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NFL Week 11 Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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• 1:27
  Speaker 1: to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: I I'm Chad Milman, chief content officer for the Action Network.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: It's Thursday. We got a big show. Lines are moving,
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: We're gonna narrow things down. I'm gonna do it as
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: I always do with my bff, my companion, my compadre,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: someone who only laughs at me three or four times
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: every show. Professional better Sigmon Hunter, Chad. Thursday, week eleven,
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: are we just gonna die right into it? Atlanta? Just relax, Okay, Simon,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: I'm so far up. I put up all the lines.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: I'm just going. But you know what, it's Thursday, So
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: before we get too sharp calls, let's get something straight. Okay.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: My job is to drive. Your job is to back
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: seat drive. So let me tell you where we're going
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: and then you can tell me why it's wrong. I'm sorry, gentlemen,
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about a survivor pick, even though we
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: haven't been a survivor for two weeks, but people keep
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: asking for us. We're gonna talk about a money line parlay.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: We're gonna do our big balls better the week. We're
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: gonna get a sharp call in, which is when your
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: professional betting buddies have called you after the Tuesday show
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: and said you're wrong, you're right, go get this, etcetera, etcetera.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: But first we'll talk about Thursday, because it's Thursday. We
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: were all over Atlanta on Tuesday. I bet the Falcons
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: plus seven. The line has been moving down, moved back up,
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: moved down, has been bouncing around. What do you got?
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: I was gonna say to you, can you I can't
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: believe this line is moving down a six and a half.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: That's I'm honestly pretty shocked. But because this is every gambler,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: this is what they wanted. They want to take the
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: six point teaser. You tease it down now and a half.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: All you need is that the Patriots just to win
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: straight up by a point, doesn't matter. If they win,
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: you're gonna be covering now in teasers. So I like
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: the Atlanta play going into it now, I love it
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: even more. I really do think the bookmakers are kind
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: of showing their hand here moving it down like this.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: So it's um it's rare we do Thursdays, and I've
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: been on a roll on our Thursdays and we haven't
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: used any of them. Of course, we gotta use this
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: week because this is a typical standalone primetime game reverse
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: line action. All the money's coming in on this Patriots team.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Everyone keeps throwing in the teasers, just like last week
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: with the Ravens. Everyone started their week off putting the
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Ravens and their teasers to start the week. It's it
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: was a loser. So we are do for one of
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: these big favorites to cover on a Thursday night. But
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Colts just two weeks ago covered as a ten point
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: favorite on Thursday Night against this Jets team. So I
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: don't really think we're that do I kind of like that.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: You know, dogs have been good to us in these
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: primetime games. So I'm still all in on Atlanta plus
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: six and a half. Uh yeah, I liked Atlantic seven.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: What's interesting about this line It actually got bet up
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: to seven and a half. I feel like I feel
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: like the professionals were playing the market. I think they
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: betted up to seven and a half so they could
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: bet it down to say they wanted to get that
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: hook on Atlanta at plus seven and a half. Uh,
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: and then they came back and bought it, and bought
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: it so big that it went down to six and
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: a half. I'm surprised as there, but we do like it. Um.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: I told you that the math works out now, buddy,
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: where I looked at it, seven and a half, seven
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: don't hit as much as six and six and a
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: half sto. So I'm with you that the pros might
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: have came in and betted up a little bit like that,
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: but we didn't really use any value. Apparently that the
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: odds have not shifted more than percentage of us not
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: covering the six six and a half. So I still
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: gotta love the number. I love the number. I love you.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: Those are two things that I love. Uh. Let's talk
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: about sharp calls. Let's get to it. Hello, who's there.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: I'm talking somebody who called you this week after Tuesday
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: and said they hated our picks or loved our picks.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: It's it's definitely a trend this season. We have a
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: great week, a winning week, not that many calls, not
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: too many guys and really go out there and really
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: go against me. So I had the one buddy called
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: me again, the guy who gave me Denver. Last week
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: we just got absolutely slaughtered and I was over the Eagles,
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: So I talked a lot of ship to him. But
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: he is good at reading these home favorites. I'll give
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: that to him. That is what he likes, the bet favorites.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: That's what he does. That's what his group does that
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: They kind of not the anti pro. They just roll
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: with the chocolate lot. That's what they like to do.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: So he's been one of the few guys who was
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: on the screen Bay train. I mean, every week you'd
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: call me up, but every time we go up against
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Green Bay and tell me I'm an idiot. He's like,
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: you just don't get it. You don't get it, you
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: don't get it. I kept on him, He's not getting it,
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: and then here we go. Green Bay has covered every
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: week um since week one. So this week he called
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: me up and he was surprisingly on the Vikings a
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: two and a half. We wake up this morning. What
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: do we see, Chad. It's down to plus one with
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings. Now, So that's that's one of those
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: I know for a fact. I mean, you're gonna have
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: in because I believe it's still two and a half
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: in the contest, and we liked it at two and
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: a half. But it really does feel like we're walking
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: into it now because this is so easy. Now everyone
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: in the world's gonna wake up Tonday morning be betting
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: this Green Bay team, especially on minus one. So give
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: it to me. Let me fall right into the trap.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: I don't care. You have to take the Vikings in
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: this position. Vikings are our foxhold better the week. I
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: love it. So we're already ahead of the curve. We're
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: ahead of the curve. Uh, let's we might as well
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: talk about that game. We're gonna run down the games
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: that we listed, and the Vikings were on that list.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: But of course, you know, I like to listen on
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Thursday mornings, I have my double shot espresso, my my
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: green tea with match of powder, my overnight oats which
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: he is seeds your fruit water. I listened to the
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Action Network podcast with Raybond, Chris, Raybond and Stucky. I
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: like to see what they're saying against what you're saying.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: It's always really interesting. But this is one where they
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: loved the Vikings too. Ah. And this is one of
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: those things where and we see this with the Titans. Also,
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about the Titans and the Colts. There's
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: three plays over the course of the season that are
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: the difference between a team being overvalued and a team
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: being properly valued. Right now, the Packers, they're nine and
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: one against the spread. They are due for a regression.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: With a defense that is overperforming UH, with a quarterback
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: who is showing signs that he is um vulnerable under
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: pressure UH, a Niners defense that is playing at a
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: near elite level, a running back who is an All
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: Pro going against a terrible rush defense. You can see
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: why the number moved. I'm gonna wait until Sunday. At
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: this point, I I forgot to bet it on Tuesday.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna wait until Sunday and see if it comes
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: back up. I will say that as a Packers guy
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: that has invested in the Packers that win the Super Bowl,
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: I honestly never felt better all these games they're winning.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: They're they're missing a couple of guys in the row line,
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: and they're missing joy Year Exalloner at that like their
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: best cornerback. They've been if you look on paper, they've
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: been one of the best secondaries in football. This season.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: So I'm with you. I do think a lot of
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: things have bounced their way, but this is a typical
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna have been two seasons ago. The Green may
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: was in the same exact position right now. They're eight one.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: They went on the road to go play the Vikings
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: team I believe, and they were like a seven point favorite,
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: the Vikings beating my believe by four team. So divisional games,
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: that's what we're banking on here. You kind of have
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: these teams that just match up really well with each
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: other inside these divisions, and that's how I look at
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: this Vikings team. I just think myself, it's not be fun.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Me chat hate betting on Kirk Cousins because it's never
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: a good time. But this is the pro line. We
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: have to bet this number got to got to that'll
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: be in the contest for sure. We'll get it to
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: two and a half again. If you're going to bet
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: it it's now at one, you might as well wait
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: and see what happens on Sunday if the public comes
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: in on the Packers. All right, let's talk about the
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Texans and the Titans. Texans plus ten and a half,
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: that was our Simon says bet better immediately when I
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: was able to bet it on Tuesday legally in the
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: state of Connecticut. I got it at eleven. Um, it's
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: down to ten, right, I think it's down to ten.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: I also bet a little bit of a taste on
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: the money line. UM got it a plus three eight.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: I think I still like it. I still like everything
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: about it. And I mean, it's just the Titans. Come on, man,
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Like Josh Allen doesn't slip, they lose that game. A
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Cults receiver doesn't tear as a c O while running
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: a Ton interception back for a touchdown. The Titans get
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: the ball back and then score. A referee doesn't call
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: it rough in the past, or when the Saints intercept
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: the ball in the end zone, the Titans get the
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: ball back and they score. Those are three flute plays
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: that have the Titans on a sist game winning street.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: And like Power Raider is the number one team in
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: the NFL, come on, come on, and I got I
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: got beef to pick with my group. I sent this
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: in on Tuesday to be one of my big bets
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: then the season, and I got rejected. I got down. Yeah,
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: so I I get it. There they're they're just not believers.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: I am is in Taylor, so they wanted me to
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: wait a week on that love for Houston. But it
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: is one of those where as soon as I saw this,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: I told you I love this line. I loved it.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: At ten and a half, it just screamed over value
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: team in this Tennessee team. Um like a little bit
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: of the window on my sales when I got rejected
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: just because I like I not that I want to
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: get over my big bets this season, but it's just
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: a piece of stress I hate carrying with me where
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: it's like I need to find it, I need to
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: get it, I need to be right. So nothing's changed.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: This is gonna be one of my biggest bets of
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: the week. I'm all in on Houston, but it will
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: not be one of my biggest bets of the season,
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: just in the simple fact that other professionals don't trust it.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: So um, I feel like anyone listening to this, this
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: is a bet you have to make. Like I said
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday, you should have been at a ten and
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: a half. I'd still take it at ten. I would
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: bet this down to about nine and a half nine,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: and then uh, we'll see. I I still think public
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: money will be coming in a Tennessee that I'll just
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: hold here at the ten number, but I would just
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: grab it now just to be safe. We love this game, yeah,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: definition of an overvalue team. We love the Falcons, we
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: love the Vikings, we love the Texans. Right now, how
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: are we feeling about the Saints plus one and a
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: half against the Eagles. We loved it the other day?
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: Well loving it now? Yeah, still love it? Still like
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: still like that camar is back. But you're in, like
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: you're in, Like you're not You're not in love. No,
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: It's like there's other dogs we like better, especially ones
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: on the road with bigger point spreads. But um, I
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: still bet to send teasers. Still think you're getting a
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: good number. It's just interesting now that professionals are really
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: coming on the Eagles. This is that minus two for
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: the Eagles minus two and a half. It's some off
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: shore books. So usually when you look at all shore books,
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: that's the pro books because they don't pay taxes on
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: those winnings. So very interesting to see. Um, you know
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: that this is like one of these the money keeps
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: coming on the Eagles where I'm sitting here and nothing's
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: really changed. I still think you're getting a good number
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: on the Saints. So at this point, I'm just gonna wait.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: I hope this gets up the two and a half
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: three I legal books. I'll bet it again because you're
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: getting a good number of the Saints team makes no
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: sense to me the Saints defense. Saints defense is best
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: in the NFL rush. All the Eagles can do right
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: now is run the ball, and their defense is uh holy,
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: And I don't mean that in the paperway. Yeah, what
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: the hell are we missing? That's how I don't get.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: So it's very interesting. But didn't we feel that way
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: last week about I think we felt that way last
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: week about the Saints too. Yeah, we were right though
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: they landed. I know, so, like, what are we missing? No,
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: we felt that way last week about the Niners. They
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: were becoming sort of the the team that all the
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: wise guys love, that that public wise guy team. Yeah,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: and we ended up being spot on. So you know what,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: the fucking geniuses doesn't have to be If it comes
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Sunday and Chad's like, hey, asshole, put Saints in, I'll
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: put them in because I'm already bet. I'm already invested
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: in it. So I'm with you on it alright. This
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: other one that I love and that I think will
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: definitely be in our five Colts plus seven plus seven
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: and a half at the Bills. Yeah, the seven and
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: a half was a treat down to set been. It's
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: gonna be down at six and a half probably in
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: most books by the weekend. It's I think I got
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: the Colts at seven and a half on Tuesday. Yeah,
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: and like I, I hit a couple of books or
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: seven a half. But obviously our good friends, our partners here,
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: it's where it's stuck at seven for a while. FanDuel.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: I think they eventually got to seven a half and
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: then I got bet down. But anyone, anyone that listened
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: to the show knows that I've not that I've been
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: super high on the Colts, but I did. Coming in
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: the season. I had a higher grade on them most
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: people did on this cold team didn't work out the
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: way I played. Carson Wentz got hurt to start the year,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: he missed all those reps to start the season. They
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: were just they came out just sluggish to start the year,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: and the last couple of weeks they've been good. They've
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: been winning their only game they dropped was against that
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: Tennessee team and the Ravens come back, which we look
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: back on now, that was just a fluke. The Ravens
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: they're pretty good, but them to come back like that,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: that's that was insane. So when I when I think
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: of this cold team, I am put a limit on
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: the money line. It's not gonna be that big of
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: a money line bet because that's simple reason. They haven't
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: They have not closed teams out this and so you're
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: giving me a seven seven a half spread. We of
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: course love that, but this will be one of those
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do a stand alone in the money line.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: I'll just throw it into a round robin or something,
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: just because the Colts have not been closing teams out.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Frank Reich, he gets tight and when they have these
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: big leads, he goes away from what's working for the team,
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: where they'll just say, you know what, we'll run it
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: twice and then on third and seven, I'll of course
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: to try to throw it. That's not work. That does
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: not work for their team. That's that's what's been hurting
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: them when they get these leads. So I still love
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: the number we're hoping for some weather too, because that
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: would really benefit us. We have a great running team
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: against the Bills team that cannot run the ball. That
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: that's out of our hands at this point. But a seven,
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, if you can get that number, yeah,
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: we're I mean, this is one of these games you
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: talked on Tuesday, and I had no doubt we would
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: have as one of our five putting it in. By
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: the way, we have four games that we love right now.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: We're never this locked in on a Thursday. When I
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: call you Sunday, it's not even gonna be a call,
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: it's just gonna be a text. We're good, We're good. Yeah. Well,
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: the toughest part about Sunday always to me always be
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: I get up at three am Eastern time, which is
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: midnight veggat time. So by the time I talked to Chad,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: you know, on our own call, it's like even thirty,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: so I've already been up looking at lines for eight
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: hours and my mind is just all over the place.
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: So that's what's good about you, Chad. You kind of
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: ring me back and you're just like, no, dude, this
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: is what we said, this is what we're doing. Because
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: I am not lose my mind at that point. But
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: it's just so much information. Someday morning it can be
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: just a bit overwhelming. I'm what you call ballast. Is
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: that what I would say? Foundation? Yeah, I'm just I'm
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: here to help what I do. We talked about the
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: Vikings a lot. Uh, we made it packed with each other.
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: We will never put the Jags in our top five again,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: sticking to it. Okay, okay, because the Jags they were
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: at seven. You had this game at four and a half. Yeah,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: you said you liked it as a money line game,
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: and the line has moved in our direction. It went
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: from seven to six. Still like it, but I'm just
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: I refuse to do it to the fans like I
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: honestly feel terrible. Um every time we put them in,
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: they screw us. So I was I'm a man of
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: my word. I will not put the Jags in, but
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: yes I am on the Jacks. We talked about the
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: Raiders and the Bengals. We liked the Raiders. We decided
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: we were going to wait on it. By the way, Uh,
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: Niners and Jacks huge pros. Joe's game. All the betting
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: tickets on the Niners, all the money on the Jags, Bengals,
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: decent sized pros. Joe's game tickets on the Bengals. Uh
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: bet money on the Raiders. We wanted to wait on it.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: It was a plus one. It's still at plus one. Yeah,
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: I'm surprised the money is on the Raiders too. I
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: thought more people be burned by them. But I guess
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: the pros are just thinking, like I am, this is
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: this is where you have to take the Raiders. Everything
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: that could have gone wrong in that game really did.
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: Everything seriously bounced the Chief's way. The biggest pause would
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: be you got the Bengals coming off by a week
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: perfect defense to get right against the second area of
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: this biggest team is terrible. I look at the other way.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: I told you, I really do like this Raiders offensive.
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: A defensive line. Max Crosby has been playing out of
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: this world this season. Joe Burrow has no protection. He's
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: one of the most hit quarterbacks this season, and that's
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: led to a lot of turnovers from Joe. I think, um,
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: it's like him and Zach Wilson have seven picks, like
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: when they throw over twenty yards this season, Like there,
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: it's way up there because he's forcing the issue trying
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: to get this team into these games when he's got
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: a lot of pressure on him. So nothing changed. Still
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: like this number, My only issue is it's not great value.
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: I had a right where it pretty much is. I
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: put this game as a pic. That's where it's sitting
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: at pretty much. So I'm I've moved the number down
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: a little bit on Vegas, like I had biggest power,
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: it a little higher. Now the more I've dived into
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: their team, it seems like there are a little bit
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: of They've been bad on als, that's the biggest issues.
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: So they haven't drafted right now. Their defense is kind
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: of suffering in that word, they just don't have the
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: really good pieces in their secondary but we have. I mean,
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: as a professional, I had to take this number. This
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: is um such a trap spot for people that are
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: big Bangos believers, which mean Chad are. I mean, I
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: bet on them to win the North, so I I
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: do believe in this team, but just a bad spot
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: for them they're walking into. I don't know that the
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: writer is gonna make our final five. Now they're kind
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: of gross. Right now, they're kind of gross. And I
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: also think in the next four games, I want to
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: spend a little bit of time on each one. Seahawks Cardinals.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: Tickets still coming in on the Cardinals, money coming in
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: on the Seahawks. You get the Seahawks at plus two
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: and a half. Right now, How am I not taking
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: Seattle in this game? Everything lines up. I don't know
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: if Kyler Murray is playing. They might sit them out
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: for one more week because then they get to buy
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: DeAndre Hopkins didn't practice the Seahawks, Russell Wilson getting shut out.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: Of course, this feels like a bye right spot for
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks. I'm running the other I'll probably end up
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: on the Cardinals. Even the guys I've talked to now
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: that are around the Seattle team and like they have insiders,
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: even they are telling them that Russ at practice, he's
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: not making the throats, something like his hand just isn't
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: right yet. So, you know what, I could be dead
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: wrong by passing on this game. And I get your
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: reasons for taking the Seahawks, But something's funky here like that,
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: this line is funky. The bookmakers know what they're doing.
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: They know they're gonna get a ton of Russ money.
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: They know that I'm gonna have rust and all my
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: teasers because you're giving me plus two now at home?
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: Why would I not tease this up to plus eight?
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: This is a very fishy, fishy line. So I'm I mean,
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: they're gonna just stay away, or I'll just tease the Seahawks.
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: But I'm not. This is one of the few games
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: I'm not bending straight on the Seahawks. There's I just
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: don't trust the jujue right now coming out of that team. Yeah,
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: not a lot of people know, but that's something that's scientific.
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: It's not it's not just a gambler's feeling. There's real
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: logic and numbers behind bad jusual. There must be a
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: little bit, of course, there is. We live in a
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: world that is powered by electro magnetic energy, right, It's unseen.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: It's little pops of static between people, between objects. These
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: things have power. It's kinetic deep, motherfucker deep. And now
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• 23:46
  Speaker 1: Let's get back to the show on the Action Network
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: podcast Raybon and Stucky Love the Chiefs Love, want to marry?
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: What what can make them? Especially data wise? Like the
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: Chiefs everything on paper says this is a prime matchup
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: for the Cowboys. Cowboys dominate the type of defense that
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: this Chief's team runs. I mean, just on the run
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: game alone, statistically, this is going to be a field
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: day for this Cowboys pass blocking, run blocking offensive line.
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: So I understand what they're saying. Maybe they're just looking
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: at this a spot where it's like this is a
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: good spot to take the Chiefs. They're getting right, they're
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: coming home. They play teams really well at home. All right,
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: nothing's changed for me. We'll be on the Cowboys a
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: plus two and a half. We'll have them in a
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: couple of teasers as well. I love this position for
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: this Cowboys offense. Well, I don't, Well we put them
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: in the contest, I would say no right now, because
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: again it's a foursome play, but we have to get
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: in at least one favorite, and right now I have
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: four underdogs I just like more than this Cowboys one. Well,
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: the other game that that we might fall in love
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: with is the Steelers plus five and a half against
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: the Chargers. Ra Ra Mike Tomlin spot who wins outright
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: without ben rolphs product? What ra Ra Mike Tomlin spot
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: the game when the cool bodies right here today from
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: y'all the game today. Like you know, we always talked
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: about my time Lynn Grates his two thousand three, but
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: he's always had Ben Roethlisberger during the entirety of his
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: coaching career. Without Ben Roethlisberger, he wins out right all
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: the time as an under dog. It's it's crazy. I'll
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: get a coaches, like I talked about, I wanted to
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: take the Charges that minus four, and I like looked
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: at it for a while and I just couldn't do
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: it because it thought so gross. And then it shot
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: away up to five and a half and it made
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: me really nervous. Where it's like, okay, I've already messed
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: the best number on the Chargers. Now they're getting a
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: little overvalued, this Charger's team because everyone's freaking out because
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: Roethlisberger might be out of this game. But I don't
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: know I'm gonna end up. I think staying away from
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: this one. Um, it's a primetime game, and you know
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: I love prime time dog, so I'll by the time
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: that kicks off, I'm sure I'll be on this Pittsburg team,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: especially if it hits six, which to me is such
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: a key number. But man, it's it's fishy, fishy, fishy,
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: fishy line because I get it. Pittsburgh. They're one of
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: the best running teams in football playing against one of
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: the worst run defenses all football. Like, that's why you
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: can't let this line get too high, because if Pittsburgh
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: gets a lead, they're gonna be able to dominate this matchup.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: But the way their defense plays and the way their
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: offense plays. But for me, I don't know. It's it's
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: so hard to put money on this game where it's like,
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: am I really about to bet a decent amount of
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: money on Mason Rudolph in this position on the road
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: without t J. Watt on the defense. There's there's just
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: so many unknowns right now for Pittsburgh that if I
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: was gonna bet this, I'd wait until Sunday when you
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: have more information. I love the fase enthusiasm. I' MOUs
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: say we can make what do you guys quit today? Well, look,
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: the biggest Prime under Primetime underdog of the week, the
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: Giants plus eleven and a half on the road at
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: the Bucks. We got four games that we love right now.
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: We have not settled on a fifth. It could make
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: Sunday ugly. I don't know that we're feeling that good
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: that we want to go Falcons on Thursday night as
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: home dogs and book end it with Giants plus eleven
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: and a half on Monday night. We wanted. Actually, I
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: got a couple of calls on this one from a
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: couple of pros, so I know a really well known
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: professional group was coming heavy on the Buccaneers. When I
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: got down to ten. Now, I'm I just opened it up.
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: It's up to eleven now, so obviously the bookmakers took
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: that money pretty damn serious. So damn it because I
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: did like the Giants. But like when that when a
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: group that doesn't bet that often that's big on one
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: side and a primetime game, it usually scares me off.
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: So I'll probably pass that one. And I know we
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: didn't give it like, we'll just fly through it real quick.
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: I still don't hate Cleveland as a big favorite. I
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: hate Joe Flacco, Chad. Last year, I should on Joe
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: Flacco constantly. That was my move to talk to you
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: about Joe Flacco. So I wasn't the Jets. Now I flapped,
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: I'm in Miami. I took them at three. It's up
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: to three and a half. Still don't hate that number.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: Joe Flacco is bad. He is bad, bad, bad. I
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: honestly think they're they're looking at the standpoint. They're like, Okay,
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: this is a veteran quarterback playing against a veteran defense.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: Now this is a weird, weird move by this Jets team.
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: It's like they're openly trying to tank. Now, sitting Mike White,
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: the guy that upset one for them against Cincinnati Bengals,
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: and he has one bad week. Now you're out weird
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: and everything on the Jets is just weird. So for
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: talking favorites at a real chalky, I do like Miami.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: I know it's so chalk, but Joe Flacco awful defense.
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: This is uh, this is bad, bad, bad for the Jets. Uh.
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: In reference to our old friend Bob Scucci battered Flacco.
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: He used to get so beat up that uh Scooch
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: called him battered Flacco and then we ultimately made it
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: a dish at the Orleans Uh. In the buffet, it
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: was like a Pinko crustard flounder or something. I think
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: I have like crab in there because of the Maryland,
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: like the Baltimore coun because I thought I always thought
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: Flacco sounded like battered. Flacco sounded like a fish, you guys,
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: a fucking fish. And before we keep moving, I just
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: want to give out. Should we make our big balls
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: better the week? Atlanta big ball better the week? Like
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: wrap it off the bandages, get it over with, right,
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: Let's do it. Let's go with Atlanta. I've never felt
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: so confident and yet so ready to be asleep by
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: ten o'clock when the Patriots are up seventy nine to
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: two because Mac Nipple Jones cannot stop firing darts to
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: whatever receiver he decides to throw it too. That's Mac
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: Jones right now. He's a witch nipple quarterback. Now, I mean,
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: I mean he's on this show for three years. Not
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: every time we believe in Matt Ryan. This is when
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: he fox us. But we gotta do it stand alone
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: primetime game. We have to do it in this position.
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: He does not deserve our faith. He doesn't. He really doesn't. Silent.
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: If we were to choose to survive for this week,
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: who would we choose, assuming we're moving forward, and who's
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: remaining the survivor pick of the week? Alright, so using
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: our fictional chart, we'd already sadly used the Browns, which
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: I really like. Coming into this week. Oh man, this
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: was a tough, tough, tough one. We didn't use the bus,
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: which could be a little risky doing against the Giants,
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: but I feel like it's not. Now, that's not a
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: risk that such big money is coming on them. Uh.
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: The other one we could do, that's smart, little risky,
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: but by Miami Dolphins. They're playing against the Jets. Joe
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: Flacco just like the pause there, it's on the road
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: and we don't like, Yeah, this is a this is
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: the box. You take the box at home Monday night.
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: Play it safe. I'm not putting my my my mythical
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: survivor pool pot in the hands of two on the road.
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: I can't hate it on. If you're I mean again,
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: me and Chad took Houston, I understand if you're like, no,
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: I want to take tennis. I'm gonna us Tennessee here.
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: And then another team, A couple of people reach at
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: they wanted. They think sleep is a good sleeper for
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: this would be the Chargers. If Pittsburgh started Mason Rudolph,
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: that's that's a crazy play. To take the Chargers. He
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: got bos out. Now for the Chargers, he failed his
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: COVID test I believe or maybe his close contact he's unvaccinated.
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: He needs to pass the test either Saturday or Someday morning.
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: Back in this game again, do not lock in if
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: you're gonna if you have to lock in your Survivra
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: pool before this weekend, stay away from the Chargers. Please,
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: this is it's too high for risk at this point
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: in the season. Do what Chad's talking about. Just played safe.
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: Take the Buccan years. Who's gonna money line parlor? I
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: really give on the Thursdays because a lot of people
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: don't catch it in time. Do you like Atland his
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: money line. I'm gonna have a money line around robbing
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: with them in there. But if you want to skip
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: that one, I'll go just the Sunday I got Houston,
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: I got the Colts, I got the Jaguars, which Chat
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: already did in a three teamer, which is it was
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: one of my favorite bets from Tuesday started over again.
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: Houston money line, Colts money line, Jaguars money line, Washington
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: Football the money line, and if you want to close
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: it out, the Steelers on Sunday night. Don't hate it,
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: but again, I would wait to see if it's Roethlisberger.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: If that's Roethlisberger, I love that play. If it's not,
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: I would not put them in. And if you just
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: gotta force win in because they're out two, you didn't
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: do it Atlanta either. I don't hate what you just
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: talking about. Seahawks play like they're at home. There are
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: a dog with Russell Wilson. That's usually pretty good to us,
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: But to me, I'm just gonna do it in a
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: teaser because I feel safer with that number. All Right,
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: I feel like we've covered it all. We've done our
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: big balls better the week. We've done our money line parlor,
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: we've done our Survivor. We've narrowed down the board. We're
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: feeling really good about Falcons plus seven, Vikes plus two
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: and a half, which is the contest line we got
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday. We're like the Texans plus ten and a
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: half were like the Colts as dogs. And then come Sunday,
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: we're gonna We're gonna have a horrid decision to make.
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: We're gonna just see what the market is saying. Yea, hopefully,
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: Chris Chris Raybon or Shawn. Like Seawn can give us
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: a good pick Somenday morning, we can still one of
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: their That's right. Watch us on Convince Me see the
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: heat the kinetic energy. Having into last week free month
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: to convinced me at Action Network HQ eleven Am eastern
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: I am Shad Molman. He is Simon Hunter. This has
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: been the favorite from the Volume Podcast Network. Download us
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: and Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your podcast. Until
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: next time, Love you