Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 485 - 4/6/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 485 - 4/6/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 all systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
• 0:14
  welcome to. Episode 480.
• 0:17
  Five of the all. Systems Go sports betting
• 0:20
  podcast powered by Rhythm. I am your host, Josh.
• 0:25
  Applebaum, what's going on, everyone?
• 0:31
  Happy Monday, a new week. Begins Hope everyone had a
• 0:34
  fantastic Easter and Passover holiday and guess what guys, I.
• 0:39
  Got good news, bad news. The good news is we got.
• 0:40
  One more college basketball game to get down on here for tonight.
• 0:45
  The sad news is after tonight, no college basketball until what
• 0:49
  is it, October. So obviously March Madness comes
• 0:52
  to an end here. Championship game.
• 0:54
  We got Connecticut, we got Michigan.
• 0:57
  We got a very interesting. Split.
• 0:59
  Here between what the betting. Market is showing and what some
• 1:01
  of our other edges are showing in terms of in terms of rhythm
• 1:05
  system matches, Ken Palm, all that good stuff here.
• 1:07
  So I'm going. To tell you why when it comes to
• 1:10
  the. Side and the total I.
• 1:11
  Don't see a clear? Edge on one of them and I'm not
• 1:13
  going to play it. You might think it's an obvious
• 1:15
  bet to. Take one team over.
• 1:16
  The other, but without a clear edge, I think there's always a
• 1:20
  good idea to, you know, not force a bet.
• 1:21
  One big difference between wise guys, professional, better
• 1:25
  sharps ever you want to call him and the betting public is at the
• 1:27
  betting public, they want the action.
• 1:30
  If it's a national championship game, it's on TV.
• 1:32
  They want to bet it no matter what, Wise guys.
• 1:35
  If they don't, find a. Clear edge one way or the other.
• 1:37
  They're good, they have the ability.
• 1:38
  They have the discipline to lay off and not place a bet because
• 1:41
  remember the whole point of sharps in and playing the quote
• 1:45
  UN quote numbers versus. Teams are numbers over teams.
• 1:48
  Is that you only bet a game if you identify a clear edge, which
• 1:51
  will also be considered a advantage.
• 1:53
  Over the sports book so. When it comes to professional
• 1:56
  betters, it's not that they always agree.
• 1:58
  You know, sometimes there's disagreement.
• 1:59
  Like I will be honest, it looks like there's kind of a
• 2:01
  disagreement here on this game between some sharps, like in
• 2:04
  Connecticut plus 7 1/2 other sharps looking to buy low on
• 2:07
  Michigan -6 1/2. Again, this line's all over the
• 2:10
  place. Little full breakdown here in a
• 2:11
  second, but sharps in general are.
• 2:15
  Going to be looking at. Discrepancy plays where when
• 2:17
  they are setting up their own power ratings and again you look
• 2:20
  at Billy Walters, who was kind of the king of this there was a
• 2:23
  great if you're ever bored, you can just Google. 60 minutes,
• 2:25
  Billy. Walters and he A lot of people
• 2:28
  explain some former odds makers saying Billy Walters was better
• 2:32
  at setting the line than Vegas was at setting the line so he
• 2:35
  would look for discrepancy plays, you know if.
• 2:37
  He has a team. Favored by 5.1 and they're -3 in
• 2:41
  the betting market he's going to hammer them because that
• 2:43
  provides an actual edge or discrepancy or a just an.
• 2:47
  Advantage over the sports book. Flip it the other way, he's got
• 2:50
  a team 5.1 and maybe the dog is plus.
• 2:54
  You know what should I say? 5.1 and maybe the favorite is -3
• 2:59
  boom, he's going to hammer the favorite.
• 3:00
  You'll get the whole point here. It's all about the value
• 3:03
  compared to the best split, not the best.
• 3:05
  What's with the the power ratings of the wise guys set
• 3:08
  versus what the odds makers are doing?
• 3:10
  So going to talk. About the championship.
• 3:12
  Game here, here for tonight where I am not touching cider
• 3:16
  total, I'm not touching one of them, but I am playing the
• 3:19
  other. And it reminds me a little bit
• 3:21
  of something that we talked about on the Rhythm Rundown last
• 3:24
  Thursday and what played out on Saturday.
• 3:26
  So, final college basketball game of the night.
• 3:29
  Can can Connecticut continue to? Shock the world and Danny Hurley
• 3:33
  or Michigan, who've been wired to wire, just an incredible
• 3:36
  dominant team, Can they finish it off and cut down the Nets?
• 3:38
  We'll talk about that on today's pod with one bet, overall side
• 3:42
  or total. I might be giving it away, but I
• 3:44
  got one bet here, but I'm not going to touch the other one.
• 3:47
  I do want to mention as well I want to give a shout.
• 3:49
  Out to three people. In particular, I don't know if I
• 3:53
  know you or not, but there are three people left in the
• 3:56
  Applebaum March Madness Survivor contest.
• 4:00
  So you heard about this, probably I pounded you over the
• 4:03
  head with it, asking you all to join because I think it's fun.
• 4:06
  You know, you could win some money, which is what we always
• 4:09
  love and enjoy doing, but it just kind of gives you more
• 4:12
  excitement throughout the tournament.
• 4:14
  Had a lot of people. DM me and say man I really even
• 4:17
  people who got. Knocked out and I got knocked
• 4:19
  out. I think it was in the.
• 4:20
  Sweet 16 maybe? I think I took Houston and I I.
• 4:24
  Should have strategically, you know.
• 4:25
  Played to other teams, but whatever.
• 4:27
  What what did what did what his name say?
• 4:31
  My regrets. I have a few Frank Sinatra, but
• 4:33
  anyway. And a couple of people reach out
• 4:35
  saying, oh, I'm knocked out, I'm dead.
• 4:37
  But yet I loved. It and I can't wait for the
• 4:39
  another the next survivor, so stay tuned.
• 4:42
  I'm very happy to have partnered up with splash sports and they
• 4:46
  just make these contests really, really fun.
• 4:48
  So I'll have to figure out what the next one is.
• 4:49
  Maybe we'll do. Like an NHL or NBA.
• 4:52
  Survivor contest for the playoffs.
• 4:53
  That can be kind of fun. But anyway, there were 240. 5
• 4:57
  total entries in the. Applebaum March Madness Survivor
• 5:00
  contest. Remember it's 25 bucks a pop.
• 5:03
  The winner? Who will be announced tonight?
• 5:06
  I think takes home around 4 or $5000.
• 5:09
  So pretty awesome there. But anyway, we start with 2:45.
• 5:13
  We have 3 left. So if you're listening and
• 5:16
  hopefully you're a podcast listener or obviously I reached
• 5:19
  out to you or you click the the link on Twitter to sign up.
• 5:22
  But I want to give three shout outs here.
• 5:24
  We have plus money who is labeled as Joshua F.
• 5:28
  Again, don't know who you are. But thank you for joining.
• 5:30
  Joshua F for tonight has Connecticut.
• 5:33
  So if Connecticut wins this thing tonight, Joshua F is
• 5:36
  taking taking home. Quite a few GS tonight.
• 5:39
  Then we have two other people left, both who have Michigan.
• 5:43
  So it's T. Dog Spur master who is Kenneth S
• 5:47
  in Lamo Sonic, Nicholas L They both have Michigan.
• 5:52
  Now you might be asking yourself OK Connecticut wins.
• 5:54
  Joshua F takes home a crap ton of money, but if Michigan wins,
• 5:59
  you know, how do how do we, you know, figure out who's taking?
• 6:02
  Home the money between. Kenneth S and Nicholas L Well,
• 6:06
  I'm not, I got to double check the the fine print here.
• 6:09
  So I don't know if Michigan wins you these two guys, Kenneth S
• 6:13
  and Nicholas L. Split the money or it may go to
• 6:16
  the tiebreaker which would be the seeds that you use, the the
• 6:20
  each seed and and the number. Because basically, if you bet.
• 6:24
  A lot of 1 seeds and two seeds to.
• 6:26
  Advance you'll they basically compile.
• 6:29
  The teams you picked in the seeding of the teams that you
• 6:31
  picked. So if you use higher seeded
• 6:34
  teams or basically worst seeded teams, your.
• 6:36
  Seeding is higher or more than that.
• 6:38
  Shows that you survived and you even took.
• 6:41
  Less chalky teams, if that makes sense.
• 6:43
  So I got to double check. I don't know if Kenneth S and
• 6:45
  Nicholas L if Michigan. Wins.
• 6:47
  They split the money. Or Kenneth S might win it all
• 6:51
  because his. Total seeds use was. 29 and the.
• 6:55
  Total seeds. Seeds use for.
• 6:56
  Nicholas L was 25, so again, I got to double check, but I think
• 7:01
  if if there's one person rooting for a Connecticut victory
• 7:03
  tonight, it's our guy, Joshua F. So I want to thank everyone who
• 7:06
  joined the Applebaum March Madness Survivor contest.
• 7:10
  We'll see who gets the winner here tonight, Joshua F, Kenneth
• 7:13
  S or Nicholas L Either way, one of these three.
• 7:16
  Or maybe two or three if they. Split It are taking home a few
• 7:19
  $1000 tonight. So as always, thank you for
• 7:22
  joining. Now that being said.
• 7:24
  Let's talk about the championship game here.
• 7:26
  For tonight, because March Madness coming to an end.
• 7:29
  It's always funny when you get to the championship game, guys,
• 7:31
  whether it's, you know, Super Bowl or, you know, World Series,
• 7:34
  other sports, they have the bestest best of five, best of
• 7:36
  seven, but you get to like the one off Super Bowl, national
• 7:39
  championship game for football, whatever the case may be for
• 7:43
  college football that is. But always, you know.
• 7:45
  Gets excited, amped up. It's a championship game.
• 7:47
  But then you're like. Man, after this, there's going
• 7:50
  to be no more games to bet on for quite a while, so let's try
• 7:52
  to make the most of it. See if we can.
• 7:54
  Win our final ticket of the college basketball season.
• 7:58
  So without further ado. Connecticut, Michigan, 8:50 PM.
• 8:02
  Eastern Time tonight, as we always do, let's set the stage.
• 8:05
  Talk splits, line, move, system, matches, rhythm, juice, reel,
• 8:09
  the whole shebang. Ken Palm.
• 8:10
  And I'll give you why my play here tonight, why I'm laying off
• 8:14
  one thing and I'm playing the other.
• 8:17
  So little background here, UConn. 34 and five on the year.
• 8:21
  The two seed just beat Illinois 71 to 50.
• 8:24
  Two in the final four, one outright as a 1 1/2 point
• 8:27
  neutral site dog. Meanwhile, Michigan. 36 and
• 8:30
  three the. One seed just dominated Arizona.
• 8:33
  91 to 73. In the final four.
• 8:35
  Easily winning. Outright as a 1 1/2 point
• 8:37
  neutral site dog. More on that in a second now.
• 8:41
  What have we seen across the market?
• 8:42
  Well, this game opened mostly Michigan -7 I did see some
• 8:46
  books. Michigan -7 1/2.
• 8:48
  But again. Mostly it was -7 across the
• 8:50
  market. Now the interesting thing here.
• 8:54
  Is that I guess this is obvious. The public's on.
• 8:56
  Michigan. Because Michigan.
• 8:57
  Has been an absolute powerhouse throughout the tournament.
• 9:00
  You know, they've laid big numbers.
• 9:01
  They've covered almost all of them.
• 9:03
  I think the only one they didn't cover was Howard, ironically
• 9:06
  enough, in the first round they were laying a massive number and
• 9:08
  they only came up a little bit short covering -25 whatever that
• 9:12
  number was. But anyway, public is saying
• 9:15
  I've seen enough UConn. Yeah, good little story.
• 9:18
  Yeah, You know, you have Danny Hurley, who's an epic, crazy
• 9:22
  coach who I actually really enjoy watching.
• 9:24
  I think he's good for the game. But you know what, UConn, you're
• 9:27
  going to meet your. Fate tonight when David meets
• 9:29
  Goliath and Goliath destroys David because Michigan has been
• 9:32
  a powerhouse really from the start and the public is saying
• 9:36
  give me Michigan here, don't care that it's a 7 point spread.
• 9:39
  Normally in a championship game, that would.
• 9:41
  Feel like a big number? But Michigan, I mean, they've.
• 9:43
  Typically laid bigger, bigger numbers than that.
• 9:46
  So right now we are getting. 63. Percent of spread bets at
• 9:49
  DraftKings laying the points. With Michigan, so Michigan is?
• 9:52
  Clearly, the public. Play tonight.
• 9:54
  Nearly. 2/3 of tickets laying it with the Wolverines.
• 9:57
  However, here's what's interesting.
• 9:59
  Even though the. Public is going Michigan nearly.
• 10:01
  2/3 of bets. Michigan is not up. -7 to 7 1/2
• 10:05
  up to -8 -, 8 1/2. No, we've seen the line pretty.
• 10:09
  Much stay where it's at, Michigan -7 still -7.
• 10:13
  Or quite a few. Shops are down to 6 1/2.
• 10:16
  So what does that tell us if 2/3 of the public the majority of
• 10:19
  tickets are on the. Wolverines, Why did the line?
• 10:22
  Either stay the same, not. Tick up or actually dip?
• 10:25
  Down a half point or even a full point if you go 7, half down to
• 10:29
  six and half, what's going on there?
• 10:31
  Well, we got to respect the betting market because sharps
• 10:34
  who move numbers, who have the respect to the books, they look
• 10:36
  like they're triggering a reverse line move or a line
• 10:39
  freeze on UConn. So even though UConn only.
• 10:41
  Getting about 1/3 of tickets. The line has stayed the same.
• 10:44
  Or even move. Slightly in their favor.
• 10:46
  So what do we call that? A classic RLM play, Reverse line
• 10:49
  move when the betting line goes away from the popular side
• 10:52
  toward the unpopular side. Or a line freeze 7 still 7 or
• 10:57
  again 6 1/2 line freeze ish versus or combined with an RLM
• 11:02
  here on Connecticut. So it tells me that Connecticut
• 11:04
  is taking in some respected money plus the points.
• 11:07
  Now Connecticut also for layering on some reasons to
• 11:11
  think about UConn tonight. They are a classic bet against
• 11:14
  the public play because this is an 850 game.
• 11:16
  So it's. Going to be extremely.
• 11:17
  Heavily bet everybody the public.
• 11:19
  'S going to be home. From work, it's a championship
• 11:21
  game. Anytime you get to the
• 11:22
  championship game, there's a one off.
• 11:24
  There's no other games on the market.
• 11:26
  Everyone's excited to play at the hype, all that kind of
• 11:28
  stuff. Leads to extremely.
• 11:30
  Heavily backed games, Championship games are always
• 11:32
  the most heavily backed games of the year.
• 11:34
  So if we want to bet against the public, which more often than
• 11:37
  not we want to do because more often than not the public is
• 11:40
  wrong. Again, hasn't been totally the
• 11:41
  case here because chalk has done really well in March Madness.
• 11:45
  Get to that in a second. But as a contrarian, better, it
• 11:48
  excites me that Connecticut is getting only about 1/3 of
• 11:51
  tickets. So contrarian value here in
• 11:54
  favor of the Huskies. Now, if you look at overall
• 11:58
  chalkiness and you might be saying yourself, OK, I respect
• 12:01
  this, you know, line freeze RLM toward Connecticut.
• 12:04
  But I've seen this movie before and Michigan is a powerhouse and
• 12:07
  I don't care what the number is, I'm going Michigan.
• 12:10
  Well. I'd be a little wary of that
• 12:11
  just because. You know, typically that's a a
• 12:13
  public mindset, although Michigan has proven to cover
• 12:15
  these numbers anyway, they sometimes they're juggernaut
• 12:19
  teams at the betting market just, you know, gets wrong.
• 12:22
  But here's the thing, if you do like Michigan.
• 12:25
  They're getting 63. Percent bets 67% dollars at
• 12:28
  DraftKings and at circa 55% bets 61% dollars so.
• 12:33
  Michigan actually does have a. Low bets, higher dollar split at
• 12:37
  both DK and Circa in their favor.
• 12:39
  I mentioned earlier it's been a very chalky March Madness, so I
• 12:43
  I missed the days when it was dogs and unders and you always
• 12:46
  look forward to March Madness. Because you knew you'd.
• 12:47
  Make a killing again, maybe the nil and just the, you know,
• 12:51
  paying for players and the players going to the best teams.
• 12:53
  Maybe that's killed a lot of these dogs, but.
• 12:55
  Anyway, if you do like Michigan. This is in your favor.
• 12:59
  March Madness has been very chalky.
• 13:00
  Favorites are 36 and 30 against the spread. 55 percent, 5% ROI
• 13:05
  this year if you're a favorite of 6.5 points or more, so you're
• 13:09
  -6 1/2 or more those. Teams are 23 and 12 ATS 64.
• 13:13
  Percent, 23% ROI. If we isolate just the national
• 13:17
  championship. Game the Super Bowl of college
• 13:19
  basketball every year. The final game.
• 13:22
  We've seen favorites go 13. And seven against the spread.
• 13:24
  60. 5%, Twenty, 7% ROI in the national championship game.
• 13:29
  Now Ken Palm, our guy, he has Michigan.
• 13:32
  Winning by 7 points, which is. Exactly on the number here.
• 13:36
  So if we look at what the betting market is showing us in
• 13:40
  terms of splits in line. Movement.
• 13:42
  A contrarian opportunity with the line moving toward
• 13:45
  Connecticut tells me to play Connecticut.
• 13:48
  Now it's also a big shop for the best line opportunity because I
• 13:51
  still believe just when I started recording this pod
• 13:55
  there. Was some disagreement in the
• 13:57
  market because. There are a lot of books at
• 13:59
  Connecticut plus 6 1/2, but there are a few at +7, and there
• 14:02
  was. I think it was Kaushi.
• 14:04
  And FanDuel where Connecticut plus 7 1/2 around. -115 -, 120
• 14:10
  so if you want to go against the.
• 14:11
  Public If you want to follow the sharp line, move.
• 14:13
  Which I am. Inclined to do, although I must
• 14:16
  admit I've taken the dog plus the.
• 14:17
  Points against Michigan and they've.
• 14:19
  Taken me to the woodshed every single time.
• 14:21
  I feel like I'm thinking back to that Alabama game.
• 14:24
  But anyway. In that.
• 14:26
  Situation you can shop around and probably get Connecticut
• 14:29
  plus the hook plus 7 1/2. However, if you want to buy law
• 14:33
  on Michigan, because chalk has done so well this year as well
• 14:36
  as maybe a by law opportunity because this line has fallen,
• 14:40
  you can get -6 1/2. So regardless of what you end up
• 14:43
  doing, and I really can't argue either way, my style of betting
• 14:46
  tells me I'd probably lean Connecticut here because
• 14:49
  Michigan's the public play and lines kind of moving toward
• 14:51
  Connecticut. 7 1/2 makes sense, contrarian and heavily back
• 14:55
  game. But if you want to ride this
• 14:57
  chalk. Streak and Michigan is just too
• 14:59
  good. For the betting market, you want
• 15:01
  to get -6 1/2, you know that's available to you as well.
• 15:04
  Might be saying yourself, OK, Ken Palms got a 7, Martin, you
• 15:08
  know, lines basically six and a half, 777 and 1/2.
• 15:11
  What does rhythm have? Well, wouldn't you know it,
• 15:13
  rhythm has Michigan -6.9 and -7.3.
• 15:18
  So what I'm getting at when I teased that earlier to start the
• 15:20
  pod. Is that I don't see a clear play
• 15:23
  here. Again, my kind of love for.
• 15:25
  Going contrarian and sharp action tells me Connecticut.
• 15:28
  But then I don't have a Ken palm edge.
• 15:30
  Like it's not that Ken palm has a four point game or Rhythm says
• 15:33
  it should be 3.2. I don't have a rhythm edge.
• 15:36
  I don't have a Ken Palm edge. The splits actually look low,
• 15:38
  bets higher dollars toward Michigan, and chalk has done
• 15:41
  very well. So I'm going to do the same
• 15:43
  thing that I did. On Saturday, and you might have
• 15:45
  heard me talk about it on Friday's pod or at the rhythm
• 15:48
  rundown on Thursday, I'm not playing the side.
• 15:51
  I think you can make a case for both sides and as a sports
• 15:54
  better, you never want to just, you know, take a play because
• 15:57
  you lean or you want the action. Typically that's when you get in
• 15:59
  trouble here. So if you remember Michigan,
• 16:01
  Arizona, it might seem obvious why.
• 16:04
  Why wouldn't we just hammer Michigan?
• 16:06
  Well, if you remember, Michigan obviously rolled one by like 20
• 16:10
  points. But if you remember.
• 16:13
  Rhythm had a good. Edge on Arizona Plus 1 1/2.
• 16:16
  And even though Michigan dominated that game and.
• 16:18
  Destroyed Arizona. Did you guys notice where that
• 16:21
  line closed? It actually went back and closed
• 16:24
  at Arizona -1 1/2. So even though Arizona got blown
• 16:29
  out, rhythm, actually. Had a pretty good edge there
• 16:32
  they. Said take the 1 1/2 when Arizona
• 16:34
  closed -1 1/2 and the late movement went back toward
• 16:37
  Arizona. So just an example there of, you
• 16:40
  know, there wasn't a clear consensus.
• 16:42
  Yeah, smart money came back toward Arizona.
• 16:44
  Remember, Ken Palm had a one point win.
• 16:46
  That's another example of like, again, Michigan just being so
• 16:49
  good that the betting market maybe isn't, isn't, you know,
• 16:52
  correctly diagnosing Michigan. But if you remember in that
• 16:55
  game, mention it on the Friday pod and at the rhythm rundown.
• 16:59
  I said no clear edge on the side, but I want to play the
• 17:02
  total and back on Saturday took the over.
• 17:06
  In that game it was over 157 1/2.
• 17:09
  If you remember, rhythm had. Closer to a 160. 1.1 there was
• 17:14
  low bets, higher dollars. The total ticked up when you
• 17:16
  know it the over cash in that game.
• 17:18
  So I'm going to do the. Same thing for the.
• 17:19
  Championship game guys, my one best bet for tonight.
• 17:22
  If you want to join. Me.
• 17:24
  Is this over now let's talk about the over because it has
• 17:27
  moved quite a bit. Sharps have leaned over.
• 17:30
  How do we know that? Because.
• 17:31
  This total opened one. 43 1/2 when I woke.
• 17:34
  Up this morning it was 1. 44 1/2 and over the course.
• 17:38
  Of the morning and early. Afternoon.
• 17:40
  There wasn't. You know, a high.
• 17:41
  Watermark and it start started dropping again.
• 17:43
  No, there was. Further movement toward the
• 17:45
  over. So the over.
• 17:46
  Is now 145 1/2. So just from a betting market.
• 17:49
  Standpoint A line movement standpoint.
• 17:51
  The total has ticked up. Game day movement is critical.
• 17:54
  To me, biggest bets. Come in limits are raised so
• 17:57
  that 144 1/2 up to 145 1/2 today, that's kind of important
• 18:02
  tells me big money has. Continued to take the over.
• 18:05
  Even though they might have missed a better number earlier,
• 18:08
  you look at the splits. Here DK about 70% bets nearly
• 18:11
  80% of the. Dollars are on the over.
• 18:14
  I also got my e-mail from Bet MGM.
• 18:16
  They had 78% bets, nearly 90% dollars on the over.
• 18:20
  Michigan four and one to the over in the NCAA Tournament.
• 18:24
  They played five games they've. Averaged 94.4 points.
• 18:28
  Yes, I know. Uconn's a good defensive team,
• 18:30
  but. Michigan.
• 18:32
  They haven't scored below 90 points in any.
• 18:33
  Game in the tournament. Wolverines have some great
• 18:37
  offensive analytics. 4th in offensive.
• 18:39
  Efficiency 6th. In effective field goal
• 18:41
  percentage. 25th and three-point shooting. 4th in two point field
• 18:45
  goal. Percentage, our friend Ken Palm,
• 18:48
  he has a 147. So Ken Palm had Michigan winning
• 18:52
  77 to 70. Again, 7 point spread, which is
• 18:56
  right on the Vegas number, but 77 to 7 add them up, that's a
• 19:00
  147. So still value here, over 145
• 19:04
  1/2 now. We get to our.
• 19:06
  Rhythm recommendations. This is what?
• 19:08
  Gets me excited to play the over.
• 19:10
  I have three models on the over here they're all.
• 19:14
  They're all in the over. No conflicting underplays.
• 19:16
  First model has a predicted total of 148.6, Second model is
• 19:22
  1. 50. .5 third model is 149.5 so all three of my models are.
• 19:29
  Telling me to take the over. And again, if you remember on
• 19:32
  Saturday with Arizona, Michigan. That was over 150.
• 19:35
  Seven half and rhythm had like a 159.9, A 161.1.
• 19:40
  It was the same sort of thing where the market rose with with
• 19:43
  the total, the total went up. Same thing here with UConn.
• 19:45
  Michigan championship game The total.
• 19:47
  Went up. Including game day movement.
• 19:49
  But then rhythm had even a higher number predicted, so even
• 19:53
  though this number has risen. You know.
• 19:55
  You might be saying yourself. Oh, is there still value?
• 19:56
  145 1/2 on an open 143 1/2. Well, obviously.
• 20:00
  You would have liked to. Bet a better number, but rhythms
• 20:02
  got this. Closer to 15151 even.
• 20:06
  So that's my play here guys. I'm going over now.
• 20:09
  Here's the thing if you follow the ASG best bet picks.
• 20:13
  On the juice. Reel app I put this in.
• 20:16
  I think it was. Yesterday or two days ago.
• 20:18
  I got the over 143 1/2. And at the time it was -120 over
• 20:23
  and I did have an odds boost, I think it was with Fanatics
• 20:25
  maybe, and I got it or maybe Bally bet and I got it to 143
• 20:29
  1/2 / -, 110. So I'm.
• 20:31
  Holding a 143 1/2 / -, 110. If you haven't played it yet.
• 20:36
  You do have some. Opportunities here now, Caesars.
• 20:39
  And fanatics at the time of of this podcast right now are at
• 20:43
  1:40. Six FanDuel Bet, MGM, The Score,
• 20:47
  DraftKings and Bally Bet. Are all at 1:45 and 1/2, so
• 20:50
  here's where you got to do some. Homework with the juice FanDuel.
• 20:54
  Over 145 1/2 - 118 Bet MGM. Over 145 1/2 - 1. 15.
• 21:01
  The score formerly ESPN bet over 145 1/2 -, 110 Valley bet over
• 21:07
  145 1/2 - 114. So let's search for the lowest
• 21:11
  juice. There's one more book
• 21:13
  DraftKings. DraftKings is currently showing
• 21:15
  Connecticut and and Michigan over 145 1/2 at -1 O 8, so maybe
• 21:22
  you have an odds boost. Available to you?
• 21:24
  Maybe you can. Get a better price regardless,
• 21:27
  but your best number if you want to sweat this over with me would
• 21:30
  be at DraftKings over 145 1/2 -. 1 O 8 and remember totals ticked
• 21:34
  up. Game day movement is ticked up.
• 21:37
  Rhythm is predicting 1. 48.6150 point. 5149.5 S again you tell
• 21:44
  me you like Connecticut lines movement toward UConn even
• 21:46
  though Publix Michigan you tell me like Michigan.
• 21:49
  Well, you know, you're you're buying.
• 21:51
  Low on a? Really.
• 21:51
  Good team and Chalk has done really well this postseason and
• 21:54
  Michigan looks like a juggernaut.
• 21:56
  I see no clear edge because there's conflict.
• 21:59
  And again, when you're trying to place a bet, you always want to
• 22:02
  think like, like Saul Goodman, Better Call Saul, not in terms.
• 22:06
  Of doing shady, you know. Things as much as we.
• 22:08
  Love him. He broke a lot of unwritten
• 22:10
  rules, but you want to think of yourself as a lawyer building a
• 22:12
  case. And stacking so much.
• 22:15
  Evidence in One Direction. That you could convict the jury,
• 22:18
  or you could. You know, not convict, but you
• 22:21
  know, kind of convince a jury is the word I'm looking for to
• 22:25
  either, you know, clearly go. Guilty or not guilty?
• 22:28
  I can't clearly convince myself that either of these sides are
• 22:31
  the true sharp side based on all these analytics and market and
• 22:35
  and and discrepancies. But I can't convince myself of
• 22:38
  this. Overlooks pretty sharp tonight.
• 22:40
  So that's my one bet I'm going over again.
• 22:43
  I got over 143 1/2 but you can still get over 145 1/2.
• 22:47
  At a reduced. Juice minus one O 8 at
• 22:49
  DraftKings. Either way, let's get into the
• 22:52
  one 50s so everyone can cash this if they feel so inclined.
• 22:56
  So Joshua F, Scott Connecticut, Kenneth S and Nicholas L of
• 23:00
  Michigan, I'm laying off the side.
• 23:02
  I'm going over. That's what I'm looking at.
• 23:04
  In the championship game here. For tonight.
• 23:07
  So that about dozen. Guys, episode 480.
• 23:09
  Five of the all Systems go sports betting podcast.
• 23:11
  Is now in the books. As always, want to finish up the
• 23:14
  pod first by saying. Thank you.
• 23:16
  Thank you for listening, thank you for tuning in, thank you for
• 23:19
  grinding in the arena with me every single day, to the UPS and
• 23:22
  the downs. The good and the bad, the great
• 23:23
  wins, the terrible losses, the great backdoor covers, the bad
• 23:27
  beats. Just like in life, there's good
• 23:29
  days, bad days. Sports betting you got winning
• 23:31
  days you got losing days the great Billy Walters always
• 23:34
  mentioned that some days are are chicken and some days are
• 23:37
  feather. So chicken is, you know, a nice.
• 23:39
  Piece of meat. That you can, you know, bite
• 23:41
  into and have a winning day and feather is you got nothing to
• 23:43
  bite into. But as always, guys, we show up
• 23:46
  every day, try to make bets, data-driven bets, in their head
• 23:49
  and on our heart, and that's what I'm most proud of hosting
• 23:51
  this pod. So if you enjoy this pod, you
• 23:52
  want to help me grow this podcast please.
• 23:55
  Couple things you might want to think about doing Give this
• 23:57
  podcast a five star review on Spotify or iTunes.
• 24:01
  Leave a nice comment under the review section.
• 24:03
  Click the follow button. Recommend the pod to.
• 24:05
  A friend retweet. The pod when I put it out on
• 24:08
  Twitter every day at Josh under score insights Next.
• 24:11
  If you enjoy this style of sports betting, data-driven
• 24:14
  sharp contrarian betting focusing on line movement, bet
• 24:16
  split system matches taking a contrarian approach, this style
• 24:20
  betting has. Appealed to you.
• 24:21
  You want to learn more? About data-driven betting.
• 24:25
  Maybe have a friend or colleague or family member or someone you
• 24:27
  know who's trying to get into sports betting doesn't know.
• 24:29
  Where to begin? Or maybe.
• 24:30
  They bet a lot and they lose a lot because they're they're
• 24:33
  throwing darts based on gut instinct and bias.
• 24:36
  Well, you know what we should do?
• 24:37
  Go to Amazon.com. Type in the.
• 24:39
  Everything guide to sports betting.
• 24:40
  Or the NFL sharp betting playbook.
• 24:42
  Those are the two books that I've written.
• 24:44
  Very proud of both. If you want to grab one or both
• 24:46
  of them and give it a five star review and a nice little little
• 24:49
  comment on Amazon, I would love that.
• 24:52
  Then bring them the sports book. I'll sign them for you.
• 24:53
  I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale.
• 24:55
  Will root will root for points in the championship game tonight
• 24:58
  next. Have you downloaded?
• 24:59
  Rhythm and juice reel yet? My two favorite sports betting
• 25:02
  apps they. Help me win.
• 25:03
  They're going to help you win. They're just another box to
• 25:05
  check off to make sure you're on the sharp side.
• 25:08
  Rhythm great for their AI backed models and predictions for game
• 25:11
  bets and player props. Even though college basketball
• 25:14
  ends tonight, remember Rhythms got MLB systems lit up for you
• 25:18
  in prop bets and then also Juice Reel.
• 25:20
  So many great features of the juice.
• 25:21
  Reel app you can sync up your sports books.
• 25:24
  You make you sync up your books. You.
• 25:26
  Know you bet at whatever sports book you have synced up.
• 25:28
  It goes right to the juicer lap, keeps you honest, keeps the
• 25:31
  running record and profile of your action.
• 25:33
  You can also. Get the robo.
• 25:34
  Jackson best bet picks the AI driven plays that come out.
• 25:38
  Each day at noon you can also get the sharp mush indicators
• 25:41
  arbitrage. Plays shop for the best line
• 25:43
  futures and of course if you want to support the pod, I'm
• 25:46
  going to pass the hat. If you want to get the all
• 25:48
  systems go official best bet picks you can get them from the
• 25:50
  juicer lap. It cost you $4.99 a week, 5
• 25:54
  bucks for a. Full week, A week of.
• 25:56
  Plays and just consider this hopefully doesn't matter and the
• 26:00
  total flies over tonight but if you sign up to get those $4.99 a
• 26:03
  week best bets on juice real you would have gotten the alert on
• 26:06
  that over 143 1/2. What was it?
• 26:09
  A day 2 days ago so download rhythm download.
• 26:12
  Juice Real give them both a five star review in the App Store
• 26:15
  next. You have a live odds.
• 26:17
  Page. Well, if you don't.
• 26:17
  Have one you need. One, it's such a critical.
• 26:20
  Part of being a data. Driven better because it allows
• 26:22
  you to track the betting market in real time, you can.
• 26:25
  Quickly see all the games. Available to bet that day start
• 26:28
  times live. Scoring live in game wagering.
• 26:30
  Odds, but really it's about monitoring line.
• 26:32
  Movement. You get an opener.
• 26:34
  Column that never changes all the current odds to the right.
• 26:36
  You can see which direction the line is moved and by how much
• 26:39
  pull up the line. History.
• 26:40
  Steam starts to get hit. Boom.
• 26:42
  Like I was looking at the Odds logic live odds page earlier
• 26:44
  today when I was writing the article for vsend.com and I
• 26:48
  started to see every total for Michigan Yukon light up in red
• 26:52
  and I started to see all those 144 1/2 changed to 1:45 or 1:45
• 26:56
  and 1/2. That told me that Steam was.
• 26:58
  Coming in on the OVER. So if I hadn't bet it yet,
• 27:01
  that'll be an indicator that if you like the over, find a book.
• 27:04
  Still offering 140. 4 1/2 that hasn't moved yet.
• 27:06
  That's how it can help you win using odds logic.
• 27:10
  So if you'd like to give Odd Logic a shot, I highly recommend
• 27:13
  it. It's a great tool to track the
• 27:15
  market and I have a special link for.
• 27:17
  You if you go to. Oddslogic.com slash.
• 27:21
  Josh, 123. That's going to give.
• 27:22
  You a 7 day free trial. And 50% off your first month of
• 27:26
  service. Next, have you downloaded Profit
• 27:28
  X yet? Profit X is a sports.
• 27:31
  Betting exchange that I've partnered.
• 27:32
  With because help betters win and anytime I partner with
• 27:36
  something I do it because I believe in the product and I
• 27:39
  know it helps me win. So therefore I want to help
• 27:41
  other people win. Whole point with profit X is
• 27:43
  that. Because it's a betting exchange,
• 27:45
  you're going to get way better juice.
• 27:46
  Prices because you're not going up against the the sports books
• 27:50
  we're forcing you to pay. -115. -120.
• 27:53
  You're going up in exchange. Against other betters.
• 27:55
  So therefore you don't have to lay as as big of juice.
• 27:59
  So basically. You can win at the.
• 28:00
  Same rate but make more. Money because you're going.
• 28:03
  Going up against other betters, so for example.
• 28:05
  I'm looking at the total here. We mentioned the total.
• 28:08
  It's 146 at. Profit X but it's minus one O 2
• 28:11
  / -1 O1 under I'm looking at the side right now it's 6 1/2 on
• 28:16
  both sides but it's. Huskies.
• 28:18
  Plus 6 1/2. Plus one O 2 Wolverines. -6 1/2
• 28:22
  - 1 O 7 So if you like the and actually just changed so now it
• 28:27
  is plus 7 - 1 O 9 Huskies minus and it's actually going back and
• 28:31
  forth kind of crazy. I'm literally watching action
• 28:34
  come in and move this number, but either way you get the
• 28:37
  point. You're going to be laying. -1 O
• 28:39
  5 - 1 O 4 getting plus one O 2 plus one O 5.
• 28:43
  You're getting better juice prices therefore you can turn a
• 28:45
  bigger profit because you're not.
• 28:47
  You're basically getting more on the back end with dogs and
• 28:50
  favorites as well because you're not laying as much.
• 28:53
  Vague. So go download Profit X and use
• 28:55
  the promo code Josh. They'll tack on an extra 20%
• 28:59
  deposit match. So that about does it for
• 29:01
  episode 485. It was all March Madness today,
• 29:04
  guys. Thank you as always for tuning
• 29:05
  in to final thoughts one whether I.
• 29:07
  See you at the Borgata. In Atlantic City, Twin River In
• 29:10
  Rhode Island, Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods.
• 29:12
  Or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the.
• 29:14
  Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park Casino, MGM Springfield or
• 29:17
  the Nash and my neck of the woods on the border of
• 29:19
  Massachusetts in New Hampshire. We're out in the desert where
• 29:22
  the true grinders get down. Where Billy Walter sends his
• 29:25
  number runners with lowest juice possible is found at the South
• 29:28
  Point or Sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
• 29:31
  stadium swim pool when you catch a big ticket at Circa.
• 29:34
  Wherever it is, hopefully at the end.
• 29:35
  Of the night you're going to walk up to me and show me an
• 29:37
  over ticket for the national championship game.
• 29:41
  But either way, guys. Coming off a winning night,
• 29:43
  losing night, hot streak, cold streak, great weekend, terrible
• 29:45
  weekend. You just got to stick with it.
• 29:47
  Never get too high when things are going well, never get too
• 29:50
  low and down in the dumps when things aren't going our way.
• 29:53
  So we can say discipline with our bankroll management, play
• 29:55
  the system matches that are clear, avoid the ones that have
• 29:58
  red flags and look for games that fit our model, games that
• 30:01
  are against the public with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
• 30:04
  avoid parlays and get that closing.
• 30:06
  Line value. If we can do that, we're going
• 30:08
  to be successful. Sports manners.
• 30:10
  So hope everyone has a great championship game here.
• 30:12
  For tonight, enjoy it guys. After that, it's going to be all
• 30:15
  baseball, wall to wall all the time.
• 30:18
  But again, good luck to Joshua F on Connecticut, Kenneth S and
• 30:21
  Nicholas L on Michigan. We're going to find out who
• 30:24
  takes home A. Few G's tonight.
• 30:27
  So I know they'll be they'll be biting their fingers watching
• 30:29
  this game, but good luck everybody.
• 30:31
  I'll see you tomorrow for episode. 486 of the All Systems
• 30:35
  Go sports betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 30:39
  Good luck everybody and enjoy the national championship.