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MMA DFS - FIGHT NIGHT | 8/23/25 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: All systems gone clear the lift off. What's up, everybody?
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: We are back with another episode of the Ship in
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Nation m M A podcast. I'm here with sheets this
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: time title went on vacation for a China card and
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: left me with all these names to try and pronounce.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: We're gonna do our best, but I'm glad that we
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: got Sheets here to bounce some ideas off. I think
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: it's a really tough card. I'm definitely gonna target the
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: main event heavily, but I'm hoping you can talk me
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: into some less chalky spots than I'm right thinking originally.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: But uh, how you feel in the night sheets?
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: Good? Well, first of all, I mean, let's let's let's
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: really think about what's important. Here is the start time,
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: so it's it's three a m. Eastern time, like Saturday,
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: so it's it's basically midnight Friday and Saturday Pacific three
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: a m. Eastern so like the main card is like
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: five thirty. So you're gonna actually have you know, double
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: action between you know, Legal Legends from China and M
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: M A from China, like all probably going at the
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: same time. It's definitely it, you know, challenges the DFS player. Uh,
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: in a lot of different ways, and I'm wondering if
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: there's gonna be even extra ownership to the later fights, okay,
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: because I think there's a I see, I don't know
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: how people's sleep schedule works. Like in the poker world,
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: people would stay up till like five in the morning,
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean. I think that in DFS
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: world people are a little bit more mature. I think
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: there's a better chance than maybe them getting up at
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: five thirty in the morning than staying up till five thirty.
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: So if people get up at five thirty, they'll at
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: least be able to get up for the main card.
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: So I'm tempted to think that all else being equal,
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: the main card is probably gonna be even higher owned
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: than it would have been otherwise. And we already have
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: two five round fights. Okay, so that's openers. And the
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: other thing I would say about about this type of
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: card two things. Number One, whenever you have fighters that
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: very few people have heard of, there's always a lot
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: of variance in those fights, okay, just because nobody knows. Listen,
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: the odds are what they are, but there's just there's
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: just a lot of variants, which means that in GPPs,
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: you're probably gonna have to play it, okay. And the
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: other thing to think about as far as that goes,
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: is variance goes both ways. You know, some it's not
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: just okay, a minus two hundred favorite might actually be
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: pick them. It also could mean that a minus two
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: hundred favorite could look like they're minus nine hundred, okay.
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: So so variance with these unknowns kind of goes a
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: lot of different ways. And then my last bit about
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: that is if you do find guys that people have
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: heard of that have played before, those guys are gonna
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: be even higher on than they would have been otherwise.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: Like you look at some of these guys. I mean
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: we've played Pavlovich and Costo a Coorset has before, you know,
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: all the main the main event obviously strowing or take.
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: We've played the mazillion times and we've even played Summadergy
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: and Borjas. You know. So these guys, whatever they would
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: be otherwise, I think they're gonna be higher on anyway
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: because there's a little bit of comfort level in at
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: least knowing what you're getting with these guys.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's true, and I mean people want to sweat
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: their actions so wake up at five o'clock and then
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: get to see it. Yeah, I didn't think about any
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: of that stuff yet. I kind of ran through a
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: quick ownership before we got on. I got a lot
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: to do with it still. But yeah, we haven't gotten
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: to the card yet. You already got me thinking about stuff,
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: so this should be a good one. I'm looking forward
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: to it.
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: You want to get right, Yeah, I will say that
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: I do have and I don't get takes too much.
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: But I have a I have a couple of guys.
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: I have a couple of stands that I want to
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: I want to make that we'll get to that I
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: know people might not like. But but what we'll get to.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: I don't really have too many stands. I might have
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: some anti stands, but I might be able to guess
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: them as we get as we go along. But uh,
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: I do I do like this first fight of the
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: night quite a bit for DFS, more so because I
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: don't really trust either side of it. But we have
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: here we go with the names? Uh you Uran Sati
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Baldiev against Dr Nerso guy?
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: Of course, how else would you pronounce? Right?
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: I don't know we need title here. I would like
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: to hear how he said. I usually say whatever he says,
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: and then that way, if someone else will say anything
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: in the comments, I can say, well, it's title is full.
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: I just just want to make sure to not get
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: canceled after this, you know what I mean. I just
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: want to make sure I don't say anything stupid.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: That's true, that's true, but we got Wow. I was
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: the line one forty five on this. This was a
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: lot wider earlier in the week when I did this
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: one Saddy Baldai have, I want to say, it was
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: like over minus two hundred. Now he is minus minus
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: one thirty on some sites against a plus one ten
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: for NERD Goose And then we don't have an it
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: D line on this one yet, but we do have
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: an under two and a half sitting at pick on
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: minus one fifteen both ways. And I think this one
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: is close because either one of them could score well
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: with a finish, and it could be a knockout on
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: the feet because they are i'd say both okay strikers,
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: and they're both hit able at the same time. But
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: I think that if one of them gets a takedown,
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: it gets into control, it could be over from there.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: I think it could be ground to pound stoppage from
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: either one, just because they're both big guys, and they're
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: also both unproven as well. If we get a fifteen
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: minute striking match, I don't want anything to do with
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: this fight, but I'm gonna play it more based on
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: the it D line, so I'll wait for that to
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: come out, but I'm expecting a stoppage on either side
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: of this one. With a new line at minus one
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: forty five, I would guess that Salte Biden Baldaev is
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: going to be low owned at that line, and then
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Nergose is going to be pretty chalky. So I'm gonna
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: go the opposite way on this one. I like Sadi
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: Baldeev as the lower owned one. I think he can
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: get the takedown. I think he has the Chrisper hands
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: against Ergose's kicks, and then it's just whoever can get
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: the takedowns. I think Sadi Baldev is just a little
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: bit scarier with his ground and pounds, so I'm leaning
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: with him as my pick. But both of them are
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: good DFS plays. What are you thinking on this one?
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: The fact you had actual, like substantive takes on these
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: guys is actually quite amazing. You know, I have to
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: I have to be honest. You know, when when I
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: was going through this stuff and I'm looking at the
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: guys and I'm going through the numbers, and usually what
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: a lot I'll do before I start thinking and stuff,
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: I'll tune into your show, like see what you think
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: before I even look, before I even thinking. Man, now
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: I'm now I'm on the show with you. I was
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: hoping you'd give me some like insight into what these
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: guys can do. Actually, because based on the numbers, I mean,
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: like you said, I mean you got a minus one
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: forty guy who's now eighty seven hundred, you know, so
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: you're gonna get some really good money line value on
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: the other side of this. But remember this is a
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: this is only a twelve fight car. When I say
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: only twelve fights, so it's twelve fights, but two five rounders,
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: you know, so you got to five rounders. It's gonna
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: just like eat up like all this ownership, and probably
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: for good reason, both for different reasons. And you know,
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: you gotta start thinking about getting off the board a
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: little bit. So what are we talking about beforehand? Well,
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: the guys that you don't know, probably you know you
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: get a little bit more variance, and you probably should
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: play them, so that are using favorite playing this fight.
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: Second of all, we talked about maybe this first fight
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: of that at three in the morning, nobody wants any
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: part of either, okay, so maybe the fighting of itself
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: is going to be low owned. So you put all
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: that together, you get variants with guys you've never heard of,
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: Variancy guys you can't pronounce, variants with guys that that
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: are in the first fight of the night. And then
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: you get this weird little you know, anti money line play.
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: I'm kind of with you, you know, without even knowing
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: what these guys could do that you play. You play
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: kind of like the bad eighty seven hundred dollars guy
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: minus you know, it's only minus one forty or something
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: like that, and just kind of hope the variance is
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: in your favor and you get off to a good start.
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: So I kind of like it. I like I like
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: the the Oran side of this, of this fight for
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: all the contrayer and reasons I just mentioned.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: Solid yeah, and I I mean, if if the line
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: keeps changing and it moves to that, it's supposed to
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: go the distance. And I'm gonna have a lot less interest,
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: but I feel like the line will be, you know,
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: minus one eighty five to be inside the distance. And
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: aside that, I just don't feel good about either one
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: of them. I don't really trust either guy. I don't
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: even know if they're UFC level. That's just something I
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: want to target against. Not really I'm targeting either one
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: of these guys. I'm just targeting against both of them.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: So I'll get exposure to both of them. But let
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: me go against the grain and I'll take the eighty
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: seven hundred dollars guy instead.
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: The next one I think is another tricky fight. We
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: have Sue Young You at minus one thirty against JIAOI
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: Long at plus one ten. I think that You is
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: just gonna be the much better wrestler in this one.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: He's gonna be able to dictate where the fight takes place.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: That's really all he likes to do is get takedowns
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: and try and keep top control for as long as
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: he can. But he's not very active when he does
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: get takedowns, which we like to see from guys like
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: a Fluffy or Morob. He is not that he is
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: a get the takedown and try and hold that position
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: for as long as he can work his way to
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: a more dominant position. But he's got nineteen takedowns and
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: his four fights in the octagon, two of those are
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: road to UFC fights, But he's only averaging I want
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: to say, right right, yeah, right around eighty points. He
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: got eighty eight in his last fight where he had
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: five takedowns, seventy four in the fight before that he
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: had two takedowns. But I think if this one goes
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: the distance, it's probably him getting takedowns, controlling the fight
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: and getting a win around that range again, and if
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: there's a finish, I think it's going to be on
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: the long side. He is going to be the better
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: striker in my opinion, And I also think he's more
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: dangerous with his submissions. I just don't feel good about
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: him getting a submission off his back when use the
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: one getting the takedowns controlling where the fight is. So
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna pick you to get the win. But this
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: could be one where I get more exposure Tolong just
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: because he's four hundred dollars cheaper. And if he can't
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: get that, I mean, if you can't get the takedowns,
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: I think he could be in trouble here long as
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: the more exciting fighter. But at the same time, somebody
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: who's always going for takedowns against a fairly dangerous submission guy,
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: it puts them in danger throughout the whole fight. So
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: maybe my preferred play will end up being long on
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: this one, but I'd like to hear what you have
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: to say on this one.
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna watch that see how this develops. Because
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: when I first looked at this, I said, you know what,
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: both these fighters are plus four hundred inside the distance,
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: you know, like Jo and added says Young Lou were
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: both like plus four or fifteen at least thecurring to
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: fight OS. I don't know if that's updated or whatever.
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: So I was one wondering, like, which one of these
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: guys has to be a grappler, right, so at least
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: the young the young WU side, he could probably get
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: some upside with his with his grappling. I don't know
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: about about the Jau alongside, you know, like right now
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: I see the plus four or fifteen, Maybe that changes,
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: but I can't. I can't play a guy who is
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: gonna be on his back at all at a plus
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: four or fifteen inside the distance. So I'm gonna I'm
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: gonna watch that, and I just wonder again that this
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: young you, this this young you play is gonna get
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: like too much steam, you know, like because like you said,
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: you know, he has five takedowns and it's a mid
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: range fight, and he's just gonna get jammed, you know.
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: So he's certainly in cash or in low risk, is
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: gonna be the better play because you know what, he's
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: got the takedown upside, like you said, and and it's
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: a you know, it's a mid range fights and actually
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: eighty three seventy nine. Yeah, it's eighty three seventy nine.
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: So he's gonna be pretty popular. I don't know if
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: I have it in me to to leverage against it
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: there without a little more information on long because that
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: inside the distance line is a little bit a little
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: light for me.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I don't I didn't watch a whole
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: lot of film on really any of these fights, to
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: be honest with you, But I was just more impressed
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: on the long side. But it's hard to for this
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: specific matchup to see him have a lot of success
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: when the other guy only wants to do one thing
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: and he's pretty good at doing that one thing, so
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: I'll just be taking both shots on both side. But
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: if you is going to be more owned, then that
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: makes me like long just that much more for DFS
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: ye next one, we have Yza coming in hand ninety
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: nine hundred. He is minus twelve hundred on the betting
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: line against Weston Wilson plus seven hundred. I don't know
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: if we've ever seen a ninety nine hundred dollars fighter, uh,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: and it's it's probably going to be priced out of
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: most of my lineups. I don't know how many dogs
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: I want to get to that'll allow me to get
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: to him and the other favorites that I like on
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: this card. But it does look like a pretty easy
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: match for Yza. He's just a well rounded fighter, whereas
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Wilson is submission or bust. He has dangerous submission skills
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: when the fight is on the ground, but he has
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: no striking and he also doesn't have wrestling to dictate
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: where the fight is going to take place, so he
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: has to land some wild submission or grab a leg
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: or an ankle and take it from there. But Za's
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: a good submission artist too, and I think he could
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: submit Wilson. I think he could knock out Wilson. My
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: worry with him would be that he's just worried about
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: going to the ground with Wilson, and if the TKO
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: doesn't come or if it takes too long, then there's
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: no ways paying off ninety nine hundred. I have a
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: hard time seeing him pay paying off that price tag
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: either way. So I'm just not super interested. But I
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: do think it's a clear win for him. It could
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: be a finish on the feet, finish on the ground,
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: or just a clear thirty twenty seven. But do you
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: have any interest in this one?
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: I suggested a few weeks ago there was a guy
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: who was I think ninety eight hundred. A few weeks ago,
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: maybe I forget.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I've seen that. I remember ninety eight.
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: It was another ninety seven to ninety eight, And when
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: I was doing a video, I was suggesting the theory
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: that nobody can ever be ninety eight hundred, regardless of
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: who what the matchup is, and who you're fighting. Like.
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: I was making the case that if like John Jones
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: was fighting me like I wouldn't pay ninety eight hundred,
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean, Because the only way really
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: that ninety eight hundred wins. Wins A slate is either
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: you get the first I mean, you need the quick
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: win bonus. I think for openers, you know, or rite
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: or a card with just so many underdogs that look good.
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: You know that it doesn't matter what your price is.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: But I just I don't think that's this card, you know,
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: So I don't care what is inside of the distance
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: line is. Even if you told me he was gonna
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: win the first round, I probably still wouldn't want him
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: because it's not just. And we'll talk about it when
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: you get to to Minjang like later. You know what
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: I mean. But there's there's two types of well not
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: two typess plenty types of fighters. But some guys can
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: in the first round knockouts can score one hundred and four,
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: and some guys in first round knockouts and score one
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: hundred and thirty four, you know what I mean. And
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: and you need more like the one hundred and thirty
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: four at ninety nine hundred. That's just the way it is.
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: I can't imagine him, and there's so many ways he
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: could bust like westn Wilson, I'm not mistaken in his
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: last fight, Like you said, he did did he get
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: a first did get a first round sob or something
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: like that. I mean, it's obviously that's what he's going
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: to try to do, right because his last three, he's
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: got his last five, six, seven, like all of his
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: wins right are by sub So Okay, maybe he's not great,
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: but he's thirty six years old, he's been around the block.
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: You know what he's gonna try to do, and it's
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: probably the other guy's probably not stupid either. He knows
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: the guy's gonna try to do that. Also, so I
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: think that that maybe he goes on the ground, Maybe
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: he you know, does that thing where he just like,
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: you know, just literally lays on the ground to try
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: to challenge him to get into a grappling thing and
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: all that while the clock is just ticking, you know.
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: So I think the clock will be ticking away on
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: the people that pay ninety nine hundred. So I'm not
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna be interested in probably this fight at all.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think, yeah, you sold me. I'm just gonna
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: x him out ninety nine hundred. I mean, he's not
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: gonna go out there and put up ten plus takedowns
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: against a submission artist. Uh, so you're really playing for
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: the quick win bonus. And even if he gets the
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: quick wind bones at ninety nine hundred, I don't know
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: that he's a lock for the Aftamal lineup on this guard.
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: Quick wings tough though, that's one hundred and twelve off
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: the bat, right, I mean like that.
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: I mean it is tough, but at ninety nine hundred,
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: you need you still need a lot to go your way,
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: so you know.
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: You don't end up happening, you'll end up having you know,
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: you'll end up playing him. I'll get one hundred and
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: twenty seven points or something, and then like next thing,
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: you know, you'll be waiting, Oh I need now ortega
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: and walker back to back, you know, or something like that.
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: And that'll even be duped like eighty times, you know.
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: So so it's it's gonna be uh, it's gonna be
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: tough to get there.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I like it. I'm just gonnax them out and
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: make it a little easier for myself. I don't plan
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: on making many lineups for this one. I'm not waking
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: up at three o'clock. We're actually going up to Michigan
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: for the Little Ship It get together, So I'm gonna
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: be going to the golf course that Saturday. There's no
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: way I'm waking up at three o'clock to watch this card,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: so I'll just have a couple of lineps personally, but yeah,
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: looking forward to this weekend anyways. Next one on the card,
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: we have Michelle Pereira minus two sixty against Kyle Daucas
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: plus two twenty. Doucas is making his return after being
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: cut from the UFC. He got a couple of knockout
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: losses back to back, and then Perera's coming off back
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: to back losses too. I mean, one's against Fluffy Hernandez.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: Can't blame him for that one. Fluff's gonna be pretty
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: much anybody but Shamaia possibly, and then his last fight
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: against about Maga Metov was just such a poor performance.
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: He just didn't even show up. So I don't know
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: what to expect from Pereira, but I know that I
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: would not be laying minus two sixty on him just
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: because I have no trust at all in him, just
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: period after his last fight. He's a hard guy to
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: trust peer in general, just his wild moves that he
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: kind of came into the UFC with. But he does
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: have power Doccas has a questionable chin, so he's in
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: play for the knockout. He could also land takedowns throughout
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: this fight, but I just don't think that's gonna be
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: his game plan, and he would be putting himself in
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: trouble because Daucas is the grappler in this fight. If
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: Daucas is gonna win, it's gonna have to come through
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: takedowns and he could be a submission that way. Or
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: he could possibly grind out two rounds on the ground
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: even win one on the feet if Prayer's gonna come
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: out like he did in his last fight. I mean,
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: Daucas could definitely hang with them on the feet if
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: he's not gonna do anything.
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: But my preferred play is gonna be the underdog at
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: seven K. I think Doucas could break this slate if
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: he's able to get a first round takedown. I think
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: he could work his way into a Dars choke uh,
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: chue Pereira out in round one, get a ninety five
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: pointer in the pre limbs, and you're sitting pretty. So
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: my preferred play is going to be Daucas in this one,
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: but I do want some Pereira exposure as well. If
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be putting MMM lineups into this slate. I
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: doubt that, I am, so it's probably dacas have passed
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: for me personally. But do you have a stand in
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: this one?
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: Who is the guy with the that had the brain injury?
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: Is that him or somebody else? Pereira am it was
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: Vera Vera. I get I get them. I don't know,
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: so Michelle Pere I mean he's gonna be popular. Okay.
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: He's got a minus one hand inside the distance line,
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: I believe, and and and people have heard of him.
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: He's got some some highlight real freaking ishes, you know whatever,
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: and he's been been fighting like like they said, like
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: the quote unquote better competition, right, and people people look
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: at that and they they will they were looking at
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: the same way that you just kind of did it,
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: because you know, we're storytellers. Okay, I was Malgamdoff. I
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: was a bad performs but but he's he's really good
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: and fluffy Hernandez, that's no shame, even though I mean
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: you say it's no shame. He had like literally thirty
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: seconds of activity in that fight, Okay, like he looked
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: pretty good for like a half a round, which like
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: everybody does against against Fluffy and then he was just
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: just destroyed. Okay, like I can't imagine him getting up
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: after that fight, like in fighting ever. Okay, so he
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: goes back and he played it. He goes against Maga
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: Madoff and he looked like looked like awful. I think
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: for Haa, because of all that is gonna be popular.
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: And I have to say that that I'm with you
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: on this one. I do like the dark as side
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: and listen, this is like a little bit Usually I'm
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: usually not a narrative driven guy, but there are a
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: couple of spots like that. I just kind of feel
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: like getting for this card. I mean, Daucas was cut
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: right and he we went went to other places or whatever,
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: and now he's getting a shot to come back. I
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: mean like he I mean, they're both flying to freaking
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: China for this. I mean, who's really motivated in this one?
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: You know, you got hair off of freaking two terrible losses,
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean. And he got Dalcas who's
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: given a shot to come back and revitalize his freaking career.
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: I mean, I Preferducas too. I think he'll probably end
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: up with the better cardio here also and I I'm
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: with you. I like him. I like him in DFS,
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: I like him betting, I like him everywhere.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: Nice. I love to hear that. That'll. I mean, if
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: I'm a single entry, how do I not put a
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: guy named Kyle into it? So let's go. Let's go
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: Kyle Dowcas. I hope he does get that Dars joke.
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: All right, let's go. Next one, we have Wrong Zoo
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: minus two fifty two against Austin Hubbard plus two twelve.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: This one's another one I'm just not super interested in
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: because I think that Wrong Zoo's just a little bit
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: better everywhere. But Hubbard isn't bad anywhere, so I think
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: he's gonna be able to keep it close, and I
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: just don't see any domination from the Wrong Zoo side.
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: He can land a couple of takedowns as we go.
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: He's an okay striker. I expect him to win twenty
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: nine to twenty eight, but that's just not going to
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: cut it at ninety one hundred. And then on the
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: Hubbard side, he's not really bad at anything, but he's
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: not really good at anything either, so he can maybe
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: keep this fight close and contend for a possible ten
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: x type of score. I would guess he doesn't even
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: hit ten X and a win. I think it's more
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: in the sixty range. But I don't want exposure to
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: either one of these guys for that reason. I'm expecting
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: a slower paced fight that mainly takes place on the feet,
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: and I think that the favorite wins and just doesn't
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: score enough. But what are you thinking?
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Hubbard just you know, ufc VET puts
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: up a lot of decisions, you know, same thing, Hey,
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: I gotta fight for you. Oh yeah, you just just
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: fly out to freaking China. He's like really, He's like, well,
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: that's what I got for you. And then you got
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: Rung Zuo, who just like this is like his life,
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: you know, like he's like he's twenty twenty one years old.
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: He's fought like a hundred times already, you know what
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, Like he's and he's in front of his again.
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: I don't want to canceled. I presume these are his
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: home fans. I'm not sure whether he's from China or
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: Japan or whatever, but the fact is they're gonna be
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: all be rooting for him, and I just like to
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: think that he's gonna come out with more energy than
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: than Hubbard. He's gonna have more motivation than Hubbard, he's
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: gonna have more aggression than Hubbard. And I got better
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: underdogs to play than Hubbard, honestly. But to your point,
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, ninety one hundred, that's that's rough business for him,
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: and he's not really much of a finisher. I mean,
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: but look, when we get to playing GPP stuff, I'm
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: obviously he'll be low owned, and you know, maybe maybe
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: he'll get to some of it. But again, this is, uh,
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: this isn't kind of kind of a fade. If anybody
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: I would actually take a shot at you wrong, I
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: would not want to take Hubbard as the dog here.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, I think the two star is
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: about right on this one. It's just not when I'm
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: looking to target. But it's also not a one star
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: where I just absolutely wouldn't play either side. I think
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: they're both in play. You can make an excuse for
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: either one, but I just think there's better plays on
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: this card. Next one, we have Loney Cavanaugh minus one
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: ninety against Charles Johnson plus one sixty five, and this
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: is gonna be a dogg or pass for me. Because
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: Cavanaugh is just not a high enough paced fighter. He's
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: a fun fighter to watch, he's a really good prospect.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: He's got really good striking, he's got power in his hands,
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: and we saw him mix in some wrestling in his
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: last fight too, which was good to see, and I
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: think he should do that again in this fight against
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: Charles Johnson. But I just don't think he's gonna knock
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: out Charles Johnson. And he's also not a high volume striker.
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: I think Charles Johnson can be a high volume striker.
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: He could beat him there. And if Kavanaugh is not
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: going for takedowns, I just think this is gonna be
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: close to a fifty to fifty type of fight where
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: you we're not even gonna know who the judges are
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: gonna read off after they give that split decision. Uh So,
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: my preferred play is gonna be Johnson, but it's another
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: one where I don't think he's got a big ceiling.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: He's probably playing for seventy to eighty in my opinion.
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: I feel like he always wants to drop the first round,
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: so we're getting all our points in the second and
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: the third. But on this card, I'm interested in any
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: underdog that I think is viable to win, so I'll
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: get some Johnson exposure. I will x out Kavanaugh personally
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: because I'm not gonna have enough lineups on this card.
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: But I think this will be a fun fight and
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: maybe a contender for a Fight of the night.
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you're not gonna I mean if if what's his name, uh,
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: if Kavanaugh drops the first round, that's that's bad news
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: because because for him, because Charles Johnson, he's got He's
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: got second and third round cardio, you know what I mean.
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: So I'm not I don't think that's gonna be Kavanaugh's
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: path to get off to a slow start. I fear
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: that that Johnson is gonna be a little too popular. Okay,
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: you have that win on his record where he freaking
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: knocked out josh Van and Joshua Van could be like
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: the best fighter in the universe right now, you know,
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: depending on who you ask. And people are gonna see that,
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: and they love playing Charles Johnson for the reason. I mean,
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: he always as what's his days? The title says, you
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: know he'll fight for your dollar, right, he'll he'll never
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: gives up. He looks like he was dead A couple
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: of fights ago, and he came back to win that
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: one too, So I think, like you said, fight in
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: the night, I think it's gonna be a very very
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: good fight. You know, you have some pretty good opponents
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: for Kavanaugh who he did listen, Jose Achoa. That's a
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: that's a pretty good win, you know. I flee put
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: this on. It's a pretty good one. I think it's
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: gonna be a nice striking based fight where the winner
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: is really psyched to win and score seventy points. So
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna be under on this now. With that said, uh,
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: these mid range fights can be very very naw fade,
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: you know in dfs, So if I get to them,
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: I'll get to them, but I would rather not. Let's
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: put it that way fair enough.
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: I really want to know what you have to think
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: on this next one, because I have no lean either way.
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: We have Gage Young at minus one fifteen against Mahasht
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: at minus one five. This is our mid range fight
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: of the morning eighty two hundred, verse eight K and
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: I just think it's a pick and fight. Like the
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: line indicates, I give mahashat the edge with his boxing.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: I think he has the better hands. I also think
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: he has more knockout power in his hands, but at
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: the same time he's more hittable and he's less durable.
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: So I just think this is going to be a
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: striking match where either guy could get knocked out and
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: we'd get big points that way. But if there is
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: no knockout, then I don't expect many takedowns throughout the fight,
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: and I don't expect it to be a high scoring,
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: fifteen minute striking Messed. I don't know what I want
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: to do with this one, so you can really sell
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: me anything. I got something for you here, Okay.
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: I got something for you, Okay, So here here, here's
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: here's the analysis that my shot sucks. Okay, he's he
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: had one he had that that would that insane win
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: over Steve Garcia, which god knows how that ever happened, Okay,
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: and and then he just he's he's a striker, and
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: and he's never impressed me. Ever, I think his best
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: fight might have been the loss to Motive, because I
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: think Motive is actually really good. But Gage Young, all right,
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: so here's here's the here's the the information, so he
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: thought Evan Elder, And first of all, obviously Young is
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: always gonna lose to his elders. Okay, so that's obviously
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: the case. Elders always beat Young's. But the other thing
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: is that he's actually training partner like or maybe Elder's
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: student actually, and he took that fight against Elder. I'm like,
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: I'm like like two hours notice or something like that,
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: and he actually hung in there. Kind of Okay. I
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: think that gay Young is something I really want to
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: target here, And I don't know what his upside really is,
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: but I just think that his win chances are just
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: a lot better than they're giving him a pick him here,
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: So I I like Gay Young here. Maybe he's got
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: takedowns in his arsenal somewhere you're listening. He lost the
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: decision to to h to swing and college sal Keid,
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: who's pretty good. So I don't know. I'm kind of
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: down with this. When you have to take some shots
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: somewhere and I actually, uh, I'm gonna beat the anti
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: MA shot they got here and go with gay Jun.
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: I like it, all right, I'm cool with that. And
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: I usually feel like, if I don't have a lean,
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: I always just save the two hundred dollars. I go
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: with the cheaper guy. But maybe that's what more people
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: think anyways, And Gay Young, I don't think he'll be
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: too owned on this card, so let's get it. Let's
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: go Young. I'll change my pick on this one.
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: I know why not?
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: All right, next one, I do think he'll be a
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: good DFS fight. We have man. Here we go ty Tyler.
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: We're gonna call him ty Lake. Neuraji versus Keifer Crosby.
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: Naraji is minus four seventy against Crosby's plus three seventy.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: And uh, this Neuaji guy's got one hundred percent finished
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: rate all of his fights and inside the distance. He
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: is an all action type of fighter. Really, when you
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: see fighters matched up against Crosby, you wanna you want
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: them to be wrestlers or grapplers, because that's Crosby's biggest
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: weakness is being taken down and kind of looking like
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: a fish off his off, a fish out of water
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: off his back. But this Neuragi guy, I thought he
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: looked more like a striker, and just a striker that
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: is trying to go for the kill, but he could
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: also leave himself open for the kill. And that puts
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: Crosby in play on this card where I don't think
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: he's gonna have any ownership, you know, ten percent, sub
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: ten percent. I am interested in a little bit of Crosby,
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: but at the same time, everybody's gonna like Naragi. I'm
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: picking Naraji to win because Crosby is not very good.
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: And I think it's this fight's in China. They probably
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: are wanting this Naraji guy to get his hand raised here.
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: So he is my pick. I think he's gonna get
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: the t k O. But leverage wise, I just don't
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: know how I'm gonna get that much leverage over the
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: field when he's gonna be a popular play on this
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: card and Crosby will be unowned. Uh. Do you have
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: you think in the same way at all?
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: I wasn't, but I'm down now again. I didn't really
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: think of it that way. And and what I did
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: think of is, yeah, I mean, uh, Naraji has a
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: huge inside the distance line, you know whatever. But I
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: didn't even consider like the the what I usually consider
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: is okay, the guys are gonna look really good you
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: while you think about who their opponent is. And like
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: you mentioned, I mean, if Neurage is like an all
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: action guy and Crosby, you know, Crosby wins the fight,
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: like they're not gonna it's not gonna be because you know,
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: the the the China and these judges gave him the victory,
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean, Like he say, there's no
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: way it's gonna work that way. If he does win,
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be by some flash ko or or weird
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: or weird finish. And if Duraji is the one of
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: these favorites that gets that gets the juice, you know
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: what I mean, Uh, then yeah, you're gonna be looking
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: for leverage and and listen, it's gonna be one of
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: those where if I'm playing twenty max and whatever, I'm
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: not gonna force Crosby in. Let's just say that if
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: I play GPPs and I get a bunch of him,
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna be particularly upset.
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I don't. I don't know that he's
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: like super live in this matchup. But when I was
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: watching Nearaji, he just didn't strike me as someone special,
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: and I kind of figured, you're gonna give this Crosby
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: matchup to somebody who looks pretty good. And this guy
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: took the fight on late notice. It wasn't even Crosby's
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: original matchup, so I'm not sure how he got this
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: spot and why he's such a big favorite. I think
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: it's people betting against Crosby rather than betting on Naraji.
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: So for DFS purposes, I'm I'm okay going against the
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: grain and getting a little bit more exposure than the
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: field on the Crosby side. But I think this one
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: ends early either way, so I'm expecting a high score
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: on the Winter side. Next one I think will be
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: one of the more fun fights of the night we have.
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: Oh man, I always can't get this guy's name, Sue
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: Sue Mudargy.
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: This is like, this is one of the easy ones,
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: like Sumadergy is like, that's that's one of the easier ones.
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: I think it's looking at it is what throws me off.
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: I just think, Sue Mudargy, Yeah, I'm fine, but looking
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: at it throws me off. But he is minus one
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: sixty five against Kevin Borjas. He is plus one forty five,
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: and I'm expecting a striking match in this one, a
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: fairly high paced striking match. But both guys can be dangerous.
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know how dangerous Borhas's hands are, but I
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: think he could knock out Sumer Mudargy, But this is
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: like my first or second, you know, most exciting striking
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: matches on the card, if you're not counting the main events.
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: The main event, I don't think that one will last
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: very long, and I could see this one going either way,
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: but for DFS purposes, I would much rather have that
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: eight hundred dollars For the Borhaus side. I am picking
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: Sue Mudharji to get the win because I've just seen
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: more from him. I think he is the more impressive striker.
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: I think he's more dangerous as well, But I had
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: eighty five hundred dollars from a striker. You have to
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: get the knockout from him because he's not gonna be
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: going for takedowns and I just don't think he's gonna
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: get enough points in a fifteen minute striking match. So
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: I would rather take my chances on the Borhaas. But
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: to me, he's similar to Charles Johnson or they're the
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: same exact type of fighter. If they win, it's probably
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: a fifteen minute striking match where the judges give it
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: to him and they score you know, right around the
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: seventies somewhere around there. So I don't really have between
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: those two hunderdogs. I don't even have a preferred play.
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: I would guess i'd say Johnson because I'm actually picking
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: him to win. But I just think this be a
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: fun fight that the judges could give to the underdog.
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's cool, you know because if those you don't know,
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, we don't talk about these fights beforehand, and
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: so I didn't know where you were gonna go with this,
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: and I really had this question prepared. After you went
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: through this. I was gonna say, like, rank like one, two, three, four,
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: like Maderji, Borjas, Cavanaugh, Johnson, you know what I mean,
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: because it's the same fight as far as I'm concerned.
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: You have two kind of sort of well known underdogs
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: in Borhaus and again Borjas had a good fight against
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: against Joshua Van again by the way, before he got finished. Later,
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: I think, how would you rank like all four of those?
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: Now you could play them all whatever, but well you
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: can't play all of them. But who how would you
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: rank Medergy, Borjas, Cavanaugh, Johnson.
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: So I'm thinking Johnson first and then I'll go Borjas second.
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: I'm just not gonna be playing the favorites personally because
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna have enough lineups, but I would go
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: Sue Madre j third, Cavanaugh fourth.
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I I think I agree with that.
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: And I think both Borjas and Johnson are gonna be
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: popular underdogs. Uh so even if you play them, you know,
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: I think that you play you want to play Borjas
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: and and and and Johnson with like that's when maybe
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: you get lucky with your uh who's who's the flash
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: knockout guy? Uh Keeva Crosby or something like that, and
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: then then you can then you can play big favorites
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: like for the rest of the day or something like that. Yeah,
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: but UH think Borjas again, like upside not so much,
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: you know, but is it good enough? It was he
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: seventy seventy six hundred, is what is he? I mean?
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: Is that good enough? Maybe? I don't know. I'm not sure,
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: but he's definitely gonna be very playable in in in
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: low risk stuff. And I'm probably not gonna get so
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: much of of of Madargia.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: Actually, Like, yeah, I think it's gonna be a better
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: fight to watch than it is for DFS. But any
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: live dog, I'm interested on this card, all right. Next one,
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: we have Sergey Pavlovitch coming in as a minus two
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: twenty five favorite against Waldo Cortesa Costa plus one ninety
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: and this is this is gonna be one of my
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: hot takes. I don't know how hot it is if
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: people have watched me before, because I pretty much always
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: fade Pavlovitch. I do think he is one of the
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: scariest strikers in the UFC. He has i'd say the
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: most one punch power in the entire UFC organization. But
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: if that one punch doesn't land, I don't think he
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: has many paths to victory against high, high volume strikers
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: or people who can wrestle. And I do think that
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: Cortesa Costa is a high volume striker, where I just
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: have a hard time seeing Pavlovitch beat him in a
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: three round striking match. It's a I wouldn't say it's
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: knockout or bust because he could win a striking match,
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: but I'd prefer the underdog if I knew this one
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: was gonna go the distance. And I don't expect to
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: see takedowns really from either side. Maybe Pavlovitch after his
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: last performance, but I wasn't expecting it then I'm not
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: going to expect it now knockout from Avalovic, that's the
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: only way he gets on the optimal lineup. Or Cortesa
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: Costa is one of those live underdogs who could score
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: in the seventies, and that's what I'm gonna pick to
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: happen and give me the underdog year.
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: All right. So one of the things I used to
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: really hate about content, like when I was watching it
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: as a user or whatever is is Pepe the whoever
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: was on, they would just end up agreeing with each
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: other on like every freaking fight, every single play, every
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: single pitcher, and if one guy really disagreed, they wouldn't
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: even say, like I disagreed, They would say, you know,
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: I could see that, you know what I mean, Maybe
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: I'll get some of it in tournaments or something like that.
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: It was. It was a freaking joke, honestly. And one
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: of the things I always liked about when you entitled
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: is is there was a little of that, honestly, but not,
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: you know, not as much as some of the others.
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: So I want to say that because and also the
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: stress that we didn't talk about these fights beforehand, and
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: I was I was preparing to come on in and
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: like give give this idea that I was gonna yelled at,
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: and then you went and said this. So I'm just
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: gonna like just say what I have to say, like
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: f Sergey pavlov honestly, like like seriously, like like I
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: don't want any part of this, dude. And and I
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: say that with this background. I mean, when he knocked
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: out Curtis Blades, I cast for eighty four thousand dollars, Okay,
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: in UFC. I had both sides of that fight going
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: into the and I would have had the optimal if
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: either one of them won. But but the Pavlovic side
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: got me more. It was a weird card because there
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: was like a canceled car fight earlier, or there was
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: a DQ it was some weird thing maybe with Bruno
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: Silva or something like that. I think that's what it was.
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: Bruno Silva like knocked somebody out. But if you can
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: believe it, okay, and and or something weird happened and
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: I ended up with that, and and and what's going
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: on with Sergey Pavlovitch. It reminds me of again when
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: I was saying about some of these other fighters. Okay,
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: like he had this, you know, this big reputation he
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: got the Curtis blades Ko, then he got then he
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: got wrecked. Okay, and people are going back to that
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: fight and saying, oh, well, he had Aspenau in trouble.
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: I don't rememb remember it that way quite honestly. And
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: then he got just totally owned by Volkov in like
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: a no volume, just a bysmal freaking performance, but perhaps
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: less abysmal than his horrible performance against Harry Rosenstroke where
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: he just got nothing done as well. So you have
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: this guy coming into China who's I think, kind of
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: on a decline, is just kind of over it, almost
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: like all of his mojo was just kind of taken
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: away from him with the Aspina knockout, and he's going
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: against this dude Walda's courses of course Acosta and I
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: know what people think that they're used to, Like, okay,
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: everybody thinks that Waldo Court is a coasta. He's the
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: same guy who coming fights Chase Sherman and Jared Vandera
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: and like the worst of the worst, and okay, great,
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: he'd be Lucas Breski. The fact of the matter is
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: that this guy is on the way up. This guy
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: is the only one of these two guys with Anny Cardio. Honestly,
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: this guy is the faster of the strikers. He's the
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: only when we're wrestling upside. And I completely agree, okay,
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: I think that that he is clearly the one to play.
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: I'm actually not to get into the betting piece, but
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: if you want, you want something to do, I'm actually
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: gonna play him by like round three ko or something,
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: and that would be like the ultimate like humiliation, you
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: know what I mean, Like to put all of this together,
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: it's probably getting plus four million to one or something
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: like that. And not to mention that Pavlovich just gonna
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: be popular, okay, I mean you look at his his
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: his inside the distance line, it's still gonna be minus
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: one ten, right, he always is right. So people are
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: gonna get to him. They're gonna play him, so you
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: get leverage. You got a guy who people don't have
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: a lot of respect for because he came up, you know,
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: fighting the worst. Okay, but what did he do wrong?
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: Like he really did nothing wrong along the way, and
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: and now he's here against the guy who's on the
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: way down, I think traveling off to China. He's over it.
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: And you have a coust of coming in. He go
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: fight to the freaking moon to fight someone like this,
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: you know, So, I don't know. I completely agree with you.
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: And I'm gonna get up at six o'clock in the
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: morning whenever I get up, and I'm gonna have a
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: ton of acosta on this gun.
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: Oh wow, that's music to my ears. Let's go. I
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: probably end up betting a Costa now. I love to
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: hear that.
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: I was already, especially when our dfs line up. Your dad.
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: Exactly, I will get my money back. Yeah, yeah, we'll see.
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's a great matchup for him.
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: Just avoid those big bombs, and I think he wins.
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: I didn't realize you had you you were the anti
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: you had the anti Pavlovich lean. I didn't. I wasn't
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: aware of that.
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm anti power only like when your best chance
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: at winning is knocking the person out, I'm not usually
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: picking that person. I like to I'd rather see the
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: person who can win skillfully over fifteen minutes rather than
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: I have big power in my hands. All right, that's
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: like just my style in general.
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: So what do you think about al Joe in five
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: rounds with with thirty minutes of control time at forty ownership. Uh,
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: it's it's it's I don't know, man, it's it's a
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: I like it. It's like I do like it. I
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: don't think Brian Ortega is going to be able to
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: deal with deal with what Sterling brings. I think that
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: Sterling is live to get booed a lot during this fight.
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: But at the end of the day, you get five
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: rounds of Sterling wrapping his arms around you. Uh. I
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: think Ortega is in. I think Ortega is in for
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: a rough rough go here. I don't know if that's
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: that's just my opinion. I'm gonna have to get the
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: Sterling just because of that, of all that control time
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: upside and all this stuff. And that's kind of where
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: I'm at in that fight.
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, I do think I'm want to kind of
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: get away from that fight a little bit. I do
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: think Sterling would be the better play. He's the guy
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: who could put up a big one hundred and twenty
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: play us. We got one hundred and forty in the chat.
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: I mean that would surprise me, but he could he
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: could do it with five rounds. Aljo is the guy
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: on this card. If anyone's gonna do it. Al Jo
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: is the guy, uh, But Ortega's most dangerous area is
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: his jiu jitsu, and I don't know how much Sterling
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: really wants to test that, especially early. I would I
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: would guess that his game plan is to go out
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: there and test out the striking, and if the striking
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: is going your way, then don't put yourself in danger
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: on the ground. But if it's not, then sure, go
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: out there, test out your wrestling. You're gonna be the
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: better wrestler, and then just avoid the submissions for a
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: more tega and you should be able to grind out
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: this fight. But I think Ortega is just nasty on
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: the ground. He could be on his back and submit Sterling.
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: So I don't know how much grappling is gonna take
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: place in this fight. For that reason, I don't know.
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: That if you believe, If you believe Sterling, Sterling came
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: right out and said that he's not going for taking it. Really,
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: he came run out and said it's gonna be a
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: striking match, So I think that he's totally line. But
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: last time he tried that, Sean O'Malley destroyed him, So yeah.
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: This is no Shan Shan O'Malley, this is who you
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: would prefer to strike against. But I do think a
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: striking match could be close, and in a striking match
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: at these prices, I would prefer or Tega. So I
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: think my my preferred play is just to kind of
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: go away from it. Let let all the ownership go
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: to the field and hope that it is mainly a
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: striking match. And that's how this fight doesn't end up
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: on the optimal lineup. Sterling wins. He scores eighty five
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: points in a unanimous decision. I think that's super live
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: to happen. So I don't have it as a five
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: star because I'm not gonna play it like a five star.
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: I would rather play that Naraji Crosby fight. I would
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: rather play the main event. But I'm also okay getting
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: exposure to either side of this fight. It would be
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: the Sterling side for the ceiling or the Ortega. It
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: would be if you need to find an underdog in
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: your lineup.
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: Well, you know the other thing is that, I mean,
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: you have two five round fights. You probably don't want
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: to have both of them in big gp P lineups.
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: You know, you probably want to get away from one
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: of them. So, I mean, if you're gonna play the
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: main event, maybe you're right, you know, maybe you should
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: just kind of avoid this and hope. Look, you know
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: what could happen. What happens, like you said, if al
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: Jamain Sterling, you know, gets what he wants and he
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: gets like ninety two points in his win or whatever,
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: and you know, he he doesn't go for all of
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: his uh all the ground and pound. He just tries
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: to wrap him up like like like we said, and
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: then you get freaking, uh the the hero of the day.
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: You get the local hero of Ju Ram come in
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: and and and Dust Hubbard at one hundred and seven
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: points at the same price, you know, at one eightieth
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: of the ownership. So maybe maybe you're right. Maybe of
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: the two main events, uh, maybe this is the one
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: that you should that you might want to fade.
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think so, especially with this minus
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: fourteen hundred inside the distance line on the next one
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: fight ends in round one is minus two hundred on
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: some sides, I just think that this main event's not
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: gonna last long. We have Zang min Yang coming in
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: as a minus three zero five favorite against Johnny Walker
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: plus two fifty five men. Yang is somebody the UFC
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: wants to build up. His fight's in China. The crowd
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: is gonna be going crazy for him. He's coming off
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: a four straight UFC knockout wins. I believe all of
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: them in the first round. Walker's had multiple knockout losses.
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: I do think it is a knockout or bust type
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: of fight for Walker because I think Min Yang is
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: the better striker. But it's not gonna matter because I
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: think there's a knockout either way. Both these guys should
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: be swinging heavies, and I just don't think it's gonna
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: last more than one round. Minyang to win in round
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: one is minus one thirty five. When I'm handbuilding, he's
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: the first person I'm clicking on. I think he's he's
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: gonna get one hundred and five hundred and ten, or
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: he's gonna get that quick win bonus and be a
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: lock for the optimal lineup. I'm never a Walker guy.
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: He's kind of like my original Pavlovich. He had power
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: in his hands, he had the death touch. You can't
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: go in there and get touched by Walker or h
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: You're gonna lose when that doesn't Land and you turn
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: out to just not be that good of a fighter.
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: That's what I like to fade. So I'm not gonna
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: be playing walker with my With my single entry, it
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: would be Min Yang. But if I'm making twenty lineups,
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna be like fifteen and five or sixteen
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: and four. Still very heavy on the Min Yang side
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: and probably all in on this fight. But I don't
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: think you have to make a rule for it because
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: if it's not a first round finish, maybe Minyang's not
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: on the optimal lineup.
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah. See, I kind of teased this a little earlier.
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: You know, they're fighters that you know can get that
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: first round knockout score one hundred and two and guy's
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: hundred and thirty. And this dude, this dude's a freaking animal,
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: like like when he he'll get the knockdown in this
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: fight if he gets it, and then he'll have like
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: ninety four more significant strikes before the ref freak has
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: a chance kind of to get in there and Walker.
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: It just I hate to be narrative, but it really
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: just feels like they Johnny, Johnny, here's a bunch of money,
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: go to freaking China. Take your freaking beating, you know,
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: in front of the in front of the home, in
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: front of the fans. It's good for the promotion, it's
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: good for good for the worldview, you know. And and
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: uh and you know, and we'll you know, we'll do
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: you a solid. And I really just think that's what's
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: gonna happen. I mean, I think I think Min Yang
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: is gonna go after him and he's gonna murder him,
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean. Like, I just think he's
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: gonna I think he's literally got like one hundred and
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: ten point floor in this fight. Uh. Now, in DFS
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: have to you're gonna have to play some walker just
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: in case, right, uh, just in case he knocks him
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: down and then gives him illegal me and you get
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: a first round DQ out of Walker somehow or something
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: like that. Can you imagine if the judges in China
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: like dqed Minyang for an illegal knee, there's no way, right.
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: But but but let me, let me, let me take
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: a couple of cases. All right, let me let me
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: just make a couple of cases for Walker to help.
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: So Minyang Xiang is not like one hundred and zher Okay,
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: he's nineteen and six and he does have like six losses.
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: Now now, now you are gonna have to go back
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: to when he was like five years old, I think
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: for these losses. But nonetheless, he's gotten KOed like three
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: times and subbed once. And the fact is is that
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: in none of his fights that at least I've seen,
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: he's encountered like a shred of adversity. Okay, So I
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: don't know what this is gonna look like. If God forbid,
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: Walker gets a good shot off, you know, so I
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: am going to be forced to play some of Walker,
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: But make no mistake, I am going to have a
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: ton of Minjing Yang. And so I don't know if
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna end up with one hundred percent just because
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: I'm very rare we get one hundred percent of anything,
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: But I you're gonna have to, I hate to say,
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: You're gonna have to hold your nose and play and
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: play some Walker if you're playing GPPs. Just like I
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: said last week with with with DDP, Like, even though
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: I thought that Shamaia was obviously an incredible play, you
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: just kind of had to play the other side because
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: he was only like a two and a half to
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: one underdog, you know. So like, here's the thing about
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: this fight, all right, let's look in another way. So
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: what are the odds in this fight? Three three and
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: a half to one for me for Minjing Yang? So
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: what does that mean? That means that it means that
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: Johnny Walker wins this fight like twenty two percent of
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: the time. I mean, whether you like it or not,
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: whether you believe it or not, that's just reality, you know.
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: So if I told you that twenty two percent of
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: the time, a guy who was not going to be
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: that highly owned against the most popular maybe probably the
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: most popular fighter on the slate is going to win
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: and probably gonna score a ton. Also, you're probably gonna
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: have to play him for that twenty two if you're playing.
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: Oh, we just lost Sheets right right as he was
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: going on a rant. Hopefully he comes back, but if not,
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: this is a good time to talk about the ship
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: of Games, which Sheets did donate a little bit too.
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: With his MLB Qualify or win. We have seventy nine
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: thousand dollars we were giving back to the community. Here,
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: there's Sheets. We got him here. There, Go go ahead
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: and continue and I'll get back to this. You're on mute, though,
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: or something's going on. I can't hear it out, No,
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: I can't. I can't hear anything.
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: Now, Oh got you?
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: There you are?
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I got. I guess the technology gods didn't like
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: my Johnny Walker take there at all. My whole point
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: was that I think twenty two percent of the time
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: he is gonna win, and not that this is the
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: end of the story, but I don't even know if
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: he's gonna have in twenty two percent, and you're certainly
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: gonna get the most popular fighter on the slate on
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: the other side of it, So I in GPPs, you're
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: just gonna have to play.
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that makes a ton of sense, And
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: especially if it's gonna be a phone booth type of fight,
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: why not take the twenty percent guy who which it
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: could end up being closer to forty fifty if it
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: is a phone booth type of fight and these guys
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: are just throwing to go for the knockout, and that
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: could be how this fight goes down. So I'm definitely
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: fine with Walker. If I was mmmying, if I end
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: up going one lineup, it's for sure the ming Yang side.
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: But the more lineups I have, the more Walker I'll
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: end up getting exposure to I think this one will
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: be over fast and it'll be fun to watch while
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: it lasts. But yeah, as I was saying, we got
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: these ship at games, we're given away almost eighty thousand
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: dollars back to the ship at Nation community. One of
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: the members will make over twenty grand cash along with
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: other prizes. I think ten k plus for the next prize.
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: A ton of prize is given out. Ship at Nation
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: the best place to be. I do believe this early
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: bird offer might have ended today, but still best site
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: to sign up at. There's no better place to be.
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: We got all sports and we're crushing at all sports.
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: Tambo and Hoopill have you covered. Go check out their
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: video on these ship it games and you guys can
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: learn more about that. But eighty thousand dollars and it's
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: gonna keep growing throughout this NFL season. They're gonna have
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: a wild wild what's called Wildcard Wildcat entry each week
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: the three three three, and each win will be added
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: to that portion of it. So it's gonna keep growing
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: a lot of money giving back to the community. Go
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: sign up ship at Nation. Thank you for coming on sheets.
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: You have any last words you want to give out
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: before you we hop off of here.
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, don't be afraid again to play the guys that
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: you haven't heard of. Don't be afraid to play the
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: guys in the first fights. And it depends on what
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: type of person you are, like, if you want to
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: sweat the fights then obviously, you know, listen, this is
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: for fun to some degree, you know what I mean.
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: So so play play what you want to play, you
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: know whatever. But as far as as as ownership and
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: things like that, don't be afraid to play these these
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: these random guys because random randomness is good in UFC,
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: you know. So. Uh, And if you're gonna play the
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: big field GPPs, don't I wouldn't play both both main
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: events with say who is like Pereira, He's gonna be popular,
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: even that that first fight underdog could end up being popular.
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: Trying it a little bit different. I think you've talked
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: me into a little bit of this maybe fading that
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: that secondary main event fight just be a little more
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: creative now for me. And this is gonna turn into
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: kind of a promo for me. I'm kind of I
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: kind of let Saber sim and the sims and other
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: little techniques dictate who I end up playing, so I
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: keep my biases out of this a little bit. When
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: the big buyings happen, that's when I do my stuff,
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: you know, like I'll I'm totally playing a Costa for example,
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: I will guarantee you that in my five P fifty five. Okay,
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: it's just gonna happen. But when it comes to the
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: lottery stuff, I found that that that using something like
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: Sabersim that could take your biases out of this and
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: really try to find you low owned shots, uh, is
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: probably a better idea than trying to hand build.
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: I agree.
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: When I'm making just a couple of lineups, I always
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: feel like I have to handbuild. But when I'm making
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: you know, twenty or more, I love putting it into
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: saber sim and just taking all my biases away. I
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: do think that's the way to go, and it is
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: fun building lineups over there. So even when I do handbuild,
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: I always start over there at saber Sim. See what
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: it spits out if we're on the same track.
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: But yeah, we'll see how this one goes. All three
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: am start, especially when I got to go up to Michigan.
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if DFS is legal in Michigan.
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: I got a research to this stuff before I had
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: out of it.
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: I did not legal How could not be legal of Michigan?
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: If Hoop is there, that's true, Hoop lives there. Yeah,
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: what am I thinking? I'm an idiot? You're right, it's
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: definitely good. I remember the last time I went there
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: that I had some issue where DraftKings like uh locked
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: me out of my account. I don't know if it
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: was the betting side or if it was just from
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: going Indiana to Michigan being on when I was in Indiana.
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: What is this all? So? What is this all about?
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: Its retreat? It like the Hoop Compound or something, and
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: and and and a lot of like like that events
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: and and and pow wows or what do we got? What?
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: We're going to live the Live Team Championships on Saturday, Yes,
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: so we'll be out there. If anyone's out there, look
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: for us. And our are probably shipping Nation gear.
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: I got we got Ryder Ryder Cup coming to New
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: York in a month. That'll be fun.
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that will be fun New York and New York's
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: a wild a wild city, so everyone there is in
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: a hurry, man, So I guess I'd prefer Michigan for
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: this weekend.
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: I guess, Speaking of which, I gotta get out of here, all.
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: Right, Yeah me, Hey, coming on. Good luck to you,
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it. We'll see
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: you guys, next time I see you, water man,