Latest / UK Column Radio / How the US-China "Marriage" Went Sour | Einar Tangen
Transcript
- 0:01Hello and welcome to another episode of the Silk and Steel
- 0:04Podcast. I'm your host, Carl Zah.
- 0:07Today we have a very special guest all the way from Beijing,
- 0:12Einar Tangen. For my audience, we may not be
- 0:16familiar with you, although I don't know why they wouldn't be.
- 0:19Could you please do a brief intro of who you are, what you
- 0:23do Einar? OK, well, I've done all the bad
- 0:26things, Carl. I'm an American citizen.
- 0:29That doesn't make me bad. It's actually the good.
- 0:31Lots of good people there, somebody likes to say.
- 0:36And I was a lawyer, investment banker, that politician, real
- 0:41estate developer, serial entrepreneur.
- 0:46So I did a lot of things in the USI moved to China about 20
- 0:49years ago, and it's not coming up to 21 years.
- 0:52And I didn't come here to make money.
- 0:56I just came here because I thought if there's going to be
- 0:59renaissance in my lifetime, it would be here.
- 1:01And so far, no disappointments. So I started a business that did
- 1:07interiors, architecture, things like that along with my partner.
- 1:13And then I've been transitioning for the last 15-16 years now to
- 1:19media. I'm a freelancer.
- 1:21I don't work for anybody in particular.
- 1:23I mainly because they won't have me, you know, and, and I, I've
- 1:28just kind of done it. It started off with one show on
- 1:32CGTN called Dialogue, and now I do.
- 1:37I don't know about 14 shows a week, including articles and
- 1:41radio shows and television, but it's I, it's unusual in the
- 1:45sense that I do it for any given year over 50 different
- 1:49television stations. So I I might not, I might not,
- 1:52might not be deep, but I'm very broad.
- 1:56Well, I, my audience, have made multiple requests for you.
- 2:00And then I remember, wait, I have idars.
- 2:03I have Einar's WeChat from two years ago when I met you on the
- 2:08Great Wall. Of China.
- 2:10So. You, you, your audience needs
- 2:12better taste. That's all I can say.
- 2:16But I I appreciate the compliment.
- 2:18The reason I, I invited you, Einar, is because I, I know you
- 2:22have your pulse on kind as AUS China relationship, particularly
- 2:28in the last 20 years, the time you lived in China and you kind
- 2:32of seen the up and up and down of the US China relationship in
- 2:37the last 20 years. So the first question I have for
- 2:41you is what happened? I mean, like, like there was a
- 2:46time I remembered there was a time there was optimistic
- 2:50engagement. You know, Obama had proposed G2.
- 2:55You know, there's this talk of Chi America, right?
- 2:58Chi America, the 22, the the beast that's intertwined.
- 3:02You'll never be separated. And certainly now it's all
- 3:05decoupling trade war and US. China is our number one
- 3:10competitor. We must be China in everything
- 3:13from AI to, I don't know, to, to, to, to space to space race.
- 3:18What happened? What would like like?
- 3:21Can you maybe walk us through what do you think happened?
- 3:25Well, you know, think of it as a marriage.
- 3:28You know, America went in kind of like the woman does and says,
- 3:32you know, I'm going to marry you for what I can make you into.
- 3:37I'm going to change all your bad habits, get rid of that filthy
- 3:40communism and get you back into the fold.
- 3:44You know, our marriage is going to be one that changes you.
- 3:47And, and China was like, oh, you know, they, they, they were in
- 3:51awe of the United States, especially the financial side.
- 3:54And they said, we, we can learn from you.
- 3:57And so it all starts off and really in 2001 before that, when
- 4:01they're negotiating China's entrance in the WTO.
- 4:06So, you know, at at the time there is this hoax now, but they
- 4:09were very, very different. OK.
- 4:11So, you know, you know, man marries a woman for who she is
- 4:15at that moment, and the woman marries the man in terms of what
- 4:18she's going to make him into. And and this was kind of that
- 4:22classic situation. The US thought that by
- 4:25introducing capitalism, you know, free market ideas and
- 4:29things like this, that democracy would soon follow, that the, you
- 4:34know, literally the communist government would either melt
- 4:36away or there'd be a revolution and they would be kicked out and
- 4:40things like that because there's only one solution in the world.
- 4:43And, you know, this is the the sense of American
- 4:47exceptionalism. American is exceptional because
- 4:50it believes in the tenants of, you know, liberal democracy.
- 4:54A ballot box and free speech are the only thing that counts in
- 4:59China. They have a slightly different
- 5:00view. They, they, they say, well, you
- 5:03know, it, it free speech doesn't get action, OK.
- 5:06And a ballot box doesn't create a good government.
- 5:09And as a result, they're saying, no, we have one party and we
- 5:16expected to move things forward. Well, if you look at, since
- 5:192001, China's been able to do that.
- 5:23So that's why you have, in terms of China, very high approval
- 5:26rating by the people. They have not collapsed Chinese.
- 5:32The Communist Party is even more strongly in control now than it
- 5:36was in 2001. And it's not a control in the
- 5:41sense of, oh, you know, there's a machine gun.
- 5:43They had every door, things like that.
- 5:45If you come here, you'll understand that this is
- 5:48extremely open society. You can walk around safe.
- 5:52You can walk around at 4:00 AM in the morning.
- 5:55I see women don't ask me what I'm doing at 4:00 AM in the
- 5:58morning. It's all hot.
- 6:01No, don't ask. OK, I won't tell.
- 6:03But, you know, literally coming home late from a dinner or
- 6:07something like that, I see single women walking along the
- 6:09street confidently and there are men passing them by.
- 6:12They don't like, you know, side to the side or something like
- 6:15that. They just keep walking.
- 6:17It's very normal. I mean, that's, it's just
- 6:19something that I'm not used to in the United States and I've
- 6:21lived in different parts of it. And it's not that the US is bad.
- 6:25I'm just saying that there's different expectations.
- 6:28So in Chinese society, they expected everything to be safe.
- 6:32They want opportunity and they want growth.
- 6:35And so far, the the current government and its system has
- 6:40been able to deliver that. In the US, we insist that we
- 6:45have the right system. But right now, you know, things
- 6:48aren't great, Carl. I mean, I, I, I never thought
- 6:50I'd see the day when we have federal troops and National
- 6:55Guard, you know, in Campton cities across the United States,
- 6:59Democratic cities or they Republican things.
- 7:01I don't care if it was a Democratic president and
- 7:04Republican cities. This is wrong.
- 7:07This is, this is not democracy. It is, I don't know what it is.
- 7:11It's in liberal democracy and we seem to be going the wrong
- 7:14direction. But we are convinced that, you
- 7:18know, whatever China's doing is bad.
- 7:19When it they succeeded, we start saying, oh, they cheated.
- 7:23Well, how did they cheat? Well, they stole jobs.
- 7:26Well, no, they weren't. My, my family was in business.
- 7:30We built submarines in World War 2.
- 7:33When I first came to China, every 3rd crane, you know, a
- 7:38tall high rise crane had the name of the company my great
- 7:42grandfather was involved with. And you know, it was they,
- 7:47they're, they're going great guns.
- 7:49They, they've done all these things.
- 7:51So they, they have progressed. And this idea that they stole
- 7:57jobs. No, it wasn't.
- 7:58There were opportunities in, in China.
- 8:00And quite frankly, it wasn't just the, the US they lost jobs
- 8:06is also Europe and why the big companies saw the opportunity to
- 8:11get lower costs. And, you know, then after a
- 8:15while they realized, well, geez, there's 1.4 billion people here.
- 8:19This is a market. So it started off with low cost
- 8:23manufacturing, then it became a market and jobs went there.
- 8:26And it wasn't really a choice. You know, if, if, if I as an
- 8:30American, I, I don't know any American company or any kind of
- 8:35guy I respect who said I just want to move jobs to China.
- 8:38That wasn't the goal. The goal was how are we going to
- 8:41stay in business? If I don't move, my competition
- 8:45does. Guess what?
- 8:46I'm out of business. All the people that I employ
- 8:49will be out of a job. So in order to save the company,
- 8:52we're going to have to make some sacrifices.
- 8:54And part of those are going to China.
- 8:56Now it's not just going to China, it's going to Vietnam,
- 8:59India, Bangladesh, you name it, anywhere where they can produce
- 9:02more cheaply and keep up with the competition.
- 9:05So you you have this situation of unmet expectations on the US
- 9:11side, they did feel that they were defeated.
- 9:13They wanted to cheat it. They they wanted to change China
- 9:17and it hasn't changed. In fact, it's gotten stronger
- 9:20and more powerful during the in the meantime.
- 9:23And from China's side, they're just like, why are you trying to
- 9:28pressure us? What, what, what is it that we
- 9:30have done? We follow the playbook and we
- 9:33were just better at it. We we have all this planning.
- 9:36We do. We have five year plans and then
- 9:39every year we have a checklist. We have to have a report card.
- 9:42What did we do last year? What are we promising to do next
- 9:46year? And then that has to be reviewed
- 9:48on a yearly basis. Can you imagine if Congress had
- 9:52any of these governments actually had to, you know, stand
- 9:55there and say, OK, last year you said you're going to do XY and
- 9:58Z. Did you do any of them?
- 10:01Well, you know, I was in politics, you know, had to
- 10:05sometimes write those speeches where it's kind of like, yeah,
- 10:09well, we promised that. But, you know, they're
- 10:10intervening circumstances in China.
- 10:13There aren't. They don't stand for a lot of
- 10:14excuses. The people say you either did or
- 10:16you didn't. So there's a great expectation.
- 10:20But that also creates a lot of pressure, you know, one party
- 10:23government, and there's no one to blame.
- 10:26You understand? I mean, in America, you can no
- 10:29matter how badly you do, you just say, oh, the other guy
- 10:32would have done worse, OK. Or it's not my fault or it's,
- 10:36you know, let let them take a chance.
- 10:38And I'm sure that they will do worse than me and then I can get
- 10:41back in power because, you know, things so different very, very,
- 10:45very different systems, different expectations.
- 10:50And that's a long way of saying that things just have been
- 10:53working out. Well, the for for the longest
- 10:58time, you know, men, both sides have recognized this is one of
- 11:01the most important bilateral relationship in the world.
- 11:04And a lot of American companies, which I'm sure you are familiar
- 11:08with, are actually making a lot of money in China.
- 11:12You know, there's KFC on every street corner in China.
- 11:15I I seen it, I eaten it. The Chinese KFC actually tastes
- 11:19better than American KFC. This.
- 11:21Is the thing I can't explain to people.
- 11:24It's not only KFC, but if you go to a Pizza Hut, Oh my God, it's
- 11:30like a middle class dining experience.
- 11:32The the people are nice to you, the tables are clean, they give
- 11:36you the crusts are crispy, are really crispy.
- 11:39They're really, really good And and McDonald's a different
- 11:43experience when you're in China and they're nice to you at the
- 11:47counter and they don't. Want the free tip that was a
- 11:51free endorsement for pizza and KFC?
- 11:55Well, the. Young brands, you know, I threw
- 11:57in McDonald's to balance it you. Know what?
- 12:00Disclaimer, I owe no stocks in young brands.
- 12:03But what happened then? What happened?
- 12:04So like if American companies were making money in China, you
- 12:09know, like that they were profiting, why then this
- 12:13acrimonious turn in the relationship to continue this
- 12:16couple analogy that you use, you know, if if American companies
- 12:23are profiting in in China, what is driven this downturn in the
- 12:29relationship? Well.
- 12:31You know, Carl, you touch on a really good point there.
- 12:33I mean, in, in America, you know, business used to have a
- 12:37big hand in politics, but it's less now.
- 12:43And, and the reason is and, and the companies you haven't
- 12:46mentioned that are making money are the car companies.
- 12:48It's not so much that they produce and sell in China, it's
- 12:51that they produce their, their parts all right.
- 12:54And it's a lot less expensive. And when they sell them in the
- 12:58US and around the world. But you also have, you know, all
- 13:01the companies that sell shampoo, Head and shoulders, all these
- 13:04things, Cheerios, Oreo cookies, you name it, It's all here.
- 13:09We're at Coca-Cola, Pepsi, you name it.
- 13:13We have all our brands here. And they've been, you know,
- 13:16pretty much widely embraced by the Chinese side.
- 13:19So it's not that they're not making money here.
- 13:21In fact, they make a lot, tremendous amount of money in
- 13:24the hundreds of billions of dollars.
- 13:27But the problem is that in the United States, you go back to
- 13:301971, 61 percent, 72, I'm sorry, 61% of the American population
- 13:40was middle class. And they had expectations.
- 13:44And then slowly over the years, that has gone away.
- 13:48Yeah, there was some some who made it up into what they call
- 13:52the upper middle class, but a lot more fell off the train.
- 13:56So you're now talking about society that was measured in
- 14:002023 that said based on, you know, parity of what you could
- 14:06buy, basically only 40% of the population is there.
- 14:12So you, you know, and that's a, that's, you know, 50%, you know,
- 14:17we're, you know, we're talking huge numbers here of people.
- 14:22When you have America, when it has a large middle class, it, it
- 14:29does well because it's the number, if the number of voters,
- 14:33they First off, they, they feel attached to society.
- 14:36They're in the game, they have skin in the game.
- 14:38They don't want to see the country fail.
- 14:40They also have a sense that, you know, there are opportunities
- 14:44out there And, and listen, I'm doing OK.
- 14:46So it's, you know, I'm going to vote to do something for the
- 14:52future for my children and my grandchildren.
- 14:55But when you have 40% of the of the nation as middle class and
- 14:59they feel that they're struggling, you know, over 60%
- 15:03of Americans feel that they are living paycheck to paycheck.
- 15:08Yeah, they, they don't, they don't really feel that they have
- 15:11the luxury of saying, oh, let's vote for tomorrow.
- 15:13And he says, look, I, I have to have it now.
- 15:15I can't afford what I have. And I'm afraid that if anything
- 15:20goes wrong, I'll be, you know, pushed out the door.
- 15:22I'll perhaps it's my house, my car, my job.
- 15:26There's a lot of insecurity there.
- 15:28And you know, this is this isn't unlike what happened just at the
- 15:33COP 30 in Brazil. Everybody understands climate
- 15:38change is an issue except Donald Trump.
- 15:40But you know, the issue was you had all the oil producing
- 15:45countries just saying we can't give any more.
- 15:48We understand that there's a climate emergency.
- 15:50We're going to do some other things, but we're not going to
- 15:53get on this road to, you know, getting rid of fossil fuels.
- 15:57We, we, we just can't at this point.
- 16:00And it's, it's just kind of things.
- 16:02People are, you know, they're defensive.
- 16:04So they're voting for, you know, anybody who will say, yeah,
- 16:10I'll, I'll put a chicken in every pot and, you know, all
- 16:13this kind of stuff. So This is why you see the rise
- 16:16of populism, not only the United States, you see it across South
- 16:21America, Europe, also in Africa, around the world.
- 16:27People are making lots of promises that they can't
- 16:30possibly keep. People want to believe that
- 16:35they, you know, these simplistic solutions are going to, you
- 16:38know, make everything great. You know, like Mila in in
- 16:40Argentina, he talked a great game.
- 16:43It's simple. Everything's great now.
- 16:45Now you have a country that over 50% of the people are under the
- 16:49poverty line. So it wasn't easy.
- 16:52It wasn't wonderful. And, you know, the people are
- 16:56sucked, but unfortunately they just become more desperate and
- 17:00they're even more willing to listen to somebody else who
- 17:03says, yeah, yeah. No, no, I, I can solve it.
- 17:05The last guy was an idiot. I'm I'm smarter than he is,
- 17:08right. Well, unfortunately, it doesn't
- 17:11matter how smart or stupid you are, how the issue is the, the,
- 17:15the facts are or where they are. You know, the America, the debt,
- 17:21I mean, no one, we, we, we just listen to it going up and up $38
- 17:26trillion and rising and Donald Trump wants to add lots more.
- 17:31Is there isn't seem to be any, there's no, no plan by either
- 17:36party to address it. They say, oh, we'll, we'll take
- 17:40some of the money we took out of your pocket when we made you pay
- 17:43for tariffs because tariffs are paid by ordinary people who buy
- 17:48stuff. We're going to take that and
- 17:50reduce the debt. Well, that's just taxing
- 17:53basically poor people because they're the ones who get hit.
- 17:56If I'm making, you know, $1,000,000 a year, 2000 bucks,
- 18:01it doesn't kill me. But if I'm making, you know,
- 18:0550,000 and I have kids and a wife, 2000 bucks is really going
- 18:10to hurt me hard, especially since I am not making it the way
- 18:13I am. And you can see this in America
- 18:15in terms of people who are buying on pay now.
- 18:20All right, No, I mean, buy now, pay later for groceries.
- 18:26This means that they don't have a credit card any more.
- 18:28Credit card, you know, that either don't have credit cards
- 18:32or they don't have any access to any kind of, you know, credit
- 18:38allowance means they don't have any cash.
- 18:41This is really desperation because these people are going
- 18:45to pay more for those bananas and that that bag of rice or
- 18:49whatever that they bought because the, you know, whoever's
- 18:53advancing money is going to say, oh, we're going to have to
- 18:55figure that in and we're going to have to make a profit on
- 18:57that. So you, you have really, as I
- 19:02said in the beginning, you have very, very different
- 19:05expectations. Now.
- 19:06You have a a populace that wants to blame somebody, you know,
- 19:10who's at fault, who did this. Well, I don't think the, you
- 19:13know, the Democrats and Republicans are going to look in
- 19:16the mirror collectively and say, yeah, we screwed this up.
- 19:20We were, you know, we, we kept the dollar strong, which made
- 19:25our exports uncompetitive because we like spending money
- 19:31and we like borrowing it. And it was just so easy when the
- 19:34dollar was strong and, you know, everyone wanted to have whole
- 19:37treasuries. You know, we could just borrow
- 19:39money. It was, it was no big deal, but
- 19:42there's a cost to all that. And that, that cost has been
- 19:45that America's, you know, competitiveness has gone down.
- 19:49So rather than saying, oh, yeah, we, yeah, we probably screwed
- 19:53up, They're they're they're looking for somebody to think.
- 19:56So they blame each other, of course.
- 19:58And then when that gets tired, they start blaming others.
- 20:02And China's rise at the same time as the US is feeling that
- 20:07it's in decline. It's an easy scapegoat.
- 20:11We just say, oh, they, they did it.
- 20:12They, they, they took, they took our stuff.
- 20:16I always like this idea, you know, you know, Chinese coming
- 20:20over and stealing jobs in the middle of the night, exporting
- 20:23to, to China. How, how would that work
- 20:26exactly? Any event, It's I'm laughing,
- 20:30but you know, it's, it's, it's sad.
- 20:33You have a a world which is going in the wrong direction.
- 20:37If Donald Trump were really trying to do something, he would
- 20:40be in trying to increase trade, trying to increase figure out
- 20:44how US can use it. Advantages.
- 20:47I mean, we have so many advantages, Carl.
- 20:49I mean, you know, institutions of higher learning, basic
- 20:53research, science. We are able to attract people or
- 20:56used to be able to attract people from all over the world,
- 20:58The best and the brightest. They said, oh, go to America.
- 21:01There's a sense of opportunity. And now I don't know how many
- 21:06people. I mean, I, I talked to people as
- 21:09who used to say, well, my, my, you know, Chinese upper class
- 21:13people said I'm going to send my, my son, my daughter to
- 21:17America for education. Now they're saying they're not
- 21:21going to. It's just too dangerous.
- 21:24They don't feel welcome. And you know, it kind of wears
- 21:28on you when you you have a group of people just saying, you know,
- 21:30China's horrible and everything like that.
- 21:33Well, it's not the place you want to go and send your
- 21:35children. Yeah.
- 21:37So what I'm hearing is there's a distribution problem in the US
- 21:42and while the companies are actually profiting from
- 21:45globalization making tons of money like like Apple because of
- 21:50every like $500 or $1000 iPhone, whatever price is, you know,
- 21:57China actually only make a small fraction of that.
- 22:00I think the last data I think think China make about $10.00
- 22:03of. Well, it's actually about 45 if
- 22:06you include Hong Kong. OK.
- 22:09But out of 1000, you know less than 50 bucks.
- 22:12It's not exactly if you know. Yeah, the lion's share goes to
- 22:19Apple, but the problem that is that that lion's share of the
- 22:22profit goes to Apple shareholders, the Silicon Valley
- 22:27tech Bros. And you know, most of the
- 22:31average Americans who are actually losing job, of course,
- 22:34don't see any of that trickle down to them.
- 22:38And and as you say, politician looking for people to blame and
- 22:43China just happened to be a scapegoat.
- 22:45But this seems to be a vicious cycle though, because as China
- 22:49rise and the US going to decline, this kind of resorting
- 22:54to blame China is going to only going to intensify.
- 22:57I mean, that's what I've seen since 2000 O 8, the great
- 23:00financial crisis, I think. Is there any hope?
- 23:04Is there any light at the end of the tunnel for the US China
- 23:08relationship in this case? I, I, I actually, I, I am
- 23:13hopeful that at some point, I mean, America, if you look
- 23:15historically, we change when we're confronted by crisis.
- 23:20And I think Donald Trump is the crisis that's going to help us
- 23:23change. And what we need to change is
- 23:26not the other things we do. We, we do wonderful things.
- 23:29What we need to change is our attitude towards us, to the
- 23:32world that somehow if we create, if we start a war, we institute
- 23:37regime change or interfere in the politics of the country,
- 23:40that's OK. But if anybody tries to even
- 23:44whisper or get involved in our politics, No, no, it's the
- 23:48hypocrisy that's killing us. We we need to just suddenly say,
- 23:52OK, we, we do believe in the rule of law and institutions and
- 23:57we don't want the rule, you know, the law at the jungle,
- 24:00right? And then we have to stop doing
- 24:02it. We have to stop playing king of
- 24:04the hill, threatening to take over Canada and Greenland and
- 24:08you know, Gaza, Panama and now Venezuela.
- 24:13Stop bombing other countries, stop providing bombs.
- 24:16Stop, you know, start and stop doing these color revolutions.
- 24:21I mean, we always think it's going to turn out well.
- 24:24Well, guess what? You know, Arab Spring, we paid
- 24:26for it, but what did we get? And we got more problems.
- 24:31You know, more people turn towards terrorism, extremism and
- 24:35things like that because they feel that, you know, that the
- 24:38system is rigged against us and we're involved.
- 24:40So if we change our attitude and we just say, look, we're part of
- 24:44the world, it is in fact already multi polar, but we are a leader
- 24:49and we have assets and appetites that feed, you know, they're
- 24:53part of the world. I mean, American demand and it's
- 24:56less than 5% of the world's population, but we consume 20%.
- 25:00Take that away, it's going to have a serious effect, you know,
- 25:04and then with our educational institutions, I, I would have
- 25:06respected Donald Trump more if he had said, listen, we need to
- 25:10spot that moment, all right? We need to go into the future
- 25:14and the future is digital. We, we need to be on top of
- 25:21innovation, creating not only digital tools and products that
- 25:25are, that are that people need that also create productivity.
- 25:29I mean, because it's when you can do more with less, when you
- 25:34can only have 2% of your population producing more food
- 25:38than you can use. I mean, that's a productivity,
- 25:41Bruce. That means only 2% of your
- 25:42people have to, you know, provide the sustenance for an
- 25:46entire nation. If you can do that with other
- 25:48things, then the question becomes, you know, what do these
- 25:50other people do? I've always split things into,
- 25:55I'm not, you know, terribly smart.
- 25:57So I always think of things as well, what do I need to get by
- 26:00today? I need to eat.
- 26:02I need shelter. I need some clothing, especially
- 26:04that beautiful shirt you're wearing.
- 26:12And, and, you know, I need these basic things.
- 26:16And then I think, well, then there's a second economy.
- 26:18That's, that's my necessity. I, I can't get away from that.
- 26:21If I don't have that stuff, I'd die.
- 26:23Then the second part is how do we live together productively?
- 26:27And that economy is related to things like, you know, cities,
- 26:31the roads, sidewalks, all the things that allow us to to live
- 26:35together, sewer, water, communications.
- 26:39These are all very important because, you know, I get from my
- 26:41home to the factory and things like that.
- 26:44And that was only, you know, achieved through productivity.
- 26:47But then after that, all you have is choice.
- 26:51You know, whether I buy this tie or a different tie or have no
- 26:55tie, whether I go to a sports game or buy a video game.
- 26:59Whether I buy a T-shirt, a plain white one that costs a dollar in
- 27:03China and I buy it for $1.50, or I buy the same exact T-shirt,
- 27:08but it has, you know, a logo on it of a, you know, very
- 27:12expensive brand for $100. It's a choice.
- 27:15I don't, I don't really need either one.
- 27:17The first one would, you know, basically satisfy my, my, you
- 27:22know, absolute necessity. I need something to clothe
- 27:25myself with. But the second one is there.
- 27:27And that's what we're doing here.
- 27:30When you buy an Apple phone, it's not a necessity.
- 27:33You might think I have to have it, but if you didn't have it,
- 27:36you wouldn't die. You might not feel like I can
- 27:40hang out with my friends and no one respects me.
- 27:42Or you can make it into a big deal, but that's all in your
- 27:45head. So a large part of our economy
- 27:49today exists on this idea of choices.
- 27:54And I, I think that's probably going to continue and that a lot
- 27:57of this digital revolution, robots and the factories, things
- 28:00like that, though that is the future.
- 28:04And we will literally be able to satisfy our our personal
- 28:09necessities and the necessities of of living together, cities
- 28:14and roads and all that stuff, not using robots.
- 28:18And then it's, you know, the only economy that's left is this
- 28:21choice economy and how we do that.
- 28:24But Trump said, no, we're going to reindustrialize.
- 28:27Reindustrializing is not easy. It's really expensive.
- 28:31It takes years. It's not you don't create a
- 28:34factory in the middle of a cornfield and say, look, there
- 28:37are victory. That factory depends on the
- 28:40supply chain of stuff, you know, basic materials, added value
- 28:45materials, things like that. It's not going to produce
- 28:48everything in that cornfield. So as a result, you have to
- 28:51create centers and you know, the, the efficiency of the
- 28:56logistics and the supplies extremely important trying to
- 29:00discover this over time. They build these huge, these
- 29:05cities are based around industries.
- 29:08I remember going to a place called Kunshan in just outside
- 29:13of Shanghai. And this was 15 years ago, you
- 29:17know, and what was amazing to me is at that point, 2/3 of all of
- 29:23the laptops in the world were being made there.
- 29:26And I thought, wow, this is strange.
- 29:29Here we are in Shanghai. Yeah, it's near a river and
- 29:31everything like that. But, you know, I was expecting
- 29:34to do that. And then, you know, I, I, I
- 29:37walked around, I was writing a book about it.
- 29:39I was. I've been asked to examine why
- 29:42this particular county level city was so successful and what
- 29:48it came down to is if I wanted to build a new laptop completely
- 29:54from scratch, I could go to a guy and the plastics injection
- 29:57molding was across one St. the motherboard across the other
- 30:01street cameras, peripherals, everything that I needed
- 30:07monitors, including how to make a all the basic parts of
- 30:12monitoring all there. So I can literally walk around
- 30:15the neighborhood with two blocks and get everything that I
- 30:18possibly need. And it's really cheap because
- 30:20they're competing against other guys who are, you know, two
- 30:22blocks over. So you you can you can put
- 30:26together a prototype and really, really QuickTime and you can do
- 30:31it very cheaply and you're not spending extra money.
- 30:34I mean versus A roll. I mean, those guys, when I was
- 30:38chairman of the state's International Trade Council for
- 30:40the state of Wisconsin, they were down in Illinois, you know,
- 30:43and I, I remember I was asking about their, their times, but
- 30:47they would tell me, oh, yes, we can put a prototype together and
- 30:50wow, you know, 2-3 years, it'd be two or three months.
- 30:57No, that was an earlier time. Things like that.
- 31:00Motorola was at the top of its game at that point.
- 31:03I mean the Motorola phone, remember those big bricks?
- 31:06And then they made the star tech.
- 31:08I'm on my that's that star tech phone.
- 31:10I mean, that was the Apple phone of my generation.
- 31:13I mean, it was so small and you could just whip it out.
- 31:17You felt so cool having it. But you know, they were at the
- 31:20top of the game and then, and then they lost out.
- 31:23And the, and the reason is because, you know, these, they
- 31:26had other places where they could do it better.
- 31:28And you remember Apple wanted to put a factory in Texas and they,
- 31:34they, they thought they'll plop one down in the middle of Austin
- 31:38and they just had one supply chain disaster after another.
- 31:45I mean, everything they needed to build the phone had to be
- 31:48brought in from China just in time and it just didn't work
- 31:53out. So they closed it and wrote off,
- 31:54you know, millions of dollars because it just wasn't doable.
- 32:00It, you know, it sounded great. Well, we'll build a factory in
- 32:03Austin and people get employed and, you know, we can say it's
- 32:06American made and, and there's a desire to do that.
- 32:09It's not like they said, oh, we want to support China.
- 32:12Quite the opposite. You know, the people who make
- 32:14Apple phones are Americans and they designed them, well, not
- 32:17all Americans, but they're Americans by aspiration or
- 32:22Americans by by citizenship. But they were in this, in this
- 32:29position where they they just, it just wasn't feasible.
- 32:31How can we justify making a phone that costs three times as
- 32:34much in Austin as in China? It doesn't make sense.
- 32:38We can't, you know, all we have, all we do is erode our profit
- 32:43line, as you were saying earlier, and that that doesn't
- 32:45make the shareholders happy. They'll be kind of like, wait a
- 32:50SEC, explain this to me again. You're, you're producing a phone
- 32:55at my expense to say it's American.
- 33:01I didn't vote for that. I voted for profits.
- 33:03I invested in you because I thought you guys were smart and
- 33:06this doesn't sound very smart to me.
- 33:08So there's a lot of a lot of pushback on in terms of, you
- 33:12know, how the renter, the rentier class sees things.
- 33:16They want as much money as they possibly can as as quickly as
- 33:20they can and things like that. The the other part, and I think
- 33:23this is really important, is something called
- 33:25financialization. You know, we created a huge
- 33:31class of business graduates, You know, they went to B school.
- 33:37And the problem is that they, they really don't know much
- 33:39about the industries. For a while they they did very,
- 33:43very well. They would just go into a big
- 33:44company and they say, I have a great idea, take a line and just
- 33:49draw through the old spreadsheet.
- 33:51So everyone who was on that line, the spreadsheet is gone.
- 33:55And they say, oh, we're leaner and we're meaner and everything
- 33:58falls to the bottom line. Give me a big bonus.
- 34:01I'm a great guy. Look what I did for you, right?
- 34:05You, you, you idiots who think you know the business and have
- 34:07been working on it for, you know, 30 years.
- 34:10You just didn't understand that you all you had to do was take a
- 34:12pencil and run it through a line on a spreadsheet and you make
- 34:17profit. After a while, that got a little
- 34:20tough and these companies were not very competitive.
- 34:23They lost out on the people who actually understood the business
- 34:27and things didn't go well. So the next thing was, you know,
- 34:31this, this working stuff, you know, trying to understand the
- 34:36business and doing all this that's I don't know, I don't
- 34:40want to do that. How am I going to get rich doing
- 34:43that? You know, if I do this in 10
- 34:44years from now, maybe I'll get a decent bonus, but you know, it's
- 34:47going to take 10 years. I I want to be rich now.
- 34:51OK, So instead of betting, I'm putting money into companies and
- 34:57that and letting them grow, understanding them, letting them
- 35:00grow, grow markets, grow expertise, put money into
- 35:03research and development, things like that.
- 35:05So we're going to start betting on outcomes.
- 35:08So you know how how does this work?
- 35:11I OK, I think the Fed, the interest rate is going to go up,
- 35:15OK, And therefore I can make a bet, OK, based on that.
- 35:20And it's not only that I put up $10.00 of my own, What I do is I
- 35:24leverage it. So my $10 becomes $100 because I
- 35:28go out and borrow $90.00 from banks, right?
- 35:31Or whoever will give it to me. And then I make this big debt.
- 35:35And if it works out all right, I, I, I make a little bit of
- 35:39profit, but I'm based on a lot of money.
- 35:42OK, So all of a sudden, oh, oh, that big bonus, big bonus.
- 35:47And if it goes bad, well, you know what, we just make a bigger
- 35:51bet next time, right? It's like going in casino, you
- 35:54know, I'm going to play red black, all right?
- 35:57I'll play red, all right. And if I lose, I'll double down,
- 36:01OK. And I'll just keep doubling down
- 36:03until I win, right? And you know, what are the
- 36:06chances it's going to be, you know, a red for six times in a
- 36:10row, I mean, black for six times in a row.
- 36:12So it'll all work out. And then based on that, I get a
- 36:14big bonus because I covered all my losses.
- 36:18And I do it just by continually making bigger and bigger bets.
- 36:21But if you start looking at financialization, the amount of
- 36:24money that is now out there, it dwarfs the real economy.
- 36:29People are making these massive bets and at some point enough of
- 36:33them are going to go bad that they cannot be covered.
- 36:36Or the banks are in a situation where they they can't lend.
- 36:40And all of a sudden, you're going to see a rapid downturn.
- 36:44And, you know, the final phase of this, I mean, I was an
- 36:47investment banker prior to the financial crisis, 2008 nine, and
- 36:54this is in three or four. I thought, oh, my God, this is
- 36:57going in the wrong direction. Everyone's making fees, but no
- 37:01one's paying. It's, you know, the income
- 37:04hasn't caught up with Americans. They're just speculating.
- 37:08And at some point, you know, like tulips, they don't really
- 37:15it, it's not sustainable. And it did fall.
- 37:17And now we're in a in a similar situation where you have these,
- 37:25what is this stable coins, right?
- 37:27The the US government has a problem.
- 37:31Central banks other than Great Britain and Japan are reducing
- 37:35their holdings of U.S. Treasuries.
- 37:39And that's that's a problem because we, we're issuing more
- 37:43of them, we're issuing more debt and the existing debt, you know,
- 37:46people are selling well, that means that the interest rates
- 37:49are going to rise to attract people in.
- 37:51And that's what happens. So Besant and his crew has come
- 37:56up with this wildly great idea. We'll get stablecoins, so people
- 38:01will buy all right, U.S. Treasuries, right and then issue
- 38:06coins on them. So on the the day one, I started
- 38:09out with 100,000 or $100 million of and I buy treasuries and then
- 38:16I issue on the $100 million these stable coins.
- 38:19Well, what's the problem with that?
- 38:21I mean, all of a sudden people have bought the treasuries,
- 38:24right? And then they're using these
- 38:25coins. So you've increased the amount
- 38:27of money flowing around, right, 'cause they have the asset and
- 38:31then they issued it and then they're trading it.
- 38:33So this is great. It'll soak up a lot of things.
- 38:38But here's, here's the problem. U.S.
- 38:41Treasuries have been going down. They've lost about over 10% of
- 38:45their value since Donald Trump has been in office.
- 38:48And that's less than a year, OK. And his desire is to see those
- 38:54treasuries go down another 2030% because his feeling is, oh,
- 38:59look, if we devalue the dollar, then our exports are more
- 39:04competitive, right? I mean, it's simple.
- 39:07Any of you could do this, right? Well, it's not really that
- 39:10simple because the US dollar is the trade dollar.
- 39:13It's the trade dollar because it's supposed to be stable.
- 39:15It's not supposed to lose 2010 twenty 30% of its value.
- 39:20If it's going to do that, people are going to say, I don't want
- 39:23to hold it. Now, what happens on the things
- 39:26I buy the stable coins. I buy a, you know, $100,000
- 39:30worth of stable coins, but then the underlying asset, the
- 39:34treasuries go down by 2010 because I only have 8080
- 39:38thousand really. All right, I still have the same
- 39:41number of coins, but they're really only worth 80,000.
- 39:44And all of a sudden I might not like that.
- 39:46And then I want to cash them in. Then you have a run on the on
- 39:50the stable coins and then you know, there's going to be real
- 39:54difficulty. You know, the most of the
- 39:57treasuries in fact, are held by states, school boards, banks,
- 40:05people and their pension funds, insurance companies that a lot
- 40:09of them haven't taken the losses that are there already.
- 40:15And at some point they're going to have to realize those those
- 40:19losses. And if you know.
- 40:22God forbid one of these days somebody, you know, the, the rug
- 40:25pulls out and no one wants to buy our treasuries.
- 40:28What happens? That's going to be a real
- 40:31problem because it's, it's not, it's every part of society that
- 40:35would be affected to the tune of, you know, what is it, 38?
- 40:40So about $35 trillion. I don't know how we can take
- 40:45that hit. It's a good portion of our, of
- 40:49our GDP. Well, it's more than our GDP.
- 40:53So it's, you know, it's, it's boiling up into, to a problem.
- 40:57It's not something I'm jumping up and down about.
- 41:00It's just I don't understand why as we're running as fast as we
- 41:05can towards the Cliff, no one is saying stop.
- 41:08All right. The Cliff is not a good place.
- 41:11I don't think the rocks below are soft.
- 41:14OK, Great Britain did that with Brexit.
- 41:18Let's let's, let's jump over the Cliff.
- 41:20Maybe it's really nice down there.
- 41:22We don't know. Well, it's not working out very
- 41:25well for Great Britain. It looks like everybody's
- 41:29betting they can get extra pocket for money before that
- 41:33final jump. Everybody knows there's a final
- 41:35jump. Everybody's got to load up
- 41:38before the Cliff. Well, timing the market it it's
- 41:41it doesn't work well. This is how cynical though I've
- 41:45become. I have a very good friend that
- 41:47leading investment house and he said, well, I explained this to
- 41:53them and you know what the people said?
- 41:55They said, well, you know, we can make some money on this.
- 41:58We can go long in the dollar and then pay it back.
- 42:02You know, we can get these loans.
- 42:05We'll buy up the loans and then when the dollar defaults, all
- 42:08right, we'll pay it back and we'll make tons of money.
- 42:12It's kind of like the Titanic is sinking.
- 42:16Oh, good. Let's go Rob everybody.
- 42:19OK. Do you understand?
- 42:22The ship is going down in icy waters.
- 42:24We're all going to die. Let's forgiveness.
- 42:27Yeah. Yeah, we'll we'll figure that
- 42:28out later. Right now, I know there's gold
- 42:31and jewels all over there. A lot of rich people.
- 42:33Let's get the gold. You kind of, you know, you're
- 42:38looking at these guys going. Do you really understand?
- 42:41But it's exactly what you said, Carl.
- 42:43Everyone thinks that they can get with as much as they can and
- 42:48then hold up in New Zealand and wait for the world to collapse
- 42:53and then, you know, maybe come out and buy the rest and buy
- 42:56small countries to large yachts and, and, you know, be somebody.
- 43:01But I don't think they understand that you're really
- 43:04looking at a prolonged depression.
- 43:09We're having all that money unless it's in cans of soup and
- 43:14even Campbell's right now is having problems.
- 43:16I don't know if people want Campbell's soup in their in
- 43:19their larder, but you know, it's just, it's, it's not going to be
- 43:23the way they think. They think, Well, if I have a
- 43:24lot of gold or I have some real estate or something like that,
- 43:27it's all going to work out. I think it really comes down to,
- 43:30you know, food. Food is probably going to be the
- 43:34the gold of the future. You have food.
- 43:36Oh, well, what do you want? I have millions of dollars I
- 43:39could give you. No one else wants them.
- 43:42I I'll tell you, I'll give you $10 million for that whole case
- 43:46of baked beans. OK, well, you know, we laughed.
- 43:50But I mean, you know, we, we had situations like that in in post
- 43:55World War Germany and you know, tulips, you know, you look at
- 44:01what happened in the first, you know, big scam, you know, people
- 44:09traded their house for a few tulips and then after when the
- 44:13tulips or nothing, it's not like you can even eat them.
- 44:16So. Yeah, I think we have gone
- 44:19through a lot of structural problems the US is facing.
- 44:23I I think it would take, it might even take a generation to
- 44:27sort all those things out. But in the more immediate
- 44:31future, do you think there's now a temporary floor to the Sino
- 44:39American relationship in the aftermath of the recent XI Trump
- 44:45meeting in South Korea and then she Trump announced that he will
- 44:50visit China next year. Do you think this signals some
- 44:54sort of a reset or possible date town between US and China at
- 44:59this point? I'd, I'd love to think so, but
- 45:02I, I, I don't, I don't. And then the reason is because
- 45:05long term that nothing in Washington or the people that
- 45:08I've talked to, I'm on a lot of different talk shows.
- 45:12So I run into people who are, you know, they have Washington
- 45:15talk points and they still are, are, you know, dedicated to this
- 45:19idea that, that China needs to change that it, you know, it's
- 45:23the evil actor and things like that.
- 45:25So if I think you're evil, I'm not going to sit down and have
- 45:29dinner with you. I might say, OK, I'll be nice to
- 45:32him now, but I'm going to look for a weakness.
- 45:35And this is what exactly what you see.
- 45:36I mean, China has the US over a barrel because they didn't
- 45:41realize that, you know, rare earth elements were absolutely
- 45:46necessary for everything in in technology.
- 45:49Now, this is despite the fact that in 2008, the Pentagon did a
- 45:53white paper that said, hey, listen, we go, we go South with
- 45:57we go sideways with China. We can't build anything, OK,
- 46:00we're dead, we're done. OK.
- 46:02And then in 2010 to underline that, you know, Japan and also
- 46:08China get into it over at the territorial dispute.
- 46:11So that he said now use Akaku Islands and China doesn't
- 46:16announce it, but no rare earths are making it towards Japan.
- 46:20They finally figured it out. But after that it was a very
- 46:24cold piece. I mean, there has not been
- 46:27tremendous a lot of movement or good feeling between the two
- 46:30since that time. Now I I think that's exactly
- 46:33what's going to happen. Now you can see Trump saying,
- 46:36well, I can't afford to jettison my car industry, which would
- 46:40come to a stop without rare earth elements and certain types
- 46:43of metals, strategic metals that are necessary for a high tech
- 46:47products and things like this. And I, you know, I certainly
- 46:50don't want to jettison my military, which won't be able to
- 46:53to build anything. I mean, there was this great
- 46:55moment, Carl, you got it was just sitting there.
- 46:58He says when he announced the rare earth.
- 47:00And she says, OK, we're not going to Boeing is not going to
- 47:03sell you avionics. Avionics are all the things that
- 47:08go into an airplane that, you know, lets you control it.
- 47:12And the US is at the top of the game there.
- 47:14China has a nascent airplane company that they're developing
- 47:20and they they need to buy this. They don't have a, they can't
- 47:23replicate it at this point. I'm sure they will in the
- 47:26future, but they need it now. But here's the thing to build,
- 47:32for Boeing to build those avionics, they need rare earths.
- 47:37So in essence, he was saying I'm not going to sell you the stuff
- 47:41we can't make. How do you like that?
- 47:44Yeah. No.
- 47:45Now you're really sorry, you know?
- 47:47Yeah, I got you. I got you good, you know?
- 47:51Yeah. In Beijing, they're like
- 47:54scratching their head. I I don't understand this.
- 47:59Is this guy really saying that he's not going to sell us the
- 48:03stuff he can't make? OK, Duly noted.
- 48:10Oh, well, you know, I, I don't know what to say.
- 48:12You know, you kind of look at this thing they're going.
- 48:14Did he really say that? OK, well, but he also said he
- 48:18wanted, you know, thought putting bleach in your in your
- 48:20body would get rid of COVID-19 too.
- 48:23So I should no one is surprised, but really say so in terms of
- 48:28going back to it. I, I don't think really things
- 48:30change. There's a a kind of Mexican
- 48:33standoff as you well, that's going on.
- 48:38But I do, I mean, I'm not taking the pro China view here, but
- 48:42China isn't the one who's, you know, invading other countries,
- 48:45changing thanks doing all these things as saying it's going to
- 48:50take over some land. The only thing they're they're
- 48:52very touchy about is Taiwan and of course their borders and
- 48:56things like that. And and not, you know, they're
- 49:00very touchy about borders, but they're not, they're not
- 49:03thinking they're going to take over some land far, far away
- 49:06from China or anything like this.
- 49:08So I, I do think that it's China would be willing, I'd be very
- 49:13happy to sit down with the US who says, let's try to work this
- 49:17out, but not AG 2 here in China. The, the, you know, initial
- 49:23there were a few people said, oh, yeah, well, now we're
- 49:25serious guys. And I said, well, actually, this
- 49:29is just a thin ploy. What they're trying to do is cut
- 49:32out Russia. Fact is, we live in a multi
- 49:35polar world. This idea that you're just going
- 49:37to have two people, 2, two countries sit down and divide up
- 49:40the world. That's a fantasy that Donald
- 49:43Trump has, but it has nothing to do with China.
- 49:46China doesn't want anything from the world except peaceful trade.
- 49:49And you don't do that through AG two.
- 49:52You do that through, you know, multi polar entities.
- 49:56So where does China put its energy?
- 49:58Well, they put it into RCEP, the Regional Economic Comprehensive
- 50:04Partnership. This, this is the largest trade
- 50:08group outside the WTO, which is WTO is defunct because the US
- 50:12doesn't want to have it anymore. They put the money into bricks,
- 50:17right? And their time and effort and
- 50:19trying to having, you know, multilateral groups that are
- 50:22growing, SCO, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which
- 50:26concentrates on internal security for countries and trade
- 50:33that is growing rapidly. Those are where they're putting
- 50:36it. They're not, they're not
- 50:37clamoring. There was a point where they
- 50:39said, oh, a few, a few people said we should have AG2 sit
- 50:42down, you know, country to country.
- 50:44And they realized now that that was trap.
- 50:46They don't want to take on the mantle that the US had before.
- 50:50It's too expensive. And when the Berlin Wall falls,
- 50:54what happens? Unfortunately, the US gets all
- 50:58the problems and none of the benefits.
- 51:01And there was a kind of this expectation that, you know, we
- 51:05would be, you know, there could be a Victory Day parade
- 51:09everywhere and people would give us a lot of money and there'd be
- 51:11lots of business and all this kind of stuff.
- 51:14Actually, there wasn't. There's just a lot of problems,
- 51:16a lot of debts, a lot of issues to be done.
- 51:18And everyone was at the US store saying you got to help us.
- 51:21You're the most powerful nation. You're the richest nation.
- 51:24You have all the assets. We, we, we, we need you to, to
- 51:28help us. And unfortunately, you know,
- 51:31that didn't wear well with the US.
- 51:33And instead of being able to help them or help ourselves, we
- 51:37spent a lot of money in useless wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, you
- 51:41name it, Somalia, the list goes on and on and going.
- 51:44But I'll tell you child there, there is something that I think
- 51:47is hopeful and it it comes at a bad moment.
- 51:51You saw COP 30. Nothing was accomplished there
- 51:54except one thing. US didn't show up.
- 51:57So we don't believe it. It's a scam.
- 51:59Trump said it's a scam, a hoax. And I think there was a, a point
- 52:03where the global S realizes, look, the money they promised
- 52:09never ever comes. If it does come, it's in very
- 52:13small amounts. And the money is used basically
- 52:16to fund their corporations to do something for us.
- 52:19And it's not even clear that this is aimed at climate
- 52:23control. I mean climate action.
- 52:26I said at that some point global S realize resources are not a
- 52:31curse. The resources of 1 country can
- 52:35be a curse if they are exploited by others.
- 52:39But for instance, look at OPECOPEC decided in 73.
- 52:42No, no, no, no. They sent all their children
- 52:44prior to that to Harvard and Yale and they said, wait a
- 52:49second, we have the resource, they need the resource, we can
- 52:54determine the price. And that set off quite a
- 52:58kerfuffle that US gets off the gold standard, you know, the
- 53:03petrodollars things. But you can have the same thing
- 53:05whether you're trading in coffee or cinnamon.
- 53:09You know, look at the world today.
- 53:11There are four countries that produce 70% of the exported
- 53:14coffee in the world, yet the industry is controlled by 4
- 53:18companies that are either European or American.
- 53:22And when prices go up, guess what?
- 53:26Farmers get get shit on. And I hate to say that, but they
- 53:30do. They're forced to take less.
- 53:32They're barely subsistence. And now they're saying, Oh no,
- 53:36you have to take less because you know, we're under pressure.
- 53:38Well, what if things change? What if those four countries got
- 53:41together and said, look, we're going to create a coffee course
- 53:45and in this coffee pours, we're going to set the price.
- 53:47And the price is going to be that which allows our farmers to
- 53:51be paid a living wage and you know, one.
- 53:54And we're going to include money for our own development, and
- 53:57we're going to include money for climate action.
- 54:02We're not going to wait for empty promises anymore.
- 54:05We're going to simply just say, this is this is the way we're
- 54:08going to do it. We're going to copy a page from
- 54:10OPEC and we're going to control these resources and no longer be
- 54:13exploited. That would be a sea change.
- 54:16And it's not just in coffee or cinnamon or nutmeg or many other
- 54:20things. You get down to the metals.
- 54:23There's a few countries that are leading exporters of copper.
- 54:28You name it. If they come together and start
- 54:31creating these forces, it would effectively create a wealth
- 54:35transfer mechanism that had been going in one way towards the
- 54:38colonial powers and making it more even.
- 54:42You don't have to have coffee. If you don't want it, fine, OK.
- 54:45But if you want it, you're going to pay our price.
- 54:47And we're not going to line the pockets of the shareholders of
- 54:52these major companies. You know, somebody said to me,
- 54:55oh, you know, why are you saying that?
- 54:57You know, you, you, you, this, this would be terrible for
- 55:00China. I said no, it wouldn't because
- 55:03the fact is that China is a low cost producer of so many things,
- 55:07regardless of what the commodity price is.
- 55:09In fact, as prices go up, it's the most efficient manufacturer
- 55:13that does well because no one else says, well, I add more
- 55:17cost. Well, the cost is already too
- 55:19high. I want it, I want it cheaper.
- 55:22So I came under some criticism and said, well, you know why you
- 55:27saying that? And I said, well, this is good
- 55:29for everybody. It, it allows it.
- 55:32It might not be good for people who want to drink their, their,
- 55:35their mocha latte, you know, double cream, you know, whatever
- 55:39at Starbucks, they might have to pay 8 bucks.
- 55:43But at least it would start doing something for climate
- 55:47change, for global development, for the fact that we have a
- 55:51very, very only equal world out there.
- 55:54I mean, I I think it's horrible the way that, you know, the
- 55:58media will pit the people against their government.
- 56:02All right? Yeah.
- 56:05Those who are corrupt, sure, they, they need to be cleaned
- 56:07out. But, you know, this idea that,
- 56:10you know, the situation is going to change because you hold the
- 56:13sign and say I'm unhappy. No, I mean, the problems are are
- 56:18deep, structural. These countries have been
- 56:21exploited for generations for, you know, basically it's been
- 56:25the model for 600 years. It's time to change.
- 56:30And I'm, I was hoping and I'm still hopeful that COP 30 was a
- 56:35wake up call to these countries to say we, we cannot rely on the
- 56:39US or even Europe or anybody else.
- 56:42We're going to have to do things for ourselves.
- 56:45Because I, I think truthfully, that's the only way that you can
- 56:47have any progress in the world. And when that happens, I think
- 56:51the US realizes, OK, we're part of an ecosystem.
- 56:55We're not, not the one who, you know, preys on it.
- 56:59We're not a predator anymore. We, we are, you know, one with
- 57:03everybody else. We need to start acting like a
- 57:05responsible citizen instead of, you know, a hulking bully.
- 57:12You know, I could sit here and listen to you for hours, Einar.
- 57:15You know I can just geek out. On I can see you falling asleep
- 57:18already. I I, I tell you I can just
- 57:21bottle what I say into a pill. I could solve insomnia.
- 57:29For people who want to follow your work on whether on social
- 57:33media or elsewhere, where would they go, Einar?
- 57:38Somewhere else I have a sub stack Asian narratives and
- 57:45that's kind of where I, I do most of my stuff.
- 57:50It's, it's I, I, I don't know, I, I think there's a lot of
- 57:55smarter people, better people, better communicators like
- 57:58yourself out there. I just, I just put some
- 58:02anecdotal thoughts together once in a while and and put them down
- 58:05there. I'm obviously on television.
- 58:08If you are really bored and you can't sleep, you can go on to
- 58:12YouTube and there's zillions of minds.
- 58:14So tried to count them and says there's more than 5000 on there.
- 58:19I said oh gosh, sorry. For for my non American
- 58:24audiences, Einar has like the typical American self
- 58:28deprecating humor. So Einar is actually brilliant
- 58:33and articulate and this is reason why I have him on the
- 58:36show. And I hope to have you back
- 58:38because, you know, the US China story is like one of the most
- 58:43important bilateral relationship in the world.
- 58:46And this is a continually evolving story and you kind of
- 58:50being in deep in the weeds of it and with a lot of very funny
- 58:54anecdotal stories I'd like to hear.
- 58:57So I, I, I, I, I, I look forward to, to, to your, you coming back
- 59:02to the show after you are done with your jet setting ways, you
- 59:05know, to Doha. Oh, anytime.
- 59:07It's not. As I told you, I, you know, I go
- 59:10off for a speech twice a year. You just hit the 11 week.
- 59:14I actually could say, oh, I'm, I'm going there for a speech or
- 59:18something like that. No, I'm, I'm pretty available.
- 59:23This is this is all I do now is these, you know, the shows and
- 59:28things like that. And I do actually do quite a few
- 59:31speaking things, most mostly in in Asia, but a few in Europe and
- 59:35America. No, not in America, nothing in
- 59:38America, Little, little concerned.
- 59:42Did you see that thing where Hassam the, the social media
- 59:48guy? It was very interesting because
- 59:53here he is. They, they, this, the commentary
- 59:56went that when he was in Tiananmen, he had a, a group of
- 59:59people around him and you know, he was a foreigner and he was
- 1:00:03showing in Tiananmen. Tiananmen is very sensitive
- 1:00:05because they're concerned that somebody is going to go into
- 1:00:07Tiananmen and you know, you know.
- 1:00:10Light off a bomb or, or do something like that or, you
- 1:00:13know, do something on board. So they do have a police
- 1:00:16crawling it. And this is 24/7.
- 1:00:19So he got stopped for two minutes and, you know, he said,
- 1:00:23OK, what are you doing? OK, are you allowed to do this?
- 1:00:27You know, where, where are you coming from?
- 1:00:28All this type of stuff. And they made a huge deal out of
- 1:00:32this. And you know, they oh communist
- 1:00:36country, blah blah blah. Well, what they failed to
- 1:00:38mention is that when he went to the United States, he's AUS
- 1:00:41citizen of Turkish of half Turkish descent.
- 1:00:44He was actually stopped at the airport and held immigration for
- 1:00:50obviously his political movies. He's he's a socialist.
- 1:00:53I'm out socialist. He has a lot of left-leaning
- 1:00:56comments on this thing. But I was just kind of thinking
- 1:00:592 minutes in Tiananmen, which is, you know, guarded and
- 1:01:03everybody knows it, versus I don't know how many hours he
- 1:01:06spent talking to ICE trying to explain to that he was not a
- 1:01:10terrorist simply because he's half Arabic.
- 1:01:15Yeah, no, it's it's sad. I wish, I wish things were a
- 1:01:19little bit better. Yeah, well, we are home for
- 1:01:25better days. But yeah, I mean, at least we're
- 1:01:28safely, it's gone from Asia, you know, away from the turmoil at
- 1:01:32home right now. I know, but I, you know, do you
- 1:01:36at all feel? Come on, Carl, don't you feel a
- 1:01:39little bit guilty? You know, I, I, I, you don't
- 1:01:44look like you feel guilty. You know what I'm saying?
- 1:01:48It's just, I, I sometimes wonder, I said, Oh my gosh, you
- 1:01:51know, I'm, I'm, I, I have a great life here.
- 1:01:53And you know, it's, I, I live in, it would be hard for me to
- 1:01:57leave because I'm so used to WeChat.
- 1:01:59I don't carry money anymore. I haven't carried it for years.
- 1:02:02Everything's so convenient. I got call a car, I pay for it
- 1:02:05and everything is just easy. If I want something, I, I, I
- 1:02:09call Taobao and you know, you know, 10 minutes later or a half
- 1:02:13hour later, it's on my doorstep. It's really hard to get away
- 1:02:17from that. But I do feel for my fellow
- 1:02:21Americans. I, I think they're in a
- 1:02:23difficult position. I mean, what's been happening,
- 1:02:28they, they feel desperate. They're not doing this because
- 1:02:30they're, they, they hate anybody.
- 1:02:32I think most Americans really decent people, but right now
- 1:02:38they feel pushed in a corner and unfortunately they're going the
- 1:02:41wrong way. It's like, you know, the I was
- 1:02:44watching in Iowa, I think it was Iowa farmer, a woman.
- 1:02:49She and her husband were contemplating going bankrupt and
- 1:02:55she was from an area that was voted for Trump.
- 1:02:58And she sent me and with my husband, we've always voted for
- 1:03:01Trump when he's when he's been running.
- 1:03:04I said. But I'm now realizing that we
- 1:03:06voted for a guy who promised that he was going to destroy our
- 1:03:10markets and also take away our ability to operate because we,
- 1:03:15yes, we did use workers who were probably undocumented.
- 1:03:21They know that because they all disappeared afterwards.
- 1:03:25So they said, yeah, I'm, I'm sitting here contemplating the
- 1:03:28fact that in say, contemplating, she says I'm getting used to the
- 1:03:31idea that I voted for a guy who's going to kill my business.
- 1:03:36But what is what is she going to do after this?
- 1:03:38Lose her farm? And she's this nice lady.
- 1:03:42I don't care if she voted for Trump.
- 1:03:43She's a decent, hard working person kind of person America
- 1:03:47should be proud of. Unfortunately, you know, why
- 1:03:51would she vote for somebody who, you know, he's, he's not the
- 1:03:54first person I'm thinking of. You know, 42 convictions, 6
- 1:03:58bankruptcies, you know, over 20 allegations for sexual
- 1:04:04harassment, very dubious friends.
- 1:04:07And who's enriching himself while America is having real
- 1:04:12problems? But I know it's not just Trump
- 1:04:15though, I mean Biden. Was just as bad.
- 1:04:18It's just as bad on a smaller scale.
- 1:04:21I mean Hunter only probably got a couple, you know, like 30-40
- 1:04:25million. I think the cash count for the
- 1:04:28Trump's is around 4 billion depending on the day and Bitcoin
- 1:04:35prices and things like this. No, but but think about it.
- 1:04:39And I was discussing this with my son today.
- 1:04:41I said the issue, don't you know, I didn't like Biden?
- 1:04:46I, I was disappointed by Obama. I think he's a fine man.
- 1:04:51He meant well and things like that.
- 1:04:53But he didn't do well. And all the rhetoric in the
- 1:04:55world didn't change things. But why is it that America is
- 1:05:01incapable of putting forward people who are, you know, going
- 1:05:06to change things, who can lead us into a better future?
- 1:05:11And I, you know, the one thing that I've come up with is what I
- 1:05:14call litmus test politics. That is if you want to be part
- 1:05:18of the, you know, if you want to get elected, you have to join a
- 1:05:22party. Then party will say, well, our
- 1:05:25position on this, this and this is this are are you do you check
- 1:05:29those boxes? And if you say no, they say,
- 1:05:32well, thank you, but we have another candidate, right?
- 1:05:35So you literally cannot pass. So at every level, when you go
- 1:05:40from the local to the state to the federal level, you have to
- 1:05:43pass these litmus tests in order to get the money that you need
- 1:05:46to, to run. But that's not how you create
- 1:05:49leaders. You don't create leaders by
- 1:05:51having people who are willing to check boxes.
- 1:05:54And you know, you, you see this in Congress.
- 1:05:56I mean, Jeffries and all these people, they're clueless,
- 1:06:01Absolutely no vision whatsoever. It's just, you know, party line,
- 1:06:05party line, party line. It's just how about the people?
- 1:06:09What a what a novel idea. Let's let's, let's think about
- 1:06:12the people. We could all come together, all
- 1:06:16right, Democrats and Republicans just say, OK, what would be good
- 1:06:21for America? And it's not about my issues or
- 1:06:24this or abortion or that. It's just, look, we need, we
- 1:06:27need to have a clean start. We need to figure out a way we
- 1:06:29can get back on track, be useful in the world, be competitive.
- 1:06:35I don't think that's controversial.
- 1:06:36At least, I hope it isn't. Yeah, but we got but the reality
- 1:06:43is we're ruled by the unit party, as you said, and and
- 1:06:46there's so many vested interests got their claws sinking into the
- 1:06:51system to make sure it doesn't change.
- 1:06:53And, and so that's why I I think US going to have to have some
- 1:07:00far reckoning in the coming years.
- 1:07:02I mean, China had its century of humiliation and hopefully the US
- 1:07:07doesn't need a century of humiliation.
- 1:07:10But I think there needs to be, I think American Society as a
- 1:07:17whole needs to go through the five stage graving process, you
- 1:07:21know, to realize, I think now most people already realize the
- 1:07:25problem, but they don't know how to solve it.
- 1:07:29You know, like Trump, Trump, whether Trump, Obama, they're
- 1:07:33all, all the attempts, manifestation of attempts by
- 1:07:37American electorate of trying to hope to get someone to clean the
- 1:07:42system to solve, to bring change and solve the problem.
- 1:07:45But so far that has not been successful.
- 1:07:47And I I don't know how what would it takes to actually make
- 1:07:52a successful change, but change is needed.
- 1:07:55If we don't fall, all all go over the Cliff.
- 1:07:59I I couldn't agree with you more, but the question is, where
- 1:08:02is that change going to come from?
- 1:08:03That's why my theory is that we have to hit rock bottom before
- 1:08:07we can go up. It's kind of like an addict, you
- 1:08:09know? You, you can.
- 1:08:11Yeah. It's, it's sad.
- 1:08:13There's going to be a lot of people who are hurt by this.
- 1:08:15And I, I, you know, you know, Carl, I, I somebody asked me, he
- 1:08:18says, you know, oh, they were talking about some situation.
- 1:08:22I said, look, don't, don't separate people in any way
- 1:08:25except one. They either have empathy or they
- 1:08:28don't. Now, there's obviously a rainbow
- 1:08:30of, you know, you can be quite different in terms of how much
- 1:08:35empathy you have or don't. But I mean, I don't think that
- 1:08:38Donald Trump has any empathy. You know, you, you've seen
- 1:08:41pictures of him when some guy falls on the floor and he's
- 1:08:44gasping for breath, kind of looking at him like he's looking
- 1:08:47at a, you know, bystander. There's no attempt to do it.
- 1:08:51But some friend of his fell off the stage and gashed his head.
- 1:08:55And he was just like moving away.
- 1:08:57He wasn't running. For he's a perfect politician.
- 1:09:01He's a perfect politician. You know I have no empathy and
- 1:09:04to be about. Carl I I I I was in politics.
- 1:09:08I I knew guys, I mean Clinton, I'll never forgive him for
- 1:09:12giving up Glass Steagall, but in the end he, he had an amazing
- 1:09:17trick. He could meet somebody 10 in in
- 1:09:21a crowd, right? And 10 years and spend maybe,
- 1:09:25you know, 1520 seconds talking to him and then ten years later
- 1:09:30he'd look at the guy and say, oh, I saw you in Philadelphia.
- 1:09:34Yeah, that's right. You now you told me you were
- 1:09:37involved in, you know, such and such.
- 1:09:39Now, how did that work out? And the people be blown away,
- 1:09:42right. The the former ambassador of
- 1:09:45Terry Bradstad, who was the former longest running governor,
- 1:09:49I think of Iowa ever, that's Xi Jinping, etcetera.
- 1:09:52He had that ability, had an incredible memory for people's
- 1:09:55names. And they say Tommy Thompson as
- 1:09:57well. And these these it's it's it's
- 1:10:01kind of different. But did they actually care?
- 1:10:03Yes, they did. Clinton cared, but unfortunately
- 1:10:08he let his ego and his desire to, you know, it got the best of
- 1:10:15him. Did Tommy Thompson care?
- 1:10:17Yes, but he also the ego, and this is the problem with
- 1:10:20politics I saw so many times it was regardless of how good or
- 1:10:25bad they were, it was the ego that forward.
- 1:10:30And I guess that's what's required because if you're going
- 1:10:33to get into politics, I can tell you it's a dirty, nasty game.
- 1:10:37I ran that political race. It's not for money, simply
- 1:10:40because I I wanted to create some change or keep people in
- 1:10:45that I thought were good. And Oh my goodness, the things
- 1:10:49you have to do when you talk about special interests, it
- 1:10:51doesn't just exist at the national level.
- 1:10:53It exists at every single level of politics and you have to make
- 1:10:57decision on going to go for the Realtors or I'm going to go for
- 1:11:01the the plumbers union or something like that, or the
- 1:11:03police and fire guys. Where am I going to go to
- 1:11:06teachers and things like this. It's all all baked in.
- 1:11:11And you by the time you arrive in office, you owe so many
- 1:11:14people. And if you expect to get re
- 1:11:16elected, you have to perform. If you don't perform, they say,
- 1:11:21oh, this guy's no good, let's go find another one.
- 1:11:23So special interests at every single stage.
- 1:11:27And you know, The thing is they're not quote bad people,
- 1:11:31but the people they elect to head the union and negotiate
- 1:11:34with you, They're not, they're not caring people.
- 1:11:38They're politicians. It's about their ego and what
- 1:11:41they can bring back, what kind of red meat I can bring back to
- 1:11:45the boys and girls, right? And they push deals and, you
- 1:11:50know, they, they push the process to an absurd level.
- 1:11:55And you, you have, you know, just really bad things
- 1:11:59happening. And if you talk to them and say,
- 1:12:01hey, listen, you know, this isn't working out.
- 1:12:03It says, well, it's not my problem.
- 1:12:05You know, I'm, I'm here as his head of this union.
- 1:12:07And, you know, we got to get ours.
- 1:12:10All right, that's it. I mean, you remember the, there
- 1:12:15was the head of the union who was, you know, put together
- 1:12:18those series of strikes with the all the auto unions about what,
- 1:12:21334 years ago before COVID Anyways, yeah.
- 1:12:27So they asked him. He said, I want, he said, I want
- 1:12:29a 40% increase. And then the basis was that the,
- 1:12:33the, the fat guys in in the city when they when they had problems
- 1:12:38back during the global meltdown, you know, management said, it
- 1:12:44says, hey, guys, we're all in this together.
- 1:12:46All right, you got to take something for the team.
- 1:12:49We're going to cut back your benefits.
- 1:12:50We're going to cut back your pay and things like that.
- 1:12:52But as soon as things turn around, we'll, we'll, we'll make
- 1:12:56it up to you. Well, those guys were stuffing
- 1:13:00their pockets full of bonuses when the car things are around.
- 1:13:04Nothing happened to the union guys.
- 1:13:06So these guys said, OK, they got theirs time, we got ours.
- 1:13:10I want 40%. I think they agreed at 30%.
- 1:13:12But here's the problem. They're adding 30% to an
- 1:13:16industry, to the labor cost of that car that is not doing well.
- 1:13:22It doesn't have a global market. It's not competitive as it is.
- 1:13:27And they asked them, they said, don't you have some concerns
- 1:13:30about the future, are that you might in essence be killing the
- 1:13:34golden goose that lays the eggs. And he says, well, that may be
- 1:13:38the case, But the fact is we have to get ours now before it's
- 1:13:42gone. So this, I mean, was he a bad
- 1:13:46guy? No, I don't think he was a bad
- 1:13:48guy. I think he, he thought he was
- 1:13:49doing the best he could for his union workers who had been
- 1:13:52shafted by management. Yeah.
- 1:13:55But at the end of it, we're all going to suffer.
- 1:13:58It would be really terrible to have an America without a a car
- 1:14:03industry. You know, we, we really
- 1:14:05pioneered it. To go from the the model T4 to
- 1:14:10to 0 would be a a big mistake. But we have to do that.
- 1:14:14We have to turn around and start being competitive.
- 1:14:19I've talked to your ear off Carl.
- 1:14:21I can see you're about the snooze.
- 1:14:23Now you, I'm like, why did you leave politics?
- 1:14:26I know we need you. We need you back in the office.
- 1:14:30No, when they, when somebody, somebody suggested I run for
- 1:14:33mayor of the city I was in and I said, I looked at him and I
- 1:14:37said, what did I do to you? I mean, the idea of jumping in
- 1:14:43the, in the, I mean, it was bad enough I was doing what I was
- 1:14:47doing the idea of and I thought, oh, I'll have to kill off a
- 1:14:52bunch of people who are really bad, they're corrupt or they're
- 1:14:55incompetent and put my own people in.
- 1:14:57And then I'm more like a mafia boss than a politician.
- 1:15:03I thought, no, I, I, I, I'm sorry.
- 1:15:05I, I dedicated 10 years of my life to doing public service
- 1:15:10unpaid. And a couple of times they gave
- 1:15:13me very little bit of money, but not, not, I was a full time job,
- 1:15:17but I was doing quite a bit of stuff.
- 1:15:19And I, I just, I said, well, I think I've done as much as I can
- 1:15:23here and I wanted to experience life somewhere else.
- 1:15:27So that's, that's where China came into play.
- 1:15:29I really was fascinated by the fact that China created cities.
- 1:15:35You know, in America, we manage cities.
- 1:15:36It's just there. You just try to figure out how
- 1:15:39to, you know, keep keep it from, you know, deteriorating and
- 1:15:42making it a little bit better and things like that.
- 1:15:44But China being able to make a city fascinated me.
- 1:15:48And I wanted to come here and watch that and understand how
- 1:15:51they were able to do that because I thought, wow, I mean,
- 1:15:56to engineer a successful city like that, right?
- 1:16:01Having been involved in the guts of the city, everything from
- 1:16:04zoning to, you know, the, the finances and, and running at a
- 1:16:09district in the city. I just said this, this is, I
- 1:16:12have to understand this. So that was the real draw for
- 1:16:15me. People wanted to learn in China
- 1:16:17and I wanted to learn from China and see how they were doing
- 1:16:20this. I I already have the idea for
- 1:16:24our next show, Inar's Journey to China from.
- 1:16:29America to China. Let's talk about how that
- 1:16:31happened. I want.
- 1:16:32To know, OK, just just tell everyone to get get a blanket
- 1:16:37and you know, it's a hot cup of, of cocoa so they can, you know,
- 1:16:42nod off. I'm sure it will be great.
- 1:16:47I already take. It more appreciate you having
- 1:16:50me. Sorry I gassed on so much but.
- 1:16:52No, no, it's great. It's great content for, for for
- 1:16:56me, but I I really appreciate you taking the time to make it
- 1:16:59happen. So when you do come back.
- 1:17:01On the show, it's been too long. It's been too long.
- 1:17:04Last time we talked was two years ago on the Great Wall, so
- 1:17:08hopefully it will take less than that when you come back from
- 1:17:12Doha. We're going to do that episode
- 1:17:14on Einar's trip from America to China.
- 1:17:17I'm only in Doha for two days, so it's not like, oh, I'm not
- 1:17:21from Doha. It's not like the old days where
- 1:17:24I get on a ship and six months later I'll pop.
- 1:17:30All right, really a pleasure. All the best to you and all the
- 1:17:33best to your listeners and I hope this is some of this is
- 1:17:36useful. Thank you, INR and for people
- 1:17:39listening, thank you for tuning in.
- 1:17:42Until next time, bye bye.