Latest / Balance of Power / Trump Seeks To Jolt GOP; US Payrolls Miss Forecast
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- 0:02Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios.
- 0:04Speaker 2: Podcasts.
- 0:05Speaker 3: Radio. News.
- 0:09Speaker 4: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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- 0:22Speaker 4: us live on YouTube.
- 0:25Speaker 5: Watching the markets for us on this Jobs Friday.
- 0:27Speaker 6: Thank you so much.
- 0:28Speaker 5: Those markets, of course, taking very little time to react
- 0:31Speaker 5: to the softer than expected nonfarm payrolls report.
- 0:34Speaker 6: Someone who does seem.
- 0:35Speaker 5: To be taking some time to digest the figures, decide
- 0:37Speaker 5: what he wants to say about them, though, is the
- 0:39Speaker 5: president of the United States, who has yet to post
- 0:41Speaker 5: anything on True Social pertaining to the latest economic figures. Instead,
- 0:45Speaker 5: his missives this morning pertain more to things like daylight
- 0:48Speaker 5: savings time and specifically unemployment. getting rid of it, which
- 0:51Speaker 5: he would like the United States Senate to vote on
- 0:53Speaker 5: at their earliest convenience. Maybe we'll hear from the president
- 0:56Speaker 5: about this jobs reporter, the overall state of the economy
- 0:59Speaker 5: when he takes the stage in Mobile, Alabama later this evening.
- 1:02Speaker 5: But we did have the chance to hear from the
- 1:04Speaker 5: National Economic Council director, Kevin Hassett, who joined our colleagues
- 1:07Speaker 5: Danny Berger and Michael McKee on Bloomberg earlier today and
- 1:11Speaker 5: characterized the figures this way.
- 1:13Speaker 7: There's been a lot of news this week that's been very,
- 1:15Speaker 7: very positive. The last jobs report was through the roof.
- 1:18Speaker 7: And it's natural, as you know, to be a little
- 1:20Speaker 7: bit of negative serial correlation, like in a big number
- 1:22Speaker 7: and then you get a slightly smaller number. This jobs
- 1:24Speaker 7: report was just about as expected because one thing that
- 1:28Speaker 7: maybe folks haven't been factoring in is that we've reduced
- 1:31Speaker 7: federal government employment by more than 300,000 workers. And so
- 1:34Speaker 7: like private sector jobs were up a lot. And the
- 1:36Speaker 7: thing that I look for and you and I have
- 1:38Speaker 7: talked about for years is It's just that the construction
- 1:42Speaker 7: of factories, factory construction workers was up about 12,000 this month,
- 1:46Speaker 7: which means it's up 112,000 since President Trump took office.
- 1:49Speaker 7: So think about it, 112,000 people. Like that's what about
- 1:52Speaker 7: the Michigan football stadium? That many people are out there
- 1:55Speaker 7: building factories to create future jobs in the U.S.
- 1:58Speaker 8: And that's about as bullish.
- 1:59Speaker 7: A sign as I've seen for the economy since I've
- 2:00Speaker 7: been watching it.
- 2:02Speaker 9: Keeping that stadium full of jobs in mind, we go
- 2:06Speaker 9: to the North Lawn of the White House. Standing in
- 2:08Speaker 9: the same spot Kevin Hassett was this morning is Bloomberg
- 2:11Speaker 9: Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall.
- 2:14Speaker 1: Tyler, that's a remarkable statement.
- 2:16Speaker 9: The most bullish I've seen for the economy since I've
- 2:20Speaker 9: been watching it. That's the balance of his career. Is
- 2:22Speaker 9: that the statement effectively from the White House today?
- 2:25Speaker 10: At this point, Joe, the NEC director, Kevin Hassett, is
- 2:28Speaker 10: really the only official that we have heard from, though
- 2:31Speaker 10: not surprising, right, considering that this is a White House
- 2:34Speaker 10: that at the moment is trying to convince the American
- 2:36Speaker 10: public to feel good about the economy and about their
- 2:39Speaker 10: prospects going forward as we get closer. to November and
- 2:42Speaker 10: cost of living remains the number one issue for voters
- 2:46Speaker 10: when they do eventually get to the polls. He touted
- 2:49Speaker 10: construction jobs as a whole. He pointed to other positive
- 2:53Speaker 10: data like strong consumer spending that we got earlier this week.
- 2:56Speaker 10: Instead of focusing on that downside surprise, I will mention
- 2:59Speaker 10: our own analysts at Bloomberg Economics talk about how there
- 3:01Speaker 10: are often swings back and forth in the labor market.
- 3:04Speaker 10: The three-month moving average right now for payrolls is at 50,000,
- 3:07Speaker 10: which which represents solid growth but not hot, like we
- 3:12Speaker 10: often hear from the NEC director there. But to your
- 3:16Speaker 10: point at the top of the program, this is causing
- 3:19Speaker 10: traders to pair their bets that there will be a
- 3:21Speaker 10: rate hike at the next FOMC meeting, because Joe and Kayleigh,
- 3:24Speaker 10: that's going to be something President Trump very likely will
- 3:26Speaker 10: weigh in on, considering yesterday he spent a large part
- 3:29Speaker 10: of the day talking about the Fed chair Kevin Hassett
- 3:32Speaker 10: at first saying he disagreed with his unanimous decision of
- 3:36Speaker 10: the FOMC to hike rates the last time they met,
- 3:38Speaker 10: then tempering those comments and saying he wants Kevin Warsh
- 3:42Speaker 10: to do whatever he wants to do.
- 3:45Speaker 5: Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, two key individuals here. And as
- 3:48Speaker 5: you say, Tyler, we did hear from Kevin Hassett on
- 3:51Speaker 5: the jobs report today, but not from the president. What
- 3:53Speaker 5: we have heard from the president about posting victoriously on
- 3:57Speaker 5: True Social is Europe agreeing to release stockpiled diesel and oil,
- 4:03Speaker 5: some hundred million barrels. Tyler, does this fend off a
- 4:07Speaker 5: diesel export ban here in the United States?
- 4:09Speaker 6: The president has openly been teasing.
- 4:12Speaker 10: It does appear that this is part of the pressure
- 4:14Speaker 10: campaign from this White House. We had first reported that
- 4:17Speaker 10: this was happening privately behind the scenes, but then officials
- 4:20Speaker 10: were coming out publicly saying that they wanted to work
- 4:22Speaker 10: with our European allies to get more supply to market.
- 4:25Speaker 10: There's a few important points of context here. This is 100%.
- 4:29Speaker 10: million barrels of oil and diesel reserves among the G7 countries.
- 4:35Speaker 10: We should say that back in March, there was a
- 4:37Speaker 10: coordinated release among the 32 countries that are part of
- 4:40Speaker 10: the International Energy Agency for 400 million barrels. We heard
- 4:44Speaker 10: from the IEA director that only about a third of
- 4:47Speaker 10: that has so far actually reached the market. And people
- 4:51Speaker 10: familiar with the matter tell us here at Bloomberg News
- 4:53Speaker 10: that this release of $ 100 million is part of those
- 4:57Speaker 10: pledged barrels back from March that haven't actually gotten to
- 5:00Speaker 10: market yet. So just an interesting part of this, because
- 5:05Speaker 10: it does appear that this may be part of a
- 5:08Speaker 10: previous commitment that other countries haven't made good on. We
- 5:12Speaker 10: can say that the U.S. did fulfill its commitments as
- 5:14Speaker 10: part of that coordinated release earlier this week, actually.
- 5:20Speaker 6: It just happened.
- 5:21Speaker 10: So a few different threads to pull on here, but
- 5:23Speaker 10: it's very clear that the administration does need more supply
- 5:26Speaker 10: to get to market. We continuously hear that higher diesel
- 5:29Speaker 10: prices today, $ 6. 37 a gallon, those hit the red states
- 5:34Speaker 10: and the rural states particularly hard, as farmers are sounding
- 5:37Speaker 10: the alarm in places where there's really tight Senate races,
- 5:40Speaker 10: like Nebraska and Iowa, with Republicans defending what had been
- 5:44Speaker 10: considered reliably red seats.
- 5:47Speaker 5: Yep, maybe one of the reasons why President Trump will
- 5:49Speaker 5: be visiting Nebraska on Monday after he finishes up in
- 5:52Speaker 5: Alabama today and Ohio tomorrow.
- 5:54Speaker 6: Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall live at the White House. Thank you
- 5:57Speaker 6: so much.
- 5:58Speaker 5: And as we continue to digest the jobs figures from
- 6:00Speaker 5: this morning, we turn now to Kitty Richards, who joins
- 6:03Speaker 5: us from the Groundwork Collaborative, where she's senior fellow. She's
- 6:05Speaker 5: also a former Treasury Department official during the Biden administration.
- 6:09Speaker 5: And she's here with us in our Washington, D.C.
- 6:11Speaker 6: Studio.
- 6:12Speaker 5: Kitty, welcome back to Bloomberg TV and radio. It's nice
- 6:14Speaker 5: to have you, especially on a jobs day. So let's
- 6:17Speaker 5: just begin with your reaction to a softer than expected
- 6:19Speaker 5: twenty nine thousand.
- 6:21Speaker 6: What does it mean?
- 6:22Speaker 11: You know, I think we're sort of seeing a very
- 6:24Speaker 11: stable jobs situation. In some ways, I think expectations were
- 6:29Speaker 11: raised by last month's print, which came in well above expectations.
- 6:33Speaker 6: It was downwardly revised.
- 6:34Speaker 1: It was downwardly revised.
- 6:36Speaker 11: And actually, even at the time, many analysts were saying
- 6:39Speaker 11: this does not seem consistent with what we're seeing in
- 6:42Speaker 11: other markers of the labor market.
- 6:44Speaker 12: And so.
- 6:45Speaker 11: We saw the unemployment rate take up ever so slightly.
- 6:49Speaker 11: We're still kind of trucking along. Labor force participation is
- 6:54Speaker 11: down below where it was.
- 6:56Speaker 6: 18 months ago.
- 6:58Speaker 11: The thing that I think is causing the biggest problem
- 7:01Speaker 11: for families, because 4.2% unemployment rate is pretty good, but
- 7:06Speaker 11: we're seeing real wages continue to decline.
- 7:11Speaker 6: Year over year, we saw wages go up.
- 7:13Speaker 11: By 3%, but that has been significantly less than the
- 7:15Speaker 11: inflation that people are facing at the pump and at
- 7:20Speaker 11: the grocery store. And so I think that's really squeezing families.
- 7:24Speaker 11: We're also seeing consumer confidence is down. Now consumer spending
- 7:30Speaker 11: has continued, though we're seeing rising debt, rising household debt,
- 7:35Speaker 11: rising delinquencies on some of that consumer credit. Families are
- 7:40Speaker 11: still being squeezed. Workers' paychecks aren't keeping up with inflation.
- 7:46Speaker 11: It's a story we've been seeing for a while now.
- 7:48Speaker 9: We heard from Kevin Hassett before you walked in the room,
- 7:51Speaker 9: and it was remarkable to hear him frame all of
- 7:54Speaker 9: this this morning on Bloomberg. He pointed specifically to construction workers,
- 7:58Speaker 9: up 12,000 this month, he says, which means 112,000 since
- 8:01Speaker 9: the president took office. As bullish a sign as I
- 8:07Speaker 9: have seen for the economy since I've been watching it.
- 8:11Speaker 1: Is that how you would describe this?
- 8:13Speaker 11: I am surprised to hear Mr. Hassett describe it in
- 8:18Speaker 11: that way for quite some time. In fact, didn't he
- 8:21Speaker 11: write Dow 36,000 in the early aughts? So he saw
- 8:25Speaker 11: some pretty bullish signs for the economy back then.
- 8:28Speaker 6: Yeah. Obviously, the White.
- 8:31Speaker 11: House is going to spin the jobs numbers as the
- 8:34Speaker 11: greatest thing since sliced bread every month.
- 8:35Speaker 1: Of course, that's his job.
- 8:37Speaker 11: I'll say it's been interesting to observe the degree to
- 8:40Speaker 11: which market reactions and even the way that we talk
- 8:43Speaker 11: about the jobs numbers have really shifted to this world
- 8:47Speaker 11: of primarily thinking about jobs being a little soft, but
- 8:52Speaker 11: not too soft is perfect. great because it means that
- 8:56Speaker 11: the Fed won't keep hiking rates. And so, you know,
- 9:00Speaker 11: I think we saw that reaction throughout the market this morning.
- 9:06Speaker 11: But I think it also points to the degree to
- 9:09Speaker 11: which the stock market has become a little bit decoupled
- 9:12Speaker 11: from consumer expenditures, from the real economy and workers.
- 9:17Speaker 10: And, you.
- 9:20Speaker 6: Piece is part of that, right?
- 9:21Speaker 11: GDP has been really, really driven recently by the AI
- 9:26Speaker 11: build out. That has delivered some jobs. It's not delivering
- 9:31Speaker 11: housing and other things that construction workers could be building.
- 9:34Speaker 11: It's also driving interest rates higher because there's just a
- 9:37Speaker 11: ton of demand.
- 9:37Speaker 1: But aren't they also temporary jobs?
- 9:39Speaker 9: Once the data center is built, we've talked about this, Kaylee,
- 9:41Speaker 9: it takes like 50 people to run this massive plant.
- 9:44Speaker 6: That's exactly right. There's also a.
- 9:47Speaker 11: Lot of upward pressure on debt finance from that.
- 9:53Speaker 6: There's a lot of concern.
- 9:54Speaker 11: About the nesting game that we saw in the housing
- 9:59Speaker 11: market before the financial crisis of different companies loaning each
- 10:03Speaker 11: other money, banks loaning each other money, based on this
- 10:07Speaker 11: AI build-out that right now feels like a boon to GDP,
- 10:11Speaker 11: at least, whether that's actually helping workers or not, is
- 10:14Speaker 11: to be seen. But also, the debt really relies on
- 10:18Speaker 11: these astronomical revenue projections into the future. And if those
- 10:23Speaker 11: don't come true, we might have some significant financial problems.
- 10:27Speaker 10: Boy.
- 10:28Speaker 5: So let's talk more about the Fed, which you raised
- 10:30Speaker 5: the market interpreting a softer print as evidence that the
- 10:33Speaker 5: Fed is maybe less likely to tighten policy next month.
- 10:37Speaker 5: But if I'm the Fed looking at not the headline
- 10:41Speaker 5: payrolls figure, but at the wage figure you were talking about,
- 10:43Speaker 5: where there clearly isn't upward pressure. in wages to the
- 10:46Speaker 5: same extent that there is in overall inflation. Is that
- 10:50Speaker 5: not a sign that maybe you don't need to tighten
- 10:52Speaker 5: policy right now because there is no wage price spiral
- 10:56Speaker 5: in the works right now?
- 10:57Speaker 11: I mean, it's an interesting, you know, we have been
- 10:59Speaker 11: talking about inflation for years now and the question of
- 11:02Speaker 11: the degree to which the wage price spiral was operant
- 11:06Speaker 11: at all during the pandemic supply shocks. I think there
- 11:10Speaker 11: are really big questions about how the Fed should be
- 11:13Speaker 11: thinking about monetary policy. That said, they're in a really
- 11:16Speaker 11: tough position right now because of the kind of chaotic
- 11:19Speaker 11: tariffs and the war in Iran, which are driving up,
- 11:23Speaker 11: as we just heard, diesel prices, which filter through the
- 11:27Speaker 11: rest of the economy. And when you couple that with
- 11:31Speaker 11: Supply shocks don't just drive up prices. They also create
- 11:35Speaker 11: the opportunity for price gouging, for corporations to increase their
- 11:41Speaker 11: profit margin, because it sort of creates like a tiny
- 11:44Speaker 11: little monopoly for everything where there's a supply disruption. And
- 11:48Speaker 11: so we saw that during the pandemic supply disruptions. And
- 11:51Speaker 11: I think that we're going to keep seeing this inflation
- 11:55Speaker 11: driven by all of this chaos. And that is a
- 11:59Speaker 11: difficult thing for the Fed to grapple with.
- 12:01Speaker 9: You know, the administration would argue, and Peter Navarro has
- 12:03Speaker 9: said it on this program, you never hike interest rates
- 12:07Speaker 9: in the face of an energy shock. As long as
- 12:09Speaker 9: we have $ 100 a barrel oils, 650 diesel and so on,
- 12:12Speaker 9: 450 at the gas pump. Is there some truth to that?
- 12:16Speaker 9: No one's going to get relief from the energy prices.
- 12:19Speaker 9: And now consumers are paying more for everything else with
- 12:22Speaker 9: a higher interest rate on top of it?
- 12:24Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean, I probably wouldn't expect the Fed to hike,
- 12:27Speaker 11: given the jobs numbers we're seeing and the inflation numbers
- 12:31Speaker 11: we're seeing.
- 12:31Speaker 6: But the Fed has... had to step.
- 12:35Speaker 11: Away in some ways from the 2% target. And I
- 12:38Speaker 11: know that they're not doing that through forward guidance. And unfortunately,
- 12:42Speaker 11: I think that the administration's attacks on Fed independence also
- 12:46Speaker 11: put the Fed in an uncomfortable position where markets are
- 12:50Speaker 11: looking for reassurance that they are going to continue to
- 12:52Speaker 11: take inflation seriously. and not be motivated by politics, by
- 12:56Speaker 11: the upcoming election, et cetera. And so they're having to
- 13:00Speaker 11: try to signal that firmly while also be careful about
- 13:04Speaker 11: their dual mandate. And as you said, debt is also,
- 13:08Speaker 11: it's squeezing workers and families. Mortgage rates hitting 7%, that
- 13:15Speaker 11: is really tough. And it's also causing problems in the
- 13:19Speaker 11: housing market.
- 13:20Speaker 10: Mm-hmm.
- 13:20Speaker 5: Well, so many of these things are interconnected, obviously. And
- 13:23Speaker 5: to Joe's point on not hiking into an energy shock,
- 13:26Speaker 5: also could end up not being energy in isolation that
- 13:30Speaker 5: is the shock if it's diesel prices that remain at
- 13:32Speaker 5: these elevated levels and that means everything that's loaded onto
- 13:34Speaker 5: a truck or needs to be harvested this harvest season
- 13:38Speaker 5: the cost of that could go up right kitty by
- 13:41Speaker 5: how much what would you expect here so that's very
- 13:44Speaker 5: difficult to predict and it's also difficult to predict the
- 13:47Speaker 5: short-term effects of um some of these measures that are
- 13:51Speaker 5: being taken so It seems as if the Trump administration
- 13:54Speaker 5: was essentially trying to bully Europe into increasing.
- 13:57Speaker 11: Their diesel releases through the threat of an export ban.
- 14:02Speaker 11: All of these things honestly create more chaos and uncertainty.
- 14:07Speaker 11: It's possible that we'll see diesel prices moderate somewhat. But
- 14:12Speaker 11: those diesel prices, as you said, they feed through the
- 14:15Speaker 11: rest of the economy. And another thing that I'm really
- 14:18Speaker 11: concerned about is heating oil prices. And in Europe, they
- 14:22Speaker 11: were really concerned about the export ban because They are
- 14:26Speaker 11: already suffering from the effects of the war in Ukraine
- 14:29Speaker 11: and the disruption to those supplies of natural gas, heating oil,
- 14:33Speaker 11: et cetera. Add in what's going on in the Strait
- 14:36Speaker 11: of Hormuz, and they're really concerned about their own people.
- 14:41Speaker 11: But being bullied into releasing more diesel right now when
- 14:44Speaker 11: winter is coming is a difficult position to be in.
- 14:49Speaker 11: And we have a lot of homes in the Northeast
- 14:52Speaker 11: that are still heated with heating oil, and that's a
- 14:55Speaker 11: big expense for those families.
- 14:56Speaker 9: A lot of people who are watching in New England
- 14:59Speaker 9: and listening on 92.9 in Boston are locking in prices now.
- 15:04Speaker 9: They need to fill the tank now, and heating oil
- 15:07Speaker 9: is essentially diesel.
- 15:08Speaker 1: So this is.
- 15:09Speaker 9: a very real factor for a lot of our audience, Kitty.
- 15:12Speaker 9: It's great to have you back, and we appreciate it.
- 15:14Speaker 9: Happy Jobs Day. Kitty Richards, Senior Fellow at the Groundwork Collaborative,
- 15:17Speaker 9: with us live on Bloomberg TV and radio. Alongside Kaylee Lyons,
- 15:21Speaker 9: I'm Joe Matthew. Thanks for coming along. We'll assemble our
- 15:23Speaker 9: political panel next. Rick Davis and Jeanne Shanzano on the
- 15:26Speaker 9: way in. As we consider the politics of the economy,
- 15:29Speaker 9: the President's travel plans, and news on spending to the midterms.
- 15:33Speaker 1: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
- 15:36Speaker 1: more coming up after this.
- 15:40Speaker 4: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
- 15:44Speaker 4: us live weekdays at noon and 5 p.m. Eastern on
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- 15:59Speaker 5: Here on Balance of Power, we're following the money in
- 16:01Speaker 5: politics as well because, of course, we're in a new quarter.
- 16:04Speaker 5: Happy October 2nd to everyone. And we're getting third quarter
- 16:07Speaker 5: fundraising figures from a number of groups. We told you
- 16:10Speaker 5: yesterday that House Majority PAC, the Democratic main party engine,
- 16:17Speaker 5: in the house raised 230 million dollars last quarter if
- 16:20Speaker 5: you thought that was a big number how's 833 million
- 16:24Speaker 5: dollars that's how much act blue the democratic fundraising organization
- 16:28Speaker 5: says was raised for its party's candidates in the third
- 16:31Speaker 5: quarter now this kind of spans the whole gamut here
- 16:33Speaker 5: joe this is federal races local races as well from
- 16:36Speaker 5: progressives to The bulk of this money, though, was for
- 16:40Speaker 5: federal candidates, some $ 600 million. And ActBlue says this is
- 16:44Speaker 5: a record amount for the midterms. The previous midterm record
- 16:47Speaker 5: was $ 586 million in the second quarter.
- 16:50Speaker 1: Yeah, you can't argue with this late surge.
- 16:53Speaker 9: Federal candidates raised over $ 600 million specifically. That's a more
- 16:56Speaker 9: than 100% increase from the previous quarter. Big halls in
- 17:00Speaker 9: California and New York where we're watching House races, but
- 17:02Speaker 9: also Texas. We can't say enough about the Senate race
- 17:06Speaker 9: there between James Talrico.
- 17:08Speaker 1: And Ken Paxton. Let's play it to the panel.
- 17:11Speaker 9: Rick Davis and Jeannie Shanzano join us on the Friday
- 17:13Speaker 9: edition of Balance of Power. Our Bloomberg Politics contributors, she
- 17:16Speaker 9: is our Democratic analyst. and Democracy Visiting Fellow at Harvard
- 17:19Speaker 9: Kennedy School's Ash Center, Rick, Republican strategist and partner at
- 17:23Speaker 9: Stonecourt Capital. Jeannie, I'll start with you. $ 833 million. Big
- 17:29Speaker 9: news for Democrats. Some would say a dollar short and
- 17:32Speaker 9: a day late here. The fact of the matter is
- 17:34Speaker 9: Republicans have consistently outraised Democrats in this cycle.
- 17:38Speaker 1: What do you make of this?
- 17:41Speaker 6: You're right.
- 17:41Speaker 3: I mean, the advantage on the money has been Republicans,
- 17:45Speaker 3: and that has been, you know, maybe one of the
- 17:48Speaker 3: biggest bright spots they've had in an otherwise pretty so
- 17:51Speaker 3: far difficult cycle. But I think these numbers and you
- 17:55Speaker 3: and Kayleigh just went through them. They show that there
- 17:58Speaker 3: is increasing enthusiasm and also an increasing sense amongst donors,
- 18:04Speaker 3: both big and small, that Democrats can win this election.
- 18:09Speaker 3: Not just the House, maybe the Senate, but also state
- 18:13Speaker 3: and local races across the country. And we're seeing that
- 18:15Speaker 3: enthusiasm at the polls. We've been seeing it in the
- 18:18Speaker 3: off-year elections. We're seeing it in the early voting requests
- 18:22Speaker 3: and early voting numbers. And now we're finally seeing it
- 18:25Speaker 3: in the money.
- 18:27Speaker 1: You know, you're right. It may not be enough.
- 18:29Speaker 3: They maybe would have wanted to have this earlier. But
- 18:32Speaker 3: I think they'll take it as a really good sign
- 18:35Speaker 3: for them that they may be catching up.
- 18:38Speaker 6: Well, it's not earlier.
- 18:39Speaker 5: It's now, Rick Davis, 32 days out from an election.
- 18:42Speaker 5: So 32 days out. What does money buy you?
- 18:46Speaker 2: Well, first of all, I think it's important to note
- 18:48Speaker 2: that not all money is equal. This money goes directly
- 18:51Speaker 2: into campaign campaigns. And Democrats have been outracing Republicans at
- 18:56Speaker 2: the campaign level. They have been getting swamped by money
- 19:00Speaker 2: at the national party level.
- 19:02Speaker 8: Where you can write big checks.
- 19:04Speaker 2: But in this case, this is typical for what this
- 19:07Speaker 2: election cycle has indicated, which is the grassroots donors into
- 19:12Speaker 2: the campaign committees really have a lot more energy on
- 19:17Speaker 2: the part of the Democrats than they do the Republicans.
- 19:20Speaker 2: There's another aspect of this that money isn't equal. Party
- 19:23Speaker 2: committees don't get the discounts on the advertising that a
- 19:28Speaker 2: campaign committee does.
- 19:30Speaker 8: In some cases, it costs.
- 19:31Speaker 2: Four times more dollars to place an ad if you're
- 19:35Speaker 2: a party committee than it does if you're a campaign
- 19:38Speaker 2: committee or an outside group. And so, you know, you
- 19:42Speaker 2: think about that, you know, $ 600 million raised for federal candidates,
- 19:45Speaker 2: that could translate to $ 2. 5 billion worth of TV advertising.
- 19:50Speaker 2: And so is it too late? It's never too late
- 19:53Speaker 2: to get money in a campaign. I can tell you
- 19:55Speaker 2: that for sure. And the last three or four weeks
- 19:58Speaker 2: of this campaign, which we're in now, is going to
- 20:01Speaker 2: be very decisive for Democrats around the country.
- 20:04Speaker 1: Great context, Rick.
- 20:06Speaker 9: The ActBlue chief executive is talking about small dollar democracy
- 20:12Speaker 9: at scale. The average contribution, they processed 19 million donations.
- 20:18Speaker 1: The average amount was $ 44.
- 20:21Speaker 9: Campaigns love talking about this because it sounds grassroots.
- 20:24Speaker 1: Rick, how do you interpret it?
- 20:26Speaker 2: Yeah, no, look, I mean, you know, we've been talking
- 20:28Speaker 2: a lot lately about the energy that the Democrats have
- 20:32Speaker 2: around their vote versus the Republicans. And this is an indication,
- 20:36Speaker 2: as Jeannie said, that you've got a lot of good energy.
- 20:40Speaker 2: If you're writing checks to a candidate, you're more likely
- 20:43Speaker 2: to vote for them than any other test in the
- 20:46Speaker 2: political process. So if you're a get out the vote debate,
- 20:50Speaker 2: and we've been hearing all month about how Republicans have
- 20:52Speaker 2: a better operation to turn out the vote. But Democrats
- 20:56Speaker 2: have some life at their base, and that's indicated by
- 20:59Speaker 2: the amount of money in small dollar donations they're getting.
- 21:02Speaker 2: And so, you know, it's the kind of thing where
- 21:05Speaker 2: you now look at that and say, gee, what would
- 21:07Speaker 2: you rather have, a well-oiled turnout machine that may not
- 21:10Speaker 2: get you out of the bed or a bunch of
- 21:13Speaker 2: motivated donors who will do it on their own?
- 21:17Speaker 5: Well, when we consider where these donors actually are, we've
- 21:20Speaker 5: seen Republican candidates hitting out at Democratic candidates who have
- 21:24Speaker 5: proved to be powerful fundraisers like James Tallarico or John Ossoff, Jeannie,
- 21:28Speaker 5: and said, well, yeah, are those donors actually in the.
- 21:30Speaker 6: States at which they need the votes?
- 21:32Speaker 5: Or is this rich people on the coast pouring money
- 21:35Speaker 5: into races that they would like to see blue?
- 21:37Speaker 6: How much does that matter?
- 21:41Speaker 8: You know, it does matter.
- 21:43Speaker 3: It's a campaign argument that we hear, to your point,
- 21:46Speaker 3: over and over again. But the candidates and the campaigns
- 21:50Speaker 3: will take the money wherever it's coming from. They would
- 21:53Speaker 3: love to have small donors in-state for the reasons that
- 21:57Speaker 3: Rick just described. It indicates that these people will get
- 22:00Speaker 3: out to vote. There's an enthusiasm there. But of course,
- 22:03Speaker 3: when you're talking Democrats potentially competing in a state like Texas—
- 22:09Speaker 3: And being within a margin of error, which now seems
- 22:13Speaker 3: to be a dead heat or race down there, they
- 22:16Speaker 3: will take and need the money. That's also an expensive
- 22:19Speaker 3: media market down there. So it is a campaign argument
- 22:23Speaker 3: that's made. But Tallarico and I see Kayleigh every time
- 22:27Speaker 3: I turn on my Internet, listen to a podcast. He
- 22:30Speaker 3: is on the air asking for requests. And I don't
- 22:33Speaker 3: live in Texas.
- 22:35Speaker 1: Interesting. Boy, isn't that something? Speaker Johnson was out west yesterday.
- 22:39Speaker 9: This week, as we told you, Washington State in California
- 22:41Speaker 9: and Hakeem Jeffries is heading west this weekend to tap
- 22:45Speaker 9: the ATM, a three-day fundraising swing, California and Nevada.
- 22:51Speaker 1: Jeannie, this is interesting.
- 22:52Speaker 9: You've got eight fundraising events with three frontline Democrats. Does
- 22:56Speaker 9: Hakeem Jeffries have the fundraising prowess to make this worth it?
- 23:02Speaker 1: It is worth it.
- 23:03Speaker 3: You know, he has long sort of lived in the
- 23:06Speaker 3: shadow of Nancy Pelosi. It is a long shadow. She
- 23:10Speaker 3: was an amazing leader of the party and the speaker
- 23:13Speaker 3: of the House. But he is coming into his own
- 23:16Speaker 3: and he is out there to prove himself, to prove
- 23:18Speaker 3: that he has what it takes if Democrats win, that
- 23:21Speaker 3: he indeed should be elected speaker of the House. And
- 23:24Speaker 3: a big part of that is going to be, can
- 23:27Speaker 3: he fundraise and help these people win or keep their seats?
- 23:31Speaker 3: And there are a lot of Democrats across the country
- 23:34Speaker 3: who are in tighter than expected races in some cases because,
- 23:38Speaker 3: for instance, of the gerrymandering and other issues that have occurred.
- 23:42Speaker 3: So he is out there and he is going to
- 23:44Speaker 3: do his best to prove he has what it takes
- 23:46Speaker 3: to win, to become speaker, and then to keep them
- 23:49Speaker 3: there in 2028.
- 23:53Speaker 5: Speaking of who has what it takes to win, it
- 23:55Speaker 5: seems that the Senate leadership fund, Rick, is deciding Michael
- 23:57Speaker 5: Watley maybe doesn't have what it takes this cycle. They've
- 24:00Speaker 5: already spent some $ 30 million on his race in North Carolina.
- 24:05Speaker 5: Now they're pulling out and instead sending more than $ 8
- 24:09Speaker 5: million to Kansas. Does that tell you more about Michael
- 24:12Speaker 5: Watley or Roger Marshall, Rick?
- 24:15Speaker 2: It actually tells you a lot about both, and none
- 24:18Speaker 2: of it's good. They're not going to waste any more money.
- 24:21Speaker 2: I think they've already spent close to $ 10 million on Whatley,
- 24:26Speaker 2: and they didn't get their money's worth.
- 24:28Speaker 8: But the fact that.
- 24:29Speaker 2: They have to spend money now in Kansas to save
- 24:32Speaker 2: an incumbent or create a chance to is remarkable. I mean, Kansas,
- 24:38Speaker 2: I mean, this is a state that went overwhelmingly for
- 24:42Speaker 2: Donald Trump in 2024-2024. And now we're having to pump
- 24:46Speaker 2: scarce money into that state.
- 24:49Speaker 8: It's a fascinating race to watch.
- 24:51Speaker 2: I mean, the Democrat Hamilton, he was a Republican in
- 24:54Speaker 2: April and turned around and became a Democrat.
- 24:56Speaker 8: To run against Marshall.
- 24:59Speaker 2: So I love this race. And the fact that we've
- 25:02Speaker 2: got a competitive Kansas, that's the first time in like
- 25:05Speaker 2: 100 years that we've seen this kind of competition.
- 25:08Speaker 1: Unreal. Unbelievable. Rick, what do you do if you're Michael Watley?
- 25:13Speaker 1: You've seen this happen.
- 25:14Speaker 9: It happens in every cycle when they say, you know what,
- 25:16Speaker 9: we're turning the money off and effectively turning our back
- 25:19Speaker 9: on you.
- 25:20Speaker 1: You just keep campaigning.
- 25:21Speaker 9: You just you just get up and watch the sunrise
- 25:24Speaker 9: and hope for the best. Or does it actually change
- 25:26Speaker 9: operations inside the campaign?
- 25:29Speaker 10: Well, no.
- 25:29Speaker 2: I mean, you've got through it. It depends on the
- 25:32Speaker 2: kind of campaign he's running, right? I mean, it's all
- 25:34Speaker 2: about the people around him. And I've been on losing
- 25:37Speaker 2: campaigns where you knew you were going to lose, and
- 25:39Speaker 2: you really did the best you possibly could.
- 25:41Speaker 8: And in some cases, it helps the down ticket, right?
- 25:44Speaker 2: So, you know, you're campaigning behind you or state legislative,
- 25:48Speaker 2: state senate races, mayors. So you want to do whatever
- 25:51Speaker 2: you can for the party at that level. But, yeah,
- 25:55Speaker 2: you're not getting a tee time. you know, at the
- 25:59Speaker 2: country club between now and election day.
- 26:03Speaker 5: Well, so if that's what the Watley campaign is doing, Jeannie,
- 26:06Speaker 5: what about if you're Roy Cooper and you see the
- 26:08Speaker 5: resources fleeing for your opponent? Do you need to keep
- 26:12Speaker 5: spending money, especially when you're a former governor of the
- 26:14Speaker 5: state with super high name recognition?
- 26:17Speaker 3: Yeah, two-term governor, I think you keep doing what you
- 26:21Speaker 3: have been doing. And, you know, the Republicans went into
- 26:24Speaker 3: this race a little bit concerned about Whatley. He has
- 26:27Speaker 3: proven not to be such a great candidate. And this
- 26:30Speaker 3: fleeing of the money is a sign of that. And then,
- 26:33Speaker 3: of course, you get to Marshall, the idea that an
- 26:35Speaker 3: incumbent senator of any party could lose potentially shows just
- 26:40Speaker 3: what a good candidate Hamilton is. And he is, remember,
- 26:44Speaker 3: by my count, the third pastor on the Democratic side.
- 26:49Speaker 1: We have Georgia.
- 26:50Speaker 3: We have Texas now with Tallarico.
- 26:52Speaker 8: We have Hamilton.
- 26:54Speaker 3: And they are showing Democrats in the mid-portion of this
- 26:57Speaker 3: country and the South that if they're moderate, they can
- 27:01Speaker 3: indeed be competitive in these states. And of course, Doc
- 27:04Speaker 3: Marshall has had a hard time since he's been suing
- 27:06Speaker 3: his own constituents who were his former patients. It's been
- 27:10Speaker 3: a really ugly time for him.
- 27:13Speaker 5: All right, Jeanne Shanzano and Rick Davis, our political panel,
- 27:16Speaker 5: thank you so much for helping us work through the
- 27:19Speaker 5: politics around who voters might be voting for.
- 27:22Speaker 6: But we're going to.
- 27:22Speaker 5: Get into how they vote and legal barriers to it
- 27:27Speaker 5: as we turn to Elizabeth Frost up next on Bloomberg
- 27:30Speaker 5: TV and Dream.
- 27:31Speaker 1: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
- 27:33Speaker 1: more coming up after this.
- 27:39Speaker 4: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
- 27:42Speaker 4: us live weekdays at noon and 5 p.m. Eastern on
- 27:46Speaker 4: Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
- 27:49Speaker 4: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch
- 27:52Speaker 4: us live on YouTube.
- 27:53Speaker 1: 32 days left.
- 27:56Speaker 9: We've said this a number of times before we're all voting,
- 27:58Speaker 9: and you better believe we are planning special coverage of
- 28:01Speaker 9: the midterms for you here. There's much to understand between
- 28:04Speaker 9: now and then, though. Much of it coming from fundraising. Kayleigh,
- 28:07Speaker 9: there's a huge story about election security and voter fraud.
- 28:11Speaker 9: We're going to talk in a moment with Elizabeth Frost
- 28:13Speaker 9: about some of the litigation that's already happening and will
- 28:16Speaker 9: likely follow this election cycle. But then there's the matter
- 28:19Speaker 9: of messaging. And as we consider the way lawmakers left town,
- 28:22Speaker 9: there are pretty big questions about the message of affordability
- 28:25Speaker 9: and whether or not they can actually make the argument
- 28:28Speaker 9: on the campaign trail to get in voters' minds with
- 28:33Speaker 9: diesel at record highs. It's not just energy, of course, Kayleigh.
- 28:37Speaker 9: When you talk about diesel prices, that brings you straight
- 28:39Speaker 9: to the grocery store.
- 28:41Speaker 12: Yep.
- 28:41Speaker 5: And affordability becomes front and center, which is why there
- 28:44Speaker 5: were some Republican senators who were pushing for votes before
- 28:46Speaker 5: they left town on things like the Right Payer Protection Act.
- 28:49Speaker 5: But also Susan Collins, for example, wanted to vote on
- 28:51Speaker 5: her bill to cap insulin costs. They were trying to
- 28:54Speaker 5: get a permitting reform together that may wait until after
- 28:56Speaker 5: the election. And in the long term, proponents of it
- 29:00Speaker 5: would say could help bring down prices. But there's not
- 29:02Speaker 5: a lot to give voters immediately.
- 29:04Speaker 6: Or that will affect them in the 32 days between
- 29:07Speaker 6: now and when they go to the polls.
- 29:08Speaker 5: So let's get into this now as we turn to
- 29:10Speaker 5: Megan Scully, who leads our capital influence team here at
- 29:13Speaker 5: Bloomberg and is with us in our DC studio. So Megan,
- 29:16Speaker 5: when we consider what they couldn't get accomplished before leaving town,
- 29:20Speaker 5: they have left town. to go sell what they have
- 29:23Speaker 5: been able to get accomplished. So what's the pitch? And
- 29:25Speaker 5: is it the same one that the president is delivering
- 29:28Speaker 5: as he makes this swing largely through red states, including
- 29:31Speaker 5: Alabama later today?
- 29:32Speaker 6: It's a pretty hard sell.
- 29:33Speaker 13: Their biggest achievement was, of course, the one big, beautiful
- 29:36Speaker 13: bill that was enacted last July. So we're talking more
- 29:41Speaker 13: than a year now. And that didn't even really resonate
- 29:44Speaker 13: with voters to the extent that they wanted it to. Sure,
- 29:47Speaker 13: some people, particularly those who could take advantage of the
- 29:50Speaker 13: SALT deduction, were very happy with their tax returns last year.
- 29:54Speaker 13: But most Americans, while their tax returns were bigger, they
- 29:56Speaker 13: weren't as big as they had hoped. So, and at
- 30:00Speaker 13: the same time, you know, then that increase was paying for,
- 30:03Speaker 13: as you mentioned, higher gasoline prices, you know, higher electric bills,
- 30:08Speaker 13: et cetera, et cetera.
- 30:09Speaker 9: Enter Lisa McLean then. And then the talking point is
- 30:13Speaker 9: Democrats are crazy. They're crazy people is what we're hearing,
- 30:16Speaker 9: which is a very different argument than vote for Republicans
- 30:20Speaker 9: again because we'll lower your prices.
- 30:22Speaker 6: Absolutely.
- 30:22Speaker 13: And we heard that play out again and again just
- 30:24Speaker 13: last month at the Republican National Convention. And certainly that's
- 30:30Speaker 13: something that can resonate with certain parts of the MAGA base.
- 30:34Speaker 13: But the biggest issue of this midterm election, beyond the
- 30:38Speaker 13: shadow of a doubt, is not socialism.
- 30:41Speaker 1: It is affordability.
- 30:43Speaker 6: It is what people are paying at the grocery store.
- 30:45Speaker 5: Well, and of course, President Trump says that the issue
- 30:48Speaker 5: should be whether or not he is on the ballot.
- 30:51Speaker 5: He says voters should pretend that he is, and he
- 30:54Speaker 5: is putting himself front and center as he makes trips
- 30:56Speaker 5: to all of these different states. Who does he help
- 31:01Speaker 5: by going back? to Alabama today, or to Ohio tomorrow?
- 31:05Speaker 5: Or does he actually risk hurting people in Ohio, like
- 31:08Speaker 5: John Husted and some vulnerable Republican Congress people?
- 31:11Speaker 8: Sure.
- 31:11Speaker 13: It's going to be very interesting to see what happens there, exactly.
- 31:15Speaker 13: Of course, the Ohio Senate race is a toss-up race,
- 31:19Speaker 13: and it is between John Husted.
- 31:21Speaker 8: It is J.D.
- 31:22Speaker 13: Vance's old seat. He's running against longtime senator who lost
- 31:26Speaker 13: in the last cycle, Sherrod Brown.
- 31:28Speaker 10: So.
- 31:30Speaker 6: Who has widespread name recognition.
- 31:33Speaker 13: Of course, Trump's biggest selling point in going to that
- 31:36Speaker 13: state is rallying that MAGA base. But he does so
- 31:41Speaker 13: at the risk, potentially, of alienating those moderates that he
- 31:45Speaker 13: said is really going to need to win in November.
- 31:49Speaker 9: Kayleigh mentioned the Ratepayers Protection Act and permitting reform. I
- 31:53Speaker 9: don't know if either see the light of day in
- 31:56Speaker 9: the lame duck session, Megan, but we're told permitting reform
- 32:00Speaker 9: is the only real way to get to this long-term
- 32:03Speaker 9: energy price issue. Could mean more pipelines, could mean more refineries.
- 32:08Speaker 9: Do Democrats warm up to that idea and the lame
- 32:11Speaker 9: duck or try to make it their own in the
- 32:13Speaker 9: next Congress?
- 32:14Speaker 13: I think you're going to see them, Democrats, should they
- 32:17Speaker 13: win one or both chambers of Congress, which is seeming
- 32:21Speaker 13: more likely by day, I think you're going to see
- 32:23Speaker 13: them more aggressive and demanding more concessions from Republicans on
- 32:27Speaker 13: everything from energy permitting to potentially even the debt ceiling
- 32:30Speaker 13: in the lame duck.
- 32:31Speaker 10: Okay.
- 32:32Speaker 1: Bill or the agreement as we understand could continue to morph.
- 32:35Speaker 6: I believe so.
- 32:36Speaker 1: Yeah future Megan.
- 32:37Speaker 9: It's great to have you back Thank you as always
- 32:39Speaker 9: Megan Scully runs our capital influence team with some of
- 32:42Speaker 9: the best coverage on Capitol Hill Where you can of
- 32:44Speaker 9: course find more on the terminal and online and with
- 32:47Speaker 9: regard to midterm elections We've talked so much about the
- 32:50Speaker 9: litigation around this the the concerns that many people have
- 32:54Speaker 9: of voting irregularities the president's concerns about mail-in ballots and
- 32:58Speaker 9: Elizabeth Frost does this for a living as litigation chair
- 33:01Speaker 9: at the Elias Law Group and joins us now on
- 33:03Speaker 9: Bloomberg TV and radio. 32 days to go, Elizabeth. You
- 33:07Speaker 9: don't need me to tell you that. Will this be
- 33:09Speaker 9: the most litigated election ever?
- 33:12Speaker 12: You know, right now, the 2020 election holds that honor or.
- 33:16Speaker 1: Yeah, sure does.
- 33:19Speaker 12: And, you know, it's hard to say. I will say
- 33:21Speaker 12: that we are busier than we have been in an
- 33:24Speaker 12: election cycle at this point in the cycle. We have
- 33:27Speaker 12: no less than six oral arguments in my group this
- 33:30Speaker 12: month alone, which is really unusual for October. And of course,
- 33:33Speaker 12: we're monitoring and ready to go in effectively every direction
- 33:37Speaker 12: you could possibly imagine in the event of litigation.
- 33:42Speaker 5: Well, so we'll talk about what happens after the votes
- 33:45Speaker 5: are tallied in a minute. But let's talk about what's
- 33:47Speaker 5: happening right now. Can you set the baseline for us
- 33:50Speaker 5: as to where the broad legal picture stands in regard
- 33:54Speaker 5: to people's ability to either register to vote, be able
- 33:57Speaker 5: to vote in the means at which they decide they
- 33:59Speaker 5: want to be a mail in ballot or at the polls?
- 34:04Speaker 5: whether or not there are going to be restrictions in
- 34:07Speaker 5: place for any of this, knowing that the president, of course,
- 34:09Speaker 5: wanted to change the way the Postal Service, for example,
- 34:11Speaker 5: distributed mail-in ballots, and the Supreme Court struck that down.
- 34:14Speaker 5: What changes have been pursued that, as of right now,
- 34:17Speaker 5: are holding?
- 34:19Speaker 8: Well, so the.
- 34:20Speaker 12: Big one, of course, is the president's attempt through his
- 34:23Speaker 12: executive order to effectively commandeer the Postal Service to decide
- 34:27Speaker 12: whether who gets to vote and who doesn't get to
- 34:29Speaker 12: vote by absentee ballot. The Supreme Court, lower court entered
- 34:34Speaker 12: an injunction and the Supreme Court stayed that.
- 34:37Speaker 8: So that is done.
- 34:39Speaker 6: I mean, there will.
- 34:39Speaker 12: Be voting by mail in the election. That's going to happen.
- 34:46Speaker 12: I think the bigger question is, are we going to
- 34:48Speaker 12: see sort of widespread attempts to challenge.
- 34:51Speaker 8: Voters eligibility to vote?
- 34:54Speaker 12: There's a lot of indicators that this is what the
- 34:56Speaker 12: Trump administration very much wants to do. And in fact,
- 35:01Speaker 12: they started last spring by demanding the unredacted voter rolls
- 35:06Speaker 12: of every state in the nation, which has never.
- 35:08Speaker 8: Been something that they have done before.
- 35:11Speaker 12: Some number of Republican states cooperated them to some degree.
- 35:15Speaker 12: It's unclear exactly how much cooperated or exactly who they are.
- 35:19Speaker 12: But at least 30 states, Republican and Democrat controlled, refused
- 35:24Speaker 12: to turn over private voter information. An unredacted voter roll
- 35:27Speaker 12: has a lot of information about you, including your full
- 35:30Speaker 12: or partial social security number, your full date of birth, right?
- 35:33Speaker 12: The kinds of stuff that states and individual voters guard
- 35:37Speaker 12: very closely for good reason. They sued 30 states. They
- 35:41Speaker 12: sued 31. One was settled. Because it turned out they'd
- 35:45Speaker 12: been emailing the wrong address in Oklahoma to try and
- 35:48Speaker 12: get a concession there. And once they sued, Oklahoma settled.
- 35:52Speaker 12: But the other 30 went to the lower courts and
- 35:54Speaker 12: they have so far lost 26 of them. So I
- 35:57Speaker 12: think those lawsuits are probably dead in the water. But
- 36:00Speaker 12: what's really telling is that when the lawsuit strategy didn't
- 36:05Speaker 12: work out, the Trump administration started trying to get this
- 36:08Speaker 12: through a variety of other ways, including the executive order
- 36:11Speaker 12: that I just mentioned. Part of the initial attempt of
- 36:15Speaker 12: using the Postal Service to decide who could vote was
- 36:17Speaker 12: they were considering asking states to just upload their unredacted
- 36:21Speaker 12: voter files, right? We've obviously seen threats to election officials
- 36:25Speaker 12: come from the administration saying, if you let someone vote
- 36:27Speaker 12: who shouldn't be voting, we're going to prosecute you. So
- 36:31Speaker 12: I think we're seeing them try and get this data
- 36:33Speaker 12: in a million different ways. And the question really is why?
- 36:38Speaker 12: And Harmeet Dhillon, the assistant attorney general of the Civil
- 36:42Speaker 12: Rights Division, has indicated they would like to remove.
- 36:44Speaker 8: Voters from the rolls.
- 36:47Speaker 9: We should note Elias Law Group is focused on representing
- 36:51Speaker 9: the Democratic Party, Democratic campaigns.
- 36:55Speaker 1: Elizabeth, what do you tell people?
- 36:56Speaker 9: And you've heard this narrative before that the president is
- 36:59Speaker 9: planning to declare a state of emergency.
- 37:01Speaker 1: What would that allow him to do on election day?
- 37:04Speaker 12: So he has no basis to declare a state of emergency.
- 37:07Speaker 12: Whether he will attempt it, you know, is sort of
- 37:11Speaker 12: anyone's guess at this point. I think thus far, saner
- 37:15Speaker 12: minds have held. But in the current timeline that we're on,
- 37:18Speaker 12: that is certainly not a given. It would be litigated
- 37:21Speaker 12: in court, and I expect that he would lose. I
- 37:24Speaker 12: would also want to point out, you're absolutely right that
- 37:26Speaker 12: we represent Democrats, but we also represent, we do a
- 37:29Speaker 12: lot of nonpartisan litigation. And actually, the majority of my
- 37:32Speaker 12: docket now is nonpartisan litigation, including all of the interventions
- 37:36Speaker 12: that we filed on behalf of voters and voter organizations
- 37:39Speaker 12: in these attempts to acquire private voter data and I
- 37:44Speaker 12: think one of the things that's quite interesting about those
- 37:46Speaker 12: cases is I think that, I mean, obviously DOJ doesn't
- 37:49Speaker 12: include me in its text chains or strategy discussions, but
- 37:53Speaker 12: I suspect that they thought that it was data, it
- 37:57Speaker 12: was sort of boring, it would fly under the radar.
- 37:59Speaker 12: But in fact, it's been just the opposite. Americans have
- 38:02Speaker 12: been irate about the idea of their data being taken
- 38:05Speaker 12: in this way. And in fact, we represent a former
- 38:08Speaker 12: Republican legislature in one of these states, and we represent
- 38:10Speaker 12: a wide variety of Americans who fought back against this.
- 38:15Speaker 5: Well, as you mentioned, the DOJ and Harmee Dillon, she
- 38:17Speaker 5: actually joined us on this program not too long ago
- 38:20Speaker 5: and talked to us about the DOJ's plans to send
- 38:23Speaker 5: out election monitors to a number of states. across the
- 38:26Speaker 5: country for the midterms. If they are present at the polls,
- 38:30Speaker 5: who else other than obviously voters and people, electoral officials,
- 38:34Speaker 5: people who have volunteered to spend their time there, who
- 38:37Speaker 5: is legally allowed to be present? To Joe's question around
- 38:40Speaker 5: the state of emergency, under what grounds could we see
- 38:42Speaker 5: the deployment of law enforcement or the military or say ICE,
- 38:46Speaker 5: for example?
- 38:48Speaker 12: So the only way that you could deploy the military
- 38:52Speaker 12: would be to repel enemies against the United States. This
- 38:55Speaker 12: is why I feel like this is one of these
- 38:57Speaker 12: more far-fetched ideas that we've seen come out of the administration.
- 39:01Speaker 8: And don't get me wrong, a lot.
- 39:02Speaker 12: Of the ideas they've tried have been far-fetched as well.
- 39:05Speaker 12: But that's a very, very narrow lane that it's just
- 39:11Speaker 12: not feasible they find themselves in it. There is actually
- 39:15Speaker 12: very strict federal law that that makes clear that armed
- 39:21Speaker 12: federal officers and federal officers in general are not allowed
- 39:24Speaker 12: to be at the polls, present at the polls. And
- 39:26Speaker 12: so there's actually several lawsuits, including one that my firm
- 39:30Speaker 12: is involved on, this one on behalf of several of
- 39:32Speaker 12: the Democratic Party committees and Democratic leaders in Congress, because
- 39:37Speaker 12: of some of the concerning things the administration has said
- 39:39Speaker 12: that indicates that, in fact, contrary to that law, they
- 39:43Speaker 12: have internally adopted a policy that they believe they could
- 39:48Speaker 12: send federal officers to the polls. So those lawsuits are
- 39:53Speaker 12: already pending. We've also, of course, heard Assistant Attorney General
- 39:58Speaker 12: Dillon say that she is planning on sending observers to
- 40:03Speaker 12: the polls. There are very, very strict limitations on what
- 40:06Speaker 12: DOJ can do there, and effectively they can't interfere. And
- 40:10Speaker 12: I'm sure you all saw the news that came out
- 40:12Speaker 12: of Wyoming when there was sort of a test run
- 40:16Speaker 12: recently And the Wyoming governor was quite upset with some
- 40:18Speaker 12: of the behavior of some of the Department of Justice employees.
- 40:22Speaker 12: So it's definitely something to look out for. And it's
- 40:24Speaker 12: definitely something that our clients are planning to be prepared for.
- 40:29Speaker 5: Well, and we hope to stay in touch with you, Elizabeth,
- 40:31Speaker 5: as these legal fights leading up to and then after
- 40:34Speaker 5: ultimately the vote play out. Elizabeth Frost is the chair
- 40:37Speaker 5: of litigation at Elias Law Group here with us on
- 40:40Speaker 5: Balance of Power on this Friday.
- 40:44Speaker 9: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
- 40:47Speaker 9: sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify,
- 40:50Speaker 9: or wherever you get your podcasts.
- 40:52Speaker 1: And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C.
- 40:55Speaker 1: at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg.com.