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Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Welcome, everybody, to the Best Betting Show Ever. It's Wednesday,
- 0:04Speaker 1: October 21st. I got Ralph Michaels with me and Art DeCesar.
- 0:09Speaker 1: We are here to make you guys money. Best Betting
- 0:12Speaker 1: Show Ever. We're going to take apart every two NHL
- 0:16Speaker 1: games on the board. We're going to do an NBA rundown.
- 0:21Speaker 1: We've got NFL Week 7 sides, College Football Week 8
- 0:25Speaker 1: early thoughts, Ralph Michaels' trends and angles, our parlay of
- 0:28Speaker 1: the day. but we start with you, Art DeCesar. Sharp bets.
- 0:32Speaker 1: What are you hearing, seeing out there? What do we
- 0:35Speaker 1: need to know?
- 0:36Speaker 2: In the one college football game tonight, they took Sam
- 0:38Speaker 2: Houston at plus three. It's now two and a half.
- 0:41Speaker 2: Nothing to report in the NHL press. Obviously a small slate,
- 0:44Speaker 2: two games, nothing to give out. NBA, they took the
- 0:47Speaker 2: Hornets plus three. They're now a favorite. Took the under
- 0:50Speaker 2: in the heat game, 243 and a half. And they
- 0:53Speaker 2: laid the eight and a half with the Rockets. That's
- 0:55Speaker 2: moved up to 10 and a half. And that total...
- 0:58Speaker 2: In the Heat games, also moved like three and a half,
- 1:00Speaker 2: four points to the under. Yeah.
- 1:02Speaker 1: Ton of NBA today. Ralph, you excited about the season starting?
- 1:08Speaker 3: I am, but I do very limited NBA. I'm just
- 1:10Speaker 3: more of a situational handicapper. I'm not a huge fan
- 1:14Speaker 3: of it. You know, you're trying to handicap motivation and
- 1:16Speaker 3: the team. So limited action for me, but I keep
- 1:19Speaker 3: my finger on the pulse.
- 1:23Speaker 1: You know, it's so funny, Ralph and Art, the NBA,
- 1:26Speaker 1: as a guy who's been betting professionally for over 30 years,
- 1:30Speaker 1: the NBA was a sport where I really couldn't figure out.
- 1:33Speaker 1: I mean, probably two decades, and I was struggling. College
- 1:37Speaker 1: basketball was the sport to bet on. In the last
- 1:41Speaker 1: five years, things have changed for me. My college basketball
- 1:46Speaker 1: is still good, but, man, my NBA over the last
- 1:49Speaker 1: four years has been unbelievable. I have not had a
- 1:52Speaker 1: losing NBA season in four straight years, over 100 units
- 1:56Speaker 1: of profit, and I don't know what's changed. I mean,
- 2:00Speaker 1: I'm still doing everything exactly the same way as I
- 2:03Speaker 1: always was doing it, And now I have four solid
- 2:07Speaker 1: years under my belt of winning NBA. Ralph, I'll go
- 2:12Speaker 1: to you first. You don't do NBA much, but have
- 2:15Speaker 1: you found any changes in the NBA that could explain
- 2:19Speaker 1: why I'm consistently winning all the time?
- 2:21Speaker 3: I have not, obviously, Prez. You may not think you've
- 2:25Speaker 3: changed things, but obviously you've adjusted your patterns or stayed
- 2:29Speaker 3: away from situations that were negative or perhaps more sides
- 2:32Speaker 3: or more totals. So You know, I'll say this. The
- 2:36Speaker 3: opposite is true in college basketball. I had a couple
- 2:40Speaker 3: amazing college basketball seasons, and then I just did not
- 2:44Speaker 3: transition quick enough with the NILs and all those transfers
- 2:48Speaker 3: that you couldn't do the same work in the summer
- 2:50Speaker 3: for college basketball. So the same approach will hold true
- 2:53Speaker 3: for me when college basketball starts on November 1st. I'll
- 2:57Speaker 3: be very selective those first couple games until we get
- 3:00Speaker 3: the eye test and the actual stat profiles for the teams.
- 3:03Speaker 1: Art, what has happened in the NBA? Do you find
- 3:06Speaker 1: it's become easier to bet or is this just me
- 3:10Speaker 1: getting wiser in life?
- 3:13Speaker 2: Well, it could be, you know, like Ralph said, obviously
- 3:15Speaker 2: you adjust. But I mean, obviously the three pointer has
- 3:18Speaker 2: changed everything. I remember when I first came to Vegas
- 3:21Speaker 2: and I would handicap the NBA, I would handicap it
- 3:23Speaker 2: through the referees. And I would use that coverage thing
- 3:26Speaker 2: every day. And I would see who the three refs are.
- 3:29Speaker 2: And they had stats like LeBron James. And then the
- 3:32Speaker 2: threes just whacked it out. Everyone shoots 73s a game.
- 3:35Speaker 2: And it's just harder to handicap.
- 3:38Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 3:39Speaker 1: Guys, let me know your thoughts. Hit the like button.
- 3:42Speaker 1: Subscribe to our channel. Do you bet the NBA? Are
- 3:45Speaker 1: you a winning, profitable NBA better? One thing I will
- 3:50Speaker 1: tell you guys, public service announcement, never. tees in the NBA.
- 3:55Speaker 1: Ralph and Art, anything there? Yeah, Art's laughing. Never, ever, ever.
- 4:02Speaker 1: It's amazing, dude. You get red points in the NBA.
- 4:08Speaker 3: Hey, don't put your hand on a red hot oven.
- 4:11Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah.
- 4:13Speaker 2: Prez, when we would see NBA teasers with college basketball
- 4:17Speaker 2: teasers in the back room, we would do exactly what
- 4:20Speaker 2: I just did. We would laugh.
- 4:22Speaker 1: Yeah, there you go. Okay, parlay. This is an abbreviated show.
- 4:27Speaker 1: Everybody know Joe Ranieri today. Parlay of the day. I really,
- 4:31Speaker 1: really like the under in the Florida-Ottawa game. What a matchup.
- 4:34Speaker 1: Brady Kachuk coming home. He is going to be booed
- 4:37Speaker 1: at a level that Marchenko thought he was like, you know,
- 4:41Speaker 1: they were having a love fest in Columbus compared to
- 4:45Speaker 1: what's going to go down in Ottawa tonight. I still
- 4:47Speaker 1: think this game goes under. I think it's going to
- 4:49Speaker 1: be tight checking. And I think almost Ottawa under. Yeah. Ralph,
- 4:55Speaker 1: what do you like?
- 4:58Speaker 3: I don't have this on because my toupee play won
- 5:01Speaker 3: last year. I'm going to do an abbreviated. This is
- 5:04Speaker 3: a free play for the parlay and my toupee play, guys.
- 5:07Speaker 3: It's a doubleheader. It's under the first half, Sam Houston
- 5:11Speaker 3: and New Mexico State tonight in the CUSA game. There
- 5:15Speaker 3: are 22 and a half. There are a couple 23
- 5:17Speaker 3: and a half, so make sure you shop. I'll use
- 5:20Speaker 3: 22 and a half for the show, to be fair,
- 5:21Speaker 3: that everyone's going to be able to grab that number.
- 5:24Speaker 1: And that is officially the two pay play, right? You
- 5:27Speaker 1: lose that play. You were to pay next week. Okay.
- 5:30Speaker 3: Part.
- 5:31Speaker 1: There you go. What do you got going, uh, for
- 5:34Speaker 1: our parlay?
- 5:36Speaker 2: It's actually my free play. That's up on my page.
- 5:39Speaker 2: I said, we talked about him yesterday. I think he's
- 5:41Speaker 2: going to win MVP and lead the league in scoring
- 5:44Speaker 2: over 32 and a half points with Luca opening night.
- 5:46Speaker 2: He's going to have a big night.
- 5:47Speaker 1: Yeah, that's there you.
- 5:49Speaker 3: Go, guys.
- 5:50Speaker 1: Uh, What do you expect, Art, Ralph? What do you
- 5:53Speaker 1: expect of the Lakers this year, Ralph? Well, you think
- 5:55Speaker 1: they're going to be a good team?
- 5:58Speaker 3: Again, Prez, that's not, you know, that's not for me
- 6:01Speaker 3: to gauge. I don't look at the players preseason. I
- 6:03Speaker 3: don't study the NBA like that. So, Art, I will
- 6:06Speaker 3: have to go with you. Obviously, you think Luka is
- 6:08Speaker 3: going to be the leading scorer. Does that dictate for wins?
- 6:12Speaker 2: Well, I mean, Prez, we talked about this yesterday, and
- 6:14Speaker 2: the reason why I thought he profiled to maybe win MVP,
- 6:17Speaker 2: if you look at their division, the Lakers are like
- 6:20Speaker 2: minus 150 to win their division. Their division's terrible. I
- 6:24Speaker 2: think the West is a little bit weaker than the East.
- 6:27Speaker 2: Top to bottom, obviously, the West has the two big
- 6:29Speaker 2: boys up top. But, yeah, the Lakers should be right
- 6:32Speaker 2: around their win total, between 45 on a low and
- 6:35Speaker 2: as high as probably 50.
- 6:36Speaker 1: Yeah. There you go. Yeah, go ahead, Ralph.
- 6:41Speaker 3: Let me throw in a couple stats that I do
- 6:43Speaker 3: have just for NBA game number one. So you guys know,
- 6:46Speaker 3: you know, I know there were three games last night.
- 6:48Speaker 3: The over-unders went one and two. But the last two years,
- 6:52Speaker 3: game number one have gone 22 and six, 79% to
- 6:56Speaker 3: the over. We'll see what happens tonight. And another situation.
- 7:01Speaker 3: Go ahead, Price.
- 7:02Speaker 1: No, no, no. Go ahead, brother.
- 7:04Speaker 3: Again, they did go one and two over-under last night.
- 7:06Speaker 3: So we'll see it happens. But also in game number one,
- 7:11Speaker 3: away underdogs of two and a half or more with
- 7:15Speaker 3: a total of 226 in game number one only have
- 7:20Speaker 3: gone 22 and 10, 69% against the spread. There are
- 7:24Speaker 3: nine teams that fit that category. Nuggets, Cavs, Kings, Suns, Warriors, Mavs, Bulls, Hawks, Bucks.
- 7:31Speaker 3: So something to look at tonight for NBA game number
- 7:33Speaker 3: one for most of the league.
- 7:35Speaker 1: Brilliant stuff. Okay, so Ralph, you want to talk about revenge, right?
- 7:41Speaker 1: That's my ex. My ex-wife wants to talk about it
- 7:44Speaker 1: as well. So if you could give her a call.
- 7:48Speaker 3: No problem. And a friend from Detroit called me and no,
- 7:52Speaker 3: it wasn't Johnny Detroit. And he said, oh my God,
- 7:57Speaker 3: I love the Lions the next two weeks.
- 8:01Speaker 1: Why?
- 8:01Speaker 3: They have division double revenge this upcoming week. They have
- 8:06Speaker 3: division double revenge last week because they got swept again. Remember,
- 8:10Speaker 3: they got swept against those two teams. And the Jets
- 8:13Speaker 3: also have double revenge. So he reached out to me
- 8:15Speaker 3: and said, I bet home favorites that have double revenge
- 8:19Speaker 3: playing the first game of the season. So Detroit lost
- 8:22Speaker 3: both times last year. This is the first time they're
- 8:24Speaker 3: playing their division foe this year with double revenge. Home
- 8:29Speaker 3: favorites have only gone 45 and 59, 45.4% against the spread.
- 8:36Speaker 3: So exactly what you don't think. You think, oh my God,
- 8:38Speaker 3: you're the better team. You're at home. Double revenge, 45.4%.
- 8:41Speaker 3: Home dogs, 84 and 84, 50%. Away favorites. Again, the
- 8:44Speaker 3: better team with double revenge, 18 and 20, 47.4%. So
- 8:47Speaker 3: the favorites with double revenge, under 47%. Away dogs, 136
- 9:03Speaker 3: and 98, 58%. So the only positive situation with double
- 9:07Speaker 3: revenge is as an away dog playing for the first time.
- 9:11Speaker 3: Something you probably wouldn't think of in the NFL. These
- 9:14Speaker 3: teams that are so fired up.
- 9:16Speaker 1: So we're talking about, for instance, the Green Bay Packers, right?
- 9:21Speaker 3: We're talking fading Detroit this week, fading Detroit and the Jets.
- 9:26Speaker 3: Both of those teams have double revenge as a home
- 9:29Speaker 3: favorite this week. Detroit will also have double revenge as
- 9:32Speaker 3: a home favorite next week.
- 9:33Speaker 1: Next week.
- 9:34Speaker 3: We'll see how that pans out.
- 9:37Speaker 1: Wonderful stuff. Ralph Michaels. Thanks for doing this, man. You
- 9:40Speaker 1: guys could see him on wager talk today as well.
- 9:43Speaker 1: Andy Lang, host of that show. Phenomenal show. I'm on
- 9:47Speaker 1: it today too. Ralph Michaels, what do you have for
- 9:50Speaker 1: the clients? Then we're going to let you go unless
- 9:52Speaker 1: you got more stuff. Cause frankly, I'll listen to you
- 9:54Speaker 1: all day.
- 9:56Speaker 3: All good.
- 9:56Speaker 1: Nope.
- 9:57Speaker 3: I passed today a light card on Wednesday. not going
- 10:00Speaker 3: to force midweek action. I am going to have a
- 10:03Speaker 3: college football. 5% had two of them last week on
- 10:06Speaker 3: a nice seven and two college football run football weekend warrior.
- 10:10Speaker 3: The only way to go all of Saturday college football,
- 10:13Speaker 3: all of Sunday NFL total cost $ 49. every 5% included,
- 10:18Speaker 3: and also, best part, as soon as you sign up
- 10:21Speaker 3: for Weekend Warrior, you get the plays from me, Prez, Art, anyone,
- 10:26Speaker 3: as soon as they're released. So you're getting the line
- 10:28Speaker 3: value that we bet the game at, and that we
- 10:31Speaker 3: want each and every one of our clients to play.
- 10:34Speaker 1: Ralph Rick and Michaels, everybody. Outstanding stuff. Okay, boys, NBA.
- 10:39Speaker 1: I have a play going today, Art, in the NBA.
- 10:43Speaker 1: It's a total. My NBA totals are so rare, dude.
- 10:46Speaker 1: And like all total bets, I'm on a 17 and
- 10:50Speaker 1: five run coming into the season. 17 wins, five losses
- 10:54Speaker 1: on my NBA totals. As I told you guys at
- 10:57Speaker 1: the top of the show, I've had four profitable NBA
- 11:00Speaker 1: seasons in a row. I'm up over 100 units over
- 11:03Speaker 1: that time. I have an NBA total. The chances of
- 11:06Speaker 1: me having an NBA total in the next week is slim.
- 11:10Speaker 1: These plays do not happen often. Head over to WagerTalk,
- 11:13Speaker 1: grab it. I also have a 5% NFL total. It's
- 11:18Speaker 1: up now. And well, you know about my totals, people.
- 11:22Speaker 1: So head over and grab it. What do you got going, Art?
- 11:26Speaker 2: Yeah, I have an NBA play up as well. I
- 11:29Speaker 2: started the season off with a win yesterday, Pistons Moneyline.
- 11:32Speaker 2: So it's always nice to start the season off 1-0.
- 11:35Speaker 2: We go again today on the hardwood pass in the NHL,
- 11:38Speaker 2: pass on the college football game. All my football will
- 11:42Speaker 2: be up like it has been throughout the season. You'll
- 11:44Speaker 2: see the message on my page. Thursdays, usually the college
- 11:47Speaker 2: football goes up. Friday, the NFL. If anything ever changes,
- 11:50Speaker 2: I will update my message on my page. And I
- 11:53Speaker 2: got free plays up as well. Check out the page, wt.buzz.ad.
- 11:57Speaker 1: There we go. Guys, we've only got about five, six
- 11:59Speaker 1: minutes left of the show. We're not going to do
- 12:01Speaker 1: an NBA rundown, but I will give you an NBA pick,
- 12:05Speaker 1: and that is on the Sacramento Kings at plus four
- 12:09Speaker 1: and a half. They're playing the LA Clippers tonight. You
- 12:12Speaker 1: can read my analysis over at Wager Talk. I think
- 12:16Speaker 1: they could win this game outright. I don't know where
- 12:18Speaker 1: scoring is going to come from with this LA Clippers team,
- 12:22Speaker 1: and I don't understand how they're a favorite. Art?
- 12:26Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, listen, I told you yesterday one of
- 12:28Speaker 2: my unders was Clippers' 28.5 wins. I mean, the Kings
- 12:32Speaker 2: are even worse. They're like 20.5 wins as well.
- 12:36Speaker 1: I'm with you.
- 12:36Speaker 2: Listen, this probably should be a pick or minus one.
- 12:39Speaker 2: The fact that they're laying that type of number shows
- 12:41Speaker 2: you how bad Sacramento is. But I can't disagree, Bruce.
- 12:45Speaker 1: All right, give us a couple of college football side
- 12:48Speaker 1: bets for the week, and then we'll go to NFL. Sure.
- 12:52Speaker 2: Absolutely, I'm going to rattle them off. I always try
- 12:53Speaker 2: to do this midweek, get the college football sharp report
- 12:56Speaker 2: out to you guys. Rice plus 9.5, Syracuse plus 10,
- 13:01Speaker 2: Ball State minus 10.5, South Carolina pick them, Baylor minus 1,
- 13:06Speaker 2: Iowa State plus 11.5, Colorado State plus 2.5.
- 13:11Speaker 1: Guys, tomorrow we'll be doing our contest show. We'll be
- 13:14Speaker 1: working out the NFL bets for the circus, so stay
- 13:17Speaker 1: with us. Art, I'm going to tell you from an
- 13:19Speaker 1: NFL Week 7 side, I don't understand how the New
- 13:23Speaker 1: York Jets are favored, period, let alone by more than
- 13:26Speaker 1: a touchdown. I understand Miami is bad, but I just
- 13:30Speaker 1: don't get that line. I'm utterly disappointed. utterly confused by
- 13:35Speaker 1: the New York Giants line. That's one of the most bad.
- 13:38Speaker 1: This is a pesky New York. This New York Giants
- 13:41Speaker 1: team was down two touchdowns two weeks ago, got the
- 13:43Speaker 1: game into overtime. They were down by, I think, 427
- 13:47Speaker 1: points last week. I turned the game off, Art. I
- 13:52Speaker 1: came back and JJ was about to tie the game.
- 13:57Speaker 1: There's way too many points for the New York Giants.
- 14:02Speaker 1: I don't understand the Baltimore line. Is Lamar playing? I
- 14:07Speaker 1: assume based on the line he is, but I think
- 14:10Speaker 1: he's not going to play, dude. That line baffles me.
- 14:14Speaker 1: I don't understand. So those lines jump out at me
- 14:17Speaker 1: as what the hell, bro. So New York Jets, New
- 14:20Speaker 1: York Giants, Baltimore. Anything about those lines? What do you got?
- 14:27Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I wrote three down because I knew obviously
- 14:29Speaker 2: we do this segment on Wednesday. And my top one
- 14:32Speaker 2: was the Dolphins. I think the Dolphins getting five points
- 14:36Speaker 2: is insane. The Jets should be minus three. I think
- 14:38Speaker 2: you're getting a point and a half or two points
- 14:40Speaker 2: worth of value here. I mean, who are the Jets
- 14:42Speaker 2: to be laying that type of number? And Miami's coming
- 14:44Speaker 2: off a bye. I know they're a bad team, but
- 14:46Speaker 2: maybe a little bit of health and they're going to
- 14:48Speaker 2: roll in and play a division team and probably be
- 14:51Speaker 2: kind of spunky in the game. I also wrote down
- 14:54Speaker 2: Green Bay because I think three and a half in
- 14:56Speaker 2: that game and it's kind of split. But if you
- 14:59Speaker 2: can get three and a half in the game, the
- 15:00Speaker 2: way they've been playing, can't trust Detroit's defense. So I
- 15:03Speaker 2: would take three in the hook in a division game.
- 15:06Speaker 2: And here's another one. I think the line just got
- 15:07Speaker 2: a little out of whack. It's the one I like
- 15:09Speaker 2: the least. But now the Vikings are approaching almost seven
- 15:12Speaker 2: in that game against the Colts.
- 15:14Speaker 1: It's a horrible line, too. Yeah.
- 15:17Speaker 2: It's a lot of points. And listen, I get it.
- 15:19Speaker 2: Minnesota's undefeated. The Colts have been bad. But that's a
- 15:22Speaker 2: line that should probably be more like four. And now
- 15:25Speaker 2: it's six and a half. I would take the Colts
- 15:28Speaker 2: in that spot.
- 15:29Speaker 1: So I'm with you. And that was the one I
- 15:31Speaker 1: forgot to mention because, you know, the Houston and the
- 15:34Speaker 1: mini game, they're similar in the sense that. Yeah. Both
- 15:39Speaker 1: the Giants and the Colts can score. Both the Giants
- 15:42Speaker 1: and the Colts will score. And both Houston and Minnesota
- 15:48Speaker 1: don't consistently score. And neither team creates a whole lot
- 15:53Speaker 1: of space. I feel exactly the same way about the
- 15:56Speaker 1: New York Jets. I mean, for the New York Jets
- 15:58Speaker 1: to cover four and a half, they need to score
- 16:01Speaker 1: five points. So... I feel like all three of those
- 16:06Speaker 1: games have a similar kind of a handicap. Art, MLB
- 16:10Speaker 1: is on Friday. We don't need to discuss that today. NBA,
- 16:15Speaker 1: big slate. I gave out the Kings already. NHL rundown,
- 16:19Speaker 1: there are only two games today. Look, the Buffalo-Philadelphia game,
- 16:23Speaker 1: I lean on the over in this game, Art. Now,
- 16:26Speaker 1: I understand Philadelphia is not an over team right now.
- 16:29Speaker 1: But man, this team is going to break through. You
- 16:32Speaker 1: can get a five and a half out there in
- 16:34Speaker 1: some places. Fan duel is a five and a half.
- 16:36Speaker 1: I like the over in that game. And I like
- 16:39Speaker 1: the under in the Ottawa game. And I would not
- 16:42Speaker 1: be against playing Ottawa. This team is going to come
- 16:45Speaker 1: to play tonight, Art. This team, this is a huge
- 16:49Speaker 1: game for Ottawa tonight.
- 16:51Speaker 2: Yeah, I think if I look at any side or
- 16:53Speaker 2: total in the small two-game slate in the NHL, and
- 16:55Speaker 2: I didn't play anything or even put up a free pick,
- 16:57Speaker 2: but I'm with you, Prez. I think my favorite thing
- 17:00Speaker 2: and the thing that I would bet would be Ottawa
- 17:03Speaker 2: to win the game.
- 17:04Speaker 1: There you go. That's it for the show, everybody. Thank
- 17:07Speaker 1: you for watching the best betting show ever. Let us
- 17:09Speaker 1: know your thoughts. This was like a 20-minute version. No, Joe,
- 17:13Speaker 1: is that what you want, people? I love Joe. But
- 17:17Speaker 1: tell us your thoughts. With all that said, he's doing fantastic.
- 17:20Speaker 1: all the heavy lifting in the background. So be nice.
- 17:23Speaker 1: Art DeCesar, me, Ralph. Thanks for watching, everyone. We'll see
- 17:27Speaker 1: you tomorrow on the best betting show ever.