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Ryan Bridge: What strategic voting will do · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: There's an irony to this latest poll, which won't be
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: lost on Labour. This is, of course, one poll and
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: should be read as such. The big parties are getting,
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: this is the general trend, big parties are getting smaller,
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: smaller parties are getting bigger. The trend, I think, will
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: reverse course a bit on polling day because not everyone
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: who's polled bothers to vote and not everyone who votes
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: is polled. But the fact the Greens have half the
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: support of Labour and would probably have quite a big
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: say in government is no good thing for the centre
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: vote that Labour has been courting. It's like BO to
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: a centrist voter. Every time a poll has Labour slumping
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: and its coalition partners rising, the chances of Chloe Swarbrick
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: getting finance and tax hikes become a real thing. This
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: is no good for Hipkins because those scenarios scare away
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: the centre votes that he and the Nats are desperately
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: trying to attract. You are the company you keep, and
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: if the company you keep says comrade a lot, it
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: can be a little off-putting for people who don't use
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: that language. The opposite logic but same principle and problem
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: applies to the right. Right voters don't so much want
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: a right-wing government as they loathe the idea of another
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: left-wing one. They worry about borrowing, ill-disciplined spending, the interest
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: bill now the fourth biggest line item on the government's books.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: If an engineered overhang could stop that from happening... they
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: might just ignore John Key and split their votes. Sure,
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: you would lose a few star ministers from National, but
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: better an ACT or New Zealand First Minister around a
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: cabinet table the coalition still runs than no seats around
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: a table they don't. This is one poll. It should
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: be taken with a grain of salt, of course, as always.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: But at this stage of the cycle, polls can start
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: to dictate voter behaviour, especially if you are thinking about
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: voting strategically. For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge,
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: listen live to News Talk ZB from 5 a.m. weekdays
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.