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Iran Wraps Up Doha Meetings · Balance of Power

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Speaker 2: We have been informed via Iranian media that Aron's Deputy
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Speaker 2: four and Minister says talks in Cutter have ended. They,
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Speaker 2: of course began yesterday in Doha. The US envoy Steve
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Speaker 2: Whitcoff and Jared Kushner were in attendance, though these were
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Speaker 2: not direct conversations happening between those envoys and Iranian officials.
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Speaker 2: They were instead indirect all the same, The President said
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Speaker 2: earlier today that there has been very good meetings. We're
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Speaker 2: just not clear what exactly those meetings have accomplished and
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Speaker 2: whether or not there have been any material breakthroughs in
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Speaker 2: these conversations.
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Speaker 3: Jef, You know, well, we keep throwing around the word
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Speaker 3: progress and maybe ops based on what day it may
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Speaker 3: or may not be from either side, the US or
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Speaker 3: Iran officials and Cutter have actually been trying hard to
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Speaker 3: downplay expectations here. Again, these are indirect talks, and I
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Speaker 3: don't believe we have another actual round of negotiations on
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Speaker 3: the calendar, so we wanted to get to the bottom
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Speaker 3: of all of this. Now that this latest attempt has
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Speaker 3: come to an end. Bloomberg White House correspondent Jeff Mason
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Speaker 3: is with us right now in our Washington bureau, and Jeff,
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Speaker 3: it's great to have you back. Anything to show for this.
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Speaker 3: Do we have a sense of whether anything was accomplished.
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Speaker 4: It's just it's really a parsing job, right.
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Speaker 5: I mean, the fact that they're telling us it's over
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Speaker 5: is a little bit of news because we know it's over,
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Speaker 5: and then we.
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Speaker 4: Have to try to figure out what they talked about.
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Speaker 5: I think probably the broader takeaway is that they are
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Speaker 5: talking and that the attack and that's not just rhetorical.
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Speaker 5: I mean, there were just a few days ago there
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Speaker 5: were live attacks going on between the United States and
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Speaker 5: Iran again, so the fact that that did not end
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Speaker 5: up derailing these talks is probably significant. The President was
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Speaker 5: a little bit dismissive when he talked about it in
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Speaker 5: the Oval Office the other day, saying they might be interesting,
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Speaker 5: they might not be interesting, but they're certainly trying to
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Speaker 5: put a positive spin on it right now.
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Speaker 2: Okay, So those are talks that are taking place in
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Speaker 2: terms of diplomacy and trying to mediate an end to
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Speaker 2: the conflict between the US and Iran. I also want
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Speaker 2: to talk about trade talks that are not taking place
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Speaker 2: with US and our partners to the north and south.
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Speaker 2: Today was the day for the USMCA to be renewed
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Speaker 2: or not. The Trump administration has decided against that renewal.
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Speaker 2: We know that this will basically mean that everything stays
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Speaker 2: the same for the next ten years with conversations, But
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Speaker 2: what do we need to know?
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Speaker 6: Jeff?
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Speaker 5: I appreciate the skeptical look on your face because that
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Speaker 5: is how I'm feeling about it as well.
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Speaker 4: It's not being.
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Speaker 6: Renewed yet the lines.
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Speaker 4: Am I reading that correctly?
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Speaker 5: It's or questioning anyway, because I have the same question.
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Speaker 2: It's amazing, Squinty.
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Speaker 4: Yes, it's more of a what does this all mean?
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Speaker 5: It stays in place until twenty which is another ten years,
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Speaker 5: And yeah, my understanding is that the US can basically
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Speaker 5: try to make changes to it in these annual negotiations
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Speaker 5: that are now going to probably disrupt the trade relationship
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Speaker 5: even further than it already has been between the United
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Speaker 5: States and Canada and Mexico.
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Speaker 4: It's really it's closest trade allies.
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Speaker 5: And as Joe and I were talking about in the
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Speaker 5: last hour, the irony of all of that is President Trump,
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Speaker 5: Harold did and pushed through this agreement during his first
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Speaker 5: term and called it basically the most important trade agreement ever,
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Speaker 5: which you know, the President is known for a little
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Speaker 5: bit of hyperbole, but he's also known for changing his
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Speaker 5: mind and for lashing out against people who were partners
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Speaker 5: and allies if the game changes for him, and right
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Speaker 5: now the game is changing.
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Speaker 6: Come a long way from that first term.
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Speaker 3: And of course he says, well, we only needed that
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Speaker 3: then to get out of NAFTA, and we're in a
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Speaker 3: different place now. I guess some things could happen in
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Speaker 3: the next couple of years. But there's a lot of
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Speaker 3: question about his financial disclosures. Before you leave us, we
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Speaker 3: got hundreds of pages on Donald Trump last night. I
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Speaker 3: think it was like twelve for jd Vance. What did
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Speaker 3: we have for the vice president? Those didn't seem to
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Speaker 3: make a lot of news. Donald Trump one point four
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Speaker 3: billion dollars from crypto alone, and he had been taking
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Speaker 3: profits on Nvidia, Apple, and Palenteer. Based on the headlines
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Speaker 3: we saw last evening, quarter of a million here, quarter
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Speaker 3: of amillion. We're in the billions range when it comes
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Speaker 3: to crypto, and of course this is a business and
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Speaker 3: industry that his family works in. And you've made the
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Speaker 3: point one that he has pushed back on the idea
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Speaker 3: of regulating.
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Speaker 5: Indeed, he has absolutely pushed back or slack there were
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Speaker 5: another way of saying that is pulled back from intensive
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Speaker 5: regulation of the crypto market, which you have to wonder
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Speaker 5: if he's thinking about his financial interests when he's making
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Speaker 5: those decisions. I'm not saying he is, but people who
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Speaker 5: are looking at this are certainly right to raise that
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Speaker 5: question or have a reason to raise that question.
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Speaker 4: Also, the companies that you just mentioned, what did you say, Apple.
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Speaker 7: Young, Navidio, Palenteer.
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Speaker 5: I mean those CEOs are in and around President Trump
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Speaker 5: and his White House and forced.
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Speaker 6: One business with the government all the time.
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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean that when we were going to China
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Speaker 5: several weeks ago, I remember, you know, I broke the
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Speaker 5: story of which which CEOs were going on that trip,
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Speaker 5: and initially actually yes, indeed except for initially Jensen weaning
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Speaker 5: and then he ended up getting added on the tarmac
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Speaker 5: in Alaska. I was talking to a former White House
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Speaker 5: official yesterday actually who said that he interpreted them changing
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Speaker 5: topics a little bit, but sticking with the CEOs, that
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Speaker 5: he interpreted that sort of back and forth to be
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Speaker 5: maybe some people in the White House were unhappy with
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Speaker 5: the video about their position on export controls and then
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Speaker 5: the president and this ties us back into our previous
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Speaker 5: conversation said, No, Jensen Whang is my friend and he
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Speaker 5: needs to come. So all of that wrapping it all
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Speaker 5: together is he's friends with a lot of these these
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Speaker 5: CEOs and is also making money for me.
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Speaker 3: We should probably not Okay, there's there is nothing illegal
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Speaker 3: said to have been done here.
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Speaker 6: Correct. Indeed, conflict of interest is not breaking the law.
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Speaker 5: Important to note that absolutely, and yet unusual politically for
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Speaker 5: a president not to divorce himself more from that when
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Speaker 5: he has an administration that has an impact on it.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, Jeff Mason covering the White House for
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Speaker 2: us here at Bloomberg, Thank you so much. And on
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Speaker 2: the subject of the President being divorced or not from
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Speaker 2: decisions made with his finances, he was questioned by reporters
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Speaker 2: around these financial disclosures today, and he said a lot
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Speaker 2: of these decisions are not his own.
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Speaker 8: Listen, I don't get involved in my personal and we
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Speaker 8: have funds that run my money. Well, I've made a
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Speaker 8: lot of money before I became president, and they invest
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Speaker 8: my money and I don't talk to him.
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Speaker 6: I don't even speak to the big institutions and they
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Speaker 6: run it. But yeah, I've had a great career in business.
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Speaker 9: I've had a great career.
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Speaker 10: You're profiting off the president.
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Speaker 8: Well, you know I have profity because the stock market's
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Speaker 8: going up. Everybody's profiting.
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Speaker 6: How's you four?
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Speaker 9: Ohe k done?
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Speaker 6: He's about up eighty five percent? Thank you, President John.
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Speaker 2: So on that note, we turned now to today's political panel.
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Speaker 2: Democratic strategist Laura Fink is with us, the CEO and
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Speaker 2: founder of Rebel Communications, alongside Republican strategist tw Arigi, vice
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Speaker 2: president at Push Digital. Welcome to you both, Laura, I'll
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Speaker 2: come to you first, as we know that this midterm
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Speaker 2: cycle is supposed to be all about affordability, and certainly
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Speaker 2: that's the messaging that Democrats are focusing on. It's quite
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Speaker 2: the contrast between affordability messaging and a president who made
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Speaker 2: one point four billion dollars last year off crypto alone.
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Speaker 11: One point four billion dollars, with his crypto coin leading
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Speaker 11: the way in terms of his investments and all of
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Speaker 11: the foreign governments that are pouring capital into those funds.
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Speaker 11: You know, in the first term, we saw people going
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Speaker 11: and spending money as his hotels and his golf courses
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Speaker 11: from foreign nations in an exponential way from prior to
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Speaker 11: when he was president.
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Speaker 9: But here we see it is more.
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Speaker 11: They have the ability for far more investment into Trump
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Speaker 11: and to curry favor, and so the voters will make
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Speaker 11: that decision because you're correct, there aren't laws against this
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Speaker 11: right now.
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Speaker 9: But before the political.
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Speaker 11: Consequences of appearing to have these conflicts of interest were
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Speaker 11: deadly for Republicans and for Democrats. Trump has really eradicated
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Speaker 11: that sort of public and political shaming and so, but
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Speaker 11: it's not entirely gone. And so I think when you
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Speaker 11: see for the first time a president making over a
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Speaker 11: billion dollars when previous presidents Republican and Democrat made you know,
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Speaker 11: maybe a million one point four on normal stock market investments,
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Speaker 11: there's something. There's something rotten in the state of Denmark there.
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Speaker 11: So I think you'll see voters who are struggling to
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Speaker 11: put food on the table and to pay their bills
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Speaker 11: rally against that in the fall.
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Speaker 3: Well, knowing that Crypto's pulled back a lot this year,
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Speaker 3: would be deeply curious to see what is twenty six
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Speaker 3: disclosures look like? How are you thinking about this tw
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Speaker 3: as a Republican, as someone who is no stranger to
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Speaker 3: the financial markets. The president did not break the law,
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Speaker 3: so it becomes a question of whether this is a
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Speaker 3: bad look for all Republicans or maybe he's setting a
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Speaker 3: new president.
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Speaker 6: Do presidents get rich now in the White House? I
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Speaker 6: hope not.
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Speaker 4: No, I hope not.
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Speaker 12: And obviously Donald Trump is breaking a lot of norms
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Speaker 12: across the across his presidency, and I hope we don't
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Speaker 12: get to a point where this becomes a norm.
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Speaker 4: Part of the thing.
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Speaker 12: One of the things that thrust Donald Trump into office
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Speaker 12: was a deep distrust of Washington. Right drained the swamp.
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Speaker 12: Talked a lot about the corruption of the Biden years,
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Speaker 12: especially Hunter Biden, et cetera, et cetera.
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Speaker 6: Two wrongs don't make a right.
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Speaker 12: So I think President Trump has done a lot of
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Speaker 12: good that he should be out there talking, but instead
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Speaker 12: we're talking about all these other things instead of the wins,
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Speaker 12: why because he is. Some of them are quite egregious.
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Speaker 12: I think world liberty, financial being the chief among them.
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Speaker 12: The Wall Street joeneral report on that a handful of
9:51
Speaker 12: months ago was damning. So yes, I think the President
9:54
Speaker 12: needs to be more open about what's going on, and
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Speaker 12: if it isn't a blind trust, we need to confirm
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Speaker 12: that and confirm that there is no dealing's going on,
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Speaker 12: because as money flows in from foreign entities into companies
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Speaker 12: associated with the Trumps, the Wickoffs or whoever, there is
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Speaker 12: going to be the implication that something foul is going on.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, Because of course it's not just the president. There's
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Speaker 2: questions around his family as well. We've already seen a
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Speaker 2: statement from Senator Elizabeth Warren, who's the ranking member on
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Speaker 2: the Banking Committee, talking about how as the Senate is
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Speaker 2: considering advancing crypto regulation legislation, that it needs to guarantee
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Speaker 2: in law that the president any president in their families
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Speaker 2: aren't going to be able to have ethical conflict in
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Speaker 2: that space. Could that actually disrupt the Clarity Act getting through?
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Speaker 4: In your mind?
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Speaker 12: I think it's rich any member of Congress talking about
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Speaker 12: anything in financial markets when it's okay to insider trade
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Speaker 12: in congerce. So until they start policing themselves, they sho
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Speaker 12: ought not throw stones. As we talked about in the
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Speaker 12: previous segment. If Congress wants to act to put more
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Speaker 12: ethical guidelines on the presidency, they have the power to
10:57
Speaker 12: do that. But I also think it's rotten to point
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Speaker 12: the finger and say you you, you are bad when
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Speaker 12: Nancy Pelosi, what's both sides of the aisle? But Nancy
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Speaker 12: Pelosi being an egregious example of someone who's made a
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Speaker 12: ton of money off of information she had about the
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Speaker 12: stock market, well left.
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Speaker 6: To check the nancey ETF. Yeah, I know I'm investing. Yeah,
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Speaker 6: Well that's it's quite a model, Laura.
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Speaker 3: This is the kind of thing that actually can lead
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Speaker 3: to new rules of the road, can actually lead to legislation.
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Speaker 3: Is that the case when the pendulum starts to swing
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Speaker 3: next time there is a Democrat in the White House
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Speaker 3: or a Democratic controlled Congress.
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Speaker 6: Do we see a reaction to these types of headlines?
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Speaker 3: So where we're looking back saying, could you believe the
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Speaker 3: president was allowed to do that back then?
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Speaker 4: I hope?
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Speaker 11: So, I mean this president's potential corruption if found and certainly,
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Speaker 11: you know you you don't have to be a genius
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Speaker 11: to figure out that when you make billions of dollars
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Speaker 11: via a speculative coin and you change your position in
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Speaker 11: order to do so.
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Speaker 9: That there's something amiss.
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Speaker 11: And I think we don't want to just to comment
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Speaker 11: on whether you know, stock trading verse versus crypto, President
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Speaker 11: versus Congress. We have to sew it all up, and
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Speaker 11: where we start. It might be more palatable for congress
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Speaker 11: members not to regulate themselves but to regulate the president.
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Speaker 11: Start anywhere you can get traction and keep going. I
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Speaker 11: think voters are going to really respond to because they've
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Speaker 11: sort of considered this level of graft baked in the pie,
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Speaker 11: but we have never seen it to this degree and
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Speaker 11: at this scale. I mean, the president and his family
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Speaker 11: have made more money since President Trump has been in office,
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Speaker 11: far more than they have prior to that. And in fact,
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Speaker 11: he used to hide his financial returns because he didn't
12:34
Speaker 11: want them being examined or released, and now he's very
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Speaker 11: comfortable doing so because he's in the black and succeeding
12:41
Speaker 11: and succeeding using his office. So if it is very
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Speaker 11: clear that we need to regulate these new forms of
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Speaker 11: investment and potential influence that outsiders and our national interest
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Speaker 11: is truly at stake. American tax dollars are at stake,
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Speaker 11: and there really is no way to properly underscore how
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Speaker 11: important this is.
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Speaker 2: Laura. While we have you, I also want to get
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Speaker 2: your take on the results we saw in Colorado's primary yesterday,
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Speaker 2: specifically the first congressional district, where a fifteen term incumbent
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Speaker 2: lost to a Democratic Socialist rival who wasn't even born
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Speaker 2: yet when Diana Degett first was elected to the House.
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Speaker 2: We were told last week New York is not the country,
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Speaker 2: But does Colorado tell us something about the way the
13:27
Speaker 2: party is setting.
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Speaker 11: Well, deep blue Denver might be a reflection of New
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Speaker 11: York and in more ways than one.
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Speaker 9: But I think there is this.
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Speaker 11: You know, Diana Degatt was not an unpopular incumbent per se,
13:39
Speaker 11: but voters are looking at choice and they're asking for change.
13:42
Speaker 11: And so you see this energy around the new around
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Speaker 11: younger candidates, around a more blunt and direct vision and
13:51
Speaker 11: against sort of the perceived in action of the current Congress.
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Speaker 11: And I think age has a huge part of it.
13:57
Speaker 11: When you have gen Z voters and younger millennial voters
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Speaker 11: stepping up. They want to see something different, and Diana
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Speaker 11: de Gett wasn't able to respond to that. And it's
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Speaker 11: also a testament to the quality of the candidates in
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Speaker 11: terms of their ability to communicate a message that resonates.
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Speaker 9: So we saw that again in Colorado last night.
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Speaker 6: T W We've got less than a minute. You're loving
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Speaker 6: all this right.
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Speaker 3: Every one of these headlines comes together to create a
14:21
Speaker 3: composite story that Republicans want to tell.
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Speaker 12: Absolutely. Look, in twenty ten, Republicans face the same thing.
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Speaker 12: We nominated a bunch of people who are with us
14:29
Speaker 12: on taxis, who are with us on a balanced budget,
14:32
Speaker 12: but had other views that are way outside the mainstream,
14:34
Speaker 12: and those people lost races they should have won. Today.
14:38
Speaker 12: The energy and the Democratic Party is with socialists. The
14:40
Speaker 12: woman who won in Colorado said, we brought nine to
14:44
Speaker 12: eleven on ourselves and a whole seal of other things
14:46
Speaker 12: in New York. There's more that we could ever say.
14:48
Speaker 12: So yes, we're excited to have that debate.
14:51
Speaker 3: This is a great panel. Tw come back and see us.
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Speaker 3: It's great to have the toast of Boston with us.
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Speaker 3: Tw Or Reggae, Push Digital and Laura Fink Rebel CA indications.
15:00
Speaker 6: I'm Jill Matthew and Washington. Patrick McHenry is on the
15:03
Speaker 6: way in next.
15:04
Speaker 3: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
15:06
Speaker 3: more coming up after this.
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Speaker 2: We're all in the middle of the heat wave that
15:32
Speaker 2: is going to be quite literally hanging over the holiday
15:35
Speaker 2: weekend and the celebrations here on the National Mall for
15:38
Speaker 2: the fourth of July, which are going to go very
15:40
Speaker 2: late into the evening and include a speech from President Trump.
15:43
Speaker 2: Of course, perhaps a lot of people that won't be
15:45
Speaker 2: in attendance are those elected representatives who represent constituencies in Congress,
15:50
Speaker 2: because everybody has gone home already for the fourth of
15:53
Speaker 2: July recess. The House had to adjourn early yesterday because
15:56
Speaker 2: once again the Speaker was not able to get pursue
16:00
Speaker 2: going on the floor, losing yet another rule vote to
16:03
Speaker 2: advance the NDAA, the National Defense Authorization Act that had
16:07
Speaker 2: tied to it an amendment around the Save America Act,
16:09
Speaker 2: which certain members of the House want to see pass
16:12
Speaker 2: but of course has no path forward in the Senate
16:14
Speaker 2: due to the filibuster. Hence the effort perhaps to get
16:19
Speaker 2: it into a reconciliation three point zero bill. The problem,
16:22
Speaker 2: of course with the reconciliation processes has to be budgetary.
16:25
Speaker 2: It's not clear that the Save America Act fully is
16:28
Speaker 2: in nature, and that's one of the reasons why President
16:30
Speaker 2: Trump has suggested repeatedly that the Senate Parliamentarian who rules
16:34
Speaker 2: in that process needs to go. He took to True
16:36
Speaker 2: Social once again earlier this afternoon Joe to reiterate that
16:40
Speaker 2: the Senate Parliamentarian should be fired by the Majority leader,
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Speaker 2: John Thune quote immediately.
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Speaker 3: Who could blame them for leaving? This has been quite
16:48
Speaker 3: a fun time for members of Congress. Every time the
16:50
Speaker 3: Republican Party seems to be near a rule or the
16:53
Speaker 3: actual well even signing of a bill that's been passed,
16:57
Speaker 3: a piano falls on them named Donald Trump. We have
17:01
Speaker 3: a lot to talk about with Patrick McHenry. Now that
17:04
Speaker 3: everybody's gone back to their corners and I guess Marching
17:07
Speaker 3: fourth of July, parais is a big question about what
17:09
Speaker 3: will take place when they come back. He's, of course
17:11
Speaker 3: a Bloomberg Politics contributor, a man who once held the gavel,
17:14
Speaker 3: a former Speaker of the House pro temp and former
17:17
Speaker 3: chair of the House Financial Services Committee. Mister McHenry, it's
17:20
Speaker 3: great to see you. I can't imagine that you're blaming
17:23
Speaker 3: anyone for not being here.
17:24
Speaker 6: Members.
17:24
Speaker 3: By the way, we're not supposed to go home until tomorrow,
17:27
Speaker 3: and we've got a floor of your former House of
17:30
Speaker 3: Representatives that has essentially been closed by hardliners for any
17:35
Speaker 3: number of reasons. Now the President drops another blockade. How
17:39
Speaker 3: the Republican Senate is not firing the parliamentarian who is
17:42
Speaker 3: appointed by Harry Reid. He says in Barack Obama is
17:45
Speaker 3: beyond me. Is John Thune under his desk somewhere today?
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Speaker 6: How do we get out of this?
17:53
Speaker 7: Well, we have an election. That's how we get out
17:56
Speaker 7: of this.
17:57
Speaker 13: This is this is what happens at the This is
18:00
Speaker 13: typically what happens in the summer before midterm election. This
18:03
Speaker 13: is not surprising. This is a summer before any election.
18:06
Speaker 13: Franklin Washington, you have a majority trying very hard to
18:10
Speaker 13: clean things up and get the final pieces of legislation
18:14
Speaker 13: through before the election comes. And you have the least
18:19
Speaker 13: reliable members being the least reliable members and making it
18:23
Speaker 13: difficult to do those things.
18:25
Speaker 7: And that's what's happening here.
18:27
Speaker 13: That's why you have this crazy set of agenda items
18:30
Speaker 13: that Congress is trying to resolve, yet very little goodwill
18:35
Speaker 13: and resolution coming about.
18:39
Speaker 2: Well, so if we can't even in the House, see
18:42
Speaker 2: the NDAA must pass pretty standard protocol reauthorization move forward,
18:49
Speaker 2: how are we expected to believe, mister Chairman, that a
18:51
Speaker 2: reconciliation three point zero package could be successful.
18:57
Speaker 7: Oh I'm hard pressed to see how they get that done.
19:00
Speaker 13: The National Defense Authorization Act is the only bill that
19:03
Speaker 13: Congress has passed annually since Harry Truman was in office.
19:08
Speaker 13: It is either begins as a partisan process oftentimes but
19:13
Speaker 13: always ends as a bipartisan product when the House of
19:16
Speaker 13: Representatives can't even bring up that piece of legislation before
19:21
Speaker 13: the July fourth recess, and there were a record number
19:25
Speaker 13: of amendments offered on that piece of legislation, over fourteen
19:29
Speaker 13: hundred amendments offered the House. About three hundred were made
19:33
Speaker 13: in order, and yet with member priorities that numbers that
19:39
Speaker 13: really stand out measure of member interest in the bill
19:43
Speaker 13: and prioritization for their policy or politics, and they couldn't
19:47
Speaker 13: even bring the bill up. That means that for the
19:51
Speaker 13: majority in the House that has to pass the rule,
19:54
Speaker 13: they couldn't pass a rule on a bill that had
19:57
Speaker 13: that level of interest from members. It is it almost
20:01
Speaker 13: impossible for them to do a narrow partisan bill on
20:05
Speaker 13: any matter period, not considering taxes or any other piece
20:12
Speaker 13: of political messaging going into the election. I really don't
20:16
Speaker 13: see the votes there for much of anything. That means
20:19
Speaker 13: that Congress should just leave town and get home with
20:22
Speaker 13: the electioneering, because all that they're going to do is
20:24
Speaker 13: in gender ill will among themselves and look worse in
20:28
Speaker 13: the press for not.
20:28
Speaker 7: Being able to get things done.
20:31
Speaker 6: That's apparently exactly what is happening.
20:33
Speaker 3: I've got to ask you, mister Chairman, about the financial
20:36
Speaker 3: disclosures from President Trump, not whether you think there's a
20:39
Speaker 3: conflict of interest there, weigh in as you see fit.
20:42
Speaker 3: I'm curious to know what the potential splashback on the
20:46
Speaker 3: Clarity Act might be. Once there was finally a deal
20:50
Speaker 3: on stable coin yield. There was a real debate remaining
20:53
Speaker 3: about language around conflict of interest and whether the president
20:56
Speaker 3: the executive would be mentioned. Does this de rail clarity
21:01
Speaker 3: when the likes of Elizabeth Warren a crime foul.
21:04
Speaker 13: It certainly doesn't help the passage of important crypto legislation
21:08
Speaker 13: like Clarity. What you've had is the progressive left there's
21:13
Speaker 13: anti crypto use trump ethics as a justification for opposing
21:19
Speaker 13: this piece of crypto legislation. That does have important impacts
21:24
Speaker 13: on those Democratic members that are pro crypto, that recognize
21:28
Speaker 13: that this is a liability of political liability for them to.
21:31
Speaker 7: Leave it unaddressed.
21:34
Speaker 13: And the Clarity Act really has nothing to do with
21:37
Speaker 13: presidential ethics whatsoever. It provides legal clarity on what is
21:43
Speaker 13: a digital asset and how it is regulated. Those things
21:47
Speaker 13: are currently underresolved right now. This would actually provide important
21:51
Speaker 13: legal clarity on what is in fact crypto. But the
21:54
Speaker 13: politics of this are really hot for the Democratic Party
21:59
Speaker 13: and Democratic Center that are necessary to get the sixty
22:02
Speaker 13: votes in the Senate to pass the Clarity Act. This
22:06
Speaker 13: is really the only major piece of major issue remaining
22:12
Speaker 13: before the Clarity Act can be passed, and the President's
22:15
Speaker 13: financial disclosure statement is significant as it was. The enhancement
22:21
Speaker 13: of the gains and his portfolio were significant over the
22:26
Speaker 13: reporting year. That really reinforces the Democrats policy challenge. It's
22:33
Speaker 13: really a political challenge though, for them to answer to
22:37
Speaker 13: their base and their politics on trying to oppose the
22:40
Speaker 13: president and whatever economic involvement he has in the private sector.
22:46
Speaker 2: Well, so, how much time is there to get clarity done? Then, realistically,
22:51
Speaker 2: mister Chairman, if it doesn't happen before the August recesses,
22:54
Speaker 2: this effort going to go the way of the Market
22:56
Speaker 2: Structure bill you tried to get through the last Congress
22:58
Speaker 2: Bit twenty one.
23:00
Speaker 13: It has it has some markings of that. It has
23:03
Speaker 13: some markings of that that that hitting August recess and
23:07
Speaker 13: an election year means that whatever serious things you're working
23:11
Speaker 13: on is effectively dead. The difference here is that you
23:15
Speaker 13: have a significant coalition, you have majorities of both the
23:18
Speaker 13: House and the Senate, you have a bill already passed
23:21
Speaker 13: out of the House.
23:22
Speaker 7: It gives it.
23:24
Speaker 13: It means instead of the situation I was in the
23:26
Speaker 13: coming back to September where I had effectively a two
23:30
Speaker 13: percent chance. I say two percent because that was me
23:34
Speaker 13: dreaming that I at least had some chance much more
23:38
Speaker 13: like you're like a comment of saying, so you're saying
23:41
Speaker 13: there's a chance more than serious, more than serious likelihood.
23:49
Speaker 13: I think in this situation, you come back and there
23:51
Speaker 13: is a there is some level of opportunity in September
23:55
Speaker 13: to resolve clarity. If it's not resolved in July and
23:58
Speaker 13: next to none in October, this makes it very, very
24:02
Speaker 13: difficult to see clarity and acting a law unless it's
24:06
Speaker 13: passed in the month of July.
24:07
Speaker 7: The Senate has four weeks to do that.
24:09
Speaker 13: There is possibility for them to wrestle with this and
24:12
Speaker 13: then put it to a vote at least a test
24:14
Speaker 13: vote at the beginning of the month, hopefully and then
24:17
Speaker 13: getting in my view, I think if they did a
24:20
Speaker 13: test vote, they would know where the situation lies, and
24:22
Speaker 13: then they can resolve the final issues with the bill
24:25
Speaker 13: to get the commensurate at sixty votes and I think
24:28
Speaker 13: later soon and Chairman Scott and Senator Lummis absolutely view
24:34
Speaker 13: that as a major priority, and their Democratic friends are
24:37
Speaker 13: trying to figure that out as well.
24:40
Speaker 3: You know, there'll be an opportunity in September as well,
24:43
Speaker 3: mister Chairman to fund the government, and by that we
24:46
Speaker 3: can also say an opportunity to shut it down because
24:50
Speaker 3: of the lack of cooperation here with Democrats and Republicans,
24:53
Speaker 3: the most recent swing at reconciliation, and all the madness
24:56
Speaker 3: even within the Republican Party in the House US. More specifically,
25:01
Speaker 3: we're hearing the words shut down and not so quiet
25:05
Speaker 3: conversations at this point.
25:06
Speaker 6: Should we be listening to them?
25:09
Speaker 13: No, we should, But look, we had the longest government
25:12
Speaker 13: shut down in American history. The Democratic Party, who are
25:16
Speaker 13: the instigators of that, It paid no political price for that.
25:22
Speaker 13: The Tomortment, Homeland securities, effectively, chunks of it are still
25:26
Speaker 13: closed down. The Democratic parties effectively not paid a price
25:29
Speaker 13: for that. So I think the likelihood of a government
25:32
Speaker 13: shut down come October one is fairly high because the
25:36
Speaker 13: Democratic Party that possessed the votes to shut the government
25:42
Speaker 13: down have yet to pay a political price for this.
25:45
Speaker 13: So I think that is what's likely to come in October.
25:49
Speaker 13: The second thing is what we see out of the
25:51
Speaker 13: Democratic primaries, like the primary in Colorado yesterday. We see
25:57
Speaker 13: the socialists on the rise within the Democratic They have
26:00
Speaker 13: the heat, the energy, the activists class, and they're telling
26:05
Speaker 13: their elected officials the Democrat base is that they want
26:08
Speaker 13: to fight, and the way to show a fight is
26:11
Speaker 13: a government shutdown. So I think that becomes much more likely.
26:14
Speaker 13: And how does that affect people? I think it just
26:18
Speaker 13: makes it much more difficult to be a federal employee
26:21
Speaker 13: and a government employee because your pay is interrupted. That's
26:24
Speaker 13: anfortunate thing that it gets caught up in these politics.
26:28
Speaker 13: It's done when Republicans do it. I think it's equally
26:30
Speaker 13: done when Democrats do it.
26:33
Speaker 2: All right, we'll leave it on that note. The former
26:36
Speaker 2: Chair of the House Financial Services Committee, former Speaker Pro ten,
26:39
Speaker 2: former Congressman from North Carolina, Patrick mckenry, now, of course
26:42
Speaker 2: a Bloomberg Politics contributor. Thank you so much as always
26:45
Speaker 2: for joining us.
26:46
Speaker 3: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
26:48
Speaker 3: more coming up after this.
26:54
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Ketch
26:57
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27:01
Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen
27:04
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27:07
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27:11
Speaker 6: It's the first day of July.
27:12
Speaker 3: That means the first day of the quarter and the
27:14
Speaker 3: second half and so we are taking a moment here
27:16
Speaker 3: to just take stock of where we are on Wall
27:19
Speaker 3: Street after the best quarter in four years, the S
27:22
Speaker 3: and P five hundred, daring to add six points to that.
27:24
Speaker 3: As Amy just mentioned, the Nasdaq is struggling a bit,
27:27
Speaker 3: and our IPO of the day is having a great one,
27:31
Speaker 3: Bending Spoons. Kayleie I, I was feeling old with the
27:35
Speaker 3: Vimeo and Aol references this morning, but apparently these brands
27:39
Speaker 3: are still money makers.
27:40
Speaker 2: Yeah, and they're rolling them all together, I guess, trying
27:43
Speaker 2: to become the next tech conglomerate, and perhaps the money
27:46
Speaker 2: raised in this IPO will send them on their way
27:48
Speaker 2: to doing so. It's really a company of companies, if
27:51
Speaker 2: that's right, if you will, that seems to be the
27:53
Speaker 2: model here, and clearly there's investor appetite for that, with
27:56
Speaker 2: the stock now up twenty three percent at the moment
27:58
Speaker 2: in this trading date. So let's get more on that
28:00
Speaker 2: now as we turn to Norm Melnda, our chief markets
28:03
Speaker 2: correspondent for Bloomberg TV. So, Nora, when we consider the
28:08
Speaker 2: debut for Bending Spoons here, what is this signaling about
28:11
Speaker 2: the ongoing investor appetite it seems for these new offerings.
28:15
Speaker 10: Well, Kaylee, it never ends, and you're seeing the market
28:18
Speaker 10: really latching onto any names that are able to get
28:21
Speaker 10: more and more creative. So what stands out to me
28:23
Speaker 10: particularly about this IPO is the CEO saying that it's
28:27
Speaker 10: almost like Google had a baby, like Private Equity and
28:30
Speaker 10: Google had a baby together. And that's how a lot
28:33
Speaker 10: of people are thinking about this company because it's not
28:35
Speaker 10: quite just AI focus, it's not quite just tech. It's
28:38
Speaker 10: literally a company that is purchasing already existing companies in
28:42
Speaker 10: the tech space and building them and making them better.
28:45
Speaker 10: And so you're seeing the CEO essentially kind of doing
28:48
Speaker 10: a contrarian bet where you're seeing a lot of these
28:49
Speaker 10: startups coming out. Well, the company is essentially thinking that
28:53
Speaker 10: we can purchase these companies, snatch them up all together
28:56
Speaker 10: into a bundle, and make them better instead of spending
28:59
Speaker 10: time on an actual startup from scratch.
29:03
Speaker 3: So how are we feeling about this market, Nora? As
29:06
Speaker 3: we roll into the second half here, there are a
29:07
Speaker 3: lot of calls for a potential further unwinding in the
29:11
Speaker 3: AI trade. For instance, Micron's taking it pretty hard today.
29:14
Speaker 3: Even the President posted some nice words about Micron and
29:17
Speaker 3: its CEO, the stocks down about one hundred dollars even
29:20
Speaker 3: after that monster quarter it reported last week. Are we
29:23
Speaker 3: in the throes of a rotation or could we see
29:25
Speaker 3: a summer pullback?
29:26
Speaker 10: I mean, I've been hearing a bit of a split
29:28
Speaker 10: on both sides of the sources that I've been speaking with.
29:31
Speaker 10: On the one hand, we've been seeing this continuous rotation
29:33
Speaker 10: as people go in and out of the tech space,
29:36
Speaker 10: investors not wanting to put all of their money necessarily
29:39
Speaker 10: into tech and not seeing these companies actually see some
29:42
Speaker 10: return on investment and seeing all the things that they're
29:44
Speaker 10: clamoring for all the money that they're spending actually up
29:47
Speaker 10: being put to work correctly. But then on the other hand,
29:50
Speaker 10: you're still seeing people considerably, considerably bullish on the tech space.
29:55
Speaker 10: I mean, we saw the sp five hundred up about
29:57
Speaker 10: ten percent so far this year. A lot of investors
30:00
Speaker 10: are still looking for certain pockets of tech that they
30:03
Speaker 10: think make sense. So this essentially, from what I'm hearing
30:05
Speaker 10: from my sources, it's going to be the season of
30:08
Speaker 10: investors being picky. They're going to start diving into individual
30:11
Speaker 10: names and seeing which ones actually stand out.
30:14
Speaker 3: Soy and need to listen to what Nora is talking
30:16
Speaker 3: about here. We'll meet you on the late edition Normal
30:19
Speaker 3: into Life from World Headquarters in New York, and we'll
30:21
Speaker 3: have another read on the markets from Amy Morris coming
30:23
Speaker 3: up at two pm Eastern time, top of the hour,
30:26
Speaker 3: as we welcome Bloomberg Business Week Daily. Really important story
30:29
Speaker 3: today in Washington and has to do with the USMCA,
30:32
Speaker 3: and it may not be a surprise if you read
30:34
Speaker 3: the terminal or are reporting at Bloomberg dot com. The
30:37
Speaker 3: administration is pulling away from this whole concept, deciding now
30:40
Speaker 3: against renewing its trade deal with Canada and Mexico, choosing
30:44
Speaker 3: instead to conduct annual reviews. Remembering this is the day,
30:48
Speaker 3: of course, that it rolls into a renewal without a negotiation,
30:53
Speaker 3: so nothing's technically changed now. The question is what will
30:56
Speaker 3: be the administration's posture going forward, knowing that it is
30:59
Speaker 3: a vault quite a bit since the President first negotiated
31:02
Speaker 3: the USMCA.
31:03
Speaker 8: Listen, the USMCA is the largest, fairest, most balanced, and
31:08
Speaker 8: modern trade agreement ever achieved. I would rather not have
31:11
Speaker 8: the agreement, but I may sign it. We do better
31:14
Speaker 8: as a country if we don't have an.
31:15
Speaker 3: Agreement, and we don't have an agreement. Well, I guess
31:21
Speaker 3: technically to change anything again, we roll into a new
31:24
Speaker 3: year with the same USMCA and joining us to talk
31:28
Speaker 3: about this its impact on manufacturing and a lot of
31:31
Speaker 3: other issues.
31:32
Speaker 6: Is an important voice of industry.
31:35
Speaker 3: Jay Timmins is here, the President's CEO, National Association of
31:38
Speaker 3: Manufacturers A world over do Jay, it's great to see you.
31:40
Speaker 6: Welcome back to Bloomberg.
31:42
Speaker 1: See you.
31:42
Speaker 3: Are you troubled by this headline or do you take
31:44
Speaker 3: comfort in knowing that this actually doesn't make a big
31:46
Speaker 3: difference today?
31:47
Speaker 14: Well? Kind of both, right, Okay, So look, I think
31:51
Speaker 14: we kind of expected this. The administration has signaled, the
31:54
Speaker 14: President has certainly signaled then he has some concerns that
31:56
Speaker 14: he wanted to see addressed. As you noted, the the
32:00
Speaker 14: agreement still is in effect for ten years. Yes, I
32:02
Speaker 14: actually don't think an annual review is a bad thing
32:05
Speaker 14: because the economy changes constantly. The world has changed. I
32:10
Speaker 14: mean we see over the last year, we've seen how
32:11
Speaker 14: the world changes. So there are a few issues that
32:15
Speaker 14: probably need to be addressed. So Chinese transhipments is one
32:18
Speaker 14: that the the administration's goal when USMCA was put into
32:24
Speaker 14: place during the first Trump administration was to pivot manufacturing
32:29
Speaker 14: away from Asia and into the North American continent. That
32:31
Speaker 14: has largely happened. We see the numbers, the ism numbers
32:35
Speaker 14: today kind of proving that to be the case. But
32:38
Speaker 14: there's still some issues with some of those issues that
32:42
Speaker 14: they were trying to address back then. Then. I mentioned
32:44
Speaker 14: the transhipment getting into the energy sector of the energy
32:49
Speaker 14: market down in Mexico is one thing that I think
32:52
Speaker 14: we want to see address some of the agricultural issues
32:54
Speaker 14: with Canada. Those are some things that need to be addressed.
32:57
Speaker 4: But overall, I have to.
32:58
Speaker 14: Think that this this USMCA deal was a great success
33:02
Speaker 14: story for the United States and North America.
33:05
Speaker 2: Well, so when we consider the administration's suggestion that it's
33:07
Speaker 2: going to pursue basically separate conversations with Mexico and Canada,
33:11
Speaker 2: what would be lost for the manufacturing sector if they
33:15
Speaker 2: had to navigate basically two different trading systems. If that
33:18
Speaker 2: is ultimately a two new sets of deals that are
33:21
Speaker 2: negotiated rather than one North American pact.
33:24
Speaker 14: I mean, look, I think that that is a possibility, Kayley,
33:27
Speaker 14: But it has worked so well as a trilateral agreement
33:33
Speaker 14: that I'm hoping that we can get back to that point.
33:36
Speaker 14: And I know and I've met with the ministers of
33:38
Speaker 14: both countries. I've talked with my counterparts in Mexico and Canada,
33:43
Speaker 14: and we know that with the right policies in place,
33:47
Speaker 14: it can work. So our hope is that we'll get
33:50
Speaker 14: through some of these some of these hurdles, if you will,
33:54
Speaker 14: that the administration has identified, and then we'll have a
33:58
Speaker 14: solid agreement moving forward.
34:00
Speaker 3: I want to talk to you about energy, which is
34:01
Speaker 3: on our minds every day around here, and following the
34:03
Speaker 3: reopening of the Strait, we've seen a pretty remarkable decline
34:06
Speaker 3: in oil price. Is sixty eight dollars a barrel for
34:09
Speaker 3: WDTI or as seventy one for Brent right now.
34:11
Speaker 6: Diesel is its own story, though, and I'm wondering what.
34:14
Speaker 3: You're hearing from members, if there's a sense of relief
34:17
Speaker 3: or concern that we just spent several months paying a
34:20
Speaker 3: lot more money to get around you.
34:22
Speaker 14: Know, it's kind of funny. Just as an anecdote, I
34:24
Speaker 14: was in Colorado yesterday driving to the airport, and I
34:29
Speaker 14: was stopped at a stoplight and there's a gas station
34:32
Speaker 14: right to my right, and they head an electronic board.
34:34
Speaker 14: I would literally watch the price drop twelve cents while
34:37
Speaker 14: I was sitting there. So when the President says that
34:40
Speaker 14: things we'll move quickly, it certainly was born out at
34:44
Speaker 14: that gas station. But to your question, Joe, look, energy
34:50
Speaker 14: costs are a huge input factor for manufacturers. We use
34:53
Speaker 14: twenty percent of the nation's energy in manufacturing, so every
34:58
Speaker 14: time something moves up on the energy side or the
35:02
Speaker 14: cost of energy, that does have a negative impact for manufacturer.
35:05
Speaker 14: So we're glad to see obviously that there is this
35:09
Speaker 14: agreement that has been negotiated, a ceasefire at least for now,
35:13
Speaker 14: and we're hopeful that it sticks because it is it
35:15
Speaker 14: is problematic when energy prices do go up. But it
35:18
Speaker 14: also I think points out the relative stability that we've seen,
35:23
Speaker 14: and you mentioned sixty eight right now. It shows how
35:28
Speaker 14: important it is for us to be pursuing energy dominance
35:32
Speaker 14: here in the United States, and so the more we
35:34
Speaker 14: are able to produce here at home, the better it
35:37
Speaker 14: is for the global market. It, of course, prices are
35:40
Speaker 14: set on a global scale, and it has a big
35:43
Speaker 14: impact based on what we can produce right here in
35:46
Speaker 14: the United States.
35:47
Speaker 2: Well, so when we consider the energy mix here in
35:50
Speaker 2: the United States, we've obviously seen the President pushing more
35:53
Speaker 2: toward nuclear power. For example, as we're in the middle
35:57
Speaker 2: of a heat wave here on the East Coast, there's
35:59
Speaker 2: a question as to whether or not our grids are
36:01
Speaker 2: going to be able to sustain it. In all these
36:02
Speaker 2: power sources, and especially data center ally as well in
36:06
Speaker 2: Northern Virginia, there's obviously a lot of competition for energy.
36:10
Speaker 2: So how is the manufacturing sector thinking about about the
36:14
Speaker 2: mix here are involvement.
36:15
Speaker 14: So we're always for all of the above, we always
36:17
Speaker 14: have been. But you know, we had a really great
36:20
Speaker 14: set of news come out today. There are three advanced
36:24
Speaker 14: nuclear reactors that are actually up and running and they're
36:27
Speaker 14: going to be producing electricity within the next two or
36:29
Speaker 14: three years. That announcement literally came this morning that we
36:32
Speaker 14: had three of those. The President challenged the nuclear industry
36:35
Speaker 14: to be able to produce those by July fourth, Independence
36:39
Speaker 14: Day this year, and I'm really pleased to see that
36:41
Speaker 14: that is the case. That we're moving forward with that,
36:45
Speaker 14: with that vision, that is going to be critical. But
36:47
Speaker 14: you know, it's not just nuclear obviously, it's not just
36:51
Speaker 14: oil and gas, it's alternatives. It is wind, it is
36:55
Speaker 14: solar all of those and that is important for the
36:57
Speaker 14: energy mix in this country as well as globally. We're
37:00
Speaker 14: seeing it in other countries as well.
37:01
Speaker 3: It's really interesting how far we've come from Three Mile
37:04
Speaker 3: Island in terms of public perception and the drive to
37:07
Speaker 3: get small modular reactors in place adjacent to data centers.
37:12
Speaker 3: Is that part of the association Jensen Wong likes to
37:15
Speaker 3: call data centers AI factories?
37:17
Speaker 6: Is that part of your group?
37:19
Speaker 4: Yes?
37:20
Speaker 14: Absolutely?
37:20
Speaker 6: Or is economies that are building data centers.
37:22
Speaker 14: So we have we have lots of technology members and
37:27
Speaker 14: technology manufacturers and our membership, and you're exactly right. AI
37:32
Speaker 14: AI factories, you know, are the future. And to your point,
37:37
Speaker 14: we help build those factories. We utilize AI ourselves in
37:42
Speaker 14: manufacturing operations and it's helping us become more efficient, more
37:45
Speaker 14: productive and being able to utilize the technology to invent
37:50
Speaker 14: new things, new and new ways of doing business.
37:53
Speaker 2: Do you see artificial intelligence or more automation in general
37:57
Speaker 2: is something that eventually is going to lead to were
38:00
Speaker 2: manufacturing jobs in this country?
38:02
Speaker 14: I do not. It's I get that question a lot,
38:05
Speaker 14: as you can imagine. I don't blame I don't blame
38:07
Speaker 14: folks for asking it, But what we have seen our
38:10
Speaker 14: real life experience is AI is being used to enhance
38:13
Speaker 14: the manufacturing workplace and actually allowing workers to be more
38:18
Speaker 14: productive and to be more successful. That is a question
38:22
Speaker 14: that has existed for decades. So think about when automation
38:28
Speaker 14: first really started to take off, or when the assembly
38:30
Speaker 14: line you know back Henry Forwards days, or automation and
38:34
Speaker 14: then the personal computer. All of those technological advances has
38:39
Speaker 14: led to that question, is this going to hurt manufacturing jobs?
38:42
Speaker 14: And in every single instance it has allowed manufacturers to
38:46
Speaker 14: do more with different tools, if you will, right, So.
38:51
Speaker 3: Give us a state of play out of the jobs
38:52
Speaker 3: reports tomorrow. Be a little weird getting a job's Thursday,
38:55
Speaker 3: but that's our plan for eight thirty am. What will
38:58
Speaker 3: manufacturing bring to us in terms of growth in this report?
39:02
Speaker 14: Well, I've heard that we will likely see a slight
39:06
Speaker 14: increase in manufacturing employment, which does not surprise me because,
39:10
Speaker 14: as we indicated, the ISM numbers came out six straight
39:13
Speaker 14: months of growth in manufacturing. But here's the here's the
39:18
Speaker 14: other side of that. We have today five hundred and
39:21
Speaker 14: thirty thousand open jobs in manufacturing. So wow, I want
39:25
Speaker 14: to see us fill a lot more of those, right.
39:27
Speaker 6: That sounds like a training story. Is that a training story?
39:30
Speaker 6: How do you fill those jobs?
39:31
Speaker 14: It's really it's really just a match of qualifications, right,
39:36
Speaker 14: and attracting more people into the industry. We're not alone.
39:40
Speaker 14: Every sector of the economy has open jobs for the
39:43
Speaker 14: most part, but this number is I would think a
39:47
Speaker 14: big concern for policy makers because for every job that
39:52
Speaker 14: is filled in manufacturing, there are another three or four
39:54
Speaker 14: jobs created in other sectors. For every dollar that is
39:57
Speaker 14: produced in manufacturing, you have another dollar eighty five of
40:02
Speaker 14: spinoff economic activities. So the more people that are in manufacturing,
40:05
Speaker 14: the better an economy does.
40:07
Speaker 2: All right, we'll leave it on that note. The President
40:09
Speaker 2: and CEO of the National Association of Manufacturers, Jane Timmins,
40:13
Speaker 2: here with us in our Washington, DC studio.
40:15
Speaker 9: Is good to see you.
40:18
Speaker 6: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
40:21
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40:27
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40:30
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