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The Favorites - NFL Draft Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:19
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by That three
0:23
Speaker 1: sixty five.
0:23
Speaker 2: We are a part of.
0:25
Speaker 1: The Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the
0:28
Speaker 1: Action Network.
0:29
Speaker 2: Today.
0:29
Speaker 1: I am joined as always by my cos my companion
0:32
Speaker 1: Mike and Padre and my BFF professional Better Simon Hunter
0:36
Speaker 1: l Simon.
0:38
Speaker 3: Chad.
0:39
Speaker 4: We made it, brother, we made it, and I needed
0:41
Speaker 4: it bad. I don't know if you know this, but
0:43
Speaker 4: it is the dark days in Philadelphia with Philadelphia sports
0:46
Speaker 4: right now. We don't have playoffs and hockey, we don't
0:49
Speaker 4: have playoffs in basketball. The Phillies have already been there's
0:53
Speaker 4: seasons over. It's only in April. The season's over for
0:55
Speaker 4: Philadelphia Phillies. So I need this draft. I just need
0:59
Speaker 4: k So I'm so happy it's her brother. We're four
1:03
Speaker 4: months away from the start of the season. This will
1:05
Speaker 4: at least hold us over for what two weeks a
1:06
Speaker 4: little draft talks.
1:08
Speaker 3: I'm so happy it's here.
1:09
Speaker 2: Well, look, it'll be two weeks and then we also get.
1:13
Speaker 1: Schedule release, and then we get win totals, and then
1:18
Speaker 1: we get to start the real work of digging in
1:21
Speaker 1: because we'll know the rosters, will know the draft picks,
1:24
Speaker 1: we'll know the schemes.
1:26
Speaker 2: We'll know it all. Brother. What we're going to.
1:28
Speaker 1: Know today after we talk to our guests is so
1:33
Speaker 1: much more than we know right now, because the fifteen
1:37
Speaker 1: minutes we were waiting to go on the air was insane.
1:42
Speaker 1: Revelatory prices are moving, there are rumors everywhere, There are
1:47
Speaker 1: mock tracks that are so contradictory, two with each other.
1:51
Speaker 2: Nobody knows anything.
1:52
Speaker 1: We begin the twenty twenty five NFL Draft in Green
1:57
Speaker 1: Bay tonight. Today's show has are co hosts of the
2:01
Speaker 1: Action Network podcast, who have been leading that show's NFL
2:05
Speaker 1: Draft coverage for the past two months. Two mainstays as
2:12
Speaker 1: guests on The Favorites. Chris Ravem, one of the best
2:16
Speaker 1: fantasy rankers in the history of fantasy rankers. You can
2:21
Speaker 1: also hear him every week on The Fantasy Flex with
2:24
Speaker 1: Sean Kerner maybe his only equal when it comes to
2:29
Speaker 1: fantasy rankers. And Evan Abrams, our regular director of research,
2:35
Speaker 1: the man who signs authentic jerseys filled with stats he
2:40
Speaker 1: spews on the show.
2:41
Speaker 2: We're going to get to him in a second.
2:42
Speaker 1: As a reminder, The Favorite podcast is presented by BET
2:45
Speaker 1: three sixty five and New BET three six five customers
2:48
Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars and bonus bets. When
2:50
Speaker 1: you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code favorites,
2:53
Speaker 1: deposit ten dollars place to bet for five dollars to
2:55
Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those
3:00
Speaker 1: bonus bets can use on spreads to those player props.
3:02
Speaker 2: Features, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary.
3:04
Speaker 1: At bet three six five, must be twenty one or
3:06
Speaker 1: older than present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana,
3:10
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
3:13
Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
3:17
Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms, conditioned
3:19
Speaker 1: restrictions apply. All right, Simon, I want to start with
3:22
Speaker 1: you because we had McShay on the show about a
3:27
Speaker 1: week ago and he mentioned something about Ashton Genty, the
3:34
Speaker 1: running back from Boise State who everyone agrees is a
3:38
Speaker 1: singular talent except for maybe Matthew Friedman, and his draft
3:44
Speaker 1: prospects have been rising. I know Raybon has a lot
3:49
Speaker 1: of thoughts on Genty. I know Evan has been combing
3:54
Speaker 1: the catacombs for research on Gent. A lot of opinions
3:59
Speaker 1: about j who seems to be of a pivot point
4:02
Speaker 1: in this draft. Give me and give the audience our
4:06
Speaker 1: listeners the intel that you started hearing after.
4:10
Speaker 2: Mcshae came on the show and talked about genty.
4:13
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll give tons of credit to mcshagh where he
4:16
Speaker 4: came on here, and again my ears perked up because
4:18
Speaker 4: I had heard people talk a little bit about gent
4:20
Speaker 4: going outside the top ten, and he was priced that
4:24
Speaker 4: way right when he was on here.
4:26
Speaker 3: He was over under eight and a half pick eight
4:29
Speaker 3: and a half, and.
4:29
Speaker 4: The over I believe was like plus one point fifty
4:33
Speaker 4: at the time, so you know, minus two hundred on
4:37
Speaker 4: the under of eight and a half at that point,
4:39
Speaker 4: it was something around there.
4:40
Speaker 3: He came on here and talked about.
4:42
Speaker 4: The possibility of him going to the Patriots, which at
4:44
Speaker 4: the time was sixteen to one. Now it's four to one,
4:47
Speaker 4: you know, a week later, so he was really head
4:49
Speaker 4: of the market. I took a large position on it
4:52
Speaker 4: just because I believe what he was saying. I love
4:55
Speaker 4: the Gente talent. I think what really came down to
4:57
Speaker 4: what me and you talked about just the fact that
5:00
Speaker 4: teams have overreacted, in my opinion, to what happened with
5:02
Speaker 4: the Eagles last year in Saquon. Teams think now they
5:05
Speaker 4: think they're running back away where it's just it's never
5:07
Speaker 4: that easy, right cheat. We always joke about that it's
5:09
Speaker 4: not just one piece. For most teams, that was a
5:12
Speaker 4: very unique situation, but in the NFL, we've seen that
5:15
Speaker 4: these teams really do believe that. Now you know, we're
5:18
Speaker 4: sitting here a week later, he might not go to Patriots,
5:21
Speaker 4: but all of a sudden, the Jaguars are that fifth pick,
5:23
Speaker 4: the trade out position has become the hot bet, and
5:27
Speaker 4: he is now minus two fifty to go Genti at
5:30
Speaker 4: pick five, which is crazy to think that, you know,
5:34
Speaker 4: just a week ago he wasn't even supposed to go
5:36
Speaker 4: in the top ten. Now it's big money minus money
5:41
Speaker 4: that he's going to be a pick five. And to me,
5:44
Speaker 4: I have two big things I need to happen that
5:46
Speaker 4: I bet on. I need Sanders to go top ten.
5:49
Speaker 4: That'd be very profitable for me because I've just been
5:51
Speaker 4: betting really high plus numbers.
5:54
Speaker 1: Just in case everyone isn't hasn't been listening, You mean
5:56
Speaker 1: shoud or Sanders.
5:57
Speaker 4: Shador Sanders, Yes, and genty to be a top five pick, Like,
6:02
Speaker 4: as long as he goes under that six and a half,
6:05
Speaker 4: you know, if he slips past the Raiders, I'm gonna
6:08
Speaker 4: take a big negative on the day. It's really my
6:10
Speaker 4: largest position, and it's you know, the type of thing
6:13
Speaker 4: where everyone takes position for different reasons. I mainly took
6:16
Speaker 4: a position just because every scout I talked to said
6:20
Speaker 4: he was their number three, number two prospect, every single
6:23
Speaker 4: one I talk to, Chad. So if I'm getting that info,
6:26
Speaker 4: and then someone like Todd mcshaye comes on here and
6:28
Speaker 4: says what he says and then goes on a bunch
6:29
Speaker 4: of other big mainstream shows and start saying the same
6:33
Speaker 4: thing that what he's hearing is gent going top five.
6:35
Speaker 4: I feel very lucky that we got him in here
6:38
Speaker 4: early and I was able to bet it really before
6:41
Speaker 4: anyone else, And it's like that's the dream, snare.
6:43
Speaker 3: I told you, I bet it the whole weekend.
6:45
Speaker 4: So when people ask about the draft in my betting
6:47
Speaker 4: style with it, I do bet a lot of stuff,
6:50
Speaker 4: but I try to find one or two edges and
6:52
Speaker 4: just lean into it hard, like really take a position
6:55
Speaker 4: on it, and then I get caught every now and then,
6:58
Speaker 4: like me, Chad knows the story. Bryce on my worst
7:00
Speaker 4: call ever. I just I never thought in any world
7:03
Speaker 4: he'd be number one pick. It does happen. So I'm
7:05
Speaker 4: not telling you everyone to go out there for your
7:07
Speaker 4: life season here on gent being a top five pick.
7:10
Speaker 4: We all sit here and we talk with different people.
7:12
Speaker 4: But at the end of the day, like Chris and
7:14
Speaker 4: I'm sure Evan can attest to it, it's a guessing
7:16
Speaker 4: game the in the day, right we're playing off people's mocks.
7:18
Speaker 4: So I do feel confident chat. But you know the deal, brother,
7:22
Speaker 4: I didn't sleep last night. It's a lot of nerves
7:24
Speaker 4: because you're just you're betting on the what if, not
7:28
Speaker 4: so much what you.
7:29
Speaker 1: Know, Ray Bund, You've been loving genty for a long time.
7:33
Speaker 1: You guys have been talking about this. How do you
7:35
Speaker 1: feel about this movement?
7:39
Speaker 5: It'll expected it, I think, I know, me and Evnant
7:41
Speaker 5: have been kind of talking about kind of taking like
7:44
Speaker 5: looking at that top of the board, we didn't there
7:46
Speaker 5: was so much uncertainty, even going back throughout the whole process,
7:50
Speaker 5: kind of take what's the second most likely think? I know,
7:53
Speaker 5: Dan back and I talked about gent in March to
7:56
Speaker 5: the Jaguars. I think it was something ridiculous fifty to
8:00
Speaker 5: one or something like they already there was nowhere near
8:04
Speaker 5: what it is now. So I think one of the
8:06
Speaker 5: things with the draft, if if you've been betting it
8:11
Speaker 5: like throughout the process, you're probably in a great spot
8:13
Speaker 5: right now, is Simon alluded to.
8:15
Speaker 6: But now is the time when you really, really, I.
8:19
Speaker 5: Think, want to fade the consensus, like it's not the
8:22
Speaker 5: time to bet an actor denty. He's but the reason
8:24
Speaker 5: he's there is he as he should be is because
8:28
Speaker 5: look at the t leaves. This is a bad quarterback class.
8:32
Speaker 5: This is a bad draft class in general. Acording to
8:34
Speaker 5: most scouts, teams don't have more than probably ten to
8:39
Speaker 5: fifteen first round grades on guys in this whole draft.
8:44
Speaker 5: So what you're seeing is the best players. The cream
8:48
Speaker 5: is rising to the top, and the best players are
8:52
Speaker 5: Travis Hunter, ABDW. Carter, and Ashta GenZ. In my opinion,
8:56
Speaker 5: cam Ward the Titans are just like, oh man, Will
8:59
Speaker 5: Levis on his knee.
9:00
Speaker 6: We can't do that again. So we got it. But
9:02
Speaker 6: cam Ward's not.
9:03
Speaker 5: He's not the fourth best, you know, prospect in this
9:06
Speaker 5: class and probably somebody like Mason Graham or something like that.
9:08
Speaker 5: So it's not surprising at all with Gens rising. But
9:14
Speaker 5: I don't think now is the time you want to
9:15
Speaker 5: be investing in him. I think now is the time
9:19
Speaker 5: where you start hitting up these hype guys and kind
9:22
Speaker 5: of fading the hype of guys like Banks, who like
9:25
Speaker 5: nothing changed, and he's all of a sudden, you know,
9:28
Speaker 5: like a mock mocks him number six and now his
9:31
Speaker 5: over unders like number seven, where it was what Evan
9:35
Speaker 5: was like in the twenties or thirteen. It was just
9:37
Speaker 5: thirteen just yesterday at Plus money, and now it's like
9:40
Speaker 5: seven and a.
9:40
Speaker 6: Half at some books. So you just got to kind
9:42
Speaker 6: of fade the hype now.
9:43
Speaker 5: But Gens is there because he's he's I think he's
9:47
Speaker 5: a top five prospect in a week class.
9:49
Speaker 1: All right, before we get to Banks, and we're talking
9:51
Speaker 1: about Calvin Banks, the offensive tackle from Texas whose numbers
9:55
Speaker 1: are moving up and his odds are shrinking, Evan I
9:59
Speaker 1: want and we're going to get to that conversation. Before
10:04
Speaker 1: we came out of the air, you started talking about
10:06
Speaker 1: what some books have been saying about their positioning and
10:10
Speaker 1: what they need tonight.
10:11
Speaker 2: Related to Genty, some of this is universal.
10:14
Speaker 7: I've heard from a few different ones, but the quote
10:16
Speaker 7: is basically, they're hoping that gent falls out of the
10:18
Speaker 7: top five, and everything else they'll figure out later. It
10:21
Speaker 7: just seems like everyone has invested in that, whether it's
10:24
Speaker 7: at four, at five, top five. I've even heard some
10:27
Speaker 7: people say, hey, let's take a shot at three. I
10:29
Speaker 7: just think what Raybond said, most talented players one, two, three, Carter.
10:35
Speaker 8: Hunter eats Genty at the top.
10:37
Speaker 7: So I just think in a class where the offensive
10:40
Speaker 7: skill position players, including the quarterbacks, are being questioned all
10:44
Speaker 7: over the place, he's just not being questioned. He's one
10:48
Speaker 7: of the more talented running backs we've seen even enter
10:50
Speaker 7: the NFL in the last few years. So I just
10:53
Speaker 7: think it's becoming a what do I want to give
10:56
Speaker 7: up to move up to get him or just let
10:59
Speaker 7: someone take the talented guy. So I think right now,
11:02
Speaker 7: if you're giving like gambling advice on this, like hours
11:05
Speaker 7: before the draft, I don't think you can invest much
11:07
Speaker 7: into him, because again, even at three sixty five right now,
11:10
Speaker 7: under six and a half is like minus five fifty.
11:13
Speaker 7: There's just hard to even invest in those areas and
11:16
Speaker 7: minus two fifty again, and even in the last twenty
11:18
Speaker 7: four hours that five slot, he's gone from one to
11:21
Speaker 7: seventy to two hundred.
11:22
Speaker 8: To two fifty. It just keeps moving up. So it
11:24
Speaker 8: seems to be the consensus. Honestly.
11:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, the movement on a lot of these players has
11:30
Speaker 1: been pretty insane. The other player where there's a ton
11:34
Speaker 1: of movement really on his draft position is shud Or Sanders,
11:40
Speaker 1: quarterback from Colorado ray Bound. What have you seen and
11:44
Speaker 1: why do you think this is moving so much?
11:47
Speaker 7: So?
11:48
Speaker 5: Yeah, to start the process, there was a time when
11:50
Speaker 5: Shor Sanders was expected to be the number one overall pick.
11:55
Speaker 5: Then he kind of settled in as the you know,
11:59
Speaker 5: the consensus number two two for a while, and then
12:02
Speaker 5: I think, you know, he worked out for some teams
12:05
Speaker 5: and started sliding a bit, But I just don't think that.
12:10
Speaker 6: Again.
12:10
Speaker 5: So, the way the draft works for people that are
12:12
Speaker 5: unfamiliar is teams have their draft boards and they kind
12:16
Speaker 5: of rate their prospects by round. So they'll be like,
12:19
Speaker 5: all right, you know, we have ten players for the
12:23
Speaker 5: first round. Grade now that's thirty two have to go
12:26
Speaker 5: in the first round. But I think it's a situation
12:28
Speaker 5: where a lot of teams have a second round or
12:31
Speaker 5: even lower grade on a Shade or Sanders, and so
12:35
Speaker 5: you're just seeing them fall. And I think it's interesting
12:39
Speaker 5: because if you look back at the last ten years
12:41
Speaker 5: or so, quarterbacks that go in the first round, they
12:45
Speaker 5: only go to teams that they've done a top thirty
12:49
Speaker 5: workout for the only time that didn't happen in the
12:53
Speaker 5: first round was to in the COVID year where I
12:56
Speaker 5: think he sent the tape workout in to the Dolphins
12:58
Speaker 5: or something like that.
13:01
Speaker 6: Should or Dark all these guys could fall.
13:04
Speaker 5: Like I think cam Ward is pretty safe, but I
13:08
Speaker 5: don't think should or Sanders is a great fit in Pittsburgh.
13:10
Speaker 5: I know people are talking about the intangibles, but that's
13:12
Speaker 5: because everyone's just it's they're just looking at team needs
13:17
Speaker 5: where we don't really know the grades that these teams
13:20
Speaker 5: have on guys, but just reading between the lines, no
13:25
Speaker 5: one seems in a rush or no one seems kind
13:28
Speaker 5: of pressed to take or to to to trade up.
13:31
Speaker 5: So that tells you what these kind of you know,
13:34
Speaker 5: what they feel about the quarterback class and just the
13:36
Speaker 5: class in general. No one's been able to trade period
13:39
Speaker 5: because everyone wants to trade back because it's better to
13:42
Speaker 5: just take a bunch of shots because no one really
13:44
Speaker 5: likes anyone, so I should always just kind of included
13:47
Speaker 5: in that. I think I think the issue with him
13:49
Speaker 5: is arm strength, uh and that and and that's it.
13:52
Speaker 5: That would be a real issue for Pittsburgh, which is
13:54
Speaker 5: why I don't think he goes twenty one, or if
13:57
Speaker 5: he doesn't go there, you might just see the second
13:59
Speaker 5: round play out like the thought a month ago or
14:01
Speaker 5: even a couple of weeks ago, that the first round
14:03
Speaker 5: would play out where you know Cleveland, it's between Cleveland
14:05
Speaker 5: and the Giants. You know who gets Shudor and who
14:08
Speaker 5: gets Jackson Dark Because just the quarterbacks as a whole
14:11
Speaker 5: are kind of kind of falling, and if other guys
14:13
Speaker 5: are rising, I think it's just kind of fake hype
14:15
Speaker 5: to make up for the fact that you know, Shador
14:18
Speaker 5: was at one point expected to go number two. So
14:20
Speaker 5: now you're seeing like, oh, well, maybe mill Road takes
14:23
Speaker 5: his place. They're like, it's like, no, just no one
14:25
Speaker 5: likes any of these guys. Cam Ward is the best
14:28
Speaker 5: quarterback and he's met Like I heard a scout say
14:32
Speaker 5: Mason Rudolph Mason Rudolph would be the number three quarterback
14:35
Speaker 5: in this class. So that tells you what people think
14:39
Speaker 5: about this quarterback class.
14:40
Speaker 1: Well, Simon, you just said that you're heavily invested in
14:44
Speaker 1: Shadoor top ten.
14:47
Speaker 2: How did you get there?
14:49
Speaker 3: Just because of the numbers? It was most books yesterday.
14:53
Speaker 4: Moved to ten and a half at plus three hundred.
14:56
Speaker 4: I said, okay, I'll take a position, and then it
14:57
Speaker 4: goes to fourteen and a half.
14:58
Speaker 3: Chap plus three hundred.
15:00
Speaker 4: Got to take another position, I guess, And then it
15:02
Speaker 4: gets up the twenty one and a half and it goes, okay,
15:04
Speaker 4: well we're at this point now.
15:07
Speaker 3: It's not as juiced up, right.
15:08
Speaker 4: I think the twenty and a half was minus one
15:09
Speaker 4: p fifteen when I first saw it, So you know
15:12
Speaker 4: you're not getting that crazy value obviously with the plus number.
15:15
Speaker 4: But still bet it just because of how much is moved.
15:18
Speaker 4: I could easily be caught here chat. But my bet
15:20
Speaker 4: is simply on desperation. And you know these teams act
15:24
Speaker 4: confident insecure, but we've seen teams panic time and time
15:28
Speaker 4: again when this draft starts, and it is because so
15:31
Speaker 4: many of these guys are thinking future, right, Like if
15:34
Speaker 4: you're a GM Sanders might extend you another year or
15:37
Speaker 4: two of a life because you got this young kid
15:39
Speaker 4: in there, right, You got the young quarterback, and it's
15:42
Speaker 4: all about potential, Like this is someone that you know.
15:45
Speaker 4: People I respect have him great as their number one quarterback.
15:48
Speaker 4: So when I see that, I'm just like, Okay, all
15:51
Speaker 4: it takes is one team to love the kid. That's
15:53
Speaker 4: That's what I'm betting on, one team to love them.
15:56
Speaker 4: They finally take a position, they move either to take
15:58
Speaker 4: them or they take them to the draft.
15:59
Speaker 3: Spot have.
16:00
Speaker 4: So my view of this class is like when I've
16:03
Speaker 4: talked to scouts chat, it's been they love next year.
16:06
Speaker 4: So most that's the biggest issue for this class right
16:09
Speaker 4: now is next year's class looks like a jugger or not.
16:12
Speaker 4: It looks like the year before right, like you might
16:14
Speaker 4: have one, two, maybe even three legit QB one all
16:19
Speaker 4: pros where this class, like Chris just said, we would
16:23
Speaker 4: all be shocked if cam Ward ends up being an
16:26
Speaker 4: All pro. I think he could be talented. I think
16:28
Speaker 4: he could be a pro bowler, but like we've heard,
16:30
Speaker 4: the ceiling for him is like what people compare him
16:32
Speaker 4: through Steve McNair. That would be insane if he could
16:36
Speaker 4: reach out potential, but the odds are so slim where
16:39
Speaker 4: the next year's class, there's feels like there's a couple
16:41
Speaker 4: of guys that have a lot more potential. So that's
16:43
Speaker 4: been interesting to me chat talking to these different teams
16:45
Speaker 4: where it's like, Okay, the Browns, they do need a quarterback,
16:49
Speaker 4: like Chris just said, they might be confident in just
16:51
Speaker 4: waiting to the second round taking Millrow. They might have
16:53
Speaker 4: a different grade than we all know on Sanders, right,
16:56
Speaker 4: they might have him below Dart and Milrow. So that's
16:59
Speaker 4: what's so funnering about the betting market. It's like you're
17:02
Speaker 4: hearing so many teams super negative. Are you hearing much
17:05
Speaker 4: positive chat about Sanders?
17:07
Speaker 7: No?
17:07
Speaker 4: And that's for a good reason, right, So that's why
17:10
Speaker 4: i love making these type of bets. I'm betting on
17:11
Speaker 4: that dark horse team that's just not saying a word,
17:14
Speaker 4: like the Atlanta Falcons last year taking Pendix when they
17:17
Speaker 4: did right, no one saw it coming.
17:19
Speaker 3: That's kind of what I'm banking on here.
17:20
Speaker 4: So yeah, it's it's really fun where like you know,
17:23
Speaker 4: the Rams, I've taken a position on them to take
17:25
Speaker 4: Sanders at fifty to one, because I could see in
17:29
Speaker 4: some crazy world McVeigh loves him.
17:30
Speaker 3: We want to know. So there's always teams like that.
17:33
Speaker 3: I'll do that chat. But it's like, do I've inside info?
17:36
Speaker 4: No? If I did, people we'd be we'd be going
17:38
Speaker 4: crazy on here right now. But yeah, the Sanders chatter
17:41
Speaker 4: to me is interesting. It's all negative the last two
17:43
Speaker 4: three days before the draft. Zero positive. And that's very
17:46
Speaker 4: telling that there are teams out there that love them.
17:49
Speaker 4: They're just playing the game right now.
17:52
Speaker 2: How do we get here?
17:53
Speaker 8: Here's what.
17:55
Speaker 2: None of this makes sense to me, and it's so stupid.
17:58
Speaker 1: And these are these are billion dollar franchises, right, These
18:02
Speaker 1: are not in insignificant businesses that are flying under the radar.
18:09
Speaker 1: And these are decisions that have generational impacts on the
18:16
Speaker 1: success of these teams. The revenue these teams can drive,
18:19
Speaker 1: the fandom of these teams, the profile of these teams.
18:24
Speaker 1: These are massive decisions. Shedroy Sanders during the college football season,
18:32
Speaker 1: everybody's like, Oh, this guy's gonna be the number one pick.
18:34
Speaker 1: There wasn't even a question, right, it was like consensus.
18:38
Speaker 1: He's the best, He's the guy we want. It's not
18:42
Speaker 1: like cam Ward, who had a great year at Miami
18:47
Speaker 1: was that different of a quarterback at Washington State? He
18:51
Speaker 1: just did it against you could argue nominally better competition.
18:55
Speaker 1: It's not like the ACC was so much better than.
19:00
Speaker 2: The pack twelve.
19:01
Speaker 1: So why is this thing so fucking flawed? It is
19:06
Speaker 1: so stupid. The entire decision making process. To me, it
19:10
Speaker 1: just feels like Evan, it just feels like we're throwing darts.
19:14
Speaker 1: How are we making any decisions here with any confidence.
19:17
Speaker 7: I think people started, and this is just my opinion,
19:21
Speaker 7: and you guys can disagree or agree. I think they
19:24
Speaker 7: started meeting with Shador and that's what ended up happening.
19:27
Speaker 7: Like I think you were there, people started to get
19:29
Speaker 7: like a one on one experience of talking through the playbook,
19:32
Speaker 7: talking through different things, maybe hearing what he had to
19:35
Speaker 7: say on some of these things.
19:37
Speaker 8: That's when this started to move.
19:38
Speaker 7: Like, no one's done almost anything on the field, No
19:41
Speaker 7: one's done almost anything to move anything really, aside from
19:44
Speaker 7: having conversations with these players, looking at tape on these
19:48
Speaker 7: players and trying to make let's call it one hundred
19:51
Speaker 7: million dollar decisions for billion dollar franchises, right, And I
19:54
Speaker 7: think he's moved from three and a half in terms
19:56
Speaker 7: of his draft position all the way up to twenty
19:58
Speaker 7: one and a half, and at the moment you've got,
20:01
Speaker 7: you know, maybe your top eight mock drafters, four or
20:04
Speaker 7: five of them completely out of the first round, while
20:06
Speaker 7: the other one is like Pittsburgh as shrug emoji. And
20:10
Speaker 7: that's kind of what the other person has said, because
20:12
Speaker 7: at this point, no one is saying, like Simon said
20:15
Speaker 7: that they like him.
20:16
Speaker 8: It's all negative.
20:17
Speaker 7: Energy leading up to the draft, which is completely moving
20:21
Speaker 7: his number up. So I mean, personally today, what I
20:25
Speaker 7: would do to bet on it. I mean, I'd probably
20:26
Speaker 7: take a stab on that top ten. But right now
20:29
Speaker 7: the best odds is three to one, So I mean,
20:32
Speaker 7: maybe New Orleans are ten to one and it all
20:35
Speaker 7: being just a smoke screen. And you know, we heard
20:37
Speaker 7: the car stuff yesterday which was completely strange, completely odd,
20:41
Speaker 7: like they have no answers, they won't have an answer
20:43
Speaker 7: before the draft, and now we say, well, they need
20:46
Speaker 7: a quarterback, so at ten to one, that would probably
20:48
Speaker 7: be the way I look at it. But you're right, Chad,
20:51
Speaker 7: I mean it's really really strange considering I think it's
20:55
Speaker 7: just movement off of conversations and kind of the GMS
20:58
Speaker 7: and coaches being played awful a little bit like that.
21:00
Speaker 7: I just don't think they want the circus.
21:04
Speaker 5: I think this is this is all just all of
21:07
Speaker 5: the draft stuff, and the movement is media generated and
21:12
Speaker 5: prognostication generated. Like I don't think that these teams are
21:19
Speaker 5: necessarily you know here like kind of I don't think
21:23
Speaker 5: there's any I don't think they're doing it wrong. I
21:25
Speaker 5: think I think they probably knew the whole time where
21:27
Speaker 5: their draft board it was, and then it wasn't until
21:29
Speaker 5: people really started laying things out and everyone was kind
21:32
Speaker 5: of waiting for some domino to for like O, I
21:34
Speaker 5: wish there was a trade so like we could kind
21:36
Speaker 5: of get some sense of like who's gonna go where
21:38
Speaker 5: Literally guys are moving like halfway up and down the
21:43
Speaker 5: board off one mock draft and we're day of the draft,
21:48
Speaker 5: Day of the draft, and dudes who I couldn't even
21:51
Speaker 5: name put out a mock like I'm not like you
21:54
Speaker 5: know what I mean, Like there's just too many of them,
21:55
Speaker 5: but one guy it's not even like okay.
21:59
Speaker 6: Overwhelming them my mocks are doing this.
22:01
Speaker 5: It's like, okay, well this guy who does mox and
22:04
Speaker 5: like finished in the top ten that one year, but
22:07
Speaker 5: this guy here, so we got to move him from
22:08
Speaker 5: thirteen to six. It's just no one knows anything. The
22:12
Speaker 5: team's new all along, I think. But I think media,
22:17
Speaker 5: first of all, we're a little we're always gonna be
22:19
Speaker 5: infatuated with quarterbacks.
22:20
Speaker 6: And when it's early.
22:22
Speaker 5: In the process and you know, you're kind of looking at, okay, well,
22:26
Speaker 5: quarterbacks at the top of the board. To Simer's point,
22:29
Speaker 5: you're kind of betting on a desperation. But as we've
22:32
Speaker 5: gotten I think closer and closer to the draft, I
22:36
Speaker 5: just think we're kind of seeing a lack of desperation
22:40
Speaker 5: in the actions. Like it's not just like I don't
22:43
Speaker 5: think it's just like a teams are. It's like a
22:45
Speaker 5: smoke screen. And you know, I think the fact that
22:49
Speaker 5: no movement has been able to happen, no trades have
22:51
Speaker 5: been able to happen, just tells you that teams don't
22:53
Speaker 5: have a lot of first round grades, and no one's
22:55
Speaker 5: really trying to trade up for anyone, and everyone's kind
22:58
Speaker 5: of comfortable where they are just letting them word fault
23:00
Speaker 5: to them because there's not really a lot of upside
23:03
Speaker 5: and less the real reports have been Hunter and Gentee
23:07
Speaker 5: and cam Ward, So it makes sense the top quarterback
23:11
Speaker 5: who's probably in a tier above everyone else, and then
23:15
Speaker 5: just top prospects. So I think I think that I
23:17
Speaker 5: think the team's knew awlong, but you know, it was
23:21
Speaker 5: just kind of the and the media hype drives it,
23:23
Speaker 5: and it's still driving this crazy movement and we're hours out.
23:28
Speaker 1: McShay alluded to this last week. There really is no
23:32
Speaker 1: upside for any GM, any scout, any executive to give
23:37
Speaker 1: anybody in the media who covers the draft any real information.
23:41
Speaker 1: So it's all dependent upon us believing that somebody has
23:48
Speaker 1: a good enough relationship that they're getting directional content. They're
23:54
Speaker 1: never going to get real content, and more than likely
23:56
Speaker 1: they're getting shitty content. And so you know, Raybund, you
24:00
Speaker 1: mentioned Calvin Banks earlier in the show. This is a
24:04
Speaker 1: guy who the tackle from Texas, was not listed anywhere
24:09
Speaker 1: as the top overall offensive line prospect. It has been
24:13
Speaker 1: Will Campbell, Will Campbell, Will Campbell, Will Campbell. All of
24:16
Speaker 1: a sudden, Evan, you can tell us the numbers Calvin
24:21
Speaker 1: Banks like could be going as high as number six
24:25
Speaker 1: to the Raiders at this point. What has the movement
24:30
Speaker 1: been like for him, but he's a very good example
24:32
Speaker 1: of Raybon. What you're talking about, Evan, give us the numbers.
24:36
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's been consistent movement, honestly, and each week me
24:39
Speaker 7: and Raybond do the Action podcast. Banks has been like
24:42
Speaker 7: the conversation every time because it's been steady. So he
24:46
Speaker 7: opened a twenty four and a half even just yesterday,
24:48
Speaker 7: I'm about three sixty five. He was at thirteen and
24:51
Speaker 7: a half, but ends up thirteen and a half over
24:53
Speaker 7: plus three fifty, ends up moving to now seven and
24:56
Speaker 7: a half at over at even odds. So I mean,
24:59
Speaker 7: at at this point, we're just trying to I don't
25:03
Speaker 7: want to call it randomly, but we're just selecting offensive
25:06
Speaker 7: tackles at this point. To put into that, I've seen
25:09
Speaker 7: member with that sixth lot. As soon as we heard
25:11
Speaker 7: genty going five, I think everyone is trying to figure
25:14
Speaker 7: out what the heck the Raiders are going to do,
25:16
Speaker 7: especially because it's a new Raiders. There's Brady involved, there's Cara.
25:19
Speaker 7: I just think we don't know this Raiders team, so
25:22
Speaker 7: I think trying to figure out what's going on there.
25:23
Speaker 7: But Banks a ton of mock drafts. If genty doesn't
25:27
Speaker 7: go five, I think he'll go six. I think, but
25:31
Speaker 7: if he goes five, I think Membo Banks are both
25:34
Speaker 7: the possibilities there. But I think if I look at
25:38
Speaker 7: it right, I think Banks has been the biggest mover
25:41
Speaker 7: up out of almost anyone. Second's probably McMillan, but right
25:44
Speaker 7: now it's Banks. The numbers are crazy. I sent a
25:47
Speaker 7: screenshot to Raybon and our producer Matt Mitchell last night.
25:50
Speaker 7: Banks was minus twelve hundred to go top ten at
25:53
Speaker 7: a certain book. At that point, it's just the movement's insane.
25:57
Speaker 6: And nothing has happened. That's what's crazy.
25:59
Speaker 5: That's why I tell people should like Evan, you were
26:02
Speaker 5: talking about Banks being like the number two tackle at
26:05
Speaker 5: what like ten to one odds and greater than that.
26:08
Speaker 5: You were high on Banks when he was still people
26:11
Speaker 5: were still mocking him as a guard.
26:13
Speaker 6: Now all of a sudden he's at the top tackle.
26:15
Speaker 3: Like what this is?
26:16
Speaker 5: Nothing has happened, no one, He didn't block anyone, Like
26:21
Speaker 5: the what what are we doing?
26:25
Speaker 8: Well?
26:25
Speaker 1: This is what I love about the draft, And I
26:27
Speaker 1: do want to get to Simon. You've laid out your positions,
26:30
Speaker 1: but Ray Bond and Evan, I want I want you
26:32
Speaker 1: to recap positions for people Shamar Stewart defensive end from
26:37
Speaker 1: Texas A and m you know, he's got four and
26:41
Speaker 1: a half career sacks in three seasons, but he tested
26:46
Speaker 1: as the best athlete at the Combine. He's either Mike Mamula,
26:53
Speaker 1: who old heads will remember, Mike Mamula who was a
26:57
Speaker 1: defensive end at Boston College who had done thing, went
27:01
Speaker 1: to the Combine and all of a sudden became a
27:03
Speaker 1: top ten pick for the Philadelphia Eagles because his athleticism
27:08
Speaker 1: so wowed every single scout there. Or you know the
27:11
Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal, which you guys know I love the
27:13
Speaker 1: sports section of the Wall Street Journal. They had a
27:15
Speaker 1: story this morning about Stuart where you know, people are
27:19
Speaker 1: grading him as anything from Javon Curse, who was an
27:23
Speaker 1: athletic freak who played for the Titans, to Miles Garrett
27:26
Speaker 1: who is going to be in the Hall of Fame
27:28
Speaker 1: for the Cleveland Browns. But the guy didn't do anything
27:32
Speaker 1: in college. And the response you get is, well, it
27:35
Speaker 1: wasn't a scheme, it wasn't a system that was conducive
27:38
Speaker 1: to him doing anything. Why can anyone say that and
27:43
Speaker 1: everyone accepts that without any pushback whatsoever. If the guy
27:48
Speaker 1: is that good of an athlete in college football, What
27:54
Speaker 1: coach isn't building the system to take advantage of a
27:58
Speaker 1: guy who can dominate that. You don't make like a
28:01
Speaker 1: guy like that a fucking compliment on the defensive line.
28:05
Speaker 1: You make him the focal point of the defensive line.
28:08
Speaker 1: This makes no sense to me, Simon, explain it to me.
28:15
Speaker 4: Because you're going it from it from just one perspective
28:18
Speaker 4: where it it does work out that where where you're
28:20
Speaker 4: taking the potential and I get whe you're coming from
28:23
Speaker 4: check because there are, in my opinion, way more missus
28:26
Speaker 4: than hits. But when you do hit on the right
28:28
Speaker 4: type of potential, it's like you got an all time
28:31
Speaker 4: or all pro. Like my favorite ever always be the
28:34
Speaker 4: Jordan of Malata, Like a guy played rugby. Wasn't nobody
28:38
Speaker 4: The Eagles had them on their board. So we can
28:40
Speaker 4: get this kid in the seventh round. He's some Australian
28:43
Speaker 4: guy that plays rugby. He's eighteen, he's biggest shit. We'll
28:46
Speaker 4: turn him into a left tackle. Now he's probably number one,
28:51
Speaker 4: number two best left tackle. I know what you're saying, Jet,
28:53
Speaker 4: and I'm saying, Dad's drafted on potential where like you're
28:56
Speaker 4: saying the first round. To me, I'm with you that
28:59
Speaker 4: the risk isn't the same where you're you're taking a
29:01
Speaker 4: guy a potential in the first round of that greater risk.
29:04
Speaker 3: It is not the same.
29:05
Speaker 4: But these teams talk themselves into it, Chad, because they
29:08
Speaker 4: see these guys work out and they say, well, we
29:12
Speaker 4: have much better coaching, Like right, there's not this kid's
29:14
Speaker 4: not wasting time going to class. He's going to be
29:17
Speaker 4: in here work and putting the work in. We're like,
29:19
Speaker 4: you're saying, it doesn't work that way.
29:21
Speaker 3: So I'm with you. I hate it, but I get
29:24
Speaker 3: why they.
29:24
Speaker 4: Do it because for every you know, four or five misses,
29:28
Speaker 4: the one thing that does it on the one guy.
29:30
Speaker 4: It's it's huge in football, right, It's it's game changing potential.
29:33
Speaker 4: So I'm with you, it's it's tough. But you know,
29:37
Speaker 4: there's this draft class, like we're talking about here at
29:40
Speaker 4: Chris said it's a weak draft class.
29:42
Speaker 3: To me, I love this draft class because they're they're all.
29:45
Speaker 4: Feels like the same type of level, Like you can
29:47
Speaker 4: get really good guys at pick forty two, forty five,
29:51
Speaker 4: as these teams reaching right now at pick seven, pick six,
29:55
Speaker 4: So to me.
29:56
Speaker 3: It's really interesting.
29:57
Speaker 4: Like we're talking about here, like Will Campbell, some people
30:00
Speaker 4: chat don't even have him as a first rounder because
30:02
Speaker 4: of his arms.
30:03
Speaker 3: Like that's what I'm saying.
30:04
Speaker 4: This is crazy that this game might go pick four
30:07
Speaker 4: and you have some scouts to have a second round
30:09
Speaker 4: grade on them because of potential. So yeah, it's this
30:13
Speaker 4: is gonna be a crazy draft class. I can tell
30:14
Speaker 4: you that from just to get go, you.
30:17
Speaker 6: Get some great second rounders in the first round this year.
30:20
Speaker 7: I think that's true though. I think that's why the
30:22
Speaker 7: trading back is so interesting right now, because I think
30:24
Speaker 7: other teams are looking at the board and saying to themselves, Okay,
30:27
Speaker 7: well we can draft at eleven or twelve or thirteen,
30:29
Speaker 7: or we can try to double up and triple up
30:31
Speaker 7: and get more players. Because I do think it's a
30:34
Speaker 7: little bit level, Like look at the defensive line. You
30:36
Speaker 7: have like seven, eight, nine defensive linemen who could be
30:40
Speaker 7: going in the first round. And I'm sure team's grades
30:43
Speaker 7: are all over the place, like even Stewart is fifth
30:45
Speaker 7: or sixth if you look at order on some mock drafts.
30:48
Speaker 7: So it's just about preference. I think a preference draft
30:51
Speaker 7: is a real good way to kind of cap it.
30:53
Speaker 5: Yeah, and you're gonna you're going to take more risks
30:56
Speaker 5: in a year, So Stuart, like listen.
31:00
Speaker 6: Top quarterback and in the second quarterback. Definitely some teams.
31:04
Speaker 5: I don't think I have a top fifty grade on
31:06
Speaker 5: schuer Sanders Tat McMillan, the same thing was said about him,
31:10
Speaker 5: he's the consensus number one receiver, and then the minute
31:12
Speaker 5: they said that about him, the next day, all of
31:14
Speaker 5: a sudden, teams in the top six are one a
31:16
Speaker 5: draft that's that's complete damage control. Like to your point
31:19
Speaker 5: about you know, there's a lot of the media is
31:22
Speaker 5: kind of being used as you know, mouthpieces. So that's
31:26
Speaker 5: why I'm just kind of like anti you just got
31:30
Speaker 5: to kind of fade the consensus. And the earlier you
31:33
Speaker 5: start doing it in the process, the better positions you're
31:35
Speaker 5: gonna have. But oh man, this is just a great
31:38
Speaker 5: a great draft for kind of going against the grain
31:42
Speaker 5: because I think teams legit have like eight to twelve
31:45
Speaker 5: first round grades if that, so it could go any
31:48
Speaker 5: which way.
31:49
Speaker 1: Well, I want to get into Raybon to what your
31:51
Speaker 1: thoughts are right now. I just say one more thing
31:53
Speaker 1: before I ask you that question, is if the Bears
31:56
Speaker 1: draft Shamar Stewart, I am gonna freaking lose it because
32:00
Speaker 1: we know the Bears need a defensive end and if
32:03
Speaker 1: this is how they decide to spend their.
32:05
Speaker 2: Draft capital, I will freak out.
32:07
Speaker 1: Also for pouring one out rip Steve McMichael nineteen eighty five,
32:12
Speaker 1: Bears legend, Ray Bond, give me your.
32:16
Speaker 3: I just gonna say real quick chat.
32:17
Speaker 4: But that's our point though, is you can get a
32:19
Speaker 4: d M in the second round. That's why like this
32:21
Speaker 4: class it's so fun.
32:23
Speaker 1: Let's get Stewart in the second round, number ten.
32:27
Speaker 4: That's all just say for your drafting style, like you
32:29
Speaker 4: not wanting to draft on something that only gets four
32:31
Speaker 4: sacks in college. You don't want to draft that potential.
32:34
Speaker 4: There are more than half the GM's are legit your
32:36
Speaker 4: drafting style, Chad, so you're not an island there. So
32:39
Speaker 4: people might think Chad's being off basis he's not.
32:41
Speaker 1: Like.
32:41
Speaker 3: There's a lot of guys that think the exact same way.
32:44
Speaker 4: But there's always gonna be that young punk, right, the
32:46
Speaker 4: new guy with this computer that's going to come in
32:48
Speaker 4: and be like, no, the numbers say this, and they
32:50
Speaker 4: say that, So yeah, I just want to give both
32:52
Speaker 4: perspective that I agree with Chad that I draft the
32:55
Speaker 4: same way. I would never draft someone that's not a
32:57
Speaker 4: football player first.
32:59
Speaker 3: That to me is the biggest thing. I wanted an athlete,
33:02
Speaker 3: all that, but I want a football player first. So
33:04
Speaker 3: I think Chad's the same way.
33:06
Speaker 1: Listen, Chad loves hitting home runs. Chad loves being a
33:10
Speaker 1: genius for finding a diamond in the rough. I'm looking
33:14
Speaker 1: at three people that I have hired over the course
33:17
Speaker 1: of my career who had no business doing any of
33:20
Speaker 1: the jobs that I hired him for, and it turns
33:22
Speaker 1: out they were genius. Genius moves home runs. But Chad
33:27
Speaker 1: knows that home runs are really hard to hit. And
33:31
Speaker 1: Chad knows that at the end of the day, if
33:32
Speaker 1: you're building a team, you've got to have a lot
33:34
Speaker 1: of people who are really good at what they do
33:37
Speaker 1: and have proven that they're really good at what they
33:40
Speaker 1: do and have proven they can deliver at high numbers
33:44
Speaker 1: over an extended period of time if you're going to
33:47
Speaker 1: spend the money.
33:48
Speaker 2: Chad understands these things.
33:51
Speaker 1: Shamar Stewart, Shamar Stewart, Chad would not be making Shamar
33:54
Speaker 1: Stewart a first round pick Raybond, give me your best
33:58
Speaker 1: bets right now.
34:00
Speaker 5: Okay, so we're doing this, you know, all the day
34:03
Speaker 5: of the draft, so a bunch of over unders are
34:05
Speaker 5: kind of going crazy. So those are the ones I've
34:07
Speaker 5: been attacking today. So I'll run through some pretty quick.
34:12
Speaker 5: Calvin Banks Junior over picked seven and a half at
34:15
Speaker 5: even money. He's still probably the consensus across all mocks.
34:21
Speaker 5: He's still at thirteen, but I think Ken is probably
34:25
Speaker 5: a much more realistic even if you want to buy
34:27
Speaker 5: to the hype, but it's all hype. Then I got
34:29
Speaker 5: Ted McMillan over picked twelve and a half at plus
34:33
Speaker 5: one sixty. I think he's at best probably a fifty
34:38
Speaker 5: to fifty shot to go to the Cowboys. We don't
34:40
Speaker 5: even know if they prefer him to Golden And I
34:45
Speaker 5: think I think the stuff about the Jags and the Raiders,
34:50
Speaker 5: that was all just damage control after you had and
34:54
Speaker 5: like mock drafters saying they had they had low grades
34:57
Speaker 5: on him, and you had teams report teams saying they
35:01
Speaker 5: barely had him cracked in the top fifty. So I
35:05
Speaker 5: think that's great value. Then I got Will Johnson under
35:10
Speaker 5: pick twenty four and a half. I think that the
35:12
Speaker 5: slide has been too crazy. I mean, he's he was
35:15
Speaker 5: going in the top ten at some point and nothing's
35:18
Speaker 5: really changed, But all of a sudden, you know, now
35:21
Speaker 5: he's like he's not even gonna crack the top twenty four.
35:24
Speaker 6: I think that's crazy. And then mill Roe over picked
35:28
Speaker 6: thirty eight and a half.
35:29
Speaker 5: I mean, we're talking about the QB two falling out
35:32
Speaker 5: of the first round. I think it's more of a
35:35
Speaker 5: indictment on the whole quarterback class than the fact that,
35:38
Speaker 5: like Anthony Richardson, light is gonna dart up people's draft boards.
35:44
Speaker 5: So faded him and one more a mecca of Bucah.
35:49
Speaker 6: This one's probably makes me the most nervous.
35:52
Speaker 5: But over pick twenty six and a half at plus
35:54
Speaker 5: one twenty two, or over pick twenty nine and a
35:57
Speaker 5: half at plus two fifteen. I just most times I've
36:01
Speaker 5: seen him mocked have been like pick thirty thirty one,
36:05
Speaker 5: thirty two, or just out of the first round completely,
36:07
Speaker 5: because there's still a lot of potential to kind of
36:11
Speaker 5: jockey for that jockeying for position with the quarterback situations,
36:14
Speaker 5: and there's still I think more defensive players that there's
36:18
Speaker 5: gonna be runs on positions, you know, like corner and
36:22
Speaker 5: Edgdress kind of come into an end where teams are
36:24
Speaker 5: going to feel comfortable kind of waiting on him, so
36:27
Speaker 5: like him to not crack the top thirty either. I
36:30
Speaker 5: think in general, I think I think offensive skill positions
36:34
Speaker 5: are a bit inflated in this draft, top to bottom
36:36
Speaker 5: in the first rounround.
36:38
Speaker 2: Ev I want to get your your latest as well.
36:41
Speaker 1: But let me ask the group right now, based on
36:44
Speaker 1: what we're hearing about Sanders, what you just said about
36:48
Speaker 1: Milroe Raybond, Like, if the number two rated passer isn't
36:53
Speaker 1: even may fall out of the first round, what do
36:57
Speaker 1: we think of under two and a half quarterbacks taken
37:00
Speaker 1: in the first round.
37:04
Speaker 8: I'm a fan.
37:04
Speaker 5: It's kind of yeah, it's it's It's probably just not
37:08
Speaker 5: the best way to attack it, because there is the
37:11
Speaker 5: possibility that, you know, they just if one team trades up,
37:15
Speaker 5: then another team might have to trade up just to
37:17
Speaker 5: make sure because New Orleans is luming.
37:20
Speaker 6: But yeah, I think it's probably more likely than not.
37:23
Speaker 5: That it's round two is what we thought round one
37:27
Speaker 5: was gonna be, and no one moves like anywhere.
37:30
Speaker 8: The interesting thing is, I think I was just saying
37:31
Speaker 8: I think Raymond hit on that though.
37:33
Speaker 7: I've been betting this draft with him for like over
37:35
Speaker 7: a month now, and I don't think I've touched that
37:37
Speaker 7: market of the two and a half quarterbacks because I
37:40
Speaker 7: think there's just different ways to play it. But if
37:43
Speaker 7: I had to bet it, i'd probably say under two
37:45
Speaker 7: and a half just going through some of my bets, though,
37:47
Speaker 7: I've been betting SEC players over fourteen and a half
37:50
Speaker 7: for a while now. It's under two to one, under
37:53
Speaker 7: one to two, so it's minus one ninety five minus
37:55
Speaker 7: one ninety I don't have to go through all the players,
37:58
Speaker 7: but I do think fifteen is the record, it would
38:00
Speaker 7: tie the record, and I see at least fifteen sixteen
38:04
Speaker 7: getting in there. So that's one bet I like I
38:06
Speaker 7: was with raybon on Banks. Listen, I've got Banks top
38:10
Speaker 7: ten at like seven to one, six to one, So
38:12
Speaker 7: at this point over seven and a half is going
38:14
Speaker 7: to be the way that I'm at least going to
38:15
Speaker 7: get back into the market to play it the other
38:17
Speaker 7: way a little bit. Some first round bets I like,
38:22
Speaker 7: So I've been on Kenneth Grant for a long time now.
38:24
Speaker 7: I got him at minus two thirty minus two fifty.
38:27
Speaker 7: He's up to like three fifty at some places, but
38:30
Speaker 7: there is a book out there that'll let you like
38:32
Speaker 7: parlay first round picks, so I think there's at least
38:35
Speaker 7: an ability to put him in a parlay to potentially
38:38
Speaker 7: do something.
38:39
Speaker 8: The other one I like is Chavon Revel. He was
38:42
Speaker 8: three to one yesterday to get in the first round quarterback.
38:44
Speaker 8: It's now plus one eighty.
38:46
Speaker 7: I think anything above like plus one fifty range is
38:49
Speaker 7: still something I would consider. And the other one I
38:51
Speaker 7: keep betting and listen. I don't know because the odds
38:54
Speaker 7: keep coming down, but I'm still a fan. Is Hampton
38:56
Speaker 7: to be the second running back. I just have him
38:59
Speaker 7: overson in almost every scenario.
39:01
Speaker 8: It's down to like minus two fifty. I've seen minus
39:04
Speaker 8: two thirty.
39:05
Speaker 7: I still think at twenty at Denver, and even if
39:07
Speaker 7: they both fall to the end of the first round
39:10
Speaker 7: or second round, I still see Hampton as a better option.
39:13
Speaker 7: So right now those are probably the ones I would consider.
39:17
Speaker 7: I will say this, yesterday I took some dart throws
39:20
Speaker 7: on McMillan at nine and McMillan at ten, complete dart
39:25
Speaker 7: throws eighteen to one at nine, twenty five to one
39:28
Speaker 7: at ten, they are both now sixteen to one and under,
39:31
Speaker 7: so him kind of falling or being I know, the
39:34
Speaker 7: trade up is kind of crazy at this point, but
39:36
Speaker 7: in those slots seem to be getting some momentum. I
39:40
Speaker 7: have some specials, but we can talk about that in
39:42
Speaker 7: a second. Those are direct from bet three sixty five,
39:45
Speaker 7: but right now, again a lot has moved, but those
39:48
Speaker 7: are probably the bets.
39:50
Speaker 2: Simon. Anything to add other than what we've discussed, Yeah.
39:55
Speaker 4: I would say from the beginning of the show what
39:58
Speaker 4: Chris said about, you know, all this crazy movements off
40:02
Speaker 4: people's very late mock drafts of the last couple of days,
40:06
Speaker 4: embrace it like they're talking about the banks play go
40:09
Speaker 4: against the norm.
40:10
Speaker 3: And that quarterback movement, to me is a.
40:13
Speaker 4: Incredibly interesting chat because it was up to what minus
40:17
Speaker 4: three point fifty the over on quarterbacks in the first round.
40:21
Speaker 4: So that is either they're moving that off air, or
40:24
Speaker 4: someone incredibly smart with a lot of money and know
40:28
Speaker 4: and knows what's going on in the league took a
40:30
Speaker 4: position the books respected and moved off it. Now more
40:33
Speaker 4: often not in the draft chat, they move off air.
40:35
Speaker 4: So I'm probably gonna be patient. I'm gonna hope the
40:38
Speaker 4: public ups following and I'm probably going to bet the
40:41
Speaker 4: over two and a half and I'll probably bet the
40:43
Speaker 4: over three and a half just because i know next
40:45
Speaker 4: year's draft class is really strong with the quarterbacks. But
40:47
Speaker 4: we've seen these teams trade back into the first round
40:50
Speaker 4: to get the quarterback just because of the fifth year option, right, Like,
40:53
Speaker 4: you know how many times have we seen that happen.
40:56
Speaker 4: I'll bank on that, But I do agree where it's
40:58
Speaker 4: like we're gonna know pretty right if Sanders falls to
41:01
Speaker 4: twenty one, Chad, I'm probably gonna eat that, eat that bet.
41:04
Speaker 3: That's probably a dead bet because if.
41:06
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh or any of these teams pass on him and
41:08
Speaker 4: he falls out of the first I'm gonna need to
41:11
Speaker 4: get really lucky on Dart and mill Row to hit
41:13
Speaker 4: this bet.
41:14
Speaker 3: So it really is a bet.
41:16
Speaker 4: Where I'm like I said in the beginning of the show,
41:18
Speaker 4: I'm heavy on betting on Sanders, heavy on gent Ye.
41:21
Speaker 4: I need a little bit of luck with Sanders here
41:22
Speaker 4: because every move I've made it's going against me.
41:26
Speaker 3: It just keeps going down.
41:27
Speaker 4: So yeah, the people in the know, I know, Christmas
41:30
Speaker 4: to say something here that I might be way off
41:31
Speaker 4: on Sanders.
41:33
Speaker 7: No.
41:33
Speaker 6: What I was gonna say is.
41:36
Speaker 5: Another position that I'm kind of really strong on is
41:40
Speaker 5: Sanders not to go to Pittsburgh. I think even people
41:43
Speaker 5: that are mocking him there, And that's what a lot
41:45
Speaker 5: of the books are kind of moving off to Simon's point.
41:48
Speaker 5: They're just saying, like, Pittsburgh just needs a quarterback and
41:51
Speaker 5: we don't know what else to do, so we're not
41:52
Speaker 5: going to be right. Yeah, he just makes the least
41:55
Speaker 5: sense from a skill perspective, giving the receipts they have.
42:01
Speaker 5: And I know now they're talking about trade and pickings,
42:02
Speaker 5: so who knows, but I think that it's very Again,
42:06
Speaker 5: he didn't work out for them. It just doesn't happen
42:09
Speaker 5: that teams end up going to a quarterback who they
42:12
Speaker 5: didn't do any pre draft work with. And on top
42:16
Speaker 5: of that, Pittsburgh could have a deal with Aaron Rodgers
42:18
Speaker 5: in place, and they just don't want to tip their hand,
42:21
Speaker 5: and Aaron Rodgers doesn't want to deal with like, you know,
42:23
Speaker 5: more camp and media questions and stuff and pickings questions, and.
42:28
Speaker 6: So they might who knows, but I just don't.
42:31
Speaker 5: I think that's a great way to fade some of
42:33
Speaker 5: like this in a smart way is like Giants plus
42:38
Speaker 5: six fifty you can get his high to draft standards,
42:41
Speaker 5: and the Browns.
42:42
Speaker 6: You could still get a plus five fifty.
42:44
Speaker 5: If Pittsburgh passes on him, the second round might literally
42:47
Speaker 5: just be what we thought the first round was going
42:49
Speaker 5: to be for most of the process, where it's the
42:51
Speaker 5: Browns or the Giants and one of them takes Dart
42:53
Speaker 5: and one of them takes Standards. And I think that's
42:57
Speaker 5: a really smart way to attack it, because I just
43:00
Speaker 5: do not think that that Pittsburgh makes a lot of
43:03
Speaker 5: sense for uh should.
43:06
Speaker 8: Ing with that thought process.
43:08
Speaker 7: Milroe probably slides as well, which is why the thirty
43:10
Speaker 7: eight and a half that you posted I think is
43:12
Speaker 7: interesting because if you believe that they slide, he's gonna
43:15
Speaker 7: slide as well.
43:16
Speaker 6: Yeah, we're gonna talk about shock.
43:17
Speaker 5: We're here and like Milroe teams have probably second third
43:20
Speaker 5: round grade on him. But yeah, like if you just
43:23
Speaker 5: look at the draft order, who's really trying to trade
43:26
Speaker 5: up for him?
43:26
Speaker 6: Even and that like it just.
43:27
Speaker 5: Doesn't none of this quarter Quarterbacks are usually just inflated.
43:31
Speaker 5: There's the one odd year where sometimes a bunch of
43:33
Speaker 5: quarterbacks go, but generally speaking, and books can choose who
43:37
Speaker 5: they post, and like you don't see over unders on
43:39
Speaker 5: like Tonrely or guys like fringe first rounders that you
43:43
Speaker 5: could that would kind of take the place of some
43:45
Speaker 5: of these inflated guys.
43:47
Speaker 6: So just don't get quotam in a hype's you would.
43:50
Speaker 3: Agree that, Chris, there's so many teams you wouldn't be shocked.
43:52
Speaker 4: Like the Jets taking Sanders at seven ohet, we wouldn't
43:55
Speaker 4: shock you just because they're a desperate team with a
43:58
Speaker 4: crazy owner. So like that, there's a lot of that
44:00
Speaker 4: where it's like there are teams who need quarterbacks justin fields.
44:03
Speaker 4: He's not the answer to the Jets future, right, So
44:05
Speaker 4: I do think that part's interesting when there was a
44:07
Speaker 4: bunch of dark horse teams willn't even know about that.
44:09
Speaker 3: Could just, you know, take one of these quarterbacks.
44:12
Speaker 1: Guys in less than twenty four hours, we're going to
44:16
Speaker 1: know the answers.
44:18
Speaker 2: Unless we're going to be we're going to be geniuses.
44:21
Speaker 8: We might not know, Yeah, sud we may not know,
44:25
Speaker 8: but yes, a lot.
44:28
Speaker 6: About any quarterback you talked about it.
44:30
Speaker 1: If Sor hasn't been drafted, we'll know a lot more
44:32
Speaker 1: than we did right now.
44:34
Speaker 4: That's fair as Steelers just moved the minus one fifty
44:37
Speaker 4: to take Sanders so that another mock.
44:40
Speaker 6: Came in and they didn't know where else that's right.
44:44
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