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Falling Off The TACO Truck · Politix

• 0:00
  You are trying to foment an ideological revolution across the
• 0:05
  Democratic electorate
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_01: to make people who vote in Democratic primaries make different choices.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_02: I'm not trying.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_02: I'm Blackpill.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_02: It's over.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, everyone.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_01: You're listening to a free preview of the Politics Podcast.
• 0:23
  Depending on whether you believe Donald Trump or Donald Trump
• 0:26
  or Donald Trump,
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_01: his war on Iran is very complete or just beginning or both.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_01: He's spooked about the energy crisis he's unleashed and looking for outs.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_01: But are the events he set in motion even taco-able?
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_01: Then we'll talk about Jared Polis.
• 0:46
  Would he really use his pardon power to grant clemency to an
• 0:50
  insurrectionist?
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_01: Why would he do such a thing?
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_01: And what can other Democrats do to try to stop him?
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_01: If you want to hear the whole conversation,
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_01: you can upgrade your subscription to paid at politics.fm.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_01: Hello and welcome to the Politics Podcast.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_01: I'm Brian Boitler.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: I'm Matthew Glacius.
• 1:09
  We are recording this on day 10 of Donald Trump's illegal war
• 1:13
  against Iran.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_01: On day eight,
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  SPEAKER_01: oil futures spiked to well over $100 a barrel,
• 1:21
  which took us into a danger zone where basically everything is
• 1:24
  going to start
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_01: getting more expensive,
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_01: not just gasoline.
• 1:28
  So on day nine,
• 1:29
  Trump reached out to a CBS News reporter to say his war was,
• 1:33
  quote,
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_01: very complete.
• 1:36
  And so prices fell again,
• 1:38
  which I guess we have Barry Weiss to thank for that ricochet
• 1:42
  effect.
• 1:43
  But Trump is just acting like he wants to chicken out of this
• 1:46
  war one way or another.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_01: But the danger of this situation,
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_01: is that he can't actually do that,
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_01: at least not unilaterally or on his own.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_01: And honestly, I'm not sure there's any way for
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_01: this situation to be resolved before tons and tons of people get killed.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so how's that for a cold open?
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_01: How's your Tuesday going, Matt?
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, it's great.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_02: You know,
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  SPEAKER_02: I,
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_02: um,
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_02: uh,
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  SPEAKER_02: when oil hit a hundred a couple of days ago,
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_02: I just,
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_02: I just filled up my whole garage,
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_02: uh,
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_02: with barrels,
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_02: um,
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_02: barrels of,
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_02: of oil.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_02: And now it's down to 90.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_02: So I'm, I'm taking a lot.
• 2:21
  No,
• 2:22
  I,
• 2:22
  I,
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  you know,
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  it's,
• 2:23
  um,
• 2:24
  you know,
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  that a barrel is not literally a barrel.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_01: It's just like a volumetric quantity.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_02: Oh yeah.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_02: Interesting.
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  SPEAKER_02: It's a, it's a volume.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_02: Um,
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_02: so,
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_02: oil,
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  SPEAKER_02: uh,
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  SPEAKER_02: prices soared,
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  SPEAKER_02: uh,
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  to 115 a barrel and then they moderated down to like 105 and
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  then Trump indicated
• 2:44
  that this was about to end and it went down to 85 and now it's
• 2:48
  gone back up to 90.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and
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  SPEAKER_02: And nobody really knows.
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  SPEAKER_02: You know, there's a lot of known unknowns about this.
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  You can see from the speed with which the futures market moves
• 3:03
  up and down that the
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  SPEAKER_02: professional oil traders don't really know what's going to happen here.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_02: It's an unpredictable situation.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_02: Hang on.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_02: Can I break in?
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_02: Isn't that their job?
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_02: I mean... Well, that's what I was going to say, that like...
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_02: They clearly don't really know what's going to happen,
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  SPEAKER_02: but also they have better analysis of this,
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  SPEAKER_02: I would say,
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_02: than anybody else.
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  SPEAKER_02: Like, this is their job.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, man.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_02: This is what they do.
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  SPEAKER_02: They have a lot of money on the line with it.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_01: But look, like-
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_01: In the arc of events that you just trace,
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  they're just listening to Donald Trump for whatever he happens
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  to say at any given
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  SPEAKER_01: moment to assuage people's fears and then reacting to that.
• 3:57
  But Donald Trump seemingly didn't know that starting war with
• 4:01
  Iran would...
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_01: would cause the Strait of Hormuz to become impassable,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: just as an economic matter,
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  SPEAKER_01: as a matter of economic risk.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_01: Like, he didn't think that through.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_01: But,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: people who've actually considered the question,
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: should we go to war with Bran were like,
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  SPEAKER_01: one of the reasons we shouldn't is that the Strait of Hormuz will become
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_01: impassable.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_01: Like, even if they don't lay mines across the strait.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_01: Uh-huh.
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  SPEAKER_02: This was a known risk factor.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
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  SPEAKER_01: And like,
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  SPEAKER_01: where would,
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  SPEAKER_01: did that,
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  SPEAKER_01: did all that intelligence and wargaming and all that,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: did the oil traders just not ever read any of it?
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_02: Well, no, I mean, it seems like they did.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_02: And that's why, you know, so I guess, how do you put it?
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_02: Like,
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  the administration's viewpoint when the oil price spiked as
• 4:53
  high as it did was to,
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  SPEAKER_02: you know,
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  SPEAKER_02: act like,
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
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  SPEAKER_02: like weirdo leftists and say, this is just crazy market speculation.
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  SPEAKER_02: Like there's actually plenty of oil on the seas.
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  SPEAKER_02: Like there's no problem here.
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  SPEAKER_02: But that was of course,
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  like the futures market traders understand the oil industry and
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  they understand
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  SPEAKER_02: that even though,
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  so like the Saudi government maintains significant amounts of
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  oil storage,
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  SPEAKER_02: um,
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  SPEAKER_02: around the world,
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_02: uh,
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  SPEAKER_02: you know,
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  SPEAKER_02: and,
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  SPEAKER_02: and,
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  SPEAKER_02: um,
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  SPEAKER_02: refiners have supplies, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_02: So currently, the physical oil commodity is not in short supply globally.
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  SPEAKER_02: It's okay.
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  SPEAKER_02: And if developed world countries do strategic petroleum reserve releases,
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_02: which they probably will,
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  they will be able to further ameliorate actual physical
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  scarcity conditions.
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  But the traders were looking at this and,
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  you know,
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  ships stopped moving on the first day.
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  SPEAKER_02: But as it went past a week and the ships were still not moving,
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  SPEAKER_02: you started to run out of local storage capacity in the Gulf.
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  SPEAKER_02: And so Kuwait, Bahrain, what's the other one?
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  SPEAKER_02: UAE started ramping down their production.
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  SPEAKER_02: And so, you know, traders are looking forward and they're saying...
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  oil scarcity is going to become a big problem in the future so
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  we are bidding up
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  the price of oil right now the trump administration started
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  scolding them for that
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  uh the scolding was very ineffective so then the trump
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  administration started
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  trying to signal no like we actually understand that like this
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  can't just go on for
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  a really really really long time that assuaged people's fears
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  it was going down
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  But it hasn't gone down,
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  you know,
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  it's gone down from like the sky is falling,
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  115 level.
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  SPEAKER_02: But 90 is a lot and we will see what happens, right?
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_02: Like Trump has a lot of optionality.
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  SPEAKER_02: And I think what people don't know is can Trump end this unilaterally?
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  Yeah,
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  well,
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  okay,
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  so he has a lot of— He has the same set of options as always,
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  right?
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  It's like retreat entirely and claim victory,
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  escalate,
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  or maintain status quo.
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  SPEAKER_01: Those are basically the options, right?
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  The thing that I feel like you're seeing when the speculators
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  bid down the price of oil—
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  is some belief that this situation resembles the Liberation Day
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  or something like that.
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  And that when Trump decides to pull the plug,
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  that's the end of the crisis.
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  SPEAKER_01: And I think definitely that is not true.
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  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_01: what I think is in order to achieve that outcome,
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  SPEAKER_01: he can't just retreat and let everyone go,
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_01: phew,
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  SPEAKER_01: glad that's over,
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  SPEAKER_01: back to normal.
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  SPEAKER_01: Because of the fact that he...
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  started a war against a country that still has a regime in
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  place,
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  and they're upset.
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  And because Israel is America's partner in that war and is
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  still,
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  like,
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  a U.S.
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  ally and unable to probably,
• 8:03
  like,
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  contain the threat from Iran entirely on its own.
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  SPEAKER_01: So he, if he were to taco, would...
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  potentially just leave Iran to be continuing to bomb
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  neighboring Arab states in
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  SPEAKER_01: Israel,
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  put Israel in much greater danger from Iran than it was before
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  all of this started,
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  SPEAKER_01: and possibly the threat risk to Americans would remain high.
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  SPEAKER_01: Because
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  SPEAKER_01: Like, you know, the new Ayatollah, Trump just killed his whole family.
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  SPEAKER_01: Like, that guy is probably not just going to let bygones be bygones.
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  SPEAKER_01: The only way I can see clear to,
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  a real taco would be some situation where Trump decides that
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  the new Ayatollah is
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  SPEAKER_01: awesome and agrees to basically wipe the slate clean with Iran,
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  SPEAKER_01: bribe them,
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_01: essentially,
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_01: into letting bygones be bygones,
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  SPEAKER_01: and then...
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_01: the danger would be passed and you could have normal oil markets.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_02: this is like a very,
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
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  SPEAKER_02: we're getting into speculations about Iranian political decision-making,
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_02: right?
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, if Trump stops tomorrow, two days from now, whatever.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_02: So there was a Reuters report,
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_02: right,
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  that said the IDF is going to accelerate the pace at which it
• 9:26
  attacks like
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_02: everything that they can find,
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_02: right?
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  in Iran because the Israelis believe that Trump is going to
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  pull the plug on this
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  SPEAKER_02: sooner rather than later.
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  So they're just going to blow as much shit up as they can until
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  Trump calls it off.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, is that true?
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_02: Who knows?
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_02: This is one of these things where people are leaking things,
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_02: people are saying things,
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_02: people are floating things.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_02: So say it's Friday and Trump says, okay, we have...
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_02: Destroyed, re-destroyed the Iranian nuclear program.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_02: We have blown up their ballistic missile production sites.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_02: They have fired off a huge share of their arsenal.
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  SPEAKER_02: Like the threat is greatly diminished and it's victory and we've won.
• 10:10
  Do the Iranians try to shoot at ships that pass through the
• 10:16
  straits after that and
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_02: say,
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_02: no,
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_02: the war is still ongoing?
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_02: Or do the Iranians say, we outlasted the great Satan.
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  SPEAKER_02: We're still standing.
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  SPEAKER_02: We're victorious.
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  And now we're looking forward to getting our own tankers back
• 10:28
  out on the sea and
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  SPEAKER_02: selling our own oil and having our revenue.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_02: Like, I sincerely have no idea.
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_02: You know, I'm not party to...
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_02: Khomeini Jr.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_02: 's political thinking about this.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_02: Ali Larajani used to be a nuclear treaty negotiator,
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_02: so he did a little Western press,
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_02: but that was like 10 years ago.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_02: I have no idea.
• 10:54
  You know,
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  I don't think that the people speculating in the oil market
• 10:58
  really know either.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_02: But they at least,
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 11:04
  have more friends in the Persian Gulf than I do and are trying
• 11:08
  to work on this.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_02: It's like it's really unclear.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_02: The Wall Street Journal reporting today indicated that Trump
• 11:15
  seems to have been surprised that decapitating the regime
• 11:20
  didn't lead to either it
• 11:23
  just being overthrown by the protesters who were in the streets
• 11:26
  a month ago or to a
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_02: Venezuela-style capitulation.
• 11:30
  And that is what you get from having a president who is bad at
• 11:36
  the job and didn't
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_02: say to anybody in the meeting,
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_02: like,
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_02: What if we have a huge tactical success?
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_02: We do kill all these guys on the first day.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_02: And then they just keep on keeping on.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_02: But he has tacoed in the past.
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_02: And I think that a strength that Trump has politically,
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_02: if if Joe Biden or fucking Barack Obama,
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_02: Barack Obama did something and he was like,
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_02: I'm going to go do this progressive thing.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_02: And progressives were like, yeah, you know, we're doing the thing.
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_02: And then financial markets didn't like the thing because it was like,
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_02: ah,
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_02: businessmen,
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_02: like we're really sad about the progressive thing.
• 12:15
  And then Obama,
• 12:16
  just like a week later,
• 12:17
  was like,
• 12:18
  maybe I won't do it after all.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_02: Like people would be really fucking pissed.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_02: You know what I mean?
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_02: Like face a lot of blowback.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_02: Trump can just do whatever.
• 12:29
  He ran this whole campaign that was about how we're not going
• 12:32
  to have pointless
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_02: wars in the Middle East.
• 12:34
  And then he did a war in the Middle East and everybody on the
• 12:38
  right was like,
• 12:38
  this is amazing.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_02: And if he declares victory on Wednesday,
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_02: they're going to say like,
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_02: see,
• 12:43
  SPEAKER_02: the liberals were wrong.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_02: The war was great.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_02: And we've seen that with Liberation Day.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_02: There's this cult-like structure to the MAGA movement.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_02: Everybody in Congress is completely whipped
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_02: and intimidated.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_02: He faces no internal opposition to anything that he does.
• 13:00
  SPEAKER_02: We know that,
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_02: yeah,
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_02: like,
• 13:05
  SPEAKER_02: we know,
• 13:05
  SPEAKER_02: like,
• 13:05
  SPEAKER_02: Bari Weiss,
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_02: we know,
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_02: right,
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_02: is,
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_02: like,
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_02: a real ideologue on Middle East issues.
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_02: But,
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_02: like,
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_02: even so,
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_02: there's no way that if Trump tacos out of this,
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_02: that,
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_02: like,
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_02: CBS News is going to pivot to,
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_02: like,
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_02: American Prospect style,
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_02: I can't believe this guy sold us out kind of coverage of stuff.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_02: So...
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_02: You know, that's why I never count the orange man out.
• 13:27
  What would it take if you owned a ship carrying a billion
• 13:31
  dollars worth of cargo or whatever?
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_01: Or if you own the cargo.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_01: As I do.
• 13:36
  To say,
• 13:36
  all right,
• 13:37
  Trump is taco'd and the Ayatollah has declared victory.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_01: I'm willing to gamble on sending my ship through the Strait of Hormuz.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_01: Like, do you think that that is going to be like the overwhelming...
• 13:53
  Like,
• 13:54
  what intelligence would they rely on to understand whether that
• 13:57
  was the real deal or not?
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_01: Well, there's a price in it, yeah.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, yes.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, like, sure.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_01: With expensive enough insurance, I guess.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_01: But which insurance company is going to underwrite that?
• 14:14
  And,
• 14:15
  like,
• 14:16
  if you're Iranian,
• 14:19
  and even if you're very unhappy with the regime,
• 14:24
  your greatest enemy in the world kills like the entire senior
• 14:27
  leadership of your
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_01: government and like a hundred school girls.
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_01: And then,
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_01: um,
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_01: the,
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_01: the new leaders like,
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_01: um,
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_01: well,
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_01: we whipped their butts and there's nothing left to be done.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_01: Like, would you, would you be satisfied with that?
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_01: Would you think that they were being straight with you?
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_01: Or would you like, um,
• 14:51
  be insistent upon overthrowing them in order to get fighters in
• 14:55
  place who would
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_01: actually go after Netanyahu or American senior diplomats or whatever to,
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_01: to actually get like a real measure of revenge.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_01: like actually like,
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_02: on the ship's front,
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_02: right though,
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_02: this is where I think there's a certain wisdom in deferring to,
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_02: markets, right?
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_02: Because this is the kind of thing that oil traders, right?
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_02: That people doing this,
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_02: investing in this industry professionally can do,
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_02: which is try to talk to the people in the shipping industry,
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_02: right?
• 15:32
  But they probably also have investments in and be like,
• 15:35
  what's the deal here?
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_02: What is the bar at which the ships are going to start moving again?
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_02: And it seems like, I mean, this could be wrong.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_02: People make
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_02: mistakes in financial markets.
• 15:48
  But it seems like their belief is that if Trump wants to get
• 15:54
  the straits reopened,
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_02: he can do that.
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_02: And that therefore, prices are going to stay high
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_02: because the straits are not open,
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_02: but they're not going to surge because we are in the taco equilibrium,
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_02: right?
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_02: Now,
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_02: the risk to the world of that equilibrium is that,
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_02: I think we've seen a few different times with Trump in financial markets.
• 16:18
  It's like,
• 16:19
  well,
• 16:20
  if the straits stay closed,
• 16:22
  then the price of oil will go up.
• 16:24
  But if the price of oil goes up,
• 16:26
  then Trump will act to reopen the straits.
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_02: So then the price of oil doesn't go up,
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_02: In which case he doesn't act.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_02: And like you you can have a big problem there.
• 16:35
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 16:35
  There's a there's a there's a there's a breakdown,
• 16:37
  a Wile E.
• 16:38
  Coyote kind of issue.
• 16:40
  And that's what we saw over the weekend where it went from
• 16:43
  complacency to panic
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_02: very,
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_02: very,
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_02: very suddenly.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_02: Because the switch kind of flipped on this might go on for a long time.
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_02: The truth is, like, we just don't know.
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_02: I think the one thing that we do know is that Donald Trump,
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_02: and for all the people in the,
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_02: like,
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_02: hawk community,
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_02: and I'm looking at the free press and,
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_02: Kaviv Gurr has an article,
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_02: this isn't Israel's war,
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_02: it's America's,
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_02: and there's all this kind of stuff coming up.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_02: I think if you're told Netanyahu,
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_02: or if you're told the median Israeli voter,
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_02: an extended war with Iran is going to make oil really expensive,
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_02: they would say like,
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_02: that's a bummer.
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_02: But like in the global history of warfare,
• 17:25
  like gasoline being expensive is not like the pinnacle of human
• 17:30
  suffering.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_02: And like, we sincerely think this is important.
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_02: We are like real ideologues who genuinely want to like
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_02: destroy Iran.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_02: And it's fine.
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_02: But we all know that like Donald Trump is not going to say that, right?
• 17:44
  This is not going to be like FDR doing a fireside chat and
• 17:47
  telling us that there's
• 17:48
  going to be meat rationing and everyone's going to need to eat
• 17:51
  liver three times a
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_02: week because we're saving the world from Hitler.
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_02: The whole premise- RFK Jr.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_02: just did that.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_02: Well, RMK Jr.
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_02: wants people to eat liver because he has freakish ideas about diet.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_02: That's not,
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_02: but like this whole- No,
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_02: but it was a joint- It was about beef prices,
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_02: yes.
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_02: But you know what I mean, right?
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_02: Like there's just,
• 18:13
  there's a world in which you're like somber about the national
• 18:16
  security threat.
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_02: And you're like, there will be a cost.
• 18:20
  And like,
• 18:20
  as part of our shared sacrifice to defeat the Islamic Republic,
• 18:25
  like-
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_02: you know, air travel is going to become untenable, et cetera.
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_02: And like, nobody's going to do that, right?
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_02: Like the national security rationale for this war,
• 18:35
  SPEAKER_02: as much as hawks may want to deny it,
• 18:38
  like their own people regard the national security case for
• 18:42
  this war as like a
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_02: joke,
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_02: right?
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_02: That they can only sell people on if it's free, right?
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_02: If it's a war on the cheap.
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_02: And,
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_02: that's a fundamental political fact that,
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_02: even on like day one or two of the war,
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 19:02
  SPEAKER_02: you had Democrats on television.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_02: They were like, this is costing a billion dollars a day.
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_02: And again,
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_02: if you look at it,
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_02: like a billion dollars a day by the standards of a war,
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_02: it's just like not that much money.
• 19:13
  But it was like a perfectly good attack line because nobody
• 19:16
  gives a shit about
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_02: like the substance of this.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_02: Like, you know, people don't like Iran.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_02: Iran is bad.
• 19:24
  There was a poll recently and it was the only things less
• 19:28
  popular than AI were the
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_02: Democratic Party and Iran.
• 19:32
  SPEAKER_02: But like, nobody wants to sacrifice anything.
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_02: for the sake of this war.
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_02: And Trump knows that.
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_02: You know, you can see, like, he's incredibly gun-shy about this.
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_02: And that's a strategic advantage that the Iranians have, right?
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_02: Like, they're clearly beaten badly in some kind of tactical sense.
• 19:50
  SPEAKER_02: All their shit is exploded, their air defenses don't work, et cetera.
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_02: But, you know, they, like, believe in their cause, right?
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_02: Yes.
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_02: Yes.
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_01: And like Trump does.
• 20:01
  So so so it's interesting because the one place that Trump was
• 20:05
  like a little
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_01: sanguine and willing to sit down.
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, he has no no bedside manner.
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_01: So it wasn't like in war there will be costs.
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_01: The one place where he he was like realistic about this was he was like,
• 20:20
  SPEAKER_01: yeah,
• 20:21
  SPEAKER_01: Americans might die in the US as a result of this war.
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_02: And he said he sort of said that.
• 20:29
  SPEAKER_02: Yes, he did say that.
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_01: OK.
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_01: And.
• 20:34
  As if you're if you're if you're experiencing this from the
• 20:37
  from the Iranian side.
• 20:40
  The idea that you might want to kill some Americans does not
• 20:42
  strike me as crazy at
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_01: this moment,
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 20:45
  SPEAKER_01: Like the the thing with with taco is,
• 20:48
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 20:48
  SPEAKER_01: if you're an allied trading partner with the United States.
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_01: The Trump experience has been unpleasant and embarrassing.
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_01: And you've had to act like he's more,
• 21:01
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_01: even keeled than he is and,
• 21:04
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 21:05
  SPEAKER_01: pretend to reason with him.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_01: And it's like, it's a little bit degrading.
• 21:11
  SPEAKER_01: There's not a whole lot of dignity and pretend,
• 21:13
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_01: like Mark Carney is the only one who's been like,
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_01: no,
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not,
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not fussing with this.
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_01: But like the people in those countries are mostly...
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_01: degrees removed from, from the, from the direct effects.
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_01: And even like the exporters in those countries are like,
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_01: okay,
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_01: this guy again,
• 21:32
  SPEAKER_01: but he's going to taco and whatever.
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_01: I'll just charge a little more.
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe I won't have to change prices at all.
• 21:37
  We'll see if Donald Trump like killed 150 British school
• 21:45
  children or Danish school children.
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it would be the end of NATO.
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_01: There would be probably a world war.
• 21:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 21:55
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I mean, and we would understand why.
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_01: We wouldn't be like those swarthy terrorists and their hot passions.
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_01: Like, they should just get over it.
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_01: Like, if Trump tacos tomorrow...
• 22:10
  SPEAKER_01: A ship might go through and then two and then five and then 10.
• 22:15
  And then one day one of them might explode or like a fucking
• 22:17
  plane might fall out
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_01: of the sky in the United States.
• 22:21
  SPEAKER_01: And quickly we will learn that the Iranians did it,
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_01: either the regime or disaffected faction of the country.
• 22:31
  SPEAKER_01: And we're going to be right back in it.
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_01: Or Trump is going to have to say,
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 22:37
  SPEAKER_01: like he did when,
• 22:37
  SPEAKER_01: when those,
• 22:39
  those soldiers all got like concussions and other brain
• 22:43
  injuries from a nearby
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_01: explosion.
• 22:45
  SPEAKER_01: And he was like, there was no injuries.
• 22:46
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 22:46
  SPEAKER_01: like he,
• 22:47
  SPEAKER_01: he like wrote,
• 22:48
  wrote off all the harm he had caused to them so that he didn't
• 22:51
  have to escalate.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_01: But is that going to be tenable if it's a,
• 22:54
  SPEAKER_01: like a new oil,
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_01: a new energy crisis or like a mass casualty event in Houston or whatever?
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I don't think so.
• 23:02
  SPEAKER_01: I think that,
• 23:04
  SPEAKER_01: then we're right back in it.
• 23:06
  SPEAKER_01: And probably with, you know, like... I mean, maybe, yeah.
• 23:09
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 23:09
  SPEAKER_01: it's just like the...
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_01: I have a very,
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_01: very,
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_01: very hard time seeing through from where we are right now to,
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 23:19
  SPEAKER_01: in an analogous sense,
• 23:20
  SPEAKER_01: where we were on,
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_01: April 12th of last year after he taco'd.
• 23:25
  And everyone was just kind of like,
• 23:26
  thank God,
• 23:27
  like,
• 23:27
  he got sense knocked into him.
• 23:30
  SPEAKER_01: Because...
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 23:32
  people aren't going to forget what he's done there in the same
• 23:35
  way that you can
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_01: just forget about the brief imposition,
• 23:40
  SPEAKER_01: not even really imposition of tariffs in this extortionate way.
• 23:44
  SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
• 23:44
  SPEAKER_01: It's a different thing.
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_01: It's a different affront to humanity.
• 23:49
  SPEAKER_01: And it's...
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_01: Like,
• 23:53
  SPEAKER_01: we have witnessed in the last 10 or by the time you listen to this,
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_01: 11 days,
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_01: the kinds of atrocities that you hear about for decades,
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_01: you know?
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_01: Like,
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_01: we still hear in lore about the Middle East,
• 24:05
  SPEAKER_01: about the Sabra and Shatila massacre or this,
• 24:08
  SPEAKER_01: you know what I mean?
• 24:09
  There's,
• 24:09
  like,
• 24:09
  all these events that,
• 24:10
  like,
• 24:11
  these were big hinge point moments.
• 24:13
  SPEAKER_01: And, like, we're on the other side of one of those now.
• 24:16
  SPEAKER_01: And so the future...
• 24:18
  SPEAKER_01: Like,
• 24:18
  SPEAKER_01: repercussions of it are extremely unpredictable,
• 24:22
  SPEAKER_01: but they're unlikely to be zero,
• 24:24
  SPEAKER_01: I think.
• 24:26
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I mean, you know, but I mean, are you out buying oil futures?
• 24:31
  SPEAKER_02: Are you...
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_02: Are you long barrels?
• 24:33
  SPEAKER_01: No,
• 24:33
  I just wrote a whole thing today about how I don't have either
• 24:37
  the reflexes or the
• 24:38
  SPEAKER_01: muscle memory to do any kind of trading.
• 24:41
  SPEAKER_01: I've never visited the CalShe website.
• 24:43
  SPEAKER_01: I've never been on Polymarket.
• 24:44
  SPEAKER_01: I've never bought a stock.
• 24:47
  SPEAKER_01: Anytime I have savings, I put them into...
• 24:53
  SPEAKER_01: broad-based index funds and I forget about them.
• 24:55
  SPEAKER_01: Like that's my whole investment strategy.
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_01: And throughout the Trump era,
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_01: there have been these moments where I was like,
• 25:00
  SPEAKER_01: man,
• 25:00
  SPEAKER_01: I really wish I knew as a practical matter how to short America.
• 25:06
  SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
• 25:07
  SPEAKER_01: Like,
• 25:08
  SPEAKER_01: or I really wish in a debt limit crisis,
• 25:10
  SPEAKER_01: I knew how to buy a credit default swap on treasuries.
• 25:13
  SPEAKER_01: I just, I don't, I have no idea.
• 25:16
  SPEAKER_01: Wouldn't know what to Google to figure out how to do that.
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_01: But like there are bets that I would make
• 25:23
  SPEAKER_00: You know, like, are Americans going to die?
• 25:26
  SPEAKER_01: And not like enlisted soldiers.
• 25:29
  SPEAKER_01: Sure.
• 25:29
  SPEAKER_01: But like civilians or American civilians going to die.
• 25:32
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, like, I think arguably they already have.
• 25:36
  SPEAKER_01: But I think more will.
• 25:37
  SPEAKER_01: And then I think Trump is going to freak out.
• 25:42
  And I would like if I was a different kind of person,
• 25:45
  I would try to make money on those things.
• 25:49
  SPEAKER_02: Okay,
• 25:49
  SPEAKER_02: but I'm saying,
• 25:49
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 25:50
  SPEAKER_02: you don't even need to,
• 25:51
  SPEAKER_02: like,
• 25:52
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 25:52
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know mechanically how a person would go about buying oil futures.
• 25:58
  SPEAKER_02: But,
• 25:58
  SPEAKER_02: like,
• 25:58
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 25:59
  SPEAKER_02: we can say on the show,
• 26:00
  SPEAKER_02: you can write on your pod,
• 26:03
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 26:04
  SPEAKER_02: a month from now,
• 26:05
  SPEAKER_02: do we think,
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_02: Brent Crude is going to be above 90 or below?
• 26:10
  SPEAKER_02: Well, okay.
• 26:11
  SPEAKER_02: Do you have a strong feeling about that?
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_02: Like, you know, would you give odds?
• 26:16
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, yeah.
• 26:19
  SPEAKER_02: I'm not saying you're wrong about any of this.
• 26:22
  I'm just trying to express some reluctance to think that I can
• 26:28
  outguess the balance
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_02: of considerations that's currently out there in the world because,
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_02: it's quite uncertain.
• 26:39
  If the wisdom of markets is Trump calls up a CBS News reporter
• 26:43
  and says the war is
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_01: complete,
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_01: when you can—
• 26:46
  SPEAKER_01: pick up your phone or turn on the TV and see that that's not true.
• 26:50
  SPEAKER_01: And nevertheless, you're like, oh, he's trying to get out of it.
• 26:53
  SPEAKER_01: Let's bid down the price of oil.
• 26:56
  I don't think that the people making that market are
• 26:59
  necessarily the shrewdest
• 27:02
  SPEAKER_01: assessors of Trump's good faith character.
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_02: So that's what I'm saying.
• 27:07
  When are we going to check back and how expensive do you think
• 27:10
  oil is going to be?
• 27:12
  SPEAKER_01: Oh.
• 27:12
  SPEAKER_02: Like, just between us.
• 27:13
  SPEAKER_01: Like, let's- What was oil a barrel before last Saturday?
• 27:18
  SPEAKER_02: It was like 70.
• 27:19
  SPEAKER_02: 70.
• 27:20
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 27:21
  SPEAKER_02: I think oil- And now it's around 90, I think, as we're recording.
• 27:26
  SPEAKER_01: I think oil will not go back down to 70 until-
• 27:33
  SPEAKER_01: With the caveat that if there's a global depression, it might.
• 27:38
  I don't think oil will go back down to 70 for at least three
• 27:43
  months,
• 27:45
  possibly six.
• 27:47
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_02: OK, but but that's not saying that you think the traders are wrong.
• 27:50
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 27:50
  SPEAKER_02: the traders right now it's at 90,
• 27:53
  SPEAKER_02: right,
• 27:53
  which is like evenly balanced between things might renormalize
• 27:59
  down to 70 or they
• 28:01
  SPEAKER_02: might like escalate to 110.
• 28:04
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 28:04
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it just looks, that just, that just seems reasonable to me.
• 28:08
  SPEAKER_00: They seem to me to be like maybe one tick smarter than,
• 28:13
  than like the total suckers who just like believe like
• 28:16
  everything Trump says,
• 28:17
  SPEAKER_01: it's either art of the deal or whatever.
• 28:22
  In that,
• 28:23
  like,
• 28:24
  like Trump played them by going to Ouija Ali or whatever,
• 28:29
  Ouija Ali.
• 28:30
  SPEAKER_01: the CBS news reporter,
• 28:31
  he played them because he knew that they would like respond to
• 28:36
  the words he said in
• 28:37
  the same way that people in his administration know that chumps
• 28:40
  are going to bet
• 28:41
  SPEAKER_01: on,
• 28:42
  SPEAKER_01: on him in some sense.
• 28:43
  And so they do all these insider trades on the betting market
• 28:47
  sites,
• 28:47
  you know,
• 28:48
  like,
• 28:49
  That's the level of sophistication I'm picking up from this
• 28:55
  whole set of people.
• 28:56
  And it's like that makes Trump the most sophisticated actor of
• 28:59
  all of them.
• 29:00
  SPEAKER_01: And he's trying to jawbone his way into avoiding a freak out.
• 29:04
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I mean, I agree with all that.
• 29:06
  SPEAKER_02: I'm just saying that at the end of the day,
• 29:09
  SPEAKER_02: your forecast and the market forecast seem pretty similar.
• 29:13
  SPEAKER_02: You're just...
• 29:15
  SPEAKER_02: you know, expressing the balance of considerations.
• 29:18
  SPEAKER_02: Like,
• 29:18
  SPEAKER_02: the price of...
• 29:19
  The futures market did not fully normalize in response to
• 29:24
  Trump's statements.
• 29:25
  SPEAKER_02: It just...
• 29:27
  went down from like super duper panic freakout level because
• 29:31
  we're now in equipose.
• 29:33
  SPEAKER_02: And, you know, I would say one thing for Trump, right?
• 29:36
  SPEAKER_02: Because he's done other things, right?
• 29:37
  SPEAKER_02: Like,
• 29:38
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 29:39
  SPEAKER_02: it's irony of ironies,
• 29:41
  SPEAKER_02: but like,
• 29:42
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 29:43
  Trump seems to be really indulgent of Vladimir Putin and
• 29:49
  Russian nationalism
• 29:50
  SPEAKER_02: because he's being blackmailed by a sex tape of him marinating.
• 29:54
  SPEAKER_02: Or being urinated on.
• 29:55
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 29:56
  SPEAKER_02: That's known.
• 29:57
  SPEAKER_02: It's verified.
• 29:58
  SPEAKER_02: You can take it to the bank.
• 30:01
  But the one regard in which Trump was willing to be tough on
• 30:04
  Russia in his second
• 30:06
  SPEAKER_02: term is sanctions on the Russian oil industry.
• 30:10
  because sanctioning the Russian oil industry is good for
• 30:14
  American oil producers.
• 30:16
  SPEAKER_02: You know,
• 30:17
  so it lines up his politics with what Ukraine hawks and the
• 30:22
  Republican Party want
• 30:22
  SPEAKER_02: to do.
• 30:23
  So he's been quite tough on Russian oil while also being soft
• 30:27
  on Russia in other ways.
• 30:29
  SPEAKER_02: As soon as this crisis started to put it so that oil was like,
• 30:34
  SPEAKER_02: beyond,
• 30:36
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 30:36
  like what the American oil industry even wants to the point
• 30:39
  where it's like causing
• 30:40
  SPEAKER_02: huge global economic problems,
• 30:41
  SPEAKER_02: they immediately started flipping switches to de-sanction Russian oil.
• 30:46
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 30:46
  SPEAKER_02: Like and that is a lever, a real lever that Trump has at his disposal.
• 30:51
  And like we know that he's thrilled to pull the like be nicer
• 30:54
  to Russia lever
• 30:56
  SPEAKER_02: whenever it makes any kind of sense.
• 30:57
  So that is like one thing that has happened here and is capping
• 31:01
  this a little bit
• 31:01
  SPEAKER_02: and is bad for the world because Donald Trump is a bad person.
• 31:06
  And because Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are like leading
• 31:09
  the negotiations on
• 31:10
  both of these fronts and continue to have insane opinions about
• 31:17
  the Russian
• 31:17
  SPEAKER_02: government.
• 31:18
  So,
• 31:18
  you know,
• 31:18
  it's all just to say,
• 31:19
  I think we should we should see the risks as balanced.
• 31:24
  SPEAKER_02: So it's a balanced risk environment.
• 31:26
  SPEAKER_01: OK, but like.
• 31:29
  SPEAKER_01: Well, you know, a few days ago, apparently the U.S.
• 31:33
  SPEAKER_01: reached out to Vladimir Zelensky.
• 31:37
  SPEAKER_01: And they were like,
• 31:37
  SPEAKER_01: hey,
• 31:38
  SPEAKER_01: you guys have developed a real military industrial complex and real
• 31:42
  SPEAKER_01: state-of-the-art expertise in drone warfare.
• 31:45
  Can you help us shoot down these Iranian drones that are making
• 31:49
  the strait impassable?
• 31:52
  SPEAKER_01: And Zelensky said, yes, if you're on our side, essentially.
• 31:57
  SPEAKER_03: Mm-hmm.
• 31:58
  SPEAKER_01: And then Trump desanctioned Russian oil.
• 32:01
  SPEAKER_01: And it's like,
• 32:01
  SPEAKER_01: if you actually want the price of oil to go back down,
• 32:07
  SPEAKER_01: you go to Zelensky for the help with the drones,
• 32:10
  SPEAKER_01: not to desanctioning Russian oil,
• 32:13
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 32:14
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 32:14
  if you're actually thinking about how to manipulate geopolitics
• 32:18
  for the purpose of
• 32:19
  SPEAKER_01: making a line go down.
• 32:21
  SPEAKER_02: Maybe.
• 32:22
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, it's hard to say.
• 32:24
  SPEAKER_02: Like, they are just...
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_02: OK, like they're flailing around.
• 32:30
  SPEAKER_02: All that I'm saying throughout all of this is that,
• 32:32
  SPEAKER_02: like,
• 32:33
  it is possible that Trump clearly is not willing to say that
• 32:40
  the fake national
• 32:41
  security threat posed by Iran is more important than keeping
• 32:46
  American gasoline
• 32:47
  SPEAKER_02: prices low.
• 32:49
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 32:50
  SPEAKER_02: And so, like, he's going to try to back down if he needs to.
• 32:55
  And that might work because the Iranians have their own reasons
• 32:59
  to want stuff
• 33:00
  SPEAKER_02: reopened if the United States will stop bombing them.
• 33:04
  SPEAKER_02: And, you know.
• 33:06
  SPEAKER_02: Life goes on.
• 33:07
  The 12 hour lag time or whatever it is between when we record
• 33:09
  this and when it posts,
• 33:11
  just like.
• 33:13
  SPEAKER_01: could,
• 33:13
  SPEAKER_01: could obviate this whole conversation if a,
• 33:15
  SPEAKER_01: if a,
• 33:15
  SPEAKER_01: if a ship is blown out of the water in Hormuz.
• 33:18
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but like, it's troubling.
• 33:21
  SPEAKER_02: What did he, I was reading about the tanker war of 1987 and,
• 33:26
  in which,
• 33:28
  I don't know,
• 33:29
  people took some shots at oil tankers,
• 33:31
  but it turned out to be okay.
• 33:33
  Do you think it would be feasible or legal or even something
• 33:37
  Trump would ever
• 33:38
  consider doing given who he'd have to demand it of for him to
• 33:41
  go to the oil execs?
• 33:43
  SPEAKER_01: Like, thanks for your billion dollars to help me get elected.
• 33:45
  SPEAKER_01: I hope you enjoyed your tax cut.
• 33:47
  SPEAKER_01: I hope you enjoyed the deregulation I've already done.
• 33:50
  SPEAKER_01: But now what you need to do is under the Defense Production Act,
• 33:54
  SPEAKER_01: you need to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve,
• 33:57
  SPEAKER_01: and you need to do it significantly under market prices.
• 34:02
  SPEAKER_01: Like, we'll pay you.
• 34:04
  SPEAKER_01: We're not just going to take your oil.
• 34:06
  But you're not going to get the same amount for it as you would
• 34:08
  get on the global market.
• 34:12
  SPEAKER_01: Do you think that they would help him?
• 34:14
  SPEAKER_01: Do you think they would sue?
• 34:16
  SPEAKER_02: Well, no, they tried to put like accelerated SPR refilling into OBBA.
• 34:26
  And that was one of the smaller things that ended up getting
• 34:29
  stripped out.
• 34:30
  SPEAKER_02: I think it's like an actual question about available funds.
• 34:34
  SPEAKER_02: The Biden administration had issues with this.
• 34:37
  SPEAKER_02: Congress keeps fucking with SPR policy in different ways that...
• 34:43
  SPEAKER_02: Don't make a ton of sense.
• 34:46
  Again,
• 34:46
  I think that if this war were remotely serious,
• 34:49
  right,
• 34:50
  that like if if.
• 34:52
  You mean in the in the in the in the sense that Trump had
• 34:55
  genuine strategic
• 34:56
  SPEAKER_01: objective and not just whatever it is.
• 34:58
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 34:59
  SPEAKER_02: Trump and like the public and the war hawks,
• 35:01
  SPEAKER_02: the whole just kind of like a rump neocon organization.
• 35:05
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 35:06
  SPEAKER_02: If like.
• 35:07
  If anyone believed that like the United States of America is
• 35:12
  embroiled in a serious
• 35:13
  SPEAKER_02: strategic battle with the Islamic Republic of Iran,
• 35:17
  it's so easy to finesse these various issues along the lines
• 35:22
  you are suggesting,
• 35:23
  SPEAKER_02: right?
• 35:24
  SPEAKER_02: Not to keep oil at like 70,
• 35:27
  SPEAKER_02: $65 a barrel,
• 35:27
  SPEAKER_02: but to keep it at 90 and to be like,
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_02: we are going to,
• 35:32
  SPEAKER_02: uh,
• 35:33
  SPEAKER_02: So American domestic producers, so, you know, price of oil goes up.
• 35:38
  SPEAKER_02: because of a supply blockage elsewhere.
• 35:40
  SPEAKER_02: But the United States could pump more oil.
• 35:43
  But in order to pump more oil,
• 35:44
  you have to put like capital investments into the wells.
• 35:48
  And people don't want to do that because you make an investment
• 35:51
  that pays off with
• 35:52
  SPEAKER_02: oil at 100,
• 35:52
  SPEAKER_02: but where you go bust if oil's at 80.
• 35:55
  SPEAKER_02: You know,
• 35:56
  you don't want to do something that's going to take months or
• 35:58
  years to pay off when
• 36:00
  SPEAKER_02: the straits might be reopened tomorrow.
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_02: But this is like a basic insurance problem, right?
• 36:04
  SPEAKER_02: Like if this was a World War II type situation,
• 36:08
  SPEAKER_02: Like you would just say,
• 36:10
  SPEAKER_02: look,
• 36:10
  SPEAKER_02: like we are going,
• 36:12
  SPEAKER_02: you are going to sell us oil at a discount,
• 36:15
  SPEAKER_02: but in exchange,
• 36:16
  SPEAKER_02: we will agree to buy it at a premium if prices crash in the future.
• 36:21
  SPEAKER_02: And like, there's no problem really with that.
• 36:23
  SPEAKER_02: Like America is just like a giant fucking country compared to Iran.
• 36:28
  Like we could beat them in a war that Americans are willing to
• 36:31
  sacrifice over.
• 36:32
  SPEAKER_02: But like, we're just not, right?
• 36:33
  SPEAKER_02: Like we are killing schoolgirls by mistake, right?
• 36:37
  SPEAKER_02: And,
• 36:38
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 36:39
  SPEAKER_02: swearing that,
• 36:41
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 36:41
  gas won't go over $4 a gallon because this whole thing is like
• 36:46
  bullshit on some
• 36:47
  SPEAKER_02: level.
• 36:48
  SPEAKER_02: And,
• 36:49
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 36:50
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 36:50
  SPEAKER_02: I'm not always one to defer to the wisdom of the voters and stuff,
• 36:54
  SPEAKER_02: but like you can just see that,
• 36:55
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 36:56
  SPEAKER_02: like the public is happy to tolerate this.
• 37:00
  SPEAKER_02: a war with Iran but has no interest in it.
• 37:02
  SPEAKER_01: But I think that the public is,
• 37:05
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 37:06
  SPEAKER_01: unsophisticated like the oil traders in that,
• 37:08
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 37:09
  they kind of aren't acting like they're worried that oil is
• 37:13
  going to go to $4 a
• 37:14
  SPEAKER_01: gallon.
• 37:16
  SPEAKER_01: Like,
• 37:17
  SPEAKER_01: are there,
• 37:17
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 37:18
  we have a gas station in our neighborhood because I don't live
• 37:20
  in the fancy part of
• 37:21
  SPEAKER_01: D.C.
• 37:21
  SPEAKER_01: like you do.
• 37:23
  SPEAKER_01: But there's no lines.
• 37:25
  Like,
• 37:26
  nobody's like,
• 37:26
  shit,
• 37:26
  I better fill up today because tomorrow it's going to be worse.
• 37:30
  I think that they think that nothing Trump does ever amounts to
• 37:34
  anything.
• 37:34
  And so this all get worked out and things do not go off the
• 37:38
  rails really in the world anymore.
• 37:39
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't know.
• 37:41
  SPEAKER_01: I don't have that feeling right now.
• 37:42
  SPEAKER_01: I feel like much closer to like,
• 37:47
  SPEAKER_01: watching the Grand Princess or whatever that ship was in January of 2020,
• 37:53
  SPEAKER_01: thinking,
• 37:54
  SPEAKER_01: oh,
• 37:54
  SPEAKER_01: it is coming here,
• 37:55
  SPEAKER_01: isn't it?
• 37:57
  SPEAKER_01: Then I am like,
• 37:58
  SPEAKER_01: okay,
• 38:00
  he's gonna put Humpty Dumpty back together again as quickly as
• 38:03
  possible because
• 38:04
  he's scared of the consequences of tripping off a major energy
• 38:08
  crisis around the
• 38:09
  SPEAKER_01: world.
• 38:11
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, and, uh, yeah, I don't, I don't think he can.
• 38:16
  SPEAKER_01: I think he finally did it.
• 38:17
  SPEAKER_02: All right.
• 38:18
  SPEAKER_02: Well, let's, let's take a break.
• 38:20
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 38:20
  SPEAKER_02: Let's take a break.
• 38:21
  SPEAKER_02: Talk, talk around the back, uh, about some other stuff.
• 38:25
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 38:25
  SPEAKER_01: I actually,
• 38:26
  SPEAKER_01: I,
• 38:26
  SPEAKER_01: I feel like this is a,
• 38:27
  SPEAKER_01: this,
• 38:27
  SPEAKER_01: what we're about to talk about with Jared Polis,
• 38:29
  SPEAKER_01: um,
• 38:30
  SPEAKER_01: raises like a good opportunity for,
• 38:32
  SPEAKER_01: for y'all in the,
• 38:33
  SPEAKER_01: um,
• 38:34
  SPEAKER_01: popularist slash abundance faction of liberal politics.
• 38:38
  SPEAKER_01: So, um,
• 38:38
  SPEAKER_02: I would do it if not for this bullshit.
• 38:41
  SPEAKER_02: And so now I just won't.
• 38:42
  SPEAKER_01: Wait.
• 38:42
  SPEAKER_02: Let's take a break.
• 38:44
  SPEAKER_02: Let's take a break.
• 38:46
  SPEAKER_01: Hear us argue on the other side.
• 38:47
  SPEAKER_01: If you want to hear that part of the conversation,
• 38:49
  SPEAKER_01: go to politics.fm and upgrade your subscription.