Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 512 - 5/14/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 512 - 5/14/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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54321 All Systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
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welcome to episode 512 of the All Systems Go sports betting
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podcast powered by Rhythm. I'm your host Josh Applebaum.
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What's going on everyone? Happy Thirsty Thursday.
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Another day here in the arena, guys.
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Another day with wall to wall MLB coverage and bets we got to
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talk about. I know Thursday's kind of
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getaway days, you usually get a slate that's a little bit
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smaller than usual. So today just an 11 game slate
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overall. Got a lot of day sweats going
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on, but we do have a pretty good slate here for tonight.
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There's only basically four games with first pitches, you
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know, basically 6 O clock or later, but three of the four I
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found a good sharp angle on. So three of the four here with
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one game that's kind of a pick em type number.
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And then a couple favorites as always, guys trying to look at
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line movement, split system matches, good rhythm edges, good
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sharp mush edges. Well, all three of these games
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have all of that. So we'll see if we can go 2 and
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1 eke out a winning night as we as we steam into nearly a Friday
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and of course the weekend here coming up as well.
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So 3 pack again, trying to go 2 and one on a big thirsty
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Thursday. Now looking back to our last
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night, guys 1 and 2 -, 0.82 units.
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Had a nice hit with the Atlanta Braves.
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Break up the Braves, man, they're incredible even when
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they're a dog and you get a little bit of line movement.
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Again, Braves as a dog at home member.
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The Cubbies with Imanaga, they're getting a slight
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majority of tickets, but that line dipped a little bit toward
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Atlanta. Well, the Braves came through
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getting around plus 1/18 on the money line.
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They won four to one against the Cubbies, but what was really,
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really frustrating was the Tampa Bay Rays because the Tampa Bay
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Rays had a three to one lead in the bottom of the 10th inning.
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So it's a one, one game. They tied in the seventh there
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down 1 nothing. They tie it and again, we're
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holding the Rays like plus 1:30. So pretty big juicy dog payout
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here. If the Rays can hold on, they
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get a 3-1 lead. They go to the bottom of the
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tenth, they bring in Aaron Brooks.
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No, not Aaron Brooks the quarterback.
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Who who's he with? The Saints Aaron Brooks, the 36
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year old journeyman relief pitcher and I was looking up
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Aaron Brooks career stats not very good in his career 9 and 16
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record 6.48 ERA. Why is this guy still in the
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bigs? And again we got the reason why
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we wish he wasn't in the bigs because he proceeded to give up
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a walk off Grand Slam to Dalton Var show of the Toronto Blue
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Jays. So that was that was a killer
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there because Braves coming through and rays coming through
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two and one with some plus money dogs.
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We're we're cooking with a good night.
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And then, of course, you're leading 31 bottom of the tenth.
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You put you put the bases loaded, give up a walk off
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opposite field Grand Slam. So that really hurt you.
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We we could smell that braze that rays plus 1:30 and then it
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evaporated up in smokes. That one really hurt feeling
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like you're going to win there and then completely blowing it
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with again, I'm sure Aaron Brooks is a fantastic guy, a
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great man, but no business in the big leagues.
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I'm looking literally if you want you want some fun, go to
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Amazon or go to ESPN. Just type in Aaron Brooks, the
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Rays pitcher and look at his career numbers.
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Like how is this guy still in the big leagues and Tampa as a
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good organization? What is he doing trying to save
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a game three to one in the 10th inning.
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So that just was annoying. The other was the Phillies
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couldn't come through three to one loss to the Red Sox.
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That was a one one game. And then say Don Raphael hit a
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pinch hit two run Homer to lose. So 1 and 2 -, 0.82 units with an
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absolute Backbreaker. Killer Rays coughing it up.
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There should have been a win. But either way, guys, that's
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baseball as they say. Sometimes you get walk off wins,
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sometimes you get walked off on. But the beauty of baseball is
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it's a long season. A lot of gay, a lot of days, a
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lot of games. So let's see if we can get right
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back into the green here for today.
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So that being said, let's talk about our 3 plays for tonight.
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I don't want to start off with a 6:45 PM Eastern Time first
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pitch, the Philadelphia Phillies visiting the Boston Red Sox.
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Let's talk line, move, split system matches give you my play
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for this one. So this is the rubber match of a
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three-game interleague set. The Phillies are 20 and 23.
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They won the opener 2 to one, came through as a -, 135 road
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favorite. Then we have the Red Sox who are
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18 and 24, bounce back with A31 win last night, cashing as a -,
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130 home favorite. So pitching match up here for
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tonight. We got the Phillies going with
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the lefty Jesus Lizardo. He's three and three with a 5.77
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ERA. Red Sox, meanwhile, going with
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the fellow southpaw Ranger Suarez.
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Former Philly going up against his old team.
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He's two and two 2.77 ERA this year.
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So what have you seen across the market?
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Will this game open Philly? Let's round a -, 115 -, 120 road
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favorite. Red Sox are on a + 100 - 105
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home dog. So basically, Philly opens a
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very, very slight favorite and the public is leaning a little
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bit on Philly. Nothing huge, but 55% of money
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line bets are laying it with the Phills.
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But here's the thing, even though a slight majority tickets
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are on Philly, we haven't seen Philly get up to -125 -, 130.
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No, the lines gone the other way.
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We've basically seen this line fall toward a pick'em.
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So we've seen Philly go from around -120 down to -110 Red Sox
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simultaneously plus 100 to now -110 we are basically looking at
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a pick em game -110 both sides. You might be able to find Red
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Sox minus one O 5, but Red Sox are also -115 at some shops.
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But all intents and purposes open as a slight Philly
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favorite. Now it's a pick em game.
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This would technically be a reverse line move, 45% of money
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line bets at DK. However, they are getting 53% of
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money line dollars and you're seeing this line move toward
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Boston. If you go over at Circa, good
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sharp split here, 83% of money line bets, 96% of money line
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dollars going on Boston. So a really good indicator of
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big Vegas smart money out in the desert.
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Also going Red Sox, which would align with that line move now
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Red Sox slightly better bats overall hitting 236 on the year,
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313 on base percentage. Phillies hitting two, 32299 on
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base percentage. But one thing I always like to
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do, and I recommend you guys do it as well, you know, when
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you're looking at 2 lefties going head to head, just do a
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quick search and go to MLB.com. You can Google, you know,
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batting average versus lefties. Just see how each team performs
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against lefties, and the Red Sox have the edge here.
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The Red Sox are hitting 271 against lefties this year.
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Believe it or not, that's the first or best MLB average
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against lefties. Meanwhile, Philly's hitting
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2:15. That ranks 25th.
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So Philly is one of the worst teams against lefties.
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Red Sox are one of the best. Ranger Suarez.
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He's allowed zero earned runs in two straight starts and four of
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his last five. So he started to pitch very
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well. Knock on Woody's on the bump
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tonight. Also Lizardo.
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On the other hand, 6.75 ERA and two May starts is giving up
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seven earned runs and 9.1 innings pitched.
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And also the Red Sox little bit of an edge in the bullpen.
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They have a team ERA of 3.22. That is the 4th best MLB bullpen
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ERA. And then we have Philly 3.96
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that is 15th. So I'm going Red Sox here.
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Guys again, kind of rotated in this series, you know, Philly
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Red Sox. But tonight you open Philly
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short favorite the lines moving to Boston.
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They got a good bet split at DK and Circa.
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They got better bats against lefties.
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Suarez has pitched well. And oh, by the way, we have a
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6%, nothing huge, but a 6% sharp mush edge on the Red Sox from
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our friends at Juice Reel. And we also have all three
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rhythm recommendations, the AI models all lighting up in favor
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of Boston, including one of which is a green star smart
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signal recommendation. So first bit on the board for me
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guys, I took the Red Sox here. I found Boston minus one O 4 at
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Bally bet shop around. I think you can find out minus
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one O 5, maybe a bet MGM or FanDuel, but a lot of other
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books are -110 even -115 so try to get as close to even money as
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you can. I'm taking a shot on the socks
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tonight. Let's go, Suarez, next one for
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you, 7:00 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
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Let's go back to Atlanta where the Atlanta Braves are hosting
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the Chicago Cubbies. Now the Braves come in with an
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incredible record, 13 or sorry, 30 and 13 on the year.
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They've taken the first two games of this three-game series.
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They won the opener 5:00 to 2:00 as a -, 125 home favorite.
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They won again last night 4 to 1 as a + 100 home dog.
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So a pitching matchup tonight. The Cubs, who are 27 and 16,
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they're going with the ready Ben Brown.
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He's one and one with a 1.82 ERA.
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And the Braves, meanwhile, going with the lefty Chris Sale, 6 and
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two, 2.2 O ERA. So just in across the market.
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Well, this game opened Atlanta around a -, 150 home favorite
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Chicago A + 130 row dog and sharps absolutely hammering the
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Atlanta Braves. Braves are hot.
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They've taken the first two. Sharps like him to go for the
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sweep, especially with Sail on the bump because we've seen
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Atlanta get steamed up -150 now up to around -180 at circa 55%
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of money line bets. But nearly 80% of money line
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dollars are on Atlanta. So it tells us big money out in
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the desert. Going with the Braves here.
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Also mention this. I am on Atlanta, just on the
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money line. I got the Braves -170 at the
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score. Formerly ESPN bet.
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Shop around a lot of books -175 now -180 But if you are, if you
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do want to be bold, I did notice sharps hit the Braves run line
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-1 1/2 so they got to win by two or more.
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At plus 125 Braves are getting 69% of spread bets. 86% of
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spread dollars at DK Braves also would match as a non division
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favorite. So lack of familiarity
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benefiting the better team and a correlative betting favorite.
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Low total, you're around a -, 180 favorite and a low total
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game of seven and a half and looks like it could be a low
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scoring game because that 7 1/2 is juiced under -115 at quite a
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few books. Braves hitting 285 at home, 274
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against righties. Both of those numbers are first
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best tops in baseball. Chris Sale at home this year, 4
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and O 0.75 ERA. So let's hope he continues to
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pitch well at home and the Braves.
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Meanwhile, 23 and eight. That is a 74% win rate, a 25%
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ROI as a favorite this year. So they're favored.
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They tend to come through. That is the best chalk record in
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baseball. So we have an opening number
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around -150 we're up to around -180 We got good splits, system
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matches, better bats, sales been great at home.
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And oh, by the way, a 4%, nothing huge, but a 4% positive
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sharp mush edge on the Braves from our friends at Juice Rail.
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So next bet for me, guys, go with the Braves -170 again, shop
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around. That's from the score.
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Other books closer to -180 Last bit of the night.
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Staying up late. That means I'll have the the
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late night duty for for my daughter who's almost two months
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old. Can you believe it?
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I remember the day she was born again, again.
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You know, if you have like a 20 year old kid, you say that and
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you're like, Oh my God, I remember.
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OK. I remember literally just two
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months ago she was here and now she's two months old already.
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Incredible. But usually I do the midnight
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shift, the feeding and, you know, holding her and and
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sweating, sweating a late night game.
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It's not our Padres, but I'm look toward the Dodgers game
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tonight. San Francisco Giants at the LA
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Dodgers, 10:10 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
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This is the final game of a four-game series.
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The Giants are 18 and 25, but they did win the first two games
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of the series. They won the opener, 9:00 to
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3:00 as a + 155 row dog. And unbelievably, second game of
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the series. They won six to two.
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They were plus 270. Anyone have the Giants in the
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second game of the series? That is one heck of a payout.
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Dodgers meanwhile, 25 and 18. They did bounce back with a four
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nothing win last night came through as a - 250 home favorite
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covered the run line as well. Now in the series finale for
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tonight, we got the Giants going with the righty Landon Roop.
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He is five and three with a three-point O 9 ERA.
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Dodgers, meanwhile, going with the righty Emmett Sheehan.
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He's two and one 4.79 ERA. So what have you seen across the
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market? Will this game open Dodgers
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around a -, 165 home favorite San Francisco around a + 145 row
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dog? Even though it's kind of a, you
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know, relatively big number, it's actually not that big when
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it comes to Dodgers games. Again, you know, they were -250
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last night, routinely, they're 200 or more.
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But they open -165 pros are laying it with the the Dodgers
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here to get a win and earn a series split because Dodgers
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have gotten steamed up -165 now up to around -180 circa is
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showing 47% of money line bets, but 71% of money line dollars on
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the Dodgers. So good low bets, higher dollar
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split on the Dodgers here from the sharps in the desert,
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Dodgers would have coral to betting value favorite low
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total. So total in this game is 8.
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A lot of books are juiced under -115 So if your amount of
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expected runs scored more likely to come from quote UN quote that
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better team. This is the angle that I wanted
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to mention because again, Dodgers typically -200 or more
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at home when the Dodgers are -190 or less, and they are a
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home favorite since 2022, big sample at this point, they are
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one O 1 and 5366 percent, 8% ROI.
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So it goes to show you, you know, sometimes you want to bet
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on the Dodgers, but they're -220 -, 300 and you're like, OK, they
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may win, but I don't really want to lay that big of a number.
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Well, when they're less than -190 they're winning 2/3 of the
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time and producing a near 10% ROI.
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And that's the spot obviously they're in tonight.
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Going to bank on the Dodgers bats hopefully getting to Landon
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Roop. They're hitting 263 as a team,
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342 on base, 212 runs scored. San Franz hitting 240-3290 on
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base, 145 runs scored. Dodgers hitting 264 against
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righties this year. That's second best in baseball.
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G men are hitting 241 against righties, that ranks 15th.
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And the Dodgers been pretty good at home, 14 and 10.
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I mean, any other team, 14 and 10 at home, they'd be happy.
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Dodgers, actually, you know, you'd think they'd be a little
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bit better at home, but the Giants are 8 and 13 on the road.
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So we opened Dodgers as a favorite.
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They'd become more of a favorite.
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They got a good split at Circa system matches, better bats.
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They've done well in this spot based on the home favorite price
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being below -190 and oh, by the way, we have two Rhythm
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recommendations, both lighting up on the Dodgers here.
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So the AI model from Rhythm also likes the Dodgers.
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So add it all up here guys going dodgers now I used a bet MGM
15:00
coin boost. So when anytime you log into
15:03
your app, we're always used to just shopping for the best
15:05
number using our odds logic, live odds page.
15:08
But when you shop for the best price, you also want to take
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into account, OK, who's giving me a boost?
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Who's giving me a bonus here? So if you just basically
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sometimes you have to activate it or hit accept or bet now, but
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I was able to get dodgers -175 down to -167 using a bet MGM
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coin boost. So I'm on dodgers -167 but
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again, shop around. Lot of books now closer to -180
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So Red Sox, Braves, Dodgers try to get 2 out of 3 eek out a
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winning night. So that about does it for
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episode 512 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
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powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
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where we wrap things up. And I always start first by
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saying thank you, thank you for listening, thank you for tuning
15:53
in, thank you for grinding with me in the arena every night
15:56
through the UPS and the downs, the good and the bad, the great
15:58
winners, the terrible walk off Grand Slam losers.
16:01
Can you believe that? Unbelievable.
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But anyway, we show up every day with a positive, realistic,
16:07
cautious, but optimistic and you know, just kind of matter of
16:11
fact approach, trying to bet games with our head and not our
16:13
heart. And for that I'm very proud.
16:16
But if you do enjoy this pod, you want to help me grow this
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pod, please do a couple very easy things cost you nothing.
16:22
Give the pod a five star review on Spotify or iTunes.
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Click the follow button, recommend the pod to a friend,
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retweet the pod when I put it out on Twitter.
16:30
Any or all those things we very much appreciated.
16:33
Next, if you enjoy the style of sports betting, data-driven
16:36
sharp contrarian betting, focusing on line moves, bet
16:39
split system matches, taking a contrarian approach, focusing on
16:43
what the market and the numbers are telling us, not following
16:45
our gut and our bias and our favoritism.
16:48
If that style betting has appealed to you, you want to
16:50
learn more about data-driven betting.
16:52
You got Father's Day coming up. You don't know what to get your
16:54
dad or your uncle or whoever. You know what you should do.
16:58
You should go to Amazon.com and type in the everything guide to
17:01
sports betting or type in the NFL Sharp Betting playbook. 2
17:05
books that I've written very proud of both got some great
17:08
insights and once you bring them the sports book, I'll meet you
17:11
there. I'll sign them for you.
17:11
I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale and we get, I don't know, we
17:15
get some cotton candy and cracker jacks.
17:17
We'll bet some baseball together tonight.
17:19
Next, if you haven't done it yet, you got to go download
17:22
rhythm and juice reel, my two favorite sports betting apps,
17:25
Rhythm for their AI backed models and predictions for game
17:28
bets and player props. Juice reel some of the great
17:30
features you can get the Robo Jackson best bet picks, the
17:33
sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays the shop for the
17:36
best line futures. You can sync up your sports
17:38
books, get a running report card of your action, get your CLV
17:41
meter there to let you know if the line is moving in your favor
17:44
or against you once you bet it leading up to to game time.
17:48
And you can also support the pod.
17:50
Again, the pod is free. I got a tip jar.
17:53
All you got to do is drop in a $5.00 bill or better yet $4.99,
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although it may go up to 999. I'm telling you guys because I
18:00
think it's worth it with the insights how you can get all
18:03
those plays for 5 bucks a week. And again, it's a tip jar
18:06
because the pods free. You value the insights.
18:08
I I hope you feel like the the insights are worth less than a
18:12
dollar a day, which I think they are.
18:13
But download rhythm, download juice reel, give them both a
18:16
five star review in the App Store.
18:18
Next you have a live odds page. Well, if you don't have one, you
18:21
need one. It's such a great and important
18:23
tool for betting on sports. I tweeted out earlier today at
18:27
Josh under score insights how if you are into basically, you
18:31
know, live betting or live in game wagering, maybe you got a
18:34
favorite. You didn't play him before the
18:36
game, but they're down 3 nothing and they close -200 OK what's
18:40
what are the odds that favorite comes back and wins?
18:43
Or maybe they you know the total was 7 1/2 and it's a three to
18:48
three-game in the first inning and the live line total is now
18:50
12 1/2. OK, maybe buy low take the under
18:53
12 1/2. But if you are a not only a pre
18:56
flop better, which we all are, but you like to get down in
18:58
game. Odds logic is the best live odds
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page around. It gives you the live lines and
19:03
update with every pitch. You can also compare the opening
19:06
line to the current line. Identify which direction the
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line is moved, pull the line history shop for the best
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number. Of course, identify Steam.
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It's all available to you when you use Odds Logic.
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So if you use this special link, Odds logic.com/josh 123, that's
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going to give you a 7 day free trial and 50% off your first
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month of service. Again, Odds logic.com/josh 123.
19:31
So that about does it for Episode 512 of the ASG Pod on a
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big Thirsty Thursday. As always, guys, two final
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thoughts. One, whether I see you at the
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Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River and Rhode Island, the
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Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
19:46
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park,
19:48
Casino, MGM Springfield or the Nash and my neck of the woods on
19:52
the border of Massachusetts and Nashville, New Hampshire.
19:54
They're out in the desert where the true grinders get down,
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where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the lowest
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juice possible is found at the South Point or sweat and sharp
20:02
contrarian plays. Jumping in the stadium swimming
20:04
pool when you cash a big ticket at Circo wherever, maybe you're
20:07
going to walk up to me, you're going to show me a nice Braves
20:10
plus money winner whatever you do.
20:12
So, you know, RIP up that race ticket.
20:14
Can you believe Aaron Brooks, complete journeyman nobody
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pitcher again, probably a great guy.
20:19
What's he doing trying to save a game with a career ERAI forgot
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what I told you of like of like 8 Again, awful walk off loser.
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But either way guys, first one's on me, next one's on you.
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We'll post about the book. Sweat sharp contrane plays all
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night long. So as always, coming off a one
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and two or A2 and 1A winning night, a losing night, a hot
20:38
streak, a cold streak, whether we can't miss or we can't, you
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know, cash a ticket for the life of us.
20:43
Again, there's ebbs and flows, there's ups and downs when it
20:46
comes to sports betting. What you can control is making
20:49
sharp, data-driven plays with your head and not your heart.
20:51
So if we can follow that model, find games that fit our
20:54
philosophy against the public, with the house, with the pros,
20:57
flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV, if we can do that,
21:01
we're going to be successful sports bettors.
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So if everyone has a great Thursday night, be right back at
21:06
it tomorrow to finish up the week strong with episode 513 of
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the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by
21:13
Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
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great Thursday night.