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Navigating the Oil Shock and Geopolitical Storm · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning , traders !
• 0:02
  It is 6 am on Monday , April 13th , 2026 , here on the West Coast .
• 0:07
  You are listening to Spy Trader , and I am your host , Sunny SideUp .
• 0:11
  We have got a lot to unpack this morning as the markets wake up to some serious geopolitical waves .
• 0:17
  While we enjoyed a nice rally last week , with the Nasdaq Composite up nearly five percent and the S&P 500 gaining over three percent , the mood has definitely soured today .
• 0:29
  Over the weekend , peace talks in the Middle East collapsed , and we are now looking at a U.S.
• 0:34
  naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz .
• 0:37
  This has sent shockwaves through the futures market , with S&P 500 futures , or SPY , down over half a percent and the Nasdaq100 , ticker QQQ , down nearly one percent before the opening bell .
• 0:50
  The big story is oil .
• 0:52
  West Texas Intermediate crude has blasted past one hundred and four dollars a barrel .
• 0:59
  This makes the Energy sector , tracked by the XLE ETF , the clear standout .
• 1:04
  In fact , while every other sector struggled in March , energy stocks gained ten percent .
• 1:10
  It is a total decoupling .
• 1:11
  Meanwhile , the Technology sector , or XLK , is divided .
• 1:15
  On one side , you have AI giants like Nvidia and Broadcom hitting record highs .
• 1:21
  Nvidia is now actually the largest company in the world at a four point six trillion dollar market cap !
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  On the other side , a giant like Microsoft is down twentythree percent this year .
• 1:33
  Even though their business fundamentals are strong , the market is really squeezing their valuation .
• 1:38
  We are also seeing a tough start to bank earnings .
• 1:41
  Goldman Sachs actually reported strong results this morning , but their stock still dropped four percent in premarket trading , which is weighing on peers like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America .
• 1:53
  It seems like the market is in a mood where even good news is not enough .
• 1:58
  Looking at the big picture , we are facing an inflation shock .
• 2:02
  The March CPI report showed a zero point nine percent monthly increase , which puts the annual rate at three point four percent .
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  This is primarily driven by energy costs , which are up over twelve percent this year .
• 2:16
  This jump has effectively killed our hopes for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve , who are currently holding steady at three point five to three point seven five percent .
• 2:27
  With GDP growth slowing to just zero point seven percent , the market is feeling those stagflation concerns .
• 2:34
  So , what is the game plan for today ?
• 2:36
  First , for a tactical hedge , look at the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund , ticker XLE .
• 2:43
  With oil prices where they are , these largecap energy firms are direct beneficiaries .
• 2:49
  Second , for a longterm value play , I would keep a close eye on Microsoft , ticker MSFT .
• 2:56
  It is trading at a significant discount to its historical average , and for a company with that kind of cloud growth , this could be a generational opportunity .
• 3:05
  If you prefer a diversified approach to tech recovery , the XLK ETF is a solid option .
• 3:12
  For a defensive move in fixed income , I suggest avoiding the volatility of longdated treasuries .
• 3:19
  Instead , check out the iShares Core U.S.
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  Aggregate Bond ETF , ticker AGG .
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  It is a more stable way to protect your capital while yields recalibrate .
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  Finally , if you are worried about the rising geopolitical tension , look at SPDR Gold Shares , ticker GLD .
• 3:38
  Gold is a classic safe haven that tends to perform when the world gets a little too exciting .
• 3:43
  Stay sharp out there , keep your head on a swivel , and let us see how the opening bell treats us .
• 3:49
  This is Sunny SideUp , signing off for now !