Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Harvest Headwinds
Transcript
- 0:10SPEAKER_00: Get me out of here.
- 0:12SPEAKER_00: It's been a week, everybody.
- 0:14SPEAKER_00: Hope yours has gone well.
- 0:17SPEAKER_00: There have been a number of frustrations.
- 0:19SPEAKER_00: Not how we wanted to end the week for corn or soybeans or cattle, really, for that matter.
- 0:25SPEAKER_00: You know what?
- 0:26SPEAKER_00: We'll we'll talk out the week, and then I'll cut you loose for the weekend.
- 0:41SPEAKER_00: From behind the big blue, bodacious microphone of Agbull, your pal Davis Michelson here.
- 0:47SPEAKER_00: Glad it's Friday.
- 0:48SPEAKER_00: Glad that you are here with me as well.
- 0:51SPEAKER_00: A couple of news stories that I want to get to.
- 0:53SPEAKER_00: We'll update you on some fresh crop estimates out from a couple of the big players, and we'll we'll talk a little bit of weather.
- 1:01SPEAKER_00: Coming up, I've got uh I don't quite know what to make of this, but it piqued my interest as I was running down my news rabbit trail for the day.
- 1:09SPEAKER_00: There's a new documentary coming out about the controversy with wolves.
- 1:13SPEAKER_00: It sort of puts farmers, ranchers, and even pet owners at odds with uh with conservationists, and it's an interesting, interesting sort of dichotomy there between the two.
- 1:24SPEAKER_00: How do the two come together?
- 1:25SPEAKER_00: A new documentary coming out tonight that I'll I'll turn you on to.
- 1:29SPEAKER_00: I've got a couple of quotes from the directors and a little description so that you can look for that if you're looking for something to watch this weekend.
- 1:35SPEAKER_00: We'll get to that later.
- 1:38SPEAKER_00: First of all, may I direct you to Agbull.com as always, where you can take your marketing by the horns with Agbull Intel, Agbull.com.
- 1:47SPEAKER_00: Visit Agbull.com today.
- 1:51SPEAKER_00: Big water problems back home in uh Grundy County, Iowa, my own little backyard hometown.
- 1:58SPEAKER_00: I saw some videos on Facebook.
- 2:00SPEAKER_00: I talked to some friends.
- 2:01SPEAKER_00: Deep water.
- 2:03SPEAKER_00: I don't I I guess any any measure of excessive water could be called flooding.
- 2:09SPEAKER_00: Basements full, sump pumps overwhelmed, this sort of thing.
- 2:13SPEAKER_00: And talking to people back home in Grundy County, Iowa, it sounds like it's going to be a while before it's dry enough to get out there and harvest.
- 2:22SPEAKER_00: And I'm just sort of curious if at some point the trade doesn't get creeped out by that, and we begin to see that reflected in the markets.
- 2:31SPEAKER_00: Didn't care for the close in in the corns today at all, but I suppose with harvest here it it wasn't to be unexpected.
- 2:40SPEAKER_00: May have been expected, I guess, is a better better way to say that.
- 2:45SPEAKER_00: And it does look like dry weather ahead for the gut slot at least of the corn belt.
- 2:52SPEAKER_00: Here's something.
- 3:09SPEAKER_00: I imagine uh there are other spots who have already seen that that's sort of similar temperature setup here.
- 3:15SPEAKER_00: We got some fresh crop estimates today, as I said.
- 3:18SPEAKER_00: Let's get to those.
- 3:19SPEAKER_00: Stonex now anticipates a national average corn yield of 182.1, 182.1 bushels per acre.
- 3:26SPEAKER_00: They put soybeans at 54.1 bushels per acre.
- 3:31SPEAKER_00: And I wonder if that didn't get into the market.
- 3:35SPEAKER_00: Here's the thing SP Global also dropped some numbers.
- 3:38SPEAKER_00: They put corn sub 180 at 178.8 bushels per acre, with soybeans at 52.5 bushels per acre.
- 3:48SPEAKER_00: And when I say, does the trade get creeped out at some point by the excessive moisture out in the Midwest and elsewhere, we would like to we'd like to get some some confirmation off of some yield monitors and just start to get an idea.
- 4:03SPEAKER_00: I mean, even if we we can't use that to make a national average number, we can at least look at trends and discover what farmers are noticing as they're out there in the fields harvesting their corn and soybean crops.
- 4:16SPEAKER_00: It it'd be great to have those, but again, just too wet to get out there.
- 4:21SPEAKER_00: So we're we're gonna have to continue to wait.
- 4:23SPEAKER_00: And so what we've got to go on are numbers such as these.
- 4:27SPEAKER_00: Once again, Stonex put it at 182.1.
- 4:29SPEAKER_00: SP Global put corn at 178.8.
- 4:33SPEAKER_00: Beaners, Stonex put them at 54.1 bushels per acre, and uh SP Global at 52.5 bushels per acre.
- 4:43SPEAKER_00: Let's get to the tail of the ticker.
- 4:45SPEAKER_00: Corn and soybeans were slightly lower at the start of the day session.
- 4:49SPEAKER_00: Winter wheat futures were holding just below unchanged.
- 4:53SPEAKER_00: Cattle futures skidd sharply lower right out of the chute.
- 4:57SPEAKER_00: Lean hogs started on the good foot, posting decent gains early.
- 5:01SPEAKER_00: Rounding into the lunch hour, corn and soybeans continued a few cents lower, while Chicago wheat held tight to unchanged and KC wheat dipped a few cents more aggressively.
- 5:13SPEAKER_00: Cattle futures were under moderate selling pressure with feeders leading the way downward.
- 5:17SPEAKER_00: And lean hogs, meanwhile, were headed decidedly to the upside.
- 5:22SPEAKER_00: Let me check my settlements here.
- 5:24SPEAKER_00: I've got December corn.
- 5:26SPEAKER_00: This I don't like.
- 5:27SPEAKER_00: I don't care for this one bit.
- 5:28SPEAKER_00: 497 and three quarters.
- 5:30SPEAKER_00: We lost the five handle today.
- 5:32SPEAKER_00: Uh four and one half cents lower on the day.
- 5:35SPEAKER_00: November soybeans, five and three quarters lower today, twelve seventy-eight and a quarter at settlement.
- 5:41SPEAKER_00: Uh soybean meal was lower, but oil was higher.
- 5:44SPEAKER_00: Soybean oil was higher.
- 5:46SPEAKER_00: The winter wheats, okay, I've got them in green here on the screen.
- 5:49SPEAKER_00: Up a quarter cent.
- 5:50SPEAKER_00: Yes, that is true of the December Chicago wheat.
- 5:54SPEAKER_00: Up one quarter of one cent at six eighty-three, even.
- 5:57SPEAKER_00: Other than that, we're lower or unchanged.
- 6:00SPEAKER_00: I guess the May and July Chicago's are unchanged.
- 6:04SPEAKER_00: The March is off one quarter of a cent.
- 6:07SPEAKER_00: Look out to the KC and your December contract down two and a quarter, 735 and a quarter.
- 6:13SPEAKER_00: Further out, we're down three cents.
- 6:15SPEAKER_00: There's three and a quarter out to the July down two cents even on the KC wheat.
- 6:21SPEAKER_00: Flipping over to the livestock's pressure on cattle today.
- 6:27SPEAKER_00: I've got 520 lower in the November feeder cattle, 331.15.
- 6:32SPEAKER_00: The October contract off$4.25 at$334.62 and one half.
- 6:38SPEAKER_00: Over to the fat cattle,$1.70 lower in the December contract at$2.21.47 and 1.5.
- 6:45SPEAKER_00: The October contract down$45 at$218.85.
- 6:49SPEAKER_00: And the Lean Hogs.
- 6:51SPEAKER_00: Way to go.
- 6:52SPEAKER_00: Lean hogs.
- 6:53SPEAKER_00: December up a buck 20, 70 and 12 and one half.
- 6:57SPEAKER_00: The October contract 37 and one half cents higher.
- 7:00SPEAKER_00: 77.87 and 12.
- 7:03SPEAKER_00: A quick moment to thank our sponsors, plus 500.
- 7:06SPEAKER_00: As you know, if you've if you've watched before here on AgSquawk, we all use Plus 4 software from T uh T4 software from Plus 500.
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- 7:28SPEAKER_00: It just feels like such a Friday right now.
- 7:31SPEAKER_00: It absolutely does.
- 7:34SPEAKER_00: Just give me a minute.
- 7:36SPEAKER_00: Just give me a minute.
- 7:40SPEAKER_00: All right, moving on.
- 7:42SPEAKER_00: I needed that.
- 7:43SPEAKER_00: Just a little Friday break.
- 7:44SPEAKER_00: Friday break.
- 7:45SPEAKER_00: The fellows will be back with a little more music for us.
- 7:47SPEAKER_00: Let's get into this from Farm Bureau.
- 7:50SPEAKER_00: To illustrate the direct farm level impact, Farm Bureau modeled fuel costs across several representative row crop and specialty crop farms.
- 8:01SPEAKER_00: For each crop, this from a press release, the model combines average acres per farm from the 2022 Census of Ag with crop-specific diesel use estimates drawn from university extension budgets and production studies.
- 8:14SPEAKER_00: That estimated seasonal fuel use is then multiplied by the change in the U.S.
- 8:19SPEAKER_00: farm diesel price, which incidentally increased from$3.1 per gallon in September 25 to$5.61 per gallon in September 2026.
- 8:32SPEAKER_00: That's a gain of$2.60 per gallon, y'all.
- 8:37SPEAKER_00: This analysis uses the Illinois farm diesel price reported by USDA.
- 8:41SPEAKER_00: Regional differences in fuel prices may result in higher costs for producers in other parts of the country.
- 8:48SPEAKER_00: Per Farm Bureau's analysis, the average corn farm covers 279 acres, uses an estimated 3.07 gallons of diesel per acre.
- 8:59SPEAKER_00: That's for all harvest-related activities, not just combines, resulting in 857 gallons of diesel used over the fall harvest period.
- 9:08SPEAKER_00: At the$2.60 per gallon price increase, that adds roughly$2,227 to the farm diesel's bill.
- 9:18SPEAKER_00: A quick quote from AFBF President Zippy Duval.
- 9:22SPEAKER_00: He said, quote, it seems no matter where we turn, farmers' pocketbooks are taking a hit.
- 9:27SPEAKER_00: We've faced years of low commodity prices and high supply costs.
- 9:31SPEAKER_00: Now the cost of diesel fuel is creating even more uncertainty, right as harvest is underway.
- 9:37SPEAKER_00: Duval continued, quote, the administration and Congress must recognize the importance of bringing down expenses for America's farmers and ranchers.
- 9:46SPEAKER_00: Passing a new modernized farm bill and delivering economic assistance to farm country is extremely important, close, quote, that from American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duval.
- 9:58SPEAKER_00: Now, if you caught my show just the other day, I was talking about fertilizer.
- 10:03SPEAKER_00: I had fuels as well, but this article from AFBF wraps it up pretty well.
- 10:09SPEAKER_00: And I just wanted to flash this chart back at you just in case you missed it.
- 10:13SPEAKER_00: So on the very left here, I've got uh the fertilizer price index, our basket of fertilizer prices.
- 10:19SPEAKER_00: In the blue is 2025.
- 10:22SPEAKER_00: In the orange is this year.
- 10:24SPEAKER_00: You can see this year's prices are uh roughly 10%, I think is how the math worked out, higher than last year.
- 10:31SPEAKER_00: Expected new crop revenue over to the right here.
- 10:34SPEAKER_00: Once again, in the blue, 2025.
- 10:37SPEAKER_00: Here in the orange, we've got uh 2026's prices as of as of this month, in fact.
- 10:43SPEAKER_00: And new crop revenue did increase by percentage more than our fertilizer price index.
- 10:50SPEAKER_00: However, fertilizer still at a premium to one acre of expected new crop revenue.
- 10:56SPEAKER_00: We would like to see new crop revenue at least in line with our fertilizer price index.
- 11:03SPEAKER_00: Ideally, we would like to see new crop revenue above the value that our fertilizer price index rests at.
- 11:11SPEAKER_00: And unfortunately, that is not the case.
- 11:13SPEAKER_00: We are upside down between corn and fertilizer prices, and fuel is just adding adding fuel to that fire, you might say.
- 11:23SPEAKER_00: Let's get to some international news.
- 11:26SPEAKER_00: As the Canada U.S.
- 11:27SPEAKER_00: tariff war continues for targeted industry sectors, trade negotiators on both sides of the border have decided to play the waiting game for now.
- 11:36SPEAKER_00: U.S.
- 11:37SPEAKER_00: trade rep Jameson Greer stated last week that there is no hurry to get back to the table.
- 11:44SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, Prime Minister Mark Carney at an event in Vancouver last week said that Canada is ready to return to the table when the U.S.
- 11:53SPEAKER_00: side is ready to negotiate in good faith, responding to a reporter's question about President Trump's comment that the ongoing trade dispute could soon force a Canadian surrender and an apology from its leaders.
- 12:06SPEAKER_00: Carney brushed the comment aside.
- 12:08SPEAKER_00: Comments from President Trump are speaking of fuel to the fire.
- 12:13SPEAKER_00: It's just it seems like there are so many things that he says maybe in passing, maybe just sort of a throwaway comment in his mind, just turns out to be another log on the fire in the trade dispute with Canada.
- 12:25SPEAKER_00: With Canada, of all people.
- 12:27SPEAKER_00: Maybe at some point in the next couple of weeks here we'll get we'll get Sean Haney back on to find out uh the view from the north, the Alberta Breeze himself.
- 12:37SPEAKER_00: Moving on.
- 12:38SPEAKER_00: Following an announcement that beef and pork were included in the list of goods qualifying for better trade treatment as a result of ongoing negotiations with China, the Meat Institute had this to say.
- 12:50SPEAKER_00: The Chinese market, they say, is especially important for the beef supply chain.
- 12:55SPEAKER_00: China is a key market for U.S.
- 12:57SPEAKER_00: beef variety meats and offal products that find little consumer demand in the United States and strong prices in China.
- 13:06SPEAKER_00: These U.S.
- 13:07SPEAKER_00: beef exports to China contribute to more stable beef prices for American consumers.
- 13:12SPEAKER_00: And here's a big one, and encourages cattle producers in the U.S.
- 13:16SPEAKER_00: to rebuild the herd.
- 13:18SPEAKER_00: I'll be talking with the cattlemen probably next week.
- 13:21SPEAKER_00: We're working on some scheduling stuff, but uh I want to dig into herd rebuilding, the market setup, and what it looks like for you know large and small producers all across the value chain there for for the beef market.
- 13:36SPEAKER_00: And uh good to see pork involved in this here with the uh with the Chinese as well.
- 13:40SPEAKER_00: But we'll talk, we'll talk some beef next week.
- 13:43SPEAKER_00: And I mentioned that documentary.
- 13:45SPEAKER_00: If you're looking for something to watch here, and I got this from a press release, and I wish they they would have been a little bit more specific on where to find it, but I I think I've solved it.
- 13:53SPEAKER_00: Here we go.
- 13:54SPEAKER_00: Hunters for Hunters will release a new documentary titled Minnesota Fed to the Wolves on Friday, October 2nd.
- 14:03SPEAKER_00: That's today at 8 o'clock PM Central Time.
- 14:07SPEAKER_00: It examines the human impact of Minnesota's wolf population and the state and federal policies governing wolf management.
- 14:14SPEAKER_00: This is another thing that we could talk with with cattle producers about, by the way, and uh and we did.
- 14:19SPEAKER_00: Warren Simmons from the South Dakota Cattlemans had uh had some strong opinions about this last week.
- 14:25SPEAKER_00: The documentary examines livestock and pet depredation, declining deer populations in some areas, the effects on rural livelihoods, private property rights, wolf management, and the complicated relationship between state and federal wildlife policy.
- 14:41SPEAKER_00: Under current federal protections, Minnesota property owners cannot, cannot kill a wolf simply to protect livestock or pets.
- 14:51SPEAKER_00: Hunters for Hunters believes that reality raises fundamental questions about the rights of property owners, the responsibilities of government, and who ultimately bears the consequences of wildlife management decisions.
- 15:05SPEAKER_00: Once again, the program drops tonight at 8 Central.
- 15:08SPEAKER_00: There are trailers and such.
- 15:11SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna Google it.
- 15:12SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
- 15:13SPEAKER_00: Like I said, it's it's a fascinating topic and something that uh that may be interesting to you if you're looking for something to watch this weekend.
- 15:21SPEAKER_00: I'm just gonna Google it.
- 15:22SPEAKER_00: Maybe it pops up on YouTube.
- 15:23SPEAKER_00: I'm not sure.
- 15:24SPEAKER_00: The press release said uh it will be released publicly online, is what it said.
- 15:29SPEAKER_00: So hop on your Google Maker there if you got a minute and see uh see if you can drum that one up.
- 15:35SPEAKER_00: That's about all I've got for news.
- 15:37SPEAKER_00: I'm about ready for it to be Friday.
- 15:39SPEAKER_00: Maybe I did I mention that?
- 15:40SPEAKER_00: Did I make that clear?
- 15:42SPEAKER_00: Is anybody getting that sense right now?
- 15:45SPEAKER_00: Let's go to the weather.
- 15:46SPEAKER_00: It's uh it cleared off here in KC.
- 15:49SPEAKER_00: We were somewhere in the 50s this morning when I got up.
- 15:52SPEAKER_00: You know, we lost a tree in the backyard.
- 15:54SPEAKER_00: There was an old rotten tree, and I've been uh thinking, you know, I gotta get somebody out here to cut that sucker down because it's is humongous.
- 16:02SPEAKER_00: And it fell.
- 16:03SPEAKER_00: She came down at some point in the evening last night.
- 16:07SPEAKER_00: It's laying in the yard right now, so that's pretty cool.
- 16:09SPEAKER_00: But I didn't even think it was windy.
- 16:11SPEAKER_00: It was raining, rained very hard the last couple days here in Kansas City, but it's cleared off.
- 16:15SPEAKER_00: Beautiful day.
- 16:17SPEAKER_00: I'm about to go outside and get a little sunshine on my face.
- 16:20SPEAKER_00: The National Weather Service is calling for a slow moving front to be the focus area for heavy to excessive rainfall and a threat for flash and urban flooding across the northern Gulf Coast and southeastern United States through the weekend.
- 16:34SPEAKER_00: Yeah, you can see down there, right across the Gulf Coast there.
- 16:37SPEAKER_00: I've uh I've done some vacationing down on the Gulf Coast of Alabama.
- 16:40SPEAKER_00: The redneck Riviera.
- 16:42SPEAKER_00: Absolutely love it.
- 16:44SPEAKER_00: Anyway, abnormally hot, potentially record-breaking temperatures will impact Southern California, stretch northward toward the Bay Area and Central Valley into next week.
- 16:54SPEAKER_00: Clearing out some of that red.
- 16:56SPEAKER_00: Um still a little toasty, looks like, for my friends over in Nashville.
- 17:02SPEAKER_00: But uh hopefully some of that heat will continue to clear out for us.
- 17:06SPEAKER_00: You know, if that red patch over California decides it wants to move east, we could see another warm-up, but uh, I'm not sure that's gonna be the case.
- 17:14SPEAKER_00: Excuse me, I had to mute myself there for a second.
- 17:17SPEAKER_00: Anywho, I hope you have a great weekend.
- 17:19SPEAKER_00: It does look like it's gonna dry off through the Midwest.
- 17:21SPEAKER_00: Um, Solberg was talking about maybe October 12.
- 17:24SPEAKER_00: He talked about the 11 to 15 day forecast, had some signs that we might get some rain.
- 17:29SPEAKER_00: So hopefully we can get get a little dry out in areas that need it for some harvest activity because it feels like the kind of year where when you get the opportunity, you know, best get after it.
- 17:42SPEAKER_00: The trouble is it's so darn soggy, you really have a have a hard time taking advantage of the windows when you get them.
- 17:50SPEAKER_00: It's tough out there.
- 17:51SPEAKER_00: I know it is.
- 17:52SPEAKER_00: I had a good conversation with Krista Swanson, the chief economist from National Corn Growers Association yesterday.
- 17:58SPEAKER_00: I might urge you to check that one out.
- 18:00SPEAKER_00: It was a good one.
- 18:02SPEAKER_00: Um, and she and I confronted some of those.
- 18:05SPEAKER_00: She had some data, and it's it's not like you know, data is gonna help help us really with an immediate solution, but it but at least we've we can get our hands around what's going on.
- 18:18SPEAKER_00: Same deal with with my fertilizer stuff.
- 18:20SPEAKER_00: I believe that was Wednesday.
- 18:22SPEAKER_00: Go back and check that one out.
- 18:24SPEAKER_00: And there again, yeah, the the pain is evident.
- 18:27SPEAKER_00: I had I had it all in charts, and clearly the pain is is evident and it's real, but part of finding a solution means you've got to face the difficulty head on.
- 18:39SPEAKER_00: All right, let's get to some items of mild interest from this day, October 2nd in history in 1897.
- 18:47SPEAKER_00: The birthday of Bud Abbott, who's on first?
- 18:51SPEAKER_00: Sometimes his wife even comes and picks it up.
- 18:53SPEAKER_00: Whose wife?
- 18:54SPEAKER_00: That's right.
- 18:55SPEAKER_00: Bud Abbott was born this day in 1897.
- 18:58SPEAKER_00: 1950, good grief, the peanuts comic strip by Charles Schultz, debuted.
- 19:04SPEAKER_00: And in 1950, it's the birthday of Mike Rutherford, English guitar player and songwriter.
- 19:12SPEAKER_00: Now, if you don't know, he was with Genesis, uh, but then in 1985 released an album with his band, Mike and the Mechanics.
- 19:19SPEAKER_00: I thought it was a great album.
- 19:21SPEAKER_00: There was some some really good, really good songs on there, and it just and maybe it was just me that summer that was one of those that that just was in the walkman for the entire summer.
- 19:32SPEAKER_00: I loved every second of that album.
- 19:33SPEAKER_00: It might be worth checking out if you're looking for something to listen to, Mike and the Mechanics.
- 19:37SPEAKER_00: Happy birthday, Mike Rutherford.
- 19:41SPEAKER_00: I think it's the weekend now.
- 19:43SPEAKER_00: I think it's the weekend now.
- 19:45SPEAKER_00: Before I let you go, let me mention trade the news.
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- 19:55SPEAKER_00: We use trade the news.
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- 20:29SPEAKER_00: A big week next week.
- 20:30SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna start off talking markets uh with uh Randy Martinson.
- 20:34SPEAKER_00: I've got a uh a film director on Tuesday.
- 20:39SPEAKER_00: We're gonna talk crop insurance on Wednesday.
- 20:41SPEAKER_00: I'm trying to work in a cattle guy for later on in the week.
- 20:46SPEAKER_00: Um, definitely come back next week.
- 20:47SPEAKER_00: It's gonna be a great week of guests and conversations here on Ag Squawk.
- 20:51SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell will get you set up bright and early Monday morning.
- 20:55SPEAKER_00: And as I said, Randy Martinson will be my guest on Ag Squawk in the afternoon on Monday.
- 21:01SPEAKER_00: I appreciate you being here.
- 21:02SPEAKER_00: Be safe, everybody.
- 21:03SPEAKER_00: Hang in there.
- 21:04SPEAKER_00: We love you.
- 21:05SPEAKER_00: Ag Squawk.