Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / PGA Round 2 Showdown | February 29, 2023 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

Transcript

PGA Round 2 Showdown | February 29, 2023 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:05
All systems going clear for lifting. What's up everyone, Tyler Tambaline here aka
0:38
Totagg and Tambo back for another edition the Round two Showdown Show here on the
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Mail Media Network collaboration with ship it Nation. You guys can do us a
0:47
favor on the way in smash that like button, subscribe to the channel,
0:50
let us know in the comments what you had going on today. We got
0:53
some stuff to go through here. First solo show in a little while,
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so I'm gonna be doing the solo show this way. We're gonna try and
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get them out immediate after the round ends or within range right now. I
1:03
think last I looked my Canadian guy Ben Silverman, I think was one of
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the last guys on the course. He's moving to eighteen now. Both sides
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are so looks like we'll get into it here pretty quickly. But we'll be
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back tomorrow night. I'll be doing the Round three Showdown show over on the
1:18
ship it Nation YouTube station, so get over there if you guys haven't already,
1:21
make sure to subscribe to that. And then also we'll be back on
1:23
Saturday for the Round four Showdown show with my guy Hoopster. We're just all
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gonna be doing as much as we can right now to fill in and cover
1:32
all these shows for you guys. Appreciate you out there just sticking with us.
1:36
Let's look at it though, Let's see. I know we had a
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pretty good day over at ship at Nation. I didn't want to jinx it
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or mush it as they like to say, over there. I want to
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see though real quick because I know our guy was winning the main one there.
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I love Rory up top, and I think it's over. Yeah,
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it's definitely over. So we were looking at cut sweats data. Shout out
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to Nelson Adcock next World Champ. He's in fourth as of right now.
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But pull that up and just see you got a little bit of stuff going
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on. We're gonna get through all of it. I'm gonna pull up the
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weather, gonna go through the pricing, look at it in the optimizer,
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go through the tears, talk about all of that. How we're gonna handle
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it going into tomorrow. But first things first, let me pull this one
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up here for you guys. Switch it over, go zoom it up and
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Jay Money eighty seven is I love Rory says, not bad for four lineups,
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and we played the early Wave I think a lot of people did shut
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up to dat fu king guy says mother father's great tips yesterday helped me hit
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green in the showdown. We talked through this last night, went through the
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strategy and pretty much said that exact same thing, like, it doesn't matter
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if you have one hundred and fifty one hundred whatever you want to put in.
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If you're playing the angle of the morning wave and getting after it,
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you're gonna have to just hope you got the right guys. Clearly, I
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love Rory got the job done, had the right guys and then hang on
2:52
and hold. I know he was checking out the Cut Sweats Live Showdown simulation
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data all afternoon watching it down the stretch. I think it was actually m
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Pendle, who's an incredible player, had Tom kim go with the bogie free
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round and the birdie on eighteen and it just came up just short, but
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it cost him a little bit from second to third, and then Nelson himself
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next World Chap. I think he had Olison and would have needed like a
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three birdies down the stretch and the streak or whatever to make it happen,
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and did not come through there, but it still got fourth. Place to
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shout up to Nelson. But yeah, we're gonna hop right into this.
3:23
Got a few other things. Do you want to remind everyone it's back.
3:28
I updated it the first time in a long time. I pulled this out
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on the old ex Twitter machine. But Eric Cole take the plane. It
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was incredibly bad yesterday for him. I think everyone was surprised to see his
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ownership come in. We had him eighteen nineteen in places, twenty in other
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places. We came in at twenty four percent. Ends up going seven over
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on the day. Lost six strokes on approach across one, two, three,
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four, It's like five or six really bad holes for him. Still
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made three birdies, but man, bad day. So first time in a
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long time I've sent somebody on a plane on a Thursday. Only one in
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the history ever got this wrong and had to walk it back. So see
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how it goes with mister Eric Cole. We'll talk more on him in a
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second. You want to remind everyone quickly up front. Today is the last
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day to get in the giveaway, and I changed it yesterday on the show
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I talked about it. You can go over to mine at Totag and Tambo.
4:15
You just have to like repost and then follow at ship it Nation,
4:19
and we were just gonna give away three copies of the actual PGADFS process course
4:25
that Hoop and I did, but then we decided because it comes free with
4:29
every membership, I'm actually gonna give away three monthly membership. So if you're
4:32
looking to get in at ship nation dot com, go to this giveaway right
4:36
now, follow the quick two to three steps here and get the job done
4:40
that way. If you want a three mini course, just the showdown portion,
4:44
which is what you're here for today, the Round two show you can
4:46
go to ship at nation dot com. Simply put in your email sign up,
4:50
we'll send it over. It's about fifteen twenty minutes where you'll get just
4:54
that portion of the course, not the entire thing. If you guys do
4:57
want to get it on the action, you can check it out now.
4:59
Go to PGA. When you get to the site, click the banner.
5:01
You can use this code Coop fifteen. We're also announcing this tomorrow, so
5:06
it's the last chance to get in with code. Hoop fifteen gets you fifteen
5:11
percent off any plan. So if you want to get the annual for just
5:15
Golf, you want to get the monthly for like thirty three dollars, whatever
5:16
it is you want to go to all access, the monthly drops down to
5:19
fifty eight. You get all the sports. We're gonna have MMA, NASCAR,
5:23
We've got MBA tonight, NHL, all kinds of stuff going on,
5:27
and then annual drops to five oh nine. If you just said forget it,
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I'm gonna done pay for these other sites. Just want to get in
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with you guys. We'll show off more later, but let's hop into this
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one and let's go right into the pricing the tears. I'll pull up the
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weather first. Any questions you guys have, you can throw them into the
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chat. But our weather guy over at ship a nation deep fat. He
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throws it in. We put it up on the site under the stone.
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He had looked at it, and I'm seeing the same thing right now.
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There is wins throughout the day. Tomorrow they did sort of push up a
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little bit, but it does still look like it's gonna be a little less
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windy in the morning, so gonna look to get that attack it that way.
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I don't think it's horrible though, if you want to put some guys
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in. There was some low rounds in the afternoon. I'll go more on
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that in a second, but just to say, if you do want to
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play guys in the morning, I call them like, that's a six to
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zero if you go all in. But I'm saying I think you can play
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some five ones and get away with the two. You can obviously get away
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with more if you land on the perfect spot. But I like to play
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my lineups this way, kind of how our guy I love, Rory did
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today and just get after it that way. So we'll talk through some of
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it. Who are some of the guys we can get different with down there?
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The pricing did stay similar up top, like Rory's twelve to one.
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You go to cam Young drops off down to ten six and down from there.
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But as you see at the bottom, no five K range. They
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did this last week and showdown as well. I would guess to be honest,
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it's like their software or whatever the back end where they just probably don't
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have it set up and showdown yet to have five K pricing. Maybe I'm
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wrong, but usually that's the way DraftKings does things. So I just want
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to see here and Ross just said they didn't even finish the round today.
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What was it. I didn't get the update here yet. Play suspended due
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to darkness. So really ridiculous to be honest that this continues to happen.
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But I will say it doesn't really matter, Like if you go to this
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round here right now, just let me have a quick look. I had
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it up here just two seconds ago. It's what do we got If it's
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all these guys, I don't believe it probably would be because both sides,
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but Perez McIntyre, Silverman, Rasmus, Hoguard, Brayden, Shaddick, Pierson,
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Coodie, Toasty and Lyndheim are all through seventeen. So it's not gonna
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be anything special for the morning. Like everyone's pretty much done. It's whatever.
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It doesn't affect our guy winning it or anything like that. I can
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tell you that just looking at that stuff so probably affects some people somewhere.
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But just want to let you guys know the information as we get it.
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So that was one thing. The other thing just to go back to it
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too, pulling it up here on data Golf just so you guys can get
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it. Was the overall setup. So the wave, the morning wave went
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almost what was it, point eight or so of a stroke's almost a full
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stroke better by going out in the morning, better on whole three. It
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looks like the afternoon still got the best of the To call it new and
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improved to all ten, I know there's a lot of disappointment. They're probably
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not improved to most as they wanted it. But yeah, either way,
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there was lower scores. People aren't happy with it. I get it,
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but you know, we got to play with what we got at stake.
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That's how we always do it. So is what it is. I mean,
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you look at last year, it's this year overall, I can tell
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is way lower. But if you look at last year, like the way
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it went like Billy Horschel, Bramlet, somebody else, we're all up at
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the top. They basically shot the equivalent of a I think it was a
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six five under last year, so be a six under this year. Like,
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it's not that far off from what we're seeing at the top. I
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know we've seen this certain times majors, things like this, where there's clear
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separation at the very top and then down from there it changes. But either
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way, I would just say, like, you know, you can only
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play with what's put in front of you. I guess one thing to remember
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in the back of our minds that I didn't really fully think of or remember
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either is new sponsor can sometimes mean new setup. Let's seal something a little
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bit different. They said, I don't necessarily love it myself and to teach
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their own whatever you like out there, but I will say sometimes when we
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get these new sponsors, we do see a little bit of a different scoring
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setup. So that's just something to keep note for next year, for other
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events throughout this year, all the stuff as we see different sponsors hop on,
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let's hop into it. If you guys don't have the solver, you
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can go over to get it through ship at Nation. If you go over
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here, go to ship Nation, go projections the solver. It loads up
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this page with our logo at the top, and then as it states,
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we have two more new sports to add now with NASCAR and college football.
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But it does come pre loaded with the ship it Nation player projections and the
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ownership projections as well. So whatever you sign up for and get in on,
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you can get everything here and the one thing I like about it,
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and it'll be better as the week goes on. It doesn't show it here,
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but if we just go back to classic for two seconds. We added
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this yesterday just so you guys can see it. We did add into the
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cut percentage and the win equity, so if you're doing your handbuilds and stuff
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like that, you can have an idea of what that looks like if you
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go back to showdown. You'll see that in round four as well when we
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get there. But for right now, let's move to round two. And
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the nice focus here is that we have all our tea time. So I
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was actually showing this off last night. I mean, sometimes everybody does it
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different, but if you want just a little bit of process going through it
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on how I would use something like this. The way I always do my
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playerpool is I'll turn everybody off. If I am wave stacking or going through
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a weather wave or something like that, you can just switch it up and
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say, okay, I want all the guys in the morning, and then
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I don't know, if you have two monitors or on your phone and your
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computer, your laptop and you computer, whatever it looks like, you can
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just set it up so that you sort of know who you're picking as you
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go down throughout. So for me, this will be updated later, but
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just to show off something else. The degenerate seventy five, who all of
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our thoughts and players are with right now. Everybody knows this, you know,
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sort of let a little bit of health issues going on, taking care
10:39
of himself. We're covering off as many shows as we can in our own
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way, try and help out while he's out. He's usually doing our Round
10:46
three and Round four shows on top of the Wednesday emergency stream. But the
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stone is still being taken care of. And this is an incredible tool that
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he invented, the best tool in PGADFS. Now this is for last week,
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but I'm still gonna show it off because it will be updated again for
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tonight. He'll be updated round two through round four. But if you want
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the golfers their prices on both sides, what we think their ownership is going
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to be in showdowns, specifically, change their projections and ceiling, which are
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also adjusted based on situational items like the weather and the wave. And do
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we think tomorrow's round is going to be point eight strokes better or whatever it
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may be. It gets adjusted for that. You see what they shot in
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the previous round. Their tea times are right on here. Their win percentage,
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their top five percentage, which is not as important just a single round
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to showdown, but does come into play heavily in round four. And then
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the biggest thing, though, is all the data is right on here,
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some of their regression stats. They're round four, you know, in this
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case with round four, but it'll have their history for other rounds. The
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true approach, which is really powerful on a course like this because it actually
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will take out you know, here's one example. We're gonna get to this
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guy when we go through the stream. But Lucas Glover today three under bogie
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free round still looks really good on paper because he still gained almost on approach,
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lost almost a stroke and a half with the poddect. People will go
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to him forget the ownership there for a second, but just to look at
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it on whole three, he actually lost almost two strokes on approach on that
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par five and still gained almost a stroke on approach overall. So when you're
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looking at that, that's what the true approach sorta will do for you,
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where it's gonna kick out some of these outliers and then you're gonna see someone
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like him look even better because it was really just one bad houle and shut
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up to Steven. You know, James was in the discord today and said,
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he said, man, I haven't fed that guy in a week,
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But I said, don't worry because our guy go collect is always out there.
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He got the donuts and the coffee. He's taking care of the guy
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in the back. So shout out to you appreciate that and you're bringing that
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up. But yeah, this tool will have all that on it. So
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what I do is I'll have this tool on my other monitor. I'll load
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up back to the solver here, which I'll go to and we'll start going
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through these tiers and I'll just have it where, you know, maybe by
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price to start her to start, I can find out who I want.
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Because the stone is organized by price. You can download the excel file as
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well and then be able just to sort it your own way by tea time
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and match it up. But I just choose to do it this way.
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I'll turn on, Okay, I want Russell Henley or he could Eric Cole.
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You go to a guy like him, right, you put him in
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there. You can do that. They have those tee times. But if
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I see something on the stone that I want I'll fill this out. I'll
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get everybody on there. You can change it to just your selected players,
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so your pool is up, and then you can start to go into your
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rules or generate your lineups or whatever that might be. So I definitely think
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it's a cool way to use it. It's not for everybody, but it's
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definitely one way to look at it, just to be of a little bit
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different. So for this stream, we are just going to go through the
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tiers by the pricing. We'll do like ninety five hundred and up to start.
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If you guys have questions, definitely could throw him into the chat.
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I saw Todd Kyle already asked about a guy, and I'll pull stats as
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we go for each of them. But said, we're Bez and Spencon the
13:50
seven K donkey chock to avoid for week long? Are they both good bounce
13:54
back candidates? Definitely we're in that donkey chock range. If I just pull
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up those guys real quick. Suspenson three birdies today left all three of the
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power fives out there. I'm not sure yet. Let's see here. If
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we go to Spencon overhear his price tag seventy seven hundred and goes out early
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in round two. Make sure I'm on it. Yeah, I am so.
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I definitely Swenson would be a bounce back candidate for me. Who's the
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other guy? Said? Was Bez? So Bez went one under today,
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gained almost three strokes with the putter, took care of two of the three
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power fives, and then overall four birdies. But I think he's fine.
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Like, if you look at it again, he has bad approach stats when
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you pull him up, but it's one to two and a half holes kind
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of if you want to put it all together to say that he could definitely
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bounce back. So I think either of them would be options that you could
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go with. But just going through it here again, you know, Rory
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Soliday, Cam Young Soliday. The nice thing about this strategy where you know,
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sometimes people say it's like a I know, I hear it all the
14:48
time. Oh it's a lazy approach, just gonna play all the morning guys,
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and that's all all they're gonna say. That's people gonna mention, well,
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we have a reason to believe it's going to be in a good spot.
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But it's a win win because you know, and it made me a
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lose in the end if you don't get there with it. But what I'm
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saying is if you do look at these rounds, like obviously Rory looks good
15:05
and it's Roy McElroy, but he also went out in the perfect conditions this
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morning that we just talked about, played almost a stroke better, Cam Young,
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same thing. So while they're flipping, you're hoping that some ownership gets
15:16
attached to them. But again, if these guys ended up being your five
15:18
ones in the example I gave earlier, you don't have to follow my strategy,
15:22
make your own. But I'm just saying if you were going with it
15:26
and you have five guys that you like going out in the morning, but
15:28
then you want to attach a Roy McElroy, of course that's fine. Like
15:31
nobody's ever gonna talk you off that you use a guy like Rory into your
15:35
lineups here, you got to turn him on to put him in. You
15:37
still have seventy six hundred left even though there is no five K price range,
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there's a ton of plays down here that you could go to or guys
15:43
that you could put in. So I got no problem with those guys.
15:46
But just going through from ninety five hundred up there's not much to choose from
15:50
if you are going the morning tea times. So that would be my first
15:52
tip going into tomorrow is I would not care at all about salary being left
15:58
on the table. So if you got thirty five left on the table,
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that's fine. I mean, there's gonna be upgrades and you're gonna say,
16:03
but why, But it's because there's one, two, three, four guys
16:07
above nine k that are in this range, and you're probably not gonna even
16:11
love all of them, and you're not gonna want to fully commit to them.
16:14
I don't think any of them did anything that crazy. Let's just pull
16:17
it up here and go through just those guys, just because the top range
16:19
is one people actually care quite a bit about. Well, Fitzpatrick one under.
16:23
He took care of two of the three par fives, one of them
16:26
was an eagle. Other than that, just two verdies on the card.
16:29
So nothing super spectacular there, Eric Cole. I mean you can take the
16:33
risk on him for sure, because you know he made just as many birdies
16:37
as verdies are better as Fitzpatrick today. He just threw all those doubles and
16:41
the triple. I think he had a triple. Yeah, in the card
16:44
as well, so two doubles, a triple, three, other bogies.
16:47
But it just depends on if you think a guy like him is gonna go
16:49
out and give a shit or not. Like I don't see any chance.
16:52
Then he makes the cut regardless of what his round looks like. So will
16:56
he do go in the water as much though? No, So I think
16:56
if you're playing, you know you know you're gonna get him at almost loaded
17:00
no ownership. I have no problem going to Eric Cole if you want to
17:03
get different in the pool. Just again, stats are horrible. We know
17:07
it, we see it, but other people are gonna say the same thing.
17:10
Henley really interesting round. I went back to check just to make sure
17:14
he did start on one, so he had nothing going on eight through eleven.
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He goes birdie, birdie, birdie, birdie, four in a row
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and then has nothing going on to round it out either. He left one
17:25
to two of the three par five's out there, lost two strokes on approach,
17:30
but it was really just two holes whole fourteen and whole three. So
17:33
I actually like going back to him. He's a week long donkey chock,
17:37
So if you want to go back to him or he might have been a
17:37
chock or aunt chock, but you could go back to him definitely. He's
17:41
here at ninety five hundred. And then Tom Kim, believe was a three
17:45
under bogie three round. I'm just gonna pull it up to check noses bothered
17:48
me and running a little bit. I apologize, guys, but just to
17:52
go through it here. Tom Kim is three under bogie free like I thought
17:56
on the round, and he took care of two of the three par fives.
17:57
Solid stats across the board though, So again, I think Tom Kim
18:02
would be the popular morning guy at just ninety two hundred. It's easy to
18:03
go back to him here, makes perfect sense. So I think that's gonna
18:07
be an option that people choose. So Tom Kim looks like a guy that
18:11
people will go to. Keep it going here and go down. See what
18:15
this next range looks like. So Kirk, Mitchell, Connors, who else
18:19
do we got? We'll just go eight thousand up to ninety four hundred.
18:23
So who did I miss here? Benny Ann don't care, Tom Kim.
18:26
We just talked about Steven Yager missed like a four foot putt that I know
18:30
is costly for some. So that's brutal. Lowry and Kirk. Kirk definitely
18:34
was going off early, went off early, and was going off early.
18:38
I think he ended up putting a bogey on the card. Yeah, he
18:41
started on the back nine with a streak ten, eleven, twelve, righted
18:45
of the gate, makes a birdie on seventeen or sorry, a bogie on
18:48
seventeen, bounces back on eighteen. Really slow front nine for his back nine
18:52
when he went through it. But don't love his tea time. But again
18:55
looked good. Stats are solid across the board. Who's the other guy said?
18:57
I was gonna look up for you, Lowry. Lowry was solid across
19:00
the board as well, pretty much with the stats. A lot of putter,
19:03
but solid off the tee, solid on approach, solid overall. Really
19:07
one four birdies and an eagle. I think again, if you're picking some
19:11
of the afternoon guys there five, but let's look at Sung Jay. He
19:15
was a guy that went out there one, two, three, four birdies
19:18
two one of the par fives left out there, two bogeys and a double.
19:22
But one thing about Sung Jay I want to note to you is that
19:25
while he looks bad on paper, on approach, whole fifteen. He lost
19:29
over two strokes on approach, so he would have been positive on the day
19:32
if just that doesn't happen. I know, if you know, what's the
19:36
one of my aunt head nuts? You be my uncle like that. Yeah,
19:37
we get the ifs and ends and butts, but just to say it,
19:41
I think that's something that you would want to keep in mind. I'm
19:42
fine going back to the well on sung Jay Min lu Lee one two,
19:48
three, four birdies and an eagle left a couple of streak opportunities out there.
19:52
He did take care of the par fives, but he's kind of the
19:53
opposite. You go look at him and on paper, if you're just scanning
19:56
the stats and pulling up the guys that did well on approach and lost with
20:00
putter and did a and had a good round, he's gonna look awesome.
20:03
He had a four under round, he gained almost a stroke and a half
20:06
on approach and he lost with the putter. That's like the telltale sign of
20:08
what you want. And I'm fine mixing him into your pool. I'm not
20:11
saying to go off of him, but the eagle, which was the majority
20:15
of his four underscoring, and his approach stats gaining over one and a half
20:18
strokes on approach. He gained almost one point seven just on that one eagle.
20:22
So that's the key that you have to take away is it doesn't always
20:26
mean that it's gonna be that. So you know Nick's already in here talking
20:30
about his call play, call win and me all the money tomorrow. I
20:32
think in showdown, I like it, like again, just it's one round.
20:36
Nothing he did today matters, so I'm fine with it. The thing
20:40
is Eli nine fan thirteen less than two percent. If you think he doesn't
20:44
bitch quit, that's the thing you have to know. That's the risk.
20:47
But that's to me, that's worth the risk when the ownership is gonna be
20:49
nothing, because if he bitch quits and it's not even then if you play
20:52
a guy that you think is gonna do good and they suck it just because
20:56
they had good stats today and they look perfect on paper, think about Eric
20:59
cole Use, the same guy, same concept, classic slate, looked good,
21:04
looked really good, looked even better than the eighteen percent people had him
21:07
projected for it to get to twenty four percent, and goes out and plays
21:11
like absolute shit. So that would be one thing I would note just to
21:15
say that, but let me see here. Gotta see too, because NBA
21:19
locks in ten minutes, and one of the things about just doing the show
21:22
immediately when the round ends, I just want to see if I needed to
21:25
make any changes here. It's playing a little single entry action tonight. But
21:29
so far, so good, So let s keep it rolling. Let's go
21:33
through here. You know that concept, though, definitely would stand out to
21:37
me. Where tomorrow, who gives a shit, He's two percent. If
21:38
he blows it, fine, if he doesn't. If then he's in your
21:42
mix at two percent owned or something, or three percent owner or whatever he
21:45
ends up coming in at. Everybody wanted him in round one, but they
21:48
don't want him in round two because of a bad round one. It's not
21:52
to say it's going to be the same conditions different possibly all these different factors.
21:56
So back to him, I was just fine on that concept or that
21:59
thought. If he did want to go there, let's keep it moving,
22:00
let's go down through. Jerry, matt shut up to my guy, Matthew.
22:04
He says, is Gary Woodland back. Let's go look him up.
22:07
We'll get to the range soon. But I like sometimes just looking these things
22:10
up one, two, three, four, five, six seven birdies,
22:14
left one of the par five's out there. He did have a double on
22:18
the card, but man, he definitely looks back one two, three,
22:21
four, five six seven holes really solid on approach. And he's another example,
22:26
Oh you know, his approach is just okay. He looks point five,
22:30
you know, like people look it up point five on approach. It's
22:32
nothing that crazy. And he only went one under. But we don't care
22:34
about the score. We care about the score ring and that's what it comes
22:37
down to in showdowns. So one, two, three, four, five,
22:41
six seven birdies, like I talked about, left a really good streak
22:45
opportunity out there. On two, lost almost a stroke with the putter just
22:48
on that one hole which would have connected one and three. What else he
22:52
lost another one there too, there was something else one of the par fives.
22:55
Yeah, the last par five made bogie on it. So I think
22:57
he's fine. What is what's his tea time tomorrow? Just out of curiosity,
23:02
Not that it matters, man, he's out early sixty eight hundred.
23:04
I definitely think he's interesting for showing out as well. And what I was
23:07
gonna add about the approach as well, it only shows point five he had
23:10
between whole seven and hole eleven. He lost over two strokes on approach just
23:15
on those two holes. So what's up, Charlie? How you doing?
23:18
Man? Just just keep putting your questions in the chat if you have any
23:19
for sure? So, oh there is, Charlie says, I like Luke
23:22
List, so let's have a look at Luke List. I know Luke List
23:26
goes out early because I played him in some pm AM stacks and he had
23:30
three birdies left two of the power five's out there. Another guy very similar
23:33
when I just talked about, oh you know, it's almost the exact same.
23:37
Point three on approach not that good, only one under on the round.
23:41
But then you go and look holes three and whole sixteen is almost two
23:45
strokes of approach that he lost. That could have been the difference. So
23:49
and you missed this part, Nick, you sorry you did not miss this
23:52
part. Good call out. The lottery horrible as always, but fifty k
23:56
up top. So if you do want a chance at fifty K, I
23:59
won't say that going back. If you didn't catch this part. Off the
24:03
top, I said shut out to our guy. I love Rory, but
24:06
the best part about our guy, I love Rory and that logo being up
24:08
top member winning is four entries only gets the job done. The one thing
24:15
about the lottery, when you're playing a wave and you're hoping that it goes
24:18
your way. I said this last night when we did our chat, is
24:21
it doesn't matter if you have it's the same anything. If you have five
24:23
hundred lineups but you stacked the PM wave, you probably weren't getting up there
24:27
whether you had five hundred, one thousand, whatever it was me you can
24:30
only put one fifty. But my point is if you're playing a wave advantage
24:33
and hoping that something goes your way, and it ends up going that way,
24:37
it really doesn't matter how many lineups you guys have in there. So
24:40
I think that was kind of the cool takeaway. You can do that tomorrow
24:42
as well. If it ends up going favorable for us, it's fifty k
24:47
instead of twenty K. So I'm not as opposed to it. I just
24:51
wouldn't As far as contest selection, bankroll management, sustainability, everything, Our
24:56
guy Djen always talks about not the best when it comes to that the ten
25:00
eighteen max his baby is still out there that looks really good, but they're
25:03
played cautious on it. They put it twenty K total prize pool, only
25:07
two two K two hundred for first and ten. The five point fifty five
25:11
isn't horrible, but again not the bankroll that most people have to go out
25:15
and play. And then the two fifty is I believe the two fifty four
25:18
mats, which I like, but it's smaller than usual, so just something
25:21
to note to keep in mind as you go through. But yeah, the
25:23
contest selection is not the best, but you know, there's always positive light
25:26
you can find in everything, so I try and find it in something like
25:30
that. Let's keep it going here. I think Norrin was another guy I
25:33
wanted to talk about. He's coming up in this range. So Norrin went
25:37
four under. Let's see kind of interesting, so one two three holes were
25:44
the majority of what he gained on approach. He did have five birdies and
25:48
an eagle and a streak and left one of the part five's out there,
25:52
so a really high chance, and you know, I can see going back
25:56
to him tomorrow. But another interesting thing is he also lost almost two strokes
25:59
on approach, just on whole fifteen, So excuse me, it could have
26:02
been even better for Norn I think so. I definitely like him. It's
26:06
hard to follow up a good round, but when he had the good round
26:08
in what was the wave, that was almost a stroke worse. He now
26:12
gets to go out in the morning. And we must be getting close to
26:17
Eric van ruyan On here because Rinn is stepping in saying help everyone as well.
26:22
Let me translate that for you guys and let you know what it means.
26:25
It means I hope you're well. Also, by the way, a
26:27
reminder, evr is still the man and shot five under. That's exactly what
26:30
he meant with that comment. I can translate it now. I know where
26:33
you're going, old sheep dog. He's got the take on him. He
26:37
went one, two, three, four, five, six birdies and an
26:41
eagle with a streak while leaving one of the power five's out there. Another
26:45
guy that's gonna show it, like again prime example. I'm jumping ahead.
26:48
But it's fine. He goes out in the morning. Don't hate it.
26:52
Most people won't chase this round, and that's fine. But the reason most
26:55
people won't chase it is twofold. They'll say, lost strokes on approach and
27:00
gained almost four with the putter. It is true. That's what you'll see
27:03
on the stats if you just look at them on the surface. The second
27:07
part, okay, let's do the first part and finish it out with that
27:10
said, there's two holes here, whole thirteen and really whole seventeen. He
27:15
lost almost two strokes on approach just across those two holes. If that showed
27:18
up any different, then you'd say, Wow, that was there. I
27:22
don't think people are gonna deep dive and look into it as much. But
27:23
then it's twofold because, like I said, if you look at it from
27:26
the other perspective, people say, all right, Tambo. Even if that's
27:30
the case, even if you want to give him those strokes on approach,
27:33
he's a loser and he can't do that again with the putter. It's what
27:36
I always say. People confuse this every every week. Also often I'm not
27:41
saying he's gonna gain almost four with the putter again, but again he doesn't
27:42
have to. What if he gains one point five with the putter, but
27:45
he doesn't lose that one point five on approach and he still puts up four
27:49
birdies and a streak or five birdies a streak, four birdies, a streak
27:53
in an eagle. Anything could happen again tomorrow and he could still come through.
27:56
He left the power five out there. There was three really bad holes,
28:00
one extremely bad hole, losing almost two one approach, like I talked
28:03
about, So there is other ways that you can still get him in there
28:06
and make it happen. And what we got to hope is that people that
28:08
are just looking at the surface stats aren't doing it that way, aren't going
28:12
with them because of that, and are just doing it their way and not
28:15
considering that. Let's look up some of these other early guys. Let's look
28:18
up Rose, Hogy, Todd, Rose Hogy, Todd Pendrith. Let's see
28:26
Rose Rose one, two, three, four birdies left a couple street opportunities
28:30
out there. Only one bad hole was a double another guy, So that
28:34
double bogee cost him almost two strokes on approach or he would look really good.
28:37
So I like Rose for sure. HOGI was the next one. I
28:41
said. HOGI is the one that people will go to, and for good
28:45
reason. I mean, he gained almost two strokes on approach. It was
28:47
pretty even across the board, and he definitely lost over two strokes with the
28:52
putter left a par five out there, didn't make many birdies because of that
28:56
putter though. But the thing about the putter, it was really evenly spread.
28:59
So a very challenging day for all Tom Hogy, Tom Cheesteak Hogy on
29:03
the greens. Who else did I want to look up? I said Todd,
29:07
Todd even parr nothing to write home about. But I think he's fine.
29:11
Left all three par fives out there and still made three birdies. So
29:15
if you were looking for some positives with Todd, I think that would be
29:18
it. And then Pendrith looks really good too. I think so one,
29:19
two, three, four, five birdies left took care of the par five's
29:23
solid on approach across the board could have been even better. Lost almost a
29:26
stroke on approach just on whole fifteen, and then lost two strokes pretty much
29:32
with the putter. Another guy like Hogy, though, is pretty even.
29:33
There was two really bad holes, holes six and nine, but the rest
29:37
was pretty even. So Pendrith is fine and probably gets a little bit a
29:41
little less ownership. Now, No, not going to this guy again,
29:45
not talking about Stanger. Well maybe we got to talk about him a little
29:47
just for Hoop's sake, what do you do two under? Why would you
29:49
ever play Eric Cole when you could just play Jimmy Stanger one, two,
29:53
three, four, five birdies left, took care of all the par fives,
29:56
solid on approach, pretty good across the board. I think he's gonna
30:00
have that afternoon tea time, but sixty four hundred. Bake that into your
30:06
analysis as well, where if you're gonna go again, you don't have to
30:08
even go with all morning guys. I'm just mentioning this my sort of idea
30:11
and strategy. But mixing in some of the afternoon guys one of the things
30:15
I would say if you're mixing in a guy off top, like we said,
30:17
like a Rory or some of the guy who gives a shit, because
30:19
these guys can all play golf in any conditions, Rory Young, whoever you
30:22
want to put in that's already had a great round one, I'm good with
30:26
it. But if if you are looking down the board, I would also
30:30
factor in price. If you're looking at a guy like Stager, I know
30:33
he's the joke of the week, but he's not. He hasn't been so
30:36
far at two under at that point four percent ownership, That We got him
30:38
at that sweet, sweet point four percent ownership that who loved. But if
30:42
you do want to go back to him, at least you know, put
30:45
him into some of your lineups. He's fine, he's sixty four hundred.
30:47
Maybe he doesn't really kill you. So yeah, we do the show in
30:51
order, and it starts with weather and we do it by pricing tier and
30:53
it's already passed that, so you guys just want to rewind back, would
30:56
appreciate it, definitely helps it. You could just go back to that part.
30:59
We go right through tier by tier as I'm doing now. So let's
31:02
keep it rolling. Let's go. Somebody mentioned earlier about Spenson and Bez already
31:07
touched on them. We touched on Nor and I think those guys are all
31:08
fine. Let's get down past Pendrith here and see some of these other guys.
31:11
If we have other ones that we're getting to by all means, bring
31:15
them up if you're sticking with us or you're live, and that'll help people
31:18
that are behind you. But Taylor, someone brought up Ben Taylor. Where's
31:22
he at in here? He is sixty one hundred, So we'll get to
31:26
that way later. But just I'll bring him up now and talking on one,
31:29
two, three, four, five birdies left the par five out there,
31:32
really messed up a streak opportunity. On four he could have made one.
31:34
There, could have made one on fifteen. I mean that those are
31:37
IFFs. Again. I just bring him up because I'm looking for any type
31:41
of data point that I can find that maybe is a little bit deeper than
31:45
others are going to dive. And that's just one thing that I'll look at
31:47
to bring it up as well. Let's go back to the range that we
31:49
were already in. It keeps resetting on me. But just to go back
31:52
here of the afternoon guys, you know, a couple here just to see
31:56
it. I think Horsell talked about him all. He should have clicked him
32:00
a lot more, would we say, you know, he was fired up
32:04
for this swing. It was gonna be impossible for people to click him.
32:07
Not that Doug Gim did horrible. Gim is three under and there's a long
32:09
way to go still tomorrow. But just to note, I mean horshell one,
32:13
two, three, four, five six birdies still left. Uh No,
32:17
took care of the par fives. I thought he left, no,
32:20
so he made a bogie on sixteen, but only only one bogey on the
32:22
entire round, and his approach very solid across the board. It wasn't just
32:27
one great hole. He played really well. His putter really solid. So
32:30
Horsell would be a guy be okay with in that afternoon wave. I know
32:34
Hadley got the highlight reel they were showing off. What'd he do? One,
32:37
two, three, four, five six birdies, took care of two
32:40
of the par fives out of three bogie free round pretty solid stats. I
32:45
don't know about backing that round up, but you know I feel good about
32:47
a guy like Horsell. There. Davis Thompson, I was keeping an eye
32:51
on too. Just let me see him real quick. He is afternoon as
32:54
well, but four under round one, two, three, four, four
32:58
birdies an eagle, took care of all the power fires pretty evenly, dispersed
33:02
on everything lost a little bit, lost a stroke in half with the putter
33:05
actually, so I think he would be fine for the afternoon as well.
33:08
Let's keep it moving here, let's go Novak Nation. We could bring him
33:13
up. He's one last afternoon guy. I'll cover from here just to see
33:15
it, to give you something. So he ended up going six under as
33:17
everybody saw even with the bogie one two, three, four, five six
33:23
five birdies an eagle and took care of the par fires pretty even across the
33:28
board on approach and even the one really good hole in fifteen it was only
33:31
gained us a stroke on approach on that hole, but he lost back half
33:35
of it on seven. So it's not the worst round, it's it's really
33:37
tough to back that kind of round up, So I definitely think that's a
33:42
bit of a challenge here, So Thompson. Someone said, I think we
33:45
just covered him. Actually da David Thompson said, Putter was horrible. Yeah,
33:47
it was legit horrible. It was two holes that cost him big time,
33:52
but all the other holes were just like hit or miss, so nothing
33:54
really there. Someone mentioned Fox. I liked Fox too. Again, only
33:59
will see two under on paper, people see really bad off the te that
34:02
was one or two hole, two holes basically about one, two, three,
34:06
four five birdies and left all three of the power fives out there.
34:08
So I actually think Fox is pretty interesting at seventy two hundred sah Kim,
34:15
I think someone brought him up earlier. Obviously had a really good round as
34:17
well, t one to get the seven under. Now sah Kim is going
34:22
out in the morning. One two three, one, two, three,
34:25
four, five birdies and an eagle bogie free round took care of the par
34:30
fives. But let me just see here, one man around the green game
34:35
was really just a couple of holes that caused that, so very solid around
34:38
the green approached one two, three, four four pretty bad holes gathered up
34:45
to about two strokes lost on approach, but overall still took care of it
34:46
with the around the green and the short game. So if you think that
34:50
can continue, one thing I definitely think Sahkim is capable of is that.
34:53
And you know, liked him a little bit for week long just because of
34:55
that reason. I think he was sixty four hundred in week long. So
34:59
just the classic Slade stuff. If you were looking at it there, that's
35:00
what you would have got, and that's why you would have been playing him.
35:04
Ben Griffin. One birdie on the entire day. It doesn't scream like
35:08
anything special for tomorrow. Did lose a bunch with the putters still slid on
35:12
approach, but man, that's you know, there's some plays that you could
35:15
just play where forget who it was today, someone said like, oh,
35:17
Corey Connors lost the bogie free and yeah, that sucks. We all want
35:21
the bogie free. I do too. But at the same time, there
35:23
was still like some haywire rounds out there where people just went nuts and still
35:29
outscored them. Even if he would have got a par on the last,
35:31
it would have been a three under three birdie, random birdie spots, no
35:37
streaks, bogie free round. It's a great score, but it's not what
35:40
you're gonna need to take it down or the nuts because there's nothing went that
35:44
went with I'd rather the Gary Woodland round of like seven birdies, double bogie
35:49
here, a bogie there, and a bunch of other stuff with the streak
35:51
like that's the type of stuff I'll be looking for more often than not.
35:54
Let's look up, who's the other one here? Somebody mentioned Adam Shank one,
36:00
two, three, three birdies and an eagle took care of the par
36:02
fives. I I don't see anything too special there with Shank. Not a
36:07
lot of these guys stood out here. Glover was one to look up quickly.
36:10
Glover was really solid across the board. Now Glover is like the you
36:15
know, the Corey Cotter's light. He just did everything I just talked about.
36:17
It was three birdies randomly, no streak, bogie, free round.
36:21
He got that score, but again, it's gonna be a little bit more
36:23
valuable when you get it at seventy one hundred versus the nine k range or
36:27
whatever Connors was in. And he also left two of the par fives out
36:30
there, gained almost a stroke unapproach while losing over a stroke and a half
36:35
on the third hole alone. So definitely have a little bit of interest there
36:38
in Glover as well. So trying to think of some of these guys as
36:42
as I go throughout here. We do put all the content up after the
36:45
fact, but Glover would be a guy that stood out that I was just
36:47
gonna mention there. Who else did the chat have Carson Young? Did I
36:51
pass him? No, Carson Young's coming up next at sixty nine hundred,
36:54
So we'll go to Carson Young next and move from there. Who else do
36:59
we got? Carson Young, Young, Montgomery, don't care, sig Let
37:01
me see what sigin one did too. Carl you on he got even par
37:07
on the day four birdies, left the par five out there, very solid
37:10
and approach lost almost three strokes with the putter, so all crazy Carl could
37:15
be a guy you go back to. Sig was one under on the day,
37:17
just nothing exciting, not a lot of scoring, more like a grinder.
37:21
And if you see the morning where there's gonna be scoring again again,
37:23
I want these better, I want these crazier rounds. So Carson Young.
37:28
Okay, so Carson Young would fit the mold. Carson Young had one,
37:30
two, three, four birdies, an eagle, left the par five out
37:35
there, gained over a stroke and a half on approach, pretty evenly across
37:37
the board. You know, don't care about anything else. Really, The
37:40
putter was up down. It was a little bit up on the day,
37:44
but solid off the tee. One really bad putt on two cost him a
37:49
potential streak, and the fact I don't know what he started on but if
37:52
someone knows that that could be something as well. So See Young is another
37:55
guy the good See Young. But again both the Sea Youngs' they're now challenging
38:00
each other. And yeah, Carson Young goes out very early tomorrow off of
38:04
one. So he's fine. Definitely like that play who else if you guys
38:07
have others, throw him out there Woodland, we already looked up. Don't
38:10
care about Cam Champ Stallings, no toasting, No not that I'm not playing.
38:15
I just I don't care to look them up right now, like they're
38:17
not gonna be people that I'm just looking into. So Silverman. One note
38:22
on Silverman, let me see this one I did. I wanted to see
38:24
more. I said, you know what I didn't like about Silverman, or
38:28
was worried about a little bit was down the stretch last week once it got
38:30
that wind picked up and everything like that. But maybe it was just more
38:34
of the nerves at a PGA Tour event going down the stretch like that.
38:37
But Ben Silverman really solid today actually, and I know he's got to finish
38:42
out his round one, but he's currently two under three birdies left the power
38:45
five out there, very solid on approach, and it's even across the board
38:49
very solid. You know, off the tee, around the green, everything
38:52
looks good except for the putter, and it's only really one two, like
38:55
one really bad hole, but then a bunch of just little misses that shows
39:00
you there's something out there that could be there. And one thing I like
39:02
about a play like Silverman is get out there, finish the job and then
39:07
get right back out there and play again, almost get like a little bit
39:10
of a warm up, and then get to go out from there. So
39:14
it's like you get a mulligan, right if you I mean twofold. If
39:17
he has a good whole nine, which is his whole eighteen from round one,
39:21
probably feeling pretty good, we can ride that momentum right into to taking
39:23
off on the next round. But then if it's a bad hole, it's
39:28
like, okay, shake it off, let's go from there. And I
39:31
said earlier you said first Steven, but I think Carson Young it was just
39:36
right here. We had at sixty nine hundred. He's off at eight thirteen.
39:39
I always forget these tea times and how they do him up versus at
39:43
my time zone, which is way ahead of everybody or not. It's one
39:46
hour in the difference of Eastern time probably, but just a note, I
39:50
would say that that's you know, it's not first off, but he's going
39:52
off early in the morning, which is what we talked about earlier. Anybody
39:55
else that you guys want to see specifically, because I don't want to keep
39:59
rolling it too heavy year. I think we've been on forty minutes now,
40:01
So I'm just gonna try and tie it out. But you, Carl,
40:06
you're Carl's up there. When you type in yu, he comes up.
40:08
But Kevin, you won two, three, four birdies, an eagle,
40:13
left the power five out there, very solid on approach, pretty even across
40:17
the board. I think you is definitely a play Kevin old man Kocher.
40:22
Let me let me look him up for you. Terrible, absolutely horrible.
40:27
One two birdies a double bogee or so one two bogey's a double boge one
40:30
birdie on the entire day, lost almost three strokes on approach. So even
40:35
though it was just one bad hole on seventeen where he lost a stroke and
40:37
a half or more, the rest was horrible. The putter was just atrocious
40:42
whatever for whatever reason, one two, three, almost four holes gaining losing
40:47
almost a half stroke with the putters. So yeah, really bad. What
40:51
do you think the cut will be? I don't know, Like I'm not
40:55
the cut sweat guy. I don't care, like I'll find out. I'll
40:58
care tomorrow when I do. But just to look at it like live right
41:01
now, let's see the live model. It is two or three under,
41:07
it's what it looks like here. I know a lot of people were trending
41:09
saying three. It'll depend on how the morning goes, but if it goes
41:13
the way we think it does, I definitely think you could see it get
41:15
the three, so that that would sound about right. Shelton, I guess
41:19
could always go low. Kazaire could always go low. Oh, Troy Merritt,
41:22
Uh yeah, yeah, definitely find Nick. We talked about those the
41:24
five ones, but Troy Merritt Man, we said no to the flow chart
41:30
this week because we didn't know it's gonna be a birdie fest, but then
41:31
it was. So he's got four birdie he went out today, he left
41:35
two of the parfis. Yeah, Troy Merritt back in the mix tomorrow as
41:37
well. He's down sixty five hundred. He had four birdies, random birdies,
41:42
one bogie, left two of the par five's out there. Very solid
41:45
on approach, gained over two and a half strokes on approach and there wasn't
41:49
a single there was one hole one in one he game point five to one
41:52
one he gain six point six. So it's like he he didn't do anything
41:55
crazy, specially just solid on approach across the board. Solid off the He
42:00
lost almost two strokes with the Potter. It was like two really bad holes,
42:04
but still I could definitely go back to him. Got her up.
42:07
Someone mentioned, I'll pull that one up, double up, double up on
42:12
got her up? What have we got here? Got her Up's going out
42:14
early, gained almost a stroking approach one, two, three, four,
42:17
five birdies, took care of two of the three power five solid on approach
42:21
lost with the potter. Yep, got her up fits in. I think
42:22
that's where you're you're getting into these guys, like, you know, it's
42:27
not really he was fifty something. We're talking. I was saying on the
42:30
main slate, he was cheap. The flow chart was is Troy Mahrat playing?
42:32
Yes? Was he cheap? Yes? Is the field pretty weak?
42:37
Not really? That was another angle of it. Usually it's a weak field.
42:39
But it wasn't like a major or a signature event or something like that.
42:43
And the price allowed me to get away with that one. But it
42:45
it's usually is it a birdie fest? And I wasn't expecting this to be
42:49
a birdie fest, but look, got her up? Merit? There was
42:52
somebody else I was looking up there earlier, like Ryan Fox, Glover.
42:55
Those guys, I think we're fine. Who is the other guy? Someone
43:00
someone threw it in the chat there earlier. I think maybe one more guy
43:01
will round it out. Peres Victor Press same price as merit tomorrow. Let
43:06
me go pull his numbers up for a second. Another guy that has to
43:09
play that last hole. This is even better though than the previous situation.
43:14
So he gained two strokes plus on approach today lost with the potter had some
43:17
big losses on certain holes, so that mean that can get better. But
43:21
one, two, three, four birdies, an eagle and a streak,
43:25
left one of the par fives out there early on and still has the final
43:30
power five to play. Now, you're not gonna get any credit when if
43:34
he goes out there and makes a birdie on eighteen. But he's another guy
43:36
like what I talked about earlier, where he gets to go out there and
43:38
play that last hole and sort of mess around and get maybe a little bit
43:43
of momentum, shake some early morning rust off. He's a little bit sleepy
43:46
when he's out there first thing in the morning. He can knock all that
43:50
off and go from there. But we will have you guys covered. If
43:52
you guys do want to get in, go over to ship at nation dot
43:54
com. If you just want to get on the PGA side. Today is
43:57
the last day to get in for the Hoop fifteen contest. So if you
44:01
just want to try a month, you get a full month of everything that
44:04
we talked about everything here, You get a full month of the stone.
44:07
Anybody in the chat can attest to this and let you know how good the
44:10
stone is, or in the comments after the show if you're watching it on
44:13
playback and you use the stone, let people know best tool there is in
44:16
PGA dfs that you guys can do it. If you use the code hoop
44:20
fifteen, you will get fifteen percent off and that will lock in for your
44:23
payment. It's not the first month or anything like that. You're locking in
44:27
that option so that it will continuously renew at that price. I know you
44:30
guys may have more questions. I do appreciate if we're gonna wrap it up
44:32
here tomorrow night. I'll be back right after the round four, Round three.
44:37
Appreciate everybody watching that's gonna do it for this one for myself, Totag
44:40
and tambo let ship it. Hans Hast