Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 113 - 9/6/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 113 - 9/6/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 113 of the All Systems Go sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:34
Happy Friday, but more importantly, thank God for the
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NFL. Football is back, and boy did we
0:41
start the season on a hot note. A perfect sweep, Bust out the
0:45
brooms. 3 and O + 2.52 units had a great fade.
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The trendy dog hit with a little bit of luck thanks to likely's
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toe being out of bounds. But Kansas City on the money
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line came through. Remember that was a public
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Ravens line. Went to Kansas City, went with
0:59
KC and again, never hurts to have a little bit of luck on
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your side. Thankfully that game and what I
1:04
was worried about and I was really scared about is if he was
1:07
in, Harbaugh was going to go for two.
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So imagine, you know, covering A2 or 2 1/2 or three or a money
1:13
line bet that you're about to win.
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And then if his foot was in and they converted the, you know,
1:18
the going for two, you could have lost that one.
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So talk about a crazy sweat there late.
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Didn't think it was that sweaty when the Chiefs are up by 10,
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but came through with the money line winner.
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We will take it because we know at some point in the year
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probably something like that is going to going to go against us.
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So we deserved it last night. We'll take it every time.
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And then shout out to our friends at Rhythm who helped us
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cash two player props number one, Lamar Jackson over 48 1/2
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rushing yards. Rhythm predicted 72.4.
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He cashed that thing in the first half.
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He ended up with 122. So thank you to Rhythm for
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giving us a winner there with Lamar Jackson.
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And then little old Justin Watson.
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He only had one catch, but it was for 25 yards.
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Cashed our over 16 1/2 and Rhythm absolutely nailed that as
2:03
they were predicting a 3030 yard output for Watson.
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O. If maybe you weren't a huge
2:08
believer or weren't paying too much attention to Rhythm prior
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to last night, well, I know you are now.
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So before we even get going, make sure you go download the
2:16
Rhythm A because we are going to be leaning on player Ros.
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And the other thing we're going to lean on are predictions for
2:22
game bets. So like for example, if a
2:25
favorite is -3 and Rhythm says, you know, the line should be
2:28
1.2, we'll look at taking the dog plus three.
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Well, not every single time, but we'll kind of factor that into
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our handicap. If a favorite's -3 and rhythm
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says, hey, we have a -, 4.7 boom, that'll help us to lean on
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that favorite maybe. So we're going to be talking a
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lot about Rhythm. And I do have an announcement
2:45
coming. Stay tuned to my Twitter at Josh
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under score Insights. I'm getting kind of the last
2:50
finishing touches on it, but I will be doing something on
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Sunday most likely so stay tuned.
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You'll see it from my Twitter. But a great start to the year.
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Go download the rhythm map by clicking the bio description or
3:01
within the bio description of the pod on Spotify or iTunes.
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You'll have a link to rhythm and you and be able to track all
3:07
these bets along with us all season long.
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So absolutely beautiful start to the year.
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Three and oh plus 2.52 units now.
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No time to rest on our laurels. The beauty of football season is
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whether we want three and oh or oh and three yesterday on to the
3:20
next. The model never changes.
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So looking for today and we're going to focus on in particular
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another NFL game. I'm very happy to see that there
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is a game tonight in San Paulo, Brazil, Green Bay Packers,
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Philadelphia Eagles. I have a best bet on the side
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and have a player prop for you. So I'm very much excited to
3:38
break those down to you and hopefully continue our hot
3:40
streak in an NFL to start the year.
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Also guess what's coming up tomorrow biting.
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I know you all missed the UFC, but I have a UFC best bet for
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you with a fantastic low bets higher dollars reverse line move
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bet split and a big youth advantage.
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So hopefully we can extend our winning streak.
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We've won eleven straight. Let's try to get the 12 and O
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also I'm going to give you an update on some NFL bets for this
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weekend, which I already have a few in pocket.
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I'll give you an update and pretty much the same ones that
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we've been talking about, but there's another game that kind
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of caught my eye it's upcoming in a couple days.
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I'm not going to give it away, but I'm now thinking we should
4:15
take the points with this dog. So stay tuned for that and then
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I will write the sharp report for visen.com comes out every
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single day and I'll have a full sharp report for college
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football tomorrow. But I have two official college
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football best bets for you and they are hold your nose
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contrarian place with a lot of system matches, some good rhythm
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edges. One team is a dog only getting
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26% of bets. The other team is a dog only
4:38
getting 13% of bets. So let's get these contrarian
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dogs to bark. So it'll be pretty much all
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football today. NFL best bet for Packers,
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Eagles, a player propping that game, UFC for tomorrow, update
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for the NFL plays for this weekend and a couple college
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football best bets to put in now.
4:55
Now you may be asking yourself, Josh, there's a full MLB slate
4:58
tonight. You know what, guys, MLB, it's
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there for us if you want to bet it.
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I did notice a few lines I like today.
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But after a great night last night, I'm in the mood to play
5:07
some football. I don't really want to get my
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heart ripped out and danced to the beat in baseball.
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So I'm again taking a day off from MLB without further ado
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after a great night last night. 3 and O + 2.52 units.
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Let's hope to keep that going here for tonight.
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So best bet we're going to we're going to hop in the the plane
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going to get down to San Paulo, Brazil for the International
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Series Packers and Eagles tonight at 8:15 PM Eastern Time.
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So a little background on these teams and I'm going to tell you
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where I'm going to go for it tonight.
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So Packers last year, nine and eight, finished the season but
5:40
did get a wild card berth and reached the NFC divisional
5:42
round. Remember, they covered against
5:44
the 49ers. They lost 24 to 21.
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I remember. I think they're getting what, 6
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points in that game? But anyway, they probably should
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have won that game. Their win total for this year is
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9 1/2. The over is just 2 -, 135.
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So odds makers are expecting another win, another good season
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for the Packers. I personally, you mentioned it
6:00
yesterday, I'm on Packers over 9 1/2 wins Eagles, by the way,
6:05
11:00 and 6:00 last year. But remember they started 10 and
6:07
one they really struggled down the stretch.
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They made the playoffs, but they got rolled by the bucks 32 to 9
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in the wild card round. However, odds makers thinking
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they're probably going to have another Goodyear this year, they
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went to was 10 1/2 the overs juiced to -130 So for this line
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here for tonight, this is kind of interesting because it's been
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a little bit back and forth, but one thing that's never changed
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is the contrarian side. So this game opened Philly
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around a one point neutral site favorite.
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Remember, we're in Brazil neutral site game.
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So this is kind of a perfect example of the open as A1
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neutral site. Basically, this is a coin flip
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spot where both teams are about equal.
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However, the one thing that the public is totally in on is the
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Eagles. Remember they went to the Super
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Bowl a couple years ago, Jalen Hurts, A.J.
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Brown, Devonta Smith, they're kind of a big team from a big
6:54
market and they're getting a lot of love and support in the
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market. So the Eagles are getting 71% of
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bets and pretty much around the same, almost 80% of dollars.
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So this is a heavy, heavy, lopsided betting market in favor
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of Philly. Now, it looks like some early
7:11
money did hit Philly because the Eagles open -1 they got all the
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way up to -3 so that makes sense.
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Heavy pro and Joe betting, big amount of tickets, huge
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preponderance of money hitting Philly.
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Standard movement. The line move toward the big
7:26
popular side. However, we did see a ton of
7:29
buyback on Green Bay. And I'll tell you right now
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guys, I'm taking Green Bay tonight and I'll give you the,
7:33
I'll give you my breakdown to this, which we're doing right
7:36
now. But anyway, when it got to
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Philly -3 it immediately got back down to 2 1/2.
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And now a lot of books are even down to two.
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So that tells me that maybe some early money getting Philly -1 -,
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1 1/2 saw value in that early number.
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But all the late buyback, and we know how important buyback is,
7:54
especially toward the contrarian side, is pretty much siding with
7:58
Green Bay. So the fact that Green Bay
8:01
tipped out or kind of high watermarked at +3 got down to 2
8:05
1/2, some looks even down to two, that's really important to
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me because Green Bay is only getting 29% of spread bets for
8:12
tonight. So even if you just disregard
8:15
the sharp buyback on Green Bay, just from the standpoint of a
8:18
Friday night game, nationally televised, what do we like to do
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in nationally televised games? We like to go contrarian.
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Because think of it, Friday night, people are going to get
8:28
out of work. They want to go to the bar, you
8:30
know, go hang out with friends, have people over, whatever the
8:33
case may be, they're going to bet on this game.
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This is going to be an extremely heavily backed game and what are
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they going to do? They're all going Philly.
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So just from the standpoint of everyone's on Philly, I want to
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be on Green Bay as a contrarian better.
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I want to bet against all that public bias on Philly.
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So that was the first thing I noticed.
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Wow, Green Bay is really, really contrarian.
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I like that as a contrarian better, but then adding the
8:54
contrarian spot with the buyback, now we're starting to
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piece together a little bit of smart money.
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Hitting Green Bay caused that line to come back down.
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Now, aside from the great contrarian value, we have some
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system matches on Green Bay primetime dogs.
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They're 120 and 92 against the spread 57% with a nine percent
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ROI since 2020. Obviously prime time dog, you
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had a prime time dog lose last night, but still, this is a
9:20
great angle here. And again, that was kind of a
9:22
crazy outcome with likely's toe being being out.
9:25
But either way, taking dogs in prime time has been a smart
9:28
situation. Now, if you look at in
9:30
particular week one, dogs 71 and 53 against the spread, 57
9:35
percent, 10% ROI all the way. Since 2016, Jordan Love,
9:40
quarterback for Green Bay, who I'm pretty high on 10 and five
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against the spread, 67 percent, 27% ROI as a dog in his career.
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So Jordan Love's been good as a dog.
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Now, if you like Green Bay and want to go contrarian, my play
9:55
here is I'm taking Green Bay plus 2 1/2.
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I don't think you're going to get the three.
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If anything, this may even come back down to 2.
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So I will take the hook on the 2 1/2.
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But if you want a Wong teaser Green Bay, now there's a book by
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Stanford Wong, who pretty much was popularizing or was the
10:10
first really to talk about strategically placing teaser
10:13
bets. And the whole point is going
10:15
through multiple key numbers. So you could Wong teaser Green
10:17
Bay plus 2 1/2 up to plus 8 1/2. Now, why is that a smart move?
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Because you go through three, you go through seven.
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That means the top two key numbers, most common margins of
10:27
victory, you would cover that. Another variable though.
10:31
And I like to stick to the data though, is I was reading about
10:34
and I noticed some headlines. The Eagles are like complaining.
10:37
They're bitching about going to Brazil.
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A lot of players are reluctant about it.
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Even you had Darius Slay say, quote, I do not want to go to
10:44
Brazil. So you can't get more clear than
10:46
that. I know he tried to apologize
10:47
later. And I think I was also reading
10:49
about how they're mad that they're quote UN quote, the home
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team here because that basically takes away from a true home game
10:55
in Philadelphia. So I'll just throw that in.
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Just the fact that Philly's super overvalued the public's
11:00
all over them. Contrarian plays, Green Bay
11:03
lines going back to Green Bay, and you don't hear Green Bay
11:06
complaining about Brazil. Philly's the one complaining.
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I just don't like that mindset from Philly.
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That's a bet against for me now. In terms of the total, it opened
11:14
around 48 1/2 to get up to 49 1/2.
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Some books are coming back down a little bit.
11:19
I didn't really have a play on the total Eileen, Contrarian
11:21
Unders and prime time games anyway, but it's pretty much a
11:24
5050 bet split, so I really didn't have much there.
11:28
But my angle here is taking the Packers again.
11:30
You would have loved the three. It's not available anymore.
11:32
You can tease them up if you want, but here's what might give
11:35
you a little bit of confidence. Rhythm, who helped us cash
11:38
multiple plays last night. Rhythm not only is great with
11:42
their player props, but they have game predictions.
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So Rhythm for this game has a prediction of Philly -1 So think
11:50
of it this way. They're predicting A1 point
11:51
game. We're getting 2 1/2.
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That's how we can use Rhythm to our advantage.
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That's a actionable edge or advantage over the book and also
11:59
the community model. If you look at that little bar
12:02
on your Rhythm app below every bet, it'll show you the
12:04
community edge or everyone who has an account at Rhythm and
12:08
created a model that matches for this game. 87% of models are
12:12
matching Green Bay in the points.
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So again, 87%. As a contrarian, I always
12:16
mention this is not a good thing, but in terms of being
12:20
with the 87% of wise guys and wise gals who have a Rhythm
12:23
account, that's a good thing. But the most important thing
12:25
here is everyone's bet in Philly lines.
12:27
Coming back to the Packers guys, we have a rhythm edge.
12:30
I'm going Packers here. That's how it's hop in a plane,
12:33
get down to Brazil and sweat Packers plus 2 1/2.
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That is my play for tonight. Now, in terms of a player prop,
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I found one player prop that caught my eye, Devonta Smith.
12:44
Remember him from Alabama? Well, Devonta Smith has a great
12:48
edge here from the betting market to what rhythm is
12:51
predicting. So I'm going to go Devonta Smith
12:53
over 59 1/2 receiving yards. Now, what I like about this one
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is that Rhythm is predicting 74.9 receiving yards.
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And remember yesterday Watson was 16 1/2.
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Rhythm predicted 30. That's an edge.
13:08
And I think kind of a ballpark is if we're going to play these
13:10
Rhythm edges, like, for example, if Devonta Smith's overrunner is
13:13
59 1/2 and Rhythm has 61, that is maybe not worth betting.
13:18
It's pretty much right there. But a discrepancy of what, 15
13:22
yards? Me, I think maybe we should come
13:24
up with kind of our benchmark here and I would say maybe at
13:26
least 10 yards in terms of what rhythm is predicting and what
13:29
the betting market is offering. But also other reasons like
13:33
Demonta Smith, he has gone over this number in seven of his last
13:36
10 games. Also, Demonta Smith was second
13:39
on the team and targets last year, 112.
13:41
A.J. Brown was the leader with 158,
13:44
but also green base. Top corner is Jair Alexander.
13:47
He's expected to cover Brown. So Smith is probably going to go
13:50
up against Eric Stokes decent corner, but their second corner.
13:54
Also this is a pretty high total 49 and a half 49.
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So expecting a lot of offense. Maybe we can lean on some
14:01
players here offensively to go over their prop outputs and it's
14:04
a very short spread, you know, 2 1/2 two could be back and forth,
14:09
who knows, maybe we get overtime.
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So in that spot with expecting good offense, a very short
14:14
spread, but then also hopefully you'll be good, perfect
14:17
conditions here on the field. It's Corinthians Field in San
14:20
Paulo and it's going to be like low 60s.
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No wind should be good to go here.
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It's not like it's, you know, downpouring or anything.
14:27
Like last night, couple people reached out to me and they're
14:30
like, do you still like Lamar Jackson over 48 1/2?
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It got down to 46 1/2. Well, I think that was really
14:35
because there was a unexpected rainstorm in at Arrowhead.
14:39
And with rain, you know, maybe, maybe it hurts the passing
14:42
offense a bit. But if you want to ride with me
14:45
again, Damonta Smith over 59 1/2 receiving yards, Rhythm is
14:49
predicting 74.9. Let's go Smith over 59 1/2 and
14:54
let's go Packers to cover this number +2 and a half.
14:58
Now let's look to you. Should we do UFC right now?
15:02
Yeah, let's do UFC. I'm excited.
15:03
Let's talk about some biting for this weekend.
15:06
So for UFC, which I was going through withdrawal because they
15:09
didn't have it last week. So it's been a couple weeks.
15:11
But remember, we're 11 and O, our last 11.
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Let's try to make it 12 and O. And for those who are new to
15:17
sweating UFC, here's the model that we've been using with
15:21
pretty decent success, I should say.
15:23
Younger, taller, longer reach, line move, low bets, higher
15:27
dollars, bet split. So with that being said, there
15:30
was one fight or bite that caught my eye.
15:33
And wouldn't you know it, it is the main event.
15:35
It is Sean Brady against Gilbert Burns.
15:39
Who are we going with here? Sean Brady?
15:42
Let's go. Brady, we jumped out to me first
15:46
is the massive line move and ridiculous bet split.
15:49
I mean, this is right up our alley.
15:51
I got my e-mail from John Ewing this morning and I was starting
15:53
to go through each bout and boom, this one was just like,
15:57
you know, alarm bells started flashing.
15:59
Sean Brady open this fight at -165 he's up to -185 -, 190.
16:06
So we have a line move towards Sean Brady.
16:08
But what's really important is the bet split. 84% of bets are
16:13
taking Gilbert Burns, yet the line move towards Sean Brady.
16:18
So if 84% of bets are going with Burns, you would think the line
16:23
would drop in Burns favor. No, it went the other way.
16:25
It went further toward Brady even though the public is
16:28
hammering Gilbert Burns. Why is that important?
16:31
That means Burns is a trendy dog.
16:33
We like to fade trendy dogs. Now it's not just the line move
16:37
in the contrarian bet split, but look at the bets versus dollars.
16:41
Sean Brady is only getting 16% of bets, but 73% of dollars.
16:48
Again, I'm the type of guy who's stared at a lot of bet splits
16:51
across all different sports. I don't know if I remember a 16%
16:55
bet, 73% money. Maybe that was McGregor versus
16:59
Floyd Mayweather back in the day.
17:01
But that boom, I was sold right there. 16% bets, 73% money, and
17:06
a line move -165 up to -185 -, 190.
17:11
Then I do a little more digging. Sean Brady, did you know, is 31
17:15
years old. Gilbert Burns is 38 years old.
17:18
So seven-year youth advantage for Brady.
17:22
Someone told me a long time ago, a mentor of mine, when I first
17:25
started getting into UFC, fade fighters bet against fighters
17:29
who are 35 or older and fade fighters bet against fighters
17:33
who are at least five years older than their opponent.
17:35
Now they're both 5 foot 8. But we do have a one inch reach
17:38
advantage for Brady, 72 inches versus 71.
17:42
Now let's get into some other variables here.
17:44
Significant strikes per minute. How much offensive output do you
17:48
put out there? 3.77 versus 3.29 in favor of
17:52
Brady? How often do you connect on
17:55
those significant strikes? 53% Brady, 48% burns.
17:59
And can you defend significant strikes against you?
18:02
61% Brady, 54% burns. So giving dishing out punishment
18:08
and taking punishment and connecting both or all favor
18:12
Sean Brady. Now, I was reading about how
18:14
Brady is an elite grappler. He's a really good wrestler.
18:18
So if this gets to the mat, hopefully that's a benefit for
18:20
us. Brady is finishing his takedowns
18:22
on 57% of his attempts. Burns is only finishing 38%.
18:28
Now thwarting a takedown, someone tries to take you down.
18:31
Can you block them? 87% for Brady, only 50% for
18:35
Burns. And then just kind of an
18:38
overarching way to to bet on Brady and fade burns is that
18:42
Burns fades in a lot of these fights fading in terms of he's
18:45
getting older. You know, you get to round two,
18:47
round three, round four, round five.
18:50
He can really fade. That's what we've seen in his
18:52
last few fights. He also is coming off a major
18:55
shoulder surgery and he lost his last bout to Jack.
19:00
JDMO is his nickname, Jack Della Madalena.
19:05
But we have an older fighter off an injury who fades late in
19:08
fights versus Brady, who is literally in the prime of his
19:12
career. So I could have just ended the
19:14
cap with Sean Brady, 16% bet, 73% money, and a sharp line move
19:19
in his favor. But you add in those additional
19:21
factors, we have an opportunity here to back Sean Brady.
19:25
So that's what I'm doing. Guys, if you'd like to join,
19:27
hopefully we can extend our winning streak to 12.
19:29
Let's go Sean Brady, shop around.
19:31
I got Brady on the money line. I got him at -185 Now over to
19:38
some college football and then I'll give you an NFL update and
19:41
then I'll leave you a few thoughts here as we steam into
19:44
the weekend. So college football number one,
19:47
I'll just say look out for the sharp report tomorrow.
19:49
I'll tweet it out, Josh at Beeson or sorry at Josh under
19:54
score Insights, which I'll write about a bunch of games if you
19:56
want the full breakdown, but I'm going to give you 2 that I'll be
19:59
sweating for tomorrow. The first one is the most
20:02
heavily bet game of the day. It is Texas against Michigan.
20:07
Now Texas comes in one and O they're ranked third.
20:10
Michigan comes in ranked 10th. They're one and O as well.
20:14
Obviously Texas is big program, so is Michigan.
20:18
But the first thing I notice is that everybody and their mother
20:21
and probably their grandmother and their grandfather is on
20:24
Texas. So this is the most heavily bet
20:26
game of the day. It's on Fox, it's noon Eastern
20:29
Time and currently you're getting 74% of spread bets
20:32
going. Texas public thinks Texas is
20:34
going to roll Michigan. We saw some big line movement
20:38
here. Texas actually opened the look.
20:40
Headline was only Texas favored by 3 1/2.
20:44
It's gotten all the way up to -7 1/2 -, 7 seven and a half.
20:49
Hook's going to be important here because I'm going Michigan
20:51
plus 7 1/2. So couple ways to look at this
20:55
in terms of backing Michigan. One is that they're the best
20:58
contrarian play of the day, most heavily bet game of the day by
21:01
far. Everyone's on Texas.
21:03
I want to go the other way, bet against the drunk guys at the
21:05
bar and take Michigan. So Michigan is only getting 26%
21:08
of bets as a home dog in the most heavily bet game of the
21:12
day. However, you are seeing some
21:14
good buy back here because Michigan got as high as minus
21:18
Texas got as high as -7 1/2. Now you're starting to see it
21:21
come back down to seven. So it looks like wise guys have
21:25
kind of, you know, had a bite at the apple with the hook plus 7
21:28
1/2. So I like that buy back.
21:31
Also you look at couple other angles here.
21:35
Just a value play based on a look headline because look at
21:38
was only 3 1/2. Basically what we're looking at,
21:40
no pun intended, is an overreaction in favor of Texas
21:43
and a great buy low spot on Michigan because it should be a
21:46
3 1/2 point game. That was the early thought from
21:48
the odds makers. Now we're getting 7 1/2.
21:50
That's value. Also, I popped open rhythm and
21:55
rhythm has a projected spread of 6.4.
21:59
So if we're getting 7 1/2, you know, Rhythms got a 6.4
22:03
actionable value. I have my own personal model on
22:06
rhythm, my Josh Rhythm model, and it is predicting a 4.8
22:09
spread. So again, if Rhythm had, you
22:12
know, Texas minus 8.2 or Texas -9.7, you know, that would be
22:18
against us. The fact that the rhythm model
22:21
and my Josh rhythm model are both under or you know, I don't
22:24
know how you want to put it. You know, they're predicting a
22:27
closer game, I should say than what the odds makers are.
22:29
That gives me some confidence here Also, you have some classic
22:33
coral to betting dog low total. You're getting a super
22:36
contrarian dog plus 7 1/2 total. This game is 42.
22:40
So if this game was a total of 6272, you know that would be
22:45
better for the favorite, more expected points, easier to
22:47
cover. If we're looking at a lower
22:49
scoring game, that benefits Michigan because it's going to
22:51
be harder for Texas to cover the number.
22:54
But again, just like when I saw that bet split for Sean Brady,
22:57
when I saw that inflated line in favor of Michigan and everyone
23:01
and their mothers on the Longhorns, no hook, I'm here.
23:04
Sorry, McConaughey, let's go Michigan.
23:06
I'm taking Michigan, got to find the hook because if they lose by
23:09
7, you want to cover the seven half?
23:10
I'm on Michigan plus 7 1/2. Then my other bet for college I
23:16
want to share with you is the second most heavily back game of
23:18
the day, Iowa State and Iowa. Now this one's interesting in
23:22
terms of a reverse line move and some line freeze liability.
23:26
Now going into this one, we have Iowa.
23:29
Let me just pull them up because the Hawk guys are coming into
23:33
this one, one and O. And the really surprising thing,
23:36
I know they played Illinois State, is that they scored 40
23:37
points because their offense has been terrible for years.
23:41
But Iowa State is 1 and O as well.
23:43
They beat North Dakota 21 to three.
23:45
But Iowa comes in ranked 21st. Iowa State comes in unranked.
23:50
Now that really plays a big part into public perception.
23:53
The public is all over the Hawkeyes.
23:56
Iowa across the market is getting 87% of spread bets.
24:01
This is a huge, huge contrarian play in favor of Iowa State.
24:04
Everyone's going Iowa, but Iowa actually open this game -2 1/2
24:09
-, 3. The threes at one point got down
24:12
to 2 1/2, so you're kind of sitting in a spot where you're
24:16
juiced up toward Iowa State plus 3 -, 115.
24:20
And couple days ago there were 2 1/2's out there.
24:22
So my whole point being is when 87% of bets are in Iowa, they
24:26
open, let's just call it an opener of three.
24:28
Shouldn't they be up to -4 Shouldn't they be up to -5 No,
24:32
it stayed pretty much exactly where it's at and even dipped
24:34
down a bit despite everybody betting Hawkeyes.
24:38
That tells me we have great line freeze liability on Iowa State.
24:41
Why is the line right where it's at and even juiced up toward
24:44
Iowa State if everyone is betting Iowa?
24:47
So line freeze liability Iowa State's only hitting 13% of
24:51
spread bets. Also, we have an opportunity
24:55
here, unranked verse ranked. I was like to buy low on the
24:58
unranked team versus the ranked team because public loves the
25:00
ranked team. They'll overvalue the ranked
25:02
team. You have a dog low total you're
25:05
getting plus 3 total. This one is like 35.
25:09
Rhythm is predicting a 2.4 spread, so 2.4.
25:14
We're getting a three little bit of actionable value there.
25:17
And then I do have a system, Short Rd. dogs +4 or less.
25:20
It's been a grinder system this year, or you know, for many
25:23
years at this point. It's about 54% against the
25:25
spread over a long decade plus sample size.
25:29
But both Michigan, excuse me, I'm still dying with my fall
25:34
allergies, but both Michigan and Iowa State, fantastic contrarian
25:38
plays, two most heavily backed games, two biggest fade the
25:41
public plays, Michigan plus 7 1/2 behind the hook and give me
25:45
Iowa State plus three. Find that key number of three.
25:49
Now to finish up the pod. Let's talk some NFL real quick
25:54
because I should have an announcement for my Twitter.
25:56
Again, something coming up planned for Sunday.
25:59
So stay tuned for that. But I'm going to give you my
26:01
updated breakdowns here when it comes to plays for this weekend.
26:06
So I'm officially on Carolina +4.
26:09
Mentioned that earlier in the week, some books are trending
26:12
down toward 3 1/2. There are a lot of them are
26:15
juiced up toward the Carolina side.
26:16
I grabbed the four before it fell even further.
26:19
They're really contrarian. Everyone's on New Orleans, but
26:21
Carolina matches a ton of systems.
26:24
Dog missed the postseason, previous year, divisional dog,
26:27
Rd. dog, all these weak ones system.
26:29
So I'm officially on Carolina plus 4 Tennessee, Chicago.
26:34
Now I wanted Tennessee at +4. I wasn't able to pull the
26:37
trigger quick enough. So some books are at 3 1/2, but
26:41
I'm going to wait this thing out because some books are now
26:44
juiced a little bit towards Chicago -3 1/2 -, 115.
26:48
So I'm going to wait and try to get the four.
26:50
So that's kind of in my, my radar right now.
26:54
If I can't, I'll take the 3 1/2, but I think we might be able to
26:57
wait that one out. So I, I will be most likely or
26:59
I'll definitely be on Tennessee, but I'm holding out for the +4
27:03
between now and Sunday versus just grabbing the 3 1/2 right
27:06
now. Houston, Indianapolis #1
27:09
contrarian play of the week. Everyone is betting Houston.
27:13
Remember this was an opener of like 2, you know, 2 1/2, two
27:16
even like a 1 1/2 out there. It's now gone up to -2 1/2
27:20
juiced up even some threes. If you have an opportunity to
27:24
take indie plus three, I'm playing it.
27:26
One of my books was plus three at -120 I, I put that in because
27:31
Indy is incredibly contrarian. I think like Iowa State, they're
27:34
only getting like 17% of bets, but they would be divisional
27:37
dog, week one dog dog who missed the postseason.
27:41
I'm a, I'm a big Colts fan this week, so I'm on Colts plus
27:43
three, Vegas and the Chargers. I'm holding out for a hook on
27:47
Vegas. Shop around if you can find it.
27:50
I'm playing it right now. But you did open chargers -3
27:54
1/2. Everyone's been Chargers yet now
27:56
it's down to 3. So it looks like some reverse
27:58
line movement on Vegas. Dog who missed the postseason.
28:01
Both missed the postseason. Take the dog.
28:04
Divisional dog, Rd. dog all matching and lighting up on
28:07
Vegas. But right now they're plus
28:09
three. I'm holding out for a 3 1/2
28:13
Washington and Tampa Bay. I'll be on Washington here, but
28:16
I'm going to hold out for a four on Washington.
28:19
Washington Open +4 at Tampa Bay. Everyone's been in Tampa Bay,
28:24
but this line is now down to 3 1/2.
28:26
I believe it even got down to three.
28:28
Yeah, I was down to three much of the week.
28:30
Looks like there is some buyback on Tampa.
28:32
I'm seeing Tampa now -3 1/2 -, 115.
28:35
So let's wait this thing out. Let's try to get the four.
28:38
If you haven't bet it yet on Washington.
28:40
But that's my other angle. Taking Washington +4 now.
28:43
Might as well put this one in now.
28:45
Cleveland, Cleveland money line. Cleveland at home against
28:48
Dallas. Everyone's betting Dallas, but
28:51
remember Dallas opened as like a one Point Rd. favorite.
28:53
We've flipped to Cleveland -2 1/2.
28:55
So that is a fade the trendy dog, reverse line move in favor
28:58
of Cleveland. Shop around.
29:01
I bet Cleveland. I want to say it was -140 on the
29:04
money line, the fade, the trendy dog.
29:06
And then last game that I was kind of hinting out and we
29:09
started the pod, The Jets and the 49ers.
29:12
Now I know this isn't until Monday, so we back from the
29:15
weekend. We'll talk about on Monday's
29:16
pod, but I'm leaning Jets right now.
29:19
We had San Francisco open -5 I think I saw an opener of even -5
29:24
1/2. It's now down to 4 1/2.
29:27
Even though public is slightly going San Francisco.
29:30
I like the bet split on The Jets.
29:32
They're only getting 46% of bets but 65% of dollars and the line
29:37
has moved in their favor. They're in a great teaser spot
29:40
if you want to take Jets 4 1/2 up to 10 1/2, but they would
29:43
match Primetime Dog, contrarian dog, Rd. dog.
29:46
A lot of angles there are lighting up on The Jets.
29:48
So I'm looking at Jets 4 1/2. I'll wait that thing out, see if
29:52
we can maybe get a 5 again, but if not, I'm looking at The Jets
29:55
there at plus 4 1/2. So that is the official card
30:00
here as we're waiting on some better numbers, of course, but
30:04
I'm very much looking forward to the first full NFL Sunday and we
30:08
got a lot of angles here. And remember, the play is dogs,
30:11
Rd. dogs, contrarian dogs, divisional dogs week one.
30:14
They really tend to bark loudly. Let's hope that continues this
30:17
year. So that about does it another
30:19
Friday podcast here in the books.
30:22
Isn't life so much better with the NFL back?
30:24
I was watching sweat in that game.
30:26
Obviously I'm happy because we went three and O.
30:28
But just the fact that we get football back in our lives, win,
30:30
lose or draw, it's the ultimate sweat and it almost makes you
30:33
think, man, how do we survive, you know, six months plus
30:36
without it? But anyway, guys, if you had a
30:39
good night last night, if you enjoyed the pod, you like the
30:41
breakdowns, you had a good night.
30:43
Hopefully I don't know how you couldn't have had a good night
30:45
if you listen to the pod, but could you please make my day?
30:48
Let me know you appreciate this pod.
30:50
Could you please give it a five star review?
30:52
If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, click those five
30:55
stars and really go a long way to gaining some credibility in
30:59
the in the charts, rising up the rankings and of course, getting
31:02
more eyeballs and respect. If there's an option to follow,
31:05
click that as well. Then you'll be alerted as soon
31:07
as it drops each day. Secondly, I mentioned rhythm,
31:12
but have you also downloaded the juice reel app?
31:14
Juice reel is fantastic for AI driven best bet picks from our
31:18
buddy Robo Jackson. Remember Robo had KC money line
31:20
as well last night, which you'd love to see, but syncing up your
31:23
sports books, arbitrage opportunity, sharp mush plays.
31:27
I love rhythm, I love juice reel and you can sign up for both
31:30
using that custom link located in the bio description of the
31:33
pod. Of course, if you like these
31:35
breakdowns, you enjoy the pod, maybe you're finally learning
31:38
the tenants of sharp contrarian betting, but you want to learn
31:41
more, well, guess what? I wrote a book.
31:43
It's called the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
31:45
So just go to Amazon.com, type in the Everything Guide to
31:48
Sports Betting, pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
31:51
It's got everything I've learned in the industry, how lines are
31:54
set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to
31:56
locate sharp action, how to go contrarian, how to place a bet
31:59
in person or online. It's all included in the
32:02
Everything Guide to Sports Betting, so pick one up when I
32:05
see at the book, I'll sign the book for you.
32:06
I'll buy you a beer or a ginger ale, but that about does it.
32:10
Guys, after a great night last night, let's see if we can keep
32:12
it going into this weekend. My parting words as always,
32:16
whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
32:19
Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
32:22
Sun, down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
32:25
Park Casino or MGM Springfield. In my neck of the woods in
32:28
Massachusetts. Out in the desert where the true
32:30
grinders get down, where Billy Walters sends his number
32:33
runners, where the lowest juice possible is found at the South
32:35
Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
32:38
stadium swimming pool. When you get out to Circa,
32:40
wherever it may be, you're going to show me 3 beautiful tickets
32:44
to start the NFL season. Kansas City money line.
32:47
Lamar Jackson over 48 1/2 rushing yards.
32:50
Justin Watson over 16 1/2 receiving yards.
32:53
Guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
32:56
you. We'll post about the book.
32:57
Sweatshop Contrarian plays all night long.
33:00
So have a great Friday. Friday night everybody.
33:02
Have an even better weekend. And we'll be back at it on
33:05
Monday for episode 114 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
33:10
podcast powered by Rhythm. Have a great night everybody,
33:13
and an even better weekend.