Latest / Merryn Talks Money / Markets Weekly: AI Sparks Market Rotation, UK Political Risk, and the Pensions Property Debate

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Markets Weekly: AI Sparks Market Rotation, UK Political Risk, and the Pensions Property Debate · Merryn Talks Money

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Welcome to the Merin
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Talks Money Market Rap, where we talk about the biggest
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: moves in the markets this week and what's driving them.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: I'm Merrin Sumset, web Editor at Large for Bloomberg UK.
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: Wells, I'm joined Steppeg, senior reporter at Bloomberg and author
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: is the Money Distilled newsletter.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Right, John, Sometimes we look at each other and me go, well,
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: what is the most important thing happening this week? What
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: is the big mover? And you know, the last couple
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: of weeks, months has been bitcoing, gold, silver, blah blah.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: But this week it's pretty obvious what's going on. Right,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: The rotation that we've been expecting for ages, that we've
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: been talking about on the podcast, on this bit of
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: the podcast with endless guests, it's finally upon us. And
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I know you've written about that this week, so I'm
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: just going to hand this all over to you. Tell
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: us about the rotation.
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: Ah, the rotation, of course. No, this is really actually
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: pretty interesting because what's happened is that companies that are
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: going to be potentially disrupted by AI have been sort
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: of struggling for about a year now but nothing major,
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: just drifting lower. And then last week one of the
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: big EI companies, Inthropic, released a kind of legal tool,
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: and then this week another one released like an insurance
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: comparison to and there was a financial services one as well,
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: And so basically suddenly all of these big stocks that
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: are in these areas have been whacked for about you know,
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: ten to fifteen percent in some cases, and almost anything
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: that has any kind of platform or kind of digital
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: exposure that could potentially get disrupted by AI is saying
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: what I would say, to be honest at this point
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: is kind of an indiscriminate sell of I mean, we're
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: looking at you know, the London Stock Exchange Group relics,
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: the kind of which owns Lexis next is a big
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: legal database. Things also like auto trade and right Move
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: money supermarket, the comparison say, anything like that is all
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: being sold off quite heavily. And of course the flip
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: side is that anything I guess, I mean, it's very
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: tech boom, isn't it, because anything old economy is going up, so,
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: you know, kind of minors commodities. One of the big
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: gainers this year has been Weird group in the food
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: say that's an engineer and the mining kind of services manufacturer.
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: So yeah, so basically it's all been.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: So basically, if I were to sum this up, yes,
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: in the past, the market was going up a lot
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: because AI might work, and now lots of stuff is
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: going down because it's going to work.
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: Yes, I think that's true. I think that's true because
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: I think a lot of these companies were assumed, they
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: was assumed in some way AI they would exploit AI.
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: And now people are starting to wake up to the
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: fact that, well, actually maybe they get destroyed by AI.
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: And the answer is probably saw me on the medal.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: So we are effectively the market is thinking we're leapfrog
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: leapfrogging a whole stage here, because initially the idea was, well,
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: isn't this great. It's going to increase everyone's productivity and
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: all legal firms and all this kind of thing. We'll
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: get a massive productivity boot from it, and that's marvelous.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Now there is no productivity boost for these firms. There's
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: just other companies doing what they do much better using AI.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: I mean I was interested in the wealth managers one.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Today you know, Wealth Managers has had quite sell off
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: on on the basis of this as well, on the
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: basis that you know you don't need a person anymore
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: to run through your bank accounts and your tax returns
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: and make you a better tax strategy. Although then I
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: thought to myself, I'm like, God, well this is this is,
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: this is the thing. We'll finally drive governments to say,
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: well that's it. No more, no more AI, no more
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: of this research you, no more experiension we have done here.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: If this is gonna suddenly teach you all how to
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: do your taxes better, we don't want to hear any
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: more about it. But that's another podcast.
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And also you may gets the ex points of
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: the I that gives you sort of the sort of
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: acceptable tax planning as opposed to proper tax planning, which
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: is to minimize your liability.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: All this may also be the removal of tax evasion.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Of course, that's the other thing. If you can use
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: some type of AI to run through everybody's expenditure and
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: income and how many vaping shops everyone owns and that
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: kind of thing, you may get out the other other
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: end of it with higher tax revenues. I don't know,
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: just thinking aloud here, anyway, I feel they.
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: Can already do a lot of these things, but maybe
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: it will make h MRC productivity Cowork.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Well, you could do it. You could do it with
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: fewer people and also possibly if someone could answer the
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: phone HMR see, that would be a massive bonus too. Now, listen,
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: this rotation is not just about sectors. It's also about countries.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: So we're seeing, for example, markets have had one of
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: their best starts to the year, and over well over
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: twenty years, twenty twenty five years, Europe of course, building
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: well UK Nick all right, but you would think that
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: the shift from soft stuff to hard stuff would be
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: certainly forty one hundred positive. Although we should also say
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: that only today we've lost yet another member of the
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: forty one hundred Strowed is being being brought up by
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: an American company and taken off market, although we gather
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: as a I will still get to be the London
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: headquarters for their new owners. So that that's nice.
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: It's nice centrist nudge because the timing of these deals
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: is sort of typical. Weirdly enough as well, because not
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: Waste but Eveling, which is a privately ow kind of
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: tax wealth manager type company. It's interesting that you know,
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: they're doing this just as these business mortals are potentially
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: coming under from AI.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: It's interesting, isn't it. We had Eveling going at that
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: very high price a matter of hours, matter of hours
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: for wealth management share prices veeldrum on the basis that
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: we don't need them anymore.
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and then I think, I mean, maybe that's just
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: your standard top of the market stuff, but I think
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: that was actually quite unexpected. I mean the other thing
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: about this, and I don't know this is slightly changing
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: the subject, but it's how much of this is hype
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: and how much of it is real? And I'm completely
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: torn about this.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Well, I think you're a non believer, John. This is
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: like even bitcot in. You know, you just can't get
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: out of the line of technology, can't you.
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: Well asking, I'm very aware of my own limitations from
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: that point of view. Otherwise I probably would be more
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: skeptical than am. But no, I mean, like to be fair,
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: to talk to software guys sometimes and they do make
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: the point. No, this has been changing our business for
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: a long time now, like probably like at least eighteen months,
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: so it does seem clear that there's quite a big
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: potential thing going to happen. Equally, it's also true that
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: the AI companies have got a lot of incentive to
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: keep the hype cycle going as aggressive.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Yes, I mean they're spending two percent in the US,
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: that that small handful of companies. They're spending two percent
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: of American GDP on Capex this year.
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, exactly. So all of these bits on social
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: media and all the rest to talk about how you
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: know the end of the world's about to come more,
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: you know your job's going to get swept away and
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: you need to prepare her now. And also you need
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: to subscribe to your nearest you know, chat, GPT or
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: Claude or whatever is.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: Everyone else is using it. I hear everyone else is
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: using it. Exactly. It's not like the adoption of cars
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: or the Internet. It's very very sudden.
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: Maybe it is, yeah, I mean, but certainly it's interested.
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: It's definitely the market appears to have just had a
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: proper moment this week where it's going, actually, oh my god,
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: this is real. We need to start thinking about where
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: we're going to put our money.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: But interestingly, with the with the with the fact that
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: this is a rotation not a crash, you have the
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: s and P five under pretty much flat.
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that's I mean, that's the other kind
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: of nice thing about it. The nice thing about it
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: is that if you are kind of fuck slightly lazy,
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: kind of passive or index investor, then there's not actually
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: having that much effect, don't you because.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: You might not have noticed the index investor has got
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: away with it again, Yeah, exactly.
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: I mean. The one thing I do think is that
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: because the US is more has more of these stocks,
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: it does make the argument for moving more money out
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: of the US again. So from that point of view,
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: you know, yeah, maybe the index investor does have to
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: pay a bit more attention, but it's not a crash
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: as such as kind of a sector slump.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Well, that's what I was about to come to, this
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: matter of the rotation and actually help We've got a
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: very good podcast coming up about Asian markets and with
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: particular reference for Southeast Asian markets, which is really interesting,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: and I will write a little bit about that for
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: subscribers only, just to be clear in my newsletter this week.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: And also I was going to write a little bit
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: about whether it really is time to allocate a little
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: bit of money to Africa markets. Quite a few ETFs
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: that cover Africa as a whole line. I know that
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: it's a very big place and there's a lot going on,
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: But there is an argument made in a just did Well,
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: a new book, that Africa as a whole has finally
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: reached the level of population density that Asia hit when
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: it's miracle growth began. Quite interesting, not the way that
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: I've looked at things before. I think about demography a lot,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: but I hadn't looked at the population density comparison between
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: Asia and Africa and how that makes a big difference.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna read about that this week too, if I
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: get around to it, which I probably will. But the
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: place that I wanted to talk about was the UK.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: You and I have for a long time been so
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: positive on not the UK in every way, but certainly
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: on UK stock markets, and what we have said over
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: and over again is yeah, there's a lot of political
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: kales in the UK. There's a lot going on. GDP
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: growth is appalling, gdpeep Ahead is a mess, the culture
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: wars are all over the shop housing market is a mess,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: fiscal position is a mess. But yes, UK equities are
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: cheap and there are some great companies in there, and
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: you mustn't confuse the macro world and the corporate world,
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: and you mustn't confuse GDP growth with valuations, all different things. Therefore,
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: it's perfectly reasonable to buy into the UK now. My worry,
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: My worry is I'm going to put smaller and smaller
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: companies aside for now because they're still phenomenally cheap. But
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: up at the higher end, the UK's had a good
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: year last year, good start to this year. For two
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: one hundred is not insanely expensive, not even expensive and
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: relative terms, it's still very cheap in relative terms. But
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: is it cheap enough now, cheap enough to discount the
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: level of ares and chaos among the ruling classes?
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think that's a really good question, and
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: I think it's a tricky one. I'd probably feel reasonably
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: confident about the foot say one hundred still being okay
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: because an awful lot you know, there's only so much
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: that the UK government can do to damage those companies
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: because so much of the money comes from overseas. And
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: also and there is you know, with a great rotation
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: going on. If that continues, an awful lot of the
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: stocks in the foot SAE one hundred, there's prime candidates
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: for benefit from that, because there's resources, there's oil companies,
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: there's drug manufacturers that show but.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: What about flows here? I am I'm sitting in the US,
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: I'm as an institutional far manager. I'm looking around the
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: world and I'm going, oh yeah, Japan, that's going in
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: the right direction. Now. Some of those agent economies, they're
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: looking pretty pretty tipperty top Europe. I don't know, but
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: at least they haven't had four prime ministers in the
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: last ten minutes, and at least they're not about to
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: do what it looks like we're about to do in
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: the UK. We just take another great stumble over to
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: the left at a point when we've talked about this before,
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: you and I about the social attitude surveys, right, And
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: I'm always looking at the Social Attitude Survey very interested
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: and happenings one in Scotland and one in England, and
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: you can see the differences of opinion between the two
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: regions and all that fascinating stuff. Everyone's go and read
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: these things. And this year, you know, it's really hard
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: to get the electorate in the UK, really hard to
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: get them to say that they would like to see
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: less tax and less spending, that just doesn't happen. That
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: not the kind of people. We are, no British values,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: we're kind of people, right. And so normally if you
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: ask people that question, do you want to see lower
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: tacks and spending? It is always under ten percent, always, often,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: historically has been looking around three four five percent. That's
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: just not what people think. It has never gone above
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: ten percent until the last three years, and now it's
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: nearly twenty. Wow.
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: That is a big There comes a point.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: When you know you've got this, this division you have
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: between the electorate and the people they elected is getting
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: weirdly wide.
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: I don't think your star mout can survive because I
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: think that the authority is nonexistent and eventually somebody will
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: get kind of short of them. Does the party then
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: swing left, I mean fro probably So no, I mean
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: that is a big risk. And you're I mean in
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: relative terms, I think Japan suddenly does look very politically
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: attractive compared to you know, if you are a US
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: manage and looking at go elsewhere. At the same time, again,
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: the one and only thing I would kind of say
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: is that the each of the companies own the one specifically,
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: the fact that the UK is still one of the
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: biggest markets in the world in terms of you know MSCI. Yeah,
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: that is I think we are too big to ignore.
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: From a Flowers point of view, if you're going to
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: get out, and.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: I think you're you're probably right to a degree, which
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: is that as money moves out of the US, it
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: might not be the analysis might not be market specific.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: It might just be a rebalancing across the board. And
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: then we should also say, of course, the UK smaller
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: mid cap companies are still ridiculously, remarkably extraordinarily cheap, although
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: perhaps we're getting close to the bit where we might
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: have to file that under cheap. For a reason, we're
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: feeling a little defeats today. All this time we've been
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: bullished on the UK, tried so hard. Maybe this marks
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: the bottom. Maybe we've got the end of the chaos
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: and everything. We'll be fine from it here. Is there
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: anything else we you should say, John.
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: The only other thing you should maybe talk about is
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: pensions and property. But maybe we should see that.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: Yes, I'm not I didn't know. Maybe you shouldn't have
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: pressed that button. I just want to say very simple thing,
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: which there's an article in one of the big newspapers
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: this week about how it is time that people are
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: allowed to withdraw money from their pension early to put
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: down as a deposit on a house. And I would
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: just like to say that if you take money from
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: a pension early, it is not a pension, it is
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: a savings account. And the whole point of a pension
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: is that you do not access it for any reason
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: at will ever until you hit pensionable age. And that
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: is why, because we do not allow it. This is
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: why the UK has pension assets actual tangible assets as
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: percentative GDP knocking around eighty percent, and why every other
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: economy around the G seven, OECD, EU whatever rarely goes
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: above ten percent. That makes our pension system safe and
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: their pension system dangerous and we shouldn't mess it up.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: Can you just agree with the jong system is very important.
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: I agree with you. I'm sure we may find.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: Great but we will find a way to mess it
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: up if we if we interrupt it. And the one
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: thing that the UK has, the one excellent set of
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: policy choices made by otherwise idiotic politicians over the last
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: couple of decades, has been around the pension system. I mean,
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: there are mess ups around the dB system, around you know,
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: what they can and should invest in, how they should
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: and can invest and around you know, the removal of
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: the dividend tax credit under Gordon Brown and all that
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: sort of thing. Not perfect, but nonetheless that solid group
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: of assets inside the dB system and the solid group
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: of assets inside our new DC system with self assessment.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: It's self assessment. That's not what I meant.
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: You know what I meant, tax on the brain.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: A tax on the brain.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: I know.
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: It's a good system and it's one that will continue
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: to be able to pay out even our for the
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: government has gone bust, and you can't say that for
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: European systems. If you'll let people start taking money out early,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: you ruin the whole thing, and anything you can withdraw
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: money from before you hit pension will as just to repeat,
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: not a pension. That's all got on off my chest.
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: Thanks thanks for reminding me how irritated I was about that,
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: John right, Thank you for that. We will leave it
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: there before here gets me going on something else. Thanks
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: for listening to this week's maryn Talks Money Debrieve. If
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: you'll like us, show, rate review and subscribe wherever you
• 17:33
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• 17:35
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• 17:37
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