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SPECIAL COVERAGE: Super Tuesday Reaction · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:00
Speaker 1: As part of our special coverage on this Super Tuesday,
0:02
Speaker 1: we turned out of Jim Gilmore, the former chair of
0:04
Speaker 1: the Republican National Committee, former governor of Virginia. It's good
0:08
Speaker 1: to see you, sir, Welcome back to Bloomberg. You were
0:11
Speaker 1: recently calling for unity in the party following a string
0:15
Speaker 1: of early victories for Donald Trump. That has been affirmed
0:18
Speaker 1: repeatedly with more than ten victories tonight in favor of
0:22
Speaker 1: the former president. Is it time for Nicki Haley to
0:25
Speaker 1: drop out?
0:27
Speaker 2: Well, yes it is. It's a little late for her
0:29
Speaker 2: to be dropping out. To say the truth, I gathered
0:33
Speaker 2: together about twelve leading conservatives in the country and said
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Speaker 2: Nikki a letter in the early part of February, right
0:40
Speaker 2: after the sith Carolina primary, and said, look, you didn't
0:44
Speaker 2: win your home state, You've lost all the primaries up
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Speaker 2: to this point, all the caucuses. Get out and support
0:51
Speaker 2: the president, and lets you unify the party and get
0:54
Speaker 2: about the serious business of defeating President Biden. That has
0:58
Speaker 2: to be our goal now of the entire Repobel Party.
1:01
Speaker 2: And by staying in and just attacking Trump the way
1:03
Speaker 2: she has personally, I think that she's probably missed her
1:06
Speaker 2: vest opportunity to get out. But still she still should
1:10
Speaker 2: and we should unify the party. It's a serious business.
1:15
Speaker 3: Well, sir, you speak of unifying the Republican Party. Certainly
1:18
Speaker 3: you use that language and that letter addressed to Miss Haley.
1:20
Speaker 3: And yet when you look at the vote tallies coming in, granted,
1:23
Speaker 3: the votes have not been complete across any of these
1:25
Speaker 3: Super Tuesday states, but she currently has forty seven percent
1:28
Speaker 3: in Vermont. In Virginia, where you served as governor, thirty
1:32
Speaker 3: four point six percent. Yes, the state was called for Trump,
1:35
Speaker 3: but she is pulling in a relatively significant share of voters.
1:38
Speaker 3: Cand a Republican party that divided actually be unified in
1:42
Speaker 3: time for a general election in November.
1:45
Speaker 2: Oh, I think the party can unify in time for
1:47
Speaker 2: a general election. They look, these are landslide numbers. Let's
1:51
Speaker 2: let's be honest with each other here, and this is
1:53
Speaker 2: a really landslide election that we're seeing tonight. And frankly,
1:57
Speaker 2: it's been a landslide up to this point the state
2:00
Speaker 2: of Virginia. You know, there are a lot of people,
2:04
Speaker 2: different kinds of attitudes and the people in Virginia. I've
2:07
Speaker 2: served as governor of the state. But Trump is carrying
2:10
Speaker 2: the state tonight two to one, almost two to one,
2:13
Speaker 2: and that's dramatic. And then many of the other states
2:16
Speaker 2: are sometimes three and four to run to one. This
2:19
Speaker 2: is a landslide primary victory tonight. So the point is this,
2:25
Speaker 2: this is an opportunity for Nikki Helly to get out
2:27
Speaker 2: and say, look, the time has come for us to
2:30
Speaker 2: unify the people who have been supporting me. That's an
2:32
Speaker 2: honest thing to do. Everybody that runs in an election
2:35
Speaker 2: is going to get vote. The time has come to
2:37
Speaker 2: really get out there and talk about the serious business
2:41
Speaker 2: of changing the country, of really addressing the issue on
2:44
Speaker 2: the border, of really addressing crime in the streets, of
2:47
Speaker 2: really addressing this problem of inflation which President Biden created.
2:52
Speaker 2: Let's face it, at the beginning of his administration. He
2:54
Speaker 2: created this inflation. He did it deliberately. But the problem
2:58
Speaker 2: is that working men and women discovery of suffering because
3:01
Speaker 2: of this is costing so much money now just to
3:04
Speaker 2: have the necessities of life. There's a president amath of COVID.
3:09
Speaker 1: Governor. We don't really have a way to confirm me
3:11
Speaker 1: intentionally caused inflation here at Bloomberg, but I most recently
3:15
Speaker 1: you were with us to talk about your passion to
3:18
Speaker 1: fund our ally in Ukraine at war right now with Russia.
3:23
Speaker 1: If Donald Trump is the next president, A lot of
3:25
Speaker 1: folks think that money might not be coming. Is that
3:27
Speaker 1: a worry of yours?
3:29
Speaker 2: Well, let me say this. You know and everybody else
3:32
Speaker 2: knows that I am a strong supporter of Ukraine. I
3:35
Speaker 2: believe the Russian aggression is a serious global issue and
3:39
Speaker 2: has to be addressed. But when I was ambassador to
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Speaker 2: Ossee and Vienna on behalf of the United States, that
3:46
Speaker 2: was the time when President Trump actually gave Javelin weapons
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Speaker 2: to the Ukrainians so that they could resist the Russian onslaught.
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Speaker 2: He never really told me or anybody around me to
3:55
Speaker 2: back up from the Russians. We were taking a very
3:58
Speaker 2: strong message there. The point is that I believe that
4:01
Speaker 2: the track record for President Trump has been strong on
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Speaker 2: foreign policy, and certainly if I'm in a position to
4:06
Speaker 2: advise him, I would advise him of the importance of
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Speaker 2: the Ukrainian support.
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Speaker 3: Sir, are you hoping you would be in a position
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Speaker 3: to advise him in a second administration? Would you seek
4:17
Speaker 3: a job?
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Speaker 2: Well, I'd seek to have an opportunity to to offer
4:22
Speaker 2: him the best counsel that I can s up to
4:24
Speaker 2: the President as to what he wants to do. But I,
4:27
Speaker 2: on my part, feel strongly about this issue and about
4:29
Speaker 2: the other issues as well. And you know, once again
4:32
Speaker 2: I've beg to differ with you on inflation. I observed
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Speaker 2: all those big, big spending programs to President Biden was
4:40
Speaker 2: putting in place at the beginning of the administration, and
4:43
Speaker 2: I knew, just like you did, that it was inevitably
4:45
Speaker 2: going to cause inflation, and we got inflation. The interesting
4:49
Speaker 2: question is the impact that it has on working men
4:51
Speaker 2: and women. This is now a populist campaign, which really
4:55
Speaker 2: means that he's concerned about people living paycheck to paycheck,
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Speaker 2: people who are trying to makegainst me trying to pay tuitions,
5:02
Speaker 2: trying to pay gas, trying to pay groceries. This is
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Speaker 2: a campaign, and a candidate addresses and speaks to those issues.
5:09
Speaker 4: All right.
5:10
Speaker 3: Jim Gilmore, former chairman of the Republican National Committee, former
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Speaker 3: governor of Virginia, thank you so much for joining us.
5:17
Speaker 1: Joining us now is Selinda Lake, the president of Lake
5:20
Speaker 1: Research Partners, for her take on what we've learned this evening.
5:23
Speaker 1: It's great to see you on Super Tuesday. Thanks, thanks
5:27
Speaker 1: for it. Here is the story tonight that the pollsters
5:29
Speaker 1: were right. Ah, I'd love that to be the story.
5:32
Speaker 5: We're never no one ever says that I'm coming back
5:35
Speaker 5: every night. But you guys, no, I think the story
5:38
Speaker 5: is the same story it was like six months ago.
5:41
Speaker 5: Joe Biden is going to be the nominee of the
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Speaker 5: Democrats and Donald Trump is going to be the nominee
5:44
Speaker 5: of the Republicans.
5:45
Speaker 3: Fair enough, Okay, fair enough. And Nikki Hayley perhaps was
5:49
Speaker 3: a factor only on the margins and may not be
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Speaker 3: a factor after this evening, depending on what decisions.
5:54
Speaker 1: She We hope she stays in.
5:56
Speaker 3: How likely is that though? In your mind?
5:58
Speaker 5: I think it depends on her own owners, And I
6:01
Speaker 5: think I would assume that there's an awful lot of
6:04
Speaker 5: pressure for her to get out if she doesn't win
6:06
Speaker 5: anything tonight. But you know, it depends on her donors.
6:09
Speaker 5: That's when candidates get out, when they run out of money.
6:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, of course, there's a special group out there, seventeen
6:15
Speaker 1: percent who dislike both candidates. I'm to be honest with you,
6:20
Speaker 1: I'm surprised on some days that number is so small
6:22
Speaker 1: considering the conversation we're having in America right now about
6:25
Speaker 1: age about divisiveness. What did they do stay home?
6:29
Speaker 5: It's a really great question, and in some of the
6:32
Speaker 5: polls it's a size twenty twenty one percent. It's record
6:35
Speaker 5: high number for this early in the game. By the
6:38
Speaker 5: end of the campaign, there's often a number of voters,
6:40
Speaker 5: but this is a record high number this or like
6:42
Speaker 5: many of them are contemplating third party and when you
6:46
Speaker 5: push them, they'd really like a different set of choices.
6:48
Speaker 5: But when you push them right now, they go for
6:51
Speaker 5: Joe Biden, and they have pretty consistently. That's good news
6:54
Speaker 5: for us because in twenty sixteen they search for Donald Trump.
6:57
Speaker 5: So it's a very different election time.
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Speaker 3: Well, so when we're looking at some of the figures
7:02
Speaker 3: in these Republican primary states in which Nicki Haley, while yes,
7:05
Speaker 3: is losing to Donald Trump, she's pulling pretty consistently right now,
7:09
Speaker 3: knowing the full figures aren't in twenty to thirty percent,
7:12
Speaker 3: how many Nicki Haley voters could become Joe Biden voters?
7:15
Speaker 3: Is there an overlap in the ven diagram of those
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Speaker 3: double haters and the people who are voting for Nicki Haey?
7:20
Speaker 5: Is an overlap but it's hard because they hate Joe
7:23
Speaker 5: Blacking so much, so I think it's more Liza. They'd
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Speaker 5: be third party. There's also a lot of voters considering
7:29
Speaker 5: skipping the race, not skipping voting, but skipping the race,
7:33
Speaker 5: so down.
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Speaker 1: The ballot just yeah, top, yeah.
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Speaker 5: And that's interesting because we've only had like three percent
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Speaker 5: of the voters that do that normally, and usually the
7:41
Speaker 5: presidential brings people in, but now that presidential is discouraging people.
7:45
Speaker 1: How about that? So tell us about the sample. We
7:47
Speaker 1: keep hearing the samples broken, people light upholster, They don't
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Speaker 1: answer their damn phone anymore. You have to get them online.
7:54
Speaker 1: How do you get an accurate number in this world?
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Speaker 5: Well, it's really hard. And can you tell all your
7:58
Speaker 5: viewers to please pick up the phone yourself. If it
8:01
Speaker 5: says Lake Research Polls.
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Speaker 2: Please take it out.
8:03
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, But you call them back time and time again.
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Speaker 5: You offer them multiple ways to respond online, telephone, text,
8:12
Speaker 5: and you also you try to like we introduce ourselves
8:15
Speaker 5: by saying we're not selling anything. We're not going to
8:17
Speaker 5: ask you for a contribution.
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Speaker 3: Because people like.
8:19
Speaker 5: To give their opinions, but they just don't want to
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Speaker 5: be hammered to change your utilities.
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Speaker 1: That's the first word out of your mouth. I'm not
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Speaker 1: selling you anything, and I am not a liar yet
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Speaker 1: from this.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, this is how the sausage is made. The sausage
8:34
Speaker 3: being political polls in the United States you mentioned a
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Speaker 3: few times now though, So Linda, this idea of people
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Speaker 3: maybe going to a third party. You don't like this
8:42
Speaker 3: general election matchup between Democrats and Republicans. You look for
8:45
Speaker 3: option see whatever option see is Utah just closed at
8:50
Speaker 3: the top of this hour at ten pm Eastern. RFK
8:52
Speaker 3: Junior was on the ballot in Utah. He's struggled to
8:55
Speaker 3: get on other ballots, though. How real of a factor
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Speaker 3: is he in this in this contest?
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Speaker 5: Well, the interesting thing is, first of all, he's not
9:02
Speaker 5: on the ballot in very many places, but he is
9:04
Speaker 5: on the ballot in a cup of swing states. It's
9:06
Speaker 5: also RFK is being misunderstood for his father. You probably
9:11
Speaker 5: saw the poll by Echelon where half of the voters
9:14
Speaker 5: identified his father's picture for him. And what's interesting is
9:18
Speaker 5: if you get to know him, you don't like him,
9:20
Speaker 5: but that name is very formidable on the Democratic side,
9:24
Speaker 5: and all of the third parties pull from the Democrats.
9:28
Speaker 5: That pulls from Joe Biden. And this is the important
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Speaker 5: piece that third parties can't win, but they can't be
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Speaker 5: spoilers and they can elect Donald Trump.
9:35
Speaker 1: It has to be like Democrats need to run a
9:37
Speaker 1: clarifying campaign on this. I'm being serious, This isn't your
9:41
Speaker 1: father's Kennedy.
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Speaker 5: Well, they actually have in the Free Press, and people
9:45
Speaker 5: are quite surprised when they hear that he's an anti vaxer,
9:49
Speaker 5: when they hear that he has a mixed record on abortion,
9:52
Speaker 5: They think of him as a Kennedy and environmentalist. So
9:54
Speaker 5: what could be wrong with that?
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Speaker 3: Well, you bring up abortion. Of course, in the last
9:59
Speaker 3: election cycle, mid term cycle in twenty twenty two, we
10:01
Speaker 3: saw that issue as really being a turnout driver and
10:04
Speaker 3: in fact a disruptor in the elections. Democrats performed significantly
10:08
Speaker 3: better than was expected going in. Is that going to
10:12
Speaker 3: be the same kind of force in twenty twenty four?
10:15
Speaker 3: It doesn't have the same galvanizing effect that much further
10:17
Speaker 3: down the road from the Dobbs decision, the overturning of Rope.
10:20
Speaker 5: Well, this is the gift that keeps on giving. So
10:23
Speaker 5: there were some voters who thought, well, they're done it's
10:25
Speaker 5: over until the IVF decision and then the Supreme Court
10:29
Speaker 5: in Alabama, and then the Supreme Court decision that's coming
10:32
Speaker 5: down about jailing providers in Idaho, and then the Supreme
10:35
Speaker 5: Court decision that comes down about medication abortion nephipristone. And
10:39
Speaker 5: what voters have concluded is they're not done yet. They
10:43
Speaker 5: really mean it, they really want a national ban. And
10:45
Speaker 5: there are a number of states that have initiatives on
10:49
Speaker 5: the ballot and we haven't lost an initiative yet. We
10:52
Speaker 5: saw the surgeon turn out in Ohio on campuses and
10:56
Speaker 5: young people. So yes, this is a very key rategic
11:00
Speaker 5: element of the twenty twenty four elections.
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Speaker 1: So often we have Slimda Lake at the table here
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Speaker 1: do a little quick math with us. Trump campaign says
11:07
Speaker 1: he's presumptive nominee, likely by March nineteenth, maybe even the twelfth,
11:12
Speaker 1: after running the table like this tonight. Yeah, it's the
11:15
Speaker 1: earlier date in your view.
11:16
Speaker 5: I think so, And honestly, I think he's a nominee today.
11:19
Speaker 5: I think he was a nominee last month. And Joe
11:22
Speaker 5: Biden is our nominee in Kate there was any question
11:24
Speaker 5: about that.
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Speaker 3: I just want to follow up on your point though
11:27
Speaker 3: about young voters. You mentioned how the abortion issue drives
11:30
Speaker 3: them out, but we also saw in Michigan young voters
11:32
Speaker 3: in the college towns yeah, ann Arbor and East Lansing,
11:37
Speaker 3: more of them voting uncommitted because young people also have
11:40
Speaker 3: a problem with the president's stance on Israel, given what's
11:43
Speaker 3: happening to Palestinian life in Gaza. How concerned are you
11:47
Speaker 3: about the uncommitted movement or more just what it means.
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Speaker 5: I'm very concerned about it. I'm very concerned about the
11:53
Speaker 5: division among young voters because that was part of our
11:55
Speaker 5: secret sauce, not just for this election, but for the
11:58
Speaker 5: long term.
11:59
Speaker 1: I will say this.
12:01
Speaker 5: They're not going to vote for Donald Trump. They might
12:04
Speaker 5: vote for third party right, they could not show up,
12:06
Speaker 5: they could skip to presidential, they could vote with third party.
12:10
Speaker 5: The president and the vice president taken lots of actions
12:13
Speaker 5: around abortion, around student loans. I hope and pray that
12:17
Speaker 5: we have a ceasefire before Ramadan and all of those
12:20
Speaker 5: will be important. But young voters are very divided, and
12:23
Speaker 5: it's very very serious concern for our party.
12:26
Speaker 1: We're waiting for results in Utah. Just to reset. If
12:30
Speaker 1: you're joining us late here, as part of our special
12:32
Speaker 1: coverage on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Donald Trump winning eleven
12:36
Speaker 1: of fifteen states. It's been a sweep so far, Kayley.
12:39
Speaker 1: I know that you've got your eyes on Vermont here
12:41
Speaker 1: and that could swing back into Nikki Haley's favorite here,
12:45
Speaker 1: but this is pretty remarkable. Joe Biden now also winning
12:49
Speaker 1: the Democratic presidential primary in Utah, and we should have
12:53
Speaker 1: mentioned if we didn't already, Minnesota came in for Joe Biden. Kayley.
12:57
Speaker 1: We'll be looking at the results a little more carefully.
12:59
Speaker 1: To get back to what you were talking about him.
13:01
Speaker 1: The series of uncommitted protest campaigns in states like Minnesota,
13:07
Speaker 1: much like we saw in Michigan, give us a sense
13:09
Speaker 1: of what to look for in the general.
13:10
Speaker 3: Yeah, or what to look forward to in the state
13:12
Speaker 3: of the Union is Biden tries to message around those issues. So, Linda,
13:15
Speaker 3: it's worth noting that Super Tuesday is today, forty eight
13:18
Speaker 3: hours from now. Joe and I will still be here
13:20
Speaker 3: in studio for another long day because the President will
13:22
Speaker 3: be addressing the nation, perhaps the biggest speech he can
13:25
Speaker 3: give in this election cycle, aside from the convention. What
13:29
Speaker 3: is the number one thing he needs to message in
13:32
Speaker 3: that speech.
13:33
Speaker 5: I think there are three things that he needs to do. One,
13:35
Speaker 5: he needs to set up the contrast, and he's really
13:37
Speaker 5: fighting mad and prepared to do that. Number Two, he
13:40
Speaker 5: needs to address the economy and inflation, and I think
13:43
Speaker 5: you're going to hear him be very very aggressive about
13:46
Speaker 5: price gouging and rising prices and the actions they're going
13:49
Speaker 5: to take and they have taken. And then the third
13:51
Speaker 5: thing is he has to paint the picture of what
13:54
Speaker 5: four more years of Joe Biden will be and what
13:57
Speaker 5: the hell that four more years of Donald Trump could be?
14:00
Speaker 3: All Right, Slinda Lake, great to have you with us
14:02
Speaker 3: at our DC studios this evening. Really appreciate you joining us,
14:05
Speaker 3: Linda Lake, Lake Research Partners, President and polster. Now we
14:10
Speaker 3: want to get some final thoughts from our political panel,
14:12
Speaker 3: Rick Davis, partner at Stone Cord Capital, and Jeanie Shanzano,
14:15
Speaker 3: political science professor at Iona Universities. We wrap up our
14:18
Speaker 3: Super Tuesday programming here on Bloomberg Television and Radio. Genie,
14:22
Speaker 3: first to you, what really did we learn tonight?
14:25
Speaker 4: I think we learned that Joe Biden has a task
14:28
Speaker 4: ahead of him with this unusual setup of Super Tuesday.
14:32
Speaker 4: And then two days later the State of the Union.
14:34
Speaker 1: And his task is big.
14:35
Speaker 4: That maybe why he didn't come out tonight and speak publicly,
14:38
Speaker 4: and it is to tell the American public not only
14:41
Speaker 4: what he's done, but what he is going to do.
14:43
Speaker 4: And you know, he is facing really bad poll numbers
14:46
Speaker 4: over the last weekend, so he's got his work cut
14:49
Speaker 4: out for him. But he has the race that he wanted,
14:51
Speaker 4: and so does Donald Trump. They both wanted to face
14:54
Speaker 4: each other again, even if we don't want it. That's
14:57
Speaker 4: what they want and they're going to get it.
14:58
Speaker 1: Eat to be the wet blanket here, but I'm always
15:00
Speaker 1: glad to play that role. We said in New Hampshire
15:03
Speaker 1: it was a late night there, Rick, we said this
15:06
Speaker 1: would be the beginning of the general election. Here we
15:08
Speaker 1: are saying it again. Did we just waste all that time? No,
15:11
Speaker 1: it's not wasted.
15:12
Speaker 6: I mean it was interesting and we got to see
15:14
Speaker 6: a little bit of fighting.
15:15
Speaker 1: But there's no.
15:16
Speaker 6: Question this was Donald Trump's night. Not only was it
15:19
Speaker 6: Donald Trump's night because he collected the delegacy needs he'll
15:22
Speaker 6: he'll finish it off next week. But the reality is
15:25
Speaker 6: that they both of his opponents, Nicky Haley and Joe
15:28
Speaker 6: Biden gave him the night. It was his night to
15:31
Speaker 6: talk and nobody else did so. As Genie said, Biden's
15:35
Speaker 6: got a job to do. On Thursday, that'll be his
15:37
Speaker 6: night to talk and and that will signify the real
15:41
Speaker 6: cutting of the ribbon and off to the general election.
15:44
Speaker 6: This is the moment that voters are going to be
15:46
Speaker 6: looking in to see what the candidates were saying. They'll
15:50
Speaker 6: see Donald Trump in the news tomorrow the victor, and
15:54
Speaker 6: they'll wait to see I guess from Joe Biden on Thursday.
15:58
Speaker 3: Absolutely, and of course we're can. Genie will be with
16:00
Speaker 3: us on Thursday for that coverage of State of the
16:03
Speaker 3: Use It Union, And come Thursday, we don't know whether
16:06
Speaker 3: or not Nicki Haley will still be in this race.
16:09
Speaker 3: We have about ninety seconds left with you two, if
16:12
Speaker 3: you had to put odds by the next time we
16:13
Speaker 3: see you on Thursday on State of the Union night
16:16
Speaker 3: as to whether or not Nicki Haley will still be
16:18
Speaker 3: in the running. Genie, would you take that?
16:20
Speaker 1: But oh, I have no idea.
16:23
Speaker 4: You know, I think, you know, I think it depends
16:25
Speaker 4: on the donors. I mean, I think in this case,
16:27
Speaker 4: you really do have to do what Bloomberg does best
16:29
Speaker 4: follow the money, because she doesn't get out because she's
16:32
Speaker 4: not going to win. She gets out because she can't.
16:34
Speaker 4: She doesn't have the money to go forward. So I
16:35
Speaker 4: think it's all up to her donors.
16:37
Speaker 6: I think, yeah, I think that quiet is telling us
16:40
Speaker 6: everything there's there's there'll be no more campaign that has
16:44
Speaker 6: any legitimacy, And if she does, it's only a matter
16:47
Speaker 6: of time before she gets out. And then the question
16:49
Speaker 6: is does she endorse Donald Trump or not.
16:51
Speaker 1: That's spoken from somebody who's been there and had those
16:54
Speaker 1: hard conversations. Well, of course, keep you posted on whatever
16:57
Speaker 1: we're hearing from Nicki Haley's campaigns to Rick Davis and
17:01
Speaker 1: Geanie Shanzano. That does it for us here for now
17:04
Speaker 1: in Washington,