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Conference Board's Franco on the June CCI Report (Audio) · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York Bloomberg eleven, Rio to Washington,
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  Speaker 1: d C. Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg, Well under It, to
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  Speaker 1: San Francisco Bloomberg nine to the country, US Exam General
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  Speaker 1: one nineteen and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio Plus
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  Speaker 1: append Bloomberg got on this is taking stock consumer confidence.
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  Speaker 1: It rose in June to an eight month high. I
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  Speaker 1: don't know if any Brexit impact was in there. We're
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  Speaker 1: gonna speaking with Lynn Franco, She's director of Economic Indicators
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  Speaker 1: at the conference Sport. I'm Kathleen Hayes, my co host
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  Speaker 1: Pim Fox on vacation this week, and that investor confidence,
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  Speaker 1: confidence in the stock market battered by the volatility from Brexit.
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  Speaker 1: How about the impact of the presidential race and the
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  Speaker 1: odds of who wins and who doesn't. What does that
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  Speaker 1: mean about investing in the capital markets? What does it
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  Speaker 1: mean for the broader global economy. We're gonna be think
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  Speaker 1: about all that and more in the next half hour.
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  Speaker 1: Now we're gonna be hearing from Catherine Caddie. She is
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  Speaker 1: in the newsroom with a bloom Brick business flash. Thank you, Kathleen. Well,
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  Speaker 1: the stock market is climbing for the first time since
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  Speaker 1: Britain voted to withdraw from the European Union. There's speculation
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  Speaker 1: that policy makers will take steps to limit any economic
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  Speaker 1: fallout the UK's decision last week twigger to rush towards
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  Speaker 1: safe Hagan's Global Equities lost about three point six trillion
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  Speaker 1: dollars in market value and the smp FA under tumbled
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  Speaker 1: five point Mark Hayfully, Global Chief Investment Office for at
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  Speaker 1: UBS Wealth Management, makes the case for diversification. We've had
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  Speaker 1: political uncertainty before these events, and we'll have them after.
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  Speaker 1: I think the main point for investors is that as
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  Speaker 1: we go further out into these experimental central bank policies
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  Speaker 1: and referendums, you have to be diversified. Diversified across political
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  Speaker 1: economic regimes in the world. We check the markets every
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  Speaker 1: fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. Down industrial average is
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  Speaker 1: of one hundred forty six point seven eights of a percent.
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  Speaker 1: Trading at seventeen thousand, two hundred eighty six, smp F
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  Speaker 1: I founded up twenty one points, a gain of one percent.
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  Speaker 1: It's trading at two thousand, twenty one nasac hire by
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  Speaker 1: sixty seven points one and a half percent. Trading at
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  Speaker 1: forty six sixty one West Texas Center via crude oil
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  Speaker 1: up a dollar fifty five of barrel three point three
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  Speaker 1: percent to forty seven eighty nine spout bill down six
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  Speaker 1: dollars ninety sents announced to thirteen seventeen eighty ten year
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  Speaker 1: treasury down six thirty seconds with the yield of one
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  Speaker 1: point four five percent. Among today's top business stories, Volkswagen
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  Speaker 1: has agreed to spend more than fifteen billion dollars to
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  Speaker 1: get hundreds of thousands of emissions cheating diesel vehicles off
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  Speaker 1: at US roads into playcate regulators. And now let's get
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  Speaker 1: a look at some of the other stories were following.
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  Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio. Thank you Catherine from the Bloomberg newsroom.
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  Speaker 1: I'm Julie Hyman. British Prime Minister David Cameron met with
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  Speaker 1: fellow European Union leaders today for the first time since
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  Speaker 1: last week's vote to leave the EU. Cameron says the
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  Speaker 1: UK may be breaking up with Europe, but he hopes
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  Speaker 1: they'll continue to do good business. I very much hope
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  Speaker 1: will seek the closest possible relationship in sums of trade
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  Speaker 1: and cooperation and security, because that is good for US.
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  Speaker 1: And that is good for them, and that's the spirit
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  Speaker 1: to wish the discussions I think will be held today.
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  Speaker 1: The British PM has indicated the UK could wait until
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  Speaker 1: October to begin the process, but European lawmakers are calling
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  Speaker 1: for an immediate exit as they try to call markets
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  Speaker 1: and prevent other countries from following suit. Scottish EU member
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  Speaker 1: Alan Smith says Scotland voted to remain in the EU
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  Speaker 1: and wants to keep it that way. Scotland did not
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  Speaker 1: let you down. Please, I thank you, chaper do not
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  Speaker 1: let Scotland turned no. Well. Many greeted Smith's remarks with
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  Speaker 1: a standing ovation. UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage, who
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  Speaker 1: had campaign for Brexit, remained seated. The winning is coach
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  Speaker 1: in Division one college basketball history has died. Former Tennessee
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  Speaker 1: coach Pat's Summit was sixty four years old. She had
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  Speaker 1: been battling dementia sum at one eight national championships. The
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  Speaker 1: city's rent Guidelines Board voted last night in favor of
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  Speaker 1: a monthly increase for stabilized apartments. The board approved to
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  Speaker 1: freeze for one year leases and a two percent increase
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  Speaker 1: on two year leases. Neither side was happy. Tenants were
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  Speaker 1: looking for a rent rollback, while landlords wanted increases on
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  Speaker 1: both one and two year leases. Global News twenty four
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  Speaker 1: hours a day, powered by more than twenty undred journalists
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  Speaker 1: and analysts in more than one hundred and twenty countries
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  Speaker 1: from the Bloomberg Newsroom. I'm Julie Hyman. This is Bloomberg, Catherine,
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  Speaker 1: Thank you, And now let's get a quick check of
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  Speaker 1: the equity markets. Down Industrial laverage of one hundred sixty
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  Speaker 1: nine points at seventeen thousand, three hundred nine smp F
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  Speaker 1: I founded up twenty three point at two thousand, twenty four.
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  Speaker 1: NASDAC higher by seventy three trading at forty six sixty seven.
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  Speaker 1: And that's a Bloomberg business flash. You're listening to taking
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  Speaker 1: stock with pin Box at Kathleen As on Bloomberg Radio.
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  Speaker 1: As Federal Reserve officials and investors who are bullish in
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  Speaker 1: the stock market continue to keep their fingers crossed. Where
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  Speaker 1: a consumer that were power the US economy to a
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  Speaker 1: higher rate of growth in the second quarter, a higher
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  Speaker 1: rate of growth in the second half. The focus is
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  Speaker 1: on consumer confidence today, very closely watched number from the
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  Speaker 1: conference board here in New York. It climbed to in
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  Speaker 1: June from a revised nine two point four in May.
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  Speaker 1: And there are some good signs within the report suggesting
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  Speaker 1: the consumers are feeling pretty good about the future. Here
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  Speaker 1: now to explain what's in the report, what it means
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  Speaker 1: we're spending for the economy. And Moore is Lynn Franco.
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  Speaker 1: She is Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board.
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  Speaker 1: Thanks for coming into daily and you're quite welcome. So
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  Speaker 1: there's two sub components. There's the present condition, what's going
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  Speaker 1: on in the economy now, and what do you expect
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  Speaker 1: for the future. How did those two indexes or indicase
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  Speaker 1: should I say, shake out? Well, we had a rebound
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  Speaker 1: in both, which is always good news in terms of
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  Speaker 1: the present situation. What we saw really was not so
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  Speaker 1: much sort of enhanced optimism as sort of a decline
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  Speaker 1: into pessimism a little bit sort of. I guess I
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  Speaker 1: would say we're consumers saying we're still cruising along more
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  Speaker 1: or less at the same speed. In terms of their expectations,
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  Speaker 1: they're cautiously more optimistic. We even had to bump up
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  Speaker 1: an income and I think that will bolde well for
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  Speaker 1: spending in the quarters to come. In fact, let's underscore
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  Speaker 1: that consumer expectations gauge looking at the next six months. UH.
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  Speaker 1: People are are are pushing that part to eighty four
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  Speaker 1: point five from seventy eight point five, and many condoms
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  Speaker 1: that I've spoken to say that if there is a
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  Speaker 1: one part of this report that correlates well to spending
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  Speaker 1: even more than present conditions, it's the expectations index. When
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  Speaker 1: you get a bump like that, it supports those who
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  Speaker 1: are saying, no, consumers, consumers doing a bit better now, right,
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  Speaker 1: And I think, you know, we're all sort of anticipating
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  Speaker 1: the second quarter consumer expenditure figures, which showed I think
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  Speaker 1: a bump up and consumers ending, and I think the
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  Speaker 1: fact that we see income expectations increasing now and it's
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  Speaker 1: you know, back to back two months, I think, you know, consumers,
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  Speaker 1: I mean, there's still gonna be a little cautious and
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  Speaker 1: they're spending decisions, but I think we're going to continue
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  Speaker 1: to see spending help boost GDP. Well, of course that's
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  Speaker 1: very important, isn't Because you're alluding to we did get
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  Speaker 1: the latest number on first one fact, to get the
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  Speaker 1: final one in the first quarter GDP number, UH, it
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  Speaker 1: was revised up to one point one percent from zero
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  Speaker 1: point eight. However, the all important personal consumption expenditures basically people,
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  Speaker 1: that's all the stuff you spend money on, was revised
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  Speaker 1: down to one and a half percent from one point
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  Speaker 1: nine percent. So all the more focused now on what's
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  Speaker 1: going on in the second quarter. Of course, June is
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  Speaker 1: the last month of the second quarter, right right, And
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  Speaker 1: I think early estimates are that we've had a nice
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  Speaker 1: bump up in the second quarter. Um. And so I
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  Speaker 1: think our you know, income expectations is running parallel to
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  Speaker 1: what we expect to see there. And you know, it
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  Speaker 1: just remains to see what happened, if there's any fall
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  Speaker 1: at with Brexit, if it calls any type of pullback
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  Speaker 1: and expectations, even though it might be very temporary. We've
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  Speaker 1: seen the market at least begin to bounce back today,
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  Speaker 1: so that's good news. UM. So that might be sort
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  Speaker 1: of a little headwind that confidence may face in the
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  Speaker 1: next month or so. Labor market, the big the key
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  Speaker 1: question is our jobs are more plentiful, are the same
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  Speaker 1: or hard to get a little bit of mixed back
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  Speaker 1: there too, Yes, And I think that's because we've seen
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  Speaker 1: a slow down and employment growth and some of our
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  Speaker 1: other indicators show that that's going to persist. I think
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  Speaker 1: it's still be enough to support confidence levels. And we're
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  Speaker 1: seeing you know, ways growth as well, so that will
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  Speaker 1: help support confidence and consumption. As you oversee the Conference
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  Speaker 1: boards US Consumer Confidence report, I know you're also watching
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  Speaker 1: consumer confidence around the world. What does the Conference Board
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  Speaker 1: expect to see in the UK when it comes to
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  Speaker 1: consumer confidence when it comes to business confidence, one can
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  Speaker 1: only imagine that once you do the surveys after the vote,
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  Speaker 1: you could have some gigantic drops a lutely, and I
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  Speaker 1: think any time that you have uncertainty, that impacts both
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  Speaker 1: you know, consumer confidence and business confidence much more pronounced
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  Speaker 1: obviously in Europe than it is right here in the
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  Speaker 1: United States. So I think we're sort of okay for
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  Speaker 1: the time being. We'll see, obviously confidence both consumer and
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  Speaker 1: business take a hit, probably in in the euro Area
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  Speaker 1: and in the UK as well as for the US
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  Speaker 1: survey UM buying plans. What stands out to from that
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  Speaker 1: part of the survey. I think we're sort of moving
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  Speaker 1: a little bit sideways there. I mean, you know, we
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  Speaker 1: do have sort of our month to month fluctuations. However,
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  Speaker 1: I think we're a little bit stronger than we were
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  Speaker 1: last year, and I think that's directly due to the
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  Speaker 1: housing market. We continue to see improvements there, and obviously
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  Speaker 1: if consumers buy a home, they have to furnish a home.
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  Speaker 1: So I think the outlook for that particular area remains
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  Speaker 1: quite positive. Know, the Federal Reserve watches this survey, this
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  Speaker 1: report very closely. Uh what what do you think they'll
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  Speaker 1: be taking away from this? No chance of rate hike
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  Speaker 1: this year is now at the markets, and there's now
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  Speaker 1: that people are on the fringes starting to talk about
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  Speaker 1: a right cut. Right. I think what we're gonna see
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  Speaker 1: is no rate increases this year. If anything, the earliest
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  Speaker 1: would be December. But with all the all the uncertainty
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  Speaker 1: that's evolved over the last week or so, I don't
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  Speaker 1: think the Fed is going to raise anytime soon. Maybe
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  Speaker 1: you should do a survey just of Fed officials, get
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  Speaker 1: their get their confidence index. That would be quite interesting, Okay,
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  Speaker 1: I think it would do well. Lynn Frankel, you work
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  Speaker 1: on that, Okay. Well, she's director of Economic Indicators at
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  Speaker 1: the Conference Board based here in New York City. June
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  Speaker 1: consumer confidence sitting an eight month high and says it's
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  Speaker 1: it's steadily moving along. No big move towards a higher
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  Speaker 1: level of confidence, but high enough to ensure pretty much
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  Speaker 1: or at least suggest that spending could hold up in
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  Speaker 1: the second quarter and do better than the first quarter.
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  Speaker 1: I'm Cathleen Hayes pim Fox on vacation this week, so
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  Speaker 1: I'm taking stock today right here on Bloomberg Radio. The
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: presidential race. If Donald Trump wins, what does that mean
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: for the stock market? Off Hillary Clinton winds? What does
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  Speaker 1: that mean? Ken Fisher had of Fisher investments? Coming up
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  Speaker 1: now on Bloomberg Radio.