Latest / Omni Talk Retail / Consumer Spending Reality Check & Why Trade-Down Behavior Is Here to Stay with A&M's Chad Lusk | 5IM
Transcript
- 0:00Foreign.
- 0:09Minutes
- 0:09is
- 0:10longtime
- 0:10friend
- 0:10of
- 0:10the
- 0:10show
- 0:11and
- 0:11a
- 0:11frequent
- 0:11recurring
- 0:12guest
- 0:12and
- 0:12partner
- 0:13and
- 0:14managing
- 0:14director
- 0:14at
- 0:14the
- 0:14A
- 0:15and
- 0:15M
- 0:15Consumer
- 0:15and
- 0:15Retail
- 0:16Group,
- 0:16Chad
- 0:16Lusk.
- 0:17Chad
- 0:17will
- 0:17be
- 0:17discussing
- 0:17with
- 0:18us
- 0:18the
- 0:18results
- 0:18of
- 0:18A&M
- 0:19CRG's
- 0:20most
- 0:20recent
- 0:20biannual
- 0:21consumer
- 0:22sentiment
- 0:22survey
- 0:23report.
- 0:23The
- 0:23report
- 0:23draws
- 0:24from
- 0:24a
- 0:24survey
- 0:24of
- 0:24over
- 0:252,100
- 0:27demographically
- 0:27representative
- 0:28U.S.
- 0:28adults
- 0:29and
- 0:29analyzes
- 0:30how
- 0:30shifting
- 0:30economic
- 0:30conditions,
- 0:31among
- 0:31other
- 0:31purchase
- 0:32trends,
- 0:33are
- 0:33shaping
- 0:33consumer
- 0:34behaviors.
- 0:34Chad,
- 0:35let's
- 0:36start
- 0:36with
- 0:36this.
- 0:36In
- 0:37the
- 0:37latest
- 0:37report.
- 0:37I
- 0:38was,
- 0:38I
- 0:38was
- 0:38quite
- 0:39frankly
- 0:39shocked.
- 0:41Your
- 0:41report
- 0:41says
- 0:42that
- 0:42consumers
- 0:42are
- 0:43indicating
- 0:43an
- 0:43intent
- 0:44to
- 0:44spend
- 0:45more
- 0:45money
- 0:45in
- 0:46the
- 0:46upcoming
- 0:46six
- 0:47month
- 0:47period.
- 0:47How
- 0:48should
- 0:48we
- 0:48look
- 0:48at
- 0:49this
- 0:49apparent
- 0:49increase
- 0:50in
- 0:50optimism?
- 0:51Yeah,
- 0:51let's
- 0:52be
- 0:52careful
- 0:52about
- 0:52using
- 0:53that
- 0:53word
- 0:53optimism,
- 0:54okay?
- 0:55It's
- 0:55cautious
- 0:56at
- 0:56best.
- 0:57As
- 0:57you
- 0:57said
- 0:57Chris,
- 0:57we
- 0:58did
- 0:58see
- 0:58a
- 0:58bump
- 0:59in
- 0:59consumers
- 1:00intend
- 1:00to
- 1:00spend
- 1:00more
- 1:01this
- 1:01fall
- 1:01to
- 1:02the
- 1:02tune
- 1:02of
- 1:02800bps.
- 1:03Actually
- 1:03that's
- 1:03the
- 1:04single
- 1:05largest
- 1:06cycle
- 1:06to
- 1:06cycle
- 1:07jump
- 1:07we've
- 1:07had
- 1:07since
- 1:08spring
- 1:08of
- 1:0823.
- 1:09However,
- 1:10however,
- 1:11a
- 1:11few
- 1:11things
- 1:12to
- 1:12note
- 1:12about
- 1:12that.
- 1:13It's
- 1:14heavily,
- 1:14heavily
- 1:15driven
- 1:15by
- 1:16higher
- 1:16household
- 1:16income
- 1:17earners.
- 1:17As
- 1:18under
- 1:18$100,000
- 1:20income
- 1:20households
- 1:21still
- 1:21have
- 1:21a
- 1:21-9
- 1:23net
- 1:23intent
- 1:23to
- 1:24spend
- 1:24more
- 1:24this
- 1:24period.
- 1:25In
- 1:26spring
- 1:26of
- 1:2623
- 1:26it
- 1:27was
- 1:27similar,
- 1:27but
- 1:28those
- 1:28higher
- 1:29earners
- 1:29had
- 1:29what
- 1:30I'd
- 1:30call
- 1:30recession
- 1:31fatigue.
- 1:32Right.
- 1:32A
- 1:32bit
- 1:32of
- 1:33enough
- 1:33is
- 1:34enough
- 1:34and
- 1:34a
- 1:35need
- 1:35to
- 1:35get
- 1:35back
- 1:35to
- 1:36a
- 1:37custom
- 1:37lifestyles
- 1:38despite
- 1:38economic
- 1:39concerns.
- 1:40Then
- 1:40it
- 1:40snapped
- 1:41right
- 1:41back,
- 1:41actually
- 1:42lower.
- 1:43So
- 1:43it's
- 1:43a
- 1:43different
- 1:44flavor
- 1:44this
- 1:44time.
- 1:45Right.
- 1:45So
- 1:45first
- 1:45of
- 1:46all,
- 1:46across
- 1:46all
- 1:46consumers,
- 1:47food
- 1:47and
- 1:47beverage
- 1:48is
- 1:48actually
- 1:48the
- 1:49only
- 1:49positive
- 1:50category
- 1:51on
- 1:51a
- 1:51net
- 1:52intend
- 1:52to
- 1:52spend
- 1:52more
- 1:53where
- 1:53consumers
- 1:54plan
- 1:54to
- 1:54spend
- 1:54less
- 1:55in
- 1:55every
- 1:55other
- 1:56category
- 1:57with
- 1:57our
- 1:57higher
- 1:58earners
- 1:58there's
- 1:59a
- 1:59few
- 1:59more
- 2:00positive
- 2:00categories,
- 2:01but
- 2:01still
- 2:01a
- 2:01very
- 2:02strong
- 2:02bias
- 2:03to
- 2:03prioritize
- 2:04basic
- 2:05needs.
- 2:05Back
- 2:06in
- 2:0623
- 2:07we
- 2:07saw
- 2:07some
- 2:07discretionary
- 2:08areas
- 2:09pop
- 2:09experiences
- 2:10indulgences
- 2:12this
- 2:12cycle
- 2:12the
- 2:12message
- 2:13is
- 2:13clear.
- 2:13Keep
- 2:14discretionary
- 2:15spending
- 2:15down.
- 2:16And
- 2:16further
- 2:17to
- 2:17that,
- 2:18just
- 2:18because
- 2:18consumers
- 2:19expect
- 2:19to
- 2:19spend
- 2:20more
- 2:20doesn't
- 2:20mean
- 2:20they're
- 2:21gonna
- 2:21buy
- 2:21more.
- 2:21Right?
- 2:22So
- 2:22even
- 2:22in
- 2:23food
- 2:23and
- 2:23grocery.
- 2:24Right.
- 2:24Nearly
- 2:2560%
- 2:25of
- 2:26consumers
- 2:26believe
- 2:27tariffs
- 2:27have
- 2:27contributed
- 2:28double
- 2:28digit
- 2:29price
- 2:29increases
- 2:30on
- 2:30food.
- 2:31Actually
- 2:31over
- 2:3120%
- 2:32say
- 2:3230
- 2:32plus
- 2:33percent
- 2:33price
- 2:33increases
- 2:34and
- 2:35over
- 2:3540%
- 2:36of
- 2:36respondents
- 2:36say
- 2:37that
- 2:37they've
- 2:37decreased
- 2:38grocery
- 2:38purchases
- 2:39because
- 2:39of
- 2:39them.
- 2:40Right.
- 2:40So
- 2:40our
- 2:41spend
- 2:41expectations
- 2:42only
- 2:42up
- 2:43because
- 2:43price
- 2:43expectations
- 2:44are
- 2:44up
- 2:45likely
- 2:46as
- 2:46consumers
- 2:46are
- 2:47changing
- 2:48a
- 2:48lot
- 2:48of
- 2:48behaviors
- 2:49and
- 2:49finding
- 2:49ways
- 2:50to
- 2:50counteract
- 2:50inflation
- 2:51to
- 2:51spend
- 2:51less.
- 2:52So
- 2:52then
- 2:52Chad,
- 2:53if
- 2:53consumers
- 2:53are
- 2:54still
- 2:54trying
- 2:55to
- 2:55stretch
- 2:55their
- 2:56wallets
- 2:56as
- 2:56you're
- 2:56suggesting,
- 2:57how
- 2:58are
- 2:58we
- 2:58expecting
- 2:59that
- 2:59they'll
- 2:59Plan
- 3:00to
- 3:00do
- 3:00that.
- 3:00Cheaper
- 3:01brands,
- 3:01cheaper
- 3:02stores
- 3:02and
- 3:02buying
- 3:03less.
- 3:03Right.
- 3:05So
- 3:05across
- 3:05beauty
- 3:06and
- 3:06personal
- 3:06care,
- 3:07about
- 3:0740%
- 3:08of
- 3:08those
- 3:08who
- 3:08plan
- 3:08to
- 3:09spend
- 3:09less
- 3:09on
- 3:09the
- 3:10category
- 3:11say
- 3:11they're
- 3:11planning
- 3:11to
- 3:12switch
- 3:12to
- 3:12cheaper
- 3:13brands.
- 3:13That
- 3:14gets
- 3:14over
- 3:1450%
- 3:15for
- 3:15grocery
- 3:17skews
- 3:17higher
- 3:18income.
- 3:19Over
- 3:1980%
- 3:20of
- 3:20higher
- 3:20income
- 3:21earners
- 3:21told
- 3:21us
- 3:22that
- 3:22they
- 3:23buy
- 3:23private
- 3:24label
- 3:25somewhat
- 3:25or
- 3:25very
- 3:26often.
- 3:27Then
- 3:27the
- 3:27other
- 3:27big
- 3:27factor
- 3:28is
- 3:28about
- 3:2830%
- 3:29of
- 3:29those
- 3:30planning
- 3:30to
- 3:30spend
- 3:30less
- 3:31on
- 3:31a
- 3:31category
- 3:32are
- 3:32doing
- 3:32it
- 3:32by
- 3:33switching
- 3:33to
- 3:33lower
- 3:33priced
- 3:34stores
- 3:34across
- 3:35beauty,
- 3:36personal
- 3:36care,
- 3:37grocery,
- 3:37perhaps
- 3:38disrupting
- 3:39their
- 3:39entire
- 3:40ingrained
- 3:41routines
- 3:41at
- 3:41this
- 3:42point.
- 3:42Yet
- 3:42still
- 3:43get
- 3:43this,
- 3:4458%
- 3:45of
- 3:45our
- 3:45respondents
- 3:46reported
- 3:46that
- 3:46they've
- 3:47increased
- 3:47trips
- 3:48to
- 3:48lower
- 3:49priced
- 3:49stores
- 3:50somewhat
- 3:50or
- 3:50more
- 3:50often
- 3:51this
- 3:51past
- 3:51cycle
- 3:52alone.
- 3:52Again
- 3:53that
- 3:53also
- 3:53over
- 3:54indexes
- 3:54in
- 3:54higher
- 3:55income
- 3:55earners.
- 3:56So
- 3:56maybe
- 3:56it
- 3:56was
- 3:56initially
- 3:57reluctant,
- 3:58you
- 3:58know,
- 3:58maybe
- 3:58they
- 3:59were
- 3:59uncomfortable
- 3:59doing
- 4:00so.
- 4:00But
- 4:00we
- 4:00have
- 4:01a
- 4:01bunch
- 4:01of
- 4:01data
- 4:01in
- 4:02the
- 4:02report
- 4:03to
- 4:03show
- 4:03how
- 4:03lower
- 4:04priced
- 4:04retailers
- 4:05are
- 4:05performing
- 4:05compared
- 4:06to
- 4:06traditional.
- 4:07It's
- 4:07actually
- 4:07quite
- 4:07impressive.
- 4:09May
- 4:09be
- 4:09good
- 4:09enough
- 4:09to
- 4:09change
- 4:10consumers
- 4:10behavior
- 4:11permanently.
- 4:11So
- 4:12Chad,
- 4:12I'm
- 4:12curious
- 4:12and
- 4:13for
- 4:13the
- 4:13retailers
- 4:14and
- 4:14the
- 4:14CPGs
- 4:14in
- 4:15the
- 4:15audience,
- 4:15what
- 4:16lessons
- 4:16should
- 4:16we
- 4:17take
- 4:17overall
- 4:17from
- 4:17the
- 4:17report?
- 4:19I
- 4:19think
- 4:20one
- 4:20of
- 4:20the
- 4:20biggest
- 4:20things
- 4:21unfolding
- 4:21right
- 4:22now
- 4:22is
- 4:22the
- 4:22strength
- 4:23of
- 4:23private
- 4:23label
- 4:24for
- 4:24both
- 4:24retailers
- 4:25who
- 4:25can
- 4:25invest
- 4:26behind
- 4:26these
- 4:26programs
- 4:27and
- 4:27CPGs
- 4:28who
- 4:28need
- 4:28to
- 4:29strengthen
- 4:29and
- 4:29defend
- 4:29against
- 4:30them.
- 4:31Private
- 4:31labels
- 4:32are
- 4:32brands,
- 4:33right.
- 4:33They
- 4:33no
- 4:33longer
- 4:34stand
- 4:34for
- 4:34generic,
- 4:35they
- 4:35stand
- 4:35for
- 4:35strength.
- 4:37One
- 4:37of
- 4:37the
- 4:37most
- 4:37interesting
- 4:38charts
- 4:38that
- 4:38we
- 4:38have
- 4:39in
- 4:39the
- 4:39report
- 4:39compares
- 4:40consumer
- 4:41perceptions
- 4:42of
- 4:42store
- 4:42brands.
- 4:43So
- 4:43private
- 4:43label
- 4:44against
- 4:44national
- 4:45brands
- 4:45in
- 4:45food
- 4:46and
- 4:46beverage.
- 4:47Yeah,
- 4:47they're
- 4:47more
- 4:48affordable
- 4:48of
- 4:48course,
- 4:49but
- 4:50consumers
- 4:50recognize
- 4:51their
- 4:51quality.
- 4:52Right.
- 4:52Like
- 4:5268%
- 4:54said
- 4:54store
- 4:54brands
- 4:55offer
- 4:55quality
- 4:56that
- 4:56is
- 4:56as
- 4:57good
- 4:57or
- 4:57better.
- 4:5860%
- 4:59said
- 5:00they
- 5:00provide
- 5:00unique
- 5:01and
- 5:01preferable
- 5:02flavors
- 5:03and
- 5:03offerings.
- 5:0466%
- 5:05said
- 5:05that
- 5:05they
- 5:05meet
- 5:06their
- 5:06dietary
- 5:07or
- 5:07lifestyle
- 5:07needs.
- 5:08Those
- 5:09are
- 5:09all
- 5:09the
- 5:09reasons
- 5:10why
- 5:10consumers
- 5:10switch
- 5:11brands.
- 5:11To
- 5:12save
- 5:12money
- 5:12to
- 5:13experiment
- 5:13and
- 5:13have
- 5:13something
- 5:14unique
- 5:15and
- 5:15because
- 5:15of
- 5:15the
- 5:15ingredient
- 5:16panel.
- 5:16Right.
- 5:17So
- 5:17the
- 5:18gap
- 5:18is
- 5:18closed
- 5:19and
- 5:19consumers
- 5:20don't
- 5:20have
- 5:20to
- 5:20make
- 5:20those
- 5:21same
- 5:21kind
- 5:21of
- 5:21sacrifices.
- 5:22So
- 5:23lesson
- 5:24you
- 5:24know,
- 5:24brands
- 5:25that
- 5:25are
- 5:25doing
- 5:25well
- 5:26offer
- 5:26tremendous
- 5:27value
- 5:28at
- 5:28an
- 5:28opening
- 5:28price
- 5:29point
- 5:29or
- 5:30have
- 5:30tangible
- 5:30benefits
- 5:31that
- 5:31the
- 5:31consumers
- 5:32will
- 5:32spend
- 5:32up
- 5:32to
- 5:33get.
- 5:33It's
- 5:34that
- 5:34very
- 5:34large
- 5:35middle
- 5:36tier
- 5:36that's
- 5:36that's
- 5:37getting
- 5:37squeezed.
- 5:38Chad,
- 5:38I
- 5:38have
- 5:38to
- 5:38ask
- 5:39then
- 5:39what,
- 5:40what
- 5:40does
- 5:40this
- 5:40mean
- 5:40for
- 5:40holiday?
- 5:41We
- 5:41talked
- 5:42a
- 5:42lot
- 5:42about
- 5:42food
- 5:42and
- 5:42beverage
- 5:43but
- 5:44like
- 5:44what,
- 5:44where,
- 5:45where
- 5:45should
- 5:45we
- 5:45net
- 5:45out?
- 5:46Where
- 5:46should
- 5:46we
- 5:46expect
- 5:46that
- 5:46consumers
- 5:47will
- 5:47net
- 5:47out
- 5:47this
- 5:47holiday
- 5:48season?
- 5:48Yeah.
- 5:48Overall
- 5:49our
- 5:49respondents
- 5:50are
- 5:50saying
- 5:50about
- 5:50flat
- 5:51to
- 5:51last
- 5:51year.
- 5:53The
- 5:53last
- 5:53few
- 5:53years
- 5:53have
- 5:54been
- 5:54up
- 5:543
- 5:54to
- 5:554%.
- 5:56NRF's
- 5:56projecting
- 5:57that
- 5:57as
- 5:57well.
- 5:58I'd
- 5:58say
- 5:58that's
- 5:58likely
- 5:59to
- 5:59be
- 5:59the
- 5:59case
- 5:59since
- 6:00retail
- 6:00sales
- 6:01are
- 6:01tracking
- 6:01about
- 6:024%
- 6:02up
- 6:03on
- 6:03the
- 6:04year,
- 6:05about
- 6:05flat
- 6:06to
- 6:061%
- 6:06in
- 6:07real,
- 6:07real
- 6:07growth
- 6:08with
- 6:08the
- 6:09latest
- 6:09PCE
- 6:09report
- 6:10at
- 6:103%
- 6:11inflation.
- 6:12Listen,
- 6:12holiday
- 6:13in
- 6:13a
- 6:13lot
- 6:13of
- 6:13ways
- 6:14falls
- 6:14into
- 6:14these
- 6:15kind
- 6:15of
- 6:15routinely
- 6:16budgeted
- 6:16essentials
- 6:17category
- 6:17at
- 6:18this
- 6:18point.
- 6:18In
- 6:18a
- 6:18way
- 6:18like
- 6:19I
- 6:19need
- 6:19to
- 6:19buy
- 6:20for
- 6:20my
- 6:20kids,
- 6:20my
- 6:21partner,
- 6:21my
- 6:21family,
- 6:22whomever
- 6:23consumers
- 6:24are
- 6:24telling
- 6:24us
- 6:24they
- 6:25want
- 6:25to
- 6:25spend
- 6:25a
- 6:26of
- 6:26money
- 6:26lot
- 6:26a
- 6:26little
- 6:26less
- 6:27in
- 6:27doing
- 6:27so
- 6:27keep
- 6:28it
- 6:28reasonable,
- 6:29a
- 6:29little
- 6:30down
- 6:30on
- 6:30things
- 6:30like
- 6:31holiday
- 6:31decorations
- 6:32and
- 6:32entertainment.
- 6:34But
- 6:34as
- 6:34it
- 6:34plays
- 6:35out,
- 6:35the
- 6:35holiday
- 6:35season
- 6:36is
- 6:36a
- 6:36little
- 6:36impulsive
- 6:37too.
- 6:37Right?
- 6:37It's
- 6:38like
- 6:38candy
- 6:38at
- 6:38the
- 6:39checkout
- 6:39aisle.
- 6:39You
- 6:40didn't
- 6:40plan
- 6:40to
- 6:41buy
- 6:41that
- 6:41candy
- 6:41bar,
- 6:42but
- 6:42you're
- 6:42there,
- 6:42it
- 6:43looks
- 6:43good
- 6:43and
- 6:43it's
- 6:43going
- 6:44to
- 6:44make
- 6:44someone
- 6:44happy,
- 6:45in
- 6:45that
- 6:45case,
- 6:46yourself.
- 6:47That
- 6:47might
- 6:47even
- 6:47be
- 6:47why
- 6:48our
- 6:48respondents
- 6:48are
- 6:49saying
- 6:49they
- 6:49plan
- 6:49to
- 6:49spend
- 6:50a
- 6:50little
- 6:50net
- 6:50more
- 6:51on
- 6:51gifts
- 6:51to
- 6:51their
- 6:51self
- 6:52this
- 6:52year
- 6:52because
- 6:52of
- 6:53that
- 6:53behavior.
- 6:54But
- 6:55listen,
- 6:55it's
- 6:55November.
- 6:56Most
- 6:56orders
- 6:57have
- 6:57been
- 6:57made
- 6:58and
- 6:58shipments
- 6:59sent.
- 7:00So
- 7:01keep
- 7:01on
- 7:01top
- 7:01of
- 7:01your
- 7:02sales
- 7:02signals,
- 7:03manage
- 7:03your
- 7:03inventory
- 7:04promos
- 7:05and
- 7:05markdowns
- 7:06and
- 7:06hopefully
- 7:07we
- 7:07cross
- 7:07that
- 7:07trillion
- 7:08dollar
- 7:08mark
- 7:08for
- 7:08holiday
- 7:09retail
- 7:09sales
- 7:09this
- 7:10year.
- 7:10Hopefully.
- 7:11All
- 7:11right,
- 7:11thanks,
- 7:12Chad.