Latest / The Financial Exchange Show / Is the S&P 500 inflated because investors forgot fundamentals?
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- 1:07Speaker 1: exchange with Chuck Zutta and Paul Lane.
- 1:12Speaker 2: Our two of the financial exchange, Chuck, Paul and Tucker,
- 1:14Speaker 2: and we got markets just kind of not knowing what
- 1:18Speaker 2: the heck they're doing at the moment. So the S
- 1:20Speaker 2: and P five hundred day opened at fifty nine forty,
- 1:23Speaker 2: which was up twenty three points from yesterday. It promptly
- 1:28Speaker 2: fell forty points to be down thirteen. It then went
- 1:33Speaker 2: up another thirty points to be up about you know,
- 1:36Speaker 2: twelve or thirteen, then fell another forty points again, went
- 1:40Speaker 2: up another thirty points, down, another forty up fifty, and
- 1:44Speaker 2: as we sit here at this very moment, the S
- 1:46Speaker 2: and P's up sixteen, but it's been basically moving three
- 1:49Speaker 2: quarters of a percent every twenty minutes or so and
- 1:53Speaker 2: doesn't have any idea what it wants to do. It's
- 1:56Speaker 2: just kind of flopping around there like do I go up?
- 1:59Speaker 2: Do I go down? And it is not really finding
- 2:02Speaker 2: stability anywhere. At the moment, the Dow is up three
- 2:05Speaker 2: hundred and fifty three points, so that's been consistently up,
- 2:08Speaker 2: but the Nasdaq still off seventy five points right now,
- 2:11Speaker 2: down about four tenths of a percent. Tenure US Treasury
- 2:15Speaker 2: is flat at four point fourh eight percent. We've got
- 2:18Speaker 2: oil today up a dollar twenty seven a barrel to
- 2:20Speaker 2: seventy dollars and two cents for West Texas intermediate tripa
- 2:24Speaker 2: national average for gas prices down three tents of ascent,
- 2:27Speaker 2: reversing yesterday's move back down to three oh six and
- 2:30Speaker 2: three tenths of ascent. And we've got gold today up
- 2:33Speaker 2: eighteen seventy an ounce twenty six seventy and forty cents. Paul,
- 2:37Speaker 2: anything catching your eye in markets this morning?
- 2:41Speaker 3: No, I think you hit on some of the major
- 2:43Speaker 3: pieces there, Chuck.
- 2:44Speaker 2: So we've got that going on. Uh, and let's see, Yeah,
- 2:48Speaker 2: I guess we'll get right into Actually, no, we got
- 2:50Speaker 2: just a couple pieces of economic data from this morning.
- 2:52Speaker 2: I want to cover JABOS claims. Initial claims came and
- 2:55Speaker 2: muted again two hundred and thirteen thousand, down from two nineteen.
- 2:58Speaker 2: A little bit of a jump up in continuing jobless
- 3:00Speaker 2: claims from one point eight seven million to one point
- 3:03Speaker 2: nine to one So a little bit of movement up there,
- 3:06Speaker 2: but hard to tell what's going on because the seasonal
- 3:09Speaker 2: adjustment was responsible for most of that. So I'm not
- 3:11Speaker 2: sure there's anything meaningful when it comes to those continuing claims.
- 3:17Speaker 2: We also got existing home sales earlier this morning at
- 3:20Speaker 2: ten am, I got an alert from who was it?
- 3:25Speaker 2: Was it CNBC? Yeah, I got an alert from CNBC
- 3:28Speaker 2: saying that the initials saying that existing home sales surged.
- 3:32Speaker 2: They went up to three point nine to six million,
- 3:34Speaker 2: which is still one of the lowest numbers we've seen
- 3:36Speaker 2: in the last i don't know, twenty thirty years from
- 3:39Speaker 2: three point eight three million. So yeah, they moved up
- 3:41Speaker 2: a little bit in October. I'm not convinced that there's
- 3:45Speaker 2: any there there, and that's basically what we have from
- 3:49Speaker 2: a data perspective. This brings us to this piece from
- 3:54Speaker 2: market Watch. It's a piece and it's title the S
- 4:00Speaker 2: and P five hundred is inflated by twenty five percent
- 4:02Speaker 2: because investors won't focus on fundamentals, Paul. They just won't
- 4:07Speaker 2: do it. They're paying attention to other stuff. Why won't
- 4:11Speaker 2: they pay attention to the fundamentals.
- 4:13Speaker 3: Yes, this is referencing the price to earnings ratio that
- 4:18Speaker 3: we often talk about and many economists out there relative
- 4:23Speaker 3: way to assess what the economy or what the S
- 4:26Speaker 3: and P. Five hundred is training at as a major
- 4:28Speaker 3: benchmark to where it has been historically. And they point
- 4:31Speaker 3: out in this piece, you've had a stock market that
- 4:34Speaker 3: has risen significantly over the last two calendar years, but
- 4:38Speaker 3: we haven't had the prerequisite earnings growth that matches that
- 4:41Speaker 3: increase in valuations. It kind of goes all over the
- 4:46Speaker 3: map here. It's a little hard to follow this whole piece,
- 4:50Speaker 3: but largely the takeaway is that, yeah, the market is
- 4:54Speaker 3: really expensive right now. And the other point it makes
- 4:57Speaker 3: is that typically you have value expanding when interest rates
- 5:02Speaker 3: come down. We've had that opposite effect here where interust
- 5:05Speaker 3: rates have gone up over the last couple of years,
- 5:07Speaker 3: but yet you still have had multiple expansion or the
- 5:10Speaker 3: increase of valuations of US companies.
- 5:13Speaker 2: So valuations, though they're only one story in markets, remember
- 5:19Speaker 2: that the reason why anyone buys or sells the stock
- 5:21Speaker 2: is because of a story. It No one buys or
- 5:25Speaker 2: sells a stock just because of a number. They buy
- 5:29Speaker 2: it because of what that number tells them. And there's
- 5:32Speaker 2: all different numbers that you can use, and sometimes they
- 5:35Speaker 2: buy it not even because of a number, but just
- 5:37Speaker 2: because of you know, some story you think of, you know,
- 5:40Speaker 2: all the times when we get headlines that come out
- 5:43Speaker 2: think about you know, hey, you know, new drug approved
- 5:48Speaker 2: for company X y Z, and people buy the stock
- 5:51Speaker 2: because of it, because of the story of what that means.
- 5:54Speaker 2: Fundamentals are just one story when it comes to stocks.
- 5:58Speaker 2: I'm not saying that they're a good or bad one,
- 6:00Speaker 2: but they're one that investors can pay attention to. But
- 6:03Speaker 2: there are others. So it always kind of gets me.
- 6:06Speaker 2: Is like sour grapes when people are like, well, this
- 6:08Speaker 2: market is just not behaving in line with the fundamentals. Well, okay,
- 6:13Speaker 2: why does it have to, Like is Paul, what, what's
- 6:17Speaker 2: the rule about market fundamentals? How does it work that
- 6:21Speaker 2: they have to The reason that people do that is
- 6:24Speaker 2: because there's this expectation out there that reversion to the
- 6:28Speaker 2: average is looming, and that's not necessarily the case. You know,
- 6:32Speaker 2: Sometimes what can happen is new trends can be set.
- 6:35Speaker 2: New price to earnings averages can become the norm. You
- 6:39Speaker 2: can look at the last ten years and average out
- 6:42Speaker 2: the price to earnings ratio. But we may be in
- 6:44Speaker 2: a different time where valuations are going to trade more.
- 6:48Speaker 3: Richly and people could be okay with that. It's that's
- 6:51Speaker 3: the tricky part.
- 6:53Speaker 2: There's no inherent valuation that is right. And remember, in
- 6:57Speaker 2: the short term, valuation is a horrible metric for actually
- 7:01Speaker 2: predicting what the market's gonna do. It may tell you, yes,
- 7:04Speaker 2: things are expensive and if something goes badly, stocks have
- 7:07Speaker 2: more room to fall, but it doesn't help you to
- 7:10Speaker 2: figure out when that fall is gonna be or what's
- 7:12Speaker 2: going to actually trigger it. And so I just I
- 7:16Speaker 2: like to point that out when you get you know,
- 7:17Speaker 2: these pieces talking about well, this market's you know, really expensive.
- 7:21Speaker 2: And I'm not saying that stocks are only gonna go up,
- 7:24Speaker 2: but markets can be expensive for a while. I mean,
- 7:27Speaker 2: look at the tech bubble just as an example, the
- 7:30Speaker 2: tech bubble people were saying was expensive in nineteen ninety
- 7:33Speaker 2: eight didn't pop for two more years. And I'm not
- 7:39Speaker 2: saying buysocks sell stocks that do nothing. I'm just saying
- 7:44Speaker 2: you have to be able to see through all of
- 7:46Speaker 2: this and figure out ultimately, why am I investing in
- 7:50Speaker 2: what I'm investing in, what's my time horizon for that investment,
- 7:55Speaker 2: and if I need money on you know, other time horizons,
- 7:59Speaker 2: do I have a apropriate investments to be able to
- 8:02Speaker 2: access those funds when I need them. Because just looking
- 8:06Speaker 2: at pieces like this, well the the S and P
- 8:08Speaker 2: is inflated by twenty five percent because you know investors
- 8:11Speaker 2: aren't paying attention to the fundamentals. It doesn't tell you
- 8:13Speaker 2: anything about what you should be doing for your specific situation. Yeah,
- 8:18Speaker 2: like if Paul, if there's a twenty five year old
- 8:21Speaker 2: who's dollar cost averaging into their four oh one k,
- 8:24Speaker 2: should this piece mean anything to them?
- 8:26Speaker 1: Oh?
- 8:26Speaker 3: Absolutely not.
- 8:27Speaker 2: No, like it shouldn't. If you've got a seventy five
- 8:31Speaker 2: year old that has all of their money in the
- 8:32Speaker 2: market and is trying to buy a new home next
- 8:36Speaker 2: year with that money, it might mean something to them
- 8:40Speaker 2: because they don't know if there's gonna be you know,
- 8:42Speaker 2: a dip in the next month or year whenever before
- 8:46Speaker 2: they buy that home where that down payment gets eaten up.
- 8:50Speaker 2: But just saying hey, stocks are expensive, well that's not
- 8:53Speaker 2: really enough to do anything. You got to you gotta
- 8:54Speaker 2: give yourself a little bit of personal context on this.
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- 9:24Speaker 4: This segment of The Financial Exchange is brought to you
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- 9:59Speaker 2: As promised for no now Joined by Ivan Drury, the
- 10:01Speaker 2: director of Insights for Edmonds. Ivan, thanks for coming on
- 10:06Speaker 2: with us today and when we talk about the current
- 10:09Speaker 2: state of ev incentives, what incentives are currently in play
- 10:14Speaker 2: for people who are trying to buy an electric vehicle
- 10:18Speaker 2: right now, Hey.
- 10:20Speaker 5: Juck, thanks for having me. When it comes to EV's,
- 10:22Speaker 5: when we look at incentives, I mean, really, you've got
- 10:25Speaker 5: almost everything available. There's cash on the hood, there's subvented aprs,
- 10:31Speaker 5: and what's most popular, though, especially for ones that are
- 10:34Speaker 5: being bought at a dealership, like at a Honda store,
- 10:37Speaker 5: Ford store, things of that nature, leasing, And that's because
- 10:41Speaker 5: you can work around the IRA tax credit limitations on income, battery,
- 10:45Speaker 5: build location, things of that nature. So that seventy five
- 10:48Speaker 5: hundred dollars credit that you hear about is fully available
- 10:51Speaker 5: and almost every single automaker's finance company is utilizing it
- 10:56Speaker 5: to put into addition to any other incentives. When it
- 11:00Speaker 5: comes to a leaf on the.
- 11:01Speaker 2: EV when we talk about that seventy five hundred dollars
- 11:05Speaker 2: tax credit, what indications have we received from the incoming
- 11:09Speaker 2: administration as to what they are going to do with that?
- 11:14Speaker 5: Nothing other than remove it. We've only heard that it's
- 11:17Speaker 5: going away eliminated in some way, shape or form. There's
- 11:21Speaker 5: virtually been nothing indicating that that will be sticking around.
- 11:24Speaker 5: So that's something that we don't know. When it's more
- 11:27Speaker 5: a question of just how many months, how many is
- 11:31Speaker 5: it gonna be a year, you know, things of that nature.
- 11:33Speaker 5: But I definitely won't count on this sticking around late
- 11:36Speaker 5: the next year.
- 11:37Speaker 2: So if someone's nervous about that incentive, about that tax
- 11:41Speaker 2: credit going away, what does the current landscape look like
- 11:45Speaker 2: in terms of trying to squeeze in a purchase before
- 11:49Speaker 2: it goes away. How favorable are some of the deal
- 11:52Speaker 2: dealer deals out there that we're seeing.
- 11:56Speaker 5: Some of these deals are extremely favorable. You have vehicles
- 11:59Speaker 5: that are closer to forty five to fifty k MSRP
- 12:02Speaker 5: for an EV with least monthly payments that are almost
- 12:06Speaker 5: the same as something that has a thirty thousand dollars
- 12:09Speaker 5: lease that's an ice vehicle. So there is so much
- 12:13Speaker 5: money being thrown to them because there's a lot of
- 12:16Speaker 5: them are just sitting on the lots.
- 12:17Speaker 2: Right.
- 12:18Speaker 5: We've tapped out of the early adopters and now you're
- 12:21Speaker 5: looking at mainstream consumers about mainstream concerns, and what's happened
- 12:25Speaker 5: is that they just don't last a lot the way
- 12:27Speaker 5: they used to. You know, the typical days to turn
- 12:29Speaker 5: something close to like eighty days verereaus. The industry average
- 12:32Speaker 5: is close to fifty, and what they have to do
- 12:35Speaker 5: is really pile on incentives and the number one that
- 12:38Speaker 5: really triggers the consumers who have hesitations or never owned
- 12:42Speaker 5: a vehicle. This nature's plicing, right, You're not getting married.
- 12:45Speaker 5: It's like a short term commitment.
- 12:47Speaker 2: When you look at what you're seeing out there, are
- 12:50Speaker 2: you seeing deals that are getting better kind of week
- 12:53Speaker 2: after week as dealers are trying to move these vehicles
- 12:56Speaker 2: off their lots before a year end, or is it
- 12:59Speaker 2: kind of a more static state of play.
- 13:03Speaker 5: It's more like on a monthly basis, because the automakers
- 13:06Speaker 5: every single month, like right after their sales announcement dates.
- 13:09Speaker 5: That's when the institute can do programs. Couple that together
- 13:13Speaker 5: with kind of revising, Hey where are we at for
- 13:15Speaker 5: the entire month? And summer sell down right, and summer's
- 13:18Speaker 5: been well out, But guess what, you still have a
- 13:20Speaker 5: plethor of twenty twenty four Mali year vehicles on dealers' lots.
- 13:24Speaker 5: In general, it's almost like a fifty to fifty mix
- 13:27Speaker 5: of twenty fives and twenty fours. When it comes to evs,
- 13:30Speaker 5: there's still something like three quarters for the vehicle's inventory
- 13:34Speaker 5: is still twenty twenty four Mali year. So really we
- 13:37Speaker 5: do know that unless there is a massive set of
- 13:41Speaker 5: consumers that goes and scoops these up in the next
- 13:44Speaker 5: month and a week or two, you're going to have
- 13:46Speaker 5: these in you know, twenty twenty five. Now, whether or
- 13:48Speaker 5: not that tax credit is gonna be available, you know,
- 13:52Speaker 5: that's debatable. So I think that a lot of people
- 13:54Speaker 5: who are risk adverse exactly, but who just don't want
- 13:58Speaker 5: to roll the dice. And what's the point of waiting
- 14:00Speaker 5: if you were going to buy in two or three
- 14:02Speaker 5: months anyway, just pull ahead that sale to now you know,
- 14:06Speaker 5: you've got selections, you've got incentives. Really, the time is right.
- 14:11Speaker 2: Are there any brands in particular that are seeing more
- 14:15Speaker 2: trouble moving vehicles off their lots and thus offering larger
- 14:19Speaker 2: incentives than others?
- 14:22Speaker 5: It's almost universal. The only brand I can think of
- 14:25Speaker 5: that's not really having to go to these lengths is
- 14:29Speaker 5: Honda's Prologue. Really, it's just one of the newest contenders
- 14:32Speaker 5: out there, and they've had a lot of reservations for them,
- 14:34Speaker 5: so there's not nearly as the high level of aggression
- 14:37Speaker 5: when it comes to incentives. But otherwise you can look
- 14:40Speaker 5: at something like Ford's Lightning Right, great product. I had
- 14:44Speaker 5: a lot of consumers waiting for it. Now they're shuttering
- 14:47Speaker 5: the plant for a few months to try to slow
- 14:49Speaker 5: down that production and to slow down that build up
- 14:52Speaker 5: of inventory. Now you have the GM products, A lot
- 14:55Speaker 5: of those launch with high anticipation, but now they're sitting
- 14:58Speaker 5: on dealers lots longer and longer. Or something like Toyota
- 15:01Speaker 5: where they lost customers to Tesla for over a decade.
- 15:05Speaker 5: Even their EV is just sitting on the dealer's lot.
- 15:09Speaker 5: So it's one of these things where really you had
- 15:11Speaker 5: so much ramp up as far as consumers want to evs,
- 15:15Speaker 5: clamoring for them, and they got their fill. You know,
- 15:18Speaker 5: it was really during that time of reservations and people
- 15:21Speaker 5: almost think I could flip these things in twenty twenty
- 15:23Speaker 5: two and even the US values skyrocketed. But then what happens, Hey,
- 15:29Speaker 5: reality settles in. You know, NSRP cuts left and right,
- 15:32Speaker 5: you send us start crickling in hurts, and other rental
- 15:36Speaker 5: agencies say, look, we can't keep these in our fleet
- 15:38Speaker 5: because they're just not good for our business model. So
- 15:41Speaker 5: they start dumping these vehicles and the used market, you know,
- 15:44Speaker 5: and that has its own effects for everybody who currently
- 15:46Speaker 5: owns an ev So it's it's been quite the ride
- 15:50Speaker 5: with evs. But if you want what now, you're definitely
- 15:54Speaker 5: you're looking at deals virtually everywhere.
- 15:56Speaker 2: Very good, Ivan, appreciate you joining us today. Thank you
- 15:59Speaker 2: so much for the time, and we will catch up
- 16:01Speaker 2: with you soon.
- 16:03Speaker 5: Till next time. Cheers, Huck.
- 16:04Speaker 2: That is Ivan Drury, the director of Insights at Edmunds.
- 16:09Speaker 4: All right, let's do a little bit of trivia here
- 16:11Speaker 4: on the financial looks change on April fifth, nineteen ninety three,
- 16:14Speaker 4: and Video was founded on January twenty second, nineteen ninety nine.
- 16:18Speaker 4: And Video went public at twelve dollars a share in
- 16:21Speaker 4: late two thousand and one, and Vidia joined the S
- 16:24Speaker 4: and P five hundred when it replaced this company that
- 16:27Speaker 4: was going bankrupt due to large scale fraud and corruption.
- 16:31Speaker 4: Trivia question today, which company did in video replace on
- 16:34Speaker 4: the SMP five hundred? Once again, which company did in
- 16:37Speaker 4: video replace on the SMP five hundred? Be the eighth
- 16:42Speaker 4: person today it texts us at six one seven three
- 16:45Speaker 4: six two thirteen eighty five with the correct answer and
- 16:48Speaker 4: win a financial exchange showed T shirt once again. The
- 16:51Speaker 4: eighth correct response to text us at six one, seven, three, six,
- 16:55Speaker 4: two thirteen eighty five will be our winner. See complete
- 16:58Speaker 4: contest rules at Financial Exchange Show dot com.
- 17:03Speaker 2: Paul, do you want to talk a little bit about
- 17:06Speaker 2: Warren Buffett for the next couple of minutes? Or do
- 17:08Speaker 2: you want to talk about Target? Uh?
- 17:10Speaker 3: Let's talk about Target.
- 17:13Speaker 2: What about them? Target?
- 17:16Speaker 3: We covered in yesterday's show had a massive earnings miss.
- 17:19Speaker 3: The stock was off about twenty percent yesterday. They really
- 17:22Speaker 3: were not seeing anything in terms of same sales store
- 17:25Speaker 3: growth versus Walmart, which it had a very strong quarter
- 17:30Speaker 3: with five percent sales growth. And so one of the
- 17:32Speaker 3: things that's come out subsequently after the earnings miss is
- 17:36Speaker 3: that apparently some of the trade import data from Target
- 17:41Speaker 3: is really the main issue behind the earnings miss. That
- 17:46Speaker 3: they had. The US port strikes and the needs to
- 17:49Speaker 3: bring goods ahead of that strike was a reason for
- 17:53Speaker 3: the big earnings miss on Thursday, allegedly according to Target executives,
- 17:57Speaker 3: because of elevated freight costs and ovally stocks stores. I'm
- 18:02Speaker 3: a little skeptical as to how much impact that may
- 18:06Speaker 3: have played on numbers because it was largely sales that
- 18:11Speaker 3: was the issue. But something that they are citing here
- 18:13Speaker 3: as a potential other factor in the biggest earnings myth
- 18:17Speaker 3: that Target has seen in the last two years.
- 18:20Speaker 2: Yeah, it's uh, it's strange that you're citing, hey, we
- 18:23Speaker 2: pulled forward too much supply when the issue, as you noted,
- 18:27Speaker 2: seems to be the demand just didn't show up. And
- 18:31Speaker 2: that's something where we cover this. We touched on this
- 18:35Speaker 2: where look, they're getting the foot traffic same way that
- 18:38Speaker 2: Walmart is, they're just not getting the people converting. And
- 18:42Speaker 2: that doesn't suggest that the issue is, hey, we bought
- 18:45Speaker 2: too much stuff too early. It's no, you're just you're
- 18:48Speaker 2: not seeing the demand for that regardless of when the
- 18:52Speaker 2: purchase is happening. So I I'm skeptical with you, Paul.
- 18:58Speaker 2: I tend to be in agreement on this in that
- 19:01Speaker 2: it it seems like a little bit of excuse making
- 19:03Speaker 2: as opposed to, you know, getting at the core issue
- 19:06Speaker 2: action sales. Tell all, Dow is currently up three hundred
- 19:10Speaker 2: and ninety four points, the smp is up nineteen, and
- 19:13Speaker 2: the Nasdaq still down fifty as it lags behind quick
- 19:17Speaker 2: break Right now, We've got the Trivia Answer next.
- 19:25Speaker 6: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your Radio every day.
- 19:30Speaker 6: It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
- 19:36Speaker 6: Text us at six one seven three six two one
- 19:38Speaker 6: three eighty five with your comments and questions about today's
- 19:41Speaker 6: show and let us know what you think about the
- 19:43Speaker 6: stories we are covering. This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
- 19:49Speaker 4: Trivia question today was which company did in video replace
- 19:53Speaker 4: on the SMP five hundred that'll be Enron. In late
- 19:56Speaker 4: two thousand and one, n run was in the process
- 19:58Speaker 4: of collapsing do years of fraud, and video was on
- 20:02Speaker 4: the rise thanks to a large contract with Microsoft. Winner
- 20:07Speaker 4: today of the Financial Exchange Show T shirt was Bill
- 20:10Speaker 4: from Pembroke, Mass. Congrats to Bill, and we play trivia
- 20:14Speaker 4: every day here on the Financial Exchange See complete contest
- 20:18Speaker 4: rules at Financial Exchange Show dot com.
- 20:21Speaker 2: Paul, We've got a piece in the New York Times
- 20:23Speaker 2: title how retirement rules might change under President Trump, and
- 20:27Speaker 2: there's a few different questions in here that I think
- 20:29Speaker 2: are worth addressing. First one here, what did President Trump
- 20:34Speaker 2: say he wanted to change about individual retirement accounts iras?
- 20:38Speaker 2: Or for one case, the.
- 20:41Speaker 3: Quick and easy on this is not very much Chuck, relatively,
- 20:45Speaker 3: keeping everything the same in place, just criticism of ESG funds,
- 20:50Speaker 3: but nothing that would change the crux of the four
- 20:52Speaker 3: o one k IRA system.
- 20:54Speaker 2: What about required minimum distributions?
- 20:57Speaker 3: No real significant change on requirement just your for those
- 21:01Speaker 3: out there, age seventy three is the required minium distribution
- 21:05Speaker 3: age currently at the moment for those I believe born
- 21:08Speaker 3: after nineteen sixty, that is set to increase to age
- 21:12Speaker 3: seventy five. But there is no changes that President Trump
- 21:17Speaker 3: has made or suggested he would make to the requirementimum
- 21:21Speaker 3: distribution side of things here.
- 21:23Speaker 2: Anything that Congress has been talking about in terms of
- 21:26Speaker 2: potential changes that we should be aware of.
- 21:28Speaker 3: There's something that's mentioned this piece here in the New
- 21:30Speaker 3: York Times check that I don't know if you were familiar,
- 21:32Speaker 3: because I certainly was not. This idea that Congress may
- 21:36Speaker 3: limit the amount of pre tax for four on K
- 21:40Speaker 3: savings that someone could have. So right now, an employee
- 21:44Speaker 3: can contribute roughly nineteen thousand of their own pre tax
- 21:49Speaker 3: money into a four oh one K. If they're under
- 21:51Speaker 3: the age of fifty, it might be nineteen thousand, five
- 21:53Speaker 3: hundred for twenty twenty five. They've mentioned here in this
- 21:56Speaker 3: piece that the first ten thousand of four to one
- 21:59Speaker 3: K savings could be capped as that would be the
- 22:02Speaker 3: most that you could do pre tax, and that nineteen
- 22:05Speaker 3: thousand I alluded to previously, the remaining nine thousand would
- 22:09Speaker 3: have to go into ROTH four to one k, and
- 22:11Speaker 3: that would mean that that nine k would be upfront taxed,
- 22:15Speaker 3: rather than the full nineteen k being tax deductible from
- 22:20Speaker 3: an employee's earnings. I've never heard that mentioned. I find
- 22:24Speaker 3: it unlikely that that would be the case. That seems
- 22:26Speaker 3: like a lot of work for four one K providers,
- 22:29Speaker 3: but an interesting one to note. That would obviously mean
- 22:31Speaker 3: more tax revenue upfront if that were the case.
- 22:34Speaker 2: Yeah. If you want to know why Congress likes the
- 22:37Speaker 2: idea of more WROTH contributions, it's because it gives them
- 22:41Speaker 2: more money to play.
- 22:41Speaker 3: With money no versus money later.
- 22:43Speaker 2: This is why, you know. One of the questions that
- 22:45Speaker 2: I hear from people sometimes is well, look what if
- 22:47Speaker 2: they change the rules about rothey a raised down the road.
- 22:50Speaker 2: And I always go, look, you never know what Congress
- 22:52Speaker 2: will or won't do. But Congress loves WROTH retirement accounts
- 22:57Speaker 2: because it makes people happy, their constituents, because they say, oh,
- 23:01Speaker 2: I'm saving this tax free. You know forever, and it
- 23:04Speaker 2: makes Congress happy because it looks better for the Budget
- 23:07Speaker 2: Office because the tax revenue has received upfront instead of
- 23:10Speaker 2: needing to be deferred thirty forty fifty years to when
- 23:13Speaker 2: people take the money out. So just something that I
- 23:16Speaker 2: like to point out when talking about the topic. But folks,
- 23:19Speaker 2: if you have questions about your retirement accounts or you
- 23:24Speaker 2: know what your retirement may look like going forward, this
- 23:29Speaker 2: is the topic that the Armstrong Advisory Group deals with
- 23:32Speaker 2: every single day. We help retirees make retirement plans and
- 23:37Speaker 2: then go about executing those on a daily, weekly, monthly basis.
- 23:42Speaker 2: It's it's what we do. So to set up a
- 23:45Speaker 2: time to speak with someone from the Armstrong Advisory Group
- 23:48Speaker 2: called eight hundred three nine three for zero zero one.
- 23:53Speaker 2: That number again, it's eight hundred three nine three for
- 23:58Speaker 2: zero zero one. We have offices all throughout the New
- 24:00Speaker 2: England area. We can also chat with you via phone,
- 24:03Speaker 2: via zoom, you name it. We've got ways to chat
- 24:06Speaker 2: with you again. That phone number is eight hundred three
- 24:09Speaker 2: nine three for zero zero one.
- 24:12Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
- 24:15Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
- 24:17Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
- 24:20Speaker 1: your own financial tax into state planning advisors before making
- 24:23Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
- 24:26Speaker 1: advisory services.
- 24:28Speaker 2: Paul Turkey thoughts, yeah, your nay.
- 24:31Speaker 3: I'm a big turkey fan.
- 24:32Speaker 4: Tucker h yes, And I think it's a bad wrap.
- 24:37Speaker 2: It gets a bad wrap. You also have to You
- 24:38Speaker 2: got to cook it right and prepare it right.
- 24:40Speaker 4: That's the biggest thing.
- 24:41Speaker 2: I do think. It's it's an easy bird to dry
- 24:43Speaker 2: out if you're not careful with it. But turkey this year,
- 24:47Speaker 2: not just turkey, but Thanksgiving dinner. Estimates for costs are
- 24:52Speaker 2: down about five percent from last year and nine percent
- 24:55Speaker 2: from twenty twenty two, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.
- 24:59Speaker 2: So the eight that they have, the total cost of
- 25:03Speaker 2: a Thanksgiving meal for ten will be fifty eight dollars
- 25:06Speaker 2: and eight cents this year. Where does it come from?
- 25:09Speaker 2: Sixteen pound turkey, twenty five dollars and sixty seven cents,
- 25:13Speaker 2: twelve ounces of cranberries two dollars and thirty five cents,
- 25:17Speaker 2: three pounds of sweet potatoes. Paul any guesses, Oh god,
- 25:22Speaker 2: two dollars ninety three cents.
- 25:24Speaker 3: Thank you.
- 25:25Speaker 2: I'll let you off the hook on this.
- 25:26Speaker 3: I'm thankful.
- 25:28Speaker 2: Carrots and celery. I don't know, is celery a big
- 25:31Speaker 2: Thanksgiving thing?
- 25:32Speaker 4: Stuffing?
- 25:34Speaker 2: Okay, sure, right, that's fine. But they have stuffing as
- 25:36Speaker 2: another item on the list.
- 25:38Speaker 4: I'm saying that you have to add celery into a
- 25:40Speaker 4: lot of stuffing.
- 25:42Speaker 2: I don't think celery in my stuffing. I'm not a
- 25:44Speaker 2: celery stuffing guy. Eighty four cents there, green peas one
- 25:48Speaker 2: seventy three, two nine inch pieshells three dollars and forty cents.
- 25:52Speaker 2: The stuffing four dollars and eight cents. A dozen dinner
- 25:55Speaker 2: rolls four sixteen, pumpkin pie mix four fifteen. A gallon
- 25:59Speaker 2: of milk? What is one need a gallon of milk
- 26:03Speaker 2: for on Thanksgiving?
- 26:04Speaker 4: You don't wash down your Thanksgiving meal of a giant
- 26:07Speaker 4: glass of milk?
- 26:08Speaker 2: Yeah, we have. Everyone had glass at seven pm after
- 26:11Speaker 2: dinner and then we're just out. That's weird.
- 26:15Speaker 4: I don't know where that maybe the mashed potatoes.
- 26:18Speaker 2: You don't need a gallon.
- 26:19Speaker 4: It's a good amount though.
- 26:21Speaker 2: Besides, they didn't even have regular potatoes on here. They
- 26:23Speaker 2: had sweet potatoes, but not.
- 26:25Speaker 4: Yeah, that's strange they didn't include potatoes.
- 26:28Speaker 2: The gallon of milk is a question mark for me.
- 26:31Speaker 2: The whipped cream dollar eighty one okay, I understand, you
- 26:33Speaker 2: know how that gets used in everything you put it
- 26:35Speaker 2: on the turkey obviously.
- 26:36Speaker 4: Yep.
- 26:37Speaker 2: So this is you know, again, kind of a continuation
- 26:41Speaker 2: of grocery prices, you know, not coming down meaningfully, but
- 26:45Speaker 2: you're seeing some improvement. The big one on this is
- 26:48Speaker 2: that the turkey cost coming down, and so that's where
- 26:52Speaker 2: you're seeing the biggest improvement. A lot of the other
- 26:54Speaker 2: stuff not really moving around too much, but overall that
- 26:59Speaker 2: turkey cost likely to be a little bit cheaper this year.
- 27:02Speaker 2: I can tell you, uh, we already did. We do
- 27:05Speaker 2: a friends giving each year the Saturday before Thanksgiving, so
- 27:08Speaker 2: we already got you know, kind of two saturdays before.
- 27:11Speaker 2: So we got a little bit turkeyed out last weekend.
- 27:14Speaker 2: But I'll tell you if you if you prep that
- 27:16Speaker 2: turkey right, man, you can get a juicy We we
- 27:19Speaker 2: had a twenty four pound bird just because we had
- 27:21Speaker 2: quite a few people and still able to get that
- 27:24Speaker 2: thing nice and juicy if you do it right now.
- 27:26Speaker 4: Correct me if I'm wrong, but you spatchcock you're a turkey, correct,
- 27:29Speaker 4: I don't.
- 27:29Speaker 2: You don't, oh, I thought, I don't. We do.
- 27:32Speaker 4: I guess that's the way to go.
- 27:33Speaker 2: I've done it sometimes, but we do a dry brine,
- 27:36Speaker 2: which is basically you salt it and season it two
- 27:39Speaker 2: days before and that helps to keep like kind of
- 27:41Speaker 2: lock the juices. Yeah, so like for two days you
- 27:45Speaker 2: just you know, basically lock in all those juices and
- 27:48Speaker 2: then pop it in and you're you're good to go.
- 27:51Speaker 2: I mean, look, this thing was again it was this
- 27:52Speaker 2: is the biggest turkey I've ever done, twenty four pounds,
- 27:55Speaker 2: and yeah, it was a good, good sized bird, Like
- 27:58Speaker 2: it was actually almost too big for the pan. And
- 28:02Speaker 2: it was about four hours and twenty minutes at three
- 28:04Speaker 2: twenty five to get that puppy done.
- 28:06Speaker 4: Wow.
- 28:07Speaker 2: Yeah, it was a it was a good one though.
- 28:09Speaker 2: It was one of the best that I've I've had
- 28:12Speaker 2: to this point.
- 28:13Speaker 4: Now, the problem with the people you know and their
- 28:15Speaker 4: beef with turkey, no pun and done is they just
- 28:19Speaker 4: overcook the turkey because everybody's so paranoid about this like
- 28:23Speaker 4: one hundred and sixty five degree thing, where like you're
- 28:26Speaker 4: supposed to pull it at like one fifty eight one
- 28:28Speaker 4: sixty because it's continuing to cook. Yes, and if you
- 28:31Speaker 4: leave it in the oven at one sixty five, well
- 28:32Speaker 4: you overcook your bird and you ruin Thanksgiving.
- 28:35Speaker 2: Exactly. Thank you, Tucker. I appreciate.
- 28:38Speaker 4: Oh it dries me insane with people like no, it's
- 28:40Speaker 4: be won sixty five. I'm like, no, it doesn't still cooks.
- 28:44Speaker 4: Pull that bird and yeah, it's it. Look, trust me,
- 28:49Speaker 4: I get it.
- 28:50Speaker 2: No one's like sitting around like, hey, I'd really like
- 28:52Speaker 2: to get some kind of food borne illness, Like yeah,
- 28:55Speaker 2: that would really ruin Thanksgiving.
- 28:57Speaker 4: Sure, but it's not gonna happen.
- 28:59Speaker 2: It's really really rare that Like the American food safety system,
- 29:03Speaker 2: it's pretty darn good. It's pretty darn good. Uh. The
- 29:07Speaker 2: risk that you do have is thawing your bird out.
- 29:11Speaker 2: Just a reminder, don't thought at room temperature. Do it.
- 29:17Speaker 2: Do it in the fridge when that frozen bird comes back. Yep,
- 29:20Speaker 2: you gotta do for basically every five pounds of bird.
- 29:22Speaker 2: It's another day that you got a thought in the fridge.
- 29:24Speaker 4: Yeah, we had to throw a bird out because somebody
- 29:27Speaker 4: in the household did that once.
- 29:28Speaker 2: Yeah, it's like that's that's where your food born illness
- 29:32Speaker 2: comes from is if you thought outside for a day,
- 29:35Speaker 2: but not outside but just you.
- 29:36Speaker 4: Know, yeah room temp, Yeah, exact room temp.
- 29:39Speaker 2: That's where the problem is, right, It's in that sweet
- 29:41Speaker 2: spot where stuff can grow on it. You know, you
- 29:43Speaker 2: don't want that, but as long as you thaw that
- 29:45Speaker 2: thing in the fridge, keep it in the fridge. American
- 29:48Speaker 2: food safety is generally pretty dark. By the way.
- 29:51Speaker 4: We got a couple of milk defenders on the text
- 29:53Speaker 4: line here milk defenders. Yeah, milk with dessert, duh, and
- 29:57Speaker 4: uh also adding in coffee. Milk with coffee.
- 30:00Speaker 2: You don't need a gallon?
- 30:01Speaker 4: Yeah, maybe like a pint.
- 30:03Speaker 2: You know, I can get milk with dessert if you're
- 30:05Speaker 2: doing you know, if you've got some brownies or cookies
- 30:07Speaker 2: as well, I can support that.
- 30:09Speaker 4: You got the kids, Yeah, there's.
- 30:11Speaker 2: Nothing, It's just that the gallon was the part that
- 30:13Speaker 2: I kind of looked at and went, huh, like we're
- 30:16Speaker 2: we're doing twelve ounces of cranberries, but a gallon of milk. Yeah,
- 30:20Speaker 2: Like the ratio seems off there. That's that's the thing
- 30:23Speaker 2: that's a little bit confusing to me. But it's uh,
- 30:26Speaker 2: look to each their own, Like every family's got their
- 30:28Speaker 2: own stuff that they do and all that. The other
- 30:30Speaker 2: thing that I'm disappointed I don't see on this there's
- 30:33Speaker 2: nothing for the green bean castrole. What gives we never
- 30:36Speaker 2: really have that huge fan huge?
- 30:39Speaker 4: Isn't that the almonds? Isn't that that thing?
- 30:41Speaker 2: Or is that?
- 30:41Speaker 1: No?
- 30:41Speaker 2: No, no, it's got the like the onion strips on top.
- 30:44Speaker 4: Ah right, okay, breadcrumbs yeah, cream mushroom soup. Yeah, we
- 30:48Speaker 4: don't do that.
- 30:48Speaker 2: That's fine. I like it. I'm big fan. Anyways, let's
- 30:51Speaker 2: take a quick break here. When we come back, we'll
- 30:53Speaker 2: do a little bit of stack Roulette.
- 30:56Speaker 1: Miss any of the show ketchup and you're convenience by
- 30:58Speaker 1: visiting Financial Extreme dot com and clicking the on demand icon,
- 31:02Speaker 1: where you'll find all of our interviews and full shows.
- 31:05Speaker 1: This is your home for the latest business and financial
- 31:08Speaker 1: news in New England and around the country. This is
- 31:12Speaker 1: the Financial Exchange Radio Network. Find daily interviews and full
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- 31:25Speaker 1: Radio Network.
- 31:35Speaker 2: All right, Paul, what do you have for me? For
- 31:38Speaker 2: stack Roulette?
- 31:39Speaker 3: Title from a piece in the Wall Street Journal. Here
- 31:41Speaker 3: strippers Christmas gifts and RVs workers push it with company
- 31:45Speaker 3: cars expreends. Fraud runs rampant towards year end here, where
- 31:51Speaker 3: all of the employees at companies that have expense accounts
- 31:54Speaker 3: are looking to stuff in as many receipts as possible
- 31:58Speaker 3: before year end comes about. Previously started in this business
- 32:02Speaker 3: as a kind of a sales assistant and worked at
- 32:05Speaker 3: a firm where the advisors had expense accounts there, and
- 32:09Speaker 3: so part of my job would be to make sure
- 32:12Speaker 3: that they depleted their expense account balance prior to your end.
- 32:15Speaker 3: And we would run into similar predicaments where November would
- 32:19Speaker 3: come around and all of a sudden there would be
- 32:21Speaker 3: a big sum in the expense account, and I would
- 32:23Speaker 3: be in charge of processing all these various receipts out there.
- 32:27Speaker 3: And I won't go into the direct details, but it
- 32:31Speaker 3: did get a little dodgy towards that's what we want
- 32:34Speaker 3: to hear, getting a little dodgy towards the year end
- 32:37Speaker 3: there where there was specific limits on dollar amounts and
- 32:40Speaker 3: how many people were at the meal and names of
- 32:44Speaker 3: clients and things like that, And so I'd often find
- 32:46Speaker 3: myself being the bearer of bad news or just forced
- 32:50Speaker 3: to stuff the receipts in as quickly as possible to
- 32:53Speaker 3: try to get them approved prior to year end. So
- 32:55Speaker 3: that's running everywhere. There's an instance here that's cited in
- 32:58Speaker 3: this Wall Street journal piece where a man who discovered
- 33:02Speaker 3: that a certain strip club was categorized as a restaurant
- 33:04Speaker 3: by his corporate card issuer. He would then use the
- 33:07Speaker 3: company card at the strip club and submit the expense
- 33:10Speaker 3: as a business dinner. There was others ones mentioned out
- 33:14Speaker 3: there where an employee lost their luggage and claimed that
- 33:18Speaker 3: they had nothing to wear, so they decided that sure,
- 33:21Speaker 3: you need to buy a new outfit for this business trick,
- 33:24Speaker 3: but apparently that employee went for designer brands only. And
- 33:27Speaker 3: there's just multiple instances here where a guy bought his
- 33:32Speaker 3: family Christmas presents with the company card that was for
- 33:35Speaker 3: twenty five hundred bucks that he did get fired. And
- 33:38Speaker 3: then others who have tried to tie in vacations to
- 33:41Speaker 3: where they travel for business often as an.
- 33:44Speaker 2: Expense, seems problematic.
- 33:47Speaker 3: Yes, it's estimated that five percent of revenue on average
- 33:53Speaker 3: appears to be tied to expense fraud or costing businesses
- 33:57Speaker 3: five percent of revenue on average.
- 34:00Speaker 2: Did the two of you happen to see that the
- 34:02Speaker 2: McRib is back at McDonald's on December third?
- 34:05Speaker 3: Only because you mentioned it was that on the air
- 34:08Speaker 3: or during break off air. You're very excited about it.
- 34:12Speaker 2: Well, I'm not. I'm not a huge McRib fan. I
- 34:15Speaker 2: stick with what works for me at McDonald's, which is
- 34:17Speaker 2: most of the menu. Again, I love McDonald's as you know,
- 34:24Speaker 2: restaurant like as a thing, but McRib is never really
- 34:27Speaker 2: hit for me. And this year they're doing one other
- 34:32Speaker 2: thing that they've never done before. If you're not a
- 34:36Speaker 2: fan of you know, maybe a half gallon of milk
- 34:38Speaker 2: or a gallon of milk for Thanksgiving. Instead, they're offering
- 34:41Speaker 2: you what's called a whole lot of McRib sauce, which
- 34:44Speaker 2: is a half gallon jug of the McRib sauce perfect
- 34:48Speaker 2: for holiday parties. Festive recipes are the ultimate stocking stuffer
- 34:51Speaker 2: for McRib loofers. I will say that's got to be
- 34:54Speaker 2: a big stock stocking to get, you know, a half
- 34:56Speaker 2: gallon of.
- 34:57Speaker 4: McRib sauce in an industrial size.
- 34:59Speaker 2: You want to make sure it's closed before you put
- 35:01Speaker 2: it in the stocking, otherwise you're not using that stocking again.
- 35:04Speaker 2: But yeah, apparently this is the big thing here, and
- 35:09Speaker 2: so McRib is back in about two weeks now.
- 35:13Speaker 3: McRib sauce right up there with Chick fil A sauce.
- 35:15Speaker 3: I'm totally being sarcastic there. That doesn't seem like there'd
- 35:18Speaker 3: be a ton of demand for that type of sauce.
- 35:20Speaker 3: But maybe I'm wrong because I'm not a big McRib
- 35:23Speaker 3: guy either. McDonald's also announced today that they were going
- 35:27Speaker 3: to extend their five dollars value deals, and they had
- 35:32Speaker 3: done this back in I think the spring or summer
- 35:34Speaker 3: where they're trying to get more value out to customers
- 35:36Speaker 3: boost some sales, and then they also were going to
- 35:39Speaker 3: vote in as to whether or not to extend or
- 35:42Speaker 3: maybe this was just unveil. It was buy one, add
- 35:46Speaker 3: one for a dollar, so basically buy one item and
- 35:49Speaker 3: then be able to add a subsequent item for an
- 35:51Speaker 3: additional dollar dollar to pair with it. So McDonald's really
- 35:54Speaker 3: trying to focus on delivering value to their customers. They
- 35:57Speaker 3: had received a lot of blowback that thing were getting
- 36:00Speaker 3: too pricey relative to what you used to on the
- 36:03Speaker 3: McDonald's experience side of things.
- 36:05Speaker 2: Paul, if you had to get trapped in a fast
- 36:08Speaker 2: food franchise for one month, which one would it be
- 36:12Speaker 2: and why?
- 36:12Speaker 3: I would say probably Chick fil A because I think
- 36:16Speaker 3: it is the best of the class, and I am
- 36:21Speaker 3: probably a bigger chicken sandwich fan than the burgers at
- 36:25Speaker 3: those respective other competitors Burger K McDonald's. Don't get me
- 36:28Speaker 3: along wrong. I love a regular burger, but they don't
- 36:31Speaker 3: really have the same sort of size and substance at
- 36:34Speaker 3: those other ones. And you have just a bunch of
- 36:36Speaker 3: different options that you could work through that are reasonable quality,
- 36:39Speaker 3: and it's pretty clean in there for the most part.
- 36:42Speaker 3: So that would be my pick.
- 36:44Speaker 4: Talker, what about you fast food that I'm sorry twenty
- 36:49Speaker 4: four hours as that were you? So a month a month,
- 36:51Speaker 4: a month, you're stuck in a restaurant, it's like supersize me,
- 36:54Speaker 4: I guess. I guess McDonald's because they offer the most
- 36:57Speaker 4: variety out of all of them. They do have breakfast
- 37:01Speaker 4: that breakfast coffee.
- 37:04Speaker 3: Doesn't really have any breakfast, so I might be out
- 37:06Speaker 3: of I might be eating chicken sandwiches for breakfast coffee.
- 37:11Speaker 4: I don't think they're doing I'm.
- 37:12Speaker 2: Going Wendy's on it personally, they do have breakfast see
- 37:15Speaker 2: McDonald's fan, but Wendy's here. Here's what gives Wendy's the
- 37:18Speaker 2: edge in my opinion. I can if I need something
- 37:21Speaker 2: just to like break things up, I can get a
- 37:23Speaker 2: chili for a meal. I can do a baked potato
- 37:26Speaker 2: for a meal. I can go that route. The other
- 37:29Speaker 2: plus is the one real knock that I have on McDonald's,
- 37:33Speaker 2: same one that everyone else has. The ice cream machines,
- 37:35Speaker 2: break a lot a frosty from Wendy's. It's gonna be there,
- 37:40Speaker 2: It's gonna be there.
- 37:42Speaker 4: It's uh, it looks.
- 37:45Speaker 3: How often do you really have ice cream, Chuck, you're
- 37:47Speaker 3: a healthy eater ice cream?
- 37:48Speaker 2: Yeah, in the summer, at least two or three times
- 37:51Speaker 2: a week.
- 37:53Speaker 5: Uh.
- 37:53Speaker 2: In the winter probably once a week. All right, so
- 37:57Speaker 2: there's summer there. In the summer it can occasionally get out,
- 37:59Speaker 2: like for July week, probably once or twice a day.
- 38:02Speaker 2: But you know, it is what it is. Yeah, whatever,
- 38:07Speaker 2: let's take a quick break. We'll see it tomorrow on
- 38:08Speaker 2: the Financial Exchange