Latest / TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast / #800: London Closed The Strait Of Hormuz with Tom Luongo

Transcript

#800: London Closed The Strait Of Hormuz with Tom Luongo · TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast

• 0:00
  You've had a dynamic where money has become freer than free.
• 0:10
  When you talk about a Fed just gone nuts, all the central banks going nuts.
• 0:16
  So it's all acting like safe haven.
• 0:18
  I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their
• 0:23
  currency, Bitcoin wins. In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor.
• 0:28
  I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin.
• 0:31
  If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.
• 0:36
  Mr. Luongo, it's been too long, sir.
• 0:39
  It has, Marty. I'm glad to see you. You look well.
• 0:43
  Feeling well. We had the Coin Center Gala in New York City last night.
• 0:47
  Brought the wife. We wound up taking the late night Amtrak back to Philly.
• 0:51
  So I didn't get home till like 2 a.m. But all things considered, feeling good right now.
• 0:54
  I just got back from doing three weeks in the American High West.
• 0:58
  So first we flew into Salt Lake and then we went up to Boise for a week.
• 1:03
  Got the chance to hang out with Blaine Holt and the Emberling game and a bunch of my patrons.
• 1:07
  And my wife got to go rock hounding out in the mountains and look for agates and opals and stuff.
• 1:13
  And she had a grand time.
• 1:15
  And then we went down to two weeks down at Moab and just, and that was retarded.
• 1:19
  And then we just flew home.
• 1:21
  And the point of this is that we just flew home on Monday night slash Tuesday morning.
• 1:25
  We took the red eye out of, out of Salt Lake.
• 1:27
  We got back yesterday morning.
• 1:29
  My daughter picked me up from the airport.
• 1:30
  My wife's up in Tennessee getting things because we're in, our whole life is in flux.
• 1:35
  I'm in Florida.
• 1:35
  She's now in Tennessee.
• 1:37
  While we, you know, make the final transition out of there.
• 1:40
  So, or potentially final transition out of there anymore.
• 1:44
  So you're, you're making personal transitions.
• 1:47
  It looks like the world is making a tectonic transition.
• 1:50
  Where, where do we start?
• 1:51
  Yeah.
• 1:52
  That's a good question.
• 1:54
  Where do we start?
• 1:55
  Um, yeah, I, it is a good question.
• 1:57
  Like, I don't know.
• 1:59
  Cause you and I haven't talked in a while.
• 2:00
  So, and I, I, I monitor your Twitter feed here and there, or at least the TFTC Twitter
• 2:05
  feed.
• 2:06
  And it, it's, it's interesting.
• 2:08
  Like, I, I want to touch on like the stuff that I'm, cause I, I want to, by the way,
• 2:12
  we were billed.
• 2:13
  This is a home and home.
• 2:14
  I want to have Marty on the GG and G podcast because there's a lot of stuff happening in
• 2:17
  crypto that I have no fricking clue about.
• 2:19
  I've been on any time, but I don't want to talk about that today.
• 2:21
  I want to see that for that podcast where Marty gets to be, you know, quote unquote,
• 2:24
  the talent, right?
• 2:25
  And I get to, I get to be the dumb host.
• 2:27
  So I want to just like keep it in, let's just keep it in the midterms and all that stuff.
• 2:31
  I'm actually interested to hear what you have to think.
• 2:34
  Maybe they'll do a little bit of a Caitlin Long thing where she comes on my podcast and
• 2:38
  interviews me, which is hilarious.
• 2:39
  But I'd like to hear where you stand on where we are six months into this whole, you know,
• 2:46
  Iran operation, the blowing up of the old order.
• 2:49
  I want to hear where you, where you think we are, because I'd be interested in that.
• 2:54
  i think we're in a spot where if you would have told me in february that we're still
• 3:01
  uh immersed in a conflict with ron i would call it a conflict doesn't even seem like a war yeah
• 3:06
  tankers being blown up but it seems like we're in the the blockade phase uh i would have been
• 3:12
  more dismayed than i actually like i i would expect it to be more dismayed than i am it feels
• 3:17
  like uh i mean again and people hate when you say this i mean yeah would i prefer not to be at war
• 3:24
  with the run yes but if you look at the oil flows particularly coming from venezuela um if you look
• 3:30
  at how i guess resilient the market has shown yes wti uh brent um the spreads and spread exists and
• 3:42
  diesel prices are up and obviously i don't like i filled up my car today it was like 126 dollars we
• 3:47
  got a tahoe and so it's not cheap and i don't like right looking at that but all things considered
• 3:53
  I don't think the Armageddon that people were calling for, the famine that people were calling for, has manifested.
• 4:01
  And if you look at the concessions that not only Iran may be forced to make, but others have made over the last six months, it seems like we're winning on the deal side.
• 4:17
  That's my perspective, at least.
• 4:19
  And no, that's a good starting point.
• 4:22
  So let's talk about, you mentioned Brent WTI.
• 4:25
  While you were talking, I was looking out on my phone because I wanted to bring up the actual state of the markets today.
• 4:30
  Because the one thing I didn't do this morning for the patrons was actually look at the Brent WTI spread, which is kind of important, right?
• 4:36
  And I normally do, but I had my head in quarterly charts and bond spreads and all that stuff.
• 4:43
  And, like, look, we have a $12 Brent WTI spread.
• 4:48
  Like WTI is trading at 88.50
• 4:51
  and Brent is trading at 100.5.
• 4:54
  Now $12 Brent to WTI spread is a classic.
• 4:57
  It's since this thing has started,
• 4:59
  whenever it blows out that wide,
• 5:01
  that's a classic.
• 5:02
  The Brent paper oil market
• 5:04
  is desperate to keep the price of oil up
• 5:07
  because somebody is going to go broke if it collapses So there a lot of this trying to keep that bubble in oil prices high And for me that a telltale sign since this thing has started
• 5:22
  that someone is short collateral.
• 5:25
  The value of that oil is necessary to keep certain derivative contracts
• 5:32
  that are based on that price and the price of Brent
• 5:35
  in a range that will keep somebody from having to make a margin call, right?
• 5:40
  And because we see that spread widen out all the time.
• 5:43
  It usually happens at the month end where they like paint the tape
• 5:47
  into the monthly close on Brent, but WTI is just not airing
• 5:52
  because remember, one is a physically settled contract.
• 5:55
  The other one is a purely financial contract.
• 5:58
  There are no oil trades against the Brent crude contract.
• 6:00
  It's purely, it's like the world's biggest contract for difference on the planet.
• 6:04
  You know, it might as well be, it might as well be a currency forward.
• 6:07
  You know what I mean?
• 6:09
  And so when you, when I see something like that, that's a, that in market terms is like
• 6:17
  the worst kind of believe me book.
• 6:19
  No, really guys, the world's going to melt down.
• 6:22
  Like the WTI right in the 88, it's pulling everything else down with it.
• 6:28
  So, yeah, no, from the beginning of the conflict, I think you and I spoke when April, May, something like that.
• 6:38
  I spoke and we were early on in the process and I was trying to parse what I thought was going on.
• 6:44
  It was very obvious to me in the first days of the war that.
• 6:50
  The Trump and company had a plan that plan may or may not have been what they told us the plan was.
• 6:58
  And I think on six months into this, I've now come to a different conclusion about where I thought we were back then.
• 7:04
  But all this is a preface to say it was very obvious with a number of the announcement that they made and the moves that they forced other people to make,
• 7:15
  specifically things like Lloyd's of London and all that stuff when the shipping insurance and all that.
• 7:20
  That was their goal was to blow up that old order.
• 7:25
  however that was going to work itself out and how long it was going to take for that to work itself
• 7:31
  out is you know that timing's up to the gods i don't know like i i don't have any idea but when
• 7:36
  you see a moment like lloyds of london canceling everybody's shipping insurance and then you can
• 7:42
  you can confidently go on to twitter and go iran hasn't closed the straits for moves well it's
• 7:46
  london has closed the straits the bank the tankers can't move because of legal reasons because they
• 7:51
  don't have any insurance, so they can't move.
• 7:54
  And then now all these tankers are sitting ducks for Iran's degraded weapons capability
• 8:01
  or missile capability to blow tankers up here and there when they need to, to write a headline
• 8:06
  and then pump the tires on Brent crude.
• 8:10
  So that's the way I looked at it back then.
• 8:13
  Now, what's really interesting, Marty, and I know is that the next big move, right, on that board, that was that one.
• 8:23
  Then there was the MOU that was signed, right?
• 8:26
  And that was immediately, effectively, within 20 days, immediately abrogated.
• 8:30
  But that was an MOU that was designed to be broken.
• 8:33
  It's kind of like the Minsk Accords.
• 8:34
  The Minsk agreements between Russia and Ukraine back in 2014, 2015, were a set of prerequisites for conflict to end that neither side would ever be able to agree too wholly.
• 8:47
  So it was an agreement designed to not be implemented.
• 8:50
  Well, in many ways, that's exactly what the Iran-US MOU about the ceasefire was about.
• 8:55
  It was a thing where neither side could, or let's put it this way, and I take the American side under this.
• 9:02
  This was a set of conditions that were perfectly reasonable for Iran.
• 9:05
  They gave we gave Iran more than they deserve because they already lost the war and Iran still couldn't hold to it, which exposes the fact that they actually are in this case, the IRGC, not Iran, the country.
• 9:17
  But the political authority, the dominant political authority in Iran couldn't agree to those terms because of because if they did agree to those terms, they would cease to exist as the dominant political authority in Iran.
• 9:30
  Right.
• 9:30
  But so that played out exactly the way I expected it to.
• 9:36
  And then once I started to see an entire cadre of people that I hadn't seen on Twitter in six months start screaming about the yen.
• 9:49
  And that started in mid-June, sort of right after the MOU was signed.
• 9:53
  I'm like, oh, what's going on here?
• 9:56
  I haven't seen, for example, Michael Gayad post anything other than pics of himself at the gym for six months to a year.
• 10:04
  And then all of a sudden he's like, the yen, motherfucker, the yen.
• 10:07
  I'm like, oh, okay.
• 10:08
  I know what's going on here.
• 10:10
  And I saw that not just with him, but with like six or seven other people.
• 10:14
  I like oh we moving forward now because Bank of Japan raised rates And then Besson steps in and takes center stage Trump fades away from the center of the political attention over Iran Besant is upgraded immediately and then the intervention happens
• 10:33
  That's when the definition of the story changed.
• 10:36
  This was no longer a story about Iran's nuclear weapon capability.
• 10:40
  This was always a story about we're going to break the old colonial powers of Europe,
• 10:45
  and this is how we're going to do it.
• 10:47
  and you know that's what i wrote in last month's newsletter for my my subscribers i said you know
• 10:54
  you sometimes you watch a movie where you think it's one thing and then it becomes something else
• 10:58
  i'm not talking about like fight club where fight club was always a movie about insomnia and
• 11:02
  isolation that manifests itself as this you know weird thing with the narrator having a you know
• 11:08
  having his imaginary friend you know direct his actions or offload his actions is really a story
• 11:14
  about schizophrenia. No, I'm talking about a movie where it looks like something in the first half,
• 11:19
  and then the midpoint turn happens, and it turns into something completely different.
• 11:23
  And in the article that I wrote for last month, I used two minor movies. One is Hancock with
• 11:29
  Will Smith, right, which just looks like a, you know, a star turn, you know, dumpy comedy,
• 11:35
  and then turns into this massive, like, mythical story about gods and the loss and the love and
• 11:43
  and, and, and, and sacrifice and all of that.
• 11:46
  And then bone Tomahawk is another Craig's dollars bone Tomahawk,
• 11:49
  which looks like, you know,
• 11:51
  some guys squabbling amongst themselves where they go to deal with the local
• 11:54
  Indian nuisance.
• 11:55
  And it turns into a fucking clash of civilizations of,
• 11:58
  of epic proportions.
• 12:00
  And these guys are getting like slaughtered and, you know,
• 12:03
  eaten and all sorts of shows turns into a horror show.
• 12:05
  And it's a completely, you know, everybody didn't, you know,
• 12:08
  when you go in and you look at the story and you sold one story,
• 12:13
  but it's not really that. It's a much bigger thing than just a little tiny cone.
• 12:19
  And that's where I think we are. And, you know, to your point that you made at the outset when you
• 12:25
  said, you know, if I, if I thought six months from now, we were still, this was still lingering on,
• 12:30
  but I feel better about it or as good about it as I do. And the truth is, is that I never,
• 12:34
  I always, in the moment it started, I always knew that this wasn't the real story, but this is the
• 12:38
  story you had to sell. I'm like, okay, so what is the real story? And the real story is that
• 12:43
  we chose this time and place. Davos didn't choose it for us. Netanyahu didn't choose it for us.
• 12:51
  Because the sequence of events is too strong. Once you realize that it was the end carry trade,
• 12:59
  and the oil trade based on the end carry trade, that is the story. Then you have to go back to
• 13:05
  the Japanese party elections back in February. So what a shock that we get. Takeishi is able to
• 13:14
  put together a coalition that has zero British influence in it. That wing of the sovereignty
• 13:22
  swing of the LDP plus the minor party, Ishin no Kai, who are the base motherfuckers of Japan.
• 13:29
  Like they're the anti-immigrant party, kick out all the Indians, kick everybody out, Japan for
• 13:33
  Japan. They're like, they're the, they're the party that the West, that the Western press tries
• 13:38
  to paint AFD as in Germany or MAG as that coalition made it abundantly clear. And then the purges
• 13:47
  that were happening over in China of the Hu Xintao faction within the Chinese military and the like
• 13:52
  gutting of the old military architecture, both in China and the United States.
• 13:58
  that set the i think that was what set everything in motion so that happens on february 8th and 20
• 14:04
  days later you know he just comes out of the the woodwork and starts bombing japan and all the
• 14:10
  pieces were in place because he moved three two fucking full carrier groups and it's not like he
• 14:15
  was like not telegraphing his move like sometimes sometimes a spade is just a spade so you attack
• 14:25
  Maduro, then you take out Maduro, then Japan is stabilized and taken over, is added to your
• 14:35
  pile of assets. Now you can go after Iran. And then you can force the Gulf Arab states out of
• 14:41
  this duplicitous two-faced thing that they've been doing for 70 years. Yeah. No, I think,
• 14:50
  Maduro being the first in the order of operations
• 14:54
  right after National Security Strategy document or a couple months after.
• 14:58
  And then you look at the imports
• 15:02
  of Venezuelan crude. Yes, maybe the refineries capacity isn't where
• 15:06
  it needs to be or maybe the utilization of the refineries isn't where it needs to be.
• 15:09
  I think if you're going to go attack Iran, it's like,
• 15:13
  okay, we need to show the American people that we have supply coming from somewhere else
• 15:17
  on the back end of this like well while there's this massive disruption then on top of that i
• 15:22
  think the narratives around the straight i think it's become abundantly clear that they were they
• 15:28
  were completely wrong like there was actually oil flowing to the straight um to to a significant degree yes we not right well on crude it looks like we at pre levels Diesel not quite there yet but it is recovering as well
• 15:44
  And I think that's like looking
• 15:46
  and reflecting on everything,
• 15:48
  particularly in the summer and early fall
• 15:51
  and thinking,
• 15:52
  you're always on my shoulder.
• 15:54
  I always had the Tom Luongo land,
• 15:55
  like a little devil or angel.
• 15:57
  I don't know what you would prefer to be.
• 15:59
  Imp of the perverse. If you're if you're if you're channeling your inner Neil Stevenson, then the imp of the perverse is better.
• 16:07
  Right. Go for it. But I mean, you brought the uncary trade and for the longest time, it's like, again, reflecting and really trying to be introspective on my priors.
• 16:20
  One of which I mean, I'm a Bitcoin urban streaming like yields are going to go up.
• 16:22
  That situation is going to blow up. And if you just look at the long end of the yield curve.
• 16:27
  the charts of yields over time.
• 16:31
  It looks like it wants to go into a structural bear market.
• 16:33
  The world can't end.
• 16:35
  It looks like Bissent and crew know they're going to hover higher
• 16:40
  and they're just trying to manage that.
• 16:41
  One thing I've been tracking is the move index for the last six months.
• 16:44
  Yes, it did pop last week, but they were able to basically contain
• 16:49
  the volatility of the yield movements pretty significantly there.
• 16:53
  I guess one last thing I'll just throw out there is it seems like
• 16:56
  when it comes to yields and government bonds across the world it's all relative game like yes
• 17:01
  ours are going higher japan's going higher but if you look at like france and europe um they're
• 17:07
  they're screaming right now so it's like i think that's my perspective right now when it comes to
• 17:11
  sovereign debt is like it's a it's a relative game and i think yes that is that is that's the
• 17:19
  gig no i would agree with you completely and what i'll i'm gonna throw you're in you're in you're in
• 17:24
  the right ballpark because this is where my head has been for the last six months trying to work
• 17:29
  all this, if not three, the four years, right, trying to work all this stuff out. And so,
• 17:33
  you know, let's play some of those stories out. Who can handle the higher cost of capital better,
• 17:44
  the United States or the rest of the world? When you're the issue of the world's reserve currency,
• 17:49
  when you're the issue, when there's a, as Brent Johnson just posted a thing up literally like an
• 17:53
  hour ago on a Twitter feed of the amount of dollar debt that's out there, both currency
• 18:00
  forwards and interest rate derivatives and outright dollar debt.
• 18:03
  I mean, that's $117 trillion.
• 18:05
  And it keeps going up, by the way.
• 18:06
  It hasn't, you know, if we were talking about a de-dollarization story that everybody on
• 18:11
  the quote-unquote brick side of the equation wants to talk about, and that's all horse
• 18:14
  shit, that number would have been going down for the last five years, but it's not.
• 18:20
  It's going up.
• 18:21
  So now let's dig into the things that you just mentioned.
• 18:25
  Let's dig in some deeper on that because there's some really interesting points I want to make relative to that.
• 18:30
  So let's talk about everything in the 10 to 30-year range for all intents and purposes.
• 18:37
  The marginal flow into those areas, into those issuances, are central banks.
• 18:44
  Certainly when it comes to the United States.
• 18:46
  The central banks are the ones buying the long term.
• 18:49
  You can see it's in the TIC report.
• 18:51
  Like they're buying the long-term debt.
• 18:53
  They're not adding to the short-term debt as reserves.
• 18:58
  Go look at the TIC report.
• 18:59
  If you don't believe me, it's right there.
• 19:04
  When you look at the headline flow,
• 19:06
  you'll note when they're trying to run an operation,
• 19:10
  a headline operation, a kind of psyop operation
• 19:13
  around sovereign yields,
• 19:14
  they always quote the 30-year bond blowing out, right?
• 19:17
  they never talk about the 10 because the 10 is like the heart of the yield curve.
• 19:25
  They never talk about the fives and the tens where the liquidity in that space is an order
• 19:29
  of magnitude higher than it is in the 30-year space, right?
• 19:33
  Because there's more tens out there by an order of magnitude than our 30s or whatever
• 19:37
  the numbers are.
• 19:38
  It doesn't matter.
• 19:39
  The size of the potential market is much, much higher in the tens than the 30s.
• 19:43
  So when you want to write a headline and you want to move a market, it's like polymarket.
• 19:46
  You want to write a headline, dump $20 million on some guy to win, nobody to win, nobody Democrat to win in a safe Republican seat, and you can move the odds, right?
• 19:57
  Well, it's the same thing in the 30-year space.
• 19:58
  If you're at the Bank of England and you're worried about losing your trade franchise and what's left of your trade franchise in the United States or Canada or anywhere else, and the United States is on the other side of that trade, well, then you're going to first have bought a shit ton of 30s to be able to dump on the market when it's strategically advantageous.
• 20:16
  to you or when the United States makes a move against you so that you can then dump those bonds,
• 20:23
  get the dollars that you need, unwind whatever currency forwards you have and whatever yen
• 20:28
  carries you're running. Like this is the natural ebb and flow of these assets. And then we get
• 20:33
  caught up in the day-to-day news spam of yields are going higher, yields are going lower. Look,
• 20:38
  long-dated debt and long-dated government debt is, somebody put it this way to me this morning
• 20:44
  on Twitter, they said, look, it's a dying market. We're moving into a treasury
• 20:50
  um, dominated market. We're moving into a stable coin market, which is only gonna be backed by T
• 20:55
  bills. We're not gonna be funded. We're not funding government the same way we did 50 years
• 20:59
  ago. It's a different model. And so while we're moving from one model to the other,
• 21:04
  you're going to watch those markets be used as weapons to re to reprice all the assets.
• 21:13
  And so you're in that, we're just in this like ugly period of central banks fighting amongst
• 21:18
  themselves. And that's fine. Let them fight amongst themselves. I don't care. So, I mean,
• 21:24
  I do care. I'm an American. I don't want to lose. I just know that if let's really play that out.
• 21:31
  So if you take my hypothesis, that's mostly the central banks playing in that space. We have
• 21:37
  oodles of TIC data, which says that the Eurozone, the European zone of control, that would be,
• 21:45
  The Bank of England, its subsidiaries, plus most of Europe, they've accumulated net-net over five years, almost $2 trillion with the long-dated U.S. Treasuries.
• 21:54
  So a lot of 10s, a lot of 30s, a lot of 5s, a lot of 7s, right?
• 21:57
  Okay, well, they bought those at much lower interest rates.
• 22:01
  They bought all those, have a stock of these things at 2%, 2.5%, 3% coupons.
• 22:08
  And now they're going to dump them in the market at 5.7?
• 22:12
  They're going to dump them on the market at 75 cents on the dollar?
• 22:15
  okay and besant understands what he's doing that's why they that's why they screamed at him when he
• 22:21
  said oh i'm gonna i'm gonna up the amount that i'm willing to buy back in the 10 to 30 year space
• 22:25
  yeah because he knows that those bonds are all underwater and he has this pick and choose of
• 22:29
  what he can get rid of of what he can take off the market now i'm going to go through the basic
• 22:33
  math of why this is advantageous for the united states so let's talk about like a 30 year that
• 22:38
  was issued 10 years ago at two and a half percent three percent let's use two percent to make the
• 22:43
  math easy, but you'll understand what I'm talking about when we get down the brass tax.
• 22:47
  So they issue it with a 2% coupon or 2.5% coupon, and it's 10 years old. You're going to pay 25. So
• 22:53
  that means a million dollar bonds can get a payoff, $25,000 in interest every year for the next 20
• 22:58
  years. That's $500,000, right? Or yeah, $25,000, $500,000. That's a future liability against the
• 23:07
  balance sheet of the United States, that $500,000, right? It's a fixed cost. We're going to pay it.
• 23:12
  Oh, and at the end of the loan, at the end of the bond, you're also going to pay back the million.
• 23:16
  So now you're talking about you have a future liability against the United States of $1.5 million against that bond, correct?
• 23:23
  Okay.
• 23:24
  Well, if the Bank of England dumps that thing on the market and you're the buyer on the other side,
• 23:29
  and you're willing to buy that off for $750,000, that million dollar bond for $750,000,
• 23:34
  you neither have to pay the 20 years in interest nor the full coupon value of the bond.
• 23:42
  So now that $1.5 million worth of future liability is a $750,000
• 23:47
  current payment, and the future liability comes off the balance sheet.
• 23:55
  So net-net, the United States saves $750,000, whatever the numbers are.
• 23:59
  I'm just using example numbers here.
• 24:01
  That's the situation.
• 24:03
  If you look at what Vicente has been doing,
• 24:05
  when you go into these treasury buybacks, that's exactly what he's doing.
• 24:08
  He's buying, he's picking and choosing the ones he wants that are the best value, the ones that he knows are going to lower the future and present liabilities of the United States.
• 24:21
  And then he can then, and then that gives him capacity, if necessary, because of that, to go in and issue necessary, issue T-bills to expand the stablecoin market and to issue, you know, short-term credit to finance, you know, for the banks to shoot to the banks and the banks and then issue credit to build these factories and the tire shops that are going to need to be built and the copper mines and all the other rest of it.
• 24:45
  And that's what they're doing.
• 24:48
  And that almost precludes, it almost demands that you do the bear flattener thing that
• 24:56
  they're trying to do, which is to allow, Warsh has to raise its rates a little bit on the
• 25:00
  short end because the money markets are demanding it because, you know, on the short end, Warsh
• 25:05
  raises interest rates, that uncovers new demand for T-bills, right?
• 25:09
  Because that curve is not linear.
• 25:11
  at 3.75% there's x amount of demand for T-bills at 3.75%
• 25:18
  at 4% there's x times three amount of demand for T-bills
• 25:23
  or x times two or whatever the number is
• 25:25
  but it's not linear
• 25:26
  it's not 5% more or 10% more
• 25:30
  whatever the relative rate is
• 25:33
  that we're talking about uncovering
• 25:35
  going from saying maybe there's $40 billion a day
• 25:37
  at 3.75% to $150 billion at four
• 25:40
  That unlocks a lot of liquidity, right?
• 25:44
  So that's the short end of the curve.
• 25:45
  From the long end of the curve,
• 25:46
  you're getting rid of future liabilities.
• 25:47
  And so the bear flattener curve
• 25:49
  is then putting upward pressure on everyone else
• 25:52
  who's in the exact same situation,
• 25:54
  but they don have the fiscal capacity because who buying German buns right They do this or who buying French oats or I like to call them cheese bonds personally but who buying german buns right they do this or who buying right who buying french oats or i like to call them cheese bonds personally but um you know who buying any of
• 26:07
  this stuff that's the thing and that's the game they're playing and that's the real reason for the
• 26:13
  war and that's the real reason why the more iran slash london or brussels or the high table the
• 26:20
  european high table whatever you want to call it try to maintain try to like play this game of
• 26:25
  extend and pretend on this conflict that has been over for months months
• 26:30
  out because they think they're going to win the midterms and then you know put timu obama
• 26:37
  as speaker and impeach trump these people are out of their fucking minds that's not what's going to
• 26:42
  happen so but there you go that's that's my that's my argument at this point and everything else is
• 26:47
  just a chase scene again to invoke the neil stevenson well yeah and my my question is like
• 26:55
  how how long like it feels like particularly in europe they don't have that much time list
• 27:01
  like it's it could be wrong but like i know and i'm very happy to see that uh throughout the course
• 27:07
  of this year um you and matt dines have developed a relationship i've been collabing on podcast
• 27:13
  with people, but I'm sure
• 27:15
  you saw this, but
• 27:17
  when it comes to
• 27:19
  how much longer can Europe hold on?
• 27:22
  It doesn't seem like they don't have a productive
• 27:23
  economy. Their governments are
• 27:25
  getting more restrictive via
• 27:27
  regulations and
• 27:29
  just nanny state stuff.
• 27:31
  People are pissed off, obviously, in France.
• 27:34
  That's the thing. Matt's tweet
• 27:36
  from earlier this week, Tim Boyle hat boiler
• 27:37
  warning. So take it with a grain of salt,
• 27:40
  given the fiscal and bond market situation in France
• 27:42
  incentive for its leaders would align with allowing the sort of social unrest, like in
• 27:47
  the original post below, to take place.
• 27:49
  If you want to take a deeply cynical view, one might even suspect this type of publicly
• 27:53
  subversive activity might be actively encouraged.
• 27:57
  We have riot false flags happening in France as their bond market goes to shit.
• 28:03
  Yeah, no.
• 28:04
  And shout out to Matt.
• 28:06
  Matt's a great powerhouse.
• 28:07
  He came up the Cornerstone in Calgary earlier in the year of March when we were up there.
• 28:13
  And I got to introduce himself.
• 28:14
  He's a patron.
• 28:15
  He's been a patron for a while and introduced himself.
• 28:18
  And we just sat there like for the entire evening, entire evening, like after Cornerstone was over.
• 28:25
  We were there with Matt Aro's wife, Cynthia Chung, trying to explain to her what was going on.
• 28:29
  He and I were just ripping back and forth.
• 28:30
  We started at 9 o'clock.
• 28:31
  We went till 3.30 in the morning.
• 28:33
  And then since then, it's just been a big bromance ever since then.
• 28:36
  You should see this stuff we talk about on our private Slack server for the Gold Coast and Guns private Slack server.
• 28:43
  The man has been just an absolute powerhouse.
• 28:46
  And I'm like, after about two or three weeks of him doing that, I'm like, I've got to get you inserted into my podcast, my podcast stream.
• 28:57
  So I got him on Tommy and Rich, and we did run him on my podcast.
• 29:01
  I did it absolutely on purpose.
• 29:03
  I'm like, oh, no, this guy needs to be in the public eye.
• 29:06
  because he is so good.
• 29:08
  And he understands this stuff far better than I do.
• 29:10
  I understand the geopolitics of it.
• 29:12
  I made the call that France was going to be the weak link
• 29:15
  on the European debt situation about nine months ago
• 29:19
  when I really, I started adding, I don't know why I did,
• 29:23
  but one day I just said, you know,
• 29:25
  I'm going to go look at the French-Italian spread
• 29:27
  and see what that looks like.
• 29:28
  Because I was already tracking German-Italian,
• 29:31
  German-American, and others, right,
• 29:33
  in the U.S. and British-American 10-year bond spreads,
• 29:36
  but I started looking at the French-Italian one
• 29:38
  because I wanted to see what was going on there.
• 29:42
  And when I started mapping that to the operations in Iran,
• 29:47
  dude, it's like night, day.
• 29:50
  Like the volatility on that spread stopped the day they ended the 12-day war last summer,
• 29:59
  and then it's just been basically a straight line down except for one small blip.
• 30:03
  right before the war where they were trying to shore up the French bond markets. And then the
• 30:07
  war came in and destroyed it because there's a huge, the one thing we should have all, we've
• 30:11
  always been missing about this Iran story. I got focused on London, obviously, because there is a
• 30:17
  long standing relationship between Iran, its oil and London, but there's also a very strong
• 30:25
  relationship between Iran, the IRGC and France. Right. And I've always known that. And it was in
• 30:34
  the back of my, it was in the back of my head. And I started watching this. I'm like, oh,
• 30:37
  the French bond market. And, you know, cause the, the, to make it, to make it short, my, my,
• 30:44
  my subscribers were already heard this a thousand times, but for everybody else in the audience,
• 30:48
  the long story short is I started watching the U S German spread as a means by which to look at
• 30:54
  the two different safe haven trades of the various geographic areas.
• 30:59
  So the German Bund, the safe haven asset of Germany, of Europe.
• 31:03
  So when there's crisis in Europe, everybody runs into the German Bund.
• 31:08
  The money that not going to leave Europe right And the rest of the world runs into the U market So if that spread is rising and falling it telling you where everybody is you know where everybody head
• 31:20
  is. You believe in free markets, which I don't. I believe in free markets, but I don't believe we
• 31:25
  have free markets. Let me clarify that since we have central bank dominated markets. So in an age
• 31:30
  where Christine Lagarde is actively doing yield curve control at the ECB, which she's been doing
• 31:36
  for four years which no one talks about but she's still doing it then the u.s german spread is going
• 31:43
  to be managed by her in particular ways and then if you start charting that and you start like
• 31:50
  noting changes in those spreads i chart both the german two and the ten by the way just for a
• 31:56
  variety of reasons um and then you tie that to specific calendar events big geopolitical calendar
• 32:02
  events. This is the interesting thing that pops out. I'm like, well, she's rigging the German
• 32:07
  market, but she's rigging the German market to keep everybody else on the periphery from blowing
• 32:11
  out. Because if Europe's markets are anchored by Germany, then if she can control the German
• 32:17
  spread, the German yield, then she can control everybody else's yield, right?
• 32:23
  So then I'm like, well, okay, well, let's see if that's working.
• 32:27
  so let's chart the german italian spread and see what happens and lo and behold every time there's
• 32:35
  a big geopolitical event and the u.s german spread blows out towards the germans the german italian
• 32:41
  spread blows out because she's sitting on the german spread she's sitting on the german yield
• 32:47
  but she can't sit on the italian yield at the same time so the italian yield blows out that
• 32:52
  the italian spread relative to germany blows out eight to ten base when you just see these like
• 32:56
  It's like little heart attack, like heartbeats on the chart.
• 33:00
  They're everywhere.
• 33:01
  It's a general trend down, but the little spikes that last two, three, four days, whatever the length of the crisis is.
• 33:07
  Now, once you do that one, then you track the French Italian spread and you see the general trend of how much the other leg in the tripod that makes up the core capital base of Europe.
• 33:22
  And you're like, oh, the French Italian spread is doing this.
• 33:25
  So as Italy, up until the war, Italy's yield spread versus Germany was dropping.
• 33:32
  So what was really happening as Maloney was getting control of power in Italy and was winning political battles.
• 33:41
  And as Trump was coming back to power, we watched the Italian-German spread drop, meaning capital was preferentially moving into Italy over Germany.
• 33:51
  And then at the same time, we were watching the same thing happen between France and Italy as well.
• 33:57
  So it's like of the three legs, global capital was choosing Italy first over the other two.
• 34:04
  That was the interesting part.
• 34:06
  The war interrupted all of that and sort of blowing things up left and right.
• 34:11
  And now all I can do is watch the U.S.-German spread as Lagarde attempting desperately to hold the entire European bond sector together.
• 34:22
  And she's reached her point.
• 34:23
  This is to go a circle all the way back to what you just said about them running out of time.
• 34:26
  In the last two weeks, the U.S.-German 10-year spread has gone from negative 1.5, with Germany trading a point and a half below American debt, to 1.8.
• 34:36
  Like, it's blown way out.
• 34:38
  The German-Italian spread is blown out 30 basis points.
• 34:40
  She is sitting hard on the German tenure at 3.5%.
• 34:44
  She cannot let it go any higher.
• 34:47
  And she's running out and she's got no borrowing capacity out of Japan because the Japanese keep raising interest rates and allowing their long end to rise.
• 34:55
  So there's no carry trade left for her to go play and play the game with, or even worse, for the Bank of England to do it on her behalf, which is what was going on.
• 35:03
  That's another side of the story.
• 35:05
  Again, if you're a GG&G subscriber, I go over the shit every Wednesday and every Sunday on the market reports.
• 35:10
  Everybody's tired of me talking about it.
• 35:12
  But what's clear is that she has reached that moment where they can't rig the currency markets anymore.
• 35:23
  They can't rig the Euro JPY to pay for the Euro Yen cross to pay for the yield curve to try to freeze the yield.
• 35:35
  and they have to, we're at that point
• 35:38
  where you can either save your bond market
• 35:39
  or you can save your currency, but you can't save both.
• 35:42
  And that's why the euro is breaking down.
• 35:45
  When Besson intervened in the intervention,
• 35:48
  it began the process of breaking the euro yen
• 35:51
  out of the band that they have held it in.
• 35:53
  Between 181 and 186 and the euro yen crossed
• 35:56
  for over a year.
• 35:59
  Like, so since Trump, in fact,
• 36:01
  since Trump started, put the tariffs on,
• 36:05
  It's been a very, very tight band.
• 36:08
  They got it up into that band and they held it there.
• 36:10
  And it's incredibly complicated how they've been doing it.
• 36:12
  I haven't even mapped it all,
• 36:14
  but just to tell you that that's what they were doing
• 36:15
  in the minute it dropped below 180
• 36:17
  on a weekly closing basis, I'm like, we're gonna do it.
• 36:20
  And they used to watch them try to pump it up into the close every Friday And then eventually well now we trading at 176 on euro yen cross The euro is at The pound is at 131 or 132 and crashing And now we getting to watch
• 36:33
  the process of whether or not
• 36:34
  the Bank of England
• 36:35
  is going to leave the Germans,
• 36:38
  the Italians, the ECB,
• 36:39
  and the French
• 36:40
  and try and save itself.
• 36:42
  That's part of what's going on as well.
• 36:44
  Because if you notice
• 36:44
  at the last cycle of rate hikes,
• 36:49
  what two central banks
• 36:50
  didn't raise interest rates?
• 36:52
  england canada it's a holy own subsidiary so everybody else raised yeah australia
• 37:03
  so australia raised last week everybody everybody everybody raised except england and canada because
• 37:08
  they're trying desperately to hold the to to hold it and the us uk spread collapsed like seven basis
• 37:14
  points last night it was crazy then it blew out this morning to 16 basis points as the entire
• 37:19
  market. They just did a massive intervention over the last couple of days, and it lasted 48 hours.
• 37:24
  Unlike Besson's interventions, which fundamentally broke and changed the direction on the markets,
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• 40:04
  That's like how much, again, like how much Mark Carney is, we've talked about this before,
• 40:11
  but it's such an obvious op.
• 40:14
  The fact that he's the prime minister of Canada
• 40:16
  is one of the most laughable things.
• 40:18
  Well, his job is just to oversee the liquidation
• 40:23
  of what's left of Canada.
• 40:24
  They know that Trump is coming for Canada.
• 40:27
  They know it.
• 40:28
  That's why they installed Carney.
• 40:29
  That's why he got the Greenland deal done.
• 40:32
  That's why he got the Panama Canal deal done.
• 40:34
  That's why he went after Venezuela.
• 40:35
  That's why we're just going to wait the Cubans out.
• 40:39
  Okay?
• 40:39
  We don't have to do anything at this point, so wait them out.
• 40:43
  And then Canada is the next one on the list.
• 40:45
  So what do you do if you're Mark Carney and you were sent by the globalists to do this?
• 40:54
  You pick a trade war with the United States.
• 40:56
  You try and pick a real war.
• 40:57
  He's acting just like Zelensky was acting in Ukraine.
• 41:01
  But the big thing that he's doing is he's trying desperately to clear the title of all the lands.
• 41:06
  He's trying to make relationships and agreements and treaties and whatnot and trade deals that when Trump goes to deal with this problem, he's going to have 10 times the problem that he had previously and ensure that certain entities that exist like Brookfield and all the all the private equity groups that he represents on behalf of.
• 41:28
  You could argue the king of England.
• 41:29
  You could argue the high table, whatever you want to call it.
• 41:32
  Right.
• 41:32
  He represents them.
• 41:33
  And what he's trying to do is shore up their cash flow from Canada.
• 41:38
  They're part of it as much as possible.
• 41:39
  and queer the title on that's what i think what do you think that private credit hiccup that like
• 41:44
  with mark walters at the center of it from earlier was oh that's part of it i think i think matt's
• 41:48
  got i think matt is better the guy who better understands what's going on there but matt's the
• 41:52
  one that's been at dines has been the one they're talking about been making that connection that
• 41:56
  there's a brook there's something very hinkly very very hinky about all these guys buying sports
• 42:03
  teams sports betting sites the fact that like professional sports has has been you know he hit
• 42:09
  its peak in terms of revenues ages ago and now we've got nothing more than you know professional
• 42:13
  sports calivized events or nothing but advertisement for the betting markets like i was watching the ufc
• 42:19
  thing with ian burlingame when i was in boise and it was like that's all they talked about but the
• 42:23
  whole thing was just the betting you know it was just it was like watching an episode of the old
• 42:27
  max headroom show with like you know with with the with with the the the live ticker of the government
• 42:34
  approval ratings going on the screen at the bottom.
• 42:38
  It's retarded watching this whole thing.
• 42:40
  I think it's all just one last gasp to try and figure out how to continue to keep the
• 42:45
  illicit money flow going as we shut down USAID.
• 42:49
  We're putting pressure on the cartels.
• 42:50
  We're doing this.
• 42:51
  We're taking Iran off the board.
• 42:53
  We're sanctioning Hong Kong banks for the first time ever.
• 42:55
  There's a lot of shit happening here.
• 42:57
  And so when you start drying up all those bits of capital, and these guys are these channels,
• 43:04
  and these guys are levered in any way and the trade goes against them and they can't move their
• 43:09
  capital out they're fucked and they got to sell it and they got a fire sale you know assets left
• 43:14
  right in order to you know make the margin call and i think that that's part of this game
• 43:19
  yeah so i mean speaking of the game and focusing on the treasury too what are your thoughts on
• 43:24
  judy shelton being brought in i love it i love it it's the most telegraphed move of all time was
• 43:29
  she going to go to the fed no obviously not but just they they locked down that they weren't going
• 43:33
  allow her to go to the Fed. So they move her into treasury. And clearly the situation there,
• 43:40
  and this is going to be a long-term play, Besson's under no time pressure here to revalue gold,
• 43:47
  right? Higher. He's not. He's openly said this, but he's going to because we have gold.
• 43:54
  The rest of the world has gold and England and Canada do not. They have gold in the ground in
• 43:59
  Canada, but gold in the ground is you can, you know, gold in the ground is only defensible if
• 44:05
  you can control the government. Well, if you don't control the government in Canada is trying to break
• 44:09
  up and under and openly, you know, the Albertans within a year or two are going to finally like
• 44:17
  realize that their best bet is to just openly ask for a political asylum from the United States and
• 44:22
  become a territory. That's like the, do you want, you guys want to win. That's the way to do it.
• 44:26
  and then the rest of Western Canada will fall in line.
• 44:33
  What would Canada's response to that even be?
• 44:35
  They'd be like, they're not going to get a war with us.
• 44:38
  They wouldn't be able to do anything, right?
• 44:42
  With what?
• 44:43
  I've talked to Canadians about this.
• 44:45
  They were laughable.
• 44:47
  What do we do?
• 44:47
  We've put a couple of M1 Abrams on the Trans-Canada Highway
• 44:50
  and called the whole Western Canada ours.
• 44:52
  What are they going to do?
• 44:54
  All their assets are our assets.
• 44:56
  Like they don't have military assets.
• 44:58
  They have our assets.
• 45:00
  Like they're going to do the same thing that they were trying to do with Greenland,
• 45:03
  which is they knew that if we had permanent access and control
• 45:07
  and they didn't have final say over what assets we could put in Greenland,
• 45:12
  which is the point of the Greenland agreement,
• 45:16
  which is that the United States, for all intents and purposes,
• 45:18
  is a permanent lease on the defense of Greenland.
• 45:21
  We can do whatever we got.
• 45:22
  We have final say over what goes on the continent or on the island.
• 45:28
  That deal was cut, by the way, not with the government of Denmark, but with the king of Denmark.
• 45:34
  That's very important.
• 45:37
  You had the monarchy stepping up in Spain, king of Spain, stepping up saying, I'm going to do my monarchal duty to protect the borders.
• 45:45
  All the old.
• 45:46
  This is an EM Burlingame.
• 45:48
  This is the conversation EM and I had when I was out in Boise.
• 45:50
  We didn't record it.
• 45:52
  We talked about it, and he's been talking about it here and there on the podcast he's been doing.
• 45:56
  I hardly recommend everybody listen to him.
• 45:58
  You don't have to agree with him, but you should at least consider the perspective that that.
• 46:03
  And I will paraphrase and try and do my my best impression here is to say, look.
• 46:10
  The titles for all these lands have been weird since the glorious revolution, since the Democratic, the quote unquote Democratic takeover and the marginalization of the monarchs.
• 46:19
  Yes, of course, at the end of the day, might makes right, and whoever is in charge of and has the, whoever has the army over the land, like you own, you know, possessions nine tenths of the law, right?
• 46:34
  What's America's, what's the dollar backed by?
• 46:37
  The United States military.
• 46:38
  Okay, let's not kid ourselves.
• 46:39
  But from a legal perspective and from a how do we fix all of this in a way that is satisfactory to everybody such that we can walk back to a world where things were cleaner We have to go back to the 16th century and all the land 16th 17th
• 47:02
  centuries, where all the monarchs actually owned all the land, that land was taken away from them,
• 47:06
  put under the administration of these democratically elected governments and
• 47:11
  parliaments, blah, blah, blah, blah, but they still are title. But the king still has title.
• 47:17
  Like the king of England still owns Canada.
• 47:20
  Okay.
• 47:21
  That's it's titled.
• 47:23
  It's in their constitution.
• 47:24
  It's there.
• 47:24
  It's Canada as a country.
• 47:26
  It's still British North America as owned by the king.
• 47:29
  Right.
• 47:30
  So that's part of the negotiation.
• 47:32
  And that's all Ian is saying is, or at least what I gleaned from it, which is that by having the kings be at the center of the resolution process and by Trump going and meeting with all the kings,
• 47:47
  You'll notice how he's met with all the kings of Europe.
• 47:50
  He's treated them all very well.
• 47:51
  He's gone through the pomp and circumstance and all of that.
• 47:54
  I think that's an important point.
• 47:56
  It's subtle.
• 47:57
  You don't have to buy this argument.
• 47:58
  I talked to Dexter White about this.
• 48:00
  He just said, that's all bullshit.
• 48:01
  Mike, you may be right.
• 48:03
  He may be completely right.
• 48:05
  But at least we have to go through the process of thinking about it in these terms.
• 48:10
  And then we'll see how it plays out.
• 48:12
  Because if it plays out the way he is talking about it, then clearly at some point, all the
• 48:16
  kings are going to step up, overthrow these, or be given the opportunity through the United
• 48:22
  States' ability to project power to say, you know, these are the people in charge, not these
• 48:28
  undemocratically elected, chosen, you know, pretenders to the throne. And then we're going
• 48:36
  to work out the title to all these lands, and we're going to fix all this shit. This is, by the
• 48:41
  way a century-long process this is not something that's going to happen
• 48:44
  amar if that is in case is in fact what's going on um if you look at the domestic armies of
• 48:52
  european nations like they're not they're not sure i mean look what's happening in france like
• 48:56
  another perspective on france right comparing it to matt dynes who's like oh maybe like they're
• 49:01
  inciting the the riots because their their uh yield curve is getting out of control their
• 49:08
  Bob markets imploding and they want to instill martial law to restore order or whatever,
• 49:13
  use the riots as an excuse.
• 49:14
  Another way to look at the riots is like the French government doesn't have to leverage
• 49:19
  violence.
• 49:20
  They let a lot of people come in, particularly in remote rural areas and take over.
• 49:26
  That's a possibility.
• 49:28
  The other possibility is that they use that as an excuse to then steal everybody's savings,
• 49:32
  steal everybody's pension and do the military build-out, which is the way they've been talking.
• 49:37
  Right.
• 49:37
  oh we have to go to we have to be prepared to go to war with russia in 2029 or 2030 like
• 49:41
  the russians are not going to stand for that and you don't tell everybody i guess like the first
• 49:47
  rule of warfare is you don't tell everybody when you're going to attack them like you know or when
• 49:51
  you're going to go to war with them so clearly these democratic governments it's actually speaks
• 49:56
  to em's point right which is that in order for these kings or these old monarchies to be able
• 50:02
  to reassert themselves, the time is now while the civilian governments don't have any legitimacy
• 50:08
  and any power, right? And they don't have any standing militaries to contain the violence
• 50:13
  and the chaos that they've invited into the situation. So you could argue that our window
• 50:22
  to affect these changes, to start the ball rolling, remember, this is not a step function,
• 50:29
  we're not going to turn around tomorrow and Europe's going to be turned into a bunch of
• 50:32
  monarchies again, that's not what's going to happen. But in order to get the ball rolling
• 50:35
  downhill towards that eventual outcome, you got to get it up over the peak and up and over and get
• 50:40
  it getting enough momentum going so that it's unstoppable. And I think that is the better way
• 50:48
  of looking at it. And I think that's the other reason why they're trying desperately to stop
• 50:51
  Trump from winning the midterms. Because again, they know, and this is the points that Susan
• 50:59
  I talked about Susan before we hit record that to Susan's point that she's made multiple times,
• 51:07
  which is that Chatham House keeps telling you, we can't survive two terms of Donald Trump.
• 51:12
  We can't do it. By the time he's done doing what he's going to do with two full terms,
• 51:18
  our old model will have been broken to a point where it will not be recoverable.
• 51:24
  We'll still have some agency. We'll still play around the edges. But for the most part,
• 51:27
  America is just going to steamroll us.
• 51:30
  And whatever
• 51:31
  America wants to do, America's going to do.
• 51:34
  And that's the way Trump
• 51:35
  is acting right now. And he's not acting like a guy
• 51:37
  who's worried about the midterms at all.
• 51:39
  Because really,
• 51:41
  the midterms don't matter
• 51:42
  in that
• 51:45
  grand scheme of things.
• 51:47
  It does not matter at all. All they can do is
• 51:49
  delay what's going to happen.
• 51:51
  But at the same time,
• 51:53
  they do matter because it would
• 51:55
  accelerate the process
• 51:58
  of getting up and over that mountain and making this an inevitability and an inevitability with as few people wind up getting dead as possible with them burning as little of the world to the ground in
• 52:10
  the process possible. And so, um, that's why I, I, that's why I want to see, obviously that's why I
• 52:20
  want to see Trump win the midterms because the political, socio, the socio-political and economic
• 52:27
  benefits are off the charts, what it will unleash on his end to be able to unlock the
• 52:35
  wealth of the United States that's been written to zero over the course of decades.
• 52:41
  This is why he's talking about these $5,000 dividends.
• 52:43
  He's not saying he's going to print a trillion dollars and hand it out to people.
• 52:47
  He's saying, I'm going to be able, with a full Republican, real Republican majority,
• 52:52
  I can change the fundamental nature of this country in such a way that I'm going to unlock
• 52:57
  a hundred trillion dollars worth of assets.
• 52:58
  And it's only right and proper that I pay you.
• 53:00
  You know, I give you 1% of it as a, as a, as a finder's fee for, you know, in fact,
• 53:06
  a finder's fee for, for doing so.
• 53:08
  And then we're going to take that a hundred trillion dollars in assets.
• 53:10
  We're going to, we're going to develop them into, you know, a quadrillion dollars worth
• 53:13
  of assets.
• 53:13
  And you guys are going to get a 5% stake in that going forward.
• 53:16
  And we're not going to have to pay income back.
• 53:17
  That's the way he's thinking.
• 53:19
  Freaks look at me.
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  I'm glowing.
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  cheaper than health insurance. We were on Cobra as a family of three when I left my last job
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  I believe, $700 a month. It's significantly cheaper. They're going to negotiate prices
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  slash bitcoin check it out well this is one of the things i was talking about with susan which is
• 55:45
  uh it's just so confusing it's like why does he message it this way i feel like the messaging
• 55:52
  of the administration is not aligned with because i mean if you sell that vision i think people
• 55:59
  would get on board but other other people see the five thousand dollar dividend checks they're like
• 56:03
  he's just trying to buy our votes.
• 56:05
  Yeah, I know.
• 56:07
  And he's got 25 days, 26 days to make that sale.
• 56:12
  And I think that he may make that sale
• 56:15
  before this is all over.
• 56:17
  Remember, Trump made a lot of moves in 2016,
• 56:20
  the last week or two of the election cycle.
• 56:23
  I don't know if you remember back that far.
• 56:24
  I did.
• 56:25
  I remember watching it really carefully
• 56:26
  because I was not on board with him at all.
• 56:30
  I was still like in my law retarding phase
• 56:33
  of don't vote, it only encourages them.
• 56:36
  And I only made the choice to pull the lever for Trump
• 56:41
  like three days before the election, by the way.
• 56:46
  And I just didn't believe it.
• 56:50
  Like, I didn't believe that.
• 56:51
  But then he dropped a number of things all at once
• 56:55
  that said to me, okay, you know,
• 56:58
  what's the worst that can happen?
• 57:00
  I'm going to get Hillary Clinton as president.
• 57:01
  is the, is, and that to me is the worst thing possible.
• 57:04
  This guy could at least be hilarious, right?
• 57:07
  And I think between now and then he got at least three or four big things up his sleeve he going to do Um but he as always you always waiting for your opponent to make the first move They made their I think they made their first move the other day with this this thing up
• 57:24
  in Ray, uh, rare ford, um, up in England, you know, with the, the, uh, the potential
• 57:31
  attack on RAF reverend.
• 57:34
  Um, and, uh, the way that British government handled it like, Oh yeah, our bad.
• 57:39
  It was just a bunch of kids having fun.
• 57:40
  like bullshit those guys were all mi6 assets they were jacked yeah there's a picture of them with
• 57:45
  their shirts all over there yeah they weren't kids bullshit you guys you guys were all sas and
• 57:49
  and or ukrainian special forces or whatever you were some british fucking carve out and you were
• 57:56
  going to leave a whole bunch of russian passports at the scene of the crime let's not kid ourselves
• 57:59
  because you wanted the casus belli you needed to attack something that would force the united
• 58:04
  States into a casus belli per hour military doctrine. That's what that was. And I think it
• 58:14
  was going to be timed with, I still say that I think it was going to be timed with the first
• 58:18
  Monday of October, which just passed. That's the perfect time that they always pull the shit.
• 58:22
  So, and then once that was blown up, they couldn't attack the markets. There's a hundred different
• 58:27
  ways to attack currency and bond market. There's, there's, there's, there's, there's, you know,
• 58:32
  there's nuclear there's financial nuclear weapons everywhere they can go off at a moment's notice
• 58:36
  right and like i i don't have to like paint you a particular picture on this but we've gone through
• 58:44
  this we've watched archegos capital we've watched credit suisse we've watched silicon valley bank
• 58:48
  we've watched we've watched ftx we've watched all of these things like this is not hard i mean these
• 58:52
  people stole fanny and fucking freddy on a on a bullshit argument back in 2008 like this let's not
• 58:58
  kid ourselves like and then they blew up lehman brothers to cover their fucking thievery
• 59:02
  like that's what they did and then they installed obama and locked you know our birthright away from
• 59:09
  us for the last 20 freaking years like fuck they can do whatever they want on the first monday of
• 59:13
  october okay first day first trading day q4 easy to do everybody moves in the tax law selling blah
• 59:19
  blah blah blah start the process 24 hours later blow up a b1 bomber or whatever in in the uk
• 59:26
  playing it on the russians world war three that was their plan it got i i mean i could be wrong
• 59:35
  about that it could be my fan fiction but it's better fan fiction than the shit that's been
• 59:38
  you know been promulgated by everybody else out there sorry so i haven't heard anything better
• 59:44
  than that like no it's just a bunch of bunch of dudes and and oh they didn't mean any harm
• 59:48
  bunch of dudes just got together like yeah let's go blow up a p2 bomber yeah let's just go do that
• 59:54
  Because, you know, that's what that's, you know, that's what fucking Brits do when they when they have an extra pint.
• 59:59
  I'm surprised that Andy Burnham didn't turn around and go, see, they were they were drunk.
• 1:00:03
  And we now need to shut down more pubs, local pubs to make sure that that never happens again.
• 1:00:08
  I didn't even do that. They didn't even use that crisis to get rid of more pubs because they've been trying to shut all the pubs down in Britain.
• 1:00:14
  Because they know damn well that that's where revolution started on in the taverns and the pubs.
• 1:00:18
  They know this. Old America, dudes, that's where it started here in America.
• 1:00:24
  So we're started the first time that they lost control of shit, right?
• 1:00:28
  Yeah.
• 1:00:29
  I mean, and leaning back into midterms, you say it doesn't matter because they'll just
• 1:00:34
  use the executive function as he has been.
• 1:00:37
  They can slow him down trying to do impeachments.
• 1:00:40
  Like how, I mean, as it pertains to midterms, I think on the right, there's a contingent
• 1:00:46
  who are completely dismayed.
• 1:00:48
  Like we're not voting.
• 1:00:49
  I'm not going to do it.
• 1:00:50
  He hasn't been following up on his promises.
• 1:00:51
  and
• 1:00:53
  there's a lot of people
• 1:00:55
  dejected out, frog Twitter, very much against
• 1:00:57
  this administration.
• 1:00:59
  And
• 1:00:59
  they say it doesn't matter,
• 1:01:04
  but
• 1:01:04
  what is the threat?
• 1:01:08
  How big is the threat of impeachment?
• 1:01:09
  If the Democrats...
• 1:01:11
  Zero. Zero. They're not going to take
• 1:01:13
  the Senate.
• 1:01:15
  The Republicans... I mean, I could see
• 1:01:17
  a weird outcome here. Don't get me wrong.
• 1:01:19
  I'm not...
• 1:01:20
  I'm not going to tell you that I think the midterms were in a bag or anything.
• 1:01:25
  I'm not going to say, I don't have a crystal ball.
• 1:01:28
  But what I will say is the following.
• 1:01:31
  Enough has been done to shore up voting rights in enough of the places.
• 1:01:36
  The early voting numbers were all terrible for the Democrats.
• 1:01:40
  They're not going to take the Senate.
• 1:01:42
  They can publish as many fake polls as they want that Susan Collins is going to lose in Maine,
• 1:01:47
  and then she's going to win by 15 points again,
• 1:01:49
  like eight points or whatever she does gonna win like they did this the last time she came in 2020
• 1:01:54
  like seth cashel was hilarious somebody um posted up well all the polls can't be wrong and then he
• 1:02:00
  like shows up the rcp average of the pre-polling for collins last election is like collins minus
• 1:02:08
  six collins minus eight collins minus 12 collins minus nine collins wins by 8.6 yeah yeah like yes
• 1:02:14
  they can actually all be wrong. The polls are not, you know, they're not real.
• 1:02:20
  I think that we can have a weird situation where the Republicans wind up with 55 seats in the
• 1:02:25
  House or in the Senate, I mean, and then, you know, the Democrats wind up with a two
• 1:02:30
  seat majority in the House.
• 1:02:31
  And then it's split.
• 1:02:32
  And it doesn't matter.
• 1:02:33
  And that 55 seat majority in the Senate will be a real 55 seats because Mitch McConnell
• 1:02:38
  will be gone.
• 1:02:39
  Tom Tillis will be gone.
• 1:02:41
  Bill Cassidy will be gone.
• 1:02:43
  John Cornyn will be gone.
• 1:02:44
  Like, there's a bunch of rhinos that are gone.
• 1:02:47
  Trump got four, three scallops, four scallops in the, you know, in the, in the primary.
• 1:02:56
  Now, Darlene Graham's going to win in South Carolina.
• 1:02:58
  Like, it's not horrible.
• 1:03:00
  She's going to be completely loyal to Trump.
• 1:03:02
  Like, you know, so.
• 1:03:05
  And the political winds will have shifted enough, especially in the Senate, where these guys are going to have to like the squishy ones are going to have to, you know, play ball because they're not going to be able to pull their Fredo routine and and betray him because he's going to put the gavosh on them.
• 1:03:21
  And so I just don't, I'm not, you know, the stat I keep looking at over and over and coming back over and over and over again, which is it's unprecedented in our lifetime.
• 1:03:33
  17% of the Senate is going to turn over in January.
• 1:03:37
  That's a lot.
• 1:03:39
  But, you know, just from, you know, primaries, retirements, blah, blah, blah, blah.
• 1:03:45
  And so that, again, making the pastest prologue argument about how American politics works is normally the right framework.
• 1:03:57
  Don't get me wrong.
• 1:03:57
  I'm not against using that as your base case, but we're not in the pastest prologue.
• 1:04:04
  We're in a much different place than we've ever been.
• 1:04:06
  And again, because of the particulars of this election cycle, because of who's retiring and everything.
• 1:04:13
  I think it's just a different thing.
• 1:04:14
  So I want to believe that it's going to be a quote-unquote Trump landslide.
• 1:04:22
  I'd like to believe it.
• 1:04:23
  I may be wrong.
• 1:04:24
  I don't care.
• 1:04:25
  That's what I want.
• 1:04:26
  And I'm not going to lie.
• 1:04:30
  Like, if you want that to happen, go out and make it happen.
• 1:04:34
  It's not that hard, folks.
• 1:04:35
  Like, your focus determines your reality.
• 1:04:37
  If you look at all the polls, the polls would determine your reality for you.
• 1:04:41
  You look at, you know, the bots on Twitter telling you that, you know, we're all doomed and the dollar is going to fail.
• 1:04:46
  Well, then why is the dollar index at 102 and climbing?
• 1:04:49
  You know, I just looked at the monthly chart of the dollar index, which is a great example of the health of the euro dollar system versus the U.S. dollar.
• 1:04:55
  Because it's literally the euro dollar index, right?
• 1:04:58
  The top five currencies in the U.S. dollar index are all euro dollar currencies.
• 1:05:01
  No Chinese won, though.
• 1:05:03
  You know what I mean?
• 1:05:03
  And every time it's tried to sell off in the last, you know, after Trump took power in the early part of 2025, and it was a big, and we depreciated the dollar.
• 1:05:18
  And then since the tariffs have gone into place, it's always, whenever it's popped back up, it's always turned a reversal signal to the upside.
• 1:05:26
  meaning it's always engulfed the previous down bar the month from the previous bar closed above
• 1:05:33
  the high and then set things in motion and then it gets pressed suppressed and it keeps popping up
• 1:05:37
  five major bullish reversals in the last 15 months of trading on the u.s dollar index and we finally
• 1:05:43
  get the break above 101 which i think bestin is now going to all he's going to have to manage he
• 1:05:48
  might not like it but he's going to have to manage it because again the europeans have the choice
• 1:05:53
  They have agency that can choose to protect their bond markets or they can pick their currency.
• 1:05:57
  They're choosing their bond markets.
• 1:05:59
  So that means that the currencies have to devalue.
• 1:06:03
  The U.S. dollar is going to get too strong at some point, but it's not too strong yet.
• 1:06:07
  But, you know, when we get back to 110, 115 on the U.S. dollar index, everybody's going to have a lot of soul searching to do.
• 1:06:13
  And that's and if Trump wins the midterms, it's going to just be a big U.S. party.
• 1:06:19
  And the world is going to be really fucking angry with us.
• 1:06:22
  and I'm going to be happy.
• 1:06:23
  I'm just going to sit there and crow and cackle like I did for three weeks
• 1:06:27
  after he won the first time in 2016.
• 1:06:29
  Did I ever tell you that?
• 1:06:30
  Like, literally, in 2016, after that election, I would just,
• 1:06:33
  I get up in the morning, I would be writing articles and do the thing.
• 1:06:37
  I would, like, get up from my laptop, walk over into the kitchen,
• 1:06:40
  make coffee, and just randomly start cackling.
• 1:06:43
  Like, for three weeks, I just randomly go,
• 1:06:46
  Donald Trump's fucking president.
• 1:06:48
  Oh, my God, this is hilarious.
• 1:06:49
  Like, I had to, fuck you, bitches.
• 1:06:51
  like i was this is i it was and it just yeah no for weeks on end after the auction it took me it
• 1:06:58
  took me like three to four weeks to stop just randomly cackling so you know it's like the
• 1:07:04
  reverse grief of when you lose a parent you know and you're randomly like breaking the tears
• 1:07:08
  on a regular basis well in my case it would be my dad not my mom but yeah like it was that but
• 1:07:13
  in the reverse like this is this is the best thing ever like you know yeah the uh well you mentioned
• 1:07:21
  to you on not being included in that topic.
• 1:07:23
  I care, but that brings up another thing that like
• 1:07:25
  become more apparent to me again, checking priors.
• 1:07:27
  It's like this whole
• 1:07:29
  K-Fob of the US for China existential.
• 1:07:32
  I mean, it seems existential battle
• 1:07:34
  heading towards World War three in this fight over AI I mean I think the last month has shown that we more willing to work with China and just say hey you take care of the East we take care of the West and let get along and figure out how to do it
• 1:07:48
  Yeah, I don't think that's – I mean, it's – don't get me wrong.
• 1:07:55
  It's not going to be a rosy relationship or anything.
• 1:07:58
  But it's not going to be a perfectly adversarial one.
• 1:08:05
  Like Zeke said, we don't have to be adversaries.
• 1:08:08
  We can be rivals.
• 1:08:09
  We don't have to be adversaries.
• 1:08:11
  We don't have to fall into.
• 1:08:13
  He actually, I think him invoking the Thucydides trap,
• 1:08:17
  saying we can avoid it, was a big.
• 1:08:19
  Because Thucydides trap is a bunch of bullshit
• 1:08:22
  that Henry Kissinger and Grant Allison made up in the 70s.
• 1:08:25
  It's a bunch of bullshit.
• 1:08:26
  It doesn't even exist.
• 1:08:29
  It's not even like what happened with Thucydides.
• 1:08:31
  Like they literally, they made up a bunch of bullshit,
• 1:08:34
  that gave it a name and that just, you know, you know,
• 1:08:38
  intoned it from on high that it's some verity of historical precedents.
• 1:08:42
  Like, go fuck yourselves, guys.
• 1:08:44
  Seriously, it's not even real.
• 1:08:46
  So I think that that's like she being really cheeky towards the Brits going,
• 1:08:50
  well, by the way, you're the falling power and we are the rising power
• 1:08:55
  and you're not going to survive us.
• 1:08:59
  And, you know, and then the Russians are along for the ride.
• 1:09:02
  and as well they should be
• 1:09:06
  because they have a seat at this table
• 1:09:08
  and that's that.
• 1:09:13
  And by the end of the day,
• 1:09:14
  I've always said,
• 1:09:15
  you know, ARC,
• 1:09:16
  America, Russia, China
• 1:09:17
  always makes sense
• 1:09:17
  because when you break up the world
• 1:09:19
  into seats of power,
• 1:09:21
  there are four of them
• 1:09:22
  and three of them hate the fourth.
• 1:09:25
  And now we, you know,
• 1:09:26
  we have a very obvious
• 1:09:27
  and the Europeans hate us
• 1:09:28
  with a purple passion.
• 1:09:29
  Did you see this,
• 1:09:30
  this statue that they just,
• 1:09:32
  Yeah. This piece of art that they just in the European Parliament, right?
• 1:09:36
  In the European Parliament of a fat Trump sitting on, you know, standing on the shoulders of a of a slave or whatever.
• 1:09:43
  I'm like, oh, like, is that not projection? Because that's who you people are.
• 1:09:49
  Yeah, I mean, it is. It seems like the cognitive dissonance in Europe is insane.
• 1:09:55
  They don't realize that the European leaders, certainly not the European people, the European people.
• 1:09:59
  No, well, that's it.
• 1:10:00
  Yeah.
• 1:10:01
  Yeah.
• 1:10:01
  The European leaders.
• 1:10:02
  They're begging for.
• 1:10:03
  That's the question.
• 1:10:04
  Do the European people get control and their sovereignty back?
• 1:10:08
  Do they get to build themselves?
• 1:10:09
  I think that doesn't happen.
• 1:10:10
  I think that doesn't happen until we can draw the collateral stack and then change the money fund.
• 1:10:16
  And this gets into where you and I have to do the other side of this home and home.
• 1:10:20
  And so we're talking about what's happening with crypto and how that's going to fundamentally alter the way the world works.
• 1:10:26
  So it's funny, Marty, I've been thinking about this a lot recently.
• 1:10:29
  And you know how I, you and I have known each other long enough to know that I like to put up ideas,
• 1:10:36
  put forth hypotheses that I didn't even believe in,
• 1:10:39
  just to see if I can test them and play around with them and steel man them around.
• 1:10:42
  You know, just to see, right?
• 1:10:44
  So I had a thought pop into my head about two, three months ago.
• 1:10:46
  Maybe I talked to you about this, but I don't think so.
• 1:10:49
  So there's one of those classic arguments against Bitcoin,
• 1:10:53
  which is, oh, it was created by DARPA
• 1:10:55
  and it's all just going to be this big rug pull
• 1:10:58
  and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
• 1:10:59
  Like that's out there.
• 1:11:00
  It's been out there for years.
• 1:11:04
  Maybe that's true.
• 1:11:07
  Maybe it is.
• 1:11:08
  But here's the question.
• 1:11:09
  But that it was created by DARPA.
• 1:11:10
  That's the nugget of truth.
• 1:11:12
  But the lie is that it was built by DARPA
• 1:11:16
  to rug pull all of our capital into it
• 1:11:20
  and then destroy us all.
• 1:11:22
  No, no, no, no, no, no, no.
• 1:11:23
  Let's reframe.
• 1:11:24
  That's a great British psyop.
• 1:11:27
  Right?
• 1:11:28
  How about the opposite?
• 1:11:29
  How about, yeah, we were thinking about ways to beat these freaking people into going back to the 90s,
• 1:11:35
  knowing that we needed to have a digital asset that we could introduce into the space,
• 1:11:41
  into the monetary system as a disruptive technology in order to break the hold of the old euro dollar system.
• 1:11:52
  Yeah, it's funny.
• 1:11:53
  So DARPA, get on that shit.
• 1:11:56
  Put something together.
• 1:11:58
  And then they launch it right after they steal Fannie and Freddie
• 1:12:01
  and install their Manchurian candidate, Obama, to destroy the country.
• 1:12:06
  Again, October 31st, 2008, like right before the election.
• 1:12:13
  Think about all of that and then go, maybe the nugget of truth is,
• 1:12:16
  yeah, they're created by DARPA, but then they body swerve it.
• 1:12:19
  They twist that into something evil when the reality is that it was always
• 1:12:23
  there as the thing that would be the antipode to the completely corrupt gold and silver markets.
• 1:12:35
  Because the gold, silver, and oil markets are all terminally corrupted by this euro-dollar flow.
• 1:12:41
  So now if you have the ability to arrogate capital into an asset that they don't like,
• 1:12:46
  and notice that who hates Bitcoin more than anybody else the europeans the mica licensing regime that they they just wiped out like 80 of exchanges with that burdensome MICA license regime
• 1:13:03
  MICA, MICA.
• 1:13:04
  And if you look at the way Bitcoin's been attacked
• 1:13:06
  since the double top at 125 grand,
• 1:13:10
  it's always been like agents of the old system
• 1:13:13
  coming in at this particular moment
• 1:13:15
  and pushing the price down in an uneconomic manner.
• 1:13:19
  And I'm not sure if you've been aware of it, but France is just letting rich crypto holders get kidnapped and tortured.
• 1:13:28
  I did not see that.
• 1:13:29
  You have people working in the tax authority.
• 1:13:33
  They're selling KYC, AML data of all the rich Bitcoin holders to Moroccan gangs that are kidnapping them.
• 1:13:42
  So there could be some sort of social campaign to prevent people from wanting to adopt it because they think they'll get kidnapped and tortured.
• 1:13:49
  they can also get the bitcoin sell it onto the market use it to dump it use it to dump the price
• 1:13:57
  because look at the volatility in bitcoin over the last six seven days since the break above 86
• 1:14:02
  okay so the the quarterly close this is the interesting thing so again this morning did
• 1:14:06
  the quarterly closes for for the the market report i was going through all of them right
• 1:14:10
  and gold and silver were gold was bearish but kind of neutral silver was bearish and bearish
• 1:14:18
  because it was an outside bar to the downside,
• 1:14:21
  but we broke the Q2O,
• 1:14:22
  so it was less strong than gold.
• 1:14:24
  But then Bitcoin was a one-bar bullish reversal
• 1:14:27
  against the three-quarter down.
• 1:14:29
  That's the peak at one.
• 1:14:30
  Three bars down, one-bar bullish reversal,
• 1:14:32
  when there was a 95% chance of it going lower than higher
• 1:14:36
  at the beginning of the quarter,
• 1:14:38
  and it held below and then reversed to the upside.
• 1:14:43
  The Bitcoin bear market from a technical perspective
• 1:14:45
  is now over.
• 1:14:47
  and since then since october 30th last wednesday a week ago today well i've been watching every time
• 1:14:55
  i look up the bitcoin oh we're back to 85 cool great oh 86 83 86 83 86 83 5 like every day i
• 1:15:05
  wake up and it's like a freaking two thousand twenty five hundred dollar roller coaster every
• 1:15:08
  like 24 hours that's a tell someone is desperately trying to hold the market back from going to 90
• 1:15:15
  grand or 95 or back to 100. But again, the long-term charts tell you the story. The weekly
• 1:15:22
  charts won't tell you the story, the monthly charts, sometimes the monthly charts will,
• 1:15:25
  but it's really important when you do these things. So I wrote this morning in my post
• 1:15:31
  to introduce the market report for today. I was like, it's really important that four times a year
• 1:15:36
  you review all of the quarterly closes of all the assets that you track, because that's going to
• 1:15:42
  tell you the big picture and it's going to wipe out all the fucking noise.
• 1:15:46
  Well, what about this little headline?
• 1:15:47
  What about that?
• 1:15:48
  What about this guy and this guy's relationship to that guy and all this other rotten nonsense?
• 1:15:52
  The markets, of course, a quarter are going to tell you where the markets are headed and
• 1:15:57
  where the politics are headed.
• 1:15:58
  Let's not say we have free markets.
• 1:16:00
  It's to tell you that the aggregate sum of all of this noise and all of these issues,
• 1:16:06
  sum down to be long Bitcoin, be neutral gold, be worried about silver.
• 1:16:10
  and we're probably never going back to $70 a barrel or $65 a barrel oil.
• 1:16:17
  We're more likely to stay at the $80 to $85 range,
• 1:16:20
  but it's going to be at the expense,
• 1:16:21
  I would say at the expense of $20,000 gold at some point in the future.
• 1:16:25
  And that the foreign oil,
• 1:16:26
  just because of the number of refineries that have been hit,
• 1:16:31
  pipelines that have been attacked,
• 1:16:32
  ships that have been blown up,
• 1:16:33
  like, you know, you blow up a ship,
• 1:16:35
  it takes five years to build a new one.
• 1:16:36
  You know what I mean?
• 1:16:37
  Like at some point, the, you know,
• 1:16:39
  the jackup rigs out in Singapore,
• 1:16:40
  you know they can't make ships any faster just you know oil tankers just take a while to build
• 1:16:45
  and then you've got to get the capital the the order book and the flow book i've i've spent too
• 1:16:49
  much time in my life in the past you know looking at that capex cycle and you know in the before time
• 1:16:57
  you know 10 12 years ago i understand it enough understand um you know i used to look i used to
• 1:17:04
  track the Singaporean shipbuilder Keppel, K-E-P-P-E-L, major shipbuilder in Singapore,
• 1:17:11
  and rig builder, like jackup rig builder and all that stuff.
• 1:17:16
  Like that's a huge part of that cycle.
• 1:17:19
  If you were a bad guy, you would be looking at the CapEx cycle in all of those markets
• 1:17:24
  to understand when the market's going to be the most vulnerable to start blowing up ships
• 1:17:28
  to get a desired economic choke point,
• 1:17:34
  which is what Davos is doing right now.
• 1:17:36
  That's what they're doing.
• 1:17:37
  They're attacking the oil refineries,
• 1:17:38
  they're attacking the ships,
• 1:17:39
  and they're trying to crash the oil economies
• 1:17:42
  and the oil can't flow.
• 1:17:43
  As I put it this morning,
• 1:17:45
  there's nothing wrong with the upstream portion
• 1:17:47
  of the oil market.
• 1:17:48
  There's plenty of oil,
• 1:17:49
  people are pulling it out of the ground,
• 1:17:51
  but they're attacking midstream and downstream.
• 1:17:53
  Midstream shipping pipelines,
• 1:17:55
  downstream refineries.
• 1:17:57
  because crude oil is not a usable product.
• 1:18:00
  Why we have all this other shit.
• 1:18:01
  We have it.
• 1:18:02
  Pull it out of the ground move it to where it needs to be refined The refineries are the key And then from there So of course they attacking all the refineries It makes perfect sense If you in a civilizational blow the civilization up mode right Burn it to the
• 1:18:13
  fuck ground. Burn it to fuck down mode. Well, that's what you would be doing.
• 1:18:17
  Well, let's stay on this. I do want to come back to the DARPA Bitcoin thing,
• 1:18:22
  because it's funny. I was talking about that last Friday. But on that night,
• 1:18:24
  we woke up to the headline of Ukraine bombing the Russian tanker this morning.
• 1:18:29
  And that's what I think the wild card in the situation is.
• 1:18:34
  Like, dude, they try to escalate that.
• 1:18:36
  Okay.
• 1:18:36
  Clearly, they're clearly blowing up tankers, blowing up all the Russian Royal refineries.
• 1:18:41
  That's a mysterious event in Venezuela two days ago.
• 1:18:46
  Like, it was funny.
• 1:18:47
  When I was writing last month's issue, Dexter, as the editor on my work, right, you know, pinged me for a line I had in the article about the refinery in Indiana.
• 1:18:59
  the Exxon refinery in Indiana or Illinois, Illinois, that was shut down for an electrical
• 1:19:04
  problem of unknown origin. Right. And I quoted the Reuters article that I read on investing.com
• 1:19:14
  directly. That was how they reported it. I didn't put it in quotes, though. So he just looked at me
• 1:19:18
  and said, dude, that's way too conspirator even for you. So rewrite it. Mike, what's really fun.
• 1:19:23
  I said, I'll rewrite it. But what's really funny is I all I was doing was quoting Reuters.
• 1:19:27
  they wouldn't actually because you know that if that was say a bunch of ukrainians or a bunch of
• 1:19:33
  brits or whoever it was and they did that and they reported that truthfully again you now get into
• 1:19:41
  this has a spell i think if we if we can if we know that they did that we have to respond to that
• 1:19:49
  and they know we have to respond to it which is why they pull off this which is why they do this
• 1:19:54
  shit in the first place because we know that they know that we know that they know blah blah blah
• 1:19:57
  and you're they can't we can't um report it honestly and that's why they get to continue
• 1:20:04
  doing it and at some point the band-aid is going to get ripped off and this again again is one of
• 1:20:09
  those things where you know again the messaging you invoked it earlier i didn't which i didn't
• 1:20:14
  respond to which is they guess the messaging from the administration has not been optimal
• 1:20:19
  There are many things about the administration that are not optimal.
• 1:20:24
  If you're waiting for perfection, well, got news for you.
• 1:20:28
  I hope you're Christian because that'll happen in heaven, folks.
• 1:20:31
  And if not, then you have to deal with the messy state that is the real world.
• 1:20:36
  And what looks obvious to you and to me may not be obvious to the people there because
• 1:20:42
  of one, information you don't have.
• 1:20:45
  Two, their circumstances.
• 1:20:47
  Three, their own personal bandwidth.
• 1:20:48
  with. Like their focus determines their reality, right? So, you know, how about a little patience,
• 1:20:56
  a little, the way I, the way I've been, I've gotten through all of this is to say, look,
• 1:21:02
  I have my anxiety. I'm not going to lie. Everybody has anxiety. Like, you know, we all,
• 1:21:08
  none of us have a crystal ball. We all want, we all want to be able to say definitively,
• 1:21:13
  this is what's going to happen. We also know the enemy gets a vote. So how about
• 1:21:19
  as long as things are moving in the direction you want them to move in and the balance sheet is,
• 1:21:27
  or the scorecard is, well, we're putting up more points than they are, but we're still going to
• 1:21:31
  win the game 35-21 football game. We didn't shut them out 49 to nothing. And there's too many people
• 1:21:38
  who expect that the only way we win is if we win 49 to nothing.
• 1:21:43
  Those games like that, and even in professional football,
• 1:21:46
  they only happen in really important events once in a generation
• 1:21:49
  where you get that kind of blowout, right?
• 1:21:55
  Because the other team is just so much better than the other one.
• 1:21:58
  We're not in that world.
• 1:21:59
  We're in a world where it's going to be kick and scratch.
• 1:22:02
  You might have to settle for a field goal as opposed to getting a touchdown.
• 1:22:05
  And then you move the ball forward, three yards and a cloud of dust,
• 1:22:08
  and you get up the next day and you move some other ball down the field.
• 1:22:12
  One of the things that I've been impressed with by this administration
• 1:22:16
  from both a messaging and an operational tempo perspective
• 1:22:20
  is that they are incredibly good, and I think this is all Trump.
• 1:22:26
  Going, okay, well, we're going to push the ball down the field on this vector
• 1:22:29
  or in this game, because they're playing like seven games at the same time.
• 1:22:32
  So we're going to move the ball on Cuba this far.
• 1:22:35
  Well, okay, we've reached the end.
• 1:22:36
  We can't go any farther.
• 1:22:36
  okay let's shift off a cube and move on to this and then when we're done with that we'll shift
• 1:22:40
  on to this and our because our opponents will never give us give him a definitive win because
• 1:22:46
  in any of these arenas because if they do then that's something that he can put in his back
• 1:22:50
  pocket take off the board and then concentrate more firepower you know on these areas of the
• 1:22:56
  board right on these areas of the board you leave that aside now so now let's you know so they never
• 1:23:01
  want to narrow his field, but he's like, I don't give a shit. I've got, I got 18 ways that I can
• 1:23:07
  attack you people. I'll just pick one. And today I'll pick the one where I think you're most
• 1:23:11
  vulnerable. I'm going to go after that. I'm going to poke that one. I'm going to force you to respond.
• 1:23:15
  So, you know, they stop him and then he responds and attacks somewhere else.
• 1:23:19
  He does it all the time and watching him do it.
• 1:23:22
  And that's not trusting the plan or anything.
• 1:23:23
  That's just like observational technique.
• 1:23:25
  I'm just doing the observational thing and I'm just being generous.
• 1:23:28
  And maybe I'm overly generous in my assessment of what he's doing.
• 1:23:32
  That's for the audience to decide for.
• 1:23:34
  I don't give a shit.
• 1:23:35
  Like when I can't control that, so I can't care about it.
• 1:23:38
  Right.
• 1:23:38
  The best I can do is present the argument the best way I can.
• 1:23:40
  And then you can either be persuaded by it or not.
• 1:23:43
  So I'll go from there.
• 1:23:45
  But by doing that and realizing that, it's taken away a lot of my anxiety about the future and the catastrophism.
• 1:23:51
  Well, at the same time, I'm not dumb.
• 1:23:52
  I'm going to hedge my bets.
• 1:23:54
  So why do you think I'm, you know, you know, like, why do you think I make certain decisions in my life?
• 1:23:59
  I don't want to be in a place without where it's inhospitable without electricity.
• 1:24:03
  That would be Florida.
• 1:24:04
  So I'm moving to Tennessee.
• 1:24:05
  Like, that's a, that's a, that's a real practical decision.
• 1:24:09
  And it has other benefits for it.
• 1:24:11
  But that was one of the deciding factors.
• 1:24:14
  Yeah.
• 1:24:15
  No, if you look at just last month's, your point about multiple games being played, I mean, you have Greenland, the China meeting, and then the AI summit where basically shoved Dario Amadei in a corner and said, no, we're accelerating.
• 1:24:27
  You're not slowing down this reindustrialization.
• 1:24:29
  We're not giving you your regulatory mode.
• 1:24:32
  Actually, yeah, not only that, but we're going to drive your stock price into the frigging dirt.
• 1:24:36
  You're going to force you to IPO when you don't want to so we can buy the fucking shares for five cents on the dollar and stick them in the sovereign wealth fund.
• 1:24:42
  Fuck you.
• 1:24:44
  that's what that's what's coming dude i don't know if anybody else has seen this way well that's like
• 1:24:48
  maybe like putting putting uncle tom on the shoulder and thinking through the uh the lens
• 1:24:53
  of the city of london i mean the effective altruists they're they basically stem out of
• 1:24:59
  oxford and yeah we we have we i mean one of the leading frontier labs is is run by a bunch of
• 1:25:06
  the oxford effective altruist acolytes like is that
• 1:25:12
  but a defective altruist
• 1:25:16
  like oh yeah he's he's been hanging around trump too much it's good good for him um i agree no i i've
• 1:25:26
  never bought that that was anything other than you know that was just communism for zoomers
• 1:25:32
  yeah that's just communism repackaged
• 1:25:35
  presumably that's all that is but it's like that
• 1:25:37
  is that the city of london sleeper cell
• 1:25:38
  uh in the in the u.s london high table again
• 1:25:42
  i i don't like you know i don't like to just use like the city of london
• 1:25:47
  thing i want to clarify this for some people because they they they
• 1:25:50
  misunderstand me and i said i've said this to dexter and i said look i i'm i
• 1:25:55
  i have a messaging strategy like everybody else has to have one which is
• 1:25:59
  that London has always been the third rail of geopolitics. We're not allowed to talk about
• 1:26:05
  the British empire existing anymore because it ended in 1946 miraculously after World War II.
• 1:26:11
  That's bullshit. Okay. That's just bullshit. I'm not saying that they're all powerful. I'm not
• 1:26:16
  saying that they have ultimate agency or they have ultimate control or anything. That is not
• 1:26:21
  what I'm saying and never have said. All I've ever tried to do was to say, look, everywhere that you
• 1:26:26
  think it's an it's an evil America no that's probably London trying to sell you on the idea
• 1:26:34
  of evil America while they do their evil nefarious shit and it's not just the British but since most
• 1:26:41
  of the money flows through the city of London their carve-out banks their shadow banks in the
• 1:26:47
  Caribbean Vancouver Hong Kong Singapore all of these places Dubai Zurich like if we knew why
• 1:26:56
  I would say Zurich is probably more old European money.
• 1:26:59
  But when you realize that that's part of the process here, that's you can't deny that.
• 1:27:04
  You have to incorporate that into your mindset.
• 1:27:08
  You have to incorporate that into your your understanding of how to read headlines.
• 1:27:11
  It doesn't have to be solely operative.
• 1:27:14
  It's not just a single vector analysis.
• 1:27:16
  I think the French have plenty of things to do to answer for.
• 1:27:22
  They have a lot of agency in this.
• 1:27:23
  There's shit going on with the Germans and the Spanish and everybody's got shit going on.
• 1:27:28
  The Chinese are doing shit.
• 1:27:29
  The Russians are doing shit.
• 1:27:30
  The Iranians are doing shit.
• 1:27:31
  And and but it does all come back to where the center of the euro dollar system, which is the liquidity for the entirety of this and of this thing.
• 1:27:44
  And that includes the shitbag.
• 1:27:46
  Americans would be oligarchs who've been deposed, by the way, who still want to who want to desperately get back into power.
• 1:27:52
  you know, the Bushes and the Clintons and those people.
• 1:27:55
  So I prefer the term high table as I get older.
• 1:28:00
  I really have gotten to the point now where I'm like, you know,
• 1:28:03
  if you haven't seen the John Wick movies, maybe you should watch them
• 1:28:06
  because they really are a fucking documentary, right?
• 1:28:10
  You've got the Russian franchise.
• 1:28:13
  You've got the European franchise or the Italian franchise.
• 1:28:15
  You've got the British one.
• 1:28:16
  You've got the American one.
• 1:28:17
  You've got the Japanese one, the Chinese one.
• 1:28:19
  They're all there in all four of the movies.
• 1:28:22
  And they fighting amongst themselves And it a metaphor for the big fight that happening with the old oligarch money that been around since rome and messages of it are everywhere around us and they still fighting amongst themselves to see
• 1:28:39
  who's going to to win or and then if you look at john wick as if you extend the metaphor he's just
• 1:28:46
  the ordinary american who's like you shot my fucking dog no rules and consequences you guys
• 1:28:51
  broke the fucking rules and i don't give a shit i'm taking the i'm taking him out because it's
• 1:28:56
  wrong. And it's against my, you know, it's against everything. You know, I was a bad man when I
• 1:29:02
  worked for these people. Now I'm not working for them anymore. Fuck that. And it's a, it's a
• 1:29:07
  perfectly adequate metaphor. And it works better if you actually think of it that way, because that
• 1:29:12
  way there's not one, there's not one star chamber. There's a plethora of little star chambers that
• 1:29:19
  get together every once in a while and, and think that they decide to control the world. And I've
• 1:29:25
  always said this you know i've always described davos as those who think that they control the
• 1:29:29
  world they don't control the world they just think they do they just make you think that they do
• 1:29:34
  and they and they spend all their time trying to convince you that they're all powerful
• 1:29:40
  and you have no power and that is bullshit complete and utter bullshit because if that
• 1:29:46
  were the case i'd already be dead well i think and i think the the veil is being lifted particularly
• 1:29:53
  here in the united states i mean you mentioned the old the old oligarchs uh here in the u.s i
• 1:29:59
  mean hillary clinton's been making the rounds like talking about ai and other stuff and everybody's
• 1:30:02
  just like go away like bill gates is coming out talking about ai everybody's like go away dude
• 1:30:08
  we're putting you in the hole dude what we have here is a failure to communicate i'm gonna like
• 1:30:16
  induce what the the paul newman was a hud that whatever that freaking movie is um the one where
• 1:30:21
  what we have here is a failure to communicate and then they put them back in the hole
• 1:30:24
  that's what i'm talking about that's where bill gates needs to go he needs to like sweat it out
• 1:30:28
  in the hole um all of them they're they all they it's fine let them let them play their games let
• 1:30:36
  them have their say let them spend their money let them spend their capital let them try and
• 1:30:40
  extend and pretend but if we decide we don't want to live in that world anymore and enough of us say
• 1:30:46
  that's enough we're not living under your rule anymore and we explain to to enough people why
• 1:30:53
  you should never want to live under their rule anymore and fall for their bullshit we win by
• 1:30:59
  default they will lose they we may not win with donald trump or in this era it may take another
• 1:31:06
  50 years or another two generations or another cycle of generations whatever you know like nothing
• 1:31:11
  worth doing isn't worth fighting for yeah it was never gonna be easy and it wasn't gonna happen
• 1:31:16
  overnight that's that's the frustrating part of this is obvious on all fronts like the domestic
• 1:31:23
  economy on the re-industrialization and the monetary level what's going on with stable coins
• 1:31:27
  like they are actively trying to re-architect the physical economy and the financial economy
• 1:31:33
  in front of our eyes and to your point like people want like a 49 to zero blowout think it
• 1:31:38
  is never going to be that way. Right. And, you know, again, I, I, you know,
• 1:31:45
  I look when you're in opposition, when you're losing, standing on your principles,
• 1:31:51
  shouting them from the high heavens is the thing is the right play. It's how you
• 1:31:54
  arrogate people to you to form a contentional community, to build the resistance necessary
• 1:31:59
  to get to the point where you could begin winning and get out. But once you're no longer in the
• 1:32:04
  opposition, that's when you have to take the opportunity that's in front of you and make the
• 1:32:10
  absolute most of it. And this is the part that the libertarians are just refusing to get through
• 1:32:17
  their heads. And I'm serious when I say this because they're doubling down at every turn.
• 1:32:23
  And then I have to say, okay, really? The more you double down on this nonsense that Trump is
• 1:32:29
  betraying us and Dave Smith refuses to even watch Rush Albrecht's speech, for Christ's sake,
• 1:32:34
  Like, you know, this is just real.
• 1:32:36
  I'm like, are you kidding?
• 1:32:38
  Like, so do you, so Donald Trump got you a banana split.
• 1:32:44
  You asked for, you know, a banana split with, with, you know, with extra fudge.
• 1:32:48
  And you only got a banana split with a little bit of fudge.
• 1:32:50
  And you're bitching.
• 1:32:52
  Go fuck yourself.
• 1:32:53
  Like, go out there and win.
• 1:32:55
  Go, go make a new fudge factory for Christ's sake.
• 1:32:58
  So you can, so the next time he gives you the banana split, it'll have enough fudge on it for you.
• 1:33:01
  I don't know.
• 1:33:02
  I don't understand.
• 1:33:03
  and really what it comes down to is this i was saying this is the what i said this morning
• 1:33:08
  and i was thinking about this i said you know i can i go into an into a discussion with somebody
• 1:33:15
  and they go well and i say well don't you see what's happening here and they're like well that's
• 1:33:19
  great but i'm like no don't use that's great but because that's great the phrase that's great but
• 1:33:27
  means that you want more.
• 1:33:30
  And then, because you don't care about,
• 1:33:32
  okay, at what point are you going to stop saying but?
• 1:33:37
  Because we just built this.
• 1:33:39
  We got this thing done That great How about that great I hope we get this I like to get this next as opposed to that great but you need to prove to me like i i i all about distrust about
• 1:33:50
  verifying and all the shit i'm all for it but there's comes a point where you have to be able
• 1:33:54
  to do both things at the same time and sometimes you just have to go yeah that's great period
• 1:34:00
  cool tomorrow we may get something really cool too i don't not really crazy about that yeah okay
• 1:34:07
  and then you know we go from there but you know i i think what we've you know i know that you've
• 1:34:14
  tried to do it and i've been screaming to the high heavens for six months that the iran war
• 1:34:19
  or conflict or whatever you want to call it was a necessary evil for lack of a better term
• 1:34:28
  and if you think that it's on it's terrible for the iranian people to have to suffer and this that
• 1:34:33
  and everything else. Yes. But notice how precious few videos there are of civilians being killed
• 1:34:42
  in Iran. Because if there were civilians being killed in Iran, they would have used them
• 1:34:48
  in every venue possible. And if you're going to go back to the first day of the war where
• 1:34:54
  the school, the girls' school got bombed, and that's your only example, wow. Okay.
• 1:35:03
  I'm really sorry that that happened.
• 1:35:05
  I truly am, but it's one or two.
• 1:35:10
  In a war like this, I've chatted with Alex Grainer about it,
• 1:35:15
  who lived through the Yugoslavian civil wars.
• 1:35:17
  I've chatted with all these people.
• 1:35:18
  If that's the only thing you have to point to, yeah, that's a tragedy.
• 1:35:22
  Certainly what's happened in Gaza was a tragedy with no reservation.
• 1:35:27
  It's a tragedy, but it's a tragedy, period.
• 1:35:30
  That's sincere.
• 1:35:32
  like that's different than what we've seen here and so maybe you should take a step back from
• 1:35:39
  you know take off your i don't kick puppies shirt that you're so fucking virtuous that you don't
• 1:35:44
  kick puppies like nobody fucking kicks puppies i'm giving dexter white credit on that one that
• 1:35:48
  one's his um and say you know i'm so i'm so much but of a of a member uh i'm not even gonna go
• 1:35:56
  there i'll do that one later but that's what we have to have to do it's the real world we have to
• 1:36:02
  accept the fact that bad things happen along the way of good things happening.
• 1:36:09
  Tragedies occur. Humans are messy. It sucks. Try and make it up in post or whatever you have to do
• 1:36:15
  and move on. Because, you know, if there's no forgiveness, if there's no, if there's no,
• 1:36:21
  I don't know, there's no accounting, you know, cost benefit accounting or whatever,
• 1:36:29
  you, however you want to put it, I hate to use that phrase. Yeah, there's no karmic balance here.
• 1:36:33
  Those girls are dead. What are you going to do? But not do anything because of the threat of you're
• 1:36:40
  going to hurt one person somewhere. Well, meanwhile, these guys that we're dealing with in
• 1:36:47
  Iran are literally going around to trafficking children and trafficking organs and running drugs
• 1:36:54
  and destroying people's lives and everything else. At some point, you have to just say, no,
• 1:36:57
  I have the moral authority as president of the United States to say I'm ending this bullshit, and it's not in my people's best interest.
• 1:37:03
  And I'm not going to have them raped and slaughtered, basically, economically, financially, politically, and every other way, and culturally, because I'm afraid of blowing up a girls' school outside of Tehran.
• 1:37:14
  No, fuck off.
• 1:37:15
  We're doing it.
• 1:37:15
  That's it.
• 1:37:16
  And I'm not going to feel bad about it.
• 1:37:18
  Yeah.
• 1:37:19
  That's it.
• 1:37:20
  Well, then, again, like, bringing it back, again, looking at the winds, like, it does seem pretty, like, I sit on the board.
• 1:37:27
  of a data center company and like we just like the whole data center anti-data center rhetoric
• 1:37:32
  that's been going oh it's just like completely false like it is bringing a ton of construction
• 1:37:37
  jobs a ton of electrician jobs welding jobs um it's going to lower electricity prices for everybody
• 1:37:45
  yeah like we just i mean i don't know how far you are but we just we just announced this pr
• 1:37:49
  yesterday but hopkinsville we have an operation there we're actually expanding by 50 megawatts
• 1:37:55
  And to do that, we need to build a 65 megawatt substation, and that's going to be fully funded by us.
• 1:38:00
  The taxpayer is not going to pay for it.
• 1:38:02
  Right.
• 1:38:02
  Well, and the taxpayer is actually going to get the benefit of when you don't use the peak electricity load and you feed it back into the grid, which is what Trump said originally.
• 1:38:10
  And actually, what I do know is I heard a thing recently.
• 1:38:15
  It's like I think it's in Georgia.
• 1:38:16
  you know they i think two or three or maybe even four of these data center plus power generation
• 1:38:23
  co-location projects have gone online in georgia and everybody's electricity bells are dropping
• 1:38:28
  you know because it's the right way of going about it look if you i i have no problem with
• 1:38:33
  that model i think it's a great model it's a way of building everything out and then we
• 1:38:38
  decentralize the grid which is great that takes powers away from the local government
• 1:38:41
  that's a big one because now we have private electricity generation competing with
• 1:38:46
  local franchise monopolies controlled by local governments.
• 1:38:51
  And I know like the South of me in Gainesville Florida that where my Gainesville regional utilities they own everything water power gas everything And it all run by the city of Gainesville And then they just play the game of raising and lowering the tariff rates and the rates
• 1:39:08
  for water, power, and gas relative to property taxes every election cycle.
• 1:39:13
  So they raise the power bills and they lower the property taxes in order to run on the
• 1:39:18
  fact that we cut your property taxes.
• 1:39:20
  They've been doing this shit for years.
• 1:39:22
  And it's awful, but they have some of the highest property tax plus utility rates in the state.
• 1:39:29
  It's awful.
• 1:39:30
  I don't live there, thankfully.
• 1:39:31
  That's why I live north of Alachua County.
• 1:39:35
  I made that decision 25 years ago on purpose because I'm not an idiot.
• 1:39:40
  That's where being a libertarian is of a benefit to you personally because you can think through these things and you can see these systems for what they are and the grips for what they are.
• 1:39:49
  But then there's a point where, you know, hold your principles.
• 1:39:53
  You can't eat them.
• 1:39:55
  Implement them as best you can.
• 1:39:56
  And when you see good things happening, then you say to yourself, well, the ledger board has all these good things and a few of these bad.
• 1:40:04
  Okay, I can live with that.
• 1:40:05
  And we move the ball forward.
• 1:40:07
  And these things are going to pay massive dividends in the future that are going to obviate some of these other things that we're not dealing with today.
• 1:40:13
  Right?
• 1:40:14
  Yeah.
• 1:40:14
  no that's i mean last topic here domestically thinking like immigration too i think that's
• 1:40:20
  one thing everybody's like they're not all they haven't all been sent back yet and so therefore
• 1:40:25
  it's a failure but if you look at net immigration obviously there's been comments around h1b visas
• 1:40:30
  and how that's being gamed and how we're going to fix that and then heading into midterms i'm sure
• 1:40:35
  you've been seeing what's happening uh in uh minnesota with like these somali gang outbreaks
• 1:40:40
  I think that's, if anything, that's going to create a reason to even get more aggressive with it moving forward.
• 1:40:48
  We are.
• 1:40:49
  And again, when you say things, when people say things like, just get them all out of here.
• 1:40:54
  I'm like, okay, how?
• 1:40:56
  You got 20 million of them.
• 1:40:56
  How are you going to run?
• 1:40:58
  Are you going to devote your weekends to this process?
• 1:41:01
  What are you going to do?
• 1:41:02
  Are you going to pay for the plane tickets?
• 1:41:04
  Are you going to pay for the ship captains to show up at the port of Jacksonville and stick 50,000 of these guys and ship them back to the frigging Pua's sand?
• 1:41:14
  Is that what you're going to do?
• 1:41:15
  Are you putting that money on the table?
• 1:41:16
  Do you know how much that costs?
• 1:41:17
  Do you know how much time that costs?
• 1:41:18
  Like, how about get rid of the worst ones first and then start setting up processes which just de-incentivize them to even stay?
• 1:41:27
  And then they go home and then they can't come back.
• 1:41:29
  And there's, you know, deportations are at an all-time high.
• 1:41:33
  The border's secure.
• 1:41:35
  We're starting to see the froth coming out off the housing market in the places where they,
• 1:41:42
  and the wage market and everything else, where they have been inserted and subsidized to come.
• 1:41:50
  So that money's going to start coming off the budget.
• 1:41:52
  And again, the expenditures are going to get better slowly but surely.
• 1:41:58
  I did a thing with Grock a couple of months ago.
• 1:42:02
  I don't think you can. I know you and I haven't talked about this, but I said, I just sat down
• 1:42:05
  with Grock for like half an hour one day. And I said, okay, talk to me about the situation with
• 1:42:10
  the fiscal situation. And I said, okay, what's the rate of growth of government receivables?
• 1:42:18
  How much money are we, what's the rate of growth for, you know, government receivables,
• 1:42:23
  not including tariffs? And Grock's like, about 4% year over year. Okay. What's the rate of growth
• 1:42:28
  of expenditures, about 3% year over year. Well, so we're still spending more money, sure, but we're,
• 1:42:36
  the government's bringing in more money. Yeah. And that's being, and that's being reflected. And
• 1:42:40
  then plus the tariff revenue. Okay. Let's add that back in $175 billion a year. Now,
• 1:42:46
  setter is paribus and let's add in a 5% reduction year over year and waste, fraud and abuse.
• 1:42:51
  headcount, forced retirements, you know, shutting down dumb systems that, you know, all this,
• 1:42:59
  just 5%. Can we get rid of, can we get rid of 5% of the waste and the fraud? And, you know,
• 1:43:04
  these, like, what would that look like? Well, it would look like for fiscal year 2027,
• 1:43:10
  that we'd have a $1.7 trillion deficit, which is what we're running this year. But next year,
• 1:43:14
  would be 1.3. And the year after that would be 1.0. And that's not anywhere close to the rate
• 1:43:26
  that is going to drop as we go forward. With just increasing receivables, growing your way out of it,
• 1:43:34
  that part of it, getting rid of some waste, fraud, and abuse, and balancing trade out.
• 1:43:42
  I'm not leaving it.
• 1:43:44
  I'm leaving aside all the investment that's come in, all the, you know, all the other stuff,
• 1:43:49
  tax breaks, expensing, all the, you know, all the other things that are happening.
• 1:43:53
  Just that, those metrics alone cuts the budget in half in three years.
• 1:43:58
  Now, if you don't think that's going to make the United States more credit worthy in three
• 1:44:02
  years relative to global investment, then I submit that you might.
• 1:44:09
  have the education of a fifth grade.
• 1:44:13
  Or be an IQ 60 Somali
• 1:44:14
  organizing a gang in Minneapolis.
• 1:44:19
  Yeah.
• 1:44:20
  And like, again,
• 1:44:21
  bringing it back to Judy Shelton,
• 1:44:22
  who knows what the plan is.
• 1:44:25
  I mean, maybe gold-backed bonds,
• 1:44:27
  maybe Bitcoin-backed bonds,
• 1:44:28
  but like recollateralizing the system too,
• 1:44:31
  I think is part of a plan.
• 1:44:33
  It's absolutely part of the plan.
• 1:44:34
  It's not even a thing.
• 1:44:37
  But we're going to recallateralize
• 1:44:39
  that debt. We're going to open up the asset side of the balance sheet, which we're doing.
• 1:44:45
  And then we're going to re-collateralize the debt side of the balance sheet.
• 1:44:49
  And we're going to do that at our pace. And we're going to do so in a way that is
• 1:44:53
  the least disruptive for the entirety of the global economy, so that everybody benefits,
• 1:45:00
  so that the pain of that reorganization is felt by as few people as possible.
• 1:45:05
  except for the fucking globalist shit back at the high table who want to destroy us all
• 1:45:13
  why don't why can't i nothing would make like like how do you destroy a narcissist
• 1:45:18
  you ignore him and then you destroy his reputation you don't stream up by his toenails and feed him
• 1:45:25
  to dogs i mean that well well satisfying like if he a traitor no the best thing to do is to let him watch him leave himself out and go from hero to villain and then have to live with the
• 1:45:40
  villainy while you move on without him.
• 1:45:43
  And you don't,
• 1:45:44
  or you aren't locked in this fucking codependent relationship of his,
• 1:45:48
  of, of, of his narcissistic view.
• 1:45:51
  That's how you deal with it.
• 1:45:52
  How you deal with a narcissistic parent, how you deal with, you know,
• 1:45:56
  it's how you deal with an abuser you you walk away from them and you go build something
• 1:45:59
  constructive for yourself think about construction not destruction there will be plenty of time for
• 1:46:06
  hang-ins and waterboarding and all the rest of it just remember folks it's not waterboarding if
• 1:46:11
  you use diesel fuel um yeah sorry i saw that on twitter i thought it was cute the um well it's
• 1:46:23
  funny to talk about like the they're going to go at their own pace again last friday i recorded
• 1:46:29
  with a roman historian and one of the focuses of that conversation was how constantine
• 1:46:35
  brought the empire back to a gold standard um and that the way it was described is it took a while
• 1:46:42
  you introduced the solides and it took about two decades of him working on it but then after that
• 1:46:47
  You had 700 years of basically gold standard in that part of the world You can see something beginning to happen here too and that maybe that like when i on your show we can talk about how that may
• 1:46:59
  play out with yeah no i i would love that i think bitcoin and stable coins is you had the solidus
• 1:47:03
  and then you had the silver coins on top of it that were spending but the the solidus was the
• 1:47:08
  gold coin that was used as the reserve asset and i could see that being part of the plan with bitcoin
• 1:47:13
  and stable coins or it's like absolutely we should probably leave that for that it's better for when
• 1:47:17
  we do this so when we when we get we should get we should probably wrap up here this is i think a
• 1:47:21
  good place to stop and um and leave it off for as part one and then you and i will pick it up on my
• 1:47:26
  podcast in a week or two and whenever you get a chance so let's do it that's not good that's
• 1:47:31
  great sounds great i love it would be good to it would be good i i really do feel like i'm missing
• 1:47:36
  part of the whole crypto revolution thing and i need to reach out to caitlin long um i want to get
• 1:47:42
  her on the cast as well we just gotta i gotta go gotta get back on the gotta get back on the hump
• 1:47:46
  guys, you know, vacation's over. It's not time to get serious. The one thing I'll say how it ties
• 1:47:51
  to this conversation is like to your point, like midterms don't matter. And they're going to go
• 1:47:56
  along with, they're going to go execute their plan no matter what. I think we've seen a precursor
• 1:48:00
  of that with the failure of the Clarity Act to get passed. And they're just like, all right, SEC,
• 1:48:04
  CFTC, OCC, just go write the rules anyway. We don't care. Yep. And then we'll, and then we'll
• 1:48:08
  solidify them and we we enshrine them as a law later on That fine We can do that later Yeah sounds great Marty as always dude beautiful beautiful to see you Great chat We do it again soon
• 1:48:21
  We'll do it on my, we'll do it in my crib.
• 1:48:23
  You know, you won't have, and folks, you won't have to look at either of our ugly mugs, audio only.
• 1:48:27
  I have the purity of the audio, of the audio only podcast.
• 1:48:31
  So there you go.
• 1:48:32
  We'll talk soon.
• 1:48:32
  Okay.
• 1:48:33
  Peace and love, freaks.
• 1:48:34
  Okay.
• 1:48:35
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• 1:48:37
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• 1:48:42
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