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The Favorites - NFL Week 12 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Mellman of the Action Network. Today is
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: our week twelve Tuesday episode. We're going to break down
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: the entire slate of NFL games. We will discuss our
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: exec decision, which candidly I have been struggling with since
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: I started doing my research on Monday. We will discuss
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: our sign and says. We'll start to narrow down the
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: options for the faves five for the five phaves to
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: put into our Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Football Pick Them contest. We went three and two this
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: past week. That's on me. I'm going to own it.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: We had talked all week about liking the Chargers, loving
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: the Chargers. We were way ahead of the market on
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: this professional Betters. We're all over the Bengal. It really
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: came down to the Chargers and Browns in our conversations.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: I wanted the Browns. Simon, one of the Chargers. He
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: acquiesced because I said it would be good for the show. Ultimately,
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: he knew I would be embarrassed. Alas, here we are
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: coming off of a three and two week instead of
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: four and one. Turns out four and one is probably
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: better for the show than three and two and me
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: having chosen the wrong team. Live from our Tommy John
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Holmes Studios, I'm joined as always by my co host,
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, Michael Padre, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: so I'm in.
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Chad, I definitely Jake pauled you on Sunday Night.
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: I pulled some punches you were Mike Tyson. I pulled
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: punches just because of what happened with the Bears. I
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: felt so bad. You didn't need me to pile on.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: I was just like, I'll let this go because Chad,
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: he doesn't need this right now. But we're onto a
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: new week. This is gladyat your two week. Everyone knows
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: the movie Gladiator two is coming out this week. That's
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: all that really matters, Chad. So let's move on to
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: the best week of.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: The year, Big Weekend. I have friends who loved the
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: original Gladiator.
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: I love it. I've watched it one hundred times, so
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: have I.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: I loved it so much. I have friends who named
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: their kids Maximus.
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: In no way, what's their last I can't say that probably,
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: but if you have the right last name, that can
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: be a sick name. Maximus, Yeah, the right last name.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: It's a great name. He goes by Max. In a moment,
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: we will recap the results of week eleven in our
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: contest and announce the winner of our big weekly cash prize.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: If you haven't yet, still time you can win weekly
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: cash prizes. Sign up for the free Favorites Podcast one
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest, presented by
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: our sponsors BET three sixty five. Visit Favorites dot actionnetwork
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: dot com as a reminder of the Favorites podcast Like
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: I Said is presented by Bet three sixty five and
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get one hundred
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Sign up using promo code Favorites, Deposit ten dollars, place
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: a bet for five dollars, get one hundred and fifty
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment,
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: it's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five must be
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: older on Kentucky gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: restrictions apply Congratulations to Week eleven first place winner Ty
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: Schalter tie went five and er missed the Monday night
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: football tiebreaker by just four yards. That is that is tough,
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: So he takes home our one thousand dollars weekly prize.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Well done tie. As always, Producer Matt Mitchell have selected
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: his Producer's Cup Award to the entry that finished dead
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: fucking last in this contest.
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: Have you loads loser?
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: He's a loserbout he still kids on time. This week's
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Producer Cup goes to i McGuire seventy nine went on
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: to five and missed the tiebreaker by three hundred and
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: thirty yards on the guire, email our producer at podcasts
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: at actionnetwork dot com to claim your prize. Finally, reminder,
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: it's legit. We have a new Favorites Live event to
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: announce plan on at the time. Why are you not
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: at the time. This is not why we've been talking
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: about it. It's time to RSVP, folks. That is respond
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: very promptly, CIVO play the date. It's about three weeks
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: from today, Thursday, December twelfth, Philadelphia, Center City, Philadelphia, Prime location.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: It's beautiful the Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philadelphia. We'll
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: do drinks, we'll do a live Q and A with
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: me and Simon. Matt Mitchell's going to be there too,
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: six pm to eight pm. Basically, we're having a happy hour.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: We're gonna have a few drinks, we're gonna talk about betting,
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: and then we're all gonna hang out and we're gonna
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: watch the Rams and the forty nine Ers. It is
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: free to get in. Check out the link and either
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: the podcast description page or the YouTube episode description. Simon
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: and I will tweet it out as well. You must
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: RSVP listen. Space is going to be limited, and the
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: events we've had in the past have been loaded right,
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: and so please RSVP December twelfth, get there, all right,
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Simon's time for Week twelve. First game on the board.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Our favorite team, the Pittsburgh Steelers. They're visiting the Cleveland Browns.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: It opened it for we immediately thought it was too
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: high and we immediately thought, simon, thank god, we don't
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: have to put this in the contest, because we knew
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: we'd have to bet the Browns. The wise guys have
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: bet the Browns. It's down to three and a half.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: What are you seeing? What are you hearing? What are
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: you feeling?
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they like this spot for the Browns, and it's
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: just it's tough for me because you just said, I
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: just love this Pittsburgh team. They've been so good to
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: us and they're so gritty and unlike Cleveland. They're a
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: well coached that's playing hard Pittsburgh And maybe it's because
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: it's a short week. You know, they just played a
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: brutal battle against that Ravens team. I mean that was
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: really a game that no team should have to play
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: a short week after that type of game. Right, And
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: on the flip side, this Cleveland team probably stopped trying
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: midway through the third quarter, so they're not as banged
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: up as it's Pittsburgh team. So it is interesting that
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: they we talked about the professionals, they came in heavy
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: on this. This was four and a half five when
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: it opened, and now it's down, like you just said,
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: a three and a half in most books. So you know,
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: look in the action app right now, all the money,
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: all the tickets you just said, it's all on Pittsburgh.
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: So that's that's real respective professional money coming and moving
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: that number when all the money is on the other side.
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: So you're right. I'm happy we can avoid it. But
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: if you're doing a pickpool like we do, I'm taking Cleveland.
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: But I'm not happy about it. But it just seems
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: like the right spot to back this team the way
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: they match up, right, it's good, but it also Pittsburgh.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: This feels a little bit like the peak. This feels
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: like a nice time to step off, just because we've
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: been riding these last couple of weeks and the value
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: finally feels like it's coming around the other way. So
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: I'll take those good number three and a half.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Four.
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: If you're lucky out there on this Cleveland team.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: Well, look as good as Mike Tomlin is as a dog,
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: and we rode that train. We got a lot of
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: gravy on that train with Mike Tomlin as a dog, right,
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: But his record as a favorite and as a favorite
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: on the road is the mirror of how good he
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: is as an underdog and as an underdog in tough
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: spots like he was last week. So this has to
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: be a play on Cleveland if you want to play
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: this game yet in the hook. Home teams on Thursday
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: Night Football eight and three this year included the fight
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: in Philadelphia Eagles last week, which I was at. But yeah,
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: I like the Browns looked terrible against the Saints. We
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: love well, we I love the Rounds against the Saints.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: The wise guys love the Browns. Yeah, against the Saints,
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: it seemed like the right.
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: Spot looks like they can't quit them.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: They're hard to quit. But look, you're not wrong. Like
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: the Steelers are a really well coached team, the Browns
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: right now are not. And that defense is nothing like
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: it was last year. So as always, it's a risk
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: buyer beware. Indeed, Kansas City and Carolina. Carolina is an
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: eleven point underdog at home double digit favorites five and
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: against the spread this year, including the Detroit Rock City Lions,
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: who we had as our big balls bet of the
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: week last week. So of course, like we said on
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: Sunday that we have to take the Panthers if not
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: for the contest. Then just in real life, the Lions
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: moved to Scoche. You know, eleven and a half to eleven?
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: Have you bet this game?
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: I bet it, but I bet it was err confidence.
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: I bet it just because of the number, right, Like
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: I think this should be eight and a half. It's
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: all way up to eleven. My model has been wrong
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: about Carolina basically all season, so I'm trusting it once again.
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: But it's like, do you have confidence betting this number?
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: Probably not. We're betting arguably the worst team of football
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: against arguably the best team on football, and they're coming
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: off a loss, their first loss this season. But me
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: and you just we both look at this Chiefs team
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: is they're they're good, but they're not blow team out good.
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: And if they do blow you out, it's really going
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: to be We got burned by brace Young once again.
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: That's the reason I'm not so confident put this one
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: in because it's like he's covered two straight one too straight, right,
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: and then went into his bye week. It's it's not
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: ideal for a guy that's barely tasting any success to
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: be feeling himself after three weeks now playing the World champs.
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I wouldn't mind passing on this one. But
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: me and you, I don't know. By Thursday, we could
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: be suckered into it. But I just it's just the number.
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: It's such a good number of great value on this
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: this Carolina team that we've just seen him. Mahomes plays
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: with this food. He does not blow teams out, He
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: plays down to his competition level, and he usually plays
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: close games his big favorites.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Well, look, it's a weird week because I don't know
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: about you, and I haven't seen a ton of numbers
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: that scream to me value value value.
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: Wow, another way, I love this week's interesting. All right, Well,
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be a good week. I feel bad for
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: the public this week. It feels like they're about to
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: get slaughter.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: All right, good, I'm glad. I'm glad you feel that way.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: This game is the only one to me where it
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: feels like it's it's inflated based on what the ratings
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: should be, not based on I got a hammer that
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: the Panthers here. You know, I can just envision, you know,
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: Bryce Young walking into the facility with the backpack that
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: hangs down to the back of his knees and his
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: little bobble Head and he's watching film. He's like, Oh, yeah,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: I think I can see how how we can beat
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs because we did it against the Giants, and
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: we did it the week before, and so I think
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: we got a real shot here. And then you look
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: at the matchup and forget about the over inflation. Really,
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: the one thing, the only thing the Panthers have been
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: better than average at this season is running the ball,
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: and they're blocking has been good, Truebahabbard's been good. Expectations
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: are that the running game might improve this week. I
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: think that rookie from Texas might play this week. Yeah,
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Jonathan Brooks, Yeah, Jonathan Brooks. But that's what the charge
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs are amazing at. We saw this past week
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: like the Bills couldn't run.
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: The ball, No, and so actually they did our running.
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: But I agree, it's it is one of the chief strengths.
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: But there's a reason this total is forty one and
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: a half, right, that's where you're kind of getting at. Yeah,
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: I mean this is a crazy load total for and
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: again it's why we can't avoid this number. That's such
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: a load total. And so the game was there's not
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: gonna be that many points, So we're getting eleven points.
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: It's just the books know what they're doing. They know
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: we can't help ourselves, and they're protecting themselves against the
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: ten point teasers. That's why this number is so huge.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: Patrick mahomes forty seven percent against the spread if the
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: line is more than three, If the line is more
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: than ten, thirty nine percent against the spread in twenty
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: five games, if it's more than ten on the road,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: are you ready? Oh? Three and one?
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: Jeez?
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: Does that make you want to put onto the contest
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: a little bit more? Here's what I'm gonna do. No,
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: but here's what I'm gonna do.
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: It makes me happy. I bet it that I didn't
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: get scared off by it.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: I'm just making a note, Carolina plus eleven. I want
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: to see if we get any like, you know, wise
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: guy calls, if we get any sharp calls from this.
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: Now, they're going to be on it. I can already
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: tell you they're going.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: To be, Like but how aggressive? How comfortable? Because I
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: can't find any of the matchup reasons, Like We've come
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: to a consensus here, like if we're going to bet
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: an ugly dog, we at least want them to be
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: graded something. It's why we've been riding the Colts this
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: year and we've been winning with that. I don't see
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: them being great or anything. Uh, all right, Minnesota at Chicago.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: I'm so excited to talk about this one. Open at five,
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: immediately move to three and a half. As of noon today,
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: it's down to three. Remind people, I don't know if
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: you even remember this. Do you remember what you told
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: me on Sunday night regarding what the wise guys were
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: saying about Caleb Williams that I supported what they were
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: seeing based on what I saw, But what did they
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: tell you?
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah? Like, I was at the book and I've said,
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: I'm not watching. There's certain games I'm watching because the
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: way the TVs are and that was not a game
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: I was really focused on. And you know, the guys
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: that did watch it, they loved what they saw from
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: Caleb Williams. Chicago effect. He's paying freer And we talked
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: Sunday night. I just was like, Okay, if guys I respect,
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: I know we're gonna put down decent money on this team,
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: are going to move this number. It's going to keep moving.
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: And that's what we've seen, right. We joked Sunday night
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: or I didn't joke, but I said grab the three
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: and a half because this is going to get the
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: three was gonna probably make him assignment, says if I
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: still could get three and a half at bat three
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: sixty five, but that's gone. There are some books out
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: there you can't get it.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: But yeah, a lot though it's getting painted pretty quickly.
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it just feels like again, there's a couple games
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: we're gonna talk this week. It's a very pros versus
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: Joe's week, and this is another one of the games.
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: Just like Carolina, this is all professional money right now
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: on this side where it's all public money coming in
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: heavy on Minnesota. So yeah, this is a game where
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: I want that three and a half though, chat, do
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: you hear where I'm coming from? We here with this matchup,
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: it's like I kind of want that three and a
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: half just because it is a divisional game.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess what I'm thinking about the bear. I
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: completely agree with you. I just why is what professional
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: vetters saying they saw with Caleb Williams in this game?
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: Why is that not an overreaction to just one game,
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: Like it was a very different defense that he faced
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: on Sunday versus what he will face against Minnesota for
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: the very first time, right, and like this defense, it's
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: it's pretty predictable. They've gotten lit up by quarterbacks who
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: can handle pressure, Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and they've dominated
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: the quarterbacks who can't, Joe Flacco, Mac Jones, Will Levis.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: What is Caleb Williams in this scenario? Right? Is he
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: more Flacco? Is he more Levis? Or is Stafford? And Golf?
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: Like I don't get from one game a sample size
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: in which he still completed fewer than seventy five percent
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: of his passes and no touchdowns doesn't leaps off the
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: page to me, is yeah, he's ready for Brian Flores.
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: Very confusing defense that looks like it's coming at you
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: and then drops into coverage that is fair.
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: But he has he has like we talked about all Yeah,
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: I think he just plays better at home and we've
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: it's kind of proven out this season. He's feel more
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: comfortable at home, the offense runs better at home, and
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: in this matchup. I think the books are agreeing with
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: everything you just said, but it's both sides, like they
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: think Sam Darnold's going to struggle in this match as
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: well against this Bears defense. I mean this opened at
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: forty one. It's already down to thirty nine and a
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: half at most books this total. So the professionals love
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: the Bears and they love the under and I kind
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: of agree with them, Like this matchup to me for
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: this Bears team. We've been talking about this Vikings team
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: all season. They've been winning on defense. The Bears for
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: the most part, we can agree they've been winning on
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: defense this year too. Yeah, the offense, the games they
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: show up, that's the games they've won because for the
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: most part, their defense has kept them in every game
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: and every time they played. So yeah, this this defense,
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: I think could give problems to the Vikings offense. But
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: it's also like I totally get you're coming from. Like
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: now that we're talking about Brian Floors versus Caleb Williams,
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: it's not ideal, like this guy is going to give
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: so many exotic blitz looks, it's going to really throw
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: his head for a loop. But we just saw it
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: last week where it's like they tried blitz and they
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: tried to give him crazy looks and they really had
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: nice counters to all of that, like they were doing
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: quick passes for him, which is what he's comfortable with.
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: Like he has really good receivers one on one right,
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: even though Dunesay was winning one on one. So I
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: think he's starting to realize it's like he doesn't need
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: these long downfield plays and hold on the ball for
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: more than three four seconds, take the quick hitters and
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: move the ball metrically down the field. It's just it's
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: something he struggled with earlier in the year, and I
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: think someone gave him a good talking of, like, dude,
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: you're not going to win twenty yards at a time here,
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: Like you got to take the five to six when
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: you can. And that's what he's really adjusted to you
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: last week. So I agree with you, though it's it's
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: not ideal taking it. That's why I went the three
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: and a half because I just think that's that's the
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: smart number here. But I also wouldn't be scared off
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: taking the three because that's still a good number.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: I feel like the three is a line in the sand, right, Okay,
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: we just can't, like, why would let's get the hook.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: If we're gonna do it, let's get the hook. Sam
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: Darnold has completely turned into a pumpkin. Could not score
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: against Indy a couple of weeks ago, could not score
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: against Jacksonville a couple weeks ago. He was fine against Tennessee,
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: but he completed just sixty two percent of his passes.
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: He had three passes that it counted three completions that
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: accounted for more than forty percent of his two hundred
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: and forty six passing yards. He had three really long
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: passes between Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson that accounted for
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: about one hundred and fifteen yards, and everything else was
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: dank dnk dnk, doc dink doc, you know, five yards
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: at a time against a good Tennessee defense. Also fumbled
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: twice and the Titans got out of that game. We
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: talk about the luck rankings all the time. Titans had
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: been unlucky, like they've had a couple plays and penalties
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: on touchdowns and on interceptions and on fumbles that they
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: were covered that were then called back. Not a great
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: look him to give you the for the vikings and
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: Sam Darnold. One stat that is flying around on the
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Chicago Friends text chain. Shout out to my lifelong friend
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: Andy Goodman for sending it the Bears on Sunday had
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: a seventy one percent chance to win. In the past
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: three seasons under Matt Eberflus, they've had five different games
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: in which they had a ninety chance of winning. It
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: just continues to show you how terrible this guy is
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: as a coach, and that the end of that game, thinking,
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: all right, I'm good at forty six when he's got
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: a little kicker. Everyone knows his trajectory on those longer
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: kicks is to hit a line drive. Because he's not
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: great at forty five plus What a fucking idiot, honest.
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: So he's going to make someone happy being a DC.
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: I think he is a good defensive coach. You're right,
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: Like some guys, they just can't do both, and he
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: cannot do both. He just does not make the smart decision,
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: especially when the pressure is turned way up.
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: Can I interest you in the Dallas Cowboys plus ten
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: at the Washington Commanders?
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: No, got no interest in it. Me neither.
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: I wanted to so bad. I wanted to find a way.
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: When we can talk about the game, like, obviously it's
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: a huge number, and you know, Jane Daniels hasn't looked right,
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: but it's like this Commander's team. What we've seen from
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: this year is they're a really good team, and this
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: after playing a really tough Pittsburgh team then playing a
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: really tough Eagles team, this is the type of team
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: they should just beat the shit out of them. So
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: I got no interesting that the number makes sense. It
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: should be up to this point, Like if it's either
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: Cooper Rush or Trey Lance, neither guy are you consistently
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: excited about on third down? Like, if it's third down,
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: if it's more than five yards, do you really think
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: they're gonna make that completion. That's that's the way I
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: view their offense right now. They're just it's just a
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: lost season for the Cowboys and just yeah, if you're
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: someone like us, you bet they're under and didn't believe
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: them this season. Sure it's great, but it's like we
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: know the deal. It's they had major issues coming to
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: the season, and then once Dak got hurt, that's that's
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: the end of it. So it's like, you know, every
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: team has seasons from hell. This is the definition of
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: a season from hell from this Cowboys team. I don't
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: think have they not won a game yet this season?
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: At home?
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: Chad they haven't won a game. So I was watching
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: the game last night, my kid pointed this out to me.
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: They haven't won a game of home at home this year,
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: literally in the calendar year, because remember they got blown
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: out by the Packers in the playoffs. Yeah, right, and
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: they haven't won this season.
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: And that was in the regular season. They didn't lose
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: a regular season game, right, that was like the crazy
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: part last year.
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: The roof is literally caving in a Jerry world.
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: A note to keep in mind about Jadon Daniels. You
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: just said he's been struggling. So I went back and
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: I did some research and looked at some games he
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: had the four game stretch he was completing like eighty
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: percent of his passes. He has yet to complete more
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: than seventy percent of his passes since then. He has
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: especially struggled against good defenses Steelers Eagles. So as we
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: get further into the year and we see when he's
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: matching up against these top tier defenses, that's something I
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: think we got to definitely keep an eye because I
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: still think they're gonna win this game, and their number
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: is automatically going to be inflated because the public is
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: still so enamored with him. They're going to believe that
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: he's still the world beater he was the first month
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: of the year.
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and we predict it though, It's just we'd never
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: seen anything like it before. It was never going to continue.
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: We kept saying that eventually it was gonna fall off
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: the other way, and uh, yeah, that's It's a long
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: and brutal season. That's why always talk with the kids
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: come out of college, like, you know, they play what
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: twelve games in the regular season, and then I guess
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: they play the playoffs. Now, yeah, when you start hitting
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: that wall at week ten eleven, you're just like, man,
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: we still got seven more games to go. It's a
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: real thing that these rookies run into. So yeah, Jane
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: Daniels still the odds on Big Favorite. I think bon
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: Nick's probably came on here. I looked soon his odds
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: are for Rookie of the Year. I think it's still
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: plus four hundred. So obviously the book's still giving a
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: ton of respect to Jane Daniels.
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: I really want to find a way to be on
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: the Patriots. The numbers Miami minus seven dropped from seven
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: and a half. Miami's on a two game win streak,
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: Like I did do little research yesterday. Home division phaves
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: between seven and nine and a half, just fifty percent
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: against the spread the past twenty years, but in the
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: AFC East fifty five percent. However, by you laughing.
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: No, it's just crazy.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: Twenty nine of those wins for the AFC East between
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: the Patriots and the Bills, so you kind of discount
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: that that as a factor. I just thought it was
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: interesting that that number seemed high when I looked at it,
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: and then you dig a little deeper and it'say, oh yeah,
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: it's because the Patriots dominated as favorites of seven or
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: more in the division for twenty freaking years, which.
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: Not against Miami like that was that was a nice
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: gift to us for a long time where anytime Tom
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: Brady the boys would go down there, some weird voodoo
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: would happen and they wouldn't just lose to like them
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: as big dogs, like it would be the weirdest lose
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: loss ever. I mean, the one that really popsmated. Everyone
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: remembers that gronk mistackle and then run that ball, and
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: it's right, there's just like a bunch of weird things
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: that happened that Brady Air where it's like anyone else,
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: the Bills, the Jets, Brady killed him, but when he
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: went down to Miami, weird things would happen. And you're right,
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: this number we liked Sunday Nights seven and a half.
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: It's moved down to seven if we still get contests.
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: Seven and a half very tempting. Like I'd rather put
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: this in the Panthers, I tell you that much. I'd
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: rather be pissed off that we took a rookie on
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: the road in this spot than taking that Carolina team.
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: So it's like there's a couple of ugly dogs. I
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: like this week, and this is a dog I'm comfortable
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: just because we've seen a week in week out, this
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: Patriots team has no quick and a number this big.
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: We get to Miami team that we don't fully trust him.
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: Even last week we kind of talked about how that
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: game was gonna go right. The roof was open, the
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: Raiders were in black, they were gonna keep it close,
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: and then somehow they would just fall Apart from that
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: heat in the second half, they started making dumb decisions.
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: That's it looked like it happened like that Raiders team
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: completely fell apart in that second half and they got rolled.
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: I think Miami end up putting thirty one on them,
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: Like they really did dominate in that game. So yeah,
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: this this feels like a spot yet, like it feels
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: like a number one play. We'll putting our money line
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: around Robin Like. I just like divisional games like this,
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: especially when the Patriots have shown us that they're just
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: no quit in this team. And with Drake May running
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: the ball right, that's been the biggest difference. He's so athletic.
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: The defense has to account for that, having to have
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: a guy step up and they can't cover the middle
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: of the field. That's a big deal for a kid
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: like him that needs a pass the ball downfield. So yeah,
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: you're right, we went to seven and a half. We
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: might only be able to get the seven, brother, but
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: I'd still take it here.
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: You know, it's interesting in my notes, I wrote down,
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: don't we think the Fins are frauds? Like there's nothing
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: I watched them and I don't feel any confidence watching them.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: I felt like the Rams gave the game away two
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: weeks ago into his return. Yeah, I felt like they
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: let the Raiders stay in it until the very end.
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: Didn't need to. They're fancy with their motion. They're getting
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: Tyreek more involved, They're getting Jalen Waddle more involved. They're
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: better with two obviously.
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I was gonna say. I think two
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: is the difference. I think he's still a top fifteen,
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: top twenty guy where it's like he's not going to
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: be changed the world. You see in that offense with
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: timing routes. He is good and like us, throws on
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: certain plays. But I'm with you. I just they're definitely
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: not the team they were last year in any measure.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: Drake May his offensive line is ring thirty first in
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: pass blocking, and he is kept in his team in games,
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: played well enough to scare us, even saving us once
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: this season. But I don't know about you, but like
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: we had the Rams minus four and a half on Sunday,
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: and when Drake May had the ball at the end,
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: I did not feel super confident that he wasn't going
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: to drive them down the field. I actually felt like,
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: oh fuck, this kid got moxie and he makes plays.
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it was more of like fuck this Patriots team,
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: they better not get another one. I can't deal with
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: them having another guy after Tom Brady like Mac Jones.
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: Mac Jones, that makes sense. That's what you guys should
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: be going through. Just shitty quarterback for the next twenty years.
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: If this kid's the real deal, that would have killed me.
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: If you would have drove that field that Rams team,
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: Chad oh Man, that I would have been like, God,
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: damn this Patriots team. But they once again found another guy.
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: But luckily he is mortal. He threw a pick. He
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: ain't the chosen one.
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: He is impressive, though, I don't mind betting on him.
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: He's good, but he's I'm just saying like that would
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: have been terrifying if that kidd drove that field against
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: that Rams team.
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: Tennessee at Houston. Houston is now an eight point favorite.
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: One has moved up since last night from seven and
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: a half to eight. So you know, I just gave
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: you the stat Home Division phase seven to nine and
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: a half, just fifty percent against the spread the past
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: twenty years. How much credit did we want to give
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: the Texans for beating up on the Cowboys? Not much.
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: CJ was relatively unspectacular, in fact, had some pretty ugly throws.
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: I don't hate the Titans.
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: Now I'm on the other side. I like Houston. Like
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: this numbers you do ten? Yeah? Who the fuck has
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: been in Tennessee? Give us a ten? Sports books? What
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: is this number? I think they're one and nine against
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: the spread this season. I could be wrong, but I
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: just want Will Levis is terrible. He's horrible. And that's
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: the issue here. It's like Houston, they're actually a good team.
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: Like we talket coming to the year, they were a
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: team at the very end before this season, I got
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: scared out. I was just like, all right, I'm on Houston,
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: just because you look at this team on paper and
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: they're really good. There was a difference that game. The
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: biggest difference we talked about the Nico Collins effect that
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: he opens up the whole field and Joe Mixon can
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: do Joe Mixon things. And we've seen that now when
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: Nico Collins plays the safety, stayed back and Joe Mixon
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: just plays better. And in this matchup, you know, even
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: if the run is tough, we've seen the Tennessee as
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: good as their defenses, there's ways to attack it and
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: teams have been doing it all season. Right, it's the
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: big plays downfield. So he's got tanked out, he's got
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: Nico Collins his two big play receivers. That's a good
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: matchup for Houston. On the flip side, I don't think
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: the books have corrected enough. Like watching that Tennessee game
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: last week, Minnesota gave him every opportunity to be in it,
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: and this kid could not complete passes. He like he's
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: either thrown a deep touchdown or it's three and out.
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: Like there is no in between with him. He is
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: He's out of this league after this year. He's not.
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: He's not a quarterback that's gonna last. He's just he's terrible.
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: They're gonna keep rolling them out there because what we
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: always talk about, like, let him play it out. If
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: he shows you something eventually, okay, maybe you bring him
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: back next year. But then he gets you a good
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: draft pick and you're drafting a guy. So Tennessee, to me,
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: we talked this team, there's bad teams this year, and
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: after last week, I've realized there really are teams that
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: are just giving up already, even though we're not even
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: a Thanksgiving yet. You're just seeing these bad teams not trying,
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: and Tennessee feels like one of them. So I'm not
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: putting any money on them, I'd bet Houston or I
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: just stay away, So.
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: I think I'm maybe I'm biased. I forget about Will
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: Levis for a second. They had so many bad things
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: happened to them in that Vikings game. That continues to
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: make me feel like with that defense, and I have said,
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: I don't believe the superficial stats Tennessee Titans allowing the
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: few as yours per game. That's kind of bullshit, Like
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: those things don't mean anything in terms of how you're
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: analyzing these games. But they like, they had plays in
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: that game where huge plays were called back because of
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: stupid mistakes they made, because the penalty is whatever. So
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: that's why I'm a little hesitant to go rankings.
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: Chad. We did a whole thing this summer with Nick Giffen.
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: It's about the coaches, as much as you want to
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: say it comes down to luck. Rankings, we realize pretty quickly, Oh,
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: Tomlin's not lucky. He's not the luckiest coach ever. He's
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: a great fucking coach. Dennis Allen, he's not the most
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: unlucky coach ever. He's a terrible coach for that Saints team.
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: So it's like, I think that was my biggest takeaway
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: from the luck rankings is you obviously need luck as
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: a coach. Everyone does. But some of these guys are
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: just bad. And this right now, this Tennessee team is
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: so bad. So I get where you're coming from, brother,
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: but it's just we just keep getting burned on by
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: him and we keep going back to the well. And
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: it's just every week we can say, oh, they had
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: a little bit of bad luck here and there, it's like, no,
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: they're just a poorly coach team that's got a horrible quarterback.
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: All right, well, then we'll pass on this one. I
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: mentioned at the top of the show Simon that we
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: are to our listeners live from our Tommy John Home studios.
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: We are heading into late November. It's the regular season
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: stretch run for the NFL. We want you, our dear listeners,
• 33:12
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• 33:17
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• 33:21
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  Speaker 1: When I'm with you and when I'm wearing my Tommy
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: John underwear. Simon, why will you be giving the gift
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: of Tommy John this season?
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: It's a gift that lasts.
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: That's right. The Black Friday sale has begun. If you're
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: looking to score your gifts early, go to tom me
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: John dot com slash favorites for thirty percent off right now.
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: Save thirty percent sight wide for Black Friday at Tommy
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: John dot com slash favorites. That's thirty percent off for
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: a limited time at Tommy John dot com slash favorites.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: If you guys, don't think I'm going all in on
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: Tommy John for the holidays, Matt Mitchell is getting a
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: quoted pullover. He's gonna be so excited, all right, Simon.
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: Detroit at Indie Indie plus seven and a half. These
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: are our two favorite bet On teams of the year.
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: They're playing each other. It's like Sophie's freaking choice here.
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: Detroit Can't Stop Covering is a big favorite. Indie Can't
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: Stop Covering as an underdog. We win with both of them.
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: Practically every single week. One of these teams has to
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: cover on Sunday. One of these teams can't cover on Sunday.
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: Which one will it be?
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: I wanted to take the Colts. I think, like you said,
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: I think I'm blind to this team that I leve them.
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: I think the right side is Detroit. They're just they're
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: the better team and they're just playing at a higher
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: level right now. And you know, the Colts, I'm happy
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: for them that that was a big win against that
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: Jets team. Me and you said, we thought that Jets
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: quit three weeks ago and they have not won a
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: single game since firing their head coach Sala. So we
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: throw that game out. Now you have Anthony Richardon going
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: against the best team in football according to sports books.
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: The odds on favor in the Super Bowl this is
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: under ten. Shouldn't we take it like this was like
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: we're getting a good number, and I know, like this
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: is usually a spot. Me and Chad go for the Colts.
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: We talk the Lions are breaking the rules right now.
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: We are going to fade them. There are divisional games
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: coming up that's gonna be nice numbers and good matchups,
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: and we always talk divisional games are just different. This
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: ain't that this is ad division indoor against the Colts
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: defense that can't stop anything. I mean what Aaron Rodgers
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: up twenty seven points last week? I mean, yeah, come on,
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: So not gonna overthink this one. Going with the chalk
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: once again, going with Joe Public. I'll take the lines
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: on minus seven and a half. It has been years
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: since the Detroit crowd has been this excited about the Lions.
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: Talk about rescoring the roar.
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: Listen to him. Yeah, we got to ride one of
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: these waves one way or the other. I'm much more
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: comfortable that. I'm glad you came to that conclusion. I
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: came to the same conclusion this morning doing a lot
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: of the research. The big thing that worries me all
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: the time about the Lions is their defense, and you know,
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: how are they going to perform. They don't have a
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: pass rush at all without Aiden Hutchinson. But I'm not
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: sure that matters very much against the Colts, because Anthony
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: Richardson's strength is going to be finding ways to get
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: outside the pocket and use his legs if he is pressured.
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: And then the one thing that really sticks out to
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: me is how good the Lions have been at forcing
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: turnovers this season? Right, and so They've been phenomenal at
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: forcing turnovers this year. I read this in Bill Barnwell
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: in his excellent column on ESPN dot com. They have
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: forced takeaways on just over sixteen percent of opposing drives
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: sits since Aden Hutchinson was injured. That's the fifth highest
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: rate of any unit. Their secondary has just become elite.
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: The turnovers that they are generating, they're coming from Kirby Joseph,
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: They're coming from the play of Brian Branch Like. This
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: secondary has just been amazing. And since Hutchinson went down.
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: While they're not perfect on defense, they've allowed offenses to
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: convert just thirty one percent of their third down opportunities,
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: third best in the NFL, the red zone fifth best
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: since Hutchinson went down. They're tightening up the back end.
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: They're tightening up in the spots that matter. We're going
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: with the lines. Tampa Bay at the New York Football Giants. Boy,
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: let me give you the pattern since Sunday night, Are
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: you ready? The Bucks were favored by three, then they
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: were favored by four, Then they were favored by three
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: and a half, then four, then three and a half,
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: then four, then four and a half, then five, then
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: five and a half, and this was before Brian Dayball
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: announced Daniel Jones had been benched in favor of Tommy DeVito.
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: Had to know, right, Yeah, yeah, no people know.
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: Are you saying that? You say that with confidence?
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, just because the betters always no before the public.
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: It's all a game. There's always leaks, especially organization like
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: the Giants, who are not well run right now, right
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: they're one of the easier teams the leak. Yeah, this,
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: we were gonna take the Giants now, it's like, how
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: do you not take Tampa, like Tommy DeVito against this
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: Tampa team, Come on now, come on now. But it's
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: like we could get Vito magic. Maybe some magic will happen.
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: He will somehow cover this game. But it's still under six.
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: I don't hate that. If you want to take this number,
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: it's not a game. Mean, you were probably gonna take
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: like I'd much rather obviously take some other favorites we've
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: already talked about than this one. But yeah, this number
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: to me hasn't moved enough. I'd still take Tampa as
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: long as it's under six. Right now.
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: I kind of like the Giants more with Tommy DeVito.
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: That's fair. I got no argument for it. I mean,
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: that's that's how bad Daniel Jones has been this year.
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: But it's Alisa Gifford. Let us know that there were
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: report to Mike Evans practiced on Monday.
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: That'd be a big deal so he could be back. Yeah,
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: but no, Let's move on. There's better dogs this week.
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: Stay away from this one.
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: Denver at Las Vegas. The Raiders are five point underdogs.
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: This is another one. Moved up three and a half, four,
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: four and a half, five, five and a half, got
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: some buyback at five and a half, and then it
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: went back up to from five to five and a half.
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: Let me give you a stat. Road favorites off of
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: a blowout win forty five against the spread since two
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: thousand and four, and this, by the way, has been
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: an ROI loser since two thousand and seven. Betting on
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: the road favorite after a blowout win has lost you
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: money every single year for the past seventeen years. What
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: do you think of that? Yeah?
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: Pretty simple, right, Like, don't overthink it. You're supposed to
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: take the Raiders here, and if it wasn't for those
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: stats about these divisional dogs not cash and this would
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: be an auto five for me and you. But because
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: this is I mean Denver off a blowout, this is
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: peak like them covering against the Chiefs. We already knew
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: last week was gonna be a little hyped up, but
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: they completely dominated that Falcons team. I mean, Michael Pennox
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: came in what the third maybe early fourth, Like they
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: threw the white towel in pretty early. So yeah, I'm
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: happy another game. I'm happy to stay away from. Just
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: I get why you're people are betting Denver. I totally
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: understand the movement. This Raiders team look like they simply
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: quit last week against that Miami team, and that was
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: them coming off of bye week, and it's just like,
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: whatever whatever went on early in the year with the
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: head coach, he totally lost that locker room like early on,
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: and that team is not kind of reality around them.
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: I know they've had injuries too with Max Crosby and
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: you know Wilkins, but you know, I just I can't
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: get there. Brother. I don't know if you liked this
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: Raiders spot, but I just have no interest making this
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: one five.
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: I don't love the like. The only trend I like
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: is fading the Bronco. Fading the Broncos off a blowout,
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: but I don't like anything else about it, And there's
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: nothing about the Raiders that makes me feel comfortable that
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: I can hang my hat on. In fact, the thing
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: they seem to be the best at is turning the
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: ball over, and so you know, like I just have
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: this vision of the Raiders are down by ten driving
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: late Gardner Minshew, who has already lost four fumbles on
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: the year, which is second most in the NFL. He's
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: got thirteen total turnovers this season, which is top five
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: in the NFL. He sacked and stripped at the Broncos
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: twenty yard line with two minutes left in the game.
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: Like that's you know, sometimes you can see the back door,
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: like with Drake May, I can feel like I see
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: that back doors open. Yeah, Gardner Minshew, I feel like
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: he's the one who walks up to the open door
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: and says, hey, guys, guys, guys, you left the door open.
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: Let's all be cognizant of the ac let's not let
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: the heat outside the house. And he's the one who
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: closes the door.
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, sounds right.
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: San Francisco with green Bay. Green Bay is now a
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: two and a half point favorite. This is interesting to
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: me because you flagged this one on Sunday night. San
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: Francisco was a one and a half point dog, and
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: if I'm not misremembering, you liked San Francisco as a
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: one and a half point dog.
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I thought it'd be a nice Bilo spot. But
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: obviously with the party injury, it's it's different, like he's
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: got a bad shoulder, you know, if he's out, Like yeah,
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: like I almost cheated and made this, Simon says, because
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: it's like, why not grab this number now because if
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: he is out, this goes way up, right, this goes
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: up to four or five, maybe even six if Perty's
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: out of this matchup. So yeah, it was just a
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: game i'd like because I was like, I could see
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: this line flip. It would be a nice by Low
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: spot on this four n Iro team. But yeah, with that,
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: with that news, I've I've only made two bets right
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: now in this game that's just been on green bed
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: bet in win those two bet when again it got
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: two and a half because I thought, okay, this might
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: keep going up with Perty's out. If he's back, I'm
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: happy to buy in my position if I really like
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: the forty nine ers here. But yeah, this is a
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: game where if you're gonna bet it early, I would
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: just bet Green Bay to be safe because if Perty
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: is a tough son of a bitch, if he's missing
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: practices or he's limited this week, it's gotta be something
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: pretty damn serious. So definitely something we'll be keeping our
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: eye on. But kit Kittle apparently will be back this week,
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: which again, big deal to me for this four n
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: i ros team. He's one of the best run blocking
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: tight ends, not only the receiver but on the bus
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: blocking tight ends and football.
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but what about Nick Bosa, Like, I don't know,
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: I watched the Yeah, I don't think. I watched the
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: Nick Bosa post game and he looked like someone had
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: run over his dog, right he was answering the questions.
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: Kudos to him because he stood up there and was
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: not a jerk about answering questions about his oblique and
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: how much pain he was in and he flat outside.
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: I'm definitely definitely concerned that I will not be able
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: to play next Sunday. And I felt like and anybody
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: watching that game could see what a massive difference between
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: when he was in and what Gino Smith could do
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: and when he was out and Gino Smith drives the
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: length of the field and scores the game winning touchdown.
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: So that's awesome.
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: We joke, that's just been Gino this year, Like he
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: just he he had He does nothing for the entire game. Also,
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: he'll turn it on and these random spots like me
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: and you almost got burned that rams game, right, He
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: didn't nothing in the two minute drills though. The two
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: minute drills really shine for both sides. So yeah, that's
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: like I just said, if you're gonna grab a number,
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: I think it's the Green Bays the number to grab
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: right now.
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: Like, I don't think there's any edge otherwise.
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: Major issues right now for the forty niners.
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: Between all the injuries, both of these teams feel like
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: they can't quite figure out how to put it all
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: together in the same drive, let alone in the same game. Right,
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: they're so inconsistent. They'll look amazing doing exactly what they
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: should be doing, and then they'll have a random mistake
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: that kills a drive. It's an interception, it's a fumble,
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: it's a holding, it's something stupid, and they're stalled at
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: the forty two yard line and they miss a field goal, right,
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: and so I'm a little nervous about both of these
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: teams with the injuries. I favor the Packers Arizona at Seattle, folks,
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks are one point favorites right now. This is
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: why you have to listen to the show on Sunday
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: nights though, because the Cards were as much as two
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: point dogs on Sunday night when we discussed it, they
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: were down to one and a half. The line actually
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: flipped to the Cardinals minus one and then flipped back.
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: We both bet the Cardinals as dogs on Sunday night, Simon,
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: why is this number back at Seattle minus one? Oh?
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: I think we both thought that, like this is good.
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: This was we said, Arizona is gonna be the public side,
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: like who's coming in Ben? That Seahawks team. Everyone feels
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: how we feel that they got really lucky against that
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: forty nine Ers team last week and that we don't trust,
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: you know, or this defense and this Arizona team. They
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: should be the lead in this division, right They've been
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: the best team from start to finish right now in
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: this division, no doubt about it.
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: Like, yeah, but the Seahawks are now the favorites again.
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: Oh okay, in this in this matchup. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: But Arizona's minus one ten right now for this division,
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: so it's you know, I think the fort Nits are
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: down to plus three hundred of most books for their division,
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: which is crazy to think. Uh. The Seahawks obviously think
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: they're dead last. So this is kind of the statement
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: game for them this season. Maybe, Chad, maybe that's the
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: professional thing here where it's like, Okay, this is their
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: this is their season, right. They stole that game against
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: the forty nine ers that they can steal this one.
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: They can get into the playoffs, like there's a there
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: is a path for them. But I don't know. It's
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: it's hard to like, I just I want I can't
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: get down the Seahawks. I'll be honest, like, I honestly
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: want to be on Arizona in this game or nothing
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: at all. And you're right, maybe I could be patient
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: now because I have a good number on this Arizona team.
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: I don't need to buy a bad number right now.
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: But if you're getting plus one and a half on
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: Arizona again, I'd take that number because I just said it.
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: I think it's by kickoff. I just can't I'd be
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: shocked if Arizona is not a favorite by kickoff. It's
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: just everything points to them being the better team this season,
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: and this isn't that bad of a matchup for them. Now,
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: maybe some weather something we'll look into, because if it
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: is bad weather, do I want tiny hands Kyler Murray
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: handling my football? No, I don't want that. I don't
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: want to. I don't like an indoor quarterback outdoors in
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: bad weather. So uh, that's something I'll definitely keep my
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: eye on. So nothing. I can't really think of why
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: the Professor's coming on the Seahawks though, Chat It's it's
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: an interesting spot for them because don't we just I
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: think we both agree we expect it to be a
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: letdown spot for them after that emotional win last week
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: and Arizona come off a bye week. But you know
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: they have a read on it.
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: Fifty one and sunny on Sunday in Seattle. You know what,
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals, They're putting their cards on the table off
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: of a bye chance to take a bigger lead in
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: the division. Can they prove it to us? Executivy decision time?
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: Really? Yeah, the choice between the unthinkable and the impossible
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: text to executive decision.
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: Wow, why do you say it like that.
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: I don't know there's there's another game you pegged for,
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: But okay, I'm with.
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: It really hmm. Interesting, all right, I'm surprised you don't
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: love the Cardinals more in this spot I do.
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: I just the line move and freaked me out when
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: it was going favorite. I was like, nice, good call,
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: this is the way it should be going.
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: You know what.
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: I I want to hear from what professionals are buying
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: the other side.
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: Then, I don't know that they are, like I'm looking
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: in the I'm looking at action right now. Tickets on
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks, money on the Cardinals.
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: Interesting.
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think people got too excited about the Seahawks
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: beating the Niners the way they did, and they forgot
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: a little bit about the Cardinals, which I think is
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: not uncommon. So we're talking about the public here, like
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: very short memories, right. So I'm with the Cardinals. Philadelphia
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: at the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are three point underdogs.
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: This was one of our stronger positions on Sunday Night.
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: You were leaning Eagles two and a half. It was
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: moving in their direction. Brandon Anderson does the excellent hot
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: read segment on the Sunday Night Action Network podcast with
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: Evan as well. He liked the Eagles at two and
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: a half. I think there might be a couple two
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: and a half's out there. I bet the Eagles at two.
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: And a half. Sorry, Chad Simon says, give me the
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: Rams plus three. We do what Simon says. I know,
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: I love the Rams here, I was. I wanted to
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: be on the Eagles. I thought that would be the
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: right side. But this seems like a total bad letdown
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: spot for this Eagles team coming off that divisional win
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: where I don't know about you, but I think herts
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: played terrible in that Washington game and they kind of
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: got saved by Saquon. Yeah. This this, this is this
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: might be me just falling in love with this Rams
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: team too much once again. But they're just so good
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: offensively when all the guys are there, like everything they
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: can do offensively. I just trusted more right now than
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: I do this Eagles team. And this Eagle secondary has
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: not been tested against a veteran quarterback with veteran receivers
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: like this Rams team has. I just I like this
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: match with this Rams team. So yeah, that was one
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: of those things. I think I just got sucked into
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: it because it's like this Eagles team is better this
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: RAMS team. This is a nice spot to sell them on.
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: Like that was my thought process Sunday. My model makes
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: us a pick. So it's like this Eagles team apparently
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: is crazy overvaled right now just by the general public.
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: So I'm gonna take the three free points here. I'll
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: take the Rams. Give me the plus three because I
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: can just see this getting down to two two and
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: a half by kick this. Most professionals I've talked to
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: it's all Rams money right now. Very few that I've
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: talked to it likes the Eagles. So if you won
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: the two and a half on the Eagles, I can't
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: fault you like that to me was my early read,
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: my early lean. But the smart side to me is
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: this plus three. That's where the money should be.
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: I feel like it's time to walk away from this
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: RAMS team as fast as we can. We have gotten
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: we got beat with the with the Miami game. I
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: think we got very lucky with the Patriots game. And
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: if we're looking at those as facsimiles or analogs to
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: what can happen in this Eagles games, can't put it together.
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: They have no consistency whatsoever. And their offensive line, even
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: though everyone's back, has just been fucking awful. Like they
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: didn't get sacked by the Patriots, but they got pressured
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: and they could not finish drives. They could not close
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: that team out. And this Eagles defensive line, I don't
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: know if you watch the Eagles at all, I don't
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: know if like they're one of your teams that you
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: like to pay attention to. They're fierce, and this defense
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: is getting much much better with Vic Fangio and what
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: they did against the Commanders. That's why they won that game.
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: Like Jadan Daniels just he couldn't compete, could couldn't complete
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: passes downfield. So I think this defensive line is going
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: to get so much interior pressure right where Matthew Stafford
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: hates it the most.
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: Trap. Trap, Trap, Trap, Do not bet the Eagles take
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: the Rams. Chad's giving even more reasons to bet this
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: Ram team. Don't don't walk into this trap. The book
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: is laying this one. This is the I'm almost positive
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: this is a Sunday night game. This is literally mirror
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: image of that Bengals game. All that money's all the
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: money's gonna come on this other side, and they're gonna
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: think they're getting a good number and they're just walking
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: right into it. And that's what it feels like with
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: this Rams team. I totally agree with everything you just said.
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: They've been playing possum these last couple of weeks and
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: this is the type of game where they just live
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: up to the moment. I think they roll this Eagles team.
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: So awesome. Yeah, the ram has been playing possome possum.
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: Why you think they're gonna roll the Eagles.
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: I just I think it's a bad spot for this
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: Eagles team. Like it just it feels like a little
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: in between her. They got this game and they got
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: the Ravens on deck, and I feel like they know
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: that this is like this little brutal stretch of their
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: season where they got to split these games. And obviously
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: the number, though is very telling to me, like the
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: fact that I'm looking the action app now and it's
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: just all Eagles money and the tickets and and a
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: couple of smart books I respect right now or popping
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: two's that's very telling. Like if Offshore already goes two,
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: the American books are going to be quick to follow,
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: So grab that three.
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: Simon says, all right, Baltimore at the Los Angeles Chargers.
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: The Chargers are three point underdogs right now. John Harbaugh
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: forty two percent against the spread as a favorite. We
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: know Lamar of three or more thirty four percent against
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: the spread. What do you think we take from that
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: Chargers Bengals game right now?
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: Just that Herbert Man when he's on, like we talked about,
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: he's inconsistent, but when he's on, it's incredible, like he
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: was in that first half and then he took him
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: what a quarter and a half to find it again,
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: Like he got a little little saved by the run
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: game there. But that's we talked about coming of the season.
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: That's my biggest issue with Herbert. It's like one minute
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: he looks like the top three, one of the best
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: quarterbacks in all of football, and then you know he
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: can have quarters where he just has totally go like gone,
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: He's just a ghost. He doesn't really do anything. So
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: that game, though, when just as I thought I would,
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: I thought that the Bengals offensive struggled right away because
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: that Chargers defense would give them some problems. They made
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: an adjustments, They rolled in the second half. I mean,
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: Evan has that crazy stat Herbert, he's one of the
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: worst second half quarterbacks in all of football against the spread.
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: So thank you Havan. That was an easy winn. I
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: think they were plus seventeen and a half in that
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: second second half. Yeah, this matchup once again. Wanted to
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: be on the Ravens told everyone to take the two
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: and a half. I took the two and a half.
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna get bullied and to have to take this
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: Chargers plus three. It's just it's gonna be one of
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: those things where if it gets a three and a half,
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: I might make it put in our contest where it's
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: like that's gonna be great value on a Chargers team
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: that they do have a really good defense and they
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: could push the ball downfield passing the ball, and we
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: saw Calla Hamilton got banged up once again in that game,
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: and it's like that to me is another reason that
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: it's like I kind of want to sell this Ravens team.
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: And people still think they're one of the best teams
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: of football. Mean, people talking all week, they're like, yeah,
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: they're by far the best seven and fourteen. It's like, yeah,
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: no one's gonna disagree with you. Lamar was the MVP
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: favor head into that Pittsburgh game, but we've seen they
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: do have major weaknesses and it's like they're they're popping
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: up this year and in the Horrball Bowl, I want
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: to take the dog like I do. So, Yeah, this
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: is another game where I just it's all about the number.
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: If this is two and a half, I probably would
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: feel better about taking the Ravens here, but now that's three.
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: I'm hoping it's a three and a half. I just
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: feel like that's where the value is on the Chargers team.
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: They're just to me, this year they've been the better team.
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Actually that's what I put in my notes, Like,
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: if I get two and a half, I probably like
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: the Ravens, and I get three and a half, I
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: probably like the Chargers. At three, I'm not really gonna
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: do anything with it. And the contest, we're gonna have
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: to get a two and a half or three and
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: a half because there's no ties, So I think that'll
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: be dictating what we end up doing. And I do
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: think this is when we end up putting in because.
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: Really a rare Monday night for us, you know, it.
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: Just feels like that half point is going to mean everything.
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's how I feel. I feel like this is
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: gonna land right on three. Like it feels like the
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: Ravens win on a last second field go I'll buy
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: a guy who we just should on all week. But
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: that's what makes me nervous. Though about the two and
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: a half, It's like I could see it landing on
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: two and a half too, So it's like, once again,
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: I feel more. I feel more comfortable taking the three
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: or three and a half on the Chargers.
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: I'll be honest, Yeah, I do too, except for the
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: fact that they're so bad in the second half and
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: the only thing that they are, the only thing that
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: is my solace is how bad the Ravens have been
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: in the second half. Yeah, playing pass defense and could
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: that be the cure for whatever? Als? Justin Herbert in
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: the second half.
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: He's gonna get his It's all about can they stop
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: Lamar because we've seen it Like Herbert he can when
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: he can turn it on, he turns it on. Like
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: I have no issue with this offense. Be going to
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: move the ball and score like you just said it.
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: That secondary, especially against quarterbacks who know what they're doing,
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: they're terrible. You take Kyle Hamilton out of the picture.
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: I mean this might be an auto play for us
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: if Kyle Hamilton's out, Like he's been that important to
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: this defense. So once again, this is all about the
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: number three and a half. No, Kyle Hamilton. I agree
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: with you, Chad. I'll make this on Monday Night pick.
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: Did you think I was going to take this for
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: exact decision?
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: I did, cause I just because I was like, not
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: that I knew, not that I was going to bring
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: up how much you love the Chargers on Tuesday show
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: because I'm with you. I actually went back and watched
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: I think some clip popped up on YouTube. It was
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: us breaking down that game, and I was like, how
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: the fuck did Chad not put this one in? Like
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: I loved it, He loved it. So I was like,
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: Chad's definitely gonna take Chargers this week. I think he's
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: gonna go back and take it. But I was wrong.
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: You went with Arizona, which is another team I love,
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: So yeah, this might have being big balls though I
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: wouldn't be shocked this or I don't want to say
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: the other one, but yeah, this one, this one could
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: end up being big Balls.
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: So the reason that we didn't take the Chargers last
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: week is I feel like I ended up getting a
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: little bit scared off by the move. Like we both
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: love the Chargers almost immediately against the Bengals, but all
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: the steam kept coming in on the Bengals and like
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: moving that number, and I'm just like it was similar
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: to how you felt about the Rams, right, where like
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: all the money kept coming in on the Patriots. You're like,
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: what am I missing here? And for some reason, I
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: didn't have the same courage of my convictions on the
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: Chargers that I did on the Rams to put it
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: in the contest. And I'm regretful. I'm just regretful.
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: I'm with you, but we'll move on.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: As a reminder of the Favorites podcast is presented by
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