Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA DFS - UFC 308 | October 6, 2024 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

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MMA DFS - UFC 308 | October 6, 2024 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:06
Speaker 1: Fall systems go clear, you're lifting.
0:37
Speaker 2: What is going on?
0:38
Speaker 3: Everybody Happy Thursday afternoon, happy, whatever day time you are watching.
0:43
Speaker 3: What a card we have, Big Marlee, d FS wise phenomenal,
0:48
Speaker 3: just real life phenomenal. Some of the best fights you
0:51
Speaker 3: can draw. To Poria, Max Holloway. I don't think you
0:54
Speaker 3: can really make better fights than that. I always love
0:57
Speaker 3: watching my man Chamaiah fights a lot of other fights.
1:00
Speaker 3: We're an Abu Dhabi, so no women's fights, and we
1:03
Speaker 3: got thirteen man and two hundred k up top ten
1:06
Speaker 3: am Eastern Saturday mornings, so definitely remember that gets your
1:10
Speaker 3: lineups in the night before or the morning of two
1:14
Speaker 3: five rounders, one title fight, two hundred k up top,
1:17
Speaker 3: probably doing big Marlin good.
1:19
Speaker 4: Yeah, looking forward to this card for sure, especially the
1:23
Speaker 4: Holloway Taporia fight. Cannot wait for that one. But yeah,
1:26
Speaker 4: two hundred k up top, thirteen fights, hopefully that stays.
1:30
Speaker 4: I think it's a solid DFS card. There's not a
1:33
Speaker 4: whole lot of fades on this one, so I think
1:35
Speaker 4: there's lots of ways to go. I don't think ownership
1:37
Speaker 4: will get too crazy other than the championship fights, so
1:41
Speaker 4: I'm looking forward to. Hopefully we can have a shipper
1:44
Speaker 4: this weekend.
1:46
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you, like right away, no favorite, or
1:50
Speaker 3: there's one massive, massive favorite.
1:52
Speaker 2: I'll make that too.
1:53
Speaker 3: Far Red bosh Rot has taken about two dollars since
1:56
Speaker 3: I looked a couple hours ago. So two huge favorites
1:59
Speaker 3: minus eight eight hundred for far Reid, minus nine hundred
2:02
Speaker 3: for Kennedy. But even though Farreied's minus eight hundred, like
2:06
Speaker 3: when we go fight by fight, we'll talk about it obviously,
2:08
Speaker 3: but inside the disness, prop isn't great. He's not a
2:11
Speaker 3: notorious great scorer. And then Kennedy by far in a
2:15
Speaker 3: tier of his own at ninety seven hundred, him and
2:18
Speaker 3: Faried in terms of pricing when you get both five
2:20
Speaker 3: round favorites tamaiav and Ilia in the high eight k's
2:24
Speaker 3: all three mid tier fights seventy seven hundred and eighty
2:27
Speaker 3: five hundred are expected to finish.
2:29
Speaker 2: So I do think Balance.
2:30
Speaker 3: Bill will be a little more popular than Stars and Scrubs.
2:33
Speaker 2: But again, we'll go fight by fight. Don't get me wrong.
2:36
Speaker 3: Kennedy at minus nine hundred will get ownership, but I
2:40
Speaker 3: think you can play both title fights because like you said,
2:43
Speaker 3: thirteen fights is great. The ownership after that is really
2:46
Speaker 3: spread out. He can leave money, he can mix in
2:48
Speaker 3: really low and fighter. I think plenty of ways to
2:51
Speaker 3: eat chalk in couple spots and get different. So that's
2:54
Speaker 3: my broad slate overview, and he broad slate overview for you,
2:57
Speaker 3: for you before we go fight by.
2:59
Speaker 4: Fight, No, I don't think so ready to break these down.
3:04
Speaker 3: Let's do a big Marley first fight of the night. Actually,
3:06
Speaker 3: come on, let me screen share. I always screen share.
3:09
Speaker 3: I think people like that. You get to see significant strikes, age,
3:13
Speaker 3: height and reach advantage when I talk through it, and
3:15
Speaker 3: I don't have to.
3:18
Speaker 2: I don't have to say all that stuff because you
3:20
Speaker 2: can just see it on the screen.
3:21
Speaker 3: You'd be one second, one second, my man, Jay Jet's
3:28
Speaker 3: going off right now.
3:29
Speaker 2: Things you love to see. Pooka though you get it.
3:33
Speaker 2: How much Pooka? Did you get a big Marley?
3:36
Speaker 1: More than eight percent? But I don't even know good
3:39
Speaker 1: for you?
3:39
Speaker 2: More than eight percent is good stuff? All right?
3:42
Speaker 3: So right, like you can see everything going on all
3:44
Speaker 3: these sports right here. MLB World Series, will we have showdown,
3:47
Speaker 3: NBA's back NHL right away. You go to the website
3:51
Speaker 3: eighty five dollars. This is with the code NBA fifteen.
3:54
Speaker 3: Usually it's ninety nine dollars include. Chipdemizer includes all the
3:58
Speaker 3: sports and again no better time to get in NBA
4:01
Speaker 3: fifteen if you just want to get projections single sport
4:04
Speaker 3: for NFL. Let's say you're watching MMA, so you probably
4:07
Speaker 3: want all access, but annuals are best deal.
4:10
Speaker 2: It does work for weekly as well.
4:12
Speaker 3: If you don't want Shiptomizer, you can get it for
4:14
Speaker 3: as low as two dollars a day. No better deal
4:16
Speaker 3: out there. Chipin nation dot com again right here at
4:19
Speaker 3: the banner. If you want to join us MMA, I'm
4:22
Speaker 3: showing off the stone projections. Ownership will be up tomorrow
4:25
Speaker 3: Slate plan co report. As always, this will be filled in.
4:29
Speaker 3: You can see ownership projections and this will be color
4:33
Speaker 3: coded tomorrow for the premium members.
4:36
Speaker 2: All right, let's get into a big marley first fight
4:39
Speaker 2: of the night. Reno. Actually I'm gonna go based on
4:43
Speaker 2: the Actually I'll go based on this.
4:45
Speaker 3: I don't know why best fight odds is always way
4:47
Speaker 3: messed up, So we'll go based on the Stone. On
4:50
Speaker 3: on the top Reno Faker Dinov taking on Carlos Lele.
4:54
Speaker 3: We have Faker Dinav minus two twenty favorite lel plus
4:59
Speaker 3: one eighty this fight to plus one forty five to
5:02
Speaker 3: finish Facardina plus two sixty inside the distance Leo plus
5:06
Speaker 3: three sixty five. And right away we talked about big
5:09
Speaker 3: marle or I like to mention line movements, huge, huge
5:13
Speaker 3: live movement in this fight, Facredina opened minus five hundred,
5:17
Speaker 3: Leo plus three eighty five.
5:19
Speaker 2: You can tell me if I'm saying his name wrong.
5:21
Speaker 2: Am I saying his name wrong? Before? I keep just
5:22
Speaker 2: saying it in a million.
5:23
Speaker 1: Times, I'm not even sure.
5:25
Speaker 3: Actually I'm gonna keep I'm gonna keep saying Leo again
5:29
Speaker 3: plus minus five hundred to plus three eighty five. Immediately
5:33
Speaker 3: Leo got a good amount of buy to plus one
5:36
Speaker 3: ninety five. And now the Lionston minus two twenty plus
5:39
Speaker 3: one eighty five. That's impressive for a guy making his
5:42
Speaker 3: UFC debut against a name like Fokerdina to see that
5:45
Speaker 3: much money come back on him when I was watching him.
5:48
Speaker 3: His striking's good. He's a solid all around fighter. Fought
5:51
Speaker 3: at PFL, FAUT at LFA. What I love about Fakre Deenov.
5:54
Speaker 3: And you always will have have to have seming draftings
5:57
Speaker 3: if you play multiple lineups. Four point four to three
6:00
Speaker 3: takedowns per fifteen minutes, like you can see right there.
6:03
Speaker 3: Wants to wrestle Wressell Wressell. Leo wants to keep it
6:06
Speaker 3: on the feet in this one last thing to eventually
6:09
Speaker 3: before I throw it to you. Four Kardinov's four UFC
6:12
Speaker 3: wins one nine, one hundred and thirty, one hundred and
6:15
Speaker 3: thirty and one hundred and he's not even gonna be
6:18
Speaker 3: too crazy owned because the Ilias the Chimayas of the
6:22
Speaker 3: world right there, So a fight I'm gonna have interest
6:24
Speaker 3: in to start, and I see you have a four star.
6:27
Speaker 2: Four star is pretty good, so you will as well.
6:29
Speaker 4: I think, yeah, I got a lot of five stars
6:32
Speaker 4: on this card, but I like this fight. I think
6:35
Speaker 4: Leo early out, whatever it is, he was a lot
6:38
Speaker 4: better than I was expecting him to be. When I
6:40
Speaker 4: went in to the film. I thought he was a
6:42
Speaker 4: solid pressure fighter. He's usually the one pushing forward, he's
6:46
Speaker 4: not walking back too often, and then he's he's throwing
6:50
Speaker 4: the same pace all three rounds, which I feel like
6:53
Speaker 4: the longer this fight goes, the more of a chance
6:56
Speaker 4: he has. I definitely always like Fakardinov because of his
7:00
Speaker 4: wrestling upside, and he's gonna have to wrestle in this fight,
7:02
Speaker 4: in my opinion at least to look like a minus
7:04
Speaker 4: three hundred favorite. But he has the ability to land
7:08
Speaker 4: five to ten takedowns. At eighty nine hundred dollars, I
7:11
Speaker 4: could definitely see him being on the optimal lineup. So
7:13
Speaker 4: I like him, and I expect his best work to
7:16
Speaker 4: come in the first.
7:16
Speaker 1: Half of the fight.
7:17
Speaker 4: But this Leo guy could start to slow him down
7:22
Speaker 4: and then just really put the pace on him, possibly
7:24
Speaker 4: get a third round TKO at some point, so I
7:27
Speaker 4: don't expect him to get much ownership. So I do
7:30
Speaker 4: think I'll be around field or maybe overweight on him
7:33
Speaker 4: as well, hopefully overweight on both guys in this fight,
7:36
Speaker 4: because I could see a path to the optimal for
7:38
Speaker 4: both of them. But give me Renatt to win the
7:41
Speaker 4: first and second round, because this Leo guy is taking
7:43
Speaker 4: the fight on short notice, so I don't know if
7:45
Speaker 4: he can have that pressure, heavy wear you out type
7:48
Speaker 4: of game plan on short notice. I mean, I didn't
7:50
Speaker 4: see anything that says he can't, but I never know
7:53
Speaker 4: what the short notes guys.
7:55
Speaker 3: I do think that he was supposed to have a
7:56
Speaker 3: fight book this weekend though, but it just wasn't in
7:59
Speaker 3: the UFC.
7:59
Speaker 2: So the training camp, I think he was in camp,
8:02
Speaker 2: but it wasn't. Obviously this opponent and in the UFC
8:06
Speaker 2: that helps.
8:08
Speaker 3: I like Leol, like the line movement. I'm always a
8:11
Speaker 3: sucker for line movements. And they're giving him a lot
8:13
Speaker 3: of respect. Renot, it's a big name, his dominant like
8:16
Speaker 3: wrestling style usually gets a lot of respect for book makers.
8:21
Speaker 3: He's in Abu Dhabi, usually that favor him. And minus
8:24
Speaker 3: two twenty is not crazy. I'll have some of both
8:26
Speaker 3: for sure. I like this fight and Renot you can
8:29
Speaker 3: play him like Iliya Tamayav. Renott has that upside that
8:33
Speaker 3: he can outscore both of them even though they're in
8:36
Speaker 3: five round fights. Renot one thirty and two of his four.
8:39
Speaker 3: Right there, you can leave a couple hundred. Even if
8:42
Speaker 3: you zero out Renot and you don't play ili or
8:45
Speaker 3: Chamayev and you don't play the other side of that fight.
8:47
Speaker 3: Just say you fully fade one of them. That'll be
8:50
Speaker 3: more different zeroing it out than leaving one hundred or
8:52
Speaker 3: two hundred and playing someone in that fight. So you're
8:55
Speaker 3: not giving an upside. That's the stuff I'll be looking
8:58
Speaker 3: at doing that twenty five dollars, the three dollars, even
9:01
Speaker 3: more so with forty nine thousand people in it.
9:04
Speaker 2: So little stuff like that. Again, thirteen fights, so you.
9:07
Speaker 3: Don't have to be two too crazy with your pivots,
9:10
Speaker 3: but you do if you're playing both of the main events,
9:12
Speaker 3: because that's gonna.
9:13
Speaker 2: Soak up a bunch of ownership. Let's keep it rolling,
9:16
Speaker 2: Big Marley. Second fight of the Knights.
9:18
Speaker 3: We have Ismail nerdia of taken On, Bruno Silva, Ismaeil
9:23
Speaker 3: minus one seventy five Silva plus one fifty despite minus
9:27
Speaker 3: one seventy five to finish, Ismail plus one forty five
9:31
Speaker 3: inside the distance, Bruno Silva plus two twenty five round
9:35
Speaker 3: one props, Silva plus four to twenty five nerdy of
9:38
Speaker 3: plus five hundred.
9:40
Speaker 2: I mentioned from the top.
9:41
Speaker 3: All three fights in the mid tier are expected to finish,
9:44
Speaker 3: and this is the least has the worst finishing odds
9:47
Speaker 3: of all of them. We're gonna get to this Acelon
9:50
Speaker 3: fight pretty soon. Minus six hundred to finish, a boost
9:53
Speaker 3: Maga Meta fight minus three fifty to finish, and again
9:56
Speaker 3: the main two main events, so the two five rounders
9:59
Speaker 3: I should say, are both in the eighty eight hundred
10:01
Speaker 3: and eighty seven range. So while you to expect this
10:04
Speaker 3: fight to usually be really popular, especially the Ismail side,
10:08
Speaker 3: he's gonna be in check man and I mean, Bruno
10:11
Speaker 3: Silva is definitely a very low on pivot because of
10:14
Speaker 3: the money line.
10:15
Speaker 2: Working against him.
10:16
Speaker 3: In the closely line fights, people will be like that's
10:18
Speaker 3: a bad play. When Silva wins, he has a lot
10:20
Speaker 3: of upside. So I like it in tournaments and I'll say,
10:23
Speaker 3: right here, we have ismail right now eighteen percent, which
10:27
Speaker 3: maybe I'm thinking like twenty two to twenty three, but regardless,
10:30
Speaker 3: that's really low for an eight eighty set or for
10:33
Speaker 3: an eighty two hundred dollars fighter.
10:38
Speaker 1: You just went on mute.
10:41
Speaker 2: I went on mute.
10:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, right after you said eighty seven hundred dollars or eighty.
10:46
Speaker 2: Thank you, you got it.
10:50
Speaker 1: So I don't know what you were saying after that.
10:52
Speaker 2: You got me, now, can you hear me? Yeah? All right, yeah,
10:57
Speaker 2: let me finish my thought.
10:57
Speaker 3: Eighty three hundred and he's only minus one step and
11:00
Speaker 3: he's minus one seventy five. That's really good because he's
11:03
Speaker 3: taking a lot of money. So looking at money line
11:06
Speaker 3: ons pricing only eighteen percent, and his outside the distance
11:10
Speaker 3: prop is really solid as well at plus one five. Like,
11:15
Speaker 3: this has to be a fight that I get a
11:17
Speaker 3: lot of interest in, and if that ismail ownership is
11:20
Speaker 3: right eighteen percent, I guess he's probably one of my
11:22
Speaker 3: favorite plays on the slate.
11:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like him as well.
11:27
Speaker 4: I kind of liked him back when he was with
11:28
Speaker 4: the UFC before he's got that karate style. I don't
11:33
Speaker 4: think Silva's really a guy who can wrestle and put
11:37
Speaker 4: a Sean Brady type of performance on Nordiev. I actually
11:40
Speaker 4: think Nordiev has the wrestling advantage in this fight too,
11:44
Speaker 4: So in my opinion, Silva's real ceiling would be to
11:47
Speaker 4: knock this guy out. He has like twenty knockouts, But
11:50
Speaker 4: I just I don't want to rely on that happening.
11:52
Speaker 4: And if Silvia wins a decision, I don't think he
11:54
Speaker 4: scores well and he might not even hit ten X.
11:56
Speaker 4: So I'm not going to get too much Silva. But
11:58
Speaker 4: I do like the Nordiev side. I think he's gonna
12:01
Speaker 4: be the better all around striker, the faster striker. He's
12:05
Speaker 4: gonna be the one moving around the cage more. I
12:07
Speaker 4: think he could mix in the wrestling, and I do
12:10
Speaker 4: like the line movement for him as well, So it's
12:12
Speaker 4: mostly gonna be Nordy ever passed with one hundred.
12:15
Speaker 1: And fifty lineups.
12:16
Speaker 4: If I do that again, I'll probably get some silva,
12:19
Speaker 4: but I doubt I go over ten percent on the
12:21
Speaker 4: silver side, and I'm fine getting up till like maybe
12:24
Speaker 4: thirty or so on Nordia.
12:26
Speaker 2: You got a.
12:27
Speaker 3: Good one fifty again. You had a great, great night
12:29
Speaker 3: last last week.
12:31
Speaker 1: I might we'll see possibly.
12:33
Speaker 3: And shout out to man, who was it who won
12:40
Speaker 3: all the cheese last week? One hundred eight dollars into
12:42
Speaker 3: thirty eight thousand?
12:44
Speaker 1: Was it a Phil Phil?
12:46
Speaker 3: Yes, it was Phil Phil Smart always in the discord
12:50
Speaker 3: and all this stuff. Shout out Phil chop the main
12:54
Speaker 3: like one hundred eight bucks in there only fifty four
12:56
Speaker 3: dollars in the main contest, like thirty five thousand dollars.
12:59
Speaker 2: Awesome, awesome stuff. Yeah, you had a great day.
13:01
Speaker 3: A couple other members and Kenny had a good day
13:03
Speaker 3: as well. So that was only eleven fights. Now we
13:06
Speaker 3: have a much better card. But the last two things
13:08
Speaker 3: I wanted to mention in this fight, Nordy have opened
13:10
Speaker 3: plus one fifteen Silvia minus one thirty five. So the
13:14
Speaker 3: line flipped and some and that is again why you
13:16
Speaker 3: see only eighty three hundred.
13:18
Speaker 2: If the line, if the pricing.
13:19
Speaker 3: Came out today, Nerdia would be like eighty five hundred
13:22
Speaker 3: eighty six hundred. So you get value right there, and
13:25
Speaker 3: it's still good inside the distance prop And the last
13:28
Speaker 3: thing I wanted to mention, Nerdia have has to have
13:30
Speaker 3: the wrestling upside. According to Vegas plus twenty two hundred
13:34
Speaker 3: by sub is Silva Nordy have opened plus six hundred,
13:37
Speaker 3: it got bought down to plus five hundred. I mean
13:39
Speaker 3: we've seen, like Andrew Sanchez what he did to Bruno Silva.
13:43
Speaker 3: He had no answer. Silva gas tank can be a
13:46
Speaker 3: little questionable too.
13:47
Speaker 2: So yeah, I.
13:48
Speaker 3: Mean I'll play some Silvia. It'll be very low owned.
13:50
Speaker 3: But Nerdia of my preferred side. Appreciate everyone out there.
13:54
Speaker 3: Ben Smetch that light button is right. We appreciate every watching.
13:58
Speaker 3: All we asked is the light button. Appreciate your Ben.
14:00
Speaker 3: Shout out Sean Sullivan. He did call Jordan Poole. It's
14:03
Speaker 3: his boy. Massive game on Thursday, So awesome stuff right there.
14:09
Speaker 3: Next fight on the card, Big Marley, we have Freed
14:11
Speaker 3: Bostra taking on Victor Hugo. Minus eight hundred is Bostra.
14:15
Speaker 3: Plus five point fifty is Hugo. Plus one eighty five
14:18
Speaker 3: is Bostra. Plus eight fifty is Hugo. Easy for me,
14:22
Speaker 3: No Hugo in twenty entry in below. I think we
14:26
Speaker 3: have plenty of live dogs on this card. Plus five
14:28
Speaker 3: point fifty is not something I'm gonna get to with
14:31
Speaker 3: twenty teams or less. For Reed, I'm gonna keep him
14:33
Speaker 3: in the pool because he's gonna be very not very
14:36
Speaker 3: low owned. But he's gonna be low owned because if
14:39
Speaker 3: people go up top, it's gonna be Kennedy for one
14:41
Speaker 3: hundred more.
14:42
Speaker 2: Otherwise it's gonna be more of the balance stuff.
14:45
Speaker 3: The problem is he's a boring fighter, but he has
14:48
Speaker 3: wrestling upside, and plus one eighty five inside the distance
14:52
Speaker 3: isn't bad.
14:52
Speaker 2: So you can't paint the picture. You see.
14:55
Speaker 3: Three point ninety six takedowns good, four point four seven
14:58
Speaker 3: significant strikes not bad, plus one eighty five inside the
15:01
Speaker 3: distance if he finishes comes with some takedowns, he does
15:05
Speaker 3: have that upside. At low ownership, I'll probably match the
15:08
Speaker 3: field or be a little underweight, but I'm not going
15:11
Speaker 3: to fully ex him. I've bet buried lately of exing
15:14
Speaker 3: some of these top guys in the top range and
15:17
Speaker 3: then yeah, my night's over. So not this week. But
15:21
Speaker 3: I do prefer Kennedy in the vacuum, no doubt about that.
15:24
Speaker 3: But ownership will be double, So I guess kind of
15:26
Speaker 3: group in those two fights because they're right there in
15:29
Speaker 3: the same pricing, very similar money line. Kennedy though way
15:32
Speaker 3: better inside the distance prop and ownership will be double
15:36
Speaker 3: as well, So group those two together.
15:39
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's I mean, just Kennedy has a
15:43
Speaker 4: better chance of getting a finish, But if they both
15:46
Speaker 4: go to a decision, then give me Basharat all day,
15:48
Speaker 4: just because he's got the wrestling upside. Kennedy could wrestle,
15:53
Speaker 4: but he doesn't really strike me as a wrestler. I
15:55
Speaker 4: think he's gonna go out there and try and knock
15:57
Speaker 4: out Burnette. Basharat just for a well round fighter, he
16:00
Speaker 4: could take the fight anywhere. If he's striking. He's not
16:03
Speaker 4: gonna put up many points either. He's gonna need a
16:05
Speaker 4: knockout and he's not really a knockout type of fighter.
16:07
Speaker 4: But he is a good wrestler, and he's good at
16:09
Speaker 4: top control. That's where his ceiling would come from. At
16:12
Speaker 4: low ownership, I'm interested in that. I do think he's
16:15
Speaker 4: going to be the overall minute winner anywhere this fight goes.
16:18
Speaker 4: Hugo's dangerous though, He's a solid grappler. He's got power,
16:21
Speaker 4: so I think he could be live for just a
16:24
Speaker 4: flash finish. But if he doesn't get a knockout or submission,
16:26
Speaker 4: I just don't see how he wins this fight. So
16:29
Speaker 4: give me Bacherett to win a decision. Ninety six hundred
16:33
Speaker 4: dollars is a lot to pay, though, So I just
16:35
Speaker 4: don't love it overall. With the ownership being down, that's
16:38
Speaker 4: what makes me like it more. But yeah, if we
16:41
Speaker 4: weren't worried about ownership at all, this is probably a
16:43
Speaker 4: play I'd be trying to get away from. And I'm
16:46
Speaker 4: fine with him over Kennedy for ownership reasons as well.
16:50
Speaker 4: I feel like Kennedy could go to a decision in
16:52
Speaker 4: this one, and I doubt that he would scored too great.
16:55
Speaker 4: But yeah, I'm also not convinced that I'm gonna pay
16:59
Speaker 4: ninety six ninety seven hundred dollars in a lot of
17:01
Speaker 4: my lineups too, So not sure what I'm gonna do yet,
17:03
Speaker 4: but I might just.
17:05
Speaker 1: Be low on that overall top range.
17:07
Speaker 3: In general, it makes sense like that, Like I said,
17:10
Speaker 3: from the top balance build is better.
17:12
Speaker 2: All three fights in the mid tier expected to finish.
17:15
Speaker 3: Both jamayav Ilia eighty eight hundred and seventy seven hundred,
17:19
Speaker 3: their opponents, solid prices, all of them have a bunch
17:22
Speaker 3: of upside, and like, yeah, ninety six is a lot,
17:26
Speaker 3: ninety sevens a lot.
17:27
Speaker 2: I might like Kennedy's way better in a vacuum.
17:30
Speaker 3: He is only plus one eighty five in round one, though,
17:33
Speaker 3: and I do think I want a round one finish
17:35
Speaker 3: if I'm playing Kennedy at this price tag and for
17:39
Speaker 3: Reid at half the ownership, and when I'm probably gonna
17:42
Speaker 3: play a lot of two main or two five round fights,
17:45
Speaker 3: like I'll probably play a lot of Chimayev and uh
17:49
Speaker 3: Ilia or Whitaker in Ilia or whatever, and I'll play
17:53
Speaker 3: some with just one of them.
17:55
Speaker 2: I doubt I'll play any lineups with none of that fight.
17:58
Speaker 3: But when I do play both of them, I'm probably
18:00
Speaker 3: more likely to play for Reid because it gets you
18:02
Speaker 3: different and can cut out half the dupes to reforce
18:05
Speaker 3: the dupes.
18:06
Speaker 2: But like you said, I like Orbi a lot.
18:09
Speaker 3: I could go or By and leave seven hundred and
18:11
Speaker 3: then just not skip that whole top tier. Reno has
18:14
Speaker 3: upside like that as well, So I don't see myself
18:17
Speaker 3: getting to that top tier too too much as well.
18:21
Speaker 2: What's going on Blake? He says, just bet Max and
18:23
Speaker 2: play Ilia. I'm gonna play and bet Max though, but
18:26
Speaker 2: that's just me.
18:27
Speaker 3: Yeah, you can always take that approach to Rio mentioned
18:30
Speaker 3: it actually last week to me he went all in
18:33
Speaker 3: on Hadley and he said he should have heads with
18:35
Speaker 3: a smotherman that. Obviously the odds are a little wire there,
18:38
Speaker 3: but I don't hate it, not something I do too much.
18:44
Speaker 3: Anything else you want to mention about the Kennedy or
18:47
Speaker 3: the Freed fight, because I did group that Kennedy fight in,
18:50
Speaker 3: so any final thoughts there.
18:51
Speaker 1: He said on that fight in general.
18:54
Speaker 4: Actually, my question to you would be who do you
18:55
Speaker 4: like more between Barnett and Hugo.
18:58
Speaker 3: Oh, Hugo for sure, but I'm not playing either. I
19:00
Speaker 3: feel like Chris Barnett is eight inches right here. As
19:05
Speaker 3: you guys see eight inches right here. It's gonna be comical,
19:09
Speaker 3: but Kennedy. If he loses this fight, it'll be tough scenes.
19:13
Speaker 3: But I'm not gonna play who Hugo and any twenty
19:15
Speaker 3: year blow either because I'm miss these for The Bostro
19:18
Speaker 3: brothers are just insane, Like they're just so technical, defensively sound,
19:22
Speaker 3: and it's hard for me to see them losing fights
19:25
Speaker 3: until they start taking on guys in like the top ten,
19:27
Speaker 3: top fifteen, So those are I'm it's not a hot taker,
19:31
Speaker 3: hot stands man, he means. But let's see we have
19:34
Speaker 3: fifteen percent combined ownership on those two. I'll say that's
19:37
Speaker 3: like paying the rake like Hoops likes to talk about
19:39
Speaker 3: in NFL. So I'll probably have not even if I
19:42
Speaker 3: want fifty of either.
19:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know what I'm gonna do with those two.
19:47
Speaker 4: I mean, ideally I fade them, but I'd be okay
19:49
Speaker 4: getting like five percent on either or both.
19:53
Speaker 2: Oh, what's going on, Gambit? That's gambit, I think if
19:56
Speaker 2: that's what you're saying, what's going on? Gambit? I don't
19:58
Speaker 2: know the New Sun part. What I think it is.
20:00
Speaker 2: Gam what's going on? Let's keep it rolling.
20:04
Speaker 3: Next fight on the card, another mid tier fight, one
20:06
Speaker 3: of the most likely to finish on the card a boost.
20:09
Speaker 3: Maga Matov taken on Bruno Ferreira minus one thirty six
20:12
Speaker 3: is a boost. Plus one sixteen is Bruno minus three
20:15
Speaker 3: fifty for this fight. To finish, Maga Matov plus one
20:18
Speaker 3: twenty inside the distance, Bruno Ferreira plus one fifty, and
20:22
Speaker 3: both guys are plus three to fifty inside the distance.
20:25
Speaker 2: I'll let you start what you like in this one.
20:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like this fight as a whole a lot.
20:31
Speaker 4: It's right there in the mid range minus three fifty
20:34
Speaker 4: or so to end inside the distance. Ferrera has never
20:37
Speaker 4: been to a third round at all. He's got huge power,
20:40
Speaker 4: he's pretty athletic. If he wins, it's most likely a knockout.
20:45
Speaker 4: But Maga Metov is dangerous early too. His issue is
20:48
Speaker 4: that he could start to slow down after the first round,
20:51
Speaker 4: where it's not really an issue in this one because
20:53
Speaker 4: we kind of expect Ferrera to start to slow down
20:55
Speaker 4: after the first round.
20:56
Speaker 1: Two.
20:56
Speaker 4: Magametov should have the wrestling edge in this one. I
21:00
Speaker 4: think either one of them could go down in the
21:01
Speaker 4: first round, and whoever goes down, the other guy's probably
21:04
Speaker 4: on the optima lineup. So I'm just gonna load up
21:06
Speaker 4: on both sides, but to pick a winner, give me
21:09
Speaker 4: Maga Metov. I think he's the more skilled striker. I
21:11
Speaker 4: trust him more over the course of three rounds. I
21:14
Speaker 4: like his wrestling too, and it's an Abu Dhabi, so
21:17
Speaker 4: I'll be heavier on the Maga Metov side. But this
21:20
Speaker 4: is close to and all in fight for me.
21:23
Speaker 2: I agree with you.
21:24
Speaker 3: I'm on a boost side as well, but let's see
21:27
Speaker 3: what we have ownership.
21:28
Speaker 2: We haven't very close. We haven't actually the exact same.
21:31
Speaker 3: So if that is the case, which I totally can
21:33
Speaker 3: see the savings, four hundred dollars is price very fair
21:37
Speaker 3: or six hundred dollars?
21:39
Speaker 2: Excuse me? Price very fair?
21:41
Speaker 3: But I do think what do you think about a
21:43
Speaker 3: Boos's wrestling upside in this one? I think it's like
21:47
Speaker 3: more the first round, after the first round when he's
21:51
Speaker 3: gassed and just like lay on him and just Bruno
21:53
Speaker 3: has nothing to offer that makes sense?
21:55
Speaker 2: What about this fight?
21:57
Speaker 3: Or I know you have both his five stars the
22:00
Speaker 3: other in the mid tier Oslan and Kakoria.
22:05
Speaker 2: If you had to pick which one, damn.
22:09
Speaker 4: I want a lot of both of them, I'd probably say,
22:13
Speaker 4: uh meton fight.
22:15
Speaker 3: I like it all right, Yeah, I mean at the
22:19
Speaker 3: end of the day, you don't have to pick just one.
22:21
Speaker 3: I will say be hesitant, Like you play Ilia, then
22:24
Speaker 3: you go with Occur, then you're going Oslan, then you're
22:27
Speaker 3: going to Boost.
22:28
Speaker 2: I'd be really careful going those four. Like that's maybe
22:31
Speaker 2: when you go q Goo or Barnett.
22:33
Speaker 3: Like I'm not saying you can't play them, but you
22:36
Speaker 3: have to be careful for sure. If like you could
22:38
Speaker 3: just fill it out with like leel silva, if that
22:42
Speaker 3: made sense or whatever, left zero, that'd be way too
22:44
Speaker 3: chalky in my opinion. You do have to make pivots
22:47
Speaker 3: in Mma v one pivots like a big drop down
22:50
Speaker 3: leave eight hundred. In Salary two v two's get leverage,
22:54
Speaker 3: et cetera.
22:56
Speaker 2: Keep it rolling. Next fight.
22:57
Speaker 3: Excited for this one, metic Oral by taking on Matteo's
23:00
Speaker 3: May twis rebesci or rebeccy. Let me let me say
23:04
Speaker 3: that again, Mattos Rebeccy. There we go minus three forty
23:08
Speaker 3: is Oral by plus two eighty is Rebeccy minus one
23:12
Speaker 3: thirty For this fight to finish, Oral by plus one
23:15
Speaker 3: sixty five inside the distance Rebeccy plus three hundred.
23:19
Speaker 2: This line opened minus two forty.
23:22
Speaker 3: Oral By now he's minus three forty, has continued to
23:25
Speaker 3: take money. Got a decent chunk of money today, I believe,
23:28
Speaker 3: like thirty cents right away.
23:30
Speaker 2: What stands out to me looking at the Stone?
23:33
Speaker 3: Seven point four to four takedowns per fifteen minutes for
23:36
Speaker 3: oral By, four point one two for Rebeccy. Oral By
23:39
Speaker 3: will be six years younger, have a three inch tide
23:42
Speaker 3: advantage and an eight inch reach advantage. Just love going
23:46
Speaker 3: to the Stone, Just being able to compare. Seeing plenty
23:49
Speaker 3: of undefeated fighters on this card, only one loss for
23:52
Speaker 3: oral By just paints a better picture if you know
23:55
Speaker 3: nothing about ed May and it's just names on the
23:58
Speaker 3: screen for you. So are we gonna get at of
24:00
Speaker 3: wrestling in this one? You have it as a four
24:02
Speaker 3: star take it away?
24:04
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think we probably should get a decent amount
24:06
Speaker 4: of wrestling. Both guys are good wrestlers, solid grapplers too.
24:11
Speaker 4: I think Rebeccy's maybe a little bit more dangerous on
24:13
Speaker 4: the ground.
24:15
Speaker 1: Striking could go either way.
24:17
Speaker 4: Both of them could start to slow down as the
24:19
Speaker 4: fight moves along as well. But I just think oral
24:21
Speaker 4: Bi is maybe a little bit better at many and
24:24
Speaker 4: winning minutes in this one, especially mixing in the wrestling.
24:27
Speaker 4: If he can get on top, I think he's gonna
24:29
Speaker 4: be able to control it a little bit more. And
24:32
Speaker 4: I think that's the best spective path to victories, to
24:34
Speaker 4: go out there, land takedown or two in each round,
24:38
Speaker 4: try and grind out minutes in this one. Neither one
24:40
Speaker 4: of them has scored less than one hundred points in
24:42
Speaker 4: a win, so it's just another fight.
24:43
Speaker 1: I want to be pretty heavy on.
24:46
Speaker 4: Oral By should get more ownership, which maybe that takes
24:49
Speaker 4: me off of him a little bit, and maybe I'll
24:51
Speaker 4: move to some bash rat or something just for ownership
24:53
Speaker 4: reasons if I am going heavy on the mid range and.
24:56
Speaker 1: The title fights. But Rebeccy has seventy one dollars.
25:00
Speaker 4: If he wins this fight, he's gonna have a really
25:02
Speaker 4: good chance at the optimal lineup, and I don't think
25:04
Speaker 4: he's gonna have a whole lot of ownership.
25:06
Speaker 1: So I don't know.
25:09
Speaker 4: I mean, I want to say Orby's my preferred play,
25:13
Speaker 4: and he is just because I think he's gonna win.
25:14
Speaker 4: I think he's gonna wrestle more. But I don't hate
25:17
Speaker 4: getting leverage on the Rebeccy side, And maybe I'll have
25:19
Speaker 4: more leverage on the Rebeccy side than the oral By side.
25:21
Speaker 1: I'm not sure.
25:22
Speaker 4: I'm just gonna be heavy on the fight as a whole,
25:24
Speaker 4: and hopefully the winner does mix in a lot of takedowns.
25:27
Speaker 2: I think you broke it down perfect.
25:28
Speaker 3: I do think the gaff from Oralby to Rebecca will
25:31
Speaker 3: be pretty wide. I think Rebeccy's one of the better
25:34
Speaker 3: leverage plays on the slate because if he does win,
25:36
Speaker 3: he should score well. Like you said, the problem is
25:39
Speaker 3: just like my I know fights, I know ball, like
25:42
Speaker 3: people like to say, I think orl By is a beast.
25:44
Speaker 3: I think this is a tough matchup for Rebeccy, and
25:47
Speaker 3: the line keeps going in or By's favor. So maybe
25:51
Speaker 3: this is the spot where I will eat thirty percent
25:53
Speaker 3: oral High.
25:53
Speaker 2: Then I can still get twenty percent.
25:55
Speaker 3: Rebeccy just be overweight on this fight, and I'm still
25:58
Speaker 3: overweight the side I think is better game theory play.
26:02
Speaker 3: But I can still eat h ok because you can't
26:04
Speaker 3: get different in ways, and the upside of Orbi is
26:06
Speaker 3: definitely there with wrestling.
26:10
Speaker 2: Not really too much more to add in that one. Like,
26:13
Speaker 2: I do like oral By more than Jeff Neil, I
26:15
Speaker 2: like him more than the Roal Murphy.
26:17
Speaker 3: I personally I think like him more than Reno too,
26:19
Speaker 3: because of I'm more confident that he wins.
26:22
Speaker 2: How do you like rank oral By? I guess in those.
26:24
Speaker 1: Four, who was the other one over Jeff.
26:29
Speaker 2: Neil, the Ron Murphy, Renot.
26:32
Speaker 4: Give me Renot and oral By over the other two?
26:36
Speaker 4: Probably I expect them to wrestle more.
26:40
Speaker 3: What are the odds you think wrestling cancels out in
26:42
Speaker 3: this one? Good question, JW. Very very good question.
26:45
Speaker 4: I mean that that would suck. You couldn't need a
26:48
Speaker 4: knock out if that's gonna be the case boring, Yeah,
26:52
Speaker 4: I don't I big maybe ten fifteen, but yeah, if
26:59
Speaker 4: that happened, neither one of them is going to score
27:01
Speaker 4: well unless there's a knockout.
27:03
Speaker 3: Last thing on this fight, just say the Rebeccy Diego
27:06
Speaker 3: Ferrera fight didn't happen.
27:07
Speaker 2: What do you think this lot or this fight's lined at.
27:09
Speaker 3: I believe there's a lot of recency and recencyvis in
27:13
Speaker 3: like the way of very fair recency bias. The dude
27:16
Speaker 3: looked awful, he was a monster favor and got pieced up.
27:19
Speaker 3: But you were on Diego there shout out to you
27:21
Speaker 3: like Diego Ferre at the end of the day is
27:23
Speaker 3: not a bad fighter. So what do you think the
27:25
Speaker 3: odds would be if he won that?
27:26
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I would think that they'd be closer.
27:28
Speaker 4: But I think that it's a little too wide as
27:31
Speaker 4: it is right now. I would say that Orbai should
27:33
Speaker 4: be closer to minus two hundred. Uh and without that
27:36
Speaker 4: last fight, maybe he's like minus one sixty five something
27:40
Speaker 4: like that. But yeah, I would say he deserves to
27:44
Speaker 4: be a favorite no matter what happened with that Rebeccy fight.
27:47
Speaker 1: But maybe that is why it's so wide.
27:49
Speaker 4: People are kind of just fading Rebeccy after being a
27:52
Speaker 4: big favorite in losing.
27:54
Speaker 3: I think that, and I think the hype on oral
27:55
Speaker 3: Bi just a scary looking dude that has been dominant
27:59
Speaker 3: so far.
28:00
Speaker 2: Think both of them has led this line and.
28:03
Speaker 3: To get over minus three hundred and probably I expected
28:06
Speaker 3: to keep growing. There should be a lot of action
28:08
Speaker 3: on this card, Big BOYE pay per View. A lot
28:10
Speaker 3: of people like throwing in parlays as fight goes. Usually
28:13
Speaker 3: favorites get steamed, so always something I like to keep
28:16
Speaker 3: in mind too. If you were on a like a
28:20
Speaker 3: Robert Whittaker right now, it's minus two forty plus two
28:23
Speaker 3: oh five. I mean, I think you can get Whittaker
28:25
Speaker 3: probably at minus two thirty before the fight goes off.
28:27
Speaker 3: I could be wrong, but I'm expecting some of these
28:30
Speaker 3: late favors to take heavy heavy scene. But that's the
28:35
Speaker 3: betting side. Well, we mainly focus on DFS. I personally
28:38
Speaker 3: just live that more so than bet pre flow. Let's
28:42
Speaker 3: keep it rolling. Next fight on the card, we got
28:44
Speaker 3: Jeff Neil taking on Rafael Dosanos. Minus two to eighty
28:49
Speaker 3: is Jeff Neil plus two forty is RDA plus one
28:53
Speaker 3: twenty five for this fight to finish Jeff Neil plus
28:56
Speaker 3: one fifty five inside the distance RDA plus seven hundred.
29:00
Speaker 3: So this line opened or inside the distance fight to
29:04
Speaker 3: finish open plus one forty five now plus one twenty five.
29:08
Speaker 3: Like to see that the unders ben hit Jeff Neal
29:10
Speaker 3: open plus one seventy five now plus one fifty five
29:14
Speaker 3: inside the distance. I like this fight, man, I really
29:18
Speaker 3: like this fight. What do you have it lined at?
29:19
Speaker 3: You have it's a three star. I think Jeff Neils
29:23
Speaker 3: an interesting pivot in the top range who has first
29:25
Speaker 3: round knockout upside and I like how the inside the
29:28
Speaker 3: distance line keeps coming down. Just a powerful, powerful striker
29:32
Speaker 3: heavy hands him in round one plus three to fifty
29:36
Speaker 3: open plus four hundred. So I like, if you like
29:39
Speaker 3: set a min what would that take yet, like twenty
29:43
Speaker 3: eight percent big Marley something like that plus three fifty
29:47
Speaker 3: thirty percent?
29:49
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, probably a little under thirty, a little.
29:52
Speaker 2: On the thirty twenty seven.
29:53
Speaker 3: So I don't mind getting right around there at the
29:55
Speaker 3: round one prop because longer the fight, what is.
29:58
Speaker 1: It twenty two oh gross math is terrible.
30:04
Speaker 3: Five percent I think is very fair, which should be
30:07
Speaker 3: where his ownership comes in. We have it at seventeen percent,
30:10
Speaker 3: so first round props a little higher owned than his
30:12
Speaker 3: ownership right there, I think twenty two percent. I'll probably
30:16
Speaker 3: have minimum thirty maximum something like that because I'll take
30:20
Speaker 3: a first round knockout any day.
30:22
Speaker 2: Up here.
30:22
Speaker 3: RDA I think is a very live dog, and if
30:25
Speaker 3: he wins, I think he has as much upside as
30:27
Speaker 3: almost anyone down here, because I think it comes through
30:29
Speaker 3: wrestling clash of styles. I'm looking at it striker Jeff
30:32
Speaker 3: Neil wrestling RDA, and this we have it as one
30:36
Speaker 3: of the lowest combined own fights on the cart.
30:38
Speaker 2: I'm gonna be overweight to this one.
30:41
Speaker 3: I will say my preferred play probably is RDA, though,
30:44
Speaker 3: because he got to play dogs and I will not
30:46
Speaker 3: be playing Barnett Hugo. I don't love Rackage, so naturally
30:50
Speaker 3: I'm going to have a good amount of.
30:52
Speaker 2: RDA to the field.
30:57
Speaker 1: I think.
30:59
Speaker 4: I think RDA might be my preferred play in this one.
31:02
Speaker 4: I do like Neil to get the win. I just
31:05
Speaker 4: think he's gonna be the bigger guy, the better boxer,
31:07
Speaker 4: more power, and if it stays on the feet, I
31:10
Speaker 4: just like him to win minutes there and be more dangerous.
31:15
Speaker 4: But if anyone's gonna break the slate, I feel like
31:17
Speaker 4: it's RDA. He's the guy who could land seven takedowns
31:20
Speaker 4: and do a lot of work while the fight is
31:22
Speaker 4: on the ground. It's just that I don't think he
31:24
Speaker 4: can get seven takedowns against Jeff Neil. He's got some
31:27
Speaker 4: great takedown defense. I always think about his fight with
31:31
Speaker 4: Blal Lal was trying to take him down and he
31:33
Speaker 4: just posted up on one arm. He just refuse to
31:35
Speaker 4: go down. So I don't think RDA up. I think
31:40
Speaker 4: I had a bigger weight class than he needs. To
31:42
Speaker 4: be at is gonna be able to have a whole
31:43
Speaker 4: lot of wrestling success here, So that makes me not
31:46
Speaker 4: like him a whole lot. And then Neil, if he's
31:48
Speaker 4: not getting the knockout, I think he could put some
31:51
Speaker 4: volume out there, but to payoff ninety two hundred dollars
31:54
Speaker 4: and outscore all these other people in this nine K
31:56
Speaker 4: range and below him, I just don't like.
31:59
Speaker 1: His chances at it.
31:59
Speaker 4: So this is closer to a two star than a
32:02
Speaker 4: four star for me. Uh picking Neil to win. But
32:05
Speaker 4: if I was only going to play one lineup and
32:07
Speaker 4: I had to use this fight, I'm guessing I'd be
32:09
Speaker 4: on the RDA side.
32:11
Speaker 2: I agree with you.
32:11
Speaker 3: I'm not also on the RDA side, like I said
32:14
Speaker 3: in my preferred play. But seventeen percent owned we have
32:17
Speaker 3: and it's round one prop plus three fifty, which eCos
32:21
Speaker 3: twenty two percent. Like if you told, if I told
32:23
Speaker 3: you right now, Jeffan Neil gets a first round knockout,
32:26
Speaker 3: how much would you have.
32:30
Speaker 1: More than more than I plan on having.
32:32
Speaker 4: I'd probably have, yeah, like thirty thirty percent something like that,
32:37
Speaker 4: because I still think there's a lot of other people
32:39
Speaker 4: who are alive for the first round knockout too.
32:42
Speaker 3: I probably had like seventy percent.
32:47
Speaker 2: The thing is I'm getting.
32:47
Speaker 3: A guarant and again that it's kind of a dumb question,
32:50
Speaker 3: and my answer was dumb because it's not painting a
32:53
Speaker 3: true picture. I'm not saying any I'm not saying he's
32:56
Speaker 3: seventy percent to be optimal in a first round knockout.
32:59
Speaker 3: I'm more saying, like I would know, i'd have a
33:01
Speaker 3: low owned fighter in the top tier guaranteed to get
33:04
Speaker 3: a first round knockout, where nothing else is guaranteed on
33:06
Speaker 3: the card.
33:07
Speaker 2: So my question, I phrased was dumb.
33:09
Speaker 4: How about think so like, all right, he's guaranteed a
33:12
Speaker 4: first round knockout, but POORI is guaranteed to win, and
33:15
Speaker 4: Timaia ever guaranteed to win.
33:17
Speaker 1: He's still likes gods.
33:18
Speaker 2: Go way down, his odds go way down.
33:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, don't.
33:23
Speaker 3: The thing is I'm still taking I'm still probably have
33:26
Speaker 3: more Jeff Neil because he's a third of the third owned,
33:30
Speaker 3: I mean like two point.
33:32
Speaker 2: Five times less own. But yeah, yeah, I don't know.
33:35
Speaker 3: I think if twenty percent Meal is probably where something,
33:37
Speaker 3: I'll be around overweight and it's not gonna kill me
33:40
Speaker 3: if he doesn't get there like we don't like, we
33:42
Speaker 3: think he more than.
33:43
Speaker 2: Likely does it.
33:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm cool with that.
33:46
Speaker 4: I think the way I'll probably go about it is
33:47
Speaker 4: I'll leave him in my one fifty pool and then
33:50
Speaker 4: if I put in like ten to twenty lineups in
33:53
Speaker 4: the big one hand build those, I probably don't get
33:56
Speaker 4: to kneel in those.
33:58
Speaker 2: That makes sense. What's going on? G kai for? C
34:01
Speaker 2: change your name, but I remember what's going on?
34:04
Speaker 3: G kai for Ready for a big week and let's
34:06
Speaker 3: make some cheese this week see Brow and Big Marley.
34:08
Speaker 3: Next fight on the card Ebo Oslan taking on Raphael Kirkaria.
34:14
Speaker 2: We have Aslan minus hold on.
34:19
Speaker 5: I hate how best fight as always has just completely
34:22
Speaker 5: so we have Kirkaria the favorite as the cheaper fighter
34:25
Speaker 5: at minus one thirty Aslan or Dog plus one ten
34:29
Speaker 5: minus six hundred for this fight to finish, which is
34:32
Speaker 5: the most likely on the card, Kirkarria plus one thirty
34:35
Speaker 5: inside the distance, Aslan plus one oh five round one
34:39
Speaker 5: props Oslon plus two hundred Kircarria plus three fifty.
34:44
Speaker 3: Ownership Wise, this fight and the Boost fight will be
34:47
Speaker 3: very similarly owned and again, all three fights in the
34:50
Speaker 3: mid tier expected to finish.
34:51
Speaker 2: We talked about a little earlier. Big Marley loves.
34:54
Speaker 3: This fight and the a Boost fight, and it makes sense,
34:57
Speaker 3: a very closely lined fight that's minus six hundred to finish, two.
35:01
Speaker 2: Big boys going at it. I love it. In terms
35:04
Speaker 2: of my preferred play, it depends on what you think
35:07
Speaker 2: ownership is. If you think Carry is.
35:10
Speaker 3: A decently I'm out higher own because he's the favorite
35:14
Speaker 3: and two under less. My prefer side would be Oslan.
35:17
Speaker 3: If you think it's relatively close, I'll say, right now
35:20
Speaker 3: we have it relatively close.
35:21
Speaker 2: Will not disclose it though. Premium member ownership's big.
35:25
Speaker 3: In MMA, so don't want to give it all away,
35:28
Speaker 3: and right now our ownership Kkrriya would be my preferred place.
35:31
Speaker 3: So do you have a preferred side of this one
35:33
Speaker 3: or do you just know you want to get a
35:34
Speaker 3: lot of both sides?
35:37
Speaker 4: Yeah, I just want a lot of both sides. I
35:40
Speaker 4: always just expect the lower salaried fighter who is a favorite,
35:45
Speaker 4: to gain a little bit more ownership than the other one.
35:48
Speaker 4: So I'm gonna prefer the Aslan side of this one,
35:52
Speaker 4: just because I do think he'll be lower owned and
35:55
Speaker 4: I haven't seen enough of this k Carry a guy.
35:57
Speaker 4: I've only seen like one fight and then a highlight reel.
36:01
Speaker 4: He looks dangerous, but in that one fight that I saw,
36:04
Speaker 4: he wasn't high volume or anything. He really didn't even
36:07
Speaker 4: look that great until the spinning back elbow.
36:10
Speaker 1: I mean, that looks awesome.
36:12
Speaker 4: And the odds say he's got a better chance to
36:14
Speaker 4: win on the ground, I believe, especially by submission. But
36:18
Speaker 4: I think Aslon could mix in takedowns too. Aslon's more
36:22
Speaker 4: aggressive on the feet. He's dangerous on the feet too,
36:25
Speaker 4: So I think this is just a toss up fight.
36:28
Speaker 4: And I gave like, if I had the favor one,
36:30
Speaker 4: I said, I'd favor Aslon, so he'll be my preferred
36:36
Speaker 4: leverage play. But I want to have this fight in
36:38
Speaker 4: like eighty five percent of my lineups. Ideally I'll have
36:40
Speaker 4: a little bit of leverage on both.
36:43
Speaker 2: I agree with you.
36:44
Speaker 3: I might like if I hit one hundred percent of
36:46
Speaker 3: this fighting twenty entry in below, I'd be good with it.
36:49
Speaker 3: I'm not forcing a rule, I'll say. The only rule
36:53
Speaker 3: I am forcing is tremaiav.
36:54
Speaker 2: Whittaker. Is there any fight you're forcing to go all
36:56
Speaker 2: in on in twenty and below?
36:59
Speaker 3: If you had twenty teams or less.
37:04
Speaker 4: I think I'd be all in on both title fights,
37:06
Speaker 4: actually both of them.
37:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll get there, so we'll elaborate when we get there.
37:10
Speaker 3: But if someone told me that they were going all
37:13
Speaker 3: in on this AuSn fight or a BOOST fight, I
37:15
Speaker 3: wouldn't call you crazy. The reason I'm not necessarily is
37:19
Speaker 3: mainly the reason we just said three. All three fights
37:22
Speaker 3: expected to finish. This could fight, This fight could score
37:25
Speaker 3: ninety two is the winner. Usually ninety two in the
37:28
Speaker 3: mid tier is great. But if the Booze fight and
37:31
Speaker 3: the Silver fight outscore that, then maybe it's left off
37:34
Speaker 3: at ninety two and you go all in. You block
37:36
Speaker 3: yourself for being live at that times that day. So
37:41
Speaker 3: it's gonna be highly owned. I'm gonna have a lot
37:43
Speaker 3: of it, but I'm not gonna make a rule minus
37:46
Speaker 3: six hundred again. This is now minus one thirty. So
37:49
Speaker 3: anytime I say the odds, remember I update this. I
37:52
Speaker 3: put this up usually Wednesday viz odds, and then Friday
37:55
Speaker 3: update them. So if I'm reading off the current lines
37:58
Speaker 3: right now, if you see something different, that means the
38:00
Speaker 3: line did move since Wednesday, which now could carry a
38:04
Speaker 3: minus one thirty five fights left big Marleau, keep it going.
38:08
Speaker 3: We have decent fight in terms of real life, not
38:12
Speaker 3: a fight I love much. In terms of dfs, Shara,
38:14
Speaker 3: Maga Mattav taking that Arman Petrojian minus one sixty three
38:18
Speaker 3: Maga Metav plus one forty three is Shara. This fight
38:22
Speaker 3: is plus one ninety five to finish Magamtap plus two
38:26
Speaker 3: seventy five inside the distance Petrojy and plus five to
38:29
Speaker 3: seventy five.
38:30
Speaker 2: I'm underweight on this fight. I think we have two strikers.
38:33
Speaker 3: I know we have two strikers going at it, two
38:35
Speaker 3: high volume strikers as you can see right here on
38:38
Speaker 3: the stone. But even if they both land one hundred
38:41
Speaker 3: significant strikes, it goes to decision. The winner's not scoring
38:44
Speaker 3: one hundred, it's not scoring ninety. I think you want
38:48
Speaker 3: that on this card.
38:49
Speaker 2: I don't even know.
38:50
Speaker 3: My preferred side is probably Armin for the savings, but
38:53
Speaker 3: Shara I think has more upside. Like if someone were
38:56
Speaker 3: to finish, I think it's Shara, and he has good volume,
38:59
Speaker 3: so maybe, But the problem is to my right there
39:03
Speaker 3: to pour you right there a boost right there, like
39:06
Speaker 3: it's not a fight I love and doesn't look like
39:08
Speaker 3: you love it, either with a three star.
39:10
Speaker 2: How do you see it?
39:11
Speaker 4: Yeah, I actually just moved it down to a two
39:13
Speaker 4: star as we were speaking.
39:16
Speaker 1: Are you were speaking?
39:17
Speaker 4: But yeah, I think it's gonna be a striker striker's delight.
39:21
Speaker 4: Both these guys are really good, high level strikers. I
39:24
Speaker 4: think Maga Medov is more dangerous, so he has the
39:27
Speaker 4: higher ceiling.
39:28
Speaker 1: Maybe I prefer that.
39:30
Speaker 4: But on the other end, Petrosian is one of the
39:32
Speaker 4: more live dogs on the card, so even at seventy
39:34
Speaker 4: six hundred dollars, I would guess he gets around ten
39:36
Speaker 4: x in a win. He's live for a knockout too,
39:39
Speaker 4: but I think he's more likely to just win a
39:41
Speaker 4: close decision. But I like the guys ending and V
39:45
Speaker 4: on this card, and Maga Metov is one of them.
39:48
Speaker 4: I don't expect him to wrestle like I would hope.
39:52
Speaker 4: I mean for the other vs anyways, not for him.
39:54
Speaker 4: But I think he's good enough to land volume maybe
39:57
Speaker 4: payoff in eighty six hundred dollars in a day decision.
40:02
Speaker 4: So he's probably my preferred play. But it's just one
40:04
Speaker 4: of those where like if I if I start the lineup.
40:06
Speaker 1: With him, I build it out. I don't love what
40:08
Speaker 1: I see.
40:08
Speaker 4: Then I'm fine just changing him out, going Petrosi and
40:11
Speaker 4: then seeing where I can go from there with my
40:13
Speaker 4: line up. Yeah, overall, I think it's one that I'm
40:15
Speaker 4: not gonna target a whole lot.
40:17
Speaker 3: I'm with you, not a fight out if I had
40:19
Speaker 3: zero that fight in twenty and below IV five, But
40:22
Speaker 3: I don't plan on xing them out pre flop at
40:26
Speaker 3: least as them now. If that changes, the slave plan
40:28
Speaker 3: will be updated. Everything will be up tomorrow and again
40:31
Speaker 3: ten am Eastern is the start time, so make sure
40:34
Speaker 3: to get those lineups in early. Also make sure to
40:36
Speaker 3: hit that light button helps us out of a ton
40:38
Speaker 3: much appreciated. Next fight on the card, we have Laro
40:43
Speaker 3: Murphy taking on Dan Egay. Murphy minus two ninety Egay
40:47
Speaker 3: plus two forty five Murphy. This fight's plus two fifty
40:51
Speaker 3: to finish. Murphy plus four twenty five inside the distance
40:54
Speaker 3: Egay plus five hundred. Another fight I don't love much
40:58
Speaker 3: at all, and Big Mariley, I'm gonna throw it to
40:59
Speaker 3: you on this first. I think this line's too wide.
41:02
Speaker 3: E Gay never been finished Murphy. It shows undefeated, but
41:07
Speaker 3: he lost to Willie Katt. I believe it was Willie
41:11
Speaker 3: katt In in London on short notice Santo, so I
41:15
Speaker 3: think he should have a one next to his name.
41:18
Speaker 3: Do you think Lauren Murphy has enough up or has
41:20
Speaker 3: upside on his slate to be on the winner right
41:22
Speaker 3: price right by to my Ilia oral By, like how
41:26
Speaker 3: much wrestling can he do?
41:29
Speaker 2: He is not an opponent.
41:31
Speaker 3: I love playing high price take fighters against, especially when
41:35
Speaker 3: this is one of the most likely fights to go
41:37
Speaker 3: to the distance on the card at minus three twenty five.
41:39
Speaker 2: So I'm debating fading larn In twenty and below. Let
41:43
Speaker 2: me know if that's dumb. How do you see that?
41:45
Speaker 2: And the what are you doing with Egan?
41:47
Speaker 1: Now? I think I'm cool with that.
41:48
Speaker 4: I think the line is way too wide. I'm probably
41:50
Speaker 4: gonna end up betting Egay. I'm fine with Murphy being
41:54
Speaker 4: the favorite, just based on how he looked in his
41:56
Speaker 4: last fight. That was a career best performance from him.
41:59
Speaker 4: He looked amazing in that fight. But he Gay's a
42:02
Speaker 4: tough fight, maybe his toughest fight yet. Probably it is
42:05
Speaker 4: his toughest fight yet. I'm not convinced that Murphy is
42:09
Speaker 4: the better wrestler. To be honest with you, I think
42:11
Speaker 4: EGA could have success of his own with wrestling, Murphy's powerful,
42:16
Speaker 4: I think he would need to get a knockout in
42:18
Speaker 4: order for him to make the optimal lineup. I don't
42:21
Speaker 4: see him being able to wrestle enough and mix in
42:24
Speaker 4: the striking to pay off eighty nine hundred dollars in
42:27
Speaker 4: a decision win here. I think it'll play out pretty close.
42:30
Speaker 4: So my preferred play is definitely going to be EGA.
42:33
Speaker 4: If we look at the money line finish only Murphy's
42:37
Speaker 4: minus one sixty five Egay plus one twenty. Yeah, I'd
42:42
Speaker 4: much prefer that seventy three hundred dollars price tag, especially
42:44
Speaker 4: with finishing odds like that, so Egays might pick to win.
42:49
Speaker 1: Probably be a close fight.
42:50
Speaker 4: I don't even know if he's got a great ceiling,
42:52
Speaker 4: especially in the decision either, but I think he's a
42:55
Speaker 4: very live dog. I think he should be closer to
42:57
Speaker 4: the like plus one fifty or something like that.
43:02
Speaker 3: I'm with you, man, this line was really really shocking
43:04
Speaker 3: to me. We're in the same boat. I don't love
43:07
Speaker 3: Egay's upside and to win, but maybe the win at
43:11
Speaker 3: and scoring seventy twos enough as seventy three hundred. I'll
43:13
Speaker 3: never complain about live dogs getting win, but incomplete agreement there.
43:18
Speaker 2: This line is way too wide.
43:20
Speaker 3: Three fights left, as you can see, two star, five star,
43:23
Speaker 3: five star, so you can see where Big Marley's thoughts are.
43:26
Speaker 3: Maga mat Ekelve taking on Alexander rackage minus three eighty
43:30
Speaker 3: five is at Klaiath plus three ten is rackage plus
43:33
Speaker 3: one fifty for this fight to finish at Kaliath plus
43:36
Speaker 3: one to ninety five inside the distance rackage plus six hundred.
43:41
Speaker 3: I think this fight's a lot like the Freed fight
43:43
Speaker 3: for me. Alive Canny get there, he can wrestle. I
43:47
Speaker 3: think it'd be smart for him to wrestle in this fight.
43:49
Speaker 3: He should put on a big time performance or try to,
43:52
Speaker 3: because he keeps getting snubbed from the title fight because
43:55
Speaker 3: he's too boring, so making a statement would be in
43:57
Speaker 3: his best interest. Rackets. She has good light cakes, but
44:01
Speaker 3: I just never bet against that Calive. I know there's
44:04
Speaker 3: very mixed feelings on him. He just doesn't lose. I mean,
44:07
Speaker 3: Paul Craig caught him, but other than that, he just
44:10
Speaker 3: doesn't lose. Like I'm not betting against him. I think
44:12
Speaker 3: I'm gonna fade Wreckage Anklam. I don't love him in
44:15
Speaker 3: the upper tier though, but he will be different, especially
44:18
Speaker 3: if you leave three hundred plus from the Kennedy stuff.
44:21
Speaker 3: So for that reason, solo shipping. Chance he wrestles a
44:24
Speaker 3: little bit, I guess I'll play some. Tell me who
44:27
Speaker 3: you like more though, between him, Murphy and far Reid
44:31
Speaker 3: rank it and then yeah, what are you doing this one?
44:34
Speaker 4: I like for Red the most, and then Anklive than Murphy. Yeah,
44:43
Speaker 4: I only like Anklive if he's gonna go out there
44:45
Speaker 4: and wrestle or if he's gonna get a knockout.
44:47
Speaker 1: If he doesn't do either one of those, he's.
44:49
Speaker 4: Not gonna do enough work to score well. And if
44:51
Speaker 4: he wins a decision, he could score like sub seventy points.
44:54
Speaker 4: It's not gonna help us at all. I think Rackage
44:57
Speaker 4: is super live if this does. If this does go
44:59
Speaker 4: the distance, especially if it's a striking match, I could
45:02
Speaker 4: definitely see Rackets just keeping it close, maybe outpointing him
45:06
Speaker 4: by a few strikes here or there. Rackets could mix
45:09
Speaker 4: in takedowns like he's an okay wrestler and other matchups.
45:11
Speaker 4: I just don't see that this is the matchup where
45:14
Speaker 4: he's gonna be landing any takedowns. Not more than one
45:16
Speaker 4: or so, so I think rackets needs a knockout too
45:19
Speaker 4: for any real ceiling. But if you're gonna tell me
45:21
Speaker 4: this is a striking match and it goes the distance,
45:24
Speaker 4: only one of them has a chance of paying off
45:26
Speaker 4: their salary, and that's that's the rackage side. So I
45:28
Speaker 4: think rackets is my preferred play, or my preferred leverage play.
45:33
Speaker 4: I should say because he won't get much ownership and Clive,
45:36
Speaker 4: I think the name will bring out some He's not
45:38
Speaker 4: gonna be highly owned, but I just think he's more
45:41
Speaker 4: owned that I'm willing to get much leverage on. So
45:43
Speaker 4: I think he wins, just doesn't score enough. So maybe
45:46
Speaker 4: I'll mix in some rackets. If I'm not gonna play
45:48
Speaker 4: any Barnett and Hugo, maybe rackets will be my cheap
45:52
Speaker 4: punp play.
45:53
Speaker 2: How would you rank and Cali of Larron Murphy and
45:58
Speaker 2: uh for.
45:58
Speaker 1: Red freed Aunk Elijah Murphy.
46:03
Speaker 2: I like it.
46:03
Speaker 3: I agree, two fights left, two five round fights, super
46:08
Speaker 3: super pumped.
46:08
Speaker 2: Anytime we see Jamaya stepping the octagon, that's what we
46:12
Speaker 2: have here.
46:12
Speaker 3: Taking on Robert Whittaker minus two forty is Tramaiah plus
46:16
Speaker 3: two oh five is Whittaker. We have plus or minus
46:19
Speaker 3: four hundred for this fight to finish Chamayah minus one
46:24
Speaker 3: fifty inside. The distance was minus one thirty five earlier,
46:27
Speaker 3: so so money back to him to finish plus two
46:30
Speaker 3: sixty inside. The distance for Whittaker Chamaia is plus two
46:34
Speaker 3: thirty five in round one. Take it away. I will
46:37
Speaker 3: have one hundred percent of this fight. My leanest Tremaiah.
46:39
Speaker 3: I think he can wrestle and dominate Whittaker on the
46:42
Speaker 3: mat early I'm calling him early finish submission. But the
46:47
Speaker 3: longer this fight goes, I think the more benefits Whittaker.
46:49
Speaker 3: How do you see it? What are you doing in
46:51
Speaker 3: terms of ownership?
46:53
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna be pretty much all in on this fight,
46:56
Speaker 4: probably one hundred percent. I'm not gonna make a rule,
46:59
Speaker 4: but I'm I.
47:00
Speaker 1: Don't know how.
47:00
Speaker 4: I'm gonna leave it out with my handbuilds, and then
47:03
Speaker 4: I'm gonna have them projected like I'll have Whittaker projected
47:05
Speaker 4: for more than Kennedy, and I'll have Whittaker projected for
47:10
Speaker 4: more than pretty much every other underdog except for maybe Hilloway.
47:13
Speaker 4: So I'm just gonna naturally end up with closer to
47:15
Speaker 4: one hundred points, But yeah, give me Chamayev as my pick.
47:18
Speaker 4: I think he's got the higher ceiling with his first
47:21
Speaker 4: round wrestling upside, submission upside. He's got big time power
47:25
Speaker 4: early in the fight too. I think he could dominate
47:28
Speaker 4: rounds one. In rounds two, maybe he starts to slow
47:31
Speaker 4: down after that, and Whittaker's probably the one that wins
47:34
Speaker 4: rounds four and five. Maybe it comes down to that
47:37
Speaker 4: third round, but I just think that if that's the case,
47:40
Speaker 4: still give me the points that jamaiav is getting in
47:42
Speaker 4: the first three rounds rather than Whittaker getting dominated in
47:45
Speaker 4: rounds one and two coming back maybe winning rounds three.
47:49
Speaker 1: Four, and five.
47:49
Speaker 4: I think that's how one of these fights would not
47:51
Speaker 4: be on the optimal lineup. Whittaker gets dominated early, comes back,
47:55
Speaker 4: wins the last three rounds, scores around ten x something
47:58
Speaker 4: like that. But I think he's more likely to finish
48:01
Speaker 4: Chamaiev in maybe round four or five, and that'll rack
48:04
Speaker 4: up some points along the way. So I'm still probably
48:07
Speaker 4: gonna be all in for that reason. But if Chamayav wins,
48:10
Speaker 4: I expect one hundred plus points and he's most likely
48:12
Speaker 4: on the optimal lineup, So he's my preferred play.
48:15
Speaker 1: Uh, maybe he'll be my highest owned play on the card.
48:19
Speaker 1: Maybe I'll get like.
48:22
Speaker 4: Sixty five seventy percent something like that, and then the
48:24
Speaker 4: rest will be on the Whitaker side.
48:26
Speaker 2: What's going on, Takedown? What's going on? Nickel?
48:29
Speaker 3: I agree with you about a lot of what you said,
48:31
Speaker 3: and the reason I'm been going all in on this fight.
48:33
Speaker 3: I guess it's a perfect segue to Iliot Max, but
48:36
Speaker 3: I'm not on that fight. Is even if Chamaia dominates
48:40
Speaker 3: early and Winnaker comes back, I think it'd be Chamaiah
48:42
Speaker 3: getting so gassed that Whittaker probably gets a finish and
48:45
Speaker 3: it's seventy five hundred.
48:47
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna expect any win down there to be optimal.
48:50
Speaker 3: I expect any Holloway win to be optimal for obvious
48:52
Speaker 3: reasons due to his massive volume, but the same can
48:56
Speaker 3: and I expect Jamayah almost all of his wins. Again,
48:59
Speaker 3: nothing's one hundred percent, I'm saying almost, which is why
49:03
Speaker 3: I'm going all in on that fight. Tom. I have
49:05
Speaker 3: through wrestling or knockout power. I think if he wins,
49:08
Speaker 3: he puts up a big boy and is on optimal.
49:11
Speaker 3: The thing with Ilia Max is illly. I think can
49:15
Speaker 3: have what he just did last fight to Folk, he
49:17
Speaker 3: scored ninety four.
49:18
Speaker 2: He dropped on one. He's not as he doesn't throw
49:22
Speaker 2: as much volume on the feet.
49:23
Speaker 3: He's very powerful, He's a great boxer, but he picks
49:26
Speaker 3: his shots. If he gets a knockout like he did
49:28
Speaker 3: last time in the second round and scores ninety four,
49:31
Speaker 3: I would get zero if I knew he scored ninety four,
49:34
Speaker 3: especially at his ownership.
49:36
Speaker 2: Max says the volume Illy has the power.
49:39
Speaker 3: He also does have wrestling upside though, so well, again,
49:42
Speaker 3: we'll get right into this one. I have more interest
49:45
Speaker 3: in Max in DFS. I will have some fight fades
49:48
Speaker 3: to this one more than likely. I'm not making a rule,
49:50
Speaker 3: but if I did end up with one hundred percent,
49:52
Speaker 3: I'd be totally fine with it. More than likely it
49:55
Speaker 3: will be optimal. But do you agree, I guess. Do
49:58
Speaker 3: you see pass where Ilia gets a knock on the
50:00
Speaker 3: second third something like that and eighty five ninety two
50:04
Speaker 3: something like that and it doesn't get there, or do
50:06
Speaker 3: you think he wrestles a lot?
50:07
Speaker 2: How do you see this fight going too?
50:09
Speaker 1: Yeah?
50:09
Speaker 4: I think this is the opposite of the other one.
50:11
Speaker 4: I think Chimayev is the one that ends up on
50:14
Speaker 4: the optimal lineup with.
50:15
Speaker 1: Any win, and this one, I think it's Holloway if
50:17
Speaker 1: he wins.
50:18
Speaker 4: No matter how the win goes, Holloway's on the optimal lineup.
50:21
Speaker 1: But it's a Pooria win.
50:22
Speaker 4: Could not make it just because he's priced at eighty
50:24
Speaker 4: eight hundred. Like you said, a second round knockout ninety
50:28
Speaker 4: two ninety four probably not gonna cut it on this card.
50:31
Speaker 4: But I do think that Taporia is live to land
50:33
Speaker 4: some takedowns. He's live for a knockout in the first round.
50:37
Speaker 1: Two.
50:37
Speaker 4: It could be a really high volume fight from his
50:39
Speaker 4: side as well. So I just think I'm gonna go
50:42
Speaker 4: all in on the title fights and then mix in
50:44
Speaker 4: whatever else happens throughout the rest of the card. But
50:49
Speaker 4: I'm gonna be on the Max Holloway side. I mean,
50:51
Speaker 4: if this was a pick him line, I would have
50:53
Speaker 4: taken to Poria. I don't know if I've ever picked
50:55
Speaker 4: against a Pooria, but the line talked me into Holloway.
51:00
Speaker 4: I just don't see how you can say that Toporia
51:02
Speaker 4: wins this fight more than seventy percent of the time
51:05
Speaker 4: with Halloway coming off probably the best performance I've ever
51:08
Speaker 4: seen from anybody ever in that Gaechee fight like he
51:11
Speaker 4: was he was. It was a masterpiece the whole time.
51:15
Speaker 4: Then he gave him a chance in the last ten
51:16
Speaker 4: seconds of the fight. He knocked him out with one
51:19
Speaker 4: second remaining. It was the coolest shit I've ever seen,
51:22
Speaker 4: to be honest with you. So I'm on the Holloway
51:25
Speaker 4: side because of the line and just DraftKings, He's a
51:29
Speaker 4: DraftKings gold. Anytime he wins, his his volume is amazing.
51:34
Speaker 4: If anyone's gonna slow down in this fight, it's gonna
51:36
Speaker 4: be to Poria. And if he starts to slow down,
51:39
Speaker 4: Halloway is gonna put it on him. He's live for
51:41
Speaker 4: a late finish. But we don't even need a finish
51:43
Speaker 4: seventy four hundred dollars.
51:44
Speaker 1: We just need a win and he'll be on the
51:46
Speaker 1: optimal lineup.
51:46
Speaker 4: So this will be the option for me where I'll
51:48
Speaker 4: probably have sixty five seventy percent Holloway and then.
51:52
Speaker 1: The other the rest of it until Porio.
51:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love it.
51:56
Speaker 3: I probably if I had guess my highsz lone fighter
51:59
Speaker 3: in the is probably jamaiav. Holloway is probably up there
52:03
Speaker 3: pretty close as well, because I mean, one are the odds. Again,
52:07
Speaker 3: I never fight Steck, I'm not gonna do it, but
52:10
Speaker 3: their odds are in zero. That to Pouria wins this fight,
52:13
Speaker 3: but Holloway's on the optimal and not to pour youa
52:16
Speaker 3: it would have to be by decision and have to
52:18
Speaker 3: be a pretty close fight.
52:20
Speaker 2: But like Max's volume is so so good, he can
52:23
Speaker 2: get there.
52:24
Speaker 3: And again with thirteen fights, and we do think dogs
52:27
Speaker 3: are gonna come through. We talked about many live ones.
52:29
Speaker 3: It's more likely that that's not going to be the case,
52:32
Speaker 3: but we've seen Max get there. He did it against
52:34
Speaker 3: Volk when every underdog lost. Like, if we're going into
52:37
Speaker 3: this fight and all twelve favorites one so far, Max
52:40
Speaker 3: would be a very high likelihood to be on the
52:42
Speaker 3: optimal because this fight eight in the over I believe,
52:46
Speaker 3: let's see over three and a half is over four
52:51
Speaker 3: and a half's minus one thirty, so right there, If
52:53
Speaker 3: this fight goes over four and a half and no
52:55
Speaker 3: dogs have won Max's volume, he's at least probably landing
52:59
Speaker 3: one hundred plus. A last thing on this fight, how
53:02
Speaker 3: much do you think iliat wrestles, because he definitely has
53:05
Speaker 3: a grappling advantage. Matt's very good takedown defense though, But
53:09
Speaker 3: I guess do you think Ilia can wrestle?
53:12
Speaker 2: Do you think he'll try to wrestle? Yeah? What thoughts
53:15
Speaker 2: on that?
53:17
Speaker 4: I don't think it's really in the game plan for
53:20
Speaker 4: him to wrestle. I would think it's more of like
53:21
Speaker 4: a fallback on it type of thing. If you're if
53:24
Speaker 4: you're getting outstruck, let's start shooting for takedowns now, or
53:26
Speaker 4: if you get hurt, shoot for a takedown. But I
53:29
Speaker 4: wouldn't think that he's gonna start wrestling early in this fight.
53:32
Speaker 4: And if he does, I don't know. I mean, that's
53:33
Speaker 4: probably not great for his gas tank. I wouldn't feel
53:36
Speaker 4: awesome about him in the fourth and fifth rounds.
53:39
Speaker 1: If he's wrestling in round one, that makes sense.
53:42
Speaker 2: That's all thirteen fights, Fingers crossed weigh ins.
53:45
Speaker 3: Everything goes well, We have thirteen going into Saturday, seven
53:49
Speaker 3: am by time ten Eastern for many bright and early
53:53
Speaker 3: alarm clock. Nothing better than early violence. Two hunder k
53:56
Speaker 3: up top two five rounders. All of her content will
53:59
Speaker 3: be up tomorrow. Projections, Ownership the Stone, this will be completed.
54:03
Speaker 3: You'll see stars right here. You'll see color coding. Everything
54:07
Speaker 3: will be updated there co reports from Big Marley myself,
54:10
Speaker 3: Slate playing breaking down all the fights, tier rankings, fight
54:12
Speaker 3: rankings again, NFL's going, College football is going, Shout out
54:16
Speaker 3: Hammock absolutely crushing. PGA is still going, Swing season, NBA,
54:20
Speaker 3: NHL no better time to join ship a Nation dot com.
54:24
Speaker 2: If you want to give us a try, this is
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Speaker 2: our best deal.
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Speaker 3: the promo code NBA fifteen if you do join any
54:48
Speaker 3: of these good stuff. Big Marley timing to make some
54:51
Speaker 3: money this week. What did we say? Awesome, awesome main events.
54:54
Speaker 3: Very excited for Ilia Max, very excited for Jamaiah to
54:58
Speaker 3: be back. And then free money s today the next day.
55:01
Speaker 3: Let's have a weekend, good good talking fights. I always
55:04
Speaker 3: with you, Big Marley. Be safe this weekend. Everybody out there.
55:07
Speaker 3: Good luck for Big Marley. Up title TWN Peace