Latest / Decision Desk HQ Podcast / Episode 21: Kevin Kiley, Dan Osborn & Fake Independents, with Eric Cunningham of DDHQ

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Episode 21: Kevin Kiley, Dan Osborn & Fake Independents, with Eric Cunningham of DDHQ · Decision Desk HQ Podcast

0:12
SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the Decision Desk HQ podcast.
0:15
I'm Geoffrey Skelley,
0:16
your host,
0:17
the Chief Elections Analyst here at DDHQ.
0:20
SPEAKER_01: Last week,
0:21
California representative Kevin Kiley announced that he would
0:24
seek reelection as an
0:25
SPEAKER_01: independent.
0:26
SPEAKER_01: Kiley,
0:27
SPEAKER_01: a two term Republican congressman,
0:29
SPEAKER_01: had been targeted by California Democrats in their redistricting plan,
0:32
SPEAKER_01: which chopped up his red leaning third district into six pieces.
0:36
SPEAKER_01: So he decided to run in the new sixth district,
0:39
SPEAKER_01: which is roughly around Sacramento,
0:41
a seat that Kamala Harris would have carried by more than eight
0:43
percentage points
0:44
SPEAKER_01: in 2024.
0:45
Then he announced he would run as an independent and even
0:49
changed his formal party
0:50
SPEAKER_01: affiliation in the U.S.
0:51
SPEAKER_01: House of Representatives.
0:53
Despite this move,
0:54
is Kiley really an IINO,
0:56
if you will,
0:57
an independent name only?
0:59
SPEAKER_01: He will continue to caucus with the GOP,
1:01
and his decision to identify as an independent is clearly
1:05
related to his tough
1:06
SPEAKER_01: electoral circumstances running in a blue-leaning district.
1:09
SPEAKER_01: The thing is,
1:10
SPEAKER_01: Kiley is just the latest independent running,
1:13
SPEAKER_01: effectively as a stand-in for one of the major parties.
1:16
SPEAKER_01: In 2024,
1:17
SPEAKER_01: most notably,
1:18
Dan Osborn ran as an independent in a fairly close Senate race
1:21
in Nebraska against
1:23
SPEAKER_01: Republican Senator Deb Fischer with no Democrat on the ballot.
1:27
SPEAKER_01: He's back here in 2026,
1:29
SPEAKER_01: challenging Republican Senator Pete Ricketts,
1:31
SPEAKER_01: again,
1:32
SPEAKER_01: aiming to be more or less a Democratic stand-in.
1:35
SPEAKER_01: Democrats,
1:36
in fact,
1:36
SPEAKER_01: have been the more high-profile purveyors of this strategy,
1:41
SPEAKER_01: especially in Senate races.
1:43
This year,
1:43
SPEAKER_01: notable independents are running for Senate in red states like Nebraska,
1:47
SPEAKER_01: Montana,
1:48
South Dakota,
1:48
SPEAKER_01: and Idaho,
1:50
SPEAKER_01: where a Democrat would have little chance of winning,
1:52
SPEAKER_01: but where an independent might have a slightly better shot.
1:55
SPEAKER_01: In the recent past,
1:56
SPEAKER_01: similar candidates have sought Senate seats in Utah,
1:58
SPEAKER_01: Alaska,
1:59
SPEAKER_01: Kansas,
2:00
SPEAKER_01: and more broadly,
2:01
SPEAKER_01: both independents who are currently in the Senate,
2:04
SPEAKER_01: both caucus with the Democrats,
2:05
SPEAKER_01: Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Maine Senator Angus King.
2:09
So joining me to discuss this phenomenon of fake or pseudo
2:14
independents is Eric
2:15
SPEAKER_01: Cunningham,
2:16
SPEAKER_01: an election analyst here at Decision Desk HQ.
2:19
SPEAKER_01: Eric is also the editor in chief of Elections Daily,
2:22
and he has dug into this trend of pseudo independents running
2:25
in down ballot races.
2:26
SPEAKER_01: So, Eric, welcome to the Decision Desk HQ podcast.
2:29
SPEAKER_01: Thanks for having me, Geoffrey.
2:31
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so welcome.
2:33
SPEAKER_01: Glad to have you on.
2:35
We've been working together for a bit,
2:36
so happy to have you talk about this phenomenon.
2:41
SPEAKER_01: The moment Kevin Kiley announced his decision to run as an independent,
2:44
SPEAKER_01: we've been talking a lot about this idea.
2:47
I mean,
2:47
SPEAKER_01: we were talking about it beforehand,
2:49
SPEAKER_01: what with Osborn's candidacy and other such situations.
2:53
SPEAKER_01: But let's start out by just talking about Kiley.
2:56
know he's he's unusual he's a house member who is running for
2:59
re-election even
3:00
though he's wishing to be an independent some of that though is
3:02
probably down to
3:03
the fact that California uses a top-two primary system uh and
3:07
so I don't know if
3:09
you have any sort of top line thoughts on on Kiley's decision
3:13
that you thought
3:14
SPEAKER_01: would were sort of worth sharing
3:17
Yeah,
3:17
it's definitely an interesting decision and it's a lot easier
3:19
for him to do this in
3:20
SPEAKER_00: a state like California where you have a top-two system.
3:23
This is something that Republicans have actually tried at least
3:25
once in California before.
3:28
SPEAKER_00: On a statewide level,
3:29
they they've got behind a insurance commissioner candidate that
3:32
was a independent
3:33
SPEAKER_00: and he did quite well.
3:34
SPEAKER_00: He only lost by about five points in that cycle.
3:36
So I guess the thought process here is that,
3:38
you know,
3:39
you get rid of that Republican label
3:41
SPEAKER_00: that a Democrat-less eighth seat in California isn't actually that blue.
3:45
SPEAKER_00: It's blue,
3:46
but Republicans have held seats in California that are more
3:49
Democratic than that
3:50
SPEAKER_00: before.
3:51
SPEAKER_00: And they've been competitive in seats about that level.
3:52
SPEAKER_00: So the thought process here is clearly,
3:54
SPEAKER_00: you know,
3:55
SPEAKER_00: take a seat on the face of it would be reasonably competitive.
3:59
get rid of the party label and hope that's enough to convince a
4:02
bunch of new voters
4:03
SPEAKER_00: that are unfamiliar with you to vote for your candidacy.
4:06
SPEAKER_00: There are other states that have top two.
4:09
SPEAKER_00: Washington's one of them, for example, where they have that.
4:11
SPEAKER_00: And Republicans have also done that before there.
4:13
Dino Rossi ran for governor once with an unusual party label to
4:18
try to get past the
4:19
SPEAKER_00: stigma for Republican candidates.
4:20
So it's definitely,
4:21
it's new,
4:22
but it's also something that's been a possibility for a while.
4:26
SPEAKER_01: So I think looking at the electoral situation for Kiley,
4:29
only one minor Republican is running in that top-two primary in
4:33
the new sixth
4:34
SPEAKER_01: district.
4:36
SPEAKER_01: So I wanted to just sort of lay out for people.
4:38
SPEAKER_01: So he was in the old third district, which was a seat that
4:43
SPEAKER_01: that Donald Trump carried by about four percentage points in 2024.
4:48
So a light red district sort of running along the Eastern
4:52
border of North Carolina,
4:53
or sorry,
4:53
SPEAKER_01: of California, from Northern California,
4:56
SPEAKER_01: NorCal,
4:57
SPEAKER_01: down all the way to actually around Death Valley.
5:00
SPEAKER_01: However,
5:01
the new district is is he basically was going to choose between
5:05
either the new
5:06
SPEAKER_01: third,
5:07
SPEAKER_01: the new sixth or the new fifth districts.
5:11
SPEAKER_01: And in the end, he chose the new sixth.
5:13
But but I think taking him through his electoral prospects kind
5:16
of helps people
5:17
SPEAKER_01: understand maybe sort of the electoral motivations behind his move.
5:21
Uh,
5:21
SPEAKER_01: if under the new lines,
5:23
SPEAKER_01: his district got chopped up into a bunch of different parts,
5:25
but the new fifth district is this like dark red district where
5:28
Tom McClintock,
5:29
SPEAKER_01: a fellow Republican is,
5:31
SPEAKER_01: is running.
5:32
SPEAKER_01: And so there were,
5:33
SPEAKER_01: by the end of sort of,
5:34
he,
5:34
SPEAKER_01: he,
5:35
SPEAKER_01: Kiley went through sort of a Bachelor-esque process where he,
5:38
he said,
5:38
well,
5:38
SPEAKER_01: I'm not going to run in this district.
5:40
SPEAKER_01: Well, I'm not going to run in this district.
5:41
SPEAKER_01: And so he was down to the, either the new sixth,
5:44
SPEAKER_01: or the new fifth.
5:45
SPEAKER_01: Ami Bera,
5:46
SPEAKER_01: who's a Democratic incumbent,
5:47
SPEAKER_01: is running in the new third district here,
5:50
SPEAKER_01: which is a little bit bluer.
5:52
SPEAKER_01: And so basically,
5:53
was Kiley going to run in the new fifth against a fellow
5:56
Republican who was much
5:57
SPEAKER_01: more entrenched and represents more of that seat currently?
6:01
SPEAKER_01: Or would he run in the new sixth district?
6:04
And so in the end,
6:05
he decided to run the new sixth rather than challenge
6:06
McClintock.
6:07
SPEAKER_01: Maybe he would have pulled this independent move in the new fifth,
6:10
SPEAKER_01: although that would have meant
6:11
SPEAKER_01: maybe running almost as a,
6:13
SPEAKER_01: as a semi-Democratic standard,
6:15
SPEAKER_01: which might've been difficult,
6:16
SPEAKER_01: but in the new sixth district,
6:17
SPEAKER_01: which is,
6:18
SPEAKER_01: which has his hometown and,
6:19
SPEAKER_01: or his,
6:20
SPEAKER_01: or his current hometown and is again,
6:23
SPEAKER_01: a Harris plus eight seat.
6:25
It's,
6:25
it's around Sacramento,
6:27
you know,
6:28
maybe,
6:29
maybe he could pull off a win there.
6:31
SPEAKER_01: He's still viewed as an underdog by sort of ratings outlets.
6:36
SPEAKER_01: But nonetheless,
6:37
it,
6:37
SPEAKER_01: to your point,
6:38
I think it's,
6:38
SPEAKER_01: if you sort of take it through,
6:39
SPEAKER_01: you can see why he made this choice.
6:41
SPEAKER_01: For sure.
6:42
SPEAKER_00: And I think this is the best pick for him.
6:44
The fifth district,
6:44
SPEAKER_00: not only is it much redder,
6:46
SPEAKER_00: it contained virtually none of his current district.
6:48
SPEAKER_00: If you look at those counties down there,
6:49
SPEAKER_00: you've got three,
6:51
SPEAKER_00: those really long counties along the Nevada border.
6:54
You have,
6:54
I think,
6:55
you have like the one,
6:56
yeah,
6:56
you have Alpine,
6:58
Mono,
6:58
and Inyo.
6:59
Those have a collective population of maybe 50,000,
7:03
and I'm probably overestimating it.
7:05
And also most of them are either very democratic or,
7:08
in the case of Inyo,
7:09
a little competitive.
7:11
SPEAKER_00: So there's basically no common ground in terms of population.
7:13
SPEAKER_00: I think he made the right choice.
7:15
SPEAKER_00: And then that new district,
7:16
SPEAKER_00: Ami Bera has actually historically been kind of a weaker incumbent,
7:19
SPEAKER_00: but he's been in really favorably drawn Sacramento districts.
7:24
SPEAKER_00: This time he had a really nice one where they did like a north-south
7:27
SPEAKER_00: draw of Sacramento, which helped him out a little bit.
7:30
SPEAKER_00: But this has Nevada County,
7:31
SPEAKER_00: which has really turned into a Democratic stronghold,
7:35
SPEAKER_00: and a bunch of the ski country areas.
7:37
SPEAKER_00: I think of all of these, the eighth is probably the best choice for him.
7:41
SPEAKER_00: And there really was no other option.
7:43
SPEAKER_00: Just if you if you look at the actual split of where the population is,
7:47
SPEAKER_00: that's a really tiny district,
7:48
SPEAKER_00: but a lot of people live there.
7:49
Because you have a big chunk of Sacramento,
7:52
you got a bunch of the suburbs.
7:55
SPEAKER_00: Realistically,
7:56
SPEAKER_00: I think this is probably the best hope,
7:58
SPEAKER_00: not just for him,
7:59
SPEAKER_00: but for the [National] Republican Congressional Committee.
8:02
SPEAKER_00: It keeps an incumbent versus incumbent unnecessarily,
8:04
and it does provide at least an option in what should be the
8:09
best Republican hold,
8:10
I want to say,
8:10
SPEAKER_00: in Northern California.
8:12
SPEAKER_00: This is the only one they could theoretically even hold to begin with.
8:16
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you're absolutely right.
8:18
I think about that.
8:18
SPEAKER_01: They redrew the first district,
8:21
SPEAKER_01: made it much more democratic than Doug LaMalfa,
8:24
SPEAKER_01: tragically passed away.
8:25
And so actually that seat,
8:26
the old version of that seat that is the current Congress is
8:30
vacant.
8:31
SPEAKER_01: So yeah,
8:32
in terms of kind of understanding who is most endangered or who
8:36
has the best chance
8:37
SPEAKER_01: of overcoming
8:38
SPEAKER_01: the gerrymander that Democrats drew it,
8:41
it is Kiley,
8:41
SPEAKER_01: but he still is,
8:42
SPEAKER_01: I think,
8:43
you know,
8:43
SPEAKER_01: he still has an uphill battle.
8:44
SPEAKER_01: It's unclear who he will face.
8:46
Um,
8:47
but he will probably advance because there's only one minor
8:48
Republican.
8:49
SPEAKER_01: So he'll probably advance to the general face one Democrat.
8:51
SPEAKER_01: There are, I think four notable Democrats running.
8:54
SPEAKER_01: Um, and so maybe he has a shot.
8:55
SPEAKER_01: So Kiley is, is interesting in this case.
8:58
SPEAKER_01: He's still caucusing with Republicans.
8:59
SPEAKER_01: Um,
9:01
SPEAKER_01: at least for now.
9:03
But effectively,
9:04
if he makes it to the general,
9:05
will be sort of the Republican standing.
9:07
SPEAKER_01: On the other side of the aisle,
9:09
SPEAKER_01: if you're looking at Nebraska,
9:12
SPEAKER_01: you've got Nebraska and a few other cases.
9:14
We're going to talk about Dan Osborn in Nebraska to start,
9:17
but he's not alone,
9:17
actually.
9:18
SPEAKER_01: There are four,
9:20
SPEAKER_01: and I just brought up a table for people watching at home,
9:24
SPEAKER_01: four states where there are...
9:26
There are independent candidates who are trying to run as
9:29
effectively a Democrat or
9:31
SPEAKER_01: independent plus Democratic coalition candidate,
9:34
SPEAKER_01: if you will,
9:35
SPEAKER_01: in an attempt to beat a Republican in a solidly red state.
9:38
So,
9:38
SPEAKER_01: you know,
9:39
SPEAKER_01: starting with Dan Osborn in Nebraska,
9:41
SPEAKER_01: we've got he ran in 2024 and came closer,
9:45
SPEAKER_01: we should say,
9:47
SPEAKER_01: than Kamala Harris did to winning Nebraska.
9:49
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, substantially closer.
9:51
Yeah,
9:52
and so actually I have our new Decision Desk HQ Votes election
9:58
portal.
9:59
SPEAKER_01: I'll sort of showcase this.
10:01
SPEAKER_01: So in the presidential race,
10:03
SPEAKER_01: Donald Trump won Nebraska by a little over 20 percentage points,
10:08
SPEAKER_01: was winning close to 60% of the vote.
10:11
SPEAKER_01: The only places that Harris was carrying were,
10:13
SPEAKER_01: were,
10:14
SPEAKER_01: were Omaha, or Douglas County,
10:16
SPEAKER_01: and then Lancaster County,
10:18
SPEAKER_01: which is where Lincoln, university town is, the state capital.
10:22
SPEAKER_01: But Osborn, meanwhile, uh,
10:26
SPEAKER_01: came somewhat closer.
10:27
He only lost,
10:27
SPEAKER_01: he lost by a little,
10:28
SPEAKER_01: a little fewer than seven percentage points against Deb Fischer.
10:32
SPEAKER_01: And, you know, that was kind of a surprise.
10:33
SPEAKER_01: It turned into a competitive race.
10:35
SPEAKER_01: There was a lot of attention given to it.
10:36
SPEAKER_01: There was a lot of money spent there.
10:39
SPEAKER_01: So I think Osborn is now hoping for,
10:41
SPEAKER_01: for lightning to basically strike twice and maybe in a,
10:44
SPEAKER_01: in a more Democratic leaning midterm environment to give Pete Ricketts a,
10:48
SPEAKER_01: a run for his money.
10:50
But I think it's unclear actually,
10:53
if that'll,
10:53
if it'll be quite so seamless this time.
10:57
On paper Ricketts is definitely a stronger candidate and he has
10:59
a better capacity to self-fund.
11:01
That's kind of the big thing that Osborn was able to do last
11:04
time is he forced
11:05
Republicans to spend in Nebraska and then they ended up losing
11:08
several Senate
11:09
SPEAKER_00: elections by really close margins,
11:10
SPEAKER_00: Michigan in particular.
11:12
is one they could have spent a little bit more on,
11:15
given how close that election was.
11:17
It's not impossible to think that if they didn't have to worry
11:19
about Nebraska,
11:20
SPEAKER_00: they could have put in more resources somewhere else.
11:23
SPEAKER_00: Now you've got four of these guys running.
11:25
SPEAKER_00: Obviously, 7% is good.
11:26
SPEAKER_00: It's still not a win, but it's a lot better than 20.
11:29
SPEAKER_00: And definitely Republicans were worried for a reason.
11:33
SPEAKER_00: It's a race I was skeptical about, and he did prove me wrong.
11:37
Yeah.
11:37
And so what's I think the main challenge for and we'll talk
11:40
about this in some of
11:41
SPEAKER_01: the other cases,
11:42
too,
11:42
SPEAKER_01: and some of these other states.
11:43
But I think one of the main challenges for Osborn is making
11:46
sure he has sort of a
11:47
SPEAKER_01: one on one shot with Ricketts,
11:48
SPEAKER_01: that if there's going to be sort of an anti Ricketts coalition,
11:51
SPEAKER_01: which is mostly Democrats,
11:53
SPEAKER_01: but then maybe a few moderate Republicans in,
11:56
you know,
11:56
maybe in the Omaha area in the suburbs or something that you
11:59
can pull in with an
12:00
SPEAKER_01: independent,
12:02
you
12:02
you know,
12:02
an independent profile,
12:04
or at least are attempting to pull in with that.
12:08
It helps to not have a Democrat also on the ballot splitting
12:11
votes and winning over
12:12
SPEAKER_01: some Democrats.
12:13
SPEAKER_01: And last time in 2024, Osborn had that.
12:16
SPEAKER_01: This time around, it's a little unclear what's going to happen.
12:18
SPEAKER_01: Basically,
12:19
my understanding of the situation is that there are two minor
12:20
Democrats who have
12:21
SPEAKER_01: filed.
12:22
One who has essentially said,
12:24
if I win,
12:24
I will drop out and support Osborn.
12:27
SPEAKER_01: The state party has endorsed Osborn's.
12:29
SPEAKER_01: bid again.
12:30
So Nebraska Democrats would prefer there not be a Democrat,
12:33
you know,
12:34
a Democrat on the ballot.
12:36
But then there's another candidate who is running as a Democrat
12:39
who the Nebraska
12:40
SPEAKER_01: Democrats are basically saying is an anti Osborn plant.
12:44
So it will be interesting to see who actually wins the primary
12:46
there and and
12:47
whether or not that sort of clears the lane for another head to
12:51
head battle for
12:52
SPEAKER_01: Osborn.
12:54
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, the one-on-one thing is kind of essential here.
12:56
SPEAKER_00: Whenever this has been tried and it's proven to be reasonably successful,
13:00
SPEAKER_00: it's been when it's a one-on-one contest.
13:03
SPEAKER_00: There have been times where it's been attempted.
13:05
South Dakota in 2014,
13:06
there is an independent candidate,
13:08
I think his name is Larry Pressler,
13:10
SPEAKER_00: that he was running, but there was also a Democrat on the ballot.
13:13
SPEAKER_00: Those two collectively did force the Republican vote down to about,
13:16
SPEAKER_00: I think,
13:17
SPEAKER_00: 53,
13:18
54%,
13:18
SPEAKER_00: but they collectively split the vote together,
13:20
SPEAKER_00: and it ended up not even being a close race at all.
13:23
SPEAKER_00: Compared that to something like Utah,
13:24
SPEAKER_00: where Evan McMullin,
13:25
SPEAKER_00: who was a credible candidate,
13:27
SPEAKER_00: who had a track record of success from the 2016 presidential election,
13:31
SPEAKER_00: where he finished third,
13:33
SPEAKER_00: in Utah,
13:34
finished close to Hillary Clinton's vote share there and got a
13:36
lot of disaffection
13:37
SPEAKER_00: Republican voters,
13:39
SPEAKER_00: he was able to make that a close race.
13:43
SPEAKER_00: Dan Osborn was able to make this close last time.
13:46
SPEAKER_00: So it's really important for parties to consolidate and say,
13:50
SPEAKER_00: we're dropping out,
13:51
SPEAKER_00: we're not running against this guy.
13:54
The challenge with that,
13:54
SPEAKER_00: though,
13:55
SPEAKER_00: the other direction is that then Republicans can come in and say they're
13:59
SPEAKER_00: effectively the Democrat.
14:00
SPEAKER_00: And for a lot of these candidates,
14:02
it's going to be a lot harder for them to do the Dan Osborn
14:04
sale because many of
14:06
SPEAKER_00: them have actually run as Democrats before.
14:09
SPEAKER_00: This proved to be an issue for Greg Orman in 2014 in Kansas,
14:12
SPEAKER_00: where he had thought about running for them as a Democrat once,
14:14
SPEAKER_00: and that was used against him.
14:15
But you have guys who literally had run as the Democratic
14:17
candidate or had been
14:19
SPEAKER_00: previously Democratic state representatives or legislators.
14:23
SPEAKER_00: That's going to be a big issue for them to deal with.
14:28
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely.
14:30
SPEAKER_01: And what's...
14:32
SPEAKER_01: Well, you mentioned Larry Pressler.
14:34
He was actually a former Republican senator who was trying to
14:36
make a comeback years
14:38
SPEAKER_01: later running as an independent.
14:39
SPEAKER_01: But to your point,
14:41
there was a there was a Democrat on the ballot and they both
14:43
they combined for 40
14:44
SPEAKER_01: something percent wouldn't have won anyway against Mike Rounds.
14:48
SPEAKER_01: And we're actually going to if you know,
14:50
SPEAKER_01: let's actually go ahead and transition to that Mike Rounds race.
14:53
SPEAKER_01: That seems appropriate.
14:55
uh in South Dakota rounds is running for re-election there is a
14:58
little bit of
14:59
chatter although I think she's running out of time Kristi Noem
15:01
could could try to
15:02
go back and run for Senate I think she's running out of time to
15:05
actually do that um
15:06
but there has been a little chatter about it but assuming
15:08
rounds is the republican
15:09
SPEAKER_01: nominee again um he might face Brian Bengs who is a, who's running as an
15:15
SPEAKER_01: independent.
15:16
SPEAKER_01: The thing is, Bengs ran as a
15:19
the Democratic nominee in the 2022 South Dakota race and got
15:22
absolutely clobbered
15:23
SPEAKER_01: by John Thune.
15:24
I don't think it's disrespectful to get clobbered by John Thune
15:27
in South Dakota.
15:29
SPEAKER_01: But if you've already run as the Democrat there,
15:33
making the case that you're an independent this time might be a
15:34
little bit more
15:35
SPEAKER_01: difficult.
15:37
SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
15:38
part of the sell Osborn did and was able to be convincing on is
15:40
that he was able
15:41
SPEAKER_00: to take a lot of heterodox positions for Democrats.
15:44
SPEAKER_00: For example, he was running on immigration enforcement.
15:47
SPEAKER_00: He made that a big deal of this campaign.
15:49
That's probably the single most major policy shift he made,
15:52
but it was enough
15:53
clearly to draw a little bit of distinction between himself and
15:55
the party.
15:56
I took a quick look at Bengs's website before this,
16:00
and he is making overtures.
16:02
SPEAKER_00: His platform is definitely trying to be Osborn, right?
16:05
SPEAKER_00: Like sort of populist, like working class policy.
16:10
One of the things he's going on is Trump's idea of banning
16:13
corporate ownership of rental homes.
16:16
That's mentioned,
16:16
SPEAKER_00: and there's stuff about like a Second Amendment supporting,
16:19
you know,
16:19
SPEAKER_00: gun rights,
16:21
SPEAKER_00: but also supporting abortion,
16:22
SPEAKER_00: which is something that Dan Osborn did as well,
16:24
SPEAKER_00: and given abortions,
16:25
SPEAKER_00: you know,
16:26
SPEAKER_00: reasonably not as much of a 50-50 issue anymore.
16:30
SPEAKER_00: And in a lot of these areas,
16:31
clearly,
16:31
SPEAKER_00: if you look at some of the referendums in places like Kansas,
16:35
SPEAKER_00: that we had as recently as a few years ago.
16:36
SPEAKER_00: They're definitely trying to craft a lane for that sort of candidacy,
16:41
SPEAKER_00: but I'll be more interested in somewhere like South Dakota,
16:44
SPEAKER_00: because unlike Nebraska,
16:46
SPEAKER_00: there is not a big urban center in South Dakota.
16:49
SPEAKER_00: The closest thing you have is, I believe it's what, Fargo?
16:52
SPEAKER_00: No, Fargo's North Dakota.
16:53
SPEAKER_00: It'd be… Sioux Falls.
16:55
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it'd be Sioux Falls, yeah.
16:58
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
17:00
SPEAKER_00: Nebraska genuinely has several big cities, Omaha and Lincoln.
17:05
SPEAKER_00: South Dakota does not.
17:07
SPEAKER_00: Fundamentally, those areas are where Osborn overperformed.
17:11
SPEAKER_00: He did better than you'd expect in the rurals,
17:13
but his margins were really good in those areas that were more
17:16
urban or suburban.
17:18
That's going to be more of a challenge for someone like Bengs
17:20
in a less urban,
17:21
more rural state.
17:24
SPEAKER_01: No, absolutely.
17:25
And,
17:25
SPEAKER_01: and in my understanding,
17:27
at least at the moment in the South Dakota situation is also
17:30
that Bengs might not
17:31
get,
17:31
SPEAKER_01: might not get a free shot at,
17:33
SPEAKER_01: at rounds.
17:34
SPEAKER_01: The Democrats there,
17:36
SPEAKER_01: the Democratic state party has said,
17:38
SPEAKER_01: well,
17:39
we don't really want to get behind a guy who was our nominee in
17:42
2022 and is now bad
17:43
SPEAKER_01: mouthing the party.
17:45
So they,
17:45
SPEAKER_01: there might be a Democrat,
17:46
you know,
17:46
SPEAKER_01: an actual Democrat on the ballot who I think is a state legislator.
17:50
SPEAKER_01: And if that, you know, comes to pass, then, you know,
17:53
SPEAKER_01: rounds.
17:54
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
17:55
SPEAKER_01: It's not even not, not remotely interesting.
17:58
So actually I think the next most interesting and perhaps the
18:01
one where Democrats
18:02
SPEAKER_01: are now thinking,
18:03
SPEAKER_01: or well,
18:04
SPEAKER_01: Democrats and anti-Republicans,
18:07
if they're,
18:07
if they,
18:07
SPEAKER_01: you know,
18:08
SPEAKER_01: if the independents are sort of getting their way here,
18:10
SPEAKER_01: uh,
18:11
they,
18:11
that,
18:11
that they're sort of their next best hope besides Nebraska
18:15
might be Montana where
18:17
Republican Steve Daines right at the filing deadline announced
18:19
that he would not seek
18:20
SPEAKER_01: reelection.
18:21
SPEAKER_01: And so you have,
18:23
SPEAKER_01: To go back to our table here,
18:26
SPEAKER_01: the Daines situation,
18:27
SPEAKER_01: it's actually,
18:28
SPEAKER_01: at least by the presidential vote,
18:29
SPEAKER_01: the least red.
18:30
SPEAKER_01: It's essentially similar to Nebraska,
18:31
but obviously you just had Jon Tester lose by a narrower margin
18:35
in the Senate race
18:36
there,
18:36
had held a Senate seat for three terms despite being a Democrat
18:39
in increasingly red
18:40
SPEAKER_01: Montana.
18:41
SPEAKER_01: So Seth Bodnar actually has Tester's support in that race,
18:46
SPEAKER_01: and he's the now-former president of the University of Montana,
18:49
SPEAKER_01: and he is running as an independent in Montana.
18:52
SPEAKER_01: And Tester's endorsed him.
18:55
There are a lot of Democrats talking about him as being the
18:57
best shot of winning
18:58
SPEAKER_01: that seat as an independent.
19:00
SPEAKER_01: Tester,
19:01
essentially,
19:01
SPEAKER_01: you know,
19:02
SPEAKER_01: who knew exactly how the leak worked,
19:04
but essentially there was a leak of some text messages or
19:08
something from Tester
19:09
badmouthing the Democratic Party that had been a huge burden on
19:12
his reelection bid
19:13
SPEAKER_01: in 2024 having that label.
19:15
SPEAKER_01: And so I think for him and other people supporting Bodnar,
19:18
SPEAKER_01: the hope is that an independent could could make a push there.
19:22
Yeah.
19:22
No,
19:23
this will be – if they're able to clear it about,
19:24
this could be relatively interesting.
19:26
SPEAKER_00: Even besides Jon Tester,
19:28
there was a close Senate election – relatively close Senate
19:30
election in 2020.
19:33
A former governor – I think it was the incumbent governor at
19:35
the time,
19:36
actually,
19:36
Steve Bullock.
19:37
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, he was outgoing.
19:38
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
19:39
SPEAKER_00: He was able to pull within 10 or 11 points in the presidential cycle,
19:42
SPEAKER_00: which is like a 6% to 7% overperformance.
19:45
SPEAKER_00: Again, I don't think Montana will be a flip target.
19:48
I think Nebraska is the most interesting because Osborn is a
19:50
proven property.
19:52
SPEAKER_00: But it is a matter of money.
19:53
SPEAKER_00: Republicans have to spend anything in Montana.
19:56
SPEAKER_00: That's money they can't spend protecting North Carolina or Maine.
19:59
It's money they can't spend trying to go on the offensive in
20:02
Michigan or Georgia,
20:04
SPEAKER_00: which are states they think are winnable and would like to flip back.
20:07
SPEAKER_00: Those are states that voted for Donald Trump in 2024.
20:12
SPEAKER_00: If they have to spend any money on any of these races,
20:14
SPEAKER_00: that's a factor they're going to have to raise money,
20:17
SPEAKER_00: and it's going to be distracting from other more important races on them.
20:21
SPEAKER_00: And when Democrats need to flip essentially,
20:23
what,
20:23
SPEAKER_00: four seats,
20:24
SPEAKER_00: five seats to win back the Senate,
20:28
SPEAKER_00: they kind of have to look at a board like this.
20:29
SPEAKER_00: The other option is sweeping basically all of the competitive states.
20:33
SPEAKER_00: which is something we don't actually ever see happen in midterm cycles.
20:38
SPEAKER_00: You can get close,
20:40
SPEAKER_00: but when your pathway is we need to win everything,
20:43
it's better to expand the board than to make that be an option
20:46
because you're not
20:47
SPEAKER_00: going to win everything,
20:48
SPEAKER_00: generally.
20:49
SPEAKER_00: We've not had that type of way of election in probably what
20:53
20 years,
20:53
SPEAKER_00: 30 years,
20:55
like,
20:55
SPEAKER_00: you have to go back to some of the really major,
20:57
SPEAKER_00: like,
20:58
SPEAKER_00: Watergate sweeps,
20:59
for example,
20:59
to find stuff where basically everything is going absolutely
21:03
the right way.
21:06
Yeah,
21:06
SPEAKER_01: and,
21:07
you know,
21:07
to your point,
21:07
SPEAKER_01: like,
21:08
SPEAKER_01: for thinking about the Democratic path to a majority,
21:11
SPEAKER_01: and,
21:12
you know,
21:12
SPEAKER_01: it helps when you hear this,
21:14
it helps you understand why Republicans still remain favored to
21:17
hold the Senate.
21:19
SPEAKER_01: It's flip Maine,
21:21
where Susan Collins has obviously has a pretty impressive
21:24
electoral track record in
21:25
SPEAKER_01: a blue-leaning state.
21:27
SPEAKER_01: And then flip North Carolina,
21:28
SPEAKER_01: which is an open seat,
21:30
but has had a slight red lean for a while and has been
21:34
difficult for Democrats to
21:35
SPEAKER_01: actually win statewide.
21:37
SPEAKER_01: I know you're in North Carolina, so you know all about that.
21:40
SPEAKER_00: We're excited for another two years of election ads for Senate races.
21:45
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
21:46
SPEAKER_01: Yes, maybe the first billion-dollar Senate race.
21:51
So those two are basically – the Democrats have to flip them
21:54
because they're
21:55
SPEAKER_01: Democratic leanings.
21:56
They are the most competitive or least red states on the board
22:01
that Democrats can compete in.
22:03
Also,
22:03
SPEAKER_01: they have to hold Michigan and Georgia,
22:04
SPEAKER_01: among other things,
22:06
SPEAKER_01: and New Hampshire,
22:07
SPEAKER_01: states that the Democrats currently hold but are more competitive.
22:11
And then Democrats have to find two more seats to get to a net
22:14
gain of four.
22:16
And so it's like,
22:16
SPEAKER_01: is that Texas,
22:17
SPEAKER_01: where we obviously just had the Democrats nominated James Talarico,
22:21
and Republicans have a runoff between Kim Paxton and the
22:23
incumbent John Cornyn.
22:25
SPEAKER_01: You've got...
22:29
SPEAKER_01: it serves the other three states,
22:30
Ohio,
22:30
SPEAKER_01: Iowa,
22:32
SPEAKER_01: Alaska,
22:33
SPEAKER_01: or the sort of the other three that get major mentions.
22:35
So to your point,
22:35
SPEAKER_01: it's sort of like,
22:36
SPEAKER_01: do we expand the map to include places like Nebraska and Montana?
22:39
And I will say just to finish up sort of thinking about the
22:42
Montana situation,
22:43
the other problem for Democrats there and the independent
22:45
candidacy of Seth Bodnar
22:47
SPEAKER_01: is that the leading democratic candidate,
22:50
SPEAKER_01: former state representative Reilly Neill has said,
22:52
SPEAKER_01: she's not getting out of the way for Bodnar.
22:54
SPEAKER_01: Now, you know,
22:55
SPEAKER_01: we'll see what happens by the time you get closer to the election.
22:58
SPEAKER_01: But nonetheless,
22:59
SPEAKER_01: that would then again,
23:00
that would not give Democrats or the sort of anti-Republican
23:04
coalition that
23:05
SPEAKER_01: head-to-head shot that they need.
23:07
SPEAKER_01: Like,
23:08
SPEAKER_00: and just to get a little bit even further before we move on,
23:11
SPEAKER_00: Maine voted for Kamala Harris by eight points.
23:13
SPEAKER_00: That's a pretty Democratic state.
23:17
SPEAKER_00: North Carolina voted for Donald Trump by three,
23:19
and it's only voted for a Democrat twice this century and voted
23:21
for Barack Obama in
23:23
SPEAKER_00: 2008 and voted for Kay Hagan for Senate in 2008.
23:26
SPEAKER_00: Every other federal race this century has gone for the Republicans,
23:29
SPEAKER_00: and most of them have been quite close,
23:31
SPEAKER_00: but it's been very much a Lucy and the football,
23:34
or yeah,
23:34
SPEAKER_00: Charlie Brown and the football situation.
23:36
SPEAKER_00: Then you're getting to like Alaska,
23:38
SPEAKER_00: Ohio,
23:39
Iowa,
23:39
Texas,
23:39
SPEAKER_00: all of which voted for Trump by more than 10 points.
23:42
Some of these are actually closer to Montana than they were,
23:45
you know,
23:46
the 10 point line.
23:47
SPEAKER_00: I think Texas was like, what, a 14 to 15 point win for Donald Trump.
23:53
If you look at the margins like that,
23:55
these aren't actually that much more out of reach.
23:58
SPEAKER_00: Montana on paper isn't that much more than Iowa, right?
24:01
SPEAKER_00: Like Iowa has had a Democratic Senator
24:04
SPEAKER_00: Not more recently than Montana.
24:06
SPEAKER_00: Montana has had one more recently than Iowa has.
24:09
SPEAKER_00: Ohio has had one more recently than Texas,
24:15
which has not voted for a Democrat at all in any statewide race
24:19
since the 90s.
24:22
I think Democrats are really genuinely in a situation where
24:24
they have to try to
24:25
SPEAKER_00: expand the board.
24:26
SPEAKER_00: Obviously, they have a pretty good cycle coming up in 2026.
24:29
SPEAKER_00: or 2028, sorry.
24:30
They have a good cycle coming up in 2028 where there's a lot
24:33
more of the seats,
24:34
SPEAKER_00: but this particular set of Senate seats is really,
24:38
SPEAKER_00: really difficult to make a breakthrough in.
24:42
SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
24:43
SPEAKER_01: And just to sort of finish up with this,
24:45
SPEAKER_01: the race that's more under the radar of this quartet is Idaho,
24:51
SPEAKER_01: where there's an independent running named Todd Achilles,
24:55
who was briefly appointed as a state legislator and won
24:58
re-election in 2024 there,
25:01
SPEAKER_01: and then resigned his seat in 2025,
25:03
became an unaffiliated voter and announced he was going to run
25:05
for Senate as an
25:06
SPEAKER_01: independent.
25:08
SPEAKER_01: He would face Jim Risch, who's the longtime Republican incumbent there.
25:13
the democrats in that state have been a bit have been haven't
25:16
exactly made clear
25:18
what they're what they're thinking in terms of Achilles'S
25:20
candidacy and whether or
25:21
not they would endorse it or would would discourage a democrat
25:24
from running or or
25:25
what have you but just to close out that's sort of the the full
25:29
quartet of these
25:30
red states where an independent is hoping to make a play and
25:35
might be functionally
25:36
SPEAKER_01: the democratic candidate in the general election um
25:40
To move on to some sort of recent past cases,
25:43
you mentioned Greg Orman in 2014 in Kansas.
25:46
He lost by,
25:46
SPEAKER_01: I think,
25:47
SPEAKER_01: six or seven to Republican Senator Pat Roberts,
25:50
SPEAKER_01: running as independent,
25:52
SPEAKER_01: but essentially the Democratic candidate because the Democratic candidate
25:56
SPEAKER_01: The nominee withdrew, actually, to sort of clear the lane for Orman.
26:01
SPEAKER_01: But another recent example that that is interesting is Evan McMullin,
26:06
SPEAKER_01: who ran for Senate in 2022 in Utah against Mike Lee.
26:11
SPEAKER_01: He lost by a little over 10 percentage points.
26:15
SPEAKER_01: I just brought that up on screen for people who are watching.
26:18
SPEAKER_01: And, you know, so he did better than a Democrat would.
26:22
SPEAKER_01: And he had essentially the Democrats in Utah.
26:25
At their convention could either decide to back McMullin's
26:29
candidacy or nominate
26:30
SPEAKER_01: someone of their own.
26:31
And they they voted to back McMullin instead of running their
26:34
own candidate.
26:35
SPEAKER_01: And so in the end, McMullin was functionally the Democratic nominee.
26:39
SPEAKER_01: And he got a bit closer.
26:40
Lee also is a particularly conservative Republican who has
26:43
attracted some primary
26:45
SPEAKER_01: opposition over the years.
26:47
SPEAKER_01: Even though he's, he's, he's won and it hasn't been terribly close.
26:50
There's,
26:50
SPEAKER_01: there has been like,
26:52
SPEAKER_01: there have been anti Lee pockets of the Utah GOP,
26:55
SPEAKER_01: which McMullin was able maybe to latch onto.
26:57
SPEAKER_01: So again, there's sort of,
26:59
there's sort of this broad story of independents running who
27:03
are functionally the
27:04
SPEAKER_01: democratic candidate.
27:05
However,
27:06
a lot of this is gonna matter based on like the state by state
27:10
situation.
27:11
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, the Utah one is a perfect example.
27:14
SPEAKER_00: Even though Utah is a majority white state,
27:16
in many ways it's voting patterns and trends are a lot closer
27:19
to what you would
27:20
SPEAKER_00: expect in a state that has like a large minority population,
27:22
right?
27:22
Because Mormons kind of function as their own,
27:25
specifically in Utah as their own specific
27:29
SPEAKER_00: And a lot of those Mormon voters were very,
27:32
very skeptical of Donald Trump when he was the Republican
27:34
nominee in 2016.
27:36
SPEAKER_00: To some degree that's gone away.
27:38
SPEAKER_00: Trump has run away with Utah the last couple of times,
27:40
but his support's been a little bit softer than you would
27:43
expect from a Republican
27:44
SPEAKER_00: nominee in Utah.
27:45
SPEAKER_00: And McMullin is basically the perfect guy to go for that.
27:47
SPEAKER_00: He ran as an independent conservative candidate in 2016,
27:51
SPEAKER_00: and he got about like almost as many votes as Hillary Clinton did.
27:55
And,
27:55
you know,
27:55
there was a time he was actually polling competitively to win
27:57
the state.
27:58
SPEAKER_00: There is a, some people who thought he had a chance to win Utah.
28:01
SPEAKER_00: And if it were close,
28:02
SPEAKER_00: that it could,
28:03
you know,
28:03
SPEAKER_00: super duper close that he could sway the Electoral College.
28:05
SPEAKER_00: That was the general idea.
28:08
SPEAKER_00: But when he came back in 2022,
28:10
SPEAKER_00: not only was he running against Mike Lee,
28:11
who was a lot more polarizing than he was in 2016 when he
28:14
actually outran Trump by
28:16
SPEAKER_00: a wide margin,
28:17
SPEAKER_00: he also was able to point to that he had a conservative track record.
28:21
SPEAKER_00: He had been an operative and stuff.
28:23
Now,
28:23
his campaign was a lot more liberal than you would expect of a
28:25
conservative
28:27
candidate,
28:27
but all of that stuff on paper is stuff that appealed
28:30
specifically to voters in
28:31
SPEAKER_00: Utah who might not like Donald Trump,
28:33
SPEAKER_00: but wanted a more polite type of politics.
28:35
SPEAKER_00: But that's another thing you would get out of these is like,
28:38
SPEAKER_00: Utah politicians,
28:39
John Curtis is a lot more bipartisan than you would expect of a
28:43
Republican senator
28:44
SPEAKER_00: from a state that,
28:45
you know,
28:45
SPEAKER_00: voted for Trump by 30 points.
28:47
SPEAKER_00: And he actually was a former Democrat.
28:50
SPEAKER_00: You'll find cases like this.
28:52
It's a lot harder to get a specific perfect storm like this in
28:56
Utah that you would
28:57
SPEAKER_00: get everywhere else,
28:58
SPEAKER_00: right?
28:59
SPEAKER_00: Like you go back to Kansas in 2014.
29:01
SPEAKER_00: That was another perfect storm candidacy.
29:03
SPEAKER_00: The Democrat dropped out midway through.
29:06
SPEAKER_00: Greg Orman was well-funded and he was really smart.
29:08
SPEAKER_00: He was running a really clever campaign.
29:11
SPEAKER_00: The incumbent Pat Roberts,
29:12
SPEAKER_00: a Republican,
29:13
had faced a Tea Party primary challenger and only had narrowly
29:16
beaten him.
29:17
SPEAKER_00: And he was also very unpopular because he,
29:19
one,
29:19
SPEAKER_00: was very old,
29:20
SPEAKER_00: and two,
29:21
SPEAKER_00: probably didn't live in Kansas by that point.
29:23
SPEAKER_00: He had some residency complaints,
29:24
SPEAKER_00: which are a factor that genuinely does matter in Senate elections.
29:28
It to some degree has sunk probably two or three senators in
29:31
the Midwest over the
29:32
SPEAKER_00: last decade or two.
29:34
SPEAKER_00: And even with all of that,
29:35
SPEAKER_00: he was still only within 11 points because Republicans were able to,
29:40
SPEAKER_00: by the end of it,
29:41
SPEAKER_00: tie him to Democrats.
29:43
SPEAKER_00: One thing that comes to mind is on Election Day,
29:46
Joe Biden,
29:46
SPEAKER_00: who was then the Vice President,
29:48
SPEAKER_00: had said that Greg Orman was going to caucus with him when Greg Orman had
29:52
SPEAKER_00: promised throughout the entire campaign he was not going to.
29:55
SPEAKER_00: Is that enough to make an 11 point margin?
29:57
No.
29:57
SPEAKER_00: But I think it would have been a little bit closer.
30:00
If he didn't have that sort of confirmation,
30:02
then it would have been a caucus.
30:03
SPEAKER_00: That's why you're saying,
30:04
SPEAKER_00: I think,
30:05
SPEAKER_00: Dan Osborn be very clear,
30:06
SPEAKER_00: like he is not going to caucus with anyone.
30:09
SPEAKER_00: He said that he specifically will caucus with no party,
30:12
SPEAKER_00: which if he doesn't caucus with anyone,
30:14
SPEAKER_00: that's still a win for Democrats.
30:16
SPEAKER_00: That's one less Republican.
30:18
SPEAKER_00: And the majority leader vote is who has the most seats.
30:21
SPEAKER_00: So if Democrats have 50,
30:22
SPEAKER_00: Republicans have 49,
30:24
SPEAKER_00: and then Dan Osborn is over there as one,
30:26
SPEAKER_00: it doesn't matter who he's with as long as he's not with the Republicans,
30:29
SPEAKER_00: which he's promised he wouldn't be.
30:31
SPEAKER_00: That's sort of the advanced math we're working with.
30:34
Yeah,
30:34
SPEAKER_01: and it's fascinating with Osborn because,
30:37
SPEAKER_01: you know,
30:38
SPEAKER_01: if he were to caucus with the Democrats,
30:41
you know,
30:41
SPEAKER_01: he's a one-term senator.
30:43
Yeah,
30:44
it'd be the biggest broken campaign promise probably in recent
30:46
political history.
30:49
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so that would be difficult to pull off.
30:51
I mean,
30:51
it's very hard not to caucus with the party because they make
30:55
your committee
30:57
SPEAKER_01: assignments and other things.
30:59
SPEAKER_01: So how exactly you go about doing that would be...
31:03
not uncharted territory,
31:04
but you know Bernie Sanders and Angus King very clearly
31:07
SPEAKER_01: caucus with the Democrats.
31:09
SPEAKER_01: They, you know, they get their committee assignments
31:12
SPEAKER_01: as part of the Democrats' process.
31:14
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
31:14
SPEAKER_01: So it's, you know, it'll be a
31:17
really interesting bridge yeah exactly yes exactly they have
31:21
given the leeway
31:22
It'd be a fascinating bridge to cross if if Osborn does somehow
31:26
pull off a victory.
31:28
I will mention just let's actually move on to some of these
31:32
down ballot cases.
31:34
Well,
31:34
let's talk about Angus King briefly and then maybe talk a
31:38
little bit about a couple
31:40
other things in terms of downballot cases of sort of this
31:43
pseudo independent or
31:45
SPEAKER_01: quasi independent or however you want to,
31:47
SPEAKER_01: fake independent, however you want to phrase it.
31:49
SPEAKER_01: So I know with with King,
31:51
you know,
31:51
SPEAKER_01: he won in 2012 as an independent open seat Olympia Snowe,
31:55
SPEAKER_01: the Republican senator announced her retirement.
31:58
SPEAKER_01: kind of late in the process.
31:59
SPEAKER_01: It was a little bit of a surprise.
32:01
SPEAKER_01: King announced he'd run as an independent.
32:03
SPEAKER_01: He was a former two-term independent governor of Maine,
32:06
SPEAKER_01: and Maine is a state that's had a number of independent governors.
32:10
So maybe the independent label is a bit more of a boost there
32:15
than in some other states.
32:18
SPEAKER_01: But he ends up functionally being the Democratic candidate,
32:21
SPEAKER_01: even though he was very careful about saying who he would caucus with.
32:25
SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
32:26
SPEAKER_00: that was really interesting,
32:27
actually,
32:27
SPEAKER_00: because Republicans have had both Senate seats in Maine for a very,
32:30
SPEAKER_00: very long time.
32:31
SPEAKER_00: I think the Susan Collins seat has had basically,
32:34
SPEAKER_00: I think,
32:35
SPEAKER_00: one Democrat ever has represented it since the 1850s.
32:38
That was when Margaret Chase Taylor or Margaret Chase Smith
32:41
lost one election.
32:43
SPEAKER_00: I think that was in Watergate.
32:45
SPEAKER_00: And that's the one time.
32:46
SPEAKER_00: So maybe Democrats were a little bit worried that,
32:48
SPEAKER_00: like,
32:49
SPEAKER_00: even though the state was pretty Democratic,
32:50
SPEAKER_00: that it would be
32:52
SPEAKER_00: But the point is they chose not to spend.
32:54
SPEAKER_00: They chose not to spend in this race.
32:56
SPEAKER_00: They didn't endorse Angus King.
32:58
SPEAKER_00: They did not endorse their candidate, but they stayed out.
33:01
SPEAKER_00: They didn't spend any money attacking Angus King.
33:03
SPEAKER_00: Republicans did.
33:05
SPEAKER_00: Republicans spent money going after Angus King, and it didn't work.
33:09
King actually,
33:10
for a lot of the campaign,
33:11
insisted that he wouldn't caucus with anyone.
33:13
SPEAKER_00: And then eventually,
33:14
SPEAKER_00: when he realized that if he wanted committee assignments,
33:16
SPEAKER_00: he would need to caucus with someone,
33:19
SPEAKER_00: Republicans kind of knew it was over.
33:20
SPEAKER_00: They did make overtures to try to get him.
33:23
SPEAKER_00: And he actually was floated switching parties ahead of 2014.
33:26
SPEAKER_00: He had endorsed Susan Collins.
33:28
I think if Republicans had gotten 58 seats somehow,
33:31
maybe he would have considered going over.
33:33
But he ultimately chose to stay with the Democrats and has been
33:35
a pretty reliable
33:37
SPEAKER_00: Democratic vote since then,
33:38
although obviously a little bit more on the moderate side of
33:41
the Democratic caucus
33:42
SPEAKER_00: because he's not a Democrat.
33:44
SPEAKER_00: But every single time Angus King has run to this day,
33:46
SPEAKER_00: he has had a Democratic challenger against him.
33:49
SPEAKER_00: This is specific to Maine.
33:50
SPEAKER_00: I don't think this works anywhere else.
33:52
It's also specific to Angus King because he was a very popular
33:54
governor and he's a
33:55
SPEAKER_00: very popular senator right now.
33:57
SPEAKER_00: If you look at the most recent election,
33:58
SPEAKER_00: I think he got around 49,
34:00
SPEAKER_00: 50% of the vote in the second congressional district,
34:03
SPEAKER_00: which voted for Trump by a very,
34:04
SPEAKER_00: very wide margin.
34:05
SPEAKER_00: That's the rural northern Maine section of the state.
34:09
SPEAKER_00: That's the more Republican section.
34:11
SPEAKER_00: I don't think you can replicate Angus King anywhere else.
34:13
But also New England just loves their independent candidates in
34:16
general,
34:16
right?
34:17
SPEAKER_00: Like they, obviously they had Angus King.
34:19
SPEAKER_00: They almost elected an independent governor in 2010.
34:22
You had Eliot Cutler as the independent nominee that allowed
34:26
Paul LePage to win.
34:27
SPEAKER_00: You had Lincoln Chafee,
34:28
SPEAKER_00: who was a former Republican,
34:29
ran for governor as an independent in Rhode Island with
34:33
Democratic endorsements and
34:34
won.
34:34
SPEAKER_00: I think he had Barack Obama's endorsement, for example.
34:38
SPEAKER_00: You had Lowell Weicker in Connecticut in the 90s.
34:41
SPEAKER_00: For some reason,
34:42
SPEAKER_00: obviously you have Bernie Sanders,
34:43
SPEAKER_00: and then you also had Rhode Island's other senator,
34:47
his name slips me,
34:47
SPEAKER_00: that switched parties after the 2000 election.
34:50
SPEAKER_00: New England just likes these guys.
34:52
SPEAKER_00: New England just likes these candidates that are independent.
34:55
And I'm honestly surprised Republicans have not made some
34:58
overtures to try and get
34:59
SPEAKER_00: their own fake candidate in like Massachusetts or something.
35:02
I'm not saying they could run Charlie Baker,
35:04
but they could probably find like a guy.
35:06
But also the party there's pretty MAGA or had been pretty MAGA
35:09
until recently.
35:10
SPEAKER_00: So that could also be an exception.
35:12
Democrats,
35:12
SPEAKER_00: a lot of these seem to be more pragmatic about their odds,
35:15
SPEAKER_00: especially in somewhere like South Dakota.
35:17
SPEAKER_00: It's a Republican plus 30 state.
35:19
I think they rightly realize they're not going to really be
35:22
winning many elections,
35:23
SPEAKER_00: and this gives them a better shot.
35:25
Whereas I think a lot of these Republican MAGA types in
35:28
Massachusetts are more than
35:29
SPEAKER_00: happy to go down with the ship.
35:31
As long as they're going to vote for the R,
35:34
and even if they lose,
35:35
they're going to vote for it.
35:36
SPEAKER_00: And I think...
35:38
SPEAKER_00: I think these have to work on a state-by-state basis, right?
35:40
SPEAKER_00: You have to have the right candidate for the state.
35:43
SPEAKER_00: You have to have the right situation for the state.
35:45
SPEAKER_00: And in Maine's case, Angus King is clearly the right candidate.
35:49
But I think the moment he retires,
35:51
will the Democrats field an actual,
35:52
legit candidate?
35:53
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
35:54
SPEAKER_00: Yes, they will.
35:55
SPEAKER_00: And there's no doubt about that.
35:59
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, no, I think you're absolutely right about that.
36:02
SPEAKER_01: To look at King's performance in 2024 in Maine,
36:07
SPEAKER_01: what's interesting is that a Democratic nominee in 2012,
36:12
2018,
36:12
SPEAKER_01: and then 2024 got about 10% to 13% of the vote each time.
36:15
SPEAKER_01: So there was a group of voters probably,
36:18
SPEAKER_01: I would imagine,
36:20
SPEAKER_01: concentrated in Southeast,
36:22
SPEAKER_01: more progressive Democratic voters who were like,
36:26
SPEAKER_01: I'm not voting for King.
36:27
SPEAKER_01: Of course, they also knew King was well ahead.
36:29
and so you know felt like they could vote for the democratic
36:32
nominee without maybe
36:34
SPEAKER_01: feeling like their vote was going to elect a Republican maybe.
36:39
But King is interesting because also his son is running for the
36:42
governor as a Democrat.
36:44
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
36:45
SPEAKER_00: Don't they also have ranked choice in Maine?
36:47
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
36:48
Even if it had gotten below 50%,
36:50
they could have still ranked King second.
36:52
SPEAKER_01: In 2024, yeah, that's absolutely true because, yeah, that all came in.
36:55
SPEAKER_01: Actually,
36:56
that came in the aftermath of that 2010 race where Eliot Cutler
37:00
did so well as an
37:01
SPEAKER_01: independent and Paul LePage.
37:03
ended up winning as a Republican with not a very large
37:06
plurality of the vote.
37:08
And although they have not been able to apply it yet to the
37:11
governor's races
37:12
because of some constitutional issues over the language in the
37:16
state constitution,
37:17
SPEAKER_01: but they are using it in their primaries in federal races.
37:20
So that will be potentially a thing in the Senate race in Maine
37:26
this time around in 2026.
37:31
SPEAKER_01: Now,
37:32
SPEAKER_01: I know you mentioned this earlier,
37:34
SPEAKER_01: but I wanted to bring it up,
37:35
SPEAKER_01: which was the just to talk about it a little bit more.
37:40
SPEAKER_01: Was this getting back sort of the Kevin Kiley example,
37:44
you know,
37:44
we started with you had Steve Poizner,
37:47
Poizner running as the for California
37:50
SPEAKER_01: Insurance Commissioner in 2018.
37:52
SPEAKER_01: Blue wave year.
37:53
SPEAKER_01: Very good Democratic year.
37:55
But he ended up getting 47 percent of the vote in California in
37:58
the statewide office.
37:59
SPEAKER_01: And if you're watching this,
38:00
you'll see there's sort of blue for the Democrats and the
38:03
Democrat candidate who
38:05
SPEAKER_01: won Ricardo Lara.
38:07
SPEAKER_01: But then the Steve Poizner's candidacy here in sort of a teal.
38:13
SPEAKER_01: And yeah,
38:14
he came very close and he did actually quite well in some
38:16
pretty heavily Democratic
38:18
SPEAKER_01: areas around the Bay Area.
38:20
Yeah,
38:20
I don't think you're going to see a Republican-adjacent
38:22
candidate crack in Marin
38:23
SPEAKER_00: County at 40% in Marin County,
38:26
crack 20%,
38:26
SPEAKER_00: but he got 41% in Marin County.
38:29
SPEAKER_00: He got, in San Mateo, he was, I think, at 43%.
38:33
SPEAKER_00: He was within 10 in Santa Clara.
38:35
SPEAKER_00: He got a ton of newspaper endorsements.
38:37
SPEAKER_00: He apparently had done a pretty good job.
38:38
And if his opponent had not been a Hispanic candidate,
38:40
I think he would have had a better shot.
38:43
If you look at his performance in,
38:44
like,
38:44
the Central Valley as a comparison,
38:46
he actually lost.
38:48
SPEAKER_00: you would expect Republicans to win.
38:50
SPEAKER_00: I think he lost to Madeira,
38:53
SPEAKER_00: which is one you would expect a Republican to win,
38:55
even in a,
38:55
SPEAKER_00: you know,
38:56
SPEAKER_00: a plus 10 Democratic election.
38:58
SPEAKER_00: This is a plus seven, or plus five, and he still lost it.
39:04
SPEAKER_00: And this is the challenge, though.
39:05
SPEAKER_00: Like, Republicans did everything they could to support Steve Poizner.
39:09
SPEAKER_00: They didn't run a candidate at all.
39:10
SPEAKER_00: There were two Democratic candidates.
39:12
Poizner had a reputation as having been apparently pretty good
39:15
at the job.
39:16
SPEAKER_00: That's why he got a lot of those newspaper endorsements in the Bay Area.
39:20
SPEAKER_00: Very credible candidate.
39:21
SPEAKER_00: He did everything right, and he still lost by 5%.
39:23
SPEAKER_00: Doesn't mean they shouldn't try it again.
39:27
SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
39:28
SPEAKER_00: I will say,
39:29
I don't know the last time a Republican has gotten within five
39:31
percentage points of
39:32
SPEAKER_00: winning a race in California.
39:33
SPEAKER_00: It was probably 2006 when they were winning,
39:36
you know,
39:36
SPEAKER_00: they won the gubernatorial race by a very,
39:38
very,
39:38
SPEAKER_00: very wide margin for the last time.
39:41
Schwarzenegger. Yeah.
39:41
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
39:42
SPEAKER_00: That, yeah, that was the same election that Steve Poizner had won.
39:45
SPEAKER_00: Um,
39:46
SPEAKER_00: So like these sorts of situations,
39:49
SPEAKER_00: like to some degree,
39:50
it also shows you the downside of running as a strategic sort
39:53
of candidate.
39:55
SPEAKER_00: I would need to check like a turnout by turnout level.
39:56
SPEAKER_00: I don't know how his vote share compared.
39:59
What I do know is that in the lockout races in California where
40:01
there is no
40:02
SPEAKER_00: Republican on the ballot,
40:03
SPEAKER_00: a lot of voters in Northern California just don't vote.
40:06
SPEAKER_00: You'll see vote shares that are 20,
40:09
25%,
40:09
just not voting for a candidate at all in either of the Senate
40:12
elections that have
40:13
SPEAKER_00: happened that have been those lockout races.
40:15
SPEAKER_00: That's one factor.
40:16
SPEAKER_00: Do Republican voters,
40:17
are they more willing to leave their ballots blank even if they
40:21
have a chance of a
40:22
SPEAKER_00: candidate they'd like better?
40:23
Clearly,
40:23
if you're a Republican,
40:25
you would prefer Steve Poizner over a Democrat.
40:29
SPEAKER_00: But in this case, it wasn't enough, even with a lot of assets.
40:33
SPEAKER_00: Again,
40:34
SPEAKER_00: if you told me a candidate won 41% of the vote in Marin County as a
40:39
SPEAKER_00: Republican-adjacent candidate,
40:40
SPEAKER_00: you would probably thought they won the state by,
40:41
SPEAKER_00: what,
40:42
20 points,
40:42
SPEAKER_00: right?
40:43
I think it's on the verge of being bluer than San Francisco at
40:48
the federal level.
40:50
SPEAKER_00: So there's clearly some strengths here, right?
40:52
SPEAKER_00: But there is weakness and the weakness is primarily it's never worked.
40:55
SPEAKER_00: The strategy is actually just never worked at all in terms of winning.
40:59
SPEAKER_00: There have been close elections,
41:00
SPEAKER_00: but there's not been any wins yet other than again in Maine,
41:04
SPEAKER_00: which doesn't really count because there was a Democrat on the ballot.
41:07
SPEAKER_00: It may work in Alaska,
41:08
for example,
41:08
SPEAKER_00: where you have a large Alaskan Native community that has,
41:11
SPEAKER_00: you know,
41:12
SPEAKER_00: sort of heterodox voting interests a lot of the time.
41:15
SPEAKER_00: It could be somewhere in, you know, the Northeast.
41:18
Maybe a Republican decides they're going to drop out of the
41:20
Senate race in,
41:21
SPEAKER_00: say,
41:22
SPEAKER_00: Massachusetts,
41:23
SPEAKER_00: and it's closer.
41:25
SPEAKER_00: The problem though is,
41:26
SPEAKER_00: again,
41:27
SPEAKER_00: when you're doing the strategy,
41:28
SPEAKER_00: right,
41:29
you're basically saying that your political party is so
41:31
atrophied that it is so
41:35
functionally useless as an organization that it's actually a
41:37
downside to have that.
41:39
SPEAKER_00: But at the same time, you need those resources to run a campaign.
41:42
SPEAKER_00: They got to come from somewhere.
41:43
A lot of Republicans have pointed out,
41:45
for example,
41:46
Act Blue donations for these candidates.
41:48
SPEAKER_00: Some of them actually started taking down their Act Blue pages,
41:50
SPEAKER_00: but if they don't have an Act Blue,
41:52
SPEAKER_00: where are they getting their money?
41:53
SPEAKER_00: A lot of the,
41:54
SPEAKER_00: a lot of,
41:55
you know,
41:55
the money for someone like a Dan Osborn comes from liberal
41:58
leaning voters in,
41:59
SPEAKER_00: say,
42:00
SPEAKER_00: New York or California or Florida.
42:02
that know that you live in a state that's safe enough where
42:05
they can afford to give
42:06
SPEAKER_00: money somewhere else,
42:07
SPEAKER_00: or know they're not going to win in that state,
42:09
SPEAKER_00: but maybe Dan Osborn can win at his.
42:11
SPEAKER_00: That's sort of the issue here.
42:12
SPEAKER_00: Like,
42:14
SPEAKER_00: it gives you some benefits,
42:15
SPEAKER_00: but the downsides of it are pretty substantial,
42:17
and it requires a lot of things to go right for it to even be
42:20
competitive.
42:22
SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
42:24
SPEAKER_01: You know, just...
42:26
SPEAKER_01: Because there are other cases.
42:28
I wanted to mention just quickly that you mentioned a couple
42:33
mayoral cases where
42:34
SPEAKER_01: former Republican Congressman Charles Djou in Honolulu lost narrowly as a
42:42
SPEAKER_01: nonpartisan candidate in,
42:44
SPEAKER_01: I think,
42:45
SPEAKER_01: 2016.
42:46
And then in 2019,
42:48
Mike Coffman,
42:49
who had been a Republican congressman and lost in the 2018
42:52
wave,
42:54
SPEAKER_01: a blue wave, he ran for mayor of Aurora, Colorado and, and, and won.
42:59
SPEAKER_01: Uh, now, you know, these were, uh, nonpartisan races.
43:04
SPEAKER_01: So maybe that helped in some respects,
43:06
SPEAKER_01: uh,
43:07
like,
43:07
you know,
43:07
SPEAKER_01: formally nonpartisan on the ballot,
43:09
SPEAKER_01: uh,
43:10
SPEAKER_01: But at the same time,
43:11
SPEAKER_01: you know,
43:12
they they managed to be very competitive or arguably more
43:15
competitive than than
43:18
maybe they would have been.
43:18
SPEAKER_01: They would have been with an R by their name and ran campaigns,
43:23
obviously,
43:23
SPEAKER_01: that to some respect,
43:26
SPEAKER_01: like in some respects,
43:27
SPEAKER_01: in terms of like the coverage of them were.
43:29
they were not trying to openly associate with their former
43:32
Republican partisan past
43:35
SPEAKER_01: in these cases.
43:36
Yeah,
43:36
to some degree,
43:36
there's less partisanship with a local race like that,
43:38
right?
43:39
SPEAKER_00: Like Aurora, Colorado is a very, very democratic city at this point.
43:42
SPEAKER_00: I think it's around,
43:43
SPEAKER_00: you know,
43:44
SPEAKER_00: probably like 60% Democratic in terms of vote share,
43:47
usually,
43:47
SPEAKER_00: you know,
43:48
SPEAKER_00: suburban Colorado or suburban Denver even,
43:51
SPEAKER_00: which is actually even more than,
43:52
SPEAKER_00: you know,
43:53
SPEAKER_00: a lot of other areas.
43:54
SPEAKER_00: And then,
43:55
SPEAKER_00: you know,
43:56
SPEAKER_00: you have Honolulu,
43:57
SPEAKER_00: which is a very Democratic city and a very Democratic state.
44:00
SPEAKER_00: Both of those were able to win.
44:02
I think Coffman won with a plurality of the vote his first time
44:04
and then got a
44:05
SPEAKER_00: majority the second time.
44:07
SPEAKER_00: It's also lower turnout.
44:08
One other race to remember that benefited from ideological
44:11
extremism is that in
44:12
SPEAKER_00: Seattle a couple years ago,
44:15
A Democrat,
44:15
SPEAKER_00: there was a nonpartisan race for city attorney,
44:18
SPEAKER_00: which is just a local office that relates,
44:20
I think,
44:20
SPEAKER_00: to like low-level criminal offenses.
44:23
SPEAKER_00: And the de facto Democratic nominee was a prison abolitionist.
44:28
The other candidate was a former Republican who was running on
44:31
not abolishing
44:32
SPEAKER_00: prisons,
44:33
SPEAKER_00: and she managed to win by I think about 5% in Seattle,
44:37
SPEAKER_00: which is about as Democratic of a city as it gets.
44:40
SPEAKER_00: If I remember,
44:41
I think she got,
44:41
SPEAKER_00: I think she got swept out recently by an actual,
44:44
you know,
44:44
Democrat.
44:44
SPEAKER_00: But in that case,
44:46
SPEAKER_00: at least like they ran,
44:48
you had a nonpartisan Republican running against a nonpartisan
44:51
extreme candidate
44:53
SPEAKER_00: and were able to flip it.
44:55
SPEAKER_00: Maybe this works in Nebraska, for example.
44:56
Nebraska is the only state in the country where they have
44:58
nonpartisan legislative races.
45:02
They have a unicameral legislature and both candidates on the
45:05
ballot are nonpartisan.
45:07
SPEAKER_00: There are no party primaries in Nebraska.
45:10
Parties endorse the candidates,
45:11
obviously,
45:12
and they roughly organize in the legislature.
45:15
But strictly speaking,
45:16
there are no political parties on the ballot in Nebraska.
45:19
SPEAKER_00: It's easier to do this sort of stuff.
45:21
SPEAKER_00: Maybe you get more of these top-two states or jungle primary like Alaska.
45:26
SPEAKER_00: That's one of the reasons Al Gross,
45:28
SPEAKER_00: he tried this a couple years ago,
45:29
SPEAKER_00: but he also had on the Democratic side,
45:32
SPEAKER_00: Mary Peltola.
45:33
SPEAKER_00: If she had run as an independent,
45:34
I think Mary Peltola might have won by a very wide margin in
45:37
that first election,
45:40
given how aggressively the two Republicans were fighting
45:44
against each other.
45:45
SPEAKER_00: Obviously there's a lot of upside to this,
45:47
but the fundamental reality I think for both parties is these
45:50
are areas that are
45:51
SPEAKER_00: unwinnable,
45:52
SPEAKER_00: right?
45:53
SPEAKER_00: Your map is limited.
45:54
SPEAKER_00: If you're a Democratic Party,
45:55
you know right off the bat there's like 20 states that are
45:58
going to have two
45:59
Republican senators forever and you're not going to be able to
46:00
get anything from
46:01
SPEAKER_00: them.
46:02
SPEAKER_00: If you're able to cut off one or two of those,
46:05
SPEAKER_00: all of a sudden your path to a majority is a lot clearer.
46:08
SPEAKER_00: It's the same on the Republican side.
46:09
SPEAKER_00: They have to do really well in a lot of swing states.
46:12
Obviously,
46:12
SPEAKER_00: it's a little bit more favorable for them at the moment,
46:14
but there are a lot of smaller Democratic states that have
46:17
these sorts of senators,
46:18
SPEAKER_00: and there are states that would never vote for a Republican senator.
46:22
SPEAKER_00: I would not be surprised if you see both parties get smarter about this,
46:25
but I also think it's going to need to actually have some
46:27
tangible results before
46:29
SPEAKER_00: parties actually say,
46:30
SPEAKER_00: we're going to do this.
46:31
Because the best you have right now is you have Dan Osborn
46:34
losing a Senate race by
46:35
SPEAKER_00: seven points,
46:36
SPEAKER_00: which,
46:37
yeah,
46:37
SPEAKER_00: that was 13 points better than Donald Trump,
46:39
SPEAKER_00: but he still lost.
46:40
SPEAKER_00: And seven points is close, but it's not that close.
46:44
There were many Senate races that year that were substantially
46:46
closer than seven points.
46:50
SPEAKER_00: Obviously, I think it's the right path for Nebraska Democrats.
46:53
SPEAKER_00: That's a really difficult state for them.
46:55
SPEAKER_00: They have a candidate that clearly had something going,
46:58
SPEAKER_00: but will it be as easy this time against Pete Ricketts,
47:00
SPEAKER_00: who was not getting caught sleeping like Deb Fischer was,
47:03
SPEAKER_00: and also who's very capable of self-funding,
47:06
and who has also won statewide by very large margins in most of
47:10
his campaigns.
47:12
We'll see.
47:12
SPEAKER_00: That's what I'm more curious about.
47:13
SPEAKER_00: If you give the strategy a second try, do voters care?
47:17
SPEAKER_00: Do voters know about it?
47:18
SPEAKER_00: Are Republicans able to make more inroads?
47:21
SPEAKER_00: Or is this actually something that could genuinely work?
47:23
SPEAKER_00: If that's the case,
47:24
SPEAKER_00: the Democrats suddenly have a pathway to compete in at least one state,
47:28
SPEAKER_00: they wouldn't otherwise be able to compete and potentially many more.
47:31
And that would really open the map for them when specifically
47:34
they have bemoaned
47:36
the lack of credible nominees in not half of the states,
47:40
but again,
47:42
closer to 35,
47:42
40 senators.
47:44
If they can cut that down a little bit,
47:46
it's a little bit easier for them.
47:48
SPEAKER_00: And even if it means they don't have a Democratic nominee,
47:52
what is the value of a Democratic nominee if they're going to
47:54
lose by 40 points
47:55
SPEAKER_00: every time?
47:57
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and I think something worth just sort of finishing on here is to
48:04
SPEAKER_01: get it maybe something kind of larger that this maybe ties into,
48:08
SPEAKER_01: or to your point,
48:10
like right now there's certain States where it's impossible
48:13
basically for one of
48:14
SPEAKER_01: the major parties to compete in or,
48:16
SPEAKER_01: or all,
48:17
SPEAKER_01: but impossible.
48:19
SPEAKER_01: Now, that's not necessarily a new thing.
48:22
In the past,
48:23
there have been situations where a party could not be
48:25
competitive.
48:26
SPEAKER_01: I will say that it does seem to be more apparent now,
48:30
SPEAKER_01: and it's even more apparent in terms of congressional districts.
48:32
There are just fewer competitive congressional districts than
48:35
there used to be,
48:36
SPEAKER_01: and there are,
48:37
to some extent,
48:37
SPEAKER_01: fewer competitive states.
48:40
SPEAKER_01: So at the same time, things are more polarized.
48:44
Partisanship is stronger in a lot of ways in terms of how
48:47
people identify.
48:49
SPEAKER_01: Your average Democratic voter is like,
48:51
SPEAKER_01: I'm never voting for a Republican,
48:52
SPEAKER_01: and your average Republican voter is I'm never voting for a Democrat.
48:55
SPEAKER_01: There are exceptions,
48:56
of course,
48:56
SPEAKER_01: but with these sort of stronger feelings,
48:59
it's harder to get some crossover votes if you're a Democrat
49:01
running in a red state
49:02
SPEAKER_01: or Republican running in a blue state,
49:05
SPEAKER_01: especially for a federal office where that lines up even more clearly.
49:08
You know,
49:09
in governor's race,
49:10
you might get a few people to break more often.
49:13
SPEAKER_01: But at the same time, you have weaker parties.
49:16
Now,
49:16
you did mention correctly that like party organizations still
49:20
exist and they're
49:21
really important.
49:21
SPEAKER_01: So like for Dan Osborn, he'd like to have the Democratic
49:24
organization in Nebraska working behind him because they're
49:27
volunteers and people
49:28
SPEAKER_01: who are committed,
49:29
SPEAKER_01: uh,
49:30
to,
49:30
you know,
49:30
SPEAKER_01: activists who will,
49:31
SPEAKER_01: who will do work on his behalf.
49:34
SPEAKER_01: But in terms of like the control the parties have, it's, it's weaker.
49:38
And the,
49:38
SPEAKER_01: the,
49:40
the current environment is such that your average voter has
49:43
like a really strong
49:44
SPEAKER_01: disdain for partisan politics.
49:46
So it's like kind of this ironic situation where people are
49:48
more partisan in terms
49:49
SPEAKER_01: of their,
49:50
SPEAKER_01: their voting behavior.
49:53
but they're really pissed off at like the political environment
49:56
and don't like like
49:57
SPEAKER_01: partisanship.
49:58
SPEAKER_01: And so they're more likely to identify as independent.
50:01
SPEAKER_01: Even if they do lean,
50:02
SPEAKER_01: tend to lean,
50:03
SPEAKER_01: most independents lean toward one party or the other still,
50:05
SPEAKER_01: and they usually vote for that party.
50:09
SPEAKER_01: So it's kind of this,
50:10
SPEAKER_01: I think that that has also made this a path where it's like,
50:13
SPEAKER_01: well,
50:14
SPEAKER_01: given the current polarization of things,
50:16
SPEAKER_01: Democrats are not going to win in a statewide race in Nebraska,
50:19
SPEAKER_01: except in the most incredibly favorable circumstances.
50:23
SPEAKER_01: But people also are looking for independence.
50:25
SPEAKER_01: They like hearing that people are independent.
50:28
SPEAKER_01: Does it mean they're absolutely going to vote for that candidate?
50:30
SPEAKER_01: Well, Osborn found out in 2024.
50:31
SPEAKER_01: No, but it could get closer.
50:35
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
50:36
SPEAKER_00: And that's the interesting thing.
50:38
In my opinion,
50:38
a lot of this boils down more to negative polarization than it
50:40
is to political
50:42
SPEAKER_00: party polarization,
50:43
SPEAKER_00: right?
50:44
SPEAKER_02: Yes.
50:45
SPEAKER_00: If you're a right of center voter,
50:47
SPEAKER_00: you live in a red state,
50:49
SPEAKER_00: you have a Republican governor,
50:51
SPEAKER_00: Republican government,
50:52
SPEAKER_00: maybe you don't approve of everything they're doing.
50:54
But do you approve of them more than you approve of the
50:57
Democratic candidates
50:58
SPEAKER_00: running on the other side?
51:00
SPEAKER_00: That's the case.
51:01
SPEAKER_00: Oregon's the exact opposite direction.
51:03
SPEAKER_00: For basically the last decade,
51:05
SPEAKER_00: their governors have been very,
51:07
very,
51:07
SPEAKER_00: very unpopular in Oregon,
51:09
SPEAKER_00: usually towards the bottom of popularity.
51:12
But they also have kept voting for Democratic governors every
51:16
single time.
51:17
SPEAKER_00: They've not gotten more than 52% of the vote this century,
51:20
but Republicans have also not won a gubernatorial race in
51:23
Oregon since the 80s.
51:25
SPEAKER_00: Would there be a benefit,
51:26
SPEAKER_00: for example,
51:27
SPEAKER_00: there for Republicans saying,
51:28
look,
51:28
SPEAKER_00: we,
51:29
SPEAKER_00: our floor is 45%.
51:31
SPEAKER_00: We can't win.
51:33
But maybe there's this Democratic state senator,
51:35
you know,
51:35
who ran last time.
51:37
SPEAKER_00: Maybe if they had dropped out and endorsed her,
51:39
SPEAKER_00: she would have been able to run as an independent conservative leaning,
51:42
SPEAKER_00: you know,
51:43
SPEAKER_00: state senator from an outlying area and provide a stronger challenge to,
51:48
SPEAKER_00: you know,
51:49
I think it was Tina Kotek who was the nominee that time and
51:52
who's turned out to be
51:53
SPEAKER_00: a fairly unpopular governor.
51:54
SPEAKER_00: We're probably going to see the same lesson play out again this cycle.
51:58
SPEAKER_00: Like to some degree,
51:59
voters are going to have to express their dissatisfaction with
52:01
their government in
52:02
SPEAKER_00: one way,
52:03
but they're not going to do it in a matter where it means
52:05
they're voting for
52:06
SPEAKER_00: something they really,
52:07
SPEAKER_00: really don't like.
52:08
SPEAKER_00: And I think if there's anything that's been shown,
52:09
SPEAKER_00: especially for Democrats in a lot of Red America,
52:11
SPEAKER_00: it's the party name is worth nothing.
52:17
SPEAKER_00: It's worth next to nothing.
52:18
SPEAKER_00: There's no,
52:19
SPEAKER_00: you know,
52:20
SPEAKER_00: in Nebraska,
52:21
SPEAKER_00: you say you're a Democrat running for Senate in Nebraska,
52:24
SPEAKER_00: that's not going to get you anywhere.
52:25
You say you're an independent running for Senate in Nebraska,
52:27
it clearly gets you closer.
52:28
SPEAKER_00: Thank you.
52:30
SPEAKER_00: Again, the problem is fundamentally, we're a two-party system, right?
52:33
SPEAKER_00: We've been a two-party system for almost the majority,
52:37
SPEAKER_00: not almost the majority,
52:38
SPEAKER_00: almost the entirety of American history.
52:39
SPEAKER_00: There's never really been a concerted third-party movement that's pressed
52:43
SPEAKER_00: considerable pressure on both parties for an extended period of time.
52:47
SPEAKER_00: Go back to the Federalists,
52:48
SPEAKER_00: the anti-Federalists,
52:50
SPEAKER_00: the Whigs and the Democrats,
52:52
SPEAKER_00: the Democrats and the Republicans since then.
52:56
SPEAKER_00: People clearly know they have two choices.
52:58
SPEAKER_00: One of them lines up one way, one of them the other.
53:01
I think the independent thing has clearly shown that to some
53:04
degree,
53:04
a lot of it is named.
53:06
SPEAKER_00: Because Dan Osborn,
53:07
SPEAKER_00: he did have a different view on immigration,
53:10
SPEAKER_00: but on most of his other issues,
53:11
SPEAKER_00: he was pretty standard,
53:12
SPEAKER_00: you know,
53:13
SPEAKER_00: left of center.
53:14
SPEAKER_00: He ran on some specific issues for Nebraska,
53:17
ran on immigration,
53:17
SPEAKER_00: but everything else,
53:18
he was pretty much in line with what you would expect of like
53:20
Jon Tester or
53:21
SPEAKER_00: Sherrod Brown or,
53:23
you know,
53:23
SPEAKER_00: Joe Manchin to have said,
53:25
right?
53:25
SPEAKER_00: Pretty in line with the Democratic Party.
53:28
SPEAKER_00: I think at some point,
53:30
SPEAKER_00: you might see things shift a little bit.
53:32
SPEAKER_00: Maybe it'll be a really bad cycle.
53:33
SPEAKER_00: Maybe, you know, we're looking for like a D plus eight wave.
53:36
Maybe that's what you really need to get Dan Osborn across the
53:38
line because last
53:39
SPEAKER_00: time it was Republicans won the popular vote by what,
53:41
two,
53:41
SPEAKER_00: three points nationally.
53:43
If it's a D plus eight wave,
53:44
that's an 11 point swing in the other direction.
53:46
SPEAKER_00: Maybe that's enough to get Osborn across the line.
53:49
And that may be where you have the value of these sorts of ones
53:52
is that if they
53:53
SPEAKER_00: somehow don't win,
53:55
SPEAKER_00: Because an 11-point swing is not enough in a vacuum to win Alaska.
53:59
SPEAKER_00: It's not enough in a vacuum to flip Iowa.
54:02
SPEAKER_00: It's not enough in a vacuum to flip Texas.
54:03
SPEAKER_00: Those are states that are wider by a certain margin.
54:06
But if you drop that baseline of we need to overperform by 20
54:08
points to we need to
54:09
SPEAKER_00: overperform by 8 points,
54:12
SPEAKER_00: and you have a year where you're overperforming by 8 points nationally,
54:15
SPEAKER_00: all of a sudden that becomes a lot more viable,
54:17
SPEAKER_00: right?
54:19
SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
54:20
SPEAKER_01: I think that's –
54:24
a very good point and a reason why we're probably going to
54:26
continue to see this.
54:28
SPEAKER_01: We've seen a lot of Democrats doing it,
54:30
SPEAKER_01: obviously with Kiley running and maybe some past examples in California,
54:34
give it again,
54:34
SPEAKER_01: a lot comes back to the state by state circumstances.
54:37
SPEAKER_01: You know,
54:38
things like the top-two primary in California might make this a
54:40
more attractive
54:41
SPEAKER_01: option for Republicans at the same time you do have,
54:45
you know,
54:45
SPEAKER_01: you brought up the Oregon example.
54:47
SPEAKER_01: And I, and,
54:49
Just Betsy Johnson was the was the independent who was running
54:52
as a former Democrat.
54:54
SPEAKER_01: You have to have the party that's losing also be willing to to say,
54:59
fine,
54:59
SPEAKER_01: we'll back this independent,
55:00
SPEAKER_01: even if we don't agree with them on everything,
55:02
SPEAKER_01: because.
55:04
SPEAKER_01: And that's hard because sometimes the parties are really,
55:06
SPEAKER_01: you know,
55:07
SPEAKER_01: they're they're very committed to their view,
55:09
you know,
55:09
SPEAKER_01: their positions and what they believe in.
55:12
SPEAKER_01: And they aren't willing.
55:13
And that's a big question with maybe that Montana race or the
55:17
South Dakota race.
55:18
SPEAKER_01: You know,
55:19
those are only interesting if the Democratic candidate is not
55:22
if there's no
55:23
SPEAKER_01: Democrat on the ballot.
55:24
But if there is a Democrat on the ballot and they're splitting
55:25
the vote three
55:26
SPEAKER_01: different ways,
55:27
SPEAKER_01: then the Republican is not going to have trouble winning.
55:30
SPEAKER_01: So it's that's like another big question of this.
55:34
And then that gets back to the idea of just like,
55:35
OK,
55:36
well,
55:36
how important is the party level?
55:37
Well,
55:37
SPEAKER_01: it's important to some people,
55:39
SPEAKER_01: but are they sort of strategically minded enough to let that go?
55:44
SPEAKER_01: And that's that's really a huge question.
55:46
SPEAKER_01: I think for Democrats,
55:47
SPEAKER_00: at least,
55:48
there's been a clear willingness on the level of the party
55:50
establishment to
55:51
SPEAKER_00: consider doing this,
55:52
SPEAKER_00: right?
55:53
SPEAKER_00: Rank and file is another thing.
55:55
SPEAKER_00: Obviously, each state has their own party.
55:57
SPEAKER_00: Some of them are a lot different than others.
55:58
SPEAKER_00: Some of them have more establishment control,
56:00
SPEAKER_00: and some of them...
56:01
One phenomenon you see in a lot of these states where one party
56:04
absolutely
56:05
SPEAKER_00: dominates is the other party is not moderate,
56:08
right?
56:08
The other party actually is just stuck with,
56:11
like,
56:11
ideologically core voters.
56:14
SPEAKER_00: So if you go to,
56:15
SPEAKER_00: like I mentioned Massachusetts again,
56:17
SPEAKER_00: you go to Massachusetts,
56:18
SPEAKER_00: you would expect the Republican base there because it's a liberal state.
56:21
SPEAKER_00: You'd expect that base to be, you know, more moderate, right?
56:24
No.
56:24
No,
56:24
the base there is actually,
56:25
they're very conservative because that's all it is up there.
56:29
SPEAKER_00: There's like 9% of voters there are registered Republicans, right?
56:33
And then there's,
56:33
you know,
56:34
40% Democrats and however percentage independents.
56:37
SPEAKER_00: Republicans have a lot of independents.
56:39
SPEAKER_01: Most of those independents tend to vote Democratic.
56:41
Correct.
56:41
SPEAKER_00: So that's how you get through having their former party chair.
56:44
SPEAKER_00: There was very, very, very conservative.
56:46
SPEAKER_00: I think it was Geoff Diehl.
56:48
SPEAKER_00: It is either Geoff Diehl or someone else.
56:49
SPEAKER_01: We spell our names the same way, so I recognize his name.
56:54
Yeah,
56:54
SPEAKER_00: but when he ran for Senate,
56:56
SPEAKER_00: he ran on a MAGA platform and he lost by 30 points or whatever.
57:01
Would the MAGA wing of the Republican Marty in Massachusetts be
57:04
willing to say,
57:05
no,
57:05
we're going to actually not endorse the MAGA candidate that
57:08
agrees with us on
57:09
everything.
57:09
We're going to endorse this guy who's like liberal on a bunch
57:12
of things and is
57:13
SPEAKER_00: going to vote with us on financial issues sometimes.
57:16
SPEAKER_00: Like,
57:18
Practically,
57:18
SPEAKER_00: if you're looking at this pragmatically,
57:20
yeah,
57:20
SPEAKER_00: you'd think that'd be a no-brainer,
57:22
SPEAKER_00: but if you're a,
57:23
you know,
57:23
SPEAKER_00: a partisan voter in a state that really doesn't like your party,
57:27
SPEAKER_00: to some degree there's even negative polarization against that,
57:30
SPEAKER_00: the idea of,
57:31
SPEAKER_00: you know,
57:32
SPEAKER_00: conceding ground,
57:33
right?
57:33
SPEAKER_00: You're the permanent minority,
57:35
SPEAKER_00: but there is some sort of glory in being,
57:37
you know,
57:37
SPEAKER_00: fighting against an unwinnable battle.
57:40
Right?
57:40
SPEAKER_00: I mean, you even see this in West Virginia.
57:42
I think they nominated Paula Jean Swearengin for Senate a
57:45
couple cycles ago as a
57:46
SPEAKER_00: super duper progressive candidate.
57:48
SPEAKER_01: They got no chance.
57:49
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, they have no chance.
57:50
SPEAKER_00: So like, why not nominate a super duper progressive candidate?
57:53
We're not going to win anyway,
57:54
so might as well put someone we agree with.
57:56
SPEAKER_00: That's the other hurdle you can deal with.
57:58
And I think there's a lot of these state parties that are going
58:00
to be problems.
58:01
SPEAKER_00: Like for maybe the Midwest,
58:02
SPEAKER_00: it's maybe a bit more of a bitter pill,
58:04
SPEAKER_00: easier pill to swallow because they used to be competitive,
58:06
SPEAKER_00: right?
58:07
The Dakotas had Democratic senators as recently as,
58:10
you know,
58:10
20 years ago.
58:11
I think actually all of their senators had been Democratic at
58:14
some point in the last 30 years.
58:17
SPEAKER_00: South Dakota had a Democratic delegation for a while.
58:22
SPEAKER_00: These places have a little bit more familiarity with winning,
58:24
and there's a lot of people who in their lifetime would like to
58:26
win again.
58:27
Whereas you have somewhere like Massachusetts,
58:30
there's no memory in their lifetime of winning.
58:32
The one win was a special election for the Senate when
58:35
President Obama was very,
58:36
SPEAKER_00: very unpopular,
58:37
SPEAKER_00: and then immediately lost the following term.
58:41
SPEAKER_00: That's kind of the struggle, right?
58:44
SPEAKER_00: And that's one of the fundamental limiters of the strategy.
58:46
SPEAKER_00: You have to be willing to eat your pride,
58:47
SPEAKER_00: say,
58:48
we can't win,
58:48
SPEAKER_00: we're going to nominate someone who,
58:49
SPEAKER_00: we're going to side with someone who can and hope for the best.
58:53
SPEAKER_00: And when that's not even working,
58:55
SPEAKER_00: like it is working in the sense that it's closer,
58:57
SPEAKER_00: but is it resulting in wins?
58:59
SPEAKER_00: Right?
59:00
Like close,
59:01
in elections,
59:01
close is nice,
59:02
but realistically close only counts in horseshoes.
59:05
SPEAKER_00: Nobody cares if you lose by one point or if you lose by 30.
59:07
SPEAKER_00: It's still a loss.
59:08
I think we're going to need to actually see some of these guys
59:11
win races before you
59:12
SPEAKER_00: see some of these state parties look at this and say,
59:15
SPEAKER_00: you know,
59:16
SPEAKER_00: we can actually do this.
59:17
Because when your best example is Evan McMullin losing in Utah
59:20
by 11 and Dan
59:21
SPEAKER_00: Osborn losing by seven,
59:24
that's great if you're a Democrat who wants to troll
59:26
Republicans into spending
59:28
money.
59:28
SPEAKER_00: Is it objectively great in your odds of winning the Senate?
59:32
SPEAKER_00: Not really.
59:33
SPEAKER_00: You kind of need to win the districts.
59:36
SPEAKER_00: You win these elections.
59:37
SPEAKER_00: I'll be very curious about Kiley.
59:39
SPEAKER_00: Kiley, though, is such an obvious case of like mid-cycle.
59:43
I'm a Republican.
59:43
I'm only switching as independent because I got redistricted
59:45
out of my district,
59:47
SPEAKER_00: and it's a clear ploy to try to win votes.
59:49
SPEAKER_00: That one I'm going to be really interested in seeing.
59:52
SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
59:53
SPEAKER_01: It'll be a fascinating test case.
59:56
SPEAKER_01: And if it works for them, it could inspire imitators.
1:00:00
SPEAKER_01: And if it doesn't work,
1:00:01
it'll be interesting to see how much it may have shaved down
1:00:06
the margins in a race
1:00:08
SPEAKER_01: that might not otherwise have been all that competitive.
1:00:10
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
1:00:12
SPEAKER_01: Well, Eric, hey, thanks so much for joining me to talk about this.
1:00:15
SPEAKER_01: Obviously, it's a rich topic, a lot of interesting campaigns.
1:00:21
SPEAKER_01: And some of them,
1:00:22
SPEAKER_01: in some cases,
1:00:23
SPEAKER_01: were Senate races we probably would never have talked about,
1:00:25
SPEAKER_01: for instance.
1:00:27
Like South Dakota,
1:00:27
probably weren't going to talk about that on this podcast.
1:00:30
But here we are.
1:00:30
SPEAKER_01: We actually managed to talk about this.
1:00:31
SPEAKER_01: Idaho, definitely not.
1:00:33
SPEAKER_01: Idaho, definitely not.
1:00:34
SPEAKER_01: We did give it a brief mention with the independent running there.
1:00:38
SPEAKER_01: So again, it's been a lot of fun going over this with you.
1:00:43
SPEAKER_01: There'll be a lot more to watch with this as the 2026 campaign proceeds.
1:00:48
SPEAKER_01: But Eric Cunningham, elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ.
1:00:52
SPEAKER_01: Thank you so much for joining me.
1:00:53
I've been Geoffrey Skelley,
1:00:55
the chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ.
1:00:58
And make sure to join us as we continue to cover what's
1:01:01
happening in primaries and
1:01:03
SPEAKER_01: looking ahead to the 2026 general election.
1:01:05
SPEAKER_01: So again, Eric, thanks for joining me.
1:01:09
SPEAKER_02: Thank you.