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Best Betting Show Ever | NFL & CFB Betting Trends This Week, MLB Picks, Parlay of the Day & More! · Best Betting Show Ever

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: All right, welcome in.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: A very happy Wednesday to you. It is a prize-free zone.
• 0:04
  Speaker 2: I know you're all excited about that. So are we.
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: But Wednesday means... The pen is in the house. T
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: & A ready to roll here today. Ralph Michaels, of course,
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: Art DeCesar here. We are ready to run everything down
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: for you guys, which will include a whole boatload of injuries, apparently,
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: in the NFL because there's just not enough quarterbacks to
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: go around in the world, apparently. We got some sharp bets.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: We'll have that parlay of the day for you. Ralph's,
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: of course, famous trends and angles. T & A, We'll
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: talk a little college football. We'll talk some NFL sides.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: We'll run through Major League Baseball. And we're going to start, gentlemen,
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: with the injury news across the board here. And here
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: we are heading into week three, and already, Ralph, we
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: have question marks across the board.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Giants, we've seen big moves there.
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what to make of Kyla Murray
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: now coming back in towards Minnesota tonight. Chicago on Monday
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: night may not have anybody but Case Keenum available to him.
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: What are you, are we seeing a lot of overreactions, Ralph,
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: in your mind here to quarterbacks in week three?
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: Thank God we didn't have to watch a fourth string
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: quarterback for the Falcons game Thursday.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: And that's part of.
• 1:17
  Speaker 4: Our DNA this week.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: So, you know, with some.
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: Health facts, you know, remember this, a college football coach,
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: our quarterback getting hurt is a massive drop off. An
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: NFL quarterback getting hurt is not as big unless your
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: backup does not play the same style. If you have
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: a mobile quarterback and then you don't have a mobile quarterback,
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: most coaches try to bring in someone that can simulate
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: the same offense, but that's not always the case because
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: of injuries and things that happen.
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: So be careful of overreactions.
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: You know, we know at NFL week one to week two,
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: we see these reactions and we will see overreactions with
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: this quarterback thing. Now, you know, to me, dark, Dart's
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: probably worth three, three and a half points in my book.
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: So I'm interested to see, Art, what do you think
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: a Tier B quarterback, I'll call him a Tier B,
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: is worth early in the season?
• 2:14
  Speaker 5: Yeah, Ralph, it's a great point. We talked about it
• 2:16
  Speaker 5: yesterday and I made that point to Prez where, you know,
• 2:18
  Speaker 5: if Dart plays in this game this week, that game's
• 2:21
  Speaker 5: closer to seven. And obviously it's three now. It was
• 2:25
  Speaker 5: three and a half. So you've seen a little tight
• 2:27
  Speaker 5: in money. So, yeah, Dart is like in that three,
• 2:29
  Speaker 5: three and a half range. So I think it's you
• 2:31
  Speaker 5: hit it spot on with that.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Got to be able.
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: I mean, what's the number for Drew Locke? Because all
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: he seems to do is win games. So not all
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: backup quarterbacks are an issue if they understand the system
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: and you got guys that elevate around them. So we're
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: going to learn a lot about some very desperate teams,
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: I think, coming up. In the next week or so here.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: But we talked about some of the NFL moves here, Art.
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: We've seen what are some of the sharp bets that
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: seem to be moving the needle early on here on
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: this Wednesday?
• 3:04
  Speaker 5: Absolutely. I'm going to throw you the baseball for today,
• 3:06
  Speaker 5: and then I'm going to kind of give you a
• 3:07
  Speaker 5: little bit of a rundown of some of the lower
• 3:09
  Speaker 5: tier college football games that we have not hit yet.
• 3:12
  Speaker 5: Baseball today, you got Yankees, Red Sox, Mets. So that's
• 3:16
  Speaker 5: all your sharp side action. Some of the early college
• 3:18
  Speaker 5: football stuff. And like I said, try to do this.
• 3:20
  Speaker 5: Throughout the week, we'll do a lot more tomorrow and
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: Friday as well. But you've seen under money come in
• 3:25
  Speaker 5: on Army under 50.5. UAB took money as high as 10.
• 3:29
  Speaker 5: UCLA also took under money at 59.5. Charlotte, who was
• 3:33
  Speaker 5: good to betters last week, and they bet them down
• 3:35
  Speaker 5: from 20 to 17. This week, they've bet them at
• 3:39
  Speaker 5: plus 14. They also took the over in the UNLV game,
• 3:43
  Speaker 5: over 49.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Interesting. All right. So we got some moves early on here.
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: We've got, of course, a parlay of the day here,
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: which we've been pretty good, Art, over the.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Last week or so.
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: We've crushed it a couple of times here, giving you
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: guys a good opportunity. So a lot of baseball here
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: today as we round out the regular season. Ralph, what
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: are you going to start with here to kick off
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: this parlay of the day?
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: Well, baseball, I've had a bad week with Nerfies.
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: I'm starting to limit them the last couple of days
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: of the season, but I do have a play loaded
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: for today.
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: Still number one in baseball.
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: And I am going to go San Diego LA Dodgers,
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: no run first inning, current line minus a buck 20.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: I kind of like that one. Art, how about you, man?
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: Where are you looking here today?
• 4:32
  Speaker 5: Joe, let's not be modest here. Three in a row
• 4:35
  Speaker 5: on the parlay of the day. So we're kind of cooking,
• 4:38
  Speaker 5: my man. Listen, if you're going to keep giving me
• 4:41
  Speaker 5: plus money with the Astros, I've said it for two months.
• 4:44
  Speaker 5: The Mariners are a rat. That team is so bad.
• 4:48
  Speaker 5: Somehow they're not eliminated mathematically yet. Give me the Astros
• 4:51
  Speaker 5: plus 108.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Astros plus 108. I like it. Yeah, I'll listen.
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: Tampa is probably still celebrating right now after finally closing
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: out winning the East. So I'll take the Yankees and
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: Garrett Cole today at a, at a modest price to
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: minus one 31 40. So I'll take the Yankees to
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: get it done here today in a bounce back spot.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: Big week coming up here, Ralph, because we've got more
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: data points in college football as we head into week four.
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: Got a lot of, obviously, conference matchups, a lot of
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: top 25 matchups coming up this week. And, of course,
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: the NFL, too. Week three, we talked about the injuries.
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: So start where you want. What do we need to
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: know here about the TNA as we head into this
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: treacherous college football and NFL slate?
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: Well, I'm going to.
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: Break down one game that has some TNA, and that
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: is Tennessee and Texas. And then I'm going to have
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: an NFL trend for you guys that may open some eyes.
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: We'll see about that. So we currently have Tennessee plus
• 5:56
  Speaker 4: six and a half against Texas.
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: This is a situation I want to share because it's
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: valid from now through the end of the season. If
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: you've gone through the first couple games of the season
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: and you're undefeated and your opponent's undefeated and you're a
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: home dog like Texas is, guys, those teams, those undefeated
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: home dogs versus a team that is undefeated has gone 17.
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: And 13 straight up. Now, that's 50%.
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: But the average line is plus 5.2. Imagine a situation
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: where you're getting five points and you're winning 50% of
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: those games outright.
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: ATS, by the way, 28-2.
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: It applies to Tennessee this week, as well as Cincinnati
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: against Kansas State. Now, we have conflicting home-road dichotomies in
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: this matchup.
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: Texas has now failed.
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: to cover five straight road games by 10.3 points per game.
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: But Tennessee has failed to cover seven straight home games
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: by 8.5 points per game.
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: What I am going to look at here is the under.
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: And let me share this with you.
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: These two plays are actual client releases that I just loaded.
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: So you are getting two client plays for me. I'm
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: going to play first quarter under 12 and a half
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: And first half, under 27.5. I played him each for 2%.
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: So basically, I'm splitting a 4% best bet play into
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: these two situations. I look at Texas. On the road
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: last year, well, let's see. Arch Manning completed 57.7%. At home, 65%.
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: His YPA on the road, 6.6%. At home, 9.1%. He
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: was sacked 18 times away from home. He was sacked
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: five times in Austin. And his ratio at home, 17-2.
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: His ratio on the road, 7-5. Bad numbers on the road.
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: And it's a Texas team I can't trust. But can
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: we trust Tennessee?
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: Well, we know they have a young quarterback now playing
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: their first top 40 defense.
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: Berman, not a challenge.
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: They rushed for 229, 7.0. Georgia Tech, a bit of
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: a challenge. And running for 299 on the road in
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: Atlanta is impressive, 6.6 yards per carry. And Kennesaw State,
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: they rushed.
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: For 268, 6.5.
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: Texas, McCoy has not proven he could do, excuse me,
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: Manning has not proven he could do anything on the road.
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: Tennessee is going to run the ball. They have run
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: the ball average of 44 times per game, and they've
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: passed for about 27 times per game. Early in the game,
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: they're not going to put this quarterback in harm's way.
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: Give me first quarter under. Give me first half under.
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: And I also lean the home dog. Singing a lot
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: of Rocky Top Saturday early afternoon.
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, both teams, Ralph, are very run-oriented this season here.
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: Everyone thinks of Josh Heupel as being this up-tempo, you know, monster, like, oh,
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: hurry up, get him.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: But he didn't have that.
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: He's got a freshman young quarterback here in his first
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: big test, and they have run the ball pretty well.
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: And same thing with Arch. I mean, what they did
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: to Ohio State on the ground, why is that? Is
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: that not repeatable? It feels like that could be exactly
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: the game plan here.
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, you know, and it's funny that we'll see
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: what happens, but the Longhorns' entire offense changed when they
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: went up-tempo. And Ohio State just wore out. You saw
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: those defensive players get hurt. You saw them missing tackles
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: late in the game. So the tempo Ohio State wanted,
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: that big lead caused Texas to go up-tempo, and it
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: ended up getting them the victory.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: Yep, absolutely. A lot of that on the ground, too.
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: So it should be an interesting matchup there, top 25
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: versus top 25. What other trends and angles you got
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: for us here, Ralph?
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: Well, let's give you an NFL trend to end this
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: segment for today.
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: And, oh, yeah, by the way, our awesome guys that
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: run our media, I loaded this clip yesterday. It has
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: over 200,000 views between TikTok, our YouTube TV, and Instagram.
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: And it's simply this. We have an NFL team off
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: an overtime game on a short week. Guess what?
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: Detroit was in that exact same role last week, and
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: the bill's covered. Those teams, like Green Bay this Thursday,
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: have gone 5-27 against the spread. That is 15.6%. But
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: listen to this. If that team is off an overtime
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: game on a short week and is a favorite, they
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: have gone 0-15 against the spread, and they have failed
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: to cover by 12.5 points per game.
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: A massive trend to fade Green Bay. And I'll throw
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: out one more for the Falcons.
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to get to the Falcons on the window,
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: but this would certainly keep me off Green Bay.
• 11:18
  Speaker 4: If a team on the road is playing a non-division.
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: Foe and they're off a home loss by 25 points
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: or more, they fail to cover by 25 points or more,
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: getting totally embarrassed at home and now going on the road,
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: those teams have gone 71 and 31, 70% against the spread.
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: And if they're on a short week, like Atlanta is,
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: they've gone 14-3, 82.4%. Off those bad performances, those NFL
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: players want to play quickly.
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: Off a good performance, they actually would have the extra rest.
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: Makes total sense. You love those, right, Art? I love
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: those trends when it makes total sense here. Yeah, Thursday
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: night should be fun. And another, you know, I didn't
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: know this, Ralph. I came across this yesterday, too.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: In the NFC.
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: Teams that have started 0-3 have not made the playoffs
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: in over 30 years. 30 years in the NFC.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: So if the Falcons start 0-3, bye-bye.
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: If the Bucs go 0-3, bye-bye to the playoffs.
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: Well, I saw 0-2, I think, was 15.2%. One of
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: the networks had that up. That wasn't me looking that up. 2-0,
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: I think you're, what, 75% to make the playoffs?
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Much better.
• 12:32
  Speaker 5: And 0-2, you're 15%.
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: Yep. Yep.
• 12:34
  Speaker 5: I think 0-3, you're like 2%.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: It's crazy, yeah.
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: In the NFC, it doesn't happen. It hasn't happened for
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: 30 years if they start 0-3. So it's kind of crazy, Ralph.
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: Must-win games, must-win. Here we are in September, at the
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: end of September, and are we talking about must-win games
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: here for teams?
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Pretty much.
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: But, you know, we've also seen some divisions like, you know,
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: NFC South last time, where you can lose three games
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: and bounce back.
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: You know, does Tampa Bay have that luxury?
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: Maybe.
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: Carolina won, but hey, the Saints.
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: Off a couple late wins, and Atlanta, they're in their
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: division where you can go 0-3, and the division winner
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: is likely only going to have nine wins. So if
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: any team in any division can do it, it would
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: be them in the South.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the AFC for sure there.
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: Ralph, what do you got going on over at your
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: page at wagertalk.com for us?
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: Well, off a 2-3 weekend, but I'm going to put
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: an asterisk on that. One loss was NC State. The
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: other loss was South Alabama giving away a 21-yard touchdown
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: pass on the final play of the game to win
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: by six, playing six and a half. So I'm very
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: pleased with the two and three, with the way it ended.
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: Hit my 5% total. I'll be loading another 5% total
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: this week. Remember, Football Weekend Warrior, $ 49.
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: All of Saturday's college football, all of Sunday's NFL, including
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: a 5%, that's just $ 35. And if you're looking for
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: my Nerfy play of the day, it's available now. WT.buzz
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: backslash RM.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: Great stuff, Ralph.
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: As always, my man, enjoy the games. Let's no more
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: of that North Carolina State crap, please. And we'll see
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: you next week for more Trends and Angles. Thank you,
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: Ralph Michaels.
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: Thanks, guys. Have a great week.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: You too, man.
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: Enjoy it there. All right, we got much to get
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: to here. We're going to talk some college football week
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: for looks.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: Here and see.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: Get some thoughts here from Art and I. We'll also
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: do an NFL Week 3 side pick and Major League
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: Baseball rundown coming your way. But let's first, Art, do
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: a little business of our own. We know what Ralph's
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: got going on over at wagertalk.com. How about you, my man?
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: What's locked and loaded for this week?
• 14:49
  Speaker 5: Nothing locked and loaded for today. We were really good
• 14:51
  Speaker 5: on $ 5 Tuesday, went 2-0 in MLB, so still grinding
• 14:54
  Speaker 5: out the MLB. I think I'm going to pass today
• 14:57
  Speaker 5: in MLB, but later today I should have a college
• 14:59
  Speaker 5: football and NFL, if not packages, at least plays, but
• 15:05
  Speaker 5: looking to get probably packages up for both. So listen,
• 15:08
  Speaker 5: as always, wt.buzz.com, go check me out.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it's pretty simple, guys.
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: You can just go to the page there and look
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: up Art, get everything that you need to do here
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: at wagertalk.com.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: In the meantime, I know Prez said.
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: He's got a 5% best bet in college football that
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: he is posting up. I have two 4% NFL plays
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: that are locked and loaded on my page at wagertalk.com.
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: Six-in-one weekend, huge, as we're starting to cruise again in
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: both college football and the NFL. And as soon as
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: we're done with this show, Art, there is one game left.
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: I'm just waiting to hear one thing. If I hear
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: one thing and it's correct, there will be a 5%
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: college football best bet coming up as well. Either way,
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: it'll be posted by today. If it's not a 5%,
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: it'll be a 4%. But I think I'm going to
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: get some good news here shortly. So that's over at WT.buzz
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: forward slash JR. Same thing for Art. Make sure you
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: head over to his page and get ready. Let's talk
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: some college football here. Art, week four is almost upon us. Listen,
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: a lot of great matchups here. Put up or shut
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: up time, I think, for some teams, right? I love
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: this time of year. So we're going to– contenders and pretenders.
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: We say it all the time, Art, right? These top
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: 25 matchups are tremendous, right? What does LSU do in
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: a bounce-back spot laying almost double digits– What about Ole
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: Miss coming off of in the ultimate letdown spot? You know,
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: having to go to the Swamp in Florida, just winning
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: a huge game on the road against Auburn.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: We talk Texas, obviously.
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: What is, I mean, what does Texas Tech do against
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: a nobody in Sam Houston State?
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: But should they be laying those many points?
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: There's a lot of questions in week four coming up
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: here in college. I think that we're going to learn
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: a little something about Oregon and USC too, aren't we?
• 17:12
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, you mentioned those two big games where
• 17:15
  Speaker 5: Tennessee and Florida both get those teams in their building.
• 17:21
  Speaker 5: And I don't know if we know much about what
• 17:24
  Speaker 5: Florida and Tennessee really are. I think we believe they
• 17:27
  Speaker 5: could be good teams, but we're going to learn this
• 17:29
  Speaker 5: weekend because they get those two teams in their building,
• 17:33
  Speaker 5: games that they can win. Point spreads indicate that they're
• 17:36
  Speaker 5: both under a touchdown, so they're right in the realm
• 17:40
  Speaker 5: of those teams can pull the upset. So I think
• 17:42
  Speaker 5: we're going to learn about those teams. The Oregon-USC one
• 17:45
  Speaker 5: is very fascinating because USC has kind of flown under
• 17:48
  Speaker 5: the radar a little bit as far as USC goes.
• 17:51
  Speaker 5: And Oregon, we just don't know. They play two big–
• 17:54
  Speaker 5: not big boys, but two really good teams to start
• 17:57
  Speaker 5: the year that were real teams. Then they won by
• 17:59
  Speaker 5: 100 against Portland State. So what is Oregon? Like I said,
• 18:03
  Speaker 5: they're still power-rated pretty high, Joe. I mean, they're maybe
• 18:06
  Speaker 5: not power-rated the way they were entering the year, but–
• 18:09
  Speaker 5: Like I said yesterday, and I'm going to say it again,
• 18:11
  Speaker 5: that spread is indicating that Oregon still has a high
• 18:16
  Speaker 5: power rating.
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: They do, which is why one of my favorite plays
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: of the weekend, and I don't care because I've seen
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: enough of Lincoln Riley, especially coming off a game against
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: Rutgers in which Rutgers and USC, 132 plays, 921 yards,
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: and 77 points.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: I can assure.
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: You that Oregon is not going to be slower tempo-wise
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: and run fewer plays than what Rutgers did. The amount
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: of points that are coming in this game are going
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: to be astronomical. Feels like a high number. I saw
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: originally 59.5, and it's already been bet up, I think,
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: to 61, 61.5 right now.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: I don't care.
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: Both of these teams have played to the over the
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: last time they played in the Dan Lanning era. There
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: is no way... I trust either defense. You want to talk,
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: this will be the most entertaining game in the world.
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: And it's going to be 35-32, Art. It's going to
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: be something in that range there. But if you don't
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: think one of these teams, it might be first team
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: to 40, I think, to win. And if that's the case...
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: I am not sweating out an under with USC at home,
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: getting three against Oregon. Not, I don't think that defense
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: is fixed, but I do know they can put up
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: some points against a.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: USC, Gary Patterson. Exactly. Why did they bring you in again?
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry.
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: Cause you can't get to the quarterback. You can't sack anybody.
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: I think it's going to be a free for all.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: Wouldn't my, 80s, Art. That's how crazy this game's going
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: to be.
• 19:53
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, the total shows that, right? A total
• 19:55
  Speaker 5: that's climbed three, three and a half points. I think
• 19:58
  Speaker 5: I even saw 62. So obviously, and we have plenty
• 20:01
  Speaker 5: of time for that to continue to climb up so
• 20:04
  Speaker 5: yeah i'm with you i actually think too and i'm
• 20:06
  Speaker 5: not saying it's going to be a player even something
• 20:08
  Speaker 5: i get to the window i think oregon is still
• 20:11
  Speaker 5: a team despite that bad defense i still have value
• 20:15
  Speaker 5: on oregon and still kind of lean oregon in this
• 20:17
  Speaker 5: game but like i said i don't know if i'm
• 20:19
  Speaker 5: going to make it a client play or anything it
• 20:21
  Speaker 5: just i'm just starting to think like Okay, I think
• 20:24
  Speaker 5: Oregon here is ripe to really have a big performance
• 20:28
  Speaker 5: against a USC team that they can put points up against.
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, listen, I think it's going to be fun. We'll
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: learn a little something about each of those teams. But
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: what we already know about them is they can't play defense.
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: They can't stop a nosebleed. So give me the over
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: on that one. All right, NFL art coming up week
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: three on Wednesdays. We talk about a side each week
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: that we like in the NFL. Where are you looking
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: at for a side here this week?
• 20:57
  Speaker 5: So, you know, the minus three at home used to
• 20:59
  Speaker 5: be that's what it was. And then it feels like
• 21:02
  Speaker 5: it's changed over this last five to ten years where
• 21:05
  Speaker 5: the home teams are really now two and a half.
• 21:08
  Speaker 5: And I think the Saints sitting there at three shows
• 21:11
  Speaker 5: the All I need to know, that line is very
• 21:13
  Speaker 5: telling to me. Now, if it goes to three and
• 21:15
  Speaker 5: a half, I'm not going to be as interested. But
• 21:17
  Speaker 5: I like the Saints coming home. I like the way
• 21:19
  Speaker 5: they play. Listen, the Raiders have been really good. They've
• 21:22
  Speaker 5: gotten off to a really good start. I believe both
• 21:24
  Speaker 5: teams are 2-0 ATS. But I just think the fact
• 21:27
  Speaker 5: that it's not three and a half yet, I'll be
• 21:28
  Speaker 5: monitoring it here over the next couple of days. But
• 21:32
  Speaker 5: I like the Saints at home minus three.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: Kind of like the Saints, man.
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, Tyler Shuck is now leading in every statistical
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: passing category there is, and everyone's laughing at it.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: We'll see.
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: Callum Moore doing a hell of a job there with
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: the Saints. I am going to go where we did.
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: I told you earlier, I could not believe this statistic,
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: but it makes sense because the NFC forever has always
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: been a much tougher conference than the AFC, which has
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: always been very top heavy. 30-plus years since a team
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: starts 0-3 coming out of the NFC and makes it
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: to the postseason. That is exactly what the Tampa Bay
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: Bucs are facing.
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: They are at home.
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: Everyone, every week, Art, one of my favorite games to
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: play is who's going to be the quarterback of the
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: Vikings today because we never have any idea. But apparently
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: it's Kyla Murray who still can't see over the offensive line.
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: So I think backs against the wall at home as
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: a small dog. Give me Tampa Bay. Listen, Baker Mayfield
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: missed a ton of wide-open throws in that game last
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: week against the Browns.
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: Ridiculous.
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: Wide-open guys he was overshooting, Amar. They could have scored
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: a million points in that game, and Baker just wasn't good.
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: I expect him back against the wall to be much
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: better at home. I expect the defense to do More
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: than enough to be able to limit whatever Kyla Murray
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: or Carson Wentz or whoever else is bringing in. I
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: think back against the wall must win. Give me the
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay as a dog here this week.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: No, Art?
• 23:13
  Speaker 5: I think Minnesota's worse with Kyla Murray.
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: I do, too.
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: I really do.
• 23:17
  Speaker 5: Like, I'm not trying to make Carson Wentz out to
• 23:19
  Speaker 5: be Joe Montana, but... No, he's not good. I that's
• 23:24
  Speaker 5: why I was down on Minnesota coming in the year
• 23:26
  Speaker 5: because Murray was going to be their quarterback. Now Wentz
• 23:28
  Speaker 5: has won them two games. I think putting Murray in
• 23:31
  Speaker 5: is now downgrading Minnesota for me. And you're right. You
• 23:35
  Speaker 5: can't start on three seasons over. We all know we
• 23:37
  Speaker 5: had our Tampa laughs on Monday because we had them
• 23:40
  Speaker 5: in the survivor. But now that you're catching one, I
• 23:43
  Speaker 5: don't hate that.
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's the best way to look at
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: this game here is that, now listen, I don't generally love, well,
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: they have to win. Well, that usually means they won't, Art.
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: But I think they're going to win at home. I
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: think they're going to win this game here this weekend.
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: All right, we've got a Major League Baseball rundown to
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: go through here. We've got some afternoon baseball games that
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: mean absolutely nothing here.
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: We've got a doubleheader, I think, also at some point here.
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: Let's start with the second game between the Blue Jays
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: and the Orioles. This was rained out yesterday, so the
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: first game is going to– feature Bassett and Scherzer. It
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: doesn't matter what happens in the first game to you
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: for the second game here. Gibson is going in the
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: second game for the Orioles. And I believe Van Eck,
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: it's going to be a bullpen game for the Blue Jays.
• 24:37
  Speaker 5: No, I mean, listen, if the games mattered, it would,
• 24:40
  Speaker 5: I know technically Toronto's not eliminated, but Preston said it
• 24:45
  Speaker 5: all week. I'm with him. Toronto is dead. Baltimore's going
• 24:48
  Speaker 5: to play this out. I lean Baltimore in both spots.
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you there. That's exactly the way I
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: would look.
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: Brewers and the Phillies here. Henderson versus Nola. Pretty good
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup, but again.
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: What does this.
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: Mean for the Brewers? Not a whole heck of a lot.
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: The Phillies, however, do not want to get caught by
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: the Padres. So call me crazy. I still think Nola
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: at home gives the Phillies a better opportunity.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: To win this game.
• 25:19
  Speaker 5: Yeah, Phillies and under for me.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and you said it.
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: You said the Red Sox were on the Sharps radar
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: with Sonny Gray going up against Forster Griffin. The Guardians
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: need to keep winning, although that didn't work out all
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: that well.
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: No, it did, actually. They came back and won last night.
• 25:35
  Speaker 5: Yeah, they won last night.
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: Oh, yeah.
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, not before a total heart attack here. And that
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: was a heart attack. I'm on the Yankees with Garrett
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: Cole against Seymour. I think the Rays are still partying.
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: What do you think?
• 25:48
  Speaker 5: Yeah, sharps are on them too. That's always an angle
• 25:50
  Speaker 5: that we like to kind of attack. Doesn't always work,
• 25:53
  Speaker 5: but it's one of those where Tampa slayed the Dragon again.
• 25:55
  Speaker 5: They beat the Yankees. Now they can just cruise to
• 25:58
  Speaker 5: the end of the season.
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: That was a second of a doubleheader, by the way.
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: They didn't sweep the Yankees yesterday. Chris Sale on the
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: mound going up against the Reds and Abbott here. And
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: the Reds are pretty much toast across the board. We
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: already know that. So what are we thinking here in
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: this one tonight? I believe the Reds won 4-0 last
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: night at Truist. I got to believe a bounce back
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: here for the Braves?
• 26:26
  Speaker 5: Definitely a bounce back. I would even look Reds team
• 26:28
  Speaker 5: total under.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: Ooh, Reds team total under. I like that.
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: White Sox put up two touchdowns last night, but the
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: Royals went almost for a two-point conversion. 14-11, I think,
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: is the score there. We had a few runs last night.
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: What do you think we're going to get in this
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: one here tonight?
• 26:45
  Speaker 5: Yeah, the White Sox had a must-win, tried to blow
• 26:47
  Speaker 5: that game badly. I'm still on the White Sox. They
• 26:50
  Speaker 5: were my play in the parlay of the day yesterday.
• 26:52
  Speaker 5: They have to continue to win because obviously the Guardians
• 26:54
  Speaker 5: continue to win. So I'm still on the White Sox.
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know what the Cubs were doing last night.
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: I said it. The line was six, six and a half.
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: Made no sense. And the Marlins win 8-2 last night
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: over the Cubs. What do we think happens here today?
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: Gaussman on the mound. Gusto for the Marlins.
• 27:12
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, probably a bounce back for the Cubs.
• 27:14
  Speaker 5: But at the same time, we always talk about what
• 27:17
  Speaker 5: does it really mean for Chicago? But listen, the Marlins
• 27:20
  Speaker 5: are not a good team. So the Cubs probably should win.
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: I don't know what the hell the Rangers did last night.
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: It didn't make any sense to me, that line.
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: But then Evaldi comes in at a sixth inning and
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: the Mets light him up. Rangers lost 6-3 last night.
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: Not good.
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: But tonight they got to take on McLean. It's not
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: much better here.
• 27:41
  Speaker 5: No. No, it's really not. And that was a brutal
• 27:44
  Speaker 5: loss because obviously Houston went, you know, they smoked Seattle
• 27:48
  Speaker 5: last night. Now that you've got to go up against
• 27:51
  Speaker 5: the Met Ace and it's basically a pick-em, I would
• 27:53
  Speaker 5: lean Texas because they need the game. But hard to
• 27:56
  Speaker 5: trust them. Maybe even look at Met's first five.
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: I don't know what the hell. They're the most frustrating
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: team in the world. You mentioned the Astros. Good win
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: last night. They're facing Kirby tonight in Seattle.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: What are you thinking?
• 28:10
  Speaker 5: I told you. That team is a rat. You're going
• 28:13
  Speaker 5: to give me a plus money with the Astros? Give
• 28:14
  Speaker 5: me the Astros.
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: They are. Yeah, they really are.
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: And the Dodgers blanked the Padres last night in a
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: bullpen game. Now they got Yamamoto going here against Robbie Ray.
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: What are we thinking here? Total sitting around eight.
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: And a half.
• 28:28
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I thought San Diego was actually worth a look
• 28:31
  Speaker 5: last night because they had King on the mound. They
• 28:33
  Speaker 5: were getting plus money in the bullpen game. I was
• 28:35
  Speaker 5: dead wrong on that. Obviously, San Diego... keeps playing hard,
• 28:39
  Speaker 5: keeps winning. What does it mean to the Dodgers, even
• 28:41
  Speaker 5: though they have their ace.
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: On the mound?
• 28:42
  Speaker 5: You know, maybe Padres plus one and a half, something
• 28:47
  Speaker 5: like that.
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: I still think that's what I like the Phillies even
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: more tonight here in that battle there for the number
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: two and three seeds in the wildcard section of it anyway.
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: So there it is.
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: There's your Major League Baseball rundown here as we wind
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: out the regular season and we get ready, of course.
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: For more contest picks coming up this week, our Thursday
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: Night Football tomorrow, we got to start deciding what we're
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: going to do here for our Circa Millions, which, by
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: the way, how are we doing in the Circa Millions
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: right now?
• 29:22
  Speaker 5: Well, listen, update on both contests. And, you know, obviously,
• 29:24
  Speaker 5: I'll be sending you the college later because those... Numbers
• 29:28
  Speaker 5: come out on Wednesday. In the college, there's been three weeks.
• 29:31
  Speaker 5: We've gone four and three every week. So we're sitting
• 29:34
  Speaker 5: at 12 and nine. Now, the room for error is
• 29:37
  Speaker 5: a little bit smaller in that context because they only
• 29:39
  Speaker 5: pay the top 10 so you know you you gotta
• 29:42
  Speaker 5: work your way into that top 10 in a field
• 29:45
  Speaker 5: that's about 800 but right now i think we're you
• 29:48
  Speaker 5: know we're in the 90s but listen long way to
• 29:50
  Speaker 5: go but hey we keep winning circa millions we've been
• 29:52
  Speaker 5: great we went three and two and then five and
• 29:54
  Speaker 5: oh So, obviously, long way to go there, too, but
• 29:56
  Speaker 5: we're sitting at 8-2. So, really big week. We've got
• 29:59
  Speaker 5: to follow that 5-0 up with another winning week.
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: All right, let's get another 5-0. I'd ask you about Survivor,
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: but I know you'd only end up... listening to the
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: Prez and that would be the end of that. So
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: I will give you guys my pick for Survivor since
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: I'm the only one still standing in it and let
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: you know what's going on tomorrow as well. Hit the like,
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: subscribe button. Make sure you've become part of the WagerTalk
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: TV family. Art and I will for sure be back
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: again tomorrow for another edition of the best betting show ever.
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: Make sure you visit his page, my page, and the
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: Prez's page. over at wager talk.com. Thanks again to Ralph Michaels.
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: And we'll see you guys tomorrow here on the best
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: betting show ever.
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: Good luck.