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Will Trump and his new team make the world safer or more dangerous? | The American Fourcast · The Fourcast

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  He believes in this madman theory of international
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  relations that nobody can tell what he's going to do next.
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  Could Trump save the European Union from itself or not?
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  Yes, because I think as a polarizing figure he does tend
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  to bring people close together. Putin's vision is is a neutral
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  Ukraine and a neutered Ukraine and a Ukraine that is not
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  allowed to join NATO and not allowed to join the European
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  Union and preferably with a puppet government.
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  Ultimately, is Trump going to make the world safer or more
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  dangerous? Hello and welcome to the
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  American Forecast. How will a second Donald Trump
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  presidency change the world? It's a week since America voted
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  to return him to the White House and everyday we're getting new
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  reports of who will fill the top jobs.
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  Can they shape the way that he deals with the world?
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  What's going to happen in Ukraine and the Middle East?
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  What about China? Will there be a trade war with
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  China? Another one, a bigger one?
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  What are the risks? Well, with me, Michael Martins,
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  who worked in the Trump's first administration as a foreign
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  policy adviser and the US embassy here in London, and our
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  very own international editor, Lindsay Hilson.
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  Welcome to you both. So, Michael, lots of stuff to
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  discuss, lots of different topics.
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  The world is watching Mar a Lago, which is a kind of
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  billionaires job centre at the moment, from behind the sofa.
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  Don't laugh, this is serious. Marco Rubio, Secretary of State.
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  Yeah, that looks to be where the wind is blowing.
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  I think Senator Rubio, you know, he comes in, he's a bit more of
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  a traditional Republican in that sense.
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  But I think he, you know, he'll align with President Trump on on
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  some of his more hawkish views on China, for example.
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  And, and I think ultimately like it, it does demonstrate the
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  President Trump is a bit more organized this go around.
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  Like we're starting to see this more.
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  One of the things that's really interesting about Marco Rubio on
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  China is that he's very strong on human rights and the Uyghurs.
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  So obviously he's seen as a hawk, he's seen as far to the
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  right, but of course human rights are a very sort of
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  Democrat, possibly left wing cause.
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  And Marco Rubio has really been out there, particularly on the
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  use of forced labour amongst the the Uyghurs in textiles and so
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  on. So it's quite interesting.
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  He's actually sanctioned by China and banned from China
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  because he's been so he's been so outspoken on human rights in
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  the but. Are they using human rights as a
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  stick to beat the Chinese government ultimately of, you
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  know, over trade issues, or do they actually believe in human
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  rights? I, I think they believe in human
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  rights. I think it it helps when it
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  comes to the relationship in terms of pressuring on trade
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  issues because, you know, the world's, if President Trump
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  comes in and raises tariffs on the world at large, like, you
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  know, there is, it gives allies and partners also something to
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  rally behind that isn't just, you know, a consequence of a
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  1020% increase on tariffs. So.
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  Or a 60% in China's case China. 'S case for sure.
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  That's a huge increase. That is a big increase.
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  But I think when it comes to trade issues, it's one of the
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  key areas in policy that the president has almost unilateral
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  control over. He can decide what tariff policy
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  is for the US. And, and trade is and trade
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  tariffs are an issue that he ran on.
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  He described tariffs as the most beautiful word in the English
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  Dictionary. So you expect him to raise those
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  tariffs? I do.
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  I think, you know, when President then Trump used to
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  come to to the UK and we would brief him, you know, his big
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  questions were always like, what is the def are the deficits?
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  What is the deficit? What is defense spending, things
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  like this when it comes to deficit.
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  For him, it was very tight into trade because he viewed any sort
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  of deficit as OK, we need to raise tariffs so that we end up,
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  you know, in surplus. And and and as a result, like
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  this is something he in his mind understands, he believes in and
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  it's politically popular with his voters and his base.
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  So yeah, I could see this happening very early in his
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  term. Lindsay, you know, well, you
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  lived there for a few years. What are the Chinese thinking
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  about this new administration and trade tariffs in particular?
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  Well, they are obviously concerned about that, but they
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  don't think that they necessarily have the
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  disadvantage in that. I mean they can also do trade
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  tariffs the other way around. But they send a lot more to
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  America than America. Does.
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  But I think that what they're mainly concerned about is this
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  issue of instability and unpredictability, because what
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  the Chinese like more than anything else is knowing what
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  they're dealing with. Now, on the one hand, you can
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  say they do know what they're dealing with because they've
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  dealt with Trump before. But of course, he believes in
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  this madman theory of international relations that
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  nobody can tell what he's going to do next.
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  And that, I think, is what may be worrying them more than
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  anything else. But is that one of his
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  strengths, this sort of this unpredictability?
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  Sometimes he's brutal, sometimes he's not.
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  You know, are you gonna get invited to play golf or is it
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  gonna be something else? I do, I think it keeps
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  especially like adversaries, it keeps them on, on their toes.
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  I think, you know, there there's a school of thought that that
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  this might actually lead to like a pause, like a cessation of
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  conflict in certain areas where you know, if you're if you don't
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  necessarily know how the US will react, how stridently are you
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  going to it's. Constructive ambiguity or maybe
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  destructive ambiguity, Lindsay, do you think that would work?
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  I mean, from the receiving end of that policy, are people
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  impressed by that kind of unpredictability?
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  I think people are made nervous of it and the people who are
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  most nervous of it are the Europeans, because the
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  Europeans, you know, they want America to be this solid ally.
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  And I think that now they're looking at Trump and they're
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  thinking, well, how much of an ally and how solid?
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  But of course, because of course, he makes a big play of
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  this thing that he, you know, he likes his friend Kim Jong Un,
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  his friend Putin, and even says, I like President Xi, he never
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  says anything nice about the Europeans.
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  All he says is you've got to pay more for defence.
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  And so I think that for for the Europeans, that is a really big
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  issue. Just quickly on China then, I
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  mean, do you expect there to be a fully fledged trade war with
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  China? Because we also know that Robert
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  Lighthizer, the former tsar of tariffs, I don't, I don't think
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  he's been confirmed yet, but he may well be the future trade
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  secretary. That would be bad news for those
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  people who don't like tariffs. Yeah, I can see it.
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  To be honest. I like he President Trump
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  usually when he comes in, well, his big moves are often first,
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  right, especially on trade. So I can see him starting that
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  and not necessarily, you know, you it runs out of political
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  mileage. So I could see him starting it,
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  but I don't necessarily think it's going to be a massive
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  escalation over four years. But the American consumer is the
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  one who may end up paying the most for that.
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  And if that happens and inflation goes up because of
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  trade war, he starts, I think he's quite likely to to tack
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  away from it because, you know, that's his base, that's what
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  he's promised to do, is to bring prices down.
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  And very few economists think that starting a trade war is
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  going to bring prices down. I am not.
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  I like, I personally agree. I don't necessarily think like a
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  terror. It's a different type of tax,
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  right? It just increases prices.
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  But in in practice, I think he'll be able to say this is
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  Chinas fault. Like I've done this and they've
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  retaliated. Also the US is such a big
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  economy that like in practice it could also just shift production
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  closer to home. But in my opinion, like
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  personally, I don't necessarily think tariffs and trade wars end
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  up benefiting anyone other than politicians advocating for.
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  Them OK, let's say we, we bury China, as it were, as a subject,
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  not as a country or as a power. Let's move on to Europe.
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  You started talking about Europe.
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  I was struck by the scene last week.
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  I think it was the day after the election.
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  There was a summit in Budapest, and Keir Starmer, our Prime
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  Minister and President Zelensky looked very, very nervous and
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  uneasy even with each other. So we'll talk about Ukraine in a
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  minute. But first of all, Europe, OK?
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  So if you're a German car manufacturer and you're about to
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  face 10 or 20% tariffs on your Mercs being sold to Florida,
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  you're going to be in trouble. You're going to be very, very
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  nervous. Also, you've got Elon Musk, you
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  know, who's producing electric cars, which the Germans aren't
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  very good at. But not every European is going
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  to hate Trump, right? Marine Le Pen, Georgia Maloney,
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  Viktor Orban, The AFDI mean it. Does it question to you,
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  Lindsay? Does it accentuate the splits,
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  the political fissures within the European Union?
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  Definitely, because at that meeting where as you were
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  saying, you know, Starmer and Zelensky were were looking so
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  uncomfortable, Viktor Orban was looking like the cat who just
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  drunk the cream, wasn't he? But it is all connected to
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  Ukraine because it's about NATO as well.
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  And that is, you know, to a big splitting.
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  But let's go with the neuralgic attitude of Trump towards the
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  EU. He's never liked the EU much.
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  Why is that? Because he sees it as a trade
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  bloc that rivals America. Does he want to destroy the EU?
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  Does he want to see a crumble? I don't think he wants to see a
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  crumble. I just think he is trying to
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  find leverage over it. I agree with you.
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  I think it's a lot of it is meeting of peers in terms of
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  market size when it comes to trade.
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  And you know, he likes to be the winning party.
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  OK, so the the UK having left the EU, we're kind of without a
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  gang at the moment, aren't we? We're not in the EU gang.
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  The special relationship, well, it's got it's, it's got it's, I
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  mean, first of all, it's a sort of, it's the crack cocaine of
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  diplomacy for Brits anyway. Americans are slightly kind of
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  less, less enamored of it, but they pay deference to it.
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  So does are we now exposed in this country?
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  Because special relationship could be very toxic for us.
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  We're not part of the European gang.
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  Specifically, Keir Starmer wants to align us more and more
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  towards Europe. But every alignment might mean
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  that the Americans say, well, you wanted that trade deal.
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  You know, you've chlorinated chicken, you know, whatever.
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  You know, hormone beef, you're not going to get it.
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  You're not going to get this deal if you get too close to
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  Europe. Where do you see this?
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  I, I definitely think it makes it harder for Prime Minister
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  Starmer. I think, as you rightly point
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  out, Starmer is, is trying to, to bring the UKA bit close to
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  the EU. At the same time, President
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  Trump will come and probably again start talking about trade
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  agreements between the US and the UK.
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  If, if the UK is going to move more into the EU's orbit that in
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  President Trump's mind will likely mean to move away from
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  the USI think that'll make it more difficult.
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  Especially Starmer has also been making inroads into his own
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  foreign policy doctrine. And he also offered Mr. Trump
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  hearty congratulations. We've never offered hearty
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  congratulations to anyone. What was that all about?
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  Well, I think that was all about exactly that, that he knows he's
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  between a rock and a hard place. And the only answer I would say.
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  Flattery. No.
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  Deploy the king yes, because we know that president-elect Trump
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  really likes the royal family. He was extremely respectful to
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  the queen. I think he would be respectful
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  to King Charles as well. Deploy the king and.
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  You know what else? I'd heard this from John Bolton,
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  who is not a fan of Trump, so you take it with a pinch of
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  salt. And it's a mutual, you know, non
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  fandom. But he said Trump loves the
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  title and he loves the fact that it's Sir Keir Starmer.
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  Well, few. Few exactly because and he said
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  apparently, well, Boris has never had a title, Boris
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  Johnson, that would be so Sir Keir Starmer together with King
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  Charles the third, that is a very potent mixture potentially.
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  OK, let's move on to Ukraine. This is the big one, the
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  important one. When I saw Zelensky back in
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  January in his bunker in Kiev, he said, also are Trump and
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  Trump's offer, promise, pledge to, you know, bring peace in 24
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  hours. And he said, well, you know,
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  we're open to what he's got to say.
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  Let him come here to Kiev to tell us about it.
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  Yeah. But the key, I think the key
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  thing at the moment is that people are talking about
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  territory. And I think there's one of the
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  people closely allied with with president-elect Trump to said,
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  look, you know, Ukrainians have got to accept they've lost on
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  bass, they've lost Crimea. Territory isn't the point.
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  Most of that territory is useless anyway.
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  It's riddled with landmines. That's 700 years to clear.
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  The point is if and the borders of Ukraine have moved many times
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  over the centuries. The issue is where is Ukraine
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  aligned? Because what Putin's vision is,
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  is a neutral Ukraine and a neutered Ukraine and a Ukraine
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  that is not allowed to join NATO and not allowed to join the
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  European Union. And preferably with a puppet
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  government. But for for Zelensky and for
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  Europe, the possibility of joining NATO and the EU has to
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  be an essential part of it. And that, I think, is much more
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  critical than lines on a map. I totally agree.
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  And I think there's no way that Zelensky can sell any deal to
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  his own people if it doesn't involve NATO or EU membership.
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  Absolutely. And not just, yeah, maybe some
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  at some stage down the road, but I mean, literally on Monday,
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  something very, very concrete that they can believe in.
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  It could be Tuesday or Wednesday, but they've got to
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  believe in it. What do you think, Michael?
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  I agree with that. I think the the president will
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  come in and think of it like, how does this benefit him?
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  And, and I think, you know, maybe an unrecognized point is
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  he doesn't want to have terms dictated to him.
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  He wants to be able to come in and say them, right.
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  So there might be the site this, the idea of like land and all of
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  this and, and what maybe Putin might want out of Ukraine
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  afterwards. I don't know necessarily if
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  President Trump is going to come in and say, OK, maybe you're
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  right. I think he might come in with
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  his own terms. But but so this Trump is a guy
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  who famously doesn't like the European Union, might want to
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  see it crumble or didn't care if it did.
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  And he's not a great believer in NATO either, as we know.
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  So there are two institutions that the that Zelensky and
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  Ukraine care about deeply existentially, that Putin
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  absolutely hates and Trump could be non committal on.
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  I know where I would put my money.
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  Absolutely. But I think that there's one
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  other thing, which is about weapons.
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  So he has said like no more military aid to Ukraine.
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  Well, you know who military aid to Ukraine has been really good
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  for the American arms industry. It's doing tremendously well.
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  Transaction with Mr. Trump be transactional and I think one of
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  the things which the Europeans are looking at or other NATO
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  countries are looking at is the possibility to say Trump says
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  you want to arm Ukraine, then you have to pay for it, you want
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  to support Ukraine. So what if Europe says, OK,
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  we're going to carry on arming Ukraine, but we're going to buy
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  American weapons. That's the kind of deal I think
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  that might see some way forward. So, Michael, as someone who
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  knows Trump and he's seen him in, you know, the conference
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  room, you've seen him as he's being flattered.
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  What is the kind of language, the kind of transaction, actual
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  offer that might persuade him that a Ukraine inside NATO and
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  the EU would be a good idea and reflect well on him?
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  Yeah, I think it's exactly this point about trade, Like what
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  what are what are some of the the jobs, the investment, the
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  growth that's going to happen in America because of this?
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  And equally like, how is this going to not cost him and the US
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  government money in the future? And I think these are very
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  thorny problems when it comes to a conflict like this.
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  Like just to say it diplomatically, but like, I do
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  think that he will approach this thinking what, how do I get the
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  best for the US? And that the transactionalism,
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  like I think I saw the an announcement that the EU is
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  allowing for certain funds now to be spent on defence rather
• 14:44
  than like social cohesion. Like, you know, I think these
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  are these are steps in that direction of like a recognition
• 14:50
  that President Trump like first and foremost is there to like
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  bring gains for him and like the presidency and ultimately the US
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  as he sees. OK.
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  One of the questions we're trying to explore today is
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  whether Trump could actually be quite good.
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  You know, a lot of people think it'd be bad, but could be quite
• 15:06
  good for certain institutions, relations, situations.
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  So let me ask you this could Trump's kind of whatever they
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  will be red lines on Ukraine actually helped to bring the war
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  to an end in a way that is acceptable for all the sides
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  involved, yes or no? I think so, yeah.
• 15:22
  Lindsay. I think it could bring the war
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  to an end, or at least it could freeze it.
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  It's very hard to see that it would be acceptable to all those
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  involved because if it ends with Ukraine being neutral, not
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  joining the EU or NATO and having no chance of that, what
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  have all those young Ukrainians died for?
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  They've died for nothing. Could Trump save the European
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  Union from itself or not? Yes, because I think he as a
• 15:49
  polarizing figure, he does tend to bring people close together.
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  OK, interesting. Lindsay No.
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  No, I think he couldn't. I don't know if he can destroy
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  the European Union, but he can certainly fragment it more.
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  But you know, there is a received wisdom amongst NATO,
• 16:05
  sort of NATO officials, that on NATO, this idea that everybody
• 16:09
  has to pay more for their own defence and not rely on America.
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  There are some people within NATO who think that that is
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  right. The question is, can they sell
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  that to their own populations, A new German government which will
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  come in as this one's collapsed, or this British government, can
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  they say to their own populations, you know what,
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  we're going to spend a lot more on defence.
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  So sorry about the hospitals. And schools, it's a.
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  Pretty hard sell, isn't? It OK, here's another one.
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  Could Trump prevent the Chinese prevent Xi Jinping from invading
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  Taiwan because he would be so confused about what Trump might
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  do in response? So, you know, getting back to
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  constructive ambiguity, XI. Jinping Ambiguity, yes, because
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  I think he there's a lot of doubt about whether or not he'll
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  do it, but I don't think it's a certainty that he wouldn't.
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  So I would say yeah. That was sort of the case with
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  Biden before as well. Was that until he just XI?
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  Jinping, the Chinese are very unlikely, I would say, to invade
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  Taiwan. What they might do is a
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  blockade. And that is a much more
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  complicated thing because then it's a denial of, of shipping
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  rights and so on. But they can blockade Taiwan.
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  And I, I think, I don't think that, you know, Trump is going
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  to say send the cavalry to save Taiwan.
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  In fact, he has said he wouldn't.
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  OK, Middle East, Israel and Iran are in a de facto war already.
• 17:28
  We know that Trump did things for Israel in the past that even
• 17:31
  the Israelis hadn't dreamt would happen.
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  Will he basically, how far will he go on Israel's side, enabling
• 17:39
  them to fight Iran? Is he with them all the way or
• 17:42
  does he not like that because it it, it's too much, it's too
• 17:45
  dangerous? And will he allow the Israelis
• 17:48
  to annex the West Bank? First to you, Michael.
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  Oh, those are big questions. I, I think he'll be more
• 17:54
  supportive than President Biden. I don't know how far.
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  I don't think he wants the US to be dragged into like boots on
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  the ground type warfare in terms.
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  Of but let you know doesn't listen to anyone.
• 18:04
  He didn't listen to the Americans of last year.
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  Is he now going to actually get a green light to do what he
• 18:08
  wants? I think I think, like, the Trump
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  uncertainty factor there might give Netanyahu a bit of pause on
• 18:15
  it, to be honest, because I think he's been able to play
• 18:18
  this game of chicken with President Biden and push the
• 18:21
  envelope and like, ultimately, as you say, do what he wants.
• 18:23
  I don't know necessarily if he'll be able to do that with
• 18:25
  President Trump. I do think President Trump is a
• 18:27
  bit more of a firm negotiator in that sense.
• 18:29
  In terms of annexation of the West Bank.
• 18:31
  Honestly, I don't know and I don't want to make a stand,
• 18:33
  sorry. Look on Iran, if the Israelis
• 18:37
  want to attack the nuclear facilities which are deep
• 18:39
  underground around, they need American help.
• 18:42
  President Trump has said that he does not want to start any new
• 18:45
  wars. So he might have to start a new
• 18:48
  war if the he was going to aid the Israelis in making a
• 18:54
  basically a decisive intervention in Iran.
• 18:57
  And he may be told by some of his advisors that however much
• 19:01
  they hate Iran, they could look back to what happened in Iraq
• 19:04
  when the Americans invaded, which was not that you woke up
• 19:07
  the next morning with this marvellous democracy that loved
• 19:10
  the Americans. What you woke up with was chaos.
• 19:13
  And that would be likely what you would have in Iran as well.
• 19:16
  You would have regime change. So I do think there will be
• 19:18
  people around him who may be pointing that out big and partly
• 19:23
  because you don't have the ideologues like John Bolton on
• 19:25
  the West Bank. The right wing members of the
• 19:29
  Israeli cabinet are already talking about 2025 being the
• 19:33
  year of annexing the West Bank. And when Trump was in power
• 19:37
  before he agreed with them connecting E Jerusalem, he built
• 19:41
  the new embassy there. He agreed with him annex in the
• 19:44
  Golan Heights, in Golan Heights, Yeah, it was in West Jerusalem,
• 19:48
  but he agreed with the annexation of Jerusalem.
• 19:49
  He moved the embassy to to Jerusalem.
• 19:52
  I think the chances of the government, the Israeli
• 19:55
  government being allowed to annex the West Bank and possibly
• 20:01
  even start new settlements in Gaza, I think the chances of
• 20:04
  that are quite high. I mean.
• 20:06
  One interesting thing is Saudi Arabia, right?
• 20:09
  Because the Saudis have been making, I mean, we know that
• 20:13
  Mohammed bin Salman got on famously with with Trump and
• 20:15
  there was that famous meeting in the Oval Office where they
• 20:18
  pulled out the investment graphs and then Jared Kushner was the
• 20:20
  the, the architect of the Abraham Accords and so on.
• 20:24
  But it's interesting that the Saudis just in the last few days
• 20:27
  have been sort of coating up to Tehran, at least rhetorically,
• 20:29
  even more after quite a few visits in the last year.
• 20:33
  And then for the first time, Mohammed bin Salman called what
• 20:36
  is going on in Gaza genocide. So how significant is that?
• 20:39
  I think it's pretty. I think that Mohammed Salman,
• 20:43
  um, will be a very important person in all of this because
• 20:48
  Trump likes him, of course, Jared Kushner, who was, you
• 20:51
  know, MBSS best friend, he's no longer part of the.
• 20:55
  But I think maybe. Don Junior will start to play
• 20:58
  that role. Who knows?
• 20:59
  But I think that those Gulf countries, not just Mohammed bin
• 21:03
  Salman, but also the UAE and so on, I think that they will have
• 21:06
  a lot of sway with Trump and his people.
• 21:08
  And that is the thing that may moderate the the policy on on
• 21:12
  Israel. So.
• 21:13
  So we might actually avoid a wider war in the Middle East
• 21:16
  with Trump in the White House. I could see that happening,
• 21:19
  yeah. OK, I love the fact that we're
• 21:21
  going to spend literally a few minutes talking about climate
• 21:23
  change. They've got COP 29 going on
• 21:25
  right now. I mean, they must be tearing
• 21:27
  their hair out. And I wonder if the is the best
• 21:30
  hope for climate change, people who don't like it want to do
• 21:33
  something about it for net zero. Is is it a guy called Elon Musk
• 21:36
  who produces lots of electrical cars and might actually think
• 21:39
  that drill, baby Drill, which is one of Trump's many election
• 21:42
  slogans, goes against his own interests?
• 21:45
  Yeah, I think when it comes to to climate change, obviously
• 21:50
  President Trump famously skeptical, skeptical of it pulls
• 21:53
  the US out of any agreement that they can that he can do.
• 21:56
  At the same time, when it comes to Elon Musk, you know, he's
• 21:59
  benefiting a lot from the Inflation Reduction Act.
• 22:01
  Like for some of these big legislative pieces that suck
• 22:04
  investment into the US on like the net 0 front, you know,
• 22:08
  depending on how Congress goes, I could see, I could see it
• 22:11
  coming more from the legislative rather than the the president.
• 22:16
  But when it comes to international stuff, I I don't
• 22:18
  see it being a thing like climate change.
• 22:20
  But is there any is, are there any?
• 22:21
  I mean, you know, he's he's received a lot of funding from
• 22:23
  the oil industry. You know, he's told them that if
• 22:26
  he wins the election, they can do what the hell they like.
• 22:28
  He is, you know, he's there's no one in his cabinet as far as I
• 22:31
  can tell, so far from all the names circulated, who is even
• 22:35
  doffs the smallest little cap towards, you know, the issue of
• 22:38
  climate change. I mean, this is a massive deal,
• 22:41
  isn't? It no, it's a massive deal.
• 22:42
  I mean, the only thing which I would say which might make a
• 22:44
  difference is that if you look at what's happening in America,
• 22:47
  the private sector and also cities, a lot of cities have
• 22:51
  changed their policies to become carbon neutral, to aim at being
• 22:54
  carbon neutral and also states. So you do have a fair amount,
• 22:57
  you know, because you have a federal system and you have a
• 22:59
  fair amount of, you know, decentralisation in America.
• 23:02
  So I think you will also you will continue to get some move
• 23:06
  towards trying to curb carbon emissions.
• 23:08
  But yes, the wider policy is is going to be drill, baby, drill.
• 23:13
  But even if you have California behaving like Finland, if the
• 23:16
  federal government is not on board, then you know, China and
• 23:18
  India, who burn tons of coal, although they're also doing a
• 23:21
  lot of renewable stuff, especially Chinese, they will
• 23:23
  turn and say, well, why should we bother?
• 23:25
  You know, why should we bother? The only thing that would
• 23:28
  convince Trump, I would say is what we said was Elon Musk
• 23:32
  saying this is good for business.
• 23:35
  So finally, final question. I spoke to a very senior member
• 23:38
  of the British military the other day, retired now, but he
• 23:42
  but he knows his stuff and he said let's not talk about World
• 23:45
  War three. We are already in the foothills
• 23:47
  of a World War three, which sounds very alarming.
• 23:51
  Is Trump going to make ultimately?
• 23:53
  Is Trump going to make the world safer or more dangerous?
• 23:56
  I think more dangerous in the short term, but I think the long
• 24:00
  term. More dangerous in the short
• 24:01
  term. I think so, yeah, because I
• 24:02
  think he injects volatility, injects uncertainty amongst like
• 24:06
  allies and partners. There's always going to be a
• 24:08
  scepticism of like the credibility of of America.
• 24:10
  I think the American government is so big and so like
• 24:13
  institutionalized and structured that ultimately, like one man
• 24:16
  can't make huge differences. But I think the rhetoric will
• 24:19
  give pause for like, you know, global norms in that sense.
• 24:22
  But I think, you know, in the long term, you might end up
• 24:24
  having the same thing happen that happened with NATO where he
• 24:27
  was so focused on 2% payments that now like more than I think
• 24:32
  it's 3/4 of NATO members hit their two.
• 24:33
  Percent helping out from Mr. Putin, yeah.
• 24:36
  Yes, of course, but. What do you think, Lindsey?
• 24:39
  He wants to undermine the institutions that have kept at
• 24:42
  least the Western world reasonably stable since the end
• 24:45
  of World War 2. He wants to undermine the
• 24:48
  European Union. He wants to undermine NATO.
• 24:50
  He wants to undermine the United Nations.
• 24:53
  Because he thinks America is getting a raw deal out of those
• 24:55
  institutes. Indeed.
• 24:56
  And so he wants, as he says, America first.
• 25:00
  And I think the problem is that if you have America First rather
• 25:03
  than abroad, international rules based system as the diplomats
• 25:07
  call it, that leads to more volatility and vulnerability.
• 25:11
  And I think that it also leads to more competition with China
• 25:15
  and with Russia, which with China, it may start off with
• 25:17
  trade and so on, but that isn't necessarily where it ends.
• 25:21
  But probably by then we'll all be dead.
• 25:24
  That's a very cheerful. OK.
• 25:26
  Lindsay Hilton, the Eternal ever young Lindsay Hilson.
• 25:32
  Well, thank you so much, Lindsay.
• 25:33
  I'm. I have to say, I'm.
• 25:34
  I was going to buy a Fallout Shelter.
• 25:35
  I might not bother now. You know, Lindsay Hilson,
• 25:37
  Michael Martins, thanks to both of you.
• 25:39
  That's it from the American Forecast.
• 25:40
  Goodbye. Thanks for watching.
• 25:42
  See you soon.