Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Gambling Recap | Week 15

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NFL Gambling Recap | Week 15 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: is our NFL Week fifteen Sunday recap episode. I am
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Chad Nolman. I am joined by my bff, my companion,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: my Campadre, my co host, my partner in winning professional better,
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter et oh so.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: On a man, Hello, hot Chad dude.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: At various points during the Witching Hour today, that three
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: to four window that Scott Hansen always talks about on
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Red Zone, we were four and oh to start the
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: day with our first four games. We were two and two,
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: we were one and three, we were four and oh again,
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: and then we wound up three and one to start
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: the day with Buffalo two and a half against the
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Cowboys in the late game. That was never a contest
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: to form one day overall with a crazy, crazy second
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: half in the early window, We're going to get into
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: all of it. Also, by the way, swept the board
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: on our foxhol Simon says, big balls, exec decision. It's lovely,
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: lovely day. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: by BET three six five. Bet three six five doesn't
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  Speaker 1: it's never ordinary at bet three six five. Must be
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: twenty one or older and present in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana,
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply, all right.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: We at Carolina plus three and a half, Doozy, Chicago
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: plus three and a half, roller coaster, Tampa Bay plus
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: three and a half as we expected, never a sweat
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Tennessee minus two and a half. Boy that was kicking
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: the dick, as I like to say. And we had
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Buffalo two and a half in the late window. That
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: was never a problem. So Simon, this was a week
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: where where we tried something different. We totally pulled the
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: trigger much earlier. I called you Wednesday or texted you
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Wednesday and said, I want to go in now because
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: I was afraid the Bears were going to move and
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: the Panthers were going to move, because the lines were
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: starting to move on those games they had been at
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: three and a half, they were starting to move, So
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: we grabbed the three and a half in the contest.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: Turns out what the Bears that mattered quite a bit.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: We were both a little bit anxious about the Titans today.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: We briefly discussed putting in the Pats in the Rams,
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: but we didn't want to lose the Bears at three
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: and a half. We stuck with it end of the day,
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: made all the right calls, which feels nice, right.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: I looked at it that the Titans died so that
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: the Bears could fly, right. We needed we needed to
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: keep the Titans in just because we had the three
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: and a half in the Bears, and we kind of
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: rolled the dice and I got We talked about it. It
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: was like we took that Titans line thinking it was
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: going to be one of the worst quarterbacks ever. Yeah,
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: we didn't think it was the case. Keenum, a savvy
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: Vett who you know. He did what we thought he
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: was going to do late. He played dead and he
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: came back. But yeah, as far as a four on
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: one day can go, the only regret not listening to
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: Chad on the Rams would have been a five and
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: oh day because that was the switch out right. We
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: switched out the Rams on Tuesday or Wednesday night. Yeah,
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: tough miss, But the public, they keep they keep on rolling.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Chad, dude, you want to read the stat from Evan here,
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: it's kind of amazing. I got it, I got it.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: We fifteen favorites eleven and three straight up, nine three
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: and two against the spread since week eight favorites eighty
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: eight and thirty eight straight up sixty one, fifty and
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: five against the spread, fifty five percent clip somehow. Because
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: we're underdog players, we got lucky this week a little
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: bit and got all three underdogs that covered in the Panthers,
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: the Bears, and the Bucks. Let's get to it. Atlanta
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: Carolina was the first one. This game closed at three.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: We got it at three and a half. In the contest,
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: it was our big balls bet of the week. We
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: had to go back to the well on the Panthers
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: as much as Matt Mitchell told us in the chat,
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: we couldn't do it as much as people watching the podcast.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: But were like getting sick over it.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, it went exactly
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: as we expected, which is like ugly game, ugly weather,
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: and I honestly felt like it was going our way
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: the whole game until the fourth quarter. Let me give
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: you a scenario. Okay, the Panthers had just made it
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: seven to six with thirteen minutes left, Neither team had
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: done anything offensively all day, driving rain and wind. Desmond
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: Ridder goes down the field twelve plays, six minutes, Panthers
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: eighteen yard line. In that moment, since with my seventeen
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: year old son junior in high school on the couch,
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: I say out loud, if they score, we're done. We
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: need a turnover right now, and my son, like I
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: think he was with me, he kind of grunted. I thought,
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: next play, Desmond Ridder throws a pick and I'm yelling,
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: can you believe I just call that? He didn't respond
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: at all. He was sound asleep. I have no idea
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: like what he did last night when he got home.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: I was sound asleep. The Panthers then follow up the
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Falcon's twelve play drive with an eighteen play, seven minute,
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: thirty second drive from then ten yard line ninety yards
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: to win the game.
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: Only Schnikey s, yeah, a game though that I was
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: never scared because what you just said, though, it was
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: always one possession away and they get all the way
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: down there, it's seven to three, and Feeling who catches everything,
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: had a really random drop right at the goal line
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: to score or maybe get a first down, and they
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: kick the three. I'm just like, okay, well at least recovering,
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: and now we have outside chance of hitting this round robin.
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: Here them going down and scoring, and you said it
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: like Ritter's making huge throws, big plays, They're getting all
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: the way down the field.
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: And I was right there with you. I was like,
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: you have to kick three here.
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: We might be dead because I don't know if they'll
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: go for three because there's not that much time left.
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: And you're right, we finally had a bounce go our way.
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: They're long overdue for one of those, and yeah, it
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: felt good where it's like, I totally a sad why
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: people were so sick of betting that Carolina team. And
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: hopefully they don't have any good spots coming up, because
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: I don't enjoy it either, but I mean, I'd always
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: say it. There's certain times you have to play certain spots.
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: And that was such a spot, betting a divisional dog
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: at home in bad weather, and it played out exactly
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: as we predicted. Right raider struggles outdoors on the road,
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: and he struggled outdoors on the road.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: Turnover worthy plays this year according to Pro Football Focus
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: twenty three, Mac Jones and Josh Jobs twenty two. Desmond
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: ritter Sam Howell. So he did exactly what we expected
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: him to do, exactly when we needed him to do it,
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: and somehow he hadn't done it in the previous fifty
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: three minutes of a driving, wind and rain football game,
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: which is astonishing. Kudos, by the way, not just to us,
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: to Sean Kerner, who called it and convinced me and
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: sort of described exactly why it might go the Panthers way.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: He talked about all the injuries to the offensive line
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: for the Falcons, which has had a very good run
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: game all year, fifty two rush yards on thirty one attempts,
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: the fewest rush yards on thirty plus attempts since two
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: thousand and eleven and yeah, I feel like we've done
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: all we can do with the Carolina Panthers.
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly. I'm hoping we don't have to keep betting
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: on them. But we'll see, we'll see what the numbers are.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: We'll see. We're gonna take a look. I can't remember
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: who they're playing. Maybe Evan or someone can throw it
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: in the chat. I don't think I put it in
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: our Week sixteen look ahead. I don't think I made
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: a note of it.
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: Playing the Packers at home, Oh God, probably gonna.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: Like them, honestly, because it's like it's almost like the
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: schedule makers try to make it as difficult as possible.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, it's unbelievable. Go at Cleveland, Chicago's at three
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: and a half point underdog. This was where a Simon says,
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: you nailed it. You said better at three and a half,
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: closed at three. It mattered very much.
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, tough, tough, tough beat.
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: I was sick to my stomach, like it felt like
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: we had at the whole game.
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: Joe Flacco was Joe flaccoing.
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: We had to turnovers, and then you know, justin Field
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: just kept making little mistakes on the fourth down run,
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: there was just a couple of different plays where when
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: he should have ran, he passed, and when he should
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: have passed he ran, and just he just had an
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: off day. And I think Barry's fans could finally take
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: a deep breath and realize, this is why you can't
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: pay this man as much as you want to. He's
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: still gonna need another couple of years to build. And
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: so does the team get Williams with that first pick
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: or whatever pick you might get now, Chad, now you've
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: got two wins with Carolina.
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, just whatever.
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: The quarterback is up top there, it's just the move
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: for you guys, Like I think Justin Fields has tons
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: of talent. Whoever he goes to next, maybe they can
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: fix them. And they're getting a great steal. But we
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: see their struggle with him, right, He's so inconsistent week
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: the week. You don't really know what you're getting from him.
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: So in a game where your defense gets you seven,
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: you should win that game.
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: And it was all there.
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: But like we talk all the time about this Bears team,
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: they just don't know how to win. It's been a
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: couple of years now with this team. They just they're
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: in these games, they're dominating these games and by the
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: end of the game they lose it somehow. It's just
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: a team that does not know how to win and
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: close games.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Multiple third and shorts, fourth and shorts where they could
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: not convert. They would pitch the ball outside, run Justin
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Fields on a bootleg in the second half first half,
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: twelve of twenty one for one hundred yards and a touchdown.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: Also the pick, but that was on a hail mary.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Second half. Let me give you his number. Second half.
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: So that was weird too, That hell Mary. Why they
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: just try to kick the three there? That was a
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: weird thing.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: It's like I wrote in my notes. For twenty nine
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: minutes and fifty nine seconds, the Bears looked like a
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: professional football team. They played well, they executed well. Even
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: on that drive to get close to field goal arrange
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: in the final minute, Justin Fields made all the right throws.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: He hit people in stride, got him out of bounds.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: They were within field goal arrange. So on the last
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: second they decided they're a hail mary instead of kicking
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: a field goal, and what are they afraid like it's
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: going to be blocked, They're going to return it for
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: a touchdown. That's the percentage of that is so small
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: versus the percentage to make a touchdown, to score a
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: touchdown and convert a hail Mary. And then in the
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: second half things go haywire. Justin Fields in the second
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: half seven of twenty nine for sixty six yards. Oh
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: my god, he was twenty one of forty in the game.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry, seven of nineteen for sixty six.
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: All right, thank god, I was like this. I'd love
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: to say, how to.
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: Be have.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: I miss added seven or nineteen for sixty six yards.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: But we talked so much about the Bears this week,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: and it was everything in one game. Field was amazing
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: in the first half, made plays that kept them in
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: the game, that got them that first touchdown, and then
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: he was terrible. And the defense in the first half
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: was amazing, but in the second half gave up all
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: the big plays with all these bad calls. We have
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: three weeks to determine if Field is the QB, Eberflus
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: is the coach, and all we have today is more questions.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: It's kind of astonishing.
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: No, you got your answer. You got your answer. Brother.
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: That was a game where you're playing against an injured,
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: banged up, hungry playoff team. And you know, if again,
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: if you have leaders of men, that's a game you win. Like,
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: that's a game you win because now you're in your
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: own control of your own playoff run. And it was
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: a game they had to have, Like it felt like
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: that was the first real view we had of fields
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: in a playoff game.
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: That's to take the number there.
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: It was just like, this is going to be a
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: really close game, and it played out just as we
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: had hoped. And then you know, that fourth quarter just
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: all fell apart. So yeah, just a brutal loss, but
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: you know, happy we got the cover.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: My slumbering son did wake up in time to watch
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: the end of that game, and his only question was,
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: why can't the Bears just be a normal football team?
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no, there's no fun in normal.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: It's so upsetting for him. I've given him a life
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: of misery. The Bears led seventeen to seven entering the
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: fourth quarter and lost. They are three and three straight
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: up since the start of last year when leading by
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: ten plus points entering the fourth quarter. They're five hundred
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: the rest of the NFL one ninety two sixteen and one.
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: Wow.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: Chicago's defense three picks, four sacks, one point six yards
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: per rush allowed. His only hosted those numbers one other
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: time in the past thirty three years. That was in
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: two thousand and eight. Unreal, but this team could not
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: close the deal. Speaking of not oh, actually, let's talk
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: about Tampa Bay Flowers for Simon. You nailed this one.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: From the second we saw it. You were on it.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: We got to take it. You're in. I followed your lead,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: had no opinion on it. This was a year my
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: guy play. First half has some classic Baker moments. Last
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: minute in the first time, last minute, the Bucks have
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: a first down in the packer's territory. Baker gets sacked,
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: the Bucks have a holding. It's second and twenty nine.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: Baker drops a perfect pass to Godwin for twenty.
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: Four twenty five yards on the field.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: They kick a field goal, and then the second half,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: Baker was the player we've seen in Spurts this entire year.
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: It's like he took one part, the one good part
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: of the previous fourteen games they've played, put it all
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: into one game twenty two or twenty eight for three
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: eighty one, no picks, four tuddies.
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: I mean, wow, Like, think about how crazy that is
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: In Lambow in December, like that's it's crazy, and like, again,
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: props to the pros this summer.
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: They kept talking with this Tampa team. I laughed them off.
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: I didn't want to hear it. I didn't really believe it.
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: And they've been far and above the best team in
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: that division.
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: It's crazy. Every week they just play so well.
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: So yeah, what what a what an incredible run for
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: Tampa And uh, those are not those are the fun
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: bets on those kind of dogs where even even at halftime,
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: it's just like, we're not going to lose this three
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: and a half, Like if the Green Bay wins this,
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: there's somehow gonna win by three. So you know, took
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: a lot of shit not from you, but from another
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: professionals on Saturday guys being like, that's a bad bet.
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: You can't fade this Green Bay team at home in
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: this position. And sure enough, I saw a couple of
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: books at four to four and a half before kicking off,
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: like a lot of money came in on Green Bay.
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: Before kickoff, and yeah, that was what you said.
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: Classic Baker game, like when he had that little turnover
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: in the first quarter or whatever it was, and they
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: got the touchdown off of it.
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: It was like, Okay, this is the game, this kind
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: of game we're gonna have for Baker.
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: We floppy with the ball, but no, like he's stuck
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: in there, and we talked about all the time.
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: It's just the guy is so onto the next play.
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: He's very, very veteran savvy with that where it's like
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: he makes mistakes, doesn't let it bog him down.
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: He keeps playing his style of football.
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: And we said it coming to the year, if he
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: uses Mike Evans and Godwin as they should be used,
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: you can't cover them both, right, There's so many have
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: to shift the coverage too. And this year Mike Evans,
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: I don't know how many touchdowns he's up to, but
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: it might be eight or nine touchdowns. It's like Baker Brady.
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: I mean, there wasn't that much of a step down,
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: shockingly from Brady to Baker. So I don't trust the coaching.
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: I still don't trust Todd Bowles. But that's a really
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: fun team in Tampa that you know they're driving their
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: leaving that division, right, it's either them or the Saints
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: at this point. It's it's pretty incredible what they've done.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: Well, I got news for you buddy. Next week they're
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: home underdogs against the Jags. Baker is twenty five and
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: twenty one against the spread as an underdog, which totally
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: makes sense. But that Bucks are seven and one?
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: What's that? He's twenty what is he as a dog?
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: Twenty five twenty one against the spread as an underdog?
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: Okay, that's that's still pretty good.
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Bucks are seven and one against the spread on
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: the road this year.
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: No, it's been crazy. And the only loss, and I
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: bet I've been bet all of them.
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: The only loss we have is that forty nine Ers
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: game where yep, it was Baker's first turnover in the
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: red zone in like two years. So pretty incredible run
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: by this team.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: Baker had a perfect passer rating at lamb Aaron Rodgers
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: is the only other person to do that at Lambefield.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: Twenty twenty three. What a bizarre year.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: It's such a bizarre freaking year where we are in
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: love with Baker Mayfield. It's just amazing. Houston, Tennessee. So look,
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: we had Tennessee minus two and a half. This was
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: our sort of weird tricky one for the week. Tennessee
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: gave up a ten point lead. Tennessee gave up a
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: touchdown lead, honestly got it felt like at times, especially
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter, Texans defensive tackle Malie Collins was
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: in the backfield more than Derrick Henry because Will Levis
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: was sacked seven times, and nearly every single one of
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: them felt like it was the exact wrong movement for
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: him to be sacked. It was excruciating to watch that
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: gam dwindle away.
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: Oh they got to the Titans.
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: The Titans got to Houston's forty yard line like five
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: times in that second half. Oh yeah, every time what
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: you said happened happened where he got sacked, they got
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: out of field goal rain, they had the punt.
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: Just it felt really good, like that first half playout
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: just as I wanted it to. Like you said, it
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: was thirteen to three, you know, looking at it, I
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: was like, Okay, if we get a touchdown here the
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: second half, we'll win this bet.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: Like we'll cover this one.
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: But we talked about this morning, like when they announced
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: his case, Keenum, That's what we didn't want to hear
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: because it's just veterans play these kind of games where
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: he's dog shit, he's not that good, but can he
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: put together a couple of drives for you compared to
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: some idiot like Davis Mills.
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that was the difference.
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: Like the guy came in and he played bad, and
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: then when he had to turn it on at the
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: fourth quarter, he turned it on and like you said,
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: they needed thirteen points in that second half, and he
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: got the thirteen and then he got the three in overtime,
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: and it's like, that's how you have these kind of
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: veteran guys where you know, I love Tommy DeVito's story
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: and it's been really fun. He's been winning games too.
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: But this is why most teams want to go these
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: veteran guys from like old Pass where it's like you
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: can just trust him where he made those dumb turnovers
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: but didn't really get to him right.
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: He kind of stayed with it.
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: And that was the sickest part is we had in
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: overtime he threw a pick and the guy dropped it
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: and it was like on their four and I was like,
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: that was it, Like that would.
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: Have won us the game.
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: So tough loss, but you know that's that's life. When
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: you bet these coin flip games. It's like we had
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: a good number. It felt like it was gonna lay
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: on three. We had the two and a half. Didn't
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: get there.
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: Cost me a lot, but I felt good all week.
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: It was like I had the best.
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: Of the number because it was three, three and a
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: half basically from what Thursday Friday on.
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, good good win by Houston.
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: That's a team that's a playoff team, so pretty pretty
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: incredible win by.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: Them against my better judgment. I did also bite on
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: the New York Giants when it got to plus six
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: this morning, and as I was doing it, I said
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: to myself, what am I doing? I met, you never
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: win the bets that you've been against all week and
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: it moves half a point on Sunday morning and you
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: decide to pull the trigger. And I probably do that
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: like once or twice every week, and it always like
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: it eats into your bank roll annoyingly. And I knew
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: the Giants weren't gonna be a right side. They were
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: a public dog. I don't know why I got swayed,
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: but I did it. And it was an other similar scenario,
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: like at some point the magic fades for the young quarterbacks. Unfortunately,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: will Levis hasn't had much magic to begin with. Dallas
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: at Buffalo Buffalo minus two and a half. This was
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: the exact decision. They were just a team possessed from
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: the beginning. James Cook wouldn't go down like Josh Allen
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: wouldn't go down.
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: Alert here for Josh Allen.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: Looking for He's he's an there.
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: He's a football player through and through every year.
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: But there's nothing there. We gohan drums an excuse me, touchdown?
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone?
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: Goodness, there's no fear, no way.
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: He was being.
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: Pizza.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: He's still going, Oh my god.
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: After the demands to do something about this album, Reachers
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: and Baker and the Louder.
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: They were hitting every single Dallas defender so freaking hard.
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: They had so much attitude. We're going to talk a
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: lot about playoff scenarios as we get to the final
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: three weeks, because in the past three games, the Bills
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: nearly beat the Eagles at home in Philly. They beat
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: Kansas City at home. They throttled the Cowboys and likely
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: ended Dak Prescott's MVP campaign. The next two weeks they
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: have the Chargers and the Patriots. The Miami Dolphins have
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: the Ravens and the Cowboys. So this is going to
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: get interesting real fast.
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: Interesting that at this point of the season that I
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: feel like everyone's on the Bills right even before that game,
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: I feel like everyone's coming around on that's like, yeah,
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: this is where you play the Bills. And you know,
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: we always talk about their certain spots. The Cowboys just
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: they had a lot of turnover a look, they also
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: really didn't played anyone. They kind of ran through a
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: gauntlet of teams that you know, it's nothing against the Cowboys,
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: like they did their job. Dak played well, it wasn't
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: his fault, right, he played well in those games they
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: beat those bad teams. But in this game when everything
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: wasn't perfect and they're not turnovers, yeah, like it's just
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: really tough. And you know, the thing I always thought
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: Dallas had was they were kind of like big bullies
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: and they got bullied. I mean from the get go
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: they were getting bullied, and the Bills just looked bigger,
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: and they looked fresher, they looked like they wanted to
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: be there. Where Dallas you know, what was it, fourteen
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: to three? They were just shocked, like they didn't seem
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: like they were into it at all. So yeah, those
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: those are the fun belts, right, like you bet the side.
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: We take shit all week, especially from Cowboy fans who
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: were just like, yeah, people don't get it. This is
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: our year and it's just like you guys know better,
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: Like this is what this Cowboys team does all the
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: time to you guys. So yeah, I'm honestly shocked that
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: Dak played so bad. Uh, because you know, say what
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: you want about the Bills, they do have all those
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: injuries their defense, like there are they aren't They're in
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: a team that should just shut you down and hold
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: you at ten points.
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: So that was the biggest takeaway. It was just.
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: That was a bad game by Dallas. And now we
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: talked about they have two tough games coming up. You know,
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: am I back Dallas next week because they're going to
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: be the value to the public opinion now and this
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: might be the time to buy in them. So to
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: a terrible spot for Dallas, but you know, they're still
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: in control to get the fifth seed. Now the Eagles
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: have it banged up, hurts, maybe they can still fight
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: and win their own win the division still. But yeah,
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: this was a huge game for Dallas where it would
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: have decided DAK getting MVP most likely then win the division,
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: them have having a chance to be the one seed,
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: and all the naysayers, everyone like me who hate on
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: DAK and were like the guys that are playing a
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: conference game, we would just have had to shut our
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: mouths into the playoffs. Now we can open our mouths again.
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: It's just like same old Dak. We were right.
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: We were waiting here in the bushes like a snake,
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: and we were right.
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I think anyone at this point knows if
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: we're if it's Dallas going to Philadelphia, if it's Dallas
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: going to play the forty nine ers in the playoffs.
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: I think everyone's you know, in agreements where it's like,
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: most likely you're not going to back Dallas, but there's
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: still a team that if they get in, there's still
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: could be a path for them to get there.
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: So I'm not gonna totally give up on.
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: Dallas yet, But it was just if you're if you're
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: a Dallas believer, that was as worse as it could
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: possibly be in that game.
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: MVP ads Brock Perty minus one fifty, Lamar plus three
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: p fifty, Dak plus eight hundred Josh Allen ten to
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: one hurts fourteen to one. Christian McCaffrey. We're going to
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: talk about this too on Tuesday. Christian McCaffrey, fourteen to one.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: So very interesting movement in the playoff, in the in
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: the playoff opportunities, with the way the schedule is lining up,
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: and really interesting MVP odds to think about it. Well,
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: we're going to talk about think about as well. We're
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: going to talk about all of that. As a reminder,
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: catch every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube. For
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: those enjoying on YouTube right now, don't forget to give
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: us a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: page again. To recap our Foxhole Rams minus six and
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: a half, Carolina plus three, Buffalo minus two and a half,
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: Chicago plus three and a half. Simon midway through, I
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: would say at four point thirty, if you had said
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: to me, you're gonna sweat your rams minus six and
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: a half at the end of the day more than
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: your bills minus two and a half, I would have
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: paid you a dollar right then, because Ron Rivera, he
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: almost took it and then he giveth.
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just how the books do it.
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: Because that line did not make sense all week, and
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: I wanted to be on it with you because I
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: had it at seven and a half. Didn't understand why
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: it was it seven and a half. The public was
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: hammering it. The books just held steady at six and
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: a half like they knew something. Uh, they didn't like
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: you covered it, but yeah, it was it should.
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: Have been a sweat.
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: It was just it was a classic letdown spot for
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: the Rams And yeah, that was that was crazy, Like
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: I really can't believe Ron Rivera didn't go for two.
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: Uh, and then the extra point gets blocked.
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: It was just just beautiful karma for anyone that's like
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: in the analytics and just the old dinosaur coaches who
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: are slowly dying out from the league like Ron Rivera's
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: in the last ones. It's just so dated. Me and
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: Chap we've been on the other side that we were on.
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: Oh yeah, I don't know what week it was. We
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: had them though, we needed them to go for two
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: and they didn't go for it, and it's just like,
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: you know, I'm just so glad I blacklisted them, Like
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: it's just nice knowing off to back them in this contest.
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: But meanwhile, Sean McVay did go for two, and that's
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: why we where we would have ended up covering if
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: if they had made that extra point. Our round robin
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: this week was Carolina, Chicago, Tampa Bay, New York Giants,
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: and the Jags, so the Bears could have made it
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: pretty tasty earlier in the day. I believe we skipped
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: survivor this week because everyone's out of it. So our
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: Sunday Night Football picks and leans for those joining live.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: You've been on Baltimore all week. I haven't made any
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: bets in this game other than Lamar Jackson under his
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: passing yardage total. Based on Sean Krumer's advice, I'm convinced
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: me today you're still feeling Baltimore. It's now I think
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: at minus four.
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: Wow, yeah, it took him. It just got down to three.
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: Just felt like it was too much movement. But four
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: four is probably right where the numbers should be. So
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: I'd say if you missed a three and a half
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: or the three, I think the guys, Yeah, they gave
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: out the underwright, but yeah, just I like the Ravens.
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: With the weather and everything in this spot, I just
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: hard for me to trust to banged up Trevor Lawrence
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: and the Jaguars offense. So yeah, pretty pretty chalky by
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: me to take the Ravens here. But I got it
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: in a minus three. It's up to minus four, so
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: apparently I.
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: Remember number rush under is forty two and a half eighteen.
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: Miles plus that's moved too.
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: Then, Yeah, that's gone up. Actually it was. It was
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: lower earlier than one, unders cashing it a very significant
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: percentage with wins of eighteen plus or more. That would
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: include today in Carolina, today in Cleveland, so be on
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: the lookout for that. It's why I bet Lamar Jackson
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: under his passing yardage total. Monday Night Football getting a
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: little funky. This line was at four. It's moving pretty
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: fast because of the news about Jalen Hurts. We don't
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: know if we're getting Drew Locke and Marcus Mariota or
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: what the what, what the heck is going to be
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: happening here? So I haven't played this game at all.
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm trying to see right now with the if
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: there's any bigger update.
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: But I mean it came.
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: Out this morning Seattle plus three.
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Hurts is sick. You know.
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: The number dropped from three and a half foard to
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: a lot of books down to three, and we might
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: be getting a Mariota.
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: Mariota verse Drew Locke, Like, I just can't as an
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: Eagles fan. It's like weird to say right.
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: Now, where my my defensive coordinator apparently is Matt Patricia
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: and my quarterback is Marcus Mariota, Like this is hell.
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: So hopefully it's just just this week for Mariota, but
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: it's it's surreal where it's like, we need this win.
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: We can't lose games, and you know, I'm all in.
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: I believe in this team. I'll take the three. But
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: Mariota is bad, and the Eagles historically have been very
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: bad in Seattle. I don't think we've won there in
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: like fifteen years, Is that right, Evan? Isn't it some
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: crazy stuff?
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: I think Pete Carroll has won seven straight games against
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: the Eagles.
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and I just know we don't win in Seattle,
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: like in my lifetime.
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: We just don't win there.
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: So pretty pretty bad if you're an Eagles fan, if
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: you're being in Seattle. Yeah, the number, despite all the
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: money coming on the Eagles, was coming down all week, right,
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: No one knew why, and obviously the pros they knew
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: about the Hertznees.
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: So yeah, pretty pretty interesting.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: Game now on Monday night, Simon, can you name the
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: fats that's growing ticketing app in the United States?
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: Game Time?
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: That's right, it's our sponsor, game Time. I love game
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: Time for two reasons. One they sponsored this show. Number two,
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: I actually use game Time to buy my tickets. That's right, folks,
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: I bought tickets this past week on game Time. I'm
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: going to tell you what game I bought them for.
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: They've got amazing last minute deals on all sorts of
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: ticket it's including pro and college games. I'm actually opening
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: the game Time app right now from my house. You
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: can get into a Yukon men's basketball game this upcoming
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: weekend for less than eighty five dollars. Yukon National champions
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: top five team. I bought Yukon basketball tickets on game
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: Time this week for January when they're going to be
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: hosting their rivals Creighton. Listen. No matter where you live,
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: download the game Time app. Get out have some fun
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: this week. Go sweat your bets live and in person.
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: You can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off your
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: first purchase. Terms apply again. Just download the app and
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  Speaker 1: enter code favorites for twenty dollars off last minute tickets
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: lowers price guaranteed. Simon I opened up the Action Network
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: app midway through the afternoon late afternoon games to see
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: where we would want to make some early leans. First
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: game on the board, Buffalo Bills nearly two touchdown favorites
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: at the Los Angeles Chargers. How do we not fade
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: the Bills here? I mean, like dominant showings back to
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: back weeks, the near win against the Eagles. The Chargers
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: just fired their coach. They got a backup QB. They're
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: at home. Dude, we have I wish we had a
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: drop for this, the dead cat bounce. We got dead
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: cat fever. Yeah yeah, yeah, by the way, by the way,
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: by the way, they're now fourteen point underdogs, the Chargers. Stucky. Literally,
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: as I'm looking, just put in the Chargers plus fourteen
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: in the Action Network AP.
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a classic spot, right.
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: It's a short week for the Bills and they have
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: to travel from east to west. They came off the
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: Hive Highs by blown out Dallas, and we expect them
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: have let down game. Thank god, we can't put this
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: in the contest because this is such a bet we'll make.
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, it would be an awful, awful experience.
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: But this is the spot we have to bet, especially
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: this week after all the big dogs lost, right like
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: the Jets blown out, Patriots blown out, the who else?
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: We have Cardinals blown out? Like the public is just
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: have in their way right now. But these are the
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: kind of games that catch them right. That's why they're
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: making this spread so big. I bet you if it
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: wasn't like it's been these last couple of weeks, this
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: will be what twelve and a half thirteen?
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: Maybe?
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, they're just saying, no, we'll hang a fourteen. Please,
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: anyone come and take this fourteen. So I'm right there
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: with you. I'll grab the plus fourteen, but wouldn't be
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: shocked if this goes up some more. I mean, the
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: bills they just I mean, they just look like bullies
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: today and stick you know, say what you want.
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: About the kid.
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: He looked totally lost against the Raiders. I don't care
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: how much extra time they've had to prepare. There's nothing
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: that's going to fix that kid, right, He's just he
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: looked a little lost. So taking the plus four team,
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: me and you here, we're just playing the trends, right, Chad,
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: There's not much thinking behind other than playing the trends.
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: By the way, there's most places are thirteen and a half.
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: I don't know where stuck you got that number. I'm
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: with you. I might wait a second to see if
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: it goes up.
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: I'm fourteen.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: What's that say?
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: I'm hoping that's what you see this note from here
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: from Evan. What's that Bill's won by seventeen? The Chargers
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: lost by seventeen plus teams when they face and that
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: was exact scenario one hundred and eleven seventy six and
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: four ats, so fifty nine percent.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: So I mean I'm a little worried you want to
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: play the Charger. Let's talk about this for a second.
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: At thirteen and a half, I kind of want to
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: take it because I'm worried the wise guys are just
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: going to come in and take the thirteen and a
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: half since it already was at fourteen.
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: For a second, yeah, I would say I just took
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: I texted someone to go take go get the fourteen.
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: It's it's fourteen or I bet three sixty five, So
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: I'll take it. But like you said, I'm assuming that
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: professionals will come in on this one, but I just
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: won't shocked come Saturday. It's a standalone game. This is
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: gonna be in everyone's teasers, right, everyone's.
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: Gonna have this teased. Yeah, so it's just it's gonna
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: be a leg of everyone's parlay.
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, No, you're right, you're right. Okay, what do you
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: think of Dallas plus two at Miami?
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: I want to take it, Like I just said, I
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: want to take it, and like that was my first
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: bet I made. It was two and a half. I
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: took the two. Now it's down to one and a half.
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: So like that number one already on Dallas. Yeah, like
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: I'll take this now. And if Tyree comes back, maybe
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: my thinking will change. But that was you know, that
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: was the perfect game for Miami. Right they could run
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: the ball with ease. And if they can run the
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: ball with ease against Dallas, I think we just saw
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: what Dallas's weaknesses, right, Like Cook had a career a
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: day against them today running the ball and Miami that's
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: the fear with them, Like they have a really good
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: run blocking scheme, that Shanahan scheme, that's where McDaniel's runs through.
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: So moster just set their record Miami most rushing touchdowns
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: in a season with three games left. They're just an
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: incredible run blocking team and despite having all those injuries
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: to the offensive line, it didn't matter. We expect the
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: Dallas d line should give, like, should dominate that Miami
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: offensive line. So really, really interesting game. I have to
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: dive into more, but we've already missed the two. Like
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: if I if the Dallas had the two two and
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: a half, I would say grabbing now. But it's already gone,
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: so we can wait to break that down.
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: Tuesday, I looked at Detroit Minnesota.
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: Is that line?
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: What's that?
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: Said? What a crazy line?
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: What a crazy that was at four and a half
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: when I first saw it, Wow, it's what I said.
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: Wow.
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And so to me, like Detroit on the road,
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: but it's an indoor game. My instinct was take Minnesota
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: because their defense has just been so freaking good. It's
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: so good, so good, so good, so good. So I
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: lean Minnesota here that and I want to get it
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: before it moved down.
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's crazy, it's three now, so jesus, yeah, I
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: want to take Detroit.
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: Like, yeah, me too. At three.
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: But that's scary, that's gonna be every Joe public in
• 38:26
  Speaker 3: the world. So well, I'm gonna throw a little bet
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: on it just in case it goes back up, and
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: then if it does go back to four and a half,
• 38:34
  Speaker 3: I'll try to hit I'll try to hit that weird
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: four in middle. But I want to be on Minnesota,
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: like your gut instinct to go on Minnesota's right here.
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: I want to be on Minnesota. But yeah, Detroit, they've.
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: Been good to me in this spot, like they've been
• 38:48
  Speaker 3: good as a public favorite at like this season they
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: have been. So I'm shocked it's already down to three.
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: That's that's that's crazy line movement here for Sunday night.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: That I think the fact that the game is indoors
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: changes it a little bit. We've seen just how good
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: Jared Goff is indoors. And look, the one thing we've.
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: Talked against what a fourth stringer quarterback?
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah exactly, And like we've talked about Frank Ragnow and
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: his importance as a center for the Lions, and we
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: saw it this past week. He will be healthy and playing.
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: It's added insurance coverage, depressurizing the calls at the offensive
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: line against a very complicated blitz scheme that Brian Flores
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: is running. So we'll talk about that one on Tuesday.
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: Cleveland at Houston, Houston, assuming Stroud plays. I'm not sure
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: what you're seeing right now. When I looked before we
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: came on the air, it was Houston minus two and
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: a half.
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's done to minus too. I'm all over it.
• 39:57
  Speaker 3: I'm walking right into it.
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: If it Houston, right, yeah, yeah, yeah, I love you here.
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: And if it's not CJ, you know, I might I
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: might not buy in my position, I might just ride
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: it out if it's case Keenum again, because what Chad
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: talked about today is what I saw from Houston is
• 40:15
  Speaker 3: just a team that even though they didn't have CJ,
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: even though they didn't have Collins, even though they're a
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: number one tight end, even though I think Anderson didn't
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: play either to the end, like or maybe I's going
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: to hear his name, but it just felt like it
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: was all against them, and that was like an incredible
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: coaching job, Like, kept all the guys together, they're down
• 40:33
  Speaker 3: ten and a half, they stayed in it that whole game,
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: and I honestly kind of wanted to back the Cleveland
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: because I thought we'd be getting four three and a
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: half on them. But you know, the pros, the public,
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: whoever's coming in, they're they're hitting them on this number
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: right now, Like they came in and bet the two
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: and a half on Cleveland. So yeah, I'm gonna look
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: forward to coning route seeing who's betting that. But first
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: first reaction for me is you take Houston here and
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: if it's CJ, this easily.
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: Go above three, like this will go up to three
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: and a half.
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: I mean, Cleveland, don't let it fool you against the
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: Bears that the Bears had tons of opportunities. Their defense
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: is injured, they're banged up. They're not the same team
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: we were used to.
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: Offensive line injured two Joel Betonio went out during the
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: game too.
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: And they're a different team. We say all the time.
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: They're a different team on the road in they are
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: at home. You can go look at the splits. Totally
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: different teams. So no doubt love Houston grabbing the two now,
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: it's it's if it stays under three, this will be
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: one of our five.
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: I promise you that I thought about Seattle, Tennessee, Tennessee
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: plus two and a half for a second because it's
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: a verable spot.
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I know, and we're supposed to do it.
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: We're supposed to do it. I'm actually kind of hoping
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: Will Levis might not play. He injured his ankle pretty
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: bad at the end of the game. You know, do
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: we get Ryan Tannehill off the bench? One last to rock?
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: Do you forget?
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: You forget how bad Ryan Tannehill is because it's been
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: a while, but.
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: At least somebody he is frequently covered in that spot.
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: Whereas true, we'll let it. This has been kryptonite for
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: our Mike Vrabel podcast.
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: I know at home he's been killing us. Rable at
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: home always wins those games.
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: Yes, brutal, but I'm skipping that one because I want
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: to get to another one.
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that is so.
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: Ugly New England plus five and a half at Denver.
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: I know I want to do it, but I think, honestly,
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: the value right now is on Denver.
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: Like this, this should be six six and a half.
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: Maybe I'll get there's I mean, I'm just saying we
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: don't do better right now, but come Tuesday it might
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: be at six and a half.
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I just I don't think.
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: I know.
• 42:37
  Speaker 3: Denver's been very lucky with turnovers. But isn't this the
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: perfect team to play if you like luck with turnovers
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: like Zappi mac Jones, they can't help but turn the
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: ball over. I mean, it's it's incredible, Like Zach be
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: he played so well in the first half and they
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: comes on the second half and he has two really
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: dumb throws and one of them is right.
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: To one of the defenders.
• 42:57
  Speaker 3: Yeah, like it was like, dude, just throw the ball
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: out a bound live for the next down. Just just
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: brutal because like again the Patriots defense, they're playing so well.
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: So I don't hate it, Chad, but I would wait.
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: I think that that goes up to sixty six and
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: a half. That's where I think the number should be.
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: All right, we'll wait, We'll wait and see if it
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: gets there. What am I missing?
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: I mean, just again, this is just instant reaction what
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: I want to bet. And I know Colts fans, they
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: probably want me to keep picking against their Colts team
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: because it keeps winning.
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: They how quick they forget No one was a bigger
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: champion of.
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: The Colts in this In August, I had all the
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: Rover tickets, but I don't got to read on them,
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: But I'll tell you this much, Atlanta has a dog
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: at home. I'm gonna take it like they're just They're
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: the kind of team where when they're favorites, I want
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: to fade them, especially on the road, and when they're
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: a home dog, I tend to like to back them,
• 43:49
  Speaker 3: especially in a game where I don't know what's gonna
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: be betting them. Like I know everyone that took them
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: this week, the ninety percent of the public and eighty
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: percent of the tickets wherever.
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: It was, They're totally off this Atlanta team.
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: So I'll grab the plus dude just now, just in
• 44:03
  Speaker 3: case it does move down.
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: The other game that could get interesting, Pittsburgh is a
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: two and a half point dog right now at home
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: against Cincinnati. Cincinnati with Jake Browning, Jamar Chase has a
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: Jamar Chase has a sprained acy shoulder joint. DJ Reader
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: done for the year.
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to do. I lost.
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: I don't want to tell you how much money I
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: lost on them on Saturday. You know what we're gonna
• 44:33
  Speaker 3: do unhealthy and I need more time on this one.
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: I came and pick it.
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: I did. I honestly didn't take the Steelers last week,
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: I was like, I'm not taking miss Trubisky.
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: When it was thirteen to nothing, dude, I was like,
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: what a read? What a play? Tomlin bounced back? Spot?
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: What did?
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: I feel like a fucking avy?
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: Truly sick as soon as they I was watching that game,
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: and I was actually like, I can't believe I didn't
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: bet this game. I can't believe I didn't bet.
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: This son of a bitch. No you Yeah, And then.
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: I went out. My wife and I went out for
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: dinner and saw a movie, and I came home and
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: I saw the final score and I sat down to
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: watch the the I think it was the bront Was
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: it the Lions?
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: Now?
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: Who played last? Nay the Lions? And I have the
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: Lions minus four, four and a half whatever, I'm like, oh,
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: I feel so much better now. Yeah, geez, maybe the
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: play in that game is the under. It's thirty eight
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: and a half right now, for maybe to play in
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: that game is the under? All right, so very early
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: leans that Chargers plus thirteen and a half plus fourteen Dallas,
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: you liked it at two and a half and two
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: you got it there. It's at one and a half.
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: A lot of places now you might want to hold
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: off on that Houston minus two if you can get it,
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: Atlanta plus two at home against Indie, and those are
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: sort of the leans right now, yep, all right. As
• 45:51
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