Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / XRP BREAKS $1 as Cracks Begins To Show π Make or Break Zone π₯
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: XRP about to break a dollar today.
- 0:01Speaker 2: We're going to be breaking this down to give you
- 0:03Speaker 2: a little bit of an insight of where this may
- 0:05Speaker 2: be happening and why, and let's.
- 0:07Speaker 1: Just get right into it.
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- 0:43Speaker 1: Let's go take a look.
- 0:44Speaker 2: At the chart, because if you look at XRP right now,
- 0:46Speaker 2: I am looking at the weekly and this is the
- 0:49Speaker 2: area in which I think we are at a point
- 0:52Speaker 2: of no return either XRP is going to get a
- 0:56Speaker 2: bounce here, and I had garethon last week. He seems
- 0:58Speaker 2: to think a little bit more bullets on this. However,
- 1:01Speaker 2: if this does break the dollar, I think this is
- 1:04Speaker 2: where you have to look at a possible exit. Maybe
- 1:07Speaker 2: around ninety six ninety seven is that the number that
- 1:09Speaker 2: would continue to push your faith on XRP. Let's go
- 1:13Speaker 2: to good news right here. This of course gets into gmbank. This,
- 1:16Speaker 2: of course is one of the first regional banks in
- 1:19Speaker 2: Korea now deploying ripple payments. This will go into cross
- 1:22Speaker 2: border remittances, settling, transfers, et cetera. All of this is
- 1:25Speaker 2: going to be available and it's going to happen now.
- 1:28Speaker 1: The question will be.
- 1:29Speaker 2: Is can they get real uptake here Korea South Korea
- 1:32Speaker 2: being one of the biggest holders of XARP in general.
- 1:35Speaker 2: When you look at number of payments though, this is
- 1:38Speaker 2: where it gets interesting. Number of payments from one account
- 1:41Speaker 2: to another has been declining over the last year.
- 1:45Speaker 1: And if you look.
- 1:46Speaker 2: At further into this x OR payment volume from one
- 1:49Speaker 2: account to another also falling significantly. So these two signals
- 1:55Speaker 2: start to push into two metrics. You should be tracking
- 1:59Speaker 2: more distantly. You guys can jump over to XRP scan
- 2:02Speaker 2: to do that. If you go over to DeFi Lama
- 2:04Speaker 2: and look at dex volume also falling and total volume
- 2:08Speaker 2: locked also falling or continuing to fall.
- 2:12Speaker 1: As we see this in comparison to what's going on.
- 2:15Speaker 2: With RWA's So let's jump over to and take a
- 2:18Speaker 2: look at our LUSD on the RWA league table. You
- 2:21Speaker 2: can kind of see this right here XRP ledger appears
- 2:24Speaker 2: to have most of the transaction activity and ethereum coming
- 2:28Speaker 2: in right underneath it. However, when you look at trying
- 2:32Speaker 2: to trace this down, it does not appear that that
- 2:35Speaker 2: is the case. So the way that we trace this
- 2:37Speaker 2: down is just looking at Visa stablecoin transactions, and this
- 2:41Speaker 2: of course is ur l USD trading on ethereum, and
- 2:45Speaker 2: even now in August of this year, not even complete
- 2:48Speaker 2: month here, but if you even go back here into
- 2:51Speaker 2: last month, it was at four hund and fifty seven million.
- 2:53Speaker 2: Right here we're midmonth and hovering around three hundred and
- 2:56Speaker 2: twelve million.
- 2:57Speaker 1: This is on ethereum ur l USD.
- 2:58Speaker 2: So you look at that and then over here on
- 3:01Speaker 2: decks if you look at roos and XRP only right now,
- 3:05Speaker 2: transactions volume of about one point five million and only
- 3:08Speaker 2: two hundred and thirty three traders, So I don't see
- 3:11Speaker 2: that happening on the ledger that along with other things
- 3:14Speaker 2: that are happening in the market. You look at Ripple
- 3:17Speaker 2: restoring XRP Ledger after a sixty four minute outage. This
- 3:20Speaker 2: course happened back in February of twenty twenty five.
- 3:23Speaker 1: But now let's take a look at this.
- 3:24Speaker 2: XRP Ledger's latest version faces multiple technical issues, and this,
- 3:29Speaker 2: of course is post launched.
- 3:30Speaker 1: This happened in June of this year.
- 3:32Speaker 2: Here's another one right here, This one happened on August second,
- 3:34Speaker 2: Ripple pushing another Ledger note upgrade. Then you've got XRP
- 3:38Speaker 2: bridge that was drained for two hundred thousand. This was
- 3:41Speaker 2: after software mistook fake deposits as real ones. Then, of
- 3:45Speaker 2: course Axelar launches on Soul. So Soul is now live
- 3:49Speaker 2: on the XRP Ledger, and you would think this is
- 3:52Speaker 2: going to be a big deal. Now, granted it's very
- 3:54Speaker 2: early for this to take place, but if you look
- 3:56Speaker 2: at the actual transactions over an XP market and you
- 3:59Speaker 2: just go in and try to sell ten thousand in
- 4:02Speaker 2: URLUSD just not there right there, the amount would be
- 4:05Speaker 2: minus sixty nine percent right there, you'd only retain about
- 4:08Speaker 2: three K and soul.
- 4:09Speaker 1: So this tells me activity is very low, if any.
- 4:13Speaker 2: So when you consider bridges as really the exposure, XRP
- 4:18Speaker 2: only has two and that's going to be Flair and
- 4:20Speaker 2: of course axel are And these are the issues that
- 4:23Speaker 2: we're facing, and I think that the community is going
- 4:25Speaker 2: to be facing right now.
- 4:26Speaker 1: All right, so let's take a look at the ETF.
- 4:28Speaker 2: So when you look at ETFs right now, this is
- 4:30Speaker 2: the breakdown one point four billion versus one point eight
- 4:33Speaker 2: on Solana. And this is the question is why is
- 4:36Speaker 2: Salana having a higher percentage? And when you take a
- 4:39Speaker 2: look at Bitwise's crypto leader board, this is the constituents
- 4:43Speaker 2: of the bitwise ten large cap Crypto index from twenty
- 4:47Speaker 2: nineteen to present and how long they've stayed in the
- 4:49Speaker 2: top ten. Bitcoin and course holds in there, Ethereum holds
- 4:54Speaker 2: in there, Solana holding in there.
- 4:57Speaker 1: As well as one of the longer.
- 4:58Speaker 2: Runs, and then XRP somewhat newer starting in twenty twenty three,
- 5:04Speaker 2: so this could get bumped out of the top ten
- 5:07Speaker 2: quickly out of even bit wise. So look at that,
- 5:11Speaker 2: and then you look at this right here, and that
- 5:13Speaker 2: is Standard Charter. They cut their XRP target by sixty
- 5:16Speaker 2: five percent the bank slash to twenty twenty six XRP
- 5:20Speaker 2: forecast up to two eighty down from that. So I've
- 5:23Speaker 2: got a clip here I want to explain because this
- 5:26Speaker 2: was actually the interview that we had with Standard Charter,
- 5:28Speaker 2: and this is their reasons why they actually downgraded it.
- 5:32Speaker 1: Take a look.
- 5:34Speaker 2: There was another price target that you guys put out,
- 5:37Speaker 2: and this was in reference to XRP. You had slashed
- 5:40Speaker 2: your twenty twenty six XRP target from eight bucks down
- 5:44Speaker 2: to two eighty.
- 5:46Speaker 3: Why at some safe we want to have either a
- 5:48Speaker 3: change in how the value is passed through to tokenholders
- 5:51Speaker 3: and or possibly even just more communication around how the
- 5:57Speaker 3: value passes through would also be helpful, something that the
- 6:00Speaker 3: smaller uniswaps ANDAs and MorphOS have not really had to do.
- 6:04Speaker 3: They've just had to turn on the switches or not
- 6:07Speaker 3: at various times. So a little bit simple, simpler business model,
- 6:10Speaker 3: I guess for those.
- 6:11Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure, all right, So what he was talking
- 6:14Speaker 2: about was the communications side of things and if you
- 6:17Speaker 2: guys go over to Ripple's own Q one twenty twenty
- 6:21Speaker 2: five XRP Markets report.
- 6:24Speaker 1: This was something that has been out there before.
- 6:26Speaker 2: I think we've even probably talked about this, but after
- 6:29Speaker 2: careful consideration, Ripple made the decision to sunset the report
- 6:33Speaker 2: and it's that's in its current form starting Q two
- 6:36Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. Now let's look at that, because there
- 6:39Speaker 2: are some points behind this that you have to consider,
- 6:42Speaker 2: because this is basically explained to you in all of
- 6:45Speaker 2: the market how they were going, and that's exactly what
- 6:47Speaker 2: standard Charter was talking about.
- 6:49Speaker 1: So let's go to the most recent data right here.
- 6:52Speaker 1: This is a couple of weeks back XRP.
- 6:55Speaker 2: Ripple ended up locking another seven hundred million of XRP
- 6:59Speaker 2: back into as grow after it released the standard one billion,
- 7:03Speaker 2: and then they cut the net new supply to just
- 7:06Speaker 2: three hundred million in tokens. All right, So with that
- 7:09Speaker 2: three hundred million, you wonder where that's going to be going.
- 7:13Speaker 1: So let's take a look at the stable.
- 7:14Speaker 2: Coin market cap for XRP RLUSD on XRP Ledger and
- 7:19Speaker 2: on ethereum. You can kind of see the volume we've
- 7:22Speaker 2: shown here, but if you go back into the August timeframe,
- 7:26Speaker 2: there is an eerie movement from around one point four
- 7:31Speaker 2: billion right there to one point seven billion, And of
- 7:34Speaker 2: course that's the point that I'm getting at, is that
- 7:36Speaker 2: three hundred million is this going back into RLUSD. That
- 7:40Speaker 2: is a concern that I think has to be addressed,
- 7:43Speaker 2: and it might be the issue that Standard Charter was
- 7:45Speaker 2: looking at in terms of transparency coming out of Ripple
- 7:49Speaker 2: of how to deal with this. Just as a reminder,
- 7:52Speaker 2: this was the period in which this flat line right
- 7:55Speaker 2: here was when they stopped reporting on the market updates.
- 7:59Speaker 2: So it's just why do it then? Why go into that?
- 8:02Speaker 2: I understand maybe there's many of you that will argue
- 8:05Speaker 2: the SEC issues, there's all sorts of but all that's over,
- 8:09Speaker 2: you know, this would be a time I would look
- 8:11Speaker 2: at to be totally transparent with the industry, totally transparent
- 8:14Speaker 2: with investors, and really get into understanding kind of the
- 8:18Speaker 2: future of what Ripple is really trying to do as
- 8:21Speaker 2: a whole. Let's go, let's kind of end it with
- 8:23Speaker 2: this right here. And that's in reference to clarity, because
- 8:26Speaker 2: whether you Trump's going to be in the meeting there
- 8:28Speaker 2: this week with Brad garling House and along with other
- 8:32Speaker 2: crypto leaders. But I think the point is is that
- 8:35Speaker 2: Ripple put a lot of money into Clarity.
- 8:37Speaker 1: If it doesn't go through.
- 8:39Speaker 2: You know, it was basically a waste of those funds,
- 8:42Speaker 2: and I get it you have to kind of defend
- 8:44Speaker 2: the market. But if it does go through, maybe this
- 8:46Speaker 2: thing of course changes everything going forward for Ripple. So
- 8:50Speaker 2: when you look at the chart, this is the thing
- 8:51Speaker 2: that concerns me. This is the weekly right here, hovering
- 8:55Speaker 2: right now around a dollar, and I think that ninety
- 8:57Speaker 2: six to a dollar range is the point of no return,
- 9:01Speaker 2: as this starts to near an area where you may
- 9:04Speaker 2: see civil war, and that's everything from XRP, Ledger builders
- 9:07Speaker 2: to note operators, all of that, because it could retrace
- 9:11Speaker 2: back down to the issue that really was more Postgensler,
- 9:15Speaker 2: a whole different situation panting out right now. If you
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