Latest / Elon Musk Podcast / China is Weaponizing the Moon

Transcript

China is Weaponizing the Moon · Elon Musk Podcast

• 0:00
  What if the first permanent human outpost on the moon
• 0:03
  doesn't have a NASA patch or a United States flag, but a
• 0:06
  Chinese flag? What happens if in just a few
• 0:10
  years, China isn't just visiting the moon, but controlling where
• 0:15
  the next chapter of human space activity gets written?
• 0:19
  Now Beijing has given its answer.
• 0:22
  A lunar landing by 20-30 and a base by 2035 and a sprawling
• 0:27
  outpost network by mid century now.
• 0:29
  No vague timelines here, no future possibilities.
• 0:33
  It's all written, mapped out and already in motion.
• 0:37
  It's a state strategy, and over the past decade China has
• 0:41
  transformed from a competent space player to the most
• 0:44
  aggressive builder of off world infrastructure since the Cold
• 0:48
  War. It's human moon program now has
• 0:51
  an operational countdown. The Long March 10 Super Heavy
• 0:55
  rocket is already in development.
• 0:57
  So is the new crude Lander. And they're developing lunar
• 1:00
  grade Eva suits, building new launch infrastructure and
• 1:04
  finalizing astronaut selections. Now, the tone from officials
• 1:10
  tactically understated. Everything is preceded in an
• 1:15
  orderly manner in China's space lexicon.
• 1:17
  It's usually assigned Things are ahead of schedule.
• 1:20
  This all stems from a space program that's been logging
• 1:24
  serious accomplishments. China landed a Rover on the far
• 1:27
  side of the moon in 2019. It brought back lunar samples in
• 1:30
  2020. Is Tianyang space Station has
• 1:33
  been permanently crewed since 2021 and its current planning
• 1:38
  includes Shenzhou 20 and 21. The two new crude missions to
• 1:44
  orbit that are intended is training grounds for longer
• 1:48
  duration deep space operations. The human element is expanding
• 1:52
  to China recently inked a deal with Pakistan to train and fly
• 1:57
  astronauts to Tiangong, the first confirmed foreign visitors
• 2:00
  to the space station. That move isn't just a nod to
• 2:04
  international goodwill. It's a signal China is willing
• 2:08
  to share its latforms as long as it's in the driver's seat.
• 2:13
  And at the heart of this effort is the International Lunar
• 2:17
  Research Station, or ILRS, first announced in 2021 alongside
• 2:22
  Russia. The project has not become a
• 2:24
  mostly At the heart of this effort is the International
• 2:27
  Lunar Research Station, or ILRS. First announced in 2021
• 2:31
  alongside of Russia, the project has now become a mostly Chinese
• 2:36
  LED venture. The plan is methodical and built
• 2:39
  around 2 phases. First a basic but operational
• 2:43
  research at the Moon South Pole by 2035, then an expansion into
• 2:48
  a multisite lunar system by 2050, featuring nodes at the
• 2:53
  equator and the far side. Think of it as less as a moon
• 2:57
  base and more as a small off world nation linked together by
• 3:01
  orbiting hubs and robotic logistics.
• 3:04
  This is a comprehensive lunar station network that utilizes
• 3:07
  the Lunar Orbit station as its central hub and the South Pole
• 3:11
  station as its primary base, and it'll include exploration nodes
• 3:16
  on the lunar equator in the far side of the Moon.
• 3:19
  It's a blueprint for permanent infrastructure, but China's not
• 3:23
  planning to haul up steel and concrete from Earth to build it.
• 3:26
  That would be logistically absurd.
• 3:29
  Instead, they're testing the moon's own dirt as a
• 3:31
  construction material. They recently launched brick
• 3:34
  samples made from simulated lunar regolith to the Tiangong
• 3:38
  space station to assess how the hold up under deep space
• 3:42
  conditions where temperatures swing between 180 and -190°C.
• 3:50
  The bricks are a key part of their 2028 mission, which will
• 3:53
  test in situ construction using autonomous 3D printed robots
• 3:59
  nicknamed Chinese Supermasons. That mission will also finalize
• 4:03
  site selection for the ILRS. China has zeroed in on the lunar
• 4:07
  South Pole for good reason. What are the few places on the
• 4:10
  moon where sunlight is nearly continuous?
• 4:13
  And that's ideal for solar power generation.
• 4:16
  And it's home to craters that may contain large reserves of
• 4:19
  water ice. That water can be split into
• 4:22
  hydrogen and oxygen, essential for breathable air, drinkable
• 4:27
  water and also rocket fuel. Then there's helium, 3A rare
• 4:32
  isotope trapped in the moon's soil that China sees as a long
• 4:36
  term solution to its energy puzzle.
• 4:39
  It's barely present on Earth but relatively abundant on the moon.
• 4:43
  And if nuclear fusion ever crosses the threshold into
• 4:47
  commercial viability, Helium 3 could fuel clean reactors with
• 4:51
  10 times the energy output of traditional fission without
• 4:55
  radioactive waste. Whoever controls Helium 3
• 4:59
  controls the future of energy markets.
• 5:03
  Now that makes the ILRS not just a science base, but a potential
• 5:07
  mining operation. Chinese researchers at the
• 5:11
  Beijing Research Institute of Uranium Geology are already
• 5:14
  working on extraction techniques.
• 5:16
  And China's Chang Six and Seven missions are focused on
• 5:20
  identifying helium 3 rich areas ahead of planned harvest trials
• 5:25
  in the Twenty 30s. Now this space is not only a
• 5:28
  platform for lunar science, though, it's also a test bed for
• 5:31
  human Mars missions. The logic is straightforward.
• 5:35
  You prove everything on the Moon.
• 5:38
  China's three phase Space Development Road map, released
• 5:41
  officially in 2024, lays out the progression from Earth orbit to
• 5:45
  the Moon to Mars and beyond. Phase 1, running through 2027,
• 5:49
  is about building technical competence.
• 5:52
  Phase two, 2028 through 2035, moves into human lunar landings
• 5:57
  and base operations. Phase three target in the Twenty
• 6:00
  40s and beyond includes crude missions to Mars and other deep
• 6:04
  space destinations. Tianwin 3, China's planned Mars
• 6:09
  sample return mission, is slated for 2028 now.
• 6:12
  If successful, it would beat NASA's equivalent project by a
• 6:16
  few years. That wouldn't just be a
• 6:18
  scientific win, it would hand China a major diplomatic talking
• 6:23
  point as the first country to pull off a round trip to Mars
• 6:28
  now. And China isn't doing that
• 6:30
  alone, though There's 13 countries involved, including
• 6:33
  Russia, Egypt, Senegal, and they've all signed up for
• 6:37
  participation in the ILRS. The number could reach 50 by
• 6:41
  2050. It's a contrast to the US-led
• 6:43
  Artemis Accords with emphasized transparency and rulemaking.
• 6:47
  Partners can come on board, but it's Beijing's ship, and the US
• 6:51
  has repeatedly pointed out that the moon isn't for claiming 1967
• 6:55
  Outer Space Treaty prohibits sovereign ownership of celestial
• 6:59
  territory. But the treaty has loopholes.
• 7:02
  Any country can withdraw with 12 months notice.
• 7:06
  And while legal scholars debate the letter of the law, China may
• 7:09
  be preparing to demonstrate a kind of de facto control through
• 7:13
  infrastructure presence, not with flags, but with permanent
• 7:18
  operation. In 2012, a Defense analyst
• 7:21
  report laid out a plausible future scenario in which China
• 7:24
  could assert operational authority over its lunar
• 7:28
  territory, citing both strategic necessity and prestige.
• 7:34
  That hasn't happened yet, though.
• 7:36
  But now that China is building exactly that kind of base, the
• 7:40
  scenario seems less speculative. Then there's the military angle.
• 7:45
  China's space program is officially civilian, but dual
• 7:48
  use technology is hard to ignore.
• 7:51
  Communication arrays, nuclear power systems, and long range
• 7:55
  sensors all serve scientific missions and also military ones.
• 8:00
  A lunar presence enables space based surveillance, logistics
• 8:03
  control, and sys lunar operations that extend far
• 8:08
  beyond the Moon itself. Sys lunar space, the volume
• 8:11
  between Earth and the Moon, is quickly becoming the next
• 8:14
  theater of strategic interest. By controlling infrastructure
• 8:17
  along that route, China could influence not only lunar
• 8:21
  operations, but future operational traffic, deep space
• 8:24
  launches, and also satellite networks.
• 8:27
  None of these require weapons though, just the ability to
• 8:30
  observe, respond, and control the flow of information.
• 8:36
  So why does any of this matter to the rest of the world?
• 8:39
  Because the Moon is no longer neutral.
• 8:42
  It's becoming a domain of economic, political, and
• 8:45
  strategic war competition. Whoever dominates the moon could
• 8:49
  shape global access to off world resources, influence energy
• 8:54
  markets, and control interplanetary logistics.
• 8:57
  It's a live geopolitical issue now.
• 9:01
  It also matters because space law hasn't caught up.
• 9:04
  Most agreements around celestial activity are decades old and
• 9:08
  vague by today's standards. But no enforcement mechanics, no
• 9:11
  global authority managing space conduct.
• 9:14
  It's infrastructure that sets the rules, and right now China
• 9:18
  is the one pouring concrete. And if China succeeds in
• 9:22
  building the ILRS by 2035, with mining and power systems in
• 9:25
  place, by the twenty 40's, the rest of the world will be
• 9:28
  negotiating from behind. Not because they lost a race or
• 9:32
  a war, but because they never ran in it.
• 9:35
  I want to know what you think about China being ahead of NASA
• 9:38
  and ahead of the United States in the Artemis program.
• 9:42
  Let me know in the comments down below.
• 9:43
  And while you're down there, hit the like button and the
• 9:46
  subscribe button. And when you hit the subscribe
• 9:48
  button, it's not only going to show you more content like this
• 9:51
  from me, but it'll also show you other creators that do similar
• 9:55
  things like Space Flight, NASA tech, things like that.
• 10:00
  So you're going to get out of this more than I do.
• 10:03
  I love you here, but you're going to get more content from
• 10:06
  creators that you love. So thanks so much for watching.
• 10:09
  Take care of yourselves and each other.
• 10:11
  I'll see you in the next one.