Latest / The Sports Card CEO Podcast / Episode 24, S2: The Boys Are Back | Kern Returns to Break Down the MLB & Card Market
Transcript
- 0:00[SPEAKER_01]: What has happened, ladies and gentlemen?
- 0:01[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome to the sports card C-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-E-
- 0:27[SPEAKER_02]: League of Regan, there it is, he did it, a 47th season and a season unlike any other at Major League Baseball history from one of the Cognitive Junior.
- 0:56[SPEAKER_03]: What's up, guys?
- 0:57[SPEAKER_03]: This is my truck and this is a sports car.
- 0:59[SPEAKER_03]: See you, uh, it's current.
- 1:00[SPEAKER_03]: Bubba and hand.
- 1:05[SPEAKER_03]: What's up, guys?
- 1:06[SPEAKER_03]: How are we doing?
- 1:07[SPEAKER_01]: It's good to be back.
- 1:09[SPEAKER_01]: Bubba and Hammer on Spring Break this week.
- 1:11[SPEAKER_00]: So Bubba is, uh, I mean, terms basement for Spring Break is dark down here.
- 1:16[SPEAKER_03]: I wish I had a basement.
- 1:17[SPEAKER_00]: The apartments are making it.
- 1:18[SPEAKER_00]: And parking garages.
- 1:19[SPEAKER_00]: That's where my family is at.
- 1:21[SPEAKER_00]: We're in terms parking garages.
- 1:23[SPEAKER_03]: some rats down there.
- 1:24[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, man.
- 1:25[SPEAKER_01]: Well, boys, it is good to have everybody on today.
- 1:27[SPEAKER_01]: And we're going to dive into, and this is like a nostalgia episode for us.
- 1:32[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, oh, my gosh, I'll all three of the boys, all three of the CEOs are here.
- 1:36[SPEAKER_01]: And make sure like baseball is underway.
- 1:38[SPEAKER_01]: This is, uh, this is going to be fun.
- 1:40[SPEAKER_01]: So in in classic faction current, you're going to bat lead off today.
- 1:44[SPEAKER_01]: Since you're you're doing this back.
- 1:45[SPEAKER_03]: a little bit of a high that he'd off she's well it's um it's nice to know that the last three months I've been gone for your ship has increased by 50% so I guess I I see my way out you guys have been all the doubt pretty well it'll be anybody misses me here no it's good to be back and I'm excited to talk some baseball with you guys
- 2:08[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I mean, I, nothing's happened in the last three months at all.
- 2:11[SPEAKER_03]: So no, I actually just got back from Spring Break and the kids had Spring Break and we went to Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, which was absolutely beautiful and awesome.
- 2:22[SPEAKER_03]: The weather was amazing.
- 2:23[SPEAKER_03]: Kids had a great time and now I'm just back in the swing of things.
- 2:26[SPEAKER_03]: You know, I'm at the office right now.
- 2:28[SPEAKER_03]: Did some construction here in the office.
- 2:30[SPEAKER_03]: So I have a little different of it set up.
- 2:31[SPEAKER_03]: But all as well, I'm glad that that baseball is back.
- 2:35[SPEAKER_03]: I've been watching a ton of games.
- 2:37[SPEAKER_03]: I've been I've been following my meds closely and and the brave so they're Drake Baldwin is absolutely crushing it, but we'll get it for that.
- 2:45[SPEAKER_01]: We'll get into that in his hits and hits.
- 2:49[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, tonight I'm actually I'm going with my wife of taking her to Yankee Stadium.
- 2:54[SPEAKER_03]: We're going to go on the field for batting practice and then see the guys from the A's and then we're going to me and I'm going to go rip with Kurt's and Jacob Wilson and Soaderstrom over at their hotel.
- 3:05[SPEAKER_03]: So we're going to do some ripping.
- 3:06[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, which will be fun.
- 3:08[SPEAKER_01]: You in the boys me in the boys and the girl bring in the lady to the to the boys.
- 3:14[SPEAKER_01]: That's awesome.
- 3:15[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I want to introduce her to the world a little bit.
- 3:17[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's good man.
- 3:18[SPEAKER_01]: That is good.
- 3:19[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, but you are in your room sitting on the beautiful white sand beaches of A, but you're you're here with us and so you're up next.
- 3:28[SPEAKER_00]: I'm actually smoking a cigar right now as we speak, sitting on the turns of parking deck here in New York.
- 3:35[SPEAKER_00]: He did bring me down a little coffee from yesterday's batch, so we're, are you really smoking a cigar?
- 3:41[SPEAKER_00]: No, I'm it's it's it's a little after seven here where and I'm in I'm in Florida Kind of boring for us where at the same spot.
- 3:49[SPEAKER_00]: We always go come down to the 38 area seaside areas where we're at this week It isn't sane down here.
- 3:56[SPEAKER_00]: I'm here to everybody.
- 3:57[SPEAKER_00]: I just say plan is there are there are too many people in this spot Yeah, I don't know what that was about anyway, but I'm here with everybody else in the planet
- 4:05[SPEAKER_00]: My life has been very, very busy for us as we talked about every week, baseball continues.
- 4:10[SPEAKER_00]: We get a little bit of a break from that, but I did want to announce the sports card CEO baseball field that I'm building at my house.
- 4:17[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to call it sports card CEO field.
- 4:19[SPEAKER_00]: is nearing completion.
- 4:21[SPEAKER_00]: So when that gets completed, we'll have to what that's sure that one with everybody.
- 4:26[SPEAKER_00]: Because I mean, that thing's going to be cool boys.
- 4:28[SPEAKER_00]: When we get that thing done, we're going to get a banner in the outfield, sportsguard CEO, it's going to be sweet.
- 4:32[SPEAKER_03]: Can we get some progress picks?
- 4:33[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, next week, all send the, I'll see if we can get some of the ham here, we can post them up.
- 4:39[SPEAKER_00]: So right now, we're right in that project.
- 4:41[SPEAKER_00]: I'd basically took an area that was
- 4:44[SPEAKER_00]: No one would ever thought of it in a baseball field and cleared it out, cleared it out.
- 4:48[SPEAKER_00]: So now I'm just going to start with kind of a high school in field.
- 4:50[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to do turf.
- 4:51[SPEAKER_00]: And that project is now I just kept pushing a little bit bigger, a little bit bigger, a little bit bigger, and now all the the rock is down.
- 4:59[SPEAKER_00]: So you have to get aggregate when you're going to put turf.
- 5:01[SPEAKER_00]: So all the aggregate is down, and then we had the field laid out the other day and I was like,
- 5:05[SPEAKER_00]: We're just going to outgrow this field pretty quick.
- 5:07[SPEAKER_00]: So whether we brought in the excavators again.
- 5:09[SPEAKER_00]: So if the project has got a little bit bigger, but I am expecting probably the end of the next week.
- 5:14[SPEAKER_01]: That month or four, it is in Germany, that month, blah, blah, blah, you just have a tag line of your life.
- 5:20[SPEAKER_01]: It's like the project is going to get bigger.
- 5:23[SPEAKER_00]: The project has taken the turn.
- 5:26[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, this started as just a little fun.
- 5:28[SPEAKER_00]: We have a whole life as a project.
- 5:31[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, it's a little bit of a turn.
- 5:34[SPEAKER_00]: So that is been on my project list.
- 5:37[SPEAKER_00]: We've been doing a ton of ton of work at the farm as well I could do project basically progress picks of both.
- 5:43[SPEAKER_00]: We've been doing a ton of work on both of those projects and that's keeping me busy between that and my kids and obviously in the baseball card world You know, I wish I had some exciting news to tell y'all the huge pickup I've been making them, but I've you know honestly I've just been nibbling I've on the same 10 to 12 13 14 guys
- 6:01[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, just kind of nibbling right now looking for like who is next?
- 6:04[SPEAKER_00]: What is next?
- 6:05[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm honestly I've got my fingers crossed if there's two or three guys that are in the miners going a swamp here so that I can find an opportunity to buy them, but they have not started on slumps.
- 6:16[SPEAKER_00]: So, like the rest of Major League Baseball that has, which I know we'll talk about today.
- 6:20[SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, yeah, my life is uh, it's nice to have a slowdown this week, it's nice to be at the beach.
- 6:25[SPEAKER_00]: It's nice to be doing something a little different, but I will get you all the progress picks, and we do need to have an episode live from the field, maybe maybe we do a live episode where we're all hitting some BP.
- 6:36[SPEAKER_00]: Who see who can hit it out of sports cards in the year field?
- 6:39[SPEAKER_00]: Let's do that.
- 6:40[SPEAKER_03]: Who wins that?
- 6:41[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, let's do that.
- 6:42[SPEAKER_03]: Who wins that between us three?
- 6:43[SPEAKER_00]: Well, if I go lefty, you'll have a chance.
- 6:46[SPEAKER_03]: Okay, but if you're going to write you then we don't have a chance.
- 6:48[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to write you.
- 6:49[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think you have a chance.
- 6:50[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, Boba, we'll just I'll let you sit and relish in that idea for I thought you were a pitcher.
- 6:56[SPEAKER_01]: I thought you were a pitcher.
- 6:57[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to think you could hit bro.
- 6:59[SPEAKER_01]: Don't at me.
- 7:00[SPEAKER_01]: I've got hitting the qualifications that you know nothing of Really, bro.
- 7:06[SPEAKER_01]: I could stroke, man.
- 7:07[SPEAKER_03]: Guys, just call me Ryan.
- 7:09[SPEAKER_03]: Oh, here.
- 7:11[SPEAKER_00]: I ain't turned no heard.
- 7:12[SPEAKER_03]: Right, I was carrying a horn.
- 7:13[SPEAKER_00]: I bet.
- 7:14[SPEAKER_00]: Well, let's do this for real.
- 7:15[SPEAKER_00]: We should come down.
- 7:16[SPEAKER_00]: We should do a little, uh, we should do a little home run, Darby.
- 7:18[SPEAKER_00]: We'll get this thing set up.
- 7:20[SPEAKER_00]: Come down.
- 7:20[SPEAKER_00]: We'll go home and Derby do it live.
- 7:22[SPEAKER_00]: That would be fun to see it.
- 7:24[SPEAKER_03]: That was fun.
- 7:25[SPEAKER_01]: Well, first of all, it did better be the sports cards to the EF field and where's full sponsorship.
- 7:30[SPEAKER_01]: The second question there is, did you like create an environment where like the the 19 whatever white socks can come out of the corn behind the field like build a dream or like I'm getting a little excited there is there is that option on this field you know honestly what we are doing
- 7:47[SPEAKER_00]: Because what we're going to do with this field, which I think is going to be extremely unique outside of what they're doing with the Astros, left field is to center field is going to have about a 50-foot runway up to the wall.
- 8:01[SPEAKER_00]: Similar to what you see at the Astros, how it kind of has that small slope up, left field is going to have that same kind of field on my field.
- 8:07[SPEAKER_00]: I want it because we had this area that was either going to be like a sheer cut and I was like, you know what, let's do what the Astros did.
- 8:13[SPEAKER_00]: I've always thought that was really cool how they
- 8:15[SPEAKER_00]: the runway up to the wall and center.
- 8:17[SPEAKER_00]: And so we kind of took that same idea and we're doing that from the left field foot foul pole all the way to center.
- 8:23[SPEAKER_00]: So it'll be fun.
- 8:25[SPEAKER_00]: Cool.
- 8:25[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm pretty pumped about this and you know, Bob, I think we need to we've got to get a real view of Roy Shrider from Jaws and we're going to need a bigger boat.
- 8:33[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's like life motto right there.
- 8:36[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to get you a shirt made that just says we're going to need a bigger boat.
- 8:39[SPEAKER_01]: Let me be, Baba.
- 8:40[SPEAKER_01]: Um, it's good that it's good that we hear for the hands.
- 8:43[SPEAKER_01]: We are at Ocean Al Beach, which is probably not nearly as busy as where you are above.
- 8:49[SPEAKER_01]: But it's a little secluded.
- 8:50[SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of a coastal beach in Browser County, kind of clean Wilmington and Murdoch Beach.
- 8:54[SPEAKER_01]: The you bit none of the craziness of Murdoch and a little bit less of the busyness of Wilmington.
- 8:59[SPEAKER_01]: So we're down here at my wife's family's place with Herkston and family.
- 9:02[SPEAKER_01]: Now I spring break for the kids.
- 9:03[SPEAKER_01]: I'm kind of commuting back and forth.
- 9:04[SPEAKER_01]: It's about an hour.
- 9:05[SPEAKER_01]: I've got
- 9:06[SPEAKER_01]: So much going on in the office right now stuff with early oak has just been oh man drinking from a fire hose I'm grateful for it, but it's very, very busy got a new higher coming on next week I've been up to one just a lot of stuff you know lost up to be grateful for but it's definitely very busy on the card front man just continue to.
- 9:23[SPEAKER_01]: pay attention for opportunities.
- 9:25[SPEAKER_01]: We had a really cool situation this weekend.
- 9:27[SPEAKER_01]: Old friends have been reaching out regularly and it's like, hey man, you know, I've seen what you and your son are doing and you know what, I want to get into some micro Jordan stuff, what should I get into?
- 9:35[SPEAKER_01]: I had a buddy, I went to elementary school with his younger brother.
- 9:39[SPEAKER_01]: And so this was like the older brother that was like too cool to talk to us back when we were kids, you know, but he reached out as a man, I see the card stuff and you know, I want to get into some Jordan's and I was like showing him some Jordan stuff.
- 9:48[SPEAKER_01]: He's like dude, I can't get into all that.
- 9:50[SPEAKER_01]: He's like, but I'm going to
- 9:53[SPEAKER_01]: shop and bought like a $30 Jordan slab or something.
- 9:56[SPEAKER_01]: And then he sent me a picture of a guy in Loomington who was selling a Jordan rookie.
- 10:01[SPEAKER_01]: And, man, I tell you what, it was one of those deals where we just knew it was good values, so we went and picked it up and run, you know, basically took it to the open mark.
- 10:10[SPEAKER_03]: It took advantage.
- 10:11[SPEAKER_03]: It made it.
- 10:12[SPEAKER_01]: Did we pay the guys full last?
- 10:14[SPEAKER_03]: Did you?
- 10:15[SPEAKER_03]: Okay.
- 10:18[SPEAKER_01]: It's got, but again, I think part of the value and hobby is understanding your liquidation panel, right?
- 10:26[SPEAKER_01]: If you're on Facebook marketplace and you're under some.
- 10:29[SPEAKER_01]: And you, and you see a card, and you go, huh, that card on the open marketplace would do a lot more than it does right here.
- 10:37[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he got bought at 95 or something he said and had it graded himself.
- 10:41[SPEAKER_01]: It graded a four bit of a pristine four.
- 10:44[SPEAKER_01]: It had a small surface issue.
- 10:45[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, we ended up making good money on it, good turn on it.
- 10:48[SPEAKER_01]: And it was just, it was a good example of keeping your eyes alert for opportunities.
- 10:55[SPEAKER_03]: you know in the smallest places and Matt what you just said right there is so true and I you know maybe maybe we don't talk about it enough but we've mentioned it before that
- 11:05[SPEAKER_03]: You know, if you're looking at a liquidate, it's important that you liquidate that you have the right place to liquidate like that you're putting the specific card in the right place, you know, obviously timing is is, you know, huge as well, but liquidating at the right in the right place as well, whether it's auction, which auction or privately or Facebook or whatever it might be super important.
- 11:27[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and I think I think to add to that next to is like, you know, there's a lot of people who just they are uncomfortable with the idea of shipping a card, you know, and so when we get into local markets and it shows and stuff and you run into people who they don't want to ship a card to auction, they don't want to deal with fees or whatever, like that's where you can find opportunity.
- 11:46[SPEAKER_01]: And if you've gotten comfortable with that and you've got those relationships or whatever, then you can kind of capitalize on, you know, having the stones to be able to do that.
- 11:54[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, and I do think a lot of it is, you know, a lot of people that are not willing to auction, not all people, but some people, I think it's ignorance like it's not their fault like they're uneducated in the process of putting it on auction because all they think is like I'm going to get hammered with fees and I make nothing and it's like it's not true.
- 12:12[SPEAKER_03]: If you have the right, you know, if you're doing it consistently and you're reaching out to the right people or you're reaching out to a friend who has a connection at the auction house, like you can still do very well, like you're not getting absolutely crushed.
- 12:26[SPEAKER_03]: I think it's just people being scared to lose.
- 12:29[SPEAKER_03]: I think they're losing 40% on it or something like that.
- 12:33[SPEAKER_01]: Well, it's like there's certain cards too that you just can't option.
- 12:37[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you know, you put them on auction and nobody's crushed.
- 12:40[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
- 12:40[SPEAKER_01]: or you put something on the auction that's like, just not liquid, but a Jordan rookie, like, I don't care where you put a Jordan rookie on auction, like it's always a matter.
- 12:48[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I mean, it doesn't matter.
- 12:50[SPEAKER_01]: So those are those are the kind of things that, you know, I'm bumming I've talked about this with, you know, our endeavor.
- 12:54[SPEAKER_01]: It's just sitting back right now and looking for opportunities.
- 12:57[SPEAKER_01]: Like, our quarter one play was a huge win.
- 12:59[SPEAKER_01]: We had a ridiculously good quarter one.
- 13:02[SPEAKER_01]: And now, Chitu's gonna be a little bit different of a idea.
- 13:06[SPEAKER_01]: And so we're kind of being more strategic, more selective, or whatever, but it's been good, and so that's said, please, we wanted to talk a little bit today and dive into like the main nuts and bolts of the show.
- 13:17[SPEAKER_01]: Current, you know, you're joining us here today.
- 13:19[SPEAKER_01]: We want to talk a little bit of major league baseball.
- 13:20[SPEAKER_01]: And I think the primary thing we want to focus on major league baseball is, but we alluded to this last week about how reactive the hobby is to performance.
- 13:31[SPEAKER_01]: You know, and how performance out of the gate for a lot of major league baseball is upside down.
- 13:38[SPEAKER_01]: You know, you've got like, yeah.
- 13:40[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think I think this is a something we should all see the feel of right now everybody was so excited through WBC everybody was so excited about spring training of buying that guy that was going to have that hot start right we talked about it like who's going to have the hot start who's going to be the guy this year who's going to be the calorie of this year who's going to who's going to come back and have the MVP season who's going to there's all these expectations going into the season right.
- 14:07[SPEAKER_00]: And here we are, and you look at this, and it'll say you load it up on some of these guys.
- 14:12[SPEAKER_00]: Here's a list.
- 14:13[SPEAKER_00]: I want, and then we can dive into this conversation.
- 14:16[SPEAKER_00]: I want to just rattle off this list.
- 14:18[SPEAKER_00]: Trevor's story leads us off, batting 130.
- 14:20[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, last year after having a huge comeback season, started this season, 130.
- 14:25[SPEAKER_00]: Francesco Lindor, 135.
- 14:27[SPEAKER_00]: Julio Rodriguez 143, Jose Ramirez 146, Cal Rally 146, Byron Buxton 147, Nick Kerps 148, George Springer, Unconscious in the World Series 155.
- 14:44[SPEAKER_00]: Alex Braggman, 150, Wyatt Langford, how many people were buying a Wyatt Langford couldn't get out during spring training, one for Torkelson, 162, often Riley, 162, James Wood, 163, Kyle Swarber, 171, Ronald Acunia, 175, Brent Rook, Rooker, 176, Mooky Bet, 179,
- 15:09[SPEAKER_00]: Corraldo Perdomo.
- 15:11[SPEAKER_00]: I was like an MVP got MVP votes last year for the Diamondbacks.
- 15:14[SPEAKER_00]: 182.
- 15:16[SPEAKER_00]: Salty Perez.
- 15:17[SPEAKER_00]: Salty Perez.
- 15:17[SPEAKER_00]: 184.
- 15:18[SPEAKER_00]: Can tell Marta.
- 15:19[SPEAKER_00]: 184.
- 15:19[SPEAKER_00]: Let's see.
- 15:21[SPEAKER_00]: Fernando Tettis.
- 15:22[SPEAKER_00]: 189.
- 15:24[SPEAKER_00]: We keep going up this list here.
- 15:25[SPEAKER_00]: Bryce Harper.
- 15:26[SPEAKER_00]: 200.
- 15:27[SPEAKER_00]: Boba shit.
- 15:28[SPEAKER_03]: He's starting to pick it up.
- 15:29[SPEAKER_03]: He's starting to pick it up, though.
- 15:31[SPEAKER_03]: A few reasons.
- 15:32[SPEAKER_00]: Peter Lanzo 205.
- 15:34[SPEAKER_00]: And here we continue to go Riley Green to 11.
- 15:37[SPEAKER_00]: Pete Crow Armstrong to 11.
- 15:38[SPEAKER_00]: Mike Trout to 12.
- 15:40[SPEAKER_00]: Matt McLean was unconscious.
- 15:43[SPEAKER_00]: in spring training, 2016, Gunner Henderson, 220, Mani Machado, 226, my boy, Luke Kieshal, slow start, 231.
- 15:54[SPEAKER_00]: So we're going to do this list.
- 15:55[SPEAKER_00]: Take your Wilson, 237.
- 15:58[SPEAKER_00]: You can go through this list, and you go to the top, okay?
- 16:01[SPEAKER_00]: So now we flip and say, okay, who has been crazy, huh?
- 16:04[SPEAKER_00]: You go to the top of this list, Andy Pahase is batten 474.
- 16:11[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean look at that it's crazy.
- 16:19[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I mean look, it's we all know this it's so early.
- 16:26[SPEAKER_03]: It's 10 11 games max like these guys one of these guys has a four for five game and they're batting 286 You know what I mean it's super early.
- 16:34[SPEAKER_03]: So like I like I hate when they
- 16:36[SPEAKER_03]: when there's a major league baseball game on right now and they show the average it bothers me because it really should just be like these guys have had like 30 bats or so like it's just eight for 35 like until they get to like you know 50 at bats or something 60 at bats has shown average because it just like it makes it look worse than it actually is but we you are correct in that every these guy a lot of these guys are off to really slow starts.
- 17:00[SPEAKER_03]: You know, I don't know, I don't know what's attributed to that.
- 17:03[SPEAKER_03]: Like he can't say rustingness in the case of Francisco Lindor, right?
- 17:07[SPEAKER_03]: Um, actually he didn't play in the world baseball classic this year.
- 17:11[SPEAKER_03]: You know, there's guys.
- 17:12[SPEAKER_03]: I'm sure there's guys that play in the world baseball classic that are struggling.
- 17:15[SPEAKER_03]: Obviously, he can say rustingness, you know, but, you know, small sample size.
- 17:20[SPEAKER_01]: Well, the interesting piece to me about this guy is this is where, you know, and above I think the overarching point here is the hobby is so reactive to something like batting average, right?
- 17:31[SPEAKER_01]: And the hobby in its generality is going to look at batting average in home runs.
- 17:35[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, when in reality baseball is so much more than batting average in home runs, you know, like if you look at OpenS, you know, the mean if you look at, you know, just the statistical data, you know, you look at guys that are hitting the ball.
- 17:48[SPEAKER_01]: They're not striking out.
- 17:50[SPEAKER_01]: They're making good contact.
- 17:51[SPEAKER_01]: They're just hitting it where guys are.
- 17:53[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, back a whole other element, but the interesting thing about baseball in general, I think he said this on an earlier episode, like how many guys batting over 300 last year?
- 18:02[SPEAKER_01]: I think it was like nine.
- 18:04[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe a very few, very few.
- 18:06[SPEAKER_01]: You know what I mean?
- 18:06[SPEAKER_01]: And so historically, almost changing.
- 18:10[SPEAKER_01]: And what was considered 300 is not 300 anymore.
- 18:14[SPEAKER_03]: No.
- 18:15[SPEAKER_01]: What is like 250?
- 18:16[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, what do you think that's a tribute to, Barbara?
- 18:18[SPEAKER_00]: you know, I just think that I mean, you hear it all the time.
- 18:22[SPEAKER_00]: These pictures now.
- 18:23[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, baseball is loaded.
- 18:25[SPEAKER_00]: You've got a starting picture that's coming in.
- 18:27[SPEAKER_00]: That's obviously got amazing stuff, right?
- 18:30[SPEAKER_00]: Well, then teams would look forward to the six, seven, eight, inning before a closer came in and they would try to pick on those guys.
- 18:38[SPEAKER_00]: And now, those arms, those guys maybe have bigger arms than the starter, right?
- 18:42[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, these guys are coming in
- 18:48[SPEAKER_00]: I think that the game now is well for the pictures, there's so much technology for these guys to break down these hitters.
- 18:56[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, if you're a guy and you've got a hole in your swing, they know where it's at.
- 19:00[SPEAKER_00]: And these guys are coming into the game and they're going to attack it.
- 19:04[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, and I think on the hit or side, I think the approach for a lot of users change like there's not a ton of just contact guys out there anymore it's it's power versus power and launch angle and home runner bust, you know, there's not a ton of contact guys like Luis Arias guys and
- 19:21[SPEAKER_03]: just used to be so many more like pests.
- 19:24[SPEAKER_03]: Remember like David X-Dine, he was just being kind.
- 19:27[SPEAKER_03]: Like there's not a lot of contact guys anymore.
- 19:29[SPEAKER_03]: There are some, but it's power versus power right now.
- 19:33[SPEAKER_03]: You know, it's velocity versus, there's power for the hitter.
- 19:35[SPEAKER_01]: Well, it's essentially
- 19:36[SPEAKER_01]: Like I look at this with like seven three boys who are 15 and 14, you know, the 20 to 14, Matthew's 15, like the basketball game has changed too, and they all should play travel basketball, and basketball now is 3's and ISO.
- 19:48[SPEAKER_01]: And it's just everybody's trying to isolate 101 taken to the rack, or it's a got pulling up from, you know, 30 feet.
- 19:55[SPEAKER_01]: And baseball is the same way.
- 19:56[SPEAKER_01]: It's like it's a pitcher's thing and like I said it's power on power.
- 19:59[SPEAKER_01]: And it's interesting because I remember Matthew's a Matthew's pitch and now and he's actually had a like three three these pitch three times now and he's coming in and relief for his J.
- 20:08[SPEAKER_01]: B. team, but I was proud of them today he got brought in.
- 20:12[SPEAKER_01]: they were five to two against the number one team in the conference and he got brought in.
- 20:16[SPEAKER_01]: He was tight.
- 20:17[SPEAKER_01]: You could tell he was squeezing a little bit and he walked the first guy and he was nervous.
- 20:22[SPEAKER_01]: I was out there kind of laughing not laughing because I was like, good for him having to be in this environment, you know.
- 20:27[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, he got out of it, got the safe.
- 20:30[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I was proud he's pitching really well, but he was talking to me is like, dad, how hard did you throw in high school when I said, well, I top down at like 87.
- 20:36[SPEAKER_01]: I think, but I was probably 84 to 86 consistently.
- 20:40[SPEAKER_01]: I had a good curb and he's like, you only threw 84 85.
- 20:42[SPEAKER_01]: I'm like, bro, back in the day, like when I was caught.
- 20:46[SPEAKER_01]: Nobody through 90, nobody through 90 and now everybody's throwing 100 and I'm sitting here to your point like the pitching and today's game, it's incomparable to where pitching has been historically.
- 20:58[SPEAKER_01]: You know what I mean for the league and I was I chased this rabbit because you know you see guys that get out there and they go, oh you know so and so went over this or so and so and over that
- 21:07[SPEAKER_01]: And I looked at, I put this on our Instagram page.
- 21:10[SPEAKER_01]: I looked at Tony Gwyn, Ty Cobb, you know the main Pete Rose, some of the greatest hitters of all time.
- 21:17[SPEAKER_01]: And I said, how many games, like, what was their percentage of games where they did not get a hit?
- 21:21[SPEAKER_01]: Like, the elite of the elite is Tony Gwyn and them.
- 21:24[SPEAKER_01]: They got hits in like 80% of the games they played them.
- 21:28[SPEAKER_01]: But then you go to like Geter and Griffey and it dropped down to like 70%.
- 21:33[SPEAKER_01]: And it's still fascinating to me that baseball and the greatest names in baseball, you know what I mean, that they had hundreds of games over the course of their career that they didn't get a hit in.
- 21:45[SPEAKER_01]: And here we go, oh my gosh, if the guys bat in 250 or doesn't get a hit, you think it's like the end of the world, you know what I mean?
- 21:53[SPEAKER_01]: So that said, I want to ask you guys this question, because this is a debate that I had in my own head.
- 21:58[SPEAKER_01]: When you think about the best hitter, right?
- 22:01[SPEAKER_01]: When you look at Major League Baseball and you think about the best hitter, I want you to say somebody today in the game today that you look at and you go like, that guy is just the best hitter.
- 22:10[SPEAKER_01]: Versus historic with somebody you think about as being a great hitter.
- 22:13[SPEAKER_03]: Who are you currently?
- 22:15[SPEAKER_03]: Or like in their career.
- 22:17[SPEAKER_01]: All right, so playing.
- 22:18[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, so my still playing, right?
- 22:20[SPEAKER_01]: So a modern guy and then look back over the game is like maybe all-time favorite hitter like in that conversation for you guys.
- 22:27[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I mean, I think it's got to be, I'm going to give you a comparison of two players.
- 22:32[SPEAKER_00]: And judge, verse Barry Bonds.
- 22:34[SPEAKER_00]: There are two very similar styles of hitters, right?
- 22:38[SPEAKER_00]: Big power.
- 22:39[SPEAKER_00]: What I'm going to compare those two for is they both.
- 22:42[SPEAKER_00]: This is how you know somebody's a tremendous hitter.
- 22:44[SPEAKER_00]: When a team walks you at the right, both of those got got get walked.
- 22:48[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you look at Aaron judge every year, when teams are afraid to pitch to you, that tells you a lot about that hitter.
- 22:54[SPEAKER_00]: So that would be a comparison I would give.
- 22:56[SPEAKER_00]: Current, I don't know.
- 22:57[SPEAKER_00]: What do you got?
- 22:58[SPEAKER_03]: I have Aaron judge and Tony Gwyn and completely, completely different hitters, you know what I mean?
- 23:05[SPEAKER_03]: I don't know how many how many home runs the Tony Glenn hit in his career.
- 23:08[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, he was he wasn't a big power hitter.
- 23:10[SPEAKER_03]: He was a big contact guy, you know, different hitters and it's kind of, you know, signifies different errors, but our judge is both he can hit and he has the power, you know, what figures.
- 23:20[SPEAKER_01]: thing about judges, and this is, I mean, judge a couple of years ago, he's gotten a lot better as strikeout rate, but I remember seeing a stat during judge struck out more, I think, in 2022, maybe 2021, than Tony Gwen struck out his entire career.
- 23:33[SPEAKER_01]: More strikeouts in that one position than Glenn had his entire career.
- 23:37[SPEAKER_01]: And you just look at, like, so I like, I look at like 10 Williams, right?
- 23:41[SPEAKER_01]: I love Teddy Balgain.
- 23:43[SPEAKER_01]: And you look at that dude, took three years off for the war.
- 23:47[SPEAKER_01]: and three of his most productive years ever.
- 23:50[SPEAKER_01]: And then came back and won the triple crown, right?
- 23:51[SPEAKER_01]: Like, but again, that's the thing.
- 23:53[SPEAKER_01]: It's almost unfair to compare Ted Williams to your very bonds because things have changed so, so dynamically much.
- 24:01[SPEAKER_01]: And that's just like you look at the modern baseball game and as many good players as there are,
- 24:06[SPEAKER_01]: You just don't have the kind of statistical output that you see when you look back across the areas at different hitters.
- 24:13[SPEAKER_01]: And the only ones that really come to mind is judge with his average in home run numbers from last year.
- 24:19[SPEAKER_01]: And it's just part of our area and can see guys do it that consistent.
- 24:22[SPEAKER_03]: It's crazy.
- 24:23[SPEAKER_03]: Tony going ahead of career batting average of 338.
- 24:26[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
- 24:27[SPEAKER_03]: where the total of 135 on runs, absolutely wild.
- 24:30[SPEAKER_03]: You know, pictures were topping out at what 92.
- 24:33[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, you know, not just not to take anything away from him.
- 24:36[SPEAKER_03]: It's just a different game right now.
- 24:38[SPEAKER_01]: It totally is.
- 24:38[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, and you got Mason Miller coming in throwing 103 or whatever he is and relieves like, and that's the thing is like that, I think the point in the conversation is is to kind of look at the hobby and say like, do not be so reactive, you know, to the quality and collectability of a player based on a batting average number,
- 24:57[SPEAKER_01]: over a very short period of time, you know, because so many other numbers and figures that go into making somebody elite.
- 25:04[SPEAKER_01]: And then, you know, these guys, like, we were watching some other day, anybody who's in the lead is a ridiculously elite baseball player.
- 25:12[SPEAKER_01]: And so for us, the crap on somebody is like, dude, these guys, that's the best.
- 25:17[SPEAKER_03]: Well, it's also like, what are you, what are you watching for?
- 25:20[SPEAKER_03]: And what are you, what are you hoping for?
- 25:21[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, if you're looking for the law, if you're looking for the short term gain, yeah, that those, that stuff matters, right?
- 25:27[SPEAKER_03]: But like if you're looking at say a guy like Connor Griffin, who cares that he's struggling right now?
- 25:31[SPEAKER_03]: Who cares?
- 25:32[SPEAKER_03]: Like that's, you didn't, I didn't buy him to, you know, make a, a buck in the first year necessarily.
- 25:39[SPEAKER_03]: Like if, if I, I believe, like that's a guy I believe in a long term, right?
- 25:43[SPEAKER_03]: Like so like,
- 25:44[SPEAKER_03]: bottom for the next five to 10 years, not the next 10 days.
- 25:49[SPEAKER_03]: So, but if you're buying a guy that's, you know, that you think is going to come off to a hot start, then yeah, matters, right?
- 25:55[SPEAKER_03]: But that you want to quick flip on, you know, from a hobby perspective.
- 25:59[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, but the guys
- 26:00[SPEAKER_03]: long-term who cares if they're struggling like that's that's the reactive part that I don't I don't get like the the over reactors on Connor right now like oh at least playing he's playing a great short stop right now but he can't hit since the first game it's like it's been like a few games that the kid had given the kid a chance and I mean long-term play here
- 26:19[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I know a lot of people, I know a lot of people tune in to our show, you know, every week, wanting to know like who's the next person?
- 26:27[SPEAKER_00]: Who's the next pick?
- 26:28[SPEAKER_00]: Who's the, and I know we haven't necessarily given that, right?
- 26:32[SPEAKER_00]: And the last.
- 26:33[SPEAKER_00]: He's not here yet.
- 26:34[SPEAKER_00]: Yes.
- 26:34[SPEAKER_00]: It's not, it's not, it's not a term.
- 26:37[SPEAKER_00]: And there's a long season ahead.
- 26:38[SPEAKER_00]: But what I will tell you is, as I look at the market right now, I think what could happen if this continues for the next week.
- 26:45[SPEAKER_00]: where you get some of these guys continuing to struggle.
- 26:48[SPEAKER_00]: I'll uh, you know, Ronald Acunia, Francisco Lendor, what will happen is you're going to get some people panic sale.
- 26:56[SPEAKER_00]: And what's going to happen is there's not a lot of people that like stomach stomaching buying somebody that's batting one third.
- 27:03[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, they're not out there going.
- 27:05[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, let me go see.
- 27:06[SPEAKER_00]: So there's a lot less eyes on some of these guys.
- 27:09[SPEAKER_00]: So if you're looking for an opportunity right now of the next couple weeks is guys are batting 176 135 there will be less eyes on them and there will be a tremendous amount of eyes.
- 27:20[SPEAKER_00]: on guys that are batting like I'll give you an example.
- 27:24[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to talk about a guy that's he is literally coming from the grave right now.
- 27:28[SPEAKER_00]: His card prices are coming from the grave in Jordan Walker.
- 27:32[SPEAKER_00]: Jordan Walker you couldn't have given almost his card away back six months ago.
- 27:38[SPEAKER_03]: Nobody's really happy right now.
- 27:40[SPEAKER_03]: Who's that?
- 27:40[SPEAKER_03]: I was really happy right now.
- 27:42[SPEAKER_03]: Shondarudian.
- 27:43[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, yes, breaks.
- 27:44[SPEAKER_03]: He's got more Jordan Walker than I have ever seen.
- 27:47[SPEAKER_03]: He's got every Jordan Walker card alive.
- 27:49[SPEAKER_03]: He's been waiting for this moment.
- 27:52[SPEAKER_00]: What's your cool story?
- 27:53[SPEAKER_00]: It's a cool story because that's the thing you're talking about a Connor Griffin, right?
- 27:57[SPEAKER_00]: People are so quick to give up on somebody.
- 28:00[SPEAKER_00]: Jordan Walker was a kid.
- 28:02[SPEAKER_00]: The Cardinals brought him up in the league as a kid.
- 28:05[SPEAKER_00]: It was never a doubt that he had talent.
- 28:07[SPEAKER_00]: He struggled, right?
- 28:08[SPEAKER_00]: And now here he is, he's having success.
- 28:11[SPEAKER_00]: Baseball is such a mental game.
- 28:13[SPEAKER_00]: When you finally give it Roland, man, that thing looks like a watermelon coming in.
- 28:17[SPEAKER_00]: when you're struggling, it looks like a DMP coming in, you know, and so I feel like I just feel like when people want to know if you tuned in today to say, who should I be buying?
- 28:28[SPEAKER_00]: I would probably not be looking at the top unless you think one of those guys is just going to continue that result.
- 28:34[SPEAKER_00]: You need to be looking at the bottom.
- 28:36[SPEAKER_01]: I was going to say that the interesting piece about this is like you have to understand the underlying driver of value when it comes to cars and when you look at a guy like Connor specifically like people are so emotional right this is my little rant for a second.
- 28:51[SPEAKER_01]: the majority of the hobby and people in the hobby.
- 28:54[SPEAKER_01]: They're so emotionally reactive based on the fuma, the fear of missing out or whatever the detractors to be saying.
- 29:02[SPEAKER_01]: And so people are super volatile.
- 29:04[SPEAKER_01]: But when you look at a guy like Connor and it's about potential, it's about skillset.
- 29:09[SPEAKER_01]: Like dude.
- 29:10[SPEAKER_01]: This is skill set and tools that very few people possess in combination.
- 29:17[SPEAKER_01]: And so you're buying the idea and you're investing in the potential of a guy, not necessarily in the immediate performance.
- 29:25[SPEAKER_01]: But.
- 29:26[SPEAKER_01]: capitalizing on the media performance can be a really big win.
- 29:31[SPEAKER_01]: And so you've got to look beyond just the emotional triggers to start to see the bigger picture of actually what's for that.
- 29:37[SPEAKER_01]: We're hanging the hobby with these players.
- 29:39[SPEAKER_01]: Because I will say this, the thing that we've talked about specific to Connor Bubba over the past few months, dude, I don't care what social media thing you jump on.
- 29:48[SPEAKER_01]: his debut was everything we expected it to be.
- 29:52[SPEAKER_01]: It got all the eyes, all the media, all the attention, all the high, all the publicity, fanatics, jerseys, everywhere, number six kind of like that's the premise of why you get ahead of the current because you know that's what's coming regardless if he's won for 12 or whatever he is.
- 30:10[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
- 30:10[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
- 30:11[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
- 30:12[SPEAKER_00]: Baseball.
- 30:13[SPEAKER_00]: I was just going to say baseball is if don't be surprised now, we talked about this last year.
- 30:19[SPEAKER_00]: It was a straight incline up last year.
- 30:22[SPEAKER_00]: Let's bring ourselves back to a year ago, right, in baseball though we can't forget history and in sports cards collectibles a year ago.
- 30:30[SPEAKER_00]: It was a straight incline in the baseball card market.
- 30:33[SPEAKER_00]: If you looked at it, if you looked at the averages 30 days in, 90 days in, 180 days in, it was a straight incline up.
- 30:40[SPEAKER_00]: But do you know always who the straight-in-kind up was, the guy that was performing at that moment?
- 30:46[SPEAKER_00]: Don't forget that.
- 30:48[SPEAKER_00]: That this has become very much what have you done for me lately, industry.
- 30:52[SPEAKER_00]: And it's just what we were at guys.
- 30:55[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, look at a kid like JJ weatherhole.
- 30:57[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
- 30:58[SPEAKER_00]: How would y'all classify a kid that's bad at tin games, batting lead off?
- 31:02[SPEAKER_00]: How would y'all classify JJ weatherhole start?
- 31:04[SPEAKER_00]: Very good success.
- 31:06[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, I'm how would I would describe that a key component of their entire offense right now.
- 31:12[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, almost a 400 on base percentage batting lead off.
- 31:15[SPEAKER_00]: I'd say that's pretty good right the major leagues to almost a 400 O BP is gold to night to go his gold when somebody put it on market.
- 31:24[SPEAKER_00]: This is a whole another topic we can talk about the day when you in your cards on an auction.
- 31:29[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, ending your cards on an auction.
- 31:33[SPEAKER_00]: on a very heavily religious weekend at about six or seven o'clock at night is probably the worst thing you could ever do ending when when everybody is doing something okay and this card ended about i think seven eastern time and his gold nine did seventeen hundred
- 31:54[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, $1700 per guy that's batting 400 OBP.
- 32:02[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
- 32:03[SPEAKER_00]: He's been very successful.
- 32:04[SPEAKER_00]: No, has he hit that hit 10 home runs yet?
- 32:06[SPEAKER_00]: No, he has it.
- 32:07[SPEAKER_00]: Will he hit 20 to probably plus home runs this year?
- 32:10[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, he probably will.
- 32:11[SPEAKER_00]: Will he be successful?
- 32:12[SPEAKER_00]: Most likely.
- 32:13[SPEAKER_00]: Yes.
- 32:13[SPEAKER_00]: Is he going to be a great player?
- 32:15[SPEAKER_00]: No doubt about it.
- 32:16[SPEAKER_00]: And there you go.
- 32:17[SPEAKER_00]: You've got this bad comp that all the sudden is going to roll over
- 32:23[SPEAKER_00]: until something makes people go while again.
- 32:27[SPEAKER_00]: And so I just hope that's something people got to realize.
- 32:31[SPEAKER_03]: You know where won't roll over to, though?
- 32:32[SPEAKER_00]: What's that?
- 32:33[SPEAKER_03]: It's super fractor.
- 32:35[SPEAKER_00]: You're right.
- 32:35[SPEAKER_03]: Because it don't matter.
- 32:36[SPEAKER_03]: That's the point.
- 32:37[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, but that it's crazy.
- 32:39[SPEAKER_03]: Like, you know it.
- 32:40[SPEAKER_03]: the Ben Rice MLB debut patch into the other day.
- 32:43[SPEAKER_03]: It went for 68 and change $69,000.
- 32:48[SPEAKER_03]: That auction ended at 1026 AM Eastern Standard Time on a weekday.
- 32:55[SPEAKER_03]: Gosh.
- 32:55[SPEAKER_03]: And that's a strong number, but 1026 AM.
- 32:59[SPEAKER_03]: If that ended a Thursday night at 9 o'clock, that card does 75 probably, maybe 80, you know?
- 33:07[SPEAKER_01]: It's interesting to kind of see the little nuances and stuff like this about when you list cards and when you suffer.
- 33:13[SPEAKER_01]: These are the things guys that I think make this show invaluable to our listeners because not many people consider all these different dynamics and so when you offer up these little nuggets of wisdom about like
- 33:24[SPEAKER_01]: even the legitimacy of wind to end the card on auction, like the majority of the people getting into the hobby or kind of new in the hotlight.
- 33:30[SPEAKER_01]: They don't know that.
- 33:31[SPEAKER_01]: They don't understand that.
- 33:32[SPEAKER_01]: They just feel like, oh, seven days, you know, but those are those are huge factors in being able to get an extra maybe 10% out of a card.
- 33:41[SPEAKER_01]: And you talk about $1,000, $2,000, that's an extra couple hundred dollars.
- 33:45[SPEAKER_00]: Let's talk about this for a second.
- 33:46[SPEAKER_00]: If you all want to dive in on this, let's talk about in general when a mark like when a card market gets flooded with inventory.
- 33:54[SPEAKER_00]: You remember last year how we talked about supply and demand and how that drove the card market in thousand percent.
- 34:00[SPEAKER_00]: when there is a guy that is hot, and there are no cards out there to be bought, guess what that does.
- 34:07[SPEAKER_00]: Previous comps get blown out of the water.
- 34:10[SPEAKER_00]: When that same player is hot, and there's 15 of the same cards, guess what?
- 34:14[SPEAKER_00]: Now the same guy that's bidding on the other one that loses, it goes and buys the next one, and then the next one, and then all the sudden there's
- 34:25[SPEAKER_00]: And so I just think that that's something to think about as well.
- 34:29[SPEAKER_00]: I'm seeing this more and more and more where people are just dumping cards on top of somebody's market.
- 34:35[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think there's a worse strategy that you could operate under in this industry than piling your cards on top of 10 other light cards that are going.
- 34:42[SPEAKER_00]: Now if it's a base auto,
- 34:44[SPEAKER_00]: who, you know, okay.
- 34:46[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, who cares.
- 34:47[SPEAKER_00]: But if it is a gold or an old when I see five or six oranges at one time going, that is a strong, strong negative.
- 34:58[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
- 34:58[SPEAKER_03]: And I think it's also important that those that own those cards to before, you know, when deciding when to put them on, it's important to look at the pop, the pop count.
- 35:07[SPEAKER_03]: You know what I mean?
- 35:08[SPEAKER_03]: Like if you have a gold, same mechanical 1010, right?
- 35:12[SPEAKER_03]: Look, if it's a pop one, you know it's going to be one of the, you're not going to, you shouldn't have an issue, even if the market is flooded, if you're priced accordingly.
- 35:20[SPEAKER_03]: You know, if you have an orange of a guy, it's a pop two, guess what?
- 35:24[SPEAKER_03]: All the other oranges out there are going to be nines, you know, or eights.
- 35:27[SPEAKER_03]: So it's important to look at the pop count, also.
- 35:29[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely, one of the things is super interesting about this.
- 35:32[SPEAKER_01]: This reminds me of the episode we have at Brent when you're talking about so much of the market in the prospect game is speculative.
- 35:40[SPEAKER_01]: So everybody has the same idea by the guy early hold sell into debut or at debut, right?
- 35:47[SPEAKER_01]: But there's an interesting dynamic that happens with majorly baseball players where it moves from this guy is a prospect that we are speculating in to this guy is a collectible asset that we are holding.
- 35:59[SPEAKER_01]: Right?
- 36:00[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't know.
- 36:00[SPEAKER_01]: I haven't figured out when that move happens.
- 36:03[SPEAKER_01]: but you look at it.
- 36:04[SPEAKER_01]: You don't really see a lot of air and judge color.
- 36:06[SPEAKER_01]: You don't really see a lot of mic trout color rarely do you see Bobby Whitt color now.
- 36:11[SPEAKER_01]: And so at what point in time do you guys feel like a player moves from that prospect speculative to the performer into the collectible.
- 36:22[SPEAKER_01]: Does that make sense?
- 36:23[SPEAKER_00]: Like I feel like the transit we got we got the we got the perfect player to talk about here.
- 36:27[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, and I've been as negative on him as I have been on any player on the show.
- 36:33[SPEAKER_03]: Roman Anthony.
- 36:34[SPEAKER_00]: Yep, Roman Anthony.
- 36:35[SPEAKER_00]: There's your perfect example.
- 36:37[SPEAKER_03]: Roman Anthony source object for me.
- 36:39[SPEAKER_00]: or Roman Anthony's performance right now starting the season if he was still a prospect would mean that his prices would probably fall right because he is priced as though he is Bobby with junior almost at this point okay and he is batting 250 he's got not hitting for a lot of power he has not been what people would have hoped for his start right oh man Anthony though now has shown that no matter what he is doing people he has been hyped up enough
- 37:08[SPEAKER_00]: and he has gotten through that first year enough of a performance that he has gotten into year two that people are not considering him a prospect.
- 37:15[SPEAKER_00]: Now, they are literally Roman Anthony is now considered a superstar in this league after 400 debates or however many of bats he's had.
- 37:24[SPEAKER_00]: He has already being considered a superstar.
- 37:26[SPEAKER_00]: So I think in his case and some others, I think one year can do it.
- 37:31[SPEAKER_00]: Right.
- 37:31[SPEAKER_00]: Now, on the flip side of that, you take you guy like a hurldo per domo.
- 37:35[SPEAKER_00]: I bet you there's a lot of people going oh last year was a fluke right I mean so I think it's it's I think it is very dependent
- 37:42[SPEAKER_00]: on the player and almost the media do the WBC hyped up Roman Anthony more than I've ever heard any player ever be hyped up and so I think it's just really I would say if Connor comes out this year with the hype that he had and by the end of the year has a big year kind of like Roman did last year or a solid year I don't think that I don't think Connor's prices will be nearly as volatile the next year and
- 38:05[SPEAKER_01]: So, so here's a thought with like a guy like this, too, as you have to, this is something that Fasten makes me, like Connor specifically, and then you talk about my gottable, but These guys are 19, 20, 21 years old.
- 38:18[SPEAKER_01]: You know what I mean?
- 38:19[SPEAKER_01]: And you've got your judges in trout, too, or like what 32, 33 maybe?
- 38:23[SPEAKER_01]: I think show hey, 30, 31.
- 38:24[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you've got.
- 38:26[SPEAKER_01]: 10 to 15 years of future performance potential with some of these guys you know and that that's hard to wrap your head around you know the main that like he still could be playing and be elite MVP 12 years from now you know the main you've got a long window
- 38:43[SPEAKER_01]: to be able to kind of like look at this potential market.
- 38:46[SPEAKER_01]: And so to be reactive on it is it's just so tough at the same time to pay that kind of peak value.
- 38:52[SPEAKER_01]: Because there's I'm sure guys 12 years ago that we're young and they were thinking they were going to be everything.
- 38:56[SPEAKER_01]: And then they're not even in the league anymore, you know what I mean?
- 38:58[SPEAKER_01]: So it's a really hard space to navigate beyond us.
- 39:01[SPEAKER_00]: Guys, you think about this, this we forget this, think we need to, we need to, we need to say this publicly, okay, we need to say this for ourselves.
- 39:10[SPEAKER_00]: Most people don't even know who Jordan Walker is.
- 39:14[SPEAKER_00]: Most casual baseball fans don't even know who he is currently.
- 39:19[SPEAKER_00]: What percentage of Major League Baseball players current?
- 39:22[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to ask you this question directly current.
- 39:24[SPEAKER_00]: How, what honestly, if you were polling a hundred Major League Baseball fans?
- 39:28[SPEAKER_00]: How many of them know who Brady Houses?
- 39:30[SPEAKER_00]: Brady House, probably two percent.
- 39:32[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
- 39:32[SPEAKER_00]: His card market has gotten obliterated.
- 39:35[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, I've been talking about him a lot.
- 39:37[SPEAKER_03]: Major League Baseball fans probably more, but yeah.
- 39:40[SPEAKER_00]: He's batting 330.
- 39:41[SPEAKER_03]: Major League Baseball fans more.
- 39:43[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
- 39:43[SPEAKER_00]: He's batting 333.
- 39:44[SPEAKER_00]: He's the cornerstone third basement of that organization.
- 39:49[SPEAKER_00]: He was drafted top 10.
- 39:51[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
- 39:52[SPEAKER_00]: He was drafted top 10 in his results.
- 39:54[SPEAKER_00]: Do you realize that Brady House was like team USA, like superstar at 13, 14, 15, 16, 17.
- 40:02[SPEAKER_00]: This isn't some like under the radar prospect, but you know what the minor league baseball prospect in community did.
- 40:08[SPEAKER_00]: Oh,
- 40:08[SPEAKER_00]: he didn't do as well as we thought he would.
- 40:10[SPEAKER_00]: He sucks.
- 40:11[SPEAKER_00]: So he gets cut.
- 40:12[SPEAKER_00]: He's card market gets destroyed.
- 40:15[SPEAKER_00]: Now, all of a sudden he gets an opportunity.
- 40:18[SPEAKER_00]: He's sold in spring training.
- 40:20[SPEAKER_00]: Here he comes.
- 40:21[SPEAKER_00]: He's coming to the Major League Baseball season.
- 40:23[SPEAKER_00]: He's doing the same thing.
- 40:24[SPEAKER_00]: Guys, I think what the reality is.
- 40:26[SPEAKER_00]: You see, guys, even like Calarali, when that moment happens, guys like Jordan Walker, his price is already doubled.
- 40:33[SPEAKER_00]: Brady House's market is going to double
- 40:38[SPEAKER_03]: I do think that there is something in the card community, though, with Brady House, that I do think his value in the card market would be stronger if he did have a first auto.
- 40:50[SPEAKER_03]: That's just my feeling.
- 40:51[SPEAKER_03]: I think he's kind of forgotten about for that reason.
- 40:53[SPEAKER_01]: That's interesting.
- 40:54[SPEAKER_01]: And that's a big topic of debate.
- 40:55[SPEAKER_01]: We've talked about a number of times.
- 40:56[SPEAKER_01]: You know, you look at Walcott.
- 40:58[SPEAKER_01]: You look at some of the other, I'd say, Jackson Merrill and Brady House.
- 41:01[SPEAKER_01]: You know, that don't have true first orders, you know, but then again, show Hey, Otonne is the, I mean, he is the, and now, Bubba, can you just, can you just say the name that Matt just said, say it, Bubba?
- 41:12[SPEAKER_03]: What is that here, hope?
- 41:13[SPEAKER_03]: No, who is Matt just talking about?
- 41:15[SPEAKER_00]: Show Hey, show.
- 41:17[SPEAKER_03]: She'll have Tana.
- 41:18[SPEAKER_03]: Okay, go on.
- 41:19[SPEAKER_03]: That's all I had to say to that.
- 41:20[SPEAKER_01]: But shit, not only show Hey, doesn't have a first.
- 41:23[SPEAKER_01]: He's got two variations of his audit and every probably look at it.
- 41:27[SPEAKER_01]: It just blows it out of the water.
- 41:28[SPEAKER_01]: So it's such a weird conversation to have.
- 41:30[SPEAKER_01]: But Baba, I love your point about Brady House.
- 41:32[SPEAKER_01]: It's like he did not just figure out how to play baseball this year.
- 41:35[SPEAKER_01]: It's that he's just put the things together.
- 41:38[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I have a buddy of ours who was with the Boris Corp for years as a scout and he talks about all that these guys go through adjusting to pitching, you know, mean the pressure of the Biggs and all that's going to stuff and he's, I mean, you know, he's worked with a lot of these major prospects and he's like, do them telling you, this guy's a baseball player.
- 41:55[SPEAKER_01]: It's just a mental game right now, and those are the things that are going on in the background that from a hobby perspective, nobody's really thinking about nor do they care about, they're just looking at, oh my gosh, it's batting efforts sucks, you know, but current to your point, there's a lot of people in the hobby that once the hobby turns on you, once the hobby shuns you, once the hobby blacklist you or black balls you, you know, it's really hard for a guy's values to rebound.
- 42:22[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, really, really hard for a guy's vacer.
- 42:24[SPEAKER_01]: And then by the counterpoint to that is if you got a few people in the hobby that are riding high on some guys, you better get on the coat tails buddy.
- 42:32[SPEAKER_00]: Hey, who's also who's older guys, Jack Kaglioni or Brady House if you were guessing who's older, Kaglion.
- 42:38[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, Jack.
- 42:40[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he, he's 23 houses 22.
- 42:42[SPEAKER_00]: The difference is guys, these guys that are drafted out of high school, they have so much time in the minors.
- 42:51[SPEAKER_00]: that the prospect world for forget about them when you're coming out of college you better be in the pros at a college within what 12 to 18 months if you're getting the 24 25 26 it's hard to get it done when when you're 22 in your Brady house you're just now graduating college these are kids man these guys are just
- 43:14[SPEAKER_00]: So I do think we want to talk about buying opportunities, those are the guys when you're looking at first round draft picks, second round draft picks, and you can continue to look at those guys three, four years back.
- 43:25[SPEAKER_00]: They're buying opportunities there almost every major league baseball season.
- 43:29[SPEAKER_00]: Who's starting to figure it out?
- 43:31[SPEAKER_00]: Who is starting to put it together?
- 43:33[SPEAKER_00]: The talent is starting to meet the growth.
- 43:36[SPEAKER_03]: You know who I really, you know who I really like and I don't know if his market.
- 43:39[SPEAKER_03]: I got a well, I haven't looked at his market.
- 43:41[SPEAKER_03]: But I have to imagine that it's down, but I do like him is Kim Smith.
- 43:46[SPEAKER_03]: He's quietly doing his thing.
- 43:50[SPEAKER_00]: He's a byler.
- 43:57[SPEAKER_01]: He's a bitch for years though and you know what interesting too is like a guy like Kim Smith is going to rebound a heck a lot faster and Brady house because of what you just said mother He had a hundred and sixteen mile an hour four hundred and seventy foot home run.
- 44:10[SPEAKER_01]: That's what's so crazy to me is when you're in this hobby You can have a guy like Kevin McGonagall who it's I mean McGonagall is like
- 44:17[SPEAKER_01]: It's quietly feeling like Tony Glenn.
- 44:21[SPEAKER_01]: McGonagal is hitting the baseball in every single game against every single, like he's getting on with it.
- 44:27[SPEAKER_01]: I just think he's doing what he's doing now.
- 44:29[SPEAKER_03]: So we've come to the point that Kevin McGonagal is Tony quit.
- 44:33[SPEAKER_01]: No, I'm being fair.
- 44:35[SPEAKER_03]: I know what you're saying.
- 44:36[SPEAKER_03]: I know where you're saying.
- 44:37[SPEAKER_01]: I'm just saying to do the baseball, right?
- 44:40[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, see a lot of O for for him.
- 44:42[SPEAKER_01]: And he's not Tony Glen for the Lord.
- 44:46[SPEAKER_03]: I know that.
- 44:47[SPEAKER_03]: I know you're just messing with him.
- 44:48[SPEAKER_01]: You're laughing at me.
- 44:49[SPEAKER_01]: But my point being is that, but McGonagal is not going to go hit a 480 foot, 116 mile an hour rope.
- 44:58[SPEAKER_01]: And so I think McGonagal's market might kind of like, you know, steadily decline.
- 45:03[SPEAKER_03]: I agree with you.
- 45:04[SPEAKER_00]: It's going to go boom 100% agree with you on that the mechanical thing 100% I think that's a little bit reacted to you guys you know one thing we never talk about that we should give more credit to And I see it and this has happened so you know who got you know two players that got picked up yesterday I've already mentioned one of their names fantasy baseball leagues fantasy baseball drives recognition as well Cam Smith got picked up yesterday in the way of war in the league.
- 45:29[SPEAKER_00]: I mean
- 45:29[SPEAKER_00]: So did Jordan Walker.
- 45:30[SPEAKER_00]: As these guys start to see them and in fantasy baseball, that's when they start to know the name That's when this stuff.
- 45:37[SPEAKER_00]: They're they're looking at box scores.
- 45:39[SPEAKER_00]: They're looking at free agency wires They're they're checking ESPN.
- 45:43[SPEAKER_00]: They're checking the MLB network when those highlight start to hit bottom line is That's when the card market will reach on the rest of these guys because they're no longer prospects anymore They're no longer prospecting.
- 45:56[SPEAKER_00]: They're now mainstream major league baseball players
- 45:59[SPEAKER_00]: When you're in the mainstream, the news cycle is going to take you from there.
- 46:04[SPEAKER_00]: Magonigal is no longer a prospect.
- 46:06[SPEAKER_00]: Bottom line, he's a major league baseball player and from here, it's going to be how the mainstream gets his information out there.
- 46:14[SPEAKER_00]: Bottom line.
- 46:14[SPEAKER_01]: So I want to give, I want to give our listeners a little picture here, the big mat, I like analogies, I like pictures.
- 46:20[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm going to give our listeners a picture here.
- 46:22[SPEAKER_01]: This past weekend, my kids are older now, but I do, I still have a six year old daughter and so our neighborhood does a big Easter egg hunt.
- 46:28[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, they put all the kids together right and they're in the park and they're rising their dresses and stuff and all of a sudden they say go and all of the kids start running.
- 46:36[SPEAKER_01]: You know what I mean?
- 46:37[SPEAKER_01]: And all of them run to the one egg that they can see like right over here.
- 46:40[SPEAKER_01]: That's the hobby, man.
- 46:41[SPEAKER_01]: The hobby is so reactive to the one Easter egg that's like right in front of you.
- 46:46[SPEAKER_01]: And if you're smart, when everybody is digging under this one bush for this Easter egg,
- 46:51[SPEAKER_01]: You kind of go around the fringe, you know, to mean, and you go to the other areas of the hobby, you go to the other opportunities that are out there, and that's when you can really, really do well and kind of be a bit ahead of the game, and so it's interesting right now, you know, we had a plan and we played into that plan with these debuts or some of the names we've been dropping today.
- 47:10[SPEAKER_01]: And now, as the hobby is kind of fighting over all of this like whose latest, it's like we're kind of over here in the fringe, you know, planning the steps for the next the next rush the next gold rush.
- 47:23[SPEAKER_01]: So that's just that's the way I see it right now.
- 47:24[SPEAKER_01]: It's like everybody can talk about Jordan Walker James Wood or McGonagal or Connor or whatever, but like we've already moved on and I'm already thinking like D chess like I'm like three steps ahead like look into the next angle.
- 47:36[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, our next guy, everybody's looking for is in 26 draft.
- 47:40[SPEAKER_01]: 26 draft?
- 47:41[SPEAKER_01]: I know exactly who you're talking about.
- 47:44[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
- 47:44[SPEAKER_01]: Rock, rock, chop, Jay Hawk.
- 47:46[SPEAKER_03]: It's for another conversation.
- 47:48[SPEAKER_03]: I do think everybody's looking for the next guy.
- 47:50[SPEAKER_03]: I think he's 26 draft.
- 47:52[SPEAKER_03]: Like he's not there right now.
- 47:53[SPEAKER_03]: The next conner is not there right now to buy.
- 47:56[SPEAKER_03]: not to say they can't make money on guys if that's what your goal is.
- 47:59[SPEAKER_03]: But, you know, I think the next big guy, I think everybody trying to find that next big guy, I see a lot of people I feel like and that's when you start making purchases that are just like, it's just not, you get like purchases.
- 48:13[SPEAKER_03]: You get anxious and you want to be, you know, ahead of the curve and you want to be the first guy on somebody and you just kind of look to, you know, buy to buy and to try to be right and just doesn't work that way.
- 48:24[SPEAKER_01]: Well boys we're kind of reaching the the the time limit here of an hour we are keeping shows in that range you boys have any final thoughts literally.
- 48:31[SPEAKER_03]: I am just it's I'm happy to be back to the chat with you guys it's going to be back on the screen and see Matt's face unfortunately I can't see Bubba's face but it's good to talk some ball it's been a while
- 48:43[SPEAKER_00]: It's good to have you back buddy.
- 48:44[SPEAKER_00]: Glad to have you.
- 48:45[SPEAKER_00]: I'm current.
- 48:46[SPEAKER_00]: It's awesome to be able to have the three man.
- 48:48[SPEAKER_00]: It's be able to kind of like ham and egg this thing.
- 48:51[SPEAKER_00]: So to speak, ham, no, no pun intended their ham.
- 48:54[SPEAKER_00]: But it's just it's just cool to have you back and be able to talk baseball and dive in the deep realm of prospects that we get to do from here and who to buy and what to do next.
- 49:04[SPEAKER_00]: So, but I do want to echo what Kern you just said.
- 49:08[SPEAKER_00]: I think my best advice to anybody right now is I get these messages, I guess I got five of them in the last probably three days and I'll at the same message the last couple days who should I be buying who should I be buying yeah I'm telling you right now like what you should be doing is watching
- 49:26[SPEAKER_00]: for yourself right now.
- 49:27[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
- 49:27[SPEAKER_00]: What you should be doing is looking at by stores and not overreacting to said box scores and then let the next 30 days start compiling and writing your list down and putting your thoughts down because every single year as we get 30 games and 50 games and then we're going to know I mean then we're going to we're going to start knowing okay this is the direction away if we go but don't overreact in the first 11 games.
- 49:51[SPEAKER_00]: That is the, that's my advice today because if you look at those players that are in the top, you know, top 30 right now, Major League Baseball, there's maybe maybe only five to 10 of them are going to stick around there.
- 50:02[SPEAKER_03]: So don't know who you look at for the bottom of the list, middle pack bottom.
- 50:07[SPEAKER_00]: Yep.
- 50:07[SPEAKER_03]: You're very careful right now.
- 50:10[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to throw another little little ham bone ham house nugget out there.
- 50:14[SPEAKER_01]: You know, this is when we started getting into Jordan's 90s and search and vintage is because I got bored during the window between Jackson Holiday falling off.
- 50:27[SPEAKER_01]: James Wood falling off, Cheerio falling off, you know, back in the day, we kind of got bored.
- 50:32[SPEAKER_01]: We're like, all right, well, who's next?
- 50:34[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, there were you guys that were a couple of years were in on
- 50:40[SPEAKER_01]: And so that's where we went over here and played in the other sandbox and did really, really well for six months.
- 50:47[SPEAKER_01]: And then came back to the prospect game strong, you know, in the fall, you know, winter of last year.
- 50:53[SPEAKER_01]: And so I don't know, I just encourage people like broaden your horizon and the market, broaden your horizon and the hobby.
- 50:59[SPEAKER_01]: Because if you're only focused on, you know, to mean just prospecting or whatever, there's a lot of opportunity out there.
- 51:05[SPEAKER_01]: Just keep your eyes open toward.
- 51:07[SPEAKER_00]: Look, I'll give you another example here in the show.
- 51:09[SPEAKER_00]: Look how a guy, he has not taken a single it back.
- 51:13[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, look at his height market, and again, he was my number one prospect on my list heading into 2027.
- 51:19[SPEAKER_00]: It's what he was the number one guy on my list, Aiden Miller, okay?
- 51:23[SPEAKER_00]: Look, it was having to Aiden Miller's card value in the last 30 days, 45 days, because he hasn't taken it back.
- 51:29[SPEAKER_00]: Just because the kid has been hurt with the back injury, his golds, who were reaching almost PSA 10s, almost 4, 45 hundred, privately about 45 days ago, just bought one this last week for $2400.
- 51:43[SPEAKER_00]: Almost half.
- 51:46[SPEAKER_00]: because he didn't start the season the minor league.
- 51:48[SPEAKER_00]: That's the kind of overreaction that we're seeing in the last 30 days.
- 51:52[SPEAKER_00]: And so does that mean a Miller can't play because you got a little back injury?
- 51:56[SPEAKER_00]: Hell no.
- 51:56[SPEAKER_00]: The dudes are baller.
- 51:59[SPEAKER_00]: And so just keep, you know, be looking for those type of opportunities.
- 52:03[SPEAKER_03]: You know, we need to discuss next time.
- 52:05[SPEAKER_03]: We need to talk about all these long-term early contracts being given out to these prospects that haven't even played in the major leagues.
- 52:11[SPEAKER_03]: But that's that's a whole lot of their discussion.
- 52:13[SPEAKER_03]: But if we should talk about that, we'll have to buy some sauce on there.
- 52:16[SPEAKER_01]: It drives the hype.
- 52:17[SPEAKER_01]: That drives the hype on everything, too.
- 52:19[SPEAKER_01]: It's when somebody sees somebody signing up, you know, and it's not like everybody's like, oh, okay.
- 52:24[SPEAKER_01]: Well, this guy just signed a nine figure deal.
- 52:26[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I mean, adds into the mix.
- 52:28[SPEAKER_01]: Well, gentlemen, I know that we were all kind of, you know, this two other song Spring Break this week, coming back and cover, but it's great to have all three of us on a voice.
- 52:37[SPEAKER_01]: I appreciate you guys our listeners.
- 52:38[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you guys always for listening to the show for sharing this out.
- 52:41[SPEAKER_01]: And guys, you know, don't forget, we got the
- 52:48[SPEAKER_00]: next time you'll see me.
- 52:49[SPEAKER_00]: I'm a look.
- 52:49[SPEAKER_00]: I got pimple lumpa.
- 52:50[SPEAKER_00]: I'm gonna be all.
- 52:51[SPEAKER_00]: I'm gonna be as orange as Donald Trump.
- 52:53[SPEAKER_00]: Oh my gosh Oh my god, all right boy.
- 52:56[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you for tuning in to the fourth car.
- 52:58[SPEAKER_03]: When did it say guys when this when this when this episode gets 50% less viewership I'll see you again three months Ciao