Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk AM 10/22/2026 with Jed Sidwell | The Retail Gap in Anhydrous

Transcript

AG Squawk AM 10/22/2026 with Jed Sidwell | The Retail Gap in Anhydrous · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning and welcome to Ag Squawk AM.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell here, live from Juliet, Illinois.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: Today on this fine Thursday morning, we're going to be talking about anhydrous ammonia, some things about pork cutout value, and ag isn't the only industry facing problems due to high fuel costs.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get to all of that and more here in a bit.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: Live cattle were up just shy of a buck at 231.13.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: Feeder cattle were up two and a half at 348.83.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: Lean hogs, however, were down quite a bit.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: They were down$1.43 at$65.73.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: Before we quote the grain markets, like to shout out our sponsor, plus$500.
• 1:01
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• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: And as I look here live, uh December corn is up just a couple ticks overnight at$4.65, even.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: Same with soybeans up just a hair at$12.47 and a half.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: Wheat's down two ticks.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: The December contract of the Chicago variety is at 627 and three quarters.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: The weather discussion is going to be quite similar to some of the things that we've been talking about here recently.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to have dry weather east of the Rockies into tomorrow and through the weekend for most big areas out there, which will keep harvest moving.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_00: We are likely to see record highs with that are 15 to 20 degrees higher above normal in the northern plains and cornbelt through Saturday with no major cold pattern in sight.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_00: Now this next chart here is anhydrous ammonia, the Corn Belt Anhydris, retail versus wholesale.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, the retail is on the top side, wholesale, the NOLA is on the bottom.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: And that margin in between there is quite large.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: This is what Zachary Davis had to say about it in our morning newsletter.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: The Corn Belt Retail Anhydris printed at$12.20 or$9.27.50 per short ton last Friday, up$35 on the week and 12% above a year ago, while NOLA ammonia barges sat at$4.96 even for a third straight week, 8% below Octo below last October, and 35% below that seven seven hundred and fifty and fifty cents May high.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: That leaves a 300 or a$431.50 margin between the two.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: That is a huge gap.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: That's that shaded blue area there.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: And yeah, the retail price keeps going up, but the the wholesale, what it's actually worth, keeps on going down, and the disconnect there is pretty huge.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: Hopefully we see that start to close up just a little bit because anhydras is going to start to come on people's minds as soon as we get all the crop out of the field.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: Livestock market discussion for today.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_00: I thought this was pretty prevalent to bring on.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: That's the ham primal cutout value there, just tanking, heading down all the way to$61.43 as of October 21st yesterday.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: And man, this lean hog market has been just absolute on the downside.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: I heard a while back that the only thing on the pork carcass that is worth a decent amount on the cutout value right now are the pork bellies and everything else as kind of a wash for those hog packers.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: And it's interesting, we don't often talk about the hog markets here a lot at Ag Bull because we're pretty grain and cattle focused.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_00: But we have to look towards the other aggs.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, the only thing that hogs have going for them right now is that their input costs have gotten a lot cheaper in terms of feed.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: Corn and soybeans are a lot more affordable than they once were.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: But they were riding this wave of supply pressure from disease risk.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: Now that that supply pressure is gone, they almost have so much supply it's hard to they don't have the demand to match it.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_00: Here's what we have in terms of breaking news, and I thought most farmers would find this interesting.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: American Airlines forecasts bigger loss in 2026 on this fuel spike that we're having, and they plan to slow the growth for next year.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: Wow.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: Sounds like agriculture right now.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: American Airlines forecasts deeper loss this year despite reporting record revenue.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: It's the fourth major U.S.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: carrier to cut its 2026 forecast this month because of this spike in fuel costs.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: CEO Robert Isom has been under pressure due to boost profits at the carrier, which has dramatically tailored profitability compared to rivals Delta and United.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: I'm a big fan of American.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: I fly them quite often, but they're struggling right now.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: I heard for once a few airlines for the first time ever that fuel costs are now outweighing their human resource costs, which is normally the most ex expensive thing associated with an airline.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: But right now, yeah, the most expensive thing for everyone is fuel.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: Here's what we have on the economic calendar for today.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: The export sales come out as I'm speaking here, or after I get done speaking here at 7 30 a.m.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: Same as the jobless claims.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: Natural gas storage change comes out at 9 30, and the red meat production comes out after the close at 2 p.m.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: Central.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: Well, thank you for watching and thank you for listening to Ag Squawk in the morning.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: It's always a pleasure talking to every single one.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: I encourage everyone, Weismeyer.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: If you love the Weissmeyer show, if you love getting the Weesmeier's perspective or the WeSmeyer news updates on our website, those are now going to be Weissmeier's brand, and he is going to have his own division where if you want to continue to get those updates, you're gonna have to go to our website and subscribe to Weissmeyer's content.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: I encourage it.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_00: There is no one with more tenure in the ag news business than Jim Wiesmeyer.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, there is no one else like him out there.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: And I if you like those news updates, I encourage you to go to our website and look at those there.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: Well, thank you for watching this morning.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: Make sure and catch Davis Michelson's show in the afternoon.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: We live stream both shows at 8 15 a.m.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: and 8 15 p.m.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: And make sure to catch those there.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: Well, thank you for watching and thank you for listening.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Jed Sidwell with Ag Bull Media.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: We're a financial channel that absolutely loves agriculture.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: Have a great day.