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Duck Hunting a Drought · The Standard Sportsman

0:04
SPEAKER_03: Welcome to the Standard Sportsman Podcast, where duck and goose hunting's hottest topics meet a mission to leave the resource better than we found it.
0:12
SPEAKER_03: Lifelong Arkansas hunter conservationist Kasten Short and Brent Birch bring you thought-provoking conversations with insightful guests before, during, and after the season.
0:22
SPEAKER_03: Glad you're here.
0:24
SPEAKER_03: Let's get into it.
0:25
SPEAKER_02: Hey everybody, Kasten Short back with another episode of The Standard Sportsman.
0:29
SPEAKER_02: Joined as always with Brent Birch.
0:31
SPEAKER_02: Brent, it's been a little bit of a hiatus uh vacation.
0:34
SPEAKER_02: Uh welcome back, stateside.
0:36
SPEAKER_01: Uh yeah, yeah.
0:37
SPEAKER_01: I'd uh been away for a little bit um across the pond, as they say.
0:42
SPEAKER_01: But uh yeah, a little trip to London and then uh went to Paris and thankfully got out of there just before the chaos really took off.
0:52
SPEAKER_01: Um kind of feel fortunate to escaped all that because we were staying uh a couple blocks from the epicenter of all the unrest there.
1:01
SPEAKER_01: So glad to be back stateside.
1:03
SPEAKER_01: The problem is now I'm in a mad dash to try to get ready for early spec season, which is 10 days away when we're recording this.
1:12
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, yeah.
1:13
SPEAKER_02: And I think that'll be uh a big part of today's subject.
1:16
SPEAKER_02: But since since you mentioned chaos, uh maybe we should talk about, I don't really don't want to get into the the shooting an organ per se, just the reaction.
1:28
SPEAKER_02: Uh and it's the same every time something like that happens, but unless you've been under a rock, you you've probably noticed a lot of outcry for gun control.
1:37
SPEAKER_02: Um, how much of that maybe it's my fault because I engaged in some of it, so now Facebook is just feeding it to me constantly.
1:44
SPEAKER_02: But uh how much of that have you been seeing?
1:47
SPEAKER_01: Not as much because that that did happen while I was uh uh you know overseas and and missed you know being in the news cycle, but obviously seen quite a bit of it uh since I got back.
1:59
SPEAKER_01: Plus, midterm elections are coming, and Arkansas has you know issue two uh on the uh on the ballot, which is a right to keep and bear arms, um that's that's uh up for you know vote.
2:13
SPEAKER_01: Uh and basically, you know, to simplify that particular one, it's it's whether you can possess a firearm without without with no limitation.
2:21
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, basically anybody can have a gun anywhere you want to have it, uh that kind of deal.
2:26
SPEAKER_01: Uh and where the you know a vote for no, um it puts some guardrails on it.
2:32
SPEAKER_01: So uh you you definitely see in both sides of the fence, of course, being in a in a red state in the south, you got a lot of people advocating for uh the ability to uh to have a have a firearm without limitation, and uh and then of course you know events like that happen and and you see the uh the opposite side uh come and speak out against it.
2:54
SPEAKER_01: So yeah, it's definitely a hot topic, uh, but uh across the country, and and unfortunately uh, you know, terrible tragedies like that happen and and it brings it to the forefront again.
3:05
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and and you're you're 100% right, like terrible tragedy, but I think it's worth noting that it was ended by a a guy, a good guy with a gun, who violated the the no, you know, no firearms in a school.
3:18
SPEAKER_02: Like he willingly broke that law to go in there and do the right thing.
3:21
SPEAKER_02: And I think a lot of the the anti-gun people don't want to talk about that part of the story.
3:26
SPEAKER_02: Um, you know, how much worse would it have been?
3:28
SPEAKER_02: But but what gets me is so many of the people that are calling for you know legislation or or legal action that are just completely uninformed, um, who don't know about you know that kids can't buy guns, that you know, they don't understand how many laws were broken in the first place in in most any of these situations, and somehow believe that another law in the books is gonna stop them.
3:55
SPEAKER_02: I'm like you're already the individual in in any of these situations is already willing to commit the most heinous crime of murder.
4:02
SPEAKER_02: So I just don't I don't understand where some other legal loophole is gonna stop them.
4:10
SPEAKER_02: Um so then you know if you if you engage in this conversation, I'm willing to talk to anybody, you know.
4:14
SPEAKER_02: I mean, uh I'm not try not to be that hard-headed about things, but you you get to the point or they get to the point where they want you to to lock up all of your weapons.
4:25
SPEAKER_02: Now, I know sensible ownership, especially with kids in the house, you should be doing that anyway, but I'm not cool with a government that mandates me locking everything up and wants to come in my house and inspect and make sure that it's locked up.
4:37
SPEAKER_02: Um, I think that's a that's a road too far.
4:40
SPEAKER_02: Um, so that one always gets me, and then I you know, I saw another one yesterday that was talking about like AR-15s and particularly the the 223 round or 556, whatever you want to call it, and was talking like his you know, his quote in his video was how they uh super high power, extremely high velocity, you know, liquefies objects that it hits.
5:02
SPEAKER_02: And I'm like, you're talking about the 22 caliber round that's not even legal to hunt in a lot of states.
5:08
SPEAKER_02: Like, right?
5:09
SPEAKER_02: I mean it's it's great hyperbole to to you know say those things and and get all those clicks, but it's it's just wrong.
5:15
SPEAKER_02: And I don't know.
5:16
SPEAKER_02: I guess for both sides, like if you want to have meaningful conversation, you you've gotta drop the rhetoric and and actually discuss what it is you want to talk about, but I don't know.
5:27
SPEAKER_02: It doesn't seem like at least in my feed, there's many sensible um requests on the gun control side.
5:37
SPEAKER_01: Well, no, and that's just like any other political topic.
5:39
SPEAKER_01: I mean, you're gonna you're gonna get people coming down and strong conviction one way or the other, and they they seem to be the most uh verbal on things like this, and you got a lot of people in the middle.
5:50
SPEAKER_01: And and yeah, yeah, you know, if somebody wants to get a gun and and do harm, they're gonna they're gonna get their hands on one.
5:58
SPEAKER_01: Um you gotta keep in mind it's just like a lot of things.
6:03
SPEAKER_01: Um most a a large, large, large majority of the people that have firearms aren't looking to hurt someone else with it.
6:12
SPEAKER_01: Um so that's a that's a slippery slope of that that whole deal.
6:17
SPEAKER_01: And uh, you know, you get uh you know civil liberties taken away.
6:24
SPEAKER_01: It's um it always gonna it's gonna draw some draw some attention from both sides of the fence.
6:31
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and you you know you rarely get them back.
6:33
SPEAKER_02: Um and without going down the rabbit hole of this conversation, the my point in and discussing it today was as we approach season, and in some part of the country it's already open, like want to remind everybody the minority that we are A as waterfowl hunters in the hunting community, and then B as gun hunters in America.
6:52
SPEAKER_02: So we do a really good job of fighting amongst ourselves and being very tribal over you know what shotgun we shoot, what camo we wear, where we hunt, and how we hunt.
7:03
SPEAKER_02: Um, and we need to not be that divided because you know the political climate is just as ugly as it's ever been.
7:11
SPEAKER_02: And one thing we don't want to lose is our our rights to own guns and hunt with them.
7:16
SPEAKER_02: And maybe I'm maybe I'm radical in in this aspect.
7:20
SPEAKER_02: Um I don't like to see us give give any step in terms of gun control or restriction on firearms.
7:29
SPEAKER_02: Now, I'll say that to say I don't know that I'm a fan of open carry, completely open carry state.
7:33
SPEAKER_02: There's some ramifications there, but in terms of banning a certain gun or banning a magazine or banning something else, you know, once we take a step in that direction, it's really hard to go back.
7:45
SPEAKER_02: So we as hunters really need to be as unified as ever.
7:49
SPEAKER_02: Um I think that's my overreaching message on this today.
7:53
SPEAKER_01: Uh well, it's it's very true words, uh especially with you see some of the divisiveness over whatever in in the sport, and it's it's the same as anything else.
8:04
SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's just in the nature of society nowadays and and the ability to to uh think you have influence via social media, uh and I know we we kind of beat that drum a lot, but um yeah, uh unification over things like this are gonna be really important um going forward because there's a lot more of them than there are of us, and I think that's the point you're trying to make.
8:30
SPEAKER_01: And and so if you take our small our small audience and small community and and start chopping it up, then we don't carry a whole lot of weight um when when something's gonna be really important that we all need to rally behind.
8:45
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
8:46
SPEAKER_02: For sure.
8:47
SPEAKER_02: Uh so you guys try not to gripe too much at each other as season goes on.
8:53
SPEAKER_02: I'm sure it'll happen anyway.
8:54
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you can guarantee it.
8:58
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
8:59
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10:09
SPEAKER_02: Well, let's let's jump into it.
10:11
SPEAKER_02: Our main topic today, shocker, it's uh it's dry down here.
10:16
SPEAKER_02: I mean bad dry.
10:18
SPEAKER_02: You know, it's funny when we had Scott on back early in the year, we caught a pretty good rain right after he was on because we're talking about the drought with him and how bad it was.
10:27
SPEAKER_02: And we caught some rains there in the spring.
10:29
SPEAKER_02: I was like, well, all right, maybe we're out of this thing.
10:32
SPEAKER_01: But no, no, we are not.
10:34
SPEAKER_01: Not even close.
10:35
SPEAKER_01: Uh I immediately uh we got back on a Wednesday and by Saturday I was at the farm because we were in bad need to do some mowing in our moist soil unit, and obviously want to do that when it's dry because it's a lot easier on the equipment.
10:49
SPEAKER_01: Uh the equipment doesn't create a bunch of ruts that you gotta either drive your buggy through or walk through.
10:55
SPEAKER_01: So let's get this done.
10:58
SPEAKER_01: Um while it's dry, and uh I'm not I'm not exaggerating when I was I had some concern that the machine was gonna spark a fire.
11:07
SPEAKER_01: Uh it's so crisp, it is crispy.
11:10
SPEAKER_01: That's how dry it is.
11:12
SPEAKER_01: Um now I uh this particular unit, we have two two moist oil units on the farm, and and the lower one is in what used to be an old cypress break.
11:22
SPEAKER_01: Uh and so the ground stays on we have a little levee that cuts through the middle of it, and the blind sits on the levee, and you can hunt 360 degrees, and and the ducks come in there from all angles and all directions, and the the wind doesn't really matter.
11:36
SPEAKER_01: Um and the way the blind is situated, the I mean the your shots are 15-20 yards uh when they get in there uh because they cannot see you in the the way the blind's set up, and and um the south side of this blind is is majority of what we have at this old cypress break.
11:57
SPEAKER_01: So the ground stays kind of soft, but it's so dry we were able to get a piece of equipment in there and uh mow and open it up uh to where we're creating a little you know little fake sloughs and trails and then some open pockets where we can show some water.
12:12
SPEAKER_01: Uh otherwise the smart weed in there was so thick that it might be January before it started to really break down where the duck can see it, because usually we can't get equipment on that side.
12:22
SPEAKER_01: Um and you damn sure better have a dog if you knock down a duck on that on that side because a human has a really difficult time getting through there uh because it's a it's a bumper crop of smart weed.
12:32
SPEAKER_01: But uh yeah, it was um it was really, really dry uh to the point where um we were able to take that skid steer and go anywhere we wanted to, and that is typically not the case, even in a dry, I mean last year it was dry and but we couldn't get in there.
12:49
SPEAKER_01: This year is uh extremely dry, and that's just a kind of a a marker that tells you just how uh little rain we've gotten and and um I'm I have true concern how that first split's gonna look um from a if the ducks show up in number like they typically do, uh starting here with you know our Halloween mallards, where in the hell are they gonna go?
13:16
SPEAKER_01: Probably can't emphasize this enough.
13:19
SPEAKER_02: Um just how far reaching this drought can be.
13:24
SPEAKER_02: And I and I, you know, I guess I'll limit this to the MAV, right?
13:28
SPEAKER_02: Like I but I do I do think our drought, uh, and it's not just here, you know.
13:33
SPEAKER_02: I I mentioned before the show, some friends around Lake Charles doing some work in a marsh, you know, where they're able to get dump trucks in there right now, it's so dry.
13:42
SPEAKER_02: Um, so it's gonna affect uh a lot of this end of the flyway.
13:46
SPEAKER_02: I would say from Missouri all the way down Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas.
13:51
SPEAKER_02: Um, you know, it's gonna be pretty far reaching.
13:53
SPEAKER_02: And and you know, we can talk about the first split, but then I think you know, obviously that question goes on like when when does it end?
13:59
SPEAKER_02: You know, and we're gonna find out uh if ducks come from the sky or come from the ground, because you know, can you pump enough water to just make ducks show up?
14:08
SPEAKER_02: And I I am of the persuasion in this type of drought, you can't.
14:14
SPEAKER_02: Um, you know, I've been outspoken on here.
14:16
SPEAKER_02: I am 100% an advocate of early water and and quantity of habitat early and and good water early.
14:24
SPEAKER_02: But man, you look at diesel fuel prices right now, and it is hard to sit here and want to put out the same number of acres of water that we are known for doing when I'm concerned that that it won't matter.
14:37
SPEAKER_02: Um when it's that dry and there's so few places.
14:40
SPEAKER_02: I don't even know that the birds will concentrate in the areas that you do have water.
14:45
SPEAKER_02: Uh I think personally you're gonna see, you know, typically I would call it flyover.
14:51
SPEAKER_02: You're gonna see birds just cruise right past Arkansas, but I'm not sure that's better to the south.
14:57
SPEAKER_02: So do they bounce back?
14:59
SPEAKER_02: You know, what happens?
15:00
SPEAKER_02: Um I'll let you respond to some of that, but uh yeah, I have some serious concerns about the drought and if we can offset it with artificial water, even though it's still real water, you know what I mean?
15:12
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
15:13
SPEAKER_01: Uh yeah, I think it's a valid concern.
15:16
SPEAKER_01: Uh because there will be water on the landscape uh to some degree.
15:20
SPEAKER_01: Uh you obviously have uh places that are gonna uh put a put a volume of water out there to hold some ducks, but is it gonna be enough to hold the number that we're used to seeing?
15:34
SPEAKER_01: That there's reason to have skepticism on that.
15:39
SPEAKER_01: Um I do know some people are already putting water out uh because the ground is, I mean, the ground's gonna soak up a bunch of the early stuff.
15:48
SPEAKER_01: So you I mean you're gonna you're gonna have to really uh tap into the aquifier to uh to even get the you know a place to start holding water because the ground's so so dry.
15:59
SPEAKER_01: Um I mean we're talking cracked earth.
16:02
SPEAKER_01: Um see saw it quite a bit actually when we were down there Saturday.
16:06
SPEAKER_01: So um yeah, that's gonna obviously concentrate ducks more than probably we've seen the last even the last few dry falls that we've come on.
16:15
SPEAKER_01: This one's just seems to be a little more extreme.
16:18
SPEAKER_01: I saw a statistic yesterday from a local weather guy that for us to get back to average rainfall between now and the end of the year, we're gonna need 25 to 27 inches of rain.
16:34
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
16:35
SPEAKER_01: That's a lot.
16:37
SPEAKER_02: That's wild.
16:38
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and and that's not to say things can't turn quickly if if this super duper El Nino um actually shows up at some point, and you know, once it starts raining, it doesn't quit raining, kind of thing, uh, like some people are are believing it's gonna do.
16:56
SPEAKER_01: Uh yeah, I mean you can fill some some ditches and some bios and some and get some get some flooding going on and and all that, but it's like well, when is it gonna start?
17:07
SPEAKER_01: And it and and to your point, is it gonna matter?
17:10
SPEAKER_01: Because the duck, uh there's gonna be ducks show up here in the next, by the time this this episode airs, um, we're um you know, almost a week and a half out from Halloween.
17:22
SPEAKER_01: Not that they show up automatically on 1031, but it's you know, ducks are gonna big ducks are gonna start showing up uh in that window, either side of it.
17:31
SPEAKER_01: And right now they don't have a lot of places to go.
17:34
SPEAKER_01: I mean, I I've seen I've had a friend that owns some ground in the Cache River, and they deer hunted out of the riverbed uh this past weekend because there wasn't a drop of water in it uh in in this stretch they were in.
17:48
SPEAKER_01: So um, yeah, it it it's it's gonna be you got to really wonder what's gonna happen to these ducks that do show up and they look around the landscape and go, well man, they're not a lot hot a whole lot here for me.
18:03
SPEAKER_01: Uh and and Arkansas seems to be the the worst out of all the the surrounding states that hold ducks, seems to be in the worst shape.
18:12
SPEAKER_01: And I know there's some rain predicted coming up, uh, maybe even here in the next three or four days that Oklahoma's gonna get it, Kansas is gonna get some, Missouri's gonna get some, but it it misses us.
18:25
SPEAKER_01: Um, I mean, we don't have any rain uh on the forecast through the end of the month.
18:30
SPEAKER_01: Um so you're even sandwiching more of that 25 to 27 inches to get to normal into a shorter window because you're going another two weeks stretch with no rain.
18:40
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, that's right.
18:41
SPEAKER_02: I think the next, you know, moderate chance we've got is right around Halloween, 30 or 31st, and that could have changed today.
18:48
SPEAKER_02: I haven't looked at it.
18:49
SPEAKER_02: Um and that's the thing to take into consideration is you okay, 25 inches get back to normal, right?
18:56
SPEAKER_02: But I I don't know that we would see any runoff if we got a two-inch rain tonight.
19:01
SPEAKER_02: Um you know, and then if it's another week, uh you may take another inch or two before you'd see a runoff, you know, because that's gonna soak in and get pretty deep.
19:12
SPEAKER_02: So it's you know, again, I'm gonna say it's alarming, and and I'll go into this a little bit.
19:16
SPEAKER_02: We're talking about early spec season.
19:18
SPEAKER_02: So we had some show up on the cold front over the weekend, uh probably I don't know, less than five percent of what we should have, you know, where we should be 20,000 plus, we might have a thousand.
19:32
SPEAKER_02: Um and 20,000 will be kind of a low number for right around this time.
19:36
SPEAKER_02: Now, typically we'll get, you know, you get that October 10th, October 17th, somewhere there you catch a you know, the first kind of real cool front of the year, we see some right fronts, and then you know, maybe 10 days later we'll get another big push, right?
19:50
SPEAKER_02: And then in between there, it'll warm up and they'll kind of loaf and spread out and do those things.
19:54
SPEAKER_02: But right now, that second front is nowhere on the horizon.
19:58
SPEAKER_02: And we were scheduled to do uh an episode with DUTV, and we had a meeting yesterday, and I told him, I was like, look, if we're making the decision today, like you guys don't need to come.
20:08
SPEAKER_02: You know, what what we do have, I don't want to pursue.
20:12
SPEAKER_02: Uh, you know, yeah, we've got water out, we've got you know over 200 acres of water right now, but I don't want to harass what few birds are here.
20:19
SPEAKER_02: I definitely want to don't want to run off the ducks that are sitting here with them because it's a pretty valued commodity right now.
20:25
SPEAKER_02: Um, now I'm sure my neighbors will show up and tell you to come book your hunt now, but but they're not really here.
20:31
SPEAKER_02: Uh it's so the early spec season is gonna be a little bit of a of a long, you know, whatever number of days there.
20:37
SPEAKER_02: But but when does that when does that cycle break?
20:40
SPEAKER_02: You know, I keep hearing one meteorologist here that says, you know, when it does start, it's not gonna stop.
20:46
SPEAKER_02: But but I don't know.
20:47
SPEAKER_02: I mean, you you look back at some of the stuff that Scott sent us on these strong El Nino patterns, I don't know that we really get very above average rainfall.
20:58
SPEAKER_02: I mean, sometimes a little bit, but we're kind of in that, you know, those mid-latitude states where it's kind of mild and you know, could be above average, could be below average, but it's not this massive rain event.
21:09
SPEAKER_02: And then I'll I'll add that to the equation.
21:12
SPEAKER_02: If we start as dry as we are going to, I mean, barring some sort of miracle, if we start that dry, I think the worst thing on earth would be a massive flood in January, because you're going to take a hundred ducks and spread them over the entire state of Arkansas.
21:25
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, oh no, you're right about that.
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23:41
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you know, to kind of circle back to the speckle bellies on the landscape.
23:46
SPEAKER_01: We're definitely seeing some uh in you know, Lone Oak County, Arkansas County.
23:52
SPEAKER_01: Um, but they're concentrated where there is some water out, obviously.
23:57
SPEAKER_01: Um that's that's that's where they're gonna be and what's the what's the premium.
24:01
SPEAKER_01: Um but it's I'm a I'm with you.
24:04
SPEAKER_01: It's not the number that we should be seeing.
24:07
SPEAKER_01: Um because usually by this, you know, early spec rolls around, it's a it's a pretty good huntable number.
24:15
SPEAKER_01: And you're gonna see some people hunt them and do well.
24:19
SPEAKER_01: Um and and that's you know, that's gonna happen.
24:25
SPEAKER_01: But what is a kind of interesting to me or or something to really think about, even as say we don't get much more rain, and we go into that first split of duck season, and you've got uh some water, you're able to pump some water, which we'll do it.
24:40
SPEAKER_01: We'll we'll turn we'll turn some pumps on and and we'll we'll put some water out there.
24:46
SPEAKER_01: But you kind of have to tiptoe and baby the ducks that you do attract with that, because you could go you could go crazy that first split and think uh you know this is gonna be the best season ever based on how we start because you were able to shoot them over what little water there is, but are you risking are are you risking the rest of the season to bang on them that that first nine days or whatever it is?
25:14
SPEAKER_01: Um and I think that's a fine line to walk.
25:18
SPEAKER_01: Um not saying don't go out there and hunt them, um but I I I would I personally am gonna approach it with a level of caution that we got to think long term.
25:30
SPEAKER_01: We got to think what you know, the days we get in December and January, and if we really pressure and push a compromised duck, because this is this is gonna be similar to open water during a freeze, because the the potential is there for so little water to be in the landscape that man, you could go, you could burn them, and you could have maybe the greatest first split of all time, and you may really struggle the rest of the season if you if you push them too hard.
25:59
SPEAKER_01: Because if if that Super El Nino shows up and a bunch of water gets on the landscape, they're gonna find some place besides the spot where you burned them early, and you may not see them again.
26:12
SPEAKER_01: Um so it's a it's kind of a catch-22.
26:16
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, but we're all excited, we're all ready to hunt opening opening of duck season, but are you risking the rest of your season splits two and three by going crazy and split one just because you've got them, you know, kind of fish in a barrel kind of deal.
26:34
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, yeah, and there and so there will be some folks that definitely have success uh both in the early white front and in that first split.
26:41
SPEAKER_02: There's there's no doubt.
26:42
SPEAKER_02: Um it's dry and they've got nowhere else to go, right?
26:45
SPEAKER_02: So you're you're gonna have that.
26:46
SPEAKER_02: But at you know, at what cost?
26:48
SPEAKER_02: Um and again, you know, like with coming back to the fuel price and everything else, you know, what we've got right now is mostly the surface water that we hung on to, you know, when we drain rice.
26:58
SPEAKER_02: So that was kind of an easy decision to put that out.
27:00
SPEAKER_02: But it but it comes at a point now where it's you know, what's the minimum what's the minimum we can do the first 10 days, right?
27:08
SPEAKER_02: Like, are we gonna catch that rain?
27:10
SPEAKER_02: Like, what do I have to have to have a successful first split and then see where the chips fall?
27:15
SPEAKER_02: And that's that's kind of that big question is what happens thereafter.
27:19
SPEAKER_02: Um but yeah, you bring up a great point about you know, at what cost will it come you know in the first week of season to hammer on them?
27:28
SPEAKER_02: And you know, I I I doubt a lot of people are gonna have uh reservations or or self-control when it comes to that.
27:39
SPEAKER_02: You know, they've got birds and chances are they didn't last year, they you know struggle to the end of the season, so yeah, they're gonna go have a great week.
27:48
SPEAKER_02: And and you know, more power to them.
27:50
SPEAKER_02: If that's if that's how they want to do it, then you know that what happens afterwards is on them and they can live with that.
27:56
SPEAKER_02: Um so I don't know that it's necessarily a bad thing.
28:00
SPEAKER_02: I mean, yeah, it does kind of it is similar to ducks in a freeze, you know, when they've got nowhere to go, it is a little bit yeah, shooting fish in a barrel, I guess, like you said.
28:12
SPEAKER_01: Well, I mean, uh, and that's what's gonna be.
28:14
SPEAKER_01: And yeah, you're right, to each his own.
28:16
SPEAKER_01: Uh I'm just throwing that out there as food for thought, and it's something that's at the forefront of how I'm gonna manage you know the hunting pressure we put on them because I I I'd rather play the long game and oh yeah, and and uh have them all season versus look how many I shot here in November.
28:38
SPEAKER_01: Uh and that's uh that's tough.
28:42
SPEAKER_01: It is tough.
28:43
SPEAKER_01: You know, if it if you're in a spot that you know, maybe you've stacked up four or five tough seasons in a row, um you it'd be hard to have you know self-control, so to speak.
28:54
SPEAKER_01: Um so yeah, it's gonna it's gonna be uh it's gonna be interesting to see how that plays out across the landscape.
29:01
SPEAKER_01: Um I've just it's just at the forefront of my mind.
29:05
SPEAKER_01: Uh, I mean, we're pretty we're pretty heavy on the management of pressure in our in my neighborhood too, not just me, but but my neighbors as well.
29:15
SPEAKER_01: And I think that's why we're able to keep ducks around.
29:19
SPEAKER_01: Now, it also definitely has to do with location and definitely has to do with the habitat provided because I'm I've got some neighbors that do an incredible job.
29:28
SPEAKER_01: So uh there's no denying that.
29:30
SPEAKER_01: I I do know, and I'm I'm I'm two miles north of Hollowell Reservoir uh at Biomeda, and I know they've turned the pump on already.
29:39
SPEAKER_01: They're putting water in in that rest area.
29:42
SPEAKER_01: So there's not gonna be any water in the woods, but uh Hollow may hold more ducks than it has been the last handful of years because they've got uh they've got the well water running and they're gonna have some uh here for these Halloween mallards.
29:58
SPEAKER_01: So uh that'll that'll be an interesting dynamic as well because a lot of people in the area will tell you Hollowell doesn't hold what it used to hold.
30:07
SPEAKER_01: Um and you may see a different different uh maybe singing, maybe singing a different tune this year just because the lack of water on the landscape.
30:16
SPEAKER_01: Uh and apparently the Game of Fish has decided they're gonna have they're gonna have some out there.
30:21
SPEAKER_01: Serious waterfowl management isn't about reacting day to day.
30:24
SPEAKER_01: It's about making better decisions every season.
30:27
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30:31
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30:34
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30:49
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31:01
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31:06
SPEAKER_02: You know, you were talking about hunters and to each their own, you know.
31:11
SPEAKER_02: Wanted to be a little bit careful there that you and I don't come off too preachy about how people do things.
31:16
SPEAKER_02: Uh that's right.
31:17
SPEAKER_02: I I am in the same boat as you, you know, you're you're playing the long game.
31:21
SPEAKER_02: I can see the thought though, because I, you know, I just alluded to it a minute ago about a rain.
31:25
SPEAKER_02: Let's say you've got them that first week because you spent a ton of money pumping water.
31:29
SPEAKER_02: Man, you catch a rain that first week of December, four or five inches, and the whole ball game changes and and whatever you were trying to save is gone.
31:36
SPEAKER_02: Um, so I you know, I'm not gonna be too critical of those folks, but I will say this also, we are very, very short-sighted as duck hunters.
31:45
SPEAKER_02: And you know, we look at the right now, the instant gratification, you know, how many times have you heard someone defend, you know, killing two limits of ducks?
31:54
SPEAKER_02: Well, I didn't kill them all year, so we got them today.
31:56
SPEAKER_02: You know, like we just sometimes as a group we don't really uh we don't play the long game that well.
32:02
SPEAKER_02: But but you know, something else that I would that I was thinking about too, you're talking about running wells.
32:08
SPEAKER_02: What's gonna be the case with these big leases that we're seeing on the landscape now that have guaranteed water?
32:16
SPEAKER_02: You know, you say someone put together this lease or a club or whatever, there's so umpteen different business models out there, but you've committed to flood, you know, whatever thousands of acres, and you're having to do it with well water this year for the opening, you know.
32:31
SPEAKER_02: Are are you gonna spend a hundred thousand dollars to have the water?
32:34
SPEAKER_02: So you're upside down in what you're trying to do.
32:36
SPEAKER_02: Are you not gonna have water for the people you guarantee water for?
32:39
SPEAKER_02: How does that business model look after this year?
32:42
SPEAKER_02: How how happy are the people that are in that lease when they don't have water to hunt?
32:47
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, because you're right, there are a bunch of different uh you know business models out there.
32:53
SPEAKER_01: Some of them you got a lease rate that you've taken the you know the farm for or the woods for, and then water's separate, and then you have some that's in it's included.
33:04
SPEAKER_01: Now it does make you wonder how does it pencil if it is included and you're in a year like this where it's gonna take exponentially more than a than a even a dry, like the last two, I know the last two falls have been dry.
33:18
SPEAKER_01: This is a we're obviously extremely dry this year.
33:21
SPEAKER_01: So in an extremely dry year where you're gonna have to run more, I mean, is that cutting into your if you're the lessor, is that cutting into your margins because you didn't separate water out, or do you go back to your leasees and say, hey man, it's really dry for y'all to have water, this is more than normal.
33:40
SPEAKER_01: And diesel's more that's gonna make for some interesting conversations uh with with uh guys leasing ground to hunt because you could you could come into some real expense.
33:52
SPEAKER_01: Now, in in most cases, most duck hunters I know are gonna say, yeah, crank it.
33:59
SPEAKER_01: Uh we need that water.
34:01
SPEAKER_01: We got to have a place to hunt.
34:02
SPEAKER_01: Uh expense is no, um that's not gonna be the deciding factor.
34:07
SPEAKER_01: So I don't know.
34:10
SPEAKER_01: It's uh it is an interesting um deal going into this this season is how that's gonna shake out too.
34:18
SPEAKER_01: Uh now, you know, on my farm, two of our wells are electric.
34:23
SPEAKER_01: Or three, actually, but one is in Biomeda, and there is zero chance we're pulling water out of there.
34:28
SPEAKER_01: Um it's not even close to hitting uh the the relift there.
34:33
SPEAKER_01: So uh and then we have one on the east side of the farm that is diesel.
34:37
SPEAKER_01: Uh so um, you know, we'll we'll see what we do.
34:42
SPEAKER_01: We usually pump early in the season, we usually pump from the electric ones anyway.
34:46
SPEAKER_01: So um, but yeah, diesel um being at the premium it's at, that's gonna that's gonna rack up and uh you know you take elevated diesel price plus just how dry it is and how much water you're gonna have to put out to even get the water to start standing, uh it could get expensive really quick.
35:05
SPEAKER_02: Uh yeah, it's not uh not could get expensive, it's absolutely going to.
35:09
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
35:10
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
35:11
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's uh I mean it's just it it's the deal.
35:15
SPEAKER_01: And I I I what what's likely gonna happen, uh, and this gets back to the the original point was is there gonna be habitat for the ducks that do show up?
35:25
SPEAKER_01: Are we gonna get a lot of flybys?
35:27
SPEAKER_01: That's gonna compromise the amount of habitat that's put out there as well.
35:31
SPEAKER_01: Uh you may have just from the pure expense standpoint, go, okay, we're only gonna flood two spots, or we're not gonna flood the rest area yet, or we're not gonna do you know this or that, uh, trying to save pennies until it starts raining.
35:47
SPEAKER_01: Uh so we're gonna try to hang on with this limited amount of habitat out, and you know, is that gonna work?
35:53
SPEAKER_01: Uh is that gonna create pushing the ducks too hard, or is that gonna create a situation where they they don't even consider it?
36:00
SPEAKER_01: That's not enough for me to even want to stay in this area.
36:03
SPEAKER_01: So I'm gonna I'm gonna move on, I'm gonna move along.
36:06
SPEAKER_01: And then once they get the once they find a spot that's got what they're looking for, can you get them to leave it?
36:13
SPEAKER_01: Uh because odds are there's gonna be spots available for them that are rest area intended by people that have the means and the ability to put a lot of rest area type ground out there in suitable habitat, and they're not gonna touch those ducks.
36:32
SPEAKER_01: They're gonna they're gonna get the ones that leave it, come into their woods, or leave it and come into their farm.
36:37
SPEAKER_01: And the ducks are gonna get comfortable because those are people that probably intensely manage pressure.
36:41
SPEAKER_01: So the ducks are gonna concentrate and then they're gonna figure out, man, you you know, you think about it, this this spot isn't too bad.
36:47
SPEAKER_01: They don't shoot at us that often, they don't hunt every day.
36:51
SPEAKER_01: Um, I got plenty of places to spread out and hang out with my buddies.
36:54
SPEAKER_01: I'm not gonna go back to where I really like to hang out because I've already been there and there wasn't anything there for me.
37:02
SPEAKER_01: Uh, that's gonna be a really interesting dynamic to watch.
37:05
SPEAKER_01: And then when the rain does start, do they start getting out and foraging?
37:09
SPEAKER_01: Because we've said on the show numerous times, rain kills ducks.
37:12
SPEAKER_01: Uh that they know when it rains, there's new habitat available to them, and it are they gonna range and forage and do all the things that they do in what starts as it's set up to start as an extremely dry year, and it could be by Christmas, it could be Arkansas could be an ocean uh if if the Super El Nino goes like some people predict.
37:34
SPEAKER_01: Um so you could have real two huge extremes in a month's time that really could change the dynamic of the season.
37:41
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, yeah.
37:42
SPEAKER_02: And so I I'll I guess I'll put my reputation out here and make some predictions.
37:47
SPEAKER_02: Um and so I I think one, the the ducks are gonna be more willing to move than they would be during a freeze.
37:54
SPEAKER_02: I I think during a freeze, once they have committed to I'm not migrating, then it is just about survival in that spot and not the you know caloric expenditure that it would take to relocate in a mild start to a year like we're gonna have, I think they're much more likely to go find somewhere else to go.
38:13
SPEAKER_02: They can still dry feed, you know, they can do those things, but they're gonna go find the place where they're not getting burnt.
38:18
SPEAKER_02: Um, so that's gonna be a little bit different aspect than during a freeze.
38:22
SPEAKER_02: Uh, in terms of weather, I I wouldn't put my money on substantial rain by Christmas.
38:34
SPEAKER_02: I I don't know why.
38:36
SPEAKER_02: Maybe maybe it will be by Christmas, but I I feel like it could be too little too late.
38:41
SPEAKER_02: Like maybe it's very late January, maybe it's into early February.
38:45
SPEAKER_02: I I lean a little bit more that way, and that just comes from the farming background.
38:50
SPEAKER_02: It always seems like our weather pattern shifts after duck season.
38:54
SPEAKER_02: You know, if we were really wet during season, then it gets really dry in February.
38:58
SPEAKER_02: You know, if we're really dry, then we start getting in the, you know, we're almost in the field and then it starts raining and it won't dry up until May.
39:05
SPEAKER_02: You know, it seems like late January, into February is kind of when we hit a crossover period.
39:12
SPEAKER_02: And given that we're going from record drought to what could be substantial rainfall, I'm gonna lean more towards January than I am December.
39:20
SPEAKER_02: And Christmas is close.
39:22
SPEAKER_02: Um, but I don't I don't think it'll be really early December.
39:25
SPEAKER_02: I think we'll roll up to Christmas awful dry.
39:28
SPEAKER_02: Um, so I say that to say my prediction for the season is we're looking at another really difficult year, uh in at least in Arkansas and then across the majority of the MAV.
39:41
SPEAKER_02: Um, you know, I don't I don't think bird numbers really support a tremendous year.
39:46
SPEAKER_02: I know there was some hope that numbers would be up a little bit uh based on ponds and counts and all that.
39:51
SPEAKER_02: And that could well be the case.
39:53
SPEAKER_02: Uh you could see that in some areas, but the the drought is just I don't know, it's a it's a two-headed monster right now, and it's looming larger than any dry period I've ever seen.
40:05
SPEAKER_02: Um, I've never seen anything like it.
40:08
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I've heard a lot of people say that.
40:10
SPEAKER_01: Uh dry so they can remember those kind of things.
40:13
SPEAKER_01: Uh but you're right.
40:16
SPEAKER_01: Kind of going back to how you started there.
40:19
SPEAKER_01: Uh a freeze is different.
40:22
SPEAKER_01: Ducks during a freeze are are much more desperate uh because they've got to eat to because they're burning so many calories staying warm.
40:31
SPEAKER_01: If it if it's uh you know just a mild winter, uh they can they can sit and be still for long periods of time uh because they're not burning those calories staying warm.
40:42
SPEAKER_01: So yeah, you're you're right about that.
40:43
SPEAKER_01: It's a good point to make.
40:45
SPEAKER_01: But um, but yeah, you know, duck numbers, it'll be interesting on that.
40:49
SPEAKER_01: I I've we've both talked to a handful of people that have been to Canada um at different times starting from September until even yesterday.
41:04
SPEAKER_01: Uh they a lot of the folks are encouraged by the number of ducks they're seeing and then the amount of water that's on the landscape.
41:13
SPEAKER_01: Um, but you know, we we still got to get them here.
41:16
SPEAKER_01: And I'm not alluding to they're gonna shortstop because of corn in Missouri.
41:21
SPEAKER_01: That's not what I'm saying.
41:22
SPEAKER_01: Um you know, weather does have to to make them want to move and and get down to this part of the world, other than the the cohort of you know, mallards that they're coming here regardless.
41:34
SPEAKER_01: Uh, and those are the ones we see uh you know around this Halloween time period.
41:38
SPEAKER_01: But you know, we usually get another push uh there in oh the first weekend in December, maybe the second weekend in that window.
41:48
SPEAKER_01: That's usually we get another one, and we really don't pick up a lot of ducks after that.
41:52
SPEAKER_01: They redistribute on the landscape, but we don't get another one.
41:55
SPEAKER_01: So you're right, if that uh big rain comes in January, it may just reshuffle the ducks that are already here.
42:03
SPEAKER_01: Um, it's hard really hard for us to pick up new ones uh that after the after Christmas, pretty much.
42:10
SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, and the the transmitter data backs that up and game and fish commission's uh aerial surveys back that up.
42:17
SPEAKER_01: Uh January can activate the ones already here, but as far as a big push, it's this is that's just not how it works, uh, at least for us down here on this end of the flyway.
42:27
SPEAKER_01: So yeah, it's um I don't know.
42:30
SPEAKER_01: I'm with you.
42:31
SPEAKER_01: This is uh this is gonna be a really, really interesting season with uh how dry it's starting and the potential of what could come behind it in the form of precipitation.
42:42
SPEAKER_01: And uh it's kind of like we don't know.
42:45
SPEAKER_01: Uh there's no there's no firm footing to stand on and go, man, this is how it's gonna play out, because uh even the weatherman can't tell you.
42:53
SPEAKER_01: Um and I'm not talking about the ones that do it for social media glory.
42:58
SPEAKER_01: I'm talking about weathermen that really think through all this stuff and try to be realistic and and straightforward and and everything else.
43:05
SPEAKER_01: And they're not real sure.
43:07
SPEAKER_01: So how are we as hunters supposed to be real sure?
43:09
SPEAKER_01: So we kind of just kind of we kind of gotta just go hunt and let it play out because um it's it's really hard to say what it's gonna do and and what it's gonna look like from uh when the season starts in November until it ends in in end of January.
43:26
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43:46
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44:00
SPEAKER_02: You you're right.
44:00
SPEAKER_02: You know, I don't want to sound too doom and gloom.
44:03
SPEAKER_02: Um you know, I I was talking to a listener of the show this morning and and mentioned just, you know, how us and and conservation organizations should be brutally honest about situations.
44:15
SPEAKER_02: You know, like we don't we don't need to try to uh uh blow sunshine up everyone's rear end.
44:20
SPEAKER_02: Like let's be honest, we can deal with facts.
44:22
SPEAKER_02: We're adults here.
44:23
SPEAKER_02: I'm still gonna go hunt, I'm still gonna enjoy my time in the outdoors, but my expectations are are pretty low for this year.
44:30
SPEAKER_02: So you know, not to be too negative, but it is what it is.
44:34
SPEAKER_02: Uh we we were being dealt a hand, unlike you know, we've had dry years.
44:38
SPEAKER_02: Uh we started last year dry, but this one is is altogether different.
44:43
SPEAKER_02: Um, I can equate this just to food plots, right?
44:46
SPEAKER_02: Like we we had no trouble growing fall food plots last year, but you know, we've we've split up our food plots this year.
44:54
SPEAKER_02: We rolled the dice and planted some on a rain we weren't supposed to get.
44:58
SPEAKER_02: Uh we actually did get that rain and got that food plot up, or those plots.
45:02
SPEAKER_02: Uh a week or so later, we're supposed to get a hurricane and good rain.
45:05
SPEAKER_02: So we planted the rest of it, and we didn't get any rain, and that that's struggling like crazy right now.
45:11
SPEAKER_02: So, you know, I don't remember a year ever where you couldn't at least get some wheat out of the ground with any kind of success.
45:17
SPEAKER_02: And this year seems to be it.
45:18
SPEAKER_02: So we are it's just hard to describe if you're not here and you're not looking at it.
45:23
SPEAKER_02: It's hard to describe how dry it is and what it's gonna take to overcome that.
45:26
SPEAKER_02: And then hard to wrap your head around what it's really gonna do.
45:29
SPEAKER_02: What does it really mean?
45:31
SPEAKER_02: Um, you know, we can draw on past experiences, we can look at the way things have gone before, but it's you know, it's a guessing game right now.
45:38
SPEAKER_02: Um, but we'll still be there on opening day.
45:41
SPEAKER_02: Still, that's right.
45:42
SPEAKER_01: That's right, that's right.
45:44
SPEAKER_01: Well, you know, as tough as maybe this this fall has been, uh, because you know, we started out great.
45:50
SPEAKER_01: May, you know, we had a lot of rain in May.
45:52
SPEAKER_01: Uh, I thought everything was gonna be great, and then it just stopped raining.
45:56
SPEAKER_01: So um, and another little caveat to this too, which is unique to Arkansas, um, and that this is what our eyes see on the landscape every day, so that's why we talk about it.
46:08
SPEAKER_01: Uh, but uh we can circle all the way back to you know the the downturn in in rice farming uh and how little uh will be on the landscape compared to to normal years, you know, lots of soybeans on the on the landscape, but soybeans don't last real long.
46:24
SPEAKER_01: Um you know, once they get wet, they rot pretty fast and don't provide much value.
46:30
SPEAKER_01: But yeah, what's that rice crop gonna how's that gonna impact it?
46:34
SPEAKER_01: So uh I'm the same as you.
46:35
SPEAKER_01: I'm not trying to be doom and gloom, but these are these are factors that that are gonna be interesting when we pick up and talk about this stuff and how the season went in February, these are items that we're gonna circle back to and go, yeah, that made a difference.
46:48
SPEAKER_01: No, that really didn't matter.
46:50
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it was kind of hard to tell uh because these are these are some of the factors that are gonna weigh in with all this.
46:57
SPEAKER_01: Uh, you know, the the mass crop isn't great this year either.
47:00
SPEAKER_01: Uh so because it's been so dry.
47:02
SPEAKER_01: Um I haven't I haven't seen much evidence of uh the mass crop being strong and saw and a lot of uh a lot of acorns were were kind of blanks, like uh there's nothing inside them, they're hollow.
47:13
SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, so all these things that uh are gonna be interesting to evaluate, but you know, we get the right the right weather at the right time, it could col totally flip all that on its head and and duck season could be great.
47:29
SPEAKER_01: Um but it'll be interesting to come back in February and kind of retouch on these issues to see what really shook out and what didn't.
47:36
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it will be.
47:37
SPEAKER_02: Um, you know, and and whatever the outcome, I'm sure something will happen that we didn't think about or talk about, so it'll be hard to pin down what worked and what didn't, why it worked and why it didn't.
47:48
SPEAKER_02: It's kind of the same in farming, right?
47:50
SPEAKER_02: Like we'll plant one variety of seed this year and it's great, and next year the same variety stinks.
47:56
SPEAKER_02: And what was the difference, you know?
47:58
SPEAKER_02: Have some guesses, but uh if we could nail it down exactly, we'd we'd all be doing something different.
48:04
SPEAKER_01: Nope, you're right.
48:05
SPEAKER_01: Uh and I and I hope I don't know, we're we're so due for something to turn in our favor and and turn in the ducks' favor too.
48:14
SPEAKER_01: I mean, the the you know, water in the landscape doesn't just benefit us from a hunting standpoint, it benefits us from a uh, you know, benefits the ducks, and and the ducks are gonna need it to you know be in good health to go back north and make a bunch of babies.
48:27
SPEAKER_01: Hopefully that landscape on the PPR stays as wet as people are reporting it is now and it only builds off that.
48:33
SPEAKER_01: Maybe we get a bump, but but man, we got to be able to take care of them while they're down here and and that requires water, and that's what that's what we're short on right now.
48:42
SPEAKER_01: But we'll see.
48:44
SPEAKER_01: We'll see what this Cel Nino action can do for us.
48:48
SPEAKER_01: And the ducks.
48:49
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, yeah.
48:50
SPEAKER_02: Just uh waiting game right now.
48:52
SPEAKER_02: That's right.
48:54
SPEAKER_01: Well, uh I I think that's a wrap for us.
48:57
SPEAKER_01: Um we'll uh we'll uh get ready for early spec season, see how that goes.
49:02
SPEAKER_01: Um, we'll have an episode uh one more before that kicks off.
49:06
SPEAKER_01: So maybe we'll talk about speckabullies a little bit.
49:08
SPEAKER_01: Maybe some more will keep showing up.
49:10
SPEAKER_01: Uh maybe some more duck water gets on the landscape, uh, they'll have a place to to sit and and hopefully not get shot up too terribly bad.
49:18
SPEAKER_01: Um I know people really like to jump all over that.
49:21
SPEAKER_01: And this would be a great year for early spec season to be about two days.
49:28
SPEAKER_01: Um but it's it's not gonna be.
49:31
SPEAKER_01: It's not gonna be, and they're gonna they're gonna get they're gonna get hammered pretty good.
49:35
SPEAKER_01: But um anyway, uh that that's uh that's all we got for today.
49:39
SPEAKER_01: We appreciate you listening and we'll uh we'll check you next time.
49:42
SPEAKER_01: Thanks.