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Transcript

Nicolai Tangen · The David Rubenstein Show

0:03
Speaker 1: The largest sovereign wealth fund in the world is the
0:05
Speaker 1: Sovereign Wealth Fund of Norway. It's overseen by Nikolai Tangent,
0:09
Speaker 1: a former Norwegian hedge fund manager who now has a
0:12
Speaker 1: chance to oversee the largest sovereign wealth fund in the
0:15
Speaker 1: world by far. I had a chance in Davos to
0:18
Speaker 1: sit down with Tangent to ask him what it's like
0:20
Speaker 1: to be responsible for a fund that large. Tell us
0:24
Speaker 1: what norgous investment management really does and what your job is.
0:28
Speaker 2: Well, the job is to run the Norwegian someone Wealth
0:31
Speaker 2: Fund and it has many facets. Of course, one is
0:35
Speaker 2: to lead the investment activity. It is also to develop
0:39
Speaker 2: the organization. There is a quite a comprehensive kind of
0:44
Speaker 2: framework around. It's working with the board, the Ministry, the
0:48
Speaker 2: supervisory board. There is a Council of Ethics which keeps
0:53
Speaker 2: us out of ethical investments and so on. So a
0:55
Speaker 2: lot of things involved in the world.
0:57
Speaker 1: So every sovereign wealth fund has somebody running it, presumably,
1:00
Speaker 1: but virtually no other sovereign wealth on that I'm aware of,
1:02
Speaker 1: as somebody who was a superstar private sector investor, a
1:06
Speaker 1: member of the Giving Pledge, and somebody who's made a
1:09
Speaker 1: lot of money in the private sector. How did you
1:12
Speaker 1: come to do this job and leave your job running
1:14
Speaker 1: a very successful hedge fund.
1:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's interesting. So I had been running this company
1:19
Speaker 2: called Ako Capital for fifteen years and I thought, you know,
1:23
Speaker 2: what kind of the learning is plateauing, and I need
1:25
Speaker 2: to move on in life and do some other things.
1:27
Speaker 2: So I actually was starting to apply to go back
1:31
Speaker 2: to university and then this job came up, and I thought, wow,
1:35
Speaker 2: it combines as management, it combines you know, developing an organization,
1:41
Speaker 2: and also to do something good for the country. So
1:43
Speaker 2: he was just perfect.
1:44
Speaker 1: So where did Norway get all of this money? I
1:47
Speaker 1: mean one point seven trillion dollars is a lot of money.
1:50
Speaker 1: Where did you get all this money?
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Speaker 2: Well, you know, we'd been drilling on the Norwegian shelf
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Speaker 2: for a long time and and actually this was in
2:01
Speaker 2: sixty nine in the in the autumn, like a cold
2:03
Speaker 2: day like today, and they were they were on the
2:06
Speaker 2: last well. And this was Phillips operating a platform called
2:10
Speaker 2: Ocean Viking. And then two o'clock in the morning, this
2:13
Speaker 2: platform chief was told to wake up, you know, the
2:17
Speaker 2: guy in charge, and he's just like, hey, why do
2:21
Speaker 2: you wake me up? At two in the morning. It
2:22
Speaker 2: was just like you know what, we found some white
2:25
Speaker 2: and it was the biggest fine the world had ever
2:27
Speaker 2: seen off shore. And then this was announced in the
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Speaker 2: Norwegian population on the day before Christmas Eve sixty nine,
2:34
Speaker 2: and so that's that's where it started.
2:35
Speaker 1: So if Leif Erickson had not gone to North America
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Speaker 1: and just stayed in Norway, it would have been better
2:41
Speaker 1: for Norway, right, because he could have discovered the oil
2:43
Speaker 1: there and not have gone to look for riches in
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Speaker 1: North America.
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Speaker 2: Could be KULDB.
2:47
Speaker 1: So let's talk about the current investment environment. As we
2:52
Speaker 1: talked today, President Trump has been inaugurated in the United States.
2:56
Speaker 1: Are you worried about some of the America first policies
3:00
Speaker 1: that he has said he's going to pursue, or as
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Speaker 1: in a global investment manager, doesn't really make a.
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Speaker 2: Difference to you, Well, it's a complex question because we
3:08
Speaker 2: are a global investor, right. So if we then first
3:11
Speaker 2: disregard all types of policies which can impact society and
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Speaker 2: just look at it from a pure financial point of view,
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Speaker 2: I think in the short term it'd be really good
3:21
Speaker 2: for our companies in America. There'd be less regulation, there'll
3:26
Speaker 2: be more more growth, so that's positive. Now, of course,
3:31
Speaker 2: if there are a lots of tariffs or European companies
3:33
Speaker 2: will be hit by it, so that'd be negative. And
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Speaker 2: then of course also there is a big question whether
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Speaker 2: the policies will be information area, which would be bad
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Speaker 2: news in the longer term.
3:42
Speaker 1: So let's talk for a moment about enorgious investment management.
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Speaker 1: When was it actually set up? That oil was discovered
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Speaker 1: in what nineteen sixty nine? All right, so when was
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Speaker 1: this organization set up?
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Speaker 2: It was set up in ninety six and the first
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Speaker 2: deposit there was like two billion in Norwegian growner. It's
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Speaker 2: grown to twenty thousand billion, so good growth.
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Speaker 1: So now the money that comes in from the oil
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Speaker 1: and you invested, does that money go to every citizen
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Speaker 1: in Norway every year or does it just stay in
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Speaker 1: the central reserve for the use of the government.
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Speaker 2: Well, I would say that a couple of clever things
4:18
Speaker 2: that the politicians did at the time. They also established
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Speaker 2: what is called the spending rule, so you can only
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Speaker 2: spend three percent of the fund every year, and three
4:26
Speaker 2: percent of the fund goes into the budget. Now the
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Speaker 2: fund is now so large that it accounts for twenty
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Speaker 2: five percent or between twenty and twenty five percent of
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Speaker 2: the state budget. But I think it's very good to
4:38
Speaker 2: have that rule in.
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Speaker 1: Place, right, So twenty five percent of a government's budget
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Speaker 1: comes from what you do every year.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, and my seven hundred colleagues.
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Speaker 1: How many people actually work for you? Yeah?
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Speaker 2: Well, so we got roughly seven hundred we have. We
4:51
Speaker 2: got one hundred in New York and fourteen London, we
4:54
Speaker 2: got fourteen Singapore and the rest would be in Oslo.
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Speaker 1: So the people pay an enormous amount of attention to
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Speaker 1: your investment success. Does everybody in Norway look every day
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Speaker 1: in the newspapers and see how you're doing, because that
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Speaker 1: will affect Norway's government.
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Speaker 2: Well, not only every day, we have it on a website.
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Speaker 2: We have a ticker which shows the real value of
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Speaker 2: the fund at all times, and it's updated thirteen times
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Speaker 2: every second.
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Speaker 1: So that's a lot of pressure every hour on people
5:22
Speaker 1: attention to what you're doing.
5:23
Speaker 2: Absolutely.
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Speaker 1: So your job, though, is to oversee several hundred people
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Speaker 1: making investment decisions. Do they come to you if it's
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Speaker 1: a really big investment decision and say we're going to
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Speaker 1: put one hundred million dollars in something, or is it
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Speaker 1: you're just doing strategic things and you're not making individual
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Speaker 1: investment decisions.
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Speaker 2: Well, it's since it's such a large funt, you need
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Speaker 2: to be pretty index there in what you're doing. And
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Speaker 2: we have a very good investment mandate which we get
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Speaker 2: from the Ministry of Finance, and then we follow that
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Speaker 2: and then we have decentralized the various investment mandates within
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Speaker 2: the firm.
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Speaker 1: So do people in Norway or the government criticize you
5:57
Speaker 1: saying you bought too much apple stock, or you didn't
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Speaker 1: buy enough apple stock, or you don't get those kind
6:01
Speaker 1: of criticisms.
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Speaker 2: That's exactly right. So we always make mistakes, and that's
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Speaker 2: always in the papers because either either you have too
6:09
Speaker 2: much or you have too little, or you know, when
6:12
Speaker 2: you own a bit of nine thousand companies across the world,
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Speaker 2: there is always something going wrong somewhere and we always
6:18
Speaker 2: own it, and so we are always criticizing.
6:20
Speaker 1: So today, if I was looking for some good investment ideas,
6:24
Speaker 1: Let's suppose somebody's watching and say, what is the largest
6:27
Speaker 1: sovereign wealth fund in the world, thinking is a good idea?
6:30
Speaker 1: What would you say A couple of good ideas?
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Speaker 2: No, I think if you're a long term investlerg we
6:33
Speaker 2: are you want to be widely diversified across as a classes,
6:38
Speaker 2: across geographies. It's very very tough to do this tactical
6:42
Speaker 2: asset education. I think that's nearly impossible. The best thing
6:45
Speaker 2: to do is always to do the opposite of everybody else.
6:47
Speaker 2: And what would that be today? Well, if you were
6:50
Speaker 2: to do the opposite of everybody else, you'd be to
6:51
Speaker 2: sell the US tech stocks, you know, buy China, sell
6:56
Speaker 2: private credit, you know, just buy stuff which is out
6:59
Speaker 2: of fashion. But it's very, very tough to do because
7:02
Speaker 2: if you are contrariant and you are different from your
7:04
Speaker 2: benchmarks and so on, there will be periods where you
7:06
Speaker 2: end up performing and everybody is going to question your sanity.
7:09
Speaker 1: What about artificial intelligence? Is that a good area and invest
7:12
Speaker 1: in that? Oh?
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Speaker 2: It has been fantastic and we have made a lot
7:15
Speaker 2: of money for the fund.
7:16
Speaker 1: You know.
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Speaker 2: The biggest contributors so the last few years have of
7:19
Speaker 2: course been the big American AI companies. And I pulled
7:23
Speaker 2: people in ORGUS just before Christmas when I ask them
7:26
Speaker 2: how much more efficient are you now because of the
7:29
Speaker 2: new tools, and on average people thought they were fifteen
7:31
Speaker 2: percent more efficient really good.
7:34
Speaker 1: So in Vidio is still a good stock to buy.
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Speaker 2: Well that I don't know, but.
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Speaker 1: For sure they make good products. When you look at
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Speaker 1: your investment team, did they come in every week and
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Speaker 1: say here's some ideas we have and do you tell
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Speaker 1: them yes, no, yes, no? Or you just listen to
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Speaker 1: what they recommend?
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Speaker 2: Well, they would decide, I think, you know, in order
7:53
Speaker 2: to really judge how they're doing, they need to be
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Speaker 2: toky accountable and you can't interfere in the investment process.
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Speaker 2: So I don't interfere in the investment process.
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Speaker 1: Well, as we talk today in the United States, at
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Speaker 1: least ESG and DEI seem to be in less favor
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Speaker 1: than they were maybe two or three years ago. Is
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Speaker 1: that the case in Norway? No, So you don't really
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Speaker 1: care what the US is doing in this regard.
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Speaker 2: Well, there is clearly a backlash against ESG right, but
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Speaker 2: the policies we have they are anchored in the Parliament
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Speaker 2: and so we have not changing. In one mind, we
8:23
Speaker 2: think it's important with client reporting, We think diversity is
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Speaker 2: good and so on.
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Speaker 1: In most Scandinavian countries, and I think certainly in Norway
8:31
Speaker 1: there's concerned about climate change and there's a lot of
8:34
Speaker 1: interest in renewable energy, but you make your money from
8:37
Speaker 1: non renewable energy. So is there an incongruity when you're
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Speaker 1: making all this money from carbon carbonized kind of chemicals
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Speaker 1: and fuels, but you really don't believe in that to
8:48
Speaker 1: some extent, How do you square that?
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Speaker 2: Well, we believe in it, and we do think that
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Speaker 2: in particular, the gas that Norway produces, which is very
8:57
Speaker 2: high proportional of the gas supply in Europe, is very
9:00
Speaker 2: important and it continues to be a big part of
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Speaker 2: the energy supply and and important for security for many
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Speaker 2: many years to come.
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Speaker 1: Let's talk about your own background. You weren't just working
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Speaker 1: your way up in the government of nord just investment management.
9:15
Speaker 1: You were very successful, as I said earlier, in the
9:17
Speaker 1: private sector. Where were you born.
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Speaker 2: I was born in a small town in southern Norway,
9:23
Speaker 2: Christiansand which not many people have heard about.
9:26
Speaker 1: And were your parents' investment managers?
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Speaker 2: No, my mother worked in the public sector with museums
9:32
Speaker 2: and art and my father was an entrepreneur.
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Speaker 1: Where did you go to school?
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Speaker 2: I started off in Norway. I studied Russian in the
9:41
Speaker 2: Intelligence service. I went to Wharton, did business undergrad and
9:44
Speaker 2: then I have done some degrees afterwards. I've done one
9:47
Speaker 2: in art history and one in social psychology.
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Speaker 1: Is it unusual for somebody in Norway to go to
9:53
Speaker 1: college at Wharton School in Philadelphia?
9:55
Speaker 2: It's great school, but it's pretty pretty It's not so common.
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Speaker 1: So when you went to Wharton and you said you're
10:00
Speaker 1: from Norway, to people in Wharton say where is that?
10:02
Speaker 2: Or yeah, of course?
10:05
Speaker 1: And did they make fun of Norway? Did they say
10:07
Speaker 1: you were a Viking or something like that? Yeah, okay,
10:10
Speaker 1: well I was okay, okay. So you graduate from Wharton
10:15
Speaker 1: and you get other degrees, you set up your own head.
10:18
Speaker 2: I mean, the cool thing is, you know, you come
10:19
Speaker 2: from Norway, which is like a very agilitarian society and
10:22
Speaker 2: it's all about being very humble and so on, and
10:25
Speaker 2: then you come to Wharton, which is just like the opposite.
10:28
Speaker 2: It's like I remember, you know, I went to clubs
10:31
Speaker 2: one day and it's just like, hey, what do you
10:32
Speaker 2: guys want to do? I just want to conquer the world,
10:34
Speaker 2: and everybody approad. I didn't say that, but somebody else said,
10:37
Speaker 2: and you know, people applauded, and it was just like
10:38
Speaker 2: your mindset totally different.
10:40
Speaker 1: So you didn't find a lot of humility at Wharton,
10:42
Speaker 1: not so much. So okay, so you graduated, didn't Did
10:46
Speaker 1: you go into the private sector right away?
10:48
Speaker 2: Yeah? I went then became an analyst with a stolkworking firm.
10:52
Speaker 2: I went there, worked there for five years. Then I
10:55
Speaker 2: joined my largest client, which was a hedge fund and
10:57
Speaker 2: one of the earliest hedge funds in Europe.
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Speaker 1: Where was it, London? When did you say I'm going
11:02
Speaker 1: to set up my own hedge fund?
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Speaker 2: Well, so that was a bit afterwards because I had
11:05
Speaker 2: worked for these hedge fund for five years and made
11:07
Speaker 2: some money, and I took a break. So I did
11:09
Speaker 2: it a master's in art history, but realized that wasn't
11:13
Speaker 2: very good at it.
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Speaker 1: So how do you know you're not good at art history?
11:16
Speaker 1: I mean, you don't measure it the way you do investments.
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Speaker 2: Wow, you get feedback from the professor that you're not
11:22
Speaker 2: the brightest thing. Okay, So I thought, Hey, I'm better
11:24
Speaker 2: at looking at stokes and paintings and so let's set
11:26
Speaker 2: up these erm instead.
11:27
Speaker 1: But you built a art collection, so you must know
11:30
Speaker 1: something about art.
11:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, but it's easier to buy art than write about art.
11:34
Speaker 1: Okay. So you set up your own hedge fund eventually. Yeah,
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Speaker 1: and how big was it before you stopped it?
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Speaker 2: Just under twenty billion dollars, So it was one of
11:44
Speaker 2: the largest funds in Europe. No, I'm really proud of
11:46
Speaker 2: what we did there. We had many of the largest
11:48
Speaker 2: endowments and universities in the world investing with us, so
11:50
Speaker 2: it was a fantastic thing.
11:51
Speaker 1: So you have twenty billion dollar hedge fund and your
11:54
Speaker 1: averaging rates of return I assume that are in double
11:56
Speaker 1: digit kinds of areas, right, And so when you up
12:00
Speaker 1: this opportunity to run norgeous investment management to do, say
12:04
Speaker 1: to your family, guess what, I'm not going to be
12:06
Speaker 1: making that much money anymore and we have to live
12:09
Speaker 1: work conservatively. Yeah, and what did they say? They were
12:12
Speaker 1: happy with that?
12:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, Wow, I've good enough money to buy food and shoes.
12:19
Speaker 1: But usually hedge fund managers don't say they need to
12:22
Speaker 1: have enough money to buy the food. They want to
12:23
Speaker 1: buy airplanes and art and and other things.
12:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think that's a misconstrued perception of what
12:28
Speaker 2: happens is you know, in my mind, happiness is about learning.
12:32
Speaker 2: That's how you measure happiness is how much you have learned.
12:35
Speaker 2: You know, some people say, you know, you measure success
12:37
Speaker 2: by how many who has got the most money when
12:39
Speaker 2: they die? And I just think that's totally failure. I mean,
12:42
Speaker 2: the person's got the most money when he when he
12:44
Speaker 2: or she dies, that they have they have lost. They haven't,
12:47
Speaker 2: they haven't got it.
12:48
Speaker 1: Oh, I didn't realize that. So well you were?
12:52
Speaker 2: You done this?
12:53
Speaker 1: All right? So I lot something I gotta learn. But okay,
12:55
Speaker 1: so all right, so you set up your hedge fund.
12:58
Speaker 1: But when you left your hedge fund, did you have
13:00
Speaker 1: other people running? Is it still around?
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Speaker 2: Absolutely? So it was a fantastic thing. It's been a
13:04
Speaker 2: great transition to the next generation. Really readied. They are
13:08
Speaker 2: doing better than ever and it's just a total win win.
13:12
Speaker 2: So but when I when I left for the for
13:14
Speaker 2: the position in Norway, I had to to give away
13:17
Speaker 2: my ownership stake, so I gave it to a charitable foundation.
13:20
Speaker 2: And so the stake in the hedge fund is funding
13:23
Speaker 2: that charitable fundation.
13:25
Speaker 1: So you did so well that you actually joined the
13:28
Speaker 1: giving pledge right, which means you've got a net worth
13:31
Speaker 1: of at least a billion dollars or so are you
13:34
Speaker 1: the only person in Dorway that signed the giving pledge.
13:37
Speaker 1: It is one more, one more. Okay, So when you
13:40
Speaker 1: go to the giving pledge meetings, do you say, guess what,
13:42
Speaker 1: I'm giving away money now? But I'm I'm really ranting
13:46
Speaker 1: running the Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund? Or you don't. People
13:49
Speaker 1: don't talk to you about what you do now?
13:50
Speaker 2: No, No, they talk about that too.
13:52
Speaker 1: So you ever go to reunions at Wharton and say,
13:55
Speaker 1: I wasn't that.
13:57
Speaker 2: I was on the board. I was on the board.
13:58
Speaker 1: You working for some time now, and but they I
14:01
Speaker 1: guess they asked for contributions from time to time.
14:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, and okay, but all that I did, I did
14:07
Speaker 2: give them a building.
14:08
Speaker 1: But all the people in your class who are bragging
14:10
Speaker 1: about how great they were and they were to conquer
14:11
Speaker 1: the world, did you ever show up and say, look,
14:13
Speaker 1: you're the guy who actually did it, and you didn't
14:15
Speaker 1: brag about during that.
14:16
Speaker 2: You didn't say that I never felt that I conquered
14:18
Speaker 2: the world.
14:20
Speaker 1: For five years, you've been running this fund and done
14:23
Speaker 1: pretty well. Obviously, now your term is up. You have
14:27
Speaker 1: another five year term you could get, and you're apply.
14:30
Speaker 2: I applied last week.
14:31
Speaker 1: You applied. Okay, you have to apply or you already
14:33
Speaker 1: have the job.
14:34
Speaker 2: No, it's it has to be you have to apply again.
14:37
Speaker 2: So I updated my CV and applied.
14:40
Speaker 1: Wow, okay, did anybody else apply or yeah?
14:42
Speaker 2: I think so. I mean, I don't know, it's I
14:45
Speaker 2: don't know. I mean, I'm when it comes to this,
14:47
Speaker 2: I'm very very humble. I if they find anybody else
14:50
Speaker 2: who's better at doing that job, he or she should
14:52
Speaker 2: get that job. Right, it's a very important position in
14:55
Speaker 2: the country. And so I have applied. I hope I
14:57
Speaker 2: will get an extension. So if not, I to do
15:00
Speaker 2: something else.
15:01
Speaker 1: So you're willing to do another five years, and your
15:04
Speaker 1: compensation as the person running it is modest, I assume
15:08
Speaker 1: compared to what you used to make.
15:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a well paid job, but it's, of course
15:14
Speaker 2: it's a public sexual job.
15:15
Speaker 1: Any thought about going into politics and running for government positions,
15:20
Speaker 1: prime minister or something like that. No, you don't want
15:23
Speaker 1: to go into that. No interest in that. And what
15:26
Speaker 1: about any thing after you're finished. That's suppose you do
15:29
Speaker 1: another five years and for ten years of this you
15:31
Speaker 1: probably would say that's enough.
15:33
Speaker 2: Well, I'm going to spend the rest of my life,
15:35
Speaker 2: hopefully doing good things. You know, I'd love to go
15:39
Speaker 2: back to university at some stage you do no degree,
15:42
Speaker 2: learn some more things.
15:44
Speaker 1: Art history, but you're not that good at that, so
15:45
Speaker 1: you would do something else. You think, okay, but you
15:48
Speaker 1: have a big art collection. Still in what area do
15:50
Speaker 1: you collect art?
15:51
Speaker 2: We have the biggest collection of Nordic Modernist art and
15:54
Speaker 2: we've given that to a museum which opened last year.
15:59
Speaker 2: New York Times recently said he was one of the
16:02
Speaker 2: fifty most important places to go in twenty twenty five.
16:04
Speaker 2: So you will have to go, of course.
16:06
Speaker 1: So if somebody is watching this and they've never been
16:09
Speaker 1: to Norway, what would you say about what is great
16:12
Speaker 1: about Norway that would deserve their visiting? What is Washington?
16:16
Speaker 1: Can you see in Norway? Well?
16:17
Speaker 2: The nature, the nature is unrivaled. I mean, it's just
16:20
Speaker 2: like Switzerland with a little of c around it, right,
16:23
Speaker 2: and it's absolutely beautiful. You really close to the fjord,
16:27
Speaker 2: you close the mountains. He's good for skiing, he's good
16:30
Speaker 2: for hiking. It's perfect and not too many people, so
16:33
Speaker 2: it's not so crowded.
16:34
Speaker 1: How many total people are there in five million? Five million?
16:37
Speaker 1: So when Alfred Nobel was awarding his developing his Nobel prizes.
16:42
Speaker 1: He had the prizes being given by people in Sweden,
16:45
Speaker 1: the Swedish academies, but he didn't think the Swedes were peaceful,
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Speaker 1: loving people, so he said, the Peace Prize is given
16:53
Speaker 1: by people in Norway, So the Norway is very peaceful. Yes,
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Speaker 1: And you have no interest in getting into international diplomatic
17:01
Speaker 1: things or like something like that. No, okay, And your
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Speaker 1: children are they interested in investing? No?
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Speaker 2: Thankfully, I mean thank God for that, because I think
17:11
Speaker 2: in my mind, you just don't want to follow your parents.
17:14
Speaker 2: You want to create your own destiny. You wanna you
17:17
Speaker 2: don't want to be measured against the success of your parents.
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Speaker 1: You know.
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Speaker 2: I don't really believe in the inheritance. I think to
17:25
Speaker 2: inherent a little money, it's not a good thing. If
17:27
Speaker 2: you are successful, it's just because you inherited a little money,
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Speaker 2: and if you fail, you are a total failure because
17:31
Speaker 2: you started with a lot of money and you didn't
17:33
Speaker 2: manage to do it. So I just think it's so,
17:36
Speaker 2: you know, let them do what they want.
17:37
Speaker 1: So today, are you worried about your borders because of
17:42
Speaker 1: what's going on in Russia and Ukraine? Is that something
17:44
Speaker 1: you worry about in terms of the impact of Russia
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Speaker 1: Ukraine on your investment appetite for things like that.
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Speaker 2: I'm not worried about Russia invading Norway anytime soon. We
17:54
Speaker 2: are a member of it of NATO, we do border
17:57
Speaker 2: to Russia. But now since Finland and Sweat join NATO,
18:00
Speaker 2: we feel stronger than before.
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Speaker 1: So today, what would you say your biggest investment concerns are?
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Speaker 1: You're running one point seven trillion dollar fun for the
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Speaker 1: average person to not manage that much money, what should
18:11
Speaker 1: they be worrying about? And what are you worrying about now?
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Speaker 2: I think you know, I think you've got two things.
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Speaker 2: One you have the known and knowns right so and
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Speaker 2: there at the top of my list would be two things.
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Speaker 2: One is inflation, because I think there is an argument
18:22
Speaker 2: in a tate tight labor market when you potentially decline
18:26
Speaker 2: the supply or to reduce the supply of labor in
18:30
Speaker 2: the US you put on tariffs. These things can be
18:34
Speaker 2: inflation area. And there could be a moment where, given
18:36
Speaker 2: the high level of government debt, that the investors certainly decide,
18:40
Speaker 2: you know what, we want a much higher coupon to
18:42
Speaker 2: lend to, you know, to governments. And so you could
18:45
Speaker 2: see a step up in interest rates, which could be
18:48
Speaker 2: negative financial markets. Then of course all the AI related stocks.
18:53
Speaker 2: The epicenter here is is Taiwan, so you need to
18:55
Speaker 2: watch that. The thing that really scarce us when it
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Speaker 2: happens is the expected, you know, whether it be a
19:02
Speaker 2: meltdown of nuclear reactors in Japan or COVID or financial crisis.
19:07
Speaker 2: Is the stuff you cannot model, which really de raise markets.
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Speaker 2: And they come about every so often, and there will
19:13
Speaker 2: be another one coming up.
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Speaker 1: So I suppose I'm one of the people interviewing you
19:17
Speaker 1: for your real application to at this job for the
19:20
Speaker 1: next five years. What would you say is the reason
19:22
Speaker 1: that you deserve the job. You've done pretty well, or
19:25
Speaker 1: you like the job, or people are happy, or your
19:27
Speaker 1: rate of return has been very good. What would you
19:29
Speaker 1: say is the reason you should get this job?
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Speaker 2: The organization has done well, is a real teamwork. We
19:35
Speaker 2: built a really great team. You know, we have done
19:39
Speaker 2: a lot of great things. Were now the most transparent
19:41
Speaker 2: fund in the world. We've done a lot of things
19:42
Speaker 2: like that, right, And there's always lower risk to take
19:45
Speaker 2: the incumbent than changing. But as I said, you know,
19:49
Speaker 2: these are just pros and cons, and well other people
19:52
Speaker 2: out there who are really really excellent.
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Speaker 1: Right, So what do you do for outside activities? Are
19:57
Speaker 1: you a skier or you're some other kind of out well.
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Speaker 2: I spend a lot of time in nature. I walk
20:03
Speaker 2: in the forest, I do cross country skiing. I pick
20:06
Speaker 2: mushrooms in the autumn. Do what mushrooms? Not the magic run?
20:14
Speaker 1: What do you pick them? Or you grow them or what? Oh?
20:16
Speaker 2: You walk around in the forest and you pick wild
20:18
Speaker 2: mushrooms and you go home and you cook them and
20:19
Speaker 2: you make you know, like chanto el spaghetti.
20:24
Speaker 1: Wow, that's an unusual I have. Wow. Okay, So generally
20:29
Speaker 1: you just like me as a very happy person, and
20:33
Speaker 1: I generally don't find that many happy people in the
20:35
Speaker 1: investment world are always worried about something else. But you're
20:37
Speaker 1: pretty happy. So how did you get to be so happy?
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Speaker 2: Well, first of all, you have to figure out what
20:42
Speaker 2: is it that makes you happy? And I do think
20:44
Speaker 2: people mistake that quite often. You know, they just tried
20:47
Speaker 2: to make more money to buy more things. That's not
20:52
Speaker 2: where true happiness comes from. It comes from spending time
20:56
Speaker 2: with friends and family and learning and in ternsally and
21:00
Speaker 2: you know, as you know, I also do a podcast,
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Speaker 2: and I learned a lot through that podcast.
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Speaker 1: If you're giving advice to somebody that's watching this about
21:07
Speaker 1: how to be a good investment manager, what is the
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Speaker 1: single most important piece of investment advice you could give somebody? Learn?
21:14
Speaker 2: Learn, Learn, And the combination of being stubborn and agile.
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Speaker 2: You know, you have to stick with your guns, you
21:21
Speaker 2: have to believe in what you do. You have to
21:23
Speaker 2: be able to contrariant. But when things change, you have
21:25
Speaker 2: to change your mind. And that's the variest combination in
21:28
Speaker 2: investment management.
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Speaker 1: So you think humility is better than arrogance and a
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Speaker 1: good investor, well.
21:33
Speaker 2: You need to be confidently confident. Humility is the magic.
21:37
Speaker 1: Have you ever met Warren Buffett? No? Really, and no
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Speaker 1: interest in meeting if he's called advice, But he hasn't
21:44
Speaker 1: called you for ideas or anything like that.
21:46
Speaker 2: No, no, but he I haven't met him. Well I briefly.
21:50
Speaker 2: I met him briefly.
21:51
Speaker 1: Okay, So is there one person that is a role
21:53
Speaker 1: model for you? If it's not Warren Buffett, maybe it
21:56
Speaker 1: is even though you haven't met him. Is there anybody
21:58
Speaker 1: you would say is somebody you have as a role
22:00
Speaker 1: model in the investment area?
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Speaker 2: Well, I think it's difficult to not mention Bill Gates
22:05
Speaker 2: as a role model if you are a philanthropist, because
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Speaker 2: you make a lot of money and then you are
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Speaker 2: very organized and structured in the way you give it away.
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Speaker 2: I think that's really impressive.
22:17
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to hear more of my interviews. You
22:19
Speaker 1: can subscribe and download my podcast on Spotify, Apple, or
22:24
Speaker 1: wherever you listen.