Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 6

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The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 6 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: It's the Favorites presented by FanDuel. Football season is here
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  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the Podcast, the live version if
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  Speaker 1: you're listening to us on AMP the volume in podcast Network.
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  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of The Action Network.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: I am joined as I am for every episode by
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: my co host, my companion Mike Padre might be f
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: f professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Buddy, I can already
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: tell that you're nervous about the fact we are live,
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: because normally you'll be like, Chad, how you doing, buddy,
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: and you've got a little bit of something to say,
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: but you're so nervous that you're gonna get fired for
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: what you're saying on live radio. All you could say
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: was how you doing, Buddy. I actually don't even care
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: if I get fired, but it's more like it might
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: about to just ruin my life. I mean people nowadays,
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: can't you for the simplest things. Chad knows. I think
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: jokes are meant to push boundaries. I go over the
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: line plenty of times and Matt Mitchell luckily cuts most
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: of it out. Now there is no rip chord. I
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: can ask you where your political views are? Are you
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: with scientologist Chad? But I think we can just do
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: sharp calls either way. Nothing's really gonna change from the show.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: I just might if I joke pops in my head,
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: I might repeat it before I actually just say it.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: We're usually I would just say it without thinking, so
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: that will probably the biggest change. Fortunately, producer Matt Mitchell
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: has a pause button. It's like S and L. We've
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: got a seven second delay. I can't do it. We'll
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: do it live. We'll do it lovey. Hey, thanks chat,
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Thanks Bill, O'Reilly. This is the producer Matt. As Chad
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: alluded to. Exciting announcement moving forward, all episodes of The
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  Speaker 1: Favorites will be available live as they record. Our corporate overlords,
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  Speaker 1: play the Favorites on AMP. The show records every Tuesday
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  Speaker 1: and Thursday. Tuesdays, it will record just after one thirty
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  Speaker 1: pm Eastern time, and on Thursday mornings, it will record
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  Speaker 1: just after eleven a m. Eastern Time. Again, that is
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  Speaker 1: Tuesday's at one thirty and Thursdays at eleven a m.
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  Speaker 1: So if you guys want to join us live, that's great.
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  Speaker 1: If you don't care about any of this, the podcast
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  Speaker 1: version normal version of this show will have no changes whatsoever.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: It will be available just about midnight every Tuesday and
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  Speaker 1: Thursday night. Thanks again for listening. I hope to see
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  Speaker 1: a lot of you on our new AMP live feeds.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: And for those of you thinking about betting the Chiefs,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: remember that the Buffalo Bills are America's most popular, best
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  Speaker 1: and most cherished franchise, and I'll be gorging myself on
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  Speaker 1: the tears of Kansas City fans come this time on Monday,
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  Speaker 1: Go Bills. Um. You mentioned sharp calls. Of course we
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: will get the sharp calls in this edition of the
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: Favorite Podcast. Reminder here's the rundown for today. We will
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: try to get closer to finishing our final five, which
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: we will put into the Action Network app, the free
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  Speaker 1: award winning Action Network app on Sunday around noon. You
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: can follow us the Phaves five and the Action Network app.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Simon and I usually call each other after we um
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: do our show Convinced Me, which is all so alive
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: in the Action Network app on Action Network YouTube on
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Twitter at Action Network HQ. So we will get to
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  Speaker 1: our final five. We will get to our big balls
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  Speaker 1: better the week. I got a pretty good feeling. I
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: know what it's going to be, and I'm actually feeling
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  Speaker 1: really good about it. We'll do some scooch Roulette, we'll
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: do our money line, Underdog round Robin parlay, and of
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: course we will start with sharp calls. Hello, who's there?
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: I'm talking telephone right, Yeah, a lot of people are
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  Speaker 1: hoping it's like last week where I'm getting some big bets.
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  Speaker 1: I get big bets from different groups every week, it's
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  Speaker 1: just certain groups where those are the ones that make
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: you pause because you know it's obviously a key position.
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  Speaker 1: So none of those this week. I mean, I got
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  Speaker 1: a couple of games. We're about to talk about where
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: you know, these groups have hit big, but nothing nothing
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  Speaker 1: compared to what that was last week, So that that
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: was just one of those like I really had to
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: take a position because again we talked about Miami and
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: then obviously I learned quickly we were stepping in it
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  Speaker 1: um this week. The biggest one that I think me
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  Speaker 1: and you were going to disagree with them on is
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  Speaker 1: they like the bills. UM, A bunch of different smart
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  Speaker 1: groups of coming on the bills. They love the number,
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  Speaker 1: they think the two and a half's grade number they like.
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  Speaker 1: They still like him at three. UM. It's it's split
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  Speaker 1: though where I know a couple of pros taking up
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: position on my homes, but it's not the extreme of
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: guys taking real money and put it on the bills
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  Speaker 1: right now. So if you're trying to figure out what
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  Speaker 1: side the professionals are on, I would say they feel
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  Speaker 1: better about the bills, where I don't know how Chad feels.
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  Speaker 1: I still feel like the chiefs are gonna be the
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  Speaker 1: right side to take. Like I again, we'll break it down,
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  Speaker 1: but well, let me just get my I'll quickly get
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  Speaker 1: my opinion on this and we will break it down.
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  Speaker 1: But it feels like if we're just looking at these
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: two teams on the if we're just looking at the
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  Speaker 1: number and not the teams, you're automatically playing the inter doctor.
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  Speaker 1: But we'll we'll dig deeper. What's your next one? Yes,
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  Speaker 1: the most caveman level chat his spot on Uh, we
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  Speaker 1: would definitely blindly would just take a home dog um
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  Speaker 1: the next big one. I thought it was no surprise
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  Speaker 1: because we had touched on it. The Saints. I knew Prue,
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  Speaker 1: I knew the Pros are gonna love the Saints in
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  Speaker 1: this position. It's just basically, we think something's wrong with that.
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  Speaker 1: Since the offense we think we think whatever is going
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  Speaker 1: on with Zach Taylor and Joe Burrow just is not
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  Speaker 1: jelling right now. And the Saints team again with Hill
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  Speaker 1: back there, with Andy Dalton, they just feel like they
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: know exactly what they are and he saw this week.
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  Speaker 1: They're getting guys back. I mean, Michael Thomas is back practicing.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: That's big for them getting him back. He's obviously still
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  Speaker 1: does what he does. You watched him earlier in the year.
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  Speaker 1: He gets open. Like again, it doesn't matter how all
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  Speaker 1: these guys get if you can know how to make
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  Speaker 1: and break out of routes. It's such a key thing
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  Speaker 1: so that numbers are fluctuating. I was shocked to see.
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  Speaker 1: I woke up one morning, was it yesterday? It might
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: have been down to plus one and then shot back
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  Speaker 1: up to plus two. And that's back one and a half.
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  Speaker 1: So if thinkly a battle of the pros versus Joe's
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  Speaker 1: on that one and then the next one again no surprise.
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  Speaker 1: I felt like right when the game came out, I
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  Speaker 1: knew that pros were gonna love it and that I
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  Speaker 1: was gonna take a position with him. The Eagles. The
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  Speaker 1: Eagles were down to four and a half. You saw
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  Speaker 1: a really sharp group come in heavy. They took it
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: at the four and a half. They shot it right
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: up to six six and a half. In some books,
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: don't feel as confident at that number. I like it
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  Speaker 1: still right, we still take it there. But I mean
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  Speaker 1: the four and a half, the five and a half
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  Speaker 1: we talked of all the time. That's that's under the sixth,
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  Speaker 1: the key number. That's just a great number. And there
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  Speaker 1: was no surprise. They waited until it was official Cooper
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  Speaker 1: is gonna be the quarterback, and they pounced. So yeahin
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  Speaker 1: those are games real touch on. Um, I'm kind of
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  Speaker 1: out probably on having the Chiefs in our contest. Will
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: see how Chad feels. Um, just because again I know
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: these smart groups. Yeah, nothing crazy money wise, but enough
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  Speaker 1: like six figures better enough on the bills that give
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: me pause. It's like, Okay, clearly this game is more more,
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  Speaker 1: more of a coin flip. And I thought it was
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: taking the plus three with the Chiefs at home. H
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: I should remind people that our foxhole bet was the
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: Saints plus two. Still love it, falling in love with
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: it a little bit more every day. We'll dig it
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  Speaker 1: a little bit deeper. Simon says, what it was Atlanta
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  Speaker 1: plus five and a half, and the exact decision by
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: me was Cleveland minus three. We didn't get any conversations
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: about that, but you and I will dig a little
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: bit deeper on those games. Um, let's start with Atlanta.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: So Atlanta plus five and a half, it's your Simon says,
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  Speaker 1: I really liked it at five and a half. I
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: think the lean for the wise guys might be on
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: the favor here. I think based on the fact that
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: you're getting a Niners defense that isn't just strong against
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: the rush number one against the rush and Atlanta, if
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: there anything, they're a rush dominant offense. And then I
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: think there's some law of averages regression to the mean
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: in play here where there could be concern. Can you
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: keep rolling it over in Atlanta? They're now five and
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: oh against the spread? Is that just going to come
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: back to earth for them? All of that said, I
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: still like it when a five and a half, I
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: just understand why people might have a leaning on the Niners.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: What say you, Simon? I honestly think it's kind of
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: a perfect number. It's like every book knows that every
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Joe Schmo will just throw uh san Fran into a teaser.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Why wouldn't you are a good team look viewed as
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: a top three, top four team right now in the NFC.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: I just think people don't realize how injured they are.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: They just have a lot of injuries on that team.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: Where Yeah, to meet Quitel Patterson's a big deal for Atlanta.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: They're just three new guys in there. Apparently this run
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: scheme works and it doesn't really matter here when you've
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: got a guy like Marioda that can also run with it,
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: that's always taken one defender away that like that's why
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: that read options such a big deal. So I get
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: the pause chat because I guess you're looking for more movement.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: I just think that's a smart number. Um, it touched
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: five and then it bounced back up to five and
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: a half. I have no conviction with Atlanta, Like it's
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: just one. There's a couple of games this week. Um,
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: I just feel like we have no choice and we
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: have to bet, Like there's just certain numbers, like this
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: is one of these few home dogs where it's like,
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: you're right, maybe this should be seven, seven and a
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: half because Atlanta covered last week. It's not just because
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: they're five and oh E T y s it's not.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: But the public isn't actually hammering this number. It's kind
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: of been flipped, um mixed. Depends on the books you
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: go to and look at their numbers. It's spoke between
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: the public and the sharps um sides and tickets. So
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I still like Atlanta, but yeah, am
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: I shocked it's sitting there still five and a half.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Not really just because of the teaser factor. Again, that's
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: just such a big thing at the factor into nowadays
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: where it's like, yeah, they just gonna tease it down
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: to the to the minus half or one or plus
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: one wherever it is, and they'll just take the four
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: hours to win out right. I definitely still like Atlanta
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: plus five and a half? Do I like it as
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: much as some other games? Uh? That will keep it
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: in our final five? I'm not quite sure yet, depends
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: on where the numbers end up midweek. Let's go back
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: to the Saints for a second. I love the Saints
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: here doesn't love them. Here's what's really interesting to me.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: And I was listening to um listening to the Action
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Network podcast with Stucky and Chris Raybon earlier this morning,
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: and they're killing it this year. Uh and stuck. He
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: pointed out that the Bengals this year, their offensive line
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: is so bad that even the guys on the edges
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: who were supposed to be coming in and rebuilt offensive line,
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: are rating out as bottom ten for their position along
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: the offensive line. And while the Saints haven't been getting
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: a lot of pressure, they still have really good defensive ends.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: And if there ever is a game where they could
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: get themselves healthy to start forcing more pressure, it's this game.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: And the other thing that was really interesting to me.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow we all know is amazing against the blitz.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: When he's not getting blitzed, he's a pretty average to
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: below average QB rating, and the Saints are not a
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: blitzing team. So this just feels like schematically a great
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: spot for the Saints, and it feels like a good
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: spot for a team that's now been home for two
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: straight weeks after playing in London, and the Bengals are
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: still getting sort of a post Super Bowl Joe Burrow bounce.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: And it's funnyhen you just read a stalic that It's like,
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: imagine knowing that you have a guy that does really
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: well against the blitz but terrible against just four rushers,
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: and you still can't fix that old line. So teams
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: don't even need to blitz. They can just keep sending
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: four again. Pressure on Joe. Um. Yeah, the Saints one.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: I would say, I really liked it. When I saw
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: the number came out, I knew I was gonna be
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: on it, just because like the Banga should not be
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: favor in this position. This is basically the public decide
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: in the line here. But I don't know, It's like
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: the more the more you read, the more you see
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: of Joe I just feel like they're failing. Like again,
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: another team that's just failed. Like you just talked about
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: the old line. They're probably these guys in but the
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: system is clearly not working, like they're still getting a pressure.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: So yeah, the Saints number, we were obviously hoping to
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: get a better number on it, but plus two is fine.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: Like again, anything above a pick to me is a
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: good number in this matchup. So in our contest, I
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: knew we were probably gonna agree on this and have
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: this one in there. It's just I just feel bad
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: for Joe. It's like this should be, this should just
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: be such a better season. They had the money, they
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: had the capital, they went on and signed the guys
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: for the old line, and here again we're through five weeks.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: It's just not working still. So I'm I'm a hundred
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: done with you that the Saints just felt like me
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: and you were gonna be on no matter what. You're
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: response is so and the look on your face right
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: now and the way you're playing with your hair, it's
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: so filled with anxiety. I'm so like, I felt like
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: you should be saying, yeah, of course this is going
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: to be. This is a no brainer. By the way,
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: all respect. I know Joe Burrow is our teammate on
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: the volume. I don't give a fuck if he's having
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: a hard time. I don't give a fuck if like
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: he's not getting along with Zach Taylor, Like does he
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: care of our numbers tank in this podcast? No, it's
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: a zero sum game. Right now. The Saints are two
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: point underdogs at home with a better scheme and a
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: really good defense and Michael Thomas coming back and Alvin
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: Camara two weeks back and getting healthier. Give me the
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: Saints plus two. That's it. I don't need anxiety. Yeah, well,
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: you're not being crazy money on the minds feel mine is?
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: It feels like it's too easy chat like that. That's
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: my issue here. It's like this feels too easy, and
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: that's you moments. I've increased my units after week four,
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: after we I wasn't even trying to unit. I was
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: just just I just feel like you needed up in
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: a little bit. Uh. I can't ask you can't text
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: my runners say bet this certain amount without him being like,
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: who is this for? Your little brother? Like I needed
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: to be a little more ask any questions. It wasn't
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: even trying to unit him. It was just a simple
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: I can't text on me anount you said, STI you
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: can't shame my unit. Um. Alright, so we love the Saints.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: We still like Atlanta. Uh, let's talk about Cleveland because
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: it's a really interesting matchup. It doesn't make sense to
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: me why this game open to two and a half.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: I've moved up to three. I think it's still the
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: right side. Uh. Cleveland has the best running offense in
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: the NFL. Right Nick Chubb is the best running back.
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: Nick Chubb, his yards after contact would make him the
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: fourth highest total for rushing yards in the NFL. Right now,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: he's leading the league in rushing. He's tied with Sakwon Barkley.
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: But if you took if you only counted his yards
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: after contact fifteen, he'd be fourth in the NFL and rushing.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: The problem with the Browns is they can't play defense.
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: So essentially we liked this game. At least I did.
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: I bet at a two and a half because I
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: was getting two relatively evenly matched teams and I was
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: getting the home team at less than a field goal.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: I still probably let play Cleveland minus three. Yeah, it's
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: again two and a half. I got a no issue
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: with it. Um, I feel like the books are kind
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: of looking at what you just said that if Belichick
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: can run the ball right and control of the clock,
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: just what the exact same thing that Browns want to do.
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: And this number is good, like this game will come
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: down to most likely a field goal. Um, so it is.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: It is is a little worries somewhere. The more you
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: look at this Browns team, that's the glaren thing that
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: pops out as you can run the ball on them.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: And that's kind of what the Patriots need to do
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: with the rookie quarterback starting here on the road. So
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: still the Browns, I'm kind of with each other, Like
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: I would still bet it. How the Patriots dominated Detroit
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: last week in the trenches, what's to say they can't
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: turn around to do that against Cleveland. It's all about
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: Bill taking the ball out of the rookie's hands. And
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: last year with Mac he did as much as he could.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: They made it to the playoffs that way. So it's
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: just he kind of hasn't kind of knows he needs
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: to do with these young quarterbacks and put them in
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: the best positions. But to me, it's just like her
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: said's better than people realize this Browns team has been
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: really good. Again, if you look at them on paper,
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: it could easily five and oh. Every game they've lost,
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: they've lost by the last second field goal or a
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: last second touchdown from Joe Flacco. It's like they kind
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: of had these flutie losses share and they just played tough, tough,
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: tight games. I gotta know, is what you're saying. Check like,
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: I still don't take it. I just know means you're
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: gonna come Sunday and we're just gonna be like, should
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: we take that or should we just take one of
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: these eight point dogs that we like. And that's always
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: the hardest part about doing this. I think we could
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: do both. I'm not letting you get both, I'll tell
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: you that much. Now, start the NFL week off right
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• 21:04
  Speaker 1: One gambler dot net in West Virginia. The Miami Dolphins,
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: they've announced their starting Skyler Thompson. We said earlier in
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: the week we wanted people to wait to take Miami
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: before we saw who the quarterback was. Skyler Thompson gets announced,
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: and also the ping pong tables get removed, which clearly
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins now I mean business. The line shot up
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: to three and a half. As soon as it shot
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: out to three and a half, I bet the Dolphins
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: plus three and a half. Wow. I wish I had
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: the confidence you have. Again, I'll bably end up on this.
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: I'm hoping to get to the four. Um Like the
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: pub will just come in heavy on the Vikings against
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: a third string quarterback, and I'll take that value. I
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: don't know how to cap the game though, because to me,
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: the way they're talking is if is if no matter what, Um,
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: even if Teddy gets healthy, Bridgewater won't I'm gonna be
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: the quarterback. I just feel like he's playing mind games.
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: Like McDaniels just feels like he's playing mind games right
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: now with us in the media and the other team.
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: It's gotta be Teddy, right. If Teddy comes back and
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: he's cleared, they can't just they wouldn't just start that
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: kid that really literally could not really do anything against
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: that Jets team last week. Um, that would be bizarre
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: to me. Again, we like the matchup. The Vikings have
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: done a lot of traveling. They just flow a way
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: back for England, came home, played a game, They're flying
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: down to Florida. They'd be like, we're talking about that,
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: but in the sun for this game. A lot of
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: things where we just like Miami. So I'm kind of
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: with you. Chad, I'll blindly bet this at the number.
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: I'll get it whenever it gets to four through whoever
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: the quarterback is, I just don't know. It's doing of
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: my five biggest bets this week because it's just I
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: don't know, really had to model out this quarterback that
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: I really have no numbers on. Um. It's just it's
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: kind of the tallest up situation here. I will look.
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: I will remind everybody that right now the only game
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: we love, despite you didn't show many enthusiasm for it
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: because you just feel sad for Joe Burrow I do
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: it is the Saints plus two again we love right
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: now again. They talked about that there's a lot that
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: I've got. I've got a list of six, I've got
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: a list of six teens, seven that we haven't talked
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: about yet that we'll get to. But these were like
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: when we talked on Tuesday, I'm going on the list
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: of the games that we loved the most. And this
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: is interesting just how things evolve over the course of
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: the week. So the other one, Eagles minus four and
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: a half. We talked about it. It's now up to
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: six in some places. We both bet it. Eagles minus
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: four and a half. Um. Look, I'm just not a
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: buyer on the Cowboys. They have an amazing defense, but
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: they've beat up during this Cooper Rush rush. They've beat
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: up on a Washington A line that stinks, a Cincinnati
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: O line that stinks, a rams O line that stinks. Okay,
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: that doesn't impress me. Against the Ramps, they had fewer
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: first downs, they had more penalties, They average few yards
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: per play, They had multiple fumbles, they recovered. Cooper Rush
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: completed ten passes. Tony Pollard had a touchdown for fifty
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: seven yards, they had a fumble recovery for a touchdown,
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: and they blocked a punt that they converted into a
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: field goal. Like, this is not a dominant team in
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: any way. The Eagles kind of are a dominant team.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: So I see why the numbers moved from four and
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: a half and higher. I think in the context if
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: we got to play a midweek number of six or
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: six and a half, it makes me a little bit
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: more nervous. But I still think the Eagles win this
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: game pretty handily. Yeah, and again it was no. I
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: was not surprised at all to hear that a bunch
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: of professional groups took a position on the Eagles that
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: that was just a really good number of four and
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: a half. My biggest reason I didn't really move on
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: it was just this Eagles team in the second half.
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: I just it's real like them struggling in the second half.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: It's been five weeks. Every single game they've done it,
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: like they led teams back into these matchups and it's
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: it's definitely an issue. So four and a half I
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: love it, Like I feel like you just talked about
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: six six and a half. You definitely need to think,
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: is there is there value still on this number? Um,
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: I would still bet it, obviously, I still like it,
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: but I was gonna make one of my bigger bets
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: to speak of four and a half. I missed that.
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: So I still love the Eagles, still take a position
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: on them. Don't mind taking the contest either. Even if
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: it's six we could talk about. I wouldn't hate it. Um,
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: it's just it's just unluckily the fact that you know
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys usually their public darlings, I thought the public
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: would be all over them in this position against this
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: Eagles team that had such a bad game last week
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: against Arizona. So it's interesting what you just talked about.
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: Now I'm looking at our site. A lot of the
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: money late has come in heavy on this Eagles team,
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: so they're looking like the public side right now. Saints
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: plus two love it. Let's talk about the Steelers plus
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: eight and a half because could it be? What would be?
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: Is it our big balls better the week? I'll do it,
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: but I'm gonna put it all on you. If you
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: if you if you want me like I stood last
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: week with the Jets in my heart, if you want
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: to stay with the Steelers in your heart, I'll do
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: the big balls. I'm gonna bet them. I just I
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: can't find any logical reason other than the fact that
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: who the hell are the Bucks to be getting in
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: the half against anybody? They just they're just not right
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: right now. Um, But I'll give it to you, Chack.
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: You've got some big balls. Making it your big balls
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: bet because I just this. This Steeler's team looks absolutely
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: broken right now in this spot. Historically, forget about, you know,
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: using the Action Network Action Labs database going back twenty
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: something years, millions of data points, teams in this spot,
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: they get blown out. They're heavy underdogs, and they're getting
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: fewer than thirty of the bets they covered a rate
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: historically right. Want to narrow it down even further, week
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: six dogs off a loss of seven or more covering
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: a week six dogs below against the spread since two
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: thousand five covering. I get it, like it's a bylow spot.
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: I'm a little and you just have to make like
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: you're just pretty. That's that's what makes it, the big
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: balls better the leak it is. It is by definition
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: we have to do. You gotta hold your nose, You've
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: gotta buy load, you gotta sack up. You gotta bet
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: the Steelers a plus eight and a half? Like do
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: you think this takes more balls? Do you think taking
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: the Panthers with a new head coach and a no
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: name at quarterback takes bigger balls? I just think that
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: was the other one I was thinking for our big balls,
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: But like, I just think that it takes much bigger
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: balls to bet a team that looks as bad as
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: the Dealers do to the Panthers at like what is
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: it plus ten right now? To take them against a
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: team that nobody has a lot of faith in in
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: the rams, that has looked really bad. Everybody's going to
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: be on the panthers. That doesn't take balls. I didn't split,
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: but that's fair. Takes balls to bet that it is.
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: And I won't take any of your glory if it hits.
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: This is This is because I am betting, But this
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: is truly Chad's moment. You're taking him as big balls,
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: but this is one where your runner goes man, whoever,
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: whoever you were talking to about that one. That guy,
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: he's got serious, serious courage, not at all. They would
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: all love that bet. That's a bet a bunch of
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: us are probably gonna make this week. I'm just saying
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: it's just one of those where it's like I got nothing.
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: Chad's exactly right, though, this is the spot play. This
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: is a trend play. The numbers back up to like
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: my numbers say, you're getting a good number here, but
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: it's like I have zero faith of going to the
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: window of this one, Like I got no faith going.
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: So what you're saying is you definitely do not want
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: to put this in the contest. Yeah, yeah, I again Sunday,
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: weird happens. I I don't sleep, so through the night
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: it could pop in my head. I can visualize it
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: and see it and be like you know what Chad
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: spot on. We'll throw it in there. But as we
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: sit here on Thursday morning, no, no way, all right,
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: how about Seattle Seahawks plus three? Here we go. That's
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: what I've been waiting on. Love Seattle settle. Yeah, I
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: love the matchup of the Seattle offense. I think Gino
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: is what number three and number four right now in
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: the league in q QBR rating and a bunch of
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: other past metrics. The guys on a roll there, his
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: outside weapons, DK metcalf locket healthy going up against the
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: secondary of the Cardinals that has been absolutely terrible. They
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: give up the thirtieth most receiving yards right now. That's
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: a bad spot for this Cardinals seem to be put in.
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: And yeah, no shock. The public is coming heavy on
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals just because there there are on paper a
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: better team than the Seattle team. But I still think
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: they're just being under a cl team again, a home dog,
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: divisional dog. In this position. The books might be sucking
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: me and chat in We'll pay for it because this
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: this is usually really good to us taking this number
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: in this position. I'm happy to take Seattle on this spot,
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: especially coming off such a brutal non cover last week
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: when they should have covered, because we're getting a little
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: bit of value with just the fact that people lost
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: money on them last week. It doesn't make any sense
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: to me that Arizona is and this this line is
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: down to based off last year though there they made
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: the playoffs at their win total. Yeah, the line, the
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: line is down to two and a half. By the way,
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: it's no longer at three. Still take that two and
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: a half. I agree, Like, it doesn't make any sense
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: to me. You've got a better coach and Pete Carroll
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: right now, as you said, a better quarterback in Geno Smith,
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: better weapons on the edges, a better offensive line, a
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: more explosive passing offense, the second most explosive passing offense,
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: the most explosive passing on it might be number one
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: in the NFL, and the second worst defense in defending
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: explosive past plays in Arizona. Um. Again, if we're playing
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: the blind game, you've got a short home dog in
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: a division game, you're gonna be Seattle yep. And again,
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: it's just there's a bunch of these bets this week.
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: I just felt like I didn't have a choice. That's
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: just automatically you just saw the number. It's like, well,
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: I already know inside I'm gonna be on and then
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: the numbers and the trends back it up and again
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: all the time. That's how you build out these things.
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: You just don't go off one thing. You're looking for
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: all of it connected. And that's definitely one of these
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: spots where Seattle I would love to fade them, um
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: because it's just been insane how good Gino has been.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: But maybe Gino with the right pieces around him, this
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: is who he is. He's not that quarterback we saw
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: with the New York Chets. You know what he's amazing at.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: He is so good at stepping up into the pocket,
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: towing the line of scrimmage, keeping his eyes down field,
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: and finding a guy who's just raised beyond all the coverage.
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: And he's using all of it like he's been using
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: Will Disley is tight end and the DK Metcalf aspect
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: of it, where if he's in any type of trouble
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: and you know what, he needs to just get rid
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: of it on a third down. He's doing something I
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: wish all quarterbacks would do. If you have a big receiver,
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: just throw it to your guy up in the air,
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: he'll either get the ball or he'll bat it down
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: for you. Like that's just that's just that's something I'll
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: never get with these big receivers. Just like, just put
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: your guy in the position to win. And DK has
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: been winning for him, and like that's that's the crazy
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: part by the Seattle team. As much as we praise Russ,
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: it's like he actually make pretty good weapons around him
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: up there in Seattle. It wasn't just all about Russell
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: Wilson these last couple of years. Alright, So, uh, we
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: like Seattle. We like New Orleans as always. Uh, like
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: the Eagles had a good number. We like the Eagles
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: that a good number. We still like Atlanta. But I'm
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: going to bring up a couple more teams. And if
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: I don't bring up the guy at the games that
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: you've liked in the last forty eight hours, Uh, are
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: we liking the Jets against the Packers plus seven? Yes?
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: And still look like I'm at seven, like seven and
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: a half. I mean everyone in the world that's like
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: the you know, the guy that likes to get the
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: clicks and the likes on social media is like, did
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: you know the Green Bay after a loss is ten
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: and oh straight up and TENN S A T S
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: Like I get it. La Fleur bounces back after all
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: these losses. Let's go through this year. They only had
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: one loss the finally week that played against the Bears.
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: Remember what happened in that game, Chad pretty sure fields
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: scored and they would have covered in that game. So
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: I just have a worry now with this green Bay offense.
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: I just don't think it consistent enough to be favored
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: by this many points. On the flip side, I like
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: what the Jets have done, like they they they drafted,
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: well we already talked about I didn't see these kids
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: impacting this early. Sauce Gardner might be a top five
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: corner right now. The guy is legit a shut down corner. Again.
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: You can say it's not a big deal because they
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: don't have any receivers anyway on green Bay. It is
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: though they can just turn them. And there's actly what
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: Green Bay doesn't want to be, which is one dimensional.
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: They're just you have to run the ball. That's gonna
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: be easier to prep for. Weip. On the off sensive side,
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: they have a nice two head of running backs right now.
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: They got Carter, they got the rookie Bryce that they drafted.
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: Um Again, Hal Holding look good the first couple of weeks.
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: If you look at his numbers. Now, this rookie running
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: back for the Jets, he's improved every single week. And
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: that's something we're looking for as this season goes along.
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: Which guys aren't gonna be shook by the league? Which
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: ones are gonna keep improving. That's big for this Jets team.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: They need on identity. So again it's scary back in
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: his Zach Wilson. But at seven and a half, it's
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: still out there. That's seven and a half. Let's grab it.
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: You gotta grab it against the Green Bay team that's
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: just struggled this year. They the only team they really
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: dominated put away was the Bears, and we just touched
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: on it. The Bear is probably showingly lost by seven points.
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: So I think you're goetta good number of this Jets team.
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be a public dog, but come on it. Yeah,
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: I think that we need to as the pre eminent
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: sports betting podcast in the world. You and I need
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: to make a rule un sample size, like, because there
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: are so many Yahoo's out there now who are claiming
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: to be sports betting experts. We're getting Matt Lafloor tenant
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: oh in his career, or we're getting you know, the
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: Packers have done this historically. Like that's all fucking bullshit.
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: Give me a sample size that is at least a
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: hundred games. Give me a sample size that shows consistency
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: during the modern era of football. Don't give me sample
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: sizes that include what the Packers have done in fifty years,
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: or what have happened what has happened in a single
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: season with a single player, Like it's just not big enough.
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: The variance is too high, there's no consistency to those trends. Like,
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: let's just be smart about it. We're not giving you
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: bullshit sample sizes on the favorites. I mean I will
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: if anyone gets has a good sample on its small
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: but it's winning, send it my way. I'm not like Chat.
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: I'll never shoot you away. I just want winners. I'm
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: a fucking pure You are, okay? Uh? Do we like
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: the Jets enough at seven and a half to put
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: them in the contest? I would? Again? Who knows what
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: can change? Again? I think I would too. If I
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: wake up Sunday morning and it's like nine even some
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: of the bets and ninety percent of the tickets around
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: the Jets and it's still sitting there at seven and
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: a half. Yes, people, there's no way Mitchell having our contest.
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: But if it's come down a little bit like again,
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: what I'm hoping to see, which means professional money is
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: coming on the Jets. That's that's what I'm looking for here,
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: because right now I haven't heard that many pros and
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: the Jets it feels like they got their money last
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: two weeks and they're just gonna sit this one out
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: where I think there's still value on fate in the
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: Screen Bay team. I'm so nervous about it. I have
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: my sports book app open right now here in the
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: state of Connecticut where it's legal, and I see the
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: seven and a half and I I'm having a hard
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: time pulling the trigger. This is the moment of truth
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: and I actually can't you know what, I can't do
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: it right now. That's how I feel every week I
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: bet them the Jets. That's just that feeling of the
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: betting legig. It's I'm so uncomfortable doing it right now.
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: But we'll leave it in the contest for now. Um Uh.
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: The other game I think we got to talk about
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: is the Jags against the Yeah, I loved it. We're
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: hoping to get the three. We both betted it two
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: and a half. Again. I was gonna really lay in
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: big money on this one if they got the three
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: and never did. Once again, the pros came in back
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: down to two, back down to one and a half
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: at some books, no surprise. It's just this. This is
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: definition of a pick um game. The Jaguars and the
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: more talented team, what they do well on defense is
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: exactly what the Colts want to do on offense. The
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: Colts want to run the ball. Guess what. The Jags
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: are one of the best run defenses on football this year,
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: So bam, we just turned them into one dimensional Matt
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: Ryan needs to be stepping back passing. That's what you want. Again.
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: The Colds team, they might someone make the playoffs this
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: year because, like, I don't know how they're to two
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: and one. It's one of the more insane things that's
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: happened season, other than the Giants being four and one. Um,
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: I maybe I'm getting blind, like Chad said, maybe we're
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: blind to our Jaguars love. But I know a lot
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: of pros I love this number. I love the right
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: when it came out too. With the Jaguars team that
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: just played terrible last week, should have covered against the Eagles,
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: they didn't write, they had four turnovers. So I do
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: think we're getting a nice by low position here. And
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: the fact that people are betting the Colts just because
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: they won last week and they think they're a better
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: team than the Jaguars is just again that's just the
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: public not really knowing what they're betting on. So I
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: do think we're getting a good number. An automatic playing
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: the contest will be the Jaguars. Yea as usual, Simon.
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: As it comes down to it, we're betting on uh,
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence, Zack Wilson, you know Smith. We're betting on
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: the Saints. We don't know who the fund is playing
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: quarterback there um and uh we like it Land. Uh.
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: We got four that we feel relatively good about. Five
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: we feel relatively good about. Uh. I got one more game.
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: I want to bring up, as I said, the listen
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: names you just read off. That's the list of names
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: you read when someone for the season that contest, right,
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: That's how we've been winning. Just areek quarterbacks. So one
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: more game I want to bring up, and then I
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: do want to talk about the Bills in the chiefs
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: uh Denver Broncos five and a half at the Chargers.
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: I don't know how you don't bet the Broncos here?
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: Do we put it in the contest? I don't know,
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: But the Chargers are not that good of a team
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: and they're getting the benefit of the doubt if everyone
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: loves their roster. Everyone was high on them before the season.
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: The Broncos just consistently playing terribly. But you've got two
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: coaches that you can't count on, and you got about
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: two points two and a half points of value to me.
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: Um in this game, I feel like you have to
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: bet the Broncos. Yeah. I mean, I'm way offer. I
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: made it a way bigger number. Just because Russell Wilson
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: got that surgery this past week. I just can't let
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: that be a no big deal, Like that's a big deal.
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: It's a surgery and he's gonna turn around and play
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: a game seven days later. Um, we saw how a
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: major injury affected Herbert right. He did not look right
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: until a couple of weeks after that injury. It's these
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: guys are human like as much as much crap they
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: want to shoot him up with. That's that's real pain.
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: So I got no position on it. I told you
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: a bunch of guys in the same view as you
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: chat they said, who the hell are the Chargers were
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: getting this many points against the divisional foe. Um, no, no,
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: no read for me on this one. Like I I
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: wanted to bet the Chargers, I'd like to charge it
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: in a simple fact that this Broncos team is kind
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: of real in here. But like you just said, it's
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: it's a hard person to doing right. I really want
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: to take a home favorite, home divisional favorite on a
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: money night game or all the money and all the
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: tickets are coming in on the Chargers. It's just not
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: gonna be a winning side usually for me. But um,
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: we'll be split on that one. Chat. You can take
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: your Broncos. I'll fade them. Um another week, I'll let
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: rust see if you can finally look right. Because as
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: much as people want to blame the surgery, he missed
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: a wide open guy on that slant route to win
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: the game against the Colts last week. That had nothing
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: to do with his shoulder. That was all mental and
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: that's my issue. With him right now. He just seems
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: like he's mentally broken as well. Aren't we all a
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: little bit mentally broken? Sign Now this is me flying
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: high Philly's one on one in the series Eagles five
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: and now, I mean life is good. Uh, last game
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: to talk about and then we still we've we've nailed
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: our big ball. So we gotta do a money line
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: underdog parlay, which there could be many this week because
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: we like so many dogs. Um uh, Chiefs Bills. It's
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: another game. I don't have a strong opinion on it.
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: I might not even better until we get to the game.
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: I took it as soon as the three pots, I
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: took it, but again, Books Limited didn't get anything crazy
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: now maybe five figures. It's like I was, I was
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: hoping there was gonna stay up there for a minute
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: as she was. I took a little taste and a
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: couple of different books. It was even like, I don't know,
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: two hours, the line was back on the two and
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: a half. They know what they have here, the books.
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: The public is gonna be all over the Chiefs again,
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: I said every time every time the Pros went six
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: pernot the time four parsent, the time the public wins.
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: That's my horror support. I'm trying to do a balance
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: act here. I can't always blindly fade the public. I
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: gotta take it like I just I look at this line.
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: It's just like the Chiefs. Mahomes is seven oh one
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: as a as a dog. He's never been a home
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: dog in his entire career. Again, all these, all these reasons,
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: this is why pros like the Bills. Here. They're like,
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: you think the books are just giving you free money. Here,
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: I know they're not, but it's kind of my Homes
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: of the unicorn, like the guy breaks a lot of
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: these rules. Um, I don't know what to do with
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: other than the fact that I again I believe the
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: Bills are the number two best team in the n
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: f C. I've had a coming to the year and
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: all off season I had the Chiefs rated as my
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: number one team, and even when they lost are kill,
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: I still did. It's the simple fact that it's my
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: Homes has had the number against Josh Allen. I know
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen got the best of them last year and
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: then we saw what happened, like the playoffs came around.
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: Wherever the ball lasts, that's who one It's just these
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: guys are very evenly matched. I'm getting dog points at home.
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: We now how hard is to play the Arrowhead. I
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: can't not take the Chiefs. I just like Chad said,
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I can put him in our
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: contest because it's like scary as hell going against Josh Allen.
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: It's it's one of the worst feelings in Miami game.
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: Took a year off my life, like them and how
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: all the thing about the things you need to have
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: for us to cover and win that number against Miami
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: against the Bills, like all that stuff you need to
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: beat Josh Allen. It's just one of those games. Everyone's
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: gonna bet on it, everyone's gonna take a side. We're
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: all gonna kind of washing it with one eyes closed
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: because it's just so painful going against my Homes or
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen. They're just they're simply the best. So no
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: player on the Panthers you don't even want to put
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: that one in think about putting it in, No, because
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: I think the Rams are gonna kill him. The Rams
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: are fucking bad there, all right, you know what, and
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: you love the Panthers coming in. The Panthers are literally
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: it's as if they had two pound tumors on their body.
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: The coach and the quarterback. They cut it off. But
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: against a Rams team that I don't know if you
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: saw the injury report, Cooper Cup bad ankle, Aaron Donald
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: bad ankle, that's huge, Like that's it's say they got
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: four All Stars on their team. That's two of them
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: right there. So just anyone listening, that's something a monitor
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: to me, like, that's a game on Sunday. I don't
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: want people to be shocked at me. And Chad had
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: the Panthers in there. If Cooper's out, automatic play, I
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: don't care who they They can have a freaking trash
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: can literally playing quarterback Carolina, I'll play. It's just whatever
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: to me. Was soon as you take away the only
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: guy that's working right now for the Rams, that's gotta
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: been auto play. But I'm with you, chat like this
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: spot play wise should be the Rams. But funk man,
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: they got a lot of issues, all right, So we'll
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: talk about that one on Sunday. Reminder, you can follow
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: the pics that we uh that we play in the
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: Action Network app. It's for you. It's a word winning
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: download it now follow the phase five. You can follow
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast for our foxhold which is Saints plus two,
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: where Simon says, which is Atlanta plus five and a half.
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: Our exact decision with this which is Cleveland minus three?
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: Are big balls better the week which is Steelers plus
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: eight and a half? Survivor. We decided on Rams on Tuesday. Yeah,
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: maybe we want or Bucks And I got another one
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: from the third in there, Lamar Jackson twelve and oh
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: career against the NFC. If you still got the Ravens,
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: you want to use them here, don't hate it all right?
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: Rams Bucks are Ravens for Survivor. Before we go, we
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: gotta do the money line Underdog parlay. And because we
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: respect our new listeners who are listening live on AMP,
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: someone actually had a question for us about Tennessee, Alabama
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: this weekend, and so we're weighing on that at the end. First, Simon,
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: give us a money line underdog parlay. Dog your dog,
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: your dog blocks dog? First one, no brainer. Everyone knew
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: you would take a Dolphins against the Vikings. Who who
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: the hell of the Dolphins. I don't care if it's
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: a third train or Teddy. If I don't play the
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: number I'm definitely playing the money line, just because this
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: is such a bad spot for a foreign one Vikings
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: team that's a little fraudulent. So I'll take that one
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: of the money line, one of the Jaguars. There's no
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: value there anymore, so I'll just throw it away. Give
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: me the Jets, give me Atlanta, give me the Saints,
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: give me the Seahawks. To me, they're all good dogs.
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: The Chiefs. I really wanted to do it, I'm telling
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: you cha, I'm scared. I feel more comfortable taking the
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: three For some reason. I do taking the money line
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: because I can see this game coming down to a
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: field goal. But every other game I just see how
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: write winners like the Jets one, no one would be
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: shocked if they somehow beat the cream Bay anymore. Like
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: I would say this is crazy me two three weeks ago.
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: But now you just look on paper and it's just
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: like one team is completely going the other way. Um again,
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: years catch up to these teams. We see it all
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: the times. Teams can read rebuilding the drafts while the
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: other team goes the other way. It's a nice look
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: right now with um this Jets team. So I like it.
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: The only one that I'm scared about chat. I would say,
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: is my aim right? We've been a third stringer to
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: win out right, But it's just kind of all of
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: the averages the Vikings team. Does anyone think this team
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: is a twelve and five team? No, that they feel
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: more like a ten and seven, eleven and six kind
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: of teams. So we're gonna try to steal a couple
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: of wins from this Vikings teams. You go along here Miami,
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: the Jets, Atlanta, Saints, Seattle. It's weird to me that
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: you were only able to get barely get five figures down.
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: Not too much on the Chiefs at plus three I got.
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: I got mid five figures down because I told you
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: I haven't my unit size. Uh mid five figures on
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: the Saints A plus two before that never moved. But hey,
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: sometimes we're just playing different games, you know what I'm saying.
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: What's your take on Tennessee Alabama? Mr Simon Hunter, I
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: will tell you right now. Colin Wilson, who co hosts
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: the Big Bets on Campus podcast, everyone should listen to it.
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: UH with our friends Stucky. That's our college podcast. You
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: can watch Stuckey, Colin and uh Brett McMurphy on Saturday
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: Mornings Big Bets on campus college football preview show he likes,
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: and I forgot our Scooter row left, but I'll get
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: to that in a second. Kylin says, this is entirely
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: about Bryce Young and whether or not a players. If
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: he does, it's Bama. If he doesn't, it's the under
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: Tennessee can defend the rush, they can't defend good passing, Simon,
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: But you have a hot take on this. Yeah, it's
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: a no brainer pick. I feel like he should be.
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: He shouldn't even care who was a quarterback for Bama.
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: You just take Bammy here every time. If you got
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: Bama as a seven point favorite, right, and every one
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: of their grandma is coming in heavy on a number
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: that they're hanging without even know whe the quarterback is
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: gonna be, and then they bump it the minus seven
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: and a half for Bama. Come on, you just gotta
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: bet this every time. So I don't. I don't have
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: any type of trends or data backing up taking Bam
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: in the spot. I can tell you in my lifetime,
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: I always win taking Bama in this spot. I mean
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: just last year. Man, I forget if it was it
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: might be. It might have been the SEC championship game,
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: or it might have been. Yeah, I think it was.
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: It was it was Bama Georgia. Georgia was getting a
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: percent of the money, eight percent of the bets. Bama's
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: getting no love. I think Bama beat him by like twenty.
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: Like it's just in these positions you're getting Bama where
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: people are down on them, you're down on Nick Saban,
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: and that the percentage of all the money is coming
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: in a public dog. You just always take Bamma here.
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: So I knew a couple of guys already hit the
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: number at seven with Bama. They still like it at
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: seven and a half. Their their view of it is,
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: you take this up to ten and a half. I'm
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: not saying they think Tennessee or frauds, but that's just
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: kind of the word around the college world right now.
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: It's like it's Tennessee as good as they've looked, or
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: they've just had good matchups against teams that are just
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: not that good. Where we know Obama's there the cream
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: of the crop. You want to do a scooch. Let's
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: do some scooch roulette. When all hope is lost, all
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: that's left is relief. Well, let's play Scots Roulette. I
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: don't want to double dips, so I'll try to do
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: something we haven't done. Give me Seattle. I'll do a
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: beautiful home dog. I don't need the three. I'll take
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: the two and a half for Scooch. All right, I'll
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: take the Saints. I don't need the too. I'll take
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: the one and a half. And then someone knows mean Chad,
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: all the live listeners, we are going head to head tonight.
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: He's taken the Bears. I am on the Commanders. Yeah,
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: I am. I saw a whole report that like a
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: Wentz might have a torn like labor or something like that.
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: I love it. Give me the Commanders. This is this
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: is when you wanted Carson when he's hurt, because he'll
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: just hand the ball off. Hopefully Carson Wentz has a
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: torn labor. Logan Thomas out, Johan Dotson is out. I'm
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: a little nervous about this. For the live listeners, the
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: numbers moved from Bears minus one to Commanders minus one.
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: I worry that sharp money and yeah, and then my fandom,
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: like all the theories we have about betting the Steelers,
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: they also apply to the commanders. So um, I am
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: a little bit worried about it, but you know what,
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: I'll be watching it. And when I turned on the
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: lights for the video to record on Podcast Today, you
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: know what I was thinking. Fucking love football and I
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: wait for Thursday night football and I can't wait for
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: the Bears. And I don't care if it's as bad
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: as last week's game with the Broncos and whoever they played,
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna watch every second of it. Don't forget people,
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: I got live listeners unders when the total is thirty
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: eight or lower since two thousand seven on one toward
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: the under small sample. Chad love small samples, small sample,
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: small irrelevant sample. All right, this has been the favorite
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: podcast from the Volume podcast Network. I am Chad Mollman.
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: He is Simon Hunter for amazing producer Matt Mitchell, who
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: got us live on AMP Today for the first time,
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: as well as managing the rest of the machinery to
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: get the podcast Roland. He is the best. You can
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: download us from Apple Podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you get
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: your podcasts. Leave us a five star review, rate, review, subscribe,
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until next time,
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: I love you,