administration. It is the bidenministration
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: would stopped Jet Blue from buying Spirit. None of this
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: would have come up. If Jet Blue had bought Spirit,
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: that deal would have been. It would have enhanced Jet Blue,
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: would have given it a lot more gates, a lot
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: more airplanes. Spirit runs on a different model of the
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: Jet Blues. It would have taken some time for the Spirit,
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: you know, for Spirit planes to be retrofitted to be
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: more like Jet Blue planes and all of that. But
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: airline mergers are not new. They happen all the time.
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: It could have happened, should have happened, And who is
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: the fault the Biden administration and above all Elizabeth Yaan.
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: Here's what Elizabeth Yan wrote in Let's see this was
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: I mean two years ago whenever this is going on,
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: and seats to sell and would have had some Yeah,
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: I've worn for months that a Jet Blue Spirit Airlines
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: merger would have led to fewer flights and High Affairs
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: Justice and used Department of Justice were right to stand
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: up for consumers and fight against runaway airline consolidation. What
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: runaway airline consiliation? This is a Biden win for flyers.
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: It was such a win that now the airline's gone.
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: Now the airline's gone, so and now, you know, I
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: think this is ultimately not as good of an outcome
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: as the merger would have been, but it is a
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: you know, it's a better outcome, much much better outcome.
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: I'm believed that the Trump administration didn't didn't bail them out.
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: So I think now we'll let the marketplace, you know,
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: deal with the assets of what's left over of Spirit. Pete, Pete,
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: what's his name, Buttling? Beutling. He was Transportation Secretary, I
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: think under Biden. And again you know the clips on
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: TV of him showing him announcing the Biden inssversation decision
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: to fight the Jet Blue and Spirit merger as they
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: could protect consumers and ensure low fares. I'm sure all
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: the people who got their flights canceled at three am
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: this morning are thankful to the Biden administration for helping consumers. Yeah.
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: Elizabeth Waughan, of course, is trying to wiggle out of this.
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: She writes, spiked few prices from Trump's war was the
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: nail in the coffin for twice bankrupt Spirit airlines for
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: what it's worth. Jet Blue merger failed because the judge
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: appointed by Ronald Reagan said the deal was illegal because
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: you guys fought it. Republicans are desperate to shift blame
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: from higher costs hitting families. The blame is on the
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: Biden administration pursuing it. And at the end of the day,
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: antitrust laws are arbitrary enough that a judge can find
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: anything anyway, anyway in any way they want to. Yep.
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: And of course, you know, Elizabeth one continues to complain.
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: The big four airlines American, Delta, Southwestern, United controls seventy
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: five percent of the US market, fewer choices, higher prices
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: for you. Well, I mean it would have been five
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: If that merger had gone through, it would have been
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: another big airline competing with those big airlines. Instead, we've
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: got spirits out. Jet Blue is weekend because it's not
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: as big as it should be. It might be gobbled up.
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: Why wanted the larger airlines? I think there's talk about
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: the United Jet Blue merger, and you've got Frontier and
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: you've got Alaska. American Airlines is probably gonna try to
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: buy Alaska, and I'm not sure what happens to Frontier,
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: it might be the next one in bankruptcy. So instead
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: of allowing the market to determine, you know, which airlines,
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: how many airlines prices, we have politicians doing it. I
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: Ran said, they're one of the most evil laws, or
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: maybe the most evil law pertaining the business ever passed,
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: was the antist law. That it was the lynchpin of statism,
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: the lynchpin for conyism, the lynchpin. By the way, in
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: my course the Corporations the kind of the history of
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: business in America, we on Tuesday, I'll be teaching a
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: class on anti trust in the history of American business
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: and we'll start delving into that. We're gonna spend four
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: hours on it. So there's a lot to say about
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: how anti trust evolved over time and how and how
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: it affected business over time. That is, what kind of
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: effect it had on business over that period of time.
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: See the consequences of a bad one of many bad
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: Biden Biden administration decisions affecting all of you. All Right,
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: that is it. That is in news. So this Saturday
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: May second, thanks for joining. It will now turn to
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: super check questions, and I will remind you that they're
• 59:35
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• 59:38
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• 59:42
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• 59:49
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  Speaker 1: Alex Epstein dot substack dot com. All right, let's jump
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  Speaker 1: in here. I don't know the last few days, you
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: guys seem to have run out of questions, not a
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: lot of questions. You know, have questions. You can use
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  Speaker 1: So that is the only question above twenty dollars today
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: or twenty or above so looking for twenty dollars questions.
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: All right, and I know it's an unusual time and
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: unusual day, so a lot of my regulars are not here.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: And let's see, he says, I found you a recent
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: assessment of Chinese EV markets interesting. I recall you saying
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: a while ago that Tesla will likely be taken over
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: by a regular com manufacture. What are your thoughts on this?
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: Has your assessment changed? Yeah, I mean I think it's
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: clear that's not going to happen. This is a few
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: years ago. I did think that that's how a large
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: American auto company would get into electric in a big way,
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: is to buy Tesla and bring kind of the big
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: big car manufacturing, marketing, distribution, and maybe even manufacturing heft
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: to Tesla. But it doesn't look like that's going to happen.
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: Part of it is that Tesla seems to still get
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: incredible valuations. A lot of that is built on the
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: idea of of the Tesla taxis, which is what Musk
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: seems to have pivoted the company to, woods going all
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: in on taxis self driving. And then the other aspect
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: of that is the fact that he that he's pivoted
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: to robots and he thinks robots are going to be
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: the big market. Now, whether either one of those pans
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: out as successful in as profitably as Musk argues, you know,
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: I just don't know. We will see, But I think
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: that it's taking it out of kind of the realm
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: of what the big three automakers or the big two
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: who could buy and forward in general motors, would actually do.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: So I don't think that's going to happen. I think
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: Tesla is going to continue to be a competitor. I think, look,
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: we're moving towards a world in which a self driving
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: cause dominate. That is probably a world of electric cause.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: And you know, whether that takes ten years or thirty years,
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: that's where we're heading. Tesla seemingly has a big advantage there,
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: and you know, and already has a self driving car,
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: though it's not been approved for driving without a driver
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: who is might not be touching the steering wall, but
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: is at least focused on what the car is doing.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: At some point it'll be approved for driving truly driverless,
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: and then it's a question of how many Americans really
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: want that, and then it'll take probably decades to get
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: us all converted into that. You know, I'm sitting here
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: in Austin, I can look out my window and see
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: the streets and every I don't know, fifth sixth car
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: is a Waimo. So the reality is that there is
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: a lot of driverless cars already in places like Austin, Atlanta,
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: you know, LA and San Francisco, and that's expanding. I
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: think they're now in Miami and they're going to be
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: in about twenty cities I think by the end of
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: the year. So Waimo is expanding dramatically. The concept of
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: driverless cause particularly driverless taxis if you will, is going
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: to be super successful and it's going to dominate Right
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: here in Austin. Weimo is integrated into Uber, so when
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: you order an Uber car, you might get a Weimo.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: It's not it's not obviously will, but you might. I
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: think it depends on if there's a driver. I don't
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: know how the algorithm prioritizes, but I think ultimately Uber
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: is gonna convert its entire fleet into driverless cars, and
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: you know, it's safer. Insurance costs are probably lower, you
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: don't have to do background checks on the drivers, there's
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: no liability associated with the drivers. I mean, everything is
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: more effective if you do it, if you if you
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: get driverless cars, I mean there's still some barriers to cross,
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: Like in some states the driverless cars do not go
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: on the highways yet, they don't go into airports yet.
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: But I think that's gonna change. I know it's a
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: Francisco for example. They now can go down close to
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: the airport. So you know, there's no question we're moving
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: towards a driverlest car era. Tesla is well position for that.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: I also think that in the long run, if you
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: really think about the long run, it's not clear you
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: want to own a car, right because if you can
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: order a driverlest car to come pick you up in
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: a matter of minutes a minute, two minute, two minutes,
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: and it'll drop you off anywhere and pick you off anywhere,
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: and you can order them in advance or you can
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: order them last minute, it might just be significantly cheap
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: and not to own a car and to just have
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: a driverlest car drive you around whenever you need one.
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: That is going to change the car market significantly. So
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: a lot is going to change now. The people with
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: a huge advantage in driverlest technology is Tesla and the Chinese.
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: The US auto companies, you know are still way behind.
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: Even the European car companies like BMW and Massie eighties,
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: who should be shouldn't be caught up. I mean they
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: have the tech, they put in the capital, but they
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: just don't have the cause, primarily because they're not very
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: good at building low cost small cars. They just build
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: because the next few years and automobiles are going to
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: be very very interesting, because clearly the market is going
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: to shift towards driver lest cause. And they're very core
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: and they're incredibly safe, so I don't understand why people
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: wouldn't overwhelmingly use them chasm. Could a black market emerge
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: for the abortion pill? Yes, absolutely, I don't think it
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: would be that difficult to carry out. What would involve,
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: what would involve harsher penalties, heroin or abortion pill? I
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: guess there's abortion pill well. And and particularly for the dealers,
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: the people who smuggled it across state line and sold
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: it to desperate women, I think they that would be
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: a very risky profession. I think I think law enforcement
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: really clamp down on them. But yes, I expect a
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: black market to arise. Just like when you ban abortion,
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: there's a black market for abortions. For actual abortions. All right,
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: a few more questions, but not many, so I'll remind
• 1:10:27
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• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: thank you for the support. I appreciate it. Let's see
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: the other stickers. String a bell, Tessa, thank you for
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: the sticker. You two can do a sticker, It's easy,
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: just Gale, thank you for the sticker. Who else? Enrick?
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: Another one? Natural observer? Thank you? Mike Dill and Jonathan
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: Honing got us started. So thank you guys. Really appreciate
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: the support. James, why do you think minorities have an
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: easier time in DC than in Boston despite both being
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: minority majority cities. Will it ever change? What do you
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: mean by easier time? You mean that in Boston there's
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: more racism, you know. I'm not sure what you mean exactly,
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: but I think there's something snobbish about Boston. There's something
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: about Boston where the white population, you know, is descended
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: from who knows whom. And they are elitists and they're
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: very left, but they also, you know, have this idea,
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: they have this kind of elitist attitude towards minorities. I
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: think that's why. I mean, the mayor of Boston is
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: a woman and an Asian. So I guess I'm not
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: sure what do you mean by easier time? What that
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: means exactly? Mike? Why does the press ask no substantial
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: questions like why Trump is negotiating when he doesn't know
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: who is leading you on? Because that would that would
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: you know? Because I think they're not sophisticated enough. They're
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: not very smart. They don't really understand these conflicts very well. Uh.
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: Mostly they're not looking for an intelligent question. They're looking,
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: if anything, for Gotcha's sound bites. So I don't think
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: the media is that sophisticated. And Trump also might be
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: calling upon the journalists to ask the questions. Who are
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: the least sophisticated? Wesley? How common is pro Russia sentiment
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: in Israel? I'm reminded of the recent incident was stolen
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: grain Israel wanted to import. I mean, the reality is
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: there's very little. I mean, I don't know actually a
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: big chunk of Israelis are Russian in origin. So there
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: was a massive immigration of Russians into Israel in the
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: nineteen nineties. And I don't know if those Russian Israelis
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: sympathetic to Russia and the Ukraine will or not. They
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: very well could be, and it could be why Natanya
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: is being cold towards Ukraine, and it does not he
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: doesn't want to piss up Putin, but also he might
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: not want to piss up certain voters. There's a political party,
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: the Party of Libermen, who are all basically, you know, Russians.
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: So I don't know. I really don't know how pro
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: Russia the population is. My guess is probably split. But
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: I you know, I don't know about the Russians. And
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: then how many of the Russians who came to Israel
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: in the nineteen nineties were actually Ukrainians and the sympathetic
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: to Ukraine. So I have to say, I don't know.
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: You know, next time I'm in Israel, I'll try to
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: get a bit of answer. Next time I talk to
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: somebody from Israel, I'll try to get a better answer
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: for you. Neo says it's the culture of the Yui
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: ready to support Israel. You know, I don't know. It's
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: hard to say. Yui ultimately is a very small country,
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: you know's what's the population of Ui? Let's ask GBT
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: you the sha in terms of citizens. It's small and
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: they're the only people who count. Okay, it's bigger than
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: I thought it was. Okay, So let's see most of
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: Yui population is okay, yeah, okay, I was right. Sorry.
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: See here's the thing. Eleven and a half million people
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: live in Yui. Eleven and a half million people. Guess
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: how many of those are citizens? About one one million
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: are citizens? So which culture do you mean? The culture
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: of the ten plus million expatriates, many of them from
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: places like Pakistan and India who are there just to
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: build the place. But some are bits of Americans and
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: Europeans and Russians and Ukrainians and you know all over
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: the world, Africans and all over the world who are
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: who are living the good life, benefiting from the low
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: taxes that you know the Yui has. Or do you
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: mean the one million actual citizens? And again I don't know,
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: right the one million actual citizens. My guess is that
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: you know a big chunk of them at least. The
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: most successful among them are probably pro the Yue getting
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: close to Israel because they want the business contacts. They're
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: very cosmopolitan, they're probably pretty secular. But is a majority
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: of them is a majority, let's let's ask, let's see
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: what thinks. So I asked that how many of them
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: it estimates Islamists and so so it's really ought to tell.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: The ruling elite clearly won's close relationship with Israel. I
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: don't know what the other citizens do, and I have
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: no idea what the expatriots wants. I mean, certainly the
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: European expatriots probably want closer ties with Israel, but the
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know about the Pakistani and the Indian ones,
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: particularly the Pakistani one. So it's it's very hard to tell.
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: All right. The d I mean uas banned the Muslim
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: Brotherhood uh and uh. You know, it did have a
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: Islamist movement inside, but it's it's not a very significant one,
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: and it any signs of radicalization and the government clamps
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: down on them. So generally the government has crushed organized Islamism.
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: So the question is, among the citizens of the UE,
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: how many of them are secretly Islamist and I don't know.
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: You know, most EU citizens calely are Muslims overwhelming majority,
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: and many are probably socially conservative, and Islam is still
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: central to the national identity. But I don't know how
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: many of them, you know, hate Israel for example. I
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: just don't know, Mary Beans. Why do high schoolers bully
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: each other? Well, because high school is where you're testing
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: out kind of your social skills, if you will, and
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: your social where you are socially and kind of the
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: high schools when you get these beginnings of these hierarchies
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: and these cliques and groups and tribes and whatever. And
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: I think some kids who get into high school who
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: are seeing well, can I, if they're strong, can I
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: get away with just relying on physical force to dominate
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: everybody else? Uh? You know, my my other people in
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: my social millieu is force, legit is force? Can I
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: Can I use force effectively? And the extremity? And they're
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: testing it out? Uh? And uh other kids resist, but uh,
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: you know, to the extended bullies are trying to figure
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: out a life lesson And some of them will stay
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: bullies for the rest of their lives and some of
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: them will not. But it's it's just a. It's just
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: a it's it's the kids who don't know how to
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: deal with one another in a social context. And you know,
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: if they've made wrong decisions in their lives, the way
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: they've been brought up helps this. Some of them are
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: going to say, yeah, might make right. Let me try this,
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: let me see if that works, let me see if
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: that'sifications Christus. I am surprised US economy has not gone
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: into a session yet given the chaos inflicted by Trump,
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: or we may have not seen the full effects of
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: it yet. Yeah, I don't know, but we haven't gone
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: into a session, and there's no indication of a recession coming.
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: The fact is that the American economy is very, very
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: very resilient. People have people have jobs, they are working hard,
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: they're spending. The amount of regulations businesses face has definitely
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: been decreased by the Trump administration, so taxes might go up,
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: prices might go up, so wages also going up, and
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: people continue to be productive, and essential freedoms are sustained
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: and maintained. So it's it is pretty and the Fed
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: hasn't done anything egregiously wrong in the last few years,
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: and as a consequence, the economy keeps just chugging along,
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: chugging a lot loan descent. Wouldn't economic forces ultimately make
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: only a car and using only driverless taxis be priced
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: about the same. Why why would it be priced about
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: the same. It might, but then it might, but it's
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: hard to tell. So if it's cheaper to take an
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: uber to take a driver lest taxi, then people stop
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: buying cars and they're more driverless taxis, which seem that
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: that would at some point you reach some kind of
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: equilibrium price, But I'm not sure why it would drive.
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: You know, the demand full cars will go down prices
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: and cars will go down, but they can only go
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: down so much even if that were true, although you'd
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: have to take into account the convenience. I think the
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: thing about driverless cause is the convenience. And of course
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: when you talk about the cost of a car, it's
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: not just about the price, it's the maintenance, it's the
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: inconvenience of having to drive it. The nice thing about
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: a driverless cars you can watch videos while the car
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: is driving. So I'd have to think about it what
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: the economics, How the economics would actually work over time
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: to change the economic prices, But it could be that
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: a lot of people would drive, would buy driverless cars,
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: and when they're not using them, send them off to
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: be taxis. I think that is the plan for Tesla.
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: You buy a Tesla and when you're not using it,
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: you change the mode and you put it on a
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: taxi mode, and then it's available and you can actually
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: make some income because you're the owner. So you make
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: some money off of the Tesla while you're sleeping, oh,
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: while you're at work, and then whenever you want it back,
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: you flip the switch and it's back there. I actually
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: think that'll be a big part of the model, but
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: it's going to be interesting to see how the whole
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: thing evolves. Neil, lots of economic changes happening in Canada
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: under Connie. Can you dedicate some time to explain them
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: when you are back home? Yeah, I mean, I'd have
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: to do some research because I'm not really that familiar
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: with Canadian economy or with the bunch of things that
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: Connie is doing. He's opening Canada up to the rest
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 1: of the world. That is all positive, but I'm sure
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: he's just doing a bunch of negative things. Emil could
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: Iran descend into a war Laudism like China during the
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: interwar period. I mean, certainly that's a possibility. I actually
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: don't think that's a likely possibility. I don't think the
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: majority of Uranians want that. I think Iran is an
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: ancient civilization that has a certain cohesion, even if it's
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: got a bunch of different ethnic groups in it. Partially,
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: it depends on how it falls apart, who comes to
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: replace it, whether there is a galvanizing figure that people
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: can rally around, whether freedom is an option that any
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: of the political entities are willing to offer the Uranian people.
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: So I think it depends on a lot of things.
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: I don't think that's the most likely scenario. Although it's
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: certainly possible that every ethnic group or every IRGC commander
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: starts their own army and there's a big fight. I
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: think ultimately, you know, the Ranians will not want that.
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: I think it's too too horrific for them. Jeffrey Millis
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: is what's a twenty dollars summary of Rousseau? Oh God,
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, basically, Husso what is he? What is Russeau? Russou?
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: You know, does the little things right? He rejects reasons
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: as particularly ficacious and important. He rejects capitalism or what
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: looks like capitalism money, you know money, economy with finance,
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: and you know freedom. He's a central planner, and he
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: rejects individualism and is really embracing collectivism, you know. So
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: on all counts, he's bad. He's terrible, really really bad.
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: He believes that man in a state of nature is
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 1: the opposite of what Hobbs thinks. Hobb thinks man in
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: a state of nature, his life is short, British something,
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: you know, so it's horvable, and that we enter into
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: societies partially, that the entry into society civilizes us. Who
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: still thinks the opposite. He thinks that in a state
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: of nature we are perfect, peaceful, wonderful, in tuned with nature,
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: never needing anything happy, and that civilization destroys us. Civilization
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 1: destroys the capacity to be happy, it destroys our virtue,
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: and that civilization leads to violence and crime. He actually
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: thinks that crime, for example, is a is a consequence
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: of civilization, of civilizing institutions. In our natural states, we
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: do not revert to violence. And he's used to justify
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: the defund the police agenda. Right, defund the police is
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: the assumption that if we got rid of the institutions
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: like police, people would stop being violent because the only
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: reason they're violent is because of their frustration around because
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: of the existence of the police. Somehow the police are
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: preventing them from being their true selves. So I think
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 1: that's a I think that's a reasonable summary of Rousseau.
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 1: It's all almost nuanced, obviously, But he was a bad
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: guy and really a guy inside the Enlightenment undermining it
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: from the beginning. And he started out as friends with
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: a lot of the Enlightenment figures like the Drove, but
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: over time, over time it was became distant from them,
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: obviously because intellectually, ideologically they grew apart in significant ways.
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: His first major essay, for which You Want a Prize,
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: was about the destructive nature of civilization of science of reason,
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: why it was harmful, was about other higher ups in
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: Putin's military getting fed up with him. Yet, I mean,
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't think anybody knows except the
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 1: higher ups in Putin's thing. You would think so. And
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 1: generally Putin's been relatively quiet recently, and and generally there's
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: been less news out of Russia, so maybe, but nothing
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 1: to suggest anything's imminent, but you would think so, given
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: how badly it's going on the front lines, and how
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 1: horrobably it's going for the economy, and the fact that
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: one point three one point four million people have been
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: taking out of the workforce by being killed or injured,
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 1: and as I mentioned, the head of the Central Bank
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 1: of Russia mentioned this as a problem. One point five
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: million people leaving Russia and at one point three million
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: people getting heard in the world dark Matt, thank you
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: for the support. That's a sticker. Except thank you john Way,
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: Thank you Lyran, thank you. All right, I appreciate it. Guys.
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: Thank you Spinger Bell I see in Tessa. I think
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 1: I think they were already. But all right, guys, thank you,
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: really appreciate it. We'll see. I might do a show tomorrow.
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: We'll see about that. Probably it will be later in
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: the day if I do. But yeah, that is that
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: is it for me for today. Have a great rest
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 1: of your weekend, and uh see you tomorrow on Monday.
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: Bye everybody. M