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Middle East expert flags 2 'problems' in Trump's Hamas disarmament plan · THE DAILY BRIEF

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: As Israel intensifies its strikes in Gaza, the top diplomat
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  Speaker 1: overseeing the Board of Peace is slamming the deadly attacks
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  Speaker 1: and urging de escalation. ASO says that Nikolai and Ledenov
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  Speaker 1: met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamins Yahu today to discuss
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  Speaker 1: an agreement announced by President Trump last week that would
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  Speaker 1: disomb Hamas and lead to the phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
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  Speaker 2: And while Israel has not publicly responded, one official says
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  Speaker 2: the IDF will not retreat from its current line in Gaza,
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  Speaker 2: and Hamas says it will only comply if Israel halts
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  Speaker 2: its fire. Israeli strikes kill twenty eight people in Gaza
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  Speaker 2: over the weekend. The IDEF says that it was targeting
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  Speaker 2: Hamas commanders. Will officials estimate more than twelve hundred Palestinians
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  Speaker 2: have been killed in Israeli strikes since the October ceasefire.
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  Speaker 2: CNN's Jeremy Diamond joins us now live in Tel Aviv.
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  Speaker 2: So much was made about optimism when this deal was
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  Speaker 2: announced on Friday. A lot of skepticism too, given the players,
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  Speaker 2: specifically that Hamas said that it would laid down its arms.
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  Speaker 2: Now there appears to be a game of chicken in
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  Speaker 2: terms of who blinks first. Jeremy, what are the Israelis saying?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, well, Beyon. On Friday, as you know, when this
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  Speaker 3: agreement was announced and came to light, Hamas started talking
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  Speaker 3: about it in very clear terms where they said, yes,
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  Speaker 3: we've agreed for the first time to this plan that
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  Speaker 3: would see Hamas relinquish their weapons. But at the same
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  Speaker 3: time they also made clear that they were only going
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  Speaker 3: to begin this process of disarming if Israel first carried
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  Speaker 3: out a series of its own obligations under this ceasefire agreement,
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  Speaker 3: namely stopping the near daily Israeli strikes that we have
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  Speaker 3: seen in Gaza since this ceasefire began back in October.
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  Speaker 3: And instead, what we saw from the Israeli military over
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  Speaker 3: the weekend was a very clear ramp up in attacks
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  Speaker 3: on the Gaza Strip. At least twenty eight people were killed,
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  Speaker 3: according to the Palestinian Health Ministry by these Israeli strikes
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  Speaker 3: since President Trump announced this deal in the early hours
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  Speaker 3: of Friday morning local time here, and the Israeli military
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  Speaker 3: said that in these strikes it was targeting Hamas commanders
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  Speaker 3: and militants, including some who were involved in the October
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  Speaker 3: seventh attack on Israel. Today, what we've been seeing is
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  Speaker 3: a diplomatic effort to try and bring Israel back into
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  Speaker 3: compliance with this agreement. Nikolai m Ladanov, the High Representative
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  Speaker 3: for Gaza on the Board of Peace, who works very
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  Speaker 3: closely with the US administration, he met with the Israeli
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  Speaker 3: Prime Minister today and I'm told by a source that
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  Speaker 3: Maladanov was there to speak to the Prime Minister about
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  Speaker 3: implementing this deal going forward, and included in that was
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  Speaker 3: a request for him to stop these Israeli strikes that
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  Speaker 3: we have been seeing in Gaza.
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  Speaker 2: Now.
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  Speaker 3: It's important to note that we haven't seen any additional
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  Speaker 3: strikes in Gaza since yesterday evening, and so the question
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  Speaker 3: is was this ramp up something that the Israelis were
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  Speaker 3: doing in order to carry out several additional strikes before
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  Speaker 3: they would agree to the halts that the US and
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  Speaker 3: the Board of Peace are asking them to, or is
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  Speaker 3: this simply more of Israel defying this ceasefire agreement going forward.
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  Speaker 3: We will get the answer to that in the days
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  Speaker 3: and weeks ahead, But it is important to note that
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  Speaker 3: Amid this meeting between the Prime Minister and Nikolai m Ladanov,
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  Speaker 3: the High Representative for Gaza. An Israeli official told reporters
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  Speaker 3: today that Israel would continue to thwart any threats that
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  Speaker 3: it sees in Gaza, and also that Israel would not
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  Speaker 3: withdraw from the current yellow line, meaning where the yellow
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  Speaker 3: line stands now after Israel seesed additional territory beyond what
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  Speaker 3: was agreed to in that October ceasefire agreement. So a
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  Speaker 3: very very delicate situation and one that US and Board
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  Speaker 3: of Peace officials anticipated would be quite difficult. Even after
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  Speaker 3: securing this agreement with Hamas following months and months negotiations.
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  Speaker 3: They know that what lies ahead is going to be
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  Speaker 3: even more difficult, even trickier to accomplish. But that is
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  Speaker 3: a task at hand.
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  Speaker 2: Be honest, Jeremy Diamond in Tel aviy for us, Thank you.
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  Speaker 1: Right, Let's say close to look at the situation in
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  Speaker 1: Gaza with gaith Ala Maudi, He's a senior fellow at
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  Speaker 1: the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He's been an
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  Speaker 1: advisor to Palatinian President man with a Bass and former
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  Speaker 1: and is a former Palestinian negotiator and joins us live
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  Speaker 1: now from Washington, d C. Thank you so much for
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  Speaker 1: being with us. So just talk to us about where
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  Speaker 1: things go from here, because we have a situation whereby
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  Speaker 1: Harmas is only agreeing to to some if, of course,
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  Speaker 1: Israel stops any sort of future additional strikes, and at
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  Speaker 1: the same time the Israeli military essentially saying they're not
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  Speaker 1: going to withdraw from Gaza at all unless Hermas disarm.
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  Speaker 1: So where do things go from here? I mean, this
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  Speaker 1: is a very sort of tricky, complicated thing to achieve here.
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  Speaker 4: I mean, let me start maybe with the positive. I
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  Speaker 4: think the agreement itself is significant because the whole process
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  Speaker 4: since signing the ceasefire last October has been stuck. So
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  Speaker 4: this is injecting some diplomatic energy. However, we have two
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  Speaker 4: sets of problems here. The first set is, frankly, neither
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  Speaker 4: Israel nor Hamas want to implement their part, so how
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  Speaker 4: can you diplomatically push them in that direction. The second
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  Speaker 4: set of problems is, even if there's diplomatic will, the
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  Speaker 4: reality on the ground just doesn't yet support implementation of this.
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  Speaker 4: You know, the deal asks for an international force to
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  Speaker 4: come in. The only number we have right now is
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  Speaker 4: two hundred, that's meaningless, but more importantly, it asks for
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  Speaker 4: five thousand Palestinian soldiers to come in, and none of
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  Speaker 4: those soldiers has yet been recruited or trained. So we
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  Speaker 4: have a lot of challenges, but at least we see
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  Speaker 4: movement where just a few days ago things were completely stuck.
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  Speaker 2: Kath, it's I guess a bit refreshing to start the
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  Speaker 2: show with some optimism. Typically that comes from zain In myself,
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  Speaker 2: but it's great that it's coming from a guest who
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  Speaker 2: knows more of these players than even we do here
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  Speaker 2: or as it relates to what you just mentioned, and
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  Speaker 2: that is the international force that at some point would
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  Speaker 2: be coming in in overseeing affairs in Gaza. It has
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  Speaker 2: long been understood that they would never agree to something
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  Speaker 2: like this in most of these would be Arab and
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  Speaker 2: Muslim countries that would be sending their peacekeepers unless Hamas
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  Speaker 2: disarms as well. So where is their position in all
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  Speaker 2: of this? Has anything changed on that front?
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  Speaker 4: Not really. I mean when I talk about two hundred
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  Speaker 4: people committed, they're mainly from Morocco, and if you look
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  Speaker 4: at the details, they actually are saying, yes, we're committing,
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  Speaker 4: but we're not going to go in and disarm Hamas,
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  Speaker 4: we might stay around the parameter, etc. So this is
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  Speaker 4: all maybe diplomatic speak, but unless we see a real
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  Speaker 4: progress on Hamas disarmament, it's very hard to see how
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  Speaker 4: any external actors will come in. On the other hand,
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  Speaker 4: Hamas is saying we're willing to disarm, but Israel has
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  Speaker 4: to meet its or obligations, and Habaz knows that Israel
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  Speaker 4: right now is an election season. They're going to have
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  Speaker 4: an election I think October twenty seventh, and unlikely to
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  Speaker 4: move on any of these fronts. This is where I
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  Speaker 4: think today the meeting that Ladinov, the Board of Peace Envoy,
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  Speaker 4: with the Tanyahu is very important because we need to
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  Speaker 4: see sustained pressure on the Israelis to do their part,
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  Speaker 4: but also on Hamas, and pressure on Hamaz has to
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  Speaker 4: come through pressuring their supporters, mainly in Qatar and the Turkey.
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  Speaker 4: So a lot of complicated diplomacy ahead of us.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, it's interesting because you answered my next question,
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  Speaker 1: but I'd like you to expand because this idea of
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  Speaker 1: sort of pressuring the Israelis to do their part is,
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  Speaker 1: as you point out, going to be very difficult given
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  Speaker 1: that it's an election season for israel An election in October.
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  Speaker 1: Nataniahupa is a tough re election battle. He's supposed to
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  Speaker 1: be the sort of security prime minister. And also there's
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  Speaker 1: going to be a lot of pressure within Israel from
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  Speaker 1: his right wing coalition polties who really want to make
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  Speaker 1: sure that the pressure is kept up on har Mass
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  Speaker 1: and of course on Heswela as well. So how does
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  Speaker 1: that resolve itself.
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  Speaker 4: It's hard to see how it resolves itself, partly because
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  Speaker 4: it's not only by the way the right wing members
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  Speaker 4: of his coalition. Just a few minutes ago two of
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  Speaker 4: their ministers said they want to revote on this issue.
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  Speaker 4: So we're seeing that pressure, but also his opposition, I
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  Speaker 4: mean his key opposition figure, Gaddy Eisenkott, political moderate but
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  Speaker 4: security hawk, came out against it and said this is
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  Speaker 4: going to keep Hamas in power. Now lata Yah who
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  Speaker 4: though you know, this is one set of pressures, but
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  Speaker 4: the other set of pressures is coming from the President
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  Speaker 4: Trump because Natania who just does not want to say
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  Speaker 4: no to President Trump, he does not want to go
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  Speaker 4: on his back side. Yes, President Trump's popularity in Israel
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  Speaker 4: has diminished recently, Yet for the Lataia who there's a
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  Speaker 4: lot of political costs in going for that fight. I
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  Speaker 4: suspect what we would see Natania who trying to thread
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  Speaker 4: the needle. I mean uncharacteristically, by the way, Natania who
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  Speaker 4: has said nothing as yet about this directly, He's going
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  Speaker 4: to try to thread the needle, hoping that Hamas would
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  Speaker 4: save him by doing something outrageous and maybe excusing any
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  Speaker 4: of his actions.
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  Speaker 2: Well, let's see who I don't think has said anything
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  Speaker 2: after President Trump seemingly put words in his mouth, surprising
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  Speaker 2: him with that announcement over the weekend that the United
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  Speaker 2: States would not be attacking Iran, even though it did
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  Speaker 2: seem as though Israel at least was planning that the
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  Speaker 2: United States would. But as it relates to Gaza, what
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  Speaker 2: we've seen from this administration time and time again are
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  Speaker 2: sort of these big announcements, a lot of optimism surrounding them.
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  Speaker 1: And not much follow up.
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  Speaker 2: What do you expect to see now to make sure
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  Speaker 2: that this case, perhaps as an outlier, does it need
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  Speaker 2: to be the appointment of one point person who will
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  Speaker 2: be in charge of all of this, because between Israel
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  Speaker 2: and Hamas, I can't imagine you think this is going
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  Speaker 2: to work itself out between them.
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  Speaker 4: Absolutely, you need an American, senior American who who is
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  Speaker 4: fully in charge of following the day today implementation of
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  Speaker 4: this today. We don't have anyone like this in the
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  Speaker 4: US system. Yes you have Steve Woodkoff, but he's very spridic.
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  Speaker 4: You really someone who's doing it day to day because
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  Speaker 4: without that, you know, I have a lot of respect
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  Speaker 4: for nikola Im Ladinov. He is probably one of the
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  Speaker 4: most accomplished diplomats I have ever dealt with. Yet without
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  Speaker 4: having clear direct American support, there's only so much Ladinov
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  Speaker 4: can do. So if we don't have an American in charge,
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  Speaker 4: it's hard to see how this is going to continue.
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  Speaker 4: And by the way, this is not only a problem
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  Speaker 4: when it comes to Gaza. I mean I think there's
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  Speaker 4: a larger image problem for the US and the region.
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  Speaker 4: Big announcement, no follow through. If we don't follow through
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  Speaker 4: on this one, I fear that the American standing and
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  Speaker 4: effectiveness in the whole region will further diminish.