Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 213 - 2/6/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 213 - 2/6/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 213 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
• 0:35
  Happy Thirsty Thursday. I am coming to you live from New
• 0:39
  Mexico. That's right.
• 0:41
  Now my, what is it? Third straight day here in New
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  Mexico having a great time. I do want to apologize
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  yesterday, did not have a podcast because I had a really
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  busy day. We did a ton of stuff yesterday.
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  We actually went to one of the coolest places I've ever been
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  to, the Trinity test site, which is where the atomic bomb was
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  built and tested. If you've ever seen the movie
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  Oppenheimer, basically I was walking in Oppenheimer, Jews out
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  in the desert. It was unbelievable.
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  We went to this place called the McDonald Ranch House, which is
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  where the whole crew back in 1945 secretly created the atomic
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  bomb. And then we went to the atomic
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  bomb test site, which is called Ground Zero.
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  So pretty amazing. I felt the way to history.
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  It was kind of unbelievable, but it was one of the most kind of
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  somber and coolest and and most humbling experiences of my life
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  because pretty much we saved the world.
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  I know the atomic bomb obviously, you know, had some
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  terrible effects, but it also stopped World War 2, ended the
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  Nazis, you know, stopped the war in the, you know, in the, in
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  the, you know, in the islands in the, in the Far East.
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  So it was pretty unbelievable to kind of see exactly the place
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  where it was created and where it all started.
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  So that's what I did yesterday. It was a long drive out in the
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  desert where I was Actually, it was ironically enough.
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  We got back to the hotel, me and the wife, and the movie Casino
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  was on. One of my favorites, obviously,
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  with Robert De Niro and Joe Pesci and the whole crew.
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  But they talk about taking you out in the desert, burying you
• 2:12
  out there and you'll never be found.
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  Well, that's pretty much where we were at the Trinity test
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  site. So it's been great to be here.
• 2:18
  Actually, when we got back, we drove by Walter Whiteshouse cuz
• 2:22
  I'm a huge Breaking Bad fan. And I'll be honest with you
• 2:25
  guys, it was a little bit underwhelming.
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  It didn't quite exactly look like it did during Breaking Bad.
• 2:31
  I feel like they like repainted it.
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  But more importantly, like there's a cop car outside and
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  they put up a fence around it and there's this big sign that
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  says leave us alone, take your pictures from across the street
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  and do not disturb us. So a little bit underwhelming.
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  But hey, at least I drove through Walter White's
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  neighborhood and saw, saw the house and I was looking for
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  pizza up on the roof. Couldn't find one, but that was
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  kind of cool. And then actually a couple
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  nights ago, after we did the pod and we spent some time getting
• 3:01
  getting acclimated to New Mexico, we went toward the
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  University of New Mexico campus, which is pretty cool.
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  A lot of Lobos around there and had a really cool dinner at a
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  place called Pioneer. Very cheap.
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  Bunch of college kids had a great time there as well.
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  And then tonight we're locked and loaded because we were going
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  to an award ceremony for my wife, who I'm very, very proud
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  of getting recognized for her for her excellent work.
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  So I got a free dinner out of it.
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  And then we're going to go very early in the morning tomorrow to
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  drive to Roswell. That's right.
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  You know, I'm a crazy UFO person.
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  And we have a hotel there for a night.
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  We have a UFO tour booked, which I can't wait to see.
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  And it's funny, I've been talking to a lot of people out
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  here and asking them. They're like, oh, hey, what are
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  you doing? I'm saying, oh, we're from New
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  England. We're out here on a a trip for
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  the wife based on her work and they're like where are you
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  going? What you doing?
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  I keep saying I'm going to Roswell.
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  What do you think? I'm trying to get the feel from
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  the locals. Is Roswell in the UFO thing
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  totally BS? Is it real?
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  What do you think? And I tell you what guys, I've
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  probably talked to like 5 or 6 people.
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  Not a single person says that it's BS.
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  A lot of people either say hey, it's probably real or we know
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  someone who believes it or it is real.
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  So I'm getting pretty excited about this.
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  You might be finding out some secrets here.
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  Whatever I find tomorrow I will let you know.
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  But then also, I do want to mention we will do the 4:00
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  Eastern Time Rhythm live stream myself, James Santor, my buddy
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  Adam Rosenberg will jump on. That'll be the official Super
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  Bowl edition. So I'll be coming alive
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  somewhere in Roswell. Hopefully the hotel will check
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  us in in time. But I hope to see you guys there
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  with the live stream. And of course, you haven't done
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  yet Make sure you download Rhythm wherever you get your
• 4:46
  apps. So with that being said, we got
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  some bets to talk about, even though I can't bet here.
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  Unfortunately, they still haven't legalized sports betting
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  online. Although actually after Roswell
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  Saturday, Sunday, the last leg of our trip, we are going up to
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  Santa Fe and there is a casino there called the Sandia, which
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  I'm very much looking forward to checking out and placing a few
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  bets. So either way, guys, let's talk
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  some bets here because I'm missing you guys.
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  I'm missing sweating some sharp contrarian plays.
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  So it's all going to be college basketball tonight.
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  It's pretty much three small, low bet, obscure games.
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  I did want to mention in terms of the Super Bowl, haven't seen
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  a ton of movement. You know, we're still pretty
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  much chiefs -1 1/2 or -1 You know, bet splits are starting to
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  even out. 56% of bets, 53% of money at DraftKings, which
• 5:34
  doesn't look great for the Chiefs, but Chiefs look good at
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  circa 56% bets, 69% dollars and we are still seeing some of that
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  smart under money member. It was as high as 49 1/2.
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  It's down to 48 1/2. Going to talk props on
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  tomorrow's rhythm live stream if you're looking for prop bets.
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  But I would also mention, you know, take this with a grain of
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  salt, but right as I was about to record the pod, I saw on
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  Twitter that Jalen Carter, was he not at the media availability
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  or we're going to get a practice report or maybe he has an
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  illness. So who knows.
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  You know I'm locked and loaded money line with the Chiefs, so
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  I'll take it if that's the case. Maybe he's fine, who knows.
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  But that was just one little nugget of information that I
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  noticed on Twitter. Anyway, let's talk some sharp
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  bets here for tonight. 2 low bed obscure sharp line moves, or
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  actually three overall. Let's try to go 2 and one all
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  three money lines and eke out a profit.
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  So first one on the board for me. 7:00 PM Eastern Time tip off
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  Iona visiting Mount Saint Mary's.
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  Now Iona comes into this one nine and 13 on the year, but
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  they're playing better as of late.
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  They've won four of their last five.
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  They just crushed Fairfield 87 to 64.
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  They covered that game as a 5 point home favorite.
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  Meanwhile, Mount Saint Mary's 13 and 9 on the year, They've won
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  two straight, just took down Saint Peter's 79 to 64.
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  They covered as a four point Rd. favorite.
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  So what I'm seeing across the market here, well, some good
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  sharp movement in favor of Mount Saint Mary's.
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  That's where I'm going guys. MSM on the money line.
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  Now, Mount Saint Mary's opened as basically a pick them or a
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  very short one point home favorite.
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  The pickups immediately got up to 1 and now these ones are
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  creeping up to -1 1/2 and I even saw a couple books just now move
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  to -2 so pretty clear movement toward Mount Saint Mary's pick
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  -1 now up to -1 and F -, 2. If you look at DraftKings,
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  pretty good bet split, 65% of spread bets, 83% of spread
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  dollars. So good low bets, higher dollars
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  bet split in their favor. And also the fact that this is a
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  low bet, you know, obscure line move.
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  You know, I don't think anyone woke up on the Thursday before
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  the Super Bowl and said, you know what, I got a bet Iona
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  Mount Saint Mary. So it's a low bet game, yet
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  we're seeing a good split in a line move tells me it's mostly
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  sharp betters with an edge targeting this game and in
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  particular Mount Saint Mary's. Now Ken Palm has Mount Saint
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  Mary's winning by three points, 70 to 67.
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  So if you're at -1 1/2 -, 2, you could just lay it and say, hey,
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  I still got an edge with Ken Palm.
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  However, that just makes me more excited to play the money line.
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  Little bit of an added, you know, kind of padding there or
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  kind of security. Now, Ken Palm does have Mount
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  Saint Mary's ranked higher, 255th in the country.
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  Doesn't sound great, but he's got Iona 278.
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  And this is a pretty cheap money line, Mount Saint Mary's -125
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  and I like the fact that at DraftKings, 74% of money line
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  bets, 85% of money line dollars. So really good bet split low
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  bets, higher dollars in favor of Mount Saint Mary's.
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  Now a few things to bank on for Mount Saint Mary's.
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  Better offensive efficiency, 297th in the country again
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  doesn't sound great, but you look at Iona 334th, you look at
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  effective field goal percentage and edge here for Mount Saint
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  Mary's, 50% versus 46%, better three-point shooting, 33% versus
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  31%, better free throw shooting, 73% versus 69%.
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  It also doesn't hurt that Mount Saint Mary's is 6 and three at
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  home this year. Iona is just three and six on
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  the road, so it's a low bet obscure game.
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  Again, public isn't really interested in this one, but it's
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  pretty clear based on the line move the bet splits.
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  We got Ken Palm in our favor. I'm going to bank on hopefully
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  Mount Saint Mary's winning this game, getting a victory for us.
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  This is the money line play for me.
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  Let's go. Mount Saint Mary's on the money
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  line. The Mountaineers baby.
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  Almost sounds like Take Me Home country roads, doesn't it?
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  Not the West Virginia Mountaineers.
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  Mount Saint Mary's Mountaineers money line play.
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  Win the damn game -125 next one for you.
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  Another low bed obscure game. 7:00 Eastern Time.
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  Elon at Campbell now coming this one.
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  Elon is 15 and 8 on the year. Just snapped A2 game losing skid
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  with a 71 to 60 win over Northeastern.
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  They covered that game as a 3 1/2 point home favorite.
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  Flip it over Campbell 12:00 and 11:00.
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  Not a great record, but they're really turning it on here.
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  They've won five straight. Just crushed Hofstra 75 to 52
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  easily winning outright as a 2 point home dog.
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  So what do we see across the market here?
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  Well, I think if you like Mount Saint Mary's, you like Campbell.
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  Very similar because this game opened at basically a pick em or
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  Campbell -1 at home. And we've now seen Campbell get
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  bet up to -1 1/2. So line is moving toward
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  Campbell. Draft Kings has a decent split,
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  58% of spread bets, 62% of spread dollars.
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  But it's really over at Circa that gets me excited about
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  Campbell. They're getting 83% of spread
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  bets, but 90% of spread dollars. And really to me, why that's
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  notable is it's such a heavy, you know, bets and dollars split
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  in favor of Campbell out in Vegas because you got to think
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  about, you know, Circa who really prides themselves on
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  taking in smart money. You know how many, you know,
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  average Joe bettors at Circa are walking up to the window, you
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  know, early afternoon for a late later game saying Gimme
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  Campbell. You know, that 83 percent, 90%
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  dollars to me tells me it's mostly sharp money here out in
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  Vegas, in particular at Circa, playing Campbell at home now,
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  Ken Palmas, Campbell winning by two points, 68 to 66.
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  Of course, you know what I'm going to do here.
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  Money line, a short home favorite, very decent number
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  here, I think -125 -, 130. And if you look in particular at
• 11:09
  DraftKings, 66% of money line bets, 89% of money line dollars.
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  So a really good split there. Low bet, higher dollar in favor
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  of Campbell to win the game and a couple of paths to victory.
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  Hopefully Campbell better defensive efficiency.
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  They rank 114th in the country. Flip it the other way and you
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  have Elon ranking 191st better three-point shooting for
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  Campbell, 33% versus 31%, better free throw shooting 77% versus
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  75%. And Campbell takes better care
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  of the ball. They're 58th best and basically
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  the lowest turnover percentage versus 234 for Elon.
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  So Elon gives it up. Campbell hopefully does not.
• 11:51
  And it's also kind of fishy like Elon's 15 and 8.
• 11:53
  Even if you apply homecourt, should they be getting 1 1/2 out
• 11:56
  of team? That's only 12:00 and 11:00.
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  I kind of like that the worst record team is favored with the
• 12:01
  line move here. So I'm going to embrace this
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  fishy move here in favor of Campbell.
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  I think we played Campbell, I want to say maybe last week or
• 12:08
  the week before, and they came through for us in a blowout win.
• 12:11
  Let's see if they can do it again.
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  I got Campbell on the money. Line around -125 -, 130 now.
• 12:17
  Last bet of the night, Late night, 10:00 Eastern, we got San
• 12:21
  Diego visiting Pacific. 2 terrible teams with awful
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  records, but hopefully we got a lesser of two evils play now.
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  San Diego comes in four and 20 on the year.
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  They played 24 games. They've lost 20 of them.
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  One of the worst teams in college basketball.
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  They've lost ten straight. They just fell to Loyola
• 12:38
  Marymount. 78 to 62. Didn't cover as a 7 1/2 point
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  home dog. On the other hand, Pacific not
• 12:45
  great either but a little bit better. 7 and 18 on the year.
• 12:48
  They have however dropped five of their last six just got
• 12:51
  rolled by Santa Clara 83 to 49 didn't cover as a 17 point Rd.
• 12:56
  dog. So what do we see across the
• 12:58
  market here? Well Pacific opened as around a
• 13:00
  2 1/2 or 3 point home favorite. And even though this is a late
• 13:04
  night game low bet game, again public doesn't care about this
• 13:07
  one. Even if they maybe thought about
• 13:10
  caring about it. They see probably 2 terrible
• 13:12
  records and say I don't want any part of this game.
• 13:14
  However, despite the fact it's a low bet game, we've seen a move
• 13:17
  toward the Tigers. The Pacific Tigers that is
• 13:21
  Pacific -2 1/2 -, 3 now up to -3 1/2.
• 13:25
  If you look at DraftKings, Pacific is getting 70% of spread
• 13:29
  bets, 80% of spread dollars. Good low bets, higher dollars
• 13:33
  bet discrepancy, and again, late night 2 bad teams.
• 13:36
  This is a low back game without much public action.
• 13:39
  Tells me the smart money is moving this number with wise
• 13:42
  guys taking a position in favor of Pacific.
• 13:45
  Now, Ken Palma's Pacific winning by two points, 72 to 70.
• 13:49
  So with that in mind, I ain't laying a 3 1/2 Pacific wins by
• 13:53
  1-2 or three and I lose. I'm going money line here now.
• 13:56
  It's a little bit expensive right now.
• 13:59
  FanDuel is offering -166 I believe that's your best number
• 14:03
  because I'm seeing some books closer to like -175 So if we're
• 14:06
  going to go money line here with me, mitigate some risk, just
• 14:09
  bank on a hopefully win the damn gameplay.
• 14:12
  Definitely shop Brown, try to get that lowest number -166 but
• 14:16
  you look at Pacific, better offensive efficiency, 282 in the
• 14:19
  country versus 328 for San Diego, better effective field
• 14:24
  goal percentage, 47% versus 45% and better three-point shooting,
• 14:29
  30% versus 28%. Also, you look at home Rd.
• 14:33
  Pacific on the year 4 and seven at home, not great, but San
• 14:37
  Diego is O and eight on the road.
• 14:39
  So again, two terrible teams. Can Pacific be the lesser of two
• 14:43
  evils? I'm hoping that they will be.
• 14:45
  I got a Pacific money line play. Let's go tigers -166 so Mount
• 14:51
  Saint Mary's, Campbell and Pacific 3 plays all three money
• 14:54
  lines. Let's try to go 2 and one and
• 14:56
  eek out a winning day. So with that, with that being
• 15:00
  said guys, wrapping up the pod here again, a little bit shorter
• 15:02
  than usual because I actually got to go pick the wife up at
• 15:05
  the office. She's meeting and greeting all
• 15:07
  of her Co workers who she's known virtually for for for
• 15:11
  years and meeting for the first time out here in New Mexico.
• 15:14
  But I do want to wrap up of course with a few things we
• 15:17
  always like to mention at the end of the ASG pod #1 if you
• 15:21
  enjoy the pod, if you missed it yesterday, then please do me a
• 15:25
  solid. If you can let me know you
• 15:26
  appreciate the pod by doing one simple thing, giving the podcast
• 15:30
  a five star review. If you're listening on Spotify
• 15:33
  or iTunes, it'll only take a second, but click rate and
• 15:35
  review, give it five stars. If you want to leave a nice
• 15:38
  comment, you look forward to the the betting breakdowns, the
• 15:41
  insights, that would mean a lot to me.
• 15:43
  If you also want to click the follow button, that way you get
• 15:45
  alerted as soon as it drops each day, that would be awesome as
• 15:48
  well. And again, if you want to
• 15:49
  recommend it to a friend, word of mouth is always the best in
• 15:52
  terms of turning someone on to something.
• 15:55
  They always take it more seriously if it's from someone
• 15:57
  that they know and they respect. Next, if you enjoy this style of
• 16:02
  betting breakdown, no bias, no opinion.
• 16:04
  We're looking and betting based upon what the market is telling
• 16:07
  us. Where's the smart money going
• 16:09
  trying to bet against the public?
• 16:11
  Look at our system matches again, look at all these
• 16:14
  different factors as a flat better and trying to get COV.
• 16:16
  If this style of betting appeals to you and you want to learn
• 16:19
  more about data-driven betting, there's a very easy thing you
• 16:22
  can do. You can go to Amazon.com and
• 16:24
  type in the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 16:27
  That's a book I wrote a couple years ago.
• 16:29
  Very proud of it. I think it's great, especially
• 16:31
  if you're brand new to sports betting or you know someone
• 16:33
  who's brand new to betting or someone who wants to get into
• 16:36
  betting and give it a try. Doesn't know how betting works,
• 16:40
  doesn't really have any strategy or any way to pick games.
• 16:43
  If that is the case, recommend the Everything Guide to Sports
• 16:46
  Betting. It's got everything I've learned
• 16:47
  in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
• 16:50
  they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
• 16:52
  action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
• 16:55
  for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan, all
• 16:58
  included in the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 17:01
  So pick one up and when I see at the sports book I'll sign it for
• 17:04
  you and I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale next.
• 17:08
  Have you downloaded Rhythm or Juice Reel yet?
• 17:11
  Have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial?
• 17:13
  If you haven't done it yet, I got to imagine right now is the
• 17:16
  best time to do it. The lead up to the Super Bowl.
• 17:18
  Rhythm is fantastic for their AI backed models and predictions
• 17:21
  for game bets and player props. I know you want to bet props on
• 17:25
  the Super Bowl and Rhythms got you covered with great player
• 17:27
  prop predictions where you can basically look for discrepancy
• 17:31
  plays where, hey, this wide receiver is 75 1/2 in the
• 17:34
  market. Rhythm is predicting 8083 yards.
• 17:37
  Again, maybe you lean over there.
• 17:38
  Our rhythm is predicting 66 yards.
• 17:40
  You lean under. Our rhythm is does great in
• 17:43
  terms of helping us make sharp bets.
• 17:45
  Also juice reel you got to download juice reel.
• 17:48
  It's great for following the robo Jackson best bet pics pair
• 17:51
  of pics that come out every day at noon that are AI driven.
• 17:55
  You also can follow the all systems go best bet picks from
• 17:58
  juice reel for 499 a week. I know you can't do it now
• 18:01
  because I can't bet online. I got I got no legal legal
• 18:05
  options here, but I will be again going to the Sandia, which
• 18:09
  I'm excited to check out, I believe on Sunday to place my
• 18:13
  ticket on the Super Bowl. Let's go chiefs baby.
• 18:16
  But also juice reel is great for their arbitrage system matches
• 18:20
  each day. They're sharp mush indicators,
• 18:22
  shopping for the best line, syncing your sports books.
• 18:24
  Basically, it's got you covered in a multitude of ways.
• 18:26
  So download rhythm, download juice reel recommended to a
• 18:30
  friend, give it five stars in the App Store and you'll be off
• 18:33
  and running making sharp bets. So that about does it guys, on a
• 18:37
  big Thirsty Thursday. As always, I'll leave you with a
• 18:40
  couple things. Whether I see you at the Borgata
• 18:42
  in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook of New
• 18:45
  Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut, at the
• 18:48
  Encore in Boston or Plainridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield.
• 18:52
  In my neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
• 18:54
  Or out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
• 18:56
  Or Billy Walter sends his number runners where the lowest use
• 18:59
  possible is found at the South Point.
• 19:01
  Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays, jumping in the stadium
• 19:03
  swim pool when you catch a big ticket at Circo wherever.
• 19:06
  Maybe. And it's been a couple days, but
• 19:08
  last time we had a pod 2 and 1 + 0.56 units, remember?
• 19:13
  Had a couple wins with actually, who was it that night?
• 19:16
  It was Northwestern, UCLA, and BYU.
• 19:20
  So that was Northwestern came through for the team UCLA, BYU
• 19:24
  was the one loser there. But either way, strung together
• 19:27
  a couple two in one days. So we shall take it.
• 19:30
  But flash me one of those tickets.
• 19:31
  Northwestern, UCLA first one's on me, next one's on you.
• 19:34
  We're going to post about the book.
• 19:35
  Sweat sharp contrarian plays all night long as always.
• 19:39
  Guys 2 and O, 1 and 2, three and OO and three again.
• 19:45
  We always want to win every bet we make, but we know that sports
• 19:47
  betting is difficult. It's hard to beat these sharp
• 19:49
  lines the odds maker set. It's hard to get the best of the
• 19:52
  number. It's hard to avoid bad beats and
• 19:54
  ref screwing you and injuries and all these different, you
• 19:57
  know, randomness and unlucky plays that can happen.
• 20:00
  But we know that we can win long term if we stick to the model
• 20:03
  against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
• 20:06
  avoid parlays, get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
• 20:09
  to be successful sports betters. So have a great Thirsty
• 20:12
  Thursday, everybody. It's funny, my family and
• 20:15
  everyone back home in Massachusetts, apparently
• 20:17
  there's like a Blizzard today, which makes me even that much
• 20:22
  happier and luckier to be out here in New Mexico where it's
• 20:24
  about 70° and sunny. But either way, guys, wish you
• 20:28
  the best of luck. Have a fantastic Thirsty
• 20:31
  Thursday reminder. Tomorrow I will be in Roswell.
• 20:35
  Any X-Files fans out there? The truth is out there.
• 20:38
  Well, I'm I'm about to uncover the truth.
• 20:40
  I'm about to find what what's going on here?
• 20:42
  Was it real? Was it not?
• 20:44
  I think it might be real, but I got I got to see for my own two
• 20:47
  eyes tomorrow. We look forward to seeing you
• 20:48
  guys tomorrow and reminder, we will have that rhythm live
• 20:51
  stream where I'll be coming to you from, from Roswell, which
• 20:55
  again, I still can't believe I'm going there.
• 20:57
  Like my whole life I've heard about Roswell.
• 20:59
  I finally get to do it. I'm very much looking forward to
• 21:02
  it. So see you guys tomorrow.
• 21:04
  Have a great night. And again, that live stream
• 21:06
  before Eastern Time tomorrow from the epicenter of where it
• 21:10
  all went down back in 1947. But have a great night, guys.
• 21:14
  I'll see you tomorrow for episode 214 of the All Systems
• 21:17
  Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 21:21
  Good luck and have a great night.