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Transcript

Navigating the Market’s Data Triple Threat · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning , traders !
• 0:02
  It is 5 am on Sunday , February 15th , 2026 , here on the West Coast .
• 0:07
  I am your host , Penny Profitt , and you are listening to Spy Trader .
• 0:11
  Grab your coffee and settle in because , while the markets are taking a breather for the Presidents' Day holiday tomorrow , the week ahead is shaping up to be a total whirlwind .
• 0:21
  We are fresh off the psychological milestone of the S&P 500 , tracked by the SPY ETF , crossing the 7,000 level .
• 0:30
  But as we move into this week , the big question is whether we can keep this momentum as we transition from pure AI hype into a more balanced , earningsbacked market .
• 0:39
  Let's look at the big news .
• 0:41
  The week starts slowly due to the holiday , but it ends with what I call a data triple threat .
• 0:47
  On Wednesday , February 18th , the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its January meeting .
• 0:54
  Traders are a bit on edge because of rumors that Kevin Warsh might succeed Jerome Powell .
• 1:00
  Warsh has a reputation for wanting to keep interest rates higher for longer , so the market is watching closely to see how that fits with our cooling inflation .
• 1:09
  Then comes the main event on Friday , February 20th .
• 1:13
  We are getting the Advance Q4 2025 GDP numbers and the Core PCE Price Index .
• 1:19
  We expect GDP to show the economy is still resilient , growing at about 3 to 3.5 percent .
• 1:27
  If the Core PCE lands near the projected 2.8 percent , it could be a goldilocks scenario that is very bullish for broad market funds like VOO and VTI .
• 1:38
  However , if inflation comes in hot , we might see a selloff in longterm bonds , which would hit the iShares 20 plus Year Treasury Bond ETF , or TLT , pretty hard .
• 1:49
  Looking at specific sectors , the leadership is shifting .
• 1:53
  We are moving away from circular AI financing and looking for realworld profitability .
• 1:59
  Walmart reports its earnings on Thursday , February 19th .
• 2:03
  As the first major retailer to report after the holidays , Walmart is our bellwether .
• 2:08
  Their ability to handle tariffrelated costs will tell us a lot about the health of the consumer .
• 2:14
  If they beat expectations , it validates the Vanguard Real Estate ETF , VNQ , and other retailheavy segments .
• 2:22
  Over in tech , Palo Alto Networks reports on Tuesday , which will give us a pulse on cybersecurity spending .
• 2:30
  We also have the DeveloperWeek conference in San Jose starting Wednesday , which will keep the focus on how companies are actually using those large language models .
• 2:39
  Finally , keep an ear out for Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman on Thursday at the Banking Outlook Conference .
• 2:46
  Her comments on bank capital could really move the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund , known as XLF .
• 2:53
  So , what is the game plan for this week ?
• 2:56
  First , I like a Retail Defense strategy .
• 2:59
  Walmart is at alltime highs and has been beating the S&P 500 lately .
• 3:05
  I recommend holding Walmart or the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLP , as a safe haven while tech remains volatile .
• 3:14
  Second , let's talk about the Inflation Hedge .
• 3:17
  With inflation trending down but the Friday data still a mystery , you might want to accumulate the iShares Core U.S.
• 3:23
  Aggregate Bond ETF , or AGG .
• 3:27
  It offers stable yields if that PCE data comes in cool .
• 3:31
  Lastly , for the tech enthusiasts , the Invesco QQQ Trust is your best bet to play the broader trend , but be cautious .
• 3:39
  With NVIDIA reporting the following week , people are already moving their money around in anticipation .
• 3:46
  My final takeaway is to lean into diversified ETFs like VOO and VTI to capture the broadening rally .
• 3:53
  Avoid putting all your eggs in the AI basket until we see that Friday data .
• 3:59
  That is it for this episode of Spy Trader !
• 4:02
  I am Penny Profitt , wishing you a profitable and peaceful week ahead .