Latest / Views from 6,230 / Deciphering Risk in Private Credit Markets
Transcript
- 0:01Welcome
- 0:02to
- 0:02the
- 0:02Adjusted
- 0:03for
- 0:03Risk
- 0:03Podcast.
- 0:04Join
- 0:05myself,
- 0:06Brian
- 0:06Nauman
- 0:07as
- 0:07I
- 0:07talk
- 0:07market
- 0:08investment
- 0:09economic.
- 0:09Let's
- 0:09get
- 0:09started
- 0:10in
- 0:10life
- 0:11as
- 0:11I
- 0:11help
- 0:11prepare
- 0:12you
- 0:12for
- 0:12the
- 0:12upcoming
- 0:13week
- 0:13in
- 0:14markets.
- 0:15I
- 0:15work
- 0:16for
- 0:16Zephyr
- 0:16in
- 0:17all
- 0:17of
- 0:17express.
- 0:18Self
- 0:19in
- 0:19my
- 0:20podcast,
- 0:20guests
- 0:21are
- 0:21solely
- 0:21of
- 0:21their
- 0:22own
- 0:22opinions
- 0:22and
- 0:22do
- 0:23not
- 0:23reflect
- 0:23the
- 0:24opinion
- 0:24of
- 0:25Zephyr
- 0:26or
- 0:26Informa
- 0:27its
- 0:27Payers
- 0:27company.
- 0:28This
- 0:29podcast
- 0:30is
- 0:30for
- 0:30information
- 0:31and
- 0:31purposes
- 0:32only
- 0:32and
- 0:32should
- 0:32not
- 0:33be
- 0:33relied
- 0:33on
- 0:34for
- 0:34investment
- 0:35decisions.
- 0:38Welcome
- 0:39everyone
- 0:39to
- 0:39zephyr's
- 0:40Adjusted
- 0:40for
- 0:40Risk
- 0:41podcast.
- 0:42We
- 0:42are
- 0:42recording
- 0:43on
- 0:43location
- 0:45at
- 0:45the
- 0:45Exchange
- 0:46ETF
- 0:47conference.
- 0:47It's
- 0:48been
- 0:48a
- 0:48great
- 0:48couple
- 0:49of
- 0:49days.
- 0:49I've
- 0:49had
- 0:49some
- 0:50fantastic
- 0:51conversations
- 0:51and
- 0:52the
- 0:52next
- 0:52one.
- 0:52I'm
- 0:53sure
- 0:53is
- 0:53gonna
- 0:53be
- 0:54a
- 0:54great
- 0:54conversation
- 0:55to
- 0:56one
- 0:56that
- 0:56I'm
- 0:56really
- 0:56looking
- 0:57forward
- 0:57to
- 0:58on
- 0:58a
- 0:58very
- 0:58timely
- 0:59topic.
- 1:00You
- 1:00know,
- 1:00it's
- 1:01one
- 1:01of
- 1:01the
- 1:01hottest
- 1:02topics
- 1:02in
- 1:02the
- 1:02wealth
- 1:03and
- 1:03asset
- 1:03management
- 1:04space
- 1:04has
- 1:05been
- 1:05private
- 1:05credit.
- 1:06The
- 1:07asset
- 1:07space
- 1:07has
- 1:07grown
- 1:08tremendously
- 1:09since
- 1:10the
- 1:10great
- 1:10financial
- 1:11crisis
- 1:12and
- 1:12now
- 1:12it's
- 1:13under
- 1:13heavy
- 1:13scrutiny.
- 1:14Well,
- 1:15I
- 1:15have
- 1:15on
- 1:15the.
- 1:15Perfect
- 1:16guests
- 1:17to
- 1:17tell
- 1:17us
- 1:18if
- 1:18the
- 1:18concerns
- 1:19are
- 1:19warranted
- 1:20or
- 1:20not.
- 1:21But
- 1:21first,
- 1:21this
- 1:22episode
- 1:22is
- 1:22sponsored
- 1:23by
- 1:23the
- 1:23award-winning
- 1:24Zephyr,
- 1:24which
- 1:25helps
- 1:25investment
- 1:26professionals
- 1:26make
- 1:27more
- 1:27informed
- 1:28investment
- 1:28decisions
- 1:29on
- 1:29behalf
- 1:30of
- 1:30their
- 1:30clients.
- 1:31All
- 1:31right.
- 1:31Enough
- 1:31for
- 1:31me.
- 1:32I've
- 1:32already
- 1:32talked
- 1:33enough.
- 1:33Let's
- 1:34bring
- 1:34on
- 1:34the
- 1:34star
- 1:35of
- 1:35the
- 1:35show.
- 1:35I'd
- 1:36like
- 1:36to
- 1:36welcome
- 1:36Chris
- 1:37Getter.
- 1:38Chris
- 1:38is
- 1:39the
- 1:39managing
- 1:40director
- 1:40and
- 1:40portfolio
- 1:41manager
- 1:42at
- 1:42Simplify
- 1:43Asset
- 1:43Management.
- 1:44Chris,
- 1:45thank
- 1:45you
- 1:45so
- 1:45much
- 1:45for
- 1:46coming
- 1:46on.
- 1:46It's
- 1:46an
- 1:47honor
- 1:47to
- 1:47have
- 1:47you.
- 1:48I'm
- 1:48really
- 1:48excited
- 1:48about
- 1:49this
- 1:49conversation.
- 1:50Can
- 1:50you
- 1:50please
- 1:50tell
- 1:50us
- 1:50a
- 1:51little
- 1:51bit
- 1:51more
- 1:51about
- 1:51yourself
- 1:52and
- 1:52simplify
- 1:52asset
- 1:53management?
- 1:54Sure.
- 1:54Thanks
- 1:54for
- 1:54having
- 1:55me
- 1:55on,
- 1:55Ryan.
- 1:55I'm
- 1:55excited
- 1:55to
- 1:56be
- 1:56here
- 1:56too.
- 1:57Um,
- 1:57so
- 1:57I
- 1:57joined
- 1:58Simplify
- 1:58about
- 1:59two
- 1:59years
- 1:59ago
- 2:00and
- 2:00most
- 2:01of
- 2:01our
- 2:02focus.
- 2:03Is
- 2:04on
- 2:04bringing
- 2:05alternatives
- 2:06into
- 2:06the
- 2:07ETF
- 2:07structure.
- 2:07So
- 2:08we
- 2:08are
- 2:09taking
- 2:09full
- 2:09advantage
- 2:10of
- 2:10some
- 2:10of
- 2:10the
- 2:11regulatory
- 2:11changes
- 2:12that
- 2:12occurred
- 2:12just
- 2:13over
- 2:13five
- 2:13years
- 2:13ago,
- 2:14uh,
- 2:14specifically
- 2:15with
- 2:15respect
- 2:16to
- 2:16deployment
- 2:17of
- 2:17leverage
- 2:17utilization
- 2:18of
- 2:18derivatives
- 2:19in
- 2:19ETFs
- 2:20to
- 2:20make
- 2:21what
- 2:21would
- 2:21normally
- 2:22be
- 2:22strategies
- 2:23that
- 2:23are
- 2:24restricted
- 2:24to
- 2:25institutional
- 2:25investors
- 2:26available
- 2:26to
- 2:26a
- 2:27broader
- 2:27audience
- 2:28in
- 2:28the
- 2:28liquid
- 2:29ETF
- 2:29structure.
- 2:31Uh,
- 2:31that's
- 2:31fantastic.
- 2:32Chris,
- 2:32I'm
- 2:33a
- 2:33big
- 2:33believer
- 2:34in
- 2:34democratization
- 2:36of
- 2:36investments.
- 2:36Like
- 2:37why
- 2:37should
- 2:38these
- 2:38institutional
- 2:39level
- 2:40strategies
- 2:41be
- 2:41only
- 2:41for
- 2:41institutions?
- 2:42Right,
- 2:43and
- 2:43especially
- 2:43alternatives.
- 2:44They
- 2:44can.
- 2:45It
- 2:45brings
- 2:46such
- 2:46good
- 2:46benefits
- 2:47to
- 2:47a
- 2:47portfolio
- 2:48through
- 2:48diversification,
- 2:50you
- 2:50know,
- 2:50maybe
- 2:50enhanced
- 2:51risk
- 2:52adjusted
- 2:52returns.
- 2:53So
- 2:53I'm
- 2:54glad
- 2:54that,
- 2:54especially
- 2:54in
- 2:55the
- 2:55ETF
- 2:55wrapper
- 2:56where
- 2:56um,
- 2:57they're
- 2:57easier
- 2:58to
- 2:58access
- 2:59access.
- 3:00You
- 3:00also
- 3:00have
- 3:01that
- 3:01transparency
- 3:02and
- 3:02everything
- 3:02that
- 3:02goes
- 3:02along
- 3:03with
- 3:03that
- 3:03ETF.
- 3:05And
- 3:05like
- 3:05I
- 3:05said,
- 3:05private
- 3:06credit,
- 3:06it's
- 3:06come
- 3:07under
- 3:07huge
- 3:08scrutiny
- 3:08recently
- 3:09for,
- 3:10for
- 3:10obvious
- 3:10reasons.
- 3:11But
- 3:11Chris,
- 3:12how
- 3:13have
- 3:13we.
- 3:14Got
- 3:14to
- 3:14this
- 3:14point
- 3:14where
- 3:15people
- 3:15are
- 3:15now
- 3:15concerned
- 3:16that
- 3:16this
- 3:17crisis,
- 3:18if
- 3:19you
- 3:19want
- 3:19to
- 3:19call
- 3:19it
- 3:19crisis,
- 3:20I
- 3:20don't
- 3:20think
- 3:20it's
- 3:20a
- 3:20crisis
- 3:21yet,
- 3:21but
- 3:22could
- 3:22snowball
- 3:23into,
- 3:24you
- 3:24know,
- 3:24a
- 3:25major
- 3:25crisis
- 3:26for
- 3:26the
- 3:26financial
- 3:27markets.
- 3:30So
- 3:30I,
- 3:31I,
- 3:31I'm
- 3:31not
- 3:32in
- 3:32the
- 3:32crisis
- 3:32camp
- 3:33and
- 3:34I
- 3:34think
- 3:34what
- 3:34we
- 3:35have
- 3:35seen
- 3:35in
- 3:37private
- 3:37credit
- 3:38is.
- 3:39Maybe,
- 3:41maybe
- 3:41it's
- 3:42the
- 3:42tell,
- 3:43but
- 3:43a
- 3:43lot
- 3:44of
- 3:44it
- 3:44is
- 3:44really
- 3:45more
- 3:45endemic
- 3:46to
- 3:46what's
- 3:46gone
- 3:46on
- 3:46in
- 3:47private
- 3:47credit
- 3:47and
- 3:47how
- 3:48the
- 3:48asset
- 3:48class
- 3:49has
- 3:49evolved.
- 3:50So
- 3:51going
- 3:51back
- 3:51to
- 3:52the
- 3:52summer,
- 3:53early
- 3:53fall
- 3:53of
- 3:54last
- 3:54year,
- 3:54you
- 3:54had
- 3:54some
- 3:55idiosyncratic
- 3:55events.
- 3:57Uh,
- 3:57first
- 3:57brands
- 3:58tricolor
- 3:59More
- 3:59recently
- 4:00you've
- 4:00had
- 4:00MFS
- 4:01naturally
- 4:02leads
- 4:02people
- 4:02to
- 4:03wonder,
- 4:03you
- 4:03know,
- 4:03are
- 4:03there,
- 4:04are
- 4:04there
- 4:04many,
- 4:05many
- 4:05more
- 4:05of
- 4:05these
- 4:05idiosyncratic
- 4:06events?
- 4:06That's
- 4:07number
- 4:07one.
- 4:07Yeah.
- 4:08Number
- 4:08two
- 4:09is
- 4:09the
- 4:09disruptive
- 4:10potential
- 4:11of
- 4:11AI
- 4:13as
- 4:13it
- 4:13pertains
- 4:13to
- 4:14the
- 4:14tech
- 4:14sector
- 4:15where
- 4:15a
- 4:15lot
- 4:15of
- 4:15private
- 4:16sector
- 4:17credit
- 4:17has
- 4:17been
- 4:18deployed
- 4:19much
- 4:19more
- 4:19so
- 4:19than
- 4:20in
- 4:20the
- 4:20high
- 4:20yield
- 4:20market.
- 4:21Technology
- 4:22in
- 4:22the
- 4:22high
- 4:22yield
- 4:22market
- 4:22is,
- 4:23is
- 4:24somewhere
- 4:24between
- 4:24five
- 4:25and
- 4:2510%.
- 4:25It
- 4:26tends
- 4:26to
- 4:26be
- 4:26skewed
- 4:27more
- 4:27towards,
- 4:28uh,
- 4:28consumer
- 4:29sectors.
- 4:30And
- 4:30the
- 4:30third,
- 4:30more
- 4:31recently
- 4:31is
- 4:32the
- 4:32impact
- 4:32of
- 4:33what's
- 4:33going
- 4:33on
- 4:33in
- 4:33Iran
- 4:34and
- 4:34how
- 4:34that
- 4:34might
- 4:35dent
- 4:35the
- 4:36uh,
- 4:36US
- 4:37economy.
- 4:38All
- 4:38of
- 4:38that
- 4:38has
- 4:38a
- 4:38gain
- 4:39weight,
- 4:39um,
- 4:40against
- 4:41private
- 4:41credit.
- 4:42But
- 4:42more
- 4:43broadly,
- 4:44if
- 4:44we
- 4:44look
- 4:44at
- 4:44what's
- 4:45gone
- 4:45on
- 4:45in
- 4:45the
- 4:45high
- 4:45yield
- 4:46market,
- 4:46we've
- 4:46been
- 4:46saying
- 4:47that
- 4:47high
- 4:47yield
- 4:47is
- 4:47probably
- 4:48too
- 4:48tight
- 4:49for,
- 4:50you
- 4:50know,
- 4:50going
- 4:50on
- 4:50a
- 4:50year
- 4:51now,
- 4:51um,
- 4:52not
- 4:52only
- 4:53do
- 4:53some
- 4:54of
- 4:54the,
- 4:54the
- 4:55economic
- 4:55variables
- 4:56that
- 4:56we
- 4:56look
- 4:56at
- 4:57suggest
- 4:58to
- 4:58us
- 4:58that
- 4:58high
- 4:58yield
- 4:59had
- 4:59been
- 4:59stretched,
- 5:00but
- 5:00also
- 5:01the
- 5:01realized
- 5:02bank
- 5:02level
- 5:03of
- 5:03bankruptcies
- 5:03among
- 5:04corporates
- 5:04has
- 5:04now
- 5:04risen.
- 5:05To
- 5:06about
- 5:0650%
- 5:07above
- 5:08the
- 5:08trailing
- 5:0812
- 5:08month
- 5:09average.
- 5:09So
- 5:09there's
- 5:09clearly
- 5:10some
- 5:10signs
- 5:10of
- 5:10stress
- 5:11in
- 5:11the
- 5:11market
- 5:13against
- 5:13that,
- 5:13Ryan,
- 5:14and
- 5:14I'd
- 5:14weigh
- 5:14the
- 5:14fact
- 5:14that
- 5:15we've
- 5:15had
- 5:15a
- 5:15significant
- 5:16repricing
- 5:16already,
- 5:18um,
- 5:18and
- 5:18probably
- 5:19more
- 5:19advanced
- 5:19in
- 5:20private
- 5:20credit
- 5:21than
- 5:21it
- 5:21is
- 5:21in
- 5:21the
- 5:22high
- 5:22yield
- 5:22market.
- 5:22So
- 5:22high
- 5:23yield
- 5:23market
- 5:23spreads,
- 5:24bottomed.
- 5:25In
- 5:25January,
- 5:26there
- 5:26are
- 5:26about
- 5:2670,
- 5:2775
- 5:27basis
- 5:27points
- 5:28wider.
- 5:28So
- 5:28far
- 5:29in
- 5:30private
- 5:30credit,
- 5:30you've
- 5:31had
- 5:31discounts,
- 5:31widen
- 5:32discounts
- 5:33to
- 5:33book
- 5:33value,
- 5:34um,
- 5:35widen
- 5:35to
- 5:35north
- 5:36of
- 5:3620%.
- 5:37So
- 5:37there's
- 5:37a
- 5:37lot
- 5:37of
- 5:37pain
- 5:38priced
- 5:38into
- 5:38the
- 5:38market
- 5:39already.
- 5:40That's
- 5:40interesting
- 5:41that
- 5:41there
- 5:42is
- 5:42a
- 5:42lot
- 5:42of
- 5:42pain
- 5:42because
- 5:43like
- 5:43you
- 5:43said,
- 5:44when
- 5:44I
- 5:44look
- 5:44at
- 5:45credit
- 5:45spreads,
- 5:46they're
- 5:47pretty,
- 5:48they've
- 5:48gone
- 5:48up
- 5:48a
- 5:48little
- 5:49bit
- 5:49recently,
- 5:49but
- 5:50they're
- 5:50still
- 5:50very
- 5:50tight.
- 5:51It's
- 5:51like.
- 5:52I
- 5:52feel
- 5:53as
- 5:53if
- 5:53they
- 5:53should
- 5:53be
- 5:53wider
- 5:54for
- 5:54the
- 5:54uncertainty
- 5:55that's
- 5:55out
- 5:55there.
- 5:56Right.
- 5:56But
- 5:56you're
- 5:57seeing
- 5:57that
- 5:57more,
- 5:58you
- 5:58know,
- 5:58pri
- 5:59the
- 5:59private
- 6:00space
- 6:01is
- 6:01kind
- 6:01of
- 6:01indicating
- 6:02maybe
- 6:02there
- 6:02is
- 6:03some
- 6:03distress
- 6:04out
- 6:04there.
- 6:05I
- 6:05think
- 6:05so.
- 6:05Um,
- 6:06so
- 6:07our
- 6:07estimates,
- 6:08I.
- 6:09Okay,
- 6:10going
- 6:10back
- 6:10to
- 6:10wind
- 6:11spreads,
- 6:11were
- 6:11at
- 6:11the
- 6:11tights,
- 6:12and
- 6:12you're
- 6:12right,
- 6:12they,
- 6:12they
- 6:13were
- 6:13upwards
- 6:13of
- 6:14the
- 6:1490th
- 6:14percentile,
- 6:15actually
- 6:15upwards
- 6:16of
- 6:16the
- 6:1695th
- 6:16percentile
- 6:17of
- 6:17tightness
- 6:18relative
- 6:18to
- 6:18their
- 6:18history.
- 6:19Um,
- 6:20our
- 6:21assessment
- 6:21at
- 6:21the
- 6:21time
- 6:22was
- 6:22that
- 6:22they
- 6:22were
- 6:22probably
- 6:23200
- 6:23ish
- 6:24basis
- 6:24points
- 6:25too
- 6:25tight.
- 6:25This
- 6:25is
- 6:25in
- 6:26the
- 6:26US
- 6:26high
- 6:26yield
- 6:26market.
- 6:27You've
- 6:27had
- 6:28a
- 6:28roughly
- 6:2880
- 6:29basis
- 6:29point
- 6:29widening
- 6:30so
- 6:30far,
- 6:31so
- 6:31they're
- 6:31still
- 6:31tight.
- 6:32Mm-hmm.
- 6:33So
- 6:33I,
- 6:33I
- 6:33definitely
- 6:34agree
- 6:34with,
- 6:34with
- 6:34that
- 6:35sentiment.
- 6:36So
- 6:37do
- 6:37you
- 6:37think,
- 6:37and
- 6:37I
- 6:37think.
- 6:38You
- 6:38kind
- 6:39of
- 6:39already
- 6:39answered
- 6:40this
- 6:40question,
- 6:40but
- 6:41do
- 6:41you
- 6:41think
- 6:41the
- 6:41concerns
- 6:42in
- 6:42private
- 6:42credit,
- 6:43that
- 6:43issue,
- 6:43they're
- 6:44a
- 6:44little
- 6:44overdone,
- 6:45maybe
- 6:45we're
- 6:45a
- 6:45little
- 6:46too
- 6:46concerned
- 6:47and
- 6:50o
- 6:50overdone.
- 6:51I,
- 6:51I
- 6:52don't
- 6:52know
- 6:52if
- 6:52I'd
- 6:52say
- 6:52they're
- 6:53overdone,
- 6:53they're
- 6:53warranted.
- 6:54This
- 6:54is
- 6:54a
- 6:55new
- 6:55asset
- 6:55class
- 6:55that
- 6:56people
- 6:56have
- 6:56not
- 6:57the
- 6:57sort
- 6:57of
- 6:57familiarity
- 6:58with.
- 6:59I
- 6:59think
- 7:00people
- 7:00are
- 7:00coming
- 7:00to
- 7:00the
- 7:01realization
- 7:01in
- 7:01some
- 7:02cases,
- 7:03um,
- 7:03that
- 7:04their
- 7:04capital
- 7:05is
- 7:05locked
- 7:06up,
- 7:07right?
- 7:07Like.
- 7:07It,
- 7:08it,
- 7:08it's
- 7:08not
- 7:08that
- 7:08this
- 7:09is
- 7:09a
- 7:09surprise
- 7:09to
- 7:09people,
- 7:10it's
- 7:11a
- 7:11surprise
- 7:11that,
- 7:12you
- 7:12know,
- 7:13it's
- 7:13a
- 7:13surprise
- 7:13to
- 7:14them
- 7:14that
- 7:14they
- 7:14were
- 7:14gonna
- 7:14want
- 7:14their
- 7:15money
- 7:15back
- 7:15that
- 7:15quickly.
- 7:16So
- 7:16I
- 7:16don't
- 7:16think
- 7:16it's
- 7:17a,
- 7:17it's
- 7:17nothing
- 7:17endemic
- 7:18to
- 7:18the
- 7:18asset
- 7:18class,
- 7:19aside
- 7:19from,
- 7:21you
- 7:21know,
- 7:21people,
- 7:21people
- 7:22starting
- 7:22to
- 7:22have
- 7:22a
- 7:22better
- 7:23appreciation
- 7:23for
- 7:24the
- 7:25way
- 7:25that
- 7:25these
- 7:25structures
- 7:26work.
- 7:26And
- 7:27the
- 7:27second
- 7:27thing
- 7:27is,
- 7:27there's
- 7:28being
- 7:28a
- 7:28huge
- 7:28amount
- 7:28of
- 7:29dispersion.
- 7:30Like
- 7:30if
- 7:30you
- 7:30pick,
- 7:31you
- 7:31know,
- 7:31let's
- 7:31just
- 7:32say
- 7:32you
- 7:32pick
- 7:32A,
- 7:32B,
- 7:32D,
- 7:33C
- 7:33to
- 7:33express
- 7:34your
- 7:34private
- 7:34credit
- 7:34view.
- 7:35Business
- 7:35development
- 7:36company
- 7:36that
- 7:37lends
- 7:37to
- 7:37the,
- 7:38to
- 7:38the
- 7:38private
- 7:38sector.
- 7:39Um,
- 7:40you
- 7:40could
- 7:40have
- 7:40a
- 7:40very
- 7:41good
- 7:41experience
- 7:42last
- 7:42year.
- 7:43You
- 7:43could
- 7:43have
- 7:44bought
- 7:44somebody
- 7:44that
- 7:44was
- 7:44up
- 7:4525%.
- 7:46You
- 7:47could
- 7:47have
- 7:47bought
- 7:47somebody
- 7:47who
- 7:47was
- 7:48down
- 7:4825%.
- 7:49So
- 7:51I
- 7:51think
- 7:51we
- 7:51need
- 7:52to
- 7:52separate
- 7:52the
- 7:53asset
- 7:53allocation
- 7:54decision
- 7:55from
- 7:55the
- 7:55manager
- 7:56selection
- 7:56decision.
- 7:57And,
- 7:57and
- 7:58clearly
- 7:58if
- 7:58you
- 7:58pick
- 7:59the
- 7:59manager
- 7:59who's
- 7:59down
- 7:5925,
- 8:00who's
- 8:00gated
- 8:00you
- 8:00in,
- 8:01who's
- 8:01written
- 8:01down
- 8:01assets
- 8:02and
- 8:02being
- 8:02in
- 8:02the
- 8:02paper.
- 8:03Probably
- 8:03ain't
- 8:03so
- 8:04happy.
- 8:05Yeah,
- 8:05I
- 8:06think
- 8:06that's
- 8:06perfect,
- 8:07Chris,
- 8:07because
- 8:08my
- 8:08next
- 8:08thought
- 8:09was,
- 8:09you
- 8:09know,
- 8:09is
- 8:09this
- 8:10more
- 8:10of
- 8:10a
- 8:10systematic
- 8:11issue
- 8:12where
- 8:12just,
- 8:12and
- 8:12you
- 8:13brought
- 8:13it
- 8:13up
- 8:13earlier,
- 8:14you
- 8:14know,
- 8:14tech,
- 8:15you
- 8:15know,
- 8:15ai,
- 8:16it's
- 8:16gonna
- 8:17disrupt
- 8:17the
- 8:17tech
- 8:17space.
- 8:18And
- 8:18we've
- 8:18seen
- 8:19the
- 8:19software
- 8:19companies
- 8:20that
- 8:20was
- 8:21recent,
- 8:22um,
- 8:23you
- 8:23know,
- 8:23that
- 8:23caused
- 8:23some
- 8:23distress
- 8:24within
- 8:25private
- 8:25credit.
- 8:27Part
- 8:27of
- 8:27me
- 8:27thinks,
- 8:27you
- 8:27know,
- 8:28it's
- 8:28not
- 8:28systematic.
- 8:29It's
- 8:29more
- 8:30concentrated
- 8:31and
- 8:31then
- 8:31also,
- 8:32like
- 8:32you
- 8:32said,
- 8:32there's
- 8:32a
- 8:33misalignment
- 8:34between
- 8:35the
- 8:36offering
- 8:36and
- 8:37who's
- 8:37investing
- 8:38in
- 8:38it.
- 8:38I
- 8:38think
- 8:38that's
- 8:39starting
- 8:39to
- 8:39show
- 8:40too.
- 8:40Do
- 8:40you
- 8:40think
- 8:40it's
- 8:41just
- 8:41more
- 8:41concentrated
- 8:42to
- 8:43certain
- 8:43areas
- 8:44of
- 8:44private
- 8:44credit
- 8:45and
- 8:45not
- 8:45really
- 8:46systematic?
- 8:47Yeah,
- 8:47I
- 8:47don't
- 8:47think
- 8:48it's
- 8:48systematic.
- 8:48In
- 8:48fact,
- 8:49the,
- 8:49the
- 8:49one.
- 8:50I
- 8:50will
- 8:50answer
- 8:51an
- 8:51additional
- 8:52question,
- 8:52which
- 8:52you,
- 8:52you
- 8:52haven't
- 8:53asked
- 8:53is,
- 8:54is
- 8:54how
- 8:54much
- 8:54is
- 8:55this?
- 8:55Like
- 8:552008?
- 8:56And
- 8:56that's
- 8:57where
- 8:57I
- 8:57really
- 8:57get
- 8:57frustrated
- 8:58because
- 8:58the,
- 8:59you
- 8:59know,
- 8:59if
- 8:59you
- 9:00look
- 9:00at
- 9:00what
- 9:00the,
- 9:01the,
- 9:01if
- 9:01you
- 9:01wanna
- 9:01call
- 9:01it,
- 9:01the
- 9:02threat
- 9:02from
- 9:02AI
- 9:03to
- 9:03some
- 9:03of
- 9:03these
- 9:04companies
- 9:04is,
- 9:05it's
- 9:05not
- 9:06that
- 9:06they
- 9:06won't
- 9:06be
- 9:07going
- 9:07concerns
- 9:07anymore.
- 9:08They
- 9:08may
- 9:08be
- 9:08less
- 9:09profitable.
- 9:09We've
- 9:09already
- 9:10seen
- 9:10layoffs
- 9:10and,
- 9:10and
- 9:11those
- 9:11have
- 9:11been
- 9:11happening
- 9:11for
- 9:12a
- 9:12year,
- 9:12oh,
- 9:12well
- 9:12over
- 9:12a
- 9:13year
- 9:13now.
- 9:14Um,
- 9:14it's
- 9:14that
- 9:15they
- 9:15might
- 9:15have
- 9:15not
- 9:15have
- 9:16the
- 9:16sort
- 9:16of
- 9:17rentier
- 9:18level
- 9:18margins
- 9:19that
- 9:19they
- 9:19enjoyed
- 9:20in
- 9:20the
- 9:20past,
- 9:21but
- 9:21it's
- 9:21probably
- 9:21not
- 9:21that
- 9:22they're
- 9:22going
- 9:22to
- 9:22cease
- 9:23to
- 9:23exist
- 9:23as
- 9:23a
- 9:23going
- 9:24concern.
- 9:24Contrast
- 9:25that
- 9:25with
- 9:252008,
- 9:26where
- 9:27you
- 9:27had
- 9:27structures
- 9:28that
- 9:28were
- 9:28built
- 9:28on
- 9:29faulty
- 9:29assumptions,
- 9:31and
- 9:31when
- 9:31the
- 9:31bottom
- 9:32started
- 9:32caving,
- 9:33it
- 9:33brought
- 9:33down
- 9:33the
- 9:33rest
- 9:34of
- 9:34the
- 9:34house
- 9:34of
- 9:34cards.
- 9:35I
- 9:35don't
- 9:35see
- 9:36a
- 9:36lot
- 9:36of
- 9:36similarity.
- 9:37To
- 9:38what's
- 9:38gone
- 9:38on
- 9:38in
- 9:39the
- 9:39private
- 9:39credit
- 9:39market.
- 9:40But
- 9:40you
- 9:40know,
- 9:41again,
- 9:41that's
- 9:41not
- 9:42to
- 9:42dismiss
- 9:43the
- 9:43fact
- 9:43that
- 9:43we
- 9:43are
- 9:43probably
- 9:44in
- 9:44the
- 9:44late
- 9:44stages
- 9:45of
- 9:45a
- 9:45credit
- 9:45cycle.
- 9:46Yeah,
- 9:47yeah.
- 9:48What
- 9:48does
- 9:48that,
- 9:49I'm
- 9:49glad
- 9:49you
- 9:49brought
- 9:49that
- 9:50up.
- 9:50The,
- 9:51why
- 9:52does
- 9:52that
- 9:52impact
- 9:52it
- 9:53then?
- 9:53That
- 9:53late
- 9:53stage
- 9:54of
- 9:54the
- 9:54credit?
- 9:54Can
- 9:54you
- 9:54go
- 9:55into
- 9:55a
- 9:55little
- 9:55bit
- 9:55more
- 9:55detail
- 9:56there?
- 9:56Yeah.
- 9:57I
- 9:57mean,
- 9:58in
- 9:58the
- 9:58same
- 9:58way
- 9:58that
- 10:00many
- 10:00of
- 10:01us
- 10:01are
- 10:01behaviorally
- 10:02tempted
- 10:02to
- 10:02reach
- 10:03for
- 10:03returns.
- 10:05Credit
- 10:05managers
- 10:06do
- 10:06the
- 10:06same
- 10:06thing,
- 10:07right?
- 10:07I
- 10:07mean,
- 10:07spreads
- 10:08get
- 10:08tighter
- 10:08and
- 10:08tighter.
- 10:09I
- 10:09money's
- 10:09coming
- 10:10in,
- 10:10yeah,
- 10:10I
- 10:10gotta
- 10:11put
- 10:11it
- 10:11to
- 10:11work
- 10:11somewhere.
- 10:12And
- 10:12so
- 10:13you
- 10:13start
- 10:13stretching
- 10:14for
- 10:14that
- 10:15extra
- 10:15little
- 10:15bit
- 10:16of
- 10:16yield
- 10:16and
- 10:17that
- 10:17yield
- 10:17comes
- 10:17at
- 10:18progressively
- 10:18less
- 10:18compensation
- 10:20for
- 10:20the
- 10:20risk
- 10:20that
- 10:21you're
- 10:21underwriting.
- 10:22That's
- 10:22late
- 10:22stage
- 10:23credit
- 10:23cycle
- 10:24behavior.
- 10:25Interesting.
- 10:26I
- 10:26love
- 10:26that.
- 10:26Thank
- 10:26you.
- 10:27Great,
- 10:28great
- 10:28insight
- 10:29there.
- 10:30So
- 10:30then
- 10:31I
- 10:31brought
- 10:31it
- 10:31up
- 10:31a
- 10:32little,
- 10:32you
- 10:32know,
- 10:32that
- 10:33misalignment,
- 10:34you
- 10:34know,
- 10:34for
- 10:34the
- 10:34past
- 10:35year,
- 10:35even
- 10:35before
- 10:36that,
- 10:36it's
- 10:36like
- 10:37private
- 10:38credit
- 10:38that,
- 10:38or
- 10:39just
- 10:39alternative.
- 10:39Private
- 10:40managers
- 10:40are
- 10:41really
- 10:41trying
- 10:42so
- 10:42hard
- 10:42to
- 10:42get
- 10:42into
- 10:43the
- 10:43retail
- 10:43space.
- 10:44Private
- 10:44wealth,
- 10:45same
- 10:45time,
- 10:45private
- 10:46wealth.
- 10:47They
- 10:47really
- 10:48want
- 10:48to
- 10:48get
- 10:48in
- 10:48and
- 10:49bring
- 10:49it,
- 10:49get
- 10:49exposure
- 10:50to
- 10:50private
- 10:51markets.
- 10:52Both
- 10:52want
- 10:52each
- 10:53other.
- 10:54Right?
- 10:54But
- 10:54do
- 10:54you
- 10:54think.
- 10:56Maybe
- 10:56we
- 10:56should
- 10:56have
- 10:57taken
- 10:57a
- 10:57step
- 10:57back
- 10:58and
- 10:58like
- 10:58really
- 10:59thought
- 10:59about
- 10:59this
- 11:00because
- 11:01now
- 11:01all
- 11:01of
- 11:01a
- 11:01sudden
- 11:02those
- 11:02retail
- 11:03investors
- 11:04at
- 11:04private
- 11:04wealth,
- 11:05like
- 11:05you
- 11:05said,
- 11:07they
- 11:07weren't
- 11:07in
- 11:07the
- 11:07investment
- 11:08very
- 11:08long
- 11:08and
- 11:08now
- 11:09all
- 11:09of
- 11:09a
- 11:09sudden
- 11:09they
- 11:09want
- 11:09money
- 11:10out
- 11:10where
- 11:11they
- 11:11just
- 11:11misalignment
- 11:12there.
- 11:13They
- 11:13didn't
- 11:13really
- 11:14understand
- 11:15the
- 11:15investment
- 11:16that
- 11:16they're
- 11:16getting
- 11:16into,
- 11:17and
- 11:17that's
- 11:17kind
- 11:17of
- 11:18the,
- 11:18the
- 11:18bigger
- 11:19issue
- 11:19here.
- 11:21It
- 11:21is
- 11:21possible.
- 11:22Um,
- 11:23you
- 11:23know,
- 11:24I,
- 11:24I
- 11:25certainly
- 11:25didn't
- 11:25come
- 11:25on
- 11:26here
- 11:26to
- 11:26point
- 11:26fingers
- 11:26Ryan,
- 11:27but
- 11:27I,
- 11:27I
- 11:27do
- 11:27think
- 11:27that,
- 11:28uh,
- 11:29do
- 11:29it,
- 11:29there,
- 11:29there
- 11:30is
- 11:30a
- 11:30little
- 11:30bit
- 11:30of
- 11:30shiny
- 11:31new
- 11:31toy
- 11:32and,
- 11:33you
- 11:33know,
- 11:33you,
- 11:33you
- 11:33either
- 11:34somewhere
- 11:35between
- 11:35shiny
- 11:35new
- 11:36toy
- 11:36and
- 11:36fomo,
- 11:37oh,
- 11:37you
- 11:37know,
- 11:37my
- 11:37buddy,
- 11:38his
- 11:38advisor
- 11:38or
- 11:39put
- 11:39him
- 11:39into
- 11:40private
- 11:40credit.
- 11:41Um,
- 11:42and
- 11:42there
- 11:42may
- 11:42be
- 11:43some,
- 11:44you
- 11:44know.
- 11:45There
- 11:45may
- 11:45be
- 11:45some
- 11:45excitement
- 11:46around
- 11:46it
- 11:47that
- 11:47isn't
- 11:47matched
- 11:47by
- 11:47the
- 11:48due
- 11:48diligence
- 11:48that's
- 11:48gone
- 11:49into
- 11:49considering
- 11:50whether
- 11:50it's
- 11:50a
- 11:50fit.
- 11:51I
- 11:51mean,
- 11:51uh,
- 11:52there
- 11:53are
- 11:53plenty
- 11:53of
- 11:53institutions
- 11:54who
- 11:54can
- 11:54underwrite
- 11:56the
- 11:57illiquidity,
- 11:58the
- 11:58hidden
- 11:59volatility,
- 12:00the
- 12:01ability
- 12:01to
- 12:01put
- 12:01capital
- 12:02to
- 12:02work
- 12:03on
- 12:03a
- 12:03called
- 12:03basis,
- 12:04right?
- 12:04You're
- 12:04committing
- 12:05to
- 12:05if,
- 12:05if
- 12:05you're
- 12:05an
- 12:05institutional
- 12:06investor,
- 12:07you
- 12:07commit
- 12:07to
- 12:07put
- 12:07capital.
- 12:08To
- 12:08work
- 12:09when
- 12:09the
- 12:09private
- 12:10credit
- 12:10sponsor
- 12:11asks
- 12:11for
- 12:11it.
- 12:12That's
- 12:12not
- 12:13really
- 12:13easy
- 12:13for
- 12:14an
- 12:14individual
- 12:14investor
- 12:15to
- 12:15do.
- 12:16And
- 12:16I
- 12:16think
- 12:16some
- 12:17of
- 12:17what
- 12:17we've
- 12:17seen,
- 12:18the
- 12:18enthusiasm
- 12:19to
- 12:19get
- 12:19into
- 12:20it
- 12:20perhaps
- 12:21wasn't
- 12:21paired
- 12:21with
- 12:22enough
- 12:22due
- 12:22diligence.
- 12:22Yes,
- 12:22it's
- 12:23a
- 12:23great
- 12:23product.
- 12:23I
- 12:24often
- 12:24say
- 12:25it's
- 12:25a
- 12:25great
- 12:26product
- 12:27for
- 12:27the
- 12:27right
- 12:27portfolio,
- 12:28but
- 12:28at
- 12:28the
- 12:28same
- 12:29time,
- 12:29it
- 12:29can
- 12:30be
- 12:30a
- 12:30terrible
- 12:30product
- 12:31for
- 12:31the
- 12:31wrong
- 12:31portfolio.
- 12:32Mm-hmm.
- 12:33And
- 12:33if
- 12:33you
- 12:33don't
- 12:33understand
- 12:34that,
- 12:34and
- 12:34the
- 12:34financial
- 12:35advisor
- 12:35job
- 12:36is
- 12:36really
- 12:36hard.
- 12:37All
- 12:37the
- 12:37new
- 12:37products
- 12:38out
- 12:38there
- 12:38and
- 12:39the
- 12:39demands
- 12:39on
- 12:40them,
- 12:40you
- 12:41know,
- 12:41but,
- 12:41you
- 12:41know,
- 12:42continue
- 12:42to
- 12:42educate,
- 12:43make
- 12:43sure
- 12:43that
- 12:43those
- 12:44product
- 12:44aligns
- 12:45with
- 12:46what,
- 12:46uh,
- 12:46what
- 12:47the
- 12:47investor
- 12:47needs.
- 12:48Why,
- 12:49let's
- 12:50compare
- 12:50it
- 12:50to
- 12:50public
- 12:51credit.
- 12:52Why
- 12:53is
- 12:53private
- 12:53credit
- 12:54a
- 12:54good
- 12:54alternative
- 12:55for
- 12:55public
- 12:55credit?
- 12:55And
- 12:55let's
- 12:56assume
- 12:56it's
- 12:56for
- 12:56the
- 12:56right
- 12:57investor.
- 12:57Mm-hmm.
- 12:58Why
- 12:58is
- 12:58it
- 12:58a
- 12:58good
- 12:58alternative
- 12:59to
- 12:59your
- 13:00traditional
- 13:01ag
- 13:01or
- 13:02public
- 13:02credit?
- 13:04So
- 13:04there's,
- 13:04there's
- 13:04a
- 13:04couple
- 13:05of
- 13:05things
- 13:05it
- 13:05offers
- 13:06you.
- 13:06Yeah.
- 13:06Um,
- 13:08one
- 13:08of
- 13:08which
- 13:09is
- 13:10the
- 13:10private
- 13:10nature
- 13:11of
- 13:11it
- 13:12doesn't
- 13:12have
- 13:12as
- 13:13much
- 13:13public
- 13:14scrutiny.
- 13:14That's
- 13:15number
- 13:15one.
- 13:15Number
- 13:16two,
- 13:17floating
- 13:18rate
- 13:18issuance.
- 13:19So
- 13:20if,
- 13:20if
- 13:20you
- 13:20say,
- 13:20I,
- 13:20I
- 13:21really
- 13:21like
- 13:21credit,
- 13:22but
- 13:22I'm
- 13:22a
- 13:22little
- 13:22bit
- 13:22concerned
- 13:23about
- 13:23interest
- 13:23rates
- 13:24going
- 13:24up,
- 13:24private
- 13:25credit
- 13:25might
- 13:25be
- 13:25a
- 13:25good
- 13:25fit
- 13:26for
- 13:26your
- 13:26portfolio.
- 13:26You
- 13:26can
- 13:27immunize
- 13:27some
- 13:27of
- 13:27that
- 13:27interest
- 13:28rate
- 13:28risk.
- 13:29Um,
- 13:30the,
- 13:31the
- 13:31what
- 13:31those
- 13:32net
- 13:32out
- 13:32to
- 13:33over
- 13:33time
- 13:34has
- 13:34historically
- 13:35been.
- 13:36A
- 13:36higher
- 13:37return
- 13:37than
- 13:38investment
- 13:38grade
- 13:39or
- 13:39high
- 13:39yield
- 13:39credit,
- 13:40we
- 13:40say,
- 13:41okay,
- 13:41that's
- 13:41great.
- 13:41Mm-hmm.
- 13:42Um,
- 13:43and
- 13:43the
- 13:43other
- 13:43thing
- 13:44that,
- 13:44that,
- 13:44which
- 13:44I
- 13:44do
- 13:45believe,
- 13:45uh,
- 13:45investors
- 13:46have
- 13:46been
- 13:46sold
- 13:47a
- 13:47bill
- 13:47of
- 13:47goods
- 13:47on,
- 13:48is
- 13:49the
- 13:49lack
- 13:50of
- 13:50volatility
- 13:51where
- 13:51the
- 13:51high
- 13:52yield
- 13:52market
- 13:52has
- 13:52undergone
- 13:53stress.
- 13:54Private
- 13:55credit
- 13:55has
- 13:55really
- 13:55taken
- 13:55it
- 13:56on
- 13:56the
- 13:56chin.
- 13:56We
- 13:56don't
- 13:56have
- 13:56decades
- 13:57worth
- 13:57of
- 13:57history
- 13:58here
- 13:58the
- 13:58way
- 13:58we
- 13:58do
- 13:58in
- 13:58some
- 13:58others.
- 13:59But
- 13:59if
- 13:59you
- 13:59go
- 13:59back
- 13:59to
- 14:002020.
- 14:01Um,
- 14:02I
- 14:02think
- 14:02the
- 14:02high
- 14:02yield
- 14:02market
- 14:02was
- 14:03off
- 14:03mid-teens,
- 14:04private
- 14:04credit
- 14:05was
- 14:05off
- 14:0538%.
- 14:07Okay.
- 14:07So
- 14:08you
- 14:08have
- 14:09this,
- 14:09what
- 14:09people
- 14:10perceive
- 14:10to
- 14:10be
- 14:10a
- 14:10lack
- 14:11of
- 14:11volatility
- 14:11until
- 14:12you
- 14:12have
- 14:12a
- 14:12massive
- 14:13rapid
- 14:14drawdown.
- 14:15That's
- 14:16the
- 14:16trade
- 14:16off
- 14:17of
- 14:17getting
- 14:18these
- 14:18higher
- 14:18returns
- 14:19and,
- 14:20and,
- 14:20and
- 14:20the
- 14:20less
- 14:20interest
- 14:20rate
- 14:20risk.
- 14:21So
- 14:21it's,
- 14:22it's
- 14:22every
- 14:22bit
- 14:22is
- 14:22vol
- 14:23and
- 14:23actually
- 14:23measured
- 14:23volatility
- 14:24in
- 14:24private
- 14:24credit,
- 14:25much
- 14:25higher.
- 14:26Than
- 14:26any
- 14:27other
- 14:27form
- 14:27of
- 14:27public
- 14:28credit.
- 14:28But
- 14:28that's
- 14:29the
- 14:29draw
- 14:29is
- 14:30more
- 14:30return.
- 14:31Yeah.
- 14:31Well,
- 14:32there's
- 14:32no
- 14:32free
- 14:32lunches,
- 14:33Chris.
- 14:34I,
- 14:34I
- 14:34think
- 14:35I
- 14:35learned
- 14:35that
- 14:36early
- 14:36in
- 14:36my
- 14:36career.
- 14:37No
- 14:37free
- 14:37lunches
- 14:38unless
- 14:38you
- 14:38can't
- 14:39just
- 14:39have
- 14:40higher
- 14:40return
- 14:41without
- 14:42a
- 14:42drawback.
- 14:43Right.
- 14:44And
- 14:44Chris,
- 14:44if
- 14:45you
- 14:45tell
- 14:45me
- 14:45I
- 14:45can
- 14:46get
- 14:4610%
- 14:46return
- 14:47with
- 14:48no
- 14:48risk,
- 14:48I
- 14:48would
- 14:49be
- 14:49a
- 14:49little
- 14:50concerned.
- 14:51It'd
- 14:51be
- 14:51a
- 14:51little,
- 14:51I
- 14:51might,
- 14:52uh,
- 14:52be
- 14:52like,
- 14:52uh,
- 14:53Chris,
- 14:53what
- 14:53are
- 14:53you
- 14:53trying
- 14:54to
- 14:54cellmate
- 14:54here?
- 14:55Yeah.
- 14:55Um.
- 14:56So
- 14:57with
- 14:57that
- 14:58being
- 14:58said,
- 14:58are
- 14:58there
- 14:59some
- 14:59other
- 14:59strategies
- 15:00out
- 15:01there?
- 15:01Yes.
- 15:01Private
- 15:01credit,
- 15:02you
- 15:03brought
- 15:03out
- 15:03the
- 15:03benefits
- 15:04and,
- 15:04and
- 15:04what
- 15:04it
- 15:04can
- 15:05bring
- 15:05to
- 15:05a
- 15:05portfolio.
- 15:07Are
- 15:07there
- 15:07other
- 15:07strategies
- 15:08that
- 15:08might
- 15:08provide
- 15:09some
- 15:10similar
- 15:10benefits
- 15:11that
- 15:11private
- 15:12credit
- 15:13without
- 15:13that
- 15:13risk,
- 15:14maybe
- 15:14without
- 15:14that
- 15:15volatility
- 15:16such
- 15:16as
- 15:16liquidity
- 15:17risk
- 15:18that
- 15:18maybe
- 15:19investors
- 15:20can,
- 15:20um,
- 15:21invest
- 15:21in
- 15:22that
- 15:22like
- 15:22said
- 15:22doesn't
- 15:23have
- 15:23the
- 15:23liquidity
- 15:24risk.
- 15:26So
- 15:26in
- 15:26terms
- 15:27of
- 15:28the,
- 15:29within
- 15:29the
- 15:29alternatives
- 15:30bucket,
- 15:30and
- 15:31I'm,
- 15:31I'm
- 15:31a
- 15:31big
- 15:31fan
- 15:31of,
- 15:32of
- 15:32ensuring
- 15:32that
- 15:32I
- 15:33use
- 15:33the
- 15:33plural
- 15:34alternatives,
- 15:35not
- 15:35alternative.
- 15:36Because
- 15:36as,
- 15:37as
- 15:37an,
- 15:37as
- 15:37advisors
- 15:38go
- 15:38from
- 15:39traditional
- 15:4060
- 15:4040
- 15:41to,
- 15:42you
- 15:42know,
- 15:4255,
- 15:4235,
- 15:4310,
- 15:44you
- 15:45know,
- 15:4550,
- 15:4530,
- 15:4520,
- 15:46um,
- 15:47you,
- 15:48you,
- 15:48you,
- 15:48you
- 15:48gotta
- 15:48have,
- 15:49it's
- 15:49inexcusable
- 15:50to
- 15:50not
- 15:50have
- 15:50multiple
- 15:51assets
- 15:51within
- 15:52that
- 15:52alternatives
- 15:53component
- 15:54and.
- 15:55While,
- 15:55while
- 15:55I
- 15:55do
- 15:55think
- 15:56private
- 15:56credit
- 15:56fits
- 15:57in
- 15:57there,
- 15:57I
- 15:57think
- 15:57there
- 15:58are
- 15:58plenty
- 15:58of
- 15:58other
- 15:59liquidy
- 16:00accessible,
- 16:02perhaps
- 16:03even
- 16:03more
- 16:03pedestrian
- 16:03things
- 16:04that
- 16:04go
- 16:04in
- 16:04there.
- 16:04Like
- 16:04a
- 16:04managed
- 16:05future
- 16:05strategy.
- 16:06That's
- 16:06a
- 16:06good
- 16:06fit.
- 16:07Right?
- 16:07It
- 16:07doesn't,
- 16:07I
- 16:07mean,
- 16:07just
- 16:08even
- 16:09setting
- 16:09aside
- 16:09what
- 16:09we
- 16:10are
- 16:10doing
- 16:10at
- 16:10simplify,
- 16:11managed
- 16:12futures
- 16:12generally
- 16:13exhibit
- 16:13low
- 16:14correlation
- 16:15with
- 16:15stocks
- 16:16and
- 16:16bonds.
- 16:17They're
- 16:17zigging
- 16:17when
- 16:18you're.
- 16:19You
- 16:19know,
- 16:1960
- 16:1940
- 16:19zagging,
- 16:21um,
- 16:22currency
- 16:22strategies.
- 16:23We've
- 16:23recently
- 16:23been
- 16:23pushed
- 16:24into
- 16:24the
- 16:24currency
- 16:24space
- 16:25with
- 16:25a
- 16:26strategy
- 16:26that
- 16:26is,
- 16:26is
- 16:27done
- 16:27phenomenally
- 16:28well,
- 16:28all
- 16:28systematically
- 16:29managed.
- 16:30Um,
- 16:30not
- 16:31only
- 16:32has
- 16:32it
- 16:32produced
- 16:33fantastic
- 16:34absolute
- 16:35returns,
- 16:36it's
- 16:37diversified,
- 16:38the
- 16:39very
- 16:39low
- 16:39correlations,
- 16:40almost
- 16:40actually
- 16:41negative
- 16:41correlations
- 16:42between
- 16:42stocks
- 16:43and
- 16:43with
- 16:44stocks
- 16:44and
- 16:44bonds.
- 16:45And
- 16:46critically
- 16:47it
- 16:47is.
- 16:48Uh,
- 16:48lowly
- 16:49correlated
- 16:50with
- 16:50other
- 16:50alternatives.
- 16:52So
- 16:52that's
- 16:52kind
- 16:53of
- 16:53what
- 16:53you
- 16:53want
- 16:53in
- 16:53a
- 16:53portfolio.
- 16:54Like
- 16:54things,
- 16:55things
- 16:55that
- 16:55have
- 16:55a
- 16:55positive
- 16:55return
- 16:57but
- 16:57don't
- 16:58behave
- 16:58like
- 16:58other
- 16:59stuff
- 16:59in
- 16:59the
- 16:59portfolio.
- 16:59That's
- 17:00a
- 17:00very
- 17:00valuable
- 17:00property.
- 17:01So
- 17:01I
- 17:01think
- 17:02those
- 17:02are
- 17:02in,
- 17:03again,
- 17:03both
- 17:03of
- 17:03those
- 17:04things.
- 17:05Very
- 17:05liquid.
- 17:06Um,
- 17:06easy
- 17:06to
- 17:07access.
- 17:07Yeah,
- 17:08I
- 17:08love
- 17:09those
- 17:09examples.
- 17:09I
- 17:09think
- 17:10they're
- 17:10great.
- 17:11Um,
- 17:12alternative,
- 17:13I
- 17:13wouldn't
- 17:13even
- 17:13say
- 17:13alternatives
- 17:14to
- 17:14private
- 17:14credit,
- 17:15but
- 17:15just
- 17:15something
- 17:15else
- 17:16to
- 17:16consider
- 17:16for
- 17:16that
- 17:17alternative
- 17:17sleeve
- 17:18that
- 17:18you
- 17:18talked
- 17:18about
- 17:19that
- 17:20provides
- 17:20liquidity,
- 17:21which
- 17:22you
- 17:23know,
- 17:23is
- 17:23very
- 17:23important
- 17:23to
- 17:24a
- 17:24lot
- 17:24of
- 17:24people.
- 17:25Yeah.
- 17:25One
- 17:25more,
- 17:26I
- 17:26might,
- 17:26I'm
- 17:26sorry
- 17:26to
- 17:26interrupt
- 17:27you.
- 17:27No,
- 17:27go
- 17:27ahead,
- 17:27Ryan.
- 17:27Um,
- 17:28one
- 17:28more
- 17:28that
- 17:28I
- 17:29might
- 17:29add,
- 17:29like
- 17:29if,
- 17:29if
- 17:29you
- 17:30like,
- 17:30if
- 17:30you
- 17:31like
- 17:31credit.
- 17:31Um,
- 17:32and
- 17:32you
- 17:32think
- 17:33private
- 17:33credit
- 17:34is
- 17:34maybe
- 17:34not
- 17:34the
- 17:34space
- 17:34for
- 17:34you,
- 17:35for
- 17:35whatever
- 17:35reason.
- 17:35Portfolio
- 17:36fit,
- 17:36valuation,
- 17:37concern,
- 17:37fundamentals,
- 17:38um,
- 17:40like
- 17:41get
- 17:41into
- 17:41high
- 17:41yield,
- 17:42but
- 17:42with
- 17:42a
- 17:42credit
- 17:43hedge.
- 17:43I
- 17:43mean,
- 17:43we
- 17:43do
- 17:43this,
- 17:44um,
- 17:44one
- 17:44of
- 17:44our
- 17:45portfolio,
- 17:45our,
- 17:45our
- 17:46high
- 17:46yield
- 17:46portfolio
- 17:47is
- 17:47built
- 17:48with
- 17:50benchmark,
- 17:51like
- 17:51high
- 17:51yield
- 17:52exposure,
- 17:53but
- 17:53then
- 17:53we
- 17:53put
- 17:54a
- 17:54credit
- 17:54hedge
- 17:54on
- 17:54top
- 17:55of
- 17:55that.
- 17:55So
- 17:55if
- 17:55you,
- 17:55if
- 17:55you
- 17:56think
- 17:56I'm
- 17:56gonna
- 17:56wanna
- 17:56be
- 17:56in
- 17:57this
- 17:57at
- 17:57some
- 17:57point,
- 17:58don't
- 17:58bother
- 17:58market
- 17:58timing
- 17:59it.
- 17:59Yeah,
- 18:00that's
- 18:00hard
- 18:00to
- 18:01do.
- 18:01Um,
- 18:02you
- 18:02know,
- 18:02but
- 18:02if
- 18:02you
- 18:02get
- 18:03into
- 18:03something
- 18:03where
- 18:03you
- 18:03have
- 18:04a
- 18:04structural
- 18:05page
- 18:06that
- 18:06should
- 18:06cushion
- 18:07the
- 18:07exposure
- 18:08in
- 18:08the
- 18:08event
- 18:08of
- 18:08a
- 18:08drawdown
- 18:09and
- 18:10adds
- 18:10to
- 18:10your
- 18:11return
- 18:11over
- 18:11the
- 18:12course
- 18:12of
- 18:12time.
- 18:12'cause
- 18:12it's
- 18:12not
- 18:13a
- 18:13direct
- 18:13page,
- 18:13it's
- 18:13an
- 18:14indirect
- 18:14page.
- 18:14Mm-hmm.
- 18:15Um,
- 18:15that
- 18:15should
- 18:16be
- 18:16very
- 18:16valuable
- 18:16as
- 18:17well.
- 18:17Yeah.
- 18:17Fantastic.
- 18:18Chris.
- 18:19Lastly,
- 18:20whether
- 18:21it
- 18:21is
- 18:21through
- 18:22managed
- 18:22futures
- 18:23or
- 18:23private
- 18:23credit
- 18:24or
- 18:24you
- 18:24know,
- 18:25some
- 18:25currency
- 18:25product.
- 18:27What
- 18:27should
- 18:27be
- 18:27the
- 18:27primary
- 18:28considerations
- 18:29that
- 18:29financial
- 18:30advisors
- 18:30should
- 18:31consider
- 18:31when,
- 18:32you
- 18:32know,
- 18:32incorporating
- 18:33these
- 18:33products?
- 18:33Obviously
- 18:34alignment,
- 18:35but
- 18:35is
- 18:35there
- 18:35anything
- 18:36else
- 18:36that
- 18:36they
- 18:36should
- 18:37think
- 18:37about?
- 18:38And
- 18:39it
- 18:39really
- 18:39could
- 18:39be
- 18:40any
- 18:40alternative.
- 18:41I
- 18:41mean,
- 18:41there's
- 18:42so
- 18:42many
- 18:42different
- 18:42alternatives
- 18:43out
- 18:43there,
- 18:43but
- 18:44Yeah.
- 18:45Uh,
- 18:45to
- 18:45me
- 18:45it's,
- 18:46um,
- 18:47peel,
- 18:47peel
- 18:47back
- 18:48the
- 18:48label,
- 18:49like
- 18:49the,
- 18:49you
- 18:49know,
- 18:50label
- 18:50does
- 18:50not
- 18:50equate
- 18:51to
- 18:51risk.
- 18:52Hmm.
- 18:53Uh,
- 18:53understand
- 18:55what
- 18:55risks
- 18:55you
- 18:55are
- 18:56underwriting
- 18:56and
- 18:56make
- 18:57sure
- 18:57that
- 18:57those
- 18:57are
- 18:57intentional.
- 18:58For
- 18:58example,
- 18:59um,
- 19:00you
- 19:00know,
- 19:01this
- 19:01is
- 19:01a
- 19:02silly
- 19:02one,
- 19:03but
- 19:03we
- 19:04use
- 19:04a
- 19:04lot
- 19:04of
- 19:04total
- 19:04return
- 19:05swaps.
- 19:05We
- 19:05tend
- 19:06to
- 19:06be
- 19:06derivatives
- 19:06intensive.
- 19:08Um,
- 19:09a
- 19:09total
- 19:09return
- 19:09swap
- 19:09entails
- 19:10some
- 19:10counterparty
- 19:11risk.
- 19:12Like
- 19:12it's
- 19:13a
- 19:13little
- 19:13foolish.
- 19:13It's
- 19:14quite
- 19:14rich
- 19:14of
- 19:14me
- 19:14to
- 19:14ask
- 19:15my
- 19:15investors
- 19:15to
- 19:16get
- 19:16paid
- 19:16for
- 19:17underwriting
- 19:17counterparty
- 19:18risk.
- 19:18Like
- 19:18we
- 19:18should
- 19:18have
- 19:18that
- 19:18part
- 19:19down
- 19:19pat.
- 19:20Mm-hmm.
- 19:20So
- 19:21understand
- 19:21what.
- 19:22What
- 19:22exposures
- 19:23you're
- 19:23getting.
- 19:24Make
- 19:24sure
- 19:24you're
- 19:25getting
- 19:25paid
- 19:25for
- 19:25them
- 19:26and
- 19:26that's
- 19:26before,
- 19:27you
- 19:27know,
- 19:27that's
- 19:28either
- 19:28before
- 19:29or
- 19:29after
- 19:29you
- 19:29get
- 19:29to
- 19:30the
- 19:30issues.
- 19:30You
- 19:30mentioned
- 19:30a
- 19:30fit
- 19:31within
- 19:31a
- 19:31portfolio.
- 19:32Yeah.
- 19:33Chris,
- 19:34fantastic.
- 19:36Love
- 19:36the
- 19:36conversation.
- 19:37Really
- 19:37timely,
- 19:38important
- 19:39conversation
- 19:40too.
- 19:40Like
- 19:40I,
- 19:40I
- 19:41agree
- 19:41that
- 19:42yes,
- 19:43there's
- 19:43some
- 19:44issues
- 19:44out
- 19:45there
- 19:45and
- 19:45some
- 19:45of
- 19:45the,
- 19:45it
- 19:45is
- 19:46warranted
- 19:46with
- 19:46private
- 19:47credit,
- 19:47but.
- 19:48Is
- 19:48it
- 19:48a
- 19:48full
- 19:49blown
- 19:49on
- 19:49crisis?
- 19:50Probably
- 19:50not.
- 19:51Like
- 19:51the
- 19:51headlines
- 19:51say,
- 19:52um,
- 19:53pick
- 19:53and
- 19:53choose.
- 19:54You
- 19:54gotta
- 19:54do
- 19:54your
- 19:54due
- 19:54diligence.
- 19:55Like
- 19:56maybe
- 19:56more,
- 19:57do
- 19:57more
- 19:57due
- 19:57diligence
- 19:58now
- 19:58than
- 19:58before.
- 19:59But,
- 19:59um,
- 20:00fantastic
- 20:00conversation.
- 20:02Thank
- 20:02you
- 20:02so
- 20:02much.
- 20:02Such
- 20:03an
- 20:03honor
- 20:03to
- 20:03have
- 20:03your
- 20:03own.
- 20:03Where
- 20:04can
- 20:04our
- 20:04audience
- 20:04get
- 20:04more
- 20:05information
- 20:06about
- 20:06simplify
- 20:07asset
- 20:07management?
- 20:08You
- 20:08can
- 20:08visit
- 20:08our
- 20:08website,
- 20:09uh,
- 20:10www
- 20:11dot
- 20:11simplify
- 20:12us.
- 20:13Uh,
- 20:13please
- 20:14don't
- 20:14hesitate
- 20:14to
- 20:15reach
- 20:15out.
- 20:15There's
- 20:15an
- 20:15email,
- 20:16there's
- 20:16a
- 20:16phone
- 20:16number
- 20:16on
- 20:16there.
- 20:17We'd
- 20:17be
- 20:17delighted
- 20:17to
- 20:17hear
- 20:18from
- 20:18you.
- 20:18Awesome.
- 20:19Thank
- 20:19you
- 20:19Chris,
- 20:20and
- 20:20thank
- 20:20you
- 20:20everyone
- 20:21for
- 20:21listening
- 20:21to
- 20:22this
- 20:22episode
- 20:22of
- 20:23zephyr's
- 20:23Adjusted
- 20:24for
- 20:24Risk
- 20:24podcast.
- 20:25You
- 20:25can
- 20:25watch
- 20:26all
- 20:26of
- 20:26our
- 20:26other
- 20:26episodes
- 20:27on
- 20:27the
- 20:27Zephyr
- 20:27YouTube
- 20:28channel.
- 20:28Spotify.
- 20:29Please
- 20:29be
- 20:29sure
- 20:30to
- 20:30like,
- 20:30subscribe
- 20:31and
- 20:31give
- 20:31us
- 20:31a
- 20:31follow
- 20:32on
- 20:32LinkedIn.
- 20:33Thank
- 20:33you
- 20:33very
- 20:33much
- 20:33and
- 20:34have
- 20:34a
- 20:34great
- 20:34rest
- 20:34of
- 20:34your
- 20:35week.
- 20:35Thanks
- 20:35everyone.
- 20:36Let's
- 20:36get
- 20:36started.