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2026 Belmont Stakes BEST BETS | The Basketball Team? · Toadstool Sports

0:16
Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm man, a hole in
0:20
Speaker 1: your checks, black coffee.
0:22
Speaker 2: On the felt man, you look like a mess.
0:25
Speaker 3: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
0:29
Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips.
0:31
Speaker 3: Like they made you this man. But don't you go quiet.
0:35
Speaker 3: Don't you fade from the floor. Your name, steal me
0:39
Speaker 3: something ne somebody for show. Put the glass down, baby,
0:45
Speaker 3: look at me.
0:46
Speaker 1: Nine.
0:49
Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on, nothing nice, now.
0:58
Speaker 1: Hold on, load on me, but don't get the crown.
1:14
Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, stay with me.
1:19
Speaker 5: Now, what's up, everybody? It's towed back with you with
1:30
Speaker 5: toadstool sports. This is gonna be the Belmont Steaks run down,
1:34
Speaker 5: which you know me, I don't know that much about horses.
1:37
Speaker 5: My picks in the other Triple Crown races did not
1:40
Speaker 5: go that well. I think my handle on the Derby
1:44
Speaker 5: was better than the Preakness, though, which is usually the case.
1:47
Speaker 5: Belmont might have a little bit of a better read
1:50
Speaker 5: on it, just because the Belmont is gonna have a
1:51
Speaker 5: lot of Kentucky Derby horses in it, and I don't
1:54
Speaker 5: think there are any Preakness horses in it. But I
1:56
Speaker 5: think that that's set up way over the last few
2:01
Speaker 5: years because the Belmont is actually not at the Belmont
2:04
Speaker 5: Race track right now because it's being renovated. What else
2:07
Speaker 5: is new The Preakness, Pimlico or whatever is being renovated
2:10
Speaker 5: to so Belmont is being run at Saratoga instead.
2:13
Speaker 2: I think.
2:14
Speaker 5: So the race is actually shorter, I believe than it
2:16
Speaker 5: typically is. The typical Belmont race is one and a
2:19
Speaker 5: half miles, and I believe at the Saratoga track, I
2:22
Speaker 5: believe it's one and a quarter mile, which is the
2:25
Speaker 5: same distance as the Kentucky Derby. So I think that
2:28
Speaker 5: makes it even more likely that trainers are going to
2:30
Speaker 5: just have their horse skip the Preakness, so they just
2:33
Speaker 5: go right from the Derby, same exact Well, it's you know,
2:37
Speaker 5: the same type of track, they're both dirt tracks, but
2:40
Speaker 5: also the same distance, so it makes sense just skip it. Okay,
2:44
Speaker 5: your next race is going to be basically the same
2:47
Speaker 5: type of race, same distance, more of a stamina race,
2:50
Speaker 5: that type of thing, whatever you want to call it.
2:53
Speaker 2: So I think that's part of the.
2:54
Speaker 5: Reason why, which also means we're not really gonna have
2:57
Speaker 5: any triple Crown winners maybe starting next year, because Belmont
3:00
Speaker 5: will be back in Belmont. I don't think I have
3:04
Speaker 5: a whole lot to say. I think this is gonna
3:05
Speaker 5: be a pretty quick video here, because what do I know.
3:08
Speaker 5: I don't know anything about these horses. This is just
3:11
Speaker 5: based on, you know, the limited information that I've researched
3:14
Speaker 5: and whatever. But I think knowing how betting works and
3:17
Speaker 5: the fact that you can kind of zigzag things, you
3:19
Speaker 5: can kind of figure out, Okay, this particular horse overperformed
3:23
Speaker 5: in the Kentucky Derby, or this horse underperform whatever, you
3:27
Speaker 5: might be able to find some advantages here in kind
3:31
Speaker 5: of fading that sentiment. So we can look at the
3:34
Speaker 5: rundown of the horses here. There are only nine horses
3:36
Speaker 5: in this race, so it's going to be less traffic
3:39
Speaker 5: in this race than the Kentucky Derby, which has twenty horses.
3:43
Speaker 5: So that might help some of these other horses that
3:46
Speaker 5: might have gotten like bumped off of their path, let's
3:50
Speaker 5: say in the Kentucky Derby, because they won't have to
3:52
Speaker 5: deal with traffic. There are gonna be two horses which
3:55
Speaker 5: actually happen to be the horses that have the best
3:57
Speaker 5: odds to win this thing that I think, indeed are
3:59
Speaker 5: the top two horses in this race to get this
4:02
Speaker 5: thing done, because part of the reason is because of that.
4:05
Speaker 5: I think they actually ran better than you would think
4:08
Speaker 5: in the Derby, even though one of them finished second
4:11
Speaker 5: in the Derby. So we do have the the number one,
4:15
Speaker 5: number two, and number four finishers, and I believe seven
4:20
Speaker 5: and ten, I want to say, are all from the
4:22
Speaker 5: Kentucky Derby are all in this race. I hope I'm
4:25
Speaker 5: getting that right. I believe I'm getting that right.
4:29
Speaker 2: I might be. I'll have to look.
4:31
Speaker 5: I think, yeah, I think I'm right about that, but
4:33
Speaker 5: you can check me if I'm wrong about that. But
4:35
Speaker 5: we can kind of go through these horses really quick here.
4:38
Speaker 5: But yeah, a lot of Kentucky Derby horses in this race.
4:41
Speaker 5: The other thing I will say is the Kentucky Derby
4:43
Speaker 5: had multiple speed horses. So one thing that happened at
4:46
Speaker 5: the Kentucky Derby is the pace early on in that
4:49
Speaker 5: race was faster than we may have even expected. I
4:52
Speaker 5: think that's what helped like a closer like Golden Tempo,
4:56
Speaker 5: who's like a stone cold closer, completely.
4:59
Speaker 2: Closed the gas.
5:00
Speaker 5: Because when you have fast early fractions in the race,
5:03
Speaker 5: what that means is those a lot of the horses
5:06
Speaker 5: are right behind the pace setters, and that can fatigue
5:08
Speaker 5: those horses too early in the race, and then a
5:10
Speaker 5: horse that's a closer who makes their run way makes
5:13
Speaker 5: their jump like way later in the race, that goes
5:16
Speaker 5: for it, you know what I mean. That horse can
5:19
Speaker 5: get it done in a distance race like this because
5:22
Speaker 5: the horses that have been going too fast at the
5:24
Speaker 5: beginning of the race can be fatigued too much while
5:27
Speaker 5: there's still too much of the race left, if that
5:29
Speaker 5: makes sense.
5:29
Speaker 2: So it allows a closer to close.
5:31
Speaker 5: The gap, and it somewhat helps the stalkers as well,
5:36
Speaker 5: which are like the horses that are right right off
5:38
Speaker 5: of the lead, as long as they're not going too fast.
5:40
Speaker 5: But I think it's set up well for the closers
5:43
Speaker 5: in that race, which is golden tempo and somewhat renegade
5:46
Speaker 5: qualify as those now in this race. Vitruvian Man is
5:51
Speaker 5: a thirty to one like long shot. I don't know
5:53
Speaker 5: anything about Vitruvian Man other than it's that Leonardo da
5:58
Speaker 5: Vinci work of art, if you want to call it that.
6:02
Speaker 5: I don't know anything else. I don't know anything.
6:04
Speaker 2: About this horse.
6:06
Speaker 5: The horse is a long shot I would probably not
6:07
Speaker 5: have that horse on my card or anything like that. Well,
6:12
Speaker 5: and I first I should specify because I usually do
6:14
Speaker 5: in these horse racing videos if people have not watched
6:16
Speaker 5: any of them, they are different ways to attack these
6:19
Speaker 5: horse races. The way that their bet though, you're not
6:22
Speaker 5: actually betting completely against the house like you are with
6:25
Speaker 5: other betting, where the house will give you the odds
6:27
Speaker 5: and that's basically it, and they're kind of screwing you
6:30
Speaker 5: with the odds.
6:30
Speaker 2: You have to pay the big whatever.
6:32
Speaker 5: In horse racing, it's paramutual betting, so all the money
6:36
Speaker 5: that goes into it goes into a pool and then yeah,
6:39
Speaker 5: the odds determine what your payout is, but so does
6:42
Speaker 5: the amount of money that goes into the pool. So
6:44
Speaker 5: the books will obviously take some of that money off
6:48
Speaker 5: the top.
6:48
Speaker 2: That's how they make their money.
6:49
Speaker 5: They take a raak out of the pool, but all
6:52
Speaker 5: the rest of the money in that pool gets divvied
6:54
Speaker 5: out to the winners of the bets, and that is
6:57
Speaker 5: based off of the odds that you have as well.
6:59
Speaker 5: So hopefully that that makes sense. And the ways that
7:01
Speaker 5: you can bet this race, you can do the really
7:03
Speaker 5: simple thing. You just bet a horse to win with
7:05
Speaker 5: the odds like basically that you see here. You can
7:07
Speaker 5: bet a horse to win or place, so they come
7:10
Speaker 5: in first or second. You can bet a horse to
7:11
Speaker 5: win place or show, meaning they can come in first, second,
7:14
Speaker 5: or third. But obviously the odds will be less good
7:18
Speaker 5: on those. You'll get less of a payout if you
7:20
Speaker 5: do it that way. You know, I mean, like win
7:23
Speaker 5: place or show, you're gonna get less of a payout
7:26
Speaker 5: than if you just pick the winner, you know what
7:28
Speaker 5: I mean, if you get it right, then the way
7:31
Speaker 5: I like to do, like more of the exotics. If
7:33
Speaker 5: I get involved in these races, I do, I might
7:36
Speaker 5: like take one of the horses that I think is
7:38
Speaker 5: the best and do like the win place show. But
7:40
Speaker 5: the exotics are kind of the way that you do
7:42
Speaker 5: it where you can set them up in multiple different ways,
7:46
Speaker 5: and that's doing exact. Doesn't try effect us. Basically you
7:48
Speaker 5: can do super effect us. To which are top four finishers?
7:51
Speaker 5: I don't really I've never really gotten involved in that.
7:54
Speaker 5: But the exact is when you pick the top two
7:56
Speaker 5: horses a straight exactly, you have to get the order
7:59
Speaker 5: right box exact. You can get them in any order,
8:02
Speaker 5: but the payout is less, and then the trifecta, you
8:05
Speaker 5: can do the same thing.
8:06
Speaker 2: On those.
8:06
Speaker 5: You can do a straight or a box, So that's
8:08
Speaker 5: picking the top three. But what you can do with
8:11
Speaker 5: the straight ones is you can do multiple versions of it.
8:14
Speaker 5: And yes, you know some of them are gonna lose
8:16
Speaker 5: because of course you have all these different combinations. Only
8:19
Speaker 5: some of the combinations could possibly work because some of
8:21
Speaker 5: them are in.
8:23
Speaker 2: Opposition to the others.
8:24
Speaker 5: But I think the way to do it is you like,
8:26
Speaker 5: select your few horses that you like in the race,
8:29
Speaker 5: maybe like the one that you think is the best
8:31
Speaker 5: or has the combination of like the best chance to win,
8:35
Speaker 5: but also with the odds that make the most sense,
8:38
Speaker 5: so maybe not the best odds to win, but the
8:41
Speaker 5: horse that has the best value to win. You put
8:42
Speaker 5: them on top of your exact, put the other like
8:45
Speaker 5: few horses that you like as the number two in
8:47
Speaker 5: the exact, but then also flip it and have another exactor.
8:50
Speaker 5: You have those other three horses as the number one,
8:52
Speaker 5: and then your horse is the number two. So if
8:55
Speaker 5: either of those come through, then you're gonna probably win
8:58
Speaker 5: some amount of money there because some of those will hit. Yeah,
9:03
Speaker 5: as long as some of the as long as you
9:05
Speaker 5: know your combination is in there, and you leave out
9:08
Speaker 5: like the dead money, like probably the Truvian man, and
9:10
Speaker 5: don't put him in any of your things or any
9:14
Speaker 5: of your bets, I should say. And then trifecta basically
9:16
Speaker 5: the same thing. You could have like one version of it,
9:19
Speaker 5: you have your horse on top, a few of the
9:21
Speaker 5: other horses in second, and then maybe a couple others
9:23
Speaker 5: in third, although with a horse with a horse race
9:26
Speaker 5: that has this few horses in it though, and you
9:29
Speaker 5: might even just go exact as only in a race
9:31
Speaker 5: like this like the Derby, kind of makes more sense
9:34
Speaker 5: to go trifecta just because there's so many more horses
9:37
Speaker 5: in the race and you can kind of have the
9:39
Speaker 5: different levels of them. But whatever you do, I would
9:41
Speaker 5: make a version of it where like in the trifecta,
9:44
Speaker 5: you have your horse on top, some horses on the
9:46
Speaker 5: second line, some horses on the third line, But then
9:49
Speaker 5: also flip bet, so you have one where your second
9:51
Speaker 5: line horses are actually in another bet on the top line.
9:54
Speaker 5: Your number one horse is on the second line and
9:57
Speaker 5: the same ones are.
9:57
Speaker 2: On the third.
9:58
Speaker 5: But also then flip it again, you know, like do
10:01
Speaker 5: like every like rotation of it basically, if that makes sense,
10:05
Speaker 5: which Jeffrey, who no longer watches the show, pointed out
10:08
Speaker 5: that that is similar to a wheel, which I haven't
10:11
Speaker 5: really done a wheel, but you can in these horse
10:13
Speaker 5: bending apps, which by the way, DKA finally got rid
10:16
Speaker 5: of their separate app for the horses and they brought
10:19
Speaker 5: it over into their main app, so that's probably good,
10:22
Speaker 5: I guess of them to do that. But Jeffrey pointed
10:26
Speaker 5: out that you could do wheel bets, which you can
10:27
Speaker 5: do on those sites, and that's sort of the same.
10:30
Speaker 2: Thing, but they kind of like automated a little bit.
10:32
Speaker 5: But I think that they only let you with a wheel,
10:35
Speaker 5: and I haven't tried it like on the apps, and
10:37
Speaker 5: I think with the wheel they kind of limit your
10:39
Speaker 5: options on it. So I think it just makes more
10:41
Speaker 5: sense to kind of just do it more manually so
10:43
Speaker 5: you have more control over it and do the exact
10:46
Speaker 5: doesn't tri effectas that way instead, because I think a
10:48
Speaker 5: wheel like only allows you to do like one of
10:52
Speaker 5: those like oh, like I'm gonna put my horse on
10:55
Speaker 5: top and then the rest of these horses on the
10:57
Speaker 5: next line, but it doesn't let you like flip them,
10:59
Speaker 5: you know what I mean? All right, But as far
11:02
Speaker 5: as these horses, yeah, Victruvian man, I would just skip.
11:05
Speaker 5: Don't know much about the horse power Shift, and Virtuvian
11:09
Speaker 5: Man's a thirty one long shot. Like I said, power
11:12
Speaker 5: Shift is a Todd Pletcher horse being run by Luis
11:15
Speaker 5: sai As so well known trainer aunt jockey for this
11:19
Speaker 5: horse twelve to one odds on power Shift. I believe
11:21
Speaker 5: power Shift is a speed horse. So there are a
11:24
Speaker 5: couple of speed horses in this race which are expected
11:26
Speaker 5: to be out in front early, and those types of
11:30
Speaker 5: horses may fatigue by the end of it. And what
11:32
Speaker 5: you'll hear is that because this is Todd Pletcher, he
11:35
Speaker 5: has multiple horses in this race, and of course his
11:37
Speaker 5: other horse which has the best chance to win this
11:40
Speaker 5: race according to the odds, is Renegade, which we know
11:42
Speaker 5: of Renegade from the Kentucky Derby. A lot of people
11:46
Speaker 5: are saying that, well, Pletcher put two horses in this race.
11:49
Speaker 5: He put power Shift in there basically just to be
11:51
Speaker 5: a rabbit for Renegade, which basically means a target for
11:55
Speaker 5: Renegade to run behind and focus on, you know what
11:58
Speaker 5: I mean. So, like these horses that are closers like Renegade,
12:03
Speaker 5: or kind of run just just off the lead, which
12:05
Speaker 5: I think Renegade could potentially do that as well. They
12:08
Speaker 5: like to have a target in front of them, which
12:10
Speaker 5: will keep them running, because then if there's no target
12:13
Speaker 5: in front of them anymore, they might slow down a
12:15
Speaker 5: little bit. And that is what happened with Renegade, which
12:18
Speaker 5: I'll talk about in a minute, because I don't want
12:19
Speaker 5: to glance over power We're talking about power shift here,
12:23
Speaker 5: so that's what the people are basically saying that that's
12:26
Speaker 5: why power shift is in here to be a rabbit,
12:28
Speaker 5: so that Renegade has a target in front of them,
12:31
Speaker 5: you know, until later in the race. And obviously the
12:33
Speaker 5: thought is that Renegade would then overtake power shift at
12:35
Speaker 5: some point.
12:37
Speaker 2: I don't know.
12:38
Speaker 5: I mean, twelve to one means that that power shift
12:41
Speaker 5: is not necessarily dead money in this race, although I
12:44
Speaker 5: don't know if I'm I don't know much about I
12:46
Speaker 5: don't know enough about it to really say for sure,
12:49
Speaker 5: but you know, I would, I don't know. I'm not
12:51
Speaker 5: too big on power shift here.
12:53
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know, but.
12:53
Speaker 5: Maybe that stuff is getting overstated a little bit. And
12:57
Speaker 5: maybe power shift does have better odds, and he's being
12:59
Speaker 5: given just as everybody's overlooking him because he's the rabbit.
13:02
Speaker 2: But I tend to not love.
13:03
Speaker 5: These like speed horses, especially in these long races, or
13:07
Speaker 5: I think they're gonna get overtaken.
13:08
Speaker 2: At some point during the end.
13:10
Speaker 5: So for me, I don't know if I would have
13:11
Speaker 5: power shift in my if I was getting, you know,
13:14
Speaker 5: if I was limiting to myself to just some like
13:16
Speaker 5: exact does and stuff, I don't even know if I
13:18
Speaker 5: would include power shift in there. Maybe you throw him
13:21
Speaker 5: in there a little bit just so he you know,
13:22
Speaker 5: your stuff doesn't get all busted up. But that's what
13:26
Speaker 5: I would say about power shift. Chief Walla be in
13:29
Speaker 5: the in the number three position, and by the way,
13:31
Speaker 5: I think being in the number one position in a
13:33
Speaker 5: race that's not as crowded like the Kentucky Derby, I
13:36
Speaker 5: think it's less bad.
13:37
Speaker 2: Like in the Derby. That's where Renegade was, which you'll
13:40
Speaker 2: talk about in a minute.
13:41
Speaker 5: When I get to Renegade in the Derby, it's almost
13:43
Speaker 5: considered like a death sentence because so many horses run
13:46
Speaker 5: over to the inside. If you're on the number one
13:48
Speaker 5: on the rail, it could be kind of a disaster
13:52
Speaker 5: in a race like this. I don't think it matters
13:54
Speaker 5: as much, but just figured I would throw that out
13:56
Speaker 5: there because it's only nine horses in this race. Chief
13:59
Speaker 5: wall You remember, I liked Chief Wallaby and the Kentucky Derby.
14:03
Speaker 5: That horse was my pick because Chief Wallaby kept improving
14:07
Speaker 5: with every race basically and had I think faced some
14:10
Speaker 5: pretty good competition as well, and had almost won a
14:14
Speaker 5: couple of other races that I think involved the Renegade
14:17
Speaker 5: and maybe Command that was in that I can't remember,
14:19
Speaker 5: but had faced some good competition, had done pretty well
14:21
Speaker 5: against those horses, just had him won. Then for the
14:24
Speaker 5: Kentucky Derby, trainer Bill Mott put blinkers on Chief Wallaby,
14:30
Speaker 5: which a lot of people think is a negative, which
14:32
Speaker 5: is like that mask that kind.
14:34
Speaker 2: Of restricts the horse's peripheral vision.
14:36
Speaker 5: I think because Chief Wallaby is still kind of a
14:38
Speaker 5: young horse, and it was just to keep the horse focused.
14:40
Speaker 5: But I wouldn't say that it worked out poorly, So
14:44
Speaker 5: I like Chief Wallaby again.
14:45
Speaker 2: I actually liked Chief Wallaby to win this race.
14:47
Speaker 5: Chief Wallaby would be the horse I would put on
14:50
Speaker 5: top at three to one odds. Here. Obviously, Chief Wallaby
14:54
Speaker 5: is considered to be one of the front runners here,
14:56
Speaker 5: second best odds to win this thing.
14:57
Speaker 2: But there's a reason for it. Now.
15:00
Speaker 5: If you saw what happened in the Kentucky Derby, chief
15:03
Speaker 5: Wallaby came in fourth and.
15:06
Speaker 2: Had like kind of a like a.
15:08
Speaker 5: Bad race basically, and still came and fourth, Which is
15:12
Speaker 5: what I like about it, because people are gonna kind
15:13
Speaker 5: of overlook Chief Wallaby because the horse didn't come in
15:16
Speaker 5: one of the top three spots, came in just out
15:18
Speaker 5: of that, so people might not even remember that.
15:21
Speaker 2: It might overlook that. But if you saw what.
15:23
Speaker 5: Happened, Chief wallabing could have made a move to get
15:27
Speaker 5: in position, to maybe be in one of those front
15:29
Speaker 5: couple of positions. But Chief Wallaby got slammed and knocked
15:33
Speaker 5: out of position and had like a hole that the
15:37
Speaker 5: horse was gonna go through this hole, and maybe hesitated
15:40
Speaker 5: to do so as well, because the horse is a
15:42
Speaker 5: little bit young. But I think it was mostly because
15:44
Speaker 5: the horse got slammed by some of the traffic, got
15:47
Speaker 5: knocked out of position, and I think I don't remember
15:50
Speaker 5: if the jockey was the same on Chief Wallaby during
15:53
Speaker 5: that race or not, but I think the horse had
15:58
Speaker 5: to be checked a little bit and then there was
15:59
Speaker 5: no hole anymore, so Chief Waalby had to make another
16:02
Speaker 5: move and actually move I think to the side again,
16:05
Speaker 5: which definitely hurt the horse in the race. And the
16:08
Speaker 5: horse still came in fourth after kind of a very
16:12
Speaker 5: troubled race. So I liked that, and basically kind of
16:15
Speaker 5: a similar thing happened to Renegade, So I do like
16:17
Speaker 5: Renegade in this race as well. The Renegade is two
16:20
Speaker 5: to one. Renegade is being run by Irad Ortiz Junior again,
16:23
Speaker 5: the same jockey that was on Renegade in the Kentucky Derby,
16:27
Speaker 5: who everybody was talking about how he's never won the
16:29
Speaker 5: Derby still hasn't because he came in second and he
16:32
Speaker 5: lost to his brother Jose Ortiz on golden tempo, and
16:36
Speaker 5: Jose Ortiz is running on golden tempo again in this race.
16:40
Speaker 5: But Renegade, you remember, as I just pointed out already,
16:43
Speaker 5: Renegade was unfortunately drew the number one position in that race,
16:49
Speaker 5: which I think is that that's what caused Renegade to
16:51
Speaker 5: not win that race. Renegade was on the rail, and
16:54
Speaker 5: then if you watch what happened in the race, Renegade
16:57
Speaker 5: got caught up in the traffic and just got slammed
16:59
Speaker 5: right into the rail, and then somehow Renegades still wound
17:03
Speaker 5: up recovering. And if you saw what happened the end
17:05
Speaker 5: of the race, the two horses that came in one
17:07
Speaker 5: and two, which were Golden Tempo and Renegade, they both
17:10
Speaker 5: made up a ton of ground at the end of
17:12
Speaker 5: that race. Like they both closed in a huge way
17:15
Speaker 5: at the end of that race. Basically, so Renegade got
17:17
Speaker 5: like completely knocked out of position early and still wound
17:20
Speaker 5: up having a race good enough to come in second
17:23
Speaker 5: in the Derbys. So I would obviously not count out
17:26
Speaker 5: Renegade in this race. So I think Chief Wallaby and
17:28
Speaker 5: Renegade are definitely the top two. I think the odds
17:31
Speaker 5: are about right, but I would actually put Chief Wallaby
17:34
Speaker 5: slightly above Renegade in my opinion here. But I would
17:37
Speaker 5: have Renegade in my leg.
17:38
Speaker 2: Exotics as well.
17:40
Speaker 5: Then five horses O tinoh, I don't even know how
17:44
Speaker 5: to pronounce this horse, a Chad Brown horse that is
17:46
Speaker 5: a speed horse at twenty to one, probably just you
17:50
Speaker 5: know in there for pace setting. Basically one of the
17:52
Speaker 5: only other speed horses besides power I think the only
17:55
Speaker 5: other one besides Power Shift here I probably would not
17:59
Speaker 5: do anything with that horse in my opinion, probably dead money.
18:03
Speaker 5: But again, what do why I know Number six Growth Equity,
18:07
Speaker 5: which is another Chad Brown horse being run by Manny
18:09
Speaker 5: Franco twelve.
18:10
Speaker 2: To one odds.
18:12
Speaker 5: I don't know a ton about Growth Equity, but I
18:13
Speaker 5: think it's a growth Equity. I think is a pretty
18:16
Speaker 5: inexperienced horse. Good horse, but also inexperience. So I don't
18:20
Speaker 5: really know if I have a whole lot else to
18:21
Speaker 5: say about that horse, but I don't know if I
18:23
Speaker 5: would include that horse in my tickets. But you know me,
18:26
Speaker 5: like you know, I've been bad at these horse races.
18:28
Speaker 2: So who knows?
18:30
Speaker 5: In the seven post is Commandment being run by John
18:33
Speaker 5: Velask has another good jockey, Brad Cox, well known trainer.
18:37
Speaker 2: This is his only horse in this race.
18:39
Speaker 5: But you remember going into the Derby, I didn't love Commandment,
18:43
Speaker 5: and I believe Commandment came in seventh in the Derby,
18:45
Speaker 5: which isn't too bad, but I just thought, you know,
18:48
Speaker 5: Commandment just had all these like winning Racism was one.
18:51
Speaker 5: It was, you know, a horse that had some of
18:53
Speaker 5: the best odds to win the Kentucky Derby. Commandment is
18:56
Speaker 5: six to one in this race, so still considered me
18:58
Speaker 5: one of the better horses in this race.
19:01
Speaker 2: But I didn't like Commandment going into the Derby.
19:04
Speaker 5: Don't really see why that would really change after a
19:06
Speaker 5: mediocre performance in the Derby.
19:09
Speaker 2: I don't really know, man.
19:10
Speaker 5: I mean, I just thought the Commandment, you know, wasn't
19:13
Speaker 5: totally battle testing, was just a little bit overvalued in
19:16
Speaker 5: that race, and I kind of consider that to still
19:18
Speaker 5: be the case here.
19:19
Speaker 2: So I don't know.
19:20
Speaker 5: I might kind of avoid Commandment here in this race,
19:22
Speaker 5: but I don't know. I only have a few horses
19:25
Speaker 5: that I really like in this race, and obviously you
19:27
Speaker 5: just got the top two already from me on Emerging
19:30
Speaker 5: Market out of the eighth spot also at six to
19:33
Speaker 5: one might actually be my like number three horse in
19:36
Speaker 5: this race. I did wind up with a merging market
19:39
Speaker 5: on some of my tickets during the Derby, although we lost,
19:42
Speaker 5: of course, But I think emerging market actually did okay
19:46
Speaker 5: in the Derby. I believe emerging market. Hold on, let
19:49
Speaker 5: me make sure that I get this right here, emerging market.
19:55
Speaker 5: Let me see what was the emerging markets Derby? So
19:59
Speaker 5: Emerging Market tenth in the Derby. But I think that
20:04
Speaker 5: people might overlook Emerging Market because of that Emerging Market
20:07
Speaker 5: is well named. I think because Emerging Market is still
20:09
Speaker 5: kind of a young, up and coming horse as well,
20:13
Speaker 5: that's not really that battle test yet. And I remember
20:15
Speaker 5: when I mentioned Emerging Market in the Kentucky Derby, it
20:17
Speaker 5: was because Emerging Market was the only horse not not
20:22
Speaker 5: bred from the same line as Secretariat, who's the Genghis
20:25
Speaker 5: Khan of horses. I think every other horse is from
20:27
Speaker 5: that lineage. Emerging Market I think it's from American pharaohs though,
20:31
Speaker 5: if I'm not mistaken. But Emerging Market, I think is
20:34
Speaker 5: a good horse. And Flavian Pratt, who some considered to
20:37
Speaker 5: be the best jockey out there, is running on Emerging
20:40
Speaker 5: Market here and it's a Chad Brown horse. So I
20:43
Speaker 5: believe that that kind of signals something because I think
20:47
Speaker 5: Pratt might have been able to choose between a few
20:49
Speaker 5: different horses here and chose to run Emerging Market. So
20:52
Speaker 5: I think that probably shows some indication that he thinks
20:54
Speaker 5: that there's a decent chance to win this race with
20:58
Speaker 5: Emerging Market. I might get overlooked because of a ten
21:02
Speaker 5: finish templates tenth place finish.
21:04
Speaker 2: In the Kentucky Derby.
21:06
Speaker 5: But I just think that the race didn't set up
21:08
Speaker 5: well for emerging market, so I think that's kind of
21:10
Speaker 5: what I will say about that. And then of course
21:12
Speaker 5: we have the Kentucky Derby winner, Golden Tempo, being run
21:16
Speaker 5: by the same jockey, Jose Ortiz, so there is some
21:18
Speaker 5: continuity there with Golden Tempo am with Renegade both being
21:22
Speaker 5: run by the same jockeys as they had in the
21:27
Speaker 5: Kentucky Derby. And of course the big thing was oh
21:29
Speaker 5: Sherry Devau female first female trainer to win the Kentucky Derby,
21:34
Speaker 5: I believe, but I don't like Golden Temple in this race.
21:37
Speaker 5: Golden Tempo is nine to two to win, so four
21:40
Speaker 5: and a half to one, so Golden Temple has the
21:41
Speaker 5: third best odds to win this race. I think the
21:44
Speaker 5: horse is just inevitably gonna be overvalued because everybody knows
21:48
Speaker 5: Golden Tempo won the Kentucky Derby and the race set
21:51
Speaker 5: up perfectly for a closer like Golden Tempo.
21:54
Speaker 2: That's what I will say about it.
21:56
Speaker 5: I mean, I'm not gonna say the horse is bad,
21:58
Speaker 5: obviously not, but the way that the race set up,
22:02
Speaker 5: you know, like fast early fractions set up well for
22:04
Speaker 5: closers because those horses that were up in front wound
22:07
Speaker 5: up getting a little bit tired too early in the race.
22:10
Speaker 5: And then Golden Tempo, I think, was kind of avoiding
22:12
Speaker 5: the traffic and basically just had like a perfect path,
22:15
Speaker 5: perfect trip, And then it did set up well for
22:19
Speaker 5: Renegade too though, That's what I was saying. So even
22:21
Speaker 5: though Renegade did get knocked into the rail early so
22:24
Speaker 5: did have a troubled trip there and still was able
22:27
Speaker 5: to overcome that and come in second, which is which
22:29
Speaker 5: shows you how good of a.
22:30
Speaker 2: Horse Renegade is. Renegade did have kind of a better
22:33
Speaker 2: u trip for the like later portion of that race, and.
22:36
Speaker 5: The way that the race set up early fast fractions
22:40
Speaker 5: early on did help a horse like Renegade that is
22:43
Speaker 5: like more of a closer.
22:44
Speaker 2: So that did.
22:45
Speaker 5: That's kind of why I like Chief Wallaby a little
22:47
Speaker 5: bit over Renegade here in this race. Not huge on
22:51
Speaker 5: Golden Temple though, just because I think overvalued from the
22:54
Speaker 5: wind in the Kentucky Derby was a decent horse, is
22:57
Speaker 5: a decent horse, did well in the race, but basically
23:00
Speaker 5: couldn't have had a better set up in that race,
23:03
Speaker 5: a better trip, and you know, wound up not getting
23:05
Speaker 5: slammed by traffic or anything like that. So yeah, that's
23:08
Speaker 5: basically it for this race here, man. So I'm gonna
23:12
Speaker 5: put Chief Wallaby is my number one pick here, especially
23:16
Speaker 5: factoring in what the odds are here, then I would
23:18
Speaker 5: go Renegade. Renegade definitely has a really good chance to
23:21
Speaker 5: still win. Then I think I would probably go I
23:27
Speaker 5: think I would then go Emerging Market, and then I
23:31
Speaker 5: don't know, man, I mean, just so you don't get
23:33
Speaker 5: you know, totally like fucked, you know, I mean, I
23:37
Speaker 5: don't know. I might consider just throwing power Shift after
23:39
Speaker 5: that at number four, but I don't even know about that.
23:42
Speaker 5: I mean, I'm not I'm not sold on these other horses,
23:45
Speaker 5: including you know, Commandment, Golden temp But like, I just
23:47
Speaker 5: think Chief Wallaby, Renegade, Emerging Market, those are my top
23:51
Speaker 5: three in that order.
23:54
Speaker 2: I think that's it. That's what I have to say
23:55
Speaker 2: about it. There you go.
23:57
Speaker 5: That's the great Yeah Belmont Steaks episode that I have.
24:01
Speaker 5: I'm doing it in the afternoon because I'm gonna be
24:03
Speaker 5: out tonight and tomorrow night. So that's it, man, Learn
24:07
Speaker 5: it to one on Twitter and learn it tone on Instagram.
24:09
Speaker 5: I gotta put out my videos for today. I have
24:11
Speaker 5: three plays for today. You can go check it out
24:13
Speaker 5: on my channel here on YouTube for now covered in
24:17
Speaker 5: you because my ukulelely channel on YouTube, so you can
24:19
Speaker 5: check that out too. But obviously like subscribe here. Check
24:22
Speaker 5: everything out here on tostool Sports or on audio as
24:25
Speaker 5: well Apple Spotify Spreaker. That all helps out as well.
24:28
Speaker 5: If you listen over there the Loser casts every Tuesday night,
24:32
Speaker 5: you can check that out, and the g spot the
24:34
Speaker 5: Giants New York Giants podcast that I am on will
24:38
Speaker 5: be returning at some point as well.
24:41
Speaker 2: That's gonna do it up for now. So thanks everybody.
24:45
Speaker 5: I appreciated nobody in the chat here for an afternoon
24:47
Speaker 5: Friday afternoon.
24:48
Speaker 2: Everybody's at work, everybody's doing something. What's work? I don't know.
24:52
Speaker 2: That's gonna do it.
24:53
Speaker 5: I gotta get my Instagram videos out, peace.
25:00
Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet.
25:01
Speaker 3: Don't you fade from the floor. Your name stells me
25:05
Speaker 3: something to somebody for show.
25:07
Speaker 1: Put the glass down, baby, look at me.
25:12
Speaker 4: Now hold on, hold on nothing nice up, now hold
25:24
Speaker 4: on hold on.
25:28
Speaker 1: Let me pull you that bites hard, but it don't
25:38
Speaker 1: get the crown. Hold on, hold on
25:44
Speaker 2: And stay with me now