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NFL Week 17 Best Bets · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We're on Own
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: anything like this. I mean, the slump continuing, two straight losses,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four that have
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man with wookends the slump
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached into pink. Actually,
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: I'm going to burn my browins hat man, I don't
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: know what is going on with the bruins archhape? Is
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: that what it is? I don't even know it's It's
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I don't
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: know what day it is anymore. But I don't even
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: know what day it is anymore. Man, back with you
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could possibly have, Back
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: with you as I always am until I die, at
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did not
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: go well for me. Own five the worst month that
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this, I
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: To the slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: should do at this point, other than potentially end it all.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: What's up? Everybody's towed back with these toad stool sports.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: NFL Week seventeen, the penultimate week. It's one of these weeks, man,
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: where you got to gauge motivation for teams. You gotta
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: look at all the playoff scenarios, got to try to
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: figure it out. One rule that I usually like to use,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: as I already talked about a little bit about today's games, uh,
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: I tend to think the teams that can control their
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: own destiny they don't do as well. It's like the
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: pressure is on them. The market over adjust to that
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: fact and usually don't get value on them. Teams that
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: don't control their own destiny usually play a little bit
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: looser because it's out of their hands. So I think
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: that's what we got going on. To me, we had
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: a nice win tonight with the Ravens. I'm two and
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: zero in my my splash contest here this week so far,
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: so I'm in the money, baby, I'm probably going to
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: be in the money heading into the final week. I
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: don't think I can win the contests or anything like that,
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: but I want to be up, you know, as much
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: as possible. I want to win as much as possible.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: I'm going to win something, but hopefully I'll win a
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: decent amount. But hell, yeah, mister Pinsey, what's up? I
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: don't know what that means? Finger finger red number one?
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Thank you, sir. We got lucky on the on the
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: bowl game, but I'll take it you parlayed those three well,
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: thank you. Yeah. I mean that Bowl game looked like
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: it was going to be a loser. I mean, I
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: definitely nailed the NBA game. The hockey game is looking okay.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, at least one thing that you could say
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: is a North Texas. Their defense didn't show up in
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: that game, so there is at least that the offense
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: looked good but the defense did not. So I'm I'm
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: glad it was a winner, but yeah, it was dicey.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: We are. We're three and one in the in the
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: bowls and playoffs so far, so I will take that
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: and hopefully, you know, hopefully you can continue it. But
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: this is, yeah, the NFL show. Hopefully we can continue
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: doing well in the NFL to finish off the season here,
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna add two plays. One of them is one
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: that I already talked about and I was like, I
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: don't think I want to do it, But now I'm like, yeah,
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: I'll do it. Some of the games that I thought
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: I might wind up having a play on, I do not.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: So we're gonna try to We're gonna try to be selective.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Hearing me have with the NFL tomorrow, I mean, I
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: always try to be selective. By the way, that Chargers game,
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you saw that game. I know
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: they were losing fourteen and nothing right out of the gate.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: But Texans did nothing after that, and the Chargers they
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: got absolutely screwed on a on a penalty call that
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: extended Texas like the Texans drive was gonna end and
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: the Chargers were gonna get the ball back and have
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: a chance to win the game. They called illegal contact
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: on the Chargers on a play where the Texans receiver
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: just mowed the defender down. It was one of the
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: worst calls I've ever seen. I quote tweeted the video
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: of it that shit was rigged, dude, just absolutely rigged.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: And of course I'm extra pissed because that eliminated the
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Colts from the playoffs. My Indianapolis Colts, who were once
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: eight and two. They're dead. So wasn't that just great?
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: I'm just pissed, dude. Yeah. The butter Yeah, butter defense, yeah,
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: meaning that everything is good, but their defense, right, it's
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: like a butterface but in football for him. But yeah,
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: the Chargers absolutely should have had a chance to win
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: that game. And I couldn't believe that call. The illegal
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: contact didn't even make sense because I thought illegal contact
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: had to be within the first five yards to and
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: it not only was it not, but the receiver should
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: have been offensive pass interference. It made no sense. It
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: made absolutely zero sense. Six out of seven of your
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: props to you go, hell yeah, Henry, Yeah, he did
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: go over. That was a good call there. He had
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: a monster game, which I wasn't sure if that would happen.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, I liked the Ravens in the game, but
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: you know, I mean it kind of made sense because
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: for some reason, they just didn't use them last week
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: and they were just getting shit on for that not
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: using him down the stretch. But Green Bay's defense is
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: pretty legit, although they were not good tonight. Yeah, let's
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: not talk about six to seven. It's demonic. Man, Let's
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: get into this board here. I don't want to be
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: up too late here. We'll start right out with the
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: top of the board here, Cardinals Bengals. This is a
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: great one. Bengals are off of a five and a
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: half point favorite to a seven and a half point favorite.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: And I always clarify that this opening line that pregame
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: shows here is actually usually the look aheadline, which is
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: which is why I don't bring up the look ahead
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: lines separately now. So basically the look ahead line was
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: when it's actually a separate market. So I think it's
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: stupid that they show that as the opener because it's
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: a totally different market. Like, basically, those are the lines
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: that existed for this game before last week's games were played.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Then once last week's games start, those lines come down
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: and then they put up the new lines in the
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: new market. So but what it does do is so
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: you have to like learn, you know, you have to
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: know how to read it. So basically, this wasn't a
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: move based on like the money coming in on the Bengals.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: What this was was they're two separate markets, so hopefully
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: that makes sense. So this the new market opened probably
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: at seven to seven and a half, and that's just
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: kind of where it stayed. Ninety three percent of the tickets,
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: ninety two percent of the cash on the Bengals side there.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: So the Bengals are insanely public in this game. Obviously
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: I would fade them on the market. Read it's basically
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: say fade them. Uh, you don't really want to be
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: on a side ever that's this public, and I mean
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: one of the Bengals really have to play for. And
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: should you be laying this many points with a defense
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: that's this bad. Probably not. Their defense is awful. I
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: know they murdered Miami last week, but Miami actually I
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: believe outgained them in this game if you look at
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: the stats. So this was not what it looked like
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: on the score board last week. I know it was close.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: My mistake, Cincinnati only outgained them by eighteen yards. It
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: was quinn Ewer's debut and he threw I think he
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: turned it over three or two or three times, so
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: he was very turnover prone in the game. He was
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: moving the football, which you should against an awful defense
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: like the Bengals, but he was turnover prone, So take
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: that for what it's worth. But that game was not
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: the blowout that it looked like on the scoreboard. Cincinnati
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: does finish the season next weekend home against Cleveland, which
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: is still a rivalry game, so for what that's worth,
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: they might not really pay attention to Arizona. Arizona has
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: been horrible, I know, and they keep not covering recently
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: as well, but it's still true that they've lost. Eight
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: of their losses have been by one score and seven
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: of them have been by four or less. So you're
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: asking him in this case to cover a seven and
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: a half. If you're gonna play the game, I think
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: that's the only way that you can play it is
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: take the points with Arizona. So that would be my
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: opinion there. You lost in the Chargers money line. Yeah,
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: that was that was some bullshit there in that one.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: I was I did not love the handicap in that game,
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: Like I just couldn't figure it out as a as
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: a I talked about on the show. Yeah, the under
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: definitely did hit. Yeah, I leaned unduring that game that
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: wound up being an easy win. On that one, I
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: think it landed thirty six, right, So yeah, the total
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: was up to forty one. I mean that was definitely
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: way too high. We have Seahawks Panthers, which this is
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: an interesting game. I mean, these two teams are both
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: atop their divisions right now. They're both surprises that I
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: don't think anybody if anybody told you they predicted the
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Seahawks would win their division, I think they're just an
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: idiot or they're lying to you, because this is just
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: a complete surprise. Panthers, I mean because their division is
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: so bad. I mean I could kind of see that
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: being a prediction from some people that wasn't like totally
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: off base, but I still didn't really see that happening either.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: But these two teams are atop their divisions. They haven't
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: clinched the divisions yet. Now. My first reaction to this
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: is the Seahawks are in a horrible spot because we
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: know what the Seahawks did last week besides screwing me
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: over because I didn't go with the money line on it.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: I went minus one and a half. I should have
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: gone money line. But what were the odds that were
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: gonna win the game by one. I mean, I'm just
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: so mad about that. They should have just lost the game.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Just put us all out of our misery, you know
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: what I mean? The Rams actually dominated the Seahawks in
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: this game. If you look at the stats in the game,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: I know the Seahawks won the game outright, But part
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: of my handicap in this game was that the Seahawks
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: actually outplayed the Rams the first time, even though the
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Rams won. This time, the complete opposite happened, and the
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Rams actually outplayed the Seahawks, and they really shouldn't have
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: lost this game. They were winning by sixteen in the
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: fourth quarter. The Rams outgained the Seahawks five eighty one
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: to four fifteen in the game, and the Seahawks were
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: minus three in turnovers. How do they win this game?
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: I actually have absolutely no idea, So you know, I
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: don't think that we really had any business getting that
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: win with the Seahawks if you played the money line,
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, the Rams dominated the time of possession two
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: basically forty to twenty six essentially, and they had more
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: first down So this game wasn't really what it looked
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: like Seattle's not as good as they looked in that game,
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: and that was a huge win for them. So not
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: only could that be a letdown spot, but they have
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: to travel to the East Coast and guess who they
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: play next week? By the way, Oh yeah, they play
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: San Francisco, who actually has the tiebreaker against the Rams.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: And by the way, if San Francisco wins this week,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: and they won't have played yet when Seattle plays, because
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: San Francisco is playing the Sunday night game. If San
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Francisco wins and Seattle, well there's a lot of different combinations.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: But if both teams win going into next week, san
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Francisco can beat Seattle at home in San Francisco and
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: win the division because San Francisco would sweep Seattle because
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: they beat them in week one in Seattle. So San
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Francisco would actually win the division and win the tiebreaker
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: if that were to have so, and that's who Seattle's
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: playing next week, San Francisco. So they're in a huge
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: divisional sandwich here. So it's like this is the type
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: of game that I you know, like foam at the mouthful,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Like this situation is so bad for Seattle. It's ridiculous.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: And yeah, they have extra time off because they played
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: on Thursday, but that game, you got to think that
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: game took all, like everything out of them. Man, plus
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: the fact that they weren't as good as it looked
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: at all on the scoreboard. They somehow got out of
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: there with the win. Having the extra time off they
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: think will actually hurt them because they're just kind of
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: thinking about it the whole time. Now. The problem I
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: have with this is that Carolina is in a bad
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: spot because Carolina. They just beat Tampa Bay, huge game
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: from them, which put Carolina atop their division, and really
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: the division is gonna come down to next week, which
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: is Carolina against Tampa Bay again. Because I believe that
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: Carolina can clinch this week only if they beat Seattle,
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: which is unlikely because they're a big dog here, and
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay would also have to lose, which I don't
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: think is likely either because Tampa Bay is playing Miami.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: One of those events might happen, though, but Carolina plays
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay again next week, so they are in a
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: buccaneer or sandwich whatever the hell. I don't know what
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: a pirates eat in sandwich form. They have scurvy so
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: I have no idea. But yeah, Caroline, I just can't
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: quite do it, man, because Caroline is in a bad
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: spot as well. So Seattle's just in an atrocious spot though.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: So if I was gonna play this game, I would
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: take the points with the Panthers. Seattle's sitting around a
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: seven and a half or seven point favorite here, but
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: it actually looks like the public sentiment is kind of
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: on the Panthers to some extent. We have fifty eight
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets and seventy five percent of the
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: cash on the Seahawks, so the actual money seems like
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: it is laying it with the Seahawks. I still don't
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: really get it. The total is pretty low as well,
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: at forty two and a half, which, by the way,
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: the total that Cardinals Bengals game is hilariously at fifty three,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: with both defenses being very, very untrustworthy in that game.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: But this game low is total of forty two and
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: a half. I think it kind of makes sense to
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: take the points in that respect as well. If you
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: forced me to give a side, that's what I would do.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: I would take the points. The Seahawks are just again,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: that is a spot where if the Panthers. Had anything
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: other than that win over Champa Bay last week, I
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: would probably be playing the Panthers here. It's just ridiculous.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: But I have to pass the game. So anyway, Yeah,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: those are my thoughts on that game. I'm reading the
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: chat here. And on a second, Garrett, you're a Panthers fan, right,
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: you're Carolina guy. You're gonna take the Panthers. Good luck
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: with that. I still think the Panthers are a mirage.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're really that good. Yes, thank you, sir,
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: I appreciate it. Nancy, what's up? What are you keeping?
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: The TI? Like the rapper t I what are we
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: talking about? A Texas Instruments calculator. What are we talking
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: about here? Yeah? The pirate Booty Sandwich that's what they're in. Yeah.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: I kind of want to be in a Booty Sandwich man,
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: although I'm more of a tit man than an ass man.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: All Right, what's the next game up? Oh? Yeah, Giants Raiders.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: You know, I was considering this game. I like the
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: Giants in this game. The Giants are sitting around a
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: two and a half boy favorite here, fifty tickets, sixty
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: one percent of the cash on the Giants. I know
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: what's at Vegas, but Vegas, I mean, their home advantage
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: is almost nothing. Vegas is a tourist town and the Giants,
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: they do have a big fan base across the country,
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: so I expect there will be some Giant fan representation
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: in the crowd in this one. It's also not a
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: good spot for the Raiders. I know they're at home here,
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: but the Raiders do have a home game to finish
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: the season next But the Raiders are also coming off
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: that big game against Houston where they could have won
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: that game. Man, the Raiders were two touchdown dogs in
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: that game against a physical Houston defense, and they almost
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: won the game. They were losing by two, I mean
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: that was the final, but there were also like five
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: minutes left in the game when they were down two.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: They actually had chances to potentially win that game. Now
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: they're coming off of that and they're playing an out
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: of conference game. And yeah, by the way, the Raiders
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: finished the season at home against the Kansas City Chiefs.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: And I know the Chiefs are not gonna make the
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: playoffs this year or whatever, but you gotta think after
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: years and years of getting their asses beaten by the
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: Chiefs whatever. I know there have been some close games there,
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: but you gotta think the Raiders they're gonna show up
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: for that game and try to beat the Chiefs because
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: it's been so long, I think she has been able
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: to do it, and the Chiefs have been such a
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: dominant presence in this division. That's a big game. So
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: I think this is a bad spot. I think it's
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: basically a sandwich spot. The Giants. I know they're zero
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: to eight on the road. Although the Raiders are pathetic
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: at home to one and six, it's not like that's
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: that much better the Giants. I don't know what that
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: was last week. Man, it was maybe the worst offensive
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: performance that you'll ever see. I don't know how that happened.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: Jackson Dart did nothing. The Minnesota defense was good. JJ
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: McCarthy went down in the game. We had the Giants
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: on this show, and the Giants did have a defensive
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: touchdown in the game that made us think maybe we're
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: gonna get that one. They actually pushed I believe. I
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: think I gave it out at three. I think, yeah,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: I did find a three on that one. But still
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: with JJ McCarthy going down in the game, I don't
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: know how the Giants didn't pull it, you know, pull
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: it out somehow in that game. I have no idea
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: what happened, but it might be good for the Giants
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: to just say fuck it and just go on the
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: road and play maybe the worst team in the NFL
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: and the Raiders here. So there's a reason why the
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: Giants are favored on the road. When would the Giants
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: ever be favored on the road. And yeah, it might
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: be a spot where you might make the argument the
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: Giants shouldn't be favored against anybody on the road. Maybe,
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: but it's really it's I mean, it's a pick the
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: winner price for the most part. It's below a field
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: goal here. If you play it, I think you got
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: to play the Giants if you play it, that would
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: be my opinion. In that one, lay the two and
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: a half, play the money line whatever, something like that.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: In that game, all right, That one was actually one
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: of the ones that when I first thought about the game, like,
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: it was one of the ones that jumped out at
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: me more than I kind of liked the Giants in
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: that one. This Bowl game that's on right now is crazy,
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: by the way, it's tied again, it's just been back
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: and forth, Houston up seven, LSU tie the game over
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: and over and over again. Houston looks like they're about
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: to retake the lead again late. This is crazy, man. Anyway,
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: I don't really have much of a stake in this.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: I just have my Bowl pick coms here where because
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: ESPN gave us LSU plus three and a half. I
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: had to do it because the Lion was like one
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: when the game went off. But I think in the uh,
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: in the straight ups, I just took Houston. But uh, yeah, whatever,
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: I don't really care that much about it. Don't really
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: have any money on the line really significantly in any
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: of that stuff. No splash pools there, all right, Steelers, Browns.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna skip because I am actually gonna make the
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: play that I was talking about. I'm gonna give it
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: out as a play Saints Titans, which, by the way,
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: putting Titans right here below the Saints makes it look
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: like it says Taints. It's the Taints against the SITANSU. Yeah,
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: this is a really great game. By the way, the
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: Saints are a road favorite, and again, do the Saints
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: deserve to be a road favorite against anybody? I don't know.
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, the Titans are definitely really bad. They're one
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: of the worst teams with the Saints because they've won
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: like three games in a row and nowt there all
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: of a sudden getting a little bit of respect. I
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: don't know. Saints are down from two to one and
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: a half here, sixty four percent of tickets on them,
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: one percent of the cash. So the Saints are actually
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: a public road favorite, which the market reid would leave
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: me to wanting to grab the Titans in this one
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: if I was gonna play, which I'm not. I don't
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: want to do anything with this disaster of a game,
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: but it is possible in New Orleans has some sort
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: of like delayed letdown spot here, because I thought they
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: were gonna be in a letdown spot last week after
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: they had beaten Tampa Bay and Carolina pulled off two
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: straight divisional upsets, and they had the Jets that the
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: Jets just haven't been able to do anything, man, and
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: the Saints were able to hold them to six points
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: and win the game. Now they're going out on the road,
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: I don't know, road out of conference game. It's one
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: of the games that means the least under schedule would
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: have me somewhat leading to the Titans. Ath The Titans
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: are awful at home. They're one and seven, but that
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: one win did just come last week, so they finally
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: kind of got that monkey off their back. They finally
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: got a home win. This is their final home game.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: I think cam Ward is out there basically saying that
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: they want to show up and play well to give
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: the fans something in this last home game here. But
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: you could make the argument that the Titans are in
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: a let down spot because they just beat the Chiefs.
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: And I know it was the Chiefs with a third
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: string quarterback and it was the Chiefs without Rashie Rice,
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: but still it is the Kansas City chief So you
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: could maybe make the argument that the Titans are in
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot here. They do have Jacksonville up next,
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: which is a divisional game where they might be able
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: to play spoiler, But if I was gonna play it,
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: I probably would have to lead to the Titans based
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: on the market read there. But I don't want to
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: touch that game at all with the longest poll in
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: the universe, which is my dick obviously, dirty sock. What's
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: up man? Thanks for hanging out all right? Next game?
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: Up is Buccaneers Dolphins. Buccaneers are up to a five
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: and a half way favorite. They are very public, eighty
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: two percent of the tickets of the cash on them
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: right now. Totals is not very high forty four and
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: a half by the way, Saints Titans nine and have
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: We're seen some real ugly totals this week in some
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: of these games. This game the Buccaneers, I mean, it's
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: all gonna pretty much come down to next week. I
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: mean I believe, yes, if Tampa does lose this game, yes,
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: they will be eliminated, I believe. Or actually maybe they
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: have to lose and Carolina has to win. Is that right?
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: Wait a minute, if Tampa lows, there's seven to nine,
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: but Carolina could fall to eight and eight if they lose. Yes,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: so Tampa Bay would still be able to, I believe,
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: beat Carolina next week if that was the case, and
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: still win the division. But and that depends on the
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: tiebreakers though, because Carolina beat them the first time. So yeah,
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, Tampa, They're they're going to want to win
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: this game for sure, because if they don't, then they're
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: gonna need a lot of help. But they are coming
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: up that big game against Carolina or yes, they lost
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: the game, you could argue they're gonna be in a
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: bounced back spot. I mean, you're gonna get an effort
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: out of Tampa Bay. You would have to imagine even
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: though they're in any panther sandwich here, they just cannot
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: afford to lose again because Carolina is now in the
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: driver's seat. Miami might show up for this game, though. Man,
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: it's you know, a little bit of a Florida rivalry here.
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: Miami didn't look good last week. It's Miami's final home game,
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: and you gotta think the team's not gonna hang quin
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: you ors out to dry, you know what I mean.
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: Like they're not gonna leave the rookie QB in his
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: second game. They're not gonna not show up for him,
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. Like having that rookie QB
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: in there might be a reason that the team will
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: show up and play. And he wasn't actually that bad
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: last week. I know he got an easy task against
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: a bad defense. He made some mistakes, for sure, but
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: those things can be cleaned up. You know, you learn,
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: you get a little bit better. I don't think he's
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: that good, but I don't think he's gonna be terrible here,
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: and timpa Bay's defense is really not excellent either, So
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: if I was gonna play the game, I would have
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: to fade the public again and look towards taking the
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: points of The Dolphins have a tough spot for the Buccaneers,
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: and man, the Buccaneers have been falling apart too, although
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: that's not really a good, you know, handicapping reason, because
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: right now they probably look worse than they actually are.
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: But I've never been a fan of Baker Mayfield. Really
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: always thought he was a head case, but I never
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: thought he was a great quarterback. So that the MVP
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: talk that was going on earlier this year, I was like, yeah,
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: now I don't think so this division is ass whatever.
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: I think I would take the points with the Dolphins
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: in that one if I was gonna play it. Nancy,
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: Oh the pisser bathroom demons. Yeah, so my bathroom that's
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: like right over there, one of the next rooms over
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: upstairs here. Sometimes when I pissing it, it sounds like
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: somebody's pissing in my shower and then in my other
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: bathroom downstairs. Sometimes I feel something like breathing on my
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: neck when I'm pissing downstairs. I don't know, two different bathrooms.
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know what the deal is with that. Yeah,
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: steam spirits whatever. Oh yeah, Kramer, Now I'm driving the bus. Yeah,
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: that's one of the epic Kramer scenes. I think he
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: probably ad libbed that thing, right, Yeah, talking about how
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: yeah he saved the bus because what the bus driver
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: like had a heart attack or something, couldn't drive anymore,
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: and then he had to start driving. Now I'm driving
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: the bus. Yeah, some great great Seinfeld scenes there, man,
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: Almost every Seinfeld episode is actually really good. All right,
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: next game up as Jaguars Colts, my Indianapolis Colts. The
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: Jags are a public road favorite. Eighty three percent of
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: tickets on them and seventy nine percent of the cash.
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: They're down from six and a half to five and
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: a half here maybe six. I mean, I think, just
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: on principle, you kind of gotta take the points with
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: the Colts if you're gonna play this game. And I
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: considered playing it because the Jaguars, really they're coming off
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: what I think is kind of their legitimizer game, because
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: I think people just weren't really thinking the Jags were
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: legit even though they beat Houston early in the season,
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: nobody really cared about that. At the time they beat
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: San Francisco on the road, nobody cared about that either
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: San Francisco is dealing with some injuries and whatever. They
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: beat Kansas City, that was a big one, and then
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: they did have a letdown after that against Seattle, but
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: then they were just kind of rolling along. They did
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: crush the Chargers, so they do some pretty good wins
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: in here. It's just it feels to me like nobody
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: was really paying attention. Because after that they beat Arizona Tennessee,
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: Indy in the game that Daniel Jones got hurt, and
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: then the Jets and just nobody really cared. Then all
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: of a sudden, Jacksonville goes into Mile High and puts
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: up thirty four points against basically an elite Denver defense.
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: Huge win for Jacksonville last week. Now, second straight road
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: game and it's against Indy, who they did already beat
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: at home. And I talked about that at the time.
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: Indy has not won in Jacksonville in like over what
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: was it over two decades? Is that what it was?
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: Or I forget exactly maybe a decade. I forget what
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: it was, But over a decade. I think they had
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: n't won there in at least ten years. I think ridiculous.
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: So Jacksonville got that win again, but again Daniel Jones
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: went down in the game. Now I think Indy might
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: be out for revenge, if you really want to call
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: it that, because Indy, that game was the game that
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: derailed Indie season. They lost their quarterback. They could never
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: get on track after that. They haven't won since then,
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: They never win at Jacksonville. This is Indy's chance to
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: do something here and maybe spoil it for Jacksonville. So
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: you know, I talk about this when a team is dead,
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: which Indy is now dead. And I'll talk about that
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: in a minute, which is kind of the reason why
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: I don't really want to do this. One of the
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: reasons they will get up for a game is to
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: play divisional spoiler and that is what they can do here.
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: And it's also their final home game. And you know,
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: Philip Rivers, man, I mean, he's at least motivating people
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: out there. I think he's he's really really getting into
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: the game. Man. You can see the footage. I know
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: they've lost both games with them. They haven't exactly played
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: bad in those games against Seattle in San Francisco, two
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: pretty good teams. Philip Rivers is getting everybody hyped up. Man,
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: he looks hyped, he looks excited to be there. This
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: is the final home game. They got the shot to
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: try to beat Jacksonville. Now I worry a little bit
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: because Indy did just get eliminated officially because Houston won today.
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: So Indy no longer has a chance to win the division,
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: not that they really thought that they did anyway, but
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: they do have Houston next week, so maybe they did
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: feel like maybe they did have some shot, which I
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: did talk about this morning. So I do worry that
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: maybe it's kind of a dream crusher scenario where maybe
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: Indy is just, you know, slightly defeated because they got eliminated.
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: But again I will mention once again that eliminated teams
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: one of the game types of games they will show
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: up for is divisional spoiler, and that's what they can do.
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: If they beat Jacksonville. Jacksonville would I believe Jacksonville would
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: drop behind Houston. I don't know who as the tiebreaker
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: right now because they're one to one head to head,
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: but they do have a chance to maybe knock Jacksonville
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: out of first place in the division. I don't know
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: if they necessarily want to put Houston in the driver's
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: seat there, but whatever, I mean, it's a game that
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: I think they will get up for, especially because Jacksonville
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: was the team that derailed their entire season. You know,
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: that was the game that did it. So I think
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: Indy is going to show up for that game. If
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: I were to guess, so, I would take the points
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: with the Colts in that game if I was going
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: to play it. We have Patriots Jets. Patriots are going
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: to be a nine point favorite. Oh and by the way,
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: I should mention the Colts were like a one point
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: road favorite at Jacksonville and now Jacksonville is like a
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: six point road favorite at the Colts. Of course, it's
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: because you know, there's the drop off between Daniel Jones
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: and Philip Rivers. But I think that's an over adjustment too.
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's that much of a drop off
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: to Philip Rivers. You know, I think a more appropriate
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: line probably, I would say, you know, somewhere three to
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: four range, I think would be more appropriate for the Jags. There.
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: All right, Patriots, we're gonna be a nine point favorite
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: against the Jets, but now entirely because the Patriots looked
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: good again in that ridiculous comeback against the Ravens, or
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: they probably should have lost that game because the Jets
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: look so bad against New Orleans. Now we're looking at
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: the line of thirteen and a half, which, by the way,
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: the Patriots when they played the Jets at home not
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: that long ago, the Patriots were only a thirteen point favorite,
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: So should they really be laying more than that on
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: the road now? And the other difference is that the
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: Jets have Brady Cook at quarterback now a rookie, so
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: there is some drop off there. But still this line
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: pretty clearly is too high. Am I jumping out of
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: my seat to go grab the Jets plus the points? No?
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: I'm not. But if you forced me to give you
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: a side in this game, that's where the line value is.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: The Jets plus the points would be the way that
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: I would have to tell you to lean in that game.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: It looks like LSU just turn the ball over on
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: downs Houston up three. New England is ridiculously public. Nine
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, ninety percent of the cash. I mean,
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: there's still a team that hasn't beaten that many good
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: teams this year. Man, So we'll see what happens when
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: they get to the playoffs. You know, I don't expect
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: them to get that far because they're not that experience.
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: They had a really weak schedule this year. I know
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: the Jets are a horrible opponent, I get it, but
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: the total is also pretty low at forty three. So
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: do you really want to lay thirteen and a half
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: on the road in a game where the totals in
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: the low forties? Again, I don't really think so New England.
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: They don't have much left though, So New England does
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: play Miami next. I believe if New England wins this game,
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: I believe they clinched the division if I'm not mistaken.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: So they're going to clinch it if they win one
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: of the next two games I believe, which they will.
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: But they don't even need to cover to do that.
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: And New England did just clinch a playoffs by the
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: way with their win over the Ravens. And for a
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: New England team that hasn't been to the playoffs, I
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: believe since the Tom Brady era, that's a big deal
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: that New England's going back to the playoffs. Man, so
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: that could put this put them in a letdown spot here.
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: And again they did it by beating the Bills and
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: then beating the Ravens on the road. Or they excuse me,
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: they lost the Bills. What am I saying? They lost
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: a heartbreaker to the Bills two weeks ago, huge game,
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: then they beat the Ravens, excuse me, and they had
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: to make a huge comeback on the road in primetime
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: against the Ravens down eleven late in the game. So
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: coming off all that and clinching the you know, clinching
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: a playoff spot after not having been in the playoffs
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: for so long, I think it does put them in
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot there. So if you play the game,
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: I think you have to take the points with the Jets.
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: I don't love it at all, though. I'm going out
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: of chronological orders of my apologies there because the Giants
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: and Raiders game got moved around to one of the
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: four PM games. There's only one other four PM game.
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: It's the game everybody's gonna watch, which is Eagles Bills,
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: sixty four percent tickets, seventy percent of the cash on Buffalo.
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: They were gonna be a three point favorite based on
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: last week's the look aheads. Now they're only one and
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: a half, And is that just because the Bills look
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: bad against the Browns and the Eagles? What did they do?
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: They won again? Oh yeah, the Eagles won against Washington.
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, I think it might be a
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: little bit of an over adjustment. I know. I heard
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: my man Marco DiAngelo talk about this game and he
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: thinks it's a trap line, like almost like they're begging
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: you to play the Bills, because now the situation here
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: is that the Eagles just clinched their division, so they
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: really can't improve their playoff positioning at this point. They
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: won their division and they're almost essentially locked into the
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: three because I don't think they're gonna be able to
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: overtake the winner of the NFC North or the winner
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: of the NFC West, So the Eagles are almost locked
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: into the three seed there. They can't fall behind the
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: winner of the NFC South obviously either, so they don't
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: really have a whole lot to play for, and the
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: Bills could technically still win the AFC East, although it's unlikely.
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, the Bills when it gets down
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: to it, and you have a team. The Bills are
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: already going to be in the playoffs. I think they've
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: already clinched a playoff spot, but I believe they have.
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: Maybe I'm wrong about that, but again, when really what
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: they're playing for is seeding, the motivation is not really
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: completely there. But I still think the motivation for the
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: Eagles is just almost absolutely zero. So that's what I
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: worry about. Like Marco was saying that, it looks like
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: they're begging you to play the Bills here because everybody
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: kind of knows, all well, the Bills still have a
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: shot to win the division. The Eagles don't really have
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: anything left to play for it. But I don't know
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: that the public even thinks about stuff that way. And
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: to me, the market read right now looks like the
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: public is somewhat on the Bills, but some of the
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: actual money is also coming in on the Bills. And
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: if you look at what happened last week Philadelphia, Yeah,
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: they have extra time off because they played. When did
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: they play? They played on Friday. I think it's I
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: get Saturday. I get all mixed up now and when
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: these games are because we have the Saturday games now,
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: there's some I think Friday games in the mix at
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: some points. I think they played on Saturday so they
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: have extra time off. But they looked pretty good and
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: beat in Washington. But Washington they were down to a
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: third string quarterback man Josh Johnson had to come in
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: cold in that game because Mariota got hurt. So you know,
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's not that much to take away from
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: that game. It looks like a decent win. Now it's
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: a road out of conference game. I don't really see
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: it being a huge game for Philadelphia. They finished the
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: season at home against Washington, which is also not a
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: game that means a whole lot really, So I don't know.
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, you could see maybe Philadelphia rest some guys
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: next week potentially, but I just don't really see it. Man.
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: For Buffalo, Buffalo didn't play well last week against Cleveland,
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: so I think you're getting a little bit of line
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: value maybe because of that. And it was a bad spot.
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: Remember I talked about it. Buffalo had that huge win
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: against New England the prior weekend, they had this big
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: game against Philly on deck, so and Buffalo has been
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: really good at home too, So I don't know. I
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: kind of disagree with Marco on this one. I would
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: slightly lean towards Buffalo in this one, but I don't
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: want to play it. Buffalo, by the way, is yeah,
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: like I said, six and one at home, the only
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: loss was that three point loss to the Patriots. Buffalo,
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: they had won a ton of games in a row
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: at home. I'm pretty sure Philadelphia is only five and
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: three on the road now. The other the one thing
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: that does point towards Philadelphia here though, Philadelphia is the
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: better defense technically getting points, and you know, I do
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: like to lean that way when you have the better
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: defense as an underdog, I kind of like to lean
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: that way, and that is Philadelphia hero though it's a
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: slight underdog, but I like defense in general. Yes, Philadelphia
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: has the better defense, Buffalo has the better offense here,
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: So I do think probably side and total correlated here.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: The total is down to forty four, so it's not
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: a high total. But I think if the Bills are
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: going to be winning the game, I think the game
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: is gonna be somewhat higher scoring, Whereas if the Eagles
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: are in position to win the game, it's probably gonna
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: be a little bit lower scoring. So those are my
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: thoughts on that game. Then I am going to give
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: out a play in the night game, like I said,
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: Sunday night, and then Monday night I do not have
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: a play, but I will talk about it. I apologize
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: to keep looking over just because I want to see
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: wins this kinder what is it? The what is it
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: the Texas Bowl? I forget what it even is? Whatever bowl?
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: This is Monday Night is Rams Falcons. The Rams are
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: an eight point favorite. Eighty three percent of tickets on
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: them all though, ninety two percent of the cash. So
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: the Rams look like they're public but some professional money
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: coming in on them. Two total of fifty fairly high.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: But in this game, I mean I would probably still
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: lean towards fading the public here though. The Rams. The
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: one thing they do of going for them is that
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: they they were better than they looked in that game
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: against Seattle. They should have won that game against Seattle.
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: They actually, as I pointed out when we dove into
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: the box score, the Rams completely dominated the box score
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: in that game. Now, what's difficult for the Rams is
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: that was a huge game. So they're coming up of that.
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: I know they have extra time off because that was
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: a Thursday game, but still they're having to travel to
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: the Eastern time zone and it's gonna be their fourth
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: road game in five weeks, which is fairly difficult to do,
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: so a lot of travel for the Rams. And then
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: they do finish the season at home against Arizona. Now
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: the Rams do still have something to play for because
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: they could still potentially win the division here somewhat unlikely
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: at this point, but they still have the chance to
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: do it. So you know, they're not gonna totally overlook
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: the game. But what I always say, you know, I've
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: said numerous times on this show. I think I've said it.
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: For a team like Atlanta that's going nowhere, one of
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: the games they're gonna get up for is a primetime game,
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: and it's gonna be a primetime game where they can
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: play spoiler, not against a divisional opponent, but they get
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: to play one of the top teams in the NFC
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: in the Rams on a Monday night game. I think
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: Atlanta will show up for this one, and they've actually
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: looked fairly good in their last two games, beating Tampa
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: Bay in Arizona. Kirk Cousins kind of getting into his
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: groove a little bit again, which is you know, I
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: like seeing it because I like Kirk Cousins as a dude.
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: Got to see him in both seasons of on Netflix
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: Quarterback there, which I was talking to my family members
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: about that too. My dad saide. We got some good
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: Christian people on my dad's side of the family there,
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: and I was talking to some of them. They like
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: the Netflix Quarterback and immediately I was like, yeah, Kirk
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: Cousins was my favorite out of them, and they're like
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: us too, Yeah, we love Kirk Cousins. I'm like, that's right, man.
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean for Kirk cousins sake, hopefully it happens. Yeah,
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: So I would lean to taking the points of the
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: falcons and that one. We're gonna talk about it again
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: on Monday night and see if the market switches up. Tyson,
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: what's up man, Thanks for hanging out. Did I get
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: the sweep San Jose up by three with two minutes left?
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: All right? Hell yeah, they were up two to nothing
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: early and then I saw it was two to one.
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: But yeah, hopefully we'll get it done and get the sweep.
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: I know I got lucky with the bowl game, but
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: these bowl games are chaos, man, and sometimes you gotta
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: you gotta you know, you gotta get some luck sometimes
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: Bo Nicks, he's not in he's he hasn't been in
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: that the The three quarterbacks in the first season were Mahomes, Cousins,
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: and Mariota, and then the second season was Cousins again
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: and uh, Golf I kind of liked goff in it.
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: And then, uh, who was the third? Why don't I remember?
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: And then they did have a receiver season as well,
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: with five different receivers. Why I might not remember who's
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: the third quarterback in the second season? Why don't I
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: remember that? Yeah, I don't know why I can't remember. Uh,
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: it's ridiculous, Like, how could that slip my mind? It was?
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: I think it was a somewhat well known quarterback. I
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: mean well, I mean everybody knows all the quarterbacks pretty much.
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: Who was it? Why is it? Like? Yeah, why is
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: it escaping my mind? I almost wanted to say it
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: was Dak, but that's not right because I'm thinking of
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: the Hard Knock season that's going on right now. The
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: d season. Hard Knocks is the Uh. I still have
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: to watch this past weeks by the way for that,
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: But I always watch Hard Knocks. It's entertaining enough. They're
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: doing the NFC East this year, though, which is just awful. No, No,
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: it was not Kaepernick, although Dave Chappelle was wearing a
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: Kaepernick camo jacket in his new special, which I thought
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: was kind of stupid. But the special was all right.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: It was kind of funny. He's definitely getting some of
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: the politics wrong and thinking about some things in the
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: wrong way. It was a decent special, though. The ending
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: was quite good. Cousins was definitely in bold. I already
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: mentioned Cousins UNLV. What's up man? The hanging out? No,
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: the second season was Cousin's golf. And then I don't
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: know why. I forget who the third quarterback was in
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: the second season. It was not my homes again, it
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: was somebody was. I don't believe it was somebody wasn't
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: in the first season. I can't remember what. Oh Dave Chappelle,
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: Uh oh is he gay for kaeperni I have no idea.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: I don't even know why he was wearing it. To
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: be honest, I mean Chappelle he's not really I mean,
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: he's not like a woke dude really. I mean he
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: makes fun of a lot of that stuff in his material,
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: so I have no idea. And he did do some
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: of that again in that in that special. Yeah it's
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: oh it was Joe Burrow. How could I forget? Yeah
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: it was Joe Burrow, dude, speaking of gay Yeah he
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: might be. Joe Burrow has his own like fashion consultant.
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: If you watch on Netflix season two of Quarterback, Yeah
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: it's Joe Barrow. He's got a fashion and consultant. Man.
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: He never has a chick with him. So yeah, I
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: don't know. You can you can you know you can
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: make some some guesses there, Thank you, sir. You Parlay,
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: I was right about the Islanders. Did I like the Avs?
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: I don't remember. I'm not sure that I did. I
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: don't think I did like did I I don't remember.
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: I don't think I liked the Avs. I think I
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: liked Vegas in that one, if that was who they
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: were playing. So no, I think I leaned against the Avs. Yeah.
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: I liked the Knights in that one as the dog
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: slightly like plus like I thought we were gonna get
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: like a decent puck line on that too. But again
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: I recommend against Parlays because one miss takes the whole
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: thing down in the books want you to play parlays
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: because they don't give you good enough odds on them,
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: So I just play. I play everything straight. You played
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: that as a straight, Yeah, I mean, if I like
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: a team on the puck line, that is not me
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: telling you that you should play the other team on
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: the money line, because it probably means that my opinion
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: is pretty much against. It looks like LSU is moving
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: the football here. I don't know what's going on here,
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: unless that was just some replay from before. All right,
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: let's get to the best bets. We're at the best
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: bets or I don't want this show to be that long.
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: We got two best bets here. One of them I
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: didn't think I was gonna do it, but I am.
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: And then the other one is one of the ones
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: that I thought might make my card, even though I
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: don't know if we're getting a ton of line value
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: on it. The first one up, we're gonna play the
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns, which you can still get at a decent
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: price because the Ravens won. So the Steelers still are
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: gonna be a favorite here because they have something to
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: play for. Now you might be able to get four. Potentially,
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's better than three and a half, but
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: either way, three is the more key number. Could have
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: gotten four to four and a half. Really, I don't
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: think it was ever four and a half though, except
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: for the look ahead, which is interesting. The lines a
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: little bit less than what the look I had was.
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: But first of all, look at the total in this game,
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: thirty four and a half. But I do think the
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: total is in overreaction. That's because it's gonna be raining.
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be really bad weather in this game, so
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: that is something to watch out for. But I do
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: think the totals in overreaction to like rain causes overreactions.
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: Rain could cause the deepfense to kind of slip up
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: to some extent, so you see somewhat more scoring than
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: you would think with the rain. So I do think
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: the total is an overreaction. Seventy nine tickets seventy eight
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash in the over for what it's worth,
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: but either way, it's still a really low total, and
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: in a game like this, you do want to look
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: towards taking the points with a low total. The Steelers
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: have seventy seven percent of tickets, only seventy two percent
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: of the cash and I do not like the spot
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: that the Steelers are in. Obviously, they are a team
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: that controls their own destiny. And I already said, you know,
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: you don't want to play on teams that are in
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: that type of situation really, because they're usually overvalued in
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: the market. You're having a lay points on the road
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: here with them. They're coming off a big road win
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: against Detroit. Now they're playing a third road game in
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: four weeks that I don't think is great either. They
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: played a lot of road games where you say that
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: upset over Detroit ridiculous, even though they did actually outgain
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: Detroit in the game. Now they're going to Cleveland and
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: up next is the game that really matters man Pittsburgh.
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: They got to be Baltimore next week. That's really what
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: it comes down to. Because even if Pittsburgh loses this
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: game and they drop to nine and seven, they got
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: to be Baltimore. So if Pittsburgh loses, they got to
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: be Baltimore next week. Yes, if Pittsburgh wins this game,
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: they will clinch. Yes, But that's what I don't like
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: about the spot, because it's one of those spots where
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: you win and you're in and I think that puts
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: like all the pressure on you, and that team is
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: always almost always over value in the market because everybody
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: knows if they win, they're in and then they don't
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: have to worry about the Baltimore game. But I think
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: they are going to be worried about the Baltimore game
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: and that is looming up ahead. So I think it's
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: a bad spot man for Pitts and for Cleveland. Yeah.
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: I know Shitarah Sanders, he's ass whatever, but Pittsburgh they're
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: really not as good as what they've looked like this season. Man.
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: I mean there I call it Mike Tomlining where they're
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: just overperforming yet again. Insane that Mike Tomlin is yet
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: again going to have a non losing season. He has
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: never had a season where the Steelers have gone below
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: five hundred, which is crazy. And again he's got it
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: again already this year because the worst they can do
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: is nine to eight. Now for Cleveland, this is gonna
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: be like they're Super Bowl. Man. I know I had
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: mentioned I didn't love it just because Cleveland was coming
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: up that close call against Buffalo where they almost be Buffalo.
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: But then I thought about it more and it's like,
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: do you really think they're not gonna show up for
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: their final home game in a game where they have
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: a chance to potentially spoil Pittsburgh season. At least they
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: could not allow Pittsburgh to win the division on their watch,
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. I think Cleveland's gonna show
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: up for this. You're getting the better defense getting points,
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: which is Cleveland at home. So I do like that
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: as well. Cleveland is the better defense. I know their
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: offense is Badge or Sanders, He's not the guy I know.
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: But we're gonna rely on the defense here and what's
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: gonna be probably kind of a muddy, ugly game here.
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: Not only that, but if you didn't know, Pittsburgh has
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: not won in Cleveland since multiple years ago. I believe
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: the last time they won in Cleveland was a couple
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: of years ago. But not only that, but Cleveland has
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: won five of the last six matchups at home against Pittsburgh.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: One of them actually was a playoff game, which I
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: believe was Baker Mayfield on Cleveland winning the game. But
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: four of the last five regular season matchups in Cleveland
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: against Pittsburgh, Cleveland has won them outright, including last year,
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: and by the way, that was one of my plays
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: last year. I gave out Cleveland against Pittsburgh at home
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: last year and we got the win on that one.
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: It was a primetime game. It was an ugly game
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: in the snow. I think it was Jameis Winston. Uh
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: he wait, was he on? Yeah? He was? He was
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: on Cleveland right, yeah, he was bawling out. I know,
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: Winston's a lot better than Shouldur Sanders, I know, but
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: this just feels really similar to that game. Man, even
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: though that game was a primetime game. Cleveland, they're gonna
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: treat Pittsburgh at home like their Super Bowl, man, I mean,
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: that's just what they do. So those are my feelings
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: on that. I think Pittsburgh's overvalued coming into this one.
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: We'll do it. We'll take Cleveland plus the points. Also,
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: Cleveland did lose at Pittsburgh earlier this year and that
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: was it. I gave it a play on that one
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: on Cleveland. I probably shouldn't have, just Cleveland was coming
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: back from London. They chose to not take the bye,
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: and historically teams that chose not to take the bye
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: actually did pretty well, but this year it did not
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: work out at all. I think every single one of
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: those teams failed to cover, so it was bad. But yeah, Cleveland,
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: I mean they'll be able to probably make adjustments, whereas
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: if you're Pittsburgh, you won that games Like, what are
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: you really have to adjust? Like? You won the game
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: easily against Cleveland, So Pittsburgh does not have any adjustments
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: to really make off of this game. And they wanted
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: it wasn't really misleading or anything. Pittsburgh did outgain them
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: by about one hundred yards or whatever. But that's that play. Yeah,
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: we will be on Cleveland, and then I have one
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: more in the night game here, Yes, sir, how many
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: plays I have in total? It's two? And oh you
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: mean including the other sports. I have no idea. I
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: haven't looked at any of the other there's a lot
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: of college Basketballtimorrew, I haven't looked at any of it yet.
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: I have no clue. All right, and then the final one,
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: I found a good number on this. We're gonna lay
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: the points to the forty nine ers. Of course, I'm
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: going against the Bears. Got to just do it here. Man.
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: Now you're gonna see mostly three and a half's out there,
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: but they are reduced juice. And if you have a
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: lot of books at your disposal like I do. Like
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: I found this at Bally. It was minus three was
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: full disclosure. It was like minus one thirteen, but it
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: was pretty close to minus one ten, so whatever. I
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: would still probably lay the three and a half reduced
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: juice though, although I know the hook is a little
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: bit meaningful because three is key obviously, But it's a
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: high total in this game, so in the low fifties,
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: so I kind of expect there to be scoring here
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: up to fifty two and a half money coming in
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: in the over, seventy six percent of tickets eighty four
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over. We do have
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: a Niners defense that has a lot of injuries going
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: on there, and then the Bears, I mean, their defense
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: just isn't very good. They're like a bottom several defense.
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm not really going to disagree that this
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: is going to be a high scoring game. And yes,
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: I know Chicago has extra rest compared to the forty nine.
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: Ers are on a short week, They're coming off a
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: Monday night. I understand that both teams are traveling similarly though,
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: and yes, Chicago did play on Saturday, so they have
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: extra rest, But come on, man, Chicago, I go beat
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: green Bay, huge win, and it was a game they
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: had no business winning. Green Bay lost Jordan Love in
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: the game, then they lost to Mileage Willis in the game,
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: and I'm pretty sure it was a third string quarterback
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: who was in there who fumbled the ball in overtime,
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: and they had a backup center in on that play too,
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: So the center quarterback combination fumbled the ball in Chicago
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: territory in overtime, which basically blew the game. Green Bay
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: was winning the game sixteen to six with like three
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: minutes left in regulation. I believe the Bears didn't even
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: have a touchdown yet in the game at that point,
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: and then the Bears scored. They recovered an on site kick,
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: which was the only way they were even gonna stay
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: in the game at all, and then they scored again
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: in green Bay's offense. Just you know, they couldn't do anything.
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: They if they had made like one first down, they
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: might have been able to put the game away, and
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: they couldn't do that. So it was a bullshit win
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: for Chicago. I believe green Bay outgained them in this game,
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: if I'm not mistaken. They were at least later no
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: they did not. Actually, Chicago did slightly outgain them. Green
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: Bay did dominate time of possession by more than twelve minutes, though,
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: and they had more first downs and they led basically
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: the whole way. So yeah, I mean, I think it's
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: a misleading win for Chicago, but that was a huge
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: win for Chicago. Now they got to go to the
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: Pacific Coast. And I talk about this, when these more
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: easterly teams have to go to the West Coast prime time,
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: it's kind of bad for their biological clock because they're
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: playing like really late. They're playing at you know, eleven PM,
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: you know their time whatever, So that's when the game ends,
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, so they can kind of get fatigued towards
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: the end of the day. And yeah, Chicago does have
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: a huge revenge game against Detroit to finish the season.
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: It's a big divisional game, man, because Detroit embarrassed them
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: the first time they played them this year. And it's
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: the whole Ben Johnson thing, you know what I mean,
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: where he was Detroit's OC. Now he's the head coach
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: of the Bears. The Bears do you have the upper
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: hand now, So I think Detroit's gonna come into that
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: game angry even though they're eliminated, but still that might
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: be a bigger game for Chicago than San Francisco. Is man.
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: And now, the other reason why I want to face
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: Chicago here is what just happened a little while ago.
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: We won on the Ravens. Yeah, but in in that
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: win by the Ravens, green Bay was knocked out of
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: divisional contention. So green Bay had already clinched a playoff spot,
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: but now Chicago clinched the division because green Bay lost
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: to Night. So now Chicago basically they can't even move
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: like they're like locked into the one of the They're
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: locked into a first round home game in the playoffs.
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: So I mean, I think there's an outside chance maybe
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: at a one seed, but they're not gonna get I
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna get it. So and I tell
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: you that seeding is not really enough to motivate a team,
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: like teams just don't really like think about that, Like
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: getting into the playoffs at all is a motivator, yes,
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: but seeding is not real. So I think the fact
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: that they clinched the division tonight, I think they're gonna
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: be in a huge letdown spot. I think all week.
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: They've been thinking about that win over Green Bay huge wins,
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: so I think the extra time off doesn't help them.
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: I think it actually hurts them. Meanwhile, San Francisco, yeah,
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: they looked pretty good. They scored it on the points
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: on Monday night. Everybody saw it. But I don't think
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: people are really gonna put that much weight into them
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: clobbering Indianapolis. I know, Philip Rivers fun story, but people,
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: they're not gonna put much stock into the forty nine
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: ers beating the Colts. It's just what it is. Yes,
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: I know the forty nine ers have a huge game
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: up next against Seattle. I get that, But the forty
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: nine ers for that game to mean something, I think
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: they also need to win this game. So I know
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: there's need there in your laying points, and I don't
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: love doing that sometimes, and I think the spot is
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: way worse for Chicago. So that is what we're gonna
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: go with here. Again, Chicago doesn't really have much need
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: at all here And sometimes yeah you'll argue that, well,
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: that means they're gonna play looser. But also I just
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: I just think the are just still way away overrated
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: here man, and the public you know there's slightly leaning
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: towards the forty nine er side. Seventy percent of tickets.
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: We got eighty seven percent of the cash on the Niners,
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: so the market read is still indicating to me on
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: the forty nine ers side. We'll see what happens by
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: tomorrow night. But I like the Niners here. That's what
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: we're gonna go with there, and that's gonna do it. Man.
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: Hopefully we can get some wins out of that. The
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: two plays one more time for the NFL or Cleveland
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: plus the points. Don't know if you'll be able to
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: get better than three and a half, but I do
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: like three and a half. You're getting the better. Uh,
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: you're getting at least the hook on the key number
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: there San Francisco. Like I said, I found it at
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: minus three. If you got a bunch of books available,
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: you might be able to find that. I would still
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: probably do it at three and a half. Oh and
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: I did forget a teaser of the week, although actually
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: my mistake because I was gonna say, if you wanted
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: to make a teaser, I was gonna say, you should
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: have teased whoever was the underdog in the Texans Chargers
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: game up like whenever you saw the line at one
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: and a half, you should just tease that dog up,
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: because either way you did it, they covered that leg
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: of the teaser. So my mistake, My apologies. Man. So yeah,
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: I should have given that one out, and then I
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: don't even know what the other leg would be though,
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: Like I mean, I don't think any of the favorites
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: are necessarily like a really great like outright, you know what,
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: I could see the argument for doing it with the Eagles,
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: Like bumping the Eagles up to above seven, it would
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: be a Stanford long. The Eagles at least play good deepfense,
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: so they might be able to not let the Bills
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: run away with that game. So the Eagles might actually
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: be a decent teaser leg. And Saints Titans are very
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: low totals. If you want to pump the Titans up
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: to seven and a half at home, getting seven and
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: a half points at home, that seems like not a
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: bad teaser leg either. So just throwing that out there,
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: that's gonna do it, man, Thank you, sir, Thank you,
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: mister pinsy UNLV Giant. If you're gonna tease the Giants Raiders,
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: give me you'd have to tease the Raiders up to
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: eight and a half or whatever. I don't know. I
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: don't necessarily love that one. I like the Giants to
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: win that game, so I could potentially see the Giants
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: winning that game by margin. So I don't know that
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: one worries me a little bit more of the Raiders.
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: They're just atrocious, man. Thanks guys, thanks for hanging out.
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: That's gonna do it. Learn it toad on Twitter, got
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: subscriptions over there, now learn it. Tone on Instagram, like
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: and subscribe here on YouTube. Give me you know, the
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: comments on your positive comments, man, and then we got
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: we're on audio as well. H Spotify and Apple. Give
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: me a good review over there. That helps me out
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: as well. Listening over there helps me out. Run. Uh
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: my Yuke stuff is on is on YouTube covered in
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: Yuke is my ukulele covers. I think I got that
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: up to date, Charles. I got your your cover up
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: there as well, the one that you requested, which you
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: can request go to patreon dot com slash learn it
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: and I will prioritize those requests for Yu covers there
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: and you get a Yuke Spotify feed there as well.
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: And then I'm also on the Loser Cast. You can
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: check that out as well the comedy podcast panel. Wow,
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: this game is a three point game again here It's
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: been back and forth. Man, this game is crazy. Both
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: teams have scores. Is the last time I turned my head?
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: Crazy game? Anyway? Yeah, and then at some point, I
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: guess there will be this Giants podcast that I'm supposed
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: to be doing with Ben, but haven't heard from him
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: over the holidays. The g spot is gonna be the
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: name of it. Maybe at this point we just won't
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: do it until next year, but we'll see what happens
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: with that. But that's gonna do it. I'll be back
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: in the morning. Unfortunately, I have to grind through all
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: this college basketball that's coming back tomorrow, and there will
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: be NBA and NHL as well. No college football tomorrow,
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: but I gotta get through it all man, So we'll
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: see my loser pick should win. Yeah, thank you the
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: the Call of Duty CEO. Yes, that's right. He crashes
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: Ferrari and cause his own death and the death of
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: a friend whose name hasn't been released. So really really great.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: Definitely a loser. That's gonna do it. I'll be back
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: in the morning. I gotta get some sleep as well.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: Thanks guys for hanging out peace for now.