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The economic consequences of the Iran conflict · Cultural Wars | America Out Loud News

• 0:15
  Welcome to another episode of Trivel Out Reports on America Out Loud.
• 0:20
  We're here today with Jeff Nyquist.
• 0:23
  Whenever I have trouble making understanding the complexities of international events, and there's lots of them going on right now, everything from Cuba to Iran to South Korea to obviously Ukraine, um, President Trump, um, his behavior, let you know.
• 0:43
  I I I go to Jeff, because Jeff's always a voice of reason.
• 0:46
  He's uh he's a uh an author, a public speaker.
• 0:50
  Uh most of all, it's a historian and a student of geopolitics.
• 0:56
  There's not much about history, military history and uh political history that Jeff's not aware of, and he follows it not just in America, but all around the world.
• 1:05
  So thanks very much, Jeff, for coming on.
• 1:09
  Appreciate it.
• 1:10
  Thanks for having me.
• 1:11
  It's always a pleasure, always always illuminating.
• 1:16
  So I thought we'd like just if it's okay with you, talk a little bit about Iran for a start briefly.
• 1:23
  So President Trump with this hostilities have paused for a while now, and you hear reports that President Trump's trying to open the Straits of Homo's, and you know, that hostilities could resume at any minute, and then he was talking about regime change, and now he's talking about Iran's taking a deal.
• 1:44
  Well, where is it all with you?
• 1:47
  Where where what's your understanding?
• 1:49
  Is there any real strategic plan here, or is this just fly by the seat of my set of the pants stuff?
• 1:56
  Oh, there doesn't seem to be any strategy here.
• 1:58
  Um it it seems rather clear that Trump did not fully listen to his advisors when it came to going to war against Iran, and he went in without really having um uh solutions to the to some of the problems of of going into this war.
• 2:18
  There was the assumption, I think, at the beginning that Iran was just going to collapse, that it was an unpopular regime, that uh decapitating it would result in a revolution and a change, and that did not happen.
• 2:29
  Regime change.
• 2:31
  I think that might have happened had had Trump followed through after the um the 12-day war after the bombing of the nuclear facilities, the Iranian people did rise up and there was no help, even though Trump said it was coming, and 40,000, 30,000 were killed.
• 2:48
  And I think they're a bit gun shy.
• 2:51
  What do you think?
• 2:52
  Well, that was in in January.
• 2:53
  Remember when the uprisings happened.
• 2:56
  Uh the 12-day war was back in June.
• 2:58
  And uh, sorry, yeah.
• 3:00
  I think I think the January uh protests in Iran, which ended in bloody massacres of people and more than 40,000 being jailed under, you know, uh supposed death sentence.
• 3:12
  Uh, we don't know the exact numbers, but the regime uh really showed its ruthlessness.
• 3:18
  They imported foreign troops to help them put it down because they didn't want uh to risk Iranian troops being ordered and then turning on their own officers.
• 3:27
  So they they really showed a lot of um care in the way they put down that those protests.
• 3:34
  Now the war has begun.
• 3:36
  Uh, the perception of the regime being weak is no longer in the equation.
• 3:41
  And uh having uh killed the older senior leaders, younger leaders have taken over.
• 3:47
  And now, of course, it just came out of Israel.
• 3:50
  I don't know if the report is true.
• 3:51
  Here we're broadcasting on Thursday afternoon that um an American destroyer has been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz by the Iranians.
• 4:00
  We have no confirmation of that from the US Navy.
• 4:03
  Um, but they have you know, there's mixed reports about escorting some ships through the strait.
• 4:09
  But again, the insurance companies, they're not gonna take the risk.
• 4:14
  Uh they need to be absolutely assured that it's safe for these very large expensive oil tankers to go through there.
• 4:21
  These are very vulnerable to drone and missile strikes, and these are these are huge, huge carriers.
• 4:28
  And um, the Iranians still, we they the United States has not destroyed the Swift boats that can la you know come out from cubby holes and in hidden uh caves and bunkers along the coast to attack ships along that narrow waterway.
• 4:45
  Drones can it come through those mountains uh undetected by radar and suddenly strike, you have very little warning time for the ships.
• 4:53
  I know the U.S.
• 4:54
  Navy is is you know working on anti-drone technology, anti-drone measures to help make it safe for ships to go through, but you know, insurance companies, they they need to be able to rate this.
• 5:08
  And um, they nobody has an any real idea how much protection the US Navy can give to escorting ships in the U.S.
• 5:16
  Navy, given what uh 130 or 40 ships, tankers transiting the strait every day.
• 5:22
  Um can they really protect that many ships?
• 5:26
  Um it's uh we don't know the answers to that question.
• 5:31
  And it seems to me Trump, I I think we've got hints to what the answer is.
• 5:36
  Uh, because I I talked to an investment guy last week, and he said the market's definitely going to crash, U.S.
• 5:42
  stock market, and of course, um, oil is going to go over 200 a barrel, as this plays out, because the people who are analyzing it now are coming to the understanding that this isn't going to be resolved soon.
• 5:57
  And the longer it drags out, we we the oil reserves for the world is like a hundred-day reserve, right?
• 6:04
  So what we're on uh I don't know when exactly the oil stopped, but uh you know, we're looking at 60 days at least, right?
• 6:12
  So we're more than halfway through that a hundred days.
• 6:15
  Uh and uh maybe we've got 40 more days.
• 6:19
  When you hit this point, and 40 days, that's you know, that's only you know seven weeks away, uh, less than seven weeks away.
• 6:29
  Um, you know, closer to six weeks away.
• 6:32
  Um you hit that point, that's when suddenly you're gonna have gasoline shortages in California.
• 6:39
  You're gonna have gas.
• 6:40
  Look, diesel in California.
• 6:42
  Uh I saw a diesel in my old hometown in California, 775 a gallon for diesel.
• 6:49
  Oh think about that.
• 6:54
  Oh, yeah, and farmers.
• 6:55
  I have a farmer friend.
• 6:56
  He was telling me last week, look, diesel went up overnight a dollar a gallon.
• 7:00
  A gallon, he said he said it he uses 35,000 gallons of diesel every week.
• 7:00
  He said he said it he uses 35,000 gallons of diesel every week.
• 7:06
  That's the $35,000 a year hit for him just for it going up one dollar.
• 7:06
  That's the 35,000 dollar a year hit for him just for it going up one dollar, and of course, it's gone up more than that.
• 7:11
  And of course, it's gone up more than that.
• 7:13
  $35,000 a year, gallons a year or a week.
• 7:13
  35,000 a year, uh year or a week.
• 7:17
  35,000 gallons a year.
• 7:17
  $35,000 gallons a year.
• 7:18
  Yes, sorry, yeah.
• 7:18
  Yes, sorry, yeah.
• 7:20
  But it's but it's it's that's 35,000 a year more just to go up a dollar a gallon.
• 7:20
  But it's but it's it's that's $35,000 a year more just to go up a dollar a gallon.
• 7:26
  And of course, it's gone up more than that, it's going to go up more than that.
• 7:26
  And of course, it's gone up more than that, it's going to go up more than that.
• 7:30
  And of course, if you've got it, a truck brought it.
• 7:32
  So all of these uh big uh transport trucks on our highways, they're running on diesel.
• 7:39
  And this is really the shortage in diesel.
• 7:41
  This is a serious thing for us.
• 7:43
  The idea that we're not affected by this, and and it's just not true.
• 7:48
  And of course, Trump then made a statement.
• 7:52
  So I'm talking to this fellow, he's a he's an investor, he knows the markets, he's been around for many for decades here, made a lot of money, made a lot of money for his clients.
• 8:02
  He's saying, look, it's gonna go over, you know, if this continues, and people think it will probably continue.
• 8:09
  I think it's going to continue.
• 8:10
  It's going to be two over 200 a gallon.
• 8:13
  Uh I mean a barrel for oil.
• 8:16
  And and when you reach to that point, uh, it is catastrophic.
• 8:20
  And President Trump, then, just to to sort of this is the confirmation that this really is possible.
• 8:26
  He said, Well, there's nothing really wrong with you know, uh oil being over 200 uh dollars a barrel.
• 8:34
  That's sort of an indication.
• 8:35
  Somebody told the president it's headed that way, and he knows he can't solve this thing, and so this is what he's saying, right?
• 8:42
  He's putting a spin on that, yeah.
• 8:46
  You know, uh might not be much of an impact on him, but it will be for virtually everybody else in America.
• 8:53
  So when the midterms come, it will be an impact on him for sure.
• 8:58
  Well, yes, so so and and this guy is is ranking the stock market's gonna crash just because of the so much stress in the system, and this will just tip it over the edge, basically.
• 9:09
  Yeah, there's a lot of debt in the system, and of course, uh the investment money is drying up because all this money is being sucked into paying these higher prices, energy prices, which is affecting all businesses.
• 9:20
  And of course, this is this is sucking the pool of available money uh drier and drier.
• 9:25
  It's it's already caused friends of mine in the investment community projects that they were looking forward to doing.
• 9:31
  The money's not there now.
• 9:32
  So we're we are headed for a global recession, and it it could be a depression.
• 9:39
  Uh, because energy is the price of energy is sort of an absolute cost imposed on all of us across the board on all uh commodities and all prices, all uh goods that we buy and sell, and uh and and of course, even services, you know.
• 9:56
  Uh if you get in a taxi, if you ride a bus, if you take it airplane trip, you are you're paying fuel cost, and it's so bad in Europe, they're canceling flights.
• 10:07
  I think there might not be any some of these airlines are are giving up all together for now because the fuel cost is is prohibitive.
• 10:16
  Well, we just saw spurt go belly up here.
• 10:20
  And um, I think spirit was always on the edge, but but you know, this is just maybe tip them over the edge.
• 10:27
  Yeah, yeah.
• 10:28
  And and so it's uh see, this is what the the Iranian this is better than the atomic bomb for the Iranian leadership.
• 10:35
  They're inflicting a major defeat on Trump personally because he's to blame, he's gonna be blamed, and he's inflicting a defeat on the United States because we can't provide freedom of the seas for the Strait of Hormuz.
• 10:47
  So the U.S.
• 10:48
  Navy takes a black eye.
• 10:50
  This uh damages the petrodoll, damages the U.S.
• 10:53
  economy, damages our allies' economies, and of course, it helps Russia because Russia now even though the Ukrainians are blocking Russian oil exports in the Black Sea and the Baltic by doing their own drone strikes, Russia's gonna get oil out through the Arctic during the summer and through the Pacific as much as they can.
• 11:12
  And and so it's it's uh it's it's that high price is gonna help the Russians.
• 11:18
  Um, of course, Russia's got its own problems because it's not doing very well in the war with Ukraine.
• 11:25
  You've probably seen the spate between Zelensky and Trump over cease fire for the victory parade in Moscow on May 9th, which is coming up here in two days.
• 11:35
  No, I didn't say Trump way into that, did he?
• 11:40
  No, Trump way into that debate.
• 11:42
  Like uh the Russians proposed uh a ceasefire, then Zelensky proposed one earlier.
• 11:49
  Then uh you know, the Russians are freaking out because if they put all the air defenses around Moscow, that leaves a whole bunch of other places vulnerable to be hit, and now the Russians are calling for a full a full ceasefire.
• 12:03
  Did Trump um comment on that?
• 12:05
  Did he?
• 12:06
  Well, Trump has as you know, has made the made comments that the fault lies with the Ukrainians for not making peace.
• 12:13
  He's gone back to that kind of statement.
• 12:15
  Um, you know, it seems that Trump is again the people around him, the influences that he's under, or his ideas, he's just not well informed, and he doesn't finish things, and he's lazy.
• 12:28
  We know this about him, and so he hasn't bothered to learn the facts of the truth of the matter, and he's got this tendency to be influenced by people.
• 12:37
  Maybe it's vice president Vance, uh, whose uh views on this.
• 12:41
  I really uh fear the worst.
• 12:44
  Um that they are uh basically um you know pro-Russian, that they don't see the Ukrainians as as friends and allies who need to be helped.
• 12:57
  Yeah, we'll let JD Vance make snowbones about that, and he's he's hanging around with the people like Curtis Javin and and others who are absolutely pro-Russian and are absolutely in the like following the put the the Dugan line, the Russian uh military intelligence line.
• 13:16
  So that so what should Trump do?
• 13:19
  Like this talks about occupying carg island to starve the Iranians of all oil revenue or 90 percent of the oil revenue.
• 13:28
  Do you see this as a possibility?
• 13:30
  Is that is that where this is going?
• 13:32
  Well, the the block the blockade that Trump has imposed on the Iranian coast is is effective.
• 13:38
  They can prevent if they can prevent Chinese if they are really doing that.
• 13:42
  Some some reports say that we're letting the Chinese get through with Iranian oil.
• 13:47
  If we really are serious about the blockade, then we are stopping that oil.
• 13:53
  Um, and I you know, seeing mixed reports, I I'm not sure what to believe, but if they occupied Carg Island, it would be the same thing.
• 14:00
  Be the same thing.
• 14:00
  A fenched uh uh basically you can cut off the oil shipments at the strait, or you can occupy that island.
• 14:00
  A fenched uh uh basically you can cut off the oil shipments at the strait, or you can occupy that island.
• 14:08
  Um, I suppose occupying the island gives you additional leverage that they then have to ask for it back that you could keep hold of it.
• 14:08
  Um, I suppose occupying the island gives you additional leverage that they then have to ask for it back, that you could keep hold of it.
• 14:17
  But um so far, it's it's just like you know, uh maybe some of the listeners don't know that what uh what has happened with drones in the Ukraine war, the Ukrainians have developed really long range drones.
• 14:17
  But um so far, it's it's just like you know, uh maybe some of the listeners don't know that what uh what has happened with drones in the Ukraine war, the Ukrainians have developed really long range drones.
• 14:30
  Russia has even declared uh St.
• 14:33
  Petersburg, a frontline zone, because uh uh Ukrainian drones have reached the ports around St.
• 14:41
  Petersburg and have just destroyed, demolished the oil storage and and port facilities for exporting oil out of out of the Gulf of Finland.
• 14:52
  Yeah, going into a thousand miles into Finland into Russia now.
• 14:56
  Yeah, actually, 1700 miles.
• 14:59
  They they hit a thousand kilometers away, they hit um at Katherinburg the other day.
• 15:06
  Uh they have hit into the Urals, which I think uh is is getting close to 1700 miles.
• 15:11
  I think the Russians have said that they expect to be hit as deep as 2500 kilometers into their territory, which takes us, you know, I think a little bit past the Urals.
• 15:21
  So the Ukrainian ability to hit is extending as they develop more longer range drones, and of course, they've got their flamingo missiles and also the um the Neptune missiles that they have um modified, the anti-ship missiles they've turned into surface to surface missiles.
• 15:40
  Um Australia technology is also making it hard for the Americans in Iran, isn't it?
• 15:45
  Because yeah, yeah, it's the same lesson.
• 15:48
  I mean, the Polish Army now is announcing they want to increase to 500,000 men, and they want to train, I think it was 300,000 of them in drone warfare.
• 15:57
  So they're really going the Pentagon now is taking it seriously, they're committing billions now rather than millions to drone warfare.
• 16:04
  And it's about time.
• 16:05
  This is very tardy, but they've finally realized it.
• 16:08
  I mean, I mean, we've known for years the Ukrainians were turning the tide in that war with drones.
• 16:14
  Uh, this has become so important because think about it, Trevor.
• 16:19
  Drones can go behind their lines, uh, find the supply trucks that are bringing the ammunition to the artillery, attack the ammunition dumps, attack all kinds of logistics, attack headquarters, kill generals.
• 16:32
  Uh, the ability of this new weapon to disrupt your communications and your logistics is profound.
• 16:41
  And this is what the Iranians are doing now.
• 16:44
  Imagine had the Nazis had drones in World War II when the Allies were advancing on Germany.
• 16:50
  It might have been a different outcome, mightn't it?
• 16:53
  Oh, yeah.
• 16:54
  I mean, you know, the they were uh they were experimenting with uh the V2 rocket, the missile weapon at the time, but they they were so inaccurate, all they could do is aim at London and maybe hit some building in London.
• 17:07
  Uh and that was all they could do, and it was very expensive for them.
• 17:11
  But now you look at the missile systems, the Iranians have at the beginning of the war, they were thought to have 80,000 drones and missiles in storage.
• 17:22
  And now the Pentagon has admitted that um they haven't destroyed 90 percent or whatever of the Iranian uh stockpile of missiles and drones, that they still have tens of thousands of missiles and drones in bunkers and storage.
• 17:37
  That's that's frightening.
• 17:39
  Yeah, how do you see there is uh it makes me think there is no real military solution here?
• 17:46
  There is only well, a military and uh and an attack situation, there is only fully enforced sanctions, which must also extend to Russia and China.
• 17:57
  That is the only way to bring down the Iranian regime that I can see.
• 18:02
  Well, and this is where some people, and there are people in Moscow and in Beijing uh giving voice to this, and some of the smarter heads in the West are saying, look, we are approaching World War III here because Iran, Russia, and China are allied.
• 18:19
  They work together in North Korea, along with their allies in Latin America and Africa.
• 18:25
  This is an extensive, this is what we used to call the communist bloc, or they used to call it the socialist camp in the Russian military writings of the 1960s and 70s.
• 18:35
  Um, this this group of nations, it exists, and they have their own economic wherewithal.
• 18:41
  Uh, the the KGB defector, Anatoli Galitzini said, beware the economic weapons of the block, uh, grain and oil.
• 18:49
  And this is what's coming into play here because related to the oil being cut off and the markets and the all the forget all the financial effects.
• 18:58
  Think about the effects on farms.
• 19:00
  I just mentioned the farmer, he's got an extra 35,000 price tag for his crop this year, uh, just from one night of price increases from this war on diesel.
• 19:11
  But think about the price increases in fertilizer.
• 19:15
  Many farmers are not planting their first crop.
• 19:18
  Many will not plant their second crop because the price of fertilizer is too high for them.
• 19:24
  And so what does that mean?
• 19:26
  And then it's really bad in the third world.
• 19:28
  You see, many of these African countries have been getting, especially on the Indian Ocean side of Africa, getting their oil from the Middle East.
• 19:35
  They're not getting their oil, they're having gasoline and diesel shortages.
• 19:39
  What happens to their agriculture?
• 19:42
  Uh there is great fear here that we are looking at a loss in global food production because of this closing of the strait, because so much of the arable land, what we've done is we've overfarmed because of the the huge increase in the world population.
• 20:01
  And in and the we we have we can't rest the soil.
• 20:04
  So we we use these petrochemicals, uh fertilizers that come from oil, uh, basically from uh, you know, you and that's how we get the crop yields.
• 20:17
  That's how we we feed people.
• 20:18
  We're keeping feeding people.
• 20:20
  Now, if this is not uh available, uh, how much yield and and how much loss of yield are we going to experience this summer?
• 20:31
  And and what kind of shortfall in food production is there going to be for 8 billion people worldwide?
• 20:40
  Yes, cheery thought, isn't it?
• 20:43
  It is of starving Africans trying to flood into Europe.
• 20:48
  Yeah, that that and it can really cause a problem.
• 20:52
  Plus, we've got this thing where the rains, the spring rains are getting to be larger in certain regions than normal.
• 21:00
  We see other regions are drying out.
• 21:00
  We see other regions are drying out.
• 21:02
  It's the effect of the grand solar minimum.
• 21:02
  It's the the effect of the grand solar minimum.
• 21:05
  People have denied it the good the global warming.
• 21:05
  People have denied it the good the global warming.
• 21:08
  Uh, you know, believe the science, uh that no, the planet's getting hotter.
• 21:08
  You know, believe the science.
• 21:10
  Uh no, the planet's getting hotter.
• 21:12
  Uh no, that's not what the data is showing.
• 21:12
  Uh no, that's not what the data is showing.
• 21:15
  And people like Valentina Zarkova, they're in the UK, uh, solar scientists is saying, look, we entered a grand solar minimum in 2020.
• 21:15
  And people like Valentina Zarkova, there in the UK, uh, solar scientists is saying, look, we entered a grand solar minimum in 2020.
• 21:24
  Uh now in the middle of the the 25th solar cycle, uh the
• 21:24
  Uh now in the middle of the the 25th solar cycle, uh the heat sink, uh, all the heat that has been absorbed by the oceans from having warmer than average temperatures the last four decades is now that heat has been released.
• 21:39
  Now we're going to get cooling.
• 21:41
  Now we're going to get more cloudy days, more precipitation, and it's going to affect the growth of crops.
• 21:49
  That's going to also start affecting the food supply at the same time.
• 21:53
  Like we've got double danger here.
• 21:56
  Um I have uh, you know, I I have been a skeptic of this global warming hypothesis because, you know, I I was educated in philosophy of science in graduate school, and and it doesn't seem to be having been properly vetted as a scientific theory.
• 22:15
  They act like it's proven like it's true.
• 22:17
  And in reality, when you look at it, it seems that uh it's really warming that causes the CO2 to go up.
• 22:27
  That uh we're just a little tiny uh critter on the planet that our effect on the environment is very minimal, that the real effects are caused by the sun.
• 22:37
  The sun heats up the planet, it has its own cycle where it's hotter at times and cooler at other times.
• 22:42
  But what's really big, and this is Heinrich Svensmark's work, the Danish uh uh scientist has discovered that it's the the sun's electromagnetic field weakens during grand solar minimums.
• 22:56
  That allows more cosmic rays, which creates more clouds, more rainy weather, more water is turned into cloud vapor, and you get more rain.
• 23:07
  And a cloudy day is cooler than a sunny day, that's cooling the planet.
• 23:11
  And also all that cloud cover reflects more of the heat and light from the sun.
• 23:15
  He's written uh some books on this, and man, has he been attacked by the global warming fanatics?
• 23:21
  Uh, but it's good science.
• 23:22
  The Swiss have confirmed his findings in their experiments.
• 23:26
  So I think this is a real thing.
• 23:29
  And it, I think the Russians and Chinese know about it.
• 23:32
  And I think that's one of the reasons the Russians wanted to bring Ukraine back into the Soviet Union because it is a major agricultural uh territory.
• 23:43
  They grow a lot of food there.
• 23:45
  And um, yeah.
• 23:47
  And that could have helped to feed the Russians and the Chinese.
• 23:51
  Yeah, during this period that's coming.
• 23:52
  Yeah.
• 23:53
  I mean, right now they're they're making greenhouses in Central Asia.
• 23:56
  They're trying to, there's evidence they know about it, and they're trying to find ways to increase crop yields.
• 24:02
  Because Russia, remember, during the warmer period, Russia has had harvests bigger than Europe's, and Europe's has had harvests bigger than America.
• 24:10
  America used to be back when it was cold back in the 1960s, we had the largest grain harvests.
• 24:16
  Now it's reversed because Russia has all this land, but it's very far north.
• 24:20
  If if Russia was in in North America, it would be on Hudson's Bay.
• 24:24
  That's how far north it is.
• 24:26
  It's a very far north territory.
• 24:28
  And of course, with the warming of the climate, uh, with a hotter sun, the sun putting out more heat from the 80s on, uh, they've been able to have really good crop yields.
• 24:39
  But just think, we're going back now to the way it was in the 1960s, and it's going to get worse.
• 24:45
  According to Valentina Zarkova, she says this is going to be the harshest grand solar minimum since of this interglacial period for 10,000 years, 11,000 years, which means it's going to get very cold.
• 25:00
  She says it's only going to last uh from 2020 to around um 2050.
• 25:07
  So it's only going to last about 30 years.
• 25:09
  But she says it's going to be very severe in the 2030s, the temperatures.
• 25:14
  I mean, and already, I mean, look, they we had a foot of snow on my driveway here in South Carolina last winter, and everybody shaking their head going, that doesn't happen here, you know, we don't get that.
• 25:24
  Well, you know, we've seen the worst winters and uh and years, you know, in Michigan and and uh New York and this sort of thing.
• 25:33
  But there's nothing.
• 25:35
  Yeah, and when I was in Canada, I sp in December, I spoke at the uh Canadian Military Institute in Toronto, and they said, Oh, it's really come early this year.
• 25:45
  It was snowing there when I was there in in December, first half of December, and they say, well, this is colder than we've had.
• 25:52
  I think we're gonna see uh more of that.
• 25:55
  I I because uh this is what she's predicted, and it's happening, and I think that the science is good uh by Valentina Zarkova and Heinrich Svenzmark.
• 26:05
  Uh so you put that on top of these wars.
• 26:08
  And if you look, look, and um at the end of the Bronze Age in the second millennium BC, all the major empires were wiped out by a kind of some kind of climate event.
• 26:21
  Um, there was a huge volcanic eruption, maybe around 1700 BC, um in the Aegean that wiped out the um the Minoan civilization uh at that time.
• 26:36
  And I think it it it is one of was one of the largest volcanic events, those events, lower temperatures, global temperatures.
• 26:44
  So they had the eruption of the sea peoples, and there must have been food shortages for the kind of migrations they had then.
• 26:50
  Only Egypt survived and barely survived that episode.
• 26:55
  Um, and so we know that when there's shortages of food, people they move.
• 27:01
  They move from the region where they're not, they know they're not gonna eat, or there's political crisis because of the shortages of food, and there's these big changes.
• 27:11
  Uh, we also know maybe at the time of the fall of the Roman Empire, when all these tribes, when you had these uh Eurasian tribes like uh the Huns coming into Europe, and you had these Germanic tribes moving into the Roman Empire, they were escaping from what?
• 27:27
  There was there was hunger.
• 27:29
  There was tribes pushing on tribes looking for you know food supply.
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• 31:21
  Welcome back to uh welcome back to uh Trip Lab Reports and look at loud.
• 31:27
  So Jeff's painting a scenario that's um climate change, um, real climate change driven by the sun and driven by solar events, etc.
• 31:38
  Volcanoes, um, can have a dramatic effect, not just on the climate, but also geopolitics, and that we are heading into a period of global cooling, which is going to put huge pressure on the existing food supplies in many, many countries.
• 31:54
  So, and then we've got the political instability of a debt-ridden America, a China that's in major economic problems and wants to expand communism, a neo-communist Russia.
• 32:10
  Um, all of these things are coming together.
• 32:12
  Doesn't look like it's gonna be an easy time ahead, does it?
• 32:17
  No.
• 32:18
  And this goes to you know, cycle theory and uh the theory of the circulation of elites that we have gotten soft.
• 32:26
  We've got uh elites that are kind of rotten and spoiled and not honest, and we don't have very good management of things.
• 32:36
  We have an intellectual decline.
• 32:39
  I think it's rather pronounced.
• 32:40
  People believe things and accept things that are just very badly done and slovenly.
• 32:47
  And uh we we see this everywhere, the slavenliness.
• 32:50
  But it's affected, you know, we've got moral idiocy on the rise, people doing things that aren't really good, they're very bad, they're stupid, they're self-destructive, they're destructive of other people.
• 33:02
  We we've had a growth in this.
• 33:04
  And in fact, they've yeah.
• 33:07
  Well, you see online, one good example of this is a massive rise in anti anti-Semitism and anti-Israel stuff.
• 33:14
  And I see people on Facebook just saying things like, yeah, we need to kill all the Jews.
• 33:20
  Yeah, yeah, you know, that's like like this is this is sort of somehow an acceptable type of thing.
• 33:27
  And we know this has been driven by the Russians, but the stupidity level of people who wouldn't have even thought about Israel five years ago and now rabbit anti anti-Semites shows you how deeply they're or shallowly they are grounded, does it not?
• 33:44
  Uh, it is uh, you know, there's this book by Matthias Desmet called The Psychology of Totalitarianism, and he's basing a lot of it on the work of uh Gustav Laban, who wrote the study of the crowd, and also wrote the uh psychology of socialism and the psychology of revolutions.
• 34:01
  And this is what this is about.
• 34:03
  Mass formation.
• 34:04
  People are literally hypnotized, and as they form a crowd, they want to be, they want to feel the warmth of belonging.
• 34:13
  And they don't believe so much based on facts or reason.
• 34:16
  They believe something together, they go for it because they want to belong.
• 34:21
  They want to feel that warmth of being part of that group, and they they literally become kind of like hypnotized.
• 34:27
  They become hit hypnotic subjects.
• 34:30
  And Desmond makes the point that it isn't when you hypnotize an individual, the the hypnotist uh does not is not carried away with what he's telling the person, like you can give a suggestion to a person to f to not feel pain when you prick their finger.
• 34:48
  You've probably seen those demonstrations.
• 34:50
  But the hypnotist isn't diluted like the pay like the person that he's hypnotizing.
• 34:56
  But in the case of mass formation, the demagogues who are hypnotizing the masses with their message, you know, uh, they actually are also self-hypnotized.
• 35:00
  Are hypnotizing the masses with their message, you know.
• 35:03
  Uh, they actually are also self-hypnotized.
• 35:07
  They actually believe the nonsense.
• 35:07
  They actually believe the nonsense.
• 35:09
  You know, uh, I think Hitler believed the nonsense that he was repeating, a lot of it.
• 35:09
  You know, uh I think Hitler believed the nonsense that he was repeating, a lot of it.
• 35:14
  Uh I think that um, you know, somebody like Nick Fuentes believes a lot of the nonsense that he repeats.
• 35:14
  I I think that um, you know, somebody like Nick Fuentes believes a lot of the nonsense that he repeats.
• 35:20
  Um, and of course, the these people, they're like it's like an infection.
• 35:20
  Um, and of course, the these people, they're like it's like an infection.
• 35:25
  Uh Gustav Le Bon called it a a um uh an epic.
• 35:25
  Uh Gustav Le Bon called it a um uh an epidemic or pandemic of the mind.
• 35:32
  You could use the term mind virus, and it just spreads rapidly until it it burns itself out.
• 35:40
  And we're seeing that right now.
• 35:41
  I mean, the hysteria of the 1930s that that brought Hitler to power and caused World War II was one of these mass formation events.
• 35:50
  Uh he uses Desmet uses the pandemic, how people went crazy in the government, had these bizarre narratives about, you know, they would say one thing one week and it would change.
• 36:00
  And we were supposed to believe it every turn, uh, everything they were saying.
• 36:05
  And of course, this goes together.
• 36:07
  Desmond makes the point that bureaucratic government and authority, uh, especially when the leadership itself is mediocre, easily falls into this mass formation psychosis.
• 36:22
  And it's like everybody collectively goes insane, and it really is dangerous because that's how you get wars.
• 36:30
  You we see this mentality in Russia in their media.
• 36:32
  I mean, you watch their media, they're talking about nuclear war, and they're and they're talking about like it's something they might want, right?
• 36:40
  Yeah, like that they their moral duty is to destroy and eradicate the Ukrainians, and the worst.
• 36:47
  This is a moral imperative.
• 36:49
  And you know, they these people are right into it.
• 36:53
  You know, we've seen this many times, the cult Chinese cultural revolution, you know, the the peace, the the peace revolutions in American soil in the in the 60s, um, and now we've got this rise of anti-Semitism, this neo-communism coming on.
• 37:10
  Um, you know, and the Russians in that are all driving this.
• 37:13
  But you know, you got a you got a situation where, as you say, people are uh the the old the old ways are folding, the old certainties are gone, the old faith in institutions is gone.
• 37:27
  So people are just hopping onto all these crazy ideologies, even flat earthism is is getting more popular, apparently, you know, because they want to belong to something and have some certainty, even if it's absolutely crazy.
• 37:42
  And and one of the great drivers of this mass formation psychosis is uh fear.
• 37:48
  And of course, you've got financial fears now, you've got uh some war fears, especially in Europe with the Russians.
• 37:57
  But you when you then talk about shortages of food, that's a real fear for human beings not having enough to eat.
• 38:06
  And so you combine all these fears, and what do people want to do?
• 38:10
  They want to blame some all-powerful somebody who did this to them, right?
• 38:15
  Even though it's the sun may be doing it, and it's the bungling of you know, the madness of the clockwork of these crazy systems.
• 38:23
  And so you get people who both believe in these conspiracy theories where they're blaming people, and there's the people that also believe that um the government is doing it to them, you know, or and and of course, always it is the feeling that I'm totally disempowered, and the power exists among someone else when really the whole thing is just going out of control.
• 38:43
  Nobody really knows what's happening or is able to control it.
• 38:49
  Yeah, exactly.
• 38:51
  So getting back to President Trump, you know, like I think you and I both agree that there is no grand strategy in virtually anything he does, other than he is guided by the only strategy I would say is he's guided by the um Curtis Jarvin types and the Dugan types who want to have uh an independent Western hemisphere, give Russia Europe, give China the West Asia, and we'll all live happy happily ever after.
• 39:23
  And I think there's some element of that in his philosophy, not that he thought of it, but it's been planted there by the Tuck Carlsons and his son and uh those people around him.
• 39:38
  But so the only strategy that I see is actually quite a malevolent and and bare evil one.
• 39:44
  So now Trump's talking about he's gonna take over Cuba.
• 39:48
  Well, like, well, he took over Venezuela, did he?
• 39:51
  Did he um did he destroy Hamas?
• 39:55
  Did he finish off the Iranian regime?
• 39:57
  I I see some powerful operations and and very clever stuff done, but I don't see him finishing any of these tasks.
• 40:05
  And how's he going to be taking over Cuba?
• 40:08
  Well, uh, you know, it's funny, Anthony Scaramucci recently did an interview with Vlad Vexler, uh uh, and he said he said to him, he said, 'Look, Trump is lazy and he never finishes anything,' was one of the comments he made.
• 40:22
  And I found that very interesting because he's certainly not finishing this war with Iran.
• 40:26
  And this idea of kidnapping Maduro, he hasn't, you know, I'm so shocked at how many people say, Oh, yeah, we control Venezuela now.
• 40:33
  Um, excuse me, it's a communist country still, we don't control it.
• 40:37
  If they have uh kowtowed to us briefly, it is something you cannot trust, and it isn't something permanent.
• 40:45
  And when it comes to Cuba, yeah, it comes to Cuba.
• 40:49
  If we're not willing to put boots on the ground in Iran and we don't put boots in the ground, what we're gonna kidnap Raul Castro and then it's gonna change the regime.
• 40:59
  No, it's not.
• 41:00
  That's that's again, that's a that's a half-baked nonsensical way of conducting foreign policy or military policy.
• 41:08
  Nobody, if you kid if you kidnapped the leader of a country, you now control that country.
• 41:13
  No, we don't control Venezuela, it's nonsense.
• 41:16
  Um if we'd kidnapped Hitler in 1943, I don't believe the Nazis would have given up.
• 41:23
  You know, so we got the number three guy.
• 41:25
  We we got him, he parachuted into Scotland, Rudolf Hess.
• 41:29
  That didn't stop anything.
• 41:30
  Hitler just denounced Rudolph Hess as a madman and said, forget about him.
• 41:36
  Um so they would just denounce Hitler as you know, somebody poisoned his his grapefruit or something, and he ended up, you know, as a prisoner.
• 41:44
  But uh, you know, they they would go on, you know, the Nazis had their beliefs, just the same thing.
• 41:49
  If Vladimir Putin dies, there's gonna be somebody else replace him, and whatever they say publicly, it might hopefully cause peace to happen, but they're still the same evil bunch.
• 42:00
  It isn't, you know, countries aren't really led by individuals so much as it's groups around them, around the individuals.
• 42:00
  It isn't, you know, countries aren't really led by individuals um so much as it's groups around them, around the individuals.
• 42:10
  This is something right.
• 42:11
  It's a Slovakia in Russia.
• 42:13
  You know, and my my view, I honestly believe, you know, Putin's not really the driving force here.
• 42:13
  You know, and my my view, I honestly believe, you know, Putin's not really the driving force here.
• 42:18
  He is serving at the pleasure of the Soloviki.
• 42:18
  He is serving at the pleasure of the Soloviki, and he may have got some degree of autonomy, he may be terrorizing some of them.
• 42:21
  And he may have got some degree of autonomy.
• 42:24
  He may be terrorizing some of them.
• 42:26
  But the minute, you know, uh heavily watching his back.
• 42:26
  But the minute, you know, uh heavy watching his back all the time if he steps out of line.
• 42:32
  I think he is doing and invading Ukraine is following the policy of the Soloviki, the KGB types, the military guys to start invades to start tipping the balance of power against the West.
• 42:47
  I don't think this is it was Putin's decision.
• 42:50
  I think No, I I I agree with you.
• 42:52
  Yeah, he he see.
• 42:53
  I think one of the things uh a KGB defector told me years ago is that um Putin exists to take responsibility for things the people around him don't want to take responsibility for.
• 43:07
  Right.
• 43:08
  Right.
• 43:09
  Uh and that is a very, and Putin is a was a nervy guy.
• 43:12
  He was a guy that wasn't afraid to take responsibility, and he he had a good run there for a while, but now the responsibility is coming home to roost.
• 43:20
  And aren't they relieved to be able to put it all on his shoulders and blame him?
• 43:24
  This is what Khrushchev did to Stalin when Stalin died, he blamed everything that had gone wrong in the Soviet Union on Stalin, and then he continued forward with his quote unquote reforms.
• 43:35
  Gorbachev did the same thing after after Brezhnev and Andropov.
• 43:39
  He he basically said the era of stagnation is over, we need to go to to reforms and try capitalism.
• 43:46
  This is what Lenin did after NEP in the 1920s.
• 43:50
  So they're always going to do this, but it doesn't mean that they aren't still communists at heart and aren't still trying to find a way to subvert us.
• 43:59
  Yeah, look, um, I posted a little thing on the conservatives for Ukraine.
• 44:04
  It's the guy um where something is a former CIA guy has written a book about Putin and the people behind him and the Soviet dirty tricks, and he quoted an intelligence officer, a Russian intelligence officer, um, just after 9-11, who had been cooperating with the Americans, so he was betraying his country.
• 44:26
  And this uh Wiswessa said, you know, now now, you know, we've got we're we're gonna join together and fight Al-Qaeda, aren't we?
• 44:33
  You know, with the Russians and the Americans, we're gonna fight as you know, radical Islam.
• 44:38
  And this guy just laughed at him.
• 44:40
  He said, Look, in the cold war, you are our main enemy.
• 44:43
  Today, you are our main enemy.
• 44:45
  In the future, you will be our main enemy.
• 44:49
  You and secondarily as your NATO allies, there will never be peace.
• 44:54
  We want to destroy you.
• 44:56
  And and this, I think is something we've never got our heads around.
• 44:59
  And there was never an end to the cold war, as far as the Russians were concerned.
• 45:04
  No, there wasn't.
• 45:05
  Yeah, Sergei Tretchukov was a K was a KGB uh SVR, uh, then afterwards officer who I think he was uh he defected over to us in what was it, 2000, 2001.
• 45:18
  Uh, and he he said to an American journalist, he said, You don't understand Russia today wants to destroy the United States even more than the Soviet Union did.
• 45:28
  And he was saying that, you know, he was telling that more than 20 years ago to an American journalist.
• 45:34
  So and you know, when you when you read what uh GRU defector, Colonel Stanislav Lunov said, he said they they've retained their missiles, their nuclear weapons for a reason.
• 45:43
  You know, they've they've got this agreement with the Chinese to destroy you.
• 45:47
  So it's not just Russia, it's Russia and China, and they want to destroy the United States because if the United States is gone, all the other countries that depend on us for the defense are lost.
• 45:59
  They they can't hold out.
• 46:01
  That's right.
• 46:02
  Yeah, because nuclear weapons are the are the ultimate thing.
• 46:05
  Once you have no nuclear umbrella, you know, and and of course uh you you've had this this threat from Trump that he's gonna pull out of NATO, and so uh President Macron of France has said, well, we'll use the French deterrent, and uh Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister joked, oh yeah, you have three nuclear weapons, that's not going to work against our thousands, you know.
• 46:26
  He he basically mocked him.
• 46:28
  And and this is the Russian attitude.
• 46:30
  We're gonna own the world when the America's not defending it anymore.
• 46:34
  And they they're they've been open about it.
• 46:37
  Yeah, and this uh this is the thing, and I think this is what's dawning on many Europeans now.
• 46:41
  They they thought that America was always going to be there, and that was how it was going to be.
• 46:48
  And and now they're faced with the prospect of it not being there, and you got all these Americans.
• 46:53
  I saw a little uh this is on the internet again on Facebook, all of this uh somebody was saying that Trump wants to defund the United Nations and international organizations and the US State Department and NATO, and everybody was chairing, you know, and I'm all about defunding the State Department and the United Nations and abolishing it.
• 47:14
  But NATO, you know, these people are so stupid.
• 47:21
  What is going to happen if there is no NATO?
• 47:24
  America's gonna be safer, you know.
• 47:26
  The the sovereign Russian strategy is clear, even though they may be losing in Ukraine, they're winning the hearts and minds of the world, and that not to support Russia, but to sow division in the West and a surrender mentality and a Pollyanna-ish, you know, there's no threat to us.
• 47:49
  If we don't bother Russia, they're not gonna bother us.
• 47:52
  It's like saying if we don't bother Hitler, he's not gonna bother us, or Genghis Khan or Napoleon or any other Alexander the Great.
• 47:59
  There's always people who want to bother us.
• 48:03
  And if we don't have NATO, that brings them one step closer to us without allies.
• 48:10
  Yeah, one of two things happened with that.
• 48:12
  Either uh either Europe basically is forced into some kind of union with Russia, where they dominated as they've openly said they want to, and which case then Europe joins our enemy, Russia.
• 48:27
  Russia will still want to destroy us after it's gotten control of Europe.
• 48:32
  And then they'll have the Germans and Ukrainians and the Poles on their side.
• 48:36
  And and if we don't defend Europe, the Japanese won't trust us to defend them.
• 48:40
  They'll cut a separate deal with the Chinese and Russians and we'll lose Japan.
• 48:44
  And United States, people don't realize this.
• 48:46
  The United States economy is built as part of uh our alliance system is also an economic system where we serve a specialized defensive role.
• 48:55
  If you destroy that system, we can't, we would have to rebuild our economy practically from scratch.
• 49:00
  practically from scratch and that would take years and we wouldn't our defense system would collapse we wouldn't be able to defend or counter it and we would probably be thrown into turmoil because of the economic problems.
• 49:01
  And that would take years, and we wouldn't, our defense system would collapse.
• 49:05
  We wouldn't be able to defend or counter it.
• 49:08
  And we would probably be thrown into turmoil because of the economic problems.
• 49:12
  But aside from that, uh I think I think there is enough common sense among Americans and Europeans that despite Trump's uh errant policies in this regard, that NATO probably will uh remain, that there will be.
• 49:12
  But aside from that, uh I think I think there is enough common sense among Americans and Europeans that despite Trump's uh errant policies in this regard that NATO probably will in uh remain that there will be an American presence but the thought that Trump won't defend could encourage the Russians to commit acts of aggression that could lead us directly into World War III.
• 49:40
  Look I none of us would be surprised if if Russia attacks one of the Baltic states very soon for instance or Moldova or something like that.
• 49:50
  You know I don't think anybody surprised but and so what's Trump going to do then yeah that's to to say oh you that's your problem it's not our problem if if he said that I think he would be impeached and I think the Republicans would happily put him away we have a problem with the vice president as well because vice president Vance in some regards is more consciously more openly hostile to Europe and NATO and and for them to have celebrated uh Orban in Hungary as some kind of great leader when he is the the one main Russian stooge in Europe in NATO now gratefully thrown out of power for them to do that shows how bad Vance's judgment is and it's it's just a shame I mean this is not I I you would hope if if they had decent advisors around them and people who knew what they were doing to talk to them they could talk them out of these ill informed views but instead they have all these people around them who are loyalists and lackeys and you could say sycophants who merely mirror these views.
• 50:56
  Yeah look and it seemed to be in an echo chamber don't they like just beyond illusional but would be comical if it wasn't so tragic.
• 51:06
  But so and this is a thing too you know if the midterms uh go badly which they were could well do given the Ukraine war uh the um Iranian adventure so so Trump gets impeached and Vance may get impeached as well and you could get a democrat president you could get Hakim Jeffries the speaker of the House as president that is that is possible which is really weird the in that uh we have a supposedly right wing American president who won't confront Russia and China who gets involved in a war in Iran he can't win and then he ends up destroying the economy and getting replaced with a socialist yeah that's that's a win-win for the Russians isn't it in the Chinese it's it is really a win-win because you know whatever policies the Democrats are going to put they're gonna open the border and and and as the world economy gets worse people are going to flood in worse than ever before and the country's going to go into chaos exactly plus the Supreme Court will be stacked Puerto Rico and Washington will be states so there'll be two more left wing senators plus uh you know the the um electoral college will be abolished and America will be gone america will be a socialist state waiting to be fully destroyed and occupied by the Chinese and Russians.
• 52:27
  And and do we really see Hakeem Jeffries or any of you know AOC or any of the other socialists do we really see any of them as standing up to China or Russia or rather embracing China and uh maybe saying bad things about Russia but not doing anything seriously about it.
• 52:45
  Yeah exactly you know we're not going to get look like Joe Biden was classic at this he was always oh yes we stand with Ukraine but he wouldn't deliver the weapons promised he didn't invited the told Putin that a limited incursion into Ukraine would not warrant an uh an American response it just you dragged everything out you know who Biden was always Russia's little puppet right back to the 70s he was put he was a Russian puppet then he was an Iranian and a Chinese puppet.
• 53:16
  So yeah and you had the Bukovsky files show that he went to the central committee and said look I have to talk against the Soviet Union but I'm really your guy yeah uh I have to do it for American public opinion that memo I've seen that memo they they uh they had him they had him under their under their wing you know and they helped him you know he was elect first elected by the Council for a livable world as a surprise candidate in Delaware which are an organization set up by us by a Soviet spy um you know from the Manhattan project Armand Hammer was also involved in promoting Biden yeah Armand Hammer got him and so there's two Soviet spies helped get uh help get Biden elected and he's always been their guy you know back in the 80s when Reagan was trying to stop communism Latin America his three main opponents in the Senate were of course Joe Biden and Ted Kennedy and I've just forgot the name another very famous left winger but you know the idea that Biden was some kind of moderate or anything is just beyond ridiculous and there are no moderates left in the Democratic Party now that's a communist party now.
• 54:29
  So we got a pro-Russian Republican Party getting more divided every day and the alternative is a a Chinese dominated communist party and we're the strongest country in the world.
• 54:42
  That doesn't look good for anybody no and people can't wrap their head around this uh they think that because you know people take things that people that the leaders say at face value and they really shouldn't how ironic it is then that the Democrats who don't want to be caught surrendering our power over to the communist abroad uh found this this republican they can blame it all on yeah yeah exactly he gives them cover doesn't he it does yeah well unfortunately Jeff we've come to the end of our time and we there's always many areas untouched but thanks for giving an update on your views you know it's always sobering and it's always but it's always realistic and the only hope is truth isn't it you know yes the truth I I think there's a spiritual power and just saying the facts it it's a liberating it's scary but it's liberating but it's our only way through but I think it it's an act of courage and faith and that that I think God listens to I really do.
• 55:49
  Yeah well if truth is crucified you're gonna suffer some crucifixion for telling it but it it's the only thing because if you live in a fantasy you are you are going to everything around you is going to turn rotten if you live a lie.
• 56:00
  You are going to everything around you is going to turn rotten if you live a lie.
• 56:04
  Nothing will work out.
• 56:04
  Nothing will work out and and I think it was Solzhenitsyn who pointed out if the lie is your method then murder is going to be your end.
• 56:06
  And I think it was Solzhenitson who pointed out if the lie is your method, then murder is going to be your end.
• 56:13
  You're going to end up killing people.
• 56:13
  You're gonna end up killing people yeah yeah and that's inevitable consequence yes it's uh Cain and Abel you know right in pro big history hasn't changed.
• 56:14
  Yeah, yeah.
• 56:15
  And uh that's inevitable consequence.
• 56:18
  Yes, it's uh Cain and Abel, you know, right.
• 56:22
  History hasn't changed.
• 56:24
  Well, thanks very much, Jeff.
• 56:24
  Well thanks very much Jeff it's always a pleasure and uh no doubt we'll update again soon it's I
• 56:25
  It's always a pleasure.
• 56:26
  And uh no doubt we'll update again soon.
• 56:29
  It's I don't think we're in for any boring um news cycles in the immediate future.
• 56:35
  No, no, that's true.
• 56:39
  Yeah, okay.
• 56:40
  Well, thanks so much, sir, and thanks very much to the audience for listening.