Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / OMG + Stock Market News 30 April 2024

Transcript

OMG + Stock Market News 30 April 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: pre market.
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: The rally is frozen over because Papa Powell is going to speak tomorrow.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: But there is actually really good news not just one, but two, no, actually three levels of really good news that I want to explain to you.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: So you are the best informed investor out there, as always, and of course it's not financial advice, just an old banker and a couple of cats lurking around here sharing with you what's going on on a very, very hot day here in Hong Kong, and we've got some pretty interesting setups here this morning.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Now a couple of disgruntled comments here in the chat.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Guys, I appreciate, when you buy a stock and it goes down, it sucks.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: But first of all, one thing if you want to take credit for the wins which I'm sure you would do you got to get to take credits for the losses.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Second of all, if I walk you through a 20 year investing strategy and I say to you diversify, which I did twice in the video, beginning and end and you invest and your timeframe is one day rather than 20 years, it doesn't really match right.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: So the success with investing is to buy stocks, good quality stocks, when they're down, and understand that markets will go up and down 30, 40, 50% very, very frequently.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: So a 10% move in a growth stock is completely normal.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Look at all the previous earnings of SoFi completely normal.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: I have recorded a video that will walk you through my entire view on SoFi and what I'm going to do with it going forward.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: So check that out later on.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: But I get the frustration.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: It's easier to go and point the finger, but if you actually want to get better as an investor, you need to internalize that and you need to look at your system.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: What are my rules?
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Why did I buy this?
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Has something changed from the reasons that I bought?
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: And then you can make a decision on what to do, right?
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: So you've got to write down why you like a stock in terms of growth, gross margins, like.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: Be really specific, have numbers, track them every quarter and then you can make an informed decision, rather than this sort of knee-jerk emotional thing that we all get right, and that's our enemy.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: The emotion is our enemy as investors.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: So we got to eliminate the emotion and transfer it into an actual systematic system.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: That's why long-term investors and long-term traders do well, because they may or may not do well in week one, but they will do well over 20 years, right?
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: So that's got to be your time frame.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: There, mark, precisely timing.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: The market is not quite all that matters, but it is very, very important.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: And, danzo, I don't think the SoFi earnings were terrible.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: I just think the market doesn't love it when revenue is declining and projected to decline next quarter.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: But if you listen to what Noto said, he said we are transitioning to higher margin businesses, which is the tech stack, which is the credit cards, which is money, and he doesn't want to take the risk, in this environment of just general gaga-ness, of lending a lot of money out.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: And he's got $20 billion he could lend out but he's not doing it because he's a risk-averse chap.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: I quite like that of the banker.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: I quite like a risk-averse banker.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Try finding one.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: Did you see the guys at SockChain who got fired today?
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: They did some trades that were so freaking risky that they got fired over it.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: It could have cost the bank $100 million.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: You don't want those guys running your money.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: You say uneducated retail investors don't understand that.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Well, that's why we make the videos to make them from uneducated to more educated.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: And if you want to learn've got to watch a video back to beginning to end if it's like in real educational one, where I actually break down a strategy, then maybe you've got to watch it more than once.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: And if I teach you how to do, say, covered calls or something on I don't know, palantir or whatever it was the other day, that doesn't mean that's the only stock one can do that on, obviously right, and I do say that.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: So the point is to bring education across to as many people as possible, because if I called the video learn how to do covered calls in 19 steps, me and my cat would watch it and nobody else and we wouldn't have achieved anything.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: So I want to open people's minds to new ideas and new concepts so they learn more.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: Right, if you want to learn a lot more, come and join my live trading train, which is happening in like 11 hours.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: There I've got like an hour to teach you something much more detailed without the algorithm breathing down my neck and killing the video off in minute three, which it would if I make that a video.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: So you know we got to work with the way the system works and the intention is always to teach you as much as humanly possible by phoenix.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Wait, I thought we only judged by the clickbait?
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: No, exactly, I mean you should just judge videos by titles and thumbnails of me going.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: You know, that's a really good one that works really well always, which is funny.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: I used to laugh at that and now I did, because it's the only way to reach people and and we want to reach people.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: You, you know, like LLY, I'm sure they did other products, but they are known for the fat drug, right.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: I don't know what else they do, but I just think of them as a fat drug and that's just the way it works.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: So, tesla down 3.2% this morning.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: Google flat, microsoft flat, meta flat, nvidia flat, apple flat.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Amazon flat.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Berkshire flat, visa flat.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: Did I mention it was a flat market?
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Because everyone's hanging on the edge of your seat waiting for Papa Powell to speak.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: So let me run you through a few things that are a little bit more detailed but I think are incredibly important to understand.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: So what's happening Above 5100?
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Hang on, let me write here.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: The market is calm and happy.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: That's basically what's happening right now Above 5,100, market's calm and happy, but, as they say in Middle England, below 5,100, expect big moves, or bigger moves, rather, and that's a result of the way the market's set up and where the market makers sit.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: And if you look on our little options watch chart here, you see that 5100 there, all of that 5100 is resistance and yeah, we're trading slightly above it right now 16 points above it.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: But that is still the point to crack today.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: But really you want to move away from that.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: And then you get happy and calm, below 5,100, choppiness, bigger waves, right.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: That's the important stuff to understand.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: We actually can update that, can't we?
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Oh, look at that.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: We've got a banner for today.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Felix Rensselaer DocsL slash webinar.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Live trading trading happening today Takes you to this page.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: Sign up there.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: It's 8 pm Eastern time.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Come and join me.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: I'll teach you my entire trading system for about 90 minutes, or something like that.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Paypal earnings are tonight, aren't they?
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Aren't they tonight?
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: I think they're tonight.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: I thought PayPal earnings were tonight.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Am I mistaken on that view?
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: I thought they report after.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: How did the earnings thing go here?
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Oh, I'm on PayPal.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Oh, no, they did.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Okay, it was this morning, was it Okay?
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: I'm surprised All right, pleasantly surprised, am I?
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: Doesn't look glorious, but 6% up so far, missing EPS slightly, but more revenue.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: So no, I know nothing about it as yet.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: I haven't seen it, but it must have just come out 30 minutes ago.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look at how the market reacts to that.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Not always the greatest indication as to what to do with it.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: We had a rally going into it, which is a little unusual inside our knowledge perhaps, and then we're selling off from earnings onwards.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: Did they announce something at 7 30?
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Looks like it doesn't.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Some pretty pretty mad stuff going on here and that's an algorithm.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Waking up at 8 am going I'm awake, let's do something.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Let's buy no sales, I'll buy it again, let's sell it again.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: And four minutes later they were exactly where they started.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: I'm sure they made trillions.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: They probably didn't.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, no, I don't know anything about it yet.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: We will check it out.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: Let me have a look on if some of my fellow PayPal followers there there are some smart people on Twitter that we can sometimes check in there.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: It actually just popped up on the screen.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Brad does a pretty good job and he's quick, and it actually just popped up on the screen.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Brad does a pretty good job and he's quick.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: He's saying revenue beat TPV, beat beat gap EPS and beat guide.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: So, excluding share pays compensation, they beat EPS.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: Okay, they raised their guidance, maintained EPS Next quarter revenue growth was a miss.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: Okay, the guide is a little bit soft there on revenue.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Okay, and there's some change there in how they compare with SPC and non-SPC.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Let's just have a look at numbers here.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Venmo looks okay.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: Tpv is down a bit.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: Revenue is stronger Numbers look on the top of it quite good.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: Net income margins have improved from a year ago Just a touch, not a lot.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: Transaction margins are down a little bit.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: So might be Braintree's growth.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: So you know we have to dig in a little bit deeper.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: I will dig into this.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: I will make a separate video on it.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: They bought back $17 billion of shares.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: I know they have said bought back 1.5 billion bullish guidance.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: The reasons PayPal should be under 100 this summer.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Okay, interesting.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: We'll see a little bit more how that plays out during the rest of the day.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: What did Winston say about bank stocks?
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Winston says stay the heck away.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Bloody complicated and hard to understand, so I'm generally not a big fan of those.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, your PayPal call is doing pretty nicely.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I bet.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: I bet, minus two, I imagine.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: And we've already taken profits on that once this year.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: So there is that.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: What else is there?
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: I wanted you to run through.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I wanted to run you through this, which we've just done.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: If you want to learn how we make money 2022, 2023, return on capital employed, come and join me in 11 hours, felixfrenzorg slash webinar Positioning.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: And I want to get into okay, yeah, we'll get into that.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: We'll get into the three reasons why I'm actually feeling incredibly weirdly bullish right now.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: So mega cap positioning isn't particularly high.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: So we're here, right, that purplish line there Let me get a pen, purple pen.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: That line there is where we are.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: So we're kind of like slightly above the middle.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: This is the middle, but we're not stretched right.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: We're not in these sort of December 2020, early 21 kind of madness.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: We're not where we were earlier in the year and that's a good thing.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: It means we've got more room for moving up.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: Panic has come down.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Vix, the fear indicator, has really, really collapsed.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: If you look at RSI, which we can also toggle on in here in Options Watch and we are going to make that a separate chart, by the way, at the moment it's a little bit overlaid, but you can see it's right here at 51.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: 50 is the middle right.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: So it's not overboard, it's not oversold.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: We're kind of just like flat on the market.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: That's a good place to be because it means you can go up quite a lot more right.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: When we were up here at the top, I'll show you again we're here at the top of the market rsi was at 70 here on the left right, 70.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: And that means pretty stretched probably going to come down.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: So that's a good thing.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: So that's a good.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: Now there are more good things to come down.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: So that's a good thing.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: So that's a good thing.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Now there are more good things to come.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: Copper Okay, yes, copper has gone up through the moon, trading basically like Nvidia, which is kind of a funny one.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: But this is a.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: This is the thing I know everybody loves the algorithms, cta, convexity what the heck does that mean?
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: What does that mean?
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: It basically means that we're expecting that algorithms will buy in all scenarios.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: Market goes up, they buy.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: Market goes sideways, they buy.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: Market goes down, they buy.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: Market goes down a lot, they're still buying, and that's pretty unusual.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: So the computers will buy no matter what.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: And then the third thing you have is buyback.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: So one, you have position, positioning is neutral.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Remind me again why we're writing with a purple pen.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: Two is algos.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: Algo funds, buy no matter what.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: And then numero tres is buybacks.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: Buybacks are back Like the Backstreet Boys man.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: It's hot today.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: I'm going to have to take off this jacket.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: It's really, really steamy and roasting here today.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure what's going on with the aircon, but it's clearly not providing its required level of assistance.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: So those are the triple whammies which will give us, in my opinion, a pretty good market.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: And yes, papa Powell speaks and speak he shall.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Tomorrow we're going to get job opening data out, employment data out early in the morning and then Papa Powell at 2.30.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: Interest rate decision will be no change in interest rates, but there's a very good chance he's going to announce a slowdown in money shredding and he will sell that as a sort of mission accomplished.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: Remember President George W when he was stood on that aircraft carrier and said mission accomplished.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: And then there were 10 more years and misery in Iraq.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: It's a little bit like that, basically, but the market will quite like that.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: So I'm expecting a relatively neutral to softish power, and we'll see if I'm right on that.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: But that's kind of where I'm thinking because of bank failures and so on.