Latest / Turley Talks / Ep. 4221 Early Voting Is a DISASTER for the Democrats!!!

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Ep. 4221 Early Voting Is a DISASTER for the Democrats!!! · Turley Talks

• 0:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: The liberal globalist order is on its brink and awakening a new conservative age.
• 0:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: Dr. Steve Turley, join me every day as we discover answers to today's toughest challenges and explore the re-bondalization of conservative civilization.
• 0:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is Turley Talks.
• 0:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: The first wave of early votes are coming in and the numbers are beginning to tell a very different story from the one the legacy media has been trying to sell us across several crucial bannerground states, Democrats are falling behind their previous benchmarks, Republican participation is surging and one largely overlooked group of voters is turning out in astonishing numbers.
• 0:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: Stick them to the very end of this video because once you see who is actually casting these ballots and who is conspicuously staying home, you understand why early voting is already becoming a disaster for the Democrats.
• 1:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: Hey gang, it's me, Dr. Steve, your patron professor, celebrating yet another glorious day in the Trumpian golden age that you made possible back in November of 2024.
• 1:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: So if you want to front receipt on how you continue to change the world in ways you never even imagined, make sure to smack that bell and subscribe button in person early voting began in Georgia yesterday and it's frankly stunning.
• 1:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: We're seeing virtually the exact same pattern that we've been seeing in Ohio again, a huge shout out to Tonerus Hughes on X for doing the hard work and putting together this data for all of us.
• 1:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: The turnout has been nothing short of a disaster for the Democrats in 2024.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: The turnout for day one of in-person early voting was 315,000 votes.
• 1:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: As of yesterday, that number collapsed to just 188,000 to 40 percent collapse.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: But the key with Georgia turnout is the black vote.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Because Georgia's black electorate votes overwhelmingly Democratic, while most white voters favor Republicans, the black vote for
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  [SPEAKER_00]: falling substantially makes the electorate wider and therefore more Republican forcing Democrats to win an unusually large share of white voters to compensate.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So day one of in person voting in 2022, the last midterms was 39% black.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: As of yesterday, day one of 2026 in person early voting, the black vote was down to 33%.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: was the year that Brian Kent, the Republican, went on to stop Stacey Abrams by eight points in the Gubernatorial Contest.
• 2:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: That drop is not good for the Democrats when the benchmark, their 2022 benchmark is a losing benchmark.
• 2:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: They have to get at least what they got in 2022 and they're not getting that.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And keep in mind, the pattern that we've been seeing particularly in Ohio is that the Democrats start strong.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: They're super Dems, they're high propensity voters come out to vote on day one, and then their totals begin to gradually dissipate.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: There's a very noticeable slowdown like we've been seeing in every single county in Ohio.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Here's a representative sample from Licking County.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: You could clearly see the pattern here.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Democrats start strong as strong, meaning their their highest numbers come out almost immediately.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: 43% of the vote on day one of in person early voting.
• 3:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: And then as you look gradually, it just declines virtually every subsequent day.
• 3:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: They fall to 37% of the vote, then 35, then 28, and now they're down to 26% of the vote.
• 3:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: Whereas Republicans are going the opposite direction.
• 3:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: They've gone from 31% of the vote on the first day to now 38%.
• 4:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: So that's the pattern and that's exactly what we'll be looking for in Georgia in fact we already appear to be seeing it as of this morning is the peak time for Georgia's in person black vote and today it's at 33%.
• 4:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: So that means it's only going to go down from there throughout the day.
• 4:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: It may be down into the 20s by the end of the day.
• 4:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: So it looks like we're already seeing that
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  [SPEAKER_00]: pattern.
• 4:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: In the meantime, take a look at the latest numbers coming out of Nevada.
• 4:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: Back in 2022, the Democrats had had massed 52% of early votes at the same time before the election where Republicans were just 16% of the vote.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Now take a look at what we're seeing today.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Democrats have fallen 8 points to 44% of the vote, whereas Republicans have gained the early nine points with 25% of the vote.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Now Nevada is a key state to keep your eyes on throughout the next few weeks because 80 to 90% of the state votes early by mail.
• 5:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: So what we're getting here is this as far as these returns are concerned.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: There is no sign of a blue way.
• 5:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: Again, keep in mind, we're comparing these numbers to 2022.
• 5:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's when Republican Joe Lombardo won Nevada's governor's mansion.
• 5:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: He was far ahead.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: He is far ahead now.
• 5:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: than he was at this time in 2022.
• 5:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: In neighboring Arizona, we're now getting word that Democrats have given up on Arizona too.
• 5:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: There are second congressional district represented by Republican Eli Crane.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: That was a long scene as a possible pickup for the Dems and not anymore.
• 5:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that's significant because if they can't flip a Trump plus nine district in Arizona,
• 5:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: So that's the key towel with the Democrats withdrawing their money from Arizona to speaking of the Democrats of all, but abandoned Texas.
• 6:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: Tolerico is literally broke, and there's no more money coming in, whereas Pakistan is more money than any Texas Senate candidate ever in history, largely thanks to Elon.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: In Florida, it's 2024 all over again.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the early vote returns are almost identical to where they were at this time in 2024.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: When Trump, of course, went on to win the state by 13 points.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And that's very important for seats like Florida 25, which would be a strong flip.
• 6:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: for the GOP.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And the top it all off in the state of Michigan, absentee ballot returns are showing a very noticeable shift toward Trump one counties as compared to 2024.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So Trump one counties are up 47% of all returned ballots from 45% at this point in 2024.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Whereas Harris won counties
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  [SPEAKER_00]: are down 52% from 54% in 2024.
• 7:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that makes for a plus four point Republican electorate in Michigan right now as we speak, according to the mail in voting.
• 7:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's very, very good news for Mike Rogers who's running a great campaign out there, but the really good news.
• 7:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: is who is coming out to vote?
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  [SPEAKER_00]: It's not just simply the partisan breakdown.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: We're seeing a particular demographic that's coming out and dominating these early votes literally everywhere.
• 7:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: And let's just say it's a nightmare for the Democrats.
• 7:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: again, I've been thinking a lot lately about what it means to build a future for our families, not simply to react to the changes happening around us, but to take advantage of them.
• 7:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: And one of the most remarkable opportunities I'm seeing right now without question is artificial intelligence.
• 7:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: AI.
• 7:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, I know when you hear that a lot of people say, yeah, Steve,
• 7:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: A.I.
• 7:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not a tech person.
• 8:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know the first thing about A.I.
• 8:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, that's precise of why I wanted to share this with you.
• 8:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: A good friend of our show, co-author of one of my books, Joseph Aaron, has been doing something extraordinary with his family.
• 8:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: He made a commitment that every member of his household would learn how to use A.I.
• 8:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: to build their own income strain.
• 8:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: So his 18-year-old son, his 16-year-old son, his 21-year-old daughter,
• 8:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: and is wife.
• 8:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're not computer scientists.
• 8:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're a family learning how to use these new tools to create real businesses and open up new possibilities for their future.
• 8:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that's what makes us so exciting.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: AI is changing the amount of time
• 8:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: and technical experience it takes to get certain kinds of businesses off the ground.
• 8:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: Work that once required a whole team can now, in many cases, be handled with tools that ordinary people can learn to use.
• 8:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: Joseph and his kids are now inviting you to see how they're doing it.
• 8:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're hosting a completely free, free, free, free, free, free, free, free, free, free,
• 8:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: five-day live experience on Zoom, where they walk you through the process of building an AI-sisted income stream of your own.
• 9:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: You'll get to see the tools, learn the steps, and work alongside them as they show you what's possible.
• 9:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: Our team attended their previous event and I got to tell you, I was absolutely impressed.
• 9:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: We watched people who had never used AI before began putting together
• 9:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: possible to have imagined just a few years ago.
• 9:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: And here's something else.
• 9:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: We shared this event with you guys a couple of months back, and the response was tremendous.
• 9:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I'm delighted to tell you that Joseph and his family are opening it up again.
• 9:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: You don't need to be a programmer.
• 9:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: You don't need to have years of business experience.
• 9:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: You do need to be willing to learn, you know, put in the work and discover how these tools can help you.
• 9:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: Click the link below and register for Joseph Aaron's free five day live Zoom experience.
• 9:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: Come see what he and his family have built and learn how you can begin building something of your own.
• 10:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: Click on that link below right now.
• 10:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: Alright, so we made the witnessing what veteran polster Matt Tauri's calling a silver wave, right?
• 10:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: Forget red wave or blue wave, we're talking a silver wave, a surge of older Americans who are emerging as the most energized voting block in this election.
• 10:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: According to Tauri's polling, voters age 65 and older are roughly 30 points, more enthusiastic about voting.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: than those between 18 and 39, and unlike last several election cycles, these seniors are now breaking decisively toward Republicans.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: They're all in with the GOP.
• 10:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: We're talking by double digits.
• 10:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: That means that the electorate showing up early could be considerably older and therefore substantially more Republican
• 10:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: than many of the major polling models currently assume.
• 10:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: Here's some stats from what we're seeing in the early voting in Ohio.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: This is data from Hamilton County again coming to us by way of tonerous use of X.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And as you can clearly see, the 65 and over cohort
• 11:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: accounts for over 64% of the vote, as of yesterday, they were 70% on day one, and they've consistently been the single most represented age demographic of all other ages by far.
• 11:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: By contrast, take a look at the under 30 vote.
• 11:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: Okay, the under 30 votes the most reliably Democrat vote.
• 11:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's crash to barely 5%.
• 11:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: We're seeing the same thing in Georgia, Georgia is in person early voting.
• 11:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: The under 30 cohort had crashed yesterday to just 5% of the vote.
• 11:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, this demographic discrepancy could have enormous consequences, especially when it comes to polling.
• 11:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: You see the fundamental flaw polling besides being generally a left-wing industry.
• 12:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: is that polling can't tell you who is actually going to come out and show up to vote.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And so that's why toweries one of the better pollsters out there.
• 12:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's why
• 12:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's cautioning that pollsters are going to have no choice, but to re-weight their surveys once enough early in mail and ballots arrive to reveal just how dominant senior participation really is.
• 12:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: If seniors continue turning out at these levels while younger, more Democrat, leaning voters remain comparatively unenthusiastic.
• 12:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: races currently showing Democrats ahead by three, four, or even five points could suddenly tighten into dead heat or shift dramatically toward Republican candidates.
• 12:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: In other words, the much-hype blue wave may be colliding with a largely overlooked
• 12:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: silver wave and according to towery, older boulders could become the decisive force that completely upends expectations on election day.
• 13:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: So that's certainly another factor that will be keeping a very, very close eye on in the days of head.
• 13:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: So bottom line, GOP turnout appears very strong.
• 13:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: The Democrat turnout by contrast looks remarkably weak.
• 13:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: Republican voting seniors are coming out in droves while young voters have virtually disappeared.
• 13:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: And while this is not an indication of a red wave, it is most certainly not an indication for a blue wave.
• 13:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: Again, it's still very early.
• 13:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: We've got three more weeks to go, so make sure you do everything you can do to get the vote out and let's make this a mid-terms for the ages.
• 14:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: Come back again tomorrow for another episode celebrating the rise of a new conservative age.