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Has Crypto Market Bottomed?📈Bitcoin Recovery · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:07
Speaker 1: Is crypto in recovery right now? Well, today we'll break
0:09
Speaker 1: it down for you, give you a full understanding of
0:11
Speaker 1: where the market is going. My name is Paul Barren.
0:13
Speaker 1: Welcome back into tech Path. I want to thank our
0:15
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0:18
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0:20
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0:23
Speaker 1: do that. And if you're brand new, and I know
0:24
Speaker 1: there's a lot of audience that is joining our show
0:27
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0:31
Speaker 1: there's a lot of new people out there watching us.
0:34
Speaker 1: Make sure and check out Coinbase, get your first account
0:36
Speaker 1: set up where you can go out and buy your
0:37
Speaker 1: first crypto. Then you can kind of explore all the
0:40
Speaker 1: other aspects of crypto, but get started. Use our link
0:43
Speaker 1: down below to give you two hundred bucks in crypto
0:45
Speaker 1: to get moving. All right, a couple of things I
0:47
Speaker 1: want to hit on here today. Of course, this week
0:50
Speaker 1: is a data packed week. Today was PPI, tomorrow's CPI.
0:55
Speaker 1: Later in the week we're gonna have rate retail sales,
0:57
Speaker 1: plus we have bank earnings, all kinds of stuff that
0:59
Speaker 1: are hitting the mark. And of course bitcoin did make
1:01
Speaker 1: a recovery yesterday, and Kobeci kind of hits it right here.
1:05
Speaker 1: December PPI inflation rises three point three, below expectations of
1:08
Speaker 1: three point five. That's a big win for inflation core
1:12
Speaker 1: PPI rising to three point five where expectations were around
1:17
Speaker 1: three point eight. That's another factor, smaller increase than expected.
1:21
Speaker 1: But PPI inflation now at its highest since February twenty
1:23
Speaker 1: twenty three. That's the only downside to this. Now, remember
1:27
Speaker 1: that CPI is the real indicator tomorrow that'll be releasing.
1:32
Speaker 1: We'll do a video on that to give you guys
1:34
Speaker 1: some insight to it. What I would just be cautious
1:37
Speaker 1: of is understand if if inflation comes in hotter and
1:40
Speaker 1: I'll show you a chart here in a minute, this
1:43
Speaker 1: could have a little bit of an impact right before
1:46
Speaker 1: Trump's inauguration, and then after that.
1:49
Speaker 2: I think we're going to be in a position.
1:51
Speaker 1: Where we'll see a lot of opportunity because there's going
1:53
Speaker 1: to be a huge narrative starting to paint out. Another
1:55
Speaker 1: thing I want to hit on right here is the
1:57
Speaker 1: CPI report comes in tomorrow at eight thirty, so it'll
1:59
Speaker 1: being the wires first thing in the morning. I imagine
2:03
Speaker 1: watch for some late trading today. If you see some
2:07
Speaker 1: big interesting trades this afternoon. The data has leaked, and
2:11
Speaker 1: that's something that we've complained about for quite some time.
2:13
Speaker 1: But economists right now are expecting a point three monthly
2:16
Speaker 1: CPI increase and a two point nine annual inflation.
2:20
Speaker 2: Here's what could happen.
2:21
Speaker 1: If that goes to a point four, will stick us
2:23
Speaker 1: over the three percent range, and that would be a
2:27
Speaker 1: very significant problem for the just inflation as a whole.
2:32
Speaker 1: But inflation cools between two point eight, Fed pauses rate
2:36
Speaker 1: hikes s and p goes you know, plus up point
2:39
Speaker 1: and a half to two bearish. If inflation above forecast,
2:42
Speaker 1: that's the three percent range that I'm really talking about.
2:44
Speaker 1: That's where the Fed will possibly hint more hikes. And
2:48
Speaker 1: I think remember we have the FOMC later this month,
2:51
Speaker 1: so look for that. And I just want to go
2:53
Speaker 1: to true inflation real quick, just to show you. This
2:56
Speaker 1: is the sixth month chart what we're looking at right here.
3:00
Speaker 1: We go back here in September mid September, we were
3:03
Speaker 1: setting it around one point seven. Today we are at
3:05
Speaker 1: three point three three. That is almost double what we've
3:10
Speaker 1: been looking at in terms of just inflation in general. Now,
3:14
Speaker 1: when you spread it out and you look at the
3:16
Speaker 1: one year, you can see that dip, but we've almost
3:19
Speaker 1: completely revamped all the way back into April of twenty
3:22
Speaker 1: four when we really had hit the peak. And then
3:25
Speaker 1: you look at the performance of what we've seen over
3:29
Speaker 1: quite some time. And I think the scenario right now
3:32
Speaker 1: is very significant to where the future of CPI is
3:37
Speaker 1: going to be going because this will affect the FED
3:39
Speaker 1: in terms of rate cuts, either slow them down or
3:41
Speaker 1: possibly even get into a rate race position. With all
3:45
Speaker 1: that being said, black Rock is now advertising its bitcoin
3:48
Speaker 1: ETF on its home page, and maybe they know something
3:51
Speaker 1: because if you anticipate a lot of this, what you
3:54
Speaker 1: would look at is if rates go up, we're probably
3:58
Speaker 1: going to see some weakness in the dollar. Are the
4:00
Speaker 1: alternative assets could play into this? And of course black
4:03
Speaker 1: Rock right there. I want to go to a clip
4:05
Speaker 1: real quick. This is one of their analysts kind of
4:07
Speaker 1: breaking this down.
4:07
Speaker 2: Take a look.
4:08
Speaker 3: I mean, the first thing you say, man, that employment
4:09
Speaker 3: number on Friday was pretty powerful and it led to
4:13
Speaker 3: this belief and looking at when you look at the
4:15
Speaker 3: confluence of data that's come out, you got economy that's
4:17
Speaker 3: operating a pretty strong level. You're still operating year on
4:20
Speaker 3: year core CPI at three plus percent, and core PCEE
4:25
Speaker 3: we think's going to run mid to high twos for
4:27
Speaker 3: most of the year. Feds still, you know, in a
4:29
Speaker 3: tough spot. Unless employment starts to soften, You've got rates
4:32
Speaker 3: that aren't going to come down from here of any
4:34
Speaker 3: significant magnitude. So you think about what what longer bonds are.
4:38
Speaker 3: And if you said, I've got two assets I can
4:39
Speaker 3: hold that have long duration, I can own equities or
4:41
Speaker 3: I can own bonds bonds even at five percent, you know,
4:45
Speaker 3: I'm thinking, like, what is my upside downside you've got.
4:48
Speaker 3: So you think about Mega Cap. They're throwing a thirty
4:50
Speaker 3: percent return on equity if I'm going to hold those
4:52
Speaker 3: for two years, three years, five years, and they buy
4:54
Speaker 3: back a huge amount of their stock so they shrink
4:56
Speaker 3: the denominated their book equity. So I can own that
4:59
Speaker 3: and com pound thirty percent plus even with multiples that
5:03
Speaker 3: are not cheap, or I can own long treasuries. I
5:06
Speaker 3: still think if you look at tech and the return
5:08
Speaker 3: on equity, the stock buyback and the amount of cash
5:11
Speaker 3: that's out there, pretty hard to see the equity market
5:15
Speaker 3: not finding its footing and having a decent year, not
5:17
Speaker 3: like last year.
5:18
Speaker 1: All right, So as you can see, it's still very
5:20
Speaker 1: bullish going into the equity market. That of course will
5:22
Speaker 1: play positive for crypto in general. And I also think
5:25
Speaker 1: that crypto plays even on the negative side because an
5:28
Speaker 1: escape from cash into something that is an asset, whether
5:31
Speaker 1: it's a risk asset or we get into something like equities.
5:35
Speaker 1: Going forward, I think this is going to play out
5:38
Speaker 1: very interesting as we see inflation hold the line, and
5:42
Speaker 1: I believe.
5:43
Speaker 2: That it will.
5:43
Speaker 1: So that's a big factor here Trump and of course
5:46
Speaker 1: bitcoin and crypto will skyrocket like never before. Many people
5:48
Speaker 1: were kind of expecting this six days till the administration
5:52
Speaker 1: takes office, and I would imagine we are going to
5:55
Speaker 1: see an immediate impact because of the amount of executive
5:58
Speaker 1: orders and also shifts totory environment for crypto in general.
6:02
Speaker 1: So all that very positive. The real question is whether
6:05
Speaker 1: or not this is priced in, And I think you
6:07
Speaker 1: know that's the thing you have to ask yourself. Many
6:10
Speaker 1: people would look at this and say, hey, Paul, it's
6:11
Speaker 1: a little bit priced in here, But there's a lot
6:13
Speaker 1: of people that still believe that these pro policies are
6:17
Speaker 1: still at the very beginning of where we're going to
6:19
Speaker 1: see the cycle go.
6:20
Speaker 2: So a couple of points in this article.
6:24
Speaker 1: You could have bought bitcoin in around thirty five that
6:26
Speaker 1: was before the ETF approval, that goes all the way
6:28
Speaker 1: back at the end of twenty three, and people would say, well,
6:31
Speaker 1: it's priced in, but it's almost three times that price
6:33
Speaker 1: right now. So that's the same logic that they're kind
6:35
Speaker 1: of looking at because of the good news narrative that
6:38
Speaker 1: is going to paint out in this administration over the
6:41
Speaker 1: next twelve months. Let's go to another breakdown, because when
6:45
Speaker 1: you look at bitcoin, you have to look at how
6:47
Speaker 1: it affects the rest of the crypto markets, including all
6:50
Speaker 1: coins and also just the innovation that's happening around blockchain.
6:53
Speaker 1: But here's a clip that kind of sets bitcoin in
6:55
Speaker 1: a different tone.
6:56
Speaker 2: Take a look.
6:57
Speaker 4: What happened last week though, was its first wheely big
7:00
Speaker 4: daily outflow. Three hundred and thirty seven million came out.
7:03
Speaker 4: I think all of the bitcoinytfs in total are probably
7:06
Speaker 4: negative two or three billion since middle of December. And
7:10
Speaker 4: now these are financial assets, so I don't know that
7:14
Speaker 4: they'll be much less correlated than they used to be
7:18
Speaker 4: relative to the stock market. I think on risk off
7:20
Speaker 4: days they'll be treated like risk assets, which is what
7:23
Speaker 4: they are. So it's great, it's democratized. Everybody could buy it.
7:27
Speaker 4: It's easy. But remember what that means is the money
7:30
Speaker 4: comes out easily also, and that is a little bit
7:33
Speaker 4: of a change from where we were prior to these
7:36
Speaker 4: ETFs with those as large they have, with.
7:38
Speaker 2: Those outflows have been on long term taxable gains. It
7:41
Speaker 2: was open a year.
7:41
Speaker 5: Would that have anything to potentially do with doutflows?
7:44
Speaker 4: I doubt it. I doubt most of the money that
7:46
Speaker 4: came out of the stock necessarily went in precisely one
7:50
Speaker 4: year to the day or one year and one day
7:52
Speaker 4: from the launch, but probably some Look, we don't know
7:57
Speaker 4: how these things are going to trade relative to the market.
8:00
Speaker 4: All we can say now is they are now part
8:02
Speaker 4: of the mainstream market. They're in people's brokerage accounts, and
8:06
Speaker 4: that's got really great attributes to it, and it also
8:09
Speaker 4: has potentially negative attributes to it.
8:12
Speaker 1: This is interesting to hear the mainstream Wall Street talk
8:16
Speaker 1: about we don't really understand how this is going to trade,
8:18
Speaker 1: and when you look at main street, Wall Street and
8:22
Speaker 1: how they've cycled this because remember, Fidelity is holding bitcoin
8:25
Speaker 1: and eth right now, you can go into your Fidelity account,
8:27
Speaker 1: transfer right out of money market directly into crypto, and
8:31
Speaker 1: hold it there, make a trade on it, same thing,
8:34
Speaker 1: and that's a direct access to the asset. Now, grant
8:36
Speaker 1: you can't move it in and out, but it is
8:38
Speaker 1: direct asss it's not an ETF. So I think that's
8:42
Speaker 1: the factor that's playing into this, because this is really
8:44
Speaker 1: the first true cycle that we've seen access to bitcoin
8:48
Speaker 1: and eth the way it is happening now from Wall Street.
8:51
Speaker 1: The other thing that plays into this is the banks.
8:54
Speaker 1: Here's a statement by Eleanor she hits on one statement
8:57
Speaker 1: by President ELEC. Trump, and he's basically saying, hey, I'm
9:00
Speaker 1: going to repeal the crypto accounting policy that requires banks
9:04
Speaker 1: holding digital assets account a's liabilities. We've already seen this
9:07
Speaker 1: the fasby change already, and that's how businesses hold digital
9:11
Speaker 1: assets no longer as a liability. If this plays out
9:14
Speaker 1: with banks, then they do pull back because this is
9:16
Speaker 1: essentially SAB twenty one uh one twenty one. If this
9:19
Speaker 1: plays out, imagine this, because you've got bank reports coming in,
9:24
Speaker 1: earnings coming in this week, I anticipate there could be
9:28
Speaker 1: a little pressure on banks, and if there is, they're
9:31
Speaker 1: going to be looking for new products, new services.
9:34
Speaker 2: And if this.
9:35
Speaker 1: Pulls the trigger from this administration that banks can now
9:38
Speaker 1: get into the game. Wow, we could see something move
9:41
Speaker 1: very quickly from some of the major banks out there,
9:44
Speaker 1: So be on the lookout for that.
9:46
Speaker 2: All that being said, you've got.
9:48
Speaker 1: To put a little bit of negative into the soup.
9:51
Speaker 1: And then of course comes from Senator Warren. She sends
9:54
Speaker 1: a thirty one page letter over to the new Treasury
9:57
Speaker 1: Secretary nominee Scott Best. Obviously he has to get approved,
10:00
Speaker 1: but likelihood is best and will be the new Secretary
10:04
Speaker 1: of Treasury.
10:04
Speaker 2: So this would be a big deal.
10:07
Speaker 1: And again, you know, when you look at what Warren
10:10
Speaker 1: is doing, she is just repositioning very hard, saying, hey,
10:13
Speaker 1: we understand you don't have a lot of expertise in
10:15
Speaker 1: government blah blah blah, but he has a lot of
10:18
Speaker 1: expertise in running asset rich businesses, and I think that's
10:23
Speaker 1: something that the US Treasury can use right now, not
10:26
Speaker 1: a politician going forward. So all right, so I'm going
10:28
Speaker 1: to go to a few clips here, and this is
10:31
Speaker 1: Gary Gensler. He's making his exit interview, but he's doing
10:34
Speaker 1: it as a media tour, and he has a lot
10:37
Speaker 1: of interesting points to make, and I'll kind of give
10:39
Speaker 1: you guys some assessment on these, but let's go to
10:41
Speaker 1: this first clip.
10:43
Speaker 5: When you look back at the work that you did
10:46
Speaker 5: over the last four years, and you also look at
10:49
Speaker 5: this election, specifically this election, and you look at the
10:53
Speaker 5: number of folks in the crypto world who ultimately turned
10:57
Speaker 5: out not just turned out for President elect Trump, but
11:02
Speaker 5: turned out for President elect Trump with money, with dollars.
11:05
Speaker 5: The huge amount of money that went into effectively his
11:08
Speaker 5: campaign as to some degree a rebuke of what was
11:13
Speaker 5: happening with your efforts to block some of the things
11:19
Speaker 5: that they were doing. I'm so curious how you personally
11:23
Speaker 5: think about that today.
11:25
Speaker 6: I believe deeply an great democracy. I think that this election,
11:30
Speaker 6: though as you point out, there was money raised from
11:35
Speaker 6: the crypto field, I don't think that's what this election
11:37
Speaker 6: was about. This field, the crypto field, a highly speculative field,
11:44
Speaker 6: has not been compliant with various laws, whether it's any
11:47
Speaker 6: money laundering laws, sanctions laws, or in our case, securities laws.
11:53
Speaker 1: All Right, so you know, he is going to respond
11:56
Speaker 1: like that, I think forever because he's so anti crypto.
11:59
Speaker 1: But I think I think the point being is that
12:01
Speaker 1: innovation has played a big role here. You look at
12:04
Speaker 1: Trump's position and the amount. Remember we were upwards of
12:08
Speaker 1: fifty million voters that have access and or exposure to crypto.
12:12
Speaker 1: So I think the impact was very clear is it
12:15
Speaker 1: was a crypto election. And if you look at this
12:18
Speaker 1: right here, just in Donald Trump's campaign raise almost seven
12:22
Speaker 1: and well seven and a half million in crypto. This
12:24
Speaker 1: is just in the last quarter. Remember it still takes
12:27
Speaker 1: a lot to get a campaign, you know, donation, So
12:31
Speaker 1: seven and a half million coming from one category like
12:33
Speaker 1: this that got the attention of of course President Trump,
12:36
Speaker 1: and I think this is only going to play and
12:38
Speaker 1: continue to play out. In fact, if you look at
12:40
Speaker 1: some of the data right here from Brian Armstrong stand
12:43
Speaker 1: with crypto, this is the Advocate group just crossed a
12:46
Speaker 1: major milestone two million advocates. So now they're anticipating that
12:50
Speaker 1: the goal by midterms could be let me zoom in
12:53
Speaker 1: on that for you guys.
12:55
Speaker 2: Up to four million.
12:55
Speaker 1: That's doubling, doubling, imagine four million ads because for every
13:01
Speaker 1: advocate I think there are ten people to possibly twenty
13:06
Speaker 1: people that are active within crypto, and then there are
13:09
Speaker 1: the crypto curious.
13:10
Speaker 2: So imagine that that would.
13:12
Speaker 1: Be forty sixty possibly eighty million voters who are interested
13:17
Speaker 1: in policy surrounding crypto just in the next midterm that's
13:21
Speaker 1: two years away, a bull run, a regulatory and framework,
13:26
Speaker 1: all sorts of potential opportunity, most likely a strategic bitcoin
13:30
Speaker 1: reserve and or others. Think about how much impact this
13:34
Speaker 1: is going to have on American lives. So it's a
13:35
Speaker 1: big deal going forward. I want to go to another
13:38
Speaker 1: clip here. Now this clip will get into Gensler and
13:42
Speaker 1: really where he thinks it's going to be going from here.
13:46
Speaker 7: Take a look thinking just an overriding question about bitcoin
13:52
Speaker 7: and what we've seen for the past four years under
13:54
Speaker 7: your tenure, and I can only come up really with
13:57
Speaker 7: two scenarios, and neither one of them are great. The
14:00
Speaker 7: first one is that under your leadership, it was really
14:05
Speaker 7: drag kicking and screaming into where we are today. And
14:09
Speaker 7: it's a far cry from four years ago. You'd have
14:11
Speaker 7: to admit it, you know, with ETFs and adoption by
14:15
Speaker 7: so many different firms, it's almost like there were so
14:18
Speaker 7: many obstacles put up for it made it very hard
14:21
Speaker 7: for what could be a transformative new asset or industry.
14:26
Speaker 7: So that's on the one hand that you did, or
14:28
Speaker 7: on the other hand, it should have been very closely
14:33
Speaker 7: scrutinized and at ninety five thousand dollars. If this is
14:37
Speaker 7: is ephemeral and built on air and a beanie baby,
14:42
Speaker 7: there's going to be an absolute bloodbath. So either you
14:45
Speaker 7: stood in the way of a totally new industry or
14:48
Speaker 7: you were unable to prevent a huge bubble from forming,
14:52
Speaker 7: which is going to end very badly, and neither one
14:55
Speaker 7: is going to be much of a legacy.
14:58
Speaker 2: To look back on.
15:00
Speaker 6: Joe, I know from our conversations in the past you
15:03
Speaker 6: viewed bitcoin very differently than these ten or fifteen thousand others.
15:06
Speaker 7: But it was hard for bitcoin under you though under
15:11
Speaker 7: your regime it is very difficult for anything good to
15:13
Speaker 7: happen for bitcoin.
15:15
Speaker 6: Joe, within the first few months in the job, we
15:18
Speaker 6: had bitcoin exchange traded finds based on future stuff.
15:23
Speaker 1: Also, after a lawsuit, oh man, Joe was really kind
15:29
Speaker 1: of grilling name there for sure, and that's He's exactly right.
15:33
Speaker 1: There's really no winning for the Gensler legacy. It's pretty
15:37
Speaker 1: much a done deal. I think for sure. He goes
15:39
Speaker 1: on to ask him about all coins, because this is
15:41
Speaker 1: kind of the stickler with Gensler. He hates all coins,
15:44
Speaker 1: but he goes in and asks him a little bit
15:46
Speaker 1: about all coins in kind of the future of where
15:48
Speaker 1: blockchain's going.
15:49
Speaker 7: Tike A, Look, do you think bitcoin has inherent value
15:53
Speaker 7: and is a store of value or do you feel
15:55
Speaker 7: that when we look back on a ten to fifteen,
15:58
Speaker 7: twenty years from now, it's going to be something from
16:01
Speaker 7: the eighteenth century with tulips.
16:05
Speaker 6: Joe, It's it's hard to predict. I think I really
16:09
Speaker 6: do like you because I know that you think I'm
16:13
Speaker 6: going to out you think negatively on many of these
16:16
Speaker 6: ought coins you Joe. But in terms of in terms
16:20
Speaker 6: of bitcoin, we at the SEC have never said it's
16:23
Speaker 6: a security.
16:24
Speaker 2: You think it's you.
16:26
Speaker 7: I think you know you've got to have some kind
16:29
Speaker 7: of feeling. You read, You've read the books, Bitcoin Standard.
16:33
Speaker 6: These other thousands of projects need to show their use
16:38
Speaker 6: case and show that they actually have fundamentals underlying them
16:44
Speaker 6: or they won't persist.
16:45
Speaker 7: Joe, Oh my god, you where the public?
16:47
Speaker 2: That's that's what the public. I don't love Never, I've
16:53
Speaker 2: never loved it.
16:53
Speaker 7: You don't like those other coins.
16:55
Speaker 6: I've never owned any of these, and I've been consistent
16:59
Speaker 6: for seven or eight years on this.
17:01
Speaker 7: Well, now you can because you won't be a SEC charity.
17:04
Speaker 1: There you go, man, Joe, He's definitely an interesting cat
17:08
Speaker 1: when it comes to interviewing these people. Hey, listen to
17:10
Speaker 1: the point is is that we are in a position
17:12
Speaker 1: right now where I think all things are on the table,
17:16
Speaker 1: and that's where I think the current and incoming government
17:20
Speaker 1: is probably going to reach reshift a little bit about
17:23
Speaker 1: the whole crypto narrative in general, and especially Bitcoin and
17:25
Speaker 1: obviously blockchain technology as a whole. Well, last thing to
17:29
Speaker 1: note guys this upcoming week, remember that the inaugurations on Monday.
17:34
Speaker 1: That's also Martin Luther King Day. Now, remember all banks,
17:39
Speaker 1: trading institutions out there, Wall Street, all that's going to
17:42
Speaker 1: be closed on Monday. So while the inauguration is going
17:45
Speaker 1: to be happening, I don't anticipate that we're going to
17:47
Speaker 1: see an immediate next step until Tuesday. That's when we'll
17:52
Speaker 1: probably see real executive orders starting to hit the newswires.
17:56
Speaker 1: And I think at that point you'll see the markets
17:57
Speaker 1: open back up, and you'll see a new potential move
18:01
Speaker 1: on digital assets. So stay tuned right here. If you
18:03
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