Latest / Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast / Big 12 Betting Bonanza - Part Two | Win Totals, Futures & Best Bets

Transcript

Big 12 Betting Bonanza - Part Two | Win Totals, Futures & Best Bets · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

• 0:03
  Welcome everybody to Part 2 of our Big 12 common previews as
• 0:08
  targeting winners. I am Darren and up here in once
• 0:11
  again Chile, New York states joined 5 peak back in the
• 0:15
  states. How we doing man?
• 0:17
  You adjusted back to being an American or not yet?
• 0:21
  No, no, I'd like to leave. I mean, it's very expensive
• 0:24
  here. It's kind of cold here, although
• 0:25
  it's actually kind of nice today.
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  But yeah, I I'm ready to go back, but I am back in Michigan.
• 0:30
  I'm back here for, well, getting ready for the season and all
• 0:34
  this good stuff in these previews.
• 0:35
  But yeah, excited to be here, excited to do this one.
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  One of my favorite teams is in this group, so I'm excited to
• 0:41
  talk about them. And thanks to whoever invented
• 0:43
  the alphabet, we will be saving them for last, which is you
• 0:48
  might notice we we are down 1 Tim a little bit under the
• 0:51
  weather, but in true team fashion, he set up all these
• 0:55
  graphics for us, put them in order for us because Pete and I
• 0:59
  technologically are like nursery school age.
• 1:01
  So hopefully our content won't be good because me trying to
• 1:06
  figure out these slides is no doubt going to be a train wreck.
• 1:10
  But in true degenerate fashion, Tim did fire off a bit and we
• 1:13
  will get into that later on. So you ready, man, to knock out
• 1:17
  the last half of this conference?
• 1:19
  Let's do it. All right, man, let us start
• 1:23
  with the Kansas J and again, these odds, Tim made these up.
• 1:26
  He is in Florida. The only app he has access to is
• 1:28
  Hard Rock. We've got some FanDuel numbers
• 1:31
  here, so if there's a big difference, we will let you know
• 1:34
  right here. Kansas plus 3000 win the
• 1:36
  conference. FanDuel does have plus 3500 if
• 1:39
  you feel like betting them there.
• 1:40
  Over Under a win total set at 5 1/2.
• 1:45
  Pete, what do we think about The Jayhawks this season?
• 1:48
  Yeah, I mean, it's a team that has been relatively solid and I
• 1:52
  would expect that to continue, right?
• 1:54
  They're not really sneaking up on anybody, not that they're
• 1:56
  world beaters or anything, but they're pretty solid team.
• 1:59
  They're dangerous, you know, playing them any time is, is, is
• 2:03
  can be absolutely concerning, especially at home.
• 2:06
  So they are well organized. I mean, I, I like the coach.
• 2:08
  I like the way he keeps this team structured.
• 2:11
  So I do like the team. What I don't love so much is
• 2:17
  that that schedule can't be right.
• 2:18
  So it's got Utah twice in a row from October 3rd.
• 2:20
  We got an. Extra line at the bottom there,
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  but yeah. If they play out Utah twice in a
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  row, they're going to lose both games.
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  But you know, I mean, that's probably not going to go well
• 2:28
  for them. But what I really don't like, I
• 2:31
  think this is actually a pretty decent team.
• 2:33
  I mean, I think they're, they're solid.
• 2:35
  I like the coaching, I like the structure.
• 2:37
  I think they're, they're, you know, the overall depth is
• 2:39
  pretty good. I do not like the schedule.
• 2:42
  I I mean, other than the beginning, fine.
• 2:44
  But after that, I mean, at Utah, that's a problem.
• 2:48
  We talked about Baylor last time that Baylor's going to be a
• 2:50
  problem. Think at CTCU could be a
• 2:53
  problem. I well, well, not the tip my
• 2:56
  hand too much, but at at Rich Rod could be a problem at
• 3:00
  Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, which I'll talk about when we get to
• 3:02
  them, could also be a problem. So I like the team.
• 3:06
  I hate the schedule. I I think these Rd. games are a
• 3:08
  real problem. So that 5 1/2, I mean, I toyed
• 3:12
  with it. I kicked it around.
• 3:13
  I was like, where can I find 6? And I really had a problem
• 3:17
  trying to find six That that was the issue.
• 3:21
  I think the schedule is just just tough for for a pretty
• 3:26
  solid team. They're not great, but they're a
• 3:28
  solid team. So that's my thoughts in Kansas.
• 3:30
  I I would bet them if their schedule is better, but the
• 3:33
  schedule is just not really leaning into it.
• 3:35
  So those are my thoughts. Yeah, this is a team that
• 3:38
  historically on the road is not very good defensively.
• 3:41
  The last three years or so, they've given up just under 27
• 3:43
  points a game. There's been no improvement on
• 3:45
  that on that side of the ball. A lot of defensive production
• 3:49
  returning, so I'm not really sure if this defense is going to
• 3:52
  get any better. And obviously offensively this
• 3:55
  team went as Jalen Daniels went and now he's gone.
• 3:58
  So I would expect a slight regression from them
• 4:02
  offensively. And you had mentioned this
• 4:04
  schedule. I mean all five of those Rd.
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  games, they're so easily losable because you don't know what
• 4:09
  you're going to get out of this offense.
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  Throwing a non conference game there against Missouri and then
• 4:14
  that overseas game, London against Arizona State.
• 4:17
  So this is basically just to break it down again, like a 5
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  year old is like, well, they were you know, the last two
• 4:26
  years they were A5 win team with Jalen Daniels.
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  What? What are they going to be
• 4:30
  without him and with this Schedule I?
• 4:32
  Don't know. Yeah, it's not good.
• 4:33
  Yeah, yeah. So I'm predicting a rough season
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  here for The Jayhawks. DraftKings thankfully came out
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  with some win totes yesterday, so if you do like the under, I
• 4:46
  have 5 1/2 like I do, you can get a very nice and juicy plus
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  1:45. So I'm rolling with you on here
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  on The Jayhawks. 1 unit under, 5 1/2 wins and obviously no
• 4:58
  interest in the conference. Don't see it?
• 5:02
  On that schedule, I mean, I, I love that bet because I, I
• 5:04
  really don't see five wins there.
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  So I, I, I think you're safely knocked on something safely
• 5:11
  under. But yeah, unless they come out
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  and somehow they're world beaters, which we don't expect
• 5:15
  them to be, that this is just not their year.
• 5:18
  That schedule's brutal. I didn't even talk about at
• 5:20
  Kansas State, which is is brutal as well, so.
• 5:23
  Yeah. I mean let's we're going to get
• 5:25
  into them in a second and they they seem to be an up and coming
• 5:28
  team. Everybody likes the head
• 5:29
  coaching hire that they made and so without further ado, let's
• 5:33
  head into their cross state rivals here at Kansas State plus
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  2250 to win the conference. That's a much better number
• 5:40
  there at Hard Rock than what we currently have at FanDuel.
• 5:43
  Posted win total 7 1/2. Heavily juiced to the over here.
• 5:48
  So what are we thinking with Avery Johnson besides his
• 5:52
  excellent hair? Get Kansas State to to the
• 5:56
  conference title game and what do you think about this win
• 5:59
  total? Man, I mean, that's for a new
• 6:02
  coach, a whole new structure that's pretty lofty.
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  That said, I think this team is actually going to be pretty
• 6:10
  good. So I, I, I can see where that's
• 6:12
  coming from. So I'm not disputing the number.
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  It's just when you're changing a head coach like that and you're
• 6:17
  not like an elite school, Kansas State, you know, they're on the
• 6:20
  verge of being, but not quite elite and that that's a little
• 6:23
  concerning. So that's it, right?
• 6:26
  I mean, look at their schedule. I think their schedule plays
• 6:29
  better. That's the schedule we just
• 6:30
  looked at. I mean, you know, Colorado is
• 6:32
  going to be hot garbage. You know, Oklahoma State at
• 6:36
  home. I think will be an interesting
• 6:38
  game. So I do like Oklahoma State, but
• 6:39
  that should be a good game at TCUI mean.
• 6:42
  So if you look at the schedule, there's there's quite a few wins
• 6:44
  you can you can check off here as opposed to the last one we
• 6:46
  looked at. This is a good roster
• 6:49
  competitive most weeks. That's what I would expect here.
• 6:52
  You know, so I think there's in terms of being safe, I mean in
• 6:56
  terms of a number of wins, you know, I can probably pick out
• 6:59
  seven wins here that are pretty safe.
• 7:01
  So the question is what's after that?
• 7:04
  We'll have to see how it plays out the first couple weeks.
• 7:06
  I don't I don't have a bet here, but I am intrigued by this team.
• 7:09
  I'm intrigued by the coaching staff.
• 7:11
  I'm intrigued where I can go. I do like their players.
• 7:14
  So, you know, I think there's certainly some upside here.
• 7:17
  I mean, at 7 1/2, you know what I lean over, probably don't have
• 7:23
  a bet here, but I, I do like this team and I think they're
• 7:26
  they're, I think they made the right coaching hire.
• 7:29
  I really do like this coaching hire.
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  So I think longer term going forward, I think it's going to
• 7:33
  be excellent. So that's my thought.
• 7:35
  Yeah, I I took a quick peek at this schedule and I was, I did
• 7:37
  not see BYU, Utah or Texas Techs, but I was like, well, you
• 7:41
  can't really ask for more if you're in this conference as far
• 7:44
  as schedule goes. You meant, yeah, offensively
• 7:47
  they should be really good. All all the skill position
• 7:49
  players are coming back. Only concern offense line only
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  brings back one starter. So you do need to get that unit
• 7:55
  to jail sooner rather than later.
• 7:57
  But that beginning schedule, you certainly have some time to work
• 8:01
  with it. They're probably not even a
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  potential loss until that October 10th tilt.
• 8:06
  Again, Houston. And again, that's a home game
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  defensively. You know, I do have some
• 8:11
  questions. They've never been a solid
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  defensive team, like middle of the pack, only three defensive
• 8:16
  starters returning. So hey, you know what we we love
• 8:19
  when the defense isn't that great.
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  Not a lot of people are returning to it, so maybe
• 8:22
  they'll improve a little bit there.
• 8:24
  But yeah, the head coaching higher is great.
• 8:26
  They say he should be able to do wonders with Avery Johnson
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  getting back to to his 2024 level of production.
• 8:34
  But yeah, the juice is so high on over 7 1/2.
• 8:37
  I couldn't do anything with it as well.
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  But I agree. I mean, this isn't, I think this
• 8:42
  is at least an 8 win team, possibly 9 potentially playing
• 8:47
  in the Big 12 title game. There's a group of maybe like 5
• 8:51
  or 6 teams that I think could could potentially meet or even
• 8:55
  replace Texas Tech should things fall apart for them.
• 8:58
  But yeah, I lean to the over as well.
• 9:00
  I have no bet here 'cause that juice look at like -162 at
• 9:04
  FanDuel, I don't want to go. So all right, so yeah, we do
• 9:08
  both like Kansas State. But yeah, if you want to go over
• 9:10
  that win total, wouldn't blame you.
• 9:12
  But yeah, juice a little high for us here.
• 9:15
  All right, moving on, how about them Cowboys, Oklahoma State,
• 9:21
  Point O, however you want to refer to them +3000 to win the
• 9:26
  conference. Looks like a Fanduel's got them
• 9:27
  at plus 3300 over under set at 5 1/2.
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  This is a FanDuel. At least this is heavily juiced
• 9:34
  to the over here. 1:00 and 11:00 last season.
• 9:38
  Probably not doing that again. Is this team getting back to a
• 9:42
  bowl game? What do you think?
• 9:44
  That's a good question. I mean, you spent two years of
• 9:46
  therapy after betting on this team a couple years ago.
• 9:49
  So, you know, coming around, I'm sure you're feeling maybe
• 9:51
  slightly better. I don't know if there's a team
• 9:53
  of therapists working you through that, but you know, it's
• 9:55
  probably OK. 5 1/2 wins. I mean, I love the over here,
• 10:00
  except you already mentioned it. The juice is just just absurd.
• 10:06
  I mean from the FanDuel side, I think it's like 164 even
• 10:11
  DraftKings like 140 or something, which I still think
• 10:13
  is pretty, pretty juicy. I like this team.
• 10:18
  I really, really wanted to bet them here for this over.
• 10:21
  I just don't like the juice. The juice doesn't make any sense
• 10:23
  to me. I like the coaching change.
• 10:24
  I like what they're doing here. I like I think that this is a
• 10:27
  team that could be on the ascension here over a couple
• 10:30
  years. I I think that the schedule
• 10:33
  plays in pretty well for them for that over.
• 10:36
  So and there's a lot of factors in play here that would suggest,
• 10:41
  you know, a team that's going to be on the ascent, good coaching
• 10:44
  staff, decent player structure, schedule plays in really well
• 10:49
  for an over and there's a lot of very positive things here.
• 10:52
  What's so obviously? So where's the juice?
• 10:55
  I mean, it's it's it's speaking to all that, right?
• 10:56
  It's saying it's seeing the same thing we are, which is, yeah,
• 11:00
  there there's a lot of opportunity upside here and
• 11:02
  you're going to have to pay for it and you're going to have to,
• 11:04
  you're going to have to eat that juice if you want to.
• 11:06
  So I didn't feel that good about it.
• 11:09
  I I really didn't. I think, I mean, I like it.
• 11:11
  I think this team is good. I I think that there's a lot of
• 11:14
  upside with this team. Honestly, I went through the
• 11:17
  schedule, just looking through like all the games here.
• 11:20
  I mean, you know, early on, you know, I think they can get four
• 11:25
  wins pretty pretty easily here if you look at the schedule,
• 11:28
  right? Tulsa, Murray State, UCF and
• 11:29
  Colorado, likely losses. There's four of them here,
• 11:32
  right? Oregon, Iowa State, Kansas State
• 11:34
  and Texas Tech. So it leaves you sitting at
• 11:36
  essentially 4 and 4, right? Theoretically.
• 11:39
  So what do you need? You need 2 out of four to get
• 11:41
  over, and that's West Virginia, Houston, Arizona State and
• 11:46
  Kansas. Can they win two of those?
• 11:48
  Yes, they can. Are they going to win at Rich
• 11:50
  Rod? No, they're not.
• 11:51
  But they could have went to the other three.
• 11:52
  Yes, they could. So is this a team that could
• 11:55
  absolutely get the six and over? Yes.
• 11:57
  I just don't think the juice is worth it.
• 11:59
  So that's my thought here. You're up.
• 12:02
  Yeah, actually I kind of took a peek at the other way because,
• 12:05
  you know, once everybody from North Texas went and as soon as
• 12:08
  mess maker committed there, I just feel like that juice is so
• 12:12
  baked into all the hype. I hear me out for a case for the
• 12:16
  under. OK.
• 12:18
  Plus 134 and the juice is the only reason I I thought.
• 12:21
  Of well, sure, it's intriguing at that number, right?
• 12:24
  Yeah, I mean, not offensively, yes, they're going to be a
• 12:26
  million times better. They probably had the worst QB
• 12:29
  room in the country last year. So obviously they're going to be
• 12:33
  100 times better offensively. Yes.
• 12:36
  Defensively, this team stung last year.
• 12:39
  OK, nobody in the Big 12 gave up more points than them.
• 12:42
  Only Colorado gave up more yards than them and fine, you want to
• 12:46
  bring over your entire North Texas team.
• 12:48
  They kind of suck defensively also.
• 12:50
  So you had talked about those four swing games.
• 12:53
  West Virginia could could certainly be a loss at Houston
• 12:57
  could certainly be a loss. You don't know what Qatar Bully
• 13:01
  and Arizona State are going to look like at this point.
• 13:05
  I can't totally say that this is a six and six team.
• 13:09
  I mean, yeah, they, they should beat Tulsa.
• 13:11
  Yeah, we we all know they lost to Tulsa last year at home.
• 13:15
  You know they're going to revenge game.
• 13:18
  They're going to they're going to win Tulsa.
• 13:19
  Would be a revenge game, but I mean, Oregon and non conference,
• 13:23
  that's probably not going to go well at West Virginia.
• 13:26
  I mean, you look at that, that left column that, you know, they
• 13:28
  could easily have two, yeah. They could be where they got
• 13:31
  Tulsa, Murray State, UC. They could be 3 and 2 going into
• 13:35
  the second-half of their schedule.
• 13:37
  Houston, they could lose Kansas State, they could lose Texas
• 13:39
  Tech, they'll probably lose. And Arizona State becomes that
• 13:42
  game, whether whether they're going to hit that or not.
• 13:46
  I just think with all the hype baked in, I think you can get a,
• 13:50
  you know, obviously having some nice juice on the under 5 1/2.
• 13:55
  I kind of looked at that just to kind of, you know, play the
• 13:58
  other side of it here. You know, much, much like with
• 14:02
  Kansas State, I mean, they have a defense that that you can't
• 14:04
  completely trust. And when your defense is not
• 14:07
  that good, it really puts so much pressure on the offense to
• 14:11
  come away with points like every single drive.
• 14:13
  And you know, that just doesn't happen.
• 14:15
  So I don't have a bet either way.
• 14:18
  I totally get where you're coming from, but I just kind of
• 14:21
  saw that nice plus number, looked at the under and I'm
• 14:24
  like, God, would that be the dumbest thing in the world to to
• 14:28
  throw a unit on that? I don't think it.
• 14:34
  I didn't do it, but you wouldn't have to twist my arm to convince
• 14:38
  me that this is a 5 and 17. Yeah, it's interesting, right?
• 14:42
  This is a really good discussion, right, Because we
• 14:44
  are talking about how the juice is is kind of leading our bets,
• 14:48
  right, Meaning that you might think something very strongly.
• 14:51
  I think that the over on this team is obvious, whatever you
• 14:54
  might think, but the juice might make you think that.
• 14:56
  Well, that's great. But clearly everybody else
• 14:59
  thinks so too. So maybe I don't want to go
• 15:00
  there in this case. Yeah, I mean, it's interesting
• 15:03
  because I do feel pretty strongly that they can get the
• 15:08
  six. I do think they'll be at Arizona
• 15:10
  State. I, I, I, you know, so I do think
• 15:13
  but but right, maybe not right. And if things play the wrong
• 15:17
  direction, if the right person gets hurt or whatever the the
• 15:20
  heck happens, that juice is pretty enticing on the bottom
• 15:23
  side there. And so sometimes the juice can
• 15:25
  lead you toward a bet that you maybe not we're going to that.
• 15:29
  That could be the case. And I agree with you.
• 15:31
  I mean, it's enticing. I wouldn't do it because I don't
• 15:33
  think that's going to happen, but it is enticing.
• 15:37
  It really is. Yeah.
• 15:37
  See, I don't think it's going to happen either.
• 15:39
  But I just think with all the all the hype that they've
• 15:41
  already been getting since, you know, Mr. Maker and Eric Morris
• 15:44
  went over there, I just thought, you know what, maybe now's a
• 15:47
  good time to jump on the other side of that.
• 15:49
  And you know, I, I agree with you that Arizona State game
• 15:53
  could could be the swing game because I don't think they're
• 15:56
  losing at home to Kansas, but. And if they get better through
• 16:00
  the year, which I would expect they're going to do with a new
• 16:02
  regime and all that, they're going to get better.
• 16:04
  I I think that Kansas game at the end of the year is going to
• 16:06
  be interesting too. It's it's at home.
• 16:08
  I mean, I think they could win that game and then that's that
• 16:11
  could be interesting. So intriguing team, right?
• 16:14
  Just yeah, it's like right on that border.
• 16:16
  It's really intriguing. We'll see what happens.
• 16:18
  But yeah, it's you could go either way on this thing.
• 16:21
  Just eating that juice. On the upside, man, that's
• 16:24
  that's, that's a lot. Yeah, definitely the most
• 16:26
  intriguing team coming into this season for the Big 12, I think.
• 16:30
  All right, God, love me some of this team there.
• 16:34
  All right, TCU, baby. The Horn Frogs a few years
• 16:37
  removed from a national championship appearance plus
• 16:42
  2500 to win the conference that that number did entice me a
• 16:47
  little bit over under set at 6 1/2.
• 16:50
  Very much juice to the over here.
• 16:53
  I this was my second bet and I did cross it off due to the
• 17:00
  juice. I was hoping when DraftKings
• 17:03
  came out maybe I could get like a -, 120 but no such luck.
• 17:08
  I do have a lean to the over here.
• 17:09
  I kind of like what this team is bringing.
• 17:12
  What? What do you think about the
• 17:14
  Armed Frogs this year? What do you think?
• 17:16
  Is there any chance that this could potentially be a contender
• 17:19
  for the conference? I mean if things roll the right
• 17:21
  way. I mean do.
• 17:23
  You if they roll the right way, but when I show that schedule,
• 17:26
  you look at November and I wouldn't blame you if you got
• 17:29
  scared off. Yeah, I mean that this offense
• 17:31
  should be rolling, right? They're going to.
• 17:32
  They should be scoring. I would expect that.
• 17:34
  So what is the defense going to do?
• 17:36
  That's the big question here. But yeah, I mean, I think this,
• 17:40
  I mean, if you look at this schedule, yeah, I mean, it's
• 17:44
  it's intriguing. This is a really intriguing
• 17:46
  team. I don't have a bet here, but I
• 17:48
  but I like where you're going with this.
• 17:49
  I mean, I think this is a team that has, I mean, they're
• 17:51
  starting off what in in North, in in Dublin, playing UNC
• 17:56
  interesting game. I think that I think that's a
• 17:59
  winnable game for them for sure. And a little bit of national
• 18:02
  exposure being in one of those games I think is good.
• 18:05
  So I think there's some things that will help them.
• 18:07
  Grambling's going to be a win, I don't think a whole lot of UCF.
• 18:11
  So I think that that could be a win.
• 18:13
  Are you start to look at some of these games and Baylor's a
• 18:15
  problem. West Virginia, once again, I
• 18:17
  don't know. Yeah, it's intrigue.
• 18:20
  I mean, if things play out the right way and Kansas maybe is
• 18:25
  not that good, who knows? We'll see what happens there.
• 18:29
  Yeah, I mean, this, this is a team that could potentially end
• 18:33
  up in the championship game. I could right it.
• 18:36
  This is a weird conference. We talked about it last week,
• 18:38
  right? This is a conference where
• 18:40
  there's so many teams in this middle area that which one is
• 18:43
  going to like come out and which ones are going to fade.
• 18:47
  It's really hard to tell. But this team has got some of
• 18:50
  the components where they could they could do something here.
• 18:52
  So it's really interesting to see what they do.
• 18:55
  Yeah, I am dying to see what this team looks like post Josh
• 18:59
  Hoover. They brought in Jayden Craig,
• 19:02
  Harvard transfer who was was excellent at Harvard.
• 19:05
  But I always worry about a guy from I, I worry about a group of
• 19:12
  five guy coming up to a Power 4 conference.
• 19:14
  So I worry even more about, you know, somebody coming from
• 19:17
  Harvard. However, he was excellent at
• 19:19
  Harvard. But I think the next thing they
• 19:21
  did, I mean, they extended Sunny Dykes.
• 19:24
  I don't know if that was the greatest thing ever, But the
• 19:26
  offensive coordinator from Connecticut, we all know how
• 19:29
  good Connecticut was. They were surprisingly good last
• 19:32
  year. Their quarterback, almost 3500
• 19:34
  yards, 28 TDs to only one pick. They had a running back, Cam
• 19:39
  Edwards, over 1200 yards, 15 touchdowns.
• 19:42
  And they had the NFL draft ready to go.
• 19:45
  Ready to go, guys. Skylar Bell, who had 101
• 19:47
  catches, almost 1300 yards and 13 touchdowns.
• 19:50
  Gordon Sammis is the offense coordinator's name.
• 19:53
  He came over from Connecticut after Moore left for Colorado
• 19:56
  State. I cannot wait to watch this
• 19:59
  North Carolina game and see what these guys look like
• 20:01
  offensively. I think they're going to be OK
• 20:04
  Defensively. They did lose a lot of their
• 20:07
  linebacking core, which kind of sucks.
• 20:09
  They don't really get to the quarterback lot.
• 20:10
  They only had 24 sacks last year.
• 20:13
  The two linebackers they combined for, six of them,
• 20:15
  they're gone. So.
• 20:17
  The whole defensive line is coming back.
• 20:19
  I would love to see them get a little more pressure on opposing
• 20:22
  QBs, but I don't think the loss of Hoover is going to be that
• 20:28
  big a deal. I agree.
• 20:30
  I agree with that. Yeah, I mean, they've got
• 20:32
  they've got some nice skill pieces to to work with here.
• 20:35
  So. But then I got to November.
• 20:39
  Yeah. Well, that's that's tough.
• 20:42
  Because I was going through the schedule just like you.
• 20:44
  Wow, they could be undefeated going against BYUBYU always
• 20:47
  struggles when they go to TCU. So as much as I do, we need them
• 20:51
  to win that game for our future bets.
• 20:54
  It wouldn't surprise me if BYU struggles there, but then like,
• 20:58
  you know, the road game against Bear, like you said, could be
• 21:00
  tough the West Virginia. Game.
• 21:03
  Yeah. I mean, at Arizona is going to
• 21:05
  be tough Kansas State and Utah is going to be tough at Texas
• 21:07
  Tech. Is every one of those capes is
• 21:09
  tough? I mean, yeah, it's.
• 21:11
  Like can the season end on October 31st?
• 21:13
  That would be great. But like you said, can they can
• 21:19
  they win one of those home games, Kansas State and Utah?
• 21:22
  Could they go to Arizona and win?
• 21:24
  Maybe. Yeah, maybe.
• 21:27
  Yeah, I don't discount that. Yeah, they certainly could.
• 21:29
  They have the talent to do it. I think they could, sure.
• 21:32
  So it's interesting that, but that second-half of the schedule
• 21:34
  is just rough. I mean, that's that's the issue
• 21:38
  with TCU is that, jeez, I wouldn't want that schedule.
• 21:42
  That's. Yeah, no, that scared me away.
• 21:43
  Like I said, Jaden Craig supposedly good, but like, you
• 21:46
  know, yeah, I I always just started thinking negatively.
• 21:48
  All right, well, if you were that good, but what?
• 21:50
  Why is it now you're, you know, you're up to this level, some
• 21:54
  school should have got you well before that.
• 21:56
  So we'll see. I mean, we remember Tim's
• 21:59
  favorite player. What the hell was his name?
• 22:02
  Gio Lopez. He went from a group of five
• 22:04
  school to the ACC and he was a. Disaster that did not go well.
• 22:08
  That went very, very bad. This guy coming from Harvard,
• 22:11
  he's going to be smart. You would think so, I would
• 22:14
  think. Smartest guy on the field.
• 22:16
  Right, I would think he can read defenses.
• 22:18
  I would think he can do some of those things, which Gio clearly
• 22:21
  could not do last year. So at least that right, If he's
• 22:24
  got a decent skill set, which he does have, if you go back and
• 22:27
  watch his tape, he's a he's a good player and he brings that
• 22:30
  with him. I mean, in the right system, I
• 22:33
  mean that could that could work very well, right?
• 22:35
  I mean, just let him like get the ball out quick, like put him
• 22:39
  in a position to to be successful, which I'm hoping
• 22:42
  they do. And he he very well could be.
• 22:44
  So we'll see. Yeah, there's a lot of nice
• 22:47
  games on week 0 actually lining up, but for for the purposes of
• 22:51
  of this, you know, this show and fun, I could not wait to see the
• 22:56
  TCUUNC game because. That's going to be fun.
• 22:59
  I'd have no, I, my, my feeling of UNC is the same as last year
• 23:02
  dumpster fire. So we'll see how that goes when
• 23:04
  we're not there yet, but I, I think they can go in there and
• 23:07
  just pummel UNC. I think they're very capable of
• 23:09
  doing so. So we'll see how that goes.
• 23:12
  All right, moving on halfway through, do we even need to
• 23:17
  discuss this? I mean, they're like minus what
• 23:20
  happened to my. There we go.
• 23:22
  They're. A favorite by 100 miles at.
• 23:24
  Least 120, geez. God damn.
• 23:28
  And this is even worse at Vandal.
• 23:29
  It's like -140 I think to win the conference win total 11 1/2.
• 23:36
  If you think they're going undefeated in the regular
• 23:37
  season, you can get nice plus money on that.
• 23:39
  So there is. That.
• 23:43
  I mean, yeah, they dominated the portal again.
• 23:46
  They lost a ton on defense, but replaced a fair amount of it.
• 23:50
  They weren't really good at the quarterback position.
• 23:51
  They obviously addressed that with the best quarterback in the
• 23:54
  portal. Depending on whose rankings you
• 23:56
  use offensively, they should be better.
• 23:59
  Defensively, they may be not as good, but they're still going to
• 24:02
  be better than the majority of the teams in the conference.
• 24:05
  The schedule is pathetic. There's no BYU, Houston or Utah
• 24:08
  on it. Arizona comes to them, God is
• 24:14
  there. I mean, are these guys a lock
• 24:16
  for the for the title game at? Worst, I don't know.
• 24:20
  I don't know. I mean for the in the
• 24:22
  conference, sure, probably. But there's that number, right?
• 24:25
  11 1/2. Yeah.
• 24:29
  Man I man, I don't. I mean, I'm not the one who has
• 24:35
  to. Go right, I mean, but it's like.
• 24:39
  I mean, obviously there's no point We're a betting show,
• 24:41
  right? There's no point in betting on
• 24:44
  them to win the conference. It just it doesn't make any damn
• 24:46
  sense where there's no money to be made.
• 24:48
  It doesn't make any damn sense. So forget that that over, under,
• 24:51
  OK, go where you have their schedule, 11 1/2 wins.
• 24:55
  They got to get 12 wins to go over.
• 25:01
  I don't, I don't like that. I I think there are losable
• 25:05
  games, not that their schedule's all that ridiculously difficult,
• 25:10
  but there are losable games here.
• 25:11
  They're going to Baylor, they're going to Oklahoma State and
• 25:14
  their plan was for Jenna and Holmes.
• 25:15
  That's probably a win, but whatever.
• 25:17
  I'm but still. I mean could they lose to
• 25:18
  Baylor? Yeah, they could at Baylor.
• 25:22
  Could they lose to Oklahoma State on the road at that's
• 25:25
  possible TCU if they're good enough at the last game, could
• 25:29
  they win that game even there? Maybe I don't see a clear path
• 25:34
  to 12 wins here. I mean, so if I was going to bet
• 25:38
  anything with Texas Tech, it would be the under.
• 25:40
  I just think they're going to stumble.
• 25:42
  I don't think they're that consistent.
• 25:44
  I, I don't like the way they played later in the year, last
• 25:47
  year. I, I just, I don't think they
• 25:49
  stepped up what they needed to. So I think there are some, some,
• 25:53
  some issues with this team structurally.
• 25:56
  I'm not sure what the hell that is, but I was going to play
• 25:59
  anything. I'd play the under here because
• 26:00
  I think they will stub their toe and all they need to do because
• 26:03
  it's 11 1/2 is stub their toe once and I think that's
• 26:08
  probable. I think those two weeks,
• 26:11
  November 14th and 21st, those two games in a row is tough even
• 26:15
  for a team this good. That's tough coming out of
• 26:18
  Oklahoma State. Even if they win and go to
• 26:20
  Baylor and have to perform at Baylor like that, I think is
• 26:24
  challenging. I think that's a potential
• 26:26
  problem. So I like the team.
• 26:28
  Obviously they are the far and away, you know, leader in this
• 26:31
  conference. Their schedule is not that
• 26:32
  difficult. Not a big surprise that they're
• 26:35
  the far and away leader, but if you're going to bet anything,
• 26:38
  the over under, I would consider the under because I think that
• 26:42
  is interesting. Those last three games, are they
• 26:44
  going to win all three? I don't think they will.
• 26:46
  I think they'll go 2 and one and that could lead to that under.
• 26:49
  So that's where my thought is on this.
• 26:51
  The only thing the only issue I have with that is the under is
• 26:54
  so heavily juiced because the level half is plus.
• 26:57
  Once again, right? Yeah, because the number is so
• 26:59
  high. What?
• 27:02
  Would you think about betting them to actually win the
• 27:05
  conference like Hard Rock? We shows -120 fanduel's -140 I,
• 27:10
  I don't have DraftKings up. I don't know what that is.
• 27:13
  Because we know as we get closer to the season, your magazines
• 27:18
  are going to come out, There's going to be more preview shows.
• 27:21
  It's going to be a Texas Tech love fest.
• 27:23
  That number could get worse. Now you can be looking at some
• 27:27
  one fifties, one 60s if you have access to Hard Rock and you
• 27:31
  wanted to jump on -120 right now for the conference.
• 27:36
  I mean, because of the juice wouldn't make sense, right?
• 27:40
  Because this is the expected winner of the conference.
• 27:43
  I just don't like betting on expected winners because there's
• 27:48
  so much pressure and everybody's aiming at them and I to me,
• 27:51
  that's just a recipe for disaster.
• 27:54
  So yeah, the juice makes sense. Winning the conference,
• 27:58
  obviously everybody's got them. Obviously he's a favorite by
• 28:02
  far. I don't like the betting angle
• 28:05
  on that at all It just I don't know I just this is the non bet
• 28:08
  to me with this team all together.
• 28:10
  I just. Oh, I agree, I'm just saying
• 28:11
  because if you remember last year, everybody was like Clemson
• 28:15
  this, Clemson that and every week the juice on Clemson win
• 28:18
  the conference got -120 -, 130 and they were a train wreck.
• 28:22
  So I'm just thinking if you're going to, if you want something
• 28:25
  where you don't want ridiculous juice, maybe at that -120 and
• 28:30
  just. That's not bad.
• 28:31
  That's not bad. That number's not.
• 28:34
  Horrible. So I can't touch this team, man.
• 28:36
  I mean, something happens to Sores B, you have just like 1
• 28:39
  fluke somewhere. And yeah, that November schedule
• 28:42
  could is, is very tricky. So yeah.
• 28:45
  I better, better places to put your money, right.
• 28:47
  We have so many teams and so many opportunities to bet here
• 28:51
  over like the next 6-6 months, whatever, 3, whatever, four
• 28:54
  months, five months, whatever it is.
• 28:55
  We're going to be talking about all these previews.
• 28:56
  There's so many better places to put your money.
• 28:58
  I just wouldn't put it here. I just I don't see the upside
• 29:01
  here. Yeah, to everything needs to go,
• 29:04
  right? And that's just not, not, you
• 29:06
  know, we need to sweat that out every week.
• 29:08
  All right? Our last CFB dude, college
• 29:12
  football trip. Oh, Nope.
• 29:13
  He didn't put those in alphabetical order.
• 29:15
  I. Not bad, it's all right.
• 29:18
  That's fine. We'll stay with Utah.
• 29:19
  We're good. We went to a high school in
• 29:22
  upstate New York. We we didn't really know the
• 29:24
  alphabet. We don't know.
• 29:25
  What the hell again. Hey by the way.
• 29:27
  It. Was a music major.
• 29:29
  So This is why we get this. He can't add, he's can't
• 29:35
  alphabetical order. It doesn't work.
• 29:37
  I. Mean, to be fair, they both
• 29:39
  start with you. I mean so at least.
• 29:41
  We I bet that that's about as far as they can go.
• 29:43
  First letter that's. OK, baby steps, Tim.
• 29:45
  We hope we're. Not asking too much.
• 29:49
  All right, let's talk about the Utah Utes 7 to 1 to win the
• 29:52
  conference. Fanduel's actually got 9 to 1,
• 29:55
  so if you are a believer in the utes you can get yourself a nice
• 29:57
  number at FanDuel here. Win total 8 1/2.
• 30:01
  Slightly juiced to the over 11 win team last year.
• 30:04
  Everybody left for Ann Arbor. I have doubts.
• 30:12
  What? What say you?
• 30:15
  Well, yeah, I mean, I'm very happy that Kyle and his whole
• 30:18
  posse are at my Wolverines right now.
• 30:20
  I'm very excited about that. That doesn't do Utah a lot of a
• 30:23
  lot of good. So I do also have my this is a
• 30:28
  good team. Let's just be clear, right?
• 30:31
  This is a team even with the people leaving and all that,
• 30:35
  this is a team that's been very good at having talent and
• 30:38
  recruiting talent and it's been a stable, solid team.
• 30:42
  Now how much of that is Kyle? How how much of that I don't
• 30:46
  know. So that's where my doubts come
• 30:48
  from when you have a a coaching change of this magnitude, when I
• 30:51
  say this magnitude, somebody who's been there for so flippin
• 30:55
  long like this, this this program was his baby, right?
• 31:01
  And so he leaves wherever he goes is irrelevant.
• 31:04
  He's out. Wow.
• 31:06
  I mean that's you choose to fill.
• 31:09
  That is a massive change in a program.
• 31:12
  And, and as good as this team has been consistently, it's been
• 31:15
  a pretty good team. Yeah.
• 31:18
  You cannot expect a team to just continue on with a massive
• 31:23
  change of that magnitude. I just, I can't see that.
• 31:26
  So I don't know what to do with this team.
• 31:28
  And that's why I don't have a bet here.
• 31:30
  I I, I, I mean, I like Utah. I'd like to see them continue to
• 31:33
  be successful. I don't think their schedule is
• 31:37
  horrendous, Ray. The schedule is tolerable,
• 31:41
  average down the middle, maybe lesser than down the middle.
• 31:45
  It's not a bad schedule. So for a team that's going
• 31:48
  through massive change like that, to get a schedule like
• 31:51
  this, I think is helpful. So I do think they could be.
• 31:55
  I think they're going to be good, but do I think they're
• 31:57
  going to be the same? No.
• 31:59
  And yeah. I just didn't know what to do
• 32:01
  with them from the betting perspective, just with Kyle gone
• 32:04
  and his whole team gone and players gone and everything
• 32:06
  else. Like I don't like betting on
• 32:08
  teams that just have that massive of a change at one time
• 32:12
  because you just don't know what they're going to do.
• 32:14
  You just don't know what's going to happen.
• 32:15
  You think you might know they could have hired, you know, best
• 32:19
  college football coach in history or something and brought
• 32:22
  him in there. At the end of the day, I still
• 32:25
  don't know, right? I still just don't know how it's
• 32:27
  going to change, especially in year 1.
• 32:29
  That's what my concern is. Year one, don't know what's
• 32:31
  going to happen. So I'm out.
• 32:32
  But I think the team is actually going to be pretty decent.
• 32:35
  But the betting is for me is just.
• 32:36
  Yeah. Yeah, initially with, with, with
• 32:40
  low juice, like -128 at FanDuel to go over this win total, I, I
• 32:46
  could see a nine and three team here.
• 32:48
  But you already mentioned the coaching.
• 32:51
  You know, this Morgan Staley guy, he's been with Utah for
• 32:54
  like the last 20 years. I mean, is he like, OK, it's
• 32:59
  finally my time, I'm going to do things my way.
• 33:01
  Or am I just going to keep it the way Whittingham did And
• 33:04
  just, you know, you have no idea how he's going to?
• 33:08
  How and which is better? I'm not sure where the better
• 33:10
  is, his way or to stay with Kyle's way?
• 33:12
  I don't know what the better solution is, so I don't know.
• 33:14
  I mean, Kyle's had success, man. You, you would hope if you're a
• 33:17
  Utah fan, this guy doesn't change a whole lot.
• 33:19
  But the one thing I mean, now we love Devin Damir.
• 33:22
  He's one of our players, Joe. OK, so you guys took his
• 33:27
  offensive coordinator. Yeah, right.
• 33:30
  Begin with you. Whole new system, right?
• 33:34
  The only reason I think that could be detrimental to him now
• 33:37
  if they have the office partner from Utah State, I believe they
• 33:40
  scored a ton of points too. So maybe it's not terrible.
• 33:43
  But this was also Dan Beer's coordinator the year before when
• 33:47
  they were both at New Mexico together.
• 33:49
  So, you know, I don't know if Dan Beer knows anybody else like
• 33:53
  he knows Jason Beck. And now he's gone.
• 33:54
  So I, I wonder if this maybe effects him negatively to at
• 34:00
  least to get start now again, you look at the whole left side
• 34:02
  of that schedule. Yeah, they're they're come on.
• 34:05
  That's, that's all. I mean that's they'll be fine.
• 34:07
  They'll be fine. I mean, that's.
• 34:09
  A great chance to figure it out, and then even you know you'd go
• 34:12
  to Colorado half the right. Side too.
• 34:15
  I mean, come on, Colorado, Cincinnati.
• 34:16
  I mean, that's fine, whatever. Yeah, but I mean, you know, the
• 34:20
  Houston game could be tough. They look good.
• 34:22
  The BYU game is obviously going to be tough going to Arizona and
• 34:25
  going to TCU because, you know, back-to-back Rd. games, never
• 34:28
  easy to win both of those, especially when you got some
• 34:31
  potential quality opponents there.
• 34:32
  So and then again, West Virginia, you know, we all love
• 34:35
  us and some West Virginia on this show.
• 34:37
  I just don't know. There's a lot of head coaching
• 34:40
  uncertainty, like you said, I think the Ampere maybe takes a
• 34:43
  step back and he was actually statistically really good.
• 34:46
  A lot of people aren't aware of that because their games kick
• 34:49
  off, you know, much later than those of us like to stay up late
• 34:53
  for. But I worry, I mean, if I had to
• 34:57
  do anything, it would be the slightest lean to the over
• 35:00
  because they're going to get off to such a great start.
• 35:02
  I agree. But and.
• 35:05
  The schedule leans into that, right?
• 35:06
  The schedule speaks to that. And I, I, I don't know how you
• 35:10
  feel about like they, they, you know, they had this guy as the
• 35:13
  head coach in waiting. And then I guess they kind of I
• 35:15
  don't want to say force him out the door, but like, I mean, if
• 35:21
  you were AI mean and he's never head coach before.
• 35:23
  So it's it's not like he's got experience doing this at any
• 35:26
  other level anywhere else. I just you just don't know what
• 35:30
  they're going to look like. You would think they're going to
• 35:32
  let Dampier do his thing. They're going to have a solid
• 35:33
  defense. They'll be, you know, A10 win
• 35:35
  team, but too many, too many concerns there.
• 35:40
  I'd be 9 to 1 to get to the to win the conference.
• 35:43
  Sure. I mean, they could.
• 35:45
  They could, I might. I might lean that way too.
• 35:48
  But. Just to your point with the with
• 35:51
  the coach in waiting thing, head coach in waiting thing, show me
• 35:54
  two or three examples of a head coach in waiting that has
• 35:58
  actually taken over the program. There's been a bunch over the
• 36:00
  over the decades, right? That has truly been what people
• 36:05
  expected, right? It's truly been somebody who
• 36:08
  takes the program and takes to another level.
• 36:11
  There's not many head coaches in waiting that have done that.
• 36:15
  Most of them have unfortunately failed, right?
• 36:18
  So it's hard to bet on a, a head coach in waiting when just the
• 36:23
  the, the numbers themselves, the statistics lean against that.
• 36:28
  They would say that most head coaches in waiting turns out
• 36:30
  when they become the head coach are not head coaches, They're
• 36:33
  coordinators. They shouldn't be head coaches.
• 36:35
  And the whole thing fails, right?
• 36:37
  That's what happens. Look at my friggin school,
• 36:40
  Sharon Moore. I was.
• 36:41
  Just going to say, Sharon. Moore, right?
• 36:43
  Bring out Sharon Moore, right? He just got set in stage.
• 36:45
  Who he actually said deserves a chance.
• 36:47
  Because you know. And I do I, I think, I think
• 36:51
  these guys deserve a chance. So I'm not saying they don't
• 36:53
  deserve a chance, but the probability, if you look at the
• 36:56
  statistics would say most of them fail.
• 36:59
  I mean, because just most of these guys are just not head
• 37:02
  coaches, right? They are guys who are good
• 37:05
  supporting cast members who play well with the head coach.
• 37:07
  And so I don't know, I mean, I'm not saying anything bad about
• 37:11
  the guy. I don't know enough about it at
• 37:13
  this point but that I from the betting perspective that
• 37:16
  concerns me. Like I just would not bet on
• 37:19
  that 'cause I just don't have enough information to to bet on
• 37:21
  it. Yeah, I agree.
• 37:23
  I'm going to avoid them. I'll still love watching Devin
• 37:25
  Dam here, but yeah, I don't think they're getting anything.
• 37:29
  All right now, the last place where the targeting winners team
• 37:33
  went to watch a college football game in October Central.
• 37:37
  Florida. That was a really cool place to
• 37:40
  watch a game. Yeah, I enjoyed it.
• 37:42
  It was nice. We all got a nice little
• 37:43
  sunburn, but you know, you gonna do.
• 37:46
  No, I'm just saying for the people listening, right, if you
• 37:48
  want to go watch a game somewhere, that was not a bad
• 37:50
  place to watch a game. The stadium was really cool.
• 37:52
  It wasn't big, but people were really friendly.
• 37:55
  It was small enough where you felt really comfortable.
• 37:57
  It was cool. It was a good place.
• 38:00
  All right, well hard rocks got them at +5000 when the
• 38:02
  conference. FanDuel a little more confidence
• 38:04
  plus 4500 win total 5 1/2 heavily juice to the over here.
• 38:11
  If you're a FanDuel player, this just comes down to you have
• 38:17
  Alice Grinch as your defence coordinator and Scott Frost as
• 38:19
  your head coach. Can I trust them?
• 38:20
  And the answer is no. That's exactly it.
• 38:23
  Like Scott Frost is still the head coach as the head coach,
• 38:25
  right? Then no.
• 38:26
  Then then again. Then again.
• 38:29
  This is Scott Frost at a place he probably should be coaching,
• 38:33
  all right. His his other job that that he
• 38:36
  was just that was over his head, just not where he should be.
• 38:41
  This is where he should probably be coaching.
• 38:42
  This makes sense for him. So once again, I don't have
• 38:45
  enough information to know what Scott Frost does in a different
• 38:49
  place as a head coach. And I like I actually like the
• 38:54
  guy. I like Scott Frost, I like what
• 38:55
  he says. I like his approach.
• 38:57
  I like it. I don't know if it translates
• 39:00
  into wins here at UCFII, don't know.
• 39:03
  But I mean, just being there last year, I mean, this is the
• 39:07
  type of place which is not huge, which I think would make sense
• 39:12
  for Scott to be at. So I, you know, I, I tend to be
• 39:17
  slightly favorable toward not, not for a bet this time through
• 39:20
  'cause I'm just, this needs to play itself out.
• 39:22
  But I mean, longer term, could Scott be successful there?
• 39:26
  Maybe, maybe he could, maybe that's the right place for him
• 39:28
  to be. So I'm not going to beat up
• 39:30
  Scott. I think he was putting up a
• 39:32
  really terrible position before of trying to resurrect a
• 39:35
  program, his alma mater. That wasn't going to happen
• 39:38
  because the program is terrible anyway and this wasn't going to
• 39:41
  happen, right? So that was that was unfair.
• 39:43
  I think this is fair. And what is the what's the win
• 39:47
  total? 5 1/2 What's?
• 39:48
  The five and a. Half Could you go over 5 1/2
• 39:51
  here? I mean, Petun Cookman win Pitt,
• 39:55
  I don't know what Pitts. I think they're, I think Pitts.
• 39:58
  I think Pitts not going to be too bad this year.
• 40:02
  Yeah, I mean. Going to pit is always a
• 40:03
  problem, so. But look at that stretch after
• 40:05
  Georgia State, TCU at Houston at Oklahoma State, BYI mean?
• 40:08
  That's a problem. I mean, that's a problem after
• 40:11
  that Baylor lost Kansas. I don't know what they're going
• 40:14
  to do. Yeah.
• 40:15
  So I mean, the schedules for Colorado win maybe so.
• 40:17
  I don't know. I mean, it doesn't look very
• 40:19
  favorable because the schedule's not exactly playing in.
• 40:22
  But I do think like so from the bet perspective this year not
• 40:26
  touching long term, I don't know.
• 40:29
  I I'm willing to give this a shot because I think Scott could
• 40:32
  maybe do something here. So we'll see.
• 40:35
  Yeah, I mean, offensively this team has been pretty bad.
• 40:38
  Getting Alan De Barnett from James Madison can only help.
• 40:42
  So I I, I do like that defensively, they actually were
• 40:47
  pretty solid last year. But again, Alice Grinch does
• 40:51
  have that track record of not, you know, not being great for
• 40:57
  for too long. Lost a couple defensive ends.
• 41:00
  The secondary still looks really good.
• 41:02
  They're getting four of their five starters back.
• 41:04
  So like you said, there is some some things here to build on.
• 41:10
  But yeah, I mean that that middle stretch, I can see a
• 41:13
  tailspin going here where, you know, maybe they do lose at
• 41:16
  Kansas, maybe they do lose at home to Arizona State.
• 41:22
  They get, what, 3-4 wins? That would be pretty, pretty
• 41:24
  bad, all right? That'd be pretty catastrophic,
• 41:26
  yeah. I mean, like I said, you just
• 41:27
  see that four-game stretch and that game at Pittsburgh could be
• 41:30
  really bad and then you know, all you have to do is what,
• 41:34
  lose? Lose one more and you're 6.
• 41:36
  That's the issue, right? Deeply underwater.
• 41:40
  So yeah, that's that's an issue. I mean I I guess it makes sense
• 41:44
  over 5 1/2 pretty heavily juiced like -160 at FanDuel, but.
• 41:49
  I don't know where that's coming from.
• 41:50
  I would, I would definitely consider the under here, not the
• 41:52
  over. I mean, if I was going to lean
• 41:54
  anywhere, be the under, not the over.
• 41:56
  Like, where are you finding six wins here?
• 41:58
  Yeah, show me six wins. Why is that heavily juiced?
• 42:01
  I don't understand that. That's a line I don't get.
• 42:03
  No, I mean the left side. There's probably 2.
• 42:06
  And what about the right side? There might be two more.
• 42:08
  That's 4. Yeah, I mean, if they're going
• 42:09
  to get anything, it's going to be in November.
• 42:11
  It's going to be that from Halloween on they got 3/3 of.
• 42:14
  Their five game Colorado. Sure there's no state.
• 42:16
  Sure. There's two, Iowa State maybe
• 42:19
  OK, three. OK, fine.
• 42:20
  So there's there's five. I just, I don't know.
• 42:24
  I just don't. Do that with this team just
• 42:26
  because Scott Frost in Nebraska has probably scarred me for at
• 42:29
  least another three seasons. So.
• 42:30
  Oh. It's probably scarred him for
• 42:32
  the rest of his life 'cause I mean like he.
• 42:35
  Wasn't he here before? Wasn't he here before and did
• 42:38
  really well so. Yeah, we're.
• 42:40
  Against the Nebraska. That's for him, yeah.
• 42:42
  Yeah. So I don't know.
• 42:44
  Nebraska wasn't going to work. No, and it did not.
• 42:48
  All right, this is what we're all waiting for.
• 42:51
  I have to take my pants back off.
• 42:53
  I mean, do you still have your Rich Rod kool-aid IV hooked up?
• 42:57
  Because. Hell yeah, I.
• 43:00
  Do I knew you would. And it probably tastes like
• 43:03
  success. All right, listen, we love us
• 43:04
  some West Virginia on this show, They were UC FS opponent at the
• 43:08
  game we went to. We saw enough QB runs to scare
• 43:14
  anybody to not be. Yeah, All right for this.
• 43:18
  Team, but our boy Rich Rod has has flipped his whole roster
• 43:22
  again. However, he has brought in
• 43:25
  Michael Hawkins, Oklahoma transfer.
• 43:27
  He has brought in Cam Cook, a leading rusher in the NCAA last
• 43:33
  year from Jacksonville State. three-way QB battle here shaping
• 43:37
  up. I don't I don't know if you got
• 43:39
  any thoughts on Scotty Fox, Max Brown or Michael Hawkins on
• 43:41
  who's going to get this job. I was excited to bet this, but I
• 43:46
  was thinking that, you know, last week we, we kind of looked
• 43:49
  at these teams to to make our win total bets.
• 43:52
  The week before. I did not look at the win total.
• 43:55
  I was shocked when I saw 5 1/2 and I was even more shocked that
• 43:59
  it is heavily juiced to the over.
• 44:03
  But I mean, we love us some rich rod man.
• 44:05
  So I'll, I'll let you take it because this is your boy.
• 44:09
  It is indeed. I love me some Rich Rod.
• 44:12
  I I love what he brought to Michigan before he was kicked
• 44:15
  out the door. I think he's a really good
• 44:18
  coach. I think he brings.
• 44:20
  The thing with him is he doesn't need elite talent.
• 44:23
  The way he runs his offense and such is just a system and he
• 44:26
  just finds players to fit the system.
• 44:28
  So last year when we went and saw him, he did not have players
• 44:31
  to fit his system. He was just making it work
• 44:33
  because he just got there. So fine, right?
• 44:36
  It was, yeah. The quarterback runs are great.
• 44:39
  And I mean, it was it was concerning because they just
• 44:41
  didn't have the players. To me, it's like a Rich Rod year
• 44:44
  three. Thing is, a is a really good
• 44:47
  place to be because it gives them enough time to build out
• 44:49
  those players. Players love playing for this
• 44:52
  guy seems like a really good dude on all respects.
• 44:56
  I mean, 5 1/2 to me, if you look at this schedule is very, very
• 45:03
  doable. I think this team is going to
• 45:05
  over over produce. I think they're going to be
• 45:08
  better than people think they're going to be.
• 45:10
  No, they're probably not going to win the conference.
• 45:13
  They're not there yet. The defense is going to be a
• 45:16
  problem. I think that's that's going to
• 45:18
  be an issue. I do think the offense to to
• 45:21
  your to your quarterback question it, it almost doesn't
• 45:24
  matter, right? With Rich Rod's offense, it
• 45:28
  almost doesn't matter as long as the quarterback is kind of
• 45:31
  following his structure and can do what the quarterback needs to
• 45:35
  do in his system, right? Rich Rod's system doesn't need a
• 45:38
  superstar quarterback. As a matter of fact, I think
• 45:40
  he's kind of anti superstar quarterback, right?
• 45:43
  It's somebody that fits the system that does what he needs
• 45:45
  them to do. And I think out of those three
• 45:47
  players, I think they're going to find somebody who who will do
• 45:50
  what he needs them to do. Look at the schedule, right
• 45:53
  Coastal when UT when Virginia, Charlotte, maybe a maybe a win.
• 45:58
  I don't know. Oklahoma State's going to be a
• 46:00
  challenge and it's a good team. Iowa State, maybe Cincinnati win
• 46:06
  at TCUI, don't know. T we talked about TCU being
• 46:09
  good. So but by that point in the
• 46:11
  season, maybe, maybe West Virginia's better.
• 46:13
  So that could be competitive. Forget November 7th at Texas
• 46:17
  Tech, that ain't going to happen.
• 46:19
  But Kansas, Houston at Utah is probably an issue.
• 46:23
  But there's enough winnable games here, especially early,
• 46:29
  because I think this team's going to take some time to gel.
• 46:32
  It's going to take some time to get there.
• 46:34
  So the fact that their schedule other than Oklahoma State, which
• 46:37
  they're going to lose to, they're going to lose
• 46:38
  regardless, right? So just call that an L, right?
• 46:41
  Outside of that, I think the rest of those games are
• 46:43
  potentially winnable, which is interesting because by the time
• 46:48
  you get to the second-half, the team should be clicking a little
• 46:51
  more. I do think you're going to find
• 46:54
  some opportunity there. So this is a bet for me.
• 46:58
  I'm West Virginia over 5 1/2. I do feel very comfortable with
• 47:03
  this team over 5 1/2 here. Just looking at risk for Rich
• 47:07
  Rod's history and what he's done with.
• 47:09
  He's just one of those coaches that I don't want to call it
• 47:12
  inferior talent, but like that second tier talent, he's one of
• 47:17
  those coaches that gets a lot of a lot out of second tier talent.
• 47:21
  Like he doesn't need 5 stars. He doesn't need, he doesn't need
• 47:25
  that. And, and I think that with his
• 47:28
  history here, coming back here, I think he can draw enough 2nd
• 47:33
  and 3rd tier talent to run his system where this is just a
• 47:38
  dangerous team and they will be a dangerous team going forward.
• 47:41
  You don't want to go into West Virginia and play this team, and
• 47:44
  this team is quite can be quite dangerous.
• 47:46
  So love this bet, love the over. Don't care about the Jews in
• 47:51
  this case 'cause I love the over all day long.
• 47:54
  But then again, Darren found me some really good juice on
• 47:56
  DraftKings today, so from from that perspective.
• 47:59
  I just looked, it is still plus 100 at 5 1/2 'cause.
• 48:03
  That's insane, really. Where do you see that?
• 48:05
  I'm like DraftKings baby? He's like, what?
• 48:08
  I was looking at on FanDuel and other places was way worse than
• 48:11
  that. That plus 100 is an insane
• 48:13
  number. If you get +100 on this team
• 48:17
  over 5 1/2, you should take it and run because I feel very
• 48:21
  confident they're going to be 6, seven wins.
• 48:23
  I'm looking at DraftKings right now over 4 1/2 -. 245 / 5 1/2 +
• 48:28
  100. If you really love them over 6
• 48:31
  1/2, you can get plus 210 right now as we speak.
• 48:35
  Wow. I mean, that's, that's really
• 48:37
  intriguing, to be honest. I mean, I don't know if I love
• 48:40
  them that is quite that much, but maybe maybe I do.
• 48:43
  I mean, this is, this is a team that I expect something.
• 48:48
  That much. But I do love me some Cam Cook.
• 48:51
  I was telling you before we started that dude could steal a
• 48:53
  game or two on his own. And like you were talking about,
• 48:57
  it might not matter who the quarterback is.
• 48:58
  I could see Sarah Rich Rod's got, you know, because he he ran
• 49:01
  that seriously up tempo offense at Jacksonville State.
• 49:04
  He could have packages for both Scotty Fox and William Hoggins.
• 49:07
  He'll run two or three quarterbacks through.
• 49:09
  Just keep like cycling through, right?
• 49:10
  He'll do that. He doesn't care.
• 49:12
  As long as you can turn around and hand the ball off to Cam
• 49:15
  Cook, you know, you should be fine.
• 49:17
  But like, I can see them keeping up with Oklahoma State.
• 49:21
  I can see them beating Cincinnati.
• 49:24
  I can see them beating Kansas. I mean, they're there's I, you
• 49:28
  know, it's feels weird to say, but that Virginia game could be
• 49:32
  could be the one that determines it.
• 49:33
  Could it? Could be interesting.
• 49:35
  It could be a really good game, yeah.
• 49:37
  No, that should be a great game. Yeah.
• 49:39
  But yeah, I see. Like I said, I saw that 5 1/2
• 49:42
  like the day after we had recorded last week.
• 49:45
  So I had my notes on West Virginia.
• 49:46
  I'm like, oh, Rich Rod's doing Rich Rod things.
• 49:48
  I'm like, I think it was only like 3 1/2 last year.
• 49:51
  I'm like, dude, give me 3 1/2, even 4 1/2.
• 49:54
  I am pounding the over and I saw 5 1/2 and I'm like, all right,
• 49:57
  no bet. That's way higher than I
• 50:00
  thought. But yeah, I mean, you, you
• 50:03
  cannot doubt Rich Rod. He's one of the coaches in this
• 50:05
  conference that I would trust along with maybe Kenny dealing
• 50:07
  and maybe like one or two other guys.
• 50:09
  Yeah. Sure, there's a couple others.
• 50:10
  Sure. All right, so Tim and you both
• 50:13
  got a little DraftKings. I got Tim's bed in for him
• 50:16
  today. Over 5 1/2 + 100 still available
• 50:19
  as we are sitting here recording.
• 50:20
  So if you agree with beating Tim, get to DK, get that locked
• 50:23
  in. All right, man, it is.
• 50:26
  And it's a bit like Fanduel's like -154 a couple days.
• 50:30
  Ago for that spread between those two is incredibly big,
• 50:33
  right? Like what?
• 50:35
  What are they looking? That's why we try to shop
• 50:36
  around, man, especially in the futures market, you get some
• 50:39
  crazy numbers. All right, man, let me.
• 50:42
  Like, yeah, sorry, I'm just like just saying from like the
• 50:44
  bankroll management and just betting and all that, like this
• 50:48
  online betting thing has changed a lot of things.
• 50:50
  Like, Vegas used to be so aligned with this stuff.
• 50:52
  You wouldn't see gaps like this very often.
• 50:55
  Seeing a gap like this would speak to, I mean, I'm a finance
• 50:59
  guy, right? Seeing a gap like this would
• 51:00
  speak to what the Hell's going on here?
• 51:03
  Like, there is clearly a massive disconnect.
• 51:07
  How do I read it? What do I do with it?
• 51:09
  That's intriguing. That's very intriguing with
• 51:11
  this. Yeah.
• 51:12
  I mean, a month ago when we did the national championship show,
• 51:15
  DraftKings had BYU at 70 to one bet, MGM had 80 to 1 was a
• 51:22
  FanDuel where I think I made that bet, had 125 to one.
• 51:25
  Yeah, I'm playing that at FanDuel.
• 51:27
  That's insane. So yeah, definitely shop around,
• 51:32
  especially in regards to the future spark, because like Pete
• 51:34
  said, you're going to get some crazy variances in these numbers
• 51:38
  for sure. All right, well, let's wrap it
• 51:39
  up. If you want any of our picks
• 51:41
  from the first eight teams, check out our video that we put
• 51:43
  out last week. We we gave out five bets there
• 51:47
  last week so. 5 yes. Yeah.
• 51:49
  So 8 bets in this conference, that's pretty good.
• 51:52
  I just want to say that one gentleman who was listening and
• 51:54
  left us a review on Apple Podcast saying we'd love to see
• 51:56
  more bets. I hope you're listening, buddy.
• 52:00
  I made 8 bets all of last year. I have 6 already and we're one
• 52:03
  conference in SO. Yeah, if you're listening right
• 52:06
  now, Bridge Rod, West Virginia over 5 1/2 at +100 DraftKings.
• 52:12
  You should jump on that all day long the same.
• 52:15
  All right, well, Tim, and you are on that there.
• 52:17
  West Virginia over 5 1/2 and plus 100.
• 52:21
  I have got Kansas under 5 1/2. No, Jan Daniels needs me to
• 52:27
  believe no bowl game. And again, that plus 145 is that
• 52:30
  drafting well, by far the best number there.
• 52:33
  So Pete, any final thoughts? No, I'm excited.
• 52:37
  So that's the Big 12 wrapping it up.
• 52:39
  Some really interesting conferences.
• 52:41
  We said right from day one, this is an intriguing conference.
• 52:44
  There's a lot of like things going on here.
• 52:46
  So good luck. I wish you the best man.
• 52:49
  Thanks for checking us out, guys.
• 52:51
  Again, like subscribe, we're on YouTube, we're on Spotify, we're
• 52:54
  on iheart, we're all over the place.
• 52:56
  Tell your friends, give us a listen.
• 52:58
  There's going to be conference previews all the way right up
• 53:01
  till the end of August. When we get into week 0, it'll
• 53:03
  be here before you know it. Alright, thanks a lot guys.
• 53:06
  We'll be back in a couple weeks with another conference preview
• 53:09
  yet to be determined, but we will see you soon.
• 53:12
  Thanks a lot guys, have a good one.