Latest / Toadstool Sports / Friday BEST BETS | Start Low | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/12/26

Transcript

Friday BEST BETS | Start Low | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/12/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm man, a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chicks, black coffee on the felt man, you look.
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: Like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: this man. But don't you go quiet?
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor, your name, steal me
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: something on somebody for show.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Put the glass down, baby, look at me? No, hold on,
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: hold on, nothing nice now, hold on, hold on and
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: me but it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: Stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 4: Now, what's up bird, Budy, It's Toad back with you.
• 1:31
  Speaker 4: Toadstool Sports, Friday, June twelfth.
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: We went one and all on the show yesterday.
• 1:37
  Speaker 4: I think we kind of got a little bit lucky
• 1:39
  Speaker 4: with that the over in Minnesota Detroit. Minnesota scored zero
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: in the game, So usually is that good when you
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: have an over nine and a half? Is that good
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: when one team scores zero?
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: No?
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: But Detroit got it over themselves with eleven. But that
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: was not looking good, dude. Keeter Montero definitely pitched better
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: than I thought he would. Detroit their bullpen also did
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: better than I expected, obviously, because I thought both pitching
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: staffs were gonna have some issues in that game. It
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: was all very one sided. It was a one nothing
• 2:14
  Speaker 4: game until like the fourth inning. Detroit did put up
• 2:17
  Speaker 4: some runs somewhere around the fifth or so made it
• 2:21
  Speaker 4: look at least possible that the over was gonna happen.
• 2:25
  Speaker 4: Detroit put up some more runs so that it was
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: still not looking good.
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: Like, Detroit was.
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: Winning eight nothing into the bottom of the eighth, and
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: they're the home team, so they're not gonna bat in
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: the ninth inning, right unless Minnesota somehow scores eight runs
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: and then.
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: At that point you're over would hit anyway.
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: But yeah, so Detroit's winning eight nothing, like, they're not
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: gonna bat in the ninth inning.
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: You know, uh, Sea.
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: Need them to score three runs in the bottom of
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: the eighth to get that thing over or so you no,
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: excuse me, You needed them to score two runs in
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: the bottom of the eighth to get that over, and
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: they scored three in the bottom of the eighth and
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: that's how it went over.
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: So it was a little bit lucky.
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man, I'm not seeing things well right now,
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: which is why my card today is gonna be two.
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: Baseball totals. So yeah, enjoy this. I don't think it's
• 3:12
  Speaker 4: gonna go well. And we have no NBA, no NHL tonight.
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: There is some WNBA. I'm not really interested in it again,
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: being really selective with the WNBA.
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: The Cup stuff. I don't even know, man, It's just I.
• 3:26
  Speaker 4: Don't really see great situations coming up in the WNBA
• 3:29
  Speaker 4: that I can grab onto. And then I'll talk about
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: the World Cup. I guess again, I don't. I don't
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: know if I'm ever gonna give out a play in
• 3:38
  Speaker 4: the World Cup because I just don't know enough about it.
• 3:41
  Speaker 4: But I have some slight opinions on it. I mean,
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: I was correct about what happened in both games yesterday.
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: I was right about South Korea. So if you did
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: actually play them in some way, you got that right.
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: But all right, let's go into it.
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: We got none of the sites that I look at
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: have the percentages right now, except that one other site
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: that I had one, you know, those couple of times
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: where I just don't like the layout of that site
• 4:05
  Speaker 4: some like whatever. I'm just gonna talk about how I
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: handicap these games. Will be blind as far as what
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: the market is doing. But whatever, first game up is
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: Miami at Pittsburgh. We have new weekend series starting. I
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: think for every team here. Some teams were off yesterday,
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: some were not. These teams both played yesterday. Miami swept Arizona.
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: Their bullpend game was good yesterday. The pitching overall was
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: way better than I thought it would be in that game.
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: Miami will now start a road trip with momentum in Pittsburgh,
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: so I think Miami.
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: Should show up with focus.
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: That's not a horrible spot for Miami. I don't think
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: it'll be a letdown after that sweep, because everybody kind
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: of wants Pittsburgh, you know, because they're playing a lot
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: better right now. Pittsburgh is coming up a big series
• 4:51
  Speaker 4: against the Dodgers where they did lose two out of three,
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: I think, but they are staying at home here, so
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: not too bad there. I was correct about the Dodgers
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: opinion that I had yesterday. Barely neither starting pitcher did well.
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: I think did I lean over in that game? In
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: my head, I was thinking that game seemed like an
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: over and it did go way over.
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: Anyway.
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: This game here, we gotta look at the bullpen usage.
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: Miami has the better bullpen, but they did use four
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: relief pitchers yesterday. Pittsburgh also did, so you gotta give
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: the bullpen edge to Miami the rank seventh. I arranged
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: this to my whip. Pittsburgh definitely not very good in
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: that department. They're number twenty. Miami offensively is not as
• 5:36
  Speaker 4: good as Pittsburgh their nineteenth, Pittsburgh is fifth. Pittsburgh also
• 5:40
  Speaker 4: hits really well at home, which might be a problem
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: for Sandy Alkandra. I was pitching for the Marlins here.
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: He's been all over the place this season.
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: I'm as I always point out with him, like his
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: cy young stuff, that he used to have his way
• 5:56
  Speaker 4: gone now because he's had.
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: Multiple injuries surgeries.
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: He's pitching okay, though given his limitations. He's got a
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: four point three to three RA one point twenty six whip.
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: He has not been as good on the road though
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: five point six y five road era. He does better
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: in Miami's more pitcher friendly park. Might be a problem
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: going against a good offense here that hits well in
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: their place.
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: So that's not great.
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: But he did pitch well, and both of his starts
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: this month so far at Washington or the Washington even
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: though they were a good offense for.
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: Whatever reason, they're way better on the road.
• 6:31
  Speaker 4: And then he did well again against a decent Tampa
• 6:34
  Speaker 4: Bay offense.
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: So o coontras.
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: He's been good this month two point five to seventy
• 6:39
  Speaker 4: ra this month. Strike out rate has gone up. He's
• 6:42
  Speaker 4: got twelve strikeouts in fourteen innings, only one walk and.
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: Twelve hits allowed. So he has been good.
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: He is in good form right now, at the very
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: least on the course of the season. Though his strike
• 6:52
  Speaker 4: out rate is way way lower than it used to
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: be earlier in his career. His hit rate is still
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: too high above one per inning in his walk rate
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: is okay, that's season wide numbers. There numbers against Pittsburgh.
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: I believe he doesn't do that well against them. He's
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: got seventy four at bats against them. They have a
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: two seventy average, eight to eleven ops seventeen to eleven
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio.
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: That is not great.
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: Uh So Pittsburgh seems to have the upper hand against
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: Alecandra Pittsburgh's bats do. So keep that in mind, and
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh is going to be going with Braxton Ashcraft, who
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: I feel like, still nobody's talking about this guy. And
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: he's the young guy in Pittsburgh's rotation who is doing
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: really really well and you're like still flying under the raidar.
• 7:39
  Speaker 4: He's got a three point two to EIGHTYRA one point
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: eight whip. He's been a little bit worse at home
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: three point three eight ERA, but that's basically right around
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: with his season wide ERA.
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: Is.
• 7:49
  Speaker 4: He did give up six runs last time against Atlanta.
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: It is Atlanta.
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: They're a good offense, although they're not as good at home,
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: and that's where that was. But Ashcraft did also have
• 7:59
  Speaker 4: five strikeouts and no walks in that outing, so he
• 8:02
  Speaker 4: was still in control in that game. It's just he
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: had too many pitches that went over the plate. I
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: guess he gave up too many hits. I'm gonna chalk
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: that up to being more of an outlier. He's been
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: pitching really well and his command numbers have been really
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: good basically throughout the entire season, so I think that's
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: more of an outlier than anything else. It doesn't seem
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: like a trend right now. He's got a low hit rate,
• 8:24
  Speaker 4: low walk rate, high strikeout rate on the season, everything
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: that you want pretty much. He's everything you want in
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: a man against Miami. Miami has not seen.
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: Much of him at all.
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: They only have two hitters I've ever seen him, Hicks
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: and Norby. Norby has a single off him, Hicks has
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: a walk, So they have a one thousand batting average
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: against him. Man No, but I think what we could
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: take away from this is that he's very unfamiliar to Miami.
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: I think that should be an advantage to him. So
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: I think Pittsburgh has the advantage here. That's the way
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: I would lean in this game. I'm a little bit
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: worried about the situation though. Like I said, I think
• 9:00
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh coming off that huge Dodger series, I don't know
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: how exactly they're gonna respond. I mean, yesterday's game was
• 9:07
  Speaker 4: fairly close. It was a competitive game. But pitching wise,
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: I think it would be first five innings Pittsburgh for
• 9:15
  Speaker 4: me here because they don't have a bullpen advantage here.
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: And of course this website needs to refresh all the time.
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: Let me see, Well, we don't see any of the
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: percentages yet, but at least what you could see is
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: like where the different books have this number, it looks
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: like the the lean in the like Vegas Sharper books
• 9:35
  Speaker 4: is actually more towards Miami here though, because Pittsburgh's favored
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: around minus one forty something. But the public online books
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: have Pittsburgh as a higher favorite than the Vegas Sharper books,
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: So the Vegas sharp lean actually is kind of indicating
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: towards Miami here.
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: I don't know about that and what I From.
• 9:57
  Speaker 4: What I could tell, it looked like there might have
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: been some play on the under in the this game
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: as well. Totals at eight and a half, I could
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: see the argument for it, but ol Condra could definitely
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: hurt you there in soaka Pittsburgh's bullpen. I mean, I
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: think if you do go first, if you do go under,
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: probably first five innings makes more sense. And hope that
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: all contre just remains in form, but I think Pittsburgh
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: first five might be the way to look at that game,
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: although you may have to lay a run line with
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: that or something. You'll need him to actually be winning,
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: which is definitely possible.
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: Thomas, what's up? Man? I thanks for hanging out.
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: My analysis on the World Cup is extremely limited, Dirty Sock,
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: what's up?
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: Thanks for hanging out. Yes, the Canes won yesterday.
• 10:39
  Speaker 4: Garrett, what's up? Thanks for hanging out, everybody, all right,
• 10:44
  Speaker 4: Seattle at Washington. This is an interesting series, I guess.
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: And when I first looked at this pitching matchup, I'm like, yeah, like,
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: this pitching matchup clearly favorites Seattle here, and I do
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: believe that.
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: I agree. I lean Seattle in this game.
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: But when you dig into the numbers, it's not maybe
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: as lopsided as you might think. Washington did not play yesterday.
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: But they're returning home from the West Coast, and you
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: know how I always talk about that is a problem
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: returning home across country especially, it can just add to
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: those distractions. Like just generally returning home from a road trip,
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: teams could get distracted, they have to get back to
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: family life, whatever, but returning across the country and readjusting
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: to the time zone could be difficult to the Seattle
• 11:29
  Speaker 4: I believe.
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: No, Seattle's not changing time zones. My mistake.
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: Seattle's in the middle of a road trip and they
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: were just in Baltimore. But they played yesterday, So Seattle's
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: at a rest disadvantage because they played yesterday. But they're
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: only traveling from Baltimore to Washington here, so basically they're
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: just driving up the Highway, so Seattle is in a
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: much better travel spot here. So I would say that's
• 11:52
  Speaker 4: a situational edge for Seattle. Even though they did play yesterday.
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: They lost to Baltimore, which might kind of spark them
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: coming into this game because that's kind of annoying.
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: If you lose to Baltimore, they're not great. So I
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: do like Seattle.
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: I think Seattle the situation does set up for them
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: decently here. Seattle used two guys out of their bullpen yesterday,
• 12:12
  Speaker 4: but some of their better relievers are available here. They
• 12:14
  Speaker 4: do have a couple of guys in their bullpen on
• 12:16
  Speaker 4: the DL right now, though I keep calling it the
• 12:19
  Speaker 4: DL whatever. Washington's bullpen is rested, but their bullpen stinks.
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: Seattle's is the better bullpen. They're number fifteen.
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: Washington is number twenty four.
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: Seattle's better than what that would suggest to like number fifteen.
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: Their era is at least a lot better than that.
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: Hitting wise, Washington is the better team.
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: They're number four.
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: Seattle is tied in fourteenth with Colorado and Saint Louis.
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: Bryce Miller is pitching for Seattle here. He's been good
• 12:50
  Speaker 4: so far. He started the season late due to an injury,
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: but he's been really good one point three to three RA,
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: point seven to eight whip.
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: He's been a little bit worse on the road.
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: But that's partially because he has a zero homie RA
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: right now two point two road ray.
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: Oh that's bad now.
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: I pitched really well last time out on the road
• 13:08
  Speaker 4: against Detroit E six inning, one hit, shutout Detroit with
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: nine strikeouts, two walks. I know Detroit's offense has been struggling,
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: but Miller's been good this whole time.
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: So far, since he came back.
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: In mid May, he's allowed no more than two urn
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: runs in any outing. He's gone at least five innings
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: in every outing, hit rate well below one per inning,
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: low walk rate, high strikeout rate. Everything looks good here.
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: He's faced some good offenses. Soon he had to pitch
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: in the A's stadium. He faced the White Sox, shut
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: them out, one hit them through five innings. Houston was
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: his first opponent, so he hasn't really headed that easy
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: and he's done well. So I think he could go
• 13:47
  Speaker 4: up against Washington here. Washington has never faced him before,
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: so that should be an extra advantage to him.
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: So again, when you have these young.
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: Talented pitchers, and they haven't been seen before by the
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: opposing offense.
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: The offense could struggle to figure them out.
• 14:01
  Speaker 4: So I like how Miller sets up there, and I
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: do not like Zach Lttel, who's on the other side
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: pitching for Washington. He's not good, but he's been pitching
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: better for about a month now, so I don't necessarily
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: know if you really want to fade him. He's got
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: a four point seven to six ERA one point three
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: to one whip. Not great numbers, obviously, but they're both
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: those numbers are both going down.
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: As it is right now.
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: He is worse at home though, five point one to
• 14:27
  Speaker 4: nine Homie Ray, so he is definitely fatable at home.
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: But he's allowed no more than tour in runs in
• 14:33
  Speaker 4: any outing going all the way back through the beginning
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: of May. So he's been pitching a lot better, although
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: he has faced a lot of weak offenses in here,
• 14:42
  Speaker 4: Miami mets Cleveland, San Diego. He just faced Arizona on
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: the road. They haven't been hitting that well, but they
• 14:49
  Speaker 4: are capable of it, and that was a hitter friendly ballpark.
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: He did pitch well.
• 14:53
  Speaker 4: There, so that's a decent sign for him. So again
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: I don't know if we necessarily want to fade him here.
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: He's got a strikeout rate very low on the season,
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: but his other numbers have gotten better even Actually, his
• 15:05
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate's gone up recently too, even though it's still
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: pretty low. But his hit rate has gone down recently.
• 15:10
  Speaker 4: It was way too high early in the season. It
• 15:12
  Speaker 4: is still too high on the course of the season, though.
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: He allows too many home runs, so that's kind of
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: a problem, but that also went way down over the
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: last month, and his walk number has been fairly low
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: throughout the whole season.
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: He doesn't usually walk people. He's usually way too hit able.
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: So I don't know.
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: I have no idea what we're gonna get out of
• 15:32
  Speaker 4: Latel here in this game. But he does have good
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: numbers against the opponent here, which is Seattle. They have
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: thirty eight bats against him, and he's actually dominated them.
• 15:40
  Speaker 4: He's allowed no extra base hits, eleven strikeouts, one walk,
• 15:44
  Speaker 4: one thirty three average two ninety five ohps. So Lattel
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: is in pretty good form right now, and he has
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: dominant numbers somehow against Seattle. So I don't think I
• 15:54
  Speaker 4: really want to fade Latel here. I think if you're
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: gonna play this game. I think maybe a first five
• 15:59
  Speaker 4: undermake some sense here. Both starting pitchers might actually do
• 16:03
  Speaker 4: well here, Banking on the tell might still be dangerous.
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: Oh look we have the market numbers are coming in
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: here now.
• 16:09
  Speaker 4: Yeah, money is actually hitting the over now in that
• 16:12
  Speaker 4: Miami Pittsburgh game, by the way, for what that's worth,
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: and it is hitting Pittsburgh. So I did agree with
• 16:17
  Speaker 4: that part of it with the Pittsburgh side.
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: So do with that info what you want.
• 16:22
  Speaker 4: And then in this game that we're talking about here
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: now where am I looking, The money is on the
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: over here in this one, which if you're gonna go over,
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: you gotta go full game with it. We have fifty
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: seven percent of tickets on the under, ninety three percent
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: of the cash on the.
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: Over totals nine for the full games.
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: The odds makers are telling you they think it will
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: be a higher scoring game here. I don't know, like
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: based on the starting pitching, it does not look like
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: it doesn't look like the starting pitching are gonna like.
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: It doesn't look like the starting pitching is gonna be
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: bad here. So I don't know if I agree with that,
• 16:57
  Speaker 4: but first five under might make some sense, especially when
• 16:59
  Speaker 4: you have a higher total here, just in the amount
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: of value that it brings. Maybe, Although again, when the
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: oddsmakers put up a high total, they're usually signaling to
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: you that they think it's gonna be a higher scoring games.
• 17:11
  Speaker 4: You don't want to just say, oh, I'm gonna go
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: under because it's a high total. Usually you actually want
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: to do the opposite, do the opposite. I'm not gonna
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: play that drop right now, though, Seattle is getting the money.
• 17:21
  Speaker 4: Seventy seven percent of tickets, eighty six percent of the
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: cash on them minus one forty something is the price
• 17:27
  Speaker 4: on them. I agree with the Seattle side here as well.
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: That would be a full game play, I would say.
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: I think they do still have the starting pitching edge here.
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: They have a situational advantage in my opinion, despite the
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: not being rested, and they still have a bullpen edge
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: in my opinion despite that. So I do agree with
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: Seattle in that game as well, And maybe that is
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: still the better way to play it than trying to
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: mess with the total. Maybe Seattle is the best way
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: to look at that game. Zach, what's up? Thanks for
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: hanging out. Yeah, the Royals, Uh, yeah, they're not good
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: and neither are my Boston Red Sox San Diego at Baltimore.
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: Baltimore played yesterday. They have won two games in a row.
• 18:08
  Speaker 4: Now they just beat Seattle in that series. Maybe that'll
• 18:11
  Speaker 4: give momentum. They have a rest disadvantage though, because San
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: Diego did not play yesterday. San Diego had to travel though,
• 18:18
  Speaker 4: so they're traveling across country here, but they are rested.
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: And as I always talk about, when a West Coast
• 18:23
  Speaker 4: team goes east, that's an easier transition to make them
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: for an East Coast team going west, because that playing
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: really late on your biological clock fucks you up. Whereas
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: if you're a West Coast team and you're gonna play Eastier,
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: playing like a four pm game your time, that's.
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: A lot easier to do.
• 18:38
  Speaker 4: I mean, these guys play after noon games pretty often,
• 18:42
  Speaker 4: and a lot of times you're, yeah, you're just ready
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: to go, you know what I mean, You have energy
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: at that point in the day depending on what you're doing.
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: So so I don't think that's a huge problem for
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: San Diego. San Diego has the better bullpen we do have.
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: Let me see, Baltimore did use some relief pitchers yesterday.
• 18:57
  Speaker 4: They used four so that gives San Diego a bigger
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: bullpen edge, and they needed some rests because they use
• 19:03
  Speaker 4: the bullpen quite a bit in their last series. San Diego,
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: they're number four in bullpen here, one of the best
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: bullpen eras as well. Baltimore not a very good bullpen
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: number seventeen, and their ERA is pretty bad even for
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: being ranked there. San Diego offensively has been awful, though
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: they're ranked dead last thirtieth. Baltimore has been the better offense.
• 19:25
  Speaker 4: They are number eleven. Griffin Canning is getting the start
• 19:30
  Speaker 4: for San Diego, which may not be a good thing.
• 19:33
  Speaker 4: I mean, he sucks six point three four ERA, one
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: point four.
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: To seven whip. That's not good.
• 19:39
  Speaker 4: He's been really bad on the road twelve point one
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: five Roady Ray. So he pitches better in this very
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: pitch of friendly park of San Diego's, but you go take.
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: Him on the road.
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: Yeah, you can't take this guy anywhere, man, he's gonna
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: embarrass you. And Baltimore is a little bit more of
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: a hitter friendly park too. Canning was good in his
• 19:59
  Speaker 4: last but it was against the Mets, so and it
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: was at home, So can you really take that much
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: away from that? That was like the best possible pitching
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: matchup probably for him.
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: I don't know about his.
• 20:10
  Speaker 4: Matchup numbers, but again, the Mets have been an awful
• 20:12
  Speaker 4: offense this year, and pitching in San Diego that was
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: good for him. But his overall numbers are pretty bad.
• 20:18
  Speaker 4: His hit rate is fine, walk rate is definitely too high.
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: Strike out rate is also actually fine. So really it's
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: actually the walk rate that's the problem here. But you
• 20:27
  Speaker 4: just can't do it, man. You can't walk as many
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: people as he is and keep getting away with it.
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: So I don't really trust Canning.
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: I don't like him, but he does have good numbers
• 20:35
  Speaker 4: against Baltimore or no, Susie, he does not have good
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: numbers against Baltimore. So yeah, I definitely don't trust him
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: for some reason. I'm trying to remember, like going over
• 20:43
  Speaker 4: all this this morning, he's got forty at bats against
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: Baltimore six one strikeout, walk ratio three twenty five average
• 20:49
  Speaker 4: allowed to them nine to sixty six ops. Yeah, grifven
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: Canning does not do well against Baltimore, So if you
• 20:56
  Speaker 4: want to fade him, you definitely can. Shane Boss has
• 20:59
  Speaker 4: pitch for Baltimore. He's not great. Four point zero nine
• 21:03
  Speaker 4: ERA one point three to eight WHIP. He's been bad
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: at home four point five to five home ERA. That's
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: not great. Pitched ok in is a two outings so
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: far this month against Boston and Toronto, though, both those
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: games on the road and both of those games against
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: offenses that are not doing well. But he did pitch
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: well the prior to outings as well against Tampa Bay.
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: He was actually all right against Washington the game before
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: that too, So he's gone five starts in a row
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: where he's allowed three or few earn runs, so that
• 21:30
  Speaker 4: is good, although his walk rate has remained too high,
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: so that's kind of an issue. He's got a decent
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: hit rate here, but his walk rate on the season
• 21:39
  Speaker 4: is way too high. Like I said, his strikeout rate
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: is not terrific. Usually he does strike out I think
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: more guys than what he's doing this year. But he's
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: in better form right now, so you gotta at least
• 21:50
  Speaker 4: give him that, and he should be able to pitch
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: okay against a really weak San Diego offense. His numbers
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: against him are all right in twenty at bats, one strikeout,
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: two walks. That's not great, but two fifty batting average
• 22:03
  Speaker 4: six eighteen ops. So Boz actually does match up better here,
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: and he's in decent form. I don't really buy Canning's
• 22:11
  Speaker 4: one good outing against the Mets. Baltimore's definitely unrested, though,
• 22:17
  Speaker 4: you know, I mean, San Diego does have the rest
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: advantage here. I think you could look at Baltimore first
• 22:22
  Speaker 4: five here, though, I think you get isolate the starting
• 22:24
  Speaker 4: pitching matchup, and maybe that's how you go with this game.
• 22:29
  Speaker 4: I mean, grivid Canning really really fatable here. I mean,
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: there are definitely some arguments I would say towards an
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: over here, because you could make the argument maybe both
• 22:39
  Speaker 4: starting pitchers could have some struggles here. One of the
• 22:42
  Speaker 4: bullpens is bad Baltimore's, so there are probably more components
• 22:46
  Speaker 4: for an over than an under here. Money looks like
• 22:48
  Speaker 4: it is indicating towards the over. The total is high
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: as well, at nine, so the oddsmakers are kind of
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: telling you that. But I think Baltimore first five makes
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: sense here. Seventy percent of tickets, eighty seven percent of
• 22:59
  Speaker 4: the cash on Baltimore. They're around minus one forty something
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: at the big online books, although again the Vegas books
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: have a little bit of a lean towards San Diego
• 23:11
  Speaker 4: or I don't know if it's really maybe just because
• 23:12
  Speaker 4: the Vegas books don't juice the favorite as much like
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: a lot of times the more public books just always
• 23:18
  Speaker 4: juice the favorite more basically because they are just anticipating
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: the public betting more on the favorite, because that's kind
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: of what they do, you know, So there is some
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: of that factoring into that as well. Yeah, I don't
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: have a whole lot else to say about that, but
• 23:33
  Speaker 4: Baltimore first five might make some sense, so you may
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: have to go with a run line on that one too.
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: They'll need them to be winning after five, so I
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: don't know.
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: Next game up, excuse me, is Detroit Cleveland. And actually
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: hold on because I wanted to see where this ranked.
• 23:50
  Speaker 4: I have Action Network, one of their like paid tools.
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: You can kind of see some of the market reads here,
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: although I don't like the way that they track these
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: books necessarily, but hold on. I wanted to see. Yeah,
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: all right, I'm gonna leave this one. I'm gonna leave
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: this game alone. But I was this game was one
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: of the ones that I was considering. I was considering
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: an under in this game of some kind here. But
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: I think I'm gonna leave it alone, especially because yeah,
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: I mean, do I really want to trust Jack Flaherty
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: Probably not. Cleveland was off yesterday, they got swept by
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: the Yankees.
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: Prior to that, they've lost four in a row. They're
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: staying at home.
• 24:28
  Speaker 4: Could be a good, good time to have a day
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: off for Cleveland there, you know, break that losing momentum.
• 24:33
  Speaker 4: They have a rest advantage here because Detroit played yesterday.
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: As we know. They got us that win with the over.
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: Yesterday, scoring eleven runs by themselves against Minnesota's god awful pitching.
• 24:46
  Speaker 4: Detroit is traveling now, starting a road trip, but starting
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: a road trip with momentum is kind of a positive
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: spot too. It's a divisional series. Detroit probably has something
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: to say about Cleveland, you know, still being ahead of
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: them in the division, even beating them in the division
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: last year. And I think Cleveland advanced passed them in
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: the playoffs two if I remember correctly, So Detroit, Cleveland
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: might be one of those teams that Detroit will get
• 25:11
  Speaker 4: up for, you know what I mean. And Detroit is
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: at least starting to win games again, and I don't
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: think they are a team that's as bad as their
• 25:18
  Speaker 4: record looks also hilariously by the way, the White Sox
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: are winning the Al Central right now, and I think basically,
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: like a week ago, you could have bet the White
• 25:26
  Speaker 4: Sox five at five to one to win this division.
• 25:31
  Speaker 4: It probably still is like two to one for them
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: to win this division. The oddsbeakers still don't think they're
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: going to but maybe there is some value in that
• 25:39
  Speaker 4: they're currently winning the division. I mean, I don't see
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: any of these teams really having a stranglehold on this division.
• 25:46
  Speaker 4: This division is awful, So yeah, do with that info
• 25:50
  Speaker 4: what you want, at least all right, as far as
• 25:52
  Speaker 4: the bullpens are concerned, Detroit did use some guys yesterday.
• 25:56
  Speaker 4: They used only two though, so their bullpend isn't in
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: whole rua bull shape here.
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: Their bullpen is the worst one.
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: Though Cleveland has ranked fourteenth, they're an okay bullpen. Detroit
• 26:06
  Speaker 4: twenty second, not really as good, although they're not awful offensively,
• 26:11
  Speaker 4: neither team has been that good.
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: Detroit is where they at.
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: Detroit's up to seventeenth, though after that offensive eruption yesterday,
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: which may not be legit Cleveland number twenty eight, Cleveland's
• 26:23
  Speaker 4: offense has really been struggling recently, which that's one of
• 26:26
  Speaker 4: the indicators towards maybe looking at an under here is
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: that both offenses really are not that good right now.
• 26:32
  Speaker 4: Even though I know Detroit did score some runs in
• 26:34
  Speaker 4: that Minnesota series, Cleveland is a totally different thing. Though
• 26:38
  Speaker 4: Cleveland's pitching is a lot better than Minnesota's. Cleveland at homes,
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: seems like they're playing a ton of low scoring games.
• 26:44
  Speaker 4: Jack Flaherty, like I said, is pitching for Detroit. He's
• 26:47
  Speaker 4: got bad numbers five point three to one ERA, one
• 26:50
  Speaker 4: point five to eight WHIP. I mean, that's one reason
• 26:53
  Speaker 4: why I don't really think I want to back him.
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: He's been a little bit better on the road though,
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: four point nine to four. Roady Ray, he is pitching
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: better over his last three starts. Basically he's had a
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: higher strikeout rate. He's allowed three or fewer on runs
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: in all three. He's got at least five innings in
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: all three. His team has won his two starts this month,
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: so he is in better form recently. He's got a
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: high strikeout ran on the season, so that's one thing
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: that has been going well for him. But he has
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: a really high walk rate and a really high hit
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: rate too, So I don't know how that's possible. I
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: don't know how you could like strike this many guys
• 27:28
  Speaker 4: out but.
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: Also be too hittable.
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: Usually a strikeout guy's gonna potentially have a lot of walks,
• 27:34
  Speaker 4: but usually they allow very few hits. That's not the
• 27:36
  Speaker 4: case with him, so I don't know what the deal
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: is with that. And he's still allowing too many hits
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: recently too, by the way, so that really hasn't gotten better,
• 27:43
  Speaker 4: but the walk number has been better over the last
• 27:46
  Speaker 4: few starts. Also against Cleveland, I believe he does have
• 27:49
  Speaker 4: good numbers, even though they've seen a lot of him
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: one hundred and eight at bats. Cleveland has not been
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: a team that's been able to do damage against him.
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: Twenty nine strikeouts, eight walks, two thirteen average six forty
• 28:01
  Speaker 4: seven ops. So, like I said, Flaherty actually has a
• 28:04
  Speaker 4: decent matchup here. He's in the better of his home
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: road splits, and he pitches better against this Cleveland offense.
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: Tanner Biby is pitching for Cleveland. He's been alright recently too.
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: His numbers have gotten a lot better. I know. You
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: look at his record, Oh my god, his record is terrible. Yeah,
• 28:21
  Speaker 4: but that's because the team's giving him no run support,
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: whereas last year they were giving him a ton of
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: run support, and his record was way better than this,
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: and he pitched like about the same four point zero
• 28:32
  Speaker 4: nine ERA right now, one point two to three whip,
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: that's not bad. He's been better at home as well,
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: three point seven to four home ERA. Did well last time,
• 28:41
  Speaker 4: shut out Texas for eight innings. That was a good outing.
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: He was good in the start prior to that as well,
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: but it was against the Red Sox. Those two teams
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: are not good offenses though, but Detroit really isn't either.
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: And Biby did have one bad starting here against Washington,
• 28:55
  Speaker 4: but the start before that against Detroit he pitched well.
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: He went eight innings, give up one hour and run,
• 29:01
  Speaker 4: five strikeouts, one walk on four hits, So one walk
• 29:04
  Speaker 4: and four hits a lot.
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: I mean he bitch well against Detroit.
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: Yes, it means Detroit just saw him, but Detroit is
• 29:10
  Speaker 4: already really familiar with him, so I don't think it
• 29:12
  Speaker 4: matters that they just saw him. In late May, and
• 29:16
  Speaker 4: Biby going all the way back into early May, he's
• 29:18
  Speaker 4: only had really one bad start, which was that one
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: against Washington. His hit rate is pretty good on the season.
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is not too bad, but his strikeout
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: rate is low. You'd like to see that be higher
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: from a guy like him, but he's been alright. His
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: home run rate probably needs to be a little bit
• 29:35
  Speaker 4: lower too, but he's been okay. Numbers against Detroit are
• 29:39
  Speaker 4: pretty good. In one hundred and ninety at bats. Like
• 29:41
  Speaker 4: I said, he's faced them a lot. Forty eight strikeouts,
• 29:45
  Speaker 4: sixteen walks, two forty seven average allowed, six ninety five ohps.
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: So those numbers are on his side against this Detroit lineup,
• 29:54
  Speaker 4: so he does do well. Let me just make sure
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: did Flowerty play against them when they no?
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: So I was.
• 30:00
  Speaker 4: I just wanted to see a Flaherty pitched in that
• 30:02
  Speaker 4: last series between these two teams. He did not, all right,
• 30:05
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I think an under makes the most sense
• 30:08
  Speaker 4: in this game.
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: Maybe first five.
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: I mean, Detroit's bullpen is not one that necessarily you
• 30:14
  Speaker 4: need to avoid them. I mean a lot of what
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: I was doing in that last year is was kind
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: of avoiding the Minnesota bullpen more than anything else. Although
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: I don't really I don't love the Detroit bullpen, but
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: they only used two guys out of their bullpen. It
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: was they didn't use any of their better relief arms
• 30:31
  Speaker 4: yesterday because they had a blowout win. You know, So
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: the bullpen's set up okay. Here I would not disagree
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: with with a full game under here. I would also
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: not disagree with the first five under in this game.
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: Usually if I agree with one, I probably agree with
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: the other. I just think that one is stronger than
• 30:47
  Speaker 4: the other. The money looks like it does actually agree
• 30:50
  Speaker 4: with this. Sixty three percent of tickets on the over,
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: fifty four percent of the cash on the under.
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, again, I'm gonna agree with it. I think you
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: could go game.
• 31:00
  Speaker 4: Like I said, you have at least one rested bullpen here.
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: The rest can also kind of cool off the bats
• 31:07
  Speaker 4: if you want to go first five.
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: That makes sense to me as well.
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: And then maybe the biggest disadvantage that you have here
• 31:12
  Speaker 4: is the Detroit bullpen.
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: But do with that info what you want.
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: The money's also slightly indicating towards Cleveland here, sixty per ticket,
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: sixty two percent of the cash on Cleveland, they're around
• 31:23
  Speaker 4: minus one twenty something or so. Cleveland does have the
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: rest edge, and I'd be more inclined to trust Baby
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: than Flaherty here, and Cleveland's bullpen is the better one too,
• 31:35
  Speaker 4: so I see the argument for Cleveland here as well,
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: but I think it under is my preference in that game.
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: Probably full game, I guess.
• 31:44
  Speaker 4: I mean, whatever this next game up, I do like
• 31:46
  Speaker 4: the under in this next game too. Texas and the
• 31:49
  Speaker 4: Red Sox, this game reads as an under game to
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: me too.
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: You got Texas. They do score more on the.
• 31:56
  Speaker 4: Road, though the Red Sox are pretty bad at scoring
• 31:59
  Speaker 4: at home, so those things kind of negate each other.
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: But neither of these teams score a whole lot, and
• 32:04
  Speaker 4: they're both much better at pitching than hitting.
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: So this series might have some Uh.
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: There might be some situations to play an under in
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: this series, and this might really be one of them.
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: Both teams were off, were in no way? Texas played yesterday? Right, yeah? Sorry?
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: Texas played in Kansas City yesterday and they won.
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: So Texas is traveling from Kansas City. The Red Sox
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: were off, but they're returning home from going to New
• 32:29
  Speaker 4: York and Tampa and they had a bad, bad road
• 32:33
  Speaker 4: trip there. But again, when a team returns home from
• 32:36
  Speaker 4: the road, I think it's usually a negative regardless you
• 32:39
  Speaker 4: got to get back to home life, You got stuff
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: to do, so I think it's a negative spot for
• 32:42
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox, but those distractions could definitely affect the hitting,
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: so I don't really see the Red Sox being able
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: to hit too well in this game. Texas used three
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: relief pitchers yesterday, so the Red Sox probably have a
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: little bit of a bullpen advantage here. Both bullpens are
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: good Texas number three, Red Sox, number five Red Sox
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: have the rested bullpen, though neither offense has been good
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: Texas twenty one, Boston twenty six. So, like I said,
• 33:08
  Speaker 4: a lot of indicators towards a lower scoring game here.
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: Texas is going with Jack Lighter. He's got mediocre numbers
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: here at best four point six to ninety RA one
• 33:19
  Speaker 4: point three to seven Whip don't love that, and he's
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: not as good on the road four point five point
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: twenty nine road ERA, so when you take him away
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: from Texas's pitcher friendly stadium, he doesn't do as well.
• 33:30
  Speaker 4: He wasn't good in his last outing against Cleveland, so
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: that's kind of a concern. Walked more guys than he
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: struck out, He allowed five runs.
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: That was at home.
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: Where you expect him to pitch better, and Cleveland's offense
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: is not that good, so that's kind of a red
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: flag that he didn't pitch well there.
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: Overall, he's got a high strikeout rate.
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: His hit rate is good, just his walk rate is
• 33:50
  Speaker 4: kind of enormous, so well, not really enormous, but it's
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: too high, so he does walk too many guys.
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: Against the Red Sox, he has.
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: Been good though, in kind of a small sample of
• 34:01
  Speaker 4: twenty at bats two hundred average, five eighty three oh ps,
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: but three strikeouts, four walks, so that's not great, but
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: the rest of these numbers are good. The only extra
• 34:10
  Speaker 4: base hit that they have against him is a double
• 34:12
  Speaker 4: from Rafaela, so do with that invo what you want,
• 34:15
  Speaker 4: But it looks like Lighter might have a decent matchup here.
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: At the very least.
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: Sonny Gray is pitching for the Red Sox. He's been
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: pretty solid, although he's pretty old now. He doesn't have
• 34:25
  Speaker 4: stuff that's gonna like blow anybody away, and he'll occasionally
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: have starts or he just gets absolutely bombed, but usually
• 34:32
  Speaker 4: he's pretty capable. He's got a three point two ERA
• 34:35
  Speaker 4: one point two to four whip and even with the
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: Red Sox horrible offense backing him, He's still seven and one.
• 34:41
  Speaker 4: He's been better at home two point five to two Homira,
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: so he's in the better of his home road split's here.
• 34:46
  Speaker 4: Hasn't allowed more than three or runs in any start
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: going all the way back into April. He's got a
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: low strikeout rate, but his a hit rate is fairly low,
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: his walk rates fairly low.
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: Or actually no excuse.
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is higher than I thought because he
• 34:59
  Speaker 4: has own that many innings. That's kind of an issue.
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: I guess that's why his whip is that high. But whatever.
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: He's been alright though throughout the course of the season.
• 35:09
  Speaker 4: Decent offseason move for the Red Sox to pick him up,
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: and he's going up against Texas, which should be a
• 35:15
  Speaker 4: decent matchup for him.
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: They're not a great offense.
• 35:17
  Speaker 4: He's got eighty two at bats against them and he's
• 35:19
  Speaker 4: held them to a one to ninety five average, four
• 35:22
  Speaker 4: to eighty two oh ps, twenty six to six strikeout
• 35:25
  Speaker 4: walk ratio. So I do like the under in this
• 35:27
  Speaker 4: game as well. I think this would be a full
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: game under. Both bullpends are good, even though I know
• 35:32
  Speaker 4: Texas used a few guys yesterday we only see fifty
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: We see fifty nine percent of tickets and only fifty
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: two percent of the cash on the under in this
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: one though, So do with that if what you want.
• 35:42
  Speaker 4: But yeah, I like the under here. That's the way
• 35:45
  Speaker 4: I would go full game. I think makes sense here.
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: Total is eight and a half. Both teams traveling might
• 35:51
  Speaker 4: kind of disrupt their offense as well.
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: Money is also on Texas.
• 35:55
  Speaker 4: For what that's worth, fifty eight percent of tickets are
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: on the Red Sox, seventy five percent of the cash
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: on Texas. To me, that is kind of an indicator
• 36:03
  Speaker 4: towards the under, even though the market is not really
• 36:05
  Speaker 4: indicating on the under. But like I always said, when
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: you see the money supporting the team with the lesser pitcher,
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: that usually indicates to me that it's a play on
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: that pitcher more so than a fade of the other pitchers.
• 36:19
  Speaker 4: So I think that is kind of an indicator towards
• 36:21
  Speaker 4: an under typically, So I do like the under in
• 36:24
  Speaker 4: this one as well. I considered it, but you know,
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: I'm just kind of concerned by Lighter's road numbers. In
• 36:29
  Speaker 4: his recent form, Jack Flaherty the reason why I didn't
• 36:33
  Speaker 4: put that under on my card. Is I just worry
• 36:35
  Speaker 4: about Flaherty in general. So those are my concerns with
• 36:40
  Speaker 4: those two, But I like the unders. If I was
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: gonna add plays, I think it would be those two
• 36:44
  Speaker 4: games under. You'll find out pretty soon that we're very
• 36:48
  Speaker 4: under heavy today in baseball Arizona at Cincinnati, and a
• 36:52
  Speaker 4: lot of times that happens with teams being on travel
• 36:55
  Speaker 4: and whatever, because I think return home can distract the hitting.
• 36:58
  Speaker 4: Having a day off I think can cool hitting off,
• 37:00
  Speaker 4: and it gives the bullpens time to rest. So all
• 37:03
  Speaker 4: that being factored in. These next two games are on
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: Apple TV. Arizona at Cincinnati. Cincinnati was off yesterday, but
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: they are returning home from going to Saint Louis and
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: then San Diego. So Cincinnati is returning home from the
• 37:16
  Speaker 4: Pacific coast here, so they're having to change time zones
• 37:21
  Speaker 4: and not a good spot returning home from the road,
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: so they might be a little bit distracted, have to
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: get back to home life.
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: They're not really a good team.
• 37:28
  Speaker 4: San Diego was also off yesterday and they have to
• 37:31
  Speaker 4: travel or no, wait, not san Diego.
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: What am I talking about Arizona? Excuse me? Arizona did
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: play yesterday, my mistake. Arizona was in.
• 37:38
  Speaker 4: Miami and they got swept. So they're coming into Cincinnati.
• 37:41
  Speaker 4: Maybe Arizona will be a little bit more focused here.
• 37:44
  Speaker 4: They just got shut out two.
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: Games in a row. So Arizona hasn't scored a run
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: since what is that Wednesday? No Tuesday.
• 37:55
  Speaker 4: Yeah, so that's kind of ridiculous. So Arizona could be
• 37:59
  Speaker 4: in a bounce back spot here, but their offense has
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: been struggling recently too. But maybe the spot is a
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: little bit better for Arizona, but they are at a
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: rest disadvantage here. Arizona he used two relief pitchers yesterday.
• 38:14
  Speaker 4: That's not too bad. Of course, Cincinnati was off, but
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati's bullpen is absolutely terrible. Arizona's bullpen is the better one.
• 38:21
  Speaker 4: They're ranked eighth, even though I still don't like their ERA.
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: But Cincinnati's bullpen is a disaster. They're ranked dead last.
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: Although Colorado has the worst ERA, Cincinnati has the worst
• 38:32
  Speaker 4: whip and the second worst ERA.
• 38:34
  Speaker 3: They're terrible.
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: Offensively, Cincinnati has been a little bit better than Arizona.
• 38:38
  Speaker 4: They're eighteenth, Arizona twenty fourth. This is a hitter friendly
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: ballpark though, so there might be some runs here. Odsmakers
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: have put this total pretty high thinking that there will
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: be runs.
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: Arizona's going with e Rod Eduardo Rodriguez.
• 38:53
  Speaker 4: He's actually having a good season, even though he's another
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: guy like a Condra, where he used to be kind
• 38:58
  Speaker 4: of like almost you know, he was like at this
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: like pretty upper echelon level, and now he's nowhere.
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: Near as good because he's a bit older.
• 39:07
  Speaker 4: But he's also gone through multiple injuries and surgeries and whatever.
• 39:11
  Speaker 4: But he is pitching effectively nonetheless right now two point
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: five to two ERA and one point one to eight WHIP.
• 39:17
  Speaker 4: He's still able to do that with his diminished stuff.
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: He's been worse on the road though, three point three
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: eight road ERA.
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: Although that's still not bad.
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: Although Arizona is a hitter friendly park, I'm pretty sure,
• 39:29
  Speaker 4: so I don't know what the deal is with that.
• 39:32
  Speaker 4: But E Rod's been pretty good over his recent strikes.
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: He's been good really through the beginning of May. Looking
• 39:39
  Speaker 4: at what he's done, he's been good. He's allowed no
• 39:41
  Speaker 4: more than three on runs in any of those outings
• 39:43
  Speaker 4: until his most recent one, which was at home against Washington.
• 39:47
  Speaker 4: He allowed four in six and a third innings, but
• 39:49
  Speaker 4: he only had one walk, five strikeouts for excuse six hits.
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: He wasn't bad in that game like that. Overall pitching
• 39:58
  Speaker 4: line is not that bad, and it was against an
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: offense that crushes the ball on the road, so I
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: don't think that was bad for him. So he is
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: pitching fairly well right now. E Rod has a pretty
• 40:09
  Speaker 4: low hit ran on the season. His walk grade is
• 40:11
  Speaker 4: a bit too high, his strikeout rate is definitely low.
• 40:14
  Speaker 4: Like I said, he just doesn't have that type of
• 40:15
  Speaker 4: stuff anymore. But he is pitching well this season so
• 40:19
  Speaker 4: far in recently. Nonetheless, he may be able to pitch
• 40:23
  Speaker 4: well here as well against Cincinnati. His numbers are kind
• 40:26
  Speaker 4: of mediocre against Cincinnati though, in thirty nine at bats
• 40:29
  Speaker 4: thirteen to four strike out walk ratio, two to eighty
• 40:32
  Speaker 4: two batting average allowed in seven O eight ops, so
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: that OPS is at least lower than that seven to
• 40:38
  Speaker 4: fifty threshold. But the batting average he's allowed as kind
• 40:40
  Speaker 4: of high, so they've hit him for contact. I don't
• 40:43
  Speaker 4: know if I really want to fully trust Erod here,
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: but I think I do like Arizona here still with
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati in the return home spot, Arizona, even though they're
• 40:53
  Speaker 4: a little bit unrested here having played yesterday. Nick Lodolo
• 40:57
  Speaker 4: is pitching for the Reds and he was decent for them,
• 41:00
  Speaker 4: you know, last year and whatever. But he is not
• 41:02
  Speaker 4: pitching well so far this year coming back from I
• 41:05
  Speaker 4: think he was dealing with some injuries. I think he
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: had like a blister issue towards the end of the
• 41:10
  Speaker 4: year towards the end of the year last year, and
• 41:13
  Speaker 4: I think he might have he might have had some
• 41:15
  Speaker 4: other injury to him. Not sure, but he's not doing
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: well this season. Five point five one ERA, one point
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: five whip. That's not good. Although based on his career numbers,
• 41:24
  Speaker 4: I do think he is going to improve on these numbers.
• 41:27
  Speaker 4: I think he should be like a mediocre pitcher. We'll
• 41:30
  Speaker 4: see if that does happen. But he's gotten hammered at
• 41:33
  Speaker 4: home so far. Six point seventy five Homie ra that's
• 41:36
  Speaker 4: not a good sign. He was on the road last
• 41:38
  Speaker 4: time against Saint Louis and he kind of got lucky
• 41:41
  Speaker 4: to only allow four runs in that downing because he
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: allowed ten hits in five innings in what is a
• 41:46
  Speaker 4: pitcher friendly ballpark.
• 41:47
  Speaker 3: So that's not a great sign. There.
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: He's had some walks in a lot of his recent
• 41:52
  Speaker 4: outings too, even though he hasn't allowed that many runs
• 41:56
  Speaker 4: in some of these outings. I don't know, man, He's
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: just I don't really trust him right now. He's got
• 42:02
  Speaker 4: a kind of low strike gut rate here. His walk
• 42:04
  Speaker 4: rate is definitely too high, hit rate more than one
• 42:07
  Speaker 4: per inning on the season. None of those numbers are
• 42:09
  Speaker 4: very good, so to me, I can't trust him right now.
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: His numbers against Arizona, though they don't have that much
• 42:15
  Speaker 4: experience against him. They only have five hitters who have
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: faced him twenty one at bats. They only have a
• 42:20
  Speaker 4: one to ninety average against him, but in eight ten
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: ops because three of the four hits against them are
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: home runs.
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: So do with that info what you want.
• 42:29
  Speaker 4: But Lodolo, I mean, yeah, they're not that familiar with him,
• 42:33
  Speaker 4: although he's been around forever. They haven't been able to
• 42:36
  Speaker 4: get them any hits off and when they do connect
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: with him, they send the.
• 42:40
  Speaker 3: Ball out of the yard.
• 42:41
  Speaker 4: These are just some weird numbers here, But yeah, I
• 42:44
  Speaker 4: think generally I like Arizona on this one.
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: That's probably what I'd be looking at.
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: They got the better bullpen too, so Arizona full game
• 42:51
  Speaker 4: makes some sense to me. There should be in kind
• 42:53
  Speaker 4: of a bounce back spot as well. I know that
• 42:56
  Speaker 4: they're at the rest disadvantage. Ever, the money seems like
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: it's agreeing with me. Sixty two percent of tickets, ninety
• 43:01
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on them. The money line is
• 43:07
  Speaker 4: I don't know. For some reason, FD has Arizona as
• 43:10
  Speaker 4: a favorite. That might be a glitch though, because every
• 43:12
  Speaker 4: other book has Cincinnati is like a very small favorite here.
• 43:16
  Speaker 4: It's basically a pick the winner price though, So it's
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: just yeah, it would be Arizona. Money line would be
• 43:21
  Speaker 4: what I would do in that game if I was
• 43:22
  Speaker 4: gonna do anything with it.
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: And Dagger, what's up man? Thanks for hanging out.
• 43:27
  Speaker 4: I did not make large. The weekend went all right,
• 43:32
  Speaker 4: oh oh your open? I Oh, you're hoping I do
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: it this week?
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: I get you.
• 43:35
  Speaker 4: I'm like, wait a minute, what day? What day of
• 43:36
  Speaker 4: the week is it? Yeah, it's Friday, Thank you sir. Yeah,
• 43:38
  Speaker 4: hopefully you and I should actually start betting these games
• 43:42
  Speaker 4: for more money because I've been doing well. Speaking of which,
• 43:45
  Speaker 4: I apologize. I did not put up my record there
• 43:48
  Speaker 4: some as I forget to do that. I apologize we
• 43:51
  Speaker 4: got the one win yesterday. We went one to oh yesterday,
• 43:53
  Speaker 4: So there you go. I'm I'm in a bit of
• 43:56
  Speaker 4: a lull right now. We're kind of treading water here
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: over the last I don't know week plus, but one,
• 44:02
  Speaker 4: fourteen fifty seven and six is the run over the
• 44:05
  Speaker 4: last sixty nine days, which is strong.
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: So there you go with that, Gerald, what's up? I
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: don't know.
• 44:13
  Speaker 4: I mean, you missed me talking about every one of
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: these games, that every one of the baseball games that
• 44:18
  Speaker 4: is previous to the one I just talked about in
• 44:22
  Speaker 4: the schedule, I've talked about all of them. I think
• 44:24
  Speaker 4: my stronger opinions were unders in Detroit, Cleveland and Texas Boston.
• 44:29
  Speaker 4: Probably next game up, speaking of unders, the next Apple
• 44:35
  Speaker 4: TV game. Yeah, this is gonna be one of them.
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: We're gonna go under in Braves mats under eight minus
• 44:48
  Speaker 4: one oh five. I know the Braves do have a
• 44:50
  Speaker 4: tendency to put up more offense on the road here.
• 44:53
  Speaker 4: But I'm gonna hope that Nolan McLain is going to
• 44:56
  Speaker 4: get back into form here after he had a little
• 44:59
  Speaker 4: bit of a lip it started pitching a little bit worse.
• 45:02
  Speaker 4: But I think he's a strong pitcher, and I think
• 45:04
  Speaker 4: he can get us, he can help us here. I
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: like both starting pitchers here. Both teams have good bullpens
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: as well. Atlanta didn't. Atlanta didn't play yesterday even though
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: they were scheduled to play. They had a rain out
• 45:17
  Speaker 4: or whatever at the White Sox, so Atlanta kind of
• 45:21
  Speaker 4: got swept by the Reds. By these the Red Sox,
• 45:24
  Speaker 4: that would have been awesome. No, the White Sox. Atlanta
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: lost both games they actually played against the White Sox.
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: They only lost by one run in each of them, though,
• 45:33
  Speaker 4: so they had a chance to snap that and avoid
• 45:36
  Speaker 4: getting swept, but the rain prevented that. But what that
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: does mean is that Atlanta did not play yesterday, so
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: they're rested, and I think what that might do is
• 45:45
  Speaker 4: cool their offense off a little bit, and it's gonna
• 45:48
  Speaker 4: help their bullpen a little bit. Although their bullpen is
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: already number one in Baseball and both Whip Andy Ray,
• 45:55
  Speaker 4: the Mets are number two in Whip and their era
• 45:58
  Speaker 4: is not that far off either.
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: So we have two really.
• 46:01
  Speaker 4: Good bullpens here, which is why I'm gonna leave them
• 46:03
  Speaker 4: in the equation. Now, the Mets did use some guys yesterday, though,
• 46:06
  Speaker 4: so they did use Devin Williams, who is their closer,
• 46:10
  Speaker 4: and Luke Weaver, but I don't even think they're that good.
• 46:13
  Speaker 4: Williams still has like a five y rara dude, and
• 46:16
  Speaker 4: they're using him as a closer.
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: Like that's what the Yankees were doing last year with him.
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 46:21
  Speaker 4: So I don't really mind that much that he's not
• 46:24
  Speaker 4: available here, or they might use him again because the
• 46:27
  Speaker 4: Mets didn't use any of those guys the previous three days,
• 46:30
  Speaker 4: so the Mets may be able to use some of
• 46:32
  Speaker 4: these guys again today. So I'm okay with keeping the
• 46:34
  Speaker 4: Mets bullpen in this thing. And then we're looking at
• 46:39
  Speaker 4: the hitting. Yes, I know Atlanta is a good offense.
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: They're number three. The Mets are number twenty nine, though,
• 46:45
  Speaker 4: and I am thinking that the starting pitching here and
• 46:48
  Speaker 4: the bullpens can kind of help us in this game.
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: Here.
• 46:51
  Speaker 4: Spencer Strider is pitching for Atlanta. He's been alright, a
• 46:55
  Speaker 4: four ERA one point two eight whip. He's trying to,
• 46:58
  Speaker 4: you know, make this comeback from injury and whatever.
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: I know, he's been a little bit worse on the road.
• 47:03
  Speaker 3: Four point two to one.
• 47:04
  Speaker 4: Roady Ira luckily he's been good at night because every
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: game is a night game tonight, so that helps us.
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: A little bit. Strider. He was okay against Pittsburgh.
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: In his last out, and he's been pitching kind of mediocre,
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: but Atlanta's won most of his games and he's still
• 47:20
  Speaker 4: I think he's still good. He's got a really low
• 47:22
  Speaker 4: hit rate and really high strikeout rate, so that does
• 47:25
  Speaker 4: tell me that his stuff is there, like he's able
• 47:28
  Speaker 4: to strike guys out, it's just that he's a bit wild,
• 47:31
  Speaker 4: so his walk number needs to go down. But he's
• 47:34
  Speaker 4: pretty consistent with allowing like two and three walks in
• 47:37
  Speaker 4: every outing, so the rest of it, you know, the
• 47:39
  Speaker 4: stuff that he has is kind of able to overcome that.
• 47:42
  Speaker 4: But he also does well against the Mets, and I
• 47:45
  Speaker 4: think this is gonna be a good matchup for him
• 47:47
  Speaker 4: because the Mets suck on offense.
• 47:49
  Speaker 3: He's got fifty two at.
• 47:50
  Speaker 4: Bats against them, one seventy three average, allowed, five ninety
• 47:54
  Speaker 4: one ohps, fifteen strikeouts, eight walks. I know it's too
• 47:57
  Speaker 4: many walks, but six of them are one, so so
• 48:00
  Speaker 4: he might be able to just kind of pitch around
• 48:02
  Speaker 4: him or that seems like that is what he does.
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: So I think Strider.
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: Matches up well here, and I like Nolan McLain on
• 48:09
  Speaker 4: the other side. You know, I'm I do you know,
• 48:12
  Speaker 4: I'm a fan. He's got a three point nine to
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: eighty ra one point one to one whip.
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: He's been worse at home.
• 48:18
  Speaker 4: I know, so we have not the greatest of the
• 48:20
  Speaker 4: home road splits here four point four to six homye Ray,
• 48:23
  Speaker 4: but he seems to be coming back into Forum after
• 48:25
  Speaker 4: he had two bad outings against Washington and Cincinnati. He's
• 48:28
  Speaker 4: allowed one run each of his last two outings, but
• 48:32
  Speaker 4: he did have too many walks in both of those,
• 48:35
  Speaker 4: which does worry me. He only allowed one one on run,
• 48:38
  Speaker 4: like I said, but they were against San Diego and
• 48:40
  Speaker 4: Miami and those are not good offenses. So Atlanta is
• 48:43
  Speaker 4: going to be a step up for him. But if
• 48:45
  Speaker 4: you look at what he's done this season, though, he's
• 48:47
  Speaker 4: faced you know, Arizona, I mean, although their offense is
• 48:51
  Speaker 4: kind of falling off. Washington did beat him up, but
• 48:54
  Speaker 4: he's also faced La, the Dodgers, Pittsburgh. He did pretty
• 48:58
  Speaker 4: well in both of those outings, so he's not unfamiliar
• 49:01
  Speaker 4: to some of these better offenses. I mean, the Dodgers
• 49:03
  Speaker 4: are elite, and he went in and pitched really well
• 49:05
  Speaker 4: against them on the road, so he's obviously capable of
• 49:08
  Speaker 4: shutting down a good offense here. Yeah, the walks are
• 49:12
  Speaker 4: a bit concerning.
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: I get that. Overall, though his numbers on the season are.
• 49:16
  Speaker 4: Quite good, He's got a really low hit rate and
• 49:18
  Speaker 4: that remains that way in his recent outing. He's got
• 49:21
  Speaker 4: a high strikeout rate and his walk rate is not
• 49:24
  Speaker 4: even really that bad. Against Atlanta, they haven't really seen
• 49:29
  Speaker 4: that much of him. They only have four guys who
• 49:31
  Speaker 4: have faced him. Twelve at bats, no extra base hits,
• 49:34
  Speaker 4: five strikeouts, one sixty seven average, three thirty three oh ps.
• 49:37
  Speaker 4: So I think McClain can kind of ride this as
• 49:40
  Speaker 4: an advantage a little bit here. He's unfamiliar to Atlanta,
• 49:44
  Speaker 4: so I think he can ride that. So we're gonna
• 49:46
  Speaker 4: go with the under in this one. Man, I don't
• 49:49
  Speaker 4: know what the money is looking like right now. I'm
• 49:51
  Speaker 4: gonna be really pissed if my unders fall short and
• 49:54
  Speaker 4: then the unders that I almost gave out both come
• 49:57
  Speaker 4: through or something.
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: That's gonna really piss me off. Where is this game?
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: I just saw it? What the hell it's on?
• 50:03
  Speaker 4: The nationally bored Yeah, it looks like the over is
• 50:06
  Speaker 4: public even though it is getting some money here seventy
• 50:09
  Speaker 4: six percent of tickets eighty eight percent of the cash
• 50:11
  Speaker 4: on the over. But I don't know, I don't know
• 50:15
  Speaker 4: if there's anything we can really draw from seeing that there.
• 50:18
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna do it. I mean, this is gonna be
• 50:20
  Speaker 4: one play that I'm giving out here. The money's also
• 50:22
  Speaker 4: backing Atlanta here eighty two percent of tickets, ninety three
• 50:26
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on Atlanta.
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: I mean, it makes sense somewhat.
• 50:29
  Speaker 4: Atlanta is rested here, although the Mets are just staying
• 50:32
  Speaker 4: at home, so at least they didn't have to travel.
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 50:37
  Speaker 4: I don't have a whole lot else to say about that,
• 50:40
  Speaker 4: but initially the Mets flipped to a favorite here after
• 50:43
  Speaker 4: Atlanta was the favorite. So the money is on Atlanta
• 50:46
  Speaker 4: even though they're also public. But yeah, Mets are the
• 50:50
  Speaker 4: favorite now. To me, that's the odds maker's kind of
• 50:52
  Speaker 4: telling you something like if the Mets are favored, the
• 50:55
  Speaker 4: odds makers are respecting Nolan McLain here, you know what
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: I mean. They're telling you that he's pretty good and
• 51:00
  Speaker 4: or the Mets are not as bad as their record
• 51:02
  Speaker 4: looks like you'd think that. I mean, that's one reason
• 51:05
  Speaker 4: why I would not really want to be on Atlanta
• 51:06
  Speaker 4: here is it looks way too easy to play them,
• 51:09
  Speaker 4: Like how could Atlanta be an underdog here? You know
• 51:11
  Speaker 4: what I mean against a Mets team that has way
• 51:13
  Speaker 4: worse records. So but under will be the play for
• 51:17
  Speaker 4: me in that one, even though the money doesn't look
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: like it's totally agreeing with that right now, all right,
• 51:23
  Speaker 4: I think we're fading kind of a public sentiment there.
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: The next game up will be my other play, and
• 51:28
  Speaker 4: it's an under in Yankees Toronto. Like I said, it's
• 51:32
  Speaker 4: under heavy today, man under eight Yankees Toronto. These teams
• 51:36
  Speaker 4: both were off yesterday, so I like that, so that
• 51:39
  Speaker 4: means they're gonna have rested bullpens. I think both bullpens
• 51:41
  Speaker 4: are decent enough that we can use them here. So
• 51:45
  Speaker 4: that's why we'll extend it to full game, which, by
• 51:48
  Speaker 4: the way, I would not really disagree with first five
• 51:50
  Speaker 4: and either of these games either. But I'm gonna extend
• 51:53
  Speaker 4: it full game and try to, you know, and hope
• 51:55
  Speaker 4: that we can take advantage of decent and or good
• 51:58
  Speaker 4: bullpens in these two games that were of an out
• 52:00
  Speaker 4: here although I know the Mets used some of their
• 52:02
  Speaker 4: guys yesterday to get the save, but.
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: Devin Williams, you know, I don't.
• 52:06
  Speaker 4: I don't trust him, So do with that invote what
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: you want? What else am I about to say here? Yeah,
• 52:12
  Speaker 4: So both of these teams were also off yesterday, so
• 52:15
  Speaker 4: I think that can kind of affect the hitting a
• 52:16
  Speaker 4: little bit. Toronto is staying at home here. They just
• 52:19
  Speaker 4: played Philadelphia at home. The Yankees are traveling in from Cleveland,
• 52:23
  Speaker 4: and they just swept Cleveland, so the Yankees are traveling
• 52:26
  Speaker 4: up from Cleveland. Still, that's I mean, yeah, just traveling
• 52:29
  Speaker 4: across the lake basically to get or the traveling across two.
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: Lakes to get up there. Whatever.
• 52:37
  Speaker 4: All right, as far as the bullpens, like I said,
• 52:39
  Speaker 4: they're both decent bullpens. The Yankees are number eleven, Toronto's
• 52:43
  Speaker 4: number nine. This is in whipp although Toronto's era is
• 52:45
  Speaker 4: a bit worse than that. But I think we have
• 52:48
  Speaker 4: decent bullpens here. Toronto's offense is not very good twenty third,
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: so we have one week offense here. Yankees obviously not
• 52:56
  Speaker 4: a week offense. They're number two, but the Yankees have
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: not been as good of an offense on the road.
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: Aaron Judge is still not in the lineup, So those
• 53:03
  Speaker 4: are some negatives.
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: I know.
• 53:05
  Speaker 4: I use those as an argument for that last under
• 53:07
  Speaker 4: that we had a play on here on the show
• 53:10
  Speaker 4: against Cleveland, and I know the Yankees wound up putting
• 53:13
  Speaker 4: up some runs, but there were some unearned runs there.
• 53:15
  Speaker 4: Cleveland's fielding was god awful. So hopefully the Yankees will
• 53:19
  Speaker 4: be in check here offensively after having a rest and
• 53:22
  Speaker 4: whatever and having to face a pitcher that tends to
• 53:25
  Speaker 4: do well against them starting pitching. Ryan Weathers is pitching
• 53:29
  Speaker 4: for the Yankees. I think he's a guy that just
• 53:31
  Speaker 4: continues to go under the radar, Like I don't even
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: think the Yankees have a bad starting pitcher in their
• 53:37
  Speaker 4: entire rotation. Weathers is like the last guy in the rotation.
• 53:41
  Speaker 4: Maybe Warren is, but they're both not even bad. Weather's
• 53:44
  Speaker 4: three point eight six ERA one point one to six whip.
• 53:47
  Speaker 4: He's been basically the same home and away. It doesn't
• 53:49
  Speaker 4: really matter. He did just give up five runs to
• 53:52
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox, which doesn't seem great, but he had
• 53:54
  Speaker 4: four strikeouts, one walk, only allowed seven hits and six innings.
• 53:58
  Speaker 4: Got kind of unlucky, so I think he give him
• 54:01
  Speaker 4: a pass for that. And then the previous game he
• 54:04
  Speaker 4: gave up five runs, but it was on three home
• 54:06
  Speaker 4: runs in the A's stadium and yeah, how that goes.
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: So I think he got kind of unlucky in that
• 54:12
  Speaker 4: one too. Now, one concern is that, yes, Toronto did
• 54:15
  Speaker 4: beat him up. In the middle of May, he faced
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: Toronto and he gave up five runs in that outing.
• 54:20
  Speaker 4: But if you look at that outing, I think he
• 54:22
  Speaker 4: got unlucky in that one too. He gave up seven hits,
• 54:25
  Speaker 4: no walks, and had seven strikeouts in five and a third.
• 54:28
  Speaker 3: So his command was still on. It's just in those three.
• 54:31
  Speaker 4: Outings I just talked about, he gave up home runs
• 54:34
  Speaker 4: in all of them. So, yes, his home run number
• 54:36
  Speaker 4: has been an issue recently, but in his other games
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: this season it hasn't really been an issue except for
• 54:43
  Speaker 4: one other game against Anaheim. He's had a low hit
• 54:46
  Speaker 4: rate on the season, pretty low walk rate, high strikeout rate.
• 54:49
  Speaker 4: All these numbers looked pretty good, and you know, I
• 54:53
  Speaker 4: just don't I'm not sure that Toronto's gonna be able
• 54:56
  Speaker 4: to do that amount of damage again. If he pitches
• 55:00
  Speaker 4: basically about the same as he did that other time,
• 55:02
  Speaker 4: I don't I think he might get a little bit
• 55:04
  Speaker 4: less unlucky this time. And that was at Yankee Stadium,
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: which is more hit or friendly than Toronto Stadium is.
• 55:12
  Speaker 4: Overall against Toronto, I believe he actually does have good
• 55:15
  Speaker 4: numbers anyway, thirty two at bats, he's got a two
• 55:19
  Speaker 4: fifty average, seven to ten ops. Not great, but still
• 55:23
  Speaker 4: on the better side of those numbers. There eight strikeouts,
• 55:26
  Speaker 4: one walk, and a lot of those numbers went up
• 55:28
  Speaker 4: just because of that last outing. So I think Weathers
• 55:32
  Speaker 4: can pitch all right here. Uh Trey Is Savage is
• 55:35
  Speaker 4: pitching for Toronto. He's good a three point one six ERA,
• 55:39
  Speaker 4: one point one seven whip. He's been not as good
• 55:42
  Speaker 4: at home, I know, four point five to seven homyra.
• 55:45
  Speaker 4: So we are we don't have the who the home
• 55:47
  Speaker 4: road split helping us out here. But one of those
• 55:50
  Speaker 4: was his last start against Baltimore, and Baltimore had just
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: seen him in the start before that, so maybe that
• 55:56
  Speaker 4: kind of explains that the Baltimore kind of made adjustments
• 55:59
  Speaker 4: to him. You could say the same thing about the Yankees, though,
• 56:02
  Speaker 4: because they just faced him May twentieth, so they might
• 56:04
  Speaker 4: make adjustments. Ever, he dominated them. Six innings shut out
• 56:08
  Speaker 4: against the Yankees. But the thing about this is the
• 56:10
  Speaker 4: Yankees have already seen him besides that game, and he's
• 56:13
  Speaker 4: dominated the Yankees and his other outings against them.
• 56:16
  Speaker 3: Two like, for whatever reason, he.
• 56:18
  Speaker 4: Gets up for the Yankees and he just does well
• 56:21
  Speaker 4: against them, So I think that might continue here. He
• 56:24
  Speaker 4: did do poorly against the Myrelins in the game after
• 56:27
  Speaker 4: that Yankee game, but maybe that was a little bit
• 56:29
  Speaker 4: of a personal letdown spot for him there. But he
• 56:31
  Speaker 4: still didn't have bad strikeout walk numbers in any of
• 56:34
  Speaker 4: those games.
• 56:35
  Speaker 3: So overall, he's got a low hit rate.
• 56:38
  Speaker 4: His walk grade is actually kind of high though from
• 56:40
  Speaker 4: some of his other games really because he walked seven
• 56:43
  Speaker 4: guys in one of the outings against Baltimore. That's skewing
• 56:46
  Speaker 4: that number quite a bit. And his strikeout rate is
• 56:48
  Speaker 4: good against the Yankees. Like I said, he has really
• 56:53
  Speaker 4: good numbers in twenty It's only twenty seven at bats,
• 56:55
  Speaker 4: but it's multiple starts at this point. Eleven strikeouts, no walks,
• 56:59
  Speaker 4: seven four average one eight five ops.
• 57:02
  Speaker 3: So he does well against this Yankee lineup.
• 57:05
  Speaker 4: And yes that is the Yankee lineup, not factoring and
• 57:07
  Speaker 4: Aaron judge, So it is the current lineup that will
• 57:10
  Speaker 4: be out there pretty much, so under is the play
• 57:14
  Speaker 4: in that one of those are my two plays of
• 57:16
  Speaker 4: the day, those two unders. Hopefully we can get it
• 57:19
  Speaker 4: done man with those plays. Hopefully those are the right
• 57:22
  Speaker 4: unders to pick, and not the other two that I
• 57:24
  Speaker 4: mentioned that I somewhat like as well. I chose to
• 57:28
  Speaker 4: kind of go with the ones where I felt we
• 57:30
  Speaker 4: were backing the pitchers that are just generally better. So
• 57:33
  Speaker 4: I don't know that was kind of the deciding factor
• 57:35
  Speaker 4: for me, but I think, you know, the worst pictures
• 57:39
  Speaker 4: that we have here are like what Weather's basically, and
• 57:42
  Speaker 4: I think he's still probably better than lighter and Flaherty
• 57:45
  Speaker 4: over on in the other side there in those other games.
• 57:47
  Speaker 4: So all right, Dodgers at the White Sox. The White
• 57:51
  Speaker 4: Sox had yesterday off because of the rain out, so
• 57:54
  Speaker 4: they're coming off of a shortened two games sweep of Atlanta.
• 57:58
  Speaker 4: But I would not read too much into that because
• 58:01
  Speaker 4: again they could have lost both games. They only won
• 58:04
  Speaker 4: each game by one. Although give them credit, the White
• 58:07
  Speaker 4: Sox are having a pretty good season here. They might
• 58:09
  Speaker 4: make the playoffs, which is insane. Although I think the
• 58:14
  Speaker 4: Ale Center is probably not getting a wild card into
• 58:17
  Speaker 4: the playoffs.
• 58:17
  Speaker 3: They're bad division.
• 58:18
  Speaker 4: Man, excuse me, I'm still getting over this sickness here.
• 58:24
  Speaker 4: I apologize. Man, gotta mute my mic or something here. Anyway, Yeah,
• 58:31
  Speaker 4: I think whoever wins the Ale Central is getting in.
• 58:34
  Speaker 3: I think I said n now I met al.
• 58:35
  Speaker 4: Obviously, whoever wins it gets in, probably they won't have
• 58:38
  Speaker 4: any wildcard get in. Anyway, Dodgers played yesterday, so they're
• 58:42
  Speaker 4: at a little bit of a rest disadvantage.
• 58:44
  Speaker 3: They're coming in from Pittsburgh.
• 58:46
  Speaker 4: They just won the series against Pittsburgh with the win yesterday.
• 58:50
  Speaker 4: But looking at the starting pitching matchup here, I think
• 58:52
  Speaker 4: this is a pretty big edge for the Dodgers here.
• 58:55
  Speaker 4: To be honest, I know the Dodgers they did play yesterday,
• 58:59
  Speaker 4: while White soxs have a rest disadvantage. But like I'm
• 59:01
  Speaker 4: looking at this, all the teams with all the teams
• 59:03
  Speaker 4: with the rest advantage today, or all the teams with
• 59:09
  Speaker 4: the rest disadvantage, excuse me, are going up against teams
• 59:12
  Speaker 4: that have like a travel disadvantage like you have, like
• 59:15
  Speaker 4: a lot of teams that are returning home from road trips,
• 59:17
  Speaker 4: and they're getting matched up against the team that has
• 59:19
  Speaker 4: the rest disadvantage, you know what I mean, Like the
• 59:21
  Speaker 4: schedule makers kind of know what they're doing. Like they
• 59:24
  Speaker 4: give one team a day off for travel. The other
• 59:26
  Speaker 4: team didn't have to travel as far, so they don't
• 59:29
  Speaker 4: get a day off, you know. So that but that
• 59:31
  Speaker 4: kind of negates what we're trying to do here, trying
• 59:33
  Speaker 4: to find a team that has like a huge situational advantage,
• 59:37
  Speaker 4: like the Mets did that other day.
• 59:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the Met It was the Mets, right, yeah against Seattle.
• 59:41
  Speaker 4: Yeah was no, it was a San Diego Mets against
• 59:45
  Speaker 4: San Diego.
• 59:46
  Speaker 3: The other day, that play that I gave out. Whatever
• 59:48
  Speaker 3: I'm rambling.
• 59:49
  Speaker 4: The Dodgers use a lot of relief pitchers yesterday, Man,
• 59:52
  Speaker 4: these five guys out of the bullpen, so that might
• 59:55
  Speaker 4: be a little bit of an issue. And their bullpen's
• 59:57
  Speaker 4: been struggling recently, so that's kind of an give for
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers here. There's still number six and bullpen whip.
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 4: Their eray's gone up, so their bullpen might be a
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 4: little bit of an issue. After they were good for
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 4: most of the seasons so far, they weren't that good
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 4: last year.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 3: White Sox bullpen is mediocre.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 4: I would say at nineteenth, so there's still the lesser bullpen,
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 4: although they're rested, which makes the bullpen advantage here that
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers might have less than it would be otherwise.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 4: So I think the bullpen's are kind of close here.
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 4: White Sox still not really a great bullpen though. Dodgers
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 4: the number one offensively, the White Sox are number six,
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 4: so we have good offenses going at it here. Dodgers
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 4: are going with Roki Sasaki. I think he's figured something
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 4: out man. He's starting to actually pitch really well as
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 4: a starter. He's got his season wide numbers into a
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 4: respectable range here four point h three RA, one point
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 4: two to six WHIP. He's still not good on the
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 4: road though, four point eight to eight Roady Ray. But
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 4: he's in really good form recently. He just had a
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 4: really good outing against Anaheim where two hit seven inning,
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 4: shut out them, ten strikeouts, two walks. He's allowed three
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 4: or fewer earned runs in every outing through the beginning
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 4: of May. He's obviously starting to pitch a lot better here,
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 4: so that's a good sign for him and for the Dodgers.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 4: He's got a high strikeout rate on the season, his
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 4: hit rate is low, his walk rate is too high,
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 4: but that's getting better over those recent starts as well,
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 4: So he is starting to turn into a pretty good
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 4: starter here. Excuse me, and I believe the White Sox
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 4: haven't seen him before. Yeah, so Sasaki has another advantage here,
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 4: the unfamiliarity. As I say, a lot of times when
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 4: a team hasn't seen a guy before, they struggle to
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 4: figure him out early on. So Sasaki has an extra
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 4: advantage here. He'll be going up against Anthony Kay who
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 4: I just don't trust him for the White Sox. He's
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 4: a converter reliever who's thirty one years old. Four point
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 4: four era doesn't look too bad, but a one point
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 4: four or five whip is not that good. I talked
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 4: about him yesterday because he was gonna start yesterday, and
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 4: I guess figured, well, with the rain out, we just
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 4: won't do anything to our rotation.
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 3: We'll just let him pitch today. That might not be
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 3: a good thing, I don't know. So he gets thrown
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 3: to the Wolves.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 4: Well, he wasn't gonna have to face the Braves anyway,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 4: so he's having to face the Dodgers now, So he
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 4: was gonna have to face a good line up either way.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 4: But his whip is bad, so that doesn't look good
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 4: right away. He's been good at home though, three homie
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 4: rays so far, so that's pretty good. Wasn't good in
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 4: his last game against Philadelphia. He was pitching pretty well
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 4: throughout most of the month of May. But I just
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 4: don't buy it, man, I don't. A lot of those
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 4: games were against weak offenses San Diego, Kansas City, Seattle's okay,
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 4: face them twice, Minneso, Okay, Minnesota, Detroit. You know, I'm
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 4: just not impressed by any of this. He's got a
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 4: low strike out rad his walk rate is too high.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 4: His hit rate is actually too high as well. I'm
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 4: not buying what I'm what I'm seeing as far as
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 4: is is Era being mediocre or I think he's worse
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 4: than mediocre. But the Dodgers actually don't have much experience
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 4: against him. They only have four at bats across three hitters.
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 4: Kyle Tucker does have a home run off him. That's
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 4: the only hits. They have a two to fifty average,
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 4: twelve fifth the ops, no strikeouts, no walks. But yeah,
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 4: I think Sasaki is still he has a big edge
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 4: over k Here. I don't know about the bullpen situation.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 4: Dodgers still do have the better bullpenalthough they're not rested
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 4: right now. The Dodgers are actually kind of a reasonable
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 4: price here though, at minus one forty four somewhere in
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 4: that range. Ninety one percent of the tickets public is
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 4: on the Dodgers here, ninety three.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 3: Percent of the cash.
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 4: And yeah, you're usually gonna have to pay too much
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 4: for the Dodgers, but I don't know, man, you might
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 4: be paying a little bit of a lesser price for them.
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 3: With Sasak on the mound because he's still not.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 4: I think he's still a little bit undervalued potentially in
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 4: the market here. So this might be a spot where
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 4: maybe you could play the Dodgers. I mentioned it yesterday.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 4: I kind of like the Dodgers, even though the price
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 4: tag was a little bit high. They got the job done.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 4: They won by two, although the game was somewhat close,
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 4: but they kind of had the upper hand the whole time.
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the Dodgers get it done.
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 4: That's the way I would lean in that game, even
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 4: though Chicago does have the.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 3: Rest advantage there.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 4: All right, the next game up, we're already over an hour,
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 4: got Philadelphia and Milwaukee is the next game up. Milwaukee
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 4: was off yesterday, but they were returning home from the road,
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 4: So I always talk about it when a team returns
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 4: home from the road, they have to get back to
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 4: home life. It could be a distraction. They might still
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 4: show up because Philadelphia is a decent team, but I
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 4: don't know, man, I mean, coming back from the road,
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 4: coming back from going into Colorado and then to Vegas
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 4: to play the A's, I think that was a Vegas series.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure could be a little bit difficult.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 4: I mean, those are weird environments to have to go to,
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 4: kind of weird travel and then coming back from that,
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 4: crossing a couple of time zones, maybe not the greatest
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 4: situation from Milwaukee here. Philadelphia had yesterday off as well,
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 4: and they're coming in from Toronto, so that travel spot
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 4: is actually kind of a little bit better, uh, staying
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 4: kind of within the Great Lakes area there. So I
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 4: think Philadelphia has a travel advantage a situational advantage. However,
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 4: they obviously do not have a starting pitching advantage.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 3: In this game.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 4: They don't have a bullpen advantage either. Milwaukee has the
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 4: better bullpen. Both bullpens are alright. Philadelphia at thirteen Milwaukee
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 4: twelve in WHIP, but Milwaukee's ERA.
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 3: Is considerably better. Offensively, Milwaukee has started hitting a lot better.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 3: They're at eighth now.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 4: Phillies still haven't really turned that around. They're at twenty seventh,
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 4: so Milwaukee has started to hit better.
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 3: Andrew Payner is pitching for the Phillies.
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 4: He has not had a good rookie season here man
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 4: six point two one ERA, one point five to seven WHIP.
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 4: So even though he's going out there and he's unfamiliar
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 4: to opposing hitters, it still doesn't matter. He's not pitching well.
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 4: Six point six' Five Roady. Ray that's ugly. Stuff he
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 4: got blasted in his last start against The White, sox
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 4: wasn't good in the previous start either against The. DODGERS
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 4: i know those are good, offenses But milwaukee is not
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 4: really that much.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 3: Of a reprieve from. That he's been way too. Hittable
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 3: he's allowed way more than one hit per.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 4: Inning his walk rate's not too, bad and his strikeout
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 4: rates not really that, high so he's not.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 3: Really fooling Hitters.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 4: MILWAUKEE i don't think he's ever faced, him let me say,
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 4: correct so he does have the unfamiliarity edge if he
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 4: has one at.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 3: All BUT i don't think that's.
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 4: ENOUGH i don't Think painter is gonna do well, here
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 4: so that would be my read on. That and he
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 4: has to go up Against Jacob, mizzierowski so Maybe painter
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 4: will get excited for that, opportunity like he's gonna go
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 4: out there and be, like oh, SHIT i have to
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 4: like pitch well, here you know WHAT i, mean to
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 4: try to match up against this, guy Because mizzierowski is
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 4: one of the best pitchers in, baseball even though this
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 4: is only his second season in the majors and his
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 4: first full. ONE i believe one point five yr point
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 4: eight one whip he might be the cy young front
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 4: runner here man Because skeens has been, good but not this.
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 3: Good.
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 4: Uh mizierowski's still really good home and, away even those
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 4: home ME r rates a little bit. Higher and now
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 4: whopping one point nine to. One he just went Into
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 4: Coors field and just Shredded. Colorado he's allowed one earned
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 4: run total since the beginning Of, may, so, uh you,
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 4: know move, Over Christopher. SANCHEZ i guess these are the
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 4: two hottest pitchers in, baseball AND i mean that they're sexy. Obviously,
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 4: Uh mizierowski has an extremely high strikeout, RATE i think
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 4: the highest one in. BASEBALL i mean he's out there
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 4: throwing one hundred and three miles an hour in the
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 4: sixth inning of, games which is unheard. Of he's got
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 4: an unbelievably low hit rate as, well possibly the lowest in.
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 4: Baseball it's one of the lowest low a pretty low
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 4: walk rate as. WELL i mean he's, dominant we get,
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 4: it and he's going up against who were we, TALKING
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 4: i don't remember what we're talking, About, philly, Right, yeah
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 4: he's Faced philly, before believe it or.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 3: Not he actually didn't do well against.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 4: Them they have fifteen at bats against, him two, strikeouts no,
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 4: walks so they have a four hundred batting average against
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 4: them and an eleven thirty three. Ohps So, MIZIEROWSKI i
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 4: don't think he's gonna do.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 3: BAD i.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 4: DON'T i, mean he's just in, really really good form right.
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 4: Now he's just shredding. Everybody AND i don't believe That
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 4: philly game was this. Year, yeah he hasn't Faced philly this,
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 4: year so that was an off game for him last,
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 4: year SO i don't put that much weight into. That
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 4: but he does still have some kind of ugly numbers
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 4: here Against, Philly so you, KNOW i mean it might sound,
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 4: insane BUT i think you might be able to look
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 4: at an over in this.
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 3: Game the total is pretty. Low it's at seven and
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 3: a half for the most part.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 4: Here oddsmaker's obviously telling you think it's gonna be a
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 4: lower scoring game. Here BUT i don't know If painter
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 4: deserves to have a total like that in a game
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 4: of his because he obviously just.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 3: Isn't really good right. NOW i don't know if he
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 3: ever will, Be SO i don't.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 4: Know, man the money is hitting the over fifty eight
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 4: percent of the, tickets ninety percent of the cash on the.
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 4: OVER i think that might be the way that you
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 4: could play this. Game, man you might get.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 3: Screwed.
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 4: Mizzi rowski might come in and just throw it an.
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 4: Absolute you, know he might just be absolutely.
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 3: Dominant that's. True if you're gonna go over, here you
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 3: know WHAT i.
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 4: Mean the probably the best way to play this game
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 4: is still to just Go milwaukee over the team. TOTAL i,
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 4: mean what are we doing, Here Like milwaukee's the minus
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 4: two fifty something favorite. Here, YEAH i think probably the
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 4: way to do it is just Go milwaukee to score
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 4: the majority of the runs, here go over the team To.
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 4: Doe but if you do it that, way maybe that
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 4: isn't the, way because if you do it that, way
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 4: they're probably gonna need to score six runs. HERE i,
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 4: mean they could probably do. It but, YEAH i, Mean
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 4: i'm just offering. Options if you do want to play this.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 4: Game you can't Play milwaukee on the money. Line you,
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 4: know you're paying too much of a price for, that
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 4: especially If Mizzi rawskie just happened to have some like
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 4: there might be just some matchup thing where he just
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 4: doesn't match up well Against philly's.
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 3: BATS i don't.
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 4: Know eighty six percent of tickets ninety four the cash
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 4: On milwaukee, though but Also milwaukee's returning on from the,
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 4: road so you, KNOW i mean that is kind of
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 4: an issue if you Want milwaukee's hitting to be like
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 4: at their complete best, HERE i don't, know so Obviously
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 4: i'm passing on the. Game but, YEAH i, mean STILL
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 4: i think going full game over might actually get you
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 4: a win in that.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 3: One but we'll, say paint painter is gonna get. Painted,
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 3: yes he has not been painting the corners too.
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 4: Well oh my, god, dude like the tail end of
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 4: these illnesses where it's like you're over the whole. Thing
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 4: basically you don't feel sick, anymore but then you're like
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 4: coughing up all the like post nasal drips uff that's
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 4: like left over from being.
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 3: SICK i hate.
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 4: This i'm gonna be right, back and then we'll talk
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 4: about the rest of these games AND Wnba cup. Action
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 4: they should call it The Diva, cup by the, way
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 4: instead of the the instead of The Commissioner's. Cup THE
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 4: Wnba cup should be The Diva. Cup and then we'll
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 4: talk about The World. Cup maybe that should be The
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 4: Diva cup, too because they're all divas uh, dye you,
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 4: know like flopping all over the. Field but, WHATEVER i
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 4: will talk about those, games although AGAIN i don't know
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 4: anything about, soccer So i'll be right back in one.
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 3: Second all. Right next game up Is Houston Kansas.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 4: City so finally For, Zach Kansas city played yesterday and
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 4: they lost To.
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 3: Texas they are staying at home.
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 4: Here so they're at a rest disadvantage of Because houston
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 4: didn't play. Yesterday houston is coming in From, anaheim, though
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 4: so they're having to travel across multiple time zones for
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 4: this game, here so some disadvantages for both tea tas.
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 4: There houston had arrest advantagement at a travel disadvantage. HERE
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 4: i don't like the bullpen's Although houston's bullpen is actually
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 4: the better, one believe it or. Not they're twenty third
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 4: now they've been getting. Better Kansas city twenty ninth not
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 4: good So, houston believe it or. Not, yeah bullpen edge for.
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 4: Them houston's offense has been. Alright the number Ten Kansas
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 4: city is twenty, fifth So houston does have an offensive
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 4: edge here as. Well houston did not play Yesterday Kansas city.
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 4: Had they only used one relief pitcher, yesterday so at
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 4: least there's. That but Still houston's bullpen is the better.
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 3: One and completely.
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 4: RESTED i don't trust the starting pitchers. Really tatsuya E
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 4: mai is pitching for The. Astros he's been pretty. Bad
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 4: five point twenty FOUR era one point four whip that's not.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 4: Good he's been better on the road, though three point
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 4: twenty four road E. Ra But Kansas city has kind
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 4: of become a more hitter from parks since they moved
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 4: the walls and EM i did pitch pretty well last
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 4: time out at home against The. A's he had a
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 4: lot of strikeouts in that. One he's really been okay
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 4: over his last three, starts so those walk numbers have
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 4: been kind of bad, still so he at least for,
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 4: him he is getting, better maybe adjusting to pitching in the. Majors,
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 4: although LIKE i said from you know Mister Tokyo brandon
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 4: from Wager, talk who was THE mlb expert and former,
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 4: scout and he lives In. Japan he knows The japanese
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 4: And korean baseball leagues really. Well he doesn't like this.
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 4: Guy he thinks this guy is like overly cocky and
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 4: doesn't have stuff that's that. Good his hit rate is,
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 4: good though on the season his hit rate is. Low
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 4: his strikeout rates pretty good.
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 3: Too it's just his.
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 4: Walks have been. Insane he's walked way too many. Guys
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 4: but that is something that is correctable. Sometimes up against
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 4: who are we facing, Here Kansas, City i'm assuming they
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 4: haven't seen him before. Yet they have not seen, him
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 4: so he has at least an unfamiliarity edge here Against Kansas.
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 4: City Kansas city's going With Lwinder, avila who is listed
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 4: as a relief, pitcher but he has.
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 3: Been actually going kind of full starts.
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 4: Recently his numbers aren't great four point oh TWO era
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 4: and his one point six whip is really, ugly especially
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 4: considering some of that came in relief.
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 3: Appearances that's not.
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 4: Good he's given up only one or run in each
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 4: of his last two, starts and he's got five innings
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 4: in each. One, however an eight seven strikeout walk ratio
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 4: over that man tells you if something is still a miss,
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 4: here something is not quite, right and that is he's too.
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 4: Wild he hasn't been allowing that many, hits but he's
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 4: allowing a lot of walks. Here that's been the case
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 4: on the course of the. Season his strikeout rate is.
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 4: Okay his hit rate is you, know about one per,
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 4: inning which is kind of. Meh but his walk number
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 4: is definitely the. Problem it's way too. High he's got
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 4: to get that under. Control he will be going up Again,
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 4: houston WHO i believe has not faced him, before so
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 4: we have unfamiliarity.
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 3: Here, whoops That's. Detroit hang, On, Houston, no there we.
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 4: Go Uh Joey loperfido Le perfideo has faced him once
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 4: that is over one off and nobody else has faced.
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 3: HIM i don't know what to.
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 4: Think avila is still like a young, guy by the,
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 4: way so he, might you, know turn into like a
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 4: decent pitcher who. Knows but, YEAH i don't really think
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 4: we could. TRUST i don't.
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 3: Know even though these guys are unfamiliar with each, OTHER
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 3: i don't know IF i trust these.
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 4: Starters this series is looking like it's gonna have some
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 4: runs scored in. It, man you got two pretty ugly bullpens.
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 4: HERE i think you're gonna have some pretty bad starting
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 4: pitchers show.
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 3: Up in this series.
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 4: Too so this series looks like it's gonna be an
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 4: over type of, series and it may start. Here so
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 4: probably that is the WAY i would lean here.
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 3: Is towards an.
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 4: Over we have fifty seven percent of tickets on the,
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 4: under ninety three percent of the cash on the over
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 4: totals at nine or nine, half and it is that
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 4: high for a. Reason if you're gonna play, over find
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 4: a nine and play it over the, nine that that
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 4: would be WHAT i would. SAY i think that's probably
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 4: WHAT i would do IF i was gonna play this.
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 4: Game the money is back In Kansas, city for whatever that's.
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 4: Worth houston's sixty nine percent of tickets on them seventy
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 4: four percent of the cash On Kansas City houston's around
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 4: of minus one eleven favored or so.
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 3: HERE i don't know about.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 4: That it looks, like you, know the the professionals like
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 4: This avila, guy BUT i don't like the way he's
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 4: been walking. Guys imi has walked too many guys. Too
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 4: but he's in a little bit better form right, now
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 4: And houston does have a rest advantage, Here SO i
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 4: don't really know that i'd want to Back Kansas city.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 3: Here the new eraal This.
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 4: Chapman uh well they're not using him as a, closer
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 4: but uh why? Though do you mean just because, like
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 4: does he actually pitch like? HIM i have no idea.
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 3: Without the.
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 4: Strikeouts, well, Yeah chapman has a high strike out. Rated
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 4: Avella is is pretty good, too.
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 3: Though is he From? Cuba, no he's. Not he's From.
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 4: VENEZUELA i Think Eradis chapman is From. Cuba Raulis chapman
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 4: is also a lefty a villa as. Aariety but, yeah all.
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 4: Right Saint louis And. Minnesota minnesota played. Yesterday they lost
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 4: To detroit in that game where we had the over
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 4: which hit Because detroit Beat minnesota eleven or. Nothing minnesota's returning,
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 4: home but they were only away for a single, series
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 4: SO i don't consider that to be like a full
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 4: road trip, return SO i don't think they're gonna be
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 4: really that distracted by. That it's kind of a quick
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 4: return trip From detroit To minnesota within their. Division Saint,
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 4: LOUIS i, think is not as good as the record,
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 4: looks AS i keep, saying and.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 3: They just lost a long win.
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 4: Streak they had a six game win streak snap by
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 4: The mets, yesterday so both teams played, yesterday so neither
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 4: team is. Rested Saint louis is having to travel in
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 4: From New, york so that's a more difficult trip, here
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 4: and again losing along win streak that can hang you
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 4: over into the next. Game, Man SO i think this
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 4: is more of a negative For Saint louis, Here so
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 4: that might have me kind of looking Towards. Minnesota and
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 4: then when you just see the starting pitching, matchup that's
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 4: a clearly an advantage To minnesota here the starting. Pitching
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 4: so some things to like About. Minnesota the one thing
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 4: to not like is their. Bullpen, obviously they only use
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 4: one guy out of the bullpen yesterday, though because they
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 4: got blown, out so they saved the rest of their,
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 4: bullpen ALTHOUGH i think their bullpen is not even worth.
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 4: Saving take it out back behind the shed. Man Saint
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 4: louis did use four relief pitchers, though So Saint louis
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 4: is at a bullpen rest. Disadvantage But minnesota's bullpen is.
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 3: Awful they're ranked twenty eighth and they have the third
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 3: worst bullpen Y.
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 4: Ra really bad stuff. There Saint louis's bullpen is in
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 4: the mediocre.
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 3: Territory they're.
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 4: Sixteenth they're not horrible. OFFENSIVELY i don't know what DID
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 4: i just do? There, Man, YEAH i think it Was
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 4: windows just making the browser window fit the screen or.
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 4: Whatever Saint louis is fourteenth in, Offense minnesota. Nineteenth Kyle
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 4: lay he pitched For Saint. LOUIS i don't think he's very.
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 4: Good four point four TWO, era one point five to
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 4: eight whip is pretty. Bad like that indicates HIS era
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 4: should be higher than. That he's bad on the road
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 4: five point h four ROAD, rra so his home road
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 4: splits or against him. Here he's better at home and
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 4: that more pitcher friendly. Ballpark didn't pitch well at home
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 4: last time Against, cincinnati only lasted four, innings had more
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 4: walks than.
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 3: Strikeouts that's not a good. Sign over the course of the.
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 4: Season he's got a high walk, rate high hit, rate
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 4: a strikeout rates pretty. Low nothing to like here about
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 4: his numbers, really just you, KNOW i, guess just the
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 4: fact that he's kind of consistent in not totally. IMPLODING
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 4: i guess it's the best thing you can say about.
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 4: Him like he'll go out, there go four to five,
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 4: innings allow three or four runs, basically and then you'll
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 4: you might still be in the. Game that's about what
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 4: you can say about. That so maybe barely, SERVICEABLE i,
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 4: guess is what.
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 3: We could say about.
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 4: Him he'll be going up against The twins, here which
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 4: The twins aren't the greatest offense, though and they actually
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 4: have Faced lay a little bit and they haven't done.
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 4: Well they have six guys who have faced him five at,
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 4: bats no strikeouts in two, walks but only a two
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 4: hundred average six twenty nine, ops so they have not
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 4: succeeded against.
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 3: Him BUT i still wouldn't trust. Him he's not. Good
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 3: and Obviously Joe ryan.
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 4: Is the considerably better of these two pitchers here he's
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 4: pitching for The. Twins he's their race three point zero
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 4: seven E r one, whip he's got a two point
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 4: six to one homeye, Race so he's good at. Home
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 4: pitch well in his last, outing but it was Against Kansas,
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 4: city who can't hit on the.
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 3: Road But ryan's been good in.
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 4: General he only give up more than two hour in
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 4: runs once since the beginning Of, may or really since Late.
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 3: April so, YEAH i, mean we know he's. Good he's
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 3: been around for a.
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 4: While we Know ryan is good against, say he actually
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 4: has not had good numbers Against Saint, louis though they
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 4: have twenty at bats, against which is not that, many
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 4: but five, strikeouts one. Walk three different hitters have home
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 4: runs off him three point fifty, average eleven eighty one.
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 4: Ops so, that you, know gives me some pause, there
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 4: BECAUSE i, thought you, know situationally plus starting, pitching it
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 4: looked like A minnesota first five innings might be in play.
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 3: Here but given what the matchup numbers look, LIKE i
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 3: don't THINK i could do. It. MAN i think it's
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 3: a stay away.
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 4: Here you, know there might be more indicators towards an
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 4: over than an under here because you Have ryan.
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 3: The best part of the.
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 4: Pitching the only good part of the pitching here really
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 4: Is ryan and if he doesn't have good matchup, numbers
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 4: and that kind of gets, negated and then you got
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 4: a bad starting pitcher on the other, side two bullpens
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 4: that aren't really that. GOOD i think there are more
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 4: signs towards.
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 3: An over in this.
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 4: One fifty two percent, tickets eighty eight percent of the
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 4: cash on the, over and the money is still Backing minnesota,
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 4: though totals at eight and a. Half by the, way
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 4: for what that's, worth sixty two percent of tickets eighty
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 4: four percent of the cash On minnesota at around minus
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 4: one forty, ors so on the money, LINE i would
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 4: not want their bullpen in the, equation though IF i
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 4: went To, Minnesota i'd probably just go first five and
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 4: go with the guy who is the better.
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 3: Pitcher but you gotta worry about the matchup numbers.
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 4: There oh my, GOD i hear an absolutely ridiculously loud
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 4: revving engine outside with a blasting radio along with. It
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 4: you want to guess who may be driving that, vehicle
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 4: by the, way.
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 3: Or what type of.
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 4: Person maybe let's not get banned, here but, Anyway, yeah
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 4: SO i THINK i you, KNOW i still kind of
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 4: agree with The minnesota first. Five you'd have to lay
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 4: like a run line probably on that, though and have
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 4: them winning at the end of.
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 3: FIVE i don't.
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 4: Know it's a stay Away Tampa bay At. Anaheim, man
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 4: this is gonna be such a long. VIDEO i was
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 4: getting better at going through this a little bit, faster
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 4: but not so much.
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 3: Here anaheim was off. Yesterday they're staying at.
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 4: Home they just won a series Against, houston so that
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 4: was decent for.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 3: Them at.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 4: Least Tampa bay is the better, team BUT i still
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 4: think they're not as good as the record. Looks they
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 4: were off yesterday, too but they had to travel all
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 4: the way to The Pacific coast off of a divisional
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 4: sweep of The Red, sox so it could be a
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 4: little bit of a letdown For Tampa even though The
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 4: Red sox Suck Tampa, bay you, know it's still a
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 4: divisional sweep and going out on the, road going all
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 4: the way to The West coast and having to adjust
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 4: to the times on like that could be a bit
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 4: of a negative. There So anaheim is in a much
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 4: better travel. Spot both teams rested. Here neither bullpen is
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 4: that Good anaheim's is really bad, though twenty seventh not
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 4: a good. Bullpen Tampa bay is is better at, eighteenth
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 4: but THEIR era is still pretty, bad SO i don't
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 4: like these. Bullpens Tampa bay is ranked number twelve an,
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 4: offense so that's pretty. Good anaheim is twenty, second So
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 4: tampa does have the better open and offense still and
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 4: the better starting pitcher on the mound With shane, McClanahan
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 4: who's had had a good season coming back from, injury
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 4: two point eight FIVE, era one point one. Whip he
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 4: has been worse on the road, though three point six
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 4: to Eight Roady, ray which is.
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 3: Still not bad though.
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 4: Uh he pitched mediocre in his last road outing Against,
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 4: miami but still had good command numbers. There he's been
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 4: pretty good, overall and there's not really a whole lot
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 4: to look into. Here he's got a decent strikeout, rate
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 4: a really low hit. Rate his walk rate is like
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 4: a little bit, high but not, bad so he's been.
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 4: Alright he'll be Facing anaheim.
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 3: Here bring it.
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 4: Up forty five career at bats Against, anaheim thirteen, strikeouts two,
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 4: walks only one extra mase hit a double from o'hoppah
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 4: two hundred batting average four to fifty six ops against.
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 4: Them so McClanahan has has good numbers against The. Angels
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 4: he'll be going up Against Samuel, aldegary The Italian. STALLION
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 4: i DON'T i have no idea if that's his name or,
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 4: not the gentleman From.
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 3: Verona, NO i don't.
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 4: Know we got a lot Of italian guys in the
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 4: uh in the majors, now Man Chase. Burns even though
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 4: his name is An, italian he's also From, italy Which
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 4: Alde gary also. Is and then There's houston's got A
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 4: why DO i ever forget his?
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 3: Name, uh they're you, know The italian. Guy they have
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 3: the long.
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 4: Hair why DO i fucking forget everybody's name? Already, uh
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 4: they're just all these come On, Houston Astros. ARRAGHETTY i
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 4: didn't even have to look, Yet Spencer. Aarraghetty both of
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 4: those guys names ARE sa INITIALS i. Mean and then,
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 4: Uh SLAY CHACONI i don't. Know you got a lot
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 4: Of italians, here Man Alde. Gary he's got a two
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 4: point two FIVE, era but a one point three to
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 4: three whip is not that. Good he's pitched off and
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 4: on in the majors For anaheims is twenty twenty, four
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 4: but his numbers have never been good in the. Majors
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 4: that doesn't mean he isn't. Good he's only twenty four years,
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 4: old so he might be. GOOD i don't know. Yet
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 4: he's been good at home this year one point seven
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 4: to four homie are so, far but he hasn't pitched
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 4: much at.
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 3: All he's only had four.
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 4: Outings he's only gone at least five innings, once which
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 4: was a good home outing against The.
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 3: Rockies but they don't hit well at. Home The rockies
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 3: don't hit well on the. Road Uh SO i don't.
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 4: Know it's still he's still a real mystery. HERE i
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 4: don't know what we're gonna get out of. Him he's
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 4: got eight, strikeouts five walks in twelve innings so. Far
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 4: that's not a great ratio at. All eleven hits a,
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 4: lot that's. Alright AND i let's see what he has Against.
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 4: Houston houston has seen him before because he's pitched a
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 4: couple of years and they're in the same. Division they
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 4: have twelve at bats against, them two, strikeouts one, walk
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 4: four to seventeen average one forty five. Ohps so he
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 4: does not have good matchup numbers, here So tampa does
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 4: have the matchup edge in every phase of the. Game
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 4: it's just the travel spot is not good For. Tampa
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 4: so those things are in conflict with each. Other so
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 4: do what you want in that. Game, ALSO i think
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 4: you have to probably lay too much of a price
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 4: For tampa here at minus one seventy five or whatever
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 4: on the money. Line not SOMETHING i would want to.
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 4: Do AND i still don't Think tampa is quite as
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 4: good as the record. Looks the money is backing them.
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 4: Though it looks like even though they're, public eighty seven
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets ninety five percent of the cash on.
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 3: Them if you Play, tampa.
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 4: You gotta lay like a minus one run line or
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 4: do something like that with them if you really want
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 4: to do. It money is backing the under in this, game,
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 4: too which is. Interesting oh, WAIT i just looked At.
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 4: Houston what AM i?
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 3: Doing i'm an?
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 4: Idiot aldegary hold on Against. TAMPA i bet they've never
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 4: seen him. Before but hang, on my. MISTAKE i don't
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 4: know WHY i looked At. Houston i'm all over the
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 4: all over the place.
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 3: HERE i.
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 4: Apologize, Yeah tampa's never faced him, before so maybe he
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 4: does have an unfamiliarity edge there that might explain the
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 4: money coming in on the. UNDER i, mean McClanahan looks
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 4: like he matches up fine, here so there is. That so, yeah,
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 4: McClanahan yeah, yeah if he hasn't Faced anaheim this, year then,
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 4: yeah all of his numbers are from previous.
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 3: Years BUT i don't know why that would. Be why
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 3: would that change?
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 4: Though if McClanahan looks like he's pitching the same now
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 4: that he was back then before the, injury and you're
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 4: looking at him facing the same batters that did whatever
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 4: those numbers were against him, before is there any, Difference,
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 4: LIKE i don't really think. So it's still the same
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 4: guys going up against each. Other SO i think those
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 4: numbers are an indicator of. Something at the very, least
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 4: McClanahan is just a pretty good pitcher though he has
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 4: been good like throughout his, career So i'm pretty much
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 4: never gonna be of the opinion that he's gonna pitch.
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 4: Poorly it's just THAT i, might you, know not play
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 4: on him unless it's a really specific. Situation colorado at
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 4: The A's this is gonna be, ridiculous. Man The a's
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 4: are still playing In Las, vegas by the, way they
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 4: had yesterday, off but they're still playing In. Vegas colorado played,
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 4: yesterday by the, way they did not sweep The. Cubs
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 4: The cubs avoided the sweep yesterday with a win. Yesterday
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 4: So colorado is now. Traveling they're starting a road. Trip
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 4: they're at a rest disadvantage because they played. Yesterday The
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 4: a's did, not and The a's are staying at. Home
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 4: so The a's travel and rest advantage go to them.
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 4: Here and The a's have another little bit of an
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 4: extra edge here because they're used to this venue, already
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 4: because they've played three games in this Stupid vegas stadium.
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 4: Already it is at a high, elevation, though So colorado
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 4: is used to playing at a high, elevation so there
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 4: is that this stadium is a lower elevation Than colorado's, is,
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 4: though and the total in this game is still way.
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 4: High but that's kind of interesting because the two of
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 4: the games in the stadium so, Far i've gone under the.
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 4: Total the first one was an explosion of twenty nine
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 4: runs when The a's Played milwaukee, here but both of
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 4: the other two games went under and landed twelve and,
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 4: Seven SO i don't. Know we still don't really know
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 4: how to gauge this, stadium but the oddsmakers still might
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 4: be overrating how overconducive it. Is, Anyway colorado used two
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 4: relief pitchers. Yesterday The a's were. Off neither bullpen is that.
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 4: Good The a's are a little bit better at twenty.
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 4: One colorado's twenty, fifth but they have the worst bullpen E,
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 4: ra so they.
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 3: Stink The a's have the better.
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 4: Offense they're, Seventh colorado, fourteenth so both teams can definitely Hit.
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 4: Colorado we have no idea who's gonna pitch for, them
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 4: but if you look five games ago For, colorado which
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 4: is usually an indicator of what they're gonna do, today
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 4: they went with a bullpen, game so it's probably gonna
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 4: be a bullpen game From colorado. Here and they're going
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 4: up against our favorite, Guy Gauge, jump who has given.
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 4: US i think he's given us two wins on the
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 4: show so. Far, yeah he gave us a win against
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 4: The cubs and Against. Houston hell, yeah, Man Gauge. Jump
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 4: he's young guy for The.
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 3: A's he's got an awesome.
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 4: Name at least his numbers are still a little bit questionable,
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 4: though even though he's been pretty good in his last two,
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 4: starts both on the. Row he's allowed pretty few hits,
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 4: here which is, good but.
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 3: His walk number a little bit.
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 4: High but his strikeout rate is really kind of The,
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 4: actually his walk rate's not even that. Bad his strikeout
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 4: rate is just kind of, Low so that's kind of
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 4: the issue.
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 3: Here two point four.
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 4: To FIVE r one point zero nine whip for gage jump,
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 4: though so his numbers are solid. Overall it's JUST i
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 4: think you'd like to see him strike out, more but
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 4: maybe that's not part of part of his. Game colorado
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 4: has also never seen him, before, obviously so he should
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 4: have an advantage. Here so The a's do have an
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 4: advantage throughout this? Game do The a's have the better, offense,
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 4: bullpen and starting? Pitcher when do The a's have the
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 4: advantage in all three phases of a? Game and they
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 4: have the situational edger because they're staying at home and
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 4: are more accustomed to this. Venue but you gotta lay
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 4: a huge price with them Because colorado gets no respect
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 4: in the. Market sometimes correctly they, don't but you're looking
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 4: at the minus one to eighty something price on The a's,
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 4: here if you play The, a's WHICH i wouldn't be
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 4: opposed to, it, really but you gotta lay like a
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 4: minus one run line or something like, that get that
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 4: price down on The. A's the money is fading them,
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 4: though ninety four percent of tickets eighty nine percent of
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 4: the cash on The.
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 3: A's looks like some of the money is.
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 4: Just Playing, colorado even though it's a bullpen game for,
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 4: them it's just playing them based on the.
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 3: PRICE i. GUESS i don't.
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 4: Know And, jump by the, way he is slightly more
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 4: fly ball, conducive so that's something to consider. Here But
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 4: jump he pitches in The a's stadium In, sacramento so
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 4: he's already used to hit her friendly ballparks as. Well
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 4: though that was his worst start, though so that is
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 4: something to.
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 3: Consider.
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 4: Jump in his only start in an environment like this
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 4: in the As Sacramento, stadium he gave up four runs
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 4: on nine hits To, seattle but he also didn't allow
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 4: a home, run had five, strikeouts one, walk and it
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 4: was his first career major league, start so he might
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 4: be able to chalk that up to him be. Nervous
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 4: SO i don't know how much weight we should really
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 4: put into, that so all things to consider. Here the
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 4: money is backing the old though pretty. Strong here the
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 4: total is thirteen and a half or. FOURTEEN i think
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 4: that's still too, high like for a game with jump.
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 4: PITCHING i don't, know, MAN i think he deserves more
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 4: respect than that in the total at the very. Least
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 4: another way that you could look at, this, though is
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 4: you could Go a's to go over their team total,
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 4: HERE i. Guess but you're gonna need him to score
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 4: like eight or nine runs if you do, that and
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 4: that is quite an.
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 3: Ask SO i don't THINK i would do anything like,
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 3: that you.
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 4: KNOW i think maybe getting The a's priced down By
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 4: lango minus one run line on the makes.
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 3: Sense, yeah that's. Right clanahan fac The. Andrews.
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 4: Yeah how COULD i forget these teams just played each
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 4: other BECAUSE i lost an under in one of those. Games,
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 4: yeah McClanahan pitched pretty well in that.
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 3: Game that was two starts Ago may.
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 4: Thirty, first he went five innings at home Against anaheim
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 4: and gave up one run on four, hits three, strikeouts no.
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 3: Walks, Correct.
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 4: But, yeah his his numbers Against anaheim before or THAT
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 4: i think still have some weight as. Well all, right
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 4: and then we have the last game is The cubs
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 4: In San francisco in the latest of the late. Games
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 4: San francisco is resting and staying at, home So San
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 4: francisco does have an advantage, here and they just ended
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 4: a little bit of a losing streak with a win Over,
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 4: washington So San francisco has a rest advantage and a
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 4: travel advantage. Here cubs have to come in from having
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 4: played yesterday In colorado and now they're coming out To San,
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 4: francisco so kind of a disadvantage For. Colorado, though they
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 4: might still be motivated because they lost To San francisco
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 4: at home the series prior to. That they lost one
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 4: of the games by one, run, though and the game
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 4: they won was by one.
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 3: Run the game they.
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 4: Lost otherwise was a, massacre which is probably not gonna happen.
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 3: Again but, yeah The cubs might.
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 4: Still be motivated here because they know they just lost
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 4: at home To San, francisco so a little bit of
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 4: quick road revenge For chicago. Here at the very, least
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 4: The cubs used some bullpen. Arms yesterday they used, four
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 4: so that's not. Great their bullpen is better Than San, francisco's,
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 4: Though cubs are tenth and Bullpen San francisco is twenty.
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 4: Six their bullpen's really been struggling Recently San, Francisco, So,
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 4: cubs even though they use some, guys probably still have
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 4: a bit of a bullpen edge. HERE i think The
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 4: cubs are the better, offense even though The giants are
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 4: ranked ninth right, NOW i still don't buy.
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 3: IT i, mean they had.
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 4: Three just huge offensive explosions. RECENTLY i still don't like their.
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 4: OFFENSE i don't think it's. GOOD i think The cubs
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 4: offense is still the better, one even though they ranked
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 4: TWELVETH so and have a worse batting average.
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 3: Or do what you want with.
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 4: That The cubs are gonna be going with the, Dictator
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 4: Javier rossade on the mound, here he's been alright four
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 4: point seventy THREE era one point oh eit.
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 3: Whips some of these are relief. APPEARANCES i think he's
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 3: been in and out of the starting.
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 4: Rotation he's been bad on the road, though eight road
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 4: ra but it is a small sample size And San
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 4: francisco is a pitcher friendly.
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 3: Park he just Faced San.
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 4: Francisco by the, way it was a interesting situation because
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 4: that was in that previous. Series jameson Tie on started
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 4: that game and he got, hurt So asad came in
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 4: early in the game and he wound up going six
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 4: and a thirty innings of one, hit shutout ball Against San,
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 4: francisco five, strikeouts one. Walk so A sod pitched well
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 4: in that, game and he's generally been.
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 3: Pretty good this.
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 4: Season he's got a low hit, rate low walk, rate
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 4: but a strikeout rates not that. High he doesn't strike
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 4: out a lot of, guys but, yeah overall he's he's all,
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 4: right and he did pitch well Against San, francisco but
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 4: of course that does Mean San francisco just saw, him
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 4: so now that they're recently familiar with, them maybe they'll
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 4: be able to adjust against. Him but they've seen him
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 4: more than just that, outing and they haven't done well against.
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 4: Him they got thirty five at bats against, him they
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 4: have only a one seventy one, average four to sixty
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 4: five oh ps against, him seven to three strikeout walk,
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 4: Racial so he's generally been.
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 3: Good Against San.
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 4: Francisco SO i kind of Think asad is gonna pitch
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 4: well again here he's going up Against Landon. ROUPE i
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 4: do Like ralp has kind of mediocre numbers though FOR
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 4: era one point two to nine whips kind of high
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 4: for The.
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 3: Giants.
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 4: Here he's been a little bit worse at home four
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 4: point one HOME, era but not that much. Worse his
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 4: walk number has become a problem. Though that was an
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 4: issue against The. Cubs we got to win with The
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 4: cubs in the game that he. Pitched we faded him
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 4: in that game because he doesn't have good matchup numbers
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 4: against The.
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 3: Cubs he pitched.
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 4: Okay in that, game you'll give up one or, run
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 4: but he did have three walks in that game in
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 4: five to two thirds, innings so he got a little bit.
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 3: Lucky in that.
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 4: Game and he's had eight walks over his last nine
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 4: to two thirds innings in the month Of, june so
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 4: he started to become. Wild so right now he's not
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 4: pitching that, well and he had nine strikeouts over that same.
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 4: Span over the course of the, season he's got decent,
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 4: numbers low hit, rate high strike gut, ray but his
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 4: walk rate is too. High so he's got to fix
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 4: this walk issue that he. Has man The cubs are
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 4: recently familiar, with so both starters just recently saw these.
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 4: Opponents roup against The cubs doesn't have great, numbers including
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 4: that last outing forty at bats to seventy five, average
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 4: eight oh, one ops, allowed eight, strikeouts three.
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 3: Walks not.
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 4: Great so you, KNOW i THINK i gotta lean towards
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 4: The cubs. HERE i, think you, know they might still
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 4: have the better bullpen. HERE i know they're in a
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 4: travel disadvantage that is a, problem SO i don't really want,
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 4: them but.
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 3: Slight lean from me to The. Cubs. Here money is.
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 3: Disagreeing oh, no, yeah it is disagree.
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 4: Sixty six percent of tickets on The, cubs sixty three
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash On San. Franciscos so the money
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 4: is pretty strongly indicating On San francisco. HERE i don't
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 4: know about, that. MAN i, mean they do have a situational,
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 4: Edge i'll give you. That And roup is not that,
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 4: bad So i'll give you. THAT i, MEAN i Know
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 4: i've played on some unders with him and. Whatever minus
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 4: one twenty is the price On San. Francisco there is
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 4: a reason why they're, FAVORED i. Guess BUT i thought
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 4: that the public was off of The cub train because
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 4: The cubs have been playing bad baseball, recently SO i
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 4: thought the public.
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 3: Wouldn't want anything to do with The.
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 4: Cubs SO i don't know money coming in on the
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 4: over in this game as well in the totals at
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 4: eight and a, HALF i don't know about. That so,
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 4: YEAH i don't really have a read for the total
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 4: in this. ONE i think if you go over you
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 4: want to go full game with, that, though because then
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 4: you Get San francisco's bullpen that's been pretty lackluster involved,
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 4: there and you get The cubs unrested bullpen. There, jesse what's?
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 4: Up thanks for hanging? Out are you gonna fart in
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 4: the in the? Chat for people who don't, Know jesse
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 4: is the pre eminent fart poster On. Twitter there is
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 4: nobody else like.
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 3: That all. Right that is The Baseball.
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 4: Breakdown now we gotta go TO wnba just because we
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 4: got to do, it, Man Because i'm looking for value
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 4: in the W.
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 3: NBA i don't see a whole lot.
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 4: Here you're on the. Toilet that's very trump like of
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 4: you to be doing. THAT i don't really want that
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 4: image in my mind. Though i'm not one of those
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 4: freaks who's into. That all, Right toronto At. Washington these
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 4: are cup, games LIKE i, said The Diva, cup THE
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 4: Wnba Commissioner's, Cup toronto And. Washington this is a weird.
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 4: Game it's an ugly. Game and my first instinct here
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 4: was why Is washington? Favored LIKE i think that was
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 4: going to be the sort of the public perception of
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 4: this game if they're looking at this game, Right Like
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 4: toronto has a pretty good, record they're above five. Hundred
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 4: washington as a bad. Record they're not a good, team
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 4: they're not good at, home.
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 3: So why would they be.
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 4: Favored so my first instinct as, Well, Okay i'm gonna
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 4: lean To washington here, then probably because the oddsmakers are
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 4: telling you something with that. Line, however you look at
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 4: the situation, Here i'm actually gonna not lean that. Way
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 4: washington is coming out of a really tough game Against
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 4: indiana where they only lost by. Two i'm they almost
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 4: were able to Beat caitlin Clark. Man that was a
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 4: big game for. Them they had another game where they
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 4: Played indiana and eat them in, overtime and guess what
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 4: they did the next game after. That they got obliterated
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 4: By dallas after. That so this might be a bad
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 4: spot for them coming off a big game Against indiana
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 4: and they Have New york next to which might be
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 4: a look ahead because they're one of the better teams
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 4: in the, league even though the record isn't quite up
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 4: to where it should. Be, toronto, WELL i think because you,
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 4: know they're an expansion, TEAM i don't really think they're
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 4: as good as the record. Looks toronto did lose To,
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 4: washington by the, way in their first game of the
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 4: season at, home so they're home open or their first
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 4: game in their new venue in the in this venue
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 4: as an expansion, team first game is an expansion team
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 4: on that. Floor they lost that, game so they might
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 4: want a little bit of revenge Against washington for that.
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 4: REASON i didn't look at the box score for this
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 4: to see what actually happened in this.
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 3: Game by the, way.
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 4: Both teams shot terribly in this, game so you might
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 4: be able to look at an over in today's game,
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 4: too because these teams shot so, badly like there's no
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 4: way that's gonna happen. Again washington was actually the better
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 4: team kind of though they led for almost the whole.
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 4: Game they had the rebounding edge in the. Game they
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 4: did shoot. Better toronto just shot, horribly So toronto should shoot,
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 4: better but both teams should shoot better. Here that game
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 4: was unbelievably low, scoring so an under doesn't make or excuse.
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 4: Me an over is gonna make some sense in this
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 4: game here as, well BUT i Think toronto is gonna
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 4: want to bounce back from that. Performance And toronto actually
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 4: has a better setup coming into this game, too because
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 4: they just barely Beat, connecticut which is pretty. Embarrassing connecticut
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 4: is an awful, team worst team in the. League So
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 4: toronto barely escaping a game like that Against connecticut that
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 4: should focus them into this.
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 3: Game SO i Lean toronto in this. One money seems to.
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 4: Agree washington looks, public which doesn't make sense to. ME i,
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 4: MEAN i don't know how much public involvement there even.
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 4: Is so you gotta find find out how to interpret these,
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 4: numbers you, know because they might be it might be
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 4: mostly professional action here ninety two percent of the, tickets
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 4: seventy seven percent of the cash On washington lay two
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 4: and a. Half but, YEAH i would lean towards taking
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 4: the points With, toronto and the market read is also
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 4: agreeing with me on the.
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 3: OVER i would lean towards the over.
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 4: Here seventy one percent of, tickets ninety three percent of
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 4: the cash on the. Over there's no way you're gonna
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 4: see that. Game the first game these teams played wound
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 4: up in like the low one, thirties and the total
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 4: years won sixty. Nine and that's actually kind of a
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 4: lowish total for A wnba, game ALTHOUGH i know the
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 4: other total today is in the one, fifties but or, actually,
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 4: no this is a little bit of a higher.
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 3: Total actually my.
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 4: Mistake usually the higher totals are like one, Seventies so
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 4: this is in the high one. Sixties but it's high for, reason,
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 4: Right like people might look at that first game and be,
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 4: like how could you possibly expect this game to go
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 4: to get up to one seventy when the first time
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 4: he seems played they barely got past one. Thirty, yeah
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 4: well that's exactly, why because those these teams just shot so.
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 4: Badly and remember it was the first game of the,
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 4: season and the first game of the. Season a lot
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 4: of times the offenses are just not ready to go.
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 4: Yet toronto was an expansion, team so they didn't have
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 4: rhythm yet, offensively you, know so teams could start out
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 4: really slow offensively for that. Reason So i'm almost talking
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 4: myself into. IT i like the over in this, game
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 4: that might be the best way to play this. Game
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 4: BUT i also Lean toronto in that, Game, JESSE i
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 4: do WHEN i, OH i enjoy toilet?
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 3: Action is that what you're.
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 4: Saying i'm a, Freak But i'm kind of a normal,
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 4: freak right LIKE i just Like. Boobs that's about. It
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 4: i'm not a toilet, Guy, charles what's? Up thanks for hanging, Out.
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 4: CHARLES i thought you're working, man all? Right and then
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 4: the other game Is Golden state In. Seattle this is a.
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 4: Mismatch seattle is an ass team and they're not. Good
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 4: seattle has lost a bunch of games in a, row
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 4: seven games in a. Row they haven't won Any cup.
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 4: Games they're coming up another loss To la although was.
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 4: Close they're staying at. Home they did lose here on
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 4: this floor in their home, opener so we have two
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 4: home opener revenge games, here if you want to call it.
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 4: That So seattle might remember that and maybe they want
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 4: to play better here Against Golden. State they're just not
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 4: the better. Team, though if you dive into this, game
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 4: it is true That seattle was only a five and
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 4: a half point underdog in this game BECAUSE i think
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 4: we didn't realize how bad they were going into the,
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 4: season And Golden state did spend a lot of money
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 4: over the. Offseason they've, improved they're a better. Team but
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 4: this line was five and a half in the season
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 4: opener and Now Golden state's nine and a half At seattle,
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 4: Tonight so that might be a little bit of an over,
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 4: adjustment Man, like based on what we've seen so far
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 4: during the, season should this line of move four, POINTS
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 4: i don't really know about. That and then when we
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 4: dig into this, game there wasn't really too much to
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 4: see except That Golden state did have kind of an
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 4: outlier three point percentage. Here they shot forty percent from,
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 4: three which might regress here a little, bit but they
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 4: hit six more.
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 3: Threes they took. More but that was one of the reasons.
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 4: Why they won this game by the amount that they,
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 4: did was the three point, shooting which might regress a
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 4: little bit, Here so that is a regression. Point and,
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 4: actually believe it or, Not seattle won the rebounding.
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 3: Battle in the.
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 4: Games that does tell you That seattle was a little
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 4: bit more competitive than the eleven.
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 3: Point loss makes it.
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 4: Look Golden state did miss a lot of free throws,
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 4: though and they probably do turn that around into this,
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 4: game but they were plus eighteen from three point, range
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 4: so that seems to be the biggest regression point. Here
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 4: Golden state is also coming up Beating, phoenix but they
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 4: did end a losing streak with that.
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 3: Win that was a decent.
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 4: WIN i don't know that they're gonna look ahead to
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 4: la who, knows but they might Overlook seattle a little
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 4: bit just because of the nature of, this because of
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 4: how Bad seattle is and how the last time they
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 4: were here they won pretty. Easily So i'll have us
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 4: slight lean To seattle here plus the, points but nothing
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 4: strong at all for me in my. Opinion, Here Golden
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 4: state has seventy five percent of tickets ninety percent of
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 4: the cash on, them so the money looks like it's
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 4: agreeing With Golden state nine and a, half or basically
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 4: is where the, total where the excuse where the spread is.
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 3: Here now do with that info what you. Want i'd
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 3: slightly lean see out of. IT i like the other game.
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 4: BETTER i think Over Toronto washington is the best play
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 4: on THE wnba board there not gonna make my card,
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 4: though doesn't make the cut for.
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 3: Me MAYBE i should start getting involved in these. Totals
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 3: you should be.
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 4: Working, YEAH i feel that this is my work, Here so, uh,
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 4: YES i don't know WHAT i, said but, Yeah i'm pretty,
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 4: FUNNY i, guess all, Right and then we Have World,
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 4: cup Which i'm just mentioning it because it's the. Thing
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 4: but take my opinions with a grain of salt. Here
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 4: ALTHOUGH i was correct about who won both games, yesterday you,
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 4: know and if you played WHAT i recommended on The
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 4: South korea, game you would have. Won on THAT i,
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 4: Said South. KOREA i THINK i said, draw no, Bet South.
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 4: Korea play would have been the play there to get
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 4: that price in the right.
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 3: Range so they.
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 4: Won so if they if they, drew it would have
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 4: been a. Push but they, won so you really weren't
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 4: ever in danger of them losing, Outright so.
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 3: Today we Have SO i was.
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 4: QUESTIONING i was, like, WELL i thought this was A
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 4: us Hosted World, Cup so why Was mexico's group being
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 4: played In mexico? Yesterday, WELL i guess this is A
• 1:49:13
  Speaker 4: North america Hosted World cup Because canada is Hosting canada's
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 4: group and THE us is hosting all the rest of the,
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 4: groups including THE us. Groups SO i don't know what
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 4: we're what we're doing, here, Man So mexico's group is
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 4: all being played In. Mexico canada's group is all being
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 4: played In. Canada all the rest of the, groups the
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 4: other ten are all being played in THE.
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 3: Us that's what's.
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 4: Happening So canada is Playing Bosnia herzegovina here In.
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 3: Toronto this is the afternoon. Game these teams are both On.
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 3: Fox whatever the Fuck telly. IS i thought they just
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 3: met THE tv And. Peacock maybe maybe that Is maybe
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 3: it's the OLD tv.
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 4: Antenna bring out the rabbit ears and you can watch
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 4: this this soccer match. Here, Uh canada is favored in this,
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 4: game you. Know to, ME i think that THE i don't,
• 1:50:03
  Speaker 4: know because maybe it's just my own, bias my own,
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 4: perception because really What i'm trying to do is just.
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 4: Think i'm trying to think how would the public think
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 4: about this, game BECAUSE i don't have any way to
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 4: really gauge the percentages, here market percentages. Whatever SO i
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 4: said yesterday THAT i thought the sense among the public
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 4: would be that The Czech republic should be a better
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 4: team In South korea Because europe is more all about,
• 1:50:26
  Speaker 4: soccer you. Know so that's WHY i kind of Like
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 4: South korea and the ozregers are telling you something by
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 4: telling you there was slightly better. Team, okay, well the
• 1:50:34
  Speaker 4: ozeregers are telling You canada is actually better Than boston
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 4: And Herzego vienna.
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 3: Here but look at.
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 4: This wouldn't you expect, that like A balkan team would
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 4: be the better soccer team Or. Canada canada they play
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 4: soccer like what the? Fuck AND i know part of
• 1:50:49
  Speaker 4: this is Because canada's at. Home they're playing In, toronto al,
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 4: right so, yeah that's part of the reason why they're
• 1:50:53
  Speaker 4: favored like. This but the osbregers are telling You canada
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 4: is the better. TEAM i don't know if and when
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 4: they've Hosted World cup. Before uh SO i DON'T i don't.
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 4: KNOW i mean it's maybe it's happened. BEFORE i have no,
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 4: idea but, YEAH i MEAN i don't. Know it seems
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 4: like there'll be some excitement Around canada for that. REASON
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 4: i think they might actually get a little bit. Overlook even,
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 4: MYSELF i, SAID i don't Like canada that much in
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 4: This World, cup BUT i think they have kind of
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 4: an easy group that they're, In so, Yeah i'll lean
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 4: To canada. THERE i think if you do play that,
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 4: game it probably makes. Sense SO i guess play the
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 4: three way line and lay the one twenty minus one
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 4: twenty For. Canada but you need them to win the
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 4: game if they do, That SO i guess that's probably
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 4: the WAY i would look at that. Game and, then
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 4: by the, way one THING i forgot to mention is
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 4: that these first, GAMES i think unders kind of make
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 4: some sense here because these, TEAMS i, mean they've played
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 4: together to some, extent but they haven't PLAYED i don't
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 4: think they've played like for a while. WHATEVER i guess
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 4: they must have some like warm up, games and you,
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 4: KNOW i guess they play in whatever whatever those games
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 4: are called where they become eligible for The World, cup
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 4: whatever the fuck the qualifying matches what. Ever SO i
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 4: guess these teams have, played you, know to that extent
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 4: with each. Other but, still if you've had like a
• 1:52:04
  Speaker 4: long layoff as a team, WHATEVER a lot of these
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 4: teams have obviously had to travel across oceans and, stuff
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 4: so that can kind of affect offensive, rhythm you know
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 4: WHAT i.
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 3: Mean so yesterday we saw some low scoring matches.
• 1:52:15
  Speaker 4: YESTERDAY i think The South korea match did go over,
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 4: though BECAUSE i think the totals are just typically, yeah just,
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 4: Whatever just throw out a two and a half as the.
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 4: Total so The mexico ONE i think went under and
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 4: the other one went, over but, whatever.
• 1:52:29
  Speaker 3: All, Right and THEN us And paraguay is the other game.
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 4: Here THE us is the favorite on the three way
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 4: line to the odds on favorite even though they're an
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 4: underdog against the. Draw combined with The paraguay, WIN usa
• 1:52:44
  Speaker 4: is plus one ten on the three way. Line basically,
• 1:52:46
  Speaker 4: HERE i think THAT i would Lean paraguay, here AND
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 4: i think the way to do it is PROBABLY i don't,
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 4: Know i'd have to look at what the prices were,
• 1:52:58
  Speaker 4: again whatever gets you. Like there was one price that
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 4: was around minus one, forty AND i think it was
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 4: the double chance bet believing AROUND i think it Was
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 4: paraguay win or. DRAW i think was at a price
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 4: of minus one forty win the bet if either of
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 4: those events. HAPPENED i think that's probably WHAT i would
• 1:53:17
  Speaker 4: lean in this. GAME i think there's a lot of
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 4: hype around THE us. Man this game is In, Inglewood,
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 4: california by the, way it's At Sofi stadium where The
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 4: La chargers. PLAY i believe and actually actually. Know is
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 4: it The chargers and The rams that. PLAY i don't
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 4: even fucking. Know did they play in the same. STADIUM
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 4: i don't know. HOW i don't know, that BUT i
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 4: actually don't. Know they, MIGHT i don't, know, whatever whatever the.
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 4: Fuck it's one of THOSE la football stadiums that's now.
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 3: Being used for the Non american version of. Football BUT
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 3: i think there's just too much.
• 1:53:46
  Speaker 4: Hype around THE us and all these betting, markets, remember
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 4: are gonna be biased towards THE, Us like these betting,
• 1:53:53
  Speaker 4: markets like the majority of these betters ARE, us, okay
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 4: you know WHAT i, Mean like a lot of these
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 4: big books are based out of THE, US dk AND
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 4: fd and, whatever so there's gonna be a HEAVY us bias.
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 4: Here SO i think you're not gonna get that much
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 4: value betting on THE us throughout The World. Cup so
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 4: like my tendency would be THAT i think you just
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 4: want to fade THE us when you're looking at their
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 4: games in unless they have like a really good situation
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 4: or something like. That BUT i think first, game it's
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 4: gonna be a lot of, hype probably too much. Hype
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 4: paraguay is not a bad soccer, country you know WHAT i,
• 1:54:28
  Speaker 4: Mean like they're usually in The World, Cup.
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 3: They're an ok.
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 4: Team they're From South, america so you know soccer is
• 1:54:34
  Speaker 4: a big thing, There so, YEAH i Think paraguay might
• 1:54:37
  Speaker 4: be a little bit undervalued. Here so that's probably the
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 4: WAY i would look at that Is paraguay on the
• 1:54:41
  Speaker 4: double chance, bet which Is paraguay win or, draw WHICH
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 4: i think is about minus one. Forty but you can
• 1:54:49
  Speaker 4: check me If i'm wrong about that if you find
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 4: a better price on the like draw no bet, option
• 1:54:53
  Speaker 4: which means that if there is a, draw your bet
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 4: just will be, voided basically your. Push you could if
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 4: that's a better price than that is fine as. WELL
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 4: i mean that will be a less expensive. Price BUT
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 4: i think it was like a pretty big underdog price
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 4: on that from WHAT i, SAID i think it was
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 4: like plus one seventy or something BECAUSE i Think paraguay
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 4: to win this. GAME i think it's like a pretty big.
• 1:55:14
  Speaker 4: Underdog so do with that information what you. Want but oh,
• 1:55:20
  Speaker 4: Man i'm still. DYING i think there's value there potentially On,
• 1:55:23
  Speaker 4: Paraguay so do with that info what you. Want LIKE
• 1:55:27
  Speaker 4: i think THEY i think there's a chance that they
• 1:55:30
  Speaker 4: can win that, Game but what DO i know about?
• 1:55:33
  Speaker 4: SOCCER i don't know anything, anyway that's gonna do. It
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 4: HOPEFULLY i picked the right unders. Here my two actual
• 1:55:39
  Speaker 4: plays are under eight In Braves mets in, baseball under
• 1:55:43
  Speaker 4: eight In Yankees Blue jays in. Baseball those are the plays.
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 4: Today hopefully we get those because knowing me, recently we're
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 4: gonna lose. Both and then my other leans on the
• 1:55:54
  Speaker 4: other two unders are both gonna. Hit which Were, Rangers
• 1:55:58
  Speaker 4: Red sox and what was the other? One, AGAIN i already.
• 1:56:02
  Speaker 4: FORGET i had two other unders THAT i kind of.
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 4: LIKED i think it Was cleveland and what was? It
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 4: let me, LOOK i can look real. Quick it Was
• 1:56:13
  Speaker 4: cleveland And. Detroit, yeah so watch those unders. Hit those
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 4: are my two next strongest leads for what that's. Worth
• 1:56:22
  Speaker 4: that's gonna do. IT i appreciate. It thanks everybody for hanging.
• 1:56:25
  Speaker 4: Out learn It toad On. Twitter you can find all
• 1:56:28
  Speaker 4: my chaos. There you can subscribe to me there if
• 1:56:30
  Speaker 4: you want to support me that. Way learn a tone
• 1:56:32
  Speaker 4: On instagram for a short form of this Or i'm
• 1:56:35
  Speaker 4: gonna be coughing and dying again probably like subscribe to
• 1:56:41
  Speaker 4: the channel here and you'll figure out WHEN i go.
• 1:56:43
  Speaker 4: Live although it's pretty consistent in the mornings at least
• 1:56:46
  Speaker 4: tell everybody about.
• 1:56:47
  Speaker 3: It let's get these numbers.
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 4: Up listen On, Audio, Apple, Spotify. Spreaker that helps me
• 1:56:52
  Speaker 4: out as. Well covered In you because My ukulele cover.
• 1:56:56
  Speaker 4: Channel you can check that out as, Well paedreon dot,
• 1:56:58
  Speaker 4: com slash learn It, tone want to support me that,
• 1:57:00
  Speaker 4: Way The Loser cast Every tuesday, night check that, out
• 1:57:05
  Speaker 4: and The Giants New York giants G spot, podcast which
• 1:57:10
  Speaker 4: we'll be getting going again at some. Point, MAN i
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 4: KNOW i keep saying that broken, record but it'll. Happen
• 1:57:15
  Speaker 4: that's gonna do.
• 1:57:16
  Speaker 3: It what Au? OH i Have Bar rescue?
• 1:57:18
  Speaker 4: On i'm, like what DO i even have on right?
• 1:57:19
  Speaker 4: NOW i THINK i was sick of sports being on
• 1:57:22
  Speaker 4: MY tv AND i was like. Whatever Paramount plus they
• 1:57:26
  Speaker 4: have a lot of men's programming on, it and it's
• 1:57:28
  Speaker 4: just like a it looks like it's like a bar,
• 1:57:30
  Speaker 4: rescue bar rescue marathon on or something right.
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 3: Now it's an entertaining, show, though what CAN i? SAY
• 1:57:37
  Speaker 3: i like.
• 1:57:37
  Speaker 4: Seeing John tafford just yell at everybody and getting everybody's
• 1:57:41
  Speaker 4: face all, right that's gonna do. IT i appreciate. Everybody,
• 1:57:44
  Speaker 4: Peace Happy. Friday let's kick off the weekend with some.
• 1:57:48
  Speaker 4: Wins but don't you go.
• 1:57:51
  Speaker 1: Quiet don't you fade from the. Flow your name, steal
• 1:57:55
  Speaker 1: mean something to somebody for. Show put the glass.
• 1:57:59
  Speaker 2: Down, baby look at. Me, now.
• 1:58:06
  Speaker 3: Hold, on.
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 2: Hold on nothing, nice, now hold, on hold. On let
• 1:58:19
  Speaker 2: me pull you that long bites, hot but you don't
• 1:58:28
  Speaker 2: get the. Crown hold, on hold
• 1:58:33
  Speaker 3: On stay with me now