Latest / HPK Provident Advisors: The Weekly Bull / From Hot PPI To Gold’s Surge: What Investors Need To Know Now

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From Hot PPI To Gold’s Surge: What Investors Need To Know Now · HPK Provident Advisors: The Weekly Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to Friday Live.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: Every Friday, some of the partners of HPK Proving get together and discuss what we're seeing going on in the markets, the economy, and tie in some of the financial planning topics that we speak about throughout the week.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: So today I have David Harper.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_01: And before I uh let him give his little intro, I'm glad to be back.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: I missed the I think the last two out of the three Friday Live.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_01: So I was really missing being on video.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_01: So this week, instead of my look-aheaded post being in blog form, I did it video form just so I could show my face.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_02: How nice of you, Mike.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_02: It's great to have you back.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_02: And um, I guess, like most of the country, under inches, maybe perhaps feet of snow, and I think more coming.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_02: Um, yeah, even sometimes here in Florida we get a little bit under the weather.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I don't know what I think it was Tuesday morning.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_01: We we were 24 degrees at 7 a.m.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_01: We're not uh we're not equipped for that kind of weather.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_02: No, the the uh iguanas tend to drop out of the trees um when below 40.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_02: Um alligators, yep.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_02: Um, the alligators um just stop eating.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_02: Uh it's amazing that they could just have their nostrils above the water, and the rest of it could freeze and they're fine.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_02: Uh happens to Myrtle Beach all the time.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_02: Now we don't really get much snow down in the Everglades, but uh perhaps it may be helpful to get rid of some of those Burmese pythons.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_01: Um I didn't watch much of the the football games this weekend now that my Jags are out, but did you watch them?
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_02: They go as the way you thought Seattle is a beast.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_02: Uh and the Rams had their moments, but Seattle stuck to it.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_02: Uh now what happened in Denver and with the uh the Patriots uh that's that's rough.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_02: Um, you better make you better score your points when the sun is shining, because when the snow falls, at least out west and and the northeast, when the snow falls, it's a lot harder to um throw that pig skin, uh let alone run it in the sludge.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_02: Uh you just slip slide all over the place.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_02: So pretty low scoring fare.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_01: And yeah, I look quite snowy in where was that?
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_01: Denver.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_01: So who's your who's your pick for the Super Bowl?
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_01: Not this Sunday, but I believe the following Sunday, the might be the 8th.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_02: Yep, February 8th.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so uh grab your popcorn, grab your nachos, and uh get yourself a nice seat, and hopefully there's a fireplace nearby and you can enjoy your game.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_01: So this is our typical uh blog post schedule.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_01: We do Market Monday, where I usually do the blog post.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_01: Uh this week, like I mentioned, I did a video for him, but just talking about kind of what happened in the past week economically in the markets and what I'm looking at going forward in the in the upcoming week.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_01: Um, then tax Tuesday, Brian's been doing a great campaign of talking about different tax tips you can do to uh maximize your after-tax income, and then wealth building Wednesday, just some financial planning tips there.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_01: Think ahead Thursday, things to be thinking about in your financial future.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_01: And then as always, Friday live at 12:30 p.m.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_01: Eastern time, where we do this format and discuss the blog posts, markets, and the economy.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_01: So uh, where would you like to start this week?
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_01: With should we start with Market Monday?
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_02: Well, and we also had the webinar on Wednesday, uh, as the outlook goes.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_02: Um let's start with let's start with uh a recap of the of the outlook of the market uh for 2026.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_01: All right, so first I'm gonna I guess start with the chart.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_01: So yesterday we had a big drawdown and it ended up recovering.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_01: I think the SP was down 1.3 percent at the at the low end, ended up finishing, I think, negative 0.15.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_01: I think the Dow might even flip positive today.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_01: We were down about 0.5 or so at the lows.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_01: We've rebounded a little bit.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but the big news today is PPI and the Fed chair announcement.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_01: So when you think about uh really both of those dynamics, um PPI came in hot for sure.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_01: It was at uh let's see, the headline rose 0.5% for the month, 3% on a year-over-year basis versus expectations of 2.8 percent, while core rose 0.7, which is extremely high for the month, and coming in at 3.3% year over year versus expectations of 2.8 percent.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_01: So that is uh, I would say not being reflected in the two-year.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_01: Are you guys seeing?
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, okay, just to make sure you're seeing the chart.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_01: So it's not being reflected in the two-year.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_01: Um, typically a high inflation reading like that would cause the two-year to jump quite a bit.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but really the two years uh in and and Jeffrey Gunlock makes a good joke about this, like who he wants the next Fed chair to be the two-year treasury, because that's where it should be.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_01: And the range that we are in that the Fed kept us in this week is three and a half to 3.75.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_01: So we're right in that range.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_01: Um, it was looking like Rick Reeder was gonna be the favorite pick for Fed chair after Kevin Hassett, um, where Trump said that you know he likes Hassett too much to give him up to the the Fed.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_01: So actually he went with uh Kevin Worsh.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_01: Um historically has been very more on the hawkish side.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_01: He was uh very incremental in the 08 financial crisis.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_01: So his big concern is the balance sheet, um, that it's way too high.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_01: So um that's gonna make him more prone to cutting rates, I would say, um, because those interest payments are becoming quite large.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_01: So I think that's why the PPI numbers uh reflected in the two-year being more offset by the Fed pick.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_01: Um on the longer end, which kind of is more reflective of what inflation is gonna do, what the economy is gonna do, it did break above that downtrend line, um, but barely.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_01: It could be a false breakdown.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_01: So if we get back below 420, I think the the trend is still lower.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_01: But given government debt, I think it's more likely that that's gonna remain on the high side.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_01: So even if the Fed cuts rates at the the short end, the Fed funds rate, I think we're more likely to stay a little higher on the long end, which is um kind of negates the impact on the economy, especially the housing market and cyclical industries.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_01: So SP's done pretty well for the month.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_01: It's a little up over 1% as we speak now for the month of January.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but it's really been a different picture than what we've seen in in previous years, where you know the Mag 7 was really the driver of performance.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_01: This year it's opposite.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_01: The Mag 7 performance hasn't been that great, but the the other 493 has been doing pretty well.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, specifically industrials, commodities, which we'll speak about a little further, um, materials in general, regional banks, not the large banks, and then international markets are doing a lot.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_01: So um international markets tend to do well when the dollar is a little weaker.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_01: So that that can be the case there.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_02: Um it's nice to see, Mike, that there's some broadening of the market instead of being so concentrated with a max seven.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that is healthy.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_01: And and looking at the chart of the SP 500 market weight, um, especially looking at the RSI figure, which is a momentum indicator, we've been inching up to new highs on the SP for a while, even though we're essentially flat since October.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_01: We've made marginal distance above that level, but RSI has not kept up with it.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and typically when you see that kind of divergence, it's it's meaning there's there's some underlying weakness under the surface.
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_01: But actually, the broad index, like the equal weight, is doing much better on the year, the Dow is doing much better.
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_01: I think uh I think the equal weights above two percent year to date.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, small caps are doing very well, up around eight percent.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_01: They were closer to 10, but gave back a little toward the end of last week.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_01: So um we're really in the heart of earnings season right now.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_02: Um fundamentally, fundamentally, companies are making money, people have uh money in their pockets to spend.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_02: Um so the consumer-driven economy that that is so important to us, um uh people are buying.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_02: Um so it seems like odd.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_02: I think that's a pretty good picture that uh uh that policies, uh what um what the administration happens to do has has had a pretty big significant impact on market gyration, certainly in market volatility.
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, going up and down.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_01: It's like the two percent move down the previous Tuesday because of the talk of buying Greenland and then them backing off as the negotiating tool of the 10% tariff.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah, definitely uh government policy has a big impact.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_01: Um, with and that takes us right into the the Fed meeting.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_01: Um, he seemed to think so they didn't cut interest rates, they left in the range of three and a half to 3.75, but he seemed pretty confident that his two dual mandates of um employment and stable prices aren't fighting against each other anymore, which I you know, I I can't say I'm a big believer of that.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_01: As we saw today, PPI was very hot.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_01: Um, the last CPI report did come down, but maybe we were still shaking off some of the effects of the government shutdown affecting the data.
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and then on the employment side, uh non-farm payrolls has been pretty weak.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, we did see a little better reading this previous month at 50,000, um, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.4 percent.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_01: But I don't have a high conviction level that that's gonna continue downward.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_01: Um, with it, productivity is insane because of AI.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_01: And if anything, I think that'll cause the unemployment rate to remain higher.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_01: Um, it's certainly not coming from job growth because that's been weakening.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so I think with, I mean, we we had an announcement, probably five companies this week announcing layoffs, and a lot of that has to do with um AI spend.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I think I forget which company put it out, but they were predicting that because of AI, it could reduce the non-farm payrolls number by 20,000 a month.
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_01: So I think we're essentially like barely in positive territory for non-farm payrolls.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_01: So my inclination is that unemployment rates probably gonna start to tick up.
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_01: Um, given the PPI number being so hot, we could see elevated readings over the next couple quarters, especially as as tariffs kind of you know settle in a little more.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_01: But beyond that, I don't think like I don't think long term, I think on the back half of the year, given the weakening of the labor market, that um inflation will probably kind of settle back down.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_01: So earnings this week, shifting topics.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_01: Um we had a lot of the mag 7, we had Meta, Microsoft, and Apple report and Tesla.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_01: And I mean it was pretty 50-50 with those.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_01: Um actually, I think the only real positive one was Meta.
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_01: They're up 10%.
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_01: Um I guess spending was under control.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_01: Um, their guidance was good on the flip side, and Microsoft is spending too much, and cloud growth is on the weaker side, even though it's still strong.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_01: Um, it just wasn't what the street was looking for.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_01: So, overall, I think um I think 135 companies have reported on the SP 500, and we're at about 77 beat rate or 75 beat rate, which is pretty good for earnings.
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_01: It's it's pretty close to the five-year average.
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and and the bar is pretty high.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_01: I think um we're expecting above eight percent earnings growth for the quarter, and on a full year, which makes me a little concerned, I think the numbers expected to be 14.8 percent, which is very strong.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_01: And you say, Oh, that should be a great year for the stock market, but unfortunately, based on that 14.8 percent growth, we're trading at 22 and a half times earnings.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_02: So the bar is on the high side, which uh which means uh there's benefit to look at other value plays outside the country.
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_02: Uh that's that's the case for um internationals.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_02: Um so you you don't don't be surprised if you see uh Mike picking up some uh some good international plays uh for our portfolios.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_02: We will never overweight uh international.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_02: Uh we like our domestic markets, uh, don't we, Mike?
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_01: We do.
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_01: There is a term in behavioral finance called home bias, which I I would say I'm certainly subject to, but in my tenure in this career, I've seen very few years of international performance, but last year was one of them.
• 14:47
  SPEAKER_01: Um, this year could very well be another one, especially if the the dollar remains weak.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so going into our blog topics for the week, um, Brian did the Tax Tuesday blog post, which highlights QCD's qualified charitable distributions.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_01: So basically what that means is once you hit age 70 and a half, you can start taking some of your distributions from your IRA and putting them directly, transferring them directly to a qualified charity.
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_01: So the benefits of that are you don't get taxed on that amount.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_01: So it also doesn't go into the components that go into Medicare and Social Security taxation.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_01: And then once you hit the RMD age of 73, it can satisfy that without having to pay taxes on it.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_01: Um, anything to add on that?
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_02: With the benefit that if if you have a sizable amount in your retirement account, uh you're gonna your RMDs can really put you in the next tax bracket or further.
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_02: So trying to trim your retirement accounts is not a bad idea, and to help your uh help the charity of your choice, that sounds like a win-win situation.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_02: And and and that's what the government has set up to do is that those qualified charitable donations.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_01: And then Wednesday we had a post Brian put out that was about just LPL's market outlook.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think we need to go into that.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_01: I got the markets covered here.
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_02: Maybe I'm a little biased, a little cocky, but um simple fact is uh 2026 can be a lot like 2025, just with a little bit of volatility, a lot probably a more volatility, but understand that uh we still like where the market is heading for 2026, and and we'll believe we'll probably use those drawdowns as buying opportunities.
• 16:49
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and we have been building up more cash because I think the odds of at least a correction are heightened this year, if not a full 20 decline, which would be a bear market.
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_01: I don't I don't think I'm really in that camp at this point, but I think it's likely we'll see a 10 pullback.
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_01: Um oh if I had to bet probably but um probably probably I mean I'm gonna go with seasonal patterns, summer months, second and third quarter.
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_02: So you think the first quarter will uh well first quarter last year was pretty rough.
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_02: Um that's true.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_01: We did have a near bear market.
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_01: I think we got 19.8 percent drawdown.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and then it's been pretty much a straight shot up.
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_01: We had some volatility in the fall, but overall minor drawdowns.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so yeah, typically the months from I'd say October to through March, April are the strongest period of the year.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_01: And then as the saying goes, sell in May and go away might be the case this year.
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_01: We I I don't think last May was bad.
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_01: I think that's where we started having the recovery from that that almost bear market.
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so historical patterns don't always shake out.
• 18:13
  SPEAKER_01: Um the second year of a presidential cycle is the the weakest of the four-year cycle.
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_01: So that's another component we're dealing with.
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but we're just we're very we're very flexible with our positioning, we're able to maneuver around, so uh we tend to do that.
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_01: And um late, like we have we have enough cash position to take advantage of a pullback currently based on individual stock charts.
• 18:40
  SPEAKER_01: Um, maybe I'll add a little bit more to that if I start seeing a particular company stock breaking down and breaking like a trend line.
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but besides that, um, at least at this point, we're probably still gonna be buyers of dips.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_01: Um yep.
• 18:57
  SPEAKER_01: Yep.
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_01: So you wanna we had a post on Thursday talking about uh the boom that we've seen in the commodity market, uh specifically precious metals, uh silver and gold.
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_01: Oh my goodness.
• 19:11
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, well uh and I gotta I gotta pull up the daily chart doesn't do it justice here.
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_01: I gotta I gotta pull up uh a weekly chart at least.
• 19:22
  SPEAKER_01: So let's see, let's go back a bunch of years here.
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, so you can uh start talking about your okay.
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_02: So what you know uh when we think about precious metals, we when we think about commodities, we're talking about something that's not really tied to the stock market or bond market.
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_02: These are considered alternatives, alternative investments, and we do have alternative investments in your portfolio that Mike has built in because there's portions, and you can see that huge run on so this is GLD, uh the gold ETF by Spider, and it dates back to
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, I think it doesn't go back too far, but down to I think 07.
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_01: But you just see this parabolic move over the last six months.
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_01: It's just insane.
• 20:13
  SPEAKER_01: Today we're down close to seven percent.
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_01: Silver, another one, which uh started a little later in this trend, but I gotta do, I gotta figure out this chart here.
• 20:25
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, but it won't even adjust automatically.
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_02: We had a very fascinating article by Jeff Childers.
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, now Jeff Child Childers is um he's he's a lawyer up in K and Gainesville.
• 20:38
  SPEAKER_02: Uh he runs a post called Coffee and COVID.
• 20:42
  SPEAKER_02: Um, he got started on this during the COVID when um the people the the powers that be around Gainesville really wanted to shut down most uh activities, and he felt that that wasn't fully necessary.
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_02: And uh he faced backlash on that, and he started doing the the posting on free markets and on and independent thinking.
• 21:09
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, and he had a he had a blog of podcast on gold uh and precious metals, and it's a fascinating read.
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_02: I I would recommend you uh pull it up under COVID, coffee and covet.
• 21:23
  SPEAKER_02: Um uh intriguing that the the US has a stockpile of uh and and this again, this is from his podcast.
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_02: He has a they have a stockpile of 262 million ounces of gold.
• 21:40
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, and right now the uh the US Treasury uh accounts that at 44.25 an ounce, which is about 11 billion dollars.
• 21:55
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, well, if you end up putting that at fair market value and gold went above five thousand, I think uh yesterday it went above fifty five hundred, uh, we're talking about a one point one point three, one point four trillion.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_02: Um that's quite a big jump.
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_02: And if and if it's a thought of how can you um uh monetize gold, um don't put it past the present administration to um to use that.
• 22:29
  SPEAKER_02: And there was some thought that gold has been artificially um suppressed, the prices hasn't really gone with the fair market value, which seeing this kind of growth in the last six months, Mike, uh caused me more than just uh scratch my head.
• 22:48
  SPEAKER_02: And maybe there's some truth to that.
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_02: It had happened in the past, okay.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_01: So look at this three-month chart of silver, almost 100% six months.
• 22:59
  SPEAKER_01: It's I mean, I don't think we really got the jump until six, seven months ago.
• 23:04
  SPEAKER_01: So we're looking at a 200% potential gain in silver over that time period, just parabolic.
• 23:10
  SPEAKER_01: And and and you really get uh a sense of, you know, we've probably gone too far too quick when you start running into people at the supermarket and they they're they're asking you, well, well, what do you think about silver and gold right now?
• 23:26
  SPEAKER_01: Like, okay, let's uh let's pump the brakes for now.
• 23:30
  SPEAKER_01: Uh I mean commodities tend to like have these big super cycles, so I'm not saying it it's it's dead, but it's just gone very fast, very quickly.
• 23:41
  SPEAKER_02: Well, there's some thought that by Mr.
• 23:44
  SPEAKER_02: Chowders that it's it's not done.
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_02: The run is not done.
• 23:48
  SPEAKER_02: Um, now you don't want to be the you don't want to be the last party on the Titanic.
• 23:53
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, so we don't see any drop, we don't see any uh blow up on this.
• 23:59
  SPEAKER_02: Well, silver's down 18 today, but well, it's uh it's only up a hundred percent the the three months prior.
• 24:08
  SPEAKER_02: So to give back 18, uh I'm okay with that.
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_02: Um 30 here to date.
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_02: Uh so and that's just that's since January 1st.
• 24:20
  unknown: Wow.
• 24:21
  unknown: Wow.
• 24:22
  SPEAKER_02: Well, um, if you're a numismatic, such as myself, and you like uh uh the art value of gold and silver coins, um enjoy those pieces.
• 24:34
  SPEAKER_02: Uh but you might want to look at some of the dingier ones, uh what they call is spot silver, uh spot gold.
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_02: You you might want to maybe um cash into some of those chips, all right.
• 24:47
  SPEAKER_02: Trim trim that side.
• 24:49
  SPEAKER_02: Um but again, uh the place for gold in your portfolio is an arena of alternatives, okay.
• 25:01
  SPEAKER_02: And you really shouldn't have more than five, ten percent is really high uh on that side.
• 25:09
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, so if you find yourself with a chest full of gold in your backyard, uh you better start cashing some of those in.
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, yeah, maybe uh yeah, I mean the the precious metals are are tend to be are likely to be pretty volatile in the near term.
• 25:33
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but you're starting to see some good movements out of some of the other materials.
• 25:37
  SPEAKER_01: Like I'm just personally looking at a chart of uh steel manufacture right now.
• 25:42
  SPEAKER_01: It's it's had a nice run gear to date, um, not quite back up to its previous highs, but uh potentially, depending on where the economy goes, that might be a better place to look if you're looking at the material sector.
• 25:56
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, but typically materials as a whole, um uh well, like first of all, precious metals tend to do well when um there's some more concern in the markets, which uh we're right by market highs, so that's not necessarily the case.
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_01: They tend to do well when the dollar is weak, um, which is geopolitical unrest.
• 26:19
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, and uh potentially lack of faith in in uh like government policy, like like how there was supposed to be like the huge doge audit, and like you were talking about looking at Fort Knox or whatever for gold bars, is the gold really there, and just uh the the questionability of Fed independence, like the Fed chair is appointed by the president, the president picks someone who's gonna lower interest rates.
• 26:56
  SPEAKER_02: So there's there's some say to that.
• 26:59
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, uh the amount of service debt on the amount of government debt that the US holds, and this just paying the interest payments on that is becoming mind-boggling.
• 27:14
  SPEAKER_02: So for every quarter of one percent that's cut saves billions of dollars just on the interest payment.
• 27:22
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah, so maybe contrary to my point earlier, maybe that maybe cutting enough on the short end will ultimately bring down the long end as long as inflation remains under control.
• 27:35
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, that that's a key.
• 27:37
  SPEAKER_02: You don't want to be given out easy money because then the inflation will just go up.
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_02: So all right.
• 27:45
  SPEAKER_01: Well, the month's about to wrap up.
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_01: Looks like it's gonna be a good month.
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_01: Uh next week, uh, first Friday of the month, we get non-farm payrolls.
• 27:52
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll see what that has to uh tell us.
• 27:57
  SPEAKER_01: Should give a little better picture of what the labor market's actually doing.
• 28:01
  SPEAKER_01: Well, with that, we'll get the unemployment rate wage growth.
• 28:04
  SPEAKER_01: So a very uh good week for important economic factors, and we'll have another slew of um impactful SP companies reporting.
• 28:14
  SPEAKER_01: So uh should be uh should be a potentially market-moving week.
• 28:19
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll see if we break out to the upside or maybe uh take a leg lower.
• 28:25
  unknown: Okay.
• 28:26
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not not giving any hints right now.
• 28:28
  SPEAKER_01: You'll have to tune in next week.
• 28:30
  SPEAKER_02: All right, thank you, Mike, very much.
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_02: Everyone, have a great weekend.
• 28:35
  SPEAKER_02: Uh our partner Brian is uh enjoying uh a time with the family up in New York and Long Island to see uh Alex play some hockey.
• 28:45
  SPEAKER_01: All right, well, good luck to them.
• 28:47
  SPEAKER_01: I heard they had uh the previous week they were playing one of the the top tiers in the country.
• 28:53
  SPEAKER_02: One team in the country.
• 28:54
  SPEAKER_01: I and I forget what level he plays at.
• 28:57
  SPEAKER_01: It's it's not D1, but um regardless, very competitive hockey.
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, yes, very much so.
• 29:05
  SPEAKER_02: Um thank you, gentlemen.
• 29:08
  SPEAKER_02: Uh thank you, folks.
• 29:09
  SPEAKER_01: And before we go, I'm gonna flip on the disclosures and then we just keep an eye out for the blog posts, and we'll see you next Friday at 12 30 Eastern Time.
• 29:18
  SPEAKER_00: Security is offered through LPL Financial LLC, member FINRA and SIPC.org.
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_00: Advisory services offered through LPL Financial LLC, a registered investment advisor.
• 29:29
  SPEAKER_00: Brian Peluso, Michael Kutch, and David Harper are registered representatives of LPL Financial LLC.
• 29:36
  SPEAKER_00: Content discussed is for informational purposes only and not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment strategy.
• 29:44
  SPEAKER_00: Any opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial or its affiliates.
• 29:51
  SPEAKER_00: All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal.
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