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$30+ Silver is Inevitable with Craig Hemke #6064 · Financial Survival Network

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Hard part when you're talking about gold or even the stock market at this point
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is we're at all time highs. You know when when you've been at a
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high and then you pull back and then you rally again. You can look
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at it go okay, there's you can look at the charge where there should
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be resistance here and there should be support there, and that kind of thing,
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because we have history. You're listening to Carrie Leutz's Financial Survival Network where
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you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to thrive in today's trying
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times. You need the Financial Survival Network now more than ever. Go to
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Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network
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now more than ever. Welcome you are watching and listening to the Financial Survival
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Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Hey, we're exactly in mid
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May here. Interesting things are going on with a dollar, copper, oil,
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gold, and silver, not the least of which our good friend from
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TF Metals Report dot com, Craighempke is with us now to go through these
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markets. Greg, Great to see you. So what is going on with
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these markets here? A lot? How's that? That's just okay, you'd
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be more vague. You know, it's been a remarkable year so far,
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especially you know with my focus of the precious metals, we hear the metals
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have broken out for a number of different reasons. Obviously, everybody wants to
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narrow it down to one, and I think that's impossible. There's there's probably
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five or six. But they've broken out before the FED started to cut.
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You know, we we have fought our way through. I mean, used
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to go back to the first of the year. Carry market market was anticipating
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seven rate cuts. All right, where are dollary decks? Was a hurt?
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Good? Yeah, well that just it. So if you know,
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we go back and I'm sure we were probably and when I put out my
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annual forecast back in January, I bet that we probably spoke back then and
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we talked about how, you know, that's got to come down. There's
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no way they're cutting rates seven times. That's just not going to happen.
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And so we have fought our way through, going from seven rate cuts down
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to like one maybe two dollar inext going from one hundred and one to one
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hundred and six, and that's back under one oh five yeld of the ten
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year notes got up by fifty basis points, and yet gold's up some fifteen
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percent year today. Now maybe I don't know, Maybe it's just gotten way
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out ahead of itself. I don't know, but I think there's a combination
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of factors going on here that have driven this. And now you throw on
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this notion that the economy's rolling over, we're getting into that stagflation you and
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I have been talking about for four years. We could get another surge higher
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in the precious metals, relatively similing in that I think would be fun for
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everyone. If five hundred, Yeah, if you look at the charge,
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see, that's what's always hard carry, you know, because then you know,
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I like to look at the charts. I'm not like sure Is Elliott
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wave guys and all this other jazz. But I do think you combine that
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with fundamental stuff and it kind of gives you a picture, you know,
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which way the market is heading. Hard part when you're talking about gold or
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even the stock market at this point is we're at all time highs. You
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know, when when you've been at a high and then you pull back and
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then you rally again. You can look at it go okay, there's you
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can look at the charge where there should be resistance here and there should be
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support there, and that kind of thing, because we have history but goals,
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and it's never been before. Yeah, you're off you know, beyond
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which there be dragons. Right, You're off the map, and so that
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makes it difficult. But I do think there's ways you've been kind of project
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it forward and just just kind of natural sentiment of things, and so yeah,
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you know, I uh, there will probably be an inclination here from
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where we are here on the fifteenth of May, there'd be an inclination or
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an effort made to paint some double tops, so people should be on the
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lookout for that. You go back to the middle of April, five weeks
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ago or so, Gold got up to about twenty four to twenty Silver got
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within a whisker of thirty airs breath. Yeah, yeah, and then you
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know pulled back you know, some natural resistance there, especially in silver,
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and now here we are getting back those levels. I would anticipate an effort
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made to paint the charts with a double top sometime in the next week or
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two, just as a line of defense for all of these banks that have
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all of these shorts. I mean again, when you're in an all time
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high, every short is underwater. Every short ever created is underwater. So
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that has to be managed. So I would anticipate that. But you know,
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Powell Terry, when back at the March FMC interviews that he did after
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that and then again at the May FMC said he is watching the labor market
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real closely. He knew the thing they hike too late and inflation got away
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from him. He doesn't want to cut too late, and they have the
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economy tank and so he has said, and I'm not I got paraphrasing,
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but I'm anybody canna look this up. He has said repeatedly that if he
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sets his weakness in the labor market, they will cut. They'll put inflation
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on the back burner and they'll cut. Well, we're starting to see that
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that the latest jobs report was weak. Some of the internal stuff over the
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last couple of weeks has been a week. So if we get now into
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the summertime and all of a sudden the Fed does cut or start out actively
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talking about cutting, any double top painting by the banks isn't going to hold.
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And that's what we'll look for. You that'll be the signal. Hey,
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So yeah, I don't see where they have any choice. They're going
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to have to cut and we talked about that, but they want to put
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it off to the last possible moment. On the other hand, the FED,
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Powell said Chairman Powell absolutely despises the challenger to the throne and has come
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out, maybe not on the record, but through leaks as supporting the current
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occupant of the White House. So I remember one time Alan A. Wilson
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wrote in Barons he was a longstanding editor Barons. He said, the FED
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is now doing what it does best, helping to get a president re elected.
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Yeah, when are they going to fall into that mode? Right?
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Because they are a political institution, even though they pretend not to be.
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But everything is political nowadays, no doubt. And that was and I mentioned
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that forecast for this year. I had to write about that because that's to
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be expected, right. I mean, even if you think Powell is at
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the top, is try so hard to be a political and he wears a
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purple necktie every time you see him in public, right, Yeah, just
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like mother Yellinois wears that purple pants suit. You know, they're trying to
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give this subliminal message that they're a combination of red and blue. It's not
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my mother. So there will be pressure as we go through the summer.
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It will start. It's already started with Folcahattas and Bernie Sanders at AOC,
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you know, all talking about, oh, the people need a break,
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you know, credit card rates you're so high, you know, and all
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this kind of stuff. The pressure will mount. We've seen now, you
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know, this uptick back up in the unemployment rate. You know, the
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job's number, the headline number they always tout, whatever, but the unemployment
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right is what Powell says he's going to be watching. It ticked down,
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it ticked back up, it starts trending above four four, four point one,
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four point two. It'll come and then we'll see how the markets bond
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to that. They might initially go blonkers. You know, you might get
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the S and P to surge another eight ten percent or something, and that
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might be enough to surge gold up to twenty five twenty six hundred, and
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silver through thirty to thirty five. Then about that time, that might be
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the time that when everybody's all excited, that we start getting you know,
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we get a pullback again, but I sure think that. I mean,
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Paul has told you that hillcut rates if there's any sign of weakness in labor
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mark, and we're certainly starting to see that weakness where I see in layoffs
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galore. I think it's been long, but the numbers are all cooked.
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I mean, you just can't believe any numbers. But right, big news.
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Copper on the CRIMEX broke five bucks. Hey, it's trading it close
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to that in the London Metals Exchange. What is your take on it?
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It's different than mine. Well, I apologize if that little noise came through
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somebody trying to call me on Skype, So I don't know a fat don't
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you love it and hear it? We're good good anyway, if I look
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distracted for a minute. Copper is a very interesting story. We relate this
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all evently back to silver, right, because silver's banging up against this thirty
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dollars level which has contained it now for almost four years. Okay, gold
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broke out of its range back in March and immediately shot more than ten percent
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higher, right, and it's still up here. Did that break silver out?
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No? Okay, Well, maybe if gold goes higher it will well
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what else could break drag silver kicking and screaming a move in copper, because
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copper and silver at this point are basically I mean, silver is more like
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copper than it is gold at this moment in history. Yeah, he was
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a conductor of electricity and everything else still has monetary components that may return at
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some point. You got people invest in silver. They don't invest in copper,
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but you get the idea. Okay, I refer back. I mentioned
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this this forecast I every year. In January of twenty twenty three, in
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my forecast, I had a whole section on copper because as twenty twenty three
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began, there were all sorts of analysts and investment banks, even golden Sachs
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that were saying above ground copper stock piles could be extinct by August, not
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August this year, August last year. Wow, and copper was going right,
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and then it isn't never die. They found some I guess what warehouse
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was it? The lurking in exactly? Well, now hold on, let's
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fast forward about an extra eight months. Maybe they were all early. Maybe
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they were all early, because now copper is going through the roof. We're
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seeing all kinds of sides that kind of I found something on Twitter about some
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what I kind of now the name has cased me, but some rates that
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smelters pay for copper con to trade being negative, meaning they're paying for it
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trying to secure supply. All these different signs that copper is suddenly in a
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serious supply shortage. So maybe you know, some of these banks that were
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looking for above ground copper to really be in trouble and supply shortages by late
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last year, maybe that's now all coming to fruition. The price people should
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watch, though, is not the COMEX copper price. That's what gets quoted
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all the time. As we record this earlier today that went to five thirteen
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a pound and then immediately fell back, like to for eighty five a pound.
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I mean that's a huge move, went up seven percent and then fell
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five percent. That's all speculus stuff. There's no copper that gets delivered in
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New York, just like there's no gold or silver apermarket. Right. If
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you want to watch the copper price, watch the LME price of London Metals
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Exchange. That's more of your international benchmark. It's an actual functioning market to
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actually deliver metal there. That's the one that right now, it's about two
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hundred dollars a ton. You could do that math and go, okay,
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well there's two thousand pounds and a ton, so that's five dollars a pound.
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What the comax price is going to continue to do this kind of stuff?
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Right in terms of copper, they'll watch that that that tonnage price,
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it got up to ten thousand dollars, kind of ran into psychological resistance,
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banged around. It's now really established a foothold above ten thousand. A lot
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of the big investment banks have moved up their price target and now twelve thousand
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dollars a ton. Okay, Well, if that's the case, then you
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could expect that comax copper price to go to five seventy five eighty six dollars
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all time highs. And now getting back finally to where I started this carry.
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Yeah, if gold goes higher because of what's Powell's doing all this kind
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of stuff and goes to say twenty five hundred, and if copper goes to
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six dollars a pound, Silver's not gonna stay at twenty eight twenty nine,
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Okay, It's just not. And so when it finally gets drag kicking and
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screaming through that resistance level at thirty it's a really high likelihood it will go
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to thirty four, thirty five in relatively short order. That's gonna have big
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impacts on the mining shares. And that's all something people show. So watch
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copper closely in the day's head. So so your feeling is that when this
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thing breaks out, okay, and it will, that it's going to finally
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take the junior miners with it temporarily at least, yes, you know,
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and I and I say that temporarily just because of the natural ebb and flow.
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Right, you and I have discussed the past the clear correlation between not
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gold and the gold miners or the ets. But right, yeah, you
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get silver to run to thirty five or thirty six, the miner's gonna go
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with it. My guess is we will add then, is let's say that
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plays out of the course of summer, Powell starts cutting rains and get this
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surge. You know, we get into June July and this happens again.
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There have been a lot of peaks in the precious metals short term at least
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that have occurred in the summer months. Okay, this could be another one.
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It wouldn't surprise me, based on how these things have gone over the
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decade plus that I've been watching, if it didn't happen again, you know,
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you get this another big rush forward, and and that now this one
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finally Silver's into the thirties. Everybody's excited. Here we go, and there's
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gonna be people all over Twitter talking about silver gonna do. And it will.
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But my plan will be when that happens to maybe be a little little
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cautious at that point, because you know how it is. When everybody in
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this sector gets all excited, that usually is some kind of top yeah,
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and the sheet and they know how to time it exactly, you know,
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to bring that price down right, Yeah, and then everybody gets depressed,
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you know, and think, oh okay. And then again all that's because
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of the fundamentals, because of the exploding debt. You know, thirty whatever's
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thirty five trillion down right, two trillion dollars a year at extra debt,
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the interest on the national debt now a trillion dollars a year, exceeding even
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defense spending. All that, all of that stuff, yeah, in the
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end is what then makes it go even higher again. But there will probably
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be a point, if I'm right about another surge board in the next sixty
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days, when we'll probably get another pullback. The tree grow to the sky,
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right, right, not in this current not straight up markets, right.
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And you know, it's it's important to realize that in addition to all
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this, we've got a very weak banking sector. They say it's just it's
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limited just to the community and smaller banks. I don't believe it. And
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I think that if you would just what Powell said that when employment starts to
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get affected, if you just say, when mass bank failures are thretned,
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substitute that, then he's going to cut. He has to cut for that
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reason alone. Right. So you got employment and you've got a shaky bank
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sector. Yes, and that's a bad combination, especially in an election year,
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right, right. And the only way you can pay off or manage
16:18
the debt is with the cheaper dollars to tomorrow. You paid today's and yesterday's
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debt with the cheaper dollars of tomorrow. And eventually, again this is not
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next week, okay or next month, but eventually they're going to go down
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the path of yelkurve control. Yeah, because they have to. Now.
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When gold took off again, we started this by like, wow, it
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took off before the FED even started cutting. On the first of March.
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It was Friday, the first of March, gold shot forty dollars higher,
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rose at all time and weekly high and daily high like twenty eighty nine something
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like that, and then it broke out one hundred dollars higher the next week.
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What out On the first of March, Fed goon Waller gave us speed
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each and he said, we want to do a couple of things going forwar,
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at least what I want to do, he said, I want to
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roll us out of some of the longer term stuff into the shorter term stuff.
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Yeah, I'm sure, uninvert deal curve. But then that will also
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give us room for the next round of QE to buy long term stuff.
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And everybody went, wait a second, the next round of QE what so
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what I limited it stopped? When did QE stop? Well, no,
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exactly, And so what's going to eventually come? I mean, this is
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a kid. It has to otherwise the whole thing will do this, the
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banking sector, everything is They're going to be printing money to fund all the
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ongoing deficits, then they're going to do yield curve control to cap. The
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Fed will just say we are we are buyers above a certain level. We
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will always be buyers above three percent or whatever they decide. It's going to
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be, just like the Bank of Japan has been. And when you get
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to that point, now, all of a sudden you don't have sharply negative
18:00
real rates again because of inflation everything else. And that's when you know that's
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it. Yep, yeah, yeah, yeah, Well, hey, monetization
18:08
of the debt. That's all that Quey is is just monetizing the debt.
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Right, But it's a fine line because when you do it too fast,
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then you undermine confidence and you jack up inflation. Like, hey, why
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are the headlines in the papers yesterday? PPI experts surprised that PPI came out
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higher than expected? Right? Who could be surprised by that? I'm only
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surprised it wasn't higher. Yeah, it's a number, and that's a cook
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number anyway, right, right, like every every other bit of government data
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election year, Garry, Yeah, exactly what until this last report a week
18:52
ago, what every single headline job number had beaten expectations for thirteen out of
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fourteen months or whatever one was right. Yeah, yeah, I don't think
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you can believe any of that. Can you go back? And it's not
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just election here, how many times they have to manage whatever the basket of
19:07
goods are in CPI anyway to create nice adjustments with stuff and it get it
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all, It all pieces together in the management of the debt because if you
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can convince the market that inflation is only two percent, then you will buy
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treasury bonds at three percent or four percent or whatever because you're getting a positive,
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real way to return. But if they were to actually report right what
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inflation really is, no one's gonna buy a treasury at three or four percent
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except the FED. And that's for that's where we're headed. And that's that's
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the name of the game. Hey, it's just the whole world is collapsing
19:44
at once here. You know, it's every plate, it's everywhere, and
19:48
this really exempt. So you know, when we go back to a gold
19:52
standard, always said it will be because it's the only option right right,
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right, And historically that's how the pedge will swings. You know, you
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begin your your currency begins backed by goals that people have confidence to use it
20:06
right, great for goods and services, and you hold it because there's got
20:10
some value that anchor cycle, right, And then the politicians get a hold
20:14
of it and they want their power, so then they want a more currency
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for their wars and their social programs and everything else. Eventually you go off
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the golds Diader like Nixon did, and then you swing all the way over
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here to where the base things basically worthless, and then nobody wants it.
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And then all of a sudden you got to get some confidence again, and
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so it swings back over here and you back it again. And that's that's
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the direction we're headed. Hey, And wars and bubbles that go together,
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you know. The whole thing. The South Sea bubble was about paying off
20:45
the England's war debt. It was a scam to pay it off, and
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then it turned into a bubble, and then the Louisiana Land purchase all of
20:55
that. Some bubbles and wars and inflation all go together. But okay,
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yeah, I just find it really interesting that no matter what happens, the
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cycles just keep repeating themselves. We never get any smarter, you know,
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don't we just don't? All right? Then, well, hey, that
21:17
is it for today. Make sure you go over to greg site TF metals
21:21
Report dot com and there it is in the in the screen and show.
21:27
There's a link in the show notes on Financial Survival Network dot com. How
21:32
much? How much are you getting these days? Because you know Starbucks h
21:37
the price of Starbucks has gone up. I started a site called Inflation Cafe
21:42
Inflation dot Cafe where we outline, we highlight all of these stories about inflation.
21:49
And it got inspired because in Starbucks, my latte has doubled in the
21:56
past four years. It's ridiculous. And and they've increased the amount of foam.
22:02
And then their loyalty program. You know, it's loyalty from the customers.
22:07
Whenever you see these loyalty programs, it's disloyalty from the company. They
22:11
used to give you one free drink a month. They got rid of that.
22:15
They used to give me a free drink on my birthday, they got
22:18
rid of that. They cut back the points. I mean, hey,
22:21
complete disloyalty. So I thought they were entitled to have a website named after
22:27
them, and it's the Inflation dot Cafe where dollars go to die. I
22:33
get I like it. Well, I'm guilty a little bit of that out
22:37
of my site. I started all this back in twenty ten. Oh my
22:41
god. I quickly figured out this ad revenue thing and being beholded to Google.
22:45
Yeah, not a good toa then ain't gonna fly. So in twenty
22:51
thirteen, and to keep out the trolls, we started charging everybody ten bucks
22:55
a month. It's currently fifteen, so it's up fifty percent. But over
23:00
the last eleven years, that's not bad. That's pretty good. I think
23:04
you have aren't even to what's happened at Starbucks, right, And if I
23:10
could look, I just tell people everybody knows stuff's not free, right,
23:12
Fifteen dollars about what you spend maybe for a magazine subscription, you know,
23:17
or to the website of your favorite sports team or whatever. But I say
23:22
this all the time. My site's different. Man, we keep track of
23:26
everything. But it's not just me. It's everybody on the site that's keeping
23:30
track of everything too. It's a time like this, man, you need
23:33
as much community. I had boots on the ground as you can. And
23:38
you can't count on your neighbor or the people you know, because they're all
23:41
running out of their head in the sand trying to keep track of their old
23:44
lives. But you can come to t F Metals Report. You can find
23:45
a whole community of people looking out for each other, so and so for
23:51
fifteen bucks a month. That's a pretty good deal, absolutely all right.
23:53
Links in the show notes. Make sure you sign up for our free newsletter,
23:56
Craig's got one as well, Financial Survival at work dot com. Craig,
24:00
We'll talk to you in a month or two, or when I promise
24:03
you that some goal breaks twenty five hundred will get you on that day.
24:07
Okay here alright, he sounds like a deal. Thanks. That always a
24:11
pleasure. Thanks for listening to carry Letz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to
24:17
today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com.
24:22
Financial Survival Network now more than ever.